{ "generated_by": "Generated by ops/scripts/compile-content.mjs. Do not edit by hand.", "generated_at": "deterministic", "slug": "predictive-history-exrk-85630k", "id": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k", "source_class": "episode", "collection": "episodes", "title": "Geo-Strategy #5: Why Trump Will Win (And Pick Nikki Haley as VP)", "source_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k", "video_id": "exRK-85630k", "embed_url": "https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/exRK-85630k", "published_at": "2024-05-17", "recorded_at": null, "date_precision": "day", "date_label": "2024-05-17, day precision", "chronology_status": "dated", "channel": { "id": "UC11aHtNnc5bEPLI4jf6mnYg", "handle": "@PredictiveHistory", "title": "Predictive History", "url": "https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC11aHtNnc5bEPLI4jf6mnYg" }, "path_base": "/episodes", "path": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_path": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/", "data_url": "/data/lens/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k.json", "counts": { "semantic_passes": 5, "interactions": 9, "speaker_notes": 6, "claims": 45, "signature_moments": 17, "predictions": 12, "models": 9, "glossary_terms": 18, "chronology_notes": 5, "uncertainty_notes": 9, "glossary_candidates": 18, "transcript_segments": 34, "transcript_words": 5156, "duration_seconds": 2486.84, "duration_label": "41:26" }, "paths": { "source": "content/sources/videos/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/source.yaml", "transcript": "content/sources/videos/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcripts/v1/transcript.clean.jsonl", "semantic_bundle": "content/lens/evidence/videos/predictive-history-exrk-85630k.semantic.json", "semantic_passes": [ "content/workflow/proposals/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/packet-0001.semantic.json", "content/workflow/proposals/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/packet-0002.semantic.json", "content/workflow/proposals/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/packet-0003.semantic.json", "content/workflow/proposals/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/packet-0004.semantic.json", "content/workflow/proposals/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/packet-0005.semantic.json" ], "read": "content/lens/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/read.json" }, "read": { "id": "episode-read:predictive-history-exrk-85630k:v1", "kind": "episode-read", "schema_version": 2, "source_id": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k", "slug": "predictive-history-exrk-85630k", "title": "The Haley Bet as Political Theater", "subtitle": "A cleaned reading of Geo-Strategy #5", "read_time": "7 min", "editorial_mode": "distilled-lecture", "voice_policy": "Direct argumentative prose derived from the lecture. Avoid repeated third-person framing. Do not impersonate first-person authorship except when quoting verified source material.", "trace_policy": "Paragraph-level transcript refs. Speculative claims stay marked as speculative and dated predictions stay tied to the source date.", "dek": "A dated May 2024 election model: Biden's 2020 coalition weakens, the suburbs become the hinge, and Trump can win by turning Nikki Haley from enemy into evidence that he has changed.", "thesis": "The lecture is not only a prediction about Trump and Haley. It is a model of political optics. Biden won suburban trust when the Harris pick made him look forgiving, listening, and empathetic. Trump, in this reading, can copy the same redemption story by reconciling with Haley. The apparent feud becomes useful because politics is theater: the enemy has to look real before reconciliation can look transformative.", "source_notes": [ { "text": "This read preserves the lecture as a dated May 17, 2024 prediction and method exercise. It does not update the source claim into a present-tense forecast.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.82, "end": 88.92, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay, so let's begin class. And today we are discussing whether or not Trump will win in November. And I'm making the prediction that he will win in November and that he will pick Nikki Haley as his vice president. Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2372.54, "end": 2427.3, "time_label": "39:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? So you know what? It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, okay? Possibly someone named J.D. Vance, okay? The only thing you need to know about J.D. Vance is he's very loyal to Trump. It's possi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2427.3, "end": 2486.84, "time_label": "40:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the world. By building analytical models that we can then test against reality and then b..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "Several transcript spans contain ASR noise, including the Black-voter percentage, a repeated phrase in the college-educated section, and renderings of Sheldon Adelson's name. The read avoids relying on those noisy phrasings where the argument can be preserved without them.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 89.04, "end": 157.77, "time_label": "1:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Assuming that if 65,000 people in key battleground states flip their votes, then Trump would have won. Okay, so the margin of victory was very, very close, as is usually the case in highly contested American elections...." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 380.88, "end": 442.08, "time_label": "6:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Now let's look at the college educated. Okay, so 70 % of people with college degrees voted for Biden. These are what we call the, the coastal elite, right? The coastal professional managerial elite. And they usually ove..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1457.62, "end": 1557.117, "time_label": "24:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "got her she got this money mainly for an organization called United against a nuclear Iran okay and this organization's primary purpose is to create conflict between the United States and Iran okay they they go against..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "opening": { "heading": "Core Reading", "text": "The wager begins with a simple electoral problem: Biden's 2020 victory looked enormous, but the coalition that made it possible was fragile. Black voters, young voters, college-educated voters, women, and especially suburban voters each had a reason to reject Trump in 2020. By 2024, those reasons no longer have the same force. The debt is paid off, the protest energy has moved to Gaza, Biden has become the incumbent, and the suburbs again become the battleground.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0007" ], "marks": [ { "text": "The debt is paid off", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 158.55, "end": 230.208, "time_label": "2:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "But this year the debt is paid off, right? So they won't feel so loyal to Biden, okay? Also in 2020, there's something called a George Floyd protest. So what happened was that in May 2020, a black man in Minneapolis, Ge..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "the suburbs again become the battleground", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0007" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 443.24, "end": 532.2, "time_label": "7:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Women, okay? So 54 % of women voted for Biden. 44 % voted for Trump. Okay? And again, because Trump is seen as this hateful figure, we expect that women will still consistently vote Democratic this year, okay? And also..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.82, "end": 88.92, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay, so let's begin class. And today we are discussing whether or not Trump will win in November. And I'm making the prediction that he will win in November and that he will pick Nikki Haley as his vice president. Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 158.55, "end": 230.208, "time_label": "2:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "But this year the debt is paid off, right? So they won't feel so loyal to Biden, okay? Also in 2020, there's something called a George Floyd protest. So what happened was that in May 2020, a black man in Minneapolis, Ge..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 301.15, "end": 379.92, "time_label": "5:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So many Americans see this as just bad leadership, okay? So that's black people. And recent polls show that actually Biden's lead with black people is not as much as it was in 2020, okay? So this lead is going down. You..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 443.24, "end": 532.2, "time_label": "7:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Women, okay? So 54 % of women voted for Biden. 44 % voted for Trump. Okay? And again, because Trump is seen as this hateful figure, we expect that women will still consistently vote Democratic this year, okay? And also..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, "beats": [ { "id": "coalition-looks-large", "heading": "The Coalition Looks Larger Than It Is", "time_range": "00:00-10:17", "summary": "The 2020 Biden win is recast as a narrow Electoral College outcome held together by temporary anti-Trump motives.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "coalition-looks-large-001", "text": "The popular-vote scale hides the electoral mechanism. Biden received millions more votes, but the lecture treats the decisive margin as a handful of key-state votes. The task is therefore not to explain why every Biden voter disappears. It is to explain why enough parts of the 2020 coalition might lose urgency.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.82, "end": 88.92, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay, so let's begin class. And today we are discussing whether or not Trump will win in November. And I'm making the prediction that he will win in November and that he will pick Nikki Haley as his vice president. Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 89.04, "end": 157.77, "time_label": "1:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Assuming that if 65,000 people in key battleground states flip their votes, then Trump would have won. Okay, so the margin of victory was very, very close, as is usually the case in highly contested American elections...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] }, { "id": "coalition-looks-large-002", "text": "Black voters are presented as having had two 2020 reasons: Obama-era loyalty to Biden and anger at Trump after George Floyd. By 2024, Biden is the incumbent and has to answer for inflation, immigration, Ukraine spending, and a living standard that the lecture says has fallen for poorer Americans.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "marks": [ { "text": "Biden is the incumbent", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 158.55, "end": 230.208, "time_label": "2:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "But this year the debt is paid off, right? So they won't feel so loyal to Biden, okay? Also in 2020, there's something called a George Floyd protest. So what happened was that in May 2020, a black man in Minneapolis, Ge..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 89.04, "end": 157.77, "time_label": "1:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Assuming that if 65,000 people in key battleground states flip their votes, then Trump would have won. Okay, so the margin of victory was very, very close, as is usually the case in highly contested American elections...." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 158.55, "end": 230.208, "time_label": "2:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "But this year the debt is paid off, right? So they won't feel so loyal to Biden, okay? Also in 2020, there's something called a George Floyd protest. So what happened was that in May 2020, a black man in Minneapolis, Ge..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 230.208, "end": 300.65, "time_label": "3:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "And in fact, you can make the argument that Biden has really hurt the standard of living of black people, why? Because inflation has gone up, okay? When inflation goes up, it usually hurts poor people the most, okay? Th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "coalition-looks-large-003", "text": "Young voters and college-educated voters still lean Democratic, but their enthusiasm is treated as weaker. Gaza can make young voters sit out rather than vote for Biden. Ukraine and Gaza can make college-educated voters support Biden mainly as a protest against Trump, not as a positive commitment to Biden.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 301.15, "end": 379.92, "time_label": "5:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So many Americans see this as just bad leadership, okay? So that's black people. And recent polls show that actually Biden's lead with black people is not as much as it was in 2020, okay? So this lead is going down. You..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 380.88, "end": 442.08, "time_label": "6:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Now let's look at the college educated. Okay, so 70 % of people with college degrees voted for Biden. These are what we call the, the coastal elite, right? The coastal professional managerial elite. And they usually ove..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] }, { "id": "coalition-looks-large-004", "text": "Women remain Democratic in the model, especially around abortion and Trump's image. But the election is decided elsewhere: cities are Democratic, rural areas are Republican, and the suburbs are where the swing happens. Trump won them in 2016, lost them in 2020, and must win them back in 2024.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "marks": [ { "text": "the suburbs are where the swing happens", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 443.24, "end": 532.2, "time_label": "7:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Women, okay? So 54 % of women voted for Biden. 44 % voted for Trump. Okay? And again, because Trump is seen as this hateful figure, we expect that women will still consistently vote Democratic this year, okay? And also..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 532.94, "end": 617.255, "time_label": "8:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "That's a flip of 2 million voters, okay? So in elections, usually it's a suburban vote that determines the election, because the swing voters. So for Trump to win this year, he needs to win the suburban vote. He won tha..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 443.24, "end": 532.2, "time_label": "7:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Women, okay? So 54 % of women voted for Biden. 44 % voted for Trump. Okay? And again, because Trump is seen as this hateful figure, we expect that women will still consistently vote Democratic this year, okay? And also..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 532.94, "end": 617.255, "time_label": "8:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "That's a flip of 2 million voters, okay? So in elections, usually it's a suburban vote that determines the election, because the swing voters. So for Trump to win this year, he needs to win the suburban vote. He won tha..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 0, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.82, "end": 88.92, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay, so let's begin class. And today we are discussing whether or not Trump will win in November. And I'm making the prediction that he will win in November and that he will pick Nikki Haley as his vice president. Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 230.208, "end": 300.65, "time_label": "3:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "And in fact, you can make the argument that Biden has really hurt the standard of living of black people, why? Because inflation has gone up, okay? When inflation goes up, it usually hurts poor people the most, okay? Th..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 532.94, "end": 617.255, "time_label": "8:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "That's a flip of 2 million voters, okay? So in elections, usually it's a suburban vote that determines the election, because the swing voters. So for Trump to win this year, he needs to win the suburban vote. He won tha..." } ] }, { "id": "biden-redemption-story", "heading": "The Story Biden Won", "time_range": "10:17-17:51", "summary": "Biden's 2020 suburban appeal is explained through stability, pandemic competence, and the Harris reconciliation story.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "biden-redemption-story-001", "text": "Suburban voters are described as people who like order, status quo, and unifying leadership. Trump became too polarizing for that audience. Biden, by contrast, could appear steady, establishment, and able to unite Republicans and Democrats after the chaos of the Trump years.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0009" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 617.255, "end": 682.4, "time_label": "10:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Because if you live in the suburbs, you tend to be middle class, you tend to be pretty wealthy and more educated. So you like the status quo. You want a leader who's conservative and who's a unifier. And throughout the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] }, { "id": "biden-redemption-story-002", "text": "The pandemic gives the stability argument a practical form. In suburbs with children, schools, older voters, and professional households, Trump's outsider quality no longer looks like freedom from Washington. It looks like an inability to make government work.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 683.16, "end": 753.29, "time_label": "11:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Second was the pandemic. So as you know, COVID hit the United States, and the suburbs were extremely freaked out about this because they tend to have children who go to school, they tend to be older, and we see that as..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] }, { "id": "biden-redemption-story-003", "text": "Kamala Harris is the key narrative piece. She had attacked Biden on race and school integration in the 2019 debate, which should have made her impossible as his running mate. When Biden picked her anyway, the pick created a redemption story: he does not hold grudges, he listens, he is a team player, and he has empathy.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "marks": [ { "text": "a redemption story", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:legitimacy-fiction-reconciliation-theater" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 831.928, "end": 916.47, "time_label": "13:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "They want safety, they want security, they just have kids. And the third reason why they like Kamala Harris is because of the redemption story. So, in 2019, there's a Democratic primary, okay? This is when the Democrats..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 979.68, "end": 1071.932, "time_label": "16:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Anyone? Yes, okay, exactly, okay? Doesn't hold grudges, what else? What else? What else? Doesn't hold grudges. He's a very forgiving man. What else? Good, yes, he listens, right? He's a listener. He's a team player, oka..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:legitimacy-fiction-reconciliation-theater", "valid": true, "concept": "legitimacy-fiction", "title": null, "doc_title": "Legitimacy Fiction", "doc_slug": "lens/legitimacy-fiction", "url": "/lens/legitimacy-fiction/#legitimacy-fiction-reconciliation-theater", "text": "Reconciliation becomes legitimacy theater when a visible feud, insult, or impossible alliance is reversed into proof that a political actor has changed, matured, forgiven, listened, or become fit for a target audience's trust.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ] } ] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 683.16, "end": 753.29, "time_label": "11:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Second was the pandemic. So as you know, COVID hit the United States, and the suburbs were extremely freaked out about this because they tend to have children who go to school, they tend to be older, and we see that as..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 831.928, "end": 916.47, "time_label": "13:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "They want safety, they want security, they just have kids. And the third reason why they like Kamala Harris is because of the redemption story. So, in 2019, there's a Democratic primary, okay? This is when the Democrats..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 916.51, "end": 979.6, "time_label": "15:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "for 50 years, and some of your policies I don't support. For example, you do not support the integration of black and white students together. Well, you know what, Joe? I'm a black student. I was a black little girl, gr..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 979.68, "end": 1071.932, "time_label": "16:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Anyone? Yes, okay, exactly, okay? Doesn't hold grudges, what else? What else? What else? Doesn't hold grudges. He's a very forgiving man. What else? Good, yes, he listens, right? He's a listener. He's a team player, oka..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "biden-redemption-story-004", "text": "That trait cluster matters because it is anti-Trump. The Harris pick made Biden look like the opposite of Trump's perceived immaturity: forgiving, tolerant, compassionate, and capable of listening. In the lecture's model, suburban women do not just vote for biography. They vote for the personality story the ticket lets them tell about the president.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "marks": [ { "text": "it is anti-Trump", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 979.68, "end": 1071.932, "time_label": "16:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Anyone? Yes, okay, exactly, okay? Doesn't hold grudges, what else? What else? What else? Doesn't hold grudges. He's a very forgiving man. What else? Good, yes, he listens, right? He's a listener. He's a team player, oka..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 979.68, "end": 1071.932, "time_label": "16:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Anyone? Yes, okay, exactly, okay? Doesn't hold grudges, what else? What else? What else? Doesn't hold grudges. He's a very forgiving man. What else? Good, yes, he listens, right? He's a listener. He's a team player, oka..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 617, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 617.255, "end": 682.4, "time_label": "10:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Because if you live in the suburbs, you tend to be middle class, you tend to be pretty wealthy and more educated. So you like the status quo. You want a leader who's conservative and who's a unifier. And throughout the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 831.928, "end": 916.47, "time_label": "13:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "They want safety, they want security, they just have kids. And the third reason why they like Kamala Harris is because of the redemption story. So, in 2019, there's a Democratic primary, okay? This is when the Democrats..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 979.68, "end": 1071.932, "time_label": "16:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Anyone? Yes, okay, exactly, okay? Doesn't hold grudges, what else? What else? What else? Doesn't hold grudges. He's a very forgiving man. What else? Good, yes, he listens, right? He's a listener. He's a team player, oka..." } ] }, { "id": "copy-the-story", "heading": "Copy The Redemption Story", "time_range": "17:51-23:13", "summary": "Nikki Haley becomes the Republican version of the Harris move, precisely because the Trump-Haley feud looks hard to forgive.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "copy-the-story-001", "text": "The move available to Trump is to copy the same thing. Haley has the profile the lecture needs for a suburban story: South Asian descent, immigrant parents, a state governorship, service in the Trump administration, and a strong appeal to college-educated suburban women during the Republican primary.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "marks": [ { "text": "copy the same thing", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0015" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1071.932, "end": 1165.14, "time_label": "17:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? And this is why Biden was able to win in 2020. So this year, what can Trump do to win the suburbs? What can he do? Yeah, he can copy this exact same thing, okay? And it turns out he can do this, ok..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1071.932, "end": 1165.14, "time_label": "17:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? And this is why Biden was able to win in 2020. So this year, what can Trump do to win the suburbs? What can he do? Yeah, he can copy this exact same thing, okay? And it turns out he can do this, ok..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1166.16, "end": 1241.02, "time_label": "19:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Guess who just loved her? Who voted for her in droves? Guess what demographic group? Anyone? Suburban woman, okay, do you understand? College educated suburban woman, okay? So in other words, if Trump brings her onto th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "copy-the-story-002", "text": "The objection becomes part of the mechanism. Haley called Trump divisive. Trump called Haley a bird brain and said he was not considering her. On the surface, that should make the pick impossible. But if the pick happens after the feud, the impossibility is what makes the story powerful.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0017" ], "marks": [ { "text": "a bird brain", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0017" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1166.16, "end": 1241.02, "time_label": "19:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Guess who just loved her? Who voted for her in droves? Guess what demographic group? Anyone? Suburban woman, okay, do you understand? College educated suburban woman, okay? So in other words, if Trump brings her onto th..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1241.02, "end": 1314, "time_label": "20:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "And Trump likes loyalty. Also, hey guys, Trump holds grudges, right? And he doesn't listen, and he's not a team player, and he lacks empathy. So there's no way he would pick Nikki Haley. And in fact, this past week, the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1166.16, "end": 1241.02, "time_label": "19:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Guess who just loved her? Who voted for her in droves? Guess what demographic group? Anyone? Suburban woman, okay, do you understand? College educated suburban woman, okay? So in other words, if Trump brings her onto th..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1241.02, "end": 1314, "time_label": "20:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "And Trump likes loyalty. Also, hey guys, Trump holds grudges, right? And he doesn't listen, and he's not a team player, and he lacks empathy. So there's no way he would pick Nikki Haley. And in fact, this past week, the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "copy-the-story-003", "text": "A Haley pick in August would let the media and suburbs say Trump has grown. The five-year-old-child narrative would be answered by a changed-man narrative: he can let go of grudges, listen to former enemies, show empathy, and make room for a woman who criticized him.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "marks": [ { "text": "changed-man narrative", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:legitimacy-fiction-reconciliation-theater" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1314.66, "end": 1393.35, "time_label": "21:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "How would people feel about him? Well, what would the suburbs say? think about Trump how do you feel if you saw this he's a changed man right Trump has grown remember like the narrative about Trump is he is a five -year..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:legitimacy-fiction-reconciliation-theater", "valid": true, "concept": "legitimacy-fiction", "title": null, "doc_title": "Legitimacy Fiction", "doc_slug": "lens/legitimacy-fiction", "url": "/lens/legitimacy-fiction/#legitimacy-fiction-reconciliation-theater", "text": "Reconciliation becomes legitimacy theater when a visible feud, insult, or impossible alliance is reversed into proof that a political actor has changed, matured, forgiven, listened, or become fit for a target audience's trust.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ] } ] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1241.02, "end": 1314, "time_label": "20:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "And Trump likes loyalty. Also, hey guys, Trump holds grudges, right? And he doesn't listen, and he's not a team player, and he lacks empathy. So there's no way he would pick Nikki Haley. And in fact, this past week, the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1314.66, "end": 1393.35, "time_label": "21:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "How would people feel about him? Well, what would the suburbs say? think about Trump how do you feel if you saw this he's a changed man right Trump has grown remember like the narrative about Trump is he is a five -year..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "copy-the-story-004", "text": "This is the center of the election prediction. If the suburbs switch, Trump wins. Haley is not only a demographic add-on; she is the prop that lets the campaign tell the forgiveness story Biden told with Harris.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1314.66, "end": 1393.35, "time_label": "21:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "How would people feel about him? Well, what would the suburbs say? think about Trump how do you feel if you saw this he's a changed man right Trump has grown remember like the narrative about Trump is he is a five -year..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1393.35, "end": 1457.62, "time_label": "23:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "he wins so if he picks Nikki Haley in August he will win okay I'm not completely sure that it will pick Nikki Haley I think that this is his best strategic move okay but Trump is not really predictable all right and who..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ], "start": 1071, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1071.932, "end": 1165.14, "time_label": "17:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? And this is why Biden was able to win in 2020. So this year, what can Trump do to win the suburbs? What can he do? Yeah, he can copy this exact same thing, okay? And it turns out he can do this, ok..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1166.16, "end": 1241.02, "time_label": "19:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Guess who just loved her? Who voted for her in droves? Guess what demographic group? Anyone? Suburban woman, okay, do you understand? College educated suburban woman, okay? So in other words, if Trump brings her onto th..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1314.66, "end": 1393.35, "time_label": "21:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "How would people feel about him? Well, what would the suburbs say? think about Trump how do you feel if you saw this he's a changed man right Trump has grown remember like the narrative about Trump is he is a five -year..." } ] }, { "id": "vp-pick-as-iran-signal", "heading": "The VP Pick As Iran Signal", "time_range": "23:13-30:01", "summary": "After the electoral model, the lecture turns Haley's institutional ties into a warning about Iran policy.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "vp-pick-as-iran-signal-001", "text": "The lecture then asks what Haley would do with the office. The answer is built from money and institutions: post-office wealth, United Against a Nuclear Iran, pro-Israel donor networks, Boeing, and Christians United for Israel. The claim is not that Haley is merely moderate enough for suburbs. It is that her network points toward Iran.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1393.35, "end": 1457.62, "time_label": "23:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "he wins so if he picks Nikki Haley in August he will win okay I'm not completely sure that it will pick Nikki Haley I think that this is his best strategic move okay but Trump is not really predictable all right and who..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1457.62, "end": 1557.117, "time_label": "24:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "got her she got this money mainly for an organization called United against a nuclear Iran okay and this organization's primary purpose is to create conflict between the United States and Iran okay they they go against..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1557.117, "end": 1638.747, "time_label": "25:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Second thing is that in 2019, she got a job at Boeing. Boeing is a weapons manufacturer. They make airplanes, but they mainly make bombs and missiles, okay? So they love war. She sat on the board of Boeing, an extremely..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] }, { "id": "vp-pick-as-iran-signal-002", "text": "In this reading, Haley's vice-presidential role would be to agitate for war against Iran. The same pick that helps Trump look forgiving to suburban voters also tells foreign-policy observers who will have a voice in the White House.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0022" ], "marks": [ { "text": "agitate for war against Iran", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0022" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1557.117, "end": 1638.747, "time_label": "25:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Second thing is that in 2019, she got a job at Boeing. Boeing is a weapons manufacturer. They make airplanes, but they mainly make bombs and missiles, okay? So they love war. She sat on the board of Boeing, an extremely..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1638.747, "end": 1713.468, "time_label": "27:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "She'll be the one in the White House pushing for war in Iran. Escalating tension in Iran, okay? So Nikki Haley, okay, what's also interesting is, okay, in January 2019, basically the primary is over. Trump has won every..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1557.117, "end": 1638.747, "time_label": "25:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Second thing is that in 2019, she got a job at Boeing. Boeing is a weapons manufacturer. They make airplanes, but they mainly make bombs and missiles, okay? So they love war. She sat on the board of Boeing, an extremely..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1638.747, "end": 1713.468, "time_label": "27:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "She'll be the one in the White House pushing for war in Iran. Escalating tension in Iran, okay? So Nikki Haley, okay, what's also interesting is, okay, in January 2019, basically the primary is over. Trump has won every..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "vp-pick-as-iran-signal-003", "text": "That is why the donor story matters. Haley remaining visible after the primary, raising money, and continuing to draw Republican votes are read as signs that powerful donors were positioning her for the vice presidency. The public explanation is popularity. The underlying explanation is preparation.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1638.747, "end": 1713.468, "time_label": "27:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "She'll be the one in the White House pushing for war in Iran. Escalating tension in Iran, okay? So Nikki Haley, okay, what's also interesting is, okay, in January 2019, basically the primary is over. Trump has won every..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1713.468, "end": 1801.23, "time_label": "28:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So she comes across as an extremely popular exception figure, okay? So this doesn't make sense, okay? So the conclusion is that given the way, the situation in the United States, it seems very likely Trump will win in 2..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] }, { "id": "vp-pick-as-iran-signal-004", "text": "The conclusion joins the two halves of the lecture. Biden's coalition weakens; Haley can turn the suburbs; and as vice president she would represent anti-Iranian forces inside the administration. The election forecast and the war forecast are the same forecast viewed from different angles.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "marks": [ { "text": "anti-Iranian forces inside the administration", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1713.468, "end": 1801.23, "time_label": "28:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So she comes across as an extremely popular exception figure, okay? So this doesn't make sense, okay? So the conclusion is that given the way, the situation in the United States, it seems very likely Trump will win in 2..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1713.468, "end": 1801.23, "time_label": "28:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So she comes across as an extremely popular exception figure, okay? So this doesn't make sense, okay? So the conclusion is that given the way, the situation in the United States, it seems very likely Trump will win in 2..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 1393, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1393.35, "end": 1457.62, "time_label": "23:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "he wins so if he picks Nikki Haley in August he will win okay I'm not completely sure that it will pick Nikki Haley I think that this is his best strategic move okay but Trump is not really predictable all right and who..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1557.117, "end": 1638.747, "time_label": "25:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Second thing is that in 2019, she got a job at Boeing. Boeing is a weapons manufacturer. They make airplanes, but they mainly make bombs and missiles, okay? So they love war. She sat on the board of Boeing, an extremely..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1713.468, "end": 1801.23, "time_label": "28:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So she comes across as an extremely popular exception figure, okay? So this doesn't make sense, okay? So the conclusion is that given the way, the situation in the United States, it seems very likely Trump will win in 2..." } ] }, { "id": "politics-is-theater", "heading": "Politics Is Theater", "time_range": "30:18-34:19", "summary": "The question about Haley refusing Trump is answered by treating the feud as staged performance and politicians as power-seeking opportunists.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "politics-is-theater-001", "text": "Jack's question is the obvious one: what if Haley holds a grudge and says no? The answer is that the bitterness is not treated as evidence against the prediction. It is treated as performance. Politics is theater, and the feud is useful because reconciliation needs a real-looking enemy.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "marks": [ { "text": "Politics is theater", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:legitimacy-fiction-reconciliation-theater" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1818.63, "end": 1898.4, "time_label": "30:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay. So Jack asked a great question, okay? He's like... He's like, what if Haley holds a grudge and says no, right? And quite honestly, she has been asked in the past, are you willing to serve as Trump's vice president..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:legitimacy-fiction-reconciliation-theater", "valid": true, "concept": "legitimacy-fiction", "title": null, "doc_title": "Legitimacy Fiction", "doc_slug": "lens/legitimacy-fiction", "url": "/lens/legitimacy-fiction/#legitimacy-fiction-reconciliation-theater", "text": "Reconciliation becomes legitimacy theater when a visible feud, insult, or impossible alliance is reversed into proof that a political actor has changed, matured, forgiven, listened, or become fit for a target audience's trust.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ] } ] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1818.63, "end": 1898.4, "time_label": "30:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay. So Jack asked a great question, okay? He's like... He's like, what if Haley holds a grudge and says no, right? And quite honestly, she has been asked in the past, are you willing to serve as Trump's vice president..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "politics-is-theater-002", "text": "The personal objection is also weakened by history: Haley served under Trump, reportedly got along with him, and had been considered as a running mate before. The lecture's point is that the visible fight should not be confused with the private transaction.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1818.63, "end": 1898.4, "time_label": "30:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay. So Jack asked a great question, okay? He's like... He's like, what if Haley holds a grudge and says no, right? And quite honestly, she has been asked in the past, are you willing to serve as Trump's vice president..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1898.44, "end": 1969.907, "time_label": "31:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So from 2016 to 2018, she was UN ambassador for Trump. And everyone says that the two got along really well. In fact, Trump was considering having her be his VP, running mate, in 2016. In 2020, he was thinking of droppi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] }, { "id": "politics-is-theater-003", "text": "The general rule is harsher: successful politicians are opportunists. They want power the way rich people want money and celebrities want fame. A vice presidency is one step from the presidency, and that is enough reason to accept. In the lecture's phrase, they will sell their own mother.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "marks": [ { "text": "they will sell their own mother", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1969.907, "end": 2059.1, "time_label": "32:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay? So that's the thing you need to know about politicians, okay? All they care about is political power. They will do anything to achieve political power. They will sell their own mother. Okay?..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1898.44, "end": 1969.907, "time_label": "31:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So from 2016 to 2018, she was UN ambassador for Trump. And everyone says that the two got along really well. In fact, Trump was considering having her be his VP, running mate, in 2016. In 2020, he was thinking of droppi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1969.907, "end": 2059.1, "time_label": "32:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay? So that's the thing you need to know about politicians, okay? All they care about is political power. They will do anything to achieve political power. They will sell their own mother. Okay?..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 1818, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1818.63, "end": 1898.4, "time_label": "30:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay. So Jack asked a great question, okay? He's like... He's like, what if Haley holds a grudge and says no, right? And quite honestly, she has been asked in the past, are you willing to serve as Trump's vice president..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1898.44, "end": 1969.907, "time_label": "31:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So from 2016 to 2018, she was UN ambassador for Trump. And everyone says that the two got along really well. In fact, Trump was considering having her be his VP, running mate, in 2016. In 2020, he was thinking of droppi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1969.907, "end": 2059.1, "time_label": "32:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay? So that's the thing you need to know about politicians, okay? All they care about is political power. They will do anything to achieve political power. They will sell their own mother. Okay?..." } ] }, { "id": "biden-wrong-lesson", "heading": "Biden's Wrong Lesson", "time_range": "34:19-39:31", "summary": "The Biden counterstrategy question becomes an argument that 2020 taught Biden to rely on conditions that no longer exist.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "biden-wrong-lesson-001", "text": "The second question asks what Biden can do to counter the Trump-Haley strategy. The answer begins by revisiting 2020: Biden looked weak, boring, old, and uncharismatic. Trump seemed able to fill rallies and dominate debates. On that basis, Biden should have lost.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1969.907, "end": 2059.1, "time_label": "32:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay? So that's the thing you need to know about politicians, okay? All they care about is political power. They will do anything to achieve political power. They will sell their own mother. Okay?..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 2059.3, "end": 2120.048, "time_label": "34:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? And the answer is this. If you look at 2020, everyone thought that Biden could not get the nomination. Okay? Why? Because he lacks charisma. Nobody really likes him. Okay? So when Biden goes to speak, there's no o..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2120.048, "end": 2189.99, "time_label": "35:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Because Trump's going to go out there and give speeches to 100,000 people. And they're going to love him. And they're going to go and vote for him. Okay? Biden gives a speech. Everyone falls asleep. And under the debate..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] }, { "id": "biden-wrong-lesson-002", "text": "Then crisis did the campaigning for him. George Floyd mobilized voters against Trump. The pandemic stopped normal campaigning. Biden could sit in his basement and do nothing while surrogates and events carried the anti-Trump coalition.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "marks": [ { "text": "sit in his basement and do nothing", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2120.048, "end": 2189.99, "time_label": "35:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Because Trump's going to go out there and give speeches to 100,000 people. And they're going to love him. And they're going to go and vote for him. Okay? Biden gives a speech. Everyone falls asleep. And under the debate..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2120.048, "end": 2189.99, "time_label": "35:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Because Trump's going to go out there and give speeches to 100,000 people. And they're going to love him. And they're going to go and vote for him. Okay? Biden gives a speech. Everyone falls asleep. And under the debate..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2190.11, "end": 2211.73, "time_label": "36:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "hey, if I just sit in my basement all day and make no mistakes, my surrogates, the Democrats, they're going to be like, what? They'll fire up the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, they'll go..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "biden-wrong-lesson-003", "text": "The wrong lesson is that 'I'm not Trump' is a strategy. In 2020, voters had four years of Trump and wanted him out. In 2024, they have also seen four years of Biden. The election becomes a lower-energy comparison of failures: who sucks more, Biden or Trump?", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "marks": [ { "text": "who sucks more, Biden or Trump", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2217.3, "end": 2291.71, "time_label": "36:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "The problem with this idea is, okay, in 2020, the American people had four years of Trump, and they know he sucks. The problem now is the American people have seen four years of Biden, and Biden sucks as well, okay? And..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2190.11, "end": 2211.73, "time_label": "36:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "hey, if I just sit in my basement all day and make no mistakes, my surrogates, the Democrats, they're going to be like, what? They'll fire up the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, they'll go..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2217.3, "end": 2291.71, "time_label": "36:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "The problem with this idea is, okay, in 2020, the American people had four years of Trump, and they know he sucks. The problem now is the American people have seen four years of Biden, and Biden sucks as well, okay? And..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "biden-wrong-lesson-004", "text": "That turnout environment favors the side with stronger feeling. The Republican coalition is described as more passionate about Trump than the Democratic coalition is about Biden. Biden's problem is not just a bad tactic; it is age, energy, and the difficulty of changing a political self that already won once by not changing.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2217.3, "end": 2291.71, "time_label": "36:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "The problem with this idea is, okay, in 2020, the American people had four years of Trump, and they know he sucks. The problem now is the American people have seen four years of Biden, and Biden sucks as well, okay? And..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2291.97, "end": 2371.6, "time_label": "38:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So why can't the Senate? Why can't something happen this year, right? And unfortunately, because Biden is so old, he's 81, he doesn't have the energy to change the way he is, you understand? It's much easier for him to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ], "start": 2059, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 2059.3, "end": 2120.048, "time_label": "34:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? And the answer is this. If you look at 2020, everyone thought that Biden could not get the nomination. Okay? Why? Because he lacks charisma. Nobody really likes him. Okay? So when Biden goes to speak, there's no o..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2190.11, "end": 2211.73, "time_label": "36:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "hey, if I just sit in my basement all day and make no mistakes, my surrogates, the Democrats, they're going to be like, what? They'll fire up the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, they'll go..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2291.97, "end": 2371.6, "time_label": "38:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So why can't the Senate? Why can't something happen this year, right? And unfortunately, because Biden is so old, he's 81, he doesn't have the energy to change the way he is, you understand? It's much easier for him to..." } ] }, { "id": "test-the-model", "heading": "Test The Model", "time_range": "39:32-41:26", "summary": "The lecture closes by naming its own uncertainty: the prediction exists to be tested and revised.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "test-the-model-001", "text": "The lecture does not end by pretending certainty. Trump could pick someone else, and J.D. Vance is named as a plausible alternative because of loyalty to Trump. Trump could also lose. The bet is Haley, but the bet is explicitly marked as a bet.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "marks": [ { "text": "J.D. Vance is named as a plausible alternative", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2372.54, "end": 2427.3, "time_label": "39:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? So you know what? It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, okay? Possibly someone named J.D. Vance, okay? The only thing you need to know about J.D. Vance is he's very loyal to Trump. It's possi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2291.97, "end": 2371.6, "time_label": "38:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So why can't the Senate? Why can't something happen this year, right? And unfortunately, because Biden is so old, he's 81, he doesn't have the energy to change the way he is, you understand? It's much easier for him to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2372.54, "end": 2427.3, "time_label": "39:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? So you know what? It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, okay? Possibly someone named J.D. Vance, okay? The only thing you need to know about J.D. Vance is he's very loyal to Trump. It's possi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "test-the-model-002", "text": "The point of making the prediction is methodological. Build an analytical model, make predictions, test the model against reality, and then change the analysis when reality disproves it. A failed prediction is not useless if it shows where the model was wrong.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "marks": [ { "text": "test the model against reality", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2291.97, "end": 2371.6, "time_label": "38:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So why can't the Senate? Why can't something happen this year, right? And unfortunately, because Biden is so old, he's 81, he doesn't have the energy to change the way he is, you understand? It's much easier for him to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2427.3, "end": 2486.84, "time_label": "40:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the world. By building analytical models that we can then test against reality and then b..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "change the analysis when reality disproves it", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2372.54, "end": 2427.3, "time_label": "39:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? So you know what? It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, okay? Possibly someone named J.D. Vance, okay? The only thing you need to know about J.D. Vance is he's very loyal to Trump. It's possi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2291.97, "end": 2371.6, "time_label": "38:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So why can't the Senate? Why can't something happen this year, right? And unfortunately, because Biden is so old, he's 81, he doesn't have the energy to change the way he is, you understand? It's much easier for him to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2372.54, "end": 2427.3, "time_label": "39:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? So you know what? It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, okay? Possibly someone named J.D. Vance, okay? The only thing you need to know about J.D. Vance is he's very loyal to Trump. It's possi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2427.3, "end": 2486.84, "time_label": "40:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the world. By building analytical models that we can then test against reality and then b..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "test-the-model-003", "text": "That method loops back to Iran. If Haley becomes vice president, the lecture expects her to push war with Iran and expects Trump to go along. The next analytical task would be to understand how America would fight that war and how Iran would respond.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2427.3, "end": 2486.84, "time_label": "40:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the world. By building analytical models that we can then test against reality and then b..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ], "start": 2372, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2291.97, "end": 2371.6, "time_label": "38:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So why can't the Senate? Why can't something happen this year, right? And unfortunately, because Biden is so old, he's 81, he doesn't have the energy to change the way he is, you understand? It's much easier for him to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2372.54, "end": 2427.3, "time_label": "39:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? So you know what? It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, okay? Possibly someone named J.D. Vance, okay? The only thing you need to know about J.D. Vance is he's very loyal to Trump. It's possi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2427.3, "end": 2486.84, "time_label": "40:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the world. By building analytical models that we can then test against reality and then b..." } ] } ], "questions": [ { "question": "What if Haley holds a grudge and says no?", "answer": "The answer is that the feud is treated as theater rather than a final obstacle. Trump and Haley had worked together before, and the public bitterness would make a later reconciliation more dramatic. Haley's incentive is also power: the vice presidency puts her one step from the presidency.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1818.63, "end": 1898.4, "time_label": "30:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay. So Jack asked a great question, okay? He's like... He's like, what if Haley holds a grudge and says no, right? And quite honestly, she has been asked in the past, are you willing to serve as Trump's vice president..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1898.44, "end": 1969.907, "time_label": "31:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So from 2016 to 2018, she was UN ambassador for Trump. And everyone says that the two got along really well. In fact, Trump was considering having her be his VP, running mate, in 2016. In 2020, he was thinking of droppi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1969.907, "end": 2059.1, "time_label": "32:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay? So that's the thing you need to know about politicians, okay? All they care about is political power. They will do anything to achieve political power. They will sell their own mother. Okay?..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "The answer is that the feud is treated as theater rather than a final obstacle. Trump and Haley had worked together before, and the public bitterness would make a later reconciliation more dramatic. Haley's incentive is also power: the vice presidency puts her one step from the presidency.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1818.63, "end": 1898.4, "time_label": "30:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay. So Jack asked a great question, okay? He's like... He's like, what if Haley holds a grudge and says no, right? And quite honestly, she has been asked in the past, are you willing to serve as Trump's vice president..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1898.44, "end": 1969.907, "time_label": "31:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So from 2016 to 2018, she was UN ambassador for Trump. And everyone says that the two got along really well. In fact, Trump was considering having her be his VP, running mate, in 2016. In 2020, he was thinking of droppi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1969.907, "end": 2059.1, "time_label": "32:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay? So that's the thing you need to know about politicians, okay? All they care about is political power. They will do anything to achieve political power. They will sell their own mother. Okay?..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "question": "What can Biden do to counter Trump's strategy or the polls?", "answer": "The lecture's answer is that Biden has no strong counterstrategy because 2020 taught him the wrong lesson. He won after George Floyd and the pandemic changed the campaign, so he now relies on being not Trump even though voters have also judged four years of Biden.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1969.907, "end": 2059.1, "time_label": "32:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay? So that's the thing you need to know about politicians, okay? All they care about is political power. They will do anything to achieve political power. They will sell their own mother. Okay?..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2120.048, "end": 2189.99, "time_label": "35:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Because Trump's going to go out there and give speeches to 100,000 people. And they're going to love him. And they're going to go and vote for him. Okay? Biden gives a speech. Everyone falls asleep. And under the debate..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2217.3, "end": 2291.71, "time_label": "36:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "The problem with this idea is, okay, in 2020, the American people had four years of Trump, and they know he sucks. The problem now is the American people have seen four years of Biden, and Biden sucks as well, okay? And..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2291.97, "end": 2371.6, "time_label": "38:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So why can't the Senate? Why can't something happen this year, right? And unfortunately, because Biden is so old, he's 81, he doesn't have the energy to change the way he is, you understand? It's much easier for him to..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "The lecture's answer is that Biden has no strong counterstrategy because 2020 taught him the wrong lesson. He won after George Floyd and the pandemic changed the campaign, so he now relies on being not Trump even though voters have also judged four years of Biden.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1969.907, "end": 2059.1, "time_label": "32:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay? So that's the thing you need to know about politicians, okay? All they care about is political power. They will do anything to achieve political power. They will sell their own mother. Okay?..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2120.048, "end": 2189.99, "time_label": "35:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Because Trump's going to go out there and give speeches to 100,000 people. And they're going to love him. And they're going to go and vote for him. Okay? Biden gives a speech. Everyone falls asleep. And under the debate..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2217.3, "end": 2291.71, "time_label": "36:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "The problem with this idea is, okay, in 2020, the American people had four years of Trump, and they know he sucks. The problem now is the American people have seen four years of Biden, and Biden sucks as well, okay? And..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2291.97, "end": 2371.6, "time_label": "38:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So why can't the Senate? Why can't something happen this year, right? And unfortunately, because Biden is so old, he's 81, he doesn't have the energy to change the way he is, you understand? It's much easier for him to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] } ], "archive_note": "The archive keeps the repaired transcript, boundary decisions, semantic packet outputs, and compiled semantic bundle for predictive-history-exrk-85630k. This page is the compressed reading layer; the transcript remains available for checking exact wording, dated prediction status, and noisy ASR spans." }, "transcript": [ { "id": "seg-0001", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "start": 0.82, "end": 88.92, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Okay, so let's begin class. And today we are discussing whether or not Trump will win in November. And I'm making the prediction that he will win in November and that he will pick Nikki Haley as his vice president. Okay, so let me make you the argument today. Okay, so let's first discuss why Biden won in 2020 and why it's possible that he may lose this year. Okay, so in 2020, it was a very special year in American politics because it was the largest turnout in American history since about 1900. Okay, so 74 million people voted for Trump. For Biden, 81 million people voted for him. And two... Two out of every three American adults came out to vote. Okay, so it was the largest turnout in American history. It doesn't... It sounds like a very lopsided victory for Biden, 81 million versus 74 million. But because America has an electoral college system, which is not a direct democracy, actually, the margin of victory was only 65,000 votes, votes.", "word_count": 174, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-001", "start": 0.82, "end": 3.42, "text": "Okay, so let's begin class.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-002", "start": 3.88, "end": 8.74, "text": "And today we are discussing whether or not Trump will win in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-003", "start": 8.74, "end": 13.38, "text": "November. And I'm making the prediction that he will win in November", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-004", "start": 13.38, "end": 18.38, "text": "and that he will pick Nikki Haley as his vice president.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-005", "start": 19.34, "end": 21.71, "text": "Okay, so let me make you the argument today.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-006", "start": 22.73, "end": 28.53, "text": "Okay, so let's first discuss why Biden won in 2020 and why", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-007", "start": 28.53, "end": 33.33, "text": "it's possible that he may lose this year.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-008", "start": 33.81, "end": 38.79, "text": "Okay, so in 2020, it was a very special year in American", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-009", "start": 38.79, "end": 46.65, "text": "politics because it was the largest turnout in American history since about", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-010", "start": 46.65, "end": 51.13, "text": "1900. Okay, so 74 million people voted for Trump.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-011", "start": 51.74, "end": 55.1, "text": "For Biden, 81 million people voted for him.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-012", "start": 55.9, "end": 58.38, "text": "And two...", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-013", "start": 58.72, "end": 61.2, "text": "Two out of every three American adults came out to vote.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-014", "start": 61.42, "end": 64.14, "text": "Okay, so it was the largest turnout in American history.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-015", "start": 65.56, "end": 66.52, "text": "It doesn't...", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-016", "start": 66.52, "end": 71.3, "text": "It sounds like a very lopsided victory for Biden,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-017", "start": 71.54, "end": 73.24, "text": "81 million versus 74 million.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-018", "start": 73.48, "end": 76.96, "text": "But because America has an electoral college system,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-019", "start": 78.96, "end": 81.24, "text": "which is not", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-020", "start": 81.24, "end": 87.6, "text": "a direct democracy, actually, the margin of victory was only 65,000", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-021", "start": 87.6, "end": 88.92, "text": "votes, votes.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "5e08dc868c3a6716cd6f1be943b2fec339a3fd236aee5b705beed9806887caa2", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0001", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=0s", "time_label": "0:00", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0002", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "start": 89.04, "end": 157.77, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Assuming that if 65,000 people in key battleground states flip their votes, then Trump would have won. Okay, so the margin of victory was very, very close, as is usually the case in highly contested American elections. So, let's understand the coalition that brought Biden into the White House, okay? So, the first major component of this coalition are Black people. 1 % of all blacks voted for Biden, only 8 % voted for Trump. That's a huge majority for Biden. So why did so many black people vote for Biden in 2020? Well, first of all, it's because Biden was Obama's vice president for eight years. And so a lot of older black people had a certain loyalty to him, okay? They felt that we owe this man because he served loyally to our man Barack Obama for years. And so now we must bring him into the White House.", "word_count": 152, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-001", "start": 89.04, "end": 94, "text": "Assuming that if 65,000 people in key battleground states flip their", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-002", "start": 94, "end": 96.14, "text": "votes, then Trump would have won.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-003", "start": 96.62, "end": 99, "text": "Okay, so the margin of victory was very,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-004", "start": 99.06, "end": 104.2, "text": "very close, as is usually the case in highly contested American elections.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-005", "start": 105.14, "end": 110.68, "text": "So, let's understand the coalition that brought Biden into the White House,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-006", "start": 110.86, "end": 117.97, "text": "okay? So, the first major component of this coalition are Black people.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-007", "start": 119.71, "end": 122.69, "text": "1 % of all blacks voted for Biden,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-008", "start": 122.81, "end": 124.35, "text": "only 8 % voted for Trump.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-009", "start": 125.1, "end": 128.44, "text": "That's a huge majority for Biden.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-010", "start": 129.2, "end": 133.94, "text": "So why did so many black people vote for Biden in 2020?", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-011", "start": 134.76, "end": 141.09, "text": "Well, first of all, it's because Biden was Obama's vice president for", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-012", "start": 141.09, "end": 141.63, "text": "eight years.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-013", "start": 141.87, "end": 145.97, "text": "And so a lot of older black people had a certain loyalty", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-014", "start": 145.97, "end": 147.51, "text": "to him, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-015", "start": 147.65, "end": 152.61, "text": "They felt that we owe this man because he served loyally to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-016", "start": 152.61, "end": 154.87, "text": "our man Barack Obama for years.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-017", "start": 155.23, "end": 156.43, "text": "And so now we must", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-018", "start": 156.43, "end": 157.77, "text": "bring him into the White House.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "88bdec18d192ad3f396507d02b34143f62bf0d2447b83b4cfa154fc7cf0b5ed9", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0002", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=89s", "time_label": "1:29", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0003", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "start": 158.55, "end": 230.208, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "But this year the debt is paid off, right? So they won't feel so loyal to Biden, okay? Also in 2020, there's something called a George Floyd protest. So what happened was that in May 2020, a black man in Minneapolis, George Floyd, he was strangled to death by a white police officer. It was captured on video and it caused a national uproar. In fact, there were riots and protests throughout the country and Trump came out and did not acknowledge the pain that black people felt because of this death. And so black people felt antipathy towards Trump, okay? So these are the two major reasons why this happened. and why black people voted for Biden in 2020. But this year, Trump's not in office, Biden's in office. So black people are asking the question, what has Biden done for us these past four years? And unfortunately, the answer is not that much.", "word_count": 155, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-001", "start": 158.55, "end": 160.55, "text": "But this year the debt is paid off,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-002", "start": 160.69, "end": 164.03, "text": "right? So they won't feel so loyal to Biden,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-003", "start": 164.17, "end": 170.08, "text": "okay? Also in 2020, there's something called a George Floyd protest.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-004", "start": 172.04, "end": 176.18, "text": "So what happened was that in May 2020,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-005", "start": 176.66, "end": 178.74, "text": "a black man in Minneapolis,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-006", "start": 179.04, "end": 183.62, "text": "George Floyd, he was strangled to death by a white police officer.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-007", "start": 183.8, "end": 187.4, "text": "It was captured on video and it caused a national uproar.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-008", "start": 187.9, "end": 194.06, "text": "In fact, there were riots and protests throughout the country and Trump", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-009", "start": 194.06, "end": 199.88, "text": "came out and did not acknowledge the pain that black people felt", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-010", "start": 199.88, "end": 201.38, "text": "because of this death.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-011", "start": 201.62, "end": 206.88, "text": "And so black people felt antipathy towards Trump,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-012", "start": 207, "end": 209.72, "text": "okay? So these are the two major reasons why this happened.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-013", "start": 209.72, "end": 213.1, "text": "and why black people voted for Biden in 2020.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-014", "start": 214.99, "end": 219, "text": "But this year, Trump's not in office,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-015", "start": 219.24, "end": 220.42, "text": "Biden's in office.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-016", "start": 220.66, "end": 221.86, "text": "So black people are asking the question,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-017", "start": 222.5, "end": 224.78, "text": "what has Biden done for us these past four years?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-018", "start": 226.05, "end": 229.75, "text": "And unfortunately, the answer is not that", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-019", "start": 229.75, "end": 230.208, "text": "much.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "f07941f9b2da511efec13242b400f3a011fae118f3e5ce1aa113792b2423afc3", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0003", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=158s", "time_label": "2:38", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0004", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "start": 230.208, "end": 300.65, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "And in fact, you can make the argument that Biden has really hurt the standard of living of black people, why? Because inflation has gone up, okay? When inflation goes up, it usually hurts poor people the most, okay? The standard of living goes way down. Also, illegal immigration has gone up, okay? So in 2020, when Trump left office, there were about 10 million illegal immigrants in America. Now there are 20 million illegal immigrants in America, and it seems like Biden's doing nothing to stop this trend. And of course, when illegal immigrants come to the country, they usually take the jobs of poor people, okay? They bring wages down, and that again, hurts black people. And then third is Ukraine. So while the standard of living for black people and other poor people in America are going down, America is sending tens of billions of dollars to Ukraine to fight a war that has nothing to do with America.", "word_count": 162, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-001", "start": 230.208, "end": 235.25, "text": "And in fact, you can make the argument that Biden has", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-002", "start": 235.48, "end": 238.34, "text": "really hurt the standard of living of black people,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-003", "start": 238.44, "end": 243.35, "text": "why? Because inflation has gone up,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-004", "start": 243.39, "end": 245.55, "text": "okay? When inflation goes up,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-005", "start": 246.47, "end": 248.63, "text": "it usually hurts poor people the most,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-006", "start": 248.75, "end": 250.75, "text": "okay? The standard of living goes way down.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-007", "start": 251.9, "end": 256.5, "text": "Also, illegal immigration has gone up,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-008", "start": 256.6, "end": 259.82, "text": "okay? So in 2020, when Trump left office,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-009", "start": 260.1, "end": 263.16, "text": "there were about 10 million illegal immigrants in America.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-010", "start": 263.52, "end": 266.54, "text": "Now there are 20 million illegal immigrants in America,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-011", "start": 266.78, "end": 271.06, "text": "and it seems like Biden's doing nothing to stop this trend.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-012", "start": 271.96, "end": 274.77, "text": "And of course, when illegal immigrants come to the country,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-013", "start": 274.95, "end": 277.51, "text": "they usually take the jobs of poor people,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-014", "start": 277.61, "end": 278.95, "text": "okay? They bring wages down,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-015", "start": 279.11, "end": 280.87, "text": "and that again, hurts black people.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-016", "start": 281.32, "end": 283.38, "text": "And then third is Ukraine.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-017", "start": 284.7, "end": 289.65, "text": "So while the standard of living for black people and other poor", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-018", "start": 289.65, "end": 291.13, "text": "people in America are going down,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-019", "start": 291.94, "end": 296.23, "text": "America is sending tens of billions of dollars to Ukraine to fight", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-020", "start": 296.23, "end": 297.87, "text": "a war that has nothing to", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-021", "start": 297.87, "end": 300.65, "text": "do with America.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "9e9002aeb78f9cc8733a8b99e4aa89f8c4f49002b42d501dbfdfdf2d9167acc6", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0004", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=230s", "time_label": "3:50", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0005", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "start": 301.15, "end": 379.92, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "So many Americans see this as just bad leadership, okay? So that's black people. And recent polls show that actually Biden's lead with black people is not as much as it was in 2020, okay? So this lead is going down. Young people, okay? Well, young people tend to vote Democratic in all elections, and they were extremely galvanized. To vote in 2020, they say, saw Trump as this very hateful racist that they must remove from office, right? And they were driven to believe this because of the George Floyd protests. Unfortunately, this year, young people may not feel compelled to vote for Biden. In fact, a lot of young people are choosing to sit out this election. Why? You guys know? Gaza, okay? So as you know, right now, throughout America on college campuses, young people are protesting the war in Gaza. So these young people are not gonna vote for Trump, but they probably will not vote for Biden as a protest against American policy via the Israel, okay?", "word_count": 172, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-001", "start": 301.15, "end": 304.55, "text": "So many Americans see this as just bad leadership,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-002", "start": 304.77, "end": 306.54, "text": "okay? So that's black people.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-003", "start": 307.34, "end": 315.16, "text": "And recent polls show that actually Biden's lead with black people is", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-004", "start": 315.16, "end": 317.28, "text": "not as much as it was in 2020,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-005", "start": 317.48, "end": 319.78, "text": "okay? So this lead is going down.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-006", "start": 320.3, "end": 322.34, "text": "Young people, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-007", "start": 322.58, "end": 326.44, "text": "Well, young people tend to vote Democratic in all elections,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-008", "start": 327.44, "end": 330.14, "text": "and they were extremely galvanized.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-009", "start": 331.18, "end": 333.16, "text": "To vote in 2020, they say,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-010", "start": 333.2, "end": 338.36, "text": "saw Trump as this very hateful racist that they must remove from", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-011", "start": 338.36, "end": 339.08, "text": "office, right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-012", "start": 339.22, "end": 342.4, "text": "And they were driven to believe this because of the George Floyd", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-013", "start": 342.4, "end": 349.9, "text": "protests. Unfortunately, this year, young people may not feel compelled to vote", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-014", "start": 349.9, "end": 350.46, "text": "for Biden.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-015", "start": 350.6, "end": 355.08, "text": "In fact, a lot of young people are choosing to sit out", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-016", "start": 355.08, "end": 355.46, "text": "this election.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-017", "start": 356.1, "end": 357.5, "text": "Why? You guys know?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-018", "start": 358.76, "end": 359.66, "text": "Gaza, okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-019", "start": 359.84, "end": 362.7, "text": "So as you know, right now,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-020", "start": 362.72, "end": 364.46, "text": "throughout America on college campuses,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-021", "start": 364.74, "end": 367.74, "text": "young people are protesting the war in Gaza.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-022", "start": 369.12, "end": 372.2, "text": "So these young people are not gonna vote for Trump,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-023", "start": 372.88, "end": 374.06, "text": "but they probably", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-024", "start": 374.06, "end": 378.96, "text": "will not vote for Biden as a protest against American policy via", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-025", "start": 378.96, "end": 379.92, "text": "the Israel, okay?", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "39c647e77285cd37be81b2490dd66af423e7723e77aef7208fe4dc37ae116038", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0005", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=301s", "time_label": "5:01", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0006", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "start": 380.88, "end": 442.08, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Now let's look at the college educated. Okay, so 70 % of people with college degrees voted for Biden. These are what we call the, the coastal elite, right? The coastal professional managerial elite. And they usually overwhelmingly vote Democratic, and this year, they will still stay the same, but they will be less enthusiastic because of what they perceive to be poor global leadership. Biden, under Biden's watch, Ukraine blew up, but so did Gaza. And many are starting to feel that it's because Biden comes a crime, but so did Gaza. And so they're gonna vote for Biden as a protest against Putin. And so they're gonna vote for Biden as a protest against Putin. Okay? So college educated people will still overwhelmingly vote Democratic. That is the core Democratic base, but they'll be less enthusiastic about Biden, and they'll vote primarily against Trump, okay?", "word_count": 147, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-001", "start": 380.88, "end": 382.58, "text": "Now let's look at the college educated.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-002", "start": 383.02, "end": 387.82, "text": "Okay, so 70 % of people with college degrees voted for Biden.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-003", "start": 388.69, "end": 391.01, "text": "These are what we call the,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-004", "start": 392.65, "end": 394.79, "text": "the coastal elite, right?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-005", "start": 394.91, "end": 398.45, "text": "The coastal professional managerial elite.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-006", "start": 398.69, "end": 402.15, "text": "And they usually overwhelmingly vote Democratic,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-007", "start": 402.35, "end": 404.29, "text": "and this year, they will still stay the same,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-008", "start": 404.94, "end": 409.57, "text": "but they will be less enthusiastic because of what they perceive to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-009", "start": 409.57, "end": 411.73, "text": "be poor global leadership.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-010", "start": 412.87, "end": 416.23, "text": "Biden, under Biden's watch, Ukraine blew up,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-011", "start": 416.29, "end": 417.75, "text": "but so did Gaza.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-012", "start": 418.41, "end": 422.43, "text": "And many are starting to feel that it's because Biden comes a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-013", "start": 422.43, "end": 422.79, "text": "crime, but so did Gaza.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-014", "start": 422.79, "end": 427.69, "text": "And so they're gonna vote for Biden as a protest against Putin.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-015", "start": 428.15, "end": 428.39, "text": "And so they're gonna vote for Biden as a protest against Putin.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-016", "start": 428.46, "end": 433.3, "text": "Okay? So college educated people will still overwhelmingly vote Democratic.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-017", "start": 433.5, "end": 435.22, "text": "That is the core Democratic base,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-018", "start": 435.4, "end": 438.28, "text": "but they'll be less enthusiastic about Biden,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-019", "start": 438.4, "end": 441.5, "text": "and they'll vote primarily against", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-020", "start": 441.5, "end": 442.08, "text": "Trump, okay?", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "f4593dd6d4ebd818f532624f40cd9ec475ba71624872320f54b7fde9ffc6142a", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0006", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=380s", "time_label": "6:20", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0007", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "start": 443.24, "end": 532.2, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Women, okay? So 54 % of women voted for Biden. 44 % voted for Trump. Okay? And again, because Trump is seen as this hateful figure, we expect that women will still consistently vote Democratic this year, okay? And also because of abortion issues, right? So women are very passionate about abortion, and they will come out and vote for Biden to ensure that abortion rights are protected. Last, let's look at suburban voters, okay? So the suburbs. The suburbs are between the cities, the urban areas, and the rural areas, okay? Cities, urban areas, overwhelmingly support the Democratic Party. Rural areas overwhelmingly support the Republican Party. So the suburbs are where the battleground is. And so if you look at 19, sorry, 2016, when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton, only 45 % of the suburbs voted for Clinton, which allowed Trump to defeat her in the election, okay? Now, what's interesting is that in 2020, this flipped, and 54 % of suburban voters voted for Biden.", "word_count": 166, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-001", "start": 443.24, "end": 444.14, "text": "Women, okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-002", "start": 444.62, "end": 450.28, "text": "So 54 % of women voted for Biden.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-003", "start": 450.5, "end": 453.22, "text": "44 % voted for Trump.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-004", "start": 453.24, "end": 459.58, "text": "Okay? And again, because Trump is seen as this hateful figure,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-005", "start": 460.3, "end": 465.24, "text": "we expect that women will still consistently vote Democratic this year,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-006", "start": 465.36, "end": 468.76, "text": "okay? And also because of abortion issues,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-007", "start": 468.92, "end": 472.62, "text": "right? So women are very passionate about abortion,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-008", "start": 473.16, "end": 477.34, "text": "and they will come out and vote for Biden to ensure that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-009", "start": 477.34, "end": 479.08, "text": "abortion rights are protected.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-010", "start": 479.66, "end": 482.42, "text": "Last, let's look at suburban voters,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-011", "start": 482.56, "end": 484.18, "text": "okay? So the suburbs.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-012", "start": 484.32, "end": 485.88, "text": "The suburbs are between the cities,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-013", "start": 485.98, "end": 487.6, "text": "the urban areas, and the rural areas,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-014", "start": 487.7, "end": 492.5, "text": "okay? Cities, urban areas, overwhelmingly support the Democratic Party.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-015", "start": 493.02, "end": 497.14, "text": "Rural areas overwhelmingly support the Republican Party.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-016", "start": 497.48, "end": 501.18, "text": "So the suburbs are where the battleground is.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-017", "start": 501.88, "end": 503.34, "text": "And so if you look at 19,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-018", "start": 503.88, "end": 509.98, "text": "sorry, 2016, when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-019", "start": 510.62, "end": 516.52, "text": "only 45 % of the suburbs voted for Clinton,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-020", "start": 517.41, "end": 520.43, "text": "which allowed Trump to defeat her in the election,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-021", "start": 520.59, "end": 524.85, "text": "okay? Now, what's interesting is that in 2020,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-022", "start": 525.31, "end": 526.83, "text": "this flipped, and", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-023", "start": 526.83, "end": 532.2, "text": "54 % of suburban voters voted for Biden.", "word_count": 8 } ], "text_sha256": "af4b761050c3c0878653c46eb5995cfde747b2654a4891637730d5e974e0a0b7", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0007", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=443s", "time_label": "7:23", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0008", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "start": 532.94, "end": 617.255, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "That's a flip of 2 million voters, okay? So in elections, usually it's a suburban vote that determines the election, because the swing voters. So for Trump to win this year, he needs to win the suburban vote. He won that in 2016, he lost that in 2020. So let's examine very quickly why the suburbs went Biden in 2020. And there are three major reasons. The first is the media narrative. So what's happening throughout Trump's presidency is basically the entire mainstream media got together and criticized Trump, okay? So the first major criticism of Trump, if you remember, is he was a Russian asset, okay? He was a paid Putin puppet. And of course, that was just a complete lie, what we call a Russiagate, okay? But then they start to say that Trump was a developed, developed, developed, developed, developed, developed, developed, developed, divisive figure, okay? And this idea caught the imagination of the suburbs, okay?", "word_count": 159, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-001", "start": 532.94, "end": 536, "text": "That's a flip of 2 million voters,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-002", "start": 536.36, "end": 543.42, "text": "okay? So in elections, usually it's a suburban vote that determines the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-003", "start": 543.42, "end": 545.88, "text": "election, because the swing voters.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-004", "start": 547.17, "end": 550.51, "text": "So for Trump to win this year,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-005", "start": 550.69, "end": 553.91, "text": "he needs to win the suburban vote.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-006", "start": 554.09, "end": 555.95, "text": "He won that in 2016,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-007", "start": 556.21, "end": 557.35, "text": "he lost that in 2020.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-008", "start": 558.65, "end": 567.66, "text": "So let's examine very quickly why the suburbs went Biden in 2020.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-009", "start": 567.96, "end": 569.88, "text": "And there are three major reasons.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-010", "start": 570.04, "end": 573.52, "text": "The first is the media narrative.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-011", "start": 575.62, "end": 583.49, "text": "So what's happening throughout Trump's presidency is basically the entire mainstream media", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-012", "start": 583.49, "end": 588.36, "text": "got together and criticized Trump,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-013", "start": 588.64, "end": 591.08, "text": "okay? So the first major criticism of Trump,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-014", "start": 591.24, "end": 594.92, "text": "if you remember, is he was a Russian asset,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-015", "start": 595.2, "end": 598.44, "text": "okay? He was a paid Putin puppet.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-016", "start": 598.68, "end": 601.54, "text": "And of course, that was just a complete lie,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-017", "start": 601.7, "end": 602.7, "text": "what we call a Russiagate,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-018", "start": 602.8, "end": 607.06, "text": "okay? But then they start to say that Trump was a developed,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-019", "start": 607.06, "end": 607.06, "text": "developed, developed, developed, developed, developed,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-020", "start": 607.06, "end": 609.22, "text": "developed, developed, divisive figure, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-021", "start": 609.79, "end": 611.43, "text": "And this idea", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-022", "start": 611.43, "end": 616.9, "text": "caught the imagination of the suburbs,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-023", "start": 617.1, "end": 617.255, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "bcd420adfb90134d044b6b55507c31e7944a23e0670d90a720544d880af8241f", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0008", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=532s", "time_label": "8:52", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0009", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "start": 617.255, "end": 682.4, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Because if you live in the suburbs, you tend to be middle class, you tend to be pretty wealthy and more educated. So you like the status quo. You want a leader who's conservative and who's a unifier. And throughout the Trump presidency, we saw the polarization of politics. The left and the right hate each other, and they fought all the time. And what really showed this was the George Floyd protests, right? So you had protesters rioting in the streets. And Trump was like, let's send in the military to crush the protesters. And so people in the suburbs were very worried about this. They thought that a leader, the president, should be a uniter, right? And Biden came across as extremely steady, as very establishment. As someone who could unite both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, okay? That was his perception in 2020. So that's the first major reason why the suburbs went Biden.", "word_count": 159, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-001", "start": 617.255, "end": 618.34, "text": "Because if you live in the suburbs,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-002", "start": 618.68, "end": 620.28, "text": "you tend to be middle class,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-003", "start": 620.64, "end": 622.58, "text": "you tend to be pretty wealthy and more educated.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-004", "start": 622.8, "end": 623.92, "text": "So you like the status quo.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-005", "start": 624.24, "end": 629.46, "text": "You want a leader who's conservative and who's a unifier.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-006", "start": 629.98, "end": 631.42, "text": "And throughout the Trump presidency,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-007", "start": 631.76, "end": 635.04, "text": "we saw the polarization of politics.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-008", "start": 635.46, "end": 637.86, "text": "The left and the right hate each other,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-009", "start": 637.92, "end": 639.8, "text": "and they fought all the time.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-010", "start": 640.12, "end": 644.56, "text": "And what really showed this was the George Floyd protests,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-011", "start": 644.84, "end": 649.94, "text": "right? So you had protesters rioting in the streets.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-012", "start": 650.4, "end": 654.08, "text": "And Trump was like, let's send in the military to crush the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-013", "start": 654.08, "end": 658.9, "text": "protesters. And so people in the suburbs were very worried about this.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-014", "start": 659, "end": 660.16, "text": "They thought that a leader,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-015", "start": 660.22, "end": 662.44, "text": "the president, should be a uniter,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-016", "start": 662.66, "end": 667.96, "text": "right? And Biden came across as extremely steady,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-017", "start": 668.22, "end": 670.02, "text": "as very establishment.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-018", "start": 670.54, "end": 674.44, "text": "As someone who could unite both the Republican Party and the Democratic", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-019", "start": 674.44, "end": 675.12, "text": "Party, okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-020", "start": 675.22, "end": 678.16, "text": "That was his perception in 2020.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-021", "start": 678.48, "end": 679.72, "text": "So that's the first major", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-022", "start": 679.72, "end": 682.4, "text": "reason why the suburbs went Biden.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "2eecf7c92855f5ebb2c190806de265434b9617afeef57cb72ff94a0221d0ccfe", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0009", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=617s", "time_label": "10:17", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0010", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "start": 683.16, "end": 753.29, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Second was the pandemic. So as you know, COVID hit the United States, and the suburbs were extremely freaked out about this because they tend to have children who go to school, they tend to be older, and we see that as a big deal in the suburbs of the United States. And they thought that Trump's handling of the pandemic was very incompetent, okay? He was an outsider, a political outsider, but that meant he could not get things done in Washington. Okay, so that's the second problem with Trump. And the third reason why the suburbs went, Biden is Kamala Harris, okay? And this is key. Biden picked Kamala Harris to be his vice president, to be his running mate. And Kamala Harris, let me tell you a little about Kamala Harris. Her father is Jamaican, her mother is Indian. And she has a younger sister, but when she was young, her dad left the family.", "word_count": 158, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-001", "start": 683.16, "end": 685.78, "text": "Second was the pandemic.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-002", "start": 686.24, "end": 689.73, "text": "So as you know, COVID hit the United States,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-003", "start": 689.87, "end": 694.83, "text": "and the suburbs were extremely freaked out about this because they tend", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-004", "start": 694.83, "end": 696.37, "text": "to have children who go to school,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-005", "start": 696.73, "end": 699.39, "text": "they tend to be older,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-006", "start": 699.61, "end": 700.55, "text": "and we see that as a big deal in the suburbs of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-007", "start": 700.55, "end": 700.55, "text": "the United States.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-008", "start": 700.57, "end": 706.29, "text": "And they thought that Trump's handling of the pandemic was very incompetent,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-009", "start": 706.31, "end": 709.33, "text": "okay? He was an outsider,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-010", "start": 709.81, "end": 713.15, "text": "a political outsider, but that meant he could not get things done", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-011", "start": 713.15, "end": 713.69, "text": "in Washington.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-012", "start": 714.9, "end": 717.72, "text": "Okay, so that's the second problem with Trump.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-013", "start": 718.12, "end": 722.95, "text": "And the third reason why the suburbs went,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-014", "start": 724.21, "end": 726.41, "text": "Biden is Kamala Harris, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-015", "start": 727.58, "end": 728.28, "text": "And this is key.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-016", "start": 729.27, "end": 735.41, "text": "Biden picked Kamala Harris to be his vice president,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-017", "start": 735.55, "end": 737.29, "text": "to be his running mate.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-018", "start": 737.79, "end": 740.73, "text": "And Kamala Harris, let me tell you a little about Kamala Harris.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-019", "start": 741.15, "end": 745.11, "text": "Her father is Jamaican, her mother is Indian.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-020", "start": 745.8, "end": 748.6, "text": "And she has a younger sister,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-021", "start": 748.78, "end": 750.7, "text": "but when she was young,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-022", "start": 751, "end": 751.9, "text": "her", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-023", "start": 751.93, "end": 753.29, "text": "dad left the family.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "c1a0b07e186d6a67dccc31163c5c7071b33c77f81af4b034d652b50f3e0ee0ac", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0010", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=683s", "time_label": "11:23", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0011", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "start": 753.91, "end": 831.928, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "So her mom raised the two girls by herself. And Kamala Harris is an extremely accomplished person. She went to Stanford. Then she became attorney general of California, then became a US Senator, okay? And there are three reasons why the suburbs love Kamala Harris, okay? First of all, like us, okay? Meaning like, she comes across as someone who speaks and thinks like people in the suburbs, okay? well -educated, articulate, smart, conservative, okay? Second is, she's seen as very establishment, meaning that she's not liberal. In fact, when she was Attorney General of California, she was extremely tough on crime. She was trying to send as many people to jail as possible. And sometimes, quite honestly, some of these people were innocent, okay? And she still sent them to jail. She was very controversial as Attorney General. But guess what, guys? People in the suburbs like tough on crime, okay?", "word_count": 152, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-001", "start": 753.91, "end": 758.27, "text": "So her mom raised the two girls by herself.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-002", "start": 760.13, "end": 763.29, "text": "And Kamala Harris is an extremely accomplished person.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-003", "start": 763.85, "end": 764.75, "text": "She went to Stanford.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-004", "start": 765.55, "end": 769.15, "text": "Then she became attorney general of California,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-005", "start": 769.71, "end": 771.05, "text": "then became a US Senator,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-006", "start": 771.17, "end": 776, "text": "okay? And there are three reasons why the suburbs love Kamala Harris,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-007", "start": 776.24, "end": 783.39, "text": "okay? First of all, like us,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-008", "start": 783.55, "end": 789.48, "text": "okay? Meaning like, she comes across as someone who speaks and thinks", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-009", "start": 789.48, "end": 791.91, "text": "like people in the suburbs,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-010", "start": 792.09, "end": 796.51, "text": "okay? well -educated, articulate, smart,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-011", "start": 796.73, "end": 797.75, "text": "conservative, okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-012", "start": 798.31, "end": 802.49, "text": "Second is, she's seen as very establishment,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-013", "start": 803.3, "end": 805.86, "text": "meaning that she's not liberal.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-014", "start": 806.12, "end": 809.38, "text": "In fact, when she was Attorney General of California,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-015", "start": 809.82, "end": 812.34, "text": "she was extremely tough on crime.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-016", "start": 812.62, "end": 815.64, "text": "She was trying to send as many people to jail as possible.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-017", "start": 815.9, "end": 819.98, "text": "And sometimes, quite honestly, some of these people were innocent,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-018", "start": 820.26, "end": 822.44, "text": "okay? And she still sent them to jail.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-019", "start": 822.44, "end": 825.88, "text": "She was very controversial as Attorney General.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-020", "start": 826.4, "end": 828.1, "text": "But guess what, guys?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-021", "start": 828.4, "end": 831.3, "text": "People in the suburbs like tough on crime,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-022", "start": 831.58, "end": 831.928, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "283dbfc86b6417fa96b0b4ff6603486c5d8adf06a828155bd0acbbd8a96813e8", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0011", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=753s", "time_label": "12:33", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0012", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "start": 831.928, "end": 916.47, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "They want safety, they want security, they just have kids. And the third reason why they like Kamala Harris is because of the redemption story. So, in 2019, there's a Democratic primary, okay? This is when the Democrats try to get a nomination for the general election, okay? And there was a lot of people who were vying for the nomination, including Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. In June 2019, there was the first Democratic debate, okay? And at this point, Kamala Harris and Joe Biden were considered very heavy favorites to win a nomination. And in that first debate, Kamala Harris and Joe Biden got into a very nasty argument on television, okay? So what happened is that Kamala Harris turned to Joe Biden, and Joe Biden's kind of shell -shocked, okay? He's kind of old, and Kamala Harris is directing her words at him, and he doesn't really want to see her, okay? He doesn't really want to confront her. And what Kamala Harris says to Joe Biden is, Joe, you've been, you've been in Washington, D.C.", "word_count": 180, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-001", "start": 831.928, "end": 834.9, "text": "They want safety, they want security, they just have kids.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-002", "start": 836.3, "end": 842.25, "text": "And the third reason why they like Kamala Harris is because of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-003", "start": 842.25, "end": 843.87, "text": "the redemption story.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-004", "start": 844.64, "end": 853.03, "text": "So, in 2019, there's a Democratic primary,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-005", "start": 853.23, "end": 860.32, "text": "okay? This is when the Democrats try to get a nomination for", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-006", "start": 860.32, "end": 861.12, "text": "the general election, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-007", "start": 861.26, "end": 865.7, "text": "And there was a lot of people who were vying for the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-008", "start": 865.7, "end": 868.88, "text": "nomination, including Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-009", "start": 869.12, "end": 875.73, "text": "In June 2019, there was the first Democratic debate,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-010", "start": 875.99, "end": 877.55, "text": "okay? And at this point,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-011", "start": 877.65, "end": 883.71, "text": "Kamala Harris and Joe Biden were considered very heavy favorites to win", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-012", "start": 883.71, "end": 884.09, "text": "a nomination.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-013", "start": 885.29, "end": 886.43, "text": "And in that first debate,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-014", "start": 886.85, "end": 893.39, "text": "Kamala Harris and Joe Biden got into a very nasty argument on", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-015", "start": 893.39, "end": 894.51, "text": "television, okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-016", "start": 894.69, "end": 898.47, "text": "So what happened is that Kamala Harris turned to Joe Biden,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-017", "start": 898.59, "end": 900.63, "text": "and Joe Biden's kind of shell -shocked,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-018", "start": 900.71, "end": 902.05, "text": "okay? He's kind of old,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-019", "start": 902.23, "end": 906.21, "text": "and Kamala Harris is directing her words at him,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-020", "start": 906.27, "end": 907.81, "text": "and he doesn't really want to see her,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-021", "start": 907.91, "end": 909.89, "text": "okay? He doesn't really want to confront her.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-022", "start": 910.09, "end": 911.75, "text": "And what", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-023", "start": 911.75, "end": 913.71, "text": "Kamala Harris says to Joe Biden is,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-024", "start": 913.91, "end": 915.83, "text": "Joe, you've been, you've been in Washington,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-025", "start": 915.99, "end": 916.47, "text": "D.C.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "f6c6e9f2d2a17dbdb84e0e1500577ce40cde714e55be848d834bf3c907020b69", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0012", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=831s", "time_label": "13:51", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0013", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "start": 916.51, "end": 979.6, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "for 50 years, and some of your policies I don't support. For example, you do not support the integration of black and white students together. Well, you know what, Joe? I'm a black student. I was a black little girl, grew up in the 70s in California, and I got my opportunity to succeed in America because of integration, because I could go to white school, and you opposed my idea. And I got my opportunity to succeed, okay? So basically, she was calling Biden a racist. And at that point, everyone thought that, okay, well, if Biden gets a nomination, there's no way he's gonna pick her to be the VP, okay? And then he picks her to be the VP. And so what do people think about Biden? What do people think of Biden? What impression do people have of him? What impression do people get because of this?", "word_count": 151, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-001", "start": 916.51, "end": 921.15, "text": "for 50 years, and some of your policies I don't support.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-002", "start": 921.31, "end": 926.63, "text": "For example, you do not support the integration of black and white", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-003", "start": 926.63, "end": 927.53, "text": "students together.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-004", "start": 928.36, "end": 929.66, "text": "Well, you know what, Joe?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-005", "start": 929.9, "end": 931.14, "text": "I'm a black student.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-006", "start": 931.34, "end": 933.52, "text": "I was a black little girl,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-007", "start": 933.74, "end": 936.08, "text": "grew up in the 70s in California,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-008", "start": 936.9, "end": 941.14, "text": "and I got my opportunity to succeed in America because of integration,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-009", "start": 941.38, "end": 942.58, "text": "because I could go to white school,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-010", "start": 942.72, "end": 945.12, "text": "and you opposed my idea.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-011", "start": 945.12, "end": 946.06, "text": "And I got my opportunity to succeed,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-012", "start": 946.28, "end": 952.42, "text": "okay? So basically, she was calling Biden a racist.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-013", "start": 954.34, "end": 956.94, "text": "And at that point, everyone thought that,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-014", "start": 956.98, "end": 959.12, "text": "okay, well, if Biden gets a nomination,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-015", "start": 960.2, "end": 964.98, "text": "there's no way he's gonna pick her to be the VP,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-016", "start": 965.2, "end": 971.81, "text": "okay? And then he picks her to be the VP.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-017", "start": 972.53, "end": 973.97, "text": "And so what do people think about Biden?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-018", "start": 975.26, "end": 976.96, "text": "What do people think of Biden?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-019", "start": 977.12, "end": 978.36, "text": "What impression do people have of him?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-020", "start": 978.36, "end": 978.36, "text": "What", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-021", "start": 978.36, "end": 979.6, "text": "impression do people get because of this?", "word_count": 7 } ], "text_sha256": "28ad8b7619ef153a5b0ec40031b7d94eea2a63be67a11df18a63cbe0aa08d575", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0013", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=916s", "time_label": "15:16", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0014", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "start": 979.68, "end": 1071.932, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Anyone? Yes, okay, exactly, okay? Doesn't hold grudges, what else? What else? What else? Doesn't hold grudges. He's a very forgiving man. What else? Good, yes, he listens, right? He's a listener. He's a team player, okay? And he has empathy, okay? He understands what voters want from that Harris, okay? And guess what, guys, these three things. Doesn't hold grudges, listens, team player, and empathy. This is anti -Trump, right? This is the anti -Trump. And because of this narrative, women, especially women in the suburbs, went for Biden, okay? Previously they had gone for Trump, now they went for Biden, because as it turns out, women want compassionate, empathetic leadership that is decisive and bold, but is also tolerant, okay? And this is also why, even though Hillary Clinton ran in 2016 and she was a woman, the suburbs didn't vote for her because she didn't come across as someone who was compassionate and forgiving and tolerant, okay?", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-001", "start": 979.68, "end": 987.12, "text": "Anyone? Yes, okay, exactly, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-002", "start": 988.56, "end": 989.84, "text": "Doesn't hold grudges, what else?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-003", "start": 992.28, "end": 992.86, "text": "What else?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-004", "start": 994.9, "end": 995.46, "text": "What else?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-005", "start": 995.82, "end": 996.74, "text": "Doesn't hold grudges.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-006", "start": 996.76, "end": 997.84, "text": "He's a very forgiving man.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-007", "start": 998.04, "end": 998.5, "text": "What else?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-008", "start": 1000.34, "end": 1002, "text": "Good, yes, he listens, right?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-009", "start": 1003.2, "end": 1004.08, "text": "He's a listener.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-010", "start": 1004.7, "end": 1006.82, "text": "He's a team player, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-011", "start": 1008.28, "end": 1010.04, "text": "And he has empathy, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-012", "start": 1010.22, "end": 1012.78, "text": "He understands what voters want from that Harris,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-013", "start": 1012.98, "end": 1014.26, "text": "okay? And guess what, guys,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-014", "start": 1014.36, "end": 1014.94, "text": "these three things.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-015", "start": 1015.04, "end": 1018.24, "text": "Doesn't hold grudges, listens, team player,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-016", "start": 1018.44, "end": 1019.72, "text": "and empathy.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-017", "start": 1020.74, "end": 1022.06, "text": "This is anti -Trump, right?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-018", "start": 1022.72, "end": 1023.9, "text": "This is the anti -Trump.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-019", "start": 1028.46, "end": 1030.7, "text": "And because of this narrative,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-020", "start": 1031.42, "end": 1034.42, "text": "women, especially women in the suburbs,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-021", "start": 1034.56, "end": 1036.44, "text": "went for Biden, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-022", "start": 1037.58, "end": 1038.92, "text": "Previously they had gone for Trump,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-023", "start": 1039.02, "end": 1040.2, "text": "now they went for Biden,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-024", "start": 1040.26, "end": 1041.74, "text": "because as it turns out,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-025", "start": 1041.78, "end": 1050.78, "text": "women want compassionate, empathetic leadership that is decisive and bold,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-026", "start": 1053.16, "end": 1056.8, "text": "but is also tolerant, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-027", "start": 1057.12, "end": 1058.6, "text": "And this is also why,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-028", "start": 1059.26, "end": 1062.72, "text": "even though Hillary Clinton ran in 2016 and she was a woman,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-029", "start": 1063.46, "end": 1067.32, "text": "the suburbs didn't vote for her because she didn't come across as", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-030", "start": 1067.32, "end": 1068.06, "text": "someone who", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-031", "start": 1068.06, "end": 1071.44, "text": "was compassionate and forgiving and tolerant,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-032", "start": 1071.64, "end": 1071.932, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "cbcab78a490c44180137813f906efa70a385360428182026c309d69a6f731246", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0014", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=979s", "time_label": "16:19", "tags": [ "monologue", "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0015", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "start": 1071.932, "end": 1165.14, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Does that make sense? And this is why Biden was able to win in 2020. So this year, what can Trump do to win the suburbs? What can he do? Yeah, he can copy this exact same thing, okay? And it turns out he can do this, okay? Why? Because on the Republican side, there's someone called Nikki Haley. Oh, sorry, Nikki Haley. And Nikki Haley is very similar to Kamala Harris, okay? Nikki Haley, her parents are Indian immigrants. Okay, so she's Indian. She's of South Asian descent. And her family was not very wealthy, but she worked hard and she became South Carolina governor for two terms. And then she joined the Trump administration as UN ambassador in 2016, okay? Now, what's interesting about Nikki Haley is that Nikki Haley ran against Trump, in the Republican primary, okay? And even though she lost to Trump, there was a group of people who loved her.", "word_count": 156, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-001", "start": 1071.932, "end": 1073.1, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-002", "start": 1073.42, "end": 1079.98, "text": "And this is why Biden was able to win in 2020.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-003", "start": 1082.42, "end": 1087.11, "text": "So this year, what can Trump do to win the suburbs?", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-004", "start": 1089.01, "end": 1089.87, "text": "What can he do?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-005", "start": 1094.98, "end": 1098.62, "text": "Yeah, he can copy this exact same thing,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-006", "start": 1098.66, "end": 1101.28, "text": "okay? And it turns out he can do this,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-007", "start": 1101.28, "end": 1101.74, "text": "okay? Why?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-008", "start": 1101.82, "end": 1104.66, "text": "Because on the Republican side,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-009", "start": 1104.86, "end": 1106.82, "text": "there's someone called Nikki Haley.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-010", "start": 1107.02, "end": 1108.42, "text": "Oh, sorry, Nikki Haley.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-011", "start": 1110.36, "end": 1115.16, "text": "And Nikki Haley is very similar to Kamala Harris,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-012", "start": 1115.38, "end": 1120.81, "text": "okay? Nikki Haley, her parents are Indian immigrants.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-013", "start": 1120.81, "end": 1122.07, "text": "Okay, so she's Indian.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-014", "start": 1122.21, "end": 1124.55, "text": "She's of South Asian descent.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-015", "start": 1127.07, "end": 1129.39, "text": "And her family was not very wealthy,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-016", "start": 1129.59, "end": 1134.41, "text": "but she worked hard and she became South Carolina governor for two", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-017", "start": 1134.41, "end": 1141.77, "text": "terms. And then she joined the Trump administration as UN ambassador in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-018", "start": 1141.77, "end": 1143.47, "text": "2016, okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-019", "start": 1144.56, "end": 1151.6, "text": "Now, what's interesting about Nikki Haley is that Nikki Haley ran against", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-020", "start": 1151.6, "end": 1153.44, "text": "Trump, in the Republican primary,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-021", "start": 1153.6, "end": 1162.1, "text": "okay? And even though she lost to Trump,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-022", "start": 1162.72, "end": 1163.88, "text": "there was a group of people", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-023", "start": 1163.88, "end": 1165.14, "text": "who loved her.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "608cc369e75f141f8970d45867d09313094981db62addbcc77818c56a0adfa8e", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0015", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=1071s", "time_label": "17:51", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0016", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "start": 1166.16, "end": 1241.02, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Guess who just loved her? Who voted for her in droves? Guess what demographic group? Anyone? Suburban woman, okay, do you understand? College educated suburban woman, okay? So in other words, if Trump brings her onto the ticket, then it's very likely, he can swing the suburbs back to him and win the election. But there's a problem. The problem is that Nikki Haley and Trump got into a very nasty fight during the primary, okay? So Nikki Haley said, listen, I served under Trump, and I think he's a divisive figure. And right now in our country, we need a unifier. That's why I'm running for president, because I wanna unite this country, whereas Trump can only divide this country, okay? And then Trump, being Trump, responds and says, Nikki Haley is a bird brain. She's stupid, okay? So you think, you see this, and you think that there's no way Trump will pick her, because Nikki Haley's not loyal to Trump, right?", "word_count": 164, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-001", "start": 1166.16, "end": 1167.5, "text": "Guess who just loved her?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-002", "start": 1167.82, "end": 1169.66, "text": "Who voted for her in droves?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-003", "start": 1170.02, "end": 1172.26, "text": "Guess what demographic group?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-004", "start": 1172.86, "end": 1180.15, "text": "Anyone? Suburban woman, okay, do you understand?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-005", "start": 1180.49, "end": 1182.67, "text": "College educated suburban woman, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-006", "start": 1182.91, "end": 1188.66, "text": "So in other words, if Trump brings her onto the ticket,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-007", "start": 1190.23, "end": 1194.79, "text": "then it's very likely, he can swing the suburbs back to him", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-008", "start": 1194.79, "end": 1196.37, "text": "and win the election.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-009", "start": 1196.63, "end": 1197.89, "text": "But there's a problem.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-010", "start": 1198.25, "end": 1203.23, "text": "The problem is that Nikki Haley and Trump got into a very", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-011", "start": 1203.23, "end": 1205.33, "text": "nasty fight during the primary,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-012", "start": 1205.51, "end": 1207.83, "text": "okay? So Nikki Haley said,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-013", "start": 1208.11, "end": 1210.41, "text": "listen, I served under Trump,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-014", "start": 1210.45, "end": 1212.73, "text": "and I think he's a divisive figure.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-015", "start": 1212.89, "end": 1214.13, "text": "And right now in our country,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-016", "start": 1214.27, "end": 1215.83, "text": "we need a unifier.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-017", "start": 1216.05, "end": 1218.41, "text": "That's why I'm running for president,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-018", "start": 1218.53, "end": 1220.11, "text": "because I wanna unite this country,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-019", "start": 1220.11, "end": 1222.51, "text": "whereas Trump can only divide this country,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-020", "start": 1222.65, "end": 1225.15, "text": "okay? And then Trump, being Trump,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-021", "start": 1225.45, "end": 1228.57, "text": "responds and says, Nikki Haley is a bird brain.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-022", "start": 1228.77, "end": 1229.91, "text": "She's stupid, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-023", "start": 1231.44, "end": 1234.81, "text": "So you think, you see this,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-024", "start": 1234.81, "end": 1237.41, "text": "and you think that there's no way Trump will pick her,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-025", "start": 1237.47, "end": 1238.03, "text": "because", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-026", "start": 1238.03, "end": 1240.62, "text": "Nikki Haley's not loyal to Trump,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-027", "start": 1240.72, "end": 1241.02, "text": "right?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "e1bec6081505408a4032dd3b68d41407aeec19a7dd987c70d50276855df19170", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0016", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=1166s", "time_label": "19:26", "tags": [ "monologue", "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0017", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "start": 1241.02, "end": 1314, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "And Trump likes loyalty. Also, hey guys, Trump holds grudges, right? And he doesn't listen, and he's not a team player, and he lacks empathy. So there's no way he would pick Nikki Haley. And in fact, this past week, there's been news report that Nikki Haley is in consideration to be Trump's vice president. And Trump came out and said, I am not considering Nikki Haley, okay? But let me ask you this question. If in August, during the Republican convention, he does pick Nikki Haley, how would people feel about him? How would the media report this? Nikki Haley is an enemy of Trump. Trump called her a bird brain. Trump said, I will never pick Nikki Haley. And then in August, three months from now, he says, you know what, I was wrong. I think Nikki Haley is the best person to be my VP. That's why she'll be my running mate in November.", "word_count": 157, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-001", "start": 1241.02, "end": 1242.22, "text": "And Trump likes loyalty.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-002", "start": 1242.42, "end": 1245.92, "text": "Also, hey guys, Trump holds grudges,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-003", "start": 1245.98, "end": 1248.38, "text": "right? And he doesn't listen,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-004", "start": 1248.64, "end": 1249.48, "text": "and he's not a team player,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-005", "start": 1249.62, "end": 1250.42, "text": "and he lacks empathy.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-006", "start": 1250.42, "end": 1254.32, "text": "So there's no way he would pick Nikki Haley.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-007", "start": 1254.5, "end": 1257.44, "text": "And in fact, this past week,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-008", "start": 1257.58, "end": 1263.3, "text": "there's been news report that Nikki Haley is in consideration to be", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-009", "start": 1263.3, "end": 1264.5, "text": "Trump's vice president.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-010", "start": 1264.66, "end": 1266.72, "text": "And Trump came out and said,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-011", "start": 1266.86, "end": 1269.54, "text": "I am not considering Nikki Haley,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-012", "start": 1269.68, "end": 1272.38, "text": "okay? But let me ask you this question.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-013", "start": 1275.38, "end": 1279.06, "text": "If in August, during the Republican convention,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-014", "start": 1279.28, "end": 1282.78, "text": "he does pick Nikki Haley,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-015", "start": 1283.76, "end": 1285.04, "text": "how would people feel about him?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-016", "start": 1289.82, "end": 1291.22, "text": "How would the media report this?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-017", "start": 1292.72, "end": 1294.96, "text": "Nikki Haley is an enemy of Trump.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-018", "start": 1295.24, "end": 1296.96, "text": "Trump called her a bird brain.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-019", "start": 1297.4, "end": 1300.56, "text": "Trump said, I will never pick Nikki Haley.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-020", "start": 1301.06, "end": 1305.28, "text": "And then in August, three months from now,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-021", "start": 1305.46, "end": 1306.94, "text": "he says, you know what,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-022", "start": 1306.96, "end": 1307.36, "text": "I was wrong.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-023", "start": 1307.56, "end": 1310.92, "text": "I think Nikki Haley is the best person to be my VP.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-024", "start": 1311.42, "end": 1312.92, "text": "That's why she'll be my", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-025", "start": 1312.92, "end": 1314, "text": "running mate in November.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "94f1a40f864d6a2e0ad643fd37a8311f1f87c2d2670c8847700a1ff24e597299", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0017", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=1241s", "time_label": "20:41", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0018", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "start": 1314.66, "end": 1393.35, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "How would people feel about him? Well, what would the suburbs say? think about Trump how do you feel if you saw this he's a changed man right Trump has grown remember like the narrative about Trump is he is a five -year -old child and remember that people were like don't insult five -year -old children like that okay five -year -old children are much more mature than Trump so the argument about Trump is he's divisive but much more than that he's immature he's incapable of growth okay but hey if in August he picks Nikki Haley to be his VP then the media will be like he is a changed man he's learned his lessons he's willing to let go of grudges he's willing to listen he now has empathy therefore he should be president okay you understand but then what happens is the suburbs switch over to you to Trump and then", "word_count": 156, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-001", "start": 1314.66, "end": 1316.32, "text": "How would people feel about him?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-002", "start": 1317.52, "end": 1319.56, "text": "Well, what would the suburbs say?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-003", "start": 1319.56, "end": 1326.96, "text": "think about Trump how do you feel if you saw this he's", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-004", "start": 1335.51, "end": 1343.83, "text": "a changed man right Trump has grown remember like the narrative about", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-005", "start": 1343.83, "end": 1348.43, "text": "Trump is he is a five -year -old child and remember that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-006", "start": 1348.43, "end": 1352.49, "text": "people were like don't insult five -year -old children like that okay", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-007", "start": 1352.49, "end": 1355.83, "text": "five -year -old children are much more mature than Trump so the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-008", "start": 1355.83, "end": 1359.69, "text": "argument about Trump is he's divisive but much more than that he's", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-009", "start": 1359.69, "end": 1366.35, "text": "immature he's incapable of growth okay but hey if in August he", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-010", "start": 1366.35, "end": 1369.87, "text": "picks Nikki Haley to be his VP then the media will be", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-011", "start": 1369.87, "end": 1375.67, "text": "like he is a changed man he's learned his lessons he's willing", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-012", "start": 1375.67, "end": 1379.01, "text": "to let go of grudges he's willing to listen he now has", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-013", "start": 1379.01, "end": 1387.08, "text": "empathy therefore he should be president okay you understand but then what", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-014", "start": 1387.08, "end": 1393.35, "text": "happens is the suburbs switch over to you to Trump and then", "word_count": 12 } ], "text_sha256": "bd6c06b7ae5ad63efac08ec6135aa6c47bb3ee1c89e4ae12197a6b32bfa4acba", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0018", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=1314s", "time_label": "21:54", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0019", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "start": 1393.35, "end": 1457.62, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "he wins so if he picks Nikki Haley in August he will win okay I'm not completely sure that it will pick Nikki Haley I think that this is his best strategic move okay but Trump is not really predictable all right and who he picks as vice president will give us a good clue as to how he will govern when he when he becomes president okay does that make sense all right now the question then is okay who is Nikki Haley and what will she do as vice president okay now what's important to understand about Nikki Haley is that when she left office when she left Washington DC political office in 2018 she had nothing in her bank account okay she had no money in her bank account now she has ten million dollars in her bank account and she lives in a five million dollar mansion so where does she get this money okay she", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-001", "start": 1393.35, "end": 1399.34, "text": "he wins so if he picks Nikki Haley in August he will", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-002", "start": 1399.34, "end": 1403.38, "text": "win okay I'm not completely sure that it will pick Nikki Haley", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-003", "start": 1403.38, "end": 1406.88, "text": "I think that this is his best strategic move okay but Trump", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-004", "start": 1406.88, "end": 1411.12, "text": "is not really predictable all right and who he picks as vice", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-005", "start": 1411.12, "end": 1414.72, "text": "president will give us a good clue as to how he will", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-006", "start": 1414.72, "end": 1418.3, "text": "govern when he when he becomes president okay does that make sense", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-007", "start": 1418.3, "end": 1424.54, "text": "all right now the question then is okay who is Nikki Haley", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-008", "start": 1424.54, "end": 1430.39, "text": "and what will she do as vice president okay now what's important", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-009", "start": 1430.39, "end": 1435.45, "text": "to understand about Nikki Haley is that when she left office when", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-010", "start": 1435.45, "end": 1441.25, "text": "she left Washington DC political office in 2018 she had nothing in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-011", "start": 1441.25, "end": 1443.89, "text": "her bank account okay she had no money in her bank account", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-012", "start": 1443.89, "end": 1449.89, "text": "now she has ten million dollars in her bank account and she", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-013", "start": 1449.89, "end": 1455.7, "text": "lives in a five million dollar mansion so where does she get", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-014", "start": 1455.7, "end": 1457.62, "text": "this money okay she", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "281d25a1ac46525656dc10313e913398ff520e94e45f47bd1400417b4d500f67", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0019", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=1393s", "time_label": "23:13", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0020", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "start": 1457.62, "end": 1557.117, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "got her she got this money mainly for an organization called United against a nuclear Iran okay and this organization's primary purpose is to create conflict between the United States and Iran okay they they go against any companies or individuals who support Iran United States who does business with Iran okay they are a very anti Iranian organization one of their main donors his name is Sheldon Alderson and Sheldon Alderson is extremely pro -Israel business person okay he owns a lot of casinos okay so MGM stands he's a billionaire and what's interesting about Sandal Sando He's dead, but he was the main patron of a man named Benjamin Netanyahu. He is the main political patron and financial donor to Benjamin Netanyahu. So Sheldon Ellison supports both Netanyahu and supports this organization called United Against a Nuclear Iran. And United Against a Nuclear Iran hired Nikki Haley and paid her a lot of money, okay? That's the first thing.", "word_count": 161, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-001", "start": 1457.62, "end": 1462.86, "text": "got her she got this money mainly for an organization called United", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-002", "start": 1462.86, "end": 1477.8, "text": "against a nuclear Iran okay and this organization's primary purpose is to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-003", "start": 1477.8, "end": 1484.86, "text": "create conflict between the United States and Iran okay they they go", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-004", "start": 1484.86, "end": 1490, "text": "against any companies or individuals who support Iran United States who does", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-005", "start": 1490, "end": 1497.93, "text": "business with Iran okay they are a very anti Iranian organization one", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-006", "start": 1498.15, "end": 1506.04, "text": "of their main donors his name is Sheldon Alderson and Sheldon Alderson", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-007", "start": 1506.04, "end": 1514.3, "text": "is extremely pro -Israel business person okay he owns a lot of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-008", "start": 1514.3, "end": 1520.12, "text": "casinos okay so MGM stands he's a billionaire and what's interesting about", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-009", "start": 1520.12, "end": 1528.46, "text": "Sandal Sando He's dead, but he was the main patron of a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-010", "start": 1528.46, "end": 1531.56, "text": "man named Benjamin Netanyahu.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-011", "start": 1533.52, "end": 1539.58, "text": "He is the main political patron and financial donor to Benjamin Netanyahu.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-012", "start": 1542.22, "end": 1547.62, "text": "So Sheldon Ellison supports both Netanyahu and supports this organization called United", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-013", "start": 1547.62, "end": 1549.44, "text": "Against a Nuclear Iran.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-014", "start": 1549.44, "end": 1554.96, "text": "And United Against a Nuclear Iran hired Nikki Haley and paid her", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-015", "start": 1554.96, "end": 1555.6, "text": "a lot of money, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-016", "start": 1555.92, "end": 1556.7, "text": "That's the first", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-017", "start": 1556.7, "end": 1557.117, "text": "thing.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "409a477681b53f80426b149f89f307be6f8e584c2d9cb78ff3302726a68f5694", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0020", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=1457s", "time_label": "24:17", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0021", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "start": 1557.117, "end": 1638.747, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Second thing is that in 2019, she got a job at Boeing. Boeing is a weapons manufacturer. They make airplanes, but they mainly make bombs and missiles, okay? So they love war. She sat on the board of Boeing, an extremely prestigious job, and she was paid 300,000 US dollars just to sit on the board. She wouldn't do nothing, okay? She has also given speeches at an organization called Christians United for Israel. And you may remember that this is a 7 million strong organization that supports war in the Middle East. They are evangelical Christians. They are dispensation premillennialists who believe that war between the Middle East and between Israel and Iran will bring Jesus back to earth and establish the kingdom of heaven. And therefore, they want as much conflict in the Middle East as possible, okay? So all this is telling us is that if Nikki Haley becomes vice president, her main responsibility will be to agitate for war against Iran, okay?", "word_count": 167, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-001", "start": 1557.117, "end": 1559.62, "text": "Second thing is that in 2019,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-002", "start": 1559.86, "end": 1561.58, "text": "she got a job at Boeing.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-003", "start": 1563.88, "end": 1565.8, "text": "Boeing is a weapons manufacturer.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-004", "start": 1565.98, "end": 1568.42, "text": "They make airplanes, but they mainly make bombs and missiles,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-005", "start": 1568.54, "end": 1569.44, "text": "okay? So they love war.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-006", "start": 1569.86, "end": 1572.22, "text": "She sat on the board of Boeing,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-007", "start": 1572.44, "end": 1577.72, "text": "an extremely prestigious job, and she was paid 300,000 US dollars", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-008", "start": 1577.72, "end": 1580.06, "text": "just to sit on the board.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-009", "start": 1580.06, "end": 1582, "text": "She wouldn't do nothing, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-010", "start": 1582.26, "end": 1591.58, "text": "She has also given speeches at an organization called Christians United for", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-011", "start": 1591.58, "end": 1598.72, "text": "Israel. And you may remember that this is a 7 million strong", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-012", "start": 1599.8, "end": 1603.86, "text": "organization that supports war in the Middle East.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-013", "start": 1604.62, "end": 1606.46, "text": "They are evangelical Christians.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-014", "start": 1606.72, "end": 1613.66, "text": "They are dispensation premillennialists who believe that war between the Middle East", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-015", "start": 1613.66, "end": 1618.46, "text": "and between Israel and Iran will bring Jesus back to earth and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-016", "start": 1618.46, "end": 1619.56, "text": "establish the kingdom of heaven.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-017", "start": 1619.8, "end": 1622.62, "text": "And therefore, they want as much conflict in the Middle East as", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-018", "start": 1622.62, "end": 1623.26, "text": "possible, okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-019", "start": 1624.16, "end": 1630.76, "text": "So all this is telling us is that if Nikki Haley becomes", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-020", "start": 1630.76, "end": 1635.96, "text": "vice president, her main responsibility will", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-021", "start": 1635.96, "end": 1637.98, "text": "be to agitate for war against Iran,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-022", "start": 1638.26, "end": 1638.747, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "477d91a7502e84fcd823b8128c1e9aafc72158db67dffff887ea4c8328c249f3", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0021", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=1557s", "time_label": "25:57", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0022", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "start": 1638.747, "end": 1713.468, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "She'll be the one in the White House pushing for war in Iran. Escalating tension in Iran, okay? So Nikki Haley, okay, what's also interesting is, okay, in January 2019, basically the primary is over. Trump has won everything, okay? But in January 2019, even after Trump won, Haley was able to raise more money than Trump. So Haley got about 12 million dollars from donors. Trump gets, got 11 million dollars, okay? And the only explanation for this is these donors knew that Haley would not become president. She could not beat Trump, but they were trying to position her to be his vice president by making her stay in the race and giving her as much publicity as possible. In fact, even though she dropped out of the race, she's still getting about 25 % of the vote, to 33 % of all Republican votes, okay?", "word_count": 148, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-001", "start": 1638.747, "end": 1644.1, "text": "She'll be the one in the White House pushing for war", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-002", "start": 1644.1, "end": 1644.5, "text": "in Iran.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-003", "start": 1644.5, "end": 1648.54, "text": "Escalating tension in Iran, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-004", "start": 1650.01, "end": 1655.63, "text": "So Nikki Haley, okay, what's also interesting is,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-005", "start": 1655.97, "end": 1664.53, "text": "okay, in January 2019, basically the primary is over.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-006", "start": 1664.65, "end": 1665.91, "text": "Trump has won everything, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-007", "start": 1666.07, "end": 1669.37, "text": "But in January 2019, even after Trump won,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-008", "start": 1669.93, "end": 1673.89, "text": "Haley was able to raise more money than Trump.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-009", "start": 1674.11, "end": 1679.47, "text": "So Haley got about 12 million dollars from donors.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-010", "start": 1679.47, "end": 1682.03, "text": "Trump gets, got 11 million dollars,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-011", "start": 1682.29, "end": 1688.78, "text": "okay? And the only explanation for this is these donors knew that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-012", "start": 1688.78, "end": 1690.68, "text": "Haley would not become president.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-013", "start": 1690.8, "end": 1691.76, "text": "She could not beat Trump,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-014", "start": 1691.9, "end": 1697.1, "text": "but they were trying to position her to be his vice president", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-015", "start": 1697.1, "end": 1701.24, "text": "by making her stay in the race and giving her as much", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-016", "start": 1701.24, "end": 1702.12, "text": "publicity as possible.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-017", "start": 1702.46, "end": 1705.54, "text": "In fact, even though she dropped out of the race,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-018", "start": 1705.74, "end": 1710.32, "text": "she's still getting about 25 % of the vote,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-019", "start": 1710.32, "end": 1712.72, "text": "to 33 % of all Republican votes,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-020", "start": 1712.8, "end": 1713.468, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "6f98433261b5921e9fbcaa0d8e95558e010f5671e9e57aa1d9a77ccf7af08861", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0022", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=1638s", "time_label": "27:18", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0023", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "start": 1713.468, "end": 1801.23, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "So she comes across as an extremely popular exception figure, okay? So this doesn't make sense, okay? So the conclusion is that given the way, the situation in the United States, it seems very likely Trump will win in 2024, okay? Because the Biden coalition will not hold together. Because of inflation. Illegalization. Illegal immigration. What's happening in Gaza. What's happening in Ukraine. Trump looks very strong right now. And the polls suggest that either the race is tied between the two, or Trump has slight advantage, okay? Trump can basically seal the victory if he picks Nikki Haley to be his vice president. Because Nikki Haley will turn the suburbs to him very strongly. And it's the suburbs that basically decide U.S. elections. And as vice president, what she will be doing is advocating for war against Iran, which means that she's on the payroll of anti -Iranian forces in the United States, okay? So any questions? Anything you're not clear about right now?", "word_count": 166, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-001", "start": 1713.468, "end": 1720.56, "text": "So she comes across as an extremely popular exception figure,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-002", "start": 1720.76, "end": 1724.04, "text": "okay? So this doesn't make sense,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-003", "start": 1724.2, "end": 1730.4, "text": "okay? So the conclusion is that given the way,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-004", "start": 1730.5, "end": 1731.84, "text": "the situation in the United States,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-005", "start": 1732, "end": 1735.76, "text": "it seems very likely Trump will win in 2024,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-006", "start": 1736.34, "end": 1738.8, "text": "okay? Because the Biden coalition will not hold together.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-007", "start": 1738.96, "end": 1740.6, "text": "Because of inflation.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-008", "start": 1741.1, "end": 1742.12, "text": "Illegalization. Illegal immigration.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-009", "start": 1742.28, "end": 1743.18, "text": "What's happening in Gaza.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-010", "start": 1743.3, "end": 1744.04, "text": "What's happening in Ukraine.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-011", "start": 1745.55, "end": 1748.41, "text": "Trump looks very strong right now.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-012", "start": 1748.55, "end": 1753.39, "text": "And the polls suggest that either the race is tied between the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-013", "start": 1753.39, "end": 1755.05, "text": "two, or Trump has slight advantage,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-014", "start": 1755.21, "end": 1762.18, "text": "okay? Trump can basically seal the victory if he picks Nikki Haley", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-015", "start": 1762.18, "end": 1763.64, "text": "to be his vice president.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-016", "start": 1764.64, "end": 1769.66, "text": "Because Nikki Haley will turn the suburbs to him very strongly.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-017", "start": 1769.86, "end": 1773.86, "text": "And it's the suburbs that basically decide U.S.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-018", "start": 1774.36, "end": 1779.4, "text": "elections. And as vice president,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-019", "start": 1779.6, "end": 1784.3, "text": "what she will be doing is advocating for war against Iran,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-020", "start": 1784.58, "end": 1792.14, "text": "which means that she's on the payroll of anti -Iranian forces in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-021", "start": 1792.14, "end": 1793.88, "text": "the United States, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-022", "start": 1796.15, "end": 1798.19, "text": "So any questions?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-023", "start": 1798.81, "end": 1800.53, "text": "Anything you're not clear about", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-024", "start": 1800.53, "end": 1801.23, "text": "right now?", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "fbe068b08299c2b1000385bf084bd5ad2c07d8cb52eccb1a52073a7dfc225cc2", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0023", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=1713s", "time_label": "28:33", "tags": [ "monologue", "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0024", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "start": 1818.63, "end": 1898.4, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Okay. So Jack asked a great question, okay? He's like... He's like, what if Haley holds a grudge and says no, right? And quite honestly, she has been asked in the past, are you willing to serve as Trump's vice president? And she's like, no, because he's a divider. He's divisive. And we need to move on from Trump, okay? All right. Do you guys remember in class when we studied Trump very closely? His personality? We looked at his days in the WWE, okay? And there was a scene where Vince McMahon, the owner of WWE, a billionaire, challenges Trump to a fight, right? Well, guess what, guys? Politics is the same thing. It's all theater, okay? Politics is theater. What Nikki Haley and Donald Trump are doing is pretending to be bitter enemies so that, so that their reconciliation will be so dramatic, you understand? So Nikki Haley served under Trump in the first administration, okay?", "word_count": 158, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-001", "start": 1818.63, "end": 1822.29, "text": "Okay. So Jack asked a great question,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-002", "start": 1822.33, "end": 1824.03, "text": "okay? He's like...", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-003", "start": 1824.03, "end": 1826.73, "text": "He's like, what if Haley holds a grudge and says no,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-004", "start": 1826.99, "end": 1832.26, "text": "right? And quite honestly, she has been asked in the past,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-005", "start": 1832.54, "end": 1835.82, "text": "are you willing to serve as Trump's vice president?", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-006", "start": 1836.18, "end": 1840.8, "text": "And she's like, no, because he's a divider.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-007", "start": 1840.9, "end": 1841.96, "text": "He's divisive.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-008", "start": 1842.06, "end": 1844.78, "text": "And we need to move on from Trump,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-009", "start": 1844.92, "end": 1846.06, "text": "okay? All right.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-010", "start": 1847.92, "end": 1854.34, "text": "Do you guys remember in class when we studied Trump very closely?", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-011", "start": 1854.34, "end": 1854.74, "text": "His personality?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-012", "start": 1855.24, "end": 1858.36, "text": "We looked at his days in the WWE,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-013", "start": 1859.24, "end": 1863.61, "text": "okay? And there was a scene where Vince McMahon,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-014", "start": 1864.13, "end": 1865.95, "text": "the owner of WWE, a billionaire,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-015", "start": 1866.19, "end": 1868.97, "text": "challenges Trump to a fight,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-016", "start": 1869.17, "end": 1871.84, "text": "right? Well, guess what, guys?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-017", "start": 1872.62, "end": 1874.1, "text": "Politics is the same thing.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-018", "start": 1874.24, "end": 1875.72, "text": "It's all theater, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-019", "start": 1876.1, "end": 1877.08, "text": "Politics is theater.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-020", "start": 1880.13, "end": 1884.51, "text": "What Nikki Haley and Donald Trump are doing is pretending to be", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-021", "start": 1884.51, "end": 1890.73, "text": "bitter enemies so that, so that their reconciliation will be so dramatic,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-022", "start": 1891.25, "end": 1892.19, "text": "you understand?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-023", "start": 1893.3, "end": 1898.06, "text": "So Nikki Haley served under Trump in the first administration,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-024", "start": 1898.3, "end": 1898.4, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "4102039b3665957cb1ebd659ef2a7e9e2cba7ed79ca4ab2bfb3d57e4b29f12e6", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0024", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=1818s", "time_label": "30:18", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0025", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "start": 1898.44, "end": 1969.907, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "So from 2016 to 2018, she was UN ambassador for Trump. And everyone says that the two got along really well. In fact, Trump was considering having her be his VP, running mate, in 2016. In 2020, he was thinking of dropping Mike Pence and putting her on the ticket, okay? So the two of them together actually have a great rapport. The two respect each other. They get along very well, okay? So that's the first thing. Second thing is that the thing to know about very successful politicians is they are first and foremost opportunists. They have no ideas. They have no principles. All they care about is... Political power, right? So why would Nikki Haley agree to be vice president? Why? Because it's one step away from the presidency, do you understand? If anything happens to Trump, she's president. And in four years' time, she can run as the Republican nominee for the presidency, okay?", "word_count": 158, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-001", "start": 1898.44, "end": 1899.68, "text": "So from 2016 to 2018,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-002", "start": 1900.02, "end": 1901.76, "text": "she was UN ambassador for Trump.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-003", "start": 1902.45, "end": 1907.07, "text": "And everyone says that the two got along really well.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-004", "start": 1907.33, "end": 1913.99, "text": "In fact, Trump was considering having her be his VP,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-005", "start": 1914.29, "end": 1916.37, "text": "running mate, in 2016.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-006", "start": 1916.37, "end": 1918.73, "text": "In 2020, he was thinking of dropping Mike Pence and putting her", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-007", "start": 1918.73, "end": 1920.91, "text": "on the ticket, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-008", "start": 1921.01, "end": 1924.23, "text": "So the two of them together actually have a great rapport.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-009", "start": 1924.53, "end": 1925.89, "text": "The two respect each other.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-010", "start": 1925.95, "end": 1926.67, "text": "They get along very well,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-011", "start": 1926.75, "end": 1928.37, "text": "okay? So that's the first thing.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-012", "start": 1928.61, "end": 1933.54, "text": "Second thing is that the thing to know about very successful politicians", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-013", "start": 1933.54, "end": 1939.3, "text": "is they are first and foremost opportunists.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-014", "start": 1939.6, "end": 1941.42, "text": "They have no ideas.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-015", "start": 1942.32, "end": 1943.94, "text": "They have no principles.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-016", "start": 1945.11, "end": 1947.21, "text": "All they care about is...", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-017", "start": 1948.04, "end": 1949.2, "text": "Political power, right?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-018", "start": 1949.68, "end": 1952.84, "text": "So why would Nikki Haley agree to be vice president?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-019", "start": 1954.12, "end": 1959.85, "text": "Why? Because it's one step away from the presidency,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-020", "start": 1960.07, "end": 1960.43, "text": "do you understand?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-021", "start": 1960.71, "end": 1961.85, "text": "If anything happens to Trump,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-022", "start": 1961.95, "end": 1962.63, "text": "she's president.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-023", "start": 1962.93, "end": 1964.23, "text": "And in four years' time,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-024", "start": 1964.59, "end": 1969.56, "text": "she can run as the Republican nominee for the presidency,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-025", "start": 1969.8, "end": 1969.907, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "6cd16d6f50127ab1d284ef162888e714c9926a5da0b54c67450f0814c3ed4f04", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0025", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=1898s", "time_label": "31:38", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0026", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "start": 1969.907, "end": 2059.1, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Does that make sense? Okay? So that's the thing you need to know about politicians, okay? All they care about is political power. They will do anything to achieve political power. They will sell their own mother. Okay? To achieve political power. But it's the same thing for rich people, okay? Rich people love money. They will do anything to get money, okay? Sell their own mother? Fine. Okay? Do you understand? Also, celebrities, famous people, right? All they care about is fame. Okay? So do you understand, Jack? All right. Any more questions? Is this clear to you guys? Is there anything you're not clear about? I'll explain further. Okay. So Jack asked... Jack asked a great question. Okay? Well, listen. Like, I can figure this out just by reading the news, right? Biden has an amazing team of extremely well -paid, professional, experienced strategists working with him. They know this. They can see what's going on. So what can Biden do to counter Trump's strategy or the polls?", "word_count": 170, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-001", "start": 1969.907, "end": 1970.36, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-002", "start": 1970.82, "end": 1973.66, "text": "Okay? So that's the thing you need to know about politicians,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-003", "start": 1974.08, "end": 1976.48, "text": "okay? All they care about is political power.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-004", "start": 1976.66, "end": 1979.7, "text": "They will do anything to achieve political power.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-005", "start": 1979.76, "end": 1981.04, "text": "They will sell their own mother.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-006", "start": 1981.04, "end": 1982.64, "text": "Okay? To achieve political power.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-007", "start": 1982.74, "end": 1984.08, "text": "But it's the same thing for rich people,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-008", "start": 1984.2, "end": 1985.66, "text": "okay? Rich people love money.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-009", "start": 1985.82, "end": 1988.36, "text": "They will do anything to get money,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-010", "start": 1988.48, "end": 1989.28, "text": "okay? Sell their own mother?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-011", "start": 1989.4, "end": 1990.1, "text": "Fine. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-012", "start": 1990.58, "end": 1991.08, "text": "Do you understand?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-013", "start": 1991.22, "end": 1993.2, "text": "Also, celebrities, famous people, right?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-014", "start": 1993.44, "end": 1994.42, "text": "All they care about is fame.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-015", "start": 1995.8, "end": 1997.88, "text": "Okay? So do you understand,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-016", "start": 1998.06, "end": 1999.24, "text": "Jack? All right.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-017", "start": 2000.3, "end": 2001.14, "text": "Any more questions?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-018", "start": 2009.58, "end": 2010.94, "text": "Is this clear to you guys?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-019", "start": 2014.66, "end": 2016.22, "text": "Is there anything you're not clear about?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-020", "start": 2016.6, "end": 2018.02, "text": "I'll explain further.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-021", "start": 2030.38, "end": 2033.42, "text": "Okay. So Jack asked...", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-022", "start": 2033.44, "end": 2034.34, "text": "Jack asked a great question.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-023", "start": 2034.46, "end": 2035.72, "text": "Okay? Well, listen.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-024", "start": 2037.03, "end": 2040.72, "text": "Like, I can figure this out just by reading the news,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-025", "start": 2040.8, "end": 2045.28, "text": "right? Biden has an amazing team of extremely well -paid,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-026", "start": 2045.54, "end": 2048.82, "text": "professional, experienced strategists working with him.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-027", "start": 2048.98, "end": 2049.98, "text": "They know this.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-028", "start": 2050.22, "end": 2051.46, "text": "They can see what's going on.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-029", "start": 2052.74, "end": 2054.32, "text": "So what can Biden", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-030", "start": 2054.32, "end": 2059.1, "text": "do to counter Trump's strategy or the polls?", "word_count": 8 } ], "text_sha256": "dbc236752ef1c54f08982367b53ccc1c99e56c78abc39d525e5c57389b9e5918", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0026", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=1969s", "time_label": "32:49", "tags": [ "answer", "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0027", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "start": 2059.3, "end": 2120.048, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Okay? And the answer is this. If you look at 2020, everyone thought that Biden could not get the nomination. Okay? Why? Because he lacks charisma. Nobody really likes him. Okay? So when Biden goes to speak, there's no one there to listen to him. He's boring. And he has no idea. And he's old. I mean, Biden ran for president two times before, and he lost both times. And the reason why is he's not charismatic. And he has no idea. He has no ideas. Okay? But Biden's like, nope, I'm going to stay in the race because I believe I can win. And you ask him, Biden, what is your strategy? What is your reasoning going forward? I don't know. I'm going to win. Okay? So if we were discussing this in 2020, in May and June, I would be like, Biden has no chance. Okay?", "word_count": 148, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-001", "start": 2059.3, "end": 2061.53, "text": "Okay? And the answer is this.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-002", "start": 2063.09, "end": 2064.33, "text": "If you look at 2020,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-003", "start": 2065.74, "end": 2071.53, "text": "everyone thought that Biden could not get the nomination.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-004", "start": 2071.85, "end": 2072.69, "text": "Okay? Why?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-005", "start": 2072.87, "end": 2074.29, "text": "Because he lacks charisma.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-006", "start": 2074.91, "end": 2075.87, "text": "Nobody really likes him.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-007", "start": 2075.97, "end": 2078.71, "text": "Okay? So when Biden goes to speak,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-008", "start": 2078.83, "end": 2080.29, "text": "there's no one there to listen to him.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-009", "start": 2080.35, "end": 2080.97, "text": "He's boring.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-010", "start": 2082.57, "end": 2083.97, "text": "And he has no idea.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-011", "start": 2084.11, "end": 2084.85, "text": "And he's old.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-012", "start": 2086.14, "end": 2088.76, "text": "I mean, Biden ran for president two times before,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-013", "start": 2088.96, "end": 2090.26, "text": "and he lost both times.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-014", "start": 2090.4, "end": 2092.7, "text": "And the reason why is he's not charismatic.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-015", "start": 2092.98, "end": 2093.56, "text": "And he has no idea.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-016", "start": 2093.56, "end": 2094.14, "text": "He has no ideas.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-017", "start": 2094.86, "end": 2097.08, "text": "Okay? But Biden's like, nope,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-018", "start": 2097.22, "end": 2099.72, "text": "I'm going to stay in the race because I believe I can", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-019", "start": 2099.72, "end": 2101.3, "text": "win. And you ask him,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-020", "start": 2101.38, "end": 2103.78, "text": "Biden, what is your strategy?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-021", "start": 2103.98, "end": 2105.22, "text": "What is your reasoning going forward?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-022", "start": 2105.42, "end": 2105.96, "text": "I don't know.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-023", "start": 2106.1, "end": 2106.86, "text": "I'm going to win.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-024", "start": 2107.1, "end": 2112.62, "text": "Okay? So if we were discussing this in 2020,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-025", "start": 2112.9, "end": 2117.04, "text": "in May and June, I would be like,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-026", "start": 2118, "end": 2119.44, "text": "Biden has no chance.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-027", "start": 2119.7, "end": 2120.048, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "41e39bc5fbcadf1d760744d7900acfb01c00a0ef4020dfc8a01e684206215757", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0027", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=2059s", "time_label": "34:19", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0028", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "start": 2120.048, "end": 2189.99, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Because Trump's going to go out there and give speeches to 100,000 people. And they're going to love him. And they're going to go and vote for him. Okay? Biden gives a speech. Everyone falls asleep. And under the debate stage, Trump will destroy Biden. Okay? So I was sure that in May, April 2020, Biden had no chance. But then what happened? Hey, the George Floyd protest happened. So all these young people who didn't really like Biden, they were now galvanized to go vote for him. All these black people, all these suburban voters, they wanted Biden to win because they thought Trump was the bison. Okay? And then what happened? The pandemic happened. So Trump couldn't go out to debate. Trump couldn't go out to campaign anymore. You understand? Biden could just sit in his basement and do nothing. Right? You understand? So unfortunately, Biden learned the wrong lessons from 2020. The lesson that he learned in 2020 is that,", "word_count": 163, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-001", "start": 2120.048, "end": 2124.92, "text": "Because Trump's going to go out there and give speeches to 100,000 people.", "word_count": 13 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-002", "start": 2124.92, "end": 2126.78, "text": "And they're going to love him.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-003", "start": 2126.86, "end": 2128.95, "text": "And they're going to go and vote for him.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-004", "start": 2129.05, "end": 2130.49, "text": "Okay? Biden gives a speech.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-005", "start": 2130.53, "end": 2131.15, "text": "Everyone falls asleep.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-006", "start": 2132.6, "end": 2134.16, "text": "And under the debate stage,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-007", "start": 2134.56, "end": 2135.82, "text": "Trump will destroy Biden.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-008", "start": 2135.98, "end": 2142.94, "text": "Okay? So I was sure that in May,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-009", "start": 2143.14, "end": 2147.08, "text": "April 2020, Biden had no chance.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-010", "start": 2147.4, "end": 2148.22, "text": "But then what happened?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-011", "start": 2148.82, "end": 2152.06, "text": "Hey, the George Floyd protest happened.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-012", "start": 2152.66, "end": 2155.64, "text": "So all these young people who didn't really like Biden,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-013", "start": 2155.76, "end": 2158.04, "text": "they were now galvanized to go vote for him.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-014", "start": 2158.14, "end": 2161.12, "text": "All these black people, all these suburban voters,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-015", "start": 2161.26, "end": 2164.46, "text": "they wanted Biden to win because they thought Trump was the bison.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-016", "start": 2164.8, "end": 2167.01, "text": "Okay? And then what happened?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-017", "start": 2167.07, "end": 2168.17, "text": "The pandemic happened.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-018", "start": 2168.45, "end": 2171.27, "text": "So Trump couldn't go out to debate.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-019", "start": 2171.67, "end": 2173.33, "text": "Trump couldn't go out to campaign anymore.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-020", "start": 2173.73, "end": 2174.43, "text": "You understand?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-021", "start": 2174.69, "end": 2177.89, "text": "Biden could just sit in his basement and do nothing.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-022", "start": 2179.09, "end": 2180.51, "text": "Right? You understand?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-023", "start": 2182.15, "end": 2187.41, "text": "So unfortunately, Biden learned the wrong lessons from 2020.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-024", "start": 2187.71, "end": 2189.99, "text": "The lesson that he learned in 2020 is that,", "word_count": 9 } ], "text_sha256": "20f60dacc28eb457bbdf6591135a4dd35eadc7a174152e2600960c87c702c4aa", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0028", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=2120s", "time_label": "35:20", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0029", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "start": 2190.11, "end": 2211.73, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "hey, if I just sit in my basement all day and make no mistakes, my surrogates, the Democrats, they're going to be like, what? They'll fire up the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, they'll go out and give speeches for me. They'll fire up the base. And I'll win, because I'm not Trump. Okay? That is the entire Biden strategy. I'm not Trump.", "word_count": 66, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-001", "start": 2190.11, "end": 2193.25, "text": "hey, if I just sit in my basement all day and make", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-002", "start": 2193.25, "end": 2196.03, "text": "no mistakes, my surrogates, the Democrats,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-003", "start": 2196.13, "end": 2196.13, "text": "they're going to be like,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-004", "start": 2196.13, "end": 2196.43, "text": "what? They'll fire up the Democratic Party,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-005", "start": 2196.63, "end": 2199.67, "text": "Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-006", "start": 2199.87, "end": 2202.53, "text": "they'll go out and give speeches for me.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-007", "start": 2202.61, "end": 2203.53, "text": "They'll fire up the base.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-008", "start": 2204.23, "end": 2207.31, "text": "And I'll win, because I'm not Trump.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-009", "start": 2207.69, "end": 2209.69, "text": "Okay? That is the entire Biden strategy.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-010", "start": 2210.27, "end": 2211.73, "text": "I'm not Trump.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "079ce557326402619b2cf097f4c3487420ce7274cb27db510c2ce86e719a045d", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0029", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=2190s", "time_label": "36:30", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0030", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "start": 2215.81, "end": 2216.41, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-001", "start": 2215.81, "end": 2216.41, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "fbde817e595df0c8ff19d0091636466638f3742d52658615f50e09b97747e85f", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0030", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=2215s", "time_label": "36:55", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0031", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "start": 2217.3, "end": 2291.71, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "The problem with this idea is, okay, in 2020, the American people had four years of Trump, and they know he sucks. The problem now is the American people have seen four years of Biden, and Biden sucks as well, okay? And so it's a question like, who sucks more, Biden or Trump, okay? So in other words, people are not going to come out to vote because they think both suck, which means that the party with a coalition, with a base that feels more strongly about the issues is going to come out to vote, okay? And what we know is that the Republican coalition of rural voters, conservatives, Christians, white voters, they feel much more passionately about Trump than the Democratic coalition feels about Biden, okay? Does that make sense? So unfortunately, the answer is that Biden has no strategy going forward because he didn't have a strategy going forward in 2020. And he won in 2020.", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-001", "start": 2217.3, "end": 2220.38, "text": "The problem with this idea is,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-002", "start": 2220.68, "end": 2228.34, "text": "okay, in 2020, the American people had four years of Trump,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-003", "start": 2228.48, "end": 2229.54, "text": "and they know he sucks.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-004", "start": 2230.44, "end": 2234.57, "text": "The problem now is the American people have seen four years of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-005", "start": 2234.57, "end": 2237.22, "text": "Biden, and Biden sucks as well,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-006", "start": 2237.32, "end": 2239.26, "text": "okay? And so it's a question like,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-007", "start": 2239.36, "end": 2242.7, "text": "who sucks more, Biden or Trump,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-008", "start": 2242.86, "end": 2244.14, "text": "okay? So in other words,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-009", "start": 2244.3, "end": 2248.27, "text": "people are not going to come out to vote because they think", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-010", "start": 2248.27, "end": 2256.43, "text": "both suck, which means that the party with a coalition,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-011", "start": 2256.57, "end": 2260.13, "text": "with a base that feels more strongly about the issues is going", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-012", "start": 2260.13, "end": 2260.77, "text": "to come out to vote,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-013", "start": 2260.87, "end": 2269.71, "text": "okay? And what we know is that the Republican coalition of rural", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-014", "start": 2269.71, "end": 2274.45, "text": "voters, conservatives, Christians, white voters,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-015", "start": 2274.65, "end": 2279.51, "text": "they feel much more passionately about Trump than the Democratic coalition feels", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-016", "start": 2279.51, "end": 2280.91, "text": "about Biden, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-017", "start": 2281.01, "end": 2281.71, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-018", "start": 2282.07, "end": 2287.99, "text": "So unfortunately, the answer is that Biden has no strategy going forward", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-019", "start": 2287.99, "end": 2290.07, "text": "because he didn't have a strategy going forward in 2020.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-020", "start": 2290.39, "end": 2291.71, "text": "And he won in 2020.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "66761458ed1b4f062dee05e62ddfd3286df1b6256abdc5335203b6890bd0d56c", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0031", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=2217s", "time_label": "36:57", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0032", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "start": 2291.97, "end": 2371.6, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "So why can't the Senate? Why can't something happen this year, right? And unfortunately, because Biden is so old, he's 81, he doesn't have the energy to change the way he is, you understand? It's much easier for him to sit around and pray that I'm not Trump will deliver another election than it is for him to go out and change who we are. He can't change who we are, okay? Does that make sense? Okay, but that's a great question. All right? Any more questions before? Okay, so again, I am not sure who will win this year, okay? I think it's Trump. I'm not sure that Nikki Haley will be his vice president. I'm just making a guess. So the question then is, why are we doing this? And the answer is this. We try to think. We have to build an analytical model. Right? Of how the world works. And the only way we know if this model works or not is by making predictions and testing it against reality.", "word_count": 174, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-001", "start": 2291.97, "end": 2292.89, "text": "So why can't the Senate?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-002", "start": 2292.91, "end": 2296.4, "text": "Why can't something happen this year,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-003", "start": 2296.5, "end": 2302.52, "text": "right? And unfortunately, because Biden is so old,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-004", "start": 2302.58, "end": 2308.12, "text": "he's 81, he doesn't have the energy to change the way he", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-005", "start": 2308.12, "end": 2309.2, "text": "is, you understand?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-006", "start": 2309.82, "end": 2315.28, "text": "It's much easier for him to sit around and pray that I'm", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-007", "start": 2315.28, "end": 2319.14, "text": "not Trump will deliver another election than it is for him to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-008", "start": 2319.14, "end": 2320.74, "text": "go out and change who we are.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-009", "start": 2320.86, "end": 2321.64, "text": "He can't change who we are,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-010", "start": 2321.8, "end": 2325.1, "text": "okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-011", "start": 2325.64, "end": 2326.8, "text": "Okay, but that's a great question.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-012", "start": 2326.82, "end": 2328.16, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-013", "start": 2330, "end": 2335.12, "text": "Any more questions before?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-014", "start": 2341.72, "end": 2348.8, "text": "Okay, so again, I am not sure who will win this year,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-015", "start": 2348.88, "end": 2349.82, "text": "okay? I think it's Trump.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-016", "start": 2350.06, "end": 2354.4, "text": "I'm not sure that Nikki Haley will be his vice president.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-017", "start": 2354.62, "end": 2355.58, "text": "I'm just making a guess.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-018", "start": 2355.82, "end": 2357.3, "text": "So the question then is,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-019", "start": 2357.48, "end": 2358.42, "text": "why are we doing this?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-020", "start": 2358.54, "end": 2359.32, "text": "And the answer is this.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-021", "start": 2359.86, "end": 2361.58, "text": "We try to think.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-022", "start": 2361.78, "end": 2363.82, "text": "We have to build an analytical model.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-023", "start": 2363.92, "end": 2365.52, "text": "Right? Of how the world works.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-024", "start": 2366.06, "end": 2367.5, "text": "And the only way we know if", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-025", "start": 2367.5, "end": 2371.14, "text": "this model works or not is by making predictions and testing it", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-026", "start": 2371.14, "end": 2371.6, "text": "against reality.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "d7af047a5ba9f2c8b0cc89aade271d939d48323534ffbe504ab5b9bd9f55d95d", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0032", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=2291s", "time_label": "38:11", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0033", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "start": 2372.54, "end": 2427.3, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Okay? So you know what? It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, okay? Possibly someone named J.D. Vance, okay? The only thing you need to know about J.D. Vance is he's very loyal to Trump. It's possible he picks J.D. Vance, okay? I think he'll pick Nikki Haley. Okay? I often actually... I often think that there's a very good chance he picks J.D. Vance as well, okay? But I'll make the bet that he picks Nikki Haley. Okay? So it's possible in August he does not pick Nikki Haley. He picks J.D. Vance or someone else instead, okay? It's also possible that in November, Trump loses, okay? Well, that's fine because if I'm wrong, then what I do is I go back to this analysis and I make changes to this analysis. Okay?", "word_count": 142, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-001", "start": 2372.54, "end": 2374.68, "text": "Okay? So you know what?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-002", "start": 2375.08, "end": 2377.18, "text": "It's possible that in August,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-003", "start": 2377.92, "end": 2380.66, "text": "Trump will pick someone else,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-004", "start": 2380.72, "end": 2382.46, "text": "okay? Possibly someone named J.D.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-005", "start": 2382.46, "end": 2383.14, "text": "Vance, okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-006", "start": 2386.36, "end": 2388.52, "text": "The only thing you need to know about J.D.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-007", "start": 2388.56, "end": 2389.94, "text": "Vance is he's very loyal to Trump.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-008", "start": 2390.4, "end": 2392.72, "text": "It's possible he picks J.D.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-009", "start": 2392.72, "end": 2393.1, "text": "Vance, okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-010", "start": 2393.18, "end": 2394.32, "text": "I think he'll pick Nikki Haley.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-011", "start": 2394.62, "end": 2395.96, "text": "Okay? I often actually...", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-012", "start": 2398.08, "end": 2401.16, "text": "I often think that there's a very good chance he picks J", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-013", "start": 2401.16, "end": 2402.06, "text": ".D. Vance as well, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-014", "start": 2402.18, "end": 2404.42, "text": "But I'll make the bet that he picks Nikki Haley.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-015", "start": 2404.86, "end": 2409.16, "text": "Okay? So it's possible in August he does not pick Nikki Haley.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-016", "start": 2409.24, "end": 2410.44, "text": "He picks J.D.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-017", "start": 2410.44, "end": 2411.36, "text": "Vance or someone else instead,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-018", "start": 2411.44, "end": 2415.1, "text": "okay? It's also possible that in November,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-019", "start": 2415.26, "end": 2417.06, "text": "Trump loses, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-020", "start": 2418.12, "end": 2420.68, "text": "Well, that's fine because if I'm wrong,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-021", "start": 2420.86, "end": 2424.48, "text": "then what I do is I go back to this analysis and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-022", "start": 2424.48, "end": 2426.48, "text": "I make changes to this analysis.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-023", "start": 2427, "end": 2427.3, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "6b8629b7074f6b61eb59e4fd54cfdf0c77143ae543293555dd338310d11a86a6", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0033", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=2372s", "time_label": "39:32", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0034", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "start": 2427.3, "end": 2486.84, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the world. By building analytical models that we can then test against reality and then based on what happens in reality, we can go and refine our analytical model. All right? Any questions? Okay. Okay. So next week, we discuss... So next week, we discuss the war in Iran, okay? Because if you look at this, again, if Nikki Haley becomes the vice president, it is very likely she will agitate for war against Iran, and Trump will go along, okay? And if that's the case, then we need to understand how America will fight the war and how Iran will respond. And that's what we will do next week, okay?", "word_count": 134, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-001", "start": 2427.3, "end": 2431.88, "text": "So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay?", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-002", "start": 2431.94, "end": 2432.42, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-003", "start": 2433.71, "end": 2439.03, "text": "Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the world.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-004", "start": 2439.15, "end": 2443.33, "text": "By building analytical models that we can then test against reality and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-005", "start": 2443.33, "end": 2445.57, "text": "then based on what happens in reality,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-006", "start": 2445.89, "end": 2449.07, "text": "we can go and refine our analytical model.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-007", "start": 2449.8, "end": 2450.36, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-008", "start": 2450.94, "end": 2451.84, "text": "Any questions?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-009", "start": 2455.2, "end": 2456.32, "text": "Okay. Okay.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-010", "start": 2456.32, "end": 2460.85, "text": "So next week, we discuss...", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-011", "start": 2460.85, "end": 2462.31, "text": "So next week, we discuss the war in Iran,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-012", "start": 2462.53, "end": 2466.07, "text": "okay? Because if you look at this,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-013", "start": 2466.33, "end": 2469.87, "text": "again, if Nikki Haley becomes the vice president,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-014", "start": 2470.09, "end": 2474.27, "text": "it is very likely she will agitate for war against Iran,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-015", "start": 2474.49, "end": 2476.49, "text": "and Trump will go along,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-016", "start": 2476.67, "end": 2479.12, "text": "okay? And if that's the case,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-017", "start": 2479.18, "end": 2482.66, "text": "then we need to understand how America will fight the war and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-018", "start": 2482.66, "end": 2483.68, "text": "how Iran will respond.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-019", "start": 2483.98, "end": 2486.64, "text": "And that's what we will do next week,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-020", "start": 2486.72, "end": 2486.84, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "30d75aada6f9021563610a2f64eb1feb27a876ced2b997d66f57367d57e44cb8", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-exrk-85630k/transcript/#seg-0034", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exRK-85630k&t=2427s", "time_label": "40:27", "tags": [ "monologue" ] } ], "interactions": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang opens a class lecture by predicting that Trump will win in November 2024 and pick Nikki Haley as vice president, then decomposes Biden's 2020 coalition into Black voters, young voters, college-educated voters, women, and suburban voters to explain why that coalition may weaken.", "speaker_attribution": "Likely Jiang presenting a classroom lecture; brief prompts to students are folded into the monologue and no separate substantive audience answer is captured in these focus refs.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.82, "end": 88.92, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay, so let's begin class. And today we are discussing whether or not Trump will win in November. And I'm making the prediction that he will win in November and that he will pick Nikki Haley as his vice president. Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 89.04, "end": 157.77, "time_label": "1:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Assuming that if 65,000 people in key battleground states flip their votes, then Trump would have won. Okay, so the margin of victory was very, very close, as is usually the case in highly contested American elections...." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 158.55, "end": 230.208, "time_label": "2:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "But this year the debt is paid off, right? So they won't feel so loyal to Biden, okay? Also in 2020, there's something called a George Floyd protest. So what happened was that in May 2020, a black man in Minneapolis, Ge..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 230.208, "end": 300.65, "time_label": "3:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "And in fact, you can make the argument that Biden has really hurt the standard of living of black people, why? Because inflation has gone up, okay? When inflation goes up, it usually hurts poor people the most, okay? Th..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 301.15, "end": 379.92, "time_label": "5:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So many Americans see this as just bad leadership, okay? So that's black people. And recent polls show that actually Biden's lead with black people is not as much as it was in 2020, okay? So this lead is going down. You..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 380.88, "end": 442.08, "time_label": "6:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Now let's look at the college educated. Okay, so 70 % of people with college degrees voted for Biden. These are what we call the, the coastal elite, right? The coastal professional managerial elite. And they usually ove..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 443.24, "end": 532.2, "time_label": "7:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Women, okay? So 54 % of women voted for Biden. 44 % voted for Trump. Okay? And again, because Trump is seen as this hateful figure, we expect that women will still consistently vote Democratic this year, okay? And also..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 532.94, "end": 617.255, "time_label": "8:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "That's a flip of 2 million voters, okay? So in elections, usually it's a suburban vote that determines the election, because the swing voters. So for Trump to win this year, he needs to win the suburban vote. He won tha..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang explains why suburbs moved to Biden in 2020: they wanted stability, disliked Trump's polarization and pandemic handling, and read Biden's choice of Kamala Harris as a redemption story. He then argues Trump can copy the move by selecting Nikki Haley, who appeals to college-educated suburban women despite the apparent Trump-Haley feud.", "speaker_attribution": "Likely Jiang, with occasional classroom prompts and untranscribed audience replies summarized by him.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 617.255, "end": 682.4, "time_label": "10:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Because if you live in the suburbs, you tend to be middle class, you tend to be pretty wealthy and more educated. So you like the status quo. You want a leader who's conservative and who's a unifier. And throughout the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 683.16, "end": 753.29, "time_label": "11:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Second was the pandemic. So as you know, COVID hit the United States, and the suburbs were extremely freaked out about this because they tend to have children who go to school, they tend to be older, and we see that as..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 753.91, "end": 831.928, "time_label": "12:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So her mom raised the two girls by herself. And Kamala Harris is an extremely accomplished person. She went to Stanford. Then she became attorney general of California, then became a US Senator, okay? And there are thre..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 831.928, "end": 916.47, "time_label": "13:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "They want safety, they want security, they just have kids. And the third reason why they like Kamala Harris is because of the redemption story. So, in 2019, there's a Democratic primary, okay? This is when the Democrats..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 916.51, "end": 979.6, "time_label": "15:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "for 50 years, and some of your policies I don't support. For example, you do not support the integration of black and white students together. Well, you know what, Joe? I'm a black student. I was a black little girl, gr..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 979.68, "end": 1071.932, "time_label": "16:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Anyone? Yes, okay, exactly, okay? Doesn't hold grudges, what else? What else? What else? Doesn't hold grudges. He's a very forgiving man. What else? Good, yes, he listens, right? He's a listener. He's a team player, oka..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1071.932, "end": 1165.14, "time_label": "17:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? And this is why Biden was able to win in 2020. So this year, what can Trump do to win the suburbs? What can he do? Yeah, he can copy this exact same thing, okay? And it turns out he can do this, ok..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1166.16, "end": 1241.02, "time_label": "19:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Guess who just loved her? Who voted for her in droves? Guess what demographic group? Anyone? Suburban woman, okay, do you understand? College educated suburban woman, okay? So in other words, if Trump brings her onto th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Jiang asks students what impression Biden's VP choice creates and later asks which demographic liked Haley; student responses are not independently transcribed, but Jiang repeats the answers as 'doesn't hold grudges,' 'listens,' 'team player,' 'empathy,' and 'suburban woman'.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang plus untranscribed students inferred from his replies.", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 979.68, "end": 1071.932, "time_label": "16:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Anyone? Yes, okay, exactly, okay? Doesn't hold grudges, what else? What else? What else? Doesn't hold grudges. He's a very forgiving man. What else? Good, yes, he listens, right? He's a listener. He's a team player, oka..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1166.16, "end": 1241.02, "time_label": "19:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Guess who just loved her? Who voted for her in droves? Guess what demographic group? Anyone? Suburban woman, okay, do you understand? College educated suburban woman, okay? So in other words, if Trump brings her onto th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang argues that Trump choosing Haley after insulting and rejecting her would create a changed-man narrative, then shifts to Haley's donor and institutional ties to argue that her vice-presidential role would be to push war with Iran.", "speaker_attribution": "Likely Jiang lecturing.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1241.02, "end": 1314, "time_label": "20:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "And Trump likes loyalty. Also, hey guys, Trump holds grudges, right? And he doesn't listen, and he's not a team player, and he lacks empathy. So there's no way he would pick Nikki Haley. And in fact, this past week, the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1314.66, "end": 1393.35, "time_label": "21:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "How would people feel about him? Well, what would the suburbs say? think about Trump how do you feel if you saw this he's a changed man right Trump has grown remember like the narrative about Trump is he is a five -year..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1393.35, "end": 1457.62, "time_label": "23:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "he wins so if he picks Nikki Haley in August he will win okay I'm not completely sure that it will pick Nikki Haley I think that this is his best strategic move okay but Trump is not really predictable all right and who..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1457.62, "end": 1557.117, "time_label": "24:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "got her she got this money mainly for an organization called United against a nuclear Iran okay and this organization's primary purpose is to create conflict between the United States and Iran okay they they go against..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1557.117, "end": 1638.747, "time_label": "25:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Second thing is that in 2019, she got a job at Boeing. Boeing is a weapons manufacturer. They make airplanes, but they mainly make bombs and missiles, okay? So they love war. She sat on the board of Boeing, an extremely..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1638.747, "end": 1713.468, "time_label": "27:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "She'll be the one in the White House pushing for war in Iran. Escalating tension in Iran, okay? So Nikki Haley, okay, what's also interesting is, okay, in January 2019, basically the primary is over. Trump has won every..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1713.468, "end": 1801.23, "time_label": "28:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So she comes across as an extremely popular exception figure, okay? So this doesn't make sense, okay? So the conclusion is that given the way, the situation in the United States, it seems very likely Trump will win in 2..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "After inviting questions, Jiang paraphrases Jack's question about whether Haley might hold a grudge and refuse Trump's offer, then answers by framing the feud as theater staged for a dramatic reconciliation.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answering an audience question from Jack; Jack's exact words are not separately transcribed.", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1713.468, "end": 1801.23, "time_label": "28:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So she comes across as an extremely popular exception figure, okay? So this doesn't make sense, okay? So the conclusion is that given the way, the situation in the United States, it seems very likely Trump will win in 2..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1818.63, "end": 1898.4, "time_label": "30:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay. So Jack asked a great question, okay? He's like... He's like, what if Haley holds a grudge and says no, right? And quite honestly, she has been asked in the past, are you willing to serve as Trump's vice president..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang continues answering Jack by saying Haley and Trump historically got along, then generalizes that successful politicians are opportunists who care above all about power, making the vice presidency rational for Haley.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answering Jack's prior question.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1898.44, "end": 1969.907, "time_label": "31:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So from 2016 to 2018, she was UN ambassador for Trump. And everyone says that the two got along really well. In fact, Trump was considering having her be his VP, running mate, in 2016. In 2020, he was thinking of droppi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1969.907, "end": 2059.1, "time_label": "32:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay? So that's the thing you need to know about politicians, okay? All they care about is political power. They will do anything to achieve political power. They will sell their own mother. Okay?..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Jiang identifies another question from Jack about what Biden can do to counter Trump's strategy or the polls.", "speaker_attribution": "Jack's question is paraphrased by Jiang; Jiang speaks the transcribed words.", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1969.907, "end": 2059.1, "time_label": "32:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay? So that's the thing you need to know about politicians, okay? All they care about is political power. They will do anything to achieve political power. They will sell their own mother. Okay?..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang answers that Biden has no real counterstrategy: he won in 2020 because George Floyd and the pandemic changed the environment, learned the wrong lesson that he could hide behind 'I'm not Trump,' and now lacks the energy to change while the Republican coalition feels more passionate.", "speaker_attribution": "Likely Jiang; seg-0030 is a one-word UNKNOWN span with no substantive effect.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 2059.3, "end": 2120.048, "time_label": "34:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? And the answer is this. If you look at 2020, everyone thought that Biden could not get the nomination. Okay? Why? Because he lacks charisma. Nobody really likes him. Okay? So when Biden goes to speak, there's no o..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2120.048, "end": 2189.99, "time_label": "35:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Because Trump's going to go out there and give speeches to 100,000 people. And they're going to love him. And they're going to go and vote for him. Okay? Biden gives a speech. Everyone falls asleep. And under the debate..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2190.11, "end": 2211.73, "time_label": "36:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "hey, if I just sit in my basement all day and make no mistakes, my surrogates, the Democrats, they're going to be like, what? They'll fire up the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, they'll go..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2215.81, "end": 2216.41, "time_label": "36:55", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Okay?" }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2217.3, "end": 2291.71, "time_label": "36:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "The problem with this idea is, okay, in 2020, the American people had four years of Trump, and they know he sucks. The problem now is the American people have seen four years of Biden, and Biden sucks as well, okay? And..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2291.97, "end": 2371.6, "time_label": "38:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So why can't the Senate? Why can't something happen this year, right? And unfortunately, because Biden is so old, he's 81, he doesn't have the energy to change the way he is, you understand? It's much easier for him to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang closes by acknowledging that Trump could pick someone else, especially J.D. Vance, and that Trump could lose. He frames being wrong as useful because the analyst can revise the model, then previews the next class on Iran if a Haley vice presidency pushes toward war.", "speaker_attribution": "Likely Jiang closing the class lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2372.54, "end": 2427.3, "time_label": "39:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? So you know what? It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, okay? Possibly someone named J.D. Vance, okay? The only thing you need to know about J.D. Vance is he's very loyal to Trump. It's possi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2427.3, "end": 2486.84, "time_label": "40:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the world. By building analytical models that we can then test against reality and then b..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "speaker_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "note": "The diarization labels these focus refs as SPEAKER_01 and the content reads as a continuous classroom lecture with occasional rhetorical questions.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.82, "end": 88.92, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay, so let's begin class. And today we are discussing whether or not Trump will win in November. And I'm making the prediction that he will win in November and that he will pick Nikki Haley as his vice president. Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 532.94, "end": 617.255, "time_label": "8:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "That's a flip of 2 million voters, okay? So in elections, usually it's a suburban vote that determines the election, because the swing voters. So for Trump to win this year, he needs to win the suburban vote. He won tha..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "note": "The segment labels remain SPEAKER_01; audience participation appears only through Jiang's prompts and repeated answers.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 617.255, "end": 682.4, "time_label": "10:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Because if you live in the suburbs, you tend to be middle class, you tend to be pretty wealthy and more educated. So you like the status quo. You want a leader who's conservative and who's a unifier. And throughout the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1166.16, "end": 1241.02, "time_label": "19:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Guess who just loved her? Who voted for her in droves? Guess what demographic group? Anyone? Suburban woman, okay, do you understand? College educated suburban woman, okay? So in other words, if Trump brings her onto th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "note": "All focus refs are diarized as SPEAKER_01; Jack is identified only through Jiang's paraphrase.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1241.02, "end": 1314, "time_label": "20:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "And Trump likes loyalty. Also, hey guys, Trump holds grudges, right? And he doesn't listen, and he's not a team player, and he lacks empathy. So there's no way he would pick Nikki Haley. And in fact, this past week, the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1818.63, "end": 1898.4, "time_label": "30:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay. So Jack asked a great question, okay? He's like... He's like, what if Haley holds a grudge and says no, right? And quite honestly, she has been asked in the past, are you willing to serve as Trump's vice president..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "note": "The only UNKNOWN span is a one-word 'Okay?' between Jiang's comments on Biden's 'I'm not Trump' strategy and his next point; it may be an audience acknowledgment, crosstalk, or diarization artifact.", "suggested_speaker": null, "confidence": "low", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2215.81, "end": 2216.41, "time_label": "36:55", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Okay?" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "note": "Aside from seg-0030, the focus refs read as Jiang answering classroom questions and returning to monologue.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1898.44, "end": 1969.907, "time_label": "31:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So from 2016 to 2018, she was UN ambassador for Trump. And everyone says that the two got along really well. In fact, Trump was considering having her be his VP, running mate, in 2016. In 2020, he was thinking of droppi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2291.97, "end": 2371.6, "time_label": "38:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So why can't the Senate? Why can't something happen this year, right? And unfortunately, because Biden is so old, he's 81, he doesn't have the energy to change the way he is, you understand? It's much easier for him to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "note": "Both focus refs are diarized as SPEAKER_01 and read as Jiang's concluding methodological statement and preview.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2372.54, "end": 2427.3, "time_label": "39:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? So you know what? It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, okay? Possibly someone named J.D. Vance, okay? The only thing you need to know about J.D. Vance is he's very loyal to Trump. It's possi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2427.3, "end": 2486.84, "time_label": "40:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the world. By building analytical models that we can then test against reality and then b..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "claims": [ { "claim": "Jiang predicts that Trump will win the November 2024 election and pick Nikki Haley as his vice president.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking prediction made on 2024-05-17 about November 2024.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "nikki-haley", "2024-election", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.82, "end": 88.92, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay, so let's begin class. And today we are discussing whether or not Trump will win in November. And I'm making the prediction that he will win in November and that he will pick Nikki Haley as his vice president. Okay..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang frames Biden's 2020 victory as numerically large in popular votes but structurally narrow because the Electoral College margin could be described as roughly 65,000 key-state votes.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective assessment of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.", "topic_tags": [ "biden", "2020-election", "electoral-college" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.82, "end": 88.92, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay, so let's begin class. And today we are discussing whether or not Trump will win in November. And I'm making the prediction that he will win in November and that he will pick Nikki Haley as his vice president. Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 89.04, "end": 157.77, "time_label": "1:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Assuming that if 65,000 people in key battleground states flip their votes, then Trump would have won. Okay, so the margin of victory was very, very close, as is usually the case in highly contested American elections...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that older Black voters supported Biden in 2020 partly from loyalty to Obama's vice president, but that by 2024 the debt has been paid and Biden must answer what he has done for them.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "temporal_scope": "Diagnosis of 2020 coalition mechanics and 2024 coalition risk.", "topic_tags": [ "black-voters", "biden", "obama", "coalition" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 89.04, "end": 157.77, "time_label": "1:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Assuming that if 65,000 people in key battleground states flip their votes, then Trump would have won. Okay, so the margin of victory was very, very close, as is usually the case in highly contested American elections...." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 158.55, "end": 230.208, "time_label": "2:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "But this year the debt is paid off, right? So they won't feel so loyal to Biden, okay? Also in 2020, there's something called a George Floyd protest. So what happened was that in May 2020, a black man in Minneapolis, Ge..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the George Floyd protests made Black voters and young voters view Trump as hostile or racist in 2020, but that this anti-Trump mobilization may not transfer to Biden in 2024.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "temporal_scope": "Comparison between 2020 turnout dynamics and expected 2024 turnout.", "topic_tags": [ "george-floyd", "young-voters", "black-voters", "anti-trump" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 158.55, "end": 230.208, "time_label": "2:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "But this year the debt is paid off, right? So they won't feel so loyal to Biden, okay? Also in 2020, there's something called a George Floyd protest. So what happened was that in May 2020, a black man in Minneapolis, Ge..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 301.15, "end": 379.92, "time_label": "5:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So many Americans see this as just bad leadership, okay? So that's black people. And recent polls show that actually Biden's lead with black people is not as much as it was in 2020, okay? So this lead is going down. You..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that inflation, illegal immigration, and Ukraine aid damage Biden among Black and poorer voters by lowering living standards and making Biden look like a bad leader.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "temporal_scope": "Diagnosis of U.S. political conditions in May 2024.", "topic_tags": [ "inflation", "immigration", "ukraine", "black-voters", "biden" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 230.208, "end": 300.65, "time_label": "3:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "And in fact, you can make the argument that Biden has really hurt the standard of living of black people, why? Because inflation has gone up, okay? When inflation goes up, it usually hurts poor people the most, okay? Th..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 301.15, "end": 379.92, "time_label": "5:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So many Americans see this as just bad leadership, okay? So that's black people. And recent polls show that actually Biden's lead with black people is not as much as it was in 2020, okay? So this lead is going down. You..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts that Gaza protests will cause some young voters to sit out rather than vote for Biden, even if they will not vote for Trump.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking turnout prediction for the 2024 election, made during campus Gaza protests.", "topic_tags": [ "gaza", "young-voters", "biden", "turnout" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 301.15, "end": 379.92, "time_label": "5:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So many Americans see this as just bad leadership, okay? So that's black people. And recent polls show that actually Biden's lead with black people is not as much as it was in 2020, okay? So this lead is going down. You..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says college-educated voters remain the core Democratic base, but that Ukraine and Gaza make them less enthusiastic and more likely to vote against Trump than for Biden.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "temporal_scope": "Diagnosis of 2024 college-educated voting behavior.", "topic_tags": [ "college-educated-voters", "democratic-base", "ukraine", "gaza" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 380.88, "end": 442.08, "time_label": "6:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Now let's look at the college educated. Okay, so 70 % of people with college degrees voted for Biden. These are what we call the, the coastal elite, right? The coastal professional managerial elite. And they usually ove..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang expects women to keep voting Democratic because of Trump's image and abortion rights, while identifying suburban voters as the decisive battleground Trump must win back.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction and electoral model for the 2024 election.", "topic_tags": [ "women-voters", "abortion", "suburban-voters", "swing-voters" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 443.24, "end": 532.2, "time_label": "7:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Women, okay? So 54 % of women voted for Biden. 44 % voted for Trump. Okay? And again, because Trump is seen as this hateful figure, we expect that women will still consistently vote Democratic this year, okay? And also..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 532.94, "end": 617.255, "time_label": "8:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "That's a flip of 2 million voters, okay? So in elections, usually it's a suburban vote that determines the election, because the swing voters. So for Trump to win this year, he needs to win the suburban vote. He won tha..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that the mainstream media narrative during Trump's presidency first used Russiagate and then the divisive-figure frame to push suburbs away from Trump.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective diagnosis of Trump-era media narratives and the 2020 suburban vote.", "topic_tags": [ "media-narrative", "russiagate", "suburban-voters", "trump" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 532.94, "end": 617.255, "time_label": "8:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "That's a flip of 2 million voters, okay? So in elections, usually it's a suburban vote that determines the election, because the swing voters. So for Trump to win this year, he needs to win the suburban vote. He won tha..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that suburban voters tend to prefer status quo, conservative, unifying leadership, which made Biden's steady establishment image attractive in 2020.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0009" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective diagnosis of the 2020 suburban vote.", "topic_tags": [ "suburban-voters", "status-quo", "biden", "2020-election" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 617.255, "end": 682.4, "time_label": "10:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Because if you live in the suburbs, you tend to be middle class, you tend to be pretty wealthy and more educated. So you like the status quo. You want a leader who's conservative and who's a unifier. And throughout the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the pandemic damaged Trump in the suburbs because families with children and older voters saw his handling as incompetent.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective diagnosis of 2020 pandemic politics.", "topic_tags": [ "pandemic", "trump", "suburban-voters" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 683.16, "end": 753.29, "time_label": "11:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Second was the pandemic. So as you know, COVID hit the United States, and the suburbs were extremely freaked out about this because they tend to have children who go to school, they tend to be older, and we see that as..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang identifies Kamala Harris as a key reason Biden won suburbs: she appeared educated, articulate, smart, conservative, establishment, and tough on crime.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective diagnosis of the 2020 Biden-Harris ticket.", "topic_tags": [ "kamala-harris", "suburban-voters", "establishment", "tough-on-crime" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 683.16, "end": 753.29, "time_label": "11:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Second was the pandemic. So as you know, COVID hit the United States, and the suburbs were extremely freaked out about this because they tend to have children who go to school, they tend to be older, and we see that as..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 753.91, "end": 831.928, "time_label": "12:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So her mom raised the two girls by herself. And Kamala Harris is an extremely accomplished person. She went to Stanford. Then she became attorney general of California, then became a US Senator, okay? And there are thre..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that Harris attacking Biden in the 2019 debate and then becoming his running mate created a redemption story that made Biden look forgiving, listening, team-oriented, and empathetic.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "temporal_scope": "Model of the 2020 VP-pick narrative.", "topic_tags": [ "redemption-story", "kamala-harris", "biden", "suburban-women" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 831.928, "end": 916.47, "time_label": "13:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "They want safety, they want security, they just have kids. And the third reason why they like Kamala Harris is because of the redemption story. So, in 2019, there's a Democratic primary, okay? This is when the Democrats..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 916.51, "end": 979.6, "time_label": "15:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "for 50 years, and some of your policies I don't support. For example, you do not support the integration of black and white students together. Well, you know what, Joe? I'm a black student. I was a black little girl, gr..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 979.68, "end": 1071.932, "time_label": "16:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Anyone? Yes, okay, exactly, okay? Doesn't hold grudges, what else? What else? What else? Doesn't hold grudges. He's a very forgiving man. What else? Good, yes, he listens, right? He's a listener. He's a team player, oka..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang describes 'doesn't hold grudges,' 'listens,' 'team player,' and 'empathy' as the anti-Trump traits that helped move suburban women toward Biden.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "temporal_scope": "Electoral narrative model for 2020 and template for 2024.", "topic_tags": [ "anti-trump", "empathy", "suburban-women", "biden" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 979.68, "end": 1071.932, "time_label": "16:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Anyone? Yes, okay, exactly, okay? Doesn't hold grudges, what else? What else? What else? Doesn't hold grudges. He's a very forgiving man. What else? Good, yes, he listens, right? He's a listener. He's a team player, oka..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that Trump can win the suburbs in 2024 by copying Biden's VP-redemption narrative with Nikki Haley.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0015" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking strategy claim for the 2024 election.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "nikki-haley", "suburban-voters", "vp-pick" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1071.932, "end": 1165.14, "time_label": "17:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? And this is why Biden was able to win in 2020. So this year, what can Trump do to win the suburbs? What can he do? Yeah, he can copy this exact same thing, okay? And it turns out he can do this, ok..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Nikki Haley resembles Kamala Harris in the relevant electoral frame because she is South Asian, from an immigrant family, accomplished, and acceptable to suburban voters.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "temporal_scope": "Comparison made on 2024-05-17.", "topic_tags": [ "nikki-haley", "kamala-harris", "suburban-voters", "identity" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1071.932, "end": 1165.14, "time_label": "17:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? And this is why Biden was able to win in 2020. So this year, what can Trump do to win the suburbs? What can he do? Yeah, he can copy this exact same thing, okay? And it turns out he can do this, ok..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1166.16, "end": 1241.02, "time_label": "19:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Guess who just loved her? Who voted for her in droves? Guess what demographic group? Anyone? Suburban woman, okay, do you understand? College educated suburban woman, okay? So in other words, if Trump brings her onto th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Haley's strongest 2024 primary constituency was college-educated suburban women, making her strategically useful to Trump.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "temporal_scope": "Assessment of Haley's Republican primary appeal in 2024.", "topic_tags": [ "nikki-haley", "college-educated-women", "suburban-women", "republican-primary" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1166.16, "end": 1241.02, "time_label": "19:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Guess who just loved her? Who voted for her in droves? Guess what demographic group? Anyone? Suburban woman, okay, do you understand? College educated suburban woman, okay? So in other words, if Trump brings her onto th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang frames the Trump-Haley primary fight as the apparent obstacle that makes a later VP pick look impossible: Haley called Trump divisive, and Trump called Haley a bird brain and stupid.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "temporal_scope": "Setup for a 2024 reconciliation prediction.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "nikki-haley", "primary-feud", "narrative" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1166.16, "end": 1241.02, "time_label": "19:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Guess who just loved her? Who voted for her in droves? Guess what demographic group? Anyone? Suburban woman, okay, do you understand? College educated suburban woman, okay? So in other words, if Trump brings her onto th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that if Trump picks Haley after saying he would not consider her, suburban voters and media can read him as changed, grown, forgiving, willing to listen, and empathetic.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "temporal_scope": "Conditional 2024 election narrative prediction.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "nikki-haley", "changed-man-narrative", "suburban-voters" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1241.02, "end": 1314, "time_label": "20:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "And Trump likes loyalty. Also, hey guys, Trump holds grudges, right? And he doesn't listen, and he's not a team player, and he lacks empathy. So there's no way he would pick Nikki Haley. And in fact, this past week, the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1314.66, "end": 1393.35, "time_label": "21:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "How would people feel about him? Well, what would the suburbs say? think about Trump how do you feel if you saw this he's a changed man right Trump has grown remember like the narrative about Trump is he is a five -year..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts that if Trump picks Haley in August, he will win, while also saying the pick is Trump's best strategic move rather than a certainty.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking prediction about August and November 2024.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "nikki-haley", "vp-pick", "2024-election" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1393.35, "end": 1457.62, "time_label": "23:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "he wins so if he picks Nikki Haley in August he will win okay I'm not completely sure that it will pick Nikki Haley I think that this is his best strategic move okay but Trump is not really predictable all right and who..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Trump's vice-presidential choice will provide a clue to how he would govern as president.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "temporal_scope": "General political inference model applied to the 2024 election.", "topic_tags": [ "vp-pick", "governance", "trump" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1393.35, "end": 1457.62, "time_label": "23:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "he wins so if he picks Nikki Haley in August he will win okay I'm not completely sure that it will pick Nikki Haley I think that this is his best strategic move okay but Trump is not really predictable all right and who..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang claims Haley left Washington in 2018 with little money but later had ten million dollars and a five-million-dollar mansion, which he uses to ask who paid her.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "temporal_scope": "Claim about Haley's finances after leaving office, stated on 2024-05-17.", "topic_tags": [ "nikki-haley", "money", "influence" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1393.35, "end": 1457.62, "time_label": "23:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "he wins so if he picks Nikki Haley in August he will win okay I'm not completely sure that it will pick Nikki Haley I think that this is his best strategic move okay but Trump is not really predictable all right and who..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says United Against a Nuclear Iran paid Haley and exists to create conflict between the United States and Iran by targeting people or companies doing business with Iran.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "temporal_scope": "Assessment of UANI and Haley's relationship, stated on 2024-05-17.", "topic_tags": [ "nikki-haley", "united-against-nuclear-iran", "iran", "influence-network" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1457.62, "end": 1557.117, "time_label": "24:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "got her she got this money mainly for an organization called United against a nuclear Iran okay and this organization's primary purpose is to create conflict between the United States and Iran okay they they go against..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang links UANI to Sheldon Adelson and Benjamin Netanyahu, arguing that pro-Israel donor networks connect Haley to anti-Iranian policy.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "temporal_scope": "Influence-network diagnosis stated on 2024-05-17.", "topic_tags": [ "sheldon-adelson", "netanyahu", "israel", "iran", "nikki-haley" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1457.62, "end": 1557.117, "time_label": "24:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "got her she got this money mainly for an organization called United against a nuclear Iran okay and this organization's primary purpose is to create conflict between the United States and Iran okay they they go against..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Haley's Boeing board position and speeches to Christians United for Israel show she is embedded in constituencies that favor Middle East conflict.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021" ], "temporal_scope": "Assessment of Haley's institutional ties before the 2024 election.", "topic_tags": [ "nikki-haley", "boeing", "christians-united-for-israel", "middle-east-war" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1557.117, "end": 1638.747, "time_label": "25:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Second thing is that in 2019, she got a job at Boeing. Boeing is a weapons manufacturer. They make airplanes, but they mainly make bombs and missiles, okay? So they love war. She sat on the board of Boeing, an extremely..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts that if Haley becomes vice president, her main responsibility will be to agitate for war against Iran from inside the White House.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "temporal_scope": "Conditional prediction about a Trump-Haley administration.", "topic_tags": [ "nikki-haley", "iran", "war", "white-house" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1557.117, "end": 1638.747, "time_label": "25:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Second thing is that in 2019, she got a job at Boeing. Boeing is a weapons manufacturer. They make airplanes, but they mainly make bombs and missiles, okay? So they love war. She sat on the board of Boeing, an extremely..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1638.747, "end": 1713.468, "time_label": "27:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "She'll be the one in the White House pushing for war in Iran. Escalating tension in Iran, okay? So Nikki Haley, okay, what's also interesting is, okay, in January 2019, basically the primary is over. Trump has won every..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1713.468, "end": 1801.23, "time_label": "28:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So she comes across as an extremely popular exception figure, okay? So this doesn't make sense, okay? So the conclusion is that given the way, the situation in the United States, it seems very likely Trump will win in 2..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that donors kept Haley visible in the Republican primary, including by helping her raise more money than Trump and remain a vote-getter after dropping out, to position her as Trump's vice president.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "temporal_scope": "Diagnosis of 2024 Republican primary donor strategy.", "topic_tags": [ "nikki-haley", "donors", "republican-primary", "vp-positioning" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1638.747, "end": 1713.468, "time_label": "27:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "She'll be the one in the White House pushing for war in Iran. Escalating tension in Iran, okay? So Nikki Haley, okay, what's also interesting is, okay, in January 2019, basically the primary is over. Trump has won every..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1713.468, "end": 1801.23, "time_label": "28:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So she comes across as an extremely popular exception figure, okay? So this doesn't make sense, okay? So the conclusion is that given the way, the situation in the United States, it seems very likely Trump will win in 2..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang concludes that Trump is likely to win because Biden's coalition will not hold under inflation, illegal immigration, Gaza, and Ukraine, and that Haley would seal the victory by turning suburbs strongly toward Trump.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking 2024 election prediction made on 2024-05-17.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "biden-coalition", "suburban-voters", "nikki-haley", "2024-election" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1713.468, "end": 1801.23, "time_label": "28:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So she comes across as an extremely popular exception figure, okay? So this doesn't make sense, okay? So the conclusion is that given the way, the situation in the United States, it seems very likely Trump will win in 2..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang answers Jack by saying Trump and Haley are pretending to be bitter enemies because politics is theater and the staged conflict makes reconciliation more dramatic.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretive model of Trump-Haley public conflict in May 2024.", "topic_tags": [ "politics-is-theater", "trump", "nikki-haley", "reconciliation" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1818.63, "end": 1898.4, "time_label": "30:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay. So Jack asked a great question, okay? He's like... He's like, what if Haley holds a grudge and says no, right? And quite honestly, she has been asked in the past, are you willing to serve as Trump's vice president..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Trump and Haley have historically had a good rapport, including her service as UN ambassador and prior consideration as Trump's running mate, so personal hostility should not block a VP deal.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective account of Trump-Haley relations through May 2024.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "nikki-haley", "rapport", "vp-pick" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1898.44, "end": 1969.907, "time_label": "31:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So from 2016 to 2018, she was UN ambassador for Trump. And everyone says that the two got along really well. In fact, Trump was considering having her be his VP, running mate, in 2016. In 2020, he was thinking of droppi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang defines successful politicians as opportunists with no ideas or principles, motivated first by political power.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "temporal_scope": "General political model stated on 2024-05-17.", "topic_tags": [ "politicians", "opportunism", "power" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1898.44, "end": 1969.907, "time_label": "31:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So from 2016 to 2018, she was UN ambassador for Trump. And everyone says that the two got along really well. In fact, Trump was considering having her be his VP, running mate, in 2016. In 2020, he was thinking of droppi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1969.907, "end": 2059.1, "time_label": "32:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay? So that's the thing you need to know about politicians, okay? All they care about is political power. They will do anything to achieve political power. They will sell their own mother. Okay?..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues Haley would accept the vice presidency because it puts her one step away from the presidency and positions her to run as the Republican nominee four years later.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025" ], "temporal_scope": "Conditional prediction about Haley's incentives in 2024.", "topic_tags": [ "nikki-haley", "vice-president", "political-power", "presidency" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1898.44, "end": 1969.907, "time_label": "31:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So from 2016 to 2018, she was UN ambassador for Trump. And everyone says that the two got along really well. In fact, Trump was considering having her be his VP, running mate, in 2016. In 2020, he was thinking of droppi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Biden appeared hopeless in early 2020 because he lacked charisma, ideas, and campaign energy, but remained in the race without a clear strategic explanation.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective account of Biden's 2020 primary and general-election position.", "topic_tags": [ "biden", "2020-election", "charisma", "strategy" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 2059.3, "end": 2120.048, "time_label": "34:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? And the answer is this. If you look at 2020, everyone thought that Biden could not get the nomination. Okay? Why? Because he lacks charisma. Nobody really likes him. Okay? So when Biden goes to speak, there's no o..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says he would have expected Trump to beat Biden in 2020 because Trump could draw huge rallies and dominate debates while Biden put audiences to sleep.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective self-account of Jiang's likely May-June 2020 expectation.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "biden", "rallies", "debates", "2020-election" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 2059.3, "end": 2120.048, "time_label": "34:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? And the answer is this. If you look at 2020, everyone thought that Biden could not get the nomination. Okay? Why? Because he lacks charisma. Nobody really likes him. Okay? So when Biden goes to speak, there's no o..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2120.048, "end": 2189.99, "time_label": "35:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Because Trump's going to go out there and give speeches to 100,000 people. And they're going to love him. And they're going to go and vote for him. Okay? Biden gives a speech. Everyone falls asleep. And under the debate..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that George Floyd protests and the pandemic unexpectedly allowed Biden to win: voters were galvanized against Trump, Trump could not campaign normally, and Biden could stay in his basement.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective model of Biden's 2020 win.", "topic_tags": [ "george-floyd", "pandemic", "biden", "trump", "2020-election" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2120.048, "end": 2189.99, "time_label": "35:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Because Trump's going to go out there and give speeches to 100,000 people. And they're going to love him. And they're going to go and vote for him. Okay? Biden gives a speech. Everyone falls asleep. And under the debate..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2190.11, "end": 2211.73, "time_label": "36:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "hey, if I just sit in my basement all day and make no mistakes, my surrogates, the Democrats, they're going to be like, what? They'll fire up the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, they'll go..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Biden learned the wrong lesson from 2020: stay quiet, rely on Democratic surrogates to mobilize the base, and run on being not Trump.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "temporal_scope": "Diagnosis of Biden's 2024 strategy based on Jiang's 2020 model.", "topic_tags": [ "biden", "not-trump", "campaign-strategy", "democratic-surrogates" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2120.048, "end": 2189.99, "time_label": "35:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Because Trump's going to go out there and give speeches to 100,000 people. And they're going to love him. And they're going to go and vote for him. Okay? Biden gives a speech. Everyone falls asleep. And under the debate..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2190.11, "end": 2211.73, "time_label": "36:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "hey, if I just sit in my basement all day and make no mistakes, my surrogates, the Democrats, they're going to be like, what? They'll fire up the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, they'll go..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that 2024 is different because voters have now seen both Trump and Biden in office and may stay home if they think both are bad.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "temporal_scope": "2024 turnout diagnosis.", "topic_tags": [ "biden", "trump", "turnout", "2024-election" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2217.3, "end": 2291.71, "time_label": "36:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "The problem with this idea is, okay, in 2020, the American people had four years of Trump, and they know he sucks. The problem now is the American people have seen four years of Biden, and Biden sucks as well, okay? And..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts that the Republican coalition of rural voters, conservatives, Christians, and white voters will feel more strongly about Trump than the Democratic coalition feels about Biden.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "temporal_scope": "2024 turnout prediction.", "topic_tags": [ "republican-coalition", "democratic-coalition", "turnout", "trump", "biden" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2217.3, "end": 2291.71, "time_label": "36:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "The problem with this idea is, okay, in 2020, the American people had four years of Trump, and they know he sucks. The problem now is the American people have seen four years of Biden, and Biden sucks as well, okay? And..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Biden has no strategy going forward because he won in 2020 without one and is too old to change who he is.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "temporal_scope": "2024 campaign diagnosis made on 2024-05-17.", "topic_tags": [ "biden", "strategy", "age", "2024-election" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2217.3, "end": 2291.71, "time_label": "36:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "The problem with this idea is, okay, in 2020, the American people had four years of Trump, and they know he sucks. The problem now is the American people have seen four years of Biden, and Biden sucks as well, okay? And..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2291.97, "end": 2371.6, "time_label": "38:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So why can't the Senate? Why can't something happen this year, right? And unfortunately, because Biden is so old, he's 81, he doesn't have the energy to change the way he is, you understand? It's much easier for him to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang introduces the methodological reason for the exercise: build an analytical model of how the world works, make predictions, and test them against reality.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "temporal_scope": "General method statement closing the lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "analytical-model", "prediction", "testing", "method" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2291.97, "end": 2371.6, "time_label": "38:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So why can't the Senate? Why can't something happen this year, right? And unfortunately, because Biden is so old, he's 81, he doesn't have the energy to change the way he is, you understand? It's much easier for him to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang acknowledges that Trump might pick someone other than Haley in August, naming J.D. Vance as a plausible loyal-to-Trump alternative.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking uncertainty about the 2024 Republican VP pick.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "nikki-haley", "jd-vance", "vp-pick" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2372.54, "end": 2427.3, "time_label": "39:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? So you know what? It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, okay? Possibly someone named J.D. Vance, okay? The only thing you need to know about J.D. Vance is he's very loyal to Trump. It's possi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says he still bets that Trump will pick Haley, even while admitting there is also a good chance of a J.D. Vance pick or another choice.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "temporal_scope": "Dated prediction and uncertainty stated on 2024-05-17.", "topic_tags": [ "nikki-haley", "jd-vance", "prediction", "uncertainty" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2372.54, "end": 2427.3, "time_label": "39:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? So you know what? It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, okay? Possibly someone named J.D. Vance, okay? The only thing you need to know about J.D. Vance is he's very loyal to Trump. It's possi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says that if Trump does not pick Haley or loses in November, the proper response is to return to the analysis and change the model.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "temporal_scope": "Method statement tied to future 2024 outcomes.", "topic_tags": [ "prediction", "model-revision", "critical-thinking", "2024-election" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2372.54, "end": 2427.3, "time_label": "39:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? So you know what? It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, okay? Possibly someone named J.D. Vance, okay? The only thing you need to know about J.D. Vance is he's very loyal to Trump. It's possi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2427.3, "end": 2486.84, "time_label": "40:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the world. By building analytical models that we can then test against reality and then b..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang defines critical thinking as building analytical models, testing them against reality, and refining them based on what reality shows.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "temporal_scope": "General method statement.", "topic_tags": [ "critical-thinking", "analytical-model", "testing", "refinement" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2427.3, "end": 2486.84, "time_label": "40:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the world. By building analytical models that we can then test against reality and then b..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says that if Haley becomes vice president, she will likely agitate for war against Iran and Trump will go along, making a future Iran-war analysis necessary.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "temporal_scope": "Conditional future prediction about a Trump-Haley administration.", "topic_tags": [ "nikki-haley", "iran", "war", "trump" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2427.3, "end": 2486.84, "time_label": "40:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the world. By building analytical models that we can then test against reality and then b..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "signature_moments": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "moment": "Obama-era loyalty becomes an exhausted debt rather than a renewable reason to vote for Biden.", "source_phrase": "the debt is paid off", "why_it_matters": "This turns coalition memory into a time-limited obligation, a key move in Jiang's explanation of why 2020 support may not repeat.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 158.55, "end": 230.208, "time_label": "2:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "But this year the debt is paid off, right? So they won't feel so loyal to Biden, okay? Also in 2020, there's something called a George Floyd protest. So what happened was that in May 2020, a black man in Minneapolis, Ge..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "moment": "The suburbs become the battlefield between urban Democrats and rural Republicans.", "source_phrase": "the suburbs are where the battleground is", "why_it_matters": "The whole Haley prediction depends on treating suburban voters as the electoral hinge.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 443.24, "end": 532.2, "time_label": "7:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Women, okay? So 54 % of women voted for Biden. 44 % voted for Trump. Okay? And again, because Trump is seen as this hateful figure, we expect that women will still consistently vote Democratic this year, okay? And also..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 532.94, "end": 617.255, "time_label": "8:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "That's a flip of 2 million voters, okay? So in elections, usually it's a suburban vote that determines the election, because the swing voters. So for Trump to win this year, he needs to win the suburban vote. He won tha..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "moment": "A media story, not only policy, captures suburban imagination and changes the political map.", "source_phrase": "this idea caught the imagination of the suburbs", "why_it_matters": "Jiang's model treats narrative perception as an electoral force that can later be copied by Trump.", "tone": "causal-chain", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 532.94, "end": 617.255, "time_label": "8:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "That's a flip of 2 million voters, okay? So in elections, usually it's a suburban vote that determines the election, because the swing voters. So for Trump to win this year, he needs to win the suburban vote. He won tha..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "moment": "Biden's Harris pick becomes an anti-Trump character machine.", "source_phrase": "This is anti-Trump, right? This is the anti-Trump.", "why_it_matters": "The lecture's VP theory turns on personality optics, not just demographic arithmetic.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 979.68, "end": 1071.932, "time_label": "16:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Anyone? Yes, okay, exactly, okay? Doesn't hold grudges, what else? What else? What else? Doesn't hold grudges. He's a very forgiving man. What else? Good, yes, he listens, right? He's a listener. He's a team player, oka..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0015" ], "moment": "Trump can win by copying the Biden-Harris redemption template.", "source_phrase": "he can copy this exact same thing", "why_it_matters": "This is the hinge from explaining 2020 to predicting the 2024 Trump-Haley move.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1071.932, "end": 1165.14, "time_label": "17:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? And this is why Biden was able to win in 2020. So this year, what can Trump do to win the suburbs? What can he do? Yeah, he can copy this exact same thing, okay? And it turns out he can do this, ok..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "moment": "The insult that seems to rule Haley out is part of what would make the reconciliation powerful.", "source_phrase": "Nikki Haley is a bird brain", "why_it_matters": "The nastier the feud looks, the stronger Jiang thinks the forgiveness narrative becomes if Trump reverses.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1166.16, "end": 1241.02, "time_label": "19:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Guess who just loved her? Who voted for her in droves? Guess what demographic group? Anyone? Suburban woman, okay, do you understand? College educated suburban woman, okay? So in other words, if Trump brings her onto th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "moment": "A Haley pick turns Trump from a five-year-old child into a changed man in the eyes of suburban voters.", "source_phrase": "he is a changed man", "why_it_matters": "This is the emotional mechanism Jiang thinks can move the suburbs back to Trump.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1314.66, "end": 1393.35, "time_label": "21:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "How would people feel about him? Well, what would the suburbs say? think about Trump how do you feel if you saw this he's a changed man right Trump has grown remember like the narrative about Trump is he is a five -year..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021" ], "moment": "Haley is recast from suburban-moderation asset to Iran-war agent.", "source_phrase": "her main responsibility will be to agitate for war against Iran", "why_it_matters": "The lecture's second half reverses the VP pick from electoral optics into a foreign-policy warning.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1557.117, "end": 1638.747, "time_label": "25:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Second thing is that in 2019, she got a job at Boeing. Boeing is a weapons manufacturer. They make airplanes, but they mainly make bombs and missiles, okay? So they love war. She sat on the board of Boeing, an extremely..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "moment": "The feud is not an obstacle; it is the stage prop that makes reconciliation dramatic.", "source_phrase": "Politics is theater", "why_it_matters": "This compresses Jiang's model of visible political conflict as performed narrative engineering.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1818.63, "end": 1898.4, "time_label": "30:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay. So Jack asked a great question, okay? He's like... He's like, what if Haley holds a grudge and says no, right? And quite honestly, she has been asked in the past, are you willing to serve as Trump's vice president..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "moment": "The VP slot becomes evidence that Haley is on an anti-Iran payroll.", "source_phrase": "on the payroll of anti-Iranian forces", "why_it_matters": "It preserves the sharpest causal accusation in Jiang's account of what the pick would mean.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1713.468, "end": 1801.23, "time_label": "28:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So she comes across as an extremely popular exception figure, okay? So this doesn't make sense, okay? So the conclusion is that given the way, the situation in the United States, it seems very likely Trump will win in 2..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "moment": "Politicians, rich people, and celebrities are each reduced to the appetite that governs them.", "source_phrase": "They will sell their own mother.", "why_it_matters": "This is Jiang's stark explanation for why Haley would accept a deal that looks emotionally implausible.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1969.907, "end": 2059.1, "time_label": "32:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay? So that's the thing you need to know about politicians, okay? All they care about is political power. They will do anything to achieve political power. They will sell their own mother. Okay?..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "moment": "Biden wins by doing nothing because crisis takes over the campaign.", "source_phrase": "Biden could just sit in his basement and do nothing.", "why_it_matters": "It captures Jiang's model of accidental victory and why Biden misread 2020.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2120.048, "end": 2189.99, "time_label": "35:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Because Trump's going to go out there and give speeches to 100,000 people. And they're going to love him. And they're going to go and vote for him. Okay? Biden gives a speech. Everyone falls asleep. And under the debate..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "moment": "The election becomes a low-enthusiasm comparison of failures rather than a positive choice.", "source_phrase": "who sucks more, Biden or Trump", "why_it_matters": "This line compresses Jiang's turnout model for 2024.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2217.3, "end": 2291.71, "time_label": "36:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "The problem with this idea is, okay, in 2020, the American people had four years of Trump, and they know he sucks. The problem now is the American people have seen four years of Biden, and Biden sucks as well, okay? And..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "moment": "Biden's strategy becomes a prayer that negation alone can win again.", "source_phrase": "pray that I'm not Trump will deliver another election", "why_it_matters": "It preserves Jiang's diagnosis that Biden is relying on a stale anti-Trump identity.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2291.97, "end": 2371.6, "time_label": "38:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So why can't the Senate? Why can't something happen this year, right? And unfortunately, because Biden is so old, he's 81, he doesn't have the energy to change the way he is, you understand? It's much easier for him to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "moment": "Wrong predictions are not embarrassments; they are what force the model to improve.", "source_phrase": "I go back to this analysis and I make changes to this analysis", "why_it_matters": "This rescues the episode from simple punditry by making prediction a method of learning.", "tone": "method", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2372.54, "end": 2427.3, "time_label": "39:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? So you know what? It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, okay? Possibly someone named J.D. Vance, okay? The only thing you need to know about J.D. Vance is he's very loyal to Trump. It's possi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2427.3, "end": 2486.84, "time_label": "40:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the world. By building analytical models that we can then test against reality and then b..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "moment": "Critical thinking is a model tested by reality and refined by reality.", "source_phrase": "building analytical models that we can then test against reality", "why_it_matters": "It is the lecture's explicit methodological thesis and should survive in the public read.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2427.3, "end": 2486.84, "time_label": "40:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the world. By building analytical models that we can then test against reality and then b..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "moment": "The Haley VP prediction points forward to an Iran-war curriculum.", "source_phrase": "if Nikki Haley becomes the vice president, it is very likely she will agitate for war against Iran", "why_it_matters": "This ties the electoral prediction to Jiang's broader geopolitical forecast.", "tone": "causal-chain", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2427.3, "end": 2486.84, "time_label": "40:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the world. By building analytical models that we can then test against reality and then b..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "predictions": [ { "claim": "Jiang predicts that Trump will win the November 2024 election and pick Nikki Haley as his vice president.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking prediction made on 2024-05-17 about November 2024.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "nikki-haley", "2024-election", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.82, "end": 88.92, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay, so let's begin class. And today we are discussing whether or not Trump will win in November. And I'm making the prediction that he will win in November and that he will pick Nikki Haley as his vice president. Okay..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts that Gaza protests will cause some young voters to sit out rather than vote for Biden, even if they will not vote for Trump.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking turnout prediction for the 2024 election, made during campus Gaza protests.", "topic_tags": [ "gaza", "young-voters", "biden", "turnout" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 301.15, "end": 379.92, "time_label": "5:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So many Americans see this as just bad leadership, okay? So that's black people. And recent polls show that actually Biden's lead with black people is not as much as it was in 2020, okay? So this lead is going down. You..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that Trump can win the suburbs in 2024 by copying Biden's VP-redemption narrative with Nikki Haley.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0015" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking strategy claim for the 2024 election.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "nikki-haley", "suburban-voters", "vp-pick" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1071.932, "end": 1165.14, "time_label": "17:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? And this is why Biden was able to win in 2020. So this year, what can Trump do to win the suburbs? What can he do? Yeah, he can copy this exact same thing, okay? And it turns out he can do this, ok..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that if Trump picks Haley after saying he would not consider her, suburban voters and media can read him as changed, grown, forgiving, willing to listen, and empathetic.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "temporal_scope": "Conditional 2024 election narrative prediction.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "nikki-haley", "changed-man-narrative", "suburban-voters" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1241.02, "end": 1314, "time_label": "20:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "And Trump likes loyalty. Also, hey guys, Trump holds grudges, right? And he doesn't listen, and he's not a team player, and he lacks empathy. So there's no way he would pick Nikki Haley. And in fact, this past week, the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1314.66, "end": 1393.35, "time_label": "21:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "How would people feel about him? Well, what would the suburbs say? think about Trump how do you feel if you saw this he's a changed man right Trump has grown remember like the narrative about Trump is he is a five -year..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts that if Trump picks Haley in August, he will win, while also saying the pick is Trump's best strategic move rather than a certainty.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking prediction about August and November 2024.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "nikki-haley", "vp-pick", "2024-election" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1393.35, "end": 1457.62, "time_label": "23:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "he wins so if he picks Nikki Haley in August he will win okay I'm not completely sure that it will pick Nikki Haley I think that this is his best strategic move okay but Trump is not really predictable all right and who..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts that if Haley becomes vice president, her main responsibility will be to agitate for war against Iran from inside the White House.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "temporal_scope": "Conditional prediction about a Trump-Haley administration.", "topic_tags": [ "nikki-haley", "iran", "war", "white-house" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1557.117, "end": 1638.747, "time_label": "25:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Second thing is that in 2019, she got a job at Boeing. Boeing is a weapons manufacturer. They make airplanes, but they mainly make bombs and missiles, okay? So they love war. She sat on the board of Boeing, an extremely..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1638.747, "end": 1713.468, "time_label": "27:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "She'll be the one in the White House pushing for war in Iran. Escalating tension in Iran, okay? So Nikki Haley, okay, what's also interesting is, okay, in January 2019, basically the primary is over. Trump has won every..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1713.468, "end": 1801.23, "time_label": "28:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So she comes across as an extremely popular exception figure, okay? So this doesn't make sense, okay? So the conclusion is that given the way, the situation in the United States, it seems very likely Trump will win in 2..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang concludes that Trump is likely to win because Biden's coalition will not hold under inflation, illegal immigration, Gaza, and Ukraine, and that Haley would seal the victory by turning suburbs strongly toward Trump.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking 2024 election prediction made on 2024-05-17.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "biden-coalition", "suburban-voters", "nikki-haley", "2024-election" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1713.468, "end": 1801.23, "time_label": "28:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So she comes across as an extremely popular exception figure, okay? So this doesn't make sense, okay? So the conclusion is that given the way, the situation in the United States, it seems very likely Trump will win in 2..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues Haley would accept the vice presidency because it puts her one step away from the presidency and positions her to run as the Republican nominee four years later.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025" ], "temporal_scope": "Conditional prediction about Haley's incentives in 2024.", "topic_tags": [ "nikki-haley", "vice-president", "political-power", "presidency" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1898.44, "end": 1969.907, "time_label": "31:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So from 2016 to 2018, she was UN ambassador for Trump. And everyone says that the two got along really well. In fact, Trump was considering having her be his VP, running mate, in 2016. In 2020, he was thinking of droppi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts that the Republican coalition of rural voters, conservatives, Christians, and white voters will feel more strongly about Trump than the Democratic coalition feels about Biden.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "temporal_scope": "2024 turnout prediction.", "topic_tags": [ "republican-coalition", "democratic-coalition", "turnout", "trump", "biden" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2217.3, "end": 2291.71, "time_label": "36:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "The problem with this idea is, okay, in 2020, the American people had four years of Trump, and they know he sucks. The problem now is the American people have seen four years of Biden, and Biden sucks as well, okay? And..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang acknowledges that Trump might pick someone other than Haley in August, naming J.D. Vance as a plausible loyal-to-Trump alternative.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking uncertainty about the 2024 Republican VP pick.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "nikki-haley", "jd-vance", "vp-pick" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2372.54, "end": 2427.3, "time_label": "39:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? So you know what? It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, okay? Possibly someone named J.D. Vance, okay? The only thing you need to know about J.D. Vance is he's very loyal to Trump. It's possi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says he still bets that Trump will pick Haley, even while admitting there is also a good chance of a J.D. Vance pick or another choice.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "temporal_scope": "Dated prediction and uncertainty stated on 2024-05-17.", "topic_tags": [ "nikki-haley", "jd-vance", "prediction", "uncertainty" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2372.54, "end": 2427.3, "time_label": "39:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? So you know what? It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, okay? Possibly someone named J.D. Vance, okay? The only thing you need to know about J.D. Vance is he's very loyal to Trump. It's possi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says that if Haley becomes vice president, she will likely agitate for war against Iran and Trump will go along, making a future Iran-war analysis necessary.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "temporal_scope": "Conditional future prediction about a Trump-Haley administration.", "topic_tags": [ "nikki-haley", "iran", "war", "trump" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2427.3, "end": 2486.84, "time_label": "40:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the world. By building analytical models that we can then test against reality and then b..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "models": [ { "claim": "Jiang expects women to keep voting Democratic because of Trump's image and abortion rights, while identifying suburban voters as the decisive battleground Trump must win back.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction and electoral model for the 2024 election.", "topic_tags": [ "women-voters", "abortion", "suburban-voters", "swing-voters" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 443.24, "end": 532.2, "time_label": "7:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Women, okay? So 54 % of women voted for Biden. 44 % voted for Trump. Okay? And again, because Trump is seen as this hateful figure, we expect that women will still consistently vote Democratic this year, okay? And also..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 532.94, "end": 617.255, "time_label": "8:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "That's a flip of 2 million voters, okay? So in elections, usually it's a suburban vote that determines the election, because the swing voters. So for Trump to win this year, he needs to win the suburban vote. He won tha..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that suburban voters tend to prefer status quo, conservative, unifying leadership, which made Biden's steady establishment image attractive in 2020.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0009" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective diagnosis of the 2020 suburban vote.", "topic_tags": [ "suburban-voters", "status-quo", "biden", "2020-election" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 617.255, "end": 682.4, "time_label": "10:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Because if you live in the suburbs, you tend to be middle class, you tend to be pretty wealthy and more educated. So you like the status quo. You want a leader who's conservative and who's a unifier. And throughout the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that Harris attacking Biden in the 2019 debate and then becoming his running mate created a redemption story that made Biden look forgiving, listening, team-oriented, and empathetic.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "temporal_scope": "Model of the 2020 VP-pick narrative.", "topic_tags": [ "redemption-story", "kamala-harris", "biden", "suburban-women" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 831.928, "end": 916.47, "time_label": "13:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "They want safety, they want security, they just have kids. And the third reason why they like Kamala Harris is because of the redemption story. So, in 2019, there's a Democratic primary, okay? This is when the Democrats..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 916.51, "end": 979.6, "time_label": "15:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "for 50 years, and some of your policies I don't support. For example, you do not support the integration of black and white students together. Well, you know what, Joe? I'm a black student. I was a black little girl, gr..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 979.68, "end": 1071.932, "time_label": "16:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Anyone? Yes, okay, exactly, okay? Doesn't hold grudges, what else? What else? What else? Doesn't hold grudges. He's a very forgiving man. What else? Good, yes, he listens, right? He's a listener. He's a team player, oka..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang describes 'doesn't hold grudges,' 'listens,' 'team player,' and 'empathy' as the anti-Trump traits that helped move suburban women toward Biden.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "temporal_scope": "Electoral narrative model for 2020 and template for 2024.", "topic_tags": [ "anti-trump", "empathy", "suburban-women", "biden" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 979.68, "end": 1071.932, "time_label": "16:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Anyone? Yes, okay, exactly, okay? Doesn't hold grudges, what else? What else? What else? Doesn't hold grudges. He's a very forgiving man. What else? Good, yes, he listens, right? He's a listener. He's a team player, oka..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Trump's vice-presidential choice will provide a clue to how he would govern as president.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "temporal_scope": "General political inference model applied to the 2024 election.", "topic_tags": [ "vp-pick", "governance", "trump" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1393.35, "end": 1457.62, "time_label": "23:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "he wins so if he picks Nikki Haley in August he will win okay I'm not completely sure that it will pick Nikki Haley I think that this is his best strategic move okay but Trump is not really predictable all right and who..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang answers Jack by saying Trump and Haley are pretending to be bitter enemies because politics is theater and the staged conflict makes reconciliation more dramatic.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretive model of Trump-Haley public conflict in May 2024.", "topic_tags": [ "politics-is-theater", "trump", "nikki-haley", "reconciliation" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1818.63, "end": 1898.4, "time_label": "30:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay. So Jack asked a great question, okay? He's like... He's like, what if Haley holds a grudge and says no, right? And quite honestly, she has been asked in the past, are you willing to serve as Trump's vice president..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that George Floyd protests and the pandemic unexpectedly allowed Biden to win: voters were galvanized against Trump, Trump could not campaign normally, and Biden could stay in his basement.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective model of Biden's 2020 win.", "topic_tags": [ "george-floyd", "pandemic", "biden", "trump", "2020-election" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2120.048, "end": 2189.99, "time_label": "35:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Because Trump's going to go out there and give speeches to 100,000 people. And they're going to love him. And they're going to go and vote for him. Okay? Biden gives a speech. Everyone falls asleep. And under the debate..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2190.11, "end": 2211.73, "time_label": "36:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "hey, if I just sit in my basement all day and make no mistakes, my surrogates, the Democrats, they're going to be like, what? They'll fire up the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, they'll go..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang introduces the methodological reason for the exercise: build an analytical model of how the world works, make predictions, and test them against reality.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "temporal_scope": "General method statement closing the lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "analytical-model", "prediction", "testing", "method" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2291.97, "end": 2371.6, "time_label": "38:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So why can't the Senate? Why can't something happen this year, right? And unfortunately, because Biden is so old, he's 81, he doesn't have the energy to change the way he is, you understand? It's much easier for him to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says that if Trump does not pick Haley or loses in November, the proper response is to return to the analysis and change the model.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "temporal_scope": "Method statement tied to future 2024 outcomes.", "topic_tags": [ "prediction", "model-revision", "critical-thinking", "2024-election" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2372.54, "end": 2427.3, "time_label": "39:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? So you know what? It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, okay? Possibly someone named J.D. Vance, okay? The only thing you need to know about J.D. Vance is he's very loyal to Trump. It's possi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2427.3, "end": 2486.84, "time_label": "40:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the world. By building analytical models that we can then test against reality and then b..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "diagnoses": [ { "claim": "Jiang argues that older Black voters supported Biden in 2020 partly from loyalty to Obama's vice president, but that by 2024 the debt has been paid and Biden must answer what he has done for them.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "temporal_scope": "Diagnosis of 2020 coalition mechanics and 2024 coalition risk.", "topic_tags": [ "black-voters", "biden", "obama", "coalition" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 89.04, "end": 157.77, "time_label": "1:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Assuming that if 65,000 people in key battleground states flip their votes, then Trump would have won. Okay, so the margin of victory was very, very close, as is usually the case in highly contested American elections...." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 158.55, "end": 230.208, "time_label": "2:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "But this year the debt is paid off, right? So they won't feel so loyal to Biden, okay? Also in 2020, there's something called a George Floyd protest. So what happened was that in May 2020, a black man in Minneapolis, Ge..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the George Floyd protests made Black voters and young voters view Trump as hostile or racist in 2020, but that this anti-Trump mobilization may not transfer to Biden in 2024.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "temporal_scope": "Comparison between 2020 turnout dynamics and expected 2024 turnout.", "topic_tags": [ "george-floyd", "young-voters", "black-voters", "anti-trump" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 158.55, "end": 230.208, "time_label": "2:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "But this year the debt is paid off, right? So they won't feel so loyal to Biden, okay? Also in 2020, there's something called a George Floyd protest. So what happened was that in May 2020, a black man in Minneapolis, Ge..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 301.15, "end": 379.92, "time_label": "5:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So many Americans see this as just bad leadership, okay? So that's black people. And recent polls show that actually Biden's lead with black people is not as much as it was in 2020, okay? So this lead is going down. You..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that inflation, illegal immigration, and Ukraine aid damage Biden among Black and poorer voters by lowering living standards and making Biden look like a bad leader.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "temporal_scope": "Diagnosis of U.S. political conditions in May 2024.", "topic_tags": [ "inflation", "immigration", "ukraine", "black-voters", "biden" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 230.208, "end": 300.65, "time_label": "3:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "And in fact, you can make the argument that Biden has really hurt the standard of living of black people, why? Because inflation has gone up, okay? When inflation goes up, it usually hurts poor people the most, okay? Th..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 301.15, "end": 379.92, "time_label": "5:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So many Americans see this as just bad leadership, okay? So that's black people. And recent polls show that actually Biden's lead with black people is not as much as it was in 2020, okay? So this lead is going down. You..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says college-educated voters remain the core Democratic base, but that Ukraine and Gaza make them less enthusiastic and more likely to vote against Trump than for Biden.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "temporal_scope": "Diagnosis of 2024 college-educated voting behavior.", "topic_tags": [ "college-educated-voters", "democratic-base", "ukraine", "gaza" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 380.88, "end": 442.08, "time_label": "6:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Now let's look at the college educated. Okay, so 70 % of people with college degrees voted for Biden. These are what we call the, the coastal elite, right? The coastal professional managerial elite. And they usually ove..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that the mainstream media narrative during Trump's presidency first used Russiagate and then the divisive-figure frame to push suburbs away from Trump.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective diagnosis of Trump-era media narratives and the 2020 suburban vote.", "topic_tags": [ "media-narrative", "russiagate", "suburban-voters", "trump" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 532.94, "end": 617.255, "time_label": "8:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "That's a flip of 2 million voters, okay? So in elections, usually it's a suburban vote that determines the election, because the swing voters. So for Trump to win this year, he needs to win the suburban vote. He won tha..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the pandemic damaged Trump in the suburbs because families with children and older voters saw his handling as incompetent.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective diagnosis of 2020 pandemic politics.", "topic_tags": [ "pandemic", "trump", "suburban-voters" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 683.16, "end": 753.29, "time_label": "11:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Second was the pandemic. So as you know, COVID hit the United States, and the suburbs were extremely freaked out about this because they tend to have children who go to school, they tend to be older, and we see that as..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang identifies Kamala Harris as a key reason Biden won suburbs: she appeared educated, articulate, smart, conservative, establishment, and tough on crime.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective diagnosis of the 2020 Biden-Harris ticket.", "topic_tags": [ "kamala-harris", "suburban-voters", "establishment", "tough-on-crime" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 683.16, "end": 753.29, "time_label": "11:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Second was the pandemic. So as you know, COVID hit the United States, and the suburbs were extremely freaked out about this because they tend to have children who go to school, they tend to be older, and we see that as..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 753.91, "end": 831.928, "time_label": "12:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So her mom raised the two girls by herself. And Kamala Harris is an extremely accomplished person. She went to Stanford. Then she became attorney general of California, then became a US Senator, okay? And there are thre..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Nikki Haley resembles Kamala Harris in the relevant electoral frame because she is South Asian, from an immigrant family, accomplished, and acceptable to suburban voters.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "temporal_scope": "Comparison made on 2024-05-17.", "topic_tags": [ "nikki-haley", "kamala-harris", "suburban-voters", "identity" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1071.932, "end": 1165.14, "time_label": "17:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? And this is why Biden was able to win in 2020. So this year, what can Trump do to win the suburbs? What can he do? Yeah, he can copy this exact same thing, okay? And it turns out he can do this, ok..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1166.16, "end": 1241.02, "time_label": "19:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Guess who just loved her? Who voted for her in droves? Guess what demographic group? Anyone? Suburban woman, okay, do you understand? College educated suburban woman, okay? So in other words, if Trump brings her onto th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Haley's strongest 2024 primary constituency was college-educated suburban women, making her strategically useful to Trump.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "temporal_scope": "Assessment of Haley's Republican primary appeal in 2024.", "topic_tags": [ "nikki-haley", "college-educated-women", "suburban-women", "republican-primary" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1166.16, "end": 1241.02, "time_label": "19:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Guess who just loved her? Who voted for her in droves? Guess what demographic group? Anyone? Suburban woman, okay, do you understand? College educated suburban woman, okay? So in other words, if Trump brings her onto th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says United Against a Nuclear Iran paid Haley and exists to create conflict between the United States and Iran by targeting people or companies doing business with Iran.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "temporal_scope": "Assessment of UANI and Haley's relationship, stated on 2024-05-17.", "topic_tags": [ "nikki-haley", "united-against-nuclear-iran", "iran", "influence-network" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1457.62, "end": 1557.117, "time_label": "24:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "got her she got this money mainly for an organization called United against a nuclear Iran okay and this organization's primary purpose is to create conflict between the United States and Iran okay they they go against..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang links UANI to Sheldon Adelson and Benjamin Netanyahu, arguing that pro-Israel donor networks connect Haley to anti-Iranian policy.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "temporal_scope": "Influence-network diagnosis stated on 2024-05-17.", "topic_tags": [ "sheldon-adelson", "netanyahu", "israel", "iran", "nikki-haley" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1457.62, "end": 1557.117, "time_label": "24:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "got her she got this money mainly for an organization called United against a nuclear Iran okay and this organization's primary purpose is to create conflict between the United States and Iran okay they they go against..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Haley's Boeing board position and speeches to Christians United for Israel show she is embedded in constituencies that favor Middle East conflict.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021" ], "temporal_scope": "Assessment of Haley's institutional ties before the 2024 election.", "topic_tags": [ "nikki-haley", "boeing", "christians-united-for-israel", "middle-east-war" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1557.117, "end": 1638.747, "time_label": "25:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Second thing is that in 2019, she got a job at Boeing. Boeing is a weapons manufacturer. They make airplanes, but they mainly make bombs and missiles, okay? So they love war. She sat on the board of Boeing, an extremely..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that donors kept Haley visible in the Republican primary, including by helping her raise more money than Trump and remain a vote-getter after dropping out, to position her as Trump's vice president.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "temporal_scope": "Diagnosis of 2024 Republican primary donor strategy.", "topic_tags": [ "nikki-haley", "donors", "republican-primary", "vp-positioning" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1638.747, "end": 1713.468, "time_label": "27:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "She'll be the one in the White House pushing for war in Iran. Escalating tension in Iran, okay? So Nikki Haley, okay, what's also interesting is, okay, in January 2019, basically the primary is over. Trump has won every..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1713.468, "end": 1801.23, "time_label": "28:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So she comes across as an extremely popular exception figure, okay? So this doesn't make sense, okay? So the conclusion is that given the way, the situation in the United States, it seems very likely Trump will win in 2..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Biden appeared hopeless in early 2020 because he lacked charisma, ideas, and campaign energy, but remained in the race without a clear strategic explanation.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective account of Biden's 2020 primary and general-election position.", "topic_tags": [ "biden", "2020-election", "charisma", "strategy" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 2059.3, "end": 2120.048, "time_label": "34:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? And the answer is this. If you look at 2020, everyone thought that Biden could not get the nomination. Okay? Why? Because he lacks charisma. Nobody really likes him. Okay? So when Biden goes to speak, there's no o..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says he would have expected Trump to beat Biden in 2020 because Trump could draw huge rallies and dominate debates while Biden put audiences to sleep.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective self-account of Jiang's likely May-June 2020 expectation.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "biden", "rallies", "debates", "2020-election" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 2059.3, "end": 2120.048, "time_label": "34:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? And the answer is this. If you look at 2020, everyone thought that Biden could not get the nomination. Okay? Why? Because he lacks charisma. Nobody really likes him. Okay? So when Biden goes to speak, there's no o..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2120.048, "end": 2189.99, "time_label": "35:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Because Trump's going to go out there and give speeches to 100,000 people. And they're going to love him. And they're going to go and vote for him. Okay? Biden gives a speech. Everyone falls asleep. And under the debate..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Biden learned the wrong lesson from 2020: stay quiet, rely on Democratic surrogates to mobilize the base, and run on being not Trump.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "temporal_scope": "Diagnosis of Biden's 2024 strategy based on Jiang's 2020 model.", "topic_tags": [ "biden", "not-trump", "campaign-strategy", "democratic-surrogates" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2120.048, "end": 2189.99, "time_label": "35:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Because Trump's going to go out there and give speeches to 100,000 people. And they're going to love him. And they're going to go and vote for him. Okay? Biden gives a speech. Everyone falls asleep. And under the debate..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2190.11, "end": 2211.73, "time_label": "36:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "hey, if I just sit in my basement all day and make no mistakes, my surrogates, the Democrats, they're going to be like, what? They'll fire up the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, they'll go..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that 2024 is different because voters have now seen both Trump and Biden in office and may stay home if they think both are bad.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "temporal_scope": "2024 turnout diagnosis.", "topic_tags": [ "biden", "trump", "turnout", "2024-election" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2217.3, "end": 2291.71, "time_label": "36:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "The problem with this idea is, okay, in 2020, the American people had four years of Trump, and they know he sucks. The problem now is the American people have seen four years of Biden, and Biden sucks as well, okay? And..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Biden has no strategy going forward because he won in 2020 without one and is too old to change who he is.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "temporal_scope": "2024 campaign diagnosis made on 2024-05-17.", "topic_tags": [ "biden", "strategy", "age", "2024-election" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2217.3, "end": 2291.71, "time_label": "36:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "The problem with this idea is, okay, in 2020, the American people had four years of Trump, and they know he sucks. The problem now is the American people have seen four years of Biden, and Biden sucks as well, okay? And..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2291.97, "end": 2371.6, "time_label": "38:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So why can't the Senate? Why can't something happen this year, right? And unfortunately, because Biden is so old, he's 81, he doesn't have the energy to change the way he is, you understand? It's much easier for him to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "other_claims": [ { "claim": "Jiang frames Biden's 2020 victory as numerically large in popular votes but structurally narrow because the Electoral College margin could be described as roughly 65,000 key-state votes.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective assessment of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.", "topic_tags": [ "biden", "2020-election", "electoral-college" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.82, "end": 88.92, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay, so let's begin class. And today we are discussing whether or not Trump will win in November. And I'm making the prediction that he will win in November and that he will pick Nikki Haley as his vice president. Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 89.04, "end": 157.77, "time_label": "1:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Assuming that if 65,000 people in key battleground states flip their votes, then Trump would have won. Okay, so the margin of victory was very, very close, as is usually the case in highly contested American elections...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang frames the Trump-Haley primary fight as the apparent obstacle that makes a later VP pick look impossible: Haley called Trump divisive, and Trump called Haley a bird brain and stupid.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "temporal_scope": "Setup for a 2024 reconciliation prediction.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "nikki-haley", "primary-feud", "narrative" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1166.16, "end": 1241.02, "time_label": "19:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Guess who just loved her? Who voted for her in droves? Guess what demographic group? Anyone? Suburban woman, okay, do you understand? College educated suburban woman, okay? So in other words, if Trump brings her onto th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang claims Haley left Washington in 2018 with little money but later had ten million dollars and a five-million-dollar mansion, which he uses to ask who paid her.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "temporal_scope": "Claim about Haley's finances after leaving office, stated on 2024-05-17.", "topic_tags": [ "nikki-haley", "money", "influence" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1393.35, "end": 1457.62, "time_label": "23:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "he wins so if he picks Nikki Haley in August he will win okay I'm not completely sure that it will pick Nikki Haley I think that this is his best strategic move okay but Trump is not really predictable all right and who..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Trump and Haley have historically had a good rapport, including her service as UN ambassador and prior consideration as Trump's running mate, so personal hostility should not block a VP deal.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective account of Trump-Haley relations through May 2024.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "nikki-haley", "rapport", "vp-pick" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1898.44, "end": 1969.907, "time_label": "31:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So from 2016 to 2018, she was UN ambassador for Trump. And everyone says that the two got along really well. In fact, Trump was considering having her be his VP, running mate, in 2016. In 2020, he was thinking of droppi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang defines successful politicians as opportunists with no ideas or principles, motivated first by political power.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "temporal_scope": "General political model stated on 2024-05-17.", "topic_tags": [ "politicians", "opportunism", "power" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1898.44, "end": 1969.907, "time_label": "31:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So from 2016 to 2018, she was UN ambassador for Trump. And everyone says that the two got along really well. In fact, Trump was considering having her be his VP, running mate, in 2016. In 2020, he was thinking of droppi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1969.907, "end": 2059.1, "time_label": "32:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay? So that's the thing you need to know about politicians, okay? All they care about is political power. They will do anything to achieve political power. They will sell their own mother. Okay?..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang defines critical thinking as building analytical models, testing them against reality, and refining them based on what reality shows.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "temporal_scope": "General method statement.", "topic_tags": [ "critical-thinking", "analytical-model", "testing", "refinement" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2427.3, "end": 2486.84, "time_label": "40:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the world. By building analytical models that we can then test against reality and then b..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "glossary_terms": [ { "term": "Analytical model", "usages": [ "A testable account of how the world works, built to generate predictions and then be checked against reality." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2291.97, "end": 2371.6, "time_label": "38:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So why can't the Senate? Why can't something happen this year, right? And unfortunately, because Biden is so old, he's 81, he doesn't have the energy to change the way he is, you understand? It's much easier for him to..." } ] }, { "term": "Anti-Trump traits", "usages": [ "Jiang's cluster of traits opposed to Trump's perceived weaknesses: not holding grudges, listening, being a team player, and showing empathy." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 979.68, "end": 1071.932, "time_label": "16:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Anyone? Yes, okay, exactly, okay? Doesn't hold grudges, what else? What else? What else? Doesn't hold grudges. He's a very forgiving man. What else? Good, yes, he listens, right? He's a listener. He's a team player, oka..." } ] }, { "term": "Basement strategy", "usages": [ "Jiang's shorthand for Biden staying quiet, avoiding mistakes, and letting events and surrogates mobilize anti-Trump voters." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2120.048, "end": 2189.99, "time_label": "35:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Because Trump's going to go out there and give speeches to 100,000 people. And they're going to love him. And they're going to go and vote for him. Okay? Biden gives a speech. Everyone falls asleep. And under the debate..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2190.11, "end": 2211.73, "time_label": "36:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "hey, if I just sit in my basement all day and make no mistakes, my surrogates, the Democrats, they're going to be like, what? They'll fire up the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, they'll go..." } ] }, { "term": "Biden coalition", "usages": [ "A voter coalition made from Black voters, young voters, college-educated voters, women, and suburban voters, each with a different 2020 motivation and 2024 vulnerability." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 89.04, "end": 157.77, "time_label": "1:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Assuming that if 65,000 people in key battleground states flip their votes, then Trump would have won. Okay, so the margin of victory was very, very close, as is usually the case in highly contested American elections...." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 532.94, "end": 617.255, "time_label": "8:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "That's a flip of 2 million voters, okay? So in elections, usually it's a suburban vote that determines the election, because the swing voters. So for Trump to win this year, he needs to win the suburban vote. He won tha..." } ] }, { "term": "Changed-man narrative", "usages": [ "A reconciliation narrative in which Trump picking a former enemy makes him appear mature, forgiving, listening, and empathetic." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1241.02, "end": 1314, "time_label": "20:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "And Trump likes loyalty. Also, hey guys, Trump holds grudges, right? And he doesn't listen, and he's not a team player, and he lacks empathy. So there's no way he would pick Nikki Haley. And in fact, this past week, the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1314.66, "end": 1393.35, "time_label": "21:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "How would people feel about him? Well, what would the suburbs say? think about Trump how do you feel if you saw this he's a changed man right Trump has grown remember like the narrative about Trump is he is a five -year..." } ] }, { "term": "Coastal professional managerial elite", "usages": [ "Jiang's label for college-educated Democratic-leaning voters who remain in Biden's base but may lack enthusiasm." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 380.88, "end": 442.08, "time_label": "6:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Now let's look at the college educated. Okay, so 70 % of people with college degrees voted for Biden. These are what we call the, the coastal elite, right? The coastal professional managerial elite. And they usually ove..." } ] }, { "term": "College-educated suburban women", "usages": [ "The demographic Jiang says loved Nikki Haley and could swing suburbs back to Trump." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1166.16, "end": 1241.02, "time_label": "19:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Guess who just loved her? Who voted for her in droves? Guess what demographic group? Anyone? Suburban woman, okay, do you understand? College educated suburban woman, okay? So in other words, if Trump brings her onto th..." } ] }, { "term": "Dispensation premillennialists", "usages": [ "Jiang's term for evangelical Christians who, in his account, believe Middle East war involving Israel and Iran will bring Jesus back and establish the kingdom of heaven." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1557.117, "end": 1638.747, "time_label": "25:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Second thing is that in 2019, she got a job at Boeing. Boeing is a weapons manufacturer. They make airplanes, but they mainly make bombs and missiles, okay? So they love war. She sat on the board of Boeing, an extremely..." } ] }, { "term": "Electoral College margin", "usages": [ "Used to distinguish popular-vote scale from decisive key-state vote margins." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.82, "end": 88.92, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay, so let's begin class. And today we are discussing whether or not Trump will win in November. And I'm making the prediction that he will win in November and that he will pick Nikki Haley as his vice president. Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 89.04, "end": 157.77, "time_label": "1:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Assuming that if 65,000 people in key battleground states flip their votes, then Trump would have won. Okay, so the margin of victory was very, very close, as is usually the case in highly contested American elections...." } ] }, { "term": "I'm not Trump", "usages": [ "A negative campaign identity that Jiang says Biden learned from 2020 and is overusing in 2024." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2190.11, "end": 2211.73, "time_label": "36:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "hey, if I just sit in my basement all day and make no mistakes, my surrogates, the Democrats, they're going to be like, what? They'll fire up the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, they'll go..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2291.97, "end": 2371.6, "time_label": "38:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So why can't the Senate? Why can't something happen this year, right? And unfortunately, because Biden is so old, he's 81, he doesn't have the energy to change the way he is, you understand? It's much easier for him to..." } ] }, { "term": "J.D. Vance alternative", "usages": [ "Jiang's named alternative VP possibility, characterized chiefly by loyalty to Trump." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2372.54, "end": 2427.3, "time_label": "39:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? So you know what? It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, okay? Possibly someone named J.D. Vance, okay? The only thing you need to know about J.D. Vance is he's very loyal to Trump. It's possi..." } ] }, { "term": "Model refinement", "usages": [ "The method of revising analysis after predictions meet reality." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2372.54, "end": 2427.3, "time_label": "39:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? So you know what? It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, okay? Possibly someone named J.D. Vance, okay? The only thing you need to know about J.D. Vance is he's very loyal to Trump. It's possi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2427.3, "end": 2486.84, "time_label": "40:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the world. By building analytical models that we can then test against reality and then b..." } ] }, { "term": "Political opportunist", "usages": [ "Jiang's model of successful politicians as actors who care primarily about political power rather than ideas or principles." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1898.44, "end": 1969.907, "time_label": "31:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So from 2016 to 2018, she was UN ambassador for Trump. And everyone says that the two got along really well. In fact, Trump was considering having her be his VP, running mate, in 2016. In 2020, he was thinking of droppi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1969.907, "end": 2059.1, "time_label": "32:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay? So that's the thing you need to know about politicians, okay? All they care about is political power. They will do anything to achieve political power. They will sell their own mother. Okay?..." } ] }, { "term": "Politics is theater", "usages": [ "A model in which political rivalry can be performed to make later reconciliation more dramatic and useful." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1818.63, "end": 1898.4, "time_label": "30:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay. So Jack asked a great question, okay? He's like... He's like, what if Haley holds a grudge and says no, right? And quite honestly, she has been asked in the past, are you willing to serve as Trump's vice president..." } ] }, { "term": "Redemption story", "usages": [ "A political reconciliation narrative in which picking a former antagonist makes the candidate look forgiving, mature, and empathetic." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 831.928, "end": 916.47, "time_label": "13:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "They want safety, they want security, they just have kids. And the third reason why they like Kamala Harris is because of the redemption story. So, in 2019, there's a Democratic primary, okay? This is when the Democrats..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 979.68, "end": 1071.932, "time_label": "16:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Anyone? Yes, okay, exactly, okay? Doesn't hold grudges, what else? What else? What else? Doesn't hold grudges. He's a very forgiving man. What else? Good, yes, he listens, right? He's a listener. He's a team player, oka..." } ] }, { "term": "Suburban vote", "usages": [ "The swing-voter zone between urban Democratic and rural Republican blocs, treated as the decisive election terrain." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 443.24, "end": 532.2, "time_label": "7:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Women, okay? So 54 % of women voted for Biden. 44 % voted for Trump. Okay? And again, because Trump is seen as this hateful figure, we expect that women will still consistently vote Democratic this year, okay? And also..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 532.94, "end": 617.255, "time_label": "8:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "That's a flip of 2 million voters, okay? So in elections, usually it's a suburban vote that determines the election, because the swing voters. So for Trump to win this year, he needs to win the suburban vote. He won tha..." } ] }, { "term": "Testing against reality", "usages": [ "Jiang's criterion for whether an analytical model works." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2427.3, "end": 2486.84, "time_label": "40:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the world. By building analytical models that we can then test against reality and then b..." } ] }, { "term": "United Against a Nuclear Iran", "usages": [ "Described by Jiang as an anti-Iranian organization that paid Haley and seeks U.S.-Iran conflict." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1457.62, "end": 1557.117, "time_label": "24:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "got her she got this money mainly for an organization called United against a nuclear Iran okay and this organization's primary purpose is to create conflict between the United States and Iran okay they they go against..." } ] } ], "chronology_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "note": "This packet contains May 2024 predictions about November 2024 turnout and coalition stability; preserve the source date for later prediction review.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": true, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.82, "end": 88.92, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay, so let's begin class. And today we are discussing whether or not Trump will win in November. And I'm making the prediction that he will win in November and that he will pick Nikki Haley as his vice president. Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 301.15, "end": 379.92, "time_label": "5:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So many Americans see this as just bad leadership, okay? So that's black people. And recent polls show that actually Biden's lead with black people is not as much as it was in 2020, okay? So this lead is going down. You..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 532.94, "end": 617.255, "time_label": "8:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "That's a flip of 2 million voters, okay? So in elections, usually it's a suburban vote that determines the election, because the swing voters. So for Trump to win this year, he needs to win the suburban vote. He won tha..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "note": "This packet develops the May 2024 basis for a later Trump-Haley VP prediction; keep it tied to the 2024 Republican primary context.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": true, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1071.932, "end": 1165.14, "time_label": "17:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? And this is why Biden was able to win in 2020. So this year, what can Trump do to win the suburbs? What can he do? Yeah, he can copy this exact same thing, okay? And it turns out he can do this, ok..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1166.16, "end": 1241.02, "time_label": "19:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Guess who just loved her? Who voted for her in droves? Guess what demographic group? Anyone? Suburban woman, okay, do you understand? College educated suburban woman, okay? So in other words, if Trump brings her onto th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "note": "This packet contains the strongest dated prediction that a Haley VP selection would make Trump win and signal Iran-war policy; later evaluation should keep the May 17, 2024 source date.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": true, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1393.35, "end": 1457.62, "time_label": "23:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "he wins so if he picks Nikki Haley in August he will win okay I'm not completely sure that it will pick Nikki Haley I think that this is his best strategic move okay but Trump is not really predictable all right and who..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1713.468, "end": 1801.23, "time_label": "28:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So she comes across as an extremely popular exception figure, okay? So this doesn't make sense, okay? So the conclusion is that given the way, the situation in the United States, it seems very likely Trump will win in 2..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "note": "Jiang retrospectively says he would have misread Biden's chances in spring 2020, then uses that lesson to justify a falsifiable 2024 model.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": true, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 2059.3, "end": 2120.048, "time_label": "34:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? And the answer is this. If you look at 2020, everyone thought that Biden could not get the nomination. Okay? Why? Because he lacks charisma. Nobody really likes him. Okay? So when Biden goes to speak, there's no o..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2291.97, "end": 2371.6, "time_label": "38:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So why can't the Senate? Why can't something happen this year, right? And unfortunately, because Biden is so old, he's 81, he doesn't have the energy to change the way he is, you understand? It's much easier for him to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "note": "The closing explicitly names possible future falsifiers for the May 2024 prediction: Trump could pick J.D. Vance or someone else, or Trump could lose in November.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": true, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2372.54, "end": 2427.3, "time_label": "39:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay? So you know what? It's possible that in August, Trump will pick someone else, okay? Possibly someone named J.D. Vance, okay? The only thing you need to know about J.D. Vance is he's very loyal to Trump. It's possi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2427.3, "end": 2486.84, "time_label": "40:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So that it's much more reflective and accurate, okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And that's how we try to think critically about the world. By building analytical models that we can then test against reality and then b..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "uncertainty_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002" ], "note": "The transcript says '1 % of all blacks voted for Biden, only 8 % voted for Trump,' which is likely an ASR or speech error; do not silently normalize it without source correction.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 89.04, "end": 157.77, "time_label": "1:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Assuming that if 65,000 people in key battleground states flip their votes, then Trump would have won. Okay, so the margin of victory was very, very close, as is usually the case in highly contested American elections...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "note": "The college-educated voter section contains repeated and garbled wording around 'Biden comes a crime' and 'protest against Putin'; extract only the clear argumentative point.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 380.88, "end": 442.08, "time_label": "6:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Now let's look at the college educated. Okay, so 70 % of people with college degrees voted for Biden. These are what we call the, the coastal elite, right? The coastal professional managerial elite. And they usually ove..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "note": "The repeated word 'developed' appears to be ASR damage before 'divisive figure'.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 532.94, "end": 617.255, "time_label": "8:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "That's a flip of 2 million voters, okay? So in elections, usually it's a suburban vote that determines the election, because the swing voters. So for Trump to win this year, he needs to win the suburban vote. He won tha..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "note": "Audience answers are not separately transcribed; Jiang repeats or summarizes them, so the interaction structure is inferred.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 979.68, "end": 1071.932, "time_label": "16:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Anyone? Yes, okay, exactly, okay? Doesn't hold grudges, what else? What else? What else? Doesn't hold grudges. He's a very forgiving man. What else? Good, yes, he listens, right? He's a listener. He's a team player, oka..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1166.16, "end": 1241.02, "time_label": "19:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Guess who just loved her? Who voted for her in droves? Guess what demographic group? Anyone? Suburban woman, okay, do you understand? College educated suburban woman, okay? So in other words, if Trump brings her onto th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "note": "The transcript renders the donor name as 'Sheldon Alderson,' 'Sandal Sando,' and 'Sheldon Ellison'; this likely refers to Sheldon Adelson, but the semantic output should preserve uncertainty.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1457.62, "end": 1557.117, "time_label": "24:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "got her she got this money mainly for an organization called United against a nuclear Iran okay and this organization's primary purpose is to create conflict between the United States and Iran okay they they go against..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0022" ], "note": "The transcript says 'January 2019' for a post-primary Haley fundraising claim that contextually appears tied to the 2024 Republican primary; preserve the source wording unless corrected against source audio.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1638.747, "end": 1713.468, "time_label": "27:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "She'll be the one in the White House pushing for war in Iran. Escalating tension in Iran, okay? So Nikki Haley, okay, what's also interesting is, okay, in January 2019, basically the primary is over. Trump has won every..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "note": "Jack's question is paraphrased by Jiang rather than directly transcribed.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1818.63, "end": 1898.4, "time_label": "30:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Okay. So Jack asked a great question, okay? He's like... He's like, what if Haley holds a grudge and says no, right? And quite honestly, she has been asked in the past, are you willing to serve as Trump's vice president..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "note": "The UNKNOWN one-word segment has no clear semantic content and should not be treated as a substantive audience question.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2215.81, "end": 2216.41, "time_label": "36:55", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Okay?" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "note": "Jack's second question is again paraphrased by Jiang rather than directly transcribed.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-exrk-85630k@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1969.907, "end": 2059.1, "time_label": "32:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay? So that's the thing you need to know about politicians, okay? All they care about is political power. They will do anything to achieve political power. They will sell their own mother. Okay?..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ] }