prediction
Jiang forecasts very low voter turnout in November 2024 because voters will see the system as corrupt and give up.
Topic brief
A Jiang Lens evidence brief for this topic, built from source tags, transcript matches, and linked source refs.
Biden
Jiang argues that suburban voters tend to prefer status quo, conservative, unifying leadership, which made Biden's steady establishment image attractive in 2020.
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Key Notes
evidence
Jiang frames Biden's 2020 victory as numerically large in popular votes but structurally narrow because the Electoral College margin could be described as roughly 65,000 key-state votes.
diagnosis
Jiang argues that older Black voters supported Biden in 2020 partly from loyalty to Obama's vice president, but that by 2024 the debt has been paid and Biden must answer what he has done for them.
diagnosis
Jiang argues that inflation, illegal immigration, and Ukraine aid damage Biden among Black and poorer voters by lowering living standards and making Biden look like a bad leader.
prediction
Jiang predicts that Gaza protests will cause some young voters to sit out rather than vote for Biden, even if they will not vote for Trump.
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model
Jiang argues that suburban voters tend to prefer status quo, conservative, unifying leadership, which made Biden's steady establishment image attractive in 2020.
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model
Jiang argues that Harris attacking Biden in the 2019 debate and then becoming his running mate created a redemption story that made Biden look forgiving, listening, team-oriented, and empathetic.
model
Jiang describes 'doesn't hold grudges,' 'listens,' 'team player,' and 'empathy' as the anti-Trump traits that helped move suburban women toward Biden.
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Timestamped Evidence
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"...they believed that Trump was a threat to democracy. And with Biden, people recognize that, no, it's all corrupt. Just burn the system down...."
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"So, no one cares who's president anymore. And that's going to help Trump in November. Okay? Any more questions before I move on? Okay...."
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"...make you the argument today. Okay, so let's first discuss why Biden won in 2020 and why it's possible that he may lose this..."
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"...highly contested American elections. So, let's understand the coalition that brought Biden into the White House, okay? So, the first major component of this..."
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"...is paid off, right? So they won't feel so loyal to Biden, okay? Also in 2020, there's something called a George Floyd protest. So..."
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"And in fact, you can make the argument that Biden has really hurt the standard of living of black people, why? Because inflation has..."
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"...okay? So that's black people. And recent polls show that actually Biden's lead with black people is not as much as it was in..."
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"...that a leader, the president, should be a uniter, right? And Biden came across as extremely steady, as very establishment. As someone who could..."
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"...lot of people who were vying for the nomination, including Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. In June 2019, there was the first Democratic debate,..."
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"...got my opportunity to succeed, okay? So basically, she was calling Biden a racist. And at that point, everyone thought that, okay, well, if..."
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"...of this narrative, women, especially women in the suburbs, went for Biden, okay? Previously they had gone for Trump, now they went for Biden,..."
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"...answer is this. If you look at 2020, everyone thought that Biden could not get the nomination. Okay? Why? Because he lacks charisma. Nobody..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
Reading
A June 2024 lecture arguing that the next American civil war will not repeat 1861.
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A dated May 2024 election model: Biden's 2020 coalition weakens, the suburbs become the hinge, and Trump can win by turning Nikki Haley from enemy into evidence that he has changed.
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Related Topics
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