Today we will be discussing the second American Civil War. So I want to make the argument that a conflict is very likely and so we'll be discussing why it's likely, how this war will benefit itself, and what will happen after this war. So the first thing to know about America is that it is a country that enjoys violence. You can say that Americans are addicted to violence. For example, America has 434 guns, sorry 434 million guns. That's 1.3 guns for every one person and the guns they have a lot of them are are like semi -machine guns, okay? So it's a very gun -obsessed society. Not only that, but they believe that gun ownership is their sacred right as Americans. So the Second Amendment of the Constitution is that every American has the right to bear arms. Then there's American football. Have you guys seen American football? Where guys just bang at each other, okay?
Geo-Strategy #11: The Second American Civil War
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It is an extremely violent sport. In fact, America is really the only country that plays this sport, and Americans love football. The Super Bowl is the most watched TV event every year. And the game, the game of football, causes a lot of psychological, psychological injuries, okay? So there are a lot of football players who at age 30, they either commit suicide or they will kill someone because their brains have been destroyed by the game, okay? It is an extremely violent sport, and even though it is barbaric, Americans love it. Americans also worship their history of wars, okay? They believe that fighting war, it's noble and it's sacred. Okay, so second thing to know, about America is that it has a long history of fighting wars. In fact, you can make the argument that America has been continuously at war since its founding in 1776, okay? Even before that. So the first major war that America fought, of course, was the Revolution, right?
1776, War of Independence. And the reality is that, The reality is that, Americans believed this war was sacred. And it was a revolution in human affairs. But if you actually look at the history of this war, you'll discover that the Americans didn't really fight this war for a good reason. They fought this war because the British were taxing them. But if you think about it, well, the British were providing defense. They were providing an army, right? So the British had a very good reason to tax the Americans. But the Americans didn't really like this, so they rebelled, okay? And the rebellion was actually the first American Civil War, because there were actually a lot of Americans who wanted to remain in the Union. And so these loyalists, a lot of them were terrorized by extremists who wanted independence, okay? So that is the American Revolution. But after the American Revolution, the Americans embarked on something called Manifest Destiny.
And the idea of Manifest Destiny is that it is God's will that America controls all of the Americas, okay? North America and South America. So the Americans embarked on a violent colonization of all lands, okay? Killing many natives and other peoples. Okay, around these little villages, control America, okay? Manifest Destiny. And then this led to, from 1861 to 1865, the American Civil War, which killed 800,000 a million Americans, okay? But it was the deadliest war that America ever fought, okay? Much more so than World War II and World War I. In fact, more people have died in this war than in World War I and World War II combined, okay? for America. And we looked at the reason for the Civil War. Again, you're like, they didn't actually have to fight this war. So at the founding of the nation, America was divided into North and South.
And the difference is that the North was very industrial and the South was agricultural. And because the economies were different, the way they instructed their politics and culture or society were different. So the North believed in free labor, meaning that you were free to do any job you want and employers were free to hire anyone they wanted. And this system is obviously much more efficient, because it's a much better use of manpower and so this caused the North to promote Hawa risking their lives and it was a much easier approach for North to and become very wealthy and expanded, okay? So at the start of the Civil War in 1861, the North had a population of 22 million people, okay? Very wealthy, very powerful. The South was an agricultural, was an agricultural -based economy, and therefore it had to rely on slave labor, all right? And even though slave labor made wealthy people very prosperous, it was not good for the economy as a whole, okay?
It was an inefficient use of manpower. And at the start of the war, they only had about nine million people, okay? But what's important to remember is that the North was an industrial -based economy. The South was an agricultural -based economy. So in terms of weapons manufacturing, in terms of logistics, in terms of organization, the North had a huge advantage over the South, all right? Now, why did they fight the war? And the standard explanation is because the North wanted to get rid of the evil of slavery. And that's not true, that's not what happened. So at the beginning of the founding of the nation, the Constitution permitted slavery, okay? Slavery was legal. And the Constitution allowed slavery. So the South were free to have as many slaves as they want. The North didn't need slaves because it was an industrial -based economy.
The problem was the nation was expanding westwards, okay? The nation was expanding west. And they were adding more states into the Union. And the more states there are, they can send senators and representatives to Washington, D.C., okay? And the fear was that, if, you know, if the United States, if these Western states were pro -slavery, then that would tip the balance in favor of the pro -slavery cap. But if the reverse were true, if the Western states were anti -slavery, then the South would be marginalized, okay? So for decades, there was this fierce debate as to how to handle these Western states, which were admitted into the Union one by one, okay? And the solution, what they call the Missouri Compromise, is that for every one state that came in as pro -slavery, the other state, the next state, had to be anti -slavery, okay, does that make sense? To maintain the balance.
But the problem, of course, is that a lot of these Western states had their own opinions. So the Western, so some of these Western states, for example, Kansas, they had their own opinions. But the problem was the United States would want to be anti -slavery, okay? So for decades, this was a huge issue politically in America, which divided the nation. The turning point was in 1860, when Abraham Lincoln was elected president of the United States. And Lincoln was radically anti -slavery. He believed that slavery was evil, and had to be abolished at some point. The rest of the world abolished slavery. Why is it in America there are so many slaves? So that was Lincoln's agenda. But Lincoln was also a lawyer and he believed that the South legally had a right to slavery. But over time what we can do is limit slavery in the West and therefore over time, in maybe a hundred years time, slavery would naturally cease to exist.
That was Lincoln's plan. Now the South did not like this plan and they were afraid of what Lincoln might really do as president so they declared independence from the United States. They basically succeeded from the Union. And Lincoln responds in this way, They invaded the South. So basically the Civil War was a battle over how much power the federal government had. So from the perspective of the South, they were fighting the war for their right to freely express their political views. And the North was fighting to maintain the Union. Slavery was not the main issue. Baptism is not the main issue. Lincoln himself said that if I could end the war without freeing any slaves, I would do so. Slavery was not the main issue. Keeping the Union intact was the main issue, okay? Does that make sense? But again um they could have chosen
to Just to keep the Union intact, that was the main issue. Does that make sense? Okay so but again, they could have chosen to Durham politically compromise. They could have had the discussions, right? They could have even broke apart, but they chose to fight a gruesome civil war. So the third thing you need to know about America is that America resolves conflicts through violence. It doesn't really have a history of diplomacy. It has a history of war making, okay? That's how America usually resolves issues. So given this history, now let's look at the conflicts in America today to see how serious the division is. And the reality is that today is actually very, very serious. Far more so than in 1861 when they fought the first civil war, okay? So let's look at the divisions. The first major division is basically the Civil War. The Civil War is a civil war that took place in the United States between the haves and the have -nots, okay?
So inequality and debt. So the wealthy, the top 1%, not only do they control most of the wealth in America, but they also control what we call the means of production, meaning that if new money comes into the system, they will seize it, okay? So basically, the top 1 % have a monopoly over the rest of the world. They have a monopoly over wealth production. And the way they make most of their money is actually through collecting debt, okay? By exploiting other people. And this is what we call a rentier economy, okay? Now, what exaggerates, makes the situation worse, are the culture wars. So America is divided between left and right. And this division actually goes back to the very founding of America in the 16th century. So the first division is the Civil War. The Civil War is a civil war that took place in the United States between the haves and the have -nots, okay?
And this division actually goes back to the very founding of America in the 16th century. The Civil War is a civil war that took place in the United States between the haves and have -nots, okay? And this division actually goes back to the early 1900s, okay? So in America, in its founding, there were two opposing visions or strands, okay? The first strand are people who came to America to build a kingdom of God, a Christian nation that follows the laws of God, okay? These are the pilgrims and the Puritans, okay? And we've discussed them before. And they've always been there, okay? And they today comprise the right and the right are people who believe in conservative Christian values okay the left but there's also another strand of America and these are dissidents or political dissidents and they believe in the Enlightenment they
believe that reason should be the god of human affairs okay and these were the founding fathers okay the founding fathers believed in something called deism which is that there is a God but God gave us a power reason and logic to determine on our own affairs so the Constitution is a document based on deism okay separation of church and state and they want to create a multicultural secular Empire okay and today it met its met itself in the left okay now there's actually a lot of a lot of crossover between the left and the wealthy okay because if you look at the left it's usually urban liberal and college -educated okay and coastal okay and these are the people usually with all the money so the the inequality only makes the cultural wars much worse and so the inequality only makes the cultural wars much worse and so the right feel left out okay another
major division in America that's important is the one between Empire and democracy meaning that there are many a lot of people in America who benefit from America being empire but the rest suffer from the fact that America is an empire okay and then For example, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq made Wall Street very rich, but it was the poor, the right, who sent their sons to fight in these wars and who lost their lives or lost a limb. It was the poor who were taxed in order to fund these wars, and it's the poor who must pay off the debt from these wars. So the right is also very isolationist, meaning they don't want to fight these wars. They think that America should be an island. It should not intervene in the affairs of the world. So there are a lot of divisions in America. The problem today is that there's no actual solution to any of these divisions.
And the reason why, there are three major reasons why a civil war would probably break out. The first major reason is the over -militarization of America. And so what this means is that, first of all, we've already said that in America there are 434 million guns in private hands. So every individual has access to one or two guns. That's the first problem. The second problem is that if you go to a small town in America, and you look at the police there, you think that, okay, it's a small town, it's safe, they should have, I don't know, pistols, right? In fact, they have armored vehicles. Sometimes they have tanks. They have helicopters. They have bulletproof vests. They have machine guns. Okay? They got all this from the military. So that's just like a local police force. I'm not even talking about the state militias, okay? The National Guard. These guys are basically an army unto themselves.
Then you have federal agencies like the FBI and the CIA and Homeland Security, okay? NSA, okay? There's dozens of these federal agencies. They themselves are their own. They're their own army, meaning that the FBI and the CIA all have their special forces. Tanks, helicopters, jets, bombs, missiles, okay? So these guys can go to war against each other, okay? Then you have the U.S. military. The U.S. military is divided into the Army, the Air Force, the Marines, the Navy. Okay? And then you have something called the Space Force, okay? All right. To show you how powerful the U.S. military is, okay? Let's look at the top five air forces in the world, okay? The top five institutions or countries with the most powerful air force in the world. Who's number one? Who's number one, do you think? U.S. Air Force, right? Who's number two, do you guys know?
The top five air forces in the world. Number one would be the U.S. Air Force, right? Who's number two, do you think? Guess. Take a guess. Who's number two? Yeah, okay. Actually, number three, okay? The Russian Air Force would be number three. Who's number two, though? The U.K., the British, right? Nope? Okay. Number two is actually the U.S. Navy. Who's number... Number three is Russia. Number four is who? Can you guys guess? The U.S. Army. And who's number five? Can you guys guess? It's the U.S. Marines, okay? So, four of the top five air forces in the world are an arm of the U.S. military, okay? Number one is the U.S. Air Force. Number two is the U.S. Navy. Number three is Russia, the entire country of Russia, okay? Number four is the U.S. Army. Number five is the U.S. Marines.
That's how powerful America is. But then you have special forces. And, again, we've discussed special forces in this class before. And we said that special forces are good for special circumstances, like, for example, hijackings, okay? Or covert operations. The problem with special forces is they cannot be controlled, okay? So, for example, in Mexico, the people who run the drug cartels are former special forces, okay? Do you understand? The people who run the drug cartels in Mexico and who commit the most violence in the world are former members of their special forces. That's why you want to limit your special forces, okay? So, in the year 2000, America had 38,000 special forces. Today, it has 72,000 or 73,000. I can't remember, okay? That's a lot of special forces. These guys are trained in demolition, destroying buildings. They're an army unto themselves, okay? It would take exactly 1,000 of these guys, exactly 1,000 of these guys, to overthrow the U.S.
government, okay? And guess what? Delta Force, which is the most elite special force unit in America, has exactly 1,000 members. So, you have this guy who runs Delta Force. He's like, I want to overthrow the U.S. government for whatever reason. He can do so because they're so powerful, okay? So, I think special forces, it's just a bomb waiting to explode. So, the first major issue is just the over -militarization of America where anyone who has access to weapons can choose to start a war, okay? That's the first problem. Second problem is the breakdown of narratives, okay? So, a nation is a fiction, a narrative that everyone believes in. And there are certain narratives that have kept America united, okay? So, for example, the first narrative is the American dream, right? The equality of opportunity. So, that as long as you work hard and you play by the rules, you will succeed in America, right?
That's the American dream. Guess what, guys? No one believes in this anymore, okay? And the reason why is the inequality in America as well as the cultural wars. So, if you're a young person, you don't believe that if you work hard, you own a house, and you will be wealthy. You don't believe that, okay? You think like the game is stacked against you. You believe that Washington is corrupt. It only serves the interest of the rich. You believe that the wealthy have stolen everything. They've monopolized wealth. And you believe that whatever money you make will be stolen by the rich and by the government, okay? So, there's absolutely no reason to work hard. So, this idea that if you work hard, you will succeed, it's dead, right? Now, the new American dream is how do I stay out of debt, right? If you're a college graduate, you have tens of thousands of dollars in debt.
Consumers have thousands of dollars in credit card debt. You can no longer afford houses. If you buy a house, you can't pay off the mortgage, okay? So, this idea of the American dream, it's basically dead for most people. Then you have the narrative that America is good, okay? You believe that America represents democracy. It represents liberty. It defends freedom around the world. Guess what, guys? Most people in America don't believe this anymore, okay? So, for example, in the left, on the left, people are taught that America is a nation founded on security. Slavery, violence, and war. America is a force of destruction and evil, okay? That's what people on the left are taught. People on the right believe that America is an imperialist power that goes around and destroys countries for no reason, okay? So, most people don't actually believe that America is a force for good anymore, right?
And then you look at what's happening in Israel, right? Well, more young people now believe that America is a force of evil in the world. The other narrative that's really important is the narrative of liberalism. And the idea of liberalism is that even though we have differences, there are mechanisms for us to work out our differences. For example, the right to freedom of speech, okay? Freedom of speech. You can say whatever you want, okay? But what's important is to debate the opponent and come to a compromise based on logic, evidence, and the facts, okay? So, for the longest time, liberalism was what brought the left and the right together, okay? Liberalism tried to be in the middle. But now, liberalism is dead, okay? And the reason why is in 2016, Donald Trump became President of the United States. And the liberals in America went crazy. They could not believe that Donald Trump could be elected.
So, they came to believe that the problem was democracy itself. The problem is that people could not be reasoned with. Therefore, liberalism makes no sense. If people are stupid, if people cannot be reasoned with, why give them freedom of speech? Why let them debate? Why let them vote? Okay? So, liberalism today is dead. So, the stories that basically bind the country together no longer work, okay? Does that make sense? Then the third problem is breakdown of authority or institutions, okay? What kept the country together was the fact that people believed that the elites in power knew what they were doing and they cared about the well -being of the nation and of the people, okay? But recent events have shown this isn't true, okay? So, for example, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, right? Well, why did America fight these wars? For no reason. Then you had the 2008 financial crisis where the banks basically stole from the nation, stole from the poor, and kept the money.
And everyone was screwed, okay? Then you had COVID, right? COVID. Where the... The government, the elite, locked down the entire nation. Kids could not go to school. The poor could not go to work and make a living. And there was absolutely no evidence that COVID was actually dangerous, okay? Then the government made everyone take an experimental vaccine. And people were like, why are we doing this? Okay? So, elite actions over the past 20 years have made people cynical of power. So that in today's world, there's actually... In today's America, there's no more trusted institution, okay? Before you had government, you had media, like New York Times, Washington Post, you had science, you had military, okay? Um... And the government is like, they're just corrupt, right? Screw them. Congress is just hated by everyone, okay? The military... The media is... Just speaks for the rich.
They're always lying to us, right? New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, they're just liars, okay? So, no one trusts the media anymore. Then you have science. And you can't... You can't trust science because of COVID, right? Science made everyone take an experimental vaccine for no reason. So, you can't trust science anymore. The military goes fights wars for no reason. Look at Ukraine, look at Israel, okay? So, in other words, there's no institution in America that can bring people together anymore. They're not trusted. Oh, and also... Oh, sorry, I forgot about universities. Before people started universities, but not anymore because of the culture wars, right? So, that's the problem in America right now. You have three things going on. You have the militarization of society. Where anyone can start a war for no reason, okay? Second is that you have a breakdown of the stories and narratives that bind the country together. So, no one knows what it means to be American anymore.
And number three is there are no more authority figures, no more institutions that can bring people together. They're going to divide people, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And this is getting worse. So... We've seen the government fall, the media fall, the science fall, military fall, universities. But there's also the justice system, right? The courts. And this is falling as well because of Donald Trump. Remember like last week in New York City, Donald Trump was convicted guilty of 34 felonies, okay? And so, people are now no longer trusting the court system, the justice system, okay? So, again... All these sacred institutions in America, they're all falling one by one. Okay? So, does this make sense? So, if you look at all this, okay? America's history of violence, the conflicts raging in America, and the fact that America no longer believes in institutions and in narratives, okay?
Then the most likely outcome is a civil war. Okay? Does that make sense? So, any questions so far? Yeah. So, Celine asked a very good question. Like, how powerful is the American president? And the answer is that he's really a figurehead. Okay? He's not that powerful. Okay? Because, as Celine points out, power is diffused in America, in institutions. And if these institutions are corrupt, there's very little the president can do about it. And that's why this year, in November 2024, we will see the lowest rate of violence in America. One of the lowest turnout. One of the lowest turnouts of voters in American history because people just give up. Okay? Right? Four years ago, they came out to kick Trump out of office because they believed that Trump was a threat to democracy. And with Biden, people recognize that, no, it's all corrupt. Just burn the system down. Who cares? Okay?
So, no one cares who's president anymore. And that's going to help Trump in November. Okay? Any more questions before I move on? Okay. So, Celine asked the question, what will the Civil War look like? Okay? That's a very good question. And the answer is it will look nothing like the first Civil War. Okay? Because in the first Civil War, there was clearly a division that divided the nation. Okay? A pro -slavery camp and an anti -slavery camp. Okay? But, as you can see from this chart, in today's America, conflicts, there are many sorts of conflicts. There are many sorts of factions in America. Okay? And therefore, the Civil War will not be one event. But it will be a series of violent episodes over 10, 20, 50 years. Okay? Does that make sense? So, let's go over these events. Okay? The first thing that would probably happen are sort of riots and unrest. Okay?
And we saw that during the first Trump presidency. Because of the George Floyd. Black Lives Matter protests. Okay? So, we'll see more of that when Trump becomes president, where people are so angry at this election, they'll start rioting. Okay? And there'll be a lot of unrest. Second is basically civil conflict. Meaning that neighbors take guns against each other. So, America is divided between left and right. But there are actually pockets of America. Where left and right are very closely, they live very closely with each other. Okay? So, it's very likely to take arms against each other. But these would be small, isolated affairs. Where maybe one or two people get killed. Okay? So, you have civil conflict. Then you have state or city secession. Secession. Sorry. I spelled this wrong. Secession. Meaning that you have maybe one city, New York City, or one state, California. And they're so disgusted by the state of affairs, they declare independence. Okay?
They succeed. And guess what? They have their own army. Their citizens are armed. Okay? But they'll most likely be attacked by other states or different groups. Okay? So, that would be a more major conflict. Okay? Then you have what we'll call insurgencies. So, basically, a political group who's trying to... To form a government of some sort. Okay? So, it's possible that you have Christian extremists, or maybe left -wing extremists who try to overthrow the government of, I don't know, New York or Virginia. Okay? Right? Then you have coup d 'etats, where basically an arm of the military, maybe special forces, most probably special forces, tries to overthrow the government. Okay? So, I think because of the way things are structured, in the next civil war, all these things will happen at once. Okay? And they'll build on top of each other. But, remember that America is a very large country, so there could be a lot of places where it's very peaceful.
There's no war. Okay? But there could also be some places, like New York City or Los Angeles, where there is just a lot of violence going on. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay. So, whether or not the US government is overthrown, that's a very specific question. I don't know. Okay? The only thing I can do is look at the structural forces and conclude that a civil war is very likely and that the civil war will be very chaotic. But what will actually happen in a civil war, I don't actually know. Okay? But what I will say is that, given the nature of the civil war, I think once the war ends, the outcome will be that America becomes a Christian, isolationist, theocracy. Okay? And the reason is very simple. Okay? The reason is very simple. Remember that at the founding of America, there were two opposing visions of the country.
The first was to build a military base. Multicultural, secular empire to spread democracy and freedom around the world. Okay? That was the first vision. And America has achieved this vision. Okay? And it's led to all this conflict. The second vision, which is also very strong, is to believe in America as a white, Christian nation dedicated to the rule of God. Okay? And so, I think there will be extremists in America. There will be extremists in America who will want to push this agenda. And why would they win? Why would they win? Why are they most likely to win this war? Okay. The answer is they're most willing to fight and to die for what they believe in. Okay? And guess what, guys? A lot of these people happen to work in law enforcement, the military, and especially the special forces. Okay? All right? Does that make sense? So, that's what I think will be the most likely outcome of the Civil War when it ends.
But I don't know when it will end. Okay? And I don't actually know what happens in between. The specifics. Okay? All right? So, any more questions before I finish? Okay. The last thing I want to talk about is the specifics of how the Civil War will start. Okay? What will ignite this war. Okay? Yeah, Peter? Okay. So, Peter asked a great question, which is. Universities in the past few decades have become more politicized. Okay? Meaning, like, they're not actually interested in teaching you how to think. They're interested in teaching you how to think a certain way. Okay? Which is very left wing. Okay? So, for example, the belief that America is a society based on violence and slavery and exploitation of minorities. Okay? So, there's a lot of correctness in universities. Okay? And that's not going to change what the world will see today.
And Peter asked a question. Okay. So, what can we learn in university? And the answer is that even though universities have become more politicized, your education in university is up to you. Okay? Why? Because the university is very big. There are a lot of professors. And there are a lot of different classes. Okay? And so, it's up to you to structure your own learning and to be clear about what you want to learn. and to understand the limitations of the education you're getting, okay? Does that make sense? All right, any more questions before I move on? Okay, that's a great question, okay? So Jack asked a question like, who are the ones who don't trust universities? And the answer, of course, are people who are left out of the system, right? So people who don't actually go to university, the people on the right basically, okay? People on the left are composed mainly of college
-educated individuals who are wealthy, okay? But at the same time, there are many University who do not like what's going on. So there's a faction within the university professors and students who are dismayed by what's going on okay but they're only a, but they're only a small fraction of the total population, okay? Most universities have become extremely, extremely left -wing, okay? Any more questions before I move on? Okay, all right. So I'll move on to my next point, which will answer your question, okay? All right. Now let's talk about how the Civil War will actually start, okay? And it will start with the election of Donald Trump, the re -election of Donald Trump. And the reason why is that Trump is a unique figure in American politics. And the reason why is that he embodies the culture wars, okay? Meaning, like, the people on the left, all that they hate in the right manifests themselves in Donald Trump, okay?
He's white. He's sexist. He's racist. He's a pig. And he doesn't apologize. He doesn't apologize for any of this. He has no manners. He's not educated. He has no values, okay? All the left hate in the right manifests themselves in the body of Donald Trump. And that's why the right loves Donald Trump, right? Because their enemies hate them, okay? So, and for many in the right, Donald Trump is the messiah, okay? He's the Jesus. And everything that's happened in the past eight, nine years for them has confirmed that Donald Trump is Jesus, okay? And the reason why is Donald Trump, ever since he became elected president, the left, the elite, has been trying to persecute him, right? Remember that when he became president, they were spreading, the media was spreading stories that Trump was a Russian agent. He was a spy of Putin. That's just nonsense. There's no evidence of that.
But people believe that, okay? Then they were trying to say, then they tried to use the justice system against Donald Trump, right? They impeached him twice. They raided his house, okay? They're trying to send him to prison. A judge in Colorado tried to remove Donald Trump from the ballot, meaning you couldn't vote for him. So, everything that the elite has done has been to... Destroy Donald Trump, and therefore, people on the right think this guy is our savior. He's Jesus. He's the messiah, okay? Does that make sense? Now, let's figure out this. If you are on the left, if you're the elite, if you're the rich, and you hate Donald Trump, there's exactly one way, and only one way, you can destroy Donald Trump forever. How? You guys know? What would you do? If you really wanted to destroy Donald Trump? And you were like rich, and liberal, and elite, you go to Donald Trump, you have dinner together, and you say three words, and you will destroy him.
What are these three words? Okay. What you say to Donald Trump, what you do is you say, let's be friends, right? Why would I destroy Donald Trump? What's the appeal of Donald Trump? Why do people on the right love him? Why does MAGA love him? Because, that's right, because he is an outsider. He's the insider. He's the enemy of the elites, because the elites hate him, okay? So all the elites have to do is become Donald Trump's friend, right? Invite Donald Trump to his parties, say all these nice things about him on the media, and support Donald Trump. And then people on the right will be like, oh, we were fooled into thinking Donald Trump is an outsider when he's actually an insider. Okay? Then you've destroyed Donald Trump. Why won't the elite do that? No, it's not because they're too proud.
It's because what? Why won't they do that? Like, why won't they become friends with Donald Trump? And you know, it's something that Donald Trump probably wants as well, right? Yeah, it's hatred, okay? Do you understand? It's pure hatred. I want to kill this guy, okay? Do you understand? So you can see, like, the hatred between left and right. Remember that Donald Trump manifests all the right, okay? All the cultural values of the right, okay? And so people, the elite, hate this guy so much. That they're willing to do anything to get rid of this guy. But the irony is that because of this anger and hatred, they're doing everything to make Donald Trump invincible, okay? This is what we call TDS, or Trump Derangement Syndrome. The inability to recognize who Donald Trump is, and the inability to think properly about how to deal with Donald Trump, okay? Not only are the elite trying as
hard as they can to destroy Donald Trump, but at the same time, they're destroying the institutions and the narratives that hold America together, okay? Ever since Donald Trump became president, the mainstream media, New York Times, CNN, Washington Post, have relentlessly attacked him. Therefore, destroying their credibility, okay? Therefore, destroying liberalism. It's the elites themselves. Okay? It's the elites themselves who have destroyed the narratives and the institutions that bind America together. And it's all because of the hatred of Donald Trump, okay? Does that make sense? So it's really going to be this hatred of Donald Trump that drives the second American Civil War, okay? All right? Does that make sense? All right. So let's see how this will play out. Okay. So what will start this Civil War is in November, Trump becomes president, okay? So Trump becomes president. And the first thing that Trump has to figure out once he becomes president is how does he stay in office for the rest of his life, okay?
And the reason why is the moment he leaves office, he's going to be sued. He's going to be put in jail. He's going to be attacked by the elites, okay? So the first thing he needs to figure out, the only thing that he actually cares about is how do I stay in office for the rest of my life, okay? Now, there's a trick he can use to stay in office for the rest of his life, okay? Because the Constitution says that you can only serve two terms as president. But there's nothing in the Constitution that says you can't serve as vice president for as long as you want. Do you understand? So what Trump can do in 2028 is have his son run for president, and he becomes the vice president. But everyone will know that he'll still be the president. You understand? Does that make sense to you guys?
That's a trick he can use in 2028, okay? Because I guarantee you, the moment he steps into the White House, he's like, okay, how do I stay in here forever? Because it's either the White House or the jailhouse for me, okay? So he's going to think about how to stay in office. And the easiest thing he can do is have his son, Don Jr., run as president. He's run as president. He's run as vice president, okay? But everyone will know that he's still a president. Does that make sense? Okay? So you can imagine that if Trump does this, then this will create a constitutional crisis in the country where, like, the left go insane, okay? We're talking about, like, riots on the streets, civil conflict. Maybe New York City and Boston will be like, we're leaving the union if Trump becomes president again. Okay? You have these insurgencies all around America to rebel against the Trump regime.
Okay? So this is something that Trump can do in 2028, okay? Another question, then, is what can he do to ensure that he wins in 2028? And the easiest answer is in his, over the next two or three years, start a war with Iran. Okay? Start a war with Iran. The reason why this is important is that by starting a war with Iran, he wins over the deep state, right? He wins over the Israel lobby. He wins over the military industrial complex. He wins over a lot of the elite on his side. Okay? Does that make sense? Now, we discussed that America cannot possibly win a war against Iran. This war can only drag on, right? Now, let me ask you this question. Why would this be good for Trump? In 2028, okay? He's running for vice president. His son is president. He's running for president. And the war in Iran is dragging on.
Or it seems the United States is going to lose this war. Why would this be good for Trump in 2028? The entire society, the entire left is mobilized to get rid of Trump, right? Because they want this war in Iran to stop. So why would this war be good for Trump in 2028? Okay, I hate to say this, okay? But there should be a group of people who are doing anything they can to ensure that this war continues. And who are they? Within America. There's a group of people who are the most pro -empire of everyone else. And they fight a war. They want to win the war. And they'll do anything they can to ensure that this war is won. And who are they? Which part of the military? Exactly, okay? Do you understand? Special forces. Special forces. Okay? These guys are the problem. Special forces. Okay?
In 2028, if there's a war in Iran and Trump is running again to maintain the war, I guarantee you, these guys and other steep state members will come in and commit acts of terrorism, acts of political assassination to ensure that Trump wins. Okay? You'll also have election meddling, election interference. Okay? They're going to cheat on behalf of Trump. You understand? But if that's the case, okay, if 2028 is an extremely contested election, then we can imagine at that point the entire civil war blows up. Okay? New York City declares independence. Boston declares independence. California declares independence. You have all these wars breaking out across America. Okay? Meanwhile, the United States is still fighting this pointless war in Iran. So I think that's what's going to happen. All right. Any questions? Or is there anything you're not clear about? So the U.S. military, so Jack's question is like, who are the U.S. military support? Okay?
So the U.S. military is very complicated because it's divided into a lot of different departments. Okay? So the military is not one beast. It's like many, many different beasts. Okay? Second problem is how the leadership of the military is actually extremely democratic. But the base, the soldiers, are extremely republican. Okay? So you have this ideological mismatch between the leadership, the generals, and the soldiers. Okay? So it's most likely that given these differences, the military does not intervene in the civil war. Okay? But there is a group in the military who has the leeway, the flexibility, and the will to intervene. To intervene in this war and its special forces. Right? Because they're not controlled by bureaucracy. Does that make sense? So the question then is, who will the special forces support? And the answer is that different special force units will support different factions. Okay? That's why the civil war can be extremely violent.
Right? Because Americans will have access to guns. But these guys have access to jets and bombs and tanks. Okay? Does that make sense? Plus, like, again, each one of these guys can be a general in a war. Okay? Special forces is extremely powerful. Okay? Does that answer your question, Jack? Okay. Any more questions? Okay. So Celine asked a great question. Okay? And this is actually the most fundamental question. It is really impossible for the left to imagine that Donald Trump will attack Iran. Because Trump is seen as extremely anti -war. Okay? Donald Trump, when he was a first -term president, didn't start any wars. And so the left is not expecting Donald Trump to declare war because he didn't do so, and he's declared he won't do so. Okay? But here's what we know. First thing we know is that presidents on the campaign trail do things radically different from when they become president. Okay?
Every president is the same way. What you say in public before you become president and what you do as president are two very different things. Okay? That's the first thing. Second thing is that Donald Trump has recently said publicly that Joe Biden is not doing enough to protect Israel, meaning that he will do more to support Israel. Well, what does that mean? It means that he'll give Israel more weapons. And he will defend Israel against its enemies, which include Hezbollah and Iran. Okay? That's the second thing. The third thing is that there are now a group of billionaires who are coalescing around Donald Trump. Okay? And these billionaires are Miriam Adelson, who is the most pro -Israel billionaire in all of America. And she plans to give Donald Trump more weapons. Ninety million dollars. Okay? That's a lot of money. But then you also have some like Stephen Swartzman and Bill Ackman. Okay?
All these guys are extremely pro -Israel. They're Jewish billionaires who are extremely pro -Israel. Now, why are they giving Donald Trump a lot of money? It's because they want something, right? And what I'm guessing is what they want is for Donald Trump to make Nikki Haley his vice president. Okay? And to staff his cabinet, his government, with pro -Israel individuals. Okay? Who include Mike Pompeo. Mike Pompeo and others. Okay? In other words, Donald Trump presidency, the government is going to be extremely anti -Iran and pro -war with Iran. Okay? Nikki Haley, a couple weeks ago, went to Israel. She visited Israel. Okay? And she took a picture of herself. And what she did was she signed a bomb. Okay? A bomb that was being dropped on Gaza and said, finish them. America loves Israel. Nikki Haley. Okay? She's calling for mass genocide against the Palestinians. That's Nikki Haley, guys. All right? So, given the way things are turning out, I imagine that Nikki Haley becomes vice president.
And that's good for Trump because she's a scapegoat now. Right? Trump can say, hey, this war, it's all Nikki Haley's fault. Right? Okay? Also, Trump believed that he won in 2020. Okay? He won in 2020. But why did he lose the presidency? Because a deep state rigged the election. And why did the deep state rigged the election? Because he refused to fight wars. So, if you want to become president. Then he has no choice but to play along with the deep state. Okay? Which means going to war. So, a lot of what he will do as president depends on if he picks Nikki Haley to be VP or not. And we'll know in August if he wants Nikki Haley to be his VP. Okay? But if he picks Nikki Haley as VP, that's a sure sign that he's going to go to war with Iran.
I think. Okay? Because she'll be pushing for war with Iran. Okay? But then the question is, how will Donald Trump's base react? Okay? Because his base is actually extremely anti -Nikki Haley and anti -war. Right? And the answer is, at first, what will happen is that the elite, the mainstream media, will support Trump in his war with Iran. Okay? And you have a lot of people who support Trump who feel, who felt betrayed. Okay? But then, over time, what will happen is that Donald Trump will figure out how to manipulate his base. So that his base comes back to him. Do you understand? Okay? And so, there are different ways he can do that. First of all, what he can do is blame Nikki Haley in the deep state and says, oh, this is what happened. Oh, I was fooled. I was manipulated. I now want out of this war. Okay?
After he wins in 2028, he can change directions and say, I now want to end this war and make America into a Christian isolationist theocracy. Okay? Okay? Do you understand? That's something that he can do. All right? Something that he can do is go against Israel. Okay? And just say that it's Israel that... Plan all this. Okay? It's Israel that conspired to trick America into going to war. He can say that. And there'll be a lot of people who say that. Okay? It was the Jews who conspired against us. All right? So, there's a lot of things he can say. But whatever he does, all it's going to do is create more war. Okay? Within America. All he's going to do is inflame the Civil War. Okay? No matter what he does, there's going to be a lot of people that are going to say, okay, there's people who love him and there's people who hate him.
And they're going to go to war with each other. And that's why I think Donald Trump, as long as he's in office, the Civil War is going to break out and it's going to be very, very violent. Okay? Because he's... I mean, again, I don't know what it is about Donald Trump, but he brings up the worst in people. Okay? In 2016, before Donald Trump was president, America was actually a pretty sane place. Now, it's insane. Now, it's like you can't recognize it anymore. Okay? Now, I mean, I'll be honest with you. Okay? I am very much on the left. Okay? I think like a person on the left. Now, my values are extremely liberal left values. Okay? And in 2016, when Trump became president, I was traumatized. I believed the world had fallen apart. Okay? I believed the world was destroyed. Everything that I believed in was destroyed. And it took me a long time to step out of the trauma.
But, you know, I still have these liberal friends. And the moment we talk about Trump, if I say anything nice about Trump, which is like, okay, you know what? Trump is an idiot, but he's representing people who feel marginalized. They become so angry with me. Okay? Like, I feel insecure or unsafe. I feel as though they're about to punch me. Okay? If I say anything nice about Donald Trump, then people will want to punch me. Okay? And, like, I'm their friend. I've known them for, like, decades. And they know that, like, I hate Donald Trump as much as anyone. Okay? But you are not allowed to say anything nice about Donald Trump among liberals and leftist people. Okay? So, does that answer your question, Celine? Okay? So, it's complicated. Okay? But I think this is what could happen. All right? Any more questions? Okay. So, this goes back to the question of empire.
Okay? So, again, unfortunately, there are a lot of Americans who benefit from empire. Okay? That's why they want war with Iran. So, these people work on Wall Street. They work for the military industrial complex. And they tend to live in the suburbs. Okay? Okay. Any more questions? Is there anything you're not clear about? Does this argument make sense to you? Does the logic here make sense to you guys? Okay? Is there anything you don't... You want me to clarify? Okay. All right. So, next class, we'll talk about what happens afterwards. Okay? So, what this is telling us is that America is going to retreat from the world. But when America retreats from the world, it's going to be a very, very difficult time. Okay? We will live in a multipolar world. Okay? So, next class, we'll discuss what this multipolar world looks like. Okay?