prediction
Jiang predicts that Gaza protests will cause some young voters to sit out rather than vote for Biden, even if they will not vote for Trump.
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Topic brief
A Jiang Lens evidence brief for this topic, built from source tags, transcript matches, and linked source refs.
Turnout
Jiang predicts that Gaza protests will cause some young voters to sit out rather than vote for Biden, even if they will not vote for Trump.
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Key Notes
diagnosis
Jiang argues that 2024 is different because voters have now seen both Trump and Biden in office and may stay home if they think both are bad.
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prediction
Jiang predicts that the Republican coalition of rural voters, conservatives, Christians, and white voters will feel more strongly about Trump than the Democratic coalition feels about Biden.
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Timestamped Evidence
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"So many Americans see this as just bad leadership, okay? So that's black people. And recent polls show that actually Biden's lead with black..."
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"The problem with this idea is, okay, in 2020, the American people had four years of Trump, and they know he sucks. The problem..."
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"...the lowest rate of violence in America. One of the lowest turnout. One of the lowest turnouts of voters in American history because people..."
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"...very special year in American politics because it was the largest turnout in American history since about 1900. Okay, so 74 million people voted..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
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A dated May 2024 election model: Biden's 2020 coalition weakens, the suburbs become the hinge, and Trump can win by turning Nikki Haley from enemy into evidence that he has changed.
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Related Topics
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