Glossary
A voter coalition made from Black voters, young voters, college-educated voters, women, and suburban voters, each with a different 2020 motivation and 2024 vulnerability.
Topic brief
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Biden coalition
A voter coalition made from Black voters, young voters, college-educated voters, women, and suburban voters, each with a different 2020 motivation and 2024 vulnerability.
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Key Notes
prediction
Jiang concludes that Trump is likely to win because Biden's coalition will not hold under inflation, illegal immigration, Gaza, and Ukraine, and that Haley would seal the victory by turning suburbs strongly toward Trump.
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Timestamped Evidence
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"...the case in highly contested American elections. So, let's understand the coalition that brought Biden into the White House, okay? So, the first major..."
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"That's a flip of 2 million voters, okay? So in elections, usually it's a suburban vote that determines the election, because the swing voters...."
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"...seems very likely Trump will win in 2024, okay? Because the Biden coalition will not hold together. Because of inflation. Illegalization. Illegal immigration. What's..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
Reading
A dated May 2024 election model: Biden's 2020 coalition weakens, the suburbs become the hinge, and Trump can win by turning Nikki Haley from enemy into evidence that he has changed.
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