model
He says failed predictions require revising the predictions and analysis rather than keeping the model fixed.
Topic brief
A Jiang Lens evidence brief for this topic, built from source tags, transcript matches, and linked source refs.
Model revision
A transcript-matched topic anchored by excerpts such as "Oh, yeah. Great question. Sorry. So I've studied a lot of history and I felt that there was a common flaw to history being..."
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Topic Scope And Freshness
A transcript-matched topic anchored by excerpts such as "Oh, yeah. Great question. Sorry. So I've studied a lot of history and I felt that there was a common flaw to history being..."
Key Notes
model
Jiang says that if Trump does not pick Haley or loses in November, the proper response is to return to the analysis and change the model.
model
He defines Predictive History as building theories of history that let him forecast how the world will progress and then correcting the model when the forecasts fail.
Timestamped Evidence
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"Oh, yeah. Great question. Sorry. So I've studied a lot of history and I felt that there was a common flaw to history being..."
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"And I feel that if you do it this way, then history is much more accessible. It's much more clear, and it's much more..."
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"Okay. So, Sally asked the question, like, how do you construct this? This AI. Okay? And so, for this AI to be valid, okay,..."
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"If they're not correct, what you have to do is go away. You have to change these predictions, okay? And analysis. Okay? Does that..."
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"Okay? So you know what? It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, okay? Possibly someone named J.D. Vance, okay? The only..."
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"So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
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Jiang defines Predictive History as a falsifiable historical method, then uses the interview to argue that Soleimani's assassination made a later U.S.-Iran war structurally legible, that Iran wins by luring America into ground commitment,...
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The final class turns collapse into an assignment: build a democratic psychohistory that can model war, correct history, answer great-man edge cases, and still preserve the human heart that wants to love, create, learn,...
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A dated May 2024 election model: Biden's 2020 coalition weakens, the suburbs become the hinge, and Trump can win by turning Nikki Haley from enemy into evidence that he has changed.
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Related Topics
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