prediction
Jiang says Raisi was widely expected to become supreme leader after Khamenei, and that if Raisi became Ayatollah he could shift major policy in Iran.
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Topic brief
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Khamenei
Jiang says Raisi was widely expected to become supreme leader after Khamenei, and that if Raisi became Ayatollah he could shift major policy in Iran.
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Key Notes
diagnosis
Jiang says Khamenei cultivated personal ties with the IRGC, and Mojtaba Khamenei's unpopularity would make him dependent on IRGC support and obedient to IRGC policy if he became supreme leader.
diagnosis
If Raisi's death was only an accident, Jiang says little changes because ultimate policy belongs to Khamenei rather than the president.
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Timestamped Evidence
Transcript
"...supreme leader. The supreme leader of Iran when the current Ayatollah Khamenei died, okay? So Raisi is 63 and Khamenei is 85. So we..."
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"And the third thing is, of course, foreign policy. Meaning that the Axis of Resistance gets... Sorry, the Axis of Resistance only interacts with..."
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"He even knows the names of their children. So the current Ayatollah Khomeini has a great personal relationship with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps...."
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"Now, all right. So if it was an accident, then in theory nothing changes because ultimately it's the Ayatollah Khomeini who is responsible for..."
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"...the Israelis and Americans launched a decapitation strike against the Ayatollah Khamenei, who is the supreme leader of Iran. Now there are arguments and..."
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"...yourself for the common good. So think of the death of Khamenei as a sacrifice, a self -sacrifice in order to motivate the Iranians..."
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"And, you've killed the religious leader, the Ayatollah Khamenei. So, they're willing to go very, very far. The GCC countries are Muslim, but they're..."
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"...long term long time because the Americans have killed the um Khamenei. Okay? And that requires vengeance. So is that it can unify the..."
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"...contender, the most likely, is Raisi. The second contender is actually Khamenei's son, Moshtaba Khamenei. Okay? So with him gone, Moshtaba Khamenei is most..."
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"Okay? And then the question then is, okay, alright, so Moshtaba Khamenei benefits, but who would benefit from having him as Ayatollah? And the..."
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"...revolution, the Islamic Republic. Okay? Which means ultimately that they are Khamenei's private army. They only obey him. And the other thing about the..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
Reading
A source-grounded reading of the lecture's central move: the crash was probably an accident, but if it was not, Jiang asks who had opportunity, motive, and the most to gain.
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