prediction
Jiang forecasts very low voter turnout in November 2024 because voters will see the system as corrupt and give up.
Topic brief
A Jiang Lens evidence brief for this topic, built from source tags, transcript matches, and linked source refs.
2024 Election
Jiang says that if Trump does not pick Haley or loses in November, the proper response is to return to the analysis and change the model.
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Key Notes
prediction
Jiang predicts that the civil war will begin with Trump's reelection because Trump uniquely embodies the culture war.
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prediction
Jiang predicts that Trump will win the November 2024 election and pick Nikki Haley as his vice president.
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prediction
Jiang predicts that if Trump picks Haley in August, he will win, while also saying the pick is Trump's best strategic move rather than a certainty.
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prediction
Jiang concludes that Trump is likely to win because Biden's coalition will not hold under inflation, illegal immigration, Gaza, and Ukraine, and that Haley would seal the victory by turning suburbs strongly toward Trump.
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diagnosis
Jiang argues that 2024 is different because voters have now seen both Trump and Biden in office and may stay home if they think both are bad.
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diagnosis
Jiang says Biden has no strategy going forward because he won in 2020 without one and is too old to change who he is.
model
Jiang says that if Trump does not pick Haley or loses in November, the proper response is to return to the analysis and change the model.
Timestamped Evidence
Transcript
"Then the most likely outcome is a civil war. Okay? Does that make sense? So, any questions so far? Yeah. So, Celine asked a..."
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"So, no one cares who's president anymore. And that's going to help Trump in November. Okay? Any more questions before I move on? Okay...."
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"-educated individuals who are wealthy, okay? But at the same time, there are many University who do not like what's going on. So there's..."
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"Okay, so let's begin class. And today we are discussing whether or not Trump will win in November. And I'm making the prediction that..."
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"he wins so if he picks Nikki Haley in August he will win okay I'm not completely sure that it will pick Nikki Haley..."
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"So she comes across as an extremely popular exception figure, okay? So this doesn't make sense, okay? So the conclusion is that given the..."
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"The problem with this idea is, okay, in 2020, the American people had four years of Trump, and they know he sucks. The problem..."
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"So why can't the Senate? Why can't something happen this year, right? And unfortunately, because Biden is so old, he's 81, he doesn't have..."
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"Okay? So you know what? It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, okay? Possibly someone named J.D. Vance, okay? The only..."
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"So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the..."
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"And, um, this suggests that if in November Trump wins a second term, it is very possible that Trump will declare war on Iran...."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
Reading
A June 2024 lecture arguing that the next American civil war will not repeat 1861.
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A dated May 2024 election model: Biden's 2020 coalition weakens, the suburbs become the hinge, and Trump can win by turning Nikki Haley from enemy into evidence that he has changed.
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A source-grounded reading of the episode's central claim: Saudi Arabia's rivalry with Iran moved from religion and oil into proxy war, exposed the kingdom's fragile infrastructure, and made a Trump-led America the weapon Saudi...
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Related Topics
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