America Resolves Conflicts Through Violence

The Revolution is not treated as pure founding myth. Source trail 1:362:52 It is an extremely violent sport. In fact, America is really the only country that plays this sport, and Americans love football. The Super Bowl is the most watched TV event every year. And the game, the game of footbal...1776, War of Independence. And the reality is that, The reality is that, Americans believed this war was sacred. And it was a revolution in human affairs. But if you actually look at the history of this war, you'll disc... It is recast as internal war: loyalists wanted to remain in the British union, and independence extremists terrorized them. The sacred origin story becomes the first American Civil War. That reversal matters because the lecture is looking for a habit, not an accident.

Manifest Destiny gives the habit a theology. Source trail 2:524:07 1776, War of Independence. And the reality is that, The reality is that, Americans believed this war was sacred. And it was a revolution in human affairs. But if you actually look at the history of this war, you'll disc...And the idea of Manifest Destiny is that it is God's will that America controls all of the Americas, okay? North America and South America. So the Americans embarked on a violent colonization of all lands, okay? Killing... If it is God's will that America controls all of the Americas, then expansion can feel sacred while operating as violent colonization. The later civil war is introduced through the same pattern: when political economy, territory, and sacred self-understanding collide, America does not easily accept limits.

The first Civil War is then stripped of the simplest moral explanation. Source trail 5:196:407:458:56 And the difference is that the North was very industrial and the South was agricultural. And because the economies were different, the way they instructed their politics and culture or society were different. So the Nor...It was an inefficient use of manpower. And at the start of the war, they only had about nine million people, okay? But what's important to remember is that the North was an industrial -based economy. The South was an ag... The North is industrial, the South agricultural; slavery is part of the political economy, but the immediate crisis is the balance of power as new western states enter the Union. Lincoln's plan, in this reading, is gradual containment. The South refuses the future it sees coming, and the Union answers with force.

The historical lesson is compressed into one rule: America resolves conflicts through violence. Source trail 10:1111:26 That was Lincoln's plan. Now the South did not like this plan and they were afraid of what Lincoln might really do as president so they declared independence from the United States. They basically succeeded from the Uni...to Just to keep the Union intact, that was the main issue. Does that make sense? Okay so but again, they could have chosen to Durham politically compromise. They could have had the discussions, right? They could have ev... It could have compromised, negotiated, or separated peacefully, but the national precedent is war. That precedent now sits underneath divisions that are more serious than 1861 because they are not one division. They are stacked divisions.

The class division is debt and extraction. Source trail 12:3524:09 So inequality and debt. So the wealthy, the top 1%, not only do they control most of the wealth in America, but they also control what we call the means of production, meaning that if new money comes into the system, th...That's the American dream. Guess what, guys? No one believes in this anymore, okay? And the reason why is the inequality in America as well as the cultural wars. So, if you're a young person, you don't believe that if y... The top one percent controls wealth, the means of production, and the channels through which new money enters the system. A rentier economy turns ordinary people into debtors and teaches them that work no longer leads to ownership. This class anger then feeds the culture war rather than remaining purely economic.

The culture war is not a recent misunderstanding. Source trail 13:3914:33 And this division actually goes back to the very founding of America in the 16th century. The Civil War is a civil war that took place in the United States between the haves and have -nots, okay? And this division actua...believe that reason should be the god of human affairs okay and these were the founding fathers okay the founding fathers believed in something called deism which is that there is a God but God gave us a power reason an... It comes from two old Americas: one that wants a Christian nation governed by God's law, and one that wants reason, deism, separation of church and state, and a multicultural secular Empire. The left is tied to the urban, college-educated, coastal winners; the right feels left out of both money and meaning.

The empire division gives the conflict a foreign-policy engine. Source trail 16:0017:2118:38 major division in America that's important is the one between Empire and democracy meaning that there are many a lot of people in America who benefit from America being empire but the rest suffer from the fact that Amer...And the reason why, there are three major reasons why a civil war would probably break out. The first major reason is the over -militarization of America. And so what this means is that, first of all, we've already said... Wall Street and imperial beneficiaries profit from wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, or Iran, while the poor are taxed, indebted, wounded, and sent to fight. At home, meanwhile, militarization has already prepared the arena: guns in private hands, armored local police, National Guard units, federal agencies, and military branches that can all become armies unto themselves.

American military power is presented as grotesquely abundant: four of the top five air forces in the world are arms of the U.S. Source trail 19:5921:1722:39 The top five air forces in the world. Number one would be the U.S. Air Force, right? Who's number two, do you think? Guess. Take a guess. Who's number two? Yeah, okay. Actually, number three, okay? The Russian Air Force...That's how powerful America is. But then you have special forces. And, again, we've discussed special forces in this class before. And we said that special forces are good for special circumstances, like, for example, h... military. The sharpest danger, though, is special forces. They are trained for demolition and covert action, difficult to control, and in this lecture special forces are a bomb waiting to explode.

The next danger is that a nation is a fiction, a narrative that everyone believes in, and America's shared fictions no longer hold. Source trail 22:3924:0925:18 government, okay? And guess what? Delta Force, which is the most elite special force unit in America, has exactly 1,000 members. So, you have this guy who runs Delta Force. He's like, I want to overthrow the U.S. govern...That's the American dream. Guess what, guys? No one believes in this anymore, okay? And the reason why is the inequality in America as well as the cultural wars. So, if you're a young person, you don't believe that if y... The American dream is dead for young people. The new American dream is how do I stay out of debt. America as a force for good is dead on both left and right, though for different reasons.

Liberalism once promised a middle procedure: free speech, debate, evidence, facts, and compromise. Source trail 26:3728:06 And then you look at what's happening in Israel, right? Well, more young people now believe that America is a force of evil in the world. The other narrative that's really important is the narrative of liberalism. And t...So, they came to believe that the problem was democracy itself. The problem is that people could not be reasoned with. Therefore, liberalism makes no sense. If people are stupid, if people cannot be reasoned with, why g... After Trump, in this telling, liberals stopped believing people could be reasoned with. If people cannot be reasoned with, why give them freedom of speech, debate, or votes? Liberalism dies not because its enemies reject it, but because its defenders lose faith in its premise.

Institutions fall in the same sequence. Source trail 28:0629:3731:1232:17 So, they came to believe that the problem was democracy itself. The problem is that people could not be reasoned with. Therefore, liberalism makes no sense. If people are stupid, if people cannot be reasoned with, why g...And everyone was screwed, okay? Then you had COVID, right? COVID. Where the... The government, the elite, locked down the entire nation. Kids could not go to school. The poor could not go to work and make a living. And... Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the 2008 financial crisis, COVID, media credibility, science, the military, universities, and finally the courts all become signs that no trusted authority can bring people together. Sacred institutions are falling one by one. Once that happens, institutions do not mediate conflict; they become more things to fight over.

When Celine asks how powerful the president is, the answer is deflationary: the president is a figurehead because power is diffused through institutions. Source trail 33:2934:39 Then the most likely outcome is a civil war. Okay? Does that make sense? So, any questions so far? Yeah. So, Celine asked a very good question. Like, how powerful is the American president? And the answer is that he's r...So, no one cares who's president anymore. And that's going to help Trump in November. Okay? Any more questions before I move on? Okay. So, Celine asked the question, what will the Civil War look like? Okay? That's a ver... If those institutions are corrupt or distrusted, changing the person at the top cannot restore legitimacy. This is why voter despair matters: the mood becomes just burn the system down.

When Celine asks what the civil war will look like, the first answer is negative: not 1861. Source trail 34:3935:5137:03 So, no one cares who's president anymore. And that's going to help Trump in November. Okay? Any more questions before I move on? Okay. So, Celine asked the question, what will the Civil War look like? Okay? That's a ver...And we saw that during the first Trump presidency. Because of the George Floyd. Black Lives Matter protests. Okay? So, we'll see more of that when Trump becomes president, where people are so angry at this election, the... The next civil war will not be one event but a series of violent episodes over 10, 20, 50 years. Riots, local civil conflict, city or state secession, insurgencies, and coups can all happen at once and build on one another.

The country will not burn evenly. Source trail 37:0338:28 They succeed. And guess what? They have their own army. Their citizens are armed. Okay? But they'll most likely be attacked by other states or different groups. Okay? So, that would be a more major conflict. Okay? Then...There's no war. Okay? But there could also be some places, like New York City or Los Angeles, where there is just a lot of violence going on. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay. So, whether or not the US government is ove... Some places may remain peaceful while New York, Los Angeles, or other dense political zones become violent. The point is structural rather than tactical: a large country can contain normal life and civil war at the same time, with the conflict appearing where factions, weapons, institutions, and symbolic stakes overlap.

The predicted end-state is a Christian isolationist theocracy. Source trail 38:2839:42 There's no war. Okay? But there could also be some places, like New York City or Los Angeles, where there is just a lot of violence going on. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay. So, whether or not the US government is ove...The first was to build a military base. Multicultural, secular empire to spread democracy and freedom around the world. Okay? That was the first vision. And America has achieved this vision. Okay? And it's led to all th... That outcome is not presented as morally superior; it is presented as the faction most willing to fight and die for its vision. Crucially, many of its possible carriers are imagined inside law enforcement, the military, and especially special forces.

The university questions are a bridge into Trump. Source trail 41:0042:0343:0744:28 But I don't know when it will end. Okay? And I don't actually know what happens in between. The specifics. Okay? All right? So, any more questions before I finish? Okay. The last thing I want to talk about is the specif...And Peter asked a question. Okay. So, what can we learn in university? And the answer is that even though universities have become more politicized, your education in university is up to you. Okay? Why? Because the univ... Politicized universities show how left and right no longer trust the same institutions, but Trump concentrates that conflict into a person. Everything the left hates in the right is said to manifest in him, and because the left hates him, the right loves him. Their enemy's hatred becomes proof.

That is why prosecution, impeachment, raids, ballot removal, and media attacks do not destroy Trump in this model. Source trail 44:2845:42 He's white. He's sexist. He's racist. He's a pig. And he doesn't apologize. He doesn't apologize for any of this. He has no manners. He's not educated. He has no values, okay? All the left hate in the right manifests th...But people believe that, okay? Then they were trying to say, then they tried to use the justice system against Donald Trump, right? They impeached him twice. They raided his house, okay? They're trying to send him to pr... They confirm him. For many on the right, he becomes messiah, Jesus, persecuted savior. Every attack meant to delegitimize him becomes more evidence that he is the outsider fighting the elite.

The perverse solution is friendship. Source trail 45:4247:0248:12 But people believe that, okay? Then they were trying to say, then they tried to use the justice system against Donald Trump, right? They impeached him twice. They raided his house, okay? They're trying to send him to pr...What are these three words? Okay. What you say to Donald Trump, what you do is you say, let's be friends, right? Why would I destroy Donald Trump? What's the appeal of Donald Trump? Why do people on the right love him?... If elites wanted to destroy the outsider myth, they could say three words: let's be friends. Invite him in, praise him, make him look like one of them, and the right would feel betrayed. But they cannot do it because they hate him too much. Hatred becomes strategic stupidity.

Trump Derangement Syndrome is defined here as the inability to recognize who Trump is and think properly about how to deal with him. Source trail 48:1249:25 It's because what? Why won't they do that? Like, why won't they become friends with Donald Trump? And you know, it's something that Donald Trump probably wants as well, right? Yeah, it's hatred, okay? Do you understand?...hard as they can to destroy Donald Trump, but at the same time, they're destroying the institutions and the narratives that hold America together, okay? Ever since Donald Trump became president, the mainstream media, Ne... The result is institutional self-harm: the media destroys its credibility, liberalism destroys itself, and the elites themselves destroy the narratives and institutions that bind America together. Hatred of Trump becomes the drive shaft of the second civil war.

The next move is survival. Source trail 49:2550:3651:34 hard as they can to destroy Donald Trump, but at the same time, they're destroying the institutions and the narratives that hold America together, okay? Ever since Donald Trump became president, the mainstream media, Ne...And the reason why is the moment he leaves office, he's going to be sued. He's going to be put in jail. He's going to be attacked by the elites, okay? So the first thing he needs to figure out, the only thing that he ac... Once Trump returns to office, the lecture imagines his governing question as: how do I stay here forever? The incentive is put brutally: it is either the White House or the jailhouse for me. The proposed workaround is to have Don Jr. run in 2028 while Trump serves as vice president and remains the real power.

That creates constitutional crisis, but the deeper accelerator is war with Iran. Source trail 51:3452:3653:43 That's a trick he can use in 2028, okay? Because I guarantee you, the moment he steps into the White House, he's like, okay, how do I stay in here forever? Because it's either the White House or the jailhouse for me, ok...Okay? So this is something that Trump can do in 2028, okay? Another question, then, is what can he do to ensure that he wins in 2028? And the easiest answer is in his, over the next two or three years, start a war with... A war gives Trump a way to win over the deep state, the Israel lobby, the military-industrial complex, and parts of the elite. It also gives the most pro-empire faction inside the military a reason to act. These guys are the problem: special forces.

In the scenario, an Iran war that drags on makes 2028 explosive. Source trail 53:4354:56 Or it seems the United States is going to lose this war. Why would this be good for Trump in 2028? The entire society, the entire left is mobilized to get rid of Trump, right? Because they want this war in Iran to stop....In 2028, if there's a war in Iran and Trump is running again to maintain the war, I guarantee you, these guys and other steep state members will come in and commit acts of terrorism, acts of political assassination to e... Special forces and other security actors could commit terrorism, political assassination, election meddling, or interference to keep the war alive and secure Trump's victory. If the election becomes contested, secession and local wars erupt while the United States is still fighting abroad.

Jack's military question is answered through fragmentation. Source trail 54:5656:2057:2958:47 In 2028, if there's a war in Iran and Trump is running again to maintain the war, I guarantee you, these guys and other steep state members will come in and commit acts of terrorism, acts of political assassination to e...So the U.S. military is very complicated because it's divided into a lot of different departments. Okay? So the military is not one beast. It's like many, many different beasts. Okay? Second problem is how the leadershi... The military is not one beast. It's like many, many different beasts. Leadership, soldiers, branches, and special-forces units can pull in different directions. Celine's Iran question is answered the same way: what a president says before taking office and what he does in office are two different things, especially when donors, Israel, and cabinet choices change the incentive field.

The donor story becomes a personnel story. Source trail 59:581:01:17 All these guys are extremely pro -Israel. They're Jewish billionaires who are extremely pro -Israel. Now, why are they giving Donald Trump a lot of money? It's because they want something, right? And what I'm guessing i...And that's good for Trump because she's a scapegoat now. Right? Trump can say, hey, this war, it's all Nikki Haley's fault. Right? Okay? Also, Trump believed that he won in 2020. Okay? He won in 2020. But why did he los... Pro-Israel billionaires support Trump because they want an anti-Iran government; Nikki Haley and figures like Mike Pompeo stand for that direction. If Haley becomes vice president, the lecture treats it as a sign of war with Iran. She also becomes a scapegoat: Trump can blame the war on her when the base turns against it.

The base problem is solved through blame. Source trail 1:02:211:03:28 I think. Okay? Because she'll be pushing for war with Iran. Okay? But then the question is, how will Donald Trump's base react? Okay? Because his base is actually extremely anti -Nikki Haley and anti -war. Right? And th...After he wins in 2028, he can change directions and say, I now want to end this war and make America into a Christian isolationist theocracy. Okay? Okay? Do you understand? That's something that he can do. All right? So... Trump can say he was fooled by Haley, the deep state, or Israel; then, after winning in 2028, he can change direction, end the war, and make America into a Christian isolationist theocracy. The same maneuver that wins imperial support can later be turned into anti-imperial purification.

None of this calms the country. Source trail 1:04:311:05:37 And they're going to go to war with each other. And that's why I think Donald Trump, as long as he's in office, the Civil War is going to break out and it's going to be very, very violent. Okay? Because he's... I mean,...But, you know, I still have these liberal friends. And the moment we talk about Trump, if I say anything nice about Trump, which is like, okay, you know what? Trump is an idiot, but he's representing people who feel mar... Trump brings up the worst in people. The lecture turns autobiographical here: even a left-liberal who hates Trump can no longer say anything minimally sympathetic about what Trump represents without liberal friends becoming furious. You are not allowed to say anything nice about Donald Trump. That social fact is treated as evidence of a country ready to fight over symbols.

The closing return is empire. Source trail 1:05:371:06:51 But, you know, I still have these liberal friends. And the moment we talk about Trump, if I say anything nice about Trump, which is like, okay, you know what? Trump is an idiot, but he's representing people who feel mar...Okay? So, again, unfortunately, there are a lot of Americans who benefit from empire. Okay? That's why they want war with Iran. So, these people work on Wall Street. They work for the military industrial complex. And th... There are a lot of Americans who benefit from empire, and that is why they want war with Iran: Wall Street, the military-industrial complex, and suburban beneficiaries. But the civil war also means America retreats from the world. The next world is multipolar, and the retreat into it will be very difficult.