{ "generated_by": "Generated by ops/scripts/compile-content.mjs. 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Preserve interviewer pressure where it shapes Jiang's answer. Do not impersonate first-person authorship except when quoting verified source material.", "trace_policy": "Paragraph-level transcript refs. Dated forecasts about Iran, Trump, emergency powers, financial collapse, Israel, Epstein, and Tucker Carlson remain tied to the 2026-03-24 source.", "dek": "Redacted asks Jiang whether the Iran war is already out of control. Jiang answers with a ladder: official narratives matter less than escalation logic, morale, asymmetric control, elite plans, and the institutional shame that keeps empires gambling after the table has turned against them.", "thesis": "This interview is a pressure test of prediction as public responsibility. Jiang is not simply saying that he called the war. He says being right made him sleepless because prediction should increase agency, not turn tragedy into performance. From there the argument builds in layers. Game theory names the players; history supplies the analogies; eschatology explains why actors believe violence serves God. Iran's advantage is calm calibration, like the smaller jiu-jitsu fighter who stays controlled while the stronger opponent swings wildly. America's weakness is not only weapons. It is morale, bureaucracy, media intoxication, and the sunk-cost need to preserve imperial face. The war can become another Vietnam, an emergency-powers path, a wealth-destruction reset, or the deliberate balkanization of Persia. The final counterweight is agency: speeches, deals, restraint, and truth-telling can still alter the ladder.", "source_notes": [ { "text": "The source is a Redacted interview published 2026-03-24, framed around a then-current U.S.-Iran war scenario. The read preserves Jiang's claims as dated interpretations and forecasts from that interview rather than independent present-tense reporting.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0074" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0, "end": 60.72, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Well, the war against Iran has begun to spiral out of control, it would seem, over the past few days. Of course, we saw President Trump announcing that talks with Iran have gone very well after, of course, a massive bom..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 60.92, "end": 105.89, "time_label": "1:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Trump has asked for $200 billion from Congress, signaling that he intends to fight a long war. Well, we're thrilled now to have here on the show Professor Jiang. He's the author of Predictive History on sub -stack. Welc..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0074", "segment_id": "seg-0074", "start": 3176.51, "end": 3205.88, "time_label": "52:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "All right, we're back with Professor Zhang and to talk more about his predictions here and as well as possibly a Trump third term. Professor, before we get into the Trump third term piece of this, as you're gaming out t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "Several claims in the source are speculative or conspiratorial, especially around Epstein, false flags, elite families, and occult planning. The read keeps those as Jiang's attributed framework and does not promote them into verified project canon.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0061" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 2129.51, "end": 2188.15, "time_label": "35:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. I mean, I completely agree with David Icke's assessment. I think this is the future we're heading towards. My main issue with David Icke is that he thinks this is all deliberate. This is all scripted. This is all..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 2405.98, "end": 2471.94, "time_label": "40:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So the Epstein class, I think people focus on the wrong thing, which is they focus on pizza gate, right? They focus on the idea that Epstein was talking about, like beef jerky, pizza and grape soda. And that's what capt..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 2528.26, "end": 2584.58, "time_label": "42:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And their response was, well, we wanted money from him, right? So these are billionaires trying to beg Epstein for money. So something's wrong with our current conception of the world. And so what I will say is there is..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 2692.1, "end": 2753.34, "time_label": "44:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I completely agree with his assessment. So in the early days of the war, on the first day, a drone struck the Saudi Air Force facility in Saudi Arabia. And we assumed at first that it was Iranians. But later it was repo..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "opening": { "heading": "Core Reading", "text": "The opening question is where the war stands. Jiang answers that the public script is already too small. Trump can say talks are going well; Iran can deny it; television can chase each new statement. Underneath, the war has entered an escalation ladder. The actors keep finding reasons to climb: Israel wants a larger settlement, Iran must answer without losing the moral frame, the United States is drawn into its own credibility trap, and the Gulf states discover that energy and desalination make them vulnerable. The point of predictive history here is not prophecy. It is the attempt to see the ladder early enough for human agency to matter.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "marks": [ { "text": "the war has entered an escalation ladder", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:strategy-escalation-ladder-gains-momentum" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 107.11, "end": 171.89, "time_label": "1:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So Trump, these past three weeks, have been over the plate. Every single day, he comes up with a new narrative. But the reality on the ground is that this war is following, an escalation ladder. And it seems that..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:strategy-escalation-ladder-gains-momentum", "valid": true, "concept": "strategy-material-test", "title": null, "doc_title": "When War Becomes A Story Instead Of A Material Test", "doc_slug": "lens/when-war-becomes-a-story-instead-of-a-material-test", "url": "/lens/when-war-becomes-a-story-instead-of-a-material-test/#strategy-escalation-ladder-gains-momentum", "text": "An escalation ladder gains momentum when every actor's next move looks necessary, morale becomes a war capacity, institutions change rules and repeat victory stories, and imperial face makes withdrawal feel more damaging than another bad wager.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0088" ] } ] }, { "text": "prediction should restore agency", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 592.12, "end": 643.46, "time_label": "9:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, so thank you so much for that, Natalie. So, you know, when my predictions are correct, you know, on February 28th, the Americans and Israelis attacked Tehran and this launched the war that we are in now. I couldn'..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 60.92, "end": 105.89, "time_label": "1:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Trump has asked for $200 billion from Congress, signaling that he intends to fight a long war. Well, we're thrilled now to have here on the show Professor Jiang. He's the author of Predictive History on sub -stack. Welc..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 107.11, "end": 171.89, "time_label": "1:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So Trump, these past three weeks, have been over the plate. Every single day, he comes up with a new narrative. 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I couldn'..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, "beats": [ { "id": "prediction-under-burden", "heading": "Prediction Under Burden", "time_range": "00:00-10:43", "summary": "The hosts ask where the war stands and why Jiang's model has suddenly gripped the internet; Jiang says the model began as a classroom experiment but being right about war became a moral burden.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "prediction-under-burden-001", "text": "Clayton opens with the contradiction that frames the interview: Trump says talks are going well, Iran says there were no talks, Marines are moving toward the region, and Netanyahu says the war must be won on the ground. Jiang says the daily narrative is not the reality. The reality is the ladder. Each actor is now positioned so that the next rung looks necessary.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "marks": [ { "text": "the ladder", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 107.11, "end": 171.89, "time_label": "1:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So Trump, these past three weeks, have been over the plate. Every single day, he comes up with a new narrative. But the reality on the ground is that this war is following, an escalation ladder. And it seems that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0, "end": 60.72, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Well, the war against Iran has begun to spiral out of control, it would seem, over the past few days. Of course, we saw President Trump announcing that talks with Iran have gone very well after, of course, a massive bom..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 60.92, "end": 105.89, "time_label": "1:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Trump has asked for $200 billion from Congress, signaling that he intends to fight a long war. Well, we're thrilled now to have here on the show Professor Jiang. He's the author of Predictive History on sub -stack. Welc..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 107.11, "end": 171.89, "time_label": "1:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So Trump, these past three weeks, have been over the plate. Every single day, he comes up with a new narrative. But the reality on the ground is that this war is following, an escalation ladder. And it seems that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "prediction-under-burden-002", "text": "Natalie asks about the strange human side of prediction: families are making plans because a high school teacher in Beijing appears to see the war more clearly than the news cycle. Jiang demystifies the origin. Predictive history began as game-theory modeling for students and for his own curiosity. He had predicted Trump, an Iran war, and eventual American defeat. The surprise is that the thought experiment started to pan out in public.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 172.47, "end": 223.07, "time_label": "2:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now, you've become a bit of an internet celebrity because you have this ability to see things at a higher level than the rest of us. So while the rest of us are like, oh, he said this, maybe this is happening. And what..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 223.76, "end": 282.62, "time_label": "3:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, sure. So for the past two years, I've been developing a new system of predictive modeling where I take game theory and I make predictions about how world events will turn out. And by making these predictions, I ca..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 282.86, "end": 344.34, "time_label": "4:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And so I've received a lot of attention online. And there are two types of attention. The first is that there seems to be a coordinated spirit campaign against me, mainly by individuals who believe that I am maybe attac..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] }, { "id": "prediction-under-burden-003", "text": "The hosts do not let him become only a viral avatar. They ask whether he is deep state, Chinese propaganda, or simply silent about China. Jiang says the silence is real but practical: he lives and works in China, has a family there, and refuses to turn himself into a CCP fanboy. The distinction matters because he wants to be read as an educator, not a propagandist.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ], "marks": [ { "text": "educator, not a propagandist", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 465.06, "end": 511.28, "time_label": "7:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay, first of all, I've been very mute about China. And the reality is that I live and work in China. If I were to say anything offensive, about China, then my school would get into a lot of trouble. And quite frankly,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 448.32, "end": 464.42, "time_label": "7:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So to be clear, you're not part of the deep state. You're not part of... I've seen some people being critical saying he's part of the Chinese Communist Party and therefore he has an agenda. He's not being critical of Ch..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 465.06, "end": 511.28, "time_label": "7:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay, first of all, I've been very mute about China. And the reality is that I live and work in China. If I were to say anything offensive, about China, then my school would get into a lot of trouble. And quite frankly,..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 511.28, "end": 524.52, "time_label": "8:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I think like the criticism of me about being mute, my criticism of the Chinese Communist Party is correct. But it's just because I'm working in the reality that is China. Okay. Yeah." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "prediction-under-burden-004", "text": "Natalie's pressure makes the ethical center explicit. Jiang says he could not sleep for two weeks after the prediction appeared correct. The point is not personal satisfaction. It is the hope that if people adopt a better model, they gain agency over events and can build a better world for their children.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "marks": [ { "text": "could not sleep for two weeks", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 592.12, "end": 643.46, "time_label": "9:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, so thank you so much for that, Natalie. So, you know, when my predictions are correct, you know, on February 28th, the Americans and Israelis attacked Tehran and this launched the war that we are in now. I couldn'..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 552.5, "end": 590.66, "time_label": "9:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And if I may, I'd like to add this because we also are parents of three. And when I watch your content, it seems very much not about what you want to happen because we also have three kids. This is not the world we want..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 592.12, "end": 643.46, "time_label": "9:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, so thank you so much for that, Natalie. So, you know, when my predictions are correct, you know, on February 28th, the Americans and Israelis attacked Tehran and this launched the war that we are in now. 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And it seems that..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 223.76, "end": 282.62, "time_label": "3:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, sure. So for the past two years, I've been developing a new system of predictive modeling where I take game theory and I make predictions about how world events will turn out. And by making these predictions, I ca..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 592.12, "end": 643.46, "time_label": "9:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, so thank you so much for that, Natalie. So, you know, when my predictions are correct, you know, on February 28th, the Americans and Israelis attacked Tehran and this launched the war that we are in now. I couldn'..." } ] }, { "id": "three-strands-and-control", "heading": "Three Strands And Control", "time_range": "10:43-17:18", "summary": "Jiang names the method: game theory, historical patterning, and eschatology. Then he explains Iran's escalation control through jiu-jitsu rather than raw force.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "three-strands-and-control-001", "text": "The model has three strands. Game theory asks who the players are, what they want, what strengths they have, and which strategies advance their interests. But game theory alone is thin because outsiders do not know what key players are thinking. Jiang therefore adds historical patterning and eschatology: previous wars show repeated trajectories, and religious worldviews explain actors who believe they serve God.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "marks": [ { "text": "game theory, historical patterning, and eschatology", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 754.16, "end": 815.26, "time_label": "12:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Historical patterns just means can we think about previous wars and compare, contrast how this war will play out based on previous wars? And so what I've done is I've looked at the Vietnam War I've looked at the Pelopon..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 815.26, "end": 822.04, "time_label": "13:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "you're able to figure out where these three converge together you are then able to make accurate predictions about how things should progress." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 643.76, "end": 698.44, "time_label": "10:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So, you know, we have 8 billion people in this world and most people don't know what's going on and they choose to put their head in the sand. And what I'm trying to do with my YouTube channel is trying to say to people..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 698.76, "end": 753.72, "time_label": "11:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So as we know, a lot of what's happening in the Middle East is driven by Israel's desire to achieve the Greater Israel Project. That, you know, right now Israel is being dominated by religious fanatics who believe that..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 754.16, "end": 815.26, "time_label": "12:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Historical patterns just means can we think about previous wars and compare, contrast how this war will play out based on previous wars? And so what I've done is I've looked at the Vietnam War I've looked at the Pelopon..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 815.26, "end": 822.04, "time_label": "13:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "you're able to figure out where these three converge together you are then able to make accurate predictions about how things should progress." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "three-strands-and-control-002", "text": "Clayton asks about escalation control, the phrase that makes Iran's position less obvious. Jiang defines the ladder with a street-fight image: argument, shove, punch, knife, gun. On paper, the United States and Israel have escalation dominance because they have nuclear weapons. But in a real fight, the weaker side has to be calmer and more strategic.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0022" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 823.23, "end": 865.91, "time_label": "13:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Now you've said Iran's edge in all of this I believe and if I'm misquoting you please forgive me is escalation control. Like they so we were talking about the escalation ladder maybe you can lay that out because I think..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 866.75, "end": 922.19, "time_label": "14:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So the escalation ladder is just the idea that once you start a fight it develops its own momentum its own logic. You can't really stop it. So no two guys go into an argument thinking that they'll actually exchan..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] }, { "id": "three-strands-and-control-003", "text": "That is why Jiang reaches for Brazilian jiu-jitsu. The bigger opponent has force; the smaller opponent survives by maintaining calm and control. Iran calibrates strikes, preserves public opinion, avoids uniting the GCC, and uses Hormuz as a selective lever. America and Israel use shock and awe. Iran tries to choose precisely which pressure each move creates.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "marks": [ { "text": "the smaller opponent stays calm", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 922.55, "end": 976.89, "time_label": "15:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So I did a lot of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu before and in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu it's all about maintaining calm maintaining control. If you are able to maintain calm control you can even defeat a bigger opponent who is stronger..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "shock and awe is blunt", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 977.13, "end": 1038.27, "time_label": "16:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And so by doing that what issue what Iran is able to demonstrate is confidence in its arsenal. It's able to maintain diplomacy political diplomacy as well as global public opinion. 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They're also able to divide and conque..." } ] }, { "id": "morale-and-the-machine", "heading": "Morale And The Machine", "time_range": "17:18-31:28", "summary": "Natalie asks why there are no consequences for U.S. and Israeli escalation. Jiang answers that morale is the consequence, and that the American military machine is built for expensive failure against asymmetric opponents.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0041" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "morale-and-the-machine-001", "text": "Natalie asks the question of consequence: why can the United States and Israel escalate, destroy Gaza, hit civilian infrastructure, and keep going? Jiang says the consequence is already present, but it appears as morale. Soldiers do not want a war they cannot believe in. The public does not rally behind a war without purpose. When ground invasion becomes necessary, that lack of will becomes strategic.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "marks": [ { "text": "morale is the consequence", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:strategy-escalation-ladder-gains-momentum" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1074.71, "end": 1142.55, "time_label": "17:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So there is actually a major consequence. A major consequence is the morale of your population which affects your will to fight. Right? So if people believe that it is a good cause they are willing to commit them..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:strategy-escalation-ladder-gains-momentum", "valid": true, "concept": "strategy-material-test", "title": null, "doc_title": "When War Becomes A Story Instead Of A Material Test", "doc_slug": "lens/when-war-becomes-a-story-instead-of-a-material-test", "url": "/lens/when-war-becomes-a-story-instead-of-a-material-test/#strategy-escalation-ladder-gains-momentum", "text": "An escalation ladder gains momentum when every actor's next move looks necessary, morale becomes a war capacity, institutions change rules and repeat victory stories, and imperial face makes withdrawal feel more damaging than another bad wager.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0088" ] } ] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1038.87, "end": 1074.07, "time_label": "17:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now what's frustrating for me is that the United States and Israel can escalate in these horrific ways and there's no international consequences. So they can destroy Gaza en masse. They can hit a school of young girls a..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1074.71, "end": 1142.55, "time_label": "17:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So there is actually a major consequence. A major consequence is the morale of your population which affects your will to fight. Right? So if people believe that it is a good cause they are willing to commit them..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1142.55, "end": 1206.25, "time_label": "19:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "is that Gerald Ford is now out of commission for the next two years because the damage was so extensive. And the theory is there's an investigation as to whether the sailors deliberately set fire in a laundry room to de..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1206.43, "end": 1237.15, "time_label": "20:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Possibly Cork Island but also possibly a naval base in the south east of Iran. Once you commit the ground invasion then you're going to have a popular uprising throughout America. Once you have this social media footage..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "morale-and-the-machine-002", "text": "Clayton then asks about air power and Jiang's inverted-pyramid critique. Jiang says a real Iran conquest would require two years of staging and millions of troops. Instead, America has a military-industrial complex that built carriers, Patriots, THAAD, Iron Dome faith, and F-35 mythology for a war that Iran can answer asymmetrically.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 1237.29, "end": 1269.64, "time_label": "20:37", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Let's talk about this air power because you've been critical of I think you've referred to it as the inverted pyramid where the United States really relies on air power more than anything whether it's drones whether it'..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 1271.79, "end": 1329.77, "time_label": "21:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So if you want to win this war what you do is you spend two years to stage two million troops around Iran. Okay. So you have 500,000 troops in Pakistan ready to assault from southeast from the southeast corner. Y..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1329.77, "end": 1386.83, "time_label": "22:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Because Iraq was a balance to Iran. So Saddam Hussein miscalculated. So the problem with the American military machine is that it's run by the military industrial complex and this is something that Eisenhower warned abo..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1386.83, "end": 1450.773, "time_label": "23:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Iran is the failure of the military industrial complex to prepare for a modern war where your opponent is willing to fight back asymmetrically, right? So we see these air defense systems, the Patriot system, the THAAD s..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1450.773, "end": 1466.59, "time_label": "24:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, we were told it was unhittable. Unhittable. Yes, exactly. And the Iranians hit them with like pretty limited radar. So it just shows you the corruption of the military industrial complex right now in the United St..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] }, { "id": "morale-and-the-machine-003", "text": "The historical evidence is not abstract. Millennium Challenge taught the Pentagon that drone swarms and asymmetric creativity could beat the imperial model, so the rules were changed until the Pentagon won. Operation Prosperity Guardian taught the same lesson against the Houthis: if an opponent cannot be scared, bought, blackmailed, co-opted, or assassinated into surrender, the standard tool kit runs out.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0039" ], "marks": [ { "text": "the rules were changed until the Pentagon won", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:strategy-escalation-ladder-gains-momentum" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 1637.56, "end": 1701.36, "time_label": "27:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So the key piece of evidence is 20 years ago, about 2002, the American military, the Pentagon, ran a war game called the Millennium Challenge, the Millennium Challenge. And the idea is to look at how America coul..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 1701.6, "end": 1755.66, "time_label": "28:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And then in that iteration, in the final iteration, the Pentagon won, okay? So this shows you two things. The first thing is that the Pentagon is not ready to fight a war asymmetrically. 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So the key piece of evidence is 20 years ago, about 2002, the American military, the Pentagon, ran a war game called the Millennium Challenge, the Millennium Challenge. And the idea is to look at how America coul..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 1701.6, "end": 1755.66, "time_label": "28:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And then in that iteration, in the final iteration, the Pentagon won, okay? So this shows you two things. The first thing is that the Pentagon is not ready to fight a war asymmetrically. It doesn't have the creativity,..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 1755.74, "end": 1811.32, "time_label": "29:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "The Houthis hid in their mountains. And the Houthis refused to surrender. 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So they keep on doing it. And now what they're doing is to think about sending the Marines in for an infamous landing b..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 1861.637, "end": 1888.12, "time_label": "31:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I mean, the entire world would no longer see America as an empire, as invincible. And the Pentagon could not really countenance this possibility. So what they'll do is they'll double down. It's very much like going to a..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 1038, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1038.87, "end": 1074.07, "time_label": "17:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now what's frustrating for me is that the United States and Israel can escalate in these horrific ways and there's no international consequences. So they can destroy Gaza en masse. They can hit a school of young girls a..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1142.55, "end": 1206.25, "time_label": "19:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "is that Gerald Ford is now out of commission for the next two years because the damage was so extensive. And the theory is there's an investigation as to whether the sailors deliberately set fire in a laundry room to de..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1329.77, "end": 1386.83, "time_label": "22:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Because Iraq was a balance to Iran. So Saddam Hussein miscalculated. So the problem with the American military machine is that it's run by the military industrial complex and this is something that Eisenhower warned abo..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 1861.637, "end": 1888.12, "time_label": "31:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I mean, the entire world would no longer see America as an empire, as invincible. And the Pentagon could not really countenance this possibility. So what they'll do is they'll double down. It's very much like going to a..." } ] }, { "id": "truth-inner-fire-and-script", "heading": "Truth, Inner Fire, And Script", "time_range": "31:28-43:34", "summary": "The hosts ask about morale and the larger control plan. Jiang explains Iranian morale through Persian truth and then distinguishes elite scripts from real player agency.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "truth-inner-fire-and-script-001", "text": "Natalie asks why antiwar frustration in America seems powerless while Palestinians and Iranians have existential stakes. Jiang answers through Persian morale. He says Iranians understand themselves as a people of truth, shaped by an ancient Zoroastrian inheritance: do not preempt, do not become the aggressor, fight back when attacked, and choose the path of right.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 1888.48, "end": 1946.36, "time_label": "31:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Can I just stay on this issue of morale before you change the subject? One more question about that. Because it feels like it doesn't matter that we're all so upset about the war, but you're saying it does. But on the o..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 1946.36, "end": 1952.96, "time_label": "32:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Palestinians in Gaza have been living for decades is horrific, and those are stories that are not told to us, but it's very motivating to them." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 1954.46, "end": 2005.42, "time_label": "32:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. Look, I think that the Iranians have extremely high morale, and the reason why is they think they are on the side of truth. You know, what people forget about the Iranians is that these are the Persians, and the P..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2005.68, "end": 2060.7, "time_label": "33:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But the Persian people are like, no, we have to live the truth. We refuse to submit to the lie. So if they attack us, we'll fight back. But we will never ever be the aggressor. We will never ever choose the path of viol..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] }, { "id": "truth-inner-fire-and-script-002", "text": "The image is the opposite of the American morale problem. Tehran's sky can be black from a struck oil depot and still, Jiang says, there is a light inside the people. The claim is not that suffering disappears. It is that a good cause can turn suffering into endurance, while a bad cause turns force into exhaustion.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "marks": [ { "text": "a light inside the people", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2005.68, "end": 2060.7, "time_label": "33:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But the Persian people are like, no, we have to live the truth. We refuse to submit to the lie. So if they attack us, we'll fight back. But we will never ever be the aggressor. We will never ever choose the path of viol..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2005.68, "end": 2060.7, "time_label": "33:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But the Persian people are like, no, we have to live the truth. We refuse to submit to the lie. So if they attack us, we'll fight back. But we will never ever be the aggressor. We will never ever choose the path of viol..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "truth-inner-fire-and-script-003", "text": "Clayton then brings in David Icke: is the war part of a larger plan for AI control, digital currency, and a Patriot-Act-style loss of rights? Jiang agrees with the direction but rejects a fully scripted world. Some people may have planned the reset for decades, he says, but game theory cannot erase Trump, Putin, Iran, or other players. The script exists; so do responses to the script.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "marks": [ { "text": "the script exists; so do responses to the script", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 2188.43, "end": 2234.07, "time_label": "36:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So on where the world is heading, I agree with David Icke. But I will also point out that according to game theory, we cannot discount certain players in this game. So for example, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are ma..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 2061.74, "end": 2112.2, "time_label": "34:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "You brought up David Icke earlier. And, you know, we're big fans of David Icke here on this show. He's been a guest a number of times. One of the things that he's been saying is that this Iranian war, this collapse of I..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2112.5, "end": 2128.88, "time_label": "35:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "They are issuing in this, ushering in this new era of control just like the Patriot Act. So we can get all into the finite details about air power and this drone struck this particular oil plant and this. But really, it..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 2129.51, "end": 2188.15, "time_label": "35:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. I mean, I completely agree with David Icke's assessment. I think this is the future we're heading towards. My main issue with David Icke is that he thinks this is all deliberate. This is all scripted. This is all..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 2188.43, "end": 2234.07, "time_label": "36:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So on where the world is heading, I agree with David Icke. But I will also point out that according to game theory, we cannot discount certain players in this game. So for example, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are ma..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "truth-inner-fire-and-script-004", "text": "Asked about an energy lockdown, Jiang shifts to money. The elite problem, in his reading, is excess wealth created by years of money printing. Control may come through wiping out stores of value: civil war, financial-data-center attacks, or a false flag blamed on Iran. This is speculative and dark, but it belongs to the interview's central logic: control comes by changing what people can do, not only what they believe.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "marks": [ { "text": "wiping out stores of value", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2286.84, "end": 2342.18, "time_label": "38:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I actually think the real issue that the global elite need to resolve is the financial system, meaning that over the past 10, 20 years, they printed too much money. And there are too many individuals who are millionaire..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2342.68, "end": 2354.32, "time_label": "39:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "That's terrifying. I mean, yeah, maybe not the lockdown in the COVID sense of the term, but locking us down financially by wiping out huge stores of value. That's absolutely terrifying." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 2234.41, "end": 2285.69, "time_label": "37:14", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Yeah, no, I see what you mean. And I think you're spot on with that because there are individual players in this that have agency and can manipulate. There is a broader framework, whatever you want to call it, this 2030..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2286.84, "end": 2342.18, "time_label": "38:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I actually think the real issue that the global elite need to resolve is the financial system, meaning that over the past 10, 20 years, they printed too much money. And there are too many individuals who are millionaire..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2342.68, "end": 2354.32, "time_label": "39:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "That's terrifying. I mean, yeah, maybe not the lockdown in the COVID sense of the term, but locking us down financially by wiping out huge stores of value. That's absolutely terrifying." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 1888, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 1888.48, "end": 1946.36, "time_label": "31:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Can I just stay on this issue of morale before you change the subject? One more question about that. Because it feels like it doesn't matter that we're all so upset about the war, but you're saying it does. But on the o..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2005.68, "end": 2060.7, "time_label": "33:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But the Persian people are like, no, we have to live the truth. We refuse to submit to the lie. So if they attack us, we'll fight back. But we will never ever be the aggressor. We will never ever choose the path of viol..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 2129.51, "end": 2188.15, "time_label": "35:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. I mean, I completely agree with David Icke's assessment. I think this is the future we're heading towards. My main issue with David Icke is that he thinks this is all deliberate. This is all scripted. This is all..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2286.84, "end": 2342.18, "time_label": "38:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I actually think the real issue that the global elite need to resolve is the financial system, meaning that over the past 10, 20 years, they printed too much money. And there are too many individuals who are millionaire..." } ] }, { "id": "epstein-israel-and-agency", "heading": "Epstein, Israel, And Agency", "time_range": "39:14-52:03", "summary": "The conversation moves through Epstein, transnational elites, Israeli incentives, Iranian objectives, and the possibility that Trump could still restrain Israel.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0068" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "epstein-israel-and-agency-001", "text": "Natalie asks about the Epstein class, and Jiang's answer is deliberately not the lurid version. He says people focus on island blackmail and coded food language, but the more important question is what Epstein was doing as an operative: money laundering, arms trafficking, financial crisis, and geopolitical manipulation. The Epstein class, in his formulation, are parasites on the nation-state.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0058" ], "marks": [ { "text": "parasites on the nation-state", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0058" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 2584.82, "end": 2614.76, "time_label": "43:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And if you look at his emails, what he will say is there were three major Jewish families in Europe. They were the Rothschilds, the Epsteins, and the Gutmans. And he said, he told Peter Thiel, I represent the Rothschild..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2354.68, "end": 2404.57, "time_label": "39:14", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yes. I do want to talk about these dark forces a little bit more because the Epstein class is clearly a real thing. And how much of the Epstein class do you think is just that they're satanic perverts doing things for t..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 2405.98, "end": 2471.94, "time_label": "40:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So the Epstein class, I think people focus on the wrong thing, which is they focus on pizza gate, right? They focus on the idea that Epstein was talking about, like beef jerky, pizza and grape soda. And that's what capt..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 2472.1, "end": 2528.04, "time_label": "41:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But a lot of, if you just connect the dots, it suggests that he was in a certain way involved in 9 -11. You know, he was a neighbor to Howard Lugnick in Manhattan, right? So, and they were neighbors and their numbers we..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 2528.26, "end": 2584.58, "time_label": "42:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And their response was, well, we wanted money from him, right? So these are billionaires trying to beg Epstein for money. So something's wrong with our current conception of the world. And so what I will say is there is..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 2584.82, "end": 2614.76, "time_label": "43:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And if you look at his emails, what he will say is there were three major Jewish families in Europe. They were the Rothschilds, the Epsteins, and the Gutmans. And he said, he told Peter Thiel, I represent the Rothschild..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "epstein-israel-and-agency-002", "text": "Clayton brings the argument back to de-escalation through Joe Kent: can the war stop unless Israel is restrained? Jiang agrees, saying Israel benefits from dragging the war out and pulling in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, and Pakistan. But he adds the mirror image. Iran also has objectives: control Hormuz, push the U.S. military out of the GCC, and establish enough credibility that Israel must eventually negotiate.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0063" ], "marks": [ { "text": "control Hormuz", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0063" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 2816.4, "end": 2860.36, "time_label": "46:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "The first thing they need to do is establish control over the Strait of Hormuz. And that would be the main economic lifeline where they can charge a 10 % toll on any passage through the Strait of Hormuz. So that's numbe..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 2615.38, "end": 2671.76, "time_label": "43:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "You know, Joe Kent last week, I think it was last week now, time is flying so quickly, resigned from the Trump administration basically trying to prevent this war in Iran. He says that everybody, all of the intelligence..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "segment_id": "seg-0060", "start": 2671.76, "end": 2691.34, "time_label": "44:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "now repeatedly in these past few weeks is that the United States says one thing and then the Israelis like go around quickly and launch some sort of attack on Iranian infrastructure. Like you mentioned, the oil and the..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 2692.1, "end": 2753.34, "time_label": "44:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I completely agree with his assessment. So in the early days of the war, on the first day, a drone struck the Saudi Air Force facility in Saudi Arabia. And we assumed at first that it was Iranians. But later it was repo..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 2753.58, "end": 2816.18, "time_label": "45:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But now it's been reported that actually these missiles were fired from an Israeli submarine. So it is in the best interest, according to Game Theory, for Israel to drag this war out as much as possible and to drag in a..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 2816.4, "end": 2860.36, "time_label": "46:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "The first thing they need to do is establish control over the Strait of Hormuz. And that would be the main economic lifeline where they can charge a 10 % toll on any passage through the Strait of Hormuz. So that's numbe..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "epstein-israel-and-agency-003", "text": "Jiang's sharpest reversal is that Israel's main regional competitor is not Iran but the United States. The Greater Israel Project, as he describes it, does not need Persia. It needs the GCC weakened and the American military presence destroyed. The apparent patron becomes the obstacle.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0066" ], "marks": [ { "text": "the apparent patron becomes the obstacle", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0066" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0066", "segment_id": "seg-0066", "start": 2932.06, "end": 2952.64, "time_label": "48:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And Netanyahu's response was, well, it didn't work out great for us the first time, okay? So this is how the Israelis think. They see, they understand like their main competitor in the Middle East is actually not Iran,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "segment_id": "seg-0065", "start": 2869.12, "end": 2931.5, "time_label": "47:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So if you look at the Greater Israel Project, it's very clear that it extends from the Nile to the Euphrates. It does not include Persia. Israel is not actually interested in Persia. So according to Game Theory,..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0066", "segment_id": "seg-0066", "start": 2932.06, "end": 2952.64, "time_label": "48:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And Netanyahu's response was, well, it didn't work out great for us the first time, okay? So this is how the Israelis think. They see, they understand like their main competitor in the Middle East is actually not Iran,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "epstein-israel-and-agency-004", "text": "Natalie asks whether the bad guys can ever be stopped. Jiang answers with agency rather than fate. Trump could strike a deal with Iran and the GCC, restrict Israeli leverage in Washington, stop arms sales, and stop financing Israeli military activity. The war has a script, but it is not closed. Someone can still refuse the assigned role.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0067", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0068", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0069", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0071" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0067", "segment_id": "seg-0067", "start": 2952.64, "end": 2993.14, "time_label": "49:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, it's very much like Game of Thrones. I keep mentioning there's this little finger character who is befriending these leaders and then leading them and advising them into their own self -destruction. If you know Ga..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0068", "segment_id": "seg-0068", "start": 2994.94, "end": 3052.32, "time_label": "49:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, there's a lot of agency. And Donald Trump could have come to Jesus' moment and he strikes a deal with the Iranians and he restricts the Israelis, right? So Donald Trump says, for the greater good, I'm going to str..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0069", "segment_id": "seg-0069", "start": 3052.44, "end": 3053.6, "time_label": "50:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "we know this." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "segment_id": "seg-0070", "start": 3053.8, "end": 3060.76, "time_label": "50:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Yeah, exactly. And they have a space program. Why are we propping up a country that has a space program?" }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0071", "segment_id": "seg-0071", "start": 3060.76, "end": 3076.12, "time_label": "51:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "It's incredibly frustrating because federal workers are not being paid at the airports. We, you know, just traveled this weekend and we walked through and it's heartbreaking to watch these people go without paychecks an..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ], "start": 2354, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2354.68, "end": 2404.57, "time_label": "39:14", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yes. I do want to talk about these dark forces a little bit more because the Epstein class is clearly a real thing. And how much of the Epstein class do you think is just that they're satanic perverts doing things for t..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 2584.82, "end": 2614.76, "time_label": "43:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And if you look at his emails, what he will say is there were three major Jewish families in Europe. They were the Rothschilds, the Epsteins, and the Gutmans. And he said, he told Peter Thiel, I represent the Rothschild..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 2753.58, "end": 2816.18, "time_label": "45:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But now it's been reported that actually these missiles were fired from an Israeli submarine. So it is in the best interest, according to Game Theory, for Israel to drag this war out as much as possible and to drag in a..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0068", "segment_id": "seg-0068", "start": 2994.94, "end": 3052.32, "time_label": "49:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, there's a lot of agency. And Donald Trump could have come to Jesus' moment and he strikes a deal with the Iranians and he restricts the Israelis, right? So Donald Trump says, for the greater good, I'm going to str..." } ] }, { "id": "vietnam-emergency-powers", "heading": "Vietnam To Emergency Powers", "time_range": "52:03-57:05", "summary": "Asked for the next prediction, Jiang says the war points toward Vietnam, draft pressure, riots, National Guard deployment, emergency powers, and a possible Trump third term.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0074", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0075", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0079" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "vietnam-emergency-powers-001", "text": "When Clayton asks for the next prediction, Jiang says the war is heading toward another Vietnam. A limited Marine operation becomes escalation because the military institution is built to keep going until it wins. Once committed, it does not stop because stopping would admit failure.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0074", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0075" ], "marks": [ { "text": "another Vietnam", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0075" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:strategy-escalation-ladder-gains-momentum" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0075", "segment_id": "seg-0075", "start": 3206.86, "end": 3282.08, "time_label": "53:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, so I will say that I think this war is heading in the direction of another Vietnam. You know, at that time it was a military war. You know, the three first wars were like, you know, there was a Japanese war and th..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:strategy-escalation-ladder-gains-momentum", "valid": true, "concept": "strategy-material-test", "title": null, "doc_title": "When War Becomes A Story Instead Of A Material Test", "doc_slug": "lens/when-war-becomes-a-story-instead-of-a-material-test", "url": "/lens/when-war-becomes-a-story-instead-of-a-material-test/#strategy-escalation-ladder-gains-momentum", "text": "An escalation ladder gains momentum when every actor's next move looks necessary, morale becomes a war capacity, institutions change rules and repeat victory stories, and imperial face makes withdrawal feel more damaging than another bad wager.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0088" ] } ] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0074", "segment_id": "seg-0074", "start": 3176.51, "end": 3205.88, "time_label": "52:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "All right, we're back with Professor Zhang and to talk more about his predictions here and as well as possibly a Trump third term. Professor, before we get into the Trump third term piece of this, as you're gaming out t..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0075", "segment_id": "seg-0075", "start": 3206.86, "end": 3282.08, "time_label": "53:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, so I will say that I think this war is heading in the direction of another Vietnam. You know, at that time it was a military war. You know, the three first wars were like, you know, there was a Japanese war and th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "vietnam-emergency-powers-002", "text": "The domestic chain is the frightening part. Jiang predicts pressure for a national draft, riots across America, National Guard deployment in major cities, emergency powers, and then a path for Trump to bypass elections or secure a third term. Clayton names the comparison to Zelensky; Natalie names the collapse of rules themselves.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0077", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0078" ], "marks": [ { "text": "draft, riots, emergency powers", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076", "segment_id": "seg-0076", "start": 3282.08, "end": 3314.62, "time_label": "54:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "the military on Donald Trump to institute a national draft and so I think he will have no choice in the matter but to institute a national draft in which case you will have riots throughout America and they have a plan..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076", "segment_id": "seg-0076", "start": 3282.08, "end": 3314.62, "time_label": "54:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "the military on Donald Trump to institute a national draft and so I think he will have no choice in the matter but to institute a national draft in which case you will have riots throughout America and they have a plan..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0077", "segment_id": "seg-0077", "start": 3315.49, "end": 3319.83, "time_label": "55:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So a third term without an election sort of like Zelensky basically." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0078", "segment_id": "seg-0078", "start": 3319.91, "end": 3360.55, "time_label": "55:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Well right I mean he already has a war without congressional declaration and so again I come back to we have rules and orders and all of them are just being steamrolled right now that it doesn't it. Right so what we hav..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "vietnam-emergency-powers-003", "text": "Jiang then makes the 2003 comparison cut the other way. The Iraq war was sold with months of public argument, congressional approval-seeking, and UN theater. The evidence was bad, but there was still a ritual of legitimation. In this war, he says, even that ritual has been steamrolled. The strike happens first; the reasons arrive damaged and contradictory afterward.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0079", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0080" ], "marks": [ { "text": "the reasons arrive afterward", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0079" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0079", "segment_id": "seg-0079", "start": 3361.54, "end": 3425.14, "time_label": "56:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. very worrying that this war was started in a way that was not the way the war started in 2003. So in 2003, the Bush administration spent months rallying public support. They wanted congressional approval. They sp..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0079", "segment_id": "seg-0079", "start": 3361.54, "end": 3425.14, "time_label": "56:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. very worrying that this war was started in a way that was not the way the war started in 2003. So in 2003, the Bush administration spent months rallying public support. They wanted congressional approval. They sp..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0080", "segment_id": "seg-0080", "start": 3422.6, "end": 3425.14, "time_label": "57:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 3123, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0074", "segment_id": "seg-0074", "start": 3176.51, "end": 3205.88, "time_label": "52:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "All right, we're back with Professor Zhang and to talk more about his predictions here and as well as possibly a Trump third term. Professor, before we get into the Trump third term piece of this, as you're gaming out t..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0075", "segment_id": "seg-0075", "start": 3206.86, "end": 3282.08, "time_label": "53:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, so I will say that I think this war is heading in the direction of another Vietnam. You know, at that time it was a military war. You know, the three first wars were like, you know, there was a Japanese war and th..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076", "segment_id": "seg-0076", "start": 3282.08, "end": 3314.62, "time_label": "54:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "the military on Donald Trump to institute a national draft and so I think he will have no choice in the matter but to institute a national draft in which case you will have riots throughout America and they have a plan..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0079", "segment_id": "seg-0079", "start": 3361.54, "end": 3425.14, "time_label": "56:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. very worrying that this war was started in a way that was not the way the war started in 2003. So in 2003, the Bush administration spent months rallying public support. They wanted congressional approval. They sp..." } ] }, { "id": "destroy-persia-or-alter-the-ladder", "heading": "Destroy Persia, Or Alter The Ladder", "time_range": "57:05-64:24", "summary": "The close moves from propaganda and balkanization to Tucker Carlson as Jiang's proof that public speech can still change war trajectories.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0082", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0088", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "destroy-persia-or-alter-the-ladder-001", "text": "Clayton asks whether there is any plan at all. Jiang says yes, and that is worse. The plan is not a clean military victory. It is to balkanize Iran into ethnic enclaves, destroy water and power infrastructure, and make groups fight over survival for decades. He calls it the destruction of Persia as a civilization and links it to Iraq, Libya, and Syria.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0082", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0083", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0085" ], "marks": [ { "text": "destroy Persia as a civilization", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084", "segment_id": "seg-0084", "start": 3491.25, "end": 3544.57, "time_label": "58:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, I mean, if you just look at America's history in the Middle East for the past 20 years, what they did in Iraq, what they did in Libya and Syria, I think there is a plan. The plan is to balkanize Iran into ethnic e..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0082", "segment_id": "seg-0082", "start": 3427.91, "end": 3470.65, "time_label": "57:07", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "I mean, you know, I normally wouldn't want to point out The Economist magazine, professor. I'm not a fan of that liberal rag, normally. But at the airport, just reading the front cover, I think the headline, the front c..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0083", "segment_id": "seg-0083", "start": 3470.85, "end": 3490.43, "time_label": "57:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But let me just point out, having that within weeks of the start of the war is something different. We had to wait years in the Iraq war to get this kind of... Yeah. We had to wait years in the Iraq war to get this kind..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084", "segment_id": "seg-0084", "start": 3491.25, "end": 3544.57, "time_label": "58:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, I mean, if you just look at America's history in the Middle East for the past 20 years, what they did in Iraq, what they did in Libya and Syria, I think there is a plan. The plan is to balkanize Iran into ethnic e..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0085", "segment_id": "seg-0085", "start": 3544.79, "end": 3582.59, "time_label": "59:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "The problem with that is that everyone who worked in government, everyone who worked in the military, everyone who worked in the police was a member of the Baptist party. And so with that one order, it destroyed the nat..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "destroy-persia-or-alter-the-ladder-002", "text": "The propaganda problem is that Washington hears only what lets the ladder continue. Dissenters are pushed out; the media says the war is going great; the enemy is always one day or one week from collapse. Jiang's Ukraine analogy is not just about false optimism. It is about decision-makers drinking their own story until disaster feels like progress.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0086", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0087", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0088" ], "marks": [ { "text": "drinking their own story", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0087" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:strategy-escalation-ladder-gains-momentum" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0087", "segment_id": "seg-0087", "start": 3615.27, "end": 3688.21, "time_label": "1:00:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So I think you're exactly correct in that the media will just be as propagandistic in this war against Iran as it was against Ukraine. So the problem with this, though... Unfortunately, Washington, D.C. has becom..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:strategy-escalation-ladder-gains-momentum", "valid": true, "concept": "strategy-material-test", "title": null, "doc_title": "When War Becomes A Story Instead Of A Material Test", "doc_slug": "lens/when-war-becomes-a-story-instead-of-a-material-test", "url": "/lens/when-war-becomes-a-story-instead-of-a-material-test/#strategy-escalation-ladder-gains-momentum", "text": "An escalation ladder gains momentum when every actor's next move looks necessary, morale becomes a war capacity, institutions change rules and repeat victory stories, and imperial face makes withdrawal feel more damaging than another bad wager.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0088" ] } ] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0086", "segment_id": "seg-0086", "start": 3583.62, "end": 3613.96, "time_label": "59:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "I guess we'll get you out of here on this, Professor. We haven't really talked about the media propaganda piece of all of this, which is really ramped into overdrive. You heard over the past few days, the same publicati..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0087", "segment_id": "seg-0087", "start": 3615.27, "end": 3688.21, "time_label": "1:00:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So I think you're exactly correct in that the media will just be as propagandistic in this war against Iran as it was against Ukraine. So the problem with this, though... Unfortunately, Washington, D.C. has becom..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0088", "segment_id": "seg-0088", "start": 3688.75, "end": 3737.45, "time_label": "1:01:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. They're aware of this. And so this war in Ukraine is dragging on for no particular reason, even though it's led to the destruction of Ukraine as a nation state, and even though this war is not winnable. And we can..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "destroy-persia-or-alter-the-ladder-003", "text": "Then Jiang interrupts the goodbye to thank Tucker Carlson. In his account, the Soleimani assassination in January 2020 could have produced this same war, and Carlson's antiwar broadcasting helped stop it. The claim is sweeping, but it is also the interview's final answer to fatalism. Speech matters. A public figure can still put a hand on the ladder.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0090", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0092", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0093", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0094", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0095" ], "marks": [ { "text": "put a hand on the ladder", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091", "segment_id": "seg-0091", "start": 3747.48, "end": 3805.1, "time_label": "1:02:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Sorry. Before we end, I just want to give a quick shout out to Tucker Carlson, okay? Sure. Because people don't remember this, but we could have been in this situation in January 2020, because that's when Trump ordered..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0090", "segment_id": "seg-0090", "start": 3738.96, "end": 3747.48, "time_label": "1:02:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Well, Professor, thank you for like staying awake for us and joining us on this show. I know the time zones are really, really..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091", "segment_id": "seg-0091", "start": 3747.48, "end": 3805.1, "time_label": "1:02:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Sorry. Before we end, I just want to give a quick shout out to Tucker Carlson, okay? Sure. Because people don't remember this, but we could have been in this situation in January 2020, because that's when Trump ordered..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0092", "segment_id": "seg-0092", "start": 3805.82, "end": 3811.58, "time_label": "1:03:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "to speak out against the war and great personal risk yes he continues to do that at great" }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0093", "segment_id": "seg-0093", "start": 3811.58, "end": 3852.88, "time_label": "1:03:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "personal risk so yeah yeah and then speaking out against the ukraine war and the the united states involvement in that you know you know that's why yes that and that's why he got fired from fox news um clearly professor..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0094", "segment_id": "seg-0094", "start": 3852.88, "end": 3857.86, "time_label": "1:04:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "yeah no i i love talking to you guys yeah i mean uh i would love to come back we've been looking" }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0095", "segment_id": "seg-0095", "start": 3857.86, "end": 3864.18, "time_label": "1:04:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "forward to it so yes open invitation thanks professor yeah anytime you're welcome so thank you so much really appreciate it" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 3425, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0082", "segment_id": "seg-0082", "start": 3427.91, "end": 3470.65, "time_label": "57:07", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "I mean, you know, I normally wouldn't want to point out The Economist magazine, professor. I'm not a fan of that liberal rag, normally. But at the airport, just reading the front cover, I think the headline, the front c..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084", "segment_id": "seg-0084", "start": 3491.25, "end": 3544.57, "time_label": "58:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, I mean, if you just look at America's history in the Middle East for the past 20 years, what they did in Iraq, what they did in Libya and Syria, I think there is a plan. The plan is to balkanize Iran into ethnic e..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0088", "segment_id": "seg-0088", "start": 3688.75, "end": 3737.45, "time_label": "1:01:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. They're aware of this. And so this war in Ukraine is dragging on for no particular reason, even though it's led to the destruction of Ukraine as a nation state, and even though this war is not winnable. And we can..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091", "segment_id": "seg-0091", "start": 3747.48, "end": 3805.1, "time_label": "1:02:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Sorry. Before we end, I just want to give a quick shout out to Tucker Carlson, okay? Sure. Because people don't remember this, but we could have been in this situation in January 2020, because that's when Trump ordered..." } ] } ], "questions": [ { "question": "Where do things stand right now in your estimation?", "asked_by": "Clayton Morris", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0002" ], "answer": "Jiang says the public narratives do not matter as much as the escalation ladder: Israel, Iran, the United States, and Gulf states are all moving toward higher stakes and worse retaliation.", "answer_refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 60.92, "end": 105.89, "time_label": "1:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Trump has asked for $200 billion from Congress, signaling that he intends to fight a long war. Well, we're thrilled now to have here on the show Professor Jiang. He's the author of Predictive History on sub -stack. Welc..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Jiang says the public narratives do not matter as much as the escalation ladder: Israel, Iran, the United States, and Gulf states are all moving toward higher stakes and worse retaliation.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 107.11, "end": 171.89, "time_label": "1:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So Trump, these past three weeks, have been over the plate. Every single day, he comes up with a new narrative. But the reality on the ground is that this war is following, an escalation ladder. And it seems that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "question": "Can you talk about some of the response to you and also what's practical for the rest of us watching this war in horror?", "asked_by": "Natalie Morris", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "answer": "Jiang says predictive history began as a game-theory thought experiment, but the public response forced him to explain that prediction is supposed to increase agency rather than turn tragedy into personal triumph.", "answer_refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 172.47, "end": 223.07, "time_label": "2:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now, you've become a bit of an internet celebrity because you have this ability to see things at a higher level than the rest of us. So while the rest of us are like, oh, he said this, maybe this is happening. And what..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Jiang says predictive history began as a game-theory thought experiment, but the public response forced him to explain that prediction is supposed to increase agency rather than turn tragedy into personal triumph.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 223.76, "end": 282.62, "time_label": "3:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, sure. So for the past two years, I've been developing a new system of predictive modeling where I take game theory and I make predictions about how world events will turn out. And by making these predictions, I ca..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 592.12, "end": 643.46, "time_label": "9:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, so thank you so much for that, Natalie. So, you know, when my predictions are correct, you know, on February 28th, the Americans and Israelis attacked Tehran and this launched the war that we are in now. I couldn'..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "question": "What exactly does escalation control mean in terms of the United States and Israel's plan to actually escalate this war?", "asked_by": "Clayton Morris", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0021" ], "answer": "Jiang says the weaker fighter can win control by staying calm: Iran calibrates targets, diplomacy, public opinion, GCC pressure, and Hormuz, while the United States and Israel rely on blunt shock and awe.", "answer_refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 823.23, "end": 865.91, "time_label": "13:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Now you've said Iran's edge in all of this I believe and if I'm misquoting you please forgive me is escalation control. Like they so we were talking about the escalation ladder maybe you can lay that out because I think..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Jiang says the weaker fighter can win control by staying calm: Iran calibrates targets, diplomacy, public opinion, GCC pressure, and Hormuz, while the United States and Israel rely on blunt shock and awe.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 866.75, "end": 922.19, "time_label": "14:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So the escalation ladder is just the idea that once you start a fight it develops its own momentum its own logic. You can't really stop it. So no two guys go into an argument thinking that they'll actually exchan..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 922.55, "end": 976.89, "time_label": "15:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So I did a lot of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu before and in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu it's all about maintaining calm maintaining control. If you are able to maintain calm control you can even defeat a bigger opponent who is stronger..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 977.13, "end": 1038.27, "time_label": "16:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And so by doing that what issue what Iran is able to demonstrate is confidence in its arsenal. It's able to maintain diplomacy political diplomacy as well as global public opinion. They're also able to divide and conque..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "question": "Do you see this war as part of a larger game of AI control, digital currency, and rights loss?", "asked_by": "Clayton Morris", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "answer": "Jiang agrees with the direction toward control and reset but says a scripted theory misses agency: elites may have a plan, yet players like Trump and Putin can still bend or disrupt the script.", "answer_refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 2061.74, "end": 2112.2, "time_label": "34:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "You brought up David Icke earlier. And, you know, we're big fans of David Icke here on this show. He's been a guest a number of times. One of the things that he's been saying is that this Iranian war, this collapse of I..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2112.5, "end": 2128.88, "time_label": "35:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "They are issuing in this, ushering in this new era of control just like the Patriot Act. So we can get all into the finite details about air power and this drone struck this particular oil plant and this. But really, it..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Jiang agrees with the direction toward control and reset but says a scripted theory misses agency: elites may have a plan, yet players like Trump and Putin can still bend or disrupt the script.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 2129.51, "end": 2188.15, "time_label": "35:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. I mean, I completely agree with David Icke's assessment. I think this is the future we're heading towards. My main issue with David Icke is that he thinks this is all deliberate. This is all scripted. This is all..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 2188.43, "end": 2234.07, "time_label": "36:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So on where the world is heading, I agree with David Icke. But I will also point out that according to game theory, we cannot discount certain players in this game. So for example, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are ma..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "question": "Are there predictions over the next month or year that you want to reveal?", "asked_by": "Clayton Morris", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0074" ], "answer": "Jiang predicts a Vietnam-like path from limited Marine deployment to mission creep, draft pressure, riots, National Guard deployment, emergency powers, and a possible Trump third-term route.", "answer_refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0075", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0074", "segment_id": "seg-0074", "start": 3176.51, "end": 3205.88, "time_label": "52:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "All right, we're back with Professor Zhang and to talk more about his predictions here and as well as possibly a Trump third term. Professor, before we get into the Trump third term piece of this, as you're gaming out t..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Jiang predicts a Vietnam-like path from limited Marine deployment to mission creep, draft pressure, riots, National Guard deployment, emergency powers, and a possible Trump third-term route.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0075", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0075", "segment_id": "seg-0075", "start": 3206.86, "end": 3282.08, "time_label": "53:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, so I will say that I think this war is heading in the direction of another Vietnam. You know, at that time it was a military war. You know, the three first wars were like, you know, there was a Japanese war and th..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076", "segment_id": "seg-0076", "start": 3282.08, "end": 3314.62, "time_label": "54:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "the military on Donald Trump to institute a national draft and so I think he will have no choice in the matter but to institute a national draft in which case you will have riots throughout America and they have a plan..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] } ] }, "transcript": [ { "id": "seg-0001", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "start": 0, "end": 60.72, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Well, the war against Iran has begun to spiral out of control, it would seem, over the past few days. Of course, we saw President Trump announcing that talks with Iran have gone very well after, of course, a massive bombing campaign that was targeting their energy infrastructure. But then Iran responds and says that, no, there were no talks with Trump, and they claim that he retreated from the talks. But meanwhile, boots on the ground, thousands of Marines being deployed to the region, this seems to be spiraling out of control. Professor Jiang, on his sub -stack, his predictive history sub -stack, wrote this. The U.S.-Iran Endgame. We are but three weeks into this senseless and pointless war, and it seems certain now that the Americans will commit boots on the ground. The Pentagon is deploying an additional 5,000 troops to the Middle East, and Netanyahu has reappeared to say that the war must... be won on the ground, not from the air.", "word_count": 167, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-001", "start": 0, "end": 4.36, "text": "Well, the war against Iran has begun to spiral out of control,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-002", "start": 4.48, "end": 6.4, "text": "it would seem, over the past few days.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-003", "start": 6.48, "end": 10.4, "text": "Of course, we saw President Trump announcing that talks with Iran have", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-004", "start": 10.4, "end": 13.36, "text": "gone very well after, of course,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-005", "start": 13.44, "end": 17.16, "text": "a massive bombing campaign that was targeting their energy infrastructure.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-006", "start": 17.74, "end": 20.86, "text": "But then Iran responds and says that,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-007", "start": 20.94, "end": 23.82, "text": "no, there were no talks with Trump,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-008", "start": 23.9, "end": 28.1, "text": "and they claim that he retreated from the talks.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-009", "start": 28.1, "end": 30.44, "text": "But meanwhile, boots on the ground,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-010", "start": 30.62, "end": 34.26, "text": "thousands of Marines being deployed to the region,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-011", "start": 34.46, "end": 36.96, "text": "this seems to be spiraling out of control.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-012", "start": 37.4, "end": 39.98, "text": "Professor Jiang, on his sub -stack,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-013", "start": 40, "end": 41.58, "text": "his predictive history sub -stack,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-014", "start": 41.58, "end": 42.14, "text": "wrote this.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-015", "start": 42.34, "end": 44.36, "text": "The U.S.-Iran Endgame.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-016", "start": 44.48, "end": 47.36, "text": "We are but three weeks into this senseless and pointless war,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-017", "start": 47.46, "end": 50.74, "text": "and it seems certain now that the Americans will commit boots on", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-018", "start": 50.74, "end": 51.16, "text": "the ground.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-019", "start": 51.26, "end": 54.66, "text": "The Pentagon is deploying an additional 5,000 troops to the Middle", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-020", "start": 54.66, "end": 58.08, "text": "East, and Netanyahu has reappeared to say that the war must...", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-021", "start": 58.1, "end": 58.36, "text": "be won", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-022", "start": 58.36, "end": 60.72, "text": "on the ground, not from the air.", "word_count": 7 } ], "text_sha256": "78a67c0ac74fa07d4ad62d1edbd35faf113c9b13fae8a572f9dcbdfaef6fa282", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0001", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=0s", "time_label": "0:00", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0002", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "start": 60.92, "end": 105.89, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Trump has asked for $200 billion from Congress, signaling that he intends to fight a long war. Well, we're thrilled now to have here on the show Professor Jiang. He's the author of Predictive History on sub -stack. Welcome to Redacted. Great to have you here. Thanks so much, Clayton. I love your show. Well, it's our pleasure to have you here. So, you know, those are your words just a few days ago on your sub -stack. As you describe it, the senseless war. And committing U.S. boots on the ground. It seems that that part of the story is ramping up while we get this rhetoric from the Trump administration that talks have gone great. We're about to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Nothing to see here. Don't worry about your energy prices. Where do things stand right now in your estimation?", "word_count": 145, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-001", "start": 60.92, "end": 64.06, "text": "Trump has asked for $200 billion from Congress,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-002", "start": 64.72, "end": 67.52, "text": "signaling that he intends to fight a long war.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-003", "start": 68.02, "end": 71.02, "text": "Well, we're thrilled now to have here on the show Professor Jiang.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-004", "start": 71.3, "end": 74.12, "text": "He's the author of Predictive History on sub -stack.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-005", "start": 74.38, "end": 75.58, "text": "Welcome to Redacted.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-006", "start": 75.6, "end": 76.42, "text": "Great to have you here.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-007", "start": 77.26, "end": 78.26, "text": "Thanks so much, Clayton.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-008", "start": 78.34, "end": 78.9, "text": "I love your show.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-009", "start": 79.45, "end": 81.23, "text": "Well, it's our pleasure to have you here.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-010", "start": 81.47, "end": 84.29, "text": "So, you know, those are your words just a few days ago", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-011", "start": 84.29, "end": 85.79, "text": "on your sub -stack.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-012", "start": 86.41, "end": 88.43, "text": "As you describe it, the senseless war.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-013", "start": 88.45, "end": 89.69, "text": "And committing U.S.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-014", "start": 89.73, "end": 90.77, "text": "boots on the ground.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-015", "start": 90.95, "end": 93.61, "text": "It seems that that part of the story is ramping up while", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-016", "start": 93.61, "end": 97.39, "text": "we get this rhetoric from the Trump administration that talks have gone", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-017", "start": 97.39, "end": 99.97, "text": "great. We're about to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-018", "start": 100.11, "end": 100.93, "text": "Nothing to see here.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-019", "start": 101.01, "end": 102.41, "text": "Don't worry about your energy prices.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-020", "start": 102.71, "end": 105.89, "text": "Where do things stand right now in your estimation?", "word_count": 9 } ], "text_sha256": "bb508b7f0ed6d0dc2fcdfc5161206e926c21f08458a60a84b1ab772df7b7930b", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0002", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=60s", "time_label": "1:00", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0003", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "start": 107.11, "end": 171.89, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Right. So Trump, these past three weeks, have been over the plate. Every single day, he comes up with a new narrative. But the reality on the ground is that this war is following, an escalation ladder. And it seems that day by day, the escalation is getting worse and worse. So there's fear now that Israelis will strike the power plants of Iran, which is targeting now the civilian infrastructure of Iran. Iran has stated that in public, that if their power plants are attacked, then they will respond by targeting the energy infrastructure of the GCC. And possibly, they will also attack the energy infrastructure of Iran. And possibly, the desalination plants as well. And so right now, the GCC, especially the UAE, they're facing an existential crisis. The UAE has doubled down and said that they themselves want to remove the Iranian threat once and for all. And the Israelis are completely committed to the fight. So it seems like all the different actors want this to escalate.", "word_count": 171, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-001", "start": 107.11, "end": 110.09, "text": "Right. So Trump, these past three weeks,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-002", "start": 110.13, "end": 110.95, "text": "have been over the plate.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-003", "start": 111.29, "end": 114.63, "text": "Every single day, he comes up with a new narrative.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-004", "start": 115.11, "end": 118.65, "text": "But the reality on the ground is that this war is following,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-005", "start": 118.93, "end": 120.49, "text": "an escalation ladder.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-006", "start": 120.77, "end": 123.11, "text": "And it seems that day by day,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-007", "start": 123.89, "end": 126.71, "text": "the escalation is getting worse and worse.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-008", "start": 127.13, "end": 131.21, "text": "So there's fear now that Israelis will strike the power plants of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-009", "start": 131.21, "end": 136.31, "text": "Iran, which is targeting now the civilian infrastructure of Iran.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-010", "start": 136.59, "end": 140.51, "text": "Iran has stated that in public,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-011", "start": 140.65, "end": 142.71, "text": "that if their power plants are attacked,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-012", "start": 142.95, "end": 147.95, "text": "then they will respond by targeting the energy infrastructure of the GCC.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-013", "start": 148.07, "end": 148.91, "text": "And possibly, they will also attack the energy infrastructure of Iran.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-014", "start": 148.91, "end": 150.87, "text": "And possibly, the desalination plants as well.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-015", "start": 151.17, "end": 153.25, "text": "And so right now, the GCC,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-016", "start": 153.51, "end": 158.41, "text": "especially the UAE, they're facing an existential crisis.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-017", "start": 158.87, "end": 162.85, "text": "The UAE has doubled down and said that they themselves want to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-018", "start": 162.85, "end": 165.37, "text": "remove the Iranian threat once and for all.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-019", "start": 165.71, "end": 167.77, "text": "And the Israelis are completely committed to the fight.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-020", "start": 167.97, "end": 168.47, "text": "So", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-021", "start": 168.47, "end": 171.89, "text": "it seems like all the different actors want this to escalate.", "word_count": 11 } ], "text_sha256": "81e08eee1639de3323eb94624078b292d3f49ddac9f2aac782b9fd3dec630e4f", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0003", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=107s", "time_label": "1:47", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0004", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "start": 168.47, "end": 171.89, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "", "word_count": 0, "timed_chunks": [], "text_sha256": "e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0004", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=168s", "time_label": "2:48", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0005", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "start": 172.47, "end": 223.07, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Now, you've become a bit of an internet celebrity because you have this ability to see things at a higher level than the rest of us. So while the rest of us are like, oh, he said this, maybe this is happening. And what about this? What do we think about this? You use game theory to understand it at a broader context, which I have found both comforting and terrifying at the same time. Can you respond to how the internet has responded to you, you know, on a personal level, but then also how are people actually then making choices in their lives based on what you say? Because I know for me, it's like, OK, we better, you know, think about what our plans are in our family. We better think about what is our emergency response. And so can you talk about some of the response to you and then also what's practical for the rest of us that are just watching this war in horror?", "word_count": 170, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-001", "start": 172.47, "end": 176.85, "text": "Now, you've become a bit of an internet celebrity because you have", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-002", "start": 176.85, "end": 180.91, "text": "this ability to see things at a higher level than the rest", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-003", "start": 180.91, "end": 181.23, "text": "of us.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-004", "start": 181.27, "end": 182.31, "text": "So while the rest of us are like,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-005", "start": 182.35, "end": 183.81, "text": "oh, he said this, maybe this is happening.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-006", "start": 183.93, "end": 184.51, "text": "And what about this?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-007", "start": 184.55, "end": 185.29, "text": "What do we think about this?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-008", "start": 185.53, "end": 189.99, "text": "You use game theory to understand it at a broader context,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-009", "start": 190.43, "end": 193.79, "text": "which I have found both comforting and terrifying at the same time.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-010", "start": 194.05, "end": 199.01, "text": "Can you respond to how the internet has responded to you,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-011", "start": 199.53, "end": 201.11, "text": "you know, on a personal level,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-012", "start": 201.15, "end": 205.63, "text": "but then also how are people actually then making choices in their", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-013", "start": 205.63, "end": 207.07, "text": "lives based on what you say?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-014", "start": 207.07, "end": 207.95, "text": "Because I know for me,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-015", "start": 207.99, "end": 209.47, "text": "it's like, OK, we better,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-016", "start": 209.51, "end": 212.81, "text": "you know, think about what our plans are in our family.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-017", "start": 212.89, "end": 215.13, "text": "We better think about what is our emergency response.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-018", "start": 215.41, "end": 218.87, "text": "And so can you talk about some of the response to you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-019", "start": 218.87, "end": 221.31, "text": "and then also what's practical for the rest", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-020", "start": 221.31, "end": 223.07, "text": "of us that are just watching this war in horror?", "word_count": 10 } ], "text_sha256": "83d30732fae7961a39ab41c27cc3a09fe2b2f23992f36017e3c78b93724f8e22", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0005", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=172s", "time_label": "2:52", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0006", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "start": 221.31, "end": 223.07, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "", "word_count": 0, "timed_chunks": [], "text_sha256": "e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0006", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=221s", "time_label": "3:41", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0007", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "start": 223.76, "end": 282.62, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Yeah, sure. So for the past two years, I've been developing a new system of predictive modeling where I take game theory and I make predictions about how world events will turn out. And by making these predictions, I can better refine my game theory model. And so two years ago, I made three predictions. The first prediction is that Trump would win the 2024 general election, become the 47th president of the United States. Second prediction is that he would initiate a war with Iran. And the third prediction is that the United States would lose this war and ultimately this would reshape the global order. So I did this. I did this as a thought experiment. I'm just a high school teacher in China. I'm trying to get my students excited in learning. I'm trying to increase their critical thinking skills. And I myself am curious about how the world works. So I developed this model. And to my surprise, it's actually panned out.", "word_count": 166, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-001", "start": 223.76, "end": 224.56, "text": "Yeah, sure.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-002", "start": 225, "end": 227.06, "text": "So for the past two years,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-003", "start": 227.24, "end": 231.82, "text": "I've been developing a new system of predictive modeling where I take", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-004", "start": 231.82, "end": 235.56, "text": "game theory and I make predictions about how world events will turn", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-005", "start": 235.56, "end": 237.42, "text": "out. And by making these predictions,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-006", "start": 237.6, "end": 240.34, "text": "I can better refine my game theory model.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-007", "start": 240.66, "end": 241.84, "text": "And so two years ago,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-008", "start": 241.9, "end": 242.98, "text": "I made three predictions.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-009", "start": 243.82, "end": 248.94, "text": "The first prediction is that Trump would win the 2024 general election,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-010", "start": 249.04, "end": 250.92, "text": "become the 47th president of the United States.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-011", "start": 251.08, "end": 255.14, "text": "Second prediction is that he would initiate a war with Iran.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-012", "start": 255.42, "end": 258.94, "text": "And the third prediction is that the United States would lose this", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-013", "start": 258.94, "end": 263.78, "text": "war and ultimately this would reshape the global order.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-014", "start": 264, "end": 265.7, "text": "So I did this.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-015", "start": 265.8, "end": 267.24, "text": "I did this as a thought experiment.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-016", "start": 267.86, "end": 270.44, "text": "I'm just a high school teacher in China.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-017", "start": 270.62, "end": 272.42, "text": "I'm trying to get my students excited in learning.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-018", "start": 272.58, "end": 275, "text": "I'm trying to increase their critical thinking skills.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-019", "start": 275.28, "end": 277.78, "text": "And I myself am curious about how the world works.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-020", "start": 277.9, "end": 278.96, "text": "So I developed this model.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-021", "start": 279.22, "end": 280.16, "text": "And to", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-022", "start": 280.16, "end": 282.62, "text": "my surprise, it's actually panned out.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "f55b6b842d79affafc57d8364d08f90198acb834c56842beb153b1835bb82aaa", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0007", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=223s", "time_label": "3:43", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0008", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "start": 282.86, "end": 344.34, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "And so I've received a lot of attention online. And there are two types of attention. The first is that there seems to be a coordinated spirit campaign against me, mainly by individuals who believe that I am maybe attacking Israel or threatening the Zionist project. And so there have been quite a number of very influential media figures that have come out and attacked me. I won't name their names, but everyone knows who they are. And it seems coordinated because it's the same talking points where they try to emulate me or try to... you know, satirize me by having a blackboard and then writing down some silly things and saying, hi, there you go. So they're trying to satirize my teaching style. And it all happened at once. So it seems coordinated to me. It's the same talking point where they think that I make up this stuff on the fly.", "word_count": 154, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-001", "start": 282.86, "end": 286.04, "text": "And so I've received a lot of attention online.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-002", "start": 286.32, "end": 287.44, "text": "And there are two types of attention.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-003", "start": 288.04, "end": 290.82, "text": "The first is that there seems to be a coordinated spirit campaign", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-004", "start": 290.82, "end": 299.98, "text": "against me, mainly by individuals who believe that I am maybe attacking", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-005", "start": 299.98, "end": 303.8, "text": "Israel or threatening the Zionist project.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-006", "start": 304.14, "end": 309.7, "text": "And so there have been quite a number of very influential media", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-007", "start": 309.7, "end": 311.58, "text": "figures that have come out and attacked me.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-008", "start": 311.76, "end": 313.06, "text": "I won't name their names,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-009", "start": 313.16, "end": 314.8, "text": "but everyone knows who they are.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-010", "start": 314.92, "end": 318.84, "text": "And it seems coordinated because it's the same talking points where they", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-011", "start": 318.84, "end": 323.52, "text": "try to emulate me or try to...", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-012", "start": 325.78, "end": 331.66, "text": "you know, satirize me by having a blackboard and then writing down", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-013", "start": 331.66, "end": 333.02, "text": "some silly things and saying,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-014", "start": 333.08, "end": 333.9, "text": "hi, there you go.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-015", "start": 334.1, "end": 336.44, "text": "So they're trying to satirize my teaching style.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-016", "start": 337.22, "end": 338.72, "text": "And it all happened at once.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-017", "start": 338.84, "end": 339.94, "text": "So it seems coordinated to me.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-018", "start": 340, "end": 343.06, "text": "It's the same talking point where they think that I make up", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-019", "start": 343.06, "end": 344.34, "text": "this stuff on the fly.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "81c02a2372a128633abe91c16f221a63a727aa44fa68efd47cf7d1719796a493", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0008", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=282s", "time_label": "4:42", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0009", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "start": 344.48, "end": 393.632, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "So that is the smear campaign. But there's also an organic anger directed at me. I think a lot of it is fear about how this war will turn out and anger at the fact that I'm sort of using a tragedy, a global tragedy, to make a name for myself. And I'm sympathetic towards these people. I mean, there are quite a few people who I deeply admire. People like David Icke. You know, I've been following David Icke for a number of years. And he's been a deep inspiration to me. But he himself has criticized me for maybe being part of a deep state or being part of a conspiracy in order to put me out there. And I think that's a really important question, agenda. Again, I'm just a random high school teacher in Beijing. I think a lot of it just comes from the confusion of how I was able to blow up so fast online.", "word_count": 161, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-001", "start": 344.48, "end": 346.88, "text": "So that is the smear campaign.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-002", "start": 347.22, "end": 350.34, "text": "But there's also an organic anger directed at me.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-003", "start": 350.48, "end": 354.38, "text": "I think a lot of it is fear about how this war", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-004", "start": 354.38, "end": 358.7, "text": "will turn out and anger at the fact that I'm sort of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-005", "start": 358.7, "end": 360.36, "text": "using a tragedy, a global tragedy,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-006", "start": 360.48, "end": 362.1, "text": "to make a name for myself.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-007", "start": 362.4, "end": 364.02, "text": "And I'm sympathetic towards these people.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-008", "start": 364.34, "end": 367.38, "text": "I mean, there are quite a few people who I deeply admire.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-009", "start": 368.3, "end": 369.4, "text": "People like David Icke.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-010", "start": 369.54, "end": 371.26, "text": "You know, I've been following David Icke for a number of years.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-011", "start": 371.68, "end": 373.66, "text": "And he's been a deep inspiration to me.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-012", "start": 374.04, "end": 380.54, "text": "But he himself has criticized me for maybe being part of a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-013", "start": 380.54, "end": 383.46, "text": "deep state or being part of a conspiracy in order to put", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-014", "start": 383.46, "end": 383.5, "text": "me out there.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-015", "start": 383.52, "end": 383.78, "text": "And I think that's a really important question,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-016", "start": 383.8, "end": 387.68, "text": "agenda. Again, I'm just a random high school teacher in Beijing.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-017", "start": 387.92, "end": 390.52, "text": "I think a lot of it just comes from the confusion of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-018", "start": 390.52, "end": 393.06, "text": "how I was able to blow up so fast", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-019", "start": 393.06, "end": 393.632, "text": "online.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "965ac28fbf9b581ec2b88fe5016c7669b63bcf3fa8b9a9893f1172a841425af6", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0009", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=344s", "time_label": "5:44", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0010", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "start": 393.632, "end": 447.94, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "I myself am also confused by the attention I've been getting. You know, when I first started this YouTube channel, it was mainly to try to build an online community where I can exchange my ideas with others. And my wife and I were really optimistic about the potential for the YouTube channel. We were really thinking, like, maybe in two months' time or two years' time, we would have 5,000 members. And that would be it, 5,000 members. Now it's over 2 million. So I'm just flabbergasted by the attention. And I know that a lot of people who've been working in this space for a number of years trying to educate and enlighten the public, people like David Icke, but also people like Jay Dyer, they might be confused as to how this happened. I myself, I'm confused as well. So I'm just trying to make sense of what's happening.", "word_count": 154, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-001", "start": 393.632, "end": 399.92, "text": "I myself am also confused by the attention I've been getting.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-002", "start": 400.08, "end": 401.54, "text": "You know, when I first started this YouTube channel,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-003", "start": 401.68, "end": 405.8, "text": "it was mainly to try to build an online community where I", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-004", "start": 405.8, "end": 407.08, "text": "can exchange my ideas with others.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-005", "start": 407.32, "end": 410.76, "text": "And my wife and I were really optimistic about the potential for", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-006", "start": 410.76, "end": 411.34, "text": "the YouTube channel.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-007", "start": 411.48, "end": 412.92, "text": "We were really thinking, like,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-008", "start": 412.92, "end": 416.04, "text": "maybe in two months' time or two years' time,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-009", "start": 416.12, "end": 417.48, "text": "we would have 5,000 members.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-010", "start": 417.62, "end": 418.3, "text": "And that would be it,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-011", "start": 418.34, "end": 419.28, "text": "5,000 members.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-012", "start": 419.78, "end": 421, "text": "Now it's over 2 million.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-013", "start": 422.9, "end": 426.46, "text": "So I'm just flabbergasted by the attention.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-014", "start": 427.56, "end": 432, "text": "And I know that a lot of people who've been working in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-015", "start": 432, "end": 435.04, "text": "this space for a number of years trying to educate and enlighten", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-016", "start": 435.04, "end": 436.44, "text": "the public, people like David Icke,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-017", "start": 436.54, "end": 438.1, "text": "but also people like Jay Dyer,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-018", "start": 439.22, "end": 442.24, "text": "they might be confused as to how this happened.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-019", "start": 442.34, "end": 443.86, "text": "I myself, I'm confused as well.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-020", "start": 444.12, "end": 447.94, "text": "So I'm just trying to make sense of what's happening.", "word_count": 10 } ], "text_sha256": "c48f477ca10e054e7c2ec8759a03b26865e175750911ec192962c4dcbe08a707", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0010", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=393s", "time_label": "6:33", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0011", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "start": 448.32, "end": 464.42, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "So to be clear, you're not part of the deep state. You're not part of... I've seen some people being critical saying he's part of the Chinese Communist Party and therefore he has an agenda. He's not being critical of China. He's being critical of Israel. What do you say to that?", "word_count": 52, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-001", "start": 448.32, "end": 451.16, "text": "So to be clear, you're not part of the deep state.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-002", "start": 451.68, "end": 453.38, "text": "You're not part of...", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-003", "start": 453.78, "end": 457.4, "text": "I've seen some people being critical saying he's part of the Chinese", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-004", "start": 457.4, "end": 460.24, "text": "Communist Party and therefore he has an agenda.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-005", "start": 460.46, "end": 461.94, "text": "He's not being critical of China.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-006", "start": 462.04, "end": 463.4, "text": "He's being critical of Israel.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-007", "start": 463.52, "end": 464.42, "text": "What do you say to that?", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "a6c9495c02557888b63917d478cc368cc059d16b4475944b750403d60f25cc59", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0011", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=448s", "time_label": "7:28", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0012", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "start": 465.06, "end": 511.28, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Okay, first of all, I've been very mute about China. And the reality is that I live and work in China. If I were to say anything offensive, about China, then my school would get into a lot of trouble. And quite frankly, they might have to fire me. I have a family in China. I have three young kids. So I choose not to say anything offensive about China. Quite honestly, if I had nothing to say about China, I would say them because it would make me look good in China. And quite honestly, I could make quite a lot of money for myself if I became a fan boy of the Communist Party in China and parodied, you know, the Communist Party talking points around the world. But I don't want to do that because I don't want to be a propagandist. I want to be an educator. So I've chosen to remain silent about China. So", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-001", "start": 465.06, "end": 467.98, "text": "Okay, first of all, I've been very mute about China.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-002", "start": 468.08, "end": 470.88, "text": "And the reality is that I live and work in China.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-003", "start": 471.18, "end": 472.82, "text": "If I were to say anything offensive,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-004", "start": 472.82, "end": 476.04, "text": "about China, then my school would get into a lot of trouble.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-005", "start": 476.22, "end": 478.98, "text": "And quite frankly, they might have to fire me.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-006", "start": 479.06, "end": 480.6, "text": "I have a family in China.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-007", "start": 480.62, "end": 482.2, "text": "I have three young kids.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-008", "start": 482.58, "end": 486.02, "text": "So I choose not to say anything offensive about China.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-009", "start": 486.24, "end": 488.94, "text": "Quite honestly, if I had nothing to say about China,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-010", "start": 489.08, "end": 491.72, "text": "I would say them because it would make me look good in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-011", "start": 491.72, "end": 496.82, "text": "China. And quite honestly, I could make quite a lot of money", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-012", "start": 496.82, "end": 499.84, "text": "for myself if I became a fan boy of the Communist Party", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-013", "start": 499.84, "end": 501.98, "text": "in China and parodied, you know,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-014", "start": 501.98, "end": 503.9, "text": "the Communist Party talking points around the world.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-015", "start": 504.36, "end": 506.92, "text": "But I don't want to do that because I don't want to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-016", "start": 506.92, "end": 507.48, "text": "be a propagandist.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-017", "start": 507.54, "end": 508.34, "text": "I want to be an educator.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-018", "start": 508.68, "end": 510.76, "text": "So I've chosen to remain silent about China.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-019", "start": 511, "end": 511.28, "text": "So", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "99ac4b8853ac92a7f2bd740452fbfdb65d0e51abdc72b76609091a8b8bb9643a", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0012", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=465s", "time_label": "7:45", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0013", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "start": 511.28, "end": 524.52, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "I think like the criticism of me about being mute, my criticism of the Chinese Communist Party is correct. But it's just because I'm working in the reality that is China. Okay. Yeah.", "word_count": 33, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-001", "start": 511.28, "end": 514.4, "text": "I think like the criticism of me about being mute,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-002", "start": 514.5, "end": 517.56, "text": "my criticism of the Chinese Communist Party is correct.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-003", "start": 517.8, "end": 522.86, "text": "But it's just because I'm working in the reality that is China.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-004", "start": 522.98, "end": 524.52, "text": "Okay. Yeah.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "f7503395a647fa6436cdb8c72ab4b7b9f02767b1003227913e70c825f31e2cb1", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0013", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=511s", "time_label": "8:31", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0014", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "start": 524.74, "end": 552.38, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Yeah. Well, thank you for that. And yeah, I wanted to thank you, Natalie, for bringing that up. And we wanted to address that kind of off the top because I know you've been getting hit really hard with certain people on social media. So thank you for that. Can we talk about your predictive model though? I want to get back to this war and what you're seeing play out here. I mean, forget like internet personalities, you know, criticize. I want to talk about there's thousands of people being killed in a war that is reshaping the global world order right now.", "word_count": 104, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-001", "start": 524.74, "end": 527.22, "text": "Yeah. Well, thank you for that.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-002", "start": 527.34, "end": 529.08, "text": "And yeah, I wanted to thank you,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-003", "start": 529.1, "end": 530.22, "text": "Natalie, for bringing that up.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-004", "start": 530.22, "end": 532.58, "text": "And we wanted to address that kind of off the top because", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-005", "start": 532.58, "end": 535.44, "text": "I know you've been getting hit really hard with certain people on", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-006", "start": 535.44, "end": 536.14, "text": "social media.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-007", "start": 536.32, "end": 537.1, "text": "So thank you for that.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-008", "start": 537.2, "end": 538.94, "text": "Can we talk about your predictive model though?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-009", "start": 539, "end": 542.02, "text": "I want to get back to this war and what you're seeing", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-010", "start": 542.02, "end": 542.82, "text": "play out here.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-011", "start": 543, "end": 545.22, "text": "I mean, forget like internet personalities,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-012", "start": 545.46, "end": 546.08, "text": "you know, criticize.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-013", "start": 546.14, "end": 549.2, "text": "I want to talk about there's thousands of people being killed in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-014", "start": 549.2, "end": 552.38, "text": "a war that is reshaping the global world order right now.", "word_count": 11 } ], "text_sha256": "cae1e4b006df4d16483fdb5507861c72d8fc2c40903721dc8a5c22e15ea07e16", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0014", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=524s", "time_label": "8:44", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0015", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "start": 552.5, "end": 590.66, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And if I may, I'd like to add this because we also are parents of three. And when I watch your content, it seems very much not about what you want to happen because we also have three kids. This is not the world we want to leave them. You've said many times, I hope that I'm wrong. So I don't hear in your predictions, a personal preference or a deep satisfaction of evil or anything. I mean, I feel kindred of the way we report news. We hate, we don't like this. We don't want it to be this way. But if you could tell us, give it to us straight, how you see it. And we'll put aside how we feel about what we want to happen.", "word_count": 129, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-001", "start": 552.5, "end": 555.4, "text": "And if I may, I'd like to add this because we also", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-002", "start": 555.4, "end": 556.34, "text": "are parents of three.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-003", "start": 556.8, "end": 558.34, "text": "And when I watch your content,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-004", "start": 558.36, "end": 562.32, "text": "it seems very much not about what you want to happen because", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-005", "start": 562.32, "end": 563.9, "text": "we also have three kids.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-006", "start": 564.04, "end": 566.44, "text": "This is not the world we want to leave them.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-007", "start": 566.68, "end": 569.18, "text": "You've said many times, I hope that I'm wrong.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-008", "start": 569.64, "end": 572.36, "text": "So I don't hear in your predictions,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-009", "start": 572.38, "end": 577.1, "text": "a personal preference or a deep satisfaction of evil or anything.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-010", "start": 577.34, "end": 580.18, "text": "I mean, I feel kindred of the way we report news.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-011", "start": 580.28, "end": 581.98, "text": "We hate, we don't like this.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-012", "start": 582.04, "end": 583.62, "text": "We don't want it to be this way.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-013", "start": 583.74, "end": 585.04, "text": "But if you could tell us,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-014", "start": 585.06, "end": 585.78, "text": "give it to us straight,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-015", "start": 585.84, "end": 586.86, "text": "how you see it.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-016", "start": 586.86, "end": 590.26, "text": "And we'll put aside how we feel about what we want to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-017", "start": 590.26, "end": 590.66, "text": "happen.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "8b16b932d0132f250393cebd31bb8d2a23376f7966367b2c2dffe16f6e8f98a5", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0015", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=552s", "time_label": "9:12", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0016", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "start": 592.12, "end": 643.46, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Yeah, so thank you so much for that, Natalie. So, you know, when my predictions are correct, you know, on February 28th, the Americans and Israelis attacked Tehran and this launched the war that we are in now. I couldn't sleep for two weeks. You know, I mean, my prediction had panned out, but I was angry. I was frustrated. I was anxious because as you point out, I have three kids and I want a better future for them. But as a parent, I also have responsibility to be truthful to them and to work hard to build a better future. So my hope is that if this predictive model is correct and people start to adopt this predictive model, then that gives us more agency over human events. And this allows our children to build a better world. And that's what drives me. My love for my children, my desire to request to them a better world that they have agency over.", "word_count": 164, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-001", "start": 592.12, "end": 593.92, "text": "Yeah, so thank you so much for that,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-002", "start": 594.04, "end": 597.2, "text": "Natalie. So, you know, when my predictions are correct,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-003", "start": 597.58, "end": 599.86, "text": "you know, on February 28th,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-004", "start": 599.86, "end": 603.88, "text": "the Americans and Israelis attacked Tehran and this launched the war that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-005", "start": 603.88, "end": 604.58, "text": "we are in now.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-006", "start": 604.82, "end": 606.22, "text": "I couldn't sleep for two weeks.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-007", "start": 606.42, "end": 608.42, "text": "You know, I mean, my prediction had panned out,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-008", "start": 608.52, "end": 609.46, "text": "but I was angry.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-009", "start": 609.58, "end": 610.28, "text": "I was frustrated.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-010", "start": 610.46, "end": 612.48, "text": "I was anxious because as you point out,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-011", "start": 612.58, "end": 615.48, "text": "I have three kids and I want a better future for them.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-012", "start": 616.08, "end": 619.98, "text": "But as a parent, I also have responsibility to be truthful to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-013", "start": 619.98, "end": 622.64, "text": "them and to work hard to build a better future.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-014", "start": 623, "end": 628, "text": "So my hope is that if this predictive model is correct and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-015", "start": 628, "end": 629.92, "text": "people start to adopt this predictive model,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-016", "start": 630.16, "end": 633.3, "text": "then that gives us more agency over human events.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-017", "start": 633.52, "end": 635.9, "text": "And this allows our children to build a better world.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-018", "start": 636.06, "end": 637.08, "text": "And that's what drives me.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-019", "start": 637.12, "end": 638.3, "text": "My love for my children,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-020", "start": 638.5, "end": 642.26, "text": "my desire to request to them a better world that", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-021", "start": 642.26, "end": 643.46, "text": "they have agency over.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "2eeca0918f4b6b4f48495879af495562258f98fd59e8fdd42e2954b0734a6fd3", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0016", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=592s", "time_label": "9:52", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0017", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "start": 643.76, "end": 698.44, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "So, you know, we have 8 billion people in this world and most people don't know what's going on and they choose to put their head in the sand. And what I'm trying to do with my YouTube channel is trying to say to people that you do matter and your choices will affect the outcome of the world. And so we need to educate ourselves. We need to focus on what we can do. And just by doing these two simple things, we can change the world for the better. So that's what motivates me. So as for my predictive model, I use three mechanisms. So the first is game theory. And the idea of game theory is I assume that you have these different players in the world. So United States, Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE. And they have different interests and they have different strengths. And they are going to look for an optimal strategy in order to advance their interests.", "word_count": 164, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-001", "start": 643.76, "end": 647.24, "text": "So, you know, we have 8 billion people in this world and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-002", "start": 647.24, "end": 650.02, "text": "most people don't know what's going on and they choose to put", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-003", "start": 650.02, "end": 650.92, "text": "their head in the sand.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-004", "start": 651.18, "end": 654.08, "text": "And what I'm trying to do with my YouTube channel is trying", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-005", "start": 654.08, "end": 658.1, "text": "to say to people that you do matter and your choices will", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-006", "start": 658.1, "end": 660.9, "text": "affect the outcome of the world.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-007", "start": 661.28, "end": 662.9, "text": "And so we need to educate ourselves.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-008", "start": 663.24, "end": 666.38, "text": "We need to focus on what we can do.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-009", "start": 666.6, "end": 668.54, "text": "And just by doing these two simple things,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-010", "start": 668.72, "end": 670.28, "text": "we can change the world for the better.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-011", "start": 670.38, "end": 672.02, "text": "So that's what motivates me.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-012", "start": 672.24, "end": 674.2, "text": "So as for my predictive model,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-013", "start": 675.06, "end": 678.9, "text": "I use three mechanisms.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-014", "start": 678.9, "end": 680.64, "text": "So the first is game theory.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-015", "start": 680.8, "end": 684.16, "text": "And the idea of game theory is I assume that you have", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-016", "start": 684.16, "end": 686.86, "text": "these different players in the world.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-017", "start": 686.94, "end": 689.04, "text": "So United States, Israel, Iran,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-018", "start": 689.16, "end": 690.54, "text": "Saudi Arabia, UAE.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-019", "start": 690.82, "end": 693.86, "text": "And they have different interests and they have different strengths.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-020", "start": 694.08, "end": 695.36, "text": "And they are going to look for an", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-021", "start": 695.36, "end": 698.44, "text": "optimal strategy in order to advance their interests.", "word_count": 8 } ], "text_sha256": "779d3f854d581a795c56273aec032387439dbf51c58ef6c30015de963bd70362", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0017", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=643s", "time_label": "10:43", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0018", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "start": 698.76, "end": 753.72, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "So as we know, a lot of what's happening in the Middle East is driven by Israel's desire to achieve the Greater Israel Project. That, you know, right now Israel is being dominated by religious fanatics who believe that it is their God -given right to control all the land from the Nile to the Euphrates. And that's why we're seeing this war in the Middle East. And because of Israel's aggression, Iran has to respond in a certain way. The United States is drawn into this war and the United States has to respond in a certain way. So that's game theory. The problem with game theory is often you're not allowed information or you don't have access to information of the key players. You don't know how they're thinking. You just make assumptions. So you need other mechanisms in order to validate your theory. And these two other mechanisms are historical patterns and eschatology.", "word_count": 156, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-001", "start": 698.76, "end": 701.58, "text": "So as we know, a lot of what's happening in the Middle", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-002", "start": 701.58, "end": 706.4, "text": "East is driven by Israel's desire to achieve the Greater Israel Project.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-003", "start": 707.1, "end": 710.86, "text": "That, you know, right now Israel is being dominated by religious fanatics", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-004", "start": 710.86, "end": 715.44, "text": "who believe that it is their God -given right to control all", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-005", "start": 715.44, "end": 717.38, "text": "the land from the Nile to the Euphrates.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-006", "start": 717.66, "end": 721.2, "text": "And that's why we're seeing this war in the Middle East.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-007", "start": 721.38, "end": 723.4, "text": "And because of Israel's aggression,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-008", "start": 723.72, "end": 725.24, "text": "Iran has to respond in a certain way.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-009", "start": 725.42, "end": 727.66, "text": "The United States is drawn into this war and the United States", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-010", "start": 727.66, "end": 731.9, "text": "has to respond in a certain way.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-011", "start": 732.1, "end": 733.56, "text": "So that's game theory.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-012", "start": 733.74, "end": 738.56, "text": "The problem with game theory is often you're not allowed information or", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-013", "start": 738.56, "end": 740.84, "text": "you don't have access to information of the key players.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-014", "start": 740.96, "end": 743.4, "text": "You don't know how they're thinking.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-015", "start": 743.68, "end": 744.8, "text": "You just make assumptions.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-016", "start": 745.18, "end": 749.66, "text": "So you need other mechanisms in order to validate your theory.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-017", "start": 749.9, "end": 751.1, "text": "And these two other mechanisms are", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-018", "start": 751.1, "end": 753.72, "text": "historical patterns and eschatology.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "ae14d57516e04ee3f064135b2dac022d5217d183ce65578427f520d0fccf48bb", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0018", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=698s", "time_label": "11:38", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0019", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "start": 754.16, "end": 815.26, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Historical patterns just means can we think about previous wars and compare, contrast how this war will play out based on previous wars? And so what I've done is I've looked at the Vietnam War I've looked at the Peloponnesian War where Athens invaded Sicily. I've looked at the Nazi Germany invasion of Russia. And by looking at these wars I'm able to figure out how this war might progress. And the third mechanism is eschatology which is to say that the people involved whether it's Iranians or the Israelis or the Americans these are very religious people who believe that they're doing this for God. They're doing this to build a better world. And so once you understand their eschatology once you understand their religious worldview you can better understand their motivations and their strategy moving forward. So then you have like three different strands. You have game theory eschatology and historical patterning. And if", "word_count": 156, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-001", "start": 754.16, "end": 760.12, "text": "Historical patterns just means can we think about previous wars and compare,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-002", "start": 760.2, "end": 765.7, "text": "contrast how this war will play out based on previous wars?", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-003", "start": 765.92, "end": 768.18, "text": "And so what I've done is I've looked at the Vietnam War", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-004", "start": 768.2, "end": 772.64, "text": "I've looked at the Peloponnesian War where Athens invaded Sicily.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-005", "start": 772.94, "end": 776.36, "text": "I've looked at the Nazi Germany invasion of Russia.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-006", "start": 776.9, "end": 781.42, "text": "And by looking at these wars I'm able to figure out how", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-007", "start": 781.42, "end": 782.52, "text": "this war might progress.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-008", "start": 782.94, "end": 787.48, "text": "And the third mechanism is eschatology which is to say that the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-009", "start": 787.48, "end": 792.58, "text": "people involved whether it's Iranians or the Israelis or the Americans these", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-010", "start": 792.58, "end": 797.24, "text": "are very religious people who believe that they're doing this for God.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-011", "start": 798.02, "end": 799.72, "text": "They're doing this to build a better world.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-012", "start": 799.94, "end": 803.16, "text": "And so once you understand their eschatology once you understand their religious", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-013", "start": 803.16, "end": 808.06, "text": "worldview you can better understand their motivations and their strategy moving forward.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-014", "start": 808.3, "end": 810.42, "text": "So then you have like three different strands.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-015", "start": 810.68, "end": 814.48, "text": "You have game theory eschatology and historical patterning.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-016", "start": 814.68, "end": 815.26, "text": "And if", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "a0e3d5952c051301a5723f8cda3f17130ea749bfb9208ab9d89425ee36154bce", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0019", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=754s", "time_label": "12:34", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0020", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "start": 815.26, "end": 822.04, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "you're able to figure out where these three converge together you are then able to make accurate predictions about how things should progress.", "word_count": 23, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-001", "start": 815.26, "end": 819.6, "text": "you're able to figure out where these three converge together you are", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-002", "start": 819.6, "end": 822.04, "text": "then able to make accurate predictions about how things should progress.", "word_count": 11 } ], "text_sha256": "9bab8edd8e38024cc958ed4ea625906587f9aa379797e17374434ea2eac8c330", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0020", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=815s", "time_label": "13:35", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0021", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "start": 823.23, "end": 865.91, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Now you've said Iran's edge in all of this I believe and if I'm misquoting you please forgive me is escalation control. Like they so we were talking about the escalation ladder maybe you can lay that out because I think it's very when people see that ladder the escalation war ladder it's we've seen it all before. We've seen it play out in Iraq we've seen it play out in Afghanistan and I saw a meme this weekend where someone said Clayton you know the problem with three day wars is that they tend to last five years. And I thought that just that just really hit it. So anyway you make the point that Iran has been able to control the escalation control. What exactly does that mean in terms of the United States and Israel's plan to actually escalate this war?", "word_count": 144, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-001", "start": 823.23, "end": 826.45, "text": "Now you've said Iran's edge in all of this I believe and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-002", "start": 826.45, "end": 829.81, "text": "if I'm misquoting you please forgive me is escalation control.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-003", "start": 830.15, "end": 833.41, "text": "Like they so we were talking about the escalation ladder maybe you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-004", "start": 833.41, "end": 836.35, "text": "can lay that out because I think it's very when people see", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-005", "start": 836.35, "end": 840.17, "text": "that ladder the escalation war ladder it's we've seen it all before.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-006", "start": 840.29, "end": 842.71, "text": "We've seen it play out in Iraq we've seen it play out", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-007", "start": 842.71, "end": 846.13, "text": "in Afghanistan and I saw a meme this weekend where someone said", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-008", "start": 846.13, "end": 849.01, "text": "Clayton you know the problem with three day wars is that they", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-009", "start": 849.01, "end": 850.19, "text": "tend to last five years.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-010", "start": 850.55, "end": 853.69, "text": "And I thought that just that just really hit it.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-011", "start": 853.75, "end": 856.09, "text": "So anyway you make the point that Iran has been able to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-012", "start": 856.09, "end": 859.39, "text": "control the escalation control.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-013", "start": 859.85, "end": 863.23, "text": "What exactly does that mean in terms of the United States and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-014", "start": 863.23, "end": 865.91, "text": "Israel's plan to actually escalate this war?", "word_count": 7 } ], "text_sha256": "52b5dc611dcd9f9208c432fb96da62d4b4ae536373026fc95822329f91a5be7d", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0021", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=823s", "time_label": "13:43", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0022", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "start": 866.75, "end": 922.19, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Right. So the escalation ladder is just the idea that once you start a fight it develops its own momentum its own logic. You can't really stop it. So no two guys go into an argument thinking that they'll actually exchange punches. But what happens is they argue then they get emotional they push each other then they hit each other they pull a knife then they pull a gun. Okay. So this is the idea of escalation ladder. Now according to this theory the United States and Israel have escalation dominance because they can move up far higher than Iran in the escalation ladder because the United States and Israel have access to nuclear weapons. Right. And Iran doesn't. So in theory the United States and Israel have more options than Iran. But if you've ever been in a fight what you recognize is that the weaker opponent is forced to be more strategic to be much more flexible to have more control over the situation.", "word_count": 167, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-001", "start": 866.75, "end": 870.99, "text": "Right. So the escalation ladder is just the idea that once you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-002", "start": 870.99, "end": 874.45, "text": "start a fight it develops its own momentum its own logic.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-003", "start": 874.55, "end": 875.47, "text": "You can't really stop it.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-004", "start": 875.57, "end": 880.03, "text": "So no two guys go into an argument thinking that they'll actually", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-005", "start": 880.03, "end": 880.99, "text": "exchange punches.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-006", "start": 881.21, "end": 884.81, "text": "But what happens is they argue then they get emotional they push", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-007", "start": 884.81, "end": 888.31, "text": "each other then they hit each other they pull a knife then", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-008", "start": 888.31, "end": 888.85, "text": "they pull a gun.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-009", "start": 889.07, "end": 890.79, "text": "Okay. So this is the idea of escalation ladder.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-010", "start": 891.11, "end": 895.07, "text": "Now according to this theory the United States and Israel have escalation", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-011", "start": 895.07, "end": 899.19, "text": "dominance because they can move up far higher than Iran in the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-012", "start": 899.19, "end": 903.25, "text": "escalation ladder because the United States and Israel have access to nuclear", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-013", "start": 903.25, "end": 904.45, "text": "weapons. Right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-014", "start": 904.55, "end": 905.33, "text": "And Iran doesn't.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-015", "start": 905.39, "end": 910.29, "text": "So in theory the United States and Israel have more options than", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-016", "start": 910.29, "end": 914.03, "text": "Iran. But if you've ever been in a fight what you recognize", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-017", "start": 914.03, "end": 919.19, "text": "is that the weaker opponent is forced to be more strategic to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-018", "start": 919.19, "end": 920.47, "text": "be much more flexible", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-019", "start": 920.47, "end": 922.19, "text": "to have more control over the situation.", "word_count": 7 } ], "text_sha256": "d4fe554732b3b7496abe91411b644ec4d97a904febcecdd49831cab77bd98d2c", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0022", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=866s", "time_label": "14:26", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0023", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "start": 922.55, "end": 976.89, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "So I did a lot of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu before and in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu it's all about maintaining calm maintaining control. If you are able to maintain calm control you can even defeat a bigger opponent who is stronger and heavier than you are. So what we're seeing in this war is the Iranians are able to calibrate their strategy far more effectively than the Israelis and the Americans. The Americans use something called a shock and awe strategy where they go and blow things up. Right. So the Israelis if they want to assassinate the Al -Atul Khamenei or Ali Rajani what they do is blow up 10 blocks. Okay. It's devastating but it's effective. It's blunt. The Iranians on the other hand are able to calibrate their strikes so like if they're able to target a perhaps a military base in Bahrain they're able to target Mossad center in Israel.", "word_count": 153, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-001", "start": 922.55, "end": 926.75, "text": "So I did a lot of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu before and in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-002", "start": 926.75, "end": 931.35, "text": "Brazilian Jiu Jitsu it's all about maintaining calm maintaining control.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-003", "start": 931.69, "end": 934.77, "text": "If you are able to maintain calm control you can even defeat", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-004", "start": 934.77, "end": 939.81, "text": "a bigger opponent who is stronger and heavier than you are.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-005", "start": 939.95, "end": 944.47, "text": "So what we're seeing in this war is the Iranians are able", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-006", "start": 944.47, "end": 947.85, "text": "to calibrate their strategy far more effectively than the Israelis and the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-007", "start": 947.85, "end": 951.13, "text": "Americans. The Americans use something called a shock and awe strategy where", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-008", "start": 951.13, "end": 952.19, "text": "they go and blow things up.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-009", "start": 952.37, "end": 956.15, "text": "Right. So the Israelis if they want to assassinate the Al -Atul", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-010", "start": 956.15, "end": 960.91, "text": "Khamenei or Ali Rajani what they do is blow up 10 blocks.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-011", "start": 961.17, "end": 963.07, "text": "Okay. It's devastating but it's effective.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-012", "start": 963.23, "end": 963.61, "text": "It's blunt.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-013", "start": 963.87, "end": 967.19, "text": "The Iranians on the other hand are able to calibrate their strikes", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-014", "start": 967.19, "end": 972.79, "text": "so like if they're able to target a perhaps a military base", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-015", "start": 972.79, "end": 976.89, "text": "in Bahrain they're able to target Mossad center in Israel.", "word_count": 10 } ], "text_sha256": "abe8862d74e9e0aebdb49a7d176ffba34cac8d61677b9c1553998c05a5e67dcc", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0023", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=922s", "time_label": "15:22", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0024", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "start": 977.13, "end": 1038.27, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "And so by doing that what issue what Iran is able to demonstrate is confidence in its arsenal. It's able to maintain diplomacy political diplomacy as well as global public opinion. They're also able to divide and conquer the allies. Right. So they don't want the entire GCC teaming up with Israel and United States. So they just want to target specific areas. So for example military bases. They don't actually want to target energy infrastructure because then that might cause Saudi Arabia to declare war on Iran. So what we're seeing these past few weeks is whereas Israel and the United States are choosing a blunt instrument shock and awe just blow things up. The Iranians are being very strategic. They're being very calculating. Another example of course is the Strait of Hormuz where Iran is able to determine who's able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz therefore not impacting the global economy as much as it could.", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-001", "start": 977.13, "end": 980.97, "text": "And so by doing that what issue what Iran is able to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-002", "start": 980.97, "end": 983.25, "text": "demonstrate is confidence in its arsenal.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-003", "start": 983.43, "end": 989.49, "text": "It's able to maintain diplomacy political diplomacy as well as global public", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-004", "start": 989.49, "end": 994.41, "text": "opinion. They're also able to divide and conquer the allies.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-005", "start": 994.65, "end": 998.95, "text": "Right. So they don't want the entire GCC teaming up with Israel", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-006", "start": 998.95, "end": 1000.57, "text": "and United States.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-007", "start": 1000.67, "end": 1004.85, "text": "So they just want to target specific areas.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-008", "start": 1005.49, "end": 1007.17, "text": "So for example military bases.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-009", "start": 1007.43, "end": 1010.83, "text": "They don't actually want to target energy infrastructure because then that might", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-010", "start": 1010.83, "end": 1013.17, "text": "cause Saudi Arabia to declare war on Iran.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-011", "start": 1013.87, "end": 1018.39, "text": "So what we're seeing these past few weeks is whereas Israel and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-012", "start": 1018.39, "end": 1021.93, "text": "the United States are choosing a blunt instrument shock and awe just", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-013", "start": 1021.93, "end": 1022.55, "text": "blow things up.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-014", "start": 1022.65, "end": 1025.09, "text": "The Iranians are being very strategic.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-015", "start": 1025.37, "end": 1026.41, "text": "They're being very calculating.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-016", "start": 1026.67, "end": 1030.81, "text": "Another example of course is the Strait of Hormuz where Iran is", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-017", "start": 1031.1, "end": 1034.87, "text": "able to determine who's able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-018", "start": 1035.14, "end": 1038.27, "text": "therefore not impacting the global economy as much as it could.", "word_count": 11 } ], "text_sha256": "d26c7dcade8e71a7838391d2b0794fddadfbc8c687404e88ed3c276bd52a6161", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0024", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=977s", "time_label": "16:17", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0025", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "start": 1038.87, "end": 1074.07, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Now what's frustrating for me is that the United States and Israel can escalate in these horrific ways and there's no international consequences. So they can destroy Gaza en masse. They can hit a school of young girls and there's no consequence for it. So as an American it's infuriating because there should be some consequences so that we never do this again. And the world is letting us and I'm very confused why that is. So can you explain that variable in your game theory?", "word_count": 86, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-001", "start": 1038.87, "end": 1044.01, "text": "Now what's frustrating for me is that the United States and Israel", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-002", "start": 1044.01, "end": 1048.87, "text": "can escalate in these horrific ways and there's no international consequences.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-003", "start": 1049.39, "end": 1053.29, "text": "So they can destroy Gaza en masse.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-004", "start": 1053.61, "end": 1058.95, "text": "They can hit a school of young girls and there's no consequence", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-005", "start": 1058.95, "end": 1059.65, "text": "for it.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-006", "start": 1059.69, "end": 1063.83, "text": "So as an American it's infuriating because there should be some consequences", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-007", "start": 1064.11, "end": 1066.23, "text": "so that we never do this again.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-008", "start": 1067.31, "end": 1071.11, "text": "And the world is letting us and I'm very confused why that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-009", "start": 1071.11, "end": 1074.07, "text": "is. So can you explain that variable in your game theory?", "word_count": 11 } ], "text_sha256": "b050d5d1d6a15fff2da19900fbd5f8159a0465b5bb7b834377df5c4b95925902", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0025", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=1038s", "time_label": "17:18", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0026", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "start": 1074.71, "end": 1142.55, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Right. So there is actually a major consequence. A major consequence is the morale of your population which affects your will to fight. Right? So if people believe that it is a good cause they are willing to commit themselves to the fight. They're willing to make the sacrifices necessary to win the war. Right? So what we're seeing is look these soldiers these American soldiers are not enthusiastic about this war. There were these American commanders who told their soldiers that this war against Iran is because God ordained Trump to achieve the second coming of the war. And what you had was dozens of complaints filed against these commanders. You're seeing fires break out in Gerald R. Ford's supercarrier. Right? So Gerald R. Ford's supercarrier came into the theater hoping to have a mutual impact and then a fire broke out and then Gerald Ford is now forced to retreat back into the Mediterranean. And apparently the rumor", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-001", "start": 1074.71, "end": 1076.87, "text": "Right. So there is actually a major consequence.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-002", "start": 1077.15, "end": 1081.17, "text": "A major consequence is the morale of your population which affects your", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-003", "start": 1081.17, "end": 1081.97, "text": "will to fight.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-004", "start": 1082.13, "end": 1086.23, "text": "Right? So if people believe that it is a good cause they", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-005", "start": 1086.23, "end": 1089.25, "text": "are willing to commit themselves to the fight.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-006", "start": 1089.35, "end": 1093.35, "text": "They're willing to make the sacrifices necessary to win the war.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-007", "start": 1093.53, "end": 1100.75, "text": "Right? So what we're seeing is look these soldiers these American soldiers", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-008", "start": 1100.75, "end": 1103.27, "text": "are not enthusiastic about this war.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-009", "start": 1103.57, "end": 1108.17, "text": "There were these American commanders who told their soldiers that this war", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-010", "start": 1108.17, "end": 1115.25, "text": "against Iran is because God ordained Trump to achieve the second coming", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-011", "start": 1116.61, "end": 1116.69, "text": "of the war.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-012", "start": 1116.69, "end": 1121.19, "text": "And what you had was dozens of complaints filed against these commanders.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-013", "start": 1121.55, "end": 1126.79, "text": "You're seeing fires break out in Gerald R.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-014", "start": 1126.81, "end": 1127.75, "text": "Ford's supercarrier.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-015", "start": 1127.89, "end": 1128.99, "text": "Right? So Gerald R.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-016", "start": 1129.05, "end": 1135.05, "text": "Ford's supercarrier came into the theater hoping to have a mutual impact", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-017", "start": 1135.35, "end": 1138.67, "text": "and then a fire broke out and then Gerald Ford is now", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-018", "start": 1138.67, "end": 1140.83, "text": "forced to retreat back into the Mediterranean.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-019", "start": 1141.21, "end": 1142.55, "text": "And apparently the rumor", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "0d32670e73d666c0e688f2a7a74430a211cc85233fa32e74c3c34189c5cb46bf", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0026", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=1074s", "time_label": "17:54", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0027", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "start": 1142.55, "end": 1206.25, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "is that Gerald Ford is now out of commission for the next two years because the damage was so extensive. And the theory is there's an investigation as to whether the sailors deliberately set fire in a laundry room to decapitate the supercarrier. So you're seeing low morale among American soldiers. First day of the war what happened? All the American soldiers changed into civilian clothes and then fled into hotels. Popular opinion in America only about 40 % of the population support this war and this is the lowest support in the past 20, 30 years. So the consequence of not having a strategy of not having a purpose of not having a rationale means low morale among your population. And this is important because eventually if Trump wants to win this war he needs a ground invasion. And already we're seeing additional troops being deployed to the Persian Gulf and a lot of people assume they're planning an amphibious landing somewhere.", "word_count": 163, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-001", "start": 1142.55, "end": 1145.87, "text": "is that Gerald Ford is now out of commission for the next", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-002", "start": 1145.87, "end": 1149.65, "text": "two years because the damage was so extensive.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-003", "start": 1150.01, "end": 1154.65, "text": "And the theory is there's an investigation as to whether the sailors", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-004", "start": 1154.65, "end": 1160.75, "text": "deliberately set fire in a laundry room to decapitate the supercarrier.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-005", "start": 1160.95, "end": 1164.73, "text": "So you're seeing low morale among American soldiers.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-006", "start": 1165.07, "end": 1166.39, "text": "First day of the war what happened?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-007", "start": 1166.59, "end": 1170.69, "text": "All the American soldiers changed into civilian clothes and then fled into", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-008", "start": 1170.69, "end": 1175.13, "text": "hotels. Popular opinion in America only about 40 % of the population", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-009", "start": 1175.13, "end": 1179.23, "text": "support this war and this is the lowest support in the past", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-010", "start": 1179.23, "end": 1180.37, "text": "20, 30 years.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-011", "start": 1180.69, "end": 1184.37, "text": "So the consequence of not having a strategy of not having a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-012", "start": 1184.37, "end": 1189.69, "text": "purpose of not having a rationale means low morale among your population.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-013", "start": 1190.05, "end": 1194.39, "text": "And this is important because eventually if Trump wants to win this", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-014", "start": 1194.39, "end": 1196.81, "text": "war he needs a ground invasion.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-015", "start": 1197.09, "end": 1202.99, "text": "And already we're seeing additional troops being deployed to the Persian Gulf", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-016", "start": 1202.99, "end": 1205.17, "text": "and a lot of people assume they're planning an", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-017", "start": 1205.17, "end": 1206.25, "text": "amphibious landing somewhere.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "11bdf94adc0557522f456e38fbb41916fd996dbeb91dc811ab147be9c1395370", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0027", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=1142s", "time_label": "19:02", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0028", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "start": 1206.43, "end": 1237.15, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Possibly Cork Island but also possibly a naval base in the south east of Iran. Once you commit the ground invasion then you're going to have a popular uprising throughout America. Once you have this social media footage of Marines getting killed in Iran for no particular reason then you're going try for Epstein or Israel. So there's a tremendous consequence to what the Americans are doing right now.", "word_count": 69, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-001", "start": 1206.43, "end": 1211.43, "text": "Possibly Cork Island but also possibly a naval base in the south", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-002", "start": 1212.15, "end": 1213.67, "text": "east of Iran.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-003", "start": 1214.09, "end": 1217.15, "text": "Once you commit the ground invasion then you're going to have a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-004", "start": 1217.15, "end": 1220.31, "text": "popular uprising throughout America.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-005", "start": 1220.53, "end": 1225.31, "text": "Once you have this social media footage of Marines getting killed in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-006", "start": 1225.31, "end": 1230.23, "text": "Iran for no particular reason then you're going try for Epstein or", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-007", "start": 1230.23, "end": 1236.83, "text": "Israel. So there's a tremendous consequence to what the Americans are doing", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-008", "start": 1236.83, "end": 1237.15, "text": "right now.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "8850c386cfc4ae1a05159212d8c84d751e105ac133b23008172fc26ae2f0259e", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0028", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=1206s", "time_label": "20:06", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0029", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "start": 1237.29, "end": 1269.64, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Let's talk about this air power because you've been critical of I think you've referred to it as the inverted pyramid where the United States really relies on air power more than anything whether it's drones whether it's you know with fighter jets but Iran as Netanyahu has said will need to have boots on the ground in order for there to be an effective regime change. So they seem it really across purposes and then you mentioned 5,000 Marines being there's a really massive build -up now of U.S. forces heading to that region. It seems inevitable I hate to say it but it seems inevitable.", "word_count": 109, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-001", "start": 1237.29, "end": 1240.39, "text": "Let's talk about this air power because you've been critical of I", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-002", "start": 1240.39, "end": 1243.17, "text": "think you've referred to it as the inverted pyramid where the United", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-003", "start": 1243.17, "end": 1247.65, "text": "States really relies on air power more than anything whether it's drones", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-004", "start": 1247.65, "end": 1253.17, "text": "whether it's you know with fighter jets but Iran as Netanyahu has", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-005", "start": 1253.17, "end": 1255.75, "text": "said will need to have boots on the ground in order for", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-006", "start": 1255.75, "end": 1257.31, "text": "there to be an effective regime change.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-007", "start": 1257.53, "end": 1261.57, "text": "So they seem it really across purposes and then you mentioned 5", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-008", "start": 1261.57, "end": 1264.73, "text": ",000 Marines being there's a really massive build -up now of U", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-009", "start": 1264.73, "end": 1266.11, "text": ".S. forces heading to that region.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-010", "start": 1266.98, "end": 1269.64, "text": "It seems inevitable I hate to say it but it seems inevitable.", "word_count": 12 } ], "text_sha256": "82b8302838ccdad8801ce8ca46151ed81a64db66170834110c82b2b978a1e355", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0029", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=1237s", "time_label": "20:37", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0030", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "start": 1271.79, "end": 1329.77, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Right. So if you want to win this war what you do is you spend two years to stage two million troops around Iran. Okay. So you have 500,000 troops in Pakistan ready to assault from southeast from the southeast corner. You have another million in Iraq coming from that border and then you have another 500,000 maybe in Azerbaijan coming in from the north. Okay. You need about two years because you need to stockpile ammunition to train the soldiers to have the order of battle and you need if you want to win a war you actually do it that way. The problem is that America has not fought a real war for ever since Vietnam. 2003 the war against Iraq was not a real war because Saddam Hussein didn't have any air defense. He basically gave up even before the war began because he assumed that Americans would not be stupid enough to invade Iraq because that would make Iran the regional power.", "word_count": 168, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-001", "start": 1271.79, "end": 1275.75, "text": "Right. So if you want to win this war what you do", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-002", "start": 1275.75, "end": 1279.93, "text": "is you spend two years to stage two million troops around Iran.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-003", "start": 1280.21, "end": 1285.31, "text": "Okay. So you have 500,000 troops in Pakistan ready to assault", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-004", "start": 1285.31, "end": 1287.97, "text": "from southeast from the southeast corner.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-005", "start": 1288.73, "end": 1294.17, "text": "You have another million in Iraq coming from that border and then", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-006", "start": 1294.17, "end": 1297.85, "text": "you have another 500,000 maybe in Azerbaijan coming in from the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-007", "start": 1297.85, "end": 1298.45, "text": "north. Okay.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-008", "start": 1298.53, "end": 1303.29, "text": "You need about two years because you need to stockpile ammunition to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-009", "start": 1303.29, "end": 1306.93, "text": "train the soldiers to have the order of battle and you need", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-010", "start": 1306.93, "end": 1308.99, "text": "if you want to win a war you actually do it that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-011", "start": 1308.99, "end": 1312.89, "text": "way. 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So Saddam Hussein miscalculated. So the problem with the American military machine is that it's run by the military industrial complex and this is something that Eisenhower warned about in his farewell speech where he said that there's now this massive military bureaucracy that is independent of oversight that does not factor in the best interests of a nation that doesn't really care about popular opinion. And all they're interested in is creating as many advanced weapons systems as possible in order to basically steal from the American taxpayer and then starting these wars for no particular reason. Julian Assange said it best where the point of the war on terror is not to have successful wars but to have never -ending wars where the military industrial complex can steal as much as it wants from the American taxpayer. 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So we see these air defense systems, the Patriot system, the THAAD system, they don't really work. Even Israel's vaunted Iron Dome system, same with David, they don't work either. The Iranians now have are now able to strike at will against Tel Aviv. So air defense doesn't really work. Then you have these supercarriers, Abraham Lincoln, Gerald Ford, Gerald Ford cost $13 billion. And when they came into theater, they recognized that, wow, we could be hit by drones and missiles. So they ran away. They're not actually in this war. I mean, they're just flexing. And then you have these jets like the F -35. The F -35 cost $100 million each. It took about 26 years to develop. And it had stealth technology. 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So we see these air defense systems,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-004", "start": 1398.17, "end": 1400.47, "text": "the Patriot system, the THAAD system,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-005", "start": 1400.71, "end": 1401.59, "text": "they don't really work.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-006", "start": 1401.95, "end": 1405.15, "text": "Even Israel's vaunted Iron Dome system,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-007", "start": 1405.27, "end": 1406.57, "text": "same with David, they don't work either.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-008", "start": 1407.17, "end": 1411.57, "text": "The Iranians now have are now able to strike at will against", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-009", "start": 1412.33, "end": 1413.29, "text": "Tel Aviv.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-010", "start": 1413.45, "end": 1415.23, "text": "So air defense doesn't really work.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-011", "start": 1415.39, "end": 1417.29, "text": "Then you have these supercarriers,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-012", "start": 1417.33, "end": 1421.23, "text": "Abraham Lincoln, Gerald Ford, Gerald Ford cost $13 billion.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-013", "start": 1421.73, "end": 1423.99, "text": "And when they came into theater,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-014", "start": 1424.27, "end": 1428.17, "text": "they recognized that, wow, we could be hit by drones and missiles.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-015", "start": 1428.23, "end": 1429.05, "text": "So they ran away.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-016", "start": 1429.71, "end": 1432.69, "text": "They're not actually in this war.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-017", "start": 1432.93, "end": 1434.53, "text": "I mean, they're just flexing.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-018", "start": 1434.67, "end": 1438.45, "text": "And then you have these jets like the F -35.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-019", "start": 1438.89, "end": 1441.53, "text": "The F -35 cost $100 million each.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-020", "start": 1441.87, "end": 1444.13, "text": "It took about 26 years to develop.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-021", "start": 1444.51, "end": 1446.65, "text": "And it had stealth technology.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-022", "start": 1446.79, "end": 1450.53, "text": "This was the most advanced jet in the entire", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-023", "start": 1450.53, "end": 1450.773, "text": "world.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "2e0c348d2564f09cacdaf5acc0abe2339554b949fe8bc57610c4eab6eae6ef29", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0032", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=1386s", "time_label": "23:06", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0033", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "start": 1450.773, "end": 1466.59, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Yeah, we were told it was unhittable. Unhittable. Yes, exactly. And the Iranians hit them with like pretty limited radar. So it just shows you the corruption of the military industrial complex right now in the United States. And it shows you how the United States is not ready for this war at all.", "word_count": 54, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-001", "start": 1450.773, "end": 1452.47, "text": "Yeah, we were told it was unhittable.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-002", "start": 1452.79, "end": 1453.77, "text": "Unhittable. 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And then I want to ask you more about game theory and specific your prediction about the United States eventually losing this war. So we'll be back in just a moment. You may have seen the conversation happening online lately that censorship is back. It's happening everywhere. Platforms are controlling narratives and pushing the stuff they want us to see. We need to fight back. Well, Rumble is the only company that has stood the test of time and deserves our support. They've been supporting Redacted for years and we are so grateful for that relationship. Now on one side, Rumble is challenging censorship with platforms like us. But they also have something that has protection from big banks shutting us off, canceling our accounts, freezing our cards. 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Not a bank, not a government, not a tech company and not even Rumble can touch it. It's yours and only yours. You can buy and save digital assets like Bitcoin and Tether Gold. And now the new USAT, which is a regulated stable coin, all in one place. Tether Gold is real gold on the blockchain with ownership of physical gold bars. USAT keeps your money steady against inflation. No banks needed. So show some support for Rumble and other creators using the tip button. You can go to wallet.rumble.com see all their offerings there for a more secure banking and crypto investment site. Download Rumble Wallet today. Open an account. Step away from big banks for good. Wallet.rumble.com or search Rumble Wallet in the App Store. Okay, we're back with Professor Jang. He's the author of Predictive History on Substack", "word_count": 153, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-001", "start": 1527.56, "end": 1529.66, "text": "With Rumble Wallet, you control the money.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-002", "start": 1529.76, "end": 1530.98, "text": "Not a bank, not a government,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-003", "start": 1531.14, "end": 1534.16, "text": "not a tech company and not even Rumble can touch it.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-004", "start": 1534.24, "end": 1535.58, "text": "It's yours and only yours.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-005", "start": 1535.82, "end": 1539.78, "text": "You can buy and save digital assets like Bitcoin and Tether Gold.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-006", "start": 1540.06, "end": 1542.36, "text": "And now the new USAT,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-007", "start": 1542.44, "end": 1544.88, "text": "which is a regulated stable coin,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-008", "start": 1544.98, "end": 1545.96, "text": "all in one place.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-009", "start": 1546.1, "end": 1549.84, "text": "Tether Gold is real gold on the blockchain with ownership of physical", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-010", "start": 1549.84, "end": 1550.74, "text": "gold bars.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-011", "start": 1551.24, "end": 1553.96, "text": "USAT keeps your money steady against inflation.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-012", "start": 1554.1, "end": 1555.34, "text": "No banks needed.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-013", "start": 1555.56, "end": 1560.44, "text": "So show some support for Rumble and other creators using the tip", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-014", "start": 1560.44, "end": 1564.94, "text": "button. You can go to wallet.rumble.com see all their offerings", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-015", "start": 1564.94, "end": 1568.3, "text": "there for a more secure banking and crypto investment site.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-016", "start": 1568.32, "end": 1570.38, "text": "Download Rumble Wallet today.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-017", "start": 1570.6, "end": 1571.42, "text": "Open an account.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-018", "start": 1571.62, "end": 1573.66, "text": "Step away from big banks for good.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-019", "start": 1573.98, "end": 1578.34, "text": "Wallet.rumble.com or search Rumble Wallet in the App Store.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-020", "start": 1578.6, "end": 1580.48, "text": "Okay, we're back with Professor Jang.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-021", "start": 1580.66, "end": 1583.46, "text": "He's the author of Predictive History on Substack", "word_count": 8 } ], "text_sha256": "d74472ae945da4d28b4baa95a4da4cd18212e7f6fdaf22ba56430fd4711ae149", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0035", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=1527s", "time_label": "25:27", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0036", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "start": 1583.46, "end": 1636.86, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "and a YouTuber with 2 million subscribers in a short order because of his ability to recall public events before they happen. I guess recall is not the right word. So some things that he had said in 2024 is that Trump will win the election. He will start a war with Iran and that the United States would lose that war. So the war that President Trump said would be easily won in the days leading up to it has not proven to be so. So Professor Jang, thank you. Welcome back. I want to ask you about this prediction. Did you think when you predicted the war with Iran, first of all, can you tell us why you saw that coming when so many allies of the Trump campaign such as Tulsi Gabbard were against the war with Iran and why you think the United States would lose it? Why you knew that before the President ever did?", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-001", "start": 1583.46, "end": 1587.44, "text": "and a YouTuber with 2 million subscribers in a short order because", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-002", "start": 1587.44, "end": 1591.94, "text": "of his ability to recall public events before they happen.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-003", "start": 1592.16, "end": 1594.36, "text": "I guess recall is not the right word.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-004", "start": 1594.44, "end": 1598.56, "text": "So some things that he had said in 2024 is that Trump", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-005", "start": 1598.56, "end": 1599.72, "text": "will win the election.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-006", "start": 1600, "end": 1603.78, "text": "He will start a war with Iran and that the United States", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-007", "start": 1603.78, "end": 1605.08, "text": "would lose that war.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-008", "start": 1605.22, "end": 1609.68, "text": "So the war that President Trump said would be easily won in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-009", "start": 1609.68, "end": 1612.46, "text": "the days leading up to it has not proven to be so.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-010", "start": 1612.68, "end": 1614.06, "text": "So Professor Jang, thank you.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-011", "start": 1614.14, "end": 1614.94, "text": "Welcome back.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-012", "start": 1615.16, "end": 1617.6, "text": "I want to ask you about this prediction.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-013", "start": 1618, "end": 1621.68, "text": "Did you think when you predicted the war with Iran,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-014", "start": 1621.86, "end": 1624.86, "text": "first of all, can you tell us why you saw that coming", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-015", "start": 1624.86, "end": 1630.06, "text": "when so many allies of the Trump campaign such as Tulsi Gabbard", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-016", "start": 1630.06, "end": 1633.54, "text": "were against the war with Iran and why you think the United", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-017", "start": 1633.54, "end": 1634.66, "text": "States would lose it?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-018", "start": 1634.7, "end": 1636.86, "text": "Why you knew that before the President ever did?", "word_count": 9 } ], "text_sha256": "6caec5522e150726c1949293d995b85e67c8df9bb2d3cf9f9639fc3477505e12", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0036", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=1583s", "time_label": "26:23", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0037", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "start": 1637.56, "end": 1701.36, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Right. So the key piece of evidence is 20 years ago, about 2002, the American military, the Pentagon, ran a war game called the Millennium Challenge, the Millennium Challenge. And the idea is to look at how America could defeat Iran in a war. And so what they did was they asked this question to this admiral to fight on the side of Iranians and asked this admiral to figure out a strategy that could defeat the invincible American empire. And so in the first iteration, what the admiral did was he used drone swarms, okay? So these are cheap, you know, drones that attack all at once and it overwhelms the defense systems of the carriers and the destroyers. And in this iteration, the Iranians won. And so they ran this multiple times until finally what happened was the Pentagon basically restricted the strategy of the Iranians. Basically to say you can't use drones, you can't fight back, you can't cheat, you can't fight asymmetrically.", "word_count": 166, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-001", "start": 1637.56, "end": 1641.58, "text": "Right. So the key piece of evidence is 20 years ago,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-002", "start": 1641.72, "end": 1644.28, "text": "about 2002, the American military,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-003", "start": 1644.62, "end": 1647.7, "text": "the Pentagon, ran a war game called the Millennium Challenge,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-004", "start": 1647.88, "end": 1648.64, "text": "the Millennium Challenge.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-005", "start": 1648.9, "end": 1652.84, "text": "And the idea is to look at how America could defeat Iran", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-006", "start": 1652.84, "end": 1653.5, "text": "in a war.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-007", "start": 1653.86, "end": 1656.7, "text": "And so what they did was they asked this question to this", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-008", "start": 1656.7, "end": 1660.92, "text": "admiral to fight on the side of Iranians and asked this admiral", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-009", "start": 1660.92, "end": 1664.84, "text": "to figure out a strategy that could defeat the invincible American empire.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-010", "start": 1665.32, "end": 1666.9, "text": "And so in the first iteration,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-011", "start": 1667.2, "end": 1670.04, "text": "what the admiral did was he used drone swarms,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-012", "start": 1670.1, "end": 1671.28, "text": "okay? So these are cheap,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-013", "start": 1671.34, "end": 1677.18, "text": "you know, drones that attack all at once and it overwhelms the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-014", "start": 1677.18, "end": 1681.28, "text": "defense systems of the carriers and the destroyers.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-015", "start": 1681.38, "end": 1684.04, "text": "And in this iteration, the Iranians won.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-016", "start": 1684.34, "end": 1688.92, "text": "And so they ran this multiple times until finally what happened was", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-017", "start": 1688.92, "end": 1694.06, "text": "the Pentagon basically restricted the strategy of the Iranians.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-018", "start": 1694.1, "end": 1695.5, "text": "Basically to say you can't use drones,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-019", "start": 1695.82, "end": 1698.68, "text": "you can't fight back, you", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-020", "start": 1698.68, "end": 1701.36, "text": "can't cheat, you can't fight asymmetrically.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "72897be692ba91e258e0819485cc217d6258cd3cdbc46f82c8d270a0dbb213f3", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0037", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=1637s", "time_label": "27:17", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0038", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "start": 1701.6, "end": 1755.66, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "And then in that iteration, in the final iteration, the Pentagon won, okay? So this shows you two things. The first thing is that the Pentagon is not ready to fight a war asymmetrically. It doesn't have the creativity, it doesn't have the resilience, it doesn't have the flexibility. The second thing is the Pentagon has become this bureaucracy where it doesn't really want bad news. It doesn't want to admit its limitations. And so it's going to shape reality in a way that conforms to its expectations. And so that's one piece of evidence. Another piece of evidence is Operation Prosperity Guardian where the Houthis, in response to the genocide in Gaza, was disrupting Red Sea shipping. And so the Americans sent this massive naval armada to stop the Houthis, right? I'm sure you've seen this video footage of this massive armada. And it didn't do anything. They kept on hitting the Houthis.", "word_count": 154, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-001", "start": 1701.6, "end": 1702.72, "text": "And then in that iteration,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-002", "start": 1703.12, "end": 1705.44, "text": "in the final iteration, the Pentagon won,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-003", "start": 1705.62, "end": 1707.3, "text": "okay? So this shows you two things.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-004", "start": 1707.48, "end": 1711.68, "text": "The first thing is that the Pentagon is not ready to fight", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-005", "start": 1711.68, "end": 1713.12, "text": "a war asymmetrically.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-006", "start": 1713.32, "end": 1714.48, "text": "It doesn't have the creativity,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-007", "start": 1714.64, "end": 1715.38, "text": "it doesn't have the resilience,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-008", "start": 1715.4, "end": 1716.42, "text": "it doesn't have the flexibility.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-009", "start": 1716.78, "end": 1720.72, "text": "The second thing is the Pentagon has become this bureaucracy where it", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-010", "start": 1720.72, "end": 1722.22, "text": "doesn't really want bad news.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-011", "start": 1722.48, "end": 1723.98, "text": "It doesn't want to admit its limitations.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-012", "start": 1724.6, "end": 1728.64, "text": "And so it's going to shape reality in a way that conforms", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-013", "start": 1728.64, "end": 1729.34, "text": "to its expectations.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-014", "start": 1729.76, "end": 1731.82, "text": "And so that's one piece of evidence.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-015", "start": 1731.96, "end": 1736.86, "text": "Another piece of evidence is Operation Prosperity Guardian where the Houthis,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-016", "start": 1736.96, "end": 1738.54, "text": "in response to the genocide in Gaza,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-017", "start": 1738.94, "end": 1742.84, "text": "was disrupting Red Sea shipping.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-018", "start": 1743.1, "end": 1747.8, "text": "And so the Americans sent this massive naval armada to stop the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-019", "start": 1747.8, "end": 1748.38, "text": "Houthis, right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-020", "start": 1748.5, "end": 1751.82, "text": "I'm sure you've seen this video footage of this massive armada.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-021", "start": 1752.14, "end": 1753.5, "text": "And it didn't do anything.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-022", "start": 1753.94, "end": 1755.66, "text": "They kept on hitting the Houthis.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "772a79cfcfad431ca3cfa01dbe2812593b71013aa9be595660351406610bb9a1", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0038", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=1701s", "time_label": "28:21", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0039", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "start": 1755.74, "end": 1811.32, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "The Houthis hid in their mountains. And the Houthis refused to surrender. And the Americans didn't know what to do because they were so used to being able to scare their opponents, to bribe them, to intimidate them, to co -opt them, to assassinate them. And the Houthis refused to surrender. They were not afraid to die. And they could not be blackmailed. And so what happened was the Americans were forced to retreat. Now, I saw a YouTube video where these different admirals got together and discussed Operation Prosperity Guardian. And basically, to put it very simply, what they said was, we lost against the Houthis, we made a lot of mistakes, but we don't know how to beat them. But if you ask us to do it again, we'll use the same strategy because we don't know what else to do. That's basically the Pentagon. And so we're seeing this play out right now in Iran where these strategies don't really work.", "word_count": 164, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-001", "start": 1755.74, "end": 1756.98, "text": "The Houthis hid in their mountains.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-002", "start": 1757.68, "end": 1760.16, "text": "And the Houthis refused to surrender.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-003", "start": 1760.42, "end": 1762.2, "text": "And the Americans didn't know what to do because they were so", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-004", "start": 1762.2, "end": 1764.6, "text": "used to being able to scare their opponents,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-005", "start": 1764.84, "end": 1767.24, "text": "to bribe them, to intimidate them,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-006", "start": 1767.56, "end": 1769.88, "text": "to co -opt them, to assassinate them.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-007", "start": 1770.04, "end": 1773, "text": "And the Houthis refused to surrender.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-008", "start": 1773.76, "end": 1775.06, "text": "They were not afraid to die.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-009", "start": 1775.52, "end": 1778.12, "text": "And they could not be blackmailed.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-010", "start": 1778.12, "end": 1780.98, "text": "And so what happened was the Americans were forced to retreat.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-011", "start": 1781.3, "end": 1785.04, "text": "Now, I saw a YouTube video where these different admirals got together", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-012", "start": 1785.04, "end": 1787.12, "text": "and discussed Operation Prosperity Guardian.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-013", "start": 1787.44, "end": 1790.46, "text": "And basically, to put it very simply,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-014", "start": 1790.6, "end": 1795.24, "text": "what they said was, we lost against the Houthis,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-015", "start": 1795.24, "end": 1796.58, "text": "we made a lot of mistakes,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-016", "start": 1796.92, "end": 1798.22, "text": "but we don't know how to beat them.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-017", "start": 1798.44, "end": 1800.38, "text": "But if you ask us to do it again,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-018", "start": 1800.58, "end": 1802.72, "text": "we'll use the same strategy because we don't know what else to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-019", "start": 1802.72, "end": 1805.22, "text": "do. That's basically the Pentagon.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-020", "start": 1805.68, "end": 1809.84, "text": "And so we're seeing this play out right now in Iran where", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-021", "start": 1809.88, "end": 1810.28, "text": "these", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-022", "start": 1810.28, "end": 1811.32, "text": "strategies don't really work.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "3ed9a7c678fa27bb5cfdcf9df5578ff85a3073de582139cd42d19e7f0fd8571b", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0039", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=1755s", "time_label": "29:15", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0040", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "start": 1811.68, "end": 1861.637, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "These past weeks have shown shock and awe doesn't really work, but they don't know what else to do. So they keep on doing it. And now what they're doing is to think about sending the Marines in for an infamous landing because that's just what you do, even though every military analyst you talk to will tell you that this is a suicide mission. But unfortunately, once you commit to a war, the war achieves a momentum and a logic of its own. And this is what happened in Vietnam where in 1965, 1966, the Americans basically knew they could not defeat this insurgency in South Vietnam, but they didn't want to give up because of credibility or face, right? They don't want to look bad in front of the world. 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And the Pentagon could not really countenance this possibility. So what they'll do is they'll double down. It's very much like going to a casino, losing a million dollars, and then you're stuck. 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One more question about that. Because it feels like it doesn't matter that we're all so upset about the war, but you're saying it does. But on the other side, many Arab countries do have something to fight for, specifically the Palestinians, specifically the Iranians. Living as a Palestinian in Gaza under constant surveillance where the Israelis can kill you and rape you at will, lock you in Gaza, you're waiting decades for a right of return and living in utter poverty and misery. To them, the stakes are utterly existential, so anyone aligned with them has nothing to lose. So they do have moral support, whereas the rest of us don't. Can you explain how that plays into their... Because if they lose, they're all wiped out. There's nothing. I mean, I just finished Ramzi Baroud's book over the weekend, and the way that the", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-001", "start": 1888.48, "end": 1891.24, "text": "Can I just stay on this issue of morale before you change", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-002", "start": 1891.24, "end": 1891.66, "text": "the subject?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-003", "start": 1891.78, "end": 1893.1, "text": "One more question about that.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-004", "start": 1893.42, "end": 1896.86, "text": "Because it feels like it doesn't matter that we're all so upset", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-005", "start": 1896.86, "end": 1899.02, "text": "about the war, but you're saying it does.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-006", "start": 1899.24, "end": 1900.36, "text": "But on the other side,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-007", "start": 1902.9, "end": 1905.74, "text": "many Arab countries do have something to fight for,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-008", "start": 1905.8, "end": 1908.44, "text": "specifically the Palestinians, specifically the Iranians.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-009", "start": 1908.52, "end": 1913.24, "text": "Living as a Palestinian in Gaza under constant surveillance where the Israelis", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-010", "start": 1913.24, "end": 1915.82, "text": "can kill you and rape you at will,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-011", "start": 1916, "end": 1919.88, "text": "lock you in Gaza, you're waiting decades for a right of return", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-012", "start": 1919.88, "end": 1922.14, "text": "and living in utter poverty and misery.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-013", "start": 1922.86, "end": 1925.8, "text": "To them, the stakes are utterly existential,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-014", "start": 1925.92, "end": 1930.28, "text": "so anyone aligned with them has nothing to lose.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-015", "start": 1930.68, "end": 1933.74, "text": "So they do have moral support,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-016", "start": 1934, "end": 1936.38, "text": "whereas the rest of us don't.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-017", "start": 1936.38, "end": 1939.1, "text": "Can you explain how that plays into their...", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-018", "start": 1939.1, "end": 1941.58, "text": "Because if they lose, they're all wiped out.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-019", "start": 1941.66, "end": 1942.1, "text": "There's nothing.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-020", "start": 1942.4, "end": 1945.12, "text": "I mean, I just finished Ramzi Baroud's book over the weekend,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-021", "start": 1945.2, "end": 1946.36, "text": "and the way that the", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "0fb96f1a07bd18f57dd99d2ac75effddcf0b58376e2056287104e42724d05924", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0042", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=1888s", "time_label": "31:28", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0043", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "start": 1946.36, "end": 1952.96, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Palestinians in Gaza have been living for decades is horrific, and those are stories that are not told to us, but it's very motivating to them.", "word_count": 26, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-001", "start": 1946.36, "end": 1949.26, "text": "Palestinians in Gaza have been living for decades is horrific,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-002", "start": 1949.36, "end": 1951.32, "text": "and those are stories that are not told to us,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-003", "start": 1951.36, "end": 1952.96, "text": "but it's very motivating to them.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "698509bf475eb9437e4f9d07a9c406069816db0604f6bf6146f67bd275a846d2", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0043", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=1946s", "time_label": "32:26", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0044", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "start": 1954.46, "end": 2005.42, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Yeah. Look, I think that the Iranians have extremely high morale, and the reason why is they think they are on the side of truth. You know, what people forget about the Iranians is that these are the Persians, and the Persians have been around for about 3,000 years. And the Persians were originally Zoroastrians, and Zoroastrians were the first eschatological people in that they believed that they are here to serve the will of God. And to bring about a just world. And so they believed like, if you live a life of truth, if you fight for what is good, then you make the world a better place. And you know, and that's why the Iranians refuse to do a preemptive strike. You know, there are a lot of people telling the Iranians, you know what? The Americans are going to come anyway. The Israelis are going to come anyway. Take the initiative. You know, set the contours of this war.", "word_count": 164, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-001", "start": 1954.46, "end": 1958.58, "text": "Yeah. 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We refuse to submit to the lie. So if they attack us, we'll fight back. But we will never ever be the aggressor. We will never ever choose the path of violence. We choose the path of right. And you know, when you do that, when you submit yourself to the will of God, when you commit yourself to righteousness, there's an inner fire in you that allows you to surmount all obstacles, that gives you faith in the most darkest times. And you know, you can see that in Iran where, you know, they're being devastated. In the first week, they really struck an oil depot in Tehran. And so the entire sky was black. But inside, there's a light shining in the Iranian people. 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And, you know, we're big fans of David Icke here on this show. He's been a guest a number of times. One of the things that he's been saying is that this Iranian war, this collapse of Iran, et cetera, has been planned for a long time. I mean, this is many, many decades. As you pointed out, the war games that they were playing at the Pentagon many decades ago. But this is all part of a plan, a broader plan. And his argument is, of course, that Trump is just like a pawn in this cultist's chessboard, ushering in this new era of AI and control. And we will lose more money and more rights. I mean, I just did a video this weekend about this very same thing, this idea that they will take away our control. They will take away our ability to transact. AI will have, you know, this biological connection now to the human brain.", "word_count": 167, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-001", "start": 2061.74, "end": 2063.6, "text": "You brought up David Icke earlier.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-002", "start": 2063.84, "end": 2066.3, "text": "And, you know, we're big fans of David Icke here on this", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-003", "start": 2066.3, "end": 2068.24, "text": "show. He's been a guest a number of times.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-004", "start": 2068.24, "end": 2071.36, "text": "One of the things that he's been saying is that this Iranian", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-005", "start": 2071.36, "end": 2074.16, "text": "war, this collapse of Iran,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-006", "start": 2074.3, "end": 2076.52, "text": "et cetera, has been planned for a long time.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-007", "start": 2076.64, "end": 2077.3, "text": "I mean, this is many,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-008", "start": 2077.38, "end": 2077.84, "text": "many decades.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-009", "start": 2077.96, "end": 2082.14, "text": "As you pointed out, the war games that they were playing at", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-010", "start": 2082.14, "end": 2083.56, "text": "the Pentagon many decades ago.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-011", "start": 2083.66, "end": 2085.08, "text": "But this is all part of a plan,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-012", "start": 2085.2, "end": 2085.92, "text": "a broader plan.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-013", "start": 2086.12, "end": 2087.88, "text": "And his argument is, of course,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-014", "start": 2087.88, "end": 2091.58, "text": "that Trump is just like a pawn in this cultist's chessboard,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-015", "start": 2092.72, "end": 2095.6, "text": "ushering in this new era of AI and control.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-016", "start": 2096.52, "end": 2098.7, "text": "And we will lose more money and more rights.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-017", "start": 2098.94, "end": 2101.14, "text": "I mean, I just did a video this weekend about this very", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-018", "start": 2101.14, "end": 2104.3, "text": "same thing, this idea that they will take away our control.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-019", "start": 2104.5, "end": 2106.68, "text": "They will take away our ability to transact.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-020", "start": 2107.44, "end": 2109.58, "text": "AI will have, you know,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-021", "start": 2109.6, "end": 2109.78, "text": "this", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-022", "start": 2109.78, "end": 2112.2, "text": "biological connection now to the human brain.", "word_count": 7 } ], "text_sha256": "3dbf9640246e1a90555b63b779837c7d1b956f1c615c07876fe0c9d56e823fbf", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0047", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2061s", "time_label": "34:21", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0048", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "start": 2112.5, "end": 2128.88, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "They are issuing in this, ushering in this new era of control just like the Patriot Act. So we can get all into the finite details about air power and this drone struck this particular oil plant and this. But really, it's part of a larger game. Do you see it that way?", "word_count": 53, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-001", "start": 2112.5, "end": 2114.06, "text": "They are issuing in this,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-002", "start": 2114.6, "end": 2117.72, "text": "ushering in this new era of control just like the Patriot Act.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-003", "start": 2117.94, "end": 2121.6, "text": "So we can get all into the finite details about air power", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-004", "start": 2121.6, "end": 2125.26, "text": "and this drone struck this particular oil plant and this.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-005", "start": 2125.4, "end": 2127.72, "text": "But really, it's part of a larger game.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-006", "start": 2127.88, "end": 2128.88, "text": "Do you see it that way?", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "0b116e713bb8af96c2c0dbaee082a99d42ff7f7fb9c7526b7da597dd3ef10cbb", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0048", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2112s", "time_label": "35:12", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0049", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "start": 2129.51, "end": 2188.15, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Yeah. I mean, I completely agree with David Icke's assessment. I think this is the future we're heading towards. My main issue with David Icke is that he thinks this is all deliberate. This is all scripted. This is all planned. And it's true that certain people have planned this out. These are occultists. These are people who have been studying Kabbalah and meditating on the state of the world for many, many decades. And they have foreseen these events turn out. But to say that this is all scripted really doesn't take into account the agency of certain individuals. So to say this will ultimately lead to a certain series of events, I agree with. I think this will lead to digital currency. I think this will lead to an AI surveillance control grid. I think this will lead to a collapse of the global economy. I think this will lead to a reset. I think this will lead to the greater Israel project.", "word_count": 165, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-001", "start": 2129.51, "end": 2132.55, "text": "Yeah. I mean, I completely agree with David Icke's assessment.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-002", "start": 2132.77, "end": 2135.41, "text": "I think this is the future we're heading towards.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-003", "start": 2136.65, "end": 2140.25, "text": "My main issue with David Icke is that he thinks this is", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-004", "start": 2140.25, "end": 2141.21, "text": "all deliberate.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-005", "start": 2141.51, "end": 2142.61, "text": "This is all scripted.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-006", "start": 2142.65, "end": 2143.57, "text": "This is all planned.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-007", "start": 2143.79, "end": 2147.29, "text": "And it's true that certain people have planned this out.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-008", "start": 2147.49, "end": 2148.57, "text": "These are occultists.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-009", "start": 2148.69, "end": 2153.67, "text": "These are people who have been studying Kabbalah and meditating on the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-010", "start": 2153.67, "end": 2156.21, "text": "state of the world for many,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-011", "start": 2156.31, "end": 2156.81, "text": "many decades.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-012", "start": 2157.09, "end": 2159.53, "text": "And they have foreseen these events turn out.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-013", "start": 2159.79, "end": 2164.93, "text": "But to say that this is all scripted really doesn't take into", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-014", "start": 2164.93, "end": 2168.13, "text": "account the agency of certain individuals.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-015", "start": 2169.33, "end": 2173.71, "text": "So to say this will ultimately lead to a certain series of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-016", "start": 2173.71, "end": 2174.97, "text": "events, I agree with.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-017", "start": 2175.07, "end": 2176.69, "text": "I think this will lead to digital currency.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-018", "start": 2176.95, "end": 2181.09, "text": "I think this will lead to an AI surveillance control grid.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-019", "start": 2181.25, "end": 2183.95, "text": "I think this will lead to a collapse of the global economy.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-020", "start": 2184.19, "end": 2186.03, "text": "I think this will lead to a reset.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-021", "start": 2186.25, "end": 2187.01, "text": "I think this will lead", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-022", "start": 2187.01, "end": 2188.15, "text": "to the greater Israel project.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "b65f0c601a42f2743313b724631f5c0f45ca82bc6ae8cd1d27325b667b554ade", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0049", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2129s", "time_label": "35:29", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0050", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "start": 2188.43, "end": 2234.07, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "So on where the world is heading, I agree with David Icke. But I will also point out that according to game theory, we cannot discount certain players in this game. So for example, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are major players in this game. And their interests are not actually aligned with the interests of the global elite. Yes, the global elite has a certain plan for us. And this war is meant to achieve this plan. But Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump may have other plans as well. And what we're seeing is really the script being played out, but also a response to this script. So I don't think things will work out as seamlessly as people predict.", "word_count": 121, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-001", "start": 2188.43, "end": 2190.93, "text": "So on where the world is heading,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-002", "start": 2191.83, "end": 2193.59, "text": "I agree with David Icke.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-003", "start": 2193.69, "end": 2196.19, "text": "But I will also point out that according to game theory,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-004", "start": 2196.43, "end": 2200.07, "text": "we cannot discount certain players in this game.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-005", "start": 2200.19, "end": 2204.25, "text": "So for example, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are major players in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-006", "start": 2204.25, "end": 2204.73, "text": "this game.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-007", "start": 2204.85, "end": 2209.37, "text": "And their interests are not actually aligned with the interests of the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-008", "start": 2209.37, "end": 2209.83, "text": "global elite.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-009", "start": 2210.11, "end": 2212.57, "text": "Yes, the global elite has a certain plan for us.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-010", "start": 2212.65, "end": 2215.23, "text": "And this war is meant to achieve this plan.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-011", "start": 2215.23, "end": 2220.41, "text": "But Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump may have other plans as well.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-012", "start": 2220.65, "end": 2224.41, "text": "And what we're seeing is really the script being played out,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-013", "start": 2224.47, "end": 2227.09, "text": "but also a response to this script.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-014", "start": 2227.29, "end": 2233.75, "text": "So I don't think things will work out as seamlessly as people", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-015", "start": 2233.75, "end": 2234.07, "text": "predict.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "4dbcc75f80c12de5ba2f9d16a9dc8cb4d3663d77b0a1669f1ac40826c521e9a4", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0050", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2188s", "time_label": "36:28", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0051", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "start": 2234.41, "end": 2285.69, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Yeah, no, I see what you mean. And I think you're spot on with that because there are individual players in this that have agency and can manipulate. There is a broader framework, whatever you want to call it, this 2030 agenda more broadly, control grid, et cetera, digital currency. They want massive control of all of us. And really, COVID -19, of course, was the trial run to see how far they could push us into these lockdowns. Do you believe that we are heading into a massive energy lockdown, the likes of which we've never seen before, even eclipsing what we saw with COVID -19? You're already seeing, obviously, in Southeast Asia, you talked about Thailand in your interview with Tucker. Thailand already on fuel restrictions and telling people to stay home. They've, I think, declared a state of emergency. Vietnam and other countries as well. So do you think we are heading for a massive lockdown?", "word_count": 159, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-001", "start": 2234.41, "end": 2236.29, "text": "Yeah, no, I see what you mean.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-002", "start": 2236.41, "end": 2239.83, "text": "And I think you're spot on with that because there are individual", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-003", "start": 2239.83, "end": 2242.61, "text": "players in this that have agency and can manipulate.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-004", "start": 2242.95, "end": 2244.29, "text": "There is a broader framework,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-005", "start": 2244.47, "end": 2245.21, "text": "whatever you want to call it,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-006", "start": 2245.23, "end": 2247.51, "text": "this 2030 agenda more broadly,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-007", "start": 2248.05, "end": 2250.13, "text": "control grid, et cetera, digital currency.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-008", "start": 2250.25, "end": 2252.69, "text": "They want massive control of all of us.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-009", "start": 2252.77, "end": 2254.39, "text": "And really, COVID -19, of course,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-010", "start": 2254.45, "end": 2258.51, "text": "was the trial run to see how far they could push us", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-011", "start": 2258.51, "end": 2259.67, "text": "into these lockdowns.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-012", "start": 2259.69, "end": 2262.83, "text": "Do you believe that we are heading into a massive energy lockdown,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-013", "start": 2263.11, "end": 2265.05, "text": "the likes of which we've never seen before,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-014", "start": 2265.25, "end": 2268.61, "text": "even eclipsing what we saw with COVID -19?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-015", "start": 2268.65, "end": 2270.49, "text": "You're already seeing, obviously, in Southeast Asia,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-016", "start": 2270.55, "end": 2273.83, "text": "you talked about Thailand in your interview with Tucker.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-017", "start": 2273.83, "end": 2279.13, "text": "Thailand already on fuel restrictions and telling people to stay home.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-018", "start": 2279.35, "end": 2280.89, "text": "They've, I think, declared a state of emergency.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-019", "start": 2281.57, "end": 2283.55, "text": "Vietnam and other countries as well.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-020", "start": 2283.69, "end": 2285.69, "text": "So do you think we are heading for a massive lockdown?", "word_count": 11 } ], "text_sha256": "537a798697f4b1ac0faba41d6f99c101066e66f7f0170b30add40b76c8d3a0d4", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0051", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2234s", "time_label": "37:14", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0052", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "start": 2286.84, "end": 2342.18, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "I actually think the real issue that the global elite need to resolve is the financial system, meaning that over the past 10, 20 years, they printed too much money. And there are too many individuals who are millionaires. And this is causing a lot of problems. For the global economy. And so what you need to do is basically destroy a lot of this wealth. And there are different options that they can use to destroy this wealth. A civil war in America would do it. A false flag attack on financial data centers where a lot of wealth is wiped out will also work. And then you can blame this false flag on Iran and therefore muster public support for a national draft. So I think their priority is not necessarily to lock the country down, but to try to destroy as much excess wealth as possible from the system in order to better regulate individuals.", "word_count": 158, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-001", "start": 2286.84, "end": 2292.34, "text": "I actually think the real issue that the global elite need to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-002", "start": 2292.34, "end": 2294.84, "text": "resolve is the financial system,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-003", "start": 2294.96, "end": 2297.14, "text": "meaning that over the past 10,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-004", "start": 2297.2, "end": 2298.66, "text": "20 years, they printed too much money.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-005", "start": 2298.82, "end": 2301.44, "text": "And there are too many individuals who are millionaires.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-006", "start": 2301.58, "end": 2304.16, "text": "And this is causing a lot of problems.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-007", "start": 2304.16, "end": 2306.1, "text": "For the global economy.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-008", "start": 2307.2, "end": 2310.54, "text": "And so what you need to do is basically destroy a lot", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-009", "start": 2310.54, "end": 2311.02, "text": "of this wealth.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-010", "start": 2311.16, "end": 2314.12, "text": "And there are different options that they can use to destroy this", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-011", "start": 2314.12, "end": 2317.1, "text": "wealth. A civil war in America would do it.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-012", "start": 2317.2, "end": 2321.62, "text": "A false flag attack on financial data centers where a lot of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-013", "start": 2321.62, "end": 2324.92, "text": "wealth is wiped out will also work.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-014", "start": 2325.06, "end": 2327.92, "text": "And then you can blame this false flag on Iran and therefore", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-015", "start": 2327.92, "end": 2330.92, "text": "muster public support for a national draft.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-016", "start": 2331.22, "end": 2335.4, "text": "So I think their priority is not necessarily to lock the country", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-017", "start": 2335.4, "end": 2339.68, "text": "down, but to try to destroy as much excess wealth as possible", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-018", "start": 2339.68, "end": 2342.18, "text": "from the system in order to better regulate individuals.", "word_count": 9 } ], "text_sha256": "67335c8de1542d45ee05832a781b1902f24a2f2ccd4f3fd83168ba94571999b3", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0052", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2286s", "time_label": "38:06", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0053", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "start": 2342.68, "end": 2354.32, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "That's terrifying. I mean, yeah, maybe not the lockdown in the COVID sense of the term, but locking us down financially by wiping out huge stores of value. That's absolutely terrifying.", "word_count": 31, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-001", "start": 2342.68, "end": 2343.38, "text": "That's terrifying.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-002", "start": 2343.68, "end": 2347.92, "text": "I mean, yeah, maybe not the lockdown in the COVID sense of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-003", "start": 2347.92, "end": 2352.68, "text": "the term, but locking us down financially by wiping out huge stores", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-004", "start": 2352.68, "end": 2353.26, "text": "of value.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-005", "start": 2353.34, "end": 2354.32, "text": "That's absolutely terrifying.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "2be74b8d627f6ce037e8bf74a22c88d34297f38e52f3a70e63b128d134b15670", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0053", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2342s", "time_label": "39:02", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0054", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "start": 2354.68, "end": 2404.57, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Yes. I do want to talk about these dark forces a little bit more because the Epstein class is clearly a real thing. And how much of the Epstein class do you think is just that they're satanic perverts doing things for their own satisfaction and that it does promote a war? Is it a chess piece to move around? I have you as someone who eats babies, therefore you must give me the war that I wanted. What do you think of that? Because you talk a lot about the Epstein class. Was it real in the way that most of us see now from the public documents? What have we not seen? And how is it operating still? Because it clearly didn't die with Epstein. Yeah.", "word_count": 128, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-001", "start": 2354.68, "end": 2361.31, "text": "Yes. I do want to talk about these dark forces a little", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-002", "start": 2361.31, "end": 2367.19, "text": "bit more because the Epstein class is clearly a real thing.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-003", "start": 2367.35, "end": 2371.35, "text": "And how much of the Epstein class do you think is just", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-004", "start": 2371.35, "end": 2376.41, "text": "that they're satanic perverts doing things for their own satisfaction and that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-005", "start": 2376.41, "end": 2378.27, "text": "it does promote a war?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-006", "start": 2378.39, "end": 2381.17, "text": "Is it a chess piece to move around?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-007", "start": 2381.65, "end": 2384.37, "text": "I have you as someone who eats babies,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-008", "start": 2384.43, "end": 2387.63, "text": "therefore you must give me the war that I wanted.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-009", "start": 2387.93, "end": 2389.19, "text": "What do you think of that?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-010", "start": 2389.21, "end": 2390.97, "text": "Because you talk a lot about the Epstein class.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-011", "start": 2391.95, "end": 2394.89, "text": "Was it real in the way that most of us see now", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-012", "start": 2394.89, "end": 2396.63, "text": "from the public documents?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-013", "start": 2396.89, "end": 2398.67, "text": "What have we not seen?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-014", "start": 2398.93, "end": 2400.67, "text": "And how is it operating still?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-015", "start": 2400.89, "end": 2402.45, "text": "Because it clearly didn't die with Epstein.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-016", "start": 2404.09, "end": 2404.57, "text": "Yeah.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "75283e73f7a637445f14d1122fe3d2426dc8539a14f10eb37eb3a8f365e5e376", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0054", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2354s", "time_label": "39:14", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0055", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "start": 2405.98, "end": 2471.94, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "So the Epstein class, I think people focus on the wrong thing, which is they focus on pizza gate, right? They focus on the idea that Epstein was talking about, like beef jerky, pizza and grape soda. And that's what captivates me. It's the people's imagination. But I think that's not really the point. And what I mean by that is we think that Jeffrey Epstein was running a blackmail operation and using Epstein Island in order to gather compromising material on powerful individuals like Bill Clinton and Bill Gates. I think Epstein Island was just a weekend getaway. It's just what he did for fun. As you look at the Epstein files and you track what he was doing, well, he was basically an operative for the global elite and trying to manufacture geopolitical events in a certain way that most benefit the global elite, right? So he was involved in the great financial crisis of 2008. He was probably involved in 9 -11, even though we don't have the emails that confirm this.", "word_count": 175, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-001", "start": 2405.98, "end": 2409.7, "text": "So the Epstein class, I think people focus on the wrong thing,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-002", "start": 2409.82, "end": 2412.56, "text": "which is they focus on pizza gate,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-003", "start": 2412.72, "end": 2415.3, "text": "right? They focus on the idea that Epstein was talking about,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-004", "start": 2415.34, "end": 2418.46, "text": "like beef jerky, pizza and grape soda.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-005", "start": 2419.3, "end": 2421.18, "text": "And that's what captivates me.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-006", "start": 2421.2, "end": 2421.9, "text": "It's the people's imagination.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-007", "start": 2422.6, "end": 2425.36, "text": "But I think that's not really the point.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-008", "start": 2425.56, "end": 2429.92, "text": "And what I mean by that is we think that Jeffrey Epstein", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-009", "start": 2429.92, "end": 2436.18, "text": "was running a blackmail operation and using Epstein Island in order to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-010", "start": 2436.18, "end": 2440.26, "text": "gather compromising material on powerful individuals like Bill Clinton and Bill Gates.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-011", "start": 2440.58, "end": 2443.98, "text": "I think Epstein Island was just a weekend getaway.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-012", "start": 2444.1, "end": 2445.08, "text": "It's just what he did for fun.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-013", "start": 2445.42, "end": 2448.4, "text": "As you look at the Epstein files and you track what he", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-014", "start": 2448.4, "end": 2452.58, "text": "was doing, well, he was basically an operative for the global elite", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-015", "start": 2452.9, "end": 2458.5, "text": "and trying to manufacture geopolitical events in a certain way that most", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-016", "start": 2458.5, "end": 2462.16, "text": "benefit the global elite, right?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-017", "start": 2462.28, "end": 2466.54, "text": "So he was involved in the great financial crisis of 2008.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-018", "start": 2467.06, "end": 2467.48, "text": "He was", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-019", "start": 2467.48, "end": 2468.84, "text": "probably involved in 9 -11,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-020", "start": 2469.08, "end": 2471.94, "text": "even though we don't have the emails that confirm this.", "word_count": 10 } ], "text_sha256": "6894b5cbb7536a68c8e5c73b8c8d14453b9a853e749e7cda96696ec16bcc057c", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0055", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2405s", "time_label": "40:05", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0056", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "start": 2472.1, "end": 2528.04, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "But a lot of, if you just connect the dots, it suggests that he was in a certain way involved in 9 -11. You know, he was a neighbor to Howard Lugnick in Manhattan, right? So, and they were neighbors and their numbers were 9 and 11. So is this all coincidence? You know, I mean, like, I don't know. But so what I will say is this. If you just look at the Epstein files and you try to reconstruct how he was making his money and what his real job was, well, he was mainly engaged in arms trafficking, money laundering, and, you know, and geopolitical manipulation. And so he was basically an operative. And the money was just something that he did. I mean, it was not a concern. I mean, think about this, where Bill Gates and Reid Hoffman, these are billionaires, when they were asked, why do you associate with Epstein?", "word_count": 156, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-001", "start": 2472.1, "end": 2475.36, "text": "But a lot of, if you just connect the dots,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-002", "start": 2475.52, "end": 2478.98, "text": "it suggests that he was in a certain way involved in 9", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-003", "start": 2478.98, "end": 2484.38, "text": "-11. You know, he was a neighbor to Howard Lugnick in Manhattan,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-004", "start": 2484.82, "end": 2489.12, "text": "right? So, and they were neighbors and their numbers were 9 and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-005", "start": 2489.12, "end": 2491.2, "text": "11. So is this all coincidence?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-006", "start": 2491.5, "end": 2492.7, "text": "You know, I mean, like,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-007", "start": 2492.76, "end": 2493.52, "text": "I don't know.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-008", "start": 2493.68, "end": 2496.24, "text": "But so what I will say is this.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-009", "start": 2496.3, "end": 2499.62, "text": "If you just look at the Epstein files and you try to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-010", "start": 2499.62, "end": 2502.36, "text": "reconstruct how he was making his money and what his real job", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-011", "start": 2502.36, "end": 2505.56, "text": "was, well, he was mainly engaged in arms trafficking,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-012", "start": 2505.84, "end": 2509.2, "text": "money laundering, and, you know,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-013", "start": 2510.72, "end": 2512.14, "text": "and geopolitical manipulation.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-014", "start": 2512.72, "end": 2514.58, "text": "And so he was basically an operative.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-015", "start": 2514.7, "end": 2517.02, "text": "And the money was just something that he did.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-016", "start": 2517.82, "end": 2519.58, "text": "I mean, it was not a concern.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-017", "start": 2520.12, "end": 2521.56, "text": "I mean, think about this,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-018", "start": 2521.66, "end": 2524.46, "text": "where Bill Gates and Reid Hoffman,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-019", "start": 2524.5, "end": 2524.92, "text": "these are", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-020", "start": 2524.92, "end": 2526.36, "text": "billionaires, when they were asked,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-021", "start": 2526.5, "end": 2528.04, "text": "why do you associate with Epstein?", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "d96d002be3ef4b91923d2838b6b04123d17092cacf468b515df494373e713dda", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0056", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2472s", "time_label": "41:12", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0057", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "start": 2528.26, "end": 2584.58, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "And their response was, well, we wanted money from him, right? So these are billionaires trying to beg Epstein for money. So something's wrong with our current conception of the world. And so what I will say is there is a transnational elite that is above the nation state that is able to manipulate the nation state. And this transnational elite is able to manipulate geopolitical events in a certain way that maximizes their benefit, okay? And we can speculate as to who these, who this transnational elite are. But I will say that they are an alliance between three forces, okay? These three forces are transnational capital, state of London, Wall Street, secret societies, Jesuits, Shabbat Lubavitch, Sabatim Frankis, Freemasons, Rosicrucians. And then you have these elite families called the 13 families that apparently control the world, okay? So I would say Epstein was one of these people from an elite family.", "word_count": 153, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-001", "start": 2528.26, "end": 2530.18, "text": "And their response was, well,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-002", "start": 2530.22, "end": 2531.58, "text": "we wanted money from him,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-003", "start": 2531.68, "end": 2534.82, "text": "right? So these are billionaires trying to beg Epstein for money.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-004", "start": 2534.98, "end": 2539.34, "text": "So something's wrong with our current conception of the world.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-005", "start": 2539.5, "end": 2542.48, "text": "And so what I will say is there is a transnational elite", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-006", "start": 2542.48, "end": 2546.5, "text": "that is above the nation state that is able to manipulate the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-007", "start": 2546.5, "end": 2547.04, "text": "nation state.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-008", "start": 2547.3, "end": 2552.14, "text": "And this transnational elite is able to manipulate geopolitical events in a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-009", "start": 2552.14, "end": 2554.44, "text": "certain way that maximizes their benefit,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-010", "start": 2554.7, "end": 2556.7, "text": "okay? And we can speculate as to who these,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-011", "start": 2556.7, "end": 2558.92, "text": "who this transnational elite are.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-012", "start": 2559.2, "end": 2561.72, "text": "But I will say that they are an alliance between three forces,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-013", "start": 2561.82, "end": 2564.42, "text": "okay? These three forces are transnational capital,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-014", "start": 2564.7, "end": 2566.26, "text": "state of London, Wall Street,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-015", "start": 2566.46, "end": 2570.96, "text": "secret societies, Jesuits, Shabbat Lubavitch,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-016", "start": 2572.14, "end": 2575.42, "text": "Sabatim Frankis, Freemasons, Rosicrucians.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-017", "start": 2575.68, "end": 2578.78, "text": "And then you have these elite families called the 13 families that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-018", "start": 2578.78, "end": 2580.06, "text": "apparently control the world, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-019", "start": 2580.16, "end": 2583.5, "text": "So I would say Epstein was one of these people", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-020", "start": 2583.5, "end": 2584.58, "text": "from an elite family.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "ac2126d88c0498c8371b90c4c0b36988e6769448c70e8bd9b06716221f710eca", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0057", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2528s", "time_label": "42:08", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0058", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "start": 2584.82, "end": 2614.76, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "And if you look at his emails, what he will say is there were three major Jewish families in Europe. They were the Rothschilds, the Epsteins, and the Gutmans. And he said, he told Peter Thiel, I represent the Rothschilds. And what he's really saying is I represent a collection of transnational capital that is able to influence geopolitical events. So I think that is what the Epstein class is. The Epstein class are parasites on the nation state and they manipulate the geopolitical events in a certain way that most benefits them.", "word_count": 93, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-001", "start": 2584.82, "end": 2585.96, "text": "And if you look at his emails,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-002", "start": 2586.1, "end": 2589.64, "text": "what he will say is there were three major Jewish families in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-003", "start": 2589.64, "end": 2591.28, "text": "Europe. They were the Rothschilds,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-004", "start": 2591.28, "end": 2592.5, "text": "the Epsteins, and the Gutmans.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-005", "start": 2593.14, "end": 2595.3, "text": "And he said, he told Peter Thiel,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-006", "start": 2595.42, "end": 2597.1, "text": "I represent the Rothschilds.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-007", "start": 2597.1, "end": 2601.66, "text": "And what he's really saying is I represent a collection of transnational", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-008", "start": 2601.66, "end": 2605.22, "text": "capital that is able to influence geopolitical events.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-009", "start": 2605.46, "end": 2607.86, "text": "So I think that is what the Epstein class is.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-010", "start": 2608.06, "end": 2611.5, "text": "The Epstein class are parasites on the nation state and they manipulate", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-011", "start": 2611.5, "end": 2614.76, "text": "the geopolitical events in a certain way that most benefits them.", "word_count": 11 } ], "text_sha256": "1276a5d5b93745b913de9188d21a305692a774b645e33049b5333d0e328509c1", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0058", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2584s", "time_label": "43:04", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0059", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "start": 2615.38, "end": 2671.76, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "You know, Joe Kent last week, I think it was last week now, time is flying so quickly, resigned from the Trump administration basically trying to prevent this war in Iran. He says that everybody, all of the intelligence agencies have confirmed that Iran was, did not have nuclear ambitions. They were not building nuclear weapons. President Trump just on Monday comes out and says, you know, the whole reason we're having these negotiations, no more wars and we will not allow Iran to get those nuclear weapons. So there seems to be this massive disconnect. Joe Kent posted this, and I just want to read it to you. He said, step one in de -escalation must be restraining the Israelis. He said, otherwise all efforts to negotiate will follow this pattern. Well, President of the United States will announce a de -escalation and then Israel launches some major attack on oil infrastructure, desalinization plants. And that's what we've seen", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-001", "start": 2615.38, "end": 2618.02, "text": "You know, Joe Kent last week,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-002", "start": 2618.64, "end": 2619.96, "text": "I think it was last week now,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-003", "start": 2620.06, "end": 2621.66, "text": "time is flying so quickly,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-004", "start": 2621.8, "end": 2627.34, "text": "resigned from the Trump administration basically trying to prevent this war in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-005", "start": 2627.34, "end": 2629.34, "text": "Iran. He says that everybody,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-006", "start": 2629.92, "end": 2633.42, "text": "all of the intelligence agencies have confirmed that Iran was,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-007", "start": 2633.52, "end": 2635.16, "text": "did not have nuclear ambitions.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-008", "start": 2635.26, "end": 2636.7, "text": "They were not building nuclear weapons.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-009", "start": 2636.78, "end": 2640.5, "text": "President Trump just on Monday comes out and says,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-010", "start": 2640.62, "end": 2642.58, "text": "you know, the whole reason we're having these negotiations,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-011", "start": 2642.84, "end": 2646.18, "text": "no more wars and we will not allow Iran to get those", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-012", "start": 2646.18, "end": 2646.86, "text": "nuclear weapons.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-013", "start": 2646.96, "end": 2648.74, "text": "So there seems to be this massive disconnect.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-014", "start": 2649.14, "end": 2651.94, "text": "Joe Kent posted this, and I just want to read it to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-015", "start": 2651.94, "end": 2655.7, "text": "you. He said, step one in de -escalation must be restraining the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-016", "start": 2655.7, "end": 2660.56, "text": "Israelis. He said, otherwise all efforts to negotiate will follow this pattern.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-017", "start": 2660.94, "end": 2665.16, "text": "Well, President of the United States will announce a de -escalation and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-018", "start": 2665.16, "end": 2669.18, "text": "then Israel launches some major attack on oil infrastructure,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-019", "start": 2669.82, "end": 2670.86, "text": "desalinization plants.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-020", "start": 2671.08, "end": 2671.76, "text": "And that's what we've seen", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "3fd24025dc79b30d68856539fce197fdf6246bb6331ca1deaf93667b8ad648e4", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0059", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2615s", "time_label": "43:35", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0060", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "start": 2671.76, "end": 2691.34, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "now repeatedly in these past few weeks is that the United States says one thing and then the Israelis like go around quickly and launch some sort of attack on Iranian infrastructure. Like you mentioned, the oil and the black cloud hanging over Tehran. So do you agree with Joe Kent? Do you think that really the only way to de -escalate is to rein in the Israelis?", "word_count": 68, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-001", "start": 2671.76, "end": 2674.66, "text": "now repeatedly in these past few weeks is that the United States", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-002", "start": 2674.66, "end": 2678.8, "text": "says one thing and then the Israelis like go around quickly and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-003", "start": 2678.8, "end": 2681.52, "text": "launch some sort of attack on Iranian infrastructure.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-004", "start": 2681.6, "end": 2684.76, "text": "Like you mentioned, the oil and the black cloud hanging over Tehran.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-005", "start": 2684.86, "end": 2686.42, "text": "So do you agree with Joe Kent?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-006", "start": 2686.68, "end": 2690.2, "text": "Do you think that really the only way to de -escalate is", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-007", "start": 2690.2, "end": 2691.34, "text": "to rein in the Israelis?", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "3afecdf2c8a38a32c48216787e2c621f5409a25b8f9ea1c56272feda67d6fa3a", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0060", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2671s", "time_label": "44:31", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0061", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "start": 2692.1, "end": 2753.34, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "I completely agree with his assessment. So in the early days of the war, on the first day, a drone struck the Saudi Air Force facility in Saudi Arabia. And we assumed at first that it was Iranians. But later it was reported that actually this drone was coming in from Lebanon. So the Iranians launched a drone from Lebanon, right? So people speculate that Iranians did not know that this was initially a false flag to force Saudi Arabia into the war as quickly as possible. Per Carlson himself reported that he was told by confidential sources that the Qataris had arrested two Mossad agents who they suspected of sabotaging, of doing a sabotage operation in Qatar. Later the Qataris denied this. But, you know, this fits very much the Mossad M.O. Recently, there was a long -range missile strike on Diego Garcia. And, you know, And at first people were bewildered because we just assumed this was beyond the range of Iran's ballistic missiles.", "word_count": 167, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-001", "start": 2692.1, "end": 2694.12, "text": "I completely agree with his assessment.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-002", "start": 2694.34, "end": 2696.6, "text": "So in the early days of the war,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-003", "start": 2696.78, "end": 2702.52, "text": "on the first day, a drone struck the Saudi Air Force facility", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-004", "start": 2702.52, "end": 2703.64, "text": "in Saudi Arabia.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-005", "start": 2703.9, "end": 2706.38, "text": "And we assumed at first that it was Iranians.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-006", "start": 2706.44, "end": 2710.26, "text": "But later it was reported that actually this drone was coming in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-007", "start": 2710.26, "end": 2710.86, "text": "from Lebanon.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-008", "start": 2711.26, "end": 2714.88, "text": "So the Iranians launched a drone from Lebanon,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-009", "start": 2715.16, "end": 2717.08, "text": "right? So people speculate that Iranians did not know that this was", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-010", "start": 2717.08, "end": 2720.18, "text": "initially a false flag to force Saudi Arabia into the war as", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-011", "start": 2720.18, "end": 2720.98, "text": "quickly as possible.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-012", "start": 2721.26, "end": 2727, "text": "Per Carlson himself reported that he was told by confidential sources that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-013", "start": 2727, "end": 2731.14, "text": "the Qataris had arrested two Mossad agents who they suspected of sabotaging,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-014", "start": 2731.14, "end": 2734.38, "text": "of doing a sabotage operation in Qatar.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-015", "start": 2734.66, "end": 2736.22, "text": "Later the Qataris denied this.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-016", "start": 2736.46, "end": 2740.1, "text": "But, you know, this fits very much the Mossad M.O.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-017", "start": 2740.54, "end": 2745.8, "text": "Recently, there was a long -range missile strike on Diego Garcia.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-018", "start": 2746.18, "end": 2749.18, "text": "And, you know, And at first people were bewildered because we just", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-019", "start": 2749.18, "end": 2749.88, "text": "assumed this was", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-020", "start": 2749.88, "end": 2753.34, "text": "beyond the range of Iran's ballistic missiles.", "word_count": 7 } ], "text_sha256": "3c04efc8ce635a4642c1dedf7915cb2cb7f6c587ed2774db5d3610be541c4f07", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0061", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2692s", "time_label": "44:52", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0062", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "start": 2753.58, "end": 2816.18, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "But now it's been reported that actually these missiles were fired from an Israeli submarine. So it is in the best interest, according to Game Theory, for Israel to drag this war out as much as possible and to drag in as many players as possible. Ideally, Israel also wants to drag in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, and Pakistan as well. Because, from their perspective, this war is the best opportunity they have to achieve the greater Israel project. If they destroy the GCC, if they destroy Iran, then they are the only regional power left standing. And that is their ambition. But also, Sorry. No, go ahead. Yeah. But I will also add some nuance to this where the Iranians do not actually want this war to end as well. Because for the past few decades, they have had tremendous sanctions and they want sanctions relief. And they recognize that if they are to rebuild and modernize and forever protect themselves, they need to accomplish certain things.", "word_count": 168, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-001", "start": 2753.58, "end": 2758.1, "text": "But now it's been reported that actually these missiles were fired from", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-002", "start": 2758.1, "end": 2759.16, "text": "an Israeli submarine.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-003", "start": 2759.42, "end": 2761.48, "text": "So it is in the best interest,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-004", "start": 2761.54, "end": 2765.92, "text": "according to Game Theory, for Israel to drag this war out as", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-005", "start": 2765.92, "end": 2768.5, "text": "much as possible and to drag in as many players as possible.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-006", "start": 2768.74, "end": 2771.4, "text": "Ideally, Israel also wants to drag in Saudi Arabia,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-007", "start": 2771.66, "end": 2775.1, "text": "UAE, Turkey, and Pakistan as well.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-008", "start": 2775.42, "end": 2779.64, "text": "Because, from their perspective, this war is the best opportunity they have", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-009", "start": 2780.48, "end": 2782.06, "text": "to achieve the greater Israel project.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-010", "start": 2782.36, "end": 2783.92, "text": "If they destroy the GCC,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-011", "start": 2784.14, "end": 2787.56, "text": "if they destroy Iran, then they are the only regional power left", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-012", "start": 2787.56, "end": 2790.44, "text": "standing. And that is their ambition.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-013", "start": 2791.22, "end": 2792.86, "text": "But also, Sorry.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-014", "start": 2793, "end": 2793.58, "text": "No, go ahead.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-015", "start": 2793.66, "end": 2799.12, "text": "Yeah. But I will also add some nuance to this where the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-016", "start": 2799.12, "end": 2801.72, "text": "Iranians do not actually want this war to end as well.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-017", "start": 2801.88, "end": 2803.32, "text": "Because for the past few decades,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-018", "start": 2804.52, "end": 2808.6, "text": "they have had tremendous sanctions and they want sanctions relief.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-019", "start": 2809.18, "end": 2811.28, "text": "And they recognize that if they", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-020", "start": 2811.28, "end": 2814.46, "text": "are to rebuild and modernize and forever protect themselves,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-021", "start": 2814.8, "end": 2816.18, "text": "they need to accomplish certain things.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "83c6f44e8e6d25466273d6c93c6933b7c98ccfedb5e6ddf4ae03bcaefc00df39", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0062", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2753s", "time_label": "45:53", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0063", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "start": 2816.4, "end": 2860.36, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "The first thing they need to do is establish control over the Strait of Hormuz. And that would be the main economic lifeline where they can charge a 10 % toll on any passage through the Strait of Hormuz. So that's number one. Number two is they need to eliminate the American military presence in the GCC. So they need to America out of the Middle East. The third thing they need to do is establish credibility, meaning they need to do enough damage to Israel. So Israel will be forced to be respectful towards Iran. And then Israel and Iran can come to a peace treaty once the United States leaves. So that's really the long -term ambition of Iran as well. Is that doable?", "word_count": 126, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-001", "start": 2816.4, "end": 2820.36, "text": "The first thing they need to do is establish control over the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-002", "start": 2820.36, "end": 2820.92, "text": "Strait of Hormuz.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-003", "start": 2821.52, "end": 2824.66, "text": "And that would be the main economic lifeline where they can charge", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-004", "start": 2824.66, "end": 2829.16, "text": "a 10 % toll on any passage through the Strait of Hormuz.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-005", "start": 2829.38, "end": 2830.28, "text": "So that's number one.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-006", "start": 2830.42, "end": 2834.82, "text": "Number two is they need to eliminate the American military presence in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-007", "start": 2834.82, "end": 2835.28, "text": "the GCC.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-008", "start": 2835.84, "end": 2838.46, "text": "So they need to America out of the Middle East.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-009", "start": 2838.64, "end": 2842.24, "text": "The third thing they need to do is establish credibility,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-010", "start": 2842.52, "end": 2844.86, "text": "meaning they need to do enough damage to Israel.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-011", "start": 2844.98, "end": 2850.44, "text": "So Israel will be forced to be respectful towards Iran.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-012", "start": 2850.72, "end": 2855.46, "text": "And then Israel and Iran can come to a peace treaty once", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-013", "start": 2855.46, "end": 2856.24, "text": "the United States leaves.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-014", "start": 2856.44, "end": 2859.1, "text": "So that's really the long -term ambition of Iran as well.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-015", "start": 2859.24, "end": 2860.36, "text": "Is that doable?", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "83b2b26da7e5ad1540d5c52068e77a4c9c7cbd80a7cbec59aab2bc0cd3adcd7d", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0063", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2816s", "time_label": "46:56", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0064", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "start": 2860.76, "end": 2867.44, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "That Israel will ever submit to the greater good of other countries?", "word_count": 12, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-001", "start": 2860.76, "end": 2867.44, "text": "That Israel will ever submit to the greater good of other countries?", "word_count": 12 } ], "text_sha256": "7a9b3a2ee4a693ba87777b6440e7fea97fac5afd192d7e11627da66c83f95656", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0064", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2860s", "time_label": "47:40", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0065", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "start": 2869.12, "end": 2931.5, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Right. So if you look at the Greater Israel Project, it's very clear that it extends from the Nile to the Euphrates. It does not include Persia. Israel is not actually interested in Persia. So according to Game Theory, what Israel wants to do is knock out both the GCC and the United States. So people don't really understand this where people think that Israel's main objective is to knock out Iran. No, actually, Israel sees America as the main threat. There's a video, a viral video, of Netanyahu. And a journalist asked him, what book are you reading right now, Mr. Netanyahu? Netanyahu responds, I'm reading a book called Rome versus the Jews by Barry Strauss. And the book is about these three wars fought between the Romans and the Jews in the first century. And these were like brutal wars that wiped out most of the Jewish population in Europe at that time. And so the journalist then asked Netanyahu, why are you reading this book?", "word_count": 168, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-001", "start": 2869.12, "end": 2871.68, "text": "Right. So if you look at the Greater Israel Project,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-002", "start": 2872.12, "end": 2876.14, "text": "it's very clear that it extends from the Nile to the Euphrates.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-003", "start": 2876.3, "end": 2878.04, "text": "It does not include Persia.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-004", "start": 2878.3, "end": 2880.74, "text": "Israel is not actually interested in Persia.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-005", "start": 2881.56, "end": 2883.26, "text": "So according to Game Theory,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-006", "start": 2883.38, "end": 2887.44, "text": "what Israel wants to do is knock out both the GCC and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-007", "start": 2887.44, "end": 2889.48, "text": "the United States.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-008", "start": 2889.62, "end": 2895.2, "text": "So people don't really understand this where people think that Israel's main", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-009", "start": 2895.2, "end": 2896.5, "text": "objective is to knock out Iran.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-010", "start": 2896.74, "end": 2900.5, "text": "No, actually, Israel sees America as the main threat.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-011", "start": 2901, "end": 2903.04, "text": "There's a video, a viral video,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-012", "start": 2903.18, "end": 2903.82, "text": "of Netanyahu.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-013", "start": 2904.86, "end": 2906.32, "text": "And a journalist asked him,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-014", "start": 2906.4, "end": 2907.96, "text": "what book are you reading right now,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-015", "start": 2908.08, "end": 2909.38, "text": "Mr. Netanyahu?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-016", "start": 2910.2, "end": 2914.38, "text": "Netanyahu responds, I'm reading a book called Rome versus the Jews by", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-017", "start": 2914.38, "end": 2915.5, "text": "Barry Strauss.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-018", "start": 2915.66, "end": 2919.1, "text": "And the book is about these three wars fought between the Romans", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-019", "start": 2919.1, "end": 2921.52, "text": "and the Jews in the first century.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-020", "start": 2921.68, "end": 2925.3, "text": "And these were like brutal wars that wiped out most of the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-021", "start": 2925.3, "end": 2927.38, "text": "Jewish population in Europe at that time.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-022", "start": 2927.72, "end": 2929.32, "text": "And so the journalist then", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0065-chunk-023", "start": 2929.32, "end": 2931.5, "text": "asked Netanyahu, why are you reading this book?", "word_count": 8 } ], "text_sha256": "17242d287d189a405bb5cc5c6213d4e4b84a8c2cd7d1cbc26ef8a2ad6ffc0125", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0065", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2869s", "time_label": "47:49", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0066", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0066", "start": 2932.06, "end": 2952.64, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "And Netanyahu's response was, well, it didn't work out great for us the first time, okay? So this is how the Israelis think. They see, they understand like their main competitor in the Middle East is actually not Iran, but actually the United States. So this war is meant to actually destroy the American military presence in the Middle East. And so, I mean, yeah, just...", "word_count": 66, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-001", "start": 2932.06, "end": 2934.78, "text": "And Netanyahu's response was, well,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-002", "start": 2934.88, "end": 2936.62, "text": "it didn't work out great for us the first time,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-003", "start": 2936.7, "end": 2938.94, "text": "okay? So this is how the Israelis think.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-004", "start": 2939.06, "end": 2942.96, "text": "They see, they understand like their main competitor in the Middle East", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-005", "start": 2942.96, "end": 2945.22, "text": "is actually not Iran, but actually the United States.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-006", "start": 2945.32, "end": 2949.42, "text": "So this war is meant to actually destroy the American military presence", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-007", "start": 2949.42, "end": 2950.48, "text": "in the Middle East.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-008", "start": 2951.06, "end": 2952.2, "text": "And so, I mean, yeah,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0066-chunk-009", "start": 2952.3, "end": 2952.64, "text": "just...", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "5fbd025ceb308e8251660f32b7f77251e582984c6cf9f718af4c8abf3638f873", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0066", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2932s", "time_label": "48:52", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0067", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0067", "start": 2952.64, "end": 2993.14, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Yeah, it's very much like Game of Thrones. I keep mentioning there's this little finger character who is befriending these leaders and then leading them and advising them into their own self -destruction. If you know Game of Thrones, that would make sense. And so, I guess my question is, and it's not, you know, the people of Israel, it's the leaders of Israel who want this. These are, in my estimation, the bad guys. Is there any scenario in your game theory where the bad guys are punished and stop it? I know that's simplistic, but it's like what I pray for.", "word_count": 103, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-001", "start": 2952.64, "end": 2955.44, "text": "Yeah, it's very much like Game of Thrones.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-002", "start": 2955.66, "end": 2961.68, "text": "I keep mentioning there's this little finger character who is befriending these", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-003", "start": 2961.68, "end": 2965.64, "text": "leaders and then leading them and advising them into their own self", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-004", "start": 2965.64, "end": 2967.64, "text": "-destruction. If you know Game of Thrones,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-005", "start": 2967.82, "end": 2968.96, "text": "that would make sense.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-006", "start": 2969.3, "end": 2972.78, "text": "And so, I guess my question is,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-007", "start": 2973.12, "end": 2974.4, "text": "and it's not, you know,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-008", "start": 2974.42, "end": 2979, "text": "the people of Israel, it's the leaders of Israel who want this.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-009", "start": 2979.1, "end": 2981.04, "text": "These are, in my estimation,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-010", "start": 2981.22, "end": 2981.86, "text": "the bad guys.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-011", "start": 2982.98, "end": 2987.88, "text": "Is there any scenario in your game theory where the bad guys", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-012", "start": 2987.88, "end": 2989.94, "text": "are punished and stop it?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0067-chunk-013", "start": 2990.06, "end": 2993.14, "text": "I know that's simplistic, but it's like what I pray for.", "word_count": 11 } ], "text_sha256": "cc00af5f01ebe03f882bd71eff616a707fa833da281e6b1876d580162ad59463", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0067", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2952s", "time_label": "49:12", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0068", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0068", "start": 2994.94, "end": 3052.32, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Look, there's a lot of agency. And Donald Trump could have come to Jesus' moment and he strikes a deal with the Iranians and he restricts the Israelis, right? So Donald Trump says, for the greater good, I'm going to strike a deal with the GCC and Iran and we're going to limit Israel. Now, Israel has nuclear weapons so you can't attack Israel. But what the United States can do is we're going to pass laws that say you cannot be a dual citizen and sit in the US Congress. You cannot be a dual citizen and work in the national security apparatus of America. And we're not going to sell weapons to Israel and we're not going to finance the military activities of Israel. I mean, the reality is the Israelis have free health care and a lot of this is being financed by Americans who do not have free health care, by the way. Yeah,", "word_count": 158, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-001", "start": 2994.94, "end": 2996.44, "text": "Look, there's a lot of agency.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-002", "start": 2997.66, "end": 3002.76, "text": "And Donald Trump could have come to Jesus' moment and he strikes", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-003", "start": 3002.76, "end": 3007.14, "text": "a deal with the Iranians and he restricts the Israelis,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-004", "start": 3007.36, "end": 3008.84, "text": "right? So Donald Trump says,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-005", "start": 3009.2, "end": 3011.68, "text": "for the greater good, I'm going to strike a deal with the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-006", "start": 3011.68, "end": 3015.56, "text": "GCC and Iran and we're going to limit Israel.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-007", "start": 3015.76, "end": 3018.84, "text": "Now, Israel has nuclear weapons so you can't attack Israel.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-008", "start": 3019.14, "end": 3022.48, "text": "But what the United States can do is we're going to pass", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-009", "start": 3022.48, "end": 3028.04, "text": "laws that say you cannot be a dual citizen and sit in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-010", "start": 3028.04, "end": 3028.62, "text": "the US Congress.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-011", "start": 3029.58, "end": 3033.7, "text": "You cannot be a dual citizen and work in the national security", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-012", "start": 3033.7, "end": 3035.08, "text": "apparatus of America.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-013", "start": 3036.18, "end": 3039.98, "text": "And we're not going to sell weapons to Israel and we're not", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-014", "start": 3039.98, "end": 3044.66, "text": "going to finance the military activities of Israel.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-015", "start": 3044.96, "end": 3048.94, "text": "I mean, the reality is the Israelis have free health care and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-016", "start": 3048.94, "end": 3050.96, "text": "a lot of this is being financed by Americans who do not", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-017", "start": 3050.96, "end": 3051.98, "text": "have free health care, by the way.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0068-chunk-018", "start": 3052.06, "end": 3052.32, "text": "Yeah,", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "806eee61a9a83bfd98599a68d25b969d08002dcf9ec78b91355ac96a86904130", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0068", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=2994s", "time_label": "49:54", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0069", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0069", "start": 3052.44, "end": 3053.6, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "we know this.", "word_count": 3, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0069-chunk-001", "start": 3052.44, "end": 3053.6, "text": "we know this.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "8b2586d28eb458ace44f97ab7663e551ee58c59c5f2728aeff50b3040a76b3d2", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0069", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3052s", "time_label": "50:52", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0070", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "start": 3053.8, "end": 3060.76, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Yeah, exactly. And they have a space program. Why are we propping up a country that has a space program?", "word_count": 20, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0070-chunk-001", "start": 3053.8, "end": 3055.46, "text": "Yeah, exactly.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0070-chunk-002", "start": 3055.88, "end": 3057.66, "text": "And they have a space program.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0070-chunk-003", "start": 3057.96, "end": 3060.76, "text": "Why are we propping up a country that has a space program?", "word_count": 12 } ], "text_sha256": "665efbc3f67a49f0dec44a1da96c3bb0dc6ab07ad3ac8c5edf1cf71049e0a9e6", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0070", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3053s", "time_label": "50:53", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0071", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0071", "start": 3060.76, "end": 3076.12, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "It's incredibly frustrating because federal workers are not being paid at the airports. We, you know, just traveled this weekend and we walked through and it's heartbreaking to watch these people go without paychecks and know that we're spending all this money to bomb Iran. It's really hard to take.", "word_count": 50, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0071-chunk-001", "start": 3060.76, "end": 3064.86, "text": "It's incredibly frustrating because federal workers are not being paid at the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0071-chunk-002", "start": 3064.86, "end": 3068.68, "text": "airports. We, you know, just traveled this weekend and we walked through", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0071-chunk-003", "start": 3068.68, "end": 3073.04, "text": "and it's heartbreaking to watch these people go without paychecks and know", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0071-chunk-004", "start": 3073.04, "end": 3074.62, "text": "that we're spending all this money to bomb Iran.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0071-chunk-005", "start": 3074.78, "end": 3076.12, "text": "It's really hard to take.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "cf77c78e11c46cd2fda2592361994c28ed5e3e7495e7972766be59aba25d808d", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0071", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3060s", "time_label": "51:00", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0072", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0072", "start": 3076.28, "end": 3123.513, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "So, Professor, we're going to take a quick break and we're going to come back. We want to ask you about your next big prediction and also about something you said last week, which is that this war powers we could be entering into with President Trump could even lead to a potential Trump third term. We'll talk about all of that in a moment. But first, well, don't you hate when people say I told you so? Yeah, that's me, actually, because I did tell you. Sorry, but I told you that gold and silver were going to reap the benefits of excessive money printing. The Fed just printing money like crazy, overvalued markets, global unrest. It's here. It's happened. Gold and silver have both soared to all time highs. So I hope you called our friends at Lear Capital and you bought some. If you didn't, trust me, it's not too late. Experts are predicting even higher prices ahead.", "word_count": 161, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-001", "start": 3076.28, "end": 3079.08, "text": "So, Professor, we're going to take a quick break and we're going", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-002", "start": 3079.08, "end": 3079.4, "text": "to come back.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-003", "start": 3079.52, "end": 3082.02, "text": "We want to ask you about your next big prediction and also", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-004", "start": 3082.02, "end": 3084.62, "text": "about something you said last week,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-005", "start": 3084.7, "end": 3088.66, "text": "which is that this war powers we could be entering into with", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-006", "start": 3088.66, "end": 3092.34, "text": "President Trump could even lead to a potential Trump third term.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-007", "start": 3093.02, "end": 3094.82, "text": "We'll talk about all of that in a moment.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-008", "start": 3095.22, "end": 3098.04, "text": "But first, well, don't you hate when people say I told you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-009", "start": 3098.04, "end": 3100.14, "text": "so? Yeah, that's me, actually,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-010", "start": 3100.16, "end": 3101.76, "text": "because I did tell you.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-011", "start": 3101.88, "end": 3104.48, "text": "Sorry, but I told you that gold and silver were going to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-012", "start": 3104.48, "end": 3106.36, "text": "reap the benefits of excessive money printing.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-013", "start": 3106.42, "end": 3108.22, "text": "The Fed just printing money like crazy,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-014", "start": 3108.32, "end": 3110.42, "text": "overvalued markets, global unrest.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-015", "start": 3110.52, "end": 3111.04, "text": "It's here.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-016", "start": 3111.16, "end": 3111.74, "text": "It's happened.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-017", "start": 3111.84, "end": 3114.64, "text": "Gold and silver have both soared to all time highs.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-018", "start": 3115.06, "end": 3117.8, "text": "So I hope you called our friends at Lear Capital and you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-019", "start": 3117.8, "end": 3118.36, "text": "bought some.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-020", "start": 3118.48, "end": 3119.76, "text": "If you didn't, trust me,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-021", "start": 3119.82, "end": 3120.38, "text": "it's not too late.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-022", "start": 3120.48, "end": 3122.62, "text": "Experts are predicting even higher prices", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0072-chunk-023", "start": 3122.62, "end": 3123.513, "text": "ahead.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "fca1d7af60f36e8345a37ff28624168e83b24214bef3ea4508ac2e1dedf50479", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0072", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3076s", "time_label": "51:16", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0073", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "start": 3123.513, "end": 3176.51, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "It's going. Isn't it time, folks? Get yourself some gold and silver today. Call the best in the business. I personally use them. So does Natalie. We both do. And our kids do as well in their IRAs. Lear Capital, it's a free phone call. There's no obligation to purchase, just education information on protecting and growing your wealth with gold and silver. I'm sure there are many of you that have called and haven't purchased yet for whatever reason. Don't make the same mistake twice. Now is the time to get some gold shipped directly to you or shift some dollars in your retirement accounts over to physical gold and silver. It's easy to do. Natalie and I have done it for both and I've been extremely satisfied with Lear's knowledge, their service, their prices. I urge you to call today and learn more. Call them. 1 -800 -613 -3557 or go to learredacted.com and you can receive up to $20,000 in free bonus medals with a qualified purchase.", "word_count": 172, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-001", "start": 3123.513, "end": 3125.3, "text": "It's going.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-002", "start": 3125.52, "end": 3126.46, "text": "Isn't it time, folks?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-003", "start": 3126.56, "end": 3128.4, "text": "Get yourself some gold and silver today.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-004", "start": 3128.44, "end": 3129.78, "text": "Call the best in the business.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-005", "start": 3129.92, "end": 3131.1, "text": "I personally use them.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-006", "start": 3131.14, "end": 3131.66, "text": "So does Natalie.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-007", "start": 3131.8, "end": 3132.2, "text": "We both do.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-008", "start": 3132.28, "end": 3134.42, "text": "And our kids do as well in their IRAs.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-009", "start": 3134.8, "end": 3137.24, "text": "Lear Capital, it's a free phone call.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-010", "start": 3137.32, "end": 3138.66, "text": "There's no obligation to purchase,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-011", "start": 3138.8, "end": 3142.62, "text": "just education information on protecting and growing your wealth with gold and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-012", "start": 3142.62, "end": 3145.54, "text": "silver. I'm sure there are many of you that have called and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-013", "start": 3145.54, "end": 3147.06, "text": "haven't purchased yet for whatever reason.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-014", "start": 3147.54, "end": 3148.88, "text": "Don't make the same mistake twice.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-015", "start": 3149.04, "end": 3151.94, "text": "Now is the time to get some gold shipped directly to you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-016", "start": 3151.94, "end": 3155.88, "text": "or shift some dollars in your retirement accounts over to physical gold", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-017", "start": 3155.88, "end": 3156.28, "text": "and silver.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-018", "start": 3156.38, "end": 3157.12, "text": "It's easy to do.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-019", "start": 3157.5, "end": 3160.04, "text": "Natalie and I have done it for both and I've been extremely", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-020", "start": 3160.04, "end": 3162.26, "text": "satisfied with Lear's knowledge, their service,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-021", "start": 3162.34, "end": 3162.8, "text": "their prices.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-022", "start": 3162.88, "end": 3165.16, "text": "I urge you to call today and learn more.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-023", "start": 3165.26, "end": 3165.7, "text": "Call them.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-024", "start": 3165.72, "end": 3172.74, "text": "1 -800 -613 -3557 or go to learredacted.com and you can", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-025", "start": 3172.74, "end": 3176.12, "text": "receive up to $20,000 in free bonus medals with a qualified", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0073-chunk-026", "start": 3176.12, "end": 3176.51, "text": "purchase.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "7c52a80d1d7b11b4d030fca60172bcb98a858ac218a00aa9f366e5f306f508e5", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0073", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3123s", "time_label": "52:03", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0074", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0074", "start": 3176.51, "end": 3205.88, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "All right, we're back with Professor Zhang and to talk more about his predictions here and as well as possibly a Trump third term. Professor, before we get into the Trump third term piece of this, as you're gaming out this war now and things have changed I'm sure since this, the first three and a half weeks of this thing, where are you seeing your predictions pointing over the next month, maybe a year or so? Are there any predictions that you'd want to reveal here on our show?", "word_count": 90, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-001", "start": 3176.51, "end": 3180.8, "text": "All right, we're back with Professor Zhang and to talk more", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-002", "start": 3180.8, "end": 3185.02, "text": "about his predictions here and as well as possibly a Trump third", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-003", "start": 3185.02, "end": 3188.92, "text": "term. Professor, before we get into the Trump third term piece of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-004", "start": 3188.92, "end": 3192.6, "text": "this, as you're gaming out this war now and things have changed", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-005", "start": 3192.6, "end": 3195.7, "text": "I'm sure since this, the first three and a half weeks of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-006", "start": 3195.7, "end": 3199.98, "text": "this thing, where are you seeing your predictions pointing over the next", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-007", "start": 3199.98, "end": 3201.62, "text": "month, maybe a year or so?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-008", "start": 3201.8, "end": 3205.64, "text": "Are there any predictions that you'd want to reveal here on our", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0074-chunk-009", "start": 3205.64, "end": 3205.88, "text": "show?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "23a57fc0ac27fa306f7f005277c257f9235357867347b52ab0b24d4f8de88054", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0074", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3176s", "time_label": "52:56", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0075", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0075", "start": 3206.86, "end": 3282.08, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Yeah, so I will say that I think this war is heading in the direction of another Vietnam. You know, at that time it was a military war. You know, the three first wars were like, you know, there was a Japanese war and then the hacked and then the Americans deployed the Marines in a limited operation, possibly to secure coastline, possibly to take Karg Island, we don't know yet, but then this will lead to escalation because of some cause fallacy and mission creep where the military set up so that it wants to win a war and once it gets in a fight it's not gonna stop until it wins the war and that's what happened in Vietnam. So once these troops are sent no matter what happens whether or not they are successful in the first strike or not successful the Pentagon wants to finish the job basically and there'll be a lot of pressure from", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0075-chunk-001", "start": 3206.86, "end": 3211.66, "text": "Yeah, so I will say that I think this war is heading", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0075-chunk-002", "start": 3211.66, "end": 3213.36, "text": "in the direction of another Vietnam.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0075-chunk-003", "start": 3213.4, "end": 3215.78, "text": "You know, at that time it was a military war.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0075-chunk-004", "start": 3215.78, "end": 3221.36, "text": "You know, the three first wars were like,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0075-chunk-005", "start": 3221.36, "end": 3231.02, "text": "you know, there was a Japanese war and then the hacked and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0075-chunk-006", "start": 3231.02, "end": 3240.84, "text": "then the Americans deployed the Marines in a limited operation,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0075-chunk-007", "start": 3241.3, "end": 3246.78, "text": "possibly to secure coastline, possibly to take Karg Island,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0075-chunk-008", "start": 3246.94, "end": 3253.56, "text": "we don't know yet, but then this will lead to escalation because", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0075-chunk-009", "start": 3253.56, "end": 3258.3, "text": "of some cause fallacy and mission creep where the military set up", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0075-chunk-010", "start": 3258.3, "end": 3261.58, "text": "so that it wants to win a war and once it gets", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0075-chunk-011", "start": 3261.58, "end": 3264.72, "text": "in a fight it's not gonna stop until it wins the war", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0075-chunk-012", "start": 3264.72, "end": 3267.66, "text": "and that's what happened in Vietnam.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0075-chunk-013", "start": 3268.44, "end": 3272.02, "text": "So once these troops are sent no matter what happens whether or", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0075-chunk-014", "start": 3272.02, "end": 3275.68, "text": "not they are successful in the first strike or not successful the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0075-chunk-015", "start": 3275.68, "end": 3281.5, "text": "Pentagon wants to finish the job basically and there'll be a lot", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0075-chunk-016", "start": 3281.5, "end": 3282.08, "text": "of pressure from", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "fe1425b8827294ecdc93b690d2ac14a9f3f76399629e21753fc75fcbf4dfbc2a", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0075", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3206s", "time_label": "53:26", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0076", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076", "start": 3282.08, "end": 3314.62, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "the military on Donald Trump to institute a national draft and so I think he will have no choice in the matter but to institute a national draft in which case you will have riots throughout America and they have a plan for that right they want to deploy the National Guard across all major American cities by as early as April. And once that is in place once the National Guard is in place then Trump can declare the Emergency Powers Act right and then he will get his third term and as well as bypass the midterm elections in November.", "word_count": 102, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0076-chunk-001", "start": 3282.08, "end": 3286.6, "text": "the military on Donald Trump to institute a national draft and so", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0076-chunk-002", "start": 3286.6, "end": 3288.94, "text": "I think he will have no choice in the matter but to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0076-chunk-003", "start": 3288.94, "end": 3292.92, "text": "institute a national draft in which case you will have riots throughout", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0076-chunk-004", "start": 3292.92, "end": 3295.72, "text": "America and they have a plan for that right they want to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0076-chunk-005", "start": 3295.72, "end": 3300.68, "text": "deploy the National Guard across all major American cities by as early", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0076-chunk-006", "start": 3300.68, "end": 3301.32, "text": "as April.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0076-chunk-007", "start": 3302.4, "end": 3305.26, "text": "And once that is in place once the National Guard is in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0076-chunk-008", "start": 3305.26, "end": 3310.16, "text": "place then Trump can declare the Emergency Powers Act right and then", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0076-chunk-009", "start": 3310.16, "end": 3313.44, "text": "he will get his third term and as well as bypass the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0076-chunk-010", "start": 3313.44, "end": 3314.62, "text": "midterm elections in November.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "88a009147f2d1661dae207341e1aa7ac43a82009a4bd0b9bb36ce75aa5f25054", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0076", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3282s", "time_label": "54:42", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0077", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0077", "start": 3315.49, "end": 3319.83, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "So a third term without an election sort of like Zelensky basically.", "word_count": 12, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0077-chunk-001", "start": 3315.49, "end": 3319.83, "text": "So a third term without an election sort of like Zelensky basically.", "word_count": 12 } ], "text_sha256": "90bdd7481d62eb9c92decf9b53b049561c2ada25373dc6c9ac430d3b75821fa1", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0077", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3315s", "time_label": "55:15", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0078", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0078", "start": 3319.91, "end": 3360.55, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Well right I mean he already has a war without congressional declaration and so again I come back to we have rules and orders and all of them are just being steamrolled right now that it doesn't it. Right so what we have to do is we have to say to them hey we did that and you can hear mine despair. And the fact that it feels like you're not supposed to attack civilian living infrastructure oh we did that you're not supposed to attack civilians yes we did that you're not supposed to level a whole society in Gaza yeah we did that too. You're not supposed to have a war without congressional approval you're not I don't know what to do here right the fact that the rules don't matter and yet you can still see what's being played out in a game when there's no rules.", "word_count": 150, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0078-chunk-001", "start": 3319.91, "end": 3323.33, "text": "Well right I mean he already has a war without congressional declaration", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0078-chunk-002", "start": 3323.33, "end": 3328.81, "text": "and so again I come back to we have rules and orders", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0078-chunk-003", "start": 3328.81, "end": 3331.85, "text": "and all of them are just being steamrolled right now that it", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0078-chunk-004", "start": 3331.85, "end": 3332.39, "text": "doesn't it.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0078-chunk-005", "start": 3332.59, "end": 3333.17, "text": "Right so what we have to do is we have to say", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0078-chunk-006", "start": 3333.17, "end": 3334.45, "text": "to them hey we did that and you can hear mine despair.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0078-chunk-007", "start": 3334.69, "end": 3337.71, "text": "And the fact that it feels like you're not supposed to attack", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0078-chunk-008", "start": 3337.71, "end": 3342.61, "text": "civilian living infrastructure oh we did that you're not supposed to attack", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0078-chunk-009", "start": 3342.61, "end": 3345.67, "text": "civilians yes we did that you're not supposed to level a whole", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0078-chunk-010", "start": 3345.67, "end": 3347.73, "text": "society in Gaza yeah we did that too.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0078-chunk-011", "start": 3348.11, "end": 3351.25, "text": "You're not supposed to have a war without congressional approval you're not", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0078-chunk-012", "start": 3351.25, "end": 3354.33, "text": "I don't know what to do here right the fact that the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0078-chunk-013", "start": 3354.33, "end": 3358.21, "text": "rules don't matter and yet you can still see what's being played", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0078-chunk-014", "start": 3358.21, "end": 3360.55, "text": "out in a game when there's no rules.", "word_count": 8 } ], "text_sha256": "43f9cd654f917e07eef199cd9fccfa772c6fffbc9fbe0e34fcbea3114bcf209b", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0078", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3319s", "time_label": "55:19", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0079", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0079", "start": 3361.54, "end": 3425.14, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Right. very worrying that this war was started in a way that was not the way the war started in 2003. So in 2003, the Bush administration spent months rallying public support. They wanted congressional approval. They spoke before the United Nations and provided suspicious, specious evidence of weapons of mass destruction, but they provided evidence nonetheless, okay? So the American government in 2003 made tremendous efforts to win over the American public, to seek congressional approval, and to also win public opinion, okay, to speak before the United Nations. None of this is true today. The Trump administration went in, and even today, they have not provided actually a reason why they made the first strike. Trump has said that, well, it was because it was misled by his advisor, Steve Woodcock, Jared Kushner, Peter Hesseff. And then Marco Rubio has said that... Well, it's because the Israelis are gonna attack first, and then the Iranians are gonna respond by attacking us, and so we have to preempt the Israelis.", "word_count": 171, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-001", "start": 3361.54, "end": 3367.46, "text": "Right. very worrying that this war was started in a way that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-002", "start": 3367.46, "end": 3369.8, "text": "was not the way the war started in 2003.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-003", "start": 3370, "end": 3376.14, "text": "So in 2003, the Bush administration spent months rallying public support.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-004", "start": 3376.28, "end": 3377.68, "text": "They wanted congressional approval.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-005", "start": 3378.04, "end": 3383.12, "text": "They spoke before the United Nations and provided suspicious,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-006", "start": 3383.48, "end": 3386.1, "text": "specious evidence of weapons of mass destruction,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-007", "start": 3386.36, "end": 3388.32, "text": "but they provided evidence nonetheless,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-008", "start": 3388.64, "end": 3393.58, "text": "okay? So the American government in 2003 made tremendous efforts to win", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-009", "start": 3393.58, "end": 3395.68, "text": "over the American public, to seek congressional approval,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-010", "start": 3396.06, "end": 3397.96, "text": "and to also win public opinion,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-011", "start": 3398.18, "end": 3399.86, "text": "okay, to speak before the United Nations.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-012", "start": 3400.04, "end": 3402.42, "text": "None of this is true today.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-013", "start": 3402.64, "end": 3404.76, "text": "The Trump administration went in,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-014", "start": 3404.94, "end": 3409.64, "text": "and even today, they have not provided actually a reason why they", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-015", "start": 3409.64, "end": 3410.82, "text": "made the first strike.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-016", "start": 3411, "end": 3412.2, "text": "Trump has said that, well,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-017", "start": 3412.28, "end": 3413.96, "text": "it was because it was misled by his advisor,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-018", "start": 3414.28, "end": 3416.8, "text": "Steve Woodcock, Jared Kushner, Peter Hesseff.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-019", "start": 3416.86, "end": 3418.7, "text": "And then Marco Rubio has said that...", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-020", "start": 3418.76, "end": 3420.62, "text": "Well, it's because the Israelis are gonna attack first,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-021", "start": 3421, "end": 3422.6, "text": "and then the Iranians are gonna respond", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0079-chunk-022", "start": 3422.6, "end": 3425.14, "text": "by attacking us, and so we have to preempt the Israelis.", "word_count": 11 } ], "text_sha256": "e12c05ad895ca29b0b76d400ad0f416e6b678f9bdcfda90aae9787b4e1fffd8a", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0079", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3361s", "time_label": "56:01", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0080", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0080", "start": 3422.6, "end": 3425.14, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "", "word_count": 0, "timed_chunks": [], "text_sha256": "e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0080", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3422s", "time_label": "57:02", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0081", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0081", "start": 3427.29, "end": 3427.69, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "Wow.", "word_count": 1, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0081-chunk-001", "start": 3427.29, "end": 3427.69, "text": "Wow.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "b39bad84a899b08e37fe414d2b88753f430f0a13d709e40604af3e4543825dde", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0081", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3427s", "time_label": "57:07", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0082", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0082", "start": 3427.91, "end": 3470.65, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "I mean, you know, I normally wouldn't want to point out The Economist magazine, professor. I'm not a fan of that liberal rag, normally. But at the airport, just reading the front cover, I think the headline, the front cover of The Economist magazine this past week is, a war with no plan. And I think you just hit the nail on the head. I mean, what is the plan here? Is there a plan? Do you see that there is an end game? Because people are asking, what's the goal here? Well, we're here in nuclear... You know, no more nuclear weapons. Well, they never had nuclear weapons. They weren't building nuclear weapons. It's to help the Iranian people. So you help the Iranian people by killing their children and bombing their oil and desalinization infrastructure? Like, none of it makes sense. Do you see any of it making sense?", "word_count": 151, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0082-chunk-001", "start": 3427.91, "end": 3431.37, "text": "I mean, you know, I normally wouldn't want to point out The", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0082-chunk-002", "start": 3431.37, "end": 3433.05, "text": "Economist magazine, professor.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0082-chunk-003", "start": 3433.29, "end": 3435.61, "text": "I'm not a fan of that liberal rag,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0082-chunk-004", "start": 3435.71, "end": 3437.31, "text": "normally. But at the airport,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0082-chunk-005", "start": 3437.43, "end": 3438.45, "text": "just reading the front cover,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0082-chunk-006", "start": 3438.65, "end": 3442.49, "text": "I think the headline, the front cover of The Economist magazine this", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0082-chunk-007", "start": 3442.49, "end": 3444.59, "text": "past week is, a war with no plan.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0082-chunk-008", "start": 3445.53, "end": 3447.87, "text": "And I think you just hit the nail on the head.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0082-chunk-009", "start": 3447.99, "end": 3449.53, "text": "I mean, what is the plan here?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0082-chunk-010", "start": 3449.61, "end": 3449.99, "text": "Is there a plan?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0082-chunk-011", "start": 3449.99, "end": 3452.97, "text": "Do you see that there is an end game?", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0082-chunk-012", "start": 3453.09, "end": 3454.73, "text": "Because people are asking, what's the goal here?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0082-chunk-013", "start": 3454.87, "end": 3456.15, "text": "Well, we're here in nuclear...", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0082-chunk-014", "start": 3456.15, "end": 3457.55, "text": "You know, no more nuclear weapons.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0082-chunk-015", "start": 3457.69, "end": 3458.97, "text": "Well, they never had nuclear weapons.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0082-chunk-016", "start": 3459.23, "end": 3460.79, "text": "They weren't building nuclear weapons.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0082-chunk-017", "start": 3461.03, "end": 3462.51, "text": "It's to help the Iranian people.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0082-chunk-018", "start": 3462.71, "end": 3465.61, "text": "So you help the Iranian people by killing their children and bombing", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0082-chunk-019", "start": 3465.61, "end": 3467.53, "text": "their oil and desalinization infrastructure?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0082-chunk-020", "start": 3467.97, "end": 3469.05, "text": "Like, none of it makes sense.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0082-chunk-021", "start": 3469.17, "end": 3470.65, "text": "Do you see any of it making sense?", "word_count": 8 } ], "text_sha256": "d90d15dbcd3bdfee30606a0b8386a44b46f75428554a9491fa9c63706c754be0", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0082", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3427s", "time_label": "57:07", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0083", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0083", "start": 3470.85, "end": 3490.43, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "But let me just point out, having that within weeks of the start of the war is something different. We had to wait years in the Iraq war to get this kind of... Yeah. We had to wait years in the Iraq war to get this kind of narrative. We can at least have it from strike one. So there's my... I've been so pessimistic this whole interview, so I wanted to point out that I can't see silver linings.", "word_count": 80, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0083-chunk-001", "start": 3470.85, "end": 3472.01, "text": "But let me just point out,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0083-chunk-002", "start": 3472.13, "end": 3475.77, "text": "having that within weeks of the start of the war is something", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0083-chunk-003", "start": 3475.77, "end": 3479.01, "text": "different. We had to wait years in the Iraq war to get", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0083-chunk-004", "start": 3479.01, "end": 3479.87, "text": "this kind of...", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0083-chunk-005", "start": 3479.87, "end": 3480.33, "text": "Yeah. We had to wait years in the Iraq war to get", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0083-chunk-006", "start": 3480.33, "end": 3480.33, "text": "this kind of narrative.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0083-chunk-007", "start": 3480.61, "end": 3483.91, "text": "We can at least have it from strike one.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0083-chunk-008", "start": 3484.13, "end": 3485.37, "text": "So there's my...", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0083-chunk-009", "start": 3485.37, "end": 3488.09, "text": "I've been so pessimistic this whole interview,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0083-chunk-010", "start": 3488.21, "end": 3490.43, "text": "so I wanted to point out that I can't see silver linings.", "word_count": 12 } ], "text_sha256": "725a5f994dfdba044b93b935895d40342fa100125455fdc7117d704c2e9a651e", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0083", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3470s", "time_label": "57:50", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0084", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084", "start": 3491.25, "end": 3544.57, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Look, I mean, if you just look at America's history in the Middle East for the past 20 years, what they did in Iraq, what they did in Libya and Syria, I think there is a plan. The plan is to balkanize Iran into ethnic enclaves and destroy Iran's limited water infrastructure. Basically, destroy the reservoirs, the power plants, and have these different ethnic groups fight over water for the next few decades. It's really to destroy Persia as a civilization, and that's exactly what they did in Iraq. So remember, in 2003, the war was won very quickly, and then Paul Bremer was appointed to oversee the transition. And the second act, okay, the second thing he did was something called the De -Baptification Act, which said that if you were a member of the Baptist party... You were not allowed to work in government, you were not allowed to work in the military, you were not allowed to work in the police.", "word_count": 164, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0084-chunk-001", "start": 3491.25, "end": 3494.43, "text": "Look, I mean, if you just look at America's history in the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0084-chunk-002", "start": 3494.43, "end": 3495.67, "text": "Middle East for the past 20 years,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0084-chunk-003", "start": 3495.95, "end": 3497.53, "text": "what they did in Iraq,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0084-chunk-004", "start": 3497.67, "end": 3499.61, "text": "what they did in Libya and Syria,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0084-chunk-005", "start": 3499.85, "end": 3500.67, "text": "I think there is a plan.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0084-chunk-006", "start": 3500.83, "end": 3507.37, "text": "The plan is to balkanize Iran into ethnic enclaves and destroy Iran's", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0084-chunk-007", "start": 3507.37, "end": 3509.63, "text": "limited water infrastructure.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0084-chunk-008", "start": 3510.13, "end": 3512.93, "text": "Basically, destroy the reservoirs, the power plants,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0084-chunk-009", "start": 3513.13, "end": 3517.57, "text": "and have these different ethnic groups fight over water for the next", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0084-chunk-010", "start": 3517.57, "end": 3518.11, "text": "few decades.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0084-chunk-011", "start": 3518.55, "end": 3520.87, "text": "It's really to destroy Persia as a civilization,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0084-chunk-012", "start": 3521.29, "end": 3523.19, "text": "and that's exactly what they did in Iraq.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0084-chunk-013", "start": 3523.51, "end": 3526.73, "text": "So remember, in 2003, the war was won very quickly,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0084-chunk-014", "start": 3526.85, "end": 3531.49, "text": "and then Paul Bremer was appointed to oversee the transition.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0084-chunk-015", "start": 3531.87, "end": 3533.31, "text": "And the second act, okay,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0084-chunk-016", "start": 3533.45, "end": 3536.45, "text": "the second thing he did was something called the De -Baptification Act,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0084-chunk-017", "start": 3536.61, "end": 3539.85, "text": "which said that if you were a member of the Baptist party...", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0084-chunk-018", "start": 3539.85, "end": 3541.81, "text": "You were not allowed to work in government,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0084-chunk-019", "start": 3541.99, "end": 3543.15, "text": "you were not allowed to work in the military,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0084-chunk-020", "start": 3543.31, "end": 3543.87, "text": "you were not allowed to", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0084-chunk-021", "start": 3543.87, "end": 3544.57, "text": "work in the police.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "09fe82f144be3975a4b57c2c34281023bdb99d7dd00b826e8c8966bdc095dc5c", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0084", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3491s", "time_label": "58:11", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0085", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0085", "start": 3544.79, "end": 3582.59, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "The problem with that is that everyone who worked in government, everyone who worked in the military, everyone who worked in the police was a member of the Baptist party. And so with that one order, it destroyed the nation state of Iraq. It destroyed the government of Iraq and its ability to deliver basic services to the Iraqi people. And this led to massive sectarian violence. That's still raging today. It's still going on in Iraq. So I think that's the end goal in Iran, to do what... To do in Iran what they did in Iraq and Libya and Syria. But they can't come out and say this because the entire world would be disgusted with this plan.", "word_count": 120, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0085-chunk-001", "start": 3544.79, "end": 3548.67, "text": "The problem with that is that everyone who worked in government,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0085-chunk-002", "start": 3548.95, "end": 3550.25, "text": "everyone who worked in the military,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0085-chunk-003", "start": 3550.49, "end": 3553.23, "text": "everyone who worked in the police was a member of the Baptist", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0085-chunk-004", "start": 3553.23, "end": 3555.55, "text": "party. And so with that one order,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0085-chunk-005", "start": 3555.73, "end": 3559.09, "text": "it destroyed the nation state of Iraq.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0085-chunk-006", "start": 3559.33, "end": 3562.19, "text": "It destroyed the government of Iraq and its ability to deliver basic", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0085-chunk-007", "start": 3562.19, "end": 3565.15, "text": "services to the Iraqi people.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0085-chunk-008", "start": 3565.41, "end": 3567.63, "text": "And this led to massive sectarian violence.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0085-chunk-009", "start": 3568.35, "end": 3569.63, "text": "That's still raging today.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0085-chunk-010", "start": 3569.85, "end": 3570.49, "text": "It's still going on in Iraq.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0085-chunk-011", "start": 3570.81, "end": 3573.21, "text": "So I think that's the end goal in Iran,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0085-chunk-012", "start": 3573.31, "end": 3573.83, "text": "to do what...", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0085-chunk-013", "start": 3573.83, "end": 3576.43, "text": "To do in Iran what they did in Iraq and Libya and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0085-chunk-014", "start": 3576.43, "end": 3579.95, "text": "Syria. But they can't come out and say this because the entire", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0085-chunk-015", "start": 3579.95, "end": 3582.59, "text": "world would be disgusted with this plan.", "word_count": 7 } ], "text_sha256": "f5b752a0b4faf04f587b303a0003cbb235f61cfa06e2785ccba0174df77eae79", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0085", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3544s", "time_label": "59:04", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0086", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0086", "start": 3583.62, "end": 3613.96, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "I guess we'll get you out of here on this, Professor. We haven't really talked about the media propaganda piece of all of this, which is really ramped into overdrive. You heard over the past few days, the same publications that were telling us in the Ukraine war that Russia had run out of ballistic missiles is the same media that's now talking about... Telling us that Iran has run out of ballistic missiles and they are being hindered and they're being shattered. And this will wrap up very, very soon. How do you... When you analyze the media propaganda arm of all of this, how do you see it unfolding?", "word_count": 111, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0086-chunk-001", "start": 3583.62, "end": 3585.2, "text": "I guess we'll get you out of here on this,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0086-chunk-002", "start": 3585.28, "end": 3588.9, "text": "Professor. We haven't really talked about the media propaganda piece of all", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0086-chunk-003", "start": 3588.9, "end": 3591.54, "text": "of this, which is really ramped into overdrive.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0086-chunk-004", "start": 3591.56, "end": 3592.82, "text": "You heard over the past few days,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0086-chunk-005", "start": 3592.98, "end": 3596.4, "text": "the same publications that were telling us in the Ukraine war that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0086-chunk-006", "start": 3596.4, "end": 3599.62, "text": "Russia had run out of ballistic missiles is the same media that's", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0086-chunk-007", "start": 3599.62, "end": 3599.96, "text": "now talking about...", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0086-chunk-008", "start": 3599.98, "end": 3603.14, "text": "Telling us that Iran has run out of ballistic missiles and they", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0086-chunk-009", "start": 3603.14, "end": 3605.1, "text": "are being hindered and they're being shattered.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0086-chunk-010", "start": 3605.28, "end": 3606.9, "text": "And this will wrap up very,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0086-chunk-011", "start": 3606.96, "end": 3607.46, "text": "very soon.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0086-chunk-012", "start": 3607.76, "end": 3608.46, "text": "How do you...", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0086-chunk-013", "start": 3608.46, "end": 3612.9, "text": "When you analyze the media propaganda arm of all of this,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0086-chunk-014", "start": 3612.96, "end": 3613.96, "text": "how do you see it unfolding?", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "c3f2e087a0dffdd9f19f3aeefed5bddb777d540688f11c47e715477625f38a2d", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0086", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3583s", "time_label": "59:43", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0087", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0087", "start": 3615.27, "end": 3688.21, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Right. So I think you're exactly correct in that the media will just be as propagandistic in this war against Iran as it was against Ukraine. So the problem with this, though... Unfortunately, Washington, D.C. has become an insular bubble. And so if you are negative, if you voice any dissent, if you're critical, like Joe Kent, well, you're pushed out of the bubble very quickly. And so basically, everyone in Washington, D.C. is drinking their own Kool -Aid, getting high on their own supply. And this is very problematic because it will lead to bad decision making. And this is what we saw in Ukraine, where... I mean, it was suicidal for Ukraine to launch counteroffensive against a heavily fortified Russian position. And by launching three counteroffensive that led nowhere, that accomplished no military objectives, the Ukrainians lost over about a million men of fighting age. But unfortunately, because the deep state, because Washington, D.C. is able to control the media narrative.", "word_count": 166, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-001", "start": 3615.27, "end": 3620.15, "text": "Right. So I think you're exactly correct in that the media will", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-002", "start": 3620.15, "end": 3625.35, "text": "just be as propagandistic in this war against Iran as it was", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-003", "start": 3625.35, "end": 3626.29, "text": "against Ukraine.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-004", "start": 3627.67, "end": 3629.81, "text": "So the problem with this,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-005", "start": 3629.81, "end": 3633.51, "text": "though... Unfortunately, Washington, D.C.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-006", "start": 3633.57, "end": 3634.75, "text": "has become an insular bubble.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-007", "start": 3635.03, "end": 3637.63, "text": "And so if you are negative,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-008", "start": 3637.83, "end": 3639.67, "text": "if you voice any dissent,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-009", "start": 3639.69, "end": 3641.13, "text": "if you're critical, like Joe Kent,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-010", "start": 3641.29, "end": 3644.39, "text": "well, you're pushed out of the bubble very quickly.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-011", "start": 3644.77, "end": 3648.41, "text": "And so basically, everyone in Washington,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-012", "start": 3648.47, "end": 3648.71, "text": "D.C.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-013", "start": 3648.73, "end": 3650.03, "text": "is drinking their own Kool -Aid,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-014", "start": 3650.17, "end": 3652.03, "text": "getting high on their own supply.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-015", "start": 3652.37, "end": 3655.21, "text": "And this is very problematic because it will lead to bad decision", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-016", "start": 3655.21, "end": 3658.75, "text": "making. And this is what we saw in Ukraine,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-017", "start": 3658.97, "end": 3665.69, "text": "where... I mean, it was suicidal for Ukraine to launch counteroffensive against", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-018", "start": 3665.69, "end": 3667.43, "text": "a heavily fortified Russian position.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-019", "start": 3667.79, "end": 3672.49, "text": "And by launching three counteroffensive that led nowhere,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-020", "start": 3672.85, "end": 3674.77, "text": "that accomplished no military objectives,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-021", "start": 3675.33, "end": 3679.09, "text": "the Ukrainians lost over about a million men of fighting age.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-022", "start": 3679.79, "end": 3683.99, "text": "But unfortunately, because the deep state,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-023", "start": 3684.11, "end": 3686.03, "text": "because Washington, D.C.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-024", "start": 3686.09, "end": 3686.17, "text": "is", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0087-chunk-025", "start": 3686.17, "end": 3688.21, "text": "able to control the media narrative.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "9707c96499f338f0a4789eabbb877f3fe5247b83bdd30d9dcd8cc633e51d4317", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0087", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3615s", "time_label": "1:00:15", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0088", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0088", "start": 3688.75, "end": 3737.45, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Yeah. They're aware of this. And so this war in Ukraine is dragging on for no particular reason, even though it's led to the destruction of Ukraine as a nation state, and even though this war is not winnable. And we can see a similar situation in Iran, where the war is being lost, where it's clear that the Iranians refuse to give up and they have clear escalation control. But Donald Trump is watching Fox News and he's watching, you know, NBC and CNN and CBS News. And he's telling them exactly what he wants to hear, which is this war is going great. The Iranian people love you. The Iranian people want democratic change. And one more day and we've got this. The Iranians are so close to collapse and we just stick on, we just fight on for one more week. We've got this. And then like five years later, we're still at this stupid war.", "word_count": 159, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0088-chunk-001", "start": 3688.75, "end": 3690.19, "text": "Yeah. They're aware of this.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0088-chunk-002", "start": 3690.41, "end": 3693.47, "text": "And so this war in Ukraine is dragging on for no particular", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0088-chunk-003", "start": 3693.47, "end": 3698.53, "text": "reason, even though it's led to the destruction of Ukraine as a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0088-chunk-004", "start": 3698.53, "end": 3701.13, "text": "nation state, and even though this war is not winnable.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0088-chunk-005", "start": 3701.37, "end": 3706.51, "text": "And we can see a similar situation in Iran,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0088-chunk-006", "start": 3706.69, "end": 3708.05, "text": "where the war is being lost,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0088-chunk-007", "start": 3708.27, "end": 3711.49, "text": "where it's clear that the Iranians refuse to give up and they", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0088-chunk-008", "start": 3711.49, "end": 3712.99, "text": "have clear escalation control.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0088-chunk-009", "start": 3713.39, "end": 3716.15, "text": "But Donald Trump is watching Fox News and he's watching,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0088-chunk-010", "start": 3716.25, "end": 3719.25, "text": "you know, NBC and CNN and CBS News.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0088-chunk-011", "start": 3719.71, "end": 3721.65, "text": "And he's telling them exactly what he wants to hear,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0088-chunk-012", "start": 3721.73, "end": 3722.91, "text": "which is this war is going great.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0088-chunk-013", "start": 3723.23, "end": 3724.31, "text": "The Iranian people love you.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0088-chunk-014", "start": 3724.45, "end": 3726.25, "text": "The Iranian people want democratic change.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0088-chunk-015", "start": 3726.61, "end": 3728.91, "text": "And one more day and we've got this.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0088-chunk-016", "start": 3729.03, "end": 3731.81, "text": "The Iranians are so close to collapse and we just stick on,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0088-chunk-017", "start": 3731.87, "end": 3733.93, "text": "we just fight on for one more week.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0088-chunk-018", "start": 3734.11, "end": 3734.97, "text": "We've got this.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0088-chunk-019", "start": 3735.11, "end": 3736.17, "text": "And then like five years later,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0088-chunk-020", "start": 3736.25, "end": 3736.53, "text": "we're", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0088-chunk-021", "start": 3736.53, "end": 3737.45, "text": "still at this stupid war.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "5e08cf3b71562acc7661af19a3d25ccabe7cb16db24443b0ce0d2d1bf579ebbd", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0088", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3688s", "time_label": "1:01:28", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0089", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0089", "start": 3736.53, "end": 3737.45, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "", "word_count": 0, "timed_chunks": [], "text_sha256": "e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0089", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3736s", "time_label": "1:02:16", "tags": [ "unclear" ] }, { "id": "seg-0090", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0090", "start": 3738.96, "end": 3747.48, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "Well, Professor, thank you for like staying awake for us and joining us on this show. I know the time zones are really, really...", "word_count": 24, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0090-chunk-001", "start": 3738.96, "end": 3744.66, "text": "Well, Professor, thank you for like staying awake for us and joining", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0090-chunk-002", "start": 3744.66, "end": 3745.64, "text": "us on this show.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0090-chunk-003", "start": 3745.74, "end": 3746.92, "text": "I know the time zones are really,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0090-chunk-004", "start": 3746.98, "end": 3747.48, "text": "really...", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "07a46ed820aa172b0b198619499863863a50ecf2b55ad8e06909eddf3a62a1ad", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0090", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3738s", "time_label": "1:02:18", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0091", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091", "start": 3747.48, "end": 3805.1, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "Sorry. Before we end, I just want to give a quick shout out to Tucker Carlson, okay? Sure. Because people don't remember this, but we could have been in this situation in January 2020, because that's when Trump ordered the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad. And this was clearly an act of war. And it seemed as though the Americans were going to follow us up with airstrikes against Iran. So we should have been in this situation in January, but what happened was, Tucker Carlson, on Fox News, using his huge platform every day, he explained why this war would be a disaster for America. I think he even flew down to Mar -a -Lago to talk to Trump personally, okay? But Tucker Carlson saved us from nuclear war in January 2020, and for that, was fired from Fox News. And people don't remember what a heroic act that was. Because he's the only broadcaster in a major platform that came out.", "word_count": 165, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0091-chunk-001", "start": 3747.48, "end": 3751.94, "text": "Sorry. Before we end, I just want to give a quick shout", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0091-chunk-002", "start": 3751.94, "end": 3752.9, "text": "out to Tucker Carlson, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0091-chunk-003", "start": 3753.08, "end": 3754.32, "text": "Sure. Because people don't remember this,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0091-chunk-004", "start": 3754.46, "end": 3758.84, "text": "but we could have been in this situation in January 2020,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0091-chunk-005", "start": 3758.84, "end": 3764.84, "text": "because that's when Trump ordered the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0091-chunk-006", "start": 3764.84, "end": 3767.4, "text": "Baghdad. And this was clearly an act of war.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0091-chunk-007", "start": 3767.58, "end": 3770.22, "text": "And it seemed as though the Americans were going to follow us", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0091-chunk-008", "start": 3770.22, "end": 3771.52, "text": "up with airstrikes against Iran.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0091-chunk-009", "start": 3771.68, "end": 3773.94, "text": "So we should have been in this situation in January,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0091-chunk-010", "start": 3774.04, "end": 3776.16, "text": "but what happened was, Tucker Carlson,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0091-chunk-011", "start": 3776.16, "end": 3779.9, "text": "on Fox News, using his huge platform every day,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0091-chunk-012", "start": 3780.02, "end": 3784.86, "text": "he explained why this war would be a disaster for America.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0091-chunk-013", "start": 3785.34, "end": 3788, "text": "I think he even flew down to Mar -a -Lago to talk", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0091-chunk-014", "start": 3788, "end": 3789, "text": "to Trump personally, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0091-chunk-015", "start": 3789.16, "end": 3793.96, "text": "But Tucker Carlson saved us from nuclear war in January 2020,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0091-chunk-016", "start": 3794.1, "end": 3796.36, "text": "and for that, was fired from Fox News.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0091-chunk-017", "start": 3796.64, "end": 3800.66, "text": "And people don't remember what a heroic act that was.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0091-chunk-018", "start": 3800.78, "end": 3803.42, "text": "Because he's the only broadcaster in a", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0091-chunk-019", "start": 3803.42, "end": 3805.1, "text": "major platform that came out.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "1c5c833a72b7f5a2a936cedd07d11839557d86ef749d0783ce65d3aa6f971f18", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0091", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3747s", "time_label": "1:02:27", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0092", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0092", "start": 3805.82, "end": 3811.58, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "to speak out against the war and great personal risk yes he continues to do that at great", "word_count": 18, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0092-chunk-001", "start": 3805.82, "end": 3810.22, "text": "to speak out against the war and great personal risk yes he", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0092-chunk-002", "start": 3810.22, "end": 3811.58, "text": "continues to do that at great", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "92c7dd37aa36323e67aa476a2fd9a5fa8eadbf2b7269f58dbe51632bcbd4b663", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0092", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3805s", "time_label": "1:03:25", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0093", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0093", "start": 3811.58, "end": 3852.88, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "personal risk so yeah yeah and then speaking out against the ukraine war and the the united states involvement in that you know you know that's why yes that and that's why he got fired from fox news um clearly professor um yeah 100 one of the few voices on national television who was calling out these neocons and this boondoggle that would have been a disaster for the united states so thank you for that uh professor thank you so much for the wacky time zones and and burning the midnight oil um to be up with us we really really appreciate it thank you for your incredible work we want to drive everyone to your sub stack into your youtube channel um it's remarkable so thank you so much professor we'd love to have you back really appreciate it", "word_count": 141, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0093-chunk-001", "start": 3811.58, "end": 3814.76, "text": "personal risk so yeah yeah and then speaking out against the ukraine", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0093-chunk-002", "start": 3814.76, "end": 3818.48, "text": "war and the the united states involvement in that you know you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0093-chunk-003", "start": 3818.48, "end": 3821.76, "text": "know that's why yes that and that's why he got fired from", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0093-chunk-004", "start": 3821.76, "end": 3826.74, "text": "fox news um clearly professor um yeah 100 one of the few", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0093-chunk-005", "start": 3826.74, "end": 3830.92, "text": "voices on national television who was calling out these neocons and this", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0093-chunk-006", "start": 3830.92, "end": 3834.1, "text": "boondoggle that would have been a disaster for the united states so", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0093-chunk-007", "start": 3834.1, "end": 3837.7, "text": "thank you for that uh professor thank you so much for the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0093-chunk-008", "start": 3837.7, "end": 3841.76, "text": "wacky time zones and and burning the midnight oil um to be", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0093-chunk-009", "start": 3841.76, "end": 3844.26, "text": "up with us we really really appreciate it thank you for your", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0093-chunk-010", "start": 3844.26, "end": 3847.28, "text": "incredible work we want to drive everyone to your sub stack into", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0093-chunk-011", "start": 3847.28, "end": 3851.02, "text": "your youtube channel um it's remarkable so thank you so much professor", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0093-chunk-012", "start": 3851.02, "end": 3852.88, "text": "we'd love to have you back really appreciate it", "word_count": 9 } ], "text_sha256": "e3cec00eb719aff63d2dd1d7d4886a3624376fe07c7d7910d49728606a00ee16", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0093", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3811s", "time_label": "1:03:31", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0094", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0094", "start": 3852.88, "end": 3857.86, "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "text": "yeah no i i love talking to you guys yeah i mean uh i would love to come back we've been looking", "word_count": 22, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0094-chunk-001", "start": 3852.88, "end": 3855.82, "text": "yeah no i i love talking to you guys yeah i mean", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0094-chunk-002", "start": 3855.82, "end": 3857.86, "text": "uh i would love to come back we've been looking", "word_count": 10 } ], "text_sha256": "ee0630c9fcbf3f400daa5f81f61caf9cd542cb130d1917ec229adbfe126682be", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0094", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3852s", "time_label": "1:04:12", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0095", "source_ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0095", "start": 3857.86, "end": 3864.18, "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "text": "forward to it so yes open invitation thanks professor yeah anytime you're welcome so thank you so much really appreciate it", "word_count": 21, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0095-chunk-001", "start": 3857.86, "end": 3861.86, "text": "forward to it so yes open invitation thanks professor yeah anytime you're", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0095-chunk-002", "start": 3861.86, "end": 3864.18, "text": "welcome so thank you so much really appreciate it", "word_count": 9 } ], "text_sha256": "e816ef89d4ac1d1ce2f862bb8869b240d779f7510b79230f059595c14fa695c5", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-pvhuffwtu3i/transcript/#seg-0095", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvHUFfwtU3I&t=3857s", "time_label": "1:04:17", "tags": [ "exchange" ] } ], "interactions": [ { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0002" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "Clayton introduces the Iran war as spiraling after strikes, troop deployments, Hormuz claims, and Jiang's own Substack warning that U.S. boots on the ground now seem likely, then asks where the situation stands.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted host Clayton Morris", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0, "end": 60.72, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Well, the war against Iran has begun to spiral out of control, it would seem, over the past few days. Of course, we saw President Trump announcing that talks with Iran have gone very well after, of course, a massive bom..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 60.92, "end": 105.89, "time_label": "1:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Trump has asked for $200 billion from Congress, signaling that he intends to fight a long war. Well, we're thrilled now to have here on the show Professor Jiang. He's the author of Predictive History on sub -stack. Welc..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang answers that Trump's daily narratives do not alter the underlying escalation ladder: Israel, Iran, the United States, and Gulf states all have incentives or declared positions that keep pushing the war upward.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 107.11, "end": 171.89, "time_label": "1:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So Trump, these past three weeks, have been over the plate. Every single day, he comes up with a new narrative. But the reality on the ground is that this war is following, an escalation ladder. And it seems that..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 168.47, "end": 171.89, "time_label": "2:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "Natalie asks how Jiang understands his sudden internet celebrity, the practical effect of his predictions on ordinary families, and the public's fear-driven response to his model.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted host Natalie Morris", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 172.47, "end": 223.07, "time_label": "2:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now, you've become a bit of an internet celebrity because you have this ability to see things at a higher level than the rest of us. So while the rest of us are like, oh, he said this, maybe this is happening. And what..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 221.31, "end": 223.07, "time_label": "3:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang explains predictive history as a two-year game-theory thought experiment that unexpectedly gained attention after three predictions appeared to pan out; he distinguishes that surprise from what he sees as a coordinated campaign against his teaching style and Israel critique.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 223.76, "end": 282.62, "time_label": "3:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, sure. So for the past two years, I've been developing a new system of predictive modeling where I take game theory and I make predictions about how world events will turn out. And by making these predictions, I ca..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 282.86, "end": 344.34, "time_label": "4:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And so I've received a lot of attention online. And there are two types of attention. The first is that there seems to be a coordinated spirit campaign against me, mainly by individuals who believe that I am maybe attac..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang separates coordinated attacks from organic anger and says both are partly reactions to fear, confusion, and resentment over how quickly his channel grew.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 344.48, "end": 393.632, "time_label": "5:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So that is the smear campaign. But there's also an organic anger directed at me. I think a lot of it is fear about how this war will turn out and anger at the fact that I'm sort of using a tragedy, a global tragedy, to..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 393.632, "end": 447.94, "time_label": "6:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I myself am also confused by the attention I've been getting. You know, when I first started this YouTube channel, it was mainly to try to build an online community where I can exchange my ideas with others. And my wife..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "Clayton directly asks whether Jiang is part of the deep state or serving a Chinese Communist Party agenda because he criticizes Israel while staying quiet about China.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted host Clayton Morris", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 448.32, "end": 464.42, "time_label": "7:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So to be clear, you're not part of the deep state. You're not part of... I've seen some people being critical saying he's part of the Chinese Communist Party and therefore he has an agenda. He's not being critical of Ch..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang says the criticism that he is quiet about China is correct, but explains it as a practical consequence of living and working there with a family and a school that could be punished, not as a desire to become Chinese propaganda.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 465.06, "end": 511.28, "time_label": "7:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay, first of all, I've been very mute about China. And the reality is that I live and work in China. If I were to say anything offensive, about China, then my school would get into a lot of trouble. And quite frankly,..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 511.28, "end": 524.52, "time_label": "8:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I think like the criticism of me about being mute, my criticism of the Chinese Communist Party is correct. But it's just because I'm working in the reality that is China. Okay. Yeah." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0015" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "The hosts move back from Jiang's critics to the war, stressing that many people are dying and that Jiang's tone sounds like grim responsibility rather than satisfaction.", "speaker_attribution": "Clayton Morris and Natalie Morris", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 524.74, "end": 552.38, "time_label": "8:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Yeah. Well, thank you for that. And yeah, I wanted to thank you, Natalie, for bringing that up. And we wanted to address that kind of off the top because I know you've been getting hit really hard with certain people on..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 552.5, "end": 590.66, "time_label": "9:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And if I may, I'd like to add this because we also are parents of three. And when I watch your content, it seems very much not about what you want to happen because we also have three kids. This is not the world we want..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang says the apparent success of his prediction made him angry and sleepless, but also deepened his belief that predictive models can restore agency to people trying to build a better world for their children.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 592.12, "end": 643.46, "time_label": "9:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, so thank you so much for that, Natalie. So, you know, when my predictions are correct, you know, on February 28th, the Americans and Israelis attacked Tehran and this launched the war that we are in now. I couldn'..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang lays out the three-strand method behind predictive history: game theory for player incentives, historical patterning for analogies, and eschatology for actors who think they are serving God.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 643.76, "end": 698.44, "time_label": "10:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So, you know, we have 8 billion people in this world and most people don't know what's going on and they choose to put their head in the sand. And what I'm trying to do with my YouTube channel is trying to say to people..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 698.76, "end": 753.72, "time_label": "11:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So as we know, a lot of what's happening in the Middle East is driven by Israel's desire to achieve the Greater Israel Project. That, you know, right now Israel is being dominated by religious fanatics who believe that..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 754.16, "end": 815.26, "time_label": "12:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Historical patterns just means can we think about previous wars and compare, contrast how this war will play out based on previous wars? And so what I've done is I've looked at the Vietnam War I've looked at the Pelopon..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 815.26, "end": 822.04, "time_label": "13:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "you're able to figure out where these three converge together you are then able to make accurate predictions about how things should progress." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0021" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "Clayton asks Jiang to explain Iran's escalation control and how it changes the United States and Israel's effort to escalate the war.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted host Clayton Morris", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 823.23, "end": 865.91, "time_label": "13:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Now you've said Iran's edge in all of this I believe and if I'm misquoting you please forgive me is escalation control. Like they so we were talking about the escalation ladder maybe you can lay that out because I think..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang defines escalation ladder and argues that Iran, despite lacking nuclear weapons, is acting like the calmer fighter: calibrated strikes, diplomacy, public opinion, and selective pressure let it control escalation better than the blunt American-Israeli shock-and-awe approach.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 866.75, "end": 922.19, "time_label": "14:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So the escalation ladder is just the idea that once you start a fight it develops its own momentum its own logic. You can't really stop it. So no two guys go into an argument thinking that they'll actually exchan..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 922.55, "end": 976.89, "time_label": "15:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So I did a lot of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu before and in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu it's all about maintaining calm maintaining control. If you are able to maintain calm control you can even defeat a bigger opponent who is stronger..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 977.13, "end": 1038.27, "time_label": "16:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And so by doing that what issue what Iran is able to demonstrate is confidence in its arsenal. It's able to maintain diplomacy political diplomacy as well as global public opinion. They're also able to divide and conque..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0025" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "Natalie asks why there seem to be no consequences when the United States and Israel escalate by striking civilians and civilian infrastructure.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted host Natalie Morris", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1038.87, "end": 1074.07, "time_label": "17:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now what's frustrating for me is that the United States and Israel can escalate in these horrific ways and there's no international consequences. So they can destroy Gaza en masse. They can hit a school of young girls a..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang answers that the consequence is morale: an unjustified war erodes soldiers' and public will, which matters because any attempt to win will require ground troops and could trigger domestic revolt.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1074.71, "end": 1142.55, "time_label": "17:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So there is actually a major consequence. A major consequence is the morale of your population which affects your will to fight. Right? So if people believe that it is a good cause they are willing to commit them..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1142.55, "end": 1206.25, "time_label": "19:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "is that Gerald Ford is now out of commission for the next two years because the damage was so extensive. And the theory is there's an investigation as to whether the sailors deliberately set fire in a laundry room to de..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1206.43, "end": 1237.15, "time_label": "20:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Possibly Cork Island but also possibly a naval base in the south east of Iran. Once you commit the ground invasion then you're going to have a popular uprising throughout America. Once you have this social media footage..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "Clayton asks about Jiang's inverted-pyramid criticism of American air-power dependence and the apparent inevitability of ground forces for regime change.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted host Clayton Morris", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 1237.29, "end": 1269.64, "time_label": "20:37", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Let's talk about this air power because you've been critical of I think you've referred to it as the inverted pyramid where the United States really relies on air power more than anything whether it's drones whether it'..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang says a serious Iran invasion would require years of preparation and millions of troops, but the American military-industrial complex instead built expensive air, carrier, and missile-defense systems unsuited to an asymmetric opponent willing to fight back.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 1271.79, "end": 1329.77, "time_label": "21:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So if you want to win this war what you do is you spend two years to stage two million troops around Iran. Okay. So you have 500,000 troops in Pakistan ready to assault from southeast from the southeast corner. Y..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1329.77, "end": 1386.83, "time_label": "22:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Because Iraq was a balance to Iran. So Saddam Hussein miscalculated. So the problem with the American military machine is that it's run by the military industrial complex and this is something that Eisenhower warned abo..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1386.83, "end": 1450.773, "time_label": "23:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Iran is the failure of the military industrial complex to prepare for a modern war where your opponent is willing to fight back asymmetrically, right? So we see these air defense systems, the Patriot system, the THAAD s..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang concludes the previous military-industrial critique by saying Iranian hits on supposedly advanced systems show U.S. corruption and unreadiness.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1450.773, "end": 1466.59, "time_label": "24:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, we were told it was unhittable. Unhittable. Yes, exactly. And the Iranians hit them with like pretty limited radar. So it just shows you the corruption of the military industrial complex right now in the United St..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0036" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "The show moves through a break and sponsor segment, then Natalie restates Jiang's earlier predictions and asks why he anticipated a war with Iran and U.S. defeat.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted host Natalie Morris", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 1468.06, "end": 1527.36, "time_label": "24:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Let's take a quick break. And then I want to ask you more about game theory and specific your prediction about the United States eventually losing this war. So we'll be back in just a moment. You may have seen the conve..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 1527.56, "end": 1583.46, "time_label": "25:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "With Rumble Wallet, you control the money. Not a bank, not a government, not a tech company and not even Rumble can touch it. It's yours and only yours. You can buy and save digital assets like Bitcoin and Tether Gold...." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 1583.46, "end": 1636.86, "time_label": "26:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "and a YouTuber with 2 million subscribers in a short order because of his ability to recall public events before they happen. I guess recall is not the right word. So some things that he had said in 2024 is that Trump w..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang grounds his prediction in Millennium Challenge and Operation Prosperity Guardian: the Pentagon learned that asymmetric swarms and opponents who cannot be scared break its model, but bureaucracy filters out bad news and repeats shock-and-awe until credibility traps it in another Vietnam.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 1637.56, "end": 1701.36, "time_label": "27:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So the key piece of evidence is 20 years ago, about 2002, the American military, the Pentagon, ran a war game called the Millennium Challenge, the Millennium Challenge. And the idea is to look at how America coul..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 1701.6, "end": 1755.66, "time_label": "28:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And then in that iteration, in the final iteration, the Pentagon won, okay? So this shows you two things. The first thing is that the Pentagon is not ready to fight a war asymmetrically. It doesn't have the creativity,..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 1755.74, "end": 1811.32, "time_label": "29:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "The Houthis hid in their mountains. And the Houthis refused to surrender. And the Americans didn't know what to do because they were so used to being able to scare their opponents, to bribe them, to intimidate them, to..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 1811.68, "end": 1861.637, "time_label": "30:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "These past weeks have shown shock and awe doesn't really work, but they don't know what else to do. So they keep on doing it. And now what they're doing is to think about sending the Marines in for an infamous landing b..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0041" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang extends the Vietnam comparison into a sunk-cost image: the Pentagon will double down rather than admit imperial failure.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 1861.637, "end": 1888.12, "time_label": "31:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I mean, the entire world would no longer see America as an empire, as invincible. And the Pentagon could not really countenance this possibility. So what they'll do is they'll double down. It's very much like going to a..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0043" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "Natalie asks how morale matters when American antiwar feeling seems powerless but Palestinians, Iranians, and aligned populations experience the stakes as existential.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted host Natalie Morris", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 1888.48, "end": 1946.36, "time_label": "31:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Can I just stay on this issue of morale before you change the subject? One more question about that. Because it feels like it doesn't matter that we're all so upset about the war, but you're saying it does. But on the o..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 1946.36, "end": 1952.96, "time_label": "32:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Palestinians in Gaza have been living for decades is horrific, and those are stories that are not told to us, but it's very motivating to them." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang says Iranian morale is high because Persians understand themselves through an ancient Zoroastrian truth-and-righteousness tradition: they refuse preemption, refuse aggression, and gain an inner fire from believing they fight for the good.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 1954.46, "end": 2005.42, "time_label": "32:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. Look, I think that the Iranians have extremely high morale, and the reason why is they think they are on the side of truth. You know, what people forget about the Iranians is that these are the Persians, and the P..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2005.68, "end": 2060.7, "time_label": "33:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But the Persian people are like, no, we have to live the truth. We refuse to submit to the lie. So if they attack us, we'll fight back. But we will never ever be the aggressor. We will never ever choose the path of viol..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2059.28, "end": 2060.7, "time_label": "34:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "Clayton invokes David Icke's view that the Iran war is part of a decades-long occult plan for AI control, money loss, rights loss, and Patriot-Act-like expansion of state power, then asks whether Jiang sees the same larger game.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted host Clayton Morris", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 2061.74, "end": 2112.2, "time_label": "34:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "You brought up David Icke earlier. And, you know, we're big fans of David Icke here on this show. He's been a guest a number of times. One of the things that he's been saying is that this Iranian war, this collapse of I..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2112.5, "end": 2128.88, "time_label": "35:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "They are issuing in this, ushering in this new era of control just like the Patriot Act. So we can get all into the finite details about air power and this drone struck this particular oil plant and this. But really, it..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang agrees with Icke on the direction of the future toward digital currency, AI surveillance, economic collapse, reset, and Greater Israel, but rejects a fully scripted view because game theory must preserve the agency of players like Trump and Putin.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 2129.51, "end": 2188.15, "time_label": "35:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. I mean, I completely agree with David Icke's assessment. I think this is the future we're heading towards. My main issue with David Icke is that he thinks this is all deliberate. This is all scripted. This is all..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 2188.43, "end": 2234.07, "time_label": "36:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So on where the world is heading, I agree with David Icke. But I will also point out that according to game theory, we cannot discount certain players in this game. So for example, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are ma..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "Clayton accepts the broader plan plus individual agency distinction and asks whether the war is leading to a massive energy lockdown beyond COVID-style restrictions.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted host Clayton Morris", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 2234.41, "end": 2285.69, "time_label": "37:14", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Yeah, no, I see what you mean. And I think you're spot on with that because there are individual players in this that have agency and can manipulate. There is a broader framework, whatever you want to call it, this 2030..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang says the elite priority is less an energy lockdown than destruction of excess wealth through civil war or a false flag on financial data centers that could also be blamed on Iran to support a draft.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2286.84, "end": 2342.18, "time_label": "38:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I actually think the real issue that the global elite need to resolve is the financial system, meaning that over the past 10, 20 years, they printed too much money. And there are too many individuals who are millionaire..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Clayton restates Jiang's answer as financial lockdown: terrifying because stores of value could be wiped out.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted host Clayton Morris", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2342.68, "end": 2354.32, "time_label": "39:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "That's terrifying. I mean, yeah, maybe not the lockdown in the COVID sense of the term, but locking us down financially by wiping out huge stores of value. That's absolutely terrifying." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0054" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "Natalie asks about the Epstein class as an ongoing mechanism of blackmail, satanic abuse, and war promotion.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted host Natalie Morris", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2354.68, "end": 2404.57, "time_label": "39:14", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yes. I do want to talk about these dark forces a little bit more because the Epstein class is clearly a real thing. And how much of the Epstein class do you think is just that they're satanic perverts doing things for t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang says people focus too much on lurid Pizzagate details and miss Epstein's alleged operational function as a geopolitical, financial, arms-trafficking, and money-laundering agent of a transnational elite.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 2405.98, "end": 2471.94, "time_label": "40:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So the Epstein class, I think people focus on the wrong thing, which is they focus on pizza gate, right? They focus on the idea that Epstein was talking about, like beef jerky, pizza and grape soda. And that's what capt..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 2472.1, "end": 2528.04, "time_label": "41:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But a lot of, if you just connect the dots, it suggests that he was in a certain way involved in 9 -11. You know, he was a neighbor to Howard Lugnick in Manhattan, right? So, and they were neighbors and their numbers we..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0058" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang continues the Epstein answer by defining a transnational elite above the nation-state as an alliance of capital, secret societies, and elite families, with Epstein as a parasite-like representative of transnational capital.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 2528.26, "end": 2584.58, "time_label": "42:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And their response was, well, we wanted money from him, right? So these are billionaires trying to beg Epstein for money. So something's wrong with our current conception of the world. And so what I will say is there is..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 2584.82, "end": 2614.76, "time_label": "43:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And if you look at his emails, what he will say is there were three major Jewish families in Europe. They were the Rothschilds, the Epsteins, and the Gutmans. And he said, he told Peter Thiel, I represent the Rothschild..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0060" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "Clayton cites Joe Kent's resignation and claim that intelligence agencies said Iran lacked nuclear ambitions, then asks whether de-escalation requires restraining Israel because Israeli attacks keep undermining U.S. de-escalation rhetoric.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted host Clayton Morris", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 2615.38, "end": 2671.76, "time_label": "43:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "You know, Joe Kent last week, I think it was last week now, time is flying so quickly, resigned from the Trump administration basically trying to prevent this war in Iran. He says that everybody, all of the intelligence..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "segment_id": "seg-0060", "start": 2671.76, "end": 2691.34, "time_label": "44:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "now repeatedly in these past few weeks is that the United States says one thing and then the Israelis like go around quickly and launch some sort of attack on Iranian infrastructure. Like you mentioned, the oil and the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0063" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang agrees that Israel has incentive to drag out the war and pull in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, and Pakistan, but adds that Iran also has long-term aims: Hormuz control, expelling U.S. forces from the GCC, and winning enough credibility to force respect and a later peace.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 2692.1, "end": 2753.34, "time_label": "44:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I completely agree with his assessment. So in the early days of the war, on the first day, a drone struck the Saudi Air Force facility in Saudi Arabia. And we assumed at first that it was Iranians. But later it was repo..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 2753.58, "end": 2816.18, "time_label": "45:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But now it's been reported that actually these missiles were fired from an Israeli submarine. So it is in the best interest, according to Game Theory, for Israel to drag this war out as much as possible and to drag in a..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 2816.4, "end": 2860.36, "time_label": "46:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "The first thing they need to do is establish control over the Strait of Hormuz. And that would be the main economic lifeline where they can charge a 10 % toll on any passage through the Strait of Hormuz. So that's numbe..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0064" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "Natalie asks whether Israel would ever submit to the greater good of other countries.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted host Natalie Morris", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "segment_id": "seg-0064", "start": 2860.76, "end": 2867.44, "time_label": "47:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That Israel will ever submit to the greater good of other countries?" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0066" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang answers Natalie by saying the Greater Israel Project does not need Persia; in his game theory, Israel's deeper competitor is the United States, whose Middle East military presence this war can destroy.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "segment_id": "seg-0065", "start": 2869.12, "end": 2931.5, "time_label": "47:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So if you look at the Greater Israel Project, it's very clear that it extends from the Nile to the Euphrates. It does not include Persia. Israel is not actually interested in Persia. So according to Game Theory,..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0066", "segment_id": "seg-0066", "start": 2932.06, "end": 2952.64, "time_label": "48:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And Netanyahu's response was, well, it didn't work out great for us the first time, okay? So this is how the Israelis think. They see, they understand like their main competitor in the Middle East is actually not Iran,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0067" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "Natalie compares Israel's leadership to a Littlefinger figure leading allies into self-destruction and asks whether Jiang's model leaves any scenario where the bad guys are punished and stopped.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted host Natalie Morris", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0067", "segment_id": "seg-0067", "start": 2952.64, "end": 2993.14, "time_label": "49:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, it's very much like Game of Thrones. I keep mentioning there's this little finger character who is befriending these leaders and then leading them and advising them into their own self -destruction. If you know Ga..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0068" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang says there is agency: Trump could strike a deal with Iran and the GCC and restrain Israel through U.S. law, security appointments, weapons sales, and military financing rather than attacking a nuclear Israel.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0068", "segment_id": "seg-0068", "start": 2994.94, "end": 3052.32, "time_label": "49:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, there's a lot of agency. And Donald Trump could have come to Jesus' moment and he strikes a deal with the Iranians and he restricts the Israelis, right? So Donald Trump says, for the greater good, I'm going to str..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0069", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0071" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "The hosts agree and vent frustration that Americans without free health care and unpaid federal workers are financing Israel's war and space program while bombing Iran.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted hosts", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0069", "segment_id": "seg-0069", "start": 3052.44, "end": 3053.6, "time_label": "50:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "we know this." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0070", "segment_id": "seg-0070", "start": 3053.8, "end": 3060.76, "time_label": "50:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Yeah, exactly. And they have a space program. Why are we propping up a country that has a space program?" }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0071", "segment_id": "seg-0071", "start": 3060.76, "end": 3076.12, "time_label": "51:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "It's incredibly frustrating because federal workers are not being paid at the airports. We, you know, just traveled this weekend and we walked through and it's heartbreaking to watch these people go without paychecks an..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0072" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Clayton transitions to a break and previews questions about Jiang's next prediction and a possible Trump third term under war powers, then reads sponsor copy.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted host Clayton Morris", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0072", "segment_id": "seg-0072", "start": 3076.28, "end": 3123.513, "time_label": "51:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So, Professor, we're going to take a quick break and we're going to come back. We want to ask you about your next big prediction and also about something you said last week, which is that this war powers we could be ent..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0074" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "After sponsor copy, Clayton returns and asks Jiang for predictions over the next month or year of the Iran war and possibly a Trump third term.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted host Clayton Morris", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "segment_id": "seg-0073", "start": 3123.513, "end": 3176.51, "time_label": "52:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "It's going. Isn't it time, folks? Get yourself some gold and silver today. Call the best in the business. I personally use them. So does Natalie. We both do. And our kids do as well in their IRAs. Lear Capital, it's a f..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0074", "segment_id": "seg-0074", "start": 3176.51, "end": 3205.88, "time_label": "52:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "All right, we're back with Professor Zhang and to talk more about his predictions here and as well as possibly a Trump third term. Professor, before we get into the Trump third term piece of this, as you're gaming out t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0075", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang predicts the war is moving toward another Vietnam: limited Marine deployments will trigger mission creep, pressure for a national draft, riots, National Guard deployment, emergency powers, and a path to bypass elections or secure a third Trump term.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0075", "segment_id": "seg-0075", "start": 3206.86, "end": 3282.08, "time_label": "53:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, so I will say that I think this war is heading in the direction of another Vietnam. You know, at that time it was a military war. You know, the three first wars were like, you know, there was a Japanese war and th..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076", "segment_id": "seg-0076", "start": 3282.08, "end": 3314.62, "time_label": "54:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "the military on Donald Trump to institute a national draft and so I think he will have no choice in the matter but to institute a national draft in which case you will have riots throughout America and they have a plan..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0077", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0078" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "The hosts press the democratic-rule breakdown: Clayton compares it to Zelensky staying without an election, while Natalie says every rule of war and congressional authorization is being steamrolled.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted hosts", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0077", "segment_id": "seg-0077", "start": 3315.49, "end": 3319.83, "time_label": "55:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So a third term without an election sort of like Zelensky basically." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0078", "segment_id": "seg-0078", "start": 3319.91, "end": 3360.55, "time_label": "55:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Well right I mean he already has a war without congressional declaration and so again I come back to we have rules and orders and all of them are just being steamrolled right now that it doesn't it. Right so what we hav..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0079", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0080" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang says the Iran war is more worrying than 2003 because the Bush administration at least spent months manufacturing public, congressional, and UN support, whereas Trump began without providing a clear reason and officials offer contradictory justifications.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0079", "segment_id": "seg-0079", "start": 3361.54, "end": 3425.14, "time_label": "56:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. very worrying that this war was started in a way that was not the way the war started in 2003. So in 2003, the Bush administration spent months rallying public support. They wanted congressional approval. They sp..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0080", "segment_id": "seg-0080", "start": 3422.6, "end": 3425.14, "time_label": "57:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0081" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "A brief non-substantive reaction follows Jiang's comparison of the current war to 2003.", "speaker_attribution": "unknown", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0081", "segment_id": "seg-0081", "start": 3427.29, "end": 3427.69, "time_label": "57:07", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Wow." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0082", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0083" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "The hosts ask whether there is any coherent endgame behind a war even mainstream outlets frame as planless, while Natalie notes that at least the no-plan narrative has emerged immediately rather than years later.", "speaker_attribution": "Clayton Morris and Natalie Morris", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0082", "segment_id": "seg-0082", "start": 3427.91, "end": 3470.65, "time_label": "57:07", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "I mean, you know, I normally wouldn't want to point out The Economist magazine, professor. I'm not a fan of that liberal rag, normally. But at the airport, just reading the front cover, I think the headline, the front c..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0083", "segment_id": "seg-0083", "start": 3470.85, "end": 3490.43, "time_label": "57:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But let me just point out, having that within weeks of the start of the war is something different. We had to wait years in the Iraq war to get this kind of... Yeah. We had to wait years in the Iraq war to get this kind..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0085" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang answers that there is a plan: balkanize Iran, destroy water and power infrastructure, and reproduce the Iraq/Libya/Syria model of civilizational destruction and state collapse while hiding the plan because the world would find it disgusting.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084", "segment_id": "seg-0084", "start": 3491.25, "end": 3544.57, "time_label": "58:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, I mean, if you just look at America's history in the Middle East for the past 20 years, what they did in Iraq, what they did in Libya and Syria, I think there is a plan. The plan is to balkanize Iran into ethnic e..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0085", "segment_id": "seg-0085", "start": 3544.79, "end": 3582.59, "time_label": "59:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "The problem with that is that everyone who worked in government, everyone who worked in the military, everyone who worked in the police was a member of the Baptist party. And so with that one order, it destroyed the nat..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0086" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "Clayton asks how Jiang sees media propaganda unfolding as outlets repeat Ukraine-war claims about a foe running out of missiles and being near collapse.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted host Clayton Morris", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0086", "segment_id": "seg-0086", "start": 3583.62, "end": 3613.96, "time_label": "59:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "I guess we'll get you out of here on this, Professor. We haven't really talked about the media propaganda piece of all of this, which is really ramped into overdrive. You heard over the past few days, the same publicati..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0087", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0088" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang says Iran-war media propaganda will resemble Ukraine-war propaganda because Washington's insular bubble expels dissent, controls narratives, encourages bad decisions, and feeds Trump claims that Iran is close to collapse even as the war is unwinnable.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0087", "segment_id": "seg-0087", "start": 3615.27, "end": 3688.21, "time_label": "1:00:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So I think you're exactly correct in that the media will just be as propagandistic in this war against Iran as it was against Ukraine. So the problem with this, though... Unfortunately, Washington, D.C. has becom..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0088", "segment_id": "seg-0088", "start": 3688.75, "end": 3737.45, "time_label": "1:01:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. They're aware of this. And so this war in Ukraine is dragging on for no particular reason, even though it's led to the destruction of Ukraine as a nation state, and even though this war is not winnable. And we can..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0089" ], "kind": "unclear", "summary": "Near-empty residue from Jiang's preceding answer.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0089", "segment_id": "seg-0089", "start": 3736.53, "end": 3737.45, "time_label": "1:02:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0090" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Clayton begins to close the interview and thanks Jiang for joining despite the time zones.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted host Clayton Morris", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0090", "segment_id": "seg-0090", "start": 3738.96, "end": 3747.48, "time_label": "1:02:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Well, Professor, thank you for like staying awake for us and joining us on this show. I know the time zones are really, really..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0092" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang interrupts the close to credit Tucker Carlson with preventing war in January 2020 after the Soleimani assassination by using his Fox platform and personal access to Trump to argue that war with Iran would be disastrous.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091", "segment_id": "seg-0091", "start": 3747.48, "end": 3805.1, "time_label": "1:02:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Sorry. Before we end, I just want to give a quick shout out to Tucker Carlson, okay? Sure. Because people don't remember this, but we could have been in this situation in January 2020, because that's when Trump ordered..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0092", "segment_id": "seg-0092", "start": 3805.82, "end": 3811.58, "time_label": "1:03:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "to speak out against the war and great personal risk yes he continues to do that at great" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0093", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0094", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0095" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Clayton agrees that Carlson spoke against neocons and the Ukraine war at personal risk, thanks Jiang, promotes Jiang's channels, and the interview closes with mutual willingness to return.", "speaker_attribution": "Redacted host Clayton Morris and Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0093", "segment_id": "seg-0093", "start": 3811.58, "end": 3852.88, "time_label": "1:03:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "personal risk so yeah yeah and then speaking out against the ukraine war and the the united states involvement in that you know you know that's why yes that and that's why he got fired from fox news um clearly professor..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0094", "segment_id": "seg-0094", "start": 3852.88, "end": 3857.86, "time_label": "1:04:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "yeah no i i love talking to you guys yeah i mean uh i would love to come back we've been looking" }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0095", "segment_id": "seg-0095", "start": 3857.86, "end": 3864.18, "time_label": "1:04:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "forward to it so yes open invitation thanks professor yeah anytime you're welcome so thank you so much really appreciate it" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "speaker_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0002" ], "note": "The transcript includes Jiang's brief greeting inside the host segment; the substantive question remains Clayton's.", "suggested_speaker": "mixed host/Jiang", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 60.92, "end": 105.89, "time_label": "1:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Trump has asked for $200 billion from Congress, signaling that he intends to fight a long war. Well, we're thrilled now to have here on the show Professor Jiang. He's the author of Predictive History on sub -stack. Welc..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "note": "These are near-empty boundary residue segments and carry no independent semantic content.", "suggested_speaker": null, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 168.47, "end": 171.89, "time_label": "2:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "" }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 221.31, "end": 223.07, "time_label": "3:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0015" ], "note": "Two host turns split the transition: Clayton thanks Natalie and redirects to the war; Natalie frames Jiang's predictions as reluctant truth-telling by a parent.", "suggested_speaker": "hosts", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 524.74, "end": 552.38, "time_label": "8:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Yeah. Well, thank you for that. And yeah, I wanted to thank you, Natalie, for bringing that up. And we wanted to address that kind of off the top because I know you've been getting hit really hard with certain people on..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 552.5, "end": 590.66, "time_label": "9:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And if I may, I'd like to add this because we also are parents of three. And when I watch your content, it seems very much not about what you want to happen because we also have three kids. This is not the world we want..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0035" ], "note": "These host segments are mostly break and sponsor copy, not Jiang argument, but they remain focus refs for interaction coverage.", "suggested_speaker": "host/ad copy", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 1468.06, "end": 1527.36, "time_label": "24:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Let's take a quick break. And then I want to ask you more about game theory and specific your prediction about the United States eventually losing this war. So we'll be back in just a moment. You may have seen the conve..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 1527.56, "end": 1583.46, "time_label": "25:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "With Rumble Wallet, you control the money. Not a bank, not a government, not a tech company and not even Rumble can touch it. It's yours and only yours. You can buy and save digital assets like Bitcoin and Tether Gold...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "note": "Near-empty boundary residue from Jiang's preceding answer.", "suggested_speaker": null, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2059.28, "end": 2060.7, "time_label": "34:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0072" ], "note": "The first part is a substantive transition; the latter part is sponsor copy and should not be used for Jiang claims.", "suggested_speaker": "host/ad copy", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0072", "segment_id": "seg-0072", "start": 3076.28, "end": 3123.513, "time_label": "51:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So, Professor, we're going to take a quick break and we're going to come back. We want to ask you about your next big prediction and also about something you said last week, which is that this war powers we could be ent..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0073" ], "note": "Sponsor copy is included in focus coverage but does not contribute semantic claims.", "suggested_speaker": "host/ad copy", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0073", "segment_id": "seg-0073", "start": 3123.513, "end": 3176.51, "time_label": "52:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "It's going. Isn't it time, folks? Get yourself some gold and silver today. Call the best in the business. I personally use them. So does Natalie. We both do. And our kids do as well in their IRAs. Lear Capital, it's a f..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0080" ], "note": "Near-empty boundary residue from Jiang's previous answer.", "suggested_speaker": null, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0080", "segment_id": "seg-0080", "start": 3422.6, "end": 3425.14, "time_label": "57:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0081" ], "note": "The UNKNOWN segment is a one-word reaction and does not affect source interpretation.", "suggested_speaker": "host or off-mic participant", "confidence": "low", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0081", "segment_id": "seg-0081", "start": 3427.29, "end": 3427.69, "time_label": "57:07", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Wow." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0089" ], "note": "Empty boundary residue; no independent content.", "suggested_speaker": null, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0089", "segment_id": "seg-0089", "start": 3736.53, "end": 3737.45, "time_label": "1:02:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0092", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0093" ], "note": "The Tucker Carlson praise crosses from Jiang into host agreement; keep Jiang's specific claim anchored to seg-0091 and seg-0092.", "suggested_speaker": "mixed Jiang/host", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0092", "segment_id": "seg-0092", "start": 3805.82, "end": 3811.58, "time_label": "1:03:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "to speak out against the war and great personal risk yes he continues to do that at great" }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0093", "segment_id": "seg-0093", "start": 3811.58, "end": 3852.88, "time_label": "1:03:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "personal risk so yeah yeah and then speaking out against the ukraine war and the the united states involvement in that you know you know that's why yes that and that's why he got fired from fox news um clearly professor..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "claims": [ { "claim": "Jiang says the Iran war is following an escalation ladder whose logic is stronger than Trump's daily public narratives.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "temporal_scope": "Jiang's assessment on 2026-03-24 of the first three weeks of the Iran war.", "topic_tags": [ "iran-war", "escalation-ladder", "trump" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 107.11, "end": 171.89, "time_label": "1:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So Trump, these past three weeks, have been over the plate. Every single day, he comes up with a new narrative. But the reality on the ground is that this war is following, an escalation ladder. And it seems that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that Israeli threats against Iranian civilian infrastructure and Iranian retaliation threats against Gulf energy and desalination infrastructure are creating an existential crisis for the GCC.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "temporal_scope": "Current-war diagnosis as of 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "gcc", "energy-infrastructure", "desalination", "escalation" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 107.11, "end": 171.89, "time_label": "1:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So Trump, these past three weeks, have been over the plate. Every single day, he comes up with a new narrative. But the reality on the ground is that this war is following, an escalation ladder. And it seems that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang describes predictive history as a model refined by making public predictions and testing them against world events.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007" ], "temporal_scope": "Method description dated 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "predictive-history", "game-theory", "method" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 223.76, "end": 282.62, "time_label": "3:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, sure. So for the past two years, I've been developing a new system of predictive modeling where I take game theory and I make predictions about how world events will turn out. And by making these predictions, I ca..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says his three key predictions were Trump winning in 2024, Trump initiating war with Iran, and the United States ultimately losing that war in a way that reshapes global order.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective account of predictions made before this 2026-03-24 interview.", "topic_tags": [ "prediction", "trump", "iran-war", "global-order" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 223.76, "end": 282.62, "time_label": "3:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, sure. So for the past two years, I've been developing a new system of predictive modeling where I take game theory and I make predictions about how world events will turn out. And by making these predictions, I ca..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says some anger at him is organic rather than coordinated and comes from fear about the war and resentment that he appears to be gaining attention from tragedy.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0009" ], "temporal_scope": "Self-interpretation of public reaction as of 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "public-reaction", "internet-attention", "fear" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 344.48, "end": 393.632, "time_label": "5:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So that is the smear campaign. But there's also an organic anger directed at me. I think a lot of it is fear about how this war will turn out and anger at the fact that I'm sort of using a tragedy, a global tragedy, to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says he remains largely silent about China because he lives and works there and believes criticism could endanger his school and family.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ], "temporal_scope": "Personal explanation dated 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "china", "speech-risk", "public-positioning" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 465.06, "end": 511.28, "time_label": "7:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay, first of all, I've been very mute about China. And the reality is that I live and work in China. If I were to say anything offensive, about China, then my school would get into a lot of trouble. And quite frankly,..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 511.28, "end": 524.52, "time_label": "8:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I think like the criticism of me about being mute, my criticism of the Chinese Communist Party is correct. But it's just because I'm working in the reality that is China. Okay. Yeah." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang distinguishes educator from propagandist: he says he could profit by parroting Chinese Communist Party talking points but does not want that role.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "temporal_scope": "Self-description on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "educator", "propaganda", "china" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 465.06, "end": 511.28, "time_label": "7:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay, first of all, I've been very mute about China. And the reality is that I live and work in China. If I were to say anything offensive, about China, then my school would get into a lot of trouble. And quite frankly,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the purpose of predictive modeling is not to enjoy being right but to increase collective agency over human events.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "temporal_scope": "Method purpose stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "agency", "prediction", "children", "future" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 592.12, "end": 643.46, "time_label": "9:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, so thank you so much for that, Natalie. So, you know, when my predictions are correct, you know, on February 28th, the Americans and Israelis attacked Tehran and this launched the war that we are in now. I couldn'..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says game theory must identify players, interests, strengths, and optimal strategies, but needs validation because outsiders lack direct access to player thinking.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "temporal_scope": "Method description dated 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "game-theory", "method", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 643.76, "end": 698.44, "time_label": "10:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So, you know, we have 8 billion people in this world and most people don't know what's going on and they choose to put their head in the sand. And what I'm trying to do with my YouTube channel is trying to say to people..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 698.76, "end": 753.72, "time_label": "11:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So as we know, a lot of what's happening in the Middle East is driven by Israel's desire to achieve the Greater Israel Project. That, you know, right now Israel is being dominated by religious fanatics who believe that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that Israel's pursuit of the Greater Israel Project is one driver of the Middle East war and forces Iran and the United States into their own strategic responses.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "temporal_scope": "Jiang's war diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "greater-israel", "iran-war", "strategy" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 698.76, "end": 753.72, "time_label": "11:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So as we know, a lot of what's happening in the Middle East is driven by Israel's desire to achieve the Greater Israel Project. That, you know, right now Israel is being dominated by religious fanatics who believe that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says historical patterning compares the Iran war with Vietnam, Athens in Sicily, and Nazi Germany's invasion of Russia to infer likely progression.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "temporal_scope": "Method description dated 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "historical-patterning", "vietnam", "peloponnesian-war", "world-war-ii" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 754.16, "end": 815.26, "time_label": "12:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Historical patterns just means can we think about previous wars and compare, contrast how this war will play out based on previous wars? And so what I've done is I've looked at the Vietnam War I've looked at the Pelopon..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang defines eschatology as the religious worldview that motivates actors who believe they are acting for God and building a better world.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "temporal_scope": "Method description dated 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "eschatology", "religion", "strategy" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 754.16, "end": 815.26, "time_label": "12:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Historical patterns just means can we think about previous wars and compare, contrast how this war will play out based on previous wars? And so what I've done is I've looked at the Vietnam War I've looked at the Pelopon..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 815.26, "end": 822.04, "time_label": "13:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "you're able to figure out where these three converge together you are then able to make accurate predictions about how things should progress." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Iran's weakness on the escalation ladder makes it more strategic, flexible, and controlled than the nuclear-armed United States and Israel.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "temporal_scope": "War diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "iran", "escalation-control", "asymmetry" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 866.75, "end": 922.19, "time_label": "14:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So the escalation ladder is just the idea that once you start a fight it develops its own momentum its own logic. You can't really stop it. So no two guys go into an argument thinking that they'll actually exchan..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 922.55, "end": 976.89, "time_label": "15:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So I did a lot of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu before and in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu it's all about maintaining calm maintaining control. If you are able to maintain calm control you can even defeat a bigger opponent who is stronger..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that Iranian calibration preserves diplomacy and public opinion while avoiding actions that would unify the GCC against Iran.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "temporal_scope": "War diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "iran", "gcc", "public-opinion", "hormuz" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 977.13, "end": 1038.27, "time_label": "16:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And so by doing that what issue what Iran is able to demonstrate is confidence in its arsenal. It's able to maintain diplomacy political diplomacy as well as global public opinion. They're also able to divide and conque..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the missing consequence for a bad war appears as collapsing morale among soldiers and the public, not necessarily immediate international punishment.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "temporal_scope": "Current-war diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "morale", "will-to-fight", "war-legitimacy" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1074.71, "end": 1142.55, "time_label": "17:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So there is actually a major consequence. A major consequence is the morale of your population which affects your will to fight. Right? So if people believe that it is a good cause they are willing to commit them..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1142.55, "end": 1206.25, "time_label": "19:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "is that Gerald Ford is now out of commission for the next two years because the damage was so extensive. And the theory is there's an investigation as to whether the sailors deliberately set fire in a laundry room to de..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts that a U.S. ground invasion of Iran would provoke a popular uprising in America once footage of Marines dying circulated on social media.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction stated on 2026-03-24 for a possible ground-invasion scenario.", "topic_tags": [ "ground-invasion", "domestic-unrest", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1206.43, "end": 1237.15, "time_label": "20:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Possibly Cork Island but also possibly a naval base in the south east of Iran. Once you commit the ground invasion then you're going to have a popular uprising throughout America. Once you have this social media footage..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says a real attempt to conquer Iran would require roughly two years of preparation and around two million troops staged around Iran.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "temporal_scope": "Military assessment stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "iran", "ground-war", "logistics" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 1271.79, "end": 1329.77, "time_label": "21:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So if you want to win this war what you do is you spend two years to stage two million troops around Iran. Okay. So you have 500,000 troops in Pakistan ready to assault from southeast from the southeast corner. Y..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that the U.S. military-industrial complex prefers never-ending wars and expensive systems over wars that serve national interest or prepare for real opponents.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "temporal_scope": "Structural diagnosis stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "military-industrial-complex", "war-on-terror", "bureaucracy" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1329.77, "end": 1386.83, "time_label": "22:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Because Iraq was a balance to Iran. So Saddam Hussein miscalculated. So the problem with the American military machine is that it's run by the military industrial complex and this is something that Eisenhower warned abo..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the Iran war exposes that U.S. air defenses, carriers, and advanced jets are not ready for a modern asymmetric opponent.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "temporal_scope": "Current-war diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "asymmetric-war", "air-defense", "carriers", "f-35" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1386.83, "end": 1450.773, "time_label": "23:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Iran is the failure of the military industrial complex to prepare for a modern war where your opponent is willing to fight back asymmetrically, right? So we see these air defense systems, the Patriot system, the THAAD s..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Iranian ability to hit supposedly unhittable systems demonstrates corruption and unreadiness in the U.S. military machine.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "temporal_scope": "Current-war diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "military-readiness", "corruption", "iran" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1450.773, "end": 1466.59, "time_label": "24:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, we were told it was unhittable. Unhittable. Yes, exactly. And the Iranians hit them with like pretty limited radar. So it just shows you the corruption of the military industrial complex right now in the United St..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang treats the Pentagon's Millennium Challenge war game as evidence that asymmetric drone swarms could defeat the U.S. model when the opponent is not artificially constrained.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical evidence cited on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "millennium-challenge", "asymmetry", "drone-swarms", "iran" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 1637.56, "end": 1701.36, "time_label": "27:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So the key piece of evidence is 20 years ago, about 2002, the American military, the Pentagon, ran a war game called the Millennium Challenge, the Millennium Challenge. And the idea is to look at how America coul..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that the Pentagon bureaucracy shapes reality to fit expectations because it does not want bad news about its limitations.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "temporal_scope": "Institutional diagnosis stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "pentagon", "bureaucracy", "bad-news" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 1701.6, "end": 1755.66, "time_label": "28:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And then in that iteration, in the final iteration, the Pentagon won, okay? So this shows you two things. The first thing is that the Pentagon is not ready to fight a war asymmetrically. It doesn't have the creativity,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Operation Prosperity Guardian showed the United States could not defeat an opponent, the Houthis, who could not be intimidated, bribed, co-opted, assassinated, or made afraid to die.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0039" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical analogy cited on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "houthis", "operation-prosperity-guardian", "asymmetric-war" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 1701.6, "end": 1755.66, "time_label": "28:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And then in that iteration, in the final iteration, the Pentagon won, okay? So this shows you two things. The first thing is that the Pentagon is not ready to fight a war asymmetrically. It doesn't have the creativity,..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 1755.74, "end": 1811.32, "time_label": "29:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "The Houthis hid in their mountains. And the Houthis refused to surrender. And the Americans didn't know what to do because they were so used to being able to scare their opponents, to bribe them, to intimidate them, to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts that U.S. leaders will keep escalating toward a Marine landing because retreat would damage imperial credibility and Trump's face.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "marine-landing", "credibility", "vietnam", "trump" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 1811.68, "end": 1861.637, "time_label": "30:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "These past weeks have shown shock and awe doesn't really work, but they don't know what else to do. So they keep on doing it. And now what they're doing is to think about sending the Marines in for an infamous landing b..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says U.S. leaders face a sunk-cost trap where retreat means admitting America no longer looks invincible.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0041" ], "temporal_scope": "Current-war diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "sunk-cost", "empire", "credibility" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 1861.637, "end": 1888.12, "time_label": "31:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I mean, the entire world would no longer see America as an empire, as invincible. And the Pentagon could not really countenance this possibility. So what they'll do is they'll double down. It's very much like going to a..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Iranian morale is rooted in the belief that they are on the side of truth and in a Persian-Zoroastrian civilizational memory of serving God's will.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "temporal_scope": "Eschatological diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "iran", "persia", "zoroastrianism", "morale" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 1954.46, "end": 2005.42, "time_label": "32:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. Look, I think that the Iranians have extremely high morale, and the reason why is they think they are on the side of truth. You know, what people forget about the Iranians is that these are the Persians, and the P..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that Iran's refusal to preemptively strike expresses a commitment to truth and righteousness rather than mere tactical restraint.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "temporal_scope": "Current-war diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "iran", "preemption", "righteousness", "truth" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 1954.46, "end": 2005.42, "time_label": "32:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. Look, I think that the Iranians have extremely high morale, and the reason why is they think they are on the side of truth. You know, what people forget about the Iranians is that these are the Persians, and the P..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2005.68, "end": 2060.7, "time_label": "33:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But the Persian people are like, no, we have to live the truth. We refuse to submit to the lie. So if they attack us, we'll fight back. But we will never ever be the aggressor. We will never ever choose the path of viol..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The host frames David Icke's theory as a planned transition toward AI control, biological connection to the brain, reduced rights, and restricted transaction power.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "temporal_scope": "Interviewer framing on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "david-icke", "ai-control", "patriot-act", "surveillance" ], "claim_type": "other", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 2061.74, "end": 2112.2, "time_label": "34:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "You brought up David Icke earlier. And, you know, we're big fans of David Icke here on this show. He's been a guest a number of times. One of the things that he's been saying is that this Iranian war, this collapse of I..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2112.5, "end": 2128.88, "time_label": "35:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "They are issuing in this, ushering in this new era of control just like the Patriot Act. So we can get all into the finite details about air power and this drone struck this particular oil plant and this. But really, it..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the likely direction of the crisis includes digital currency, an AI surveillance control grid, global economic collapse, reset, and the Greater Israel Project.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking diagnosis stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "digital-currency", "ai-surveillance", "reset", "greater-israel" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 2129.51, "end": 2188.15, "time_label": "35:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. I mean, I completely agree with David Icke's assessment. I think this is the future we're heading towards. My main issue with David Icke is that he thinks this is all deliberate. This is all scripted. This is all..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that even if elites have a plan, Trump and Putin retain agency and can make the plan unfold less seamlessly than a scripted theory predicts.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "temporal_scope": "Game-theory caveat stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "agency", "script", "trump", "putin", "global-elite" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 2188.43, "end": 2234.07, "time_label": "36:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So on where the world is heading, I agree with David Icke. But I will also point out that according to game theory, we cannot discount certain players in this game. So for example, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are ma..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the financial system's problem is too much printed money and too many paper millionaires, so elites need to destroy excess wealth to regulate individuals.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "temporal_scope": "Economic diagnosis and prediction stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "financial-system", "wealth-destruction", "money-printing", "control" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2286.84, "end": 2342.18, "time_label": "38:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I actually think the real issue that the global elite need to resolve is the financial system, meaning that over the past 10, 20 years, they printed too much money. And there are too many individuals who are millionaire..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang speculates that civil war or a false flag against financial data centers could destroy wealth and be used to blame Iran and build support for a national draft.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "temporal_scope": "Speculative scenario stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "false-flag", "financial-data-centers", "national-draft", "iran" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2286.84, "end": 2342.18, "time_label": "38:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I actually think the real issue that the global elite need to resolve is the financial system, meaning that over the past 10, 20 years, they printed too much money. And there are too many individuals who are millionaire..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang reframes Epstein away from blackmail-island sensationalism and toward an alleged operative role in geopolitical manipulation, arms trafficking, money laundering, and financial crisis.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "temporal_scope": "Jiang's interpretation stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "epstein", "transnational-elite", "geopolitical-manipulation", "money-laundering" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 2405.98, "end": 2471.94, "time_label": "40:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So the Epstein class, I think people focus on the wrong thing, which is they focus on pizza gate, right? They focus on the idea that Epstein was talking about, like beef jerky, pizza and grape soda. And that's what capt..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 2472.1, "end": 2528.04, "time_label": "41:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But a lot of, if you just connect the dots, it suggests that he was in a certain way involved in 9 -11. You know, he was a neighbor to Howard Lugnick in Manhattan, right? So, and they were neighbors and their numbers we..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says a transnational elite above the nation state can manipulate geopolitical events for its own benefit.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0057" ], "temporal_scope": "Jiang's structural interpretation on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "transnational-elite", "nation-state", "geopolitical-manipulation" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 2528.26, "end": 2584.58, "time_label": "42:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And their response was, well, we wanted money from him, right? So these are billionaires trying to beg Epstein for money. So something's wrong with our current conception of the world. And so what I will say is there is..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang identifies the alleged elite alliance as transnational capital, secret societies, and elite families, and says Epstein represented transnational capital.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0058" ], "temporal_scope": "Jiang's speculative model stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "epstein", "transnational-capital", "secret-societies", "elite-families" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 2528.26, "end": 2584.58, "time_label": "42:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And their response was, well, we wanted money from him, right? So these are billionaires trying to beg Epstein for money. So something's wrong with our current conception of the world. And so what I will say is there is..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 2584.82, "end": 2614.76, "time_label": "43:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And if you look at his emails, what he will say is there were three major Jewish families in Europe. They were the Rothschilds, the Epsteins, and the Gutmans. And he said, he told Peter Thiel, I represent the Rothschild..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Clayton frames Joe Kent's view as: de-escalation requires restraining Israel because Israeli attacks keep subverting U.S. negotiation claims.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0060" ], "temporal_scope": "Interviewer framing on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "joe-kent", "de-escalation", "israel", "iran" ], "claim_type": "other", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 2615.38, "end": 2671.76, "time_label": "43:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "You know, Joe Kent last week, I think it was last week now, time is flying so quickly, resigned from the Trump administration basically trying to prevent this war in Iran. He says that everybody, all of the intelligence..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "segment_id": "seg-0060", "start": 2671.76, "end": 2691.34, "time_label": "44:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "now repeatedly in these past few weeks is that the United States says one thing and then the Israelis like go around quickly and launch some sort of attack on Iranian infrastructure. Like you mentioned, the oil and the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Israel benefits from dragging the war out and expanding the number of participants because destroying the GCC and Iran would leave Israel as the only regional power standing.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0062" ], "temporal_scope": "Game-theory diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "israel", "gcc", "regional-power", "war-expansion" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 2753.58, "end": 2816.18, "time_label": "45:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But now it's been reported that actually these missiles were fired from an Israeli submarine. So it is in the best interest, according to Game Theory, for Israel to drag this war out as much as possible and to drag in a..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Iran's long-term war aims include controlling the Strait of Hormuz, removing U.S. forces from the GCC, and doing enough damage to Israel to force respect before a peace treaty.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0063" ], "temporal_scope": "Game-theory diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "iran", "hormuz", "gcc", "peace-treaty", "credibility" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 2753.58, "end": 2816.18, "time_label": "45:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But now it's been reported that actually these missiles were fired from an Israeli submarine. So it is in the best interest, according to Game Theory, for Israel to drag this war out as much as possible and to drag in a..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 2816.4, "end": 2860.36, "time_label": "46:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "The first thing they need to do is establish control over the Strait of Hormuz. And that would be the main economic lifeline where they can charge a 10 % toll on any passage through the Strait of Hormuz. So that's numbe..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Israel's Greater Israel Project extends from the Nile to the Euphrates and does not include Persia, so Israel is not primarily interested in conquering Persia itself.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0065" ], "temporal_scope": "Game-theory diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "greater-israel", "persia", "israel" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "segment_id": "seg-0065", "start": 2869.12, "end": 2931.5, "time_label": "47:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So if you look at the Greater Israel Project, it's very clear that it extends from the Nile to the Euphrates. It does not include Persia. Israel is not actually interested in Persia. So according to Game Theory,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that Israel sees the United States, not Iran, as its main competitor in the Middle East because the U.S. military presence limits Israel's regional supremacy.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0066" ], "temporal_scope": "Game-theory diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "israel", "united-states", "middle-east", "regional-power" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "segment_id": "seg-0065", "start": 2869.12, "end": 2931.5, "time_label": "47:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So if you look at the Greater Israel Project, it's very clear that it extends from the Nile to the Euphrates. It does not include Persia. Israel is not actually interested in Persia. So according to Game Theory,..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0066", "segment_id": "seg-0066", "start": 2932.06, "end": 2952.64, "time_label": "48:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And Netanyahu's response was, well, it didn't work out great for us the first time, okay? So this is how the Israelis think. They see, they understand like their main competitor in the Middle East is actually not Iran,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Trump could choose a different path by making a deal with the GCC and Iran and constraining Israel through U.S. domestic and security policy.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0068" ], "temporal_scope": "Counterfactual agency scenario on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "agency", "de-escalation", "israel" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0068", "segment_id": "seg-0068", "start": 2994.94, "end": 3052.32, "time_label": "49:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, there's a lot of agency. And Donald Trump could have come to Jesus' moment and he strikes a deal with the Iranians and he restricts the Israelis, right? So Donald Trump says, for the greater good, I'm going to str..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang proposes restricting dual citizens from U.S. Congress and national-security roles as one possible way the United States could limit Israeli influence.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0068" ], "temporal_scope": "Policy scenario stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "dual-citizenship", "national-security", "israel", "policy" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0068", "segment_id": "seg-0068", "start": 2994.94, "end": 3052.32, "time_label": "49:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, there's a lot of agency. And Donald Trump could have come to Jesus' moment and he strikes a deal with the Iranians and he restricts the Israelis, right? So Donald Trump says, for the greater good, I'm going to str..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts the Iran war is heading toward another Vietnam through limited deployment, mission creep, and institutional pressure to keep fighting until the military can claim victory.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0075" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking war prediction stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "vietnam", "mission-creep", "marine-deployment", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0075", "segment_id": "seg-0075", "start": 3206.86, "end": 3282.08, "time_label": "53:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, so I will say that I think this war is heading in the direction of another Vietnam. You know, at that time it was a military war. You know, the three first wars were like, you know, there was a Japanese war and th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts military pressure will force Trump into a national draft, producing riots and National Guard deployment across major cities.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking prediction stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "draft", "riots", "national-guard", "trump" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076", "segment_id": "seg-0076", "start": 3282.08, "end": 3314.62, "time_label": "54:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "the military on Donald Trump to institute a national draft and so I think he will have no choice in the matter but to institute a national draft in which case you will have riots throughout America and they have a plan..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts emergency powers could let Trump bypass midterm elections and obtain a third term.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking constitutional-crisis prediction stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "emergency-powers", "third-term", "midterms", "trump" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076", "segment_id": "seg-0076", "start": 3282.08, "end": 3314.62, "time_label": "54:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "the military on Donald Trump to institute a national draft and so I think he will have no choice in the matter but to institute a national draft in which case you will have riots throughout America and they have a plan..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the 2026 Iran war began with less procedural legitimation than the 2003 Iraq war, because the Trump administration did not build public support, seek congressional approval, or present a UN case.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0079" ], "temporal_scope": "Comparison stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "iraq-2003", "iran-war", "congress", "united-nations", "legitimacy" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0079", "segment_id": "seg-0079", "start": 3361.54, "end": 3425.14, "time_label": "56:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. very worrying that this war was started in a way that was not the way the war started in 2003. So in 2003, the Bush administration spent months rallying public support. They wanted congressional approval. They sp..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the plan for Iran is to balkanize it into ethnic enclaves and destroy limited water and power infrastructure so groups fight over resources for decades.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084" ], "temporal_scope": "War-endgame diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "iran", "balkanization", "water-infrastructure", "civilization" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084", "segment_id": "seg-0084", "start": 3491.25, "end": 3544.57, "time_label": "58:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, I mean, if you just look at America's history in the Middle East for the past 20 years, what they did in Iraq, what they did in Libya and Syria, I think there is a plan. The plan is to balkanize Iran into ethnic e..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang compares the proposed destruction of Iran with Iraq after 2003, where de-Baathification destroyed state capacity and helped produce ongoing sectarian violence.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0085" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical analogy stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "iraq", "de-baathification", "state-collapse", "sectarian-violence" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084", "segment_id": "seg-0084", "start": 3491.25, "end": 3544.57, "time_label": "58:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, I mean, if you just look at America's history in the Middle East for the past 20 years, what they did in Iraq, what they did in Libya and Syria, I think there is a plan. The plan is to balkanize Iran into ethnic e..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0085", "segment_id": "seg-0085", "start": 3544.79, "end": 3582.59, "time_label": "59:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "The problem with that is that everyone who worked in government, everyone who worked in the military, everyone who worked in the police was a member of the Baptist party. And so with that one order, it destroyed the nat..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Washington, D.C. has become an insular bubble where dissenters such as Joe Kent are pushed out and officials consume their own propaganda.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0087" ], "temporal_scope": "Media/institution diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "washington-dc", "media-propaganda", "joe-kent", "bubble" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0087", "segment_id": "seg-0087", "start": 3615.27, "end": 3688.21, "time_label": "1:00:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So I think you're exactly correct in that the media will just be as propagandistic in this war against Iran as it was against Ukraine. So the problem with this, though... Unfortunately, Washington, D.C. has becom..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that propaganda contributed to disastrous Ukraine decisions and will similarly feed Trump comforting narratives that Iran is about to collapse.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0087", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0088" ], "temporal_scope": "Ukraine-Iran comparison on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "ukraine", "iran", "propaganda", "bad-decision-making" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0087", "segment_id": "seg-0087", "start": 3615.27, "end": 3688.21, "time_label": "1:00:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So I think you're exactly correct in that the media will just be as propagandistic in this war against Iran as it was against Ukraine. So the problem with this, though... Unfortunately, Washington, D.C. has becom..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0088", "segment_id": "seg-0088", "start": 3688.75, "end": 3737.45, "time_label": "1:01:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. They're aware of this. And so this war in Ukraine is dragging on for no particular reason, even though it's led to the destruction of Ukraine as a nation state, and even though this war is not winnable. And we can..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts that if leaders keep believing media claims that Iran is one day or one week from collapse, the United States could still be in the war five years later.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0088" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking warning stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "iran-war", "media", "collapse-narrative", "long-war" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0088", "segment_id": "seg-0088", "start": 3688.75, "end": 3737.45, "time_label": "1:01:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. They're aware of this. And so this war in Ukraine is dragging on for no particular reason, even though it's led to the destruction of Ukraine as a nation state, and even though this war is not winnable. And we can..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the United States could have faced the same Iran-war situation in January 2020 after Trump's assassination of Qasem Soleimani.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical counterfactual stated on 2026-03-24 about January 2020.", "topic_tags": [ "soleimani", "iran-war", "january-2020", "trump" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091", "segment_id": "seg-0091", "start": 3747.48, "end": 3805.1, "time_label": "1:02:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Sorry. Before we end, I just want to give a quick shout out to Tucker Carlson, okay? Sure. Because people don't remember this, but we could have been in this situation in January 2020, because that's when Trump ordered..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang credits Tucker Carlson with helping prevent escalation to war with Iran in January 2020 by using his Fox News platform and possibly personal access to Trump.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091" ], "temporal_scope": "Jiang's retrospective assessment on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "tucker-carlson", "iran-war", "fox-news", "trump" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091", "segment_id": "seg-0091", "start": 3747.48, "end": 3805.1, "time_label": "1:02:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Sorry. Before we end, I just want to give a quick shout out to Tucker Carlson, okay? Sure. Because people don't remember this, but we could have been in this situation in January 2020, because that's when Trump ordered..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Carlson's antiwar stance was heroic because he spoke out from a major platform at great personal risk.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0092" ], "temporal_scope": "Normative evaluation stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "antiwar-speech", "tucker-carlson", "personal-risk" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091", "segment_id": "seg-0091", "start": 3747.48, "end": 3805.1, "time_label": "1:02:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Sorry. Before we end, I just want to give a quick shout out to Tucker Carlson, okay? Sure. Because people don't remember this, but we could have been in this situation in January 2020, because that's when Trump ordered..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0092", "segment_id": "seg-0092", "start": 3805.82, "end": 3811.58, "time_label": "1:03:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "to speak out against the war and great personal risk yes he continues to do that at great" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The host connects Carlson's later Fox firing to his opposition to the Ukraine war and U.S. involvement, echoing Jiang's antiwar praise.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0093" ], "temporal_scope": "Host interpretation stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "tucker-carlson", "ukraine-war", "fox-news", "neocons" ], "claim_type": "other", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0093", "segment_id": "seg-0093", "start": 3811.58, "end": 3852.88, "time_label": "1:03:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "personal risk so yeah yeah and then speaking out against the ukraine war and the the united states involvement in that you know you know that's why yes that and that's why he got fired from fox news um clearly professor..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "signature_moments": [ { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "moment": "The war is not a sequence of press statements but a ladder whose rungs are being climbed by every actor at once.", "source_phrase": "this war is following, an escalation ladder", "why_it_matters": "It gives the episode its core structure: official rhetoric is noise unless it changes each player's incentive to climb.", "tone": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 107.11, "end": 171.89, "time_label": "1:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So Trump, these past three weeks, have been over the plate. Every single day, he comes up with a new narrative. But the reality on the ground is that this war is following, an escalation ladder. And it seems that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007" ], "moment": "Jiang frames his sudden notoriety as an accidental byproduct of a classroom thought experiment that began to match history.", "source_phrase": "I'm just a high school teacher in China", "why_it_matters": "It keeps the public read from treating Jiang as either prophet or pundit; he presents himself as testing a model under real pressure.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 223.76, "end": 282.62, "time_label": "3:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, sure. So for the past two years, I've been developing a new system of predictive modeling where I take game theory and I make predictions about how world events will turn out. And by making these predictions, I ca..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "moment": "Jiang accepts the charge of silence about China but turns it into a distinction between operating under constraint and becoming a propagandist.", "source_phrase": "I don't want to be a propagandist. I want to be an educator.", "why_it_matters": "It clarifies how he wants the audience to read his asymmetric public speech.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 465.06, "end": 511.28, "time_label": "7:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay, first of all, I've been very mute about China. And the reality is that I live and work in China. If I were to say anything offensive, about China, then my school would get into a lot of trouble. And quite frankly,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "moment": "Being right about war becomes a moral burden rather than a victory lap.", "source_phrase": "I couldn't sleep for two weeks", "why_it_matters": "This preserves the parental and ethical pressure behind the interview, not only the strategic model.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 592.12, "end": 643.46, "time_label": "9:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, so thank you so much for that, Natalie. So, you know, when my predictions are correct, you know, on February 28th, the Americans and Israelis attacked Tehran and this launched the war that we are in now. I couldn'..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "moment": "Prediction works when the cold calculus of players, the repeated pattern of wars, and sacred end-times motivation all converge.", "source_phrase": "game theory eschatology and historical patterning", "why_it_matters": "This is the clearest compact statement of the model powering Jiang's Iran-war forecasts.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 754.16, "end": 815.26, "time_label": "12:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Historical patterns just means can we think about previous wars and compare, contrast how this war will play out based on previous wars? And so what I've done is I've looked at the Vietnam War I've looked at the Pelopon..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 815.26, "end": 822.04, "time_label": "13:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "you're able to figure out where these three converge together you are then able to make accurate predictions about how things should progress." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "moment": "Iran is the smaller fighter in the jiu-jitsu match, winning room to maneuver by staying calm while the stronger opponent swings wildly.", "source_phrase": "maintaining calm maintaining control", "why_it_matters": "The martial-arts image makes escalation control intelligible without flattening it into abstract strategy jargon.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 922.55, "end": 976.89, "time_label": "15:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So I did a lot of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu before and in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu it's all about maintaining calm maintaining control. If you are able to maintain calm control you can even defeat a bigger opponent who is stronger..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "moment": "The hidden consequence of an immoral war is not a UN sanction but a population that no longer wants to fight.", "source_phrase": "the morale of your population which affects your will to fight", "why_it_matters": "It ties morality, legitimacy, and military capacity into one Jiang-style causal chain.", "tone": "causal-chain", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1074.71, "end": 1142.55, "time_label": "17:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So there is actually a major consequence. A major consequence is the morale of your population which affects your will to fight. Right? So if people believe that it is a good cause they are willing to commit them..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1142.55, "end": 1206.25, "time_label": "19:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "is that Gerald Ford is now out of commission for the next two years because the damage was so extensive. And the theory is there's an investigation as to whether the sailors deliberately set fire in a laundry room to de..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "moment": "The point of the war on terror becomes not victory but a machine for endless extraction from taxpayers.", "source_phrase": "not to have successful wars but to have never-ending wars", "why_it_matters": "This is the packet's sharpest indictment of the military-industrial complex.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1329.77, "end": 1386.83, "time_label": "22:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Because Iraq was a balance to Iran. So Saddam Hussein miscalculated. So the problem with the American military machine is that it's run by the military industrial complex and this is something that Eisenhower warned abo..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "moment": "A bureaucracy loses the war game, changes the rules, and calls that victory.", "source_phrase": "shape reality in a way that conforms to its expectations", "why_it_matters": "This is Jiang's institutional critique in miniature: the model fails because the institution edits reality.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 1701.6, "end": 1755.66, "time_label": "28:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And then in that iteration, in the final iteration, the Pentagon won, okay? So this shows you two things. The first thing is that the Pentagon is not ready to fight a war asymmetrically. It doesn't have the creativity,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0039" ], "moment": "The Pentagon's toolkit fails when the opponent cannot be scared, bought, blackmailed, or killed into surrender.", "source_phrase": "They were not afraid to die. And they could not be blackmailed.", "why_it_matters": "It explains why asymmetric morale is not a side issue but a strategic weapon.", "tone": "causal-chain", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 1755.74, "end": 1811.32, "time_label": "29:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "The Houthis hid in their mountains. And the Houthis refused to surrender. And the Americans didn't know what to do because they were so used to being able to scare their opponents, to bribe them, to intimidate them, to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "moment": "Vietnam returns as the war that everyone knows is unwinnable but no one can abandon without losing face.", "source_phrase": "the war achieves a momentum and a logic of its own", "why_it_matters": "This links escalation ladder to sunk cost and imperial credibility.", "tone": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 1811.68, "end": 1861.637, "time_label": "30:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "These past weeks have shown shock and awe doesn't really work, but they don't know what else to do. So they keep on doing it. And now what they're doing is to think about sending the Marines in for an infamous landing b..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0041" ], "moment": "Empire at the casino cannot leave the table because going home means confessing the loss.", "source_phrase": "losing a million dollars", "why_it_matters": "The image turns sunk cost, face, and imperial credibility into a memorable explanation of escalation.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 1861.637, "end": 1888.12, "time_label": "31:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I mean, the entire world would no longer see America as an empire, as invincible. And the Pentagon could not really countenance this possibility. So what they'll do is they'll double down. It's very much like going to a..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "moment": "Jiang gives Iranian morale a luminous interior: a black sky over Tehran with a light inside the people.", "source_phrase": "inside, there's a light shining in the Iranian people", "why_it_matters": "This is the strongest public-read language for the morale/eschatology section.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2005.68, "end": 2060.7, "time_label": "33:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But the Persian people are like, no, we have to live the truth. We refuse to submit to the lie. So if they attack us, we'll fight back. But we will never ever be the aggressor. We will never ever choose the path of viol..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "moment": "History is not a movie script: even inside an elite plan, major players can bend the ending.", "source_phrase": "the script being played out, but also a response to this script", "why_it_matters": "This is the key distinction between Jiang's game theory and total predestination or conspiracy determinism.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 2188.43, "end": 2234.07, "time_label": "36:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So on where the world is heading, I agree with David Icke. But I will also point out that according to game theory, we cannot discount certain players in this game. So for example, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are ma..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "moment": "Control comes by erasing wealth from the ledger, not only by locking people in their homes.", "source_phrase": "destroy as much excess wealth as possible", "why_it_matters": "It shifts the lockdown question from energy to money and makes the economic mechanism central.", "tone": "causal-chain", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2286.84, "end": 2342.18, "time_label": "38:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I actually think the real issue that the global elite need to resolve is the financial system, meaning that over the past 10, 20 years, they printed too much money. And there are too many individuals who are millionaire..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0058" ], "moment": "The Epstein class becomes a parasite sitting on top of the nation-state rather than a lurid island scandal.", "source_phrase": "parasites on the nation state", "why_it_matters": "It compresses Jiang's conspiratorial institutional model into one image while preserving attribution.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 2584.82, "end": 2614.76, "time_label": "43:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And if you look at his emails, what he will say is there were three major Jewish families in Europe. They were the Rothschilds, the Epsteins, and the Gutmans. And he said, he told Peter Thiel, I represent the Rothschild..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0063" ], "moment": "Hormuz becomes the economic lever by which Iran imagines postwar sovereignty and recognition.", "source_phrase": "charge a 10 % toll", "why_it_matters": "It gives the read a concrete strategic objective beyond vague victory or retaliation.", "tone": "method", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 2816.4, "end": 2860.36, "time_label": "46:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "The first thing they need to do is establish control over the Strait of Hormuz. And that would be the main economic lifeline where they can charge a 10 % toll on any passage through the Strait of Hormuz. So that's numbe..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0066" ], "moment": "The apparent client is, in Jiang's model, maneuvering to destroy its patron's military position.", "source_phrase": "their main competitor in the Middle East is actually not Iran, but actually the United States", "why_it_matters": "This reversal is central to the interview's Israel-America game-theory argument.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0066", "segment_id": "seg-0066", "start": 2932.06, "end": 2952.64, "time_label": "48:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And Netanyahu's response was, well, it didn't work out great for us the first time, okay? So this is how the Israelis think. They see, they understand like their main competitor in the Middle East is actually not Iran,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0067" ], "moment": "Natalie gives the alliance logic a pop-culture image: Littlefinger advising leaders into self-destruction.", "source_phrase": "leading them and advising them into their own self-destruction", "why_it_matters": "It captures interviewer pressure and shapes Jiang's following agency answer.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0067", "segment_id": "seg-0067", "start": 2952.64, "end": 2993.14, "time_label": "49:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yeah, it's very much like Game of Thrones. I keep mentioning there's this little finger character who is befriending these leaders and then leading them and advising them into their own self -destruction. If you know Ga..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0075" ], "moment": "Vietnam is not a metaphor for defeat after the fact; it is the logic that starts when a limited landing becomes a war the institution must win.", "source_phrase": "another Vietnam", "why_it_matters": "It gives the episode a concrete future arc from boots on the ground to political crisis.", "tone": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0075", "segment_id": "seg-0075", "start": 3206.86, "end": 3282.08, "time_label": "53:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, so I will say that I think this war is heading in the direction of another Vietnam. You know, at that time it was a military war. You know, the three first wars were like, you know, there was a Japanese war and th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0079" ], "moment": "Jiang says 2003 looks procedurally careful compared with the current war's reasonless first strike.", "source_phrase": "None of this is true today", "why_it_matters": "This is the strongest contrast for the legitimacy-collapse beat.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0079", "segment_id": "seg-0079", "start": 3361.54, "end": 3425.14, "time_label": "56:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. very worrying that this war was started in a way that was not the way the war started in 2003. So in 2003, the Bush administration spent months rallying public support. They wanted congressional approval. They sp..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084" ], "moment": "The hidden plan is not victory over Iran but the destruction of Persia as a civilization through water, power, and ethnic fragmentation.", "source_phrase": "destroy Persia as a civilization", "why_it_matters": "This is the most severe version of Jiang's Iran endgame claim.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084", "segment_id": "seg-0084", "start": 3491.25, "end": 3544.57, "time_label": "58:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, I mean, if you just look at America's history in the Middle East for the past 20 years, what they did in Iraq, what they did in Libya and Syria, I think there is a plan. The plan is to balkanize Iran into ethnic e..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0087" ], "moment": "Washington's bubble drinks its own story until military planning becomes intoxicated by media success.", "source_phrase": "drinking their own Kool-Aid, getting high on their own supply", "why_it_matters": "It anchors the propaganda section in Jiang's vivid causal language.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0087", "segment_id": "seg-0087", "start": 3615.27, "end": 3688.21, "time_label": "1:00:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So I think you're exactly correct in that the media will just be as propagandistic in this war against Iran as it was against Ukraine. So the problem with this, though... Unfortunately, Washington, D.C. has becom..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091" ], "moment": "The interview's final move is not another prediction but a debt: Jiang insists that one broadcaster's antiwar speech mattered in 2020.", "source_phrase": "Tucker Carlson saved us from nuclear war", "why_it_matters": "It closes the episode by returning to agency: public speech can alter the escalation ladder.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091", "segment_id": "seg-0091", "start": 3747.48, "end": 3805.1, "time_label": "1:02:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Sorry. Before we end, I just want to give a quick shout out to Tucker Carlson, okay? Sure. Because people don't remember this, but we could have been in this situation in January 2020, because that's when Trump ordered..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "predictions": [ { "claim": "Jiang says his three key predictions were Trump winning in 2024, Trump initiating war with Iran, and the United States ultimately losing that war in a way that reshapes global order.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective account of predictions made before this 2026-03-24 interview.", "topic_tags": [ "prediction", "trump", "iran-war", "global-order" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 223.76, "end": 282.62, "time_label": "3:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, sure. So for the past two years, I've been developing a new system of predictive modeling where I take game theory and I make predictions about how world events will turn out. And by making these predictions, I ca..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts that a U.S. ground invasion of Iran would provoke a popular uprising in America once footage of Marines dying circulated on social media.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction stated on 2026-03-24 for a possible ground-invasion scenario.", "topic_tags": [ "ground-invasion", "domestic-unrest", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1206.43, "end": 1237.15, "time_label": "20:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Possibly Cork Island but also possibly a naval base in the south east of Iran. Once you commit the ground invasion then you're going to have a popular uprising throughout America. Once you have this social media footage..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts that U.S. leaders will keep escalating toward a Marine landing because retreat would damage imperial credibility and Trump's face.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "marine-landing", "credibility", "vietnam", "trump" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 1811.68, "end": 1861.637, "time_label": "30:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "These past weeks have shown shock and awe doesn't really work, but they don't know what else to do. So they keep on doing it. And now what they're doing is to think about sending the Marines in for an infamous landing b..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the likely direction of the crisis includes digital currency, an AI surveillance control grid, global economic collapse, reset, and the Greater Israel Project.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking diagnosis stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "digital-currency", "ai-surveillance", "reset", "greater-israel" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 2129.51, "end": 2188.15, "time_label": "35:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. I mean, I completely agree with David Icke's assessment. I think this is the future we're heading towards. My main issue with David Icke is that he thinks this is all deliberate. This is all scripted. This is all..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang speculates that civil war or a false flag against financial data centers could destroy wealth and be used to blame Iran and build support for a national draft.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "temporal_scope": "Speculative scenario stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "false-flag", "financial-data-centers", "national-draft", "iran" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2286.84, "end": 2342.18, "time_label": "38:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I actually think the real issue that the global elite need to resolve is the financial system, meaning that over the past 10, 20 years, they printed too much money. And there are too many individuals who are millionaire..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts the Iran war is heading toward another Vietnam through limited deployment, mission creep, and institutional pressure to keep fighting until the military can claim victory.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0075" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking war prediction stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "vietnam", "mission-creep", "marine-deployment", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0075", "segment_id": "seg-0075", "start": 3206.86, "end": 3282.08, "time_label": "53:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, so I will say that I think this war is heading in the direction of another Vietnam. You know, at that time it was a military war. You know, the three first wars were like, you know, there was a Japanese war and th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts military pressure will force Trump into a national draft, producing riots and National Guard deployment across major cities.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking prediction stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "draft", "riots", "national-guard", "trump" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076", "segment_id": "seg-0076", "start": 3282.08, "end": 3314.62, "time_label": "54:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "the military on Donald Trump to institute a national draft and so I think he will have no choice in the matter but to institute a national draft in which case you will have riots throughout America and they have a plan..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts emergency powers could let Trump bypass midterm elections and obtain a third term.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking constitutional-crisis prediction stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "emergency-powers", "third-term", "midterms", "trump" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076", "segment_id": "seg-0076", "start": 3282.08, "end": 3314.62, "time_label": "54:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "the military on Donald Trump to institute a national draft and so I think he will have no choice in the matter but to institute a national draft in which case you will have riots throughout America and they have a plan..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts that if leaders keep believing media claims that Iran is one day or one week from collapse, the United States could still be in the war five years later.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0088" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking warning stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "iran-war", "media", "collapse-narrative", "long-war" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0088", "segment_id": "seg-0088", "start": 3688.75, "end": 3737.45, "time_label": "1:01:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. They're aware of this. And so this war in Ukraine is dragging on for no particular reason, even though it's led to the destruction of Ukraine as a nation state, and even though this war is not winnable. And we can..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "models": [ { "claim": "Jiang says historical patterning compares the Iran war with Vietnam, Athens in Sicily, and Nazi Germany's invasion of Russia to infer likely progression.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "temporal_scope": "Method description dated 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "historical-patterning", "vietnam", "peloponnesian-war", "world-war-ii" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 754.16, "end": 815.26, "time_label": "12:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Historical patterns just means can we think about previous wars and compare, contrast how this war will play out based on previous wars? And so what I've done is I've looked at the Vietnam War I've looked at the Pelopon..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says a real attempt to conquer Iran would require roughly two years of preparation and around two million troops staged around Iran.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "temporal_scope": "Military assessment stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "iran", "ground-war", "logistics" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 1271.79, "end": 1329.77, "time_label": "21:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So if you want to win this war what you do is you spend two years to stage two million troops around Iran. Okay. So you have 500,000 troops in Pakistan ready to assault from southeast from the southeast corner. Y..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that Iran's refusal to preemptively strike expresses a commitment to truth and righteousness rather than mere tactical restraint.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "temporal_scope": "Current-war diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "iran", "preemption", "righteousness", "truth" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 1954.46, "end": 2005.42, "time_label": "32:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. Look, I think that the Iranians have extremely high morale, and the reason why is they think they are on the side of truth. You know, what people forget about the Iranians is that these are the Persians, and the P..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2005.68, "end": 2060.7, "time_label": "33:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But the Persian people are like, no, we have to live the truth. We refuse to submit to the lie. So if they attack us, we'll fight back. But we will never ever be the aggressor. We will never ever choose the path of viol..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that even if elites have a plan, Trump and Putin retain agency and can make the plan unfold less seamlessly than a scripted theory predicts.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "temporal_scope": "Game-theory caveat stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "agency", "script", "trump", "putin", "global-elite" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 2188.43, "end": 2234.07, "time_label": "36:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So on where the world is heading, I agree with David Icke. But I will also point out that according to game theory, we cannot discount certain players in this game. So for example, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are ma..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says a transnational elite above the nation state can manipulate geopolitical events for its own benefit.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0057" ], "temporal_scope": "Jiang's structural interpretation on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "transnational-elite", "nation-state", "geopolitical-manipulation" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 2528.26, "end": 2584.58, "time_label": "42:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And their response was, well, we wanted money from him, right? So these are billionaires trying to beg Epstein for money. So something's wrong with our current conception of the world. And so what I will say is there is..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang identifies the alleged elite alliance as transnational capital, secret societies, and elite families, and says Epstein represented transnational capital.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0058" ], "temporal_scope": "Jiang's speculative model stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "epstein", "transnational-capital", "secret-societies", "elite-families" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 2528.26, "end": 2584.58, "time_label": "42:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And their response was, well, we wanted money from him, right? So these are billionaires trying to beg Epstein for money. So something's wrong with our current conception of the world. And so what I will say is there is..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 2584.82, "end": 2614.76, "time_label": "43:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And if you look at his emails, what he will say is there were three major Jewish families in Europe. They were the Rothschilds, the Epsteins, and the Gutmans. And he said, he told Peter Thiel, I represent the Rothschild..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Trump could choose a different path by making a deal with the GCC and Iran and constraining Israel through U.S. domestic and security policy.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0068" ], "temporal_scope": "Counterfactual agency scenario on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "agency", "de-escalation", "israel" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0068", "segment_id": "seg-0068", "start": 2994.94, "end": 3052.32, "time_label": "49:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, there's a lot of agency. And Donald Trump could have come to Jesus' moment and he strikes a deal with the Iranians and he restricts the Israelis, right? So Donald Trump says, for the greater good, I'm going to str..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "diagnoses": [ { "claim": "Jiang says the Iran war is following an escalation ladder whose logic is stronger than Trump's daily public narratives.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "temporal_scope": "Jiang's assessment on 2026-03-24 of the first three weeks of the Iran war.", "topic_tags": [ "iran-war", "escalation-ladder", "trump" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 107.11, "end": 171.89, "time_label": "1:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So Trump, these past three weeks, have been over the plate. Every single day, he comes up with a new narrative. But the reality on the ground is that this war is following, an escalation ladder. And it seems that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that Israeli threats against Iranian civilian infrastructure and Iranian retaliation threats against Gulf energy and desalination infrastructure are creating an existential crisis for the GCC.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "temporal_scope": "Current-war diagnosis as of 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "gcc", "energy-infrastructure", "desalination", "escalation" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 107.11, "end": 171.89, "time_label": "1:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So Trump, these past three weeks, have been over the plate. Every single day, he comes up with a new narrative. But the reality on the ground is that this war is following, an escalation ladder. And it seems that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says some anger at him is organic rather than coordinated and comes from fear about the war and resentment that he appears to be gaining attention from tragedy.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0009" ], "temporal_scope": "Self-interpretation of public reaction as of 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "public-reaction", "internet-attention", "fear" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 344.48, "end": 393.632, "time_label": "5:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So that is the smear campaign. But there's also an organic anger directed at me. I think a lot of it is fear about how this war will turn out and anger at the fact that I'm sort of using a tragedy, a global tragedy, to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that Israel's pursuit of the Greater Israel Project is one driver of the Middle East war and forces Iran and the United States into their own strategic responses.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "temporal_scope": "Jiang's war diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "greater-israel", "iran-war", "strategy" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 698.76, "end": 753.72, "time_label": "11:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So as we know, a lot of what's happening in the Middle East is driven by Israel's desire to achieve the Greater Israel Project. That, you know, right now Israel is being dominated by religious fanatics who believe that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Iran's weakness on the escalation ladder makes it more strategic, flexible, and controlled than the nuclear-armed United States and Israel.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "temporal_scope": "War diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "iran", "escalation-control", "asymmetry" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 866.75, "end": 922.19, "time_label": "14:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So the escalation ladder is just the idea that once you start a fight it develops its own momentum its own logic. You can't really stop it. So no two guys go into an argument thinking that they'll actually exchan..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 922.55, "end": 976.89, "time_label": "15:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So I did a lot of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu before and in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu it's all about maintaining calm maintaining control. If you are able to maintain calm control you can even defeat a bigger opponent who is stronger..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that Iranian calibration preserves diplomacy and public opinion while avoiding actions that would unify the GCC against Iran.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "temporal_scope": "War diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "iran", "gcc", "public-opinion", "hormuz" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 977.13, "end": 1038.27, "time_label": "16:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And so by doing that what issue what Iran is able to demonstrate is confidence in its arsenal. It's able to maintain diplomacy political diplomacy as well as global public opinion. They're also able to divide and conque..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the missing consequence for a bad war appears as collapsing morale among soldiers and the public, not necessarily immediate international punishment.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "temporal_scope": "Current-war diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "morale", "will-to-fight", "war-legitimacy" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1074.71, "end": 1142.55, "time_label": "17:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So there is actually a major consequence. A major consequence is the morale of your population which affects your will to fight. Right? So if people believe that it is a good cause they are willing to commit them..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1142.55, "end": 1206.25, "time_label": "19:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "is that Gerald Ford is now out of commission for the next two years because the damage was so extensive. And the theory is there's an investigation as to whether the sailors deliberately set fire in a laundry room to de..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that the U.S. military-industrial complex prefers never-ending wars and expensive systems over wars that serve national interest or prepare for real opponents.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "temporal_scope": "Structural diagnosis stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "military-industrial-complex", "war-on-terror", "bureaucracy" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1329.77, "end": 1386.83, "time_label": "22:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Because Iraq was a balance to Iran. So Saddam Hussein miscalculated. So the problem with the American military machine is that it's run by the military industrial complex and this is something that Eisenhower warned abo..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the Iran war exposes that U.S. air defenses, carriers, and advanced jets are not ready for a modern asymmetric opponent.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "temporal_scope": "Current-war diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "asymmetric-war", "air-defense", "carriers", "f-35" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1386.83, "end": 1450.773, "time_label": "23:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Iran is the failure of the military industrial complex to prepare for a modern war where your opponent is willing to fight back asymmetrically, right? So we see these air defense systems, the Patriot system, the THAAD s..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Iranian ability to hit supposedly unhittable systems demonstrates corruption and unreadiness in the U.S. military machine.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "temporal_scope": "Current-war diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "military-readiness", "corruption", "iran" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1450.773, "end": 1466.59, "time_label": "24:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, we were told it was unhittable. Unhittable. Yes, exactly. And the Iranians hit them with like pretty limited radar. So it just shows you the corruption of the military industrial complex right now in the United St..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that the Pentagon bureaucracy shapes reality to fit expectations because it does not want bad news about its limitations.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "temporal_scope": "Institutional diagnosis stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "pentagon", "bureaucracy", "bad-news" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 1701.6, "end": 1755.66, "time_label": "28:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And then in that iteration, in the final iteration, the Pentagon won, okay? So this shows you two things. The first thing is that the Pentagon is not ready to fight a war asymmetrically. It doesn't have the creativity,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says U.S. leaders face a sunk-cost trap where retreat means admitting America no longer looks invincible.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0041" ], "temporal_scope": "Current-war diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "sunk-cost", "empire", "credibility" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 1861.637, "end": 1888.12, "time_label": "31:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I mean, the entire world would no longer see America as an empire, as invincible. And the Pentagon could not really countenance this possibility. So what they'll do is they'll double down. It's very much like going to a..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Iranian morale is rooted in the belief that they are on the side of truth and in a Persian-Zoroastrian civilizational memory of serving God's will.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "temporal_scope": "Eschatological diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "iran", "persia", "zoroastrianism", "morale" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 1954.46, "end": 2005.42, "time_label": "32:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. Look, I think that the Iranians have extremely high morale, and the reason why is they think they are on the side of truth. You know, what people forget about the Iranians is that these are the Persians, and the P..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the financial system's problem is too much printed money and too many paper millionaires, so elites need to destroy excess wealth to regulate individuals.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "temporal_scope": "Economic diagnosis and prediction stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "financial-system", "wealth-destruction", "money-printing", "control" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2286.84, "end": 2342.18, "time_label": "38:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I actually think the real issue that the global elite need to resolve is the financial system, meaning that over the past 10, 20 years, they printed too much money. And there are too many individuals who are millionaire..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang reframes Epstein away from blackmail-island sensationalism and toward an alleged operative role in geopolitical manipulation, arms trafficking, money laundering, and financial crisis.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "temporal_scope": "Jiang's interpretation stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "epstein", "transnational-elite", "geopolitical-manipulation", "money-laundering" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 2405.98, "end": 2471.94, "time_label": "40:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So the Epstein class, I think people focus on the wrong thing, which is they focus on pizza gate, right? They focus on the idea that Epstein was talking about, like beef jerky, pizza and grape soda. And that's what capt..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 2472.1, "end": 2528.04, "time_label": "41:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But a lot of, if you just connect the dots, it suggests that he was in a certain way involved in 9 -11. You know, he was a neighbor to Howard Lugnick in Manhattan, right? So, and they were neighbors and their numbers we..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Israel benefits from dragging the war out and expanding the number of participants because destroying the GCC and Iran would leave Israel as the only regional power standing.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0062" ], "temporal_scope": "Game-theory diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "israel", "gcc", "regional-power", "war-expansion" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 2753.58, "end": 2816.18, "time_label": "45:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But now it's been reported that actually these missiles were fired from an Israeli submarine. So it is in the best interest, according to Game Theory, for Israel to drag this war out as much as possible and to drag in a..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Iran's long-term war aims include controlling the Strait of Hormuz, removing U.S. forces from the GCC, and doing enough damage to Israel to force respect before a peace treaty.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0063" ], "temporal_scope": "Game-theory diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "iran", "hormuz", "gcc", "peace-treaty", "credibility" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 2753.58, "end": 2816.18, "time_label": "45:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But now it's been reported that actually these missiles were fired from an Israeli submarine. So it is in the best interest, according to Game Theory, for Israel to drag this war out as much as possible and to drag in a..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 2816.4, "end": 2860.36, "time_label": "46:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "The first thing they need to do is establish control over the Strait of Hormuz. And that would be the main economic lifeline where they can charge a 10 % toll on any passage through the Strait of Hormuz. So that's numbe..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Israel's Greater Israel Project extends from the Nile to the Euphrates and does not include Persia, so Israel is not primarily interested in conquering Persia itself.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0065" ], "temporal_scope": "Game-theory diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "greater-israel", "persia", "israel" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "segment_id": "seg-0065", "start": 2869.12, "end": 2931.5, "time_label": "47:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So if you look at the Greater Israel Project, it's very clear that it extends from the Nile to the Euphrates. It does not include Persia. Israel is not actually interested in Persia. So according to Game Theory,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that Israel sees the United States, not Iran, as its main competitor in the Middle East because the U.S. military presence limits Israel's regional supremacy.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0066" ], "temporal_scope": "Game-theory diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "israel", "united-states", "middle-east", "regional-power" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "segment_id": "seg-0065", "start": 2869.12, "end": 2931.5, "time_label": "47:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So if you look at the Greater Israel Project, it's very clear that it extends from the Nile to the Euphrates. It does not include Persia. Israel is not actually interested in Persia. So according to Game Theory,..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0066", "segment_id": "seg-0066", "start": 2932.06, "end": 2952.64, "time_label": "48:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And Netanyahu's response was, well, it didn't work out great for us the first time, okay? So this is how the Israelis think. They see, they understand like their main competitor in the Middle East is actually not Iran,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the 2026 Iran war began with less procedural legitimation than the 2003 Iraq war, because the Trump administration did not build public support, seek congressional approval, or present a UN case.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0079" ], "temporal_scope": "Comparison stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "iraq-2003", "iran-war", "congress", "united-nations", "legitimacy" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0079", "segment_id": "seg-0079", "start": 3361.54, "end": 3425.14, "time_label": "56:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. very worrying that this war was started in a way that was not the way the war started in 2003. So in 2003, the Bush administration spent months rallying public support. They wanted congressional approval. They sp..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the plan for Iran is to balkanize it into ethnic enclaves and destroy limited water and power infrastructure so groups fight over resources for decades.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084" ], "temporal_scope": "War-endgame diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "iran", "balkanization", "water-infrastructure", "civilization" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084", "segment_id": "seg-0084", "start": 3491.25, "end": 3544.57, "time_label": "58:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, I mean, if you just look at America's history in the Middle East for the past 20 years, what they did in Iraq, what they did in Libya and Syria, I think there is a plan. The plan is to balkanize Iran into ethnic e..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Washington, D.C. has become an insular bubble where dissenters such as Joe Kent are pushed out and officials consume their own propaganda.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0087" ], "temporal_scope": "Media/institution diagnosis on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "washington-dc", "media-propaganda", "joe-kent", "bubble" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0087", "segment_id": "seg-0087", "start": 3615.27, "end": 3688.21, "time_label": "1:00:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So I think you're exactly correct in that the media will just be as propagandistic in this war against Iran as it was against Ukraine. So the problem with this, though... Unfortunately, Washington, D.C. has becom..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that propaganda contributed to disastrous Ukraine decisions and will similarly feed Trump comforting narratives that Iran is about to collapse.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0087", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0088" ], "temporal_scope": "Ukraine-Iran comparison on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "ukraine", "iran", "propaganda", "bad-decision-making" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0087", "segment_id": "seg-0087", "start": 3615.27, "end": 3688.21, "time_label": "1:00:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So I think you're exactly correct in that the media will just be as propagandistic in this war against Iran as it was against Ukraine. So the problem with this, though... Unfortunately, Washington, D.C. has becom..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0088", "segment_id": "seg-0088", "start": 3688.75, "end": 3737.45, "time_label": "1:01:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. They're aware of this. And so this war in Ukraine is dragging on for no particular reason, even though it's led to the destruction of Ukraine as a nation state, and even though this war is not winnable. And we can..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the United States could have faced the same Iran-war situation in January 2020 after Trump's assassination of Qasem Soleimani.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical counterfactual stated on 2026-03-24 about January 2020.", "topic_tags": [ "soleimani", "iran-war", "january-2020", "trump" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091", "segment_id": "seg-0091", "start": 3747.48, "end": 3805.1, "time_label": "1:02:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Sorry. Before we end, I just want to give a quick shout out to Tucker Carlson, okay? Sure. Because people don't remember this, but we could have been in this situation in January 2020, because that's when Trump ordered..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "other_claims": [ { "claim": "Jiang describes predictive history as a model refined by making public predictions and testing them against world events.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007" ], "temporal_scope": "Method description dated 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "predictive-history", "game-theory", "method" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 223.76, "end": 282.62, "time_label": "3:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, sure. So for the past two years, I've been developing a new system of predictive modeling where I take game theory and I make predictions about how world events will turn out. And by making these predictions, I ca..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says he remains largely silent about China because he lives and works there and believes criticism could endanger his school and family.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ], "temporal_scope": "Personal explanation dated 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "china", "speech-risk", "public-positioning" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 465.06, "end": 511.28, "time_label": "7:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay, first of all, I've been very mute about China. And the reality is that I live and work in China. If I were to say anything offensive, about China, then my school would get into a lot of trouble. And quite frankly,..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 511.28, "end": 524.52, "time_label": "8:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I think like the criticism of me about being mute, my criticism of the Chinese Communist Party is correct. But it's just because I'm working in the reality that is China. Okay. Yeah." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang distinguishes educator from propagandist: he says he could profit by parroting Chinese Communist Party talking points but does not want that role.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "temporal_scope": "Self-description on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "educator", "propaganda", "china" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 465.06, "end": 511.28, "time_label": "7:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Okay, first of all, I've been very mute about China. And the reality is that I live and work in China. If I were to say anything offensive, about China, then my school would get into a lot of trouble. And quite frankly,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the purpose of predictive modeling is not to enjoy being right but to increase collective agency over human events.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "temporal_scope": "Method purpose stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "agency", "prediction", "children", "future" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 592.12, "end": 643.46, "time_label": "9:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, so thank you so much for that, Natalie. So, you know, when my predictions are correct, you know, on February 28th, the Americans and Israelis attacked Tehran and this launched the war that we are in now. I couldn'..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says game theory must identify players, interests, strengths, and optimal strategies, but needs validation because outsiders lack direct access to player thinking.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "temporal_scope": "Method description dated 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "game-theory", "method", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 643.76, "end": 698.44, "time_label": "10:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So, you know, we have 8 billion people in this world and most people don't know what's going on and they choose to put their head in the sand. And what I'm trying to do with my YouTube channel is trying to say to people..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 698.76, "end": 753.72, "time_label": "11:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So as we know, a lot of what's happening in the Middle East is driven by Israel's desire to achieve the Greater Israel Project. That, you know, right now Israel is being dominated by religious fanatics who believe that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang defines eschatology as the religious worldview that motivates actors who believe they are acting for God and building a better world.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "temporal_scope": "Method description dated 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "eschatology", "religion", "strategy" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 754.16, "end": 815.26, "time_label": "12:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Historical patterns just means can we think about previous wars and compare, contrast how this war will play out based on previous wars? And so what I've done is I've looked at the Vietnam War I've looked at the Pelopon..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 815.26, "end": 822.04, "time_label": "13:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "you're able to figure out where these three converge together you are then able to make accurate predictions about how things should progress." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang treats the Pentagon's Millennium Challenge war game as evidence that asymmetric drone swarms could defeat the U.S. model when the opponent is not artificially constrained.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical evidence cited on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "millennium-challenge", "asymmetry", "drone-swarms", "iran" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 1637.56, "end": 1701.36, "time_label": "27:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So the key piece of evidence is 20 years ago, about 2002, the American military, the Pentagon, ran a war game called the Millennium Challenge, the Millennium Challenge. And the idea is to look at how America coul..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Operation Prosperity Guardian showed the United States could not defeat an opponent, the Houthis, who could not be intimidated, bribed, co-opted, assassinated, or made afraid to die.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0039" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical analogy cited on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "houthis", "operation-prosperity-guardian", "asymmetric-war" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 1701.6, "end": 1755.66, "time_label": "28:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And then in that iteration, in the final iteration, the Pentagon won, okay? So this shows you two things. The first thing is that the Pentagon is not ready to fight a war asymmetrically. It doesn't have the creativity,..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 1755.74, "end": 1811.32, "time_label": "29:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "The Houthis hid in their mountains. And the Houthis refused to surrender. And the Americans didn't know what to do because they were so used to being able to scare their opponents, to bribe them, to intimidate them, to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The host frames David Icke's theory as a planned transition toward AI control, biological connection to the brain, reduced rights, and restricted transaction power.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "temporal_scope": "Interviewer framing on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "david-icke", "ai-control", "patriot-act", "surveillance" ], "claim_type": "other", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 2061.74, "end": 2112.2, "time_label": "34:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "You brought up David Icke earlier. And, you know, we're big fans of David Icke here on this show. He's been a guest a number of times. One of the things that he's been saying is that this Iranian war, this collapse of I..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2112.5, "end": 2128.88, "time_label": "35:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "They are issuing in this, ushering in this new era of control just like the Patriot Act. So we can get all into the finite details about air power and this drone struck this particular oil plant and this. But really, it..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Clayton frames Joe Kent's view as: de-escalation requires restraining Israel because Israeli attacks keep subverting U.S. negotiation claims.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0060" ], "temporal_scope": "Interviewer framing on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "joe-kent", "de-escalation", "israel", "iran" ], "claim_type": "other", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 2615.38, "end": 2671.76, "time_label": "43:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "You know, Joe Kent last week, I think it was last week now, time is flying so quickly, resigned from the Trump administration basically trying to prevent this war in Iran. He says that everybody, all of the intelligence..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "segment_id": "seg-0060", "start": 2671.76, "end": 2691.34, "time_label": "44:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "now repeatedly in these past few weeks is that the United States says one thing and then the Israelis like go around quickly and launch some sort of attack on Iranian infrastructure. Like you mentioned, the oil and the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang proposes restricting dual citizens from U.S. Congress and national-security roles as one possible way the United States could limit Israeli influence.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0068" ], "temporal_scope": "Policy scenario stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "dual-citizenship", "national-security", "israel", "policy" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0068", "segment_id": "seg-0068", "start": 2994.94, "end": 3052.32, "time_label": "49:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, there's a lot of agency. And Donald Trump could have come to Jesus' moment and he strikes a deal with the Iranians and he restricts the Israelis, right? So Donald Trump says, for the greater good, I'm going to str..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang compares the proposed destruction of Iran with Iraq after 2003, where de-Baathification destroyed state capacity and helped produce ongoing sectarian violence.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0085" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical analogy stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "iraq", "de-baathification", "state-collapse", "sectarian-violence" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084", "segment_id": "seg-0084", "start": 3491.25, "end": 3544.57, "time_label": "58:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, I mean, if you just look at America's history in the Middle East for the past 20 years, what they did in Iraq, what they did in Libya and Syria, I think there is a plan. The plan is to balkanize Iran into ethnic e..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0085", "segment_id": "seg-0085", "start": 3544.79, "end": 3582.59, "time_label": "59:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "The problem with that is that everyone who worked in government, everyone who worked in the military, everyone who worked in the police was a member of the Baptist party. And so with that one order, it destroyed the nat..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang credits Tucker Carlson with helping prevent escalation to war with Iran in January 2020 by using his Fox News platform and possibly personal access to Trump.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091" ], "temporal_scope": "Jiang's retrospective assessment on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "tucker-carlson", "iran-war", "fox-news", "trump" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091", "segment_id": "seg-0091", "start": 3747.48, "end": 3805.1, "time_label": "1:02:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Sorry. Before we end, I just want to give a quick shout out to Tucker Carlson, okay? Sure. Because people don't remember this, but we could have been in this situation in January 2020, because that's when Trump ordered..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Carlson's antiwar stance was heroic because he spoke out from a major platform at great personal risk.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0092" ], "temporal_scope": "Normative evaluation stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "antiwar-speech", "tucker-carlson", "personal-risk" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091", "segment_id": "seg-0091", "start": 3747.48, "end": 3805.1, "time_label": "1:02:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Sorry. Before we end, I just want to give a quick shout out to Tucker Carlson, okay? Sure. Because people don't remember this, but we could have been in this situation in January 2020, because that's when Trump ordered..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0092", "segment_id": "seg-0092", "start": 3805.82, "end": 3811.58, "time_label": "1:03:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "to speak out against the war and great personal risk yes he continues to do that at great" } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The host connects Carlson's later Fox firing to his opposition to the Ukraine war and U.S. involvement, echoing Jiang's antiwar praise.", "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0093" ], "temporal_scope": "Host interpretation stated on 2026-03-24.", "topic_tags": [ "tucker-carlson", "ukraine-war", "fox-news", "neocons" ], "claim_type": "other", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0093", "segment_id": "seg-0093", "start": 3811.58, "end": 3852.88, "time_label": "1:03:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "personal risk so yeah yeah and then speaking out against the ukraine war and the the united states involvement in that you know you know that's why yes that and that's why he got fired from fox news um clearly professor..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "glossary_terms": [ { "term": "agency over human events", "usages": [ "Jiang's aim for predictive modeling: giving ordinary people a way to understand events early enough to affect them." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 592.12, "end": 643.46, "time_label": "9:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, so thank you so much for that, Natalie. So, you know, when my predictions are correct, you know, on February 28th, the Americans and Israelis attacked Tehran and this launched the war that we are in now. I couldn'..." } ] }, { "term": "antiwar platform risk", "usages": [ "The idea that a public figure with a major platform can materially affect war escalation by speaking against it, but pays institutional costs for doing so." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0092" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091", "segment_id": "seg-0091", "start": 3747.48, "end": 3805.1, "time_label": "1:02:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Sorry. Before we end, I just want to give a quick shout out to Tucker Carlson, okay? Sure. Because people don't remember this, but we could have been in this situation in January 2020, because that's when Trump ordered..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0092", "segment_id": "seg-0092", "start": 3805.82, "end": 3811.58, "time_label": "1:03:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "to speak out against the war and great personal risk yes he continues to do that at great" } ] }, { "term": "balkanize Iran", "usages": [ "Jiang's description of breaking Iran into ethnic enclaves and resource-conflict zones rather than merely changing its government." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084", "segment_id": "seg-0084", "start": 3491.25, "end": 3544.57, "time_label": "58:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, I mean, if you just look at America's history in the Middle East for the past 20 years, what they did in Iraq, what they did in Libya and Syria, I think there is a plan. The plan is to balkanize Iran into ethnic e..." } ] }, { "term": "come to Jesus moment", "usages": [ "Jiang's phrase for a decisive moral-strategic reversal in which Trump chooses a deal with Iran and the GCC over continuing Israeli-led escalation." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0068" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0068", "segment_id": "seg-0068", "start": 2994.94, "end": 3052.32, "time_label": "49:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, there's a lot of agency. And Donald Trump could have come to Jesus' moment and he strikes a deal with the Iranians and he restricts the Israelis, right? So Donald Trump says, for the greater good, I'm going to str..." } ] }, { "term": "de-Baathification", "usages": [ "The Iraq occupation policy Jiang uses as an analogy for destroying state capacity by excluding the personnel who ran government, military, and police." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0085" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084", "segment_id": "seg-0084", "start": 3491.25, "end": 3544.57, "time_label": "58:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, I mean, if you just look at America's history in the Middle East for the past 20 years, what they did in Iraq, what they did in Libya and Syria, I think there is a plan. The plan is to balkanize Iran into ethnic e..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0085", "segment_id": "seg-0085", "start": 3544.79, "end": 3582.59, "time_label": "59:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "The problem with that is that everyone who worked in government, everyone who worked in the military, everyone who worked in the police was a member of the Baptist party. And so with that one order, it destroyed the nat..." } ] }, { "term": "Emergency Powers Act", "usages": [ "Jiang's shorthand for emergency authority he predicts Trump could use after domestic unrest to bypass elections and pursue a third term." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076", "segment_id": "seg-0076", "start": 3282.08, "end": 3314.62, "time_label": "54:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "the military on Donald Trump to institute a national draft and so I think he will have no choice in the matter but to institute a national draft in which case you will have riots throughout America and they have a plan..." } ] }, { "term": "Epstein class", "usages": [ "The host's and Jiang's label for a transnational elite network allegedly using operatives like Epstein for blackmail, finance, and geopolitical manipulation." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0055" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2354.68, "end": 2404.57, "time_label": "39:14", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Yes. I do want to talk about these dark forces a little bit more because the Epstein class is clearly a real thing. And how much of the Epstein class do you think is just that they're satanic perverts doing things for t..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 2405.98, "end": 2471.94, "time_label": "40:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So the Epstein class, I think people focus on the wrong thing, which is they focus on pizza gate, right? They focus on the idea that Epstein was talking about, like beef jerky, pizza and grape soda. And that's what capt..." } ] }, { "term": "escalation control", "usages": [ "The ability to choose calibrated moves that shape the pace, targets, and political consequences of a conflict." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 823.23, "end": 865.91, "time_label": "13:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Now you've said Iran's edge in all of this I believe and if I'm misquoting you please forgive me is escalation control. Like they so we were talking about the escalation ladder maybe you can lay that out because I think..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 977.13, "end": 1038.27, "time_label": "16:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And so by doing that what issue what Iran is able to demonstrate is confidence in its arsenal. It's able to maintain diplomacy political diplomacy as well as global public opinion. They're also able to divide and conque..." } ] }, { "term": "escalation ladder", "usages": [ "The self-reinforcing war logic by which actors move from one level of violence or retaliation to the next even when public narratives claim control." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 107.11, "end": 171.89, "time_label": "1:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So Trump, these past three weeks, have been over the plate. Every single day, he comes up with a new narrative. But the reality on the ground is that this war is following, an escalation ladder. And it seems that..." } ] }, { "term": "eschatology", "usages": [ "In Jiang's method, the religious or sacred worldview that shapes why actors believe violence serves God or a better world." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 754.16, "end": 815.26, "time_label": "12:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Historical patterns just means can we think about previous wars and compare, contrast how this war will play out based on previous wars? And so what I've done is I've looked at the Vietnam War I've looked at the Pelopon..." } ] }, { "term": "Greater Israel Project", "usages": [ "Jiang's name for Israel's alleged regional ambition from the Nile to the Euphrates, excluding Persia but requiring removal of rival regional powers." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0065" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "segment_id": "seg-0065", "start": 2869.12, "end": 2931.5, "time_label": "47:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So if you look at the Greater Israel Project, it's very clear that it extends from the Nile to the Euphrates. It does not include Persia. Israel is not actually interested in Persia. So according to Game Theory,..." } ] }, { "term": "historical patterning", "usages": [ "Comparing the present conflict with prior wars to identify repeated strategic trajectories and likely next moves." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 754.16, "end": 815.26, "time_label": "12:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Historical patterns just means can we think about previous wars and compare, contrast how this war will play out based on previous wars? And so what I've done is I've looked at the Vietnam War I've looked at the Pelopon..." } ] }, { "term": "inner fire", "usages": [ "The spiritual morale Jiang says comes from submitting to truth, righteousness, and the will of God in a good cause." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2005.68, "end": 2060.7, "time_label": "33:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But the Persian people are like, no, we have to live the truth. We refuse to submit to the lie. So if they attack us, we'll fight back. But we will never ever be the aggressor. We will never ever choose the path of viol..." } ] }, { "term": "inverted pyramid", "usages": [ "Host's label for Jiang's critique that U.S. force structure over-relies on air power and high-tech systems while lacking the ground-war base needed for regime change." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 1237.29, "end": 1269.64, "time_label": "20:37", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "Let's talk about this air power because you've been critical of I think you've referred to it as the inverted pyramid where the United States really relies on air power more than anything whether it's drones whether it'..." } ] }, { "term": "military industrial complex", "usages": [ "Jiang uses Eisenhower's phrase for the weapons bureaucracy he says pursues procurement and endless war instead of national strategic success." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1329.77, "end": 1386.83, "time_label": "22:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Because Iraq was a balance to Iran. So Saddam Hussein miscalculated. So the problem with the American military machine is that it's run by the military industrial complex and this is something that Eisenhower warned abo..." } ] }, { "term": "Millennium Challenge", "usages": [ "A Pentagon war game Jiang uses as evidence that U.S. systems can be overwhelmed by asymmetric Iranian-style tactics unless the opponent is artificially constrained." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 1637.56, "end": 1701.36, "time_label": "27:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So the key piece of evidence is 20 years ago, about 2002, the American military, the Pentagon, ran a war game called the Millennium Challenge, the Millennium Challenge. And the idea is to look at how America coul..." } ] }, { "term": "mission creep", "usages": [ "The process by which limited deployment expands because the military institution is built to continue until it can claim victory." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0075" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0075", "segment_id": "seg-0075", "start": 3206.86, "end": 3282.08, "time_label": "53:26", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, so I will say that I think this war is heading in the direction of another Vietnam. You know, at that time it was a military war. You know, the three first wars were like, you know, there was a Japanese war and th..." } ] }, { "term": "Operation Prosperity Guardian", "usages": [ "The U.S. naval campaign against the Houthis that Jiang treats as a recent proof of American inability to beat a resilient asymmetric opponent." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0039" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 1701.6, "end": 1755.66, "time_label": "28:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And then in that iteration, in the final iteration, the Pentagon won, okay? So this shows you two things. The first thing is that the Pentagon is not ready to fight a war asymmetrically. It doesn't have the creativity,..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 1755.74, "end": 1811.32, "time_label": "29:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "The Houthis hid in their mountains. And the Houthis refused to surrender. And the Americans didn't know what to do because they were so used to being able to scare their opponents, to bribe them, to intimidate them, to..." } ] }, { "term": "predictive history", "usages": [ "Jiang's term for combining game-theory prediction with historical testing to refine a model of world events." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 223.76, "end": 282.62, "time_label": "3:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, sure. So for the past two years, I've been developing a new system of predictive modeling where I take game theory and I make predictions about how world events will turn out. And by making these predictions, I ca..." } ] }, { "term": "script", "usages": [ "Jiang's shorthand for elite plans or occult long-range designs, which he says still interact with player agency rather than determining everything automatically." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 2129.51, "end": 2188.15, "time_label": "35:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. I mean, I completely agree with David Icke's assessment. I think this is the future we're heading towards. My main issue with David Icke is that he thinks this is all deliberate. This is all scripted. This is all..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 2188.43, "end": 2234.07, "time_label": "36:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So on where the world is heading, I agree with David Icke. But I will also point out that according to game theory, we cannot discount certain players in this game. So for example, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are ma..." } ] }, { "term": "shock and awe", "usages": [ "The U.S. habit of repeated overwhelming strikes that Jiang says persists because leaders do not know what else to do." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 1811.68, "end": 1861.637, "time_label": "30:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "These past weeks have shown shock and awe doesn't really work, but they don't know what else to do. So they keep on doing it. And now what they're doing is to think about sending the Marines in for an infamous landing b..." } ] }, { "term": "Strait of Hormuz control", "usages": [ "A long-term Iranian objective in Jiang's game-theory account: control a core economic lifeline and charge passage after forcing U.S. exit." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0063" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 2816.4, "end": 2860.36, "time_label": "46:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "The first thing they need to do is establish control over the Strait of Hormuz. And that would be the main economic lifeline where they can charge a 10 % toll on any passage through the Strait of Hormuz. So that's numbe..." } ] }, { "term": "sunk cost fallacy", "usages": [ "Jiang's casino analogy for why U.S. leaders double down in a failing war rather than accept reputational loss." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0041" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 1861.637, "end": 1888.12, "time_label": "31:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I mean, the entire world would no longer see America as an empire, as invincible. And the Pentagon could not really countenance this possibility. So what they'll do is they'll double down. It's very much like going to a..." } ] }, { "term": "transnational elite", "usages": [ "Jiang's term for actors above the nation-state who can manipulate geopolitical events for their own benefit." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0057" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 2528.26, "end": 2584.58, "time_label": "42:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And their response was, well, we wanted money from him, right? So these are billionaires trying to beg Epstein for money. So something's wrong with our current conception of the world. And so what I will say is there is..." } ] }, { "term": "will to fight", "usages": [ "The morale and legitimacy reserve that makes a population or military willing to sacrifice for a war." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1074.71, "end": 1142.55, "time_label": "17:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So there is actually a major consequence. A major consequence is the morale of your population which affects your will to fight. Right? So if people believe that it is a good cause they are willing to commit them..." } ] } ], "chronology_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007" ], "note": "Jiang dates the development of his predictive-history system to roughly two years before the 2026-03-24 interview and says the public attention followed his Iran-war predictions appearing to pan out.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": true, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 223.76, "end": 282.62, "time_label": "3:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, sure. So for the past two years, I've been developing a new system of predictive modeling where I take game theory and I make predictions about how world events will turn out. And by making these predictions, I ca..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "note": "Jiang dates the attack that launched the current war to February 28 and says his reaction lasted for the following two weeks.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": true, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 592.12, "end": 643.46, "time_label": "9:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah, so thank you so much for that, Natalie. So, you know, when my predictions are correct, you know, on February 28th, the Americans and Israelis attacked Tehran and this launched the war that we are in now. I couldn'..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "note": "Jiang explicitly names Vietnam, Athens' Sicilian expedition, and Nazi Germany's invasion of Russia as analogies used for the Iran-war prediction in this March 2026 interview.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": true, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 754.16, "end": 815.26, "time_label": "12:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Historical patterns just means can we think about previous wars and compare, contrast how this war will play out based on previous wars? And so what I've done is I've looked at the Vietnam War I've looked at the Pelopon..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "note": "Jiang distinguishes the 2003 Iraq invasion from the current Iran scenario by saying Iraq was not a real test because Saddam lacked air defense and miscalculated American incentives.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": true, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 1271.79, "end": 1329.77, "time_label": "21:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So if you want to win this war what you do is you spend two years to stage two million troops around Iran. Okay. So you have 500,000 troops in Pakistan ready to assault from southeast from the southeast corner. Y..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1329.77, "end": 1386.83, "time_label": "22:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Because Iraq was a balance to Iran. So Saddam Hussein miscalculated. So the problem with the American military machine is that it's run by the military industrial complex and this is something that Eisenhower warned abo..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "note": "Jiang places Millennium Challenge around 2002 and Operation Prosperity Guardian after Gaza-related Red Sea disruptions, using both as precursors to his 2026 Iran-war forecast.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": true, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 1637.56, "end": 1701.36, "time_label": "27:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So the key piece of evidence is 20 years ago, about 2002, the American military, the Pentagon, ran a war game called the Millennium Challenge, the Millennium Challenge. And the idea is to look at how America coul..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 1701.6, "end": 1755.66, "time_label": "28:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And then in that iteration, in the final iteration, the Pentagon won, okay? So this shows you two things. The first thing is that the Pentagon is not ready to fight a war asymmetrically. It doesn't have the creativity,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "note": "Jiang reaches back roughly 3,000 years to Persian/Zoroastrian history to explain current Iranian morale in March 2026.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": true, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 1954.46, "end": 2005.42, "time_label": "32:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Yeah. Look, I think that the Iranians have extremely high morale, and the reason why is they think they are on the side of truth. You know, what people forget about the Iranians is that these are the Persians, and the P..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "note": "Jiang frames the financial-system pressure as accumulating over the prior 10 to 20 years before the March 2026 war crisis.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": true, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2286.84, "end": 2342.18, "time_label": "38:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I actually think the real issue that the global elite need to resolve is the financial system, meaning that over the past 10, 20 years, they printed too much money. And there are too many individuals who are millionaire..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0059" ], "note": "The Joe Kent resignation is described by the host as occurring the prior week; use the interview date, 2026-03-24, as the source date unless separately sourced.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 2615.38, "end": 2671.76, "time_label": "43:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "You know, Joe Kent last week, I think it was last week now, time is flying so quickly, resigned from the Trump administration basically trying to prevent this war in Iran. He says that everybody, all of the intelligence..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0066" ], "note": "Jiang cites Netanyahu reading Barry Strauss's Rome versus the Jews as evidence for how Israeli leadership interprets Rome/America analogies in the current war.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": true, "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0065", "segment_id": "seg-0065", "start": 2869.12, "end": 2931.5, "time_label": "47:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So if you look at the Greater Israel Project, it's very clear that it extends from the Nile to the Euphrates. It does not include Persia. Israel is not actually interested in Persia. So according to Game Theory,..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0066", "segment_id": "seg-0066", "start": 2932.06, "end": 2952.64, "time_label": "48:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And Netanyahu's response was, well, it didn't work out great for us the first time, okay? So this is how the Israelis think. They see, they understand like their main competitor in the Middle East is actually not Iran,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0079" ], "note": "Jiang explicitly compares March 2026 Iran-war legitimation with the Bush administration's months-long 2003 Iraq-war public and UN case-building.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": true, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0079", "segment_id": "seg-0079", "start": 3361.54, "end": 3425.14, "time_label": "56:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. very worrying that this war was started in a way that was not the way the war started in 2003. So in 2003, the Bush administration spent months rallying public support. They wanted congressional approval. They sp..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0085" ], "note": "Jiang links Iraq 2003, Libya, Syria, and the current Iran-war plan as one historical pattern of state/civilizational destruction.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": true, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084", "segment_id": "seg-0084", "start": 3491.25, "end": 3544.57, "time_label": "58:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, I mean, if you just look at America's history in the Middle East for the past 20 years, what they did in Iraq, what they did in Libya and Syria, I think there is a plan. The plan is to balkanize Iran into ethnic e..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0085", "segment_id": "seg-0085", "start": 3544.79, "end": 3582.59, "time_label": "59:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "The problem with that is that everyone who worked in government, everyone who worked in the military, everyone who worked in the police was a member of the Baptist party. And so with that one order, it destroyed the nat..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091" ], "note": "Jiang places the Soleimani assassination and near-war moment in January 2020 and contrasts it with the March 2026 Iran-war situation.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": true, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091", "segment_id": "seg-0091", "start": 3747.48, "end": 3805.1, "time_label": "1:02:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Sorry. Before we end, I just want to give a quick shout out to Tucker Carlson, okay? Sure. Because people don't remember this, but we could have been in this situation in January 2020, because that's when Trump ordered..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "uncertainty_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "note": "The claim of a coordinated smear campaign is Jiang's interpretation of media behavior; the packet does not independently verify coordination.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 282.86, "end": 344.34, "time_label": "4:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And so I've received a lot of attention online. And there are two types of attention. The first is that there seems to be a coordinated spirit campaign against me, mainly by individuals who believe that I am maybe attac..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "note": "The host summarizes criticism from social media; this packet should not treat those accusations as established facts.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 448.32, "end": 464.42, "time_label": "7:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "So to be clear, you're not part of the deep state. You're not part of... I've seen some people being critical saying he's part of the Chinese Communist Party and therefore he has an agenda. He's not being critical of Ch..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "note": "Jiang cites rumors and reported investigations about fires on the Gerald R. Ford; preserve as Jiang's stated evidence, not verified fact.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1074.71, "end": 1142.55, "time_label": "17:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So there is actually a major consequence. A major consequence is the morale of your population which affects your will to fight. Right? So if people believe that it is a good cause they are willing to commit them..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1142.55, "end": 1206.25, "time_label": "19:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "is that Gerald Ford is now out of commission for the next two years because the damage was so extensive. And the theory is there's an investigation as to whether the sailors deliberately set fire in a laundry room to de..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "note": "Jiang compresses the Millennium Challenge account into a predictive-history example; retain as his cited evidence without adjudicating every historical detail here.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 1637.56, "end": 1701.36, "time_label": "27:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Right. So the key piece of evidence is 20 years ago, about 2002, the American military, the Pentagon, ran a war game called the Millennium Challenge, the Millennium Challenge. And the idea is to look at how America coul..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "note": "The host's David Icke framing includes speculative claims; distinguish interviewer pressure from Jiang's later answer.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 2061.74, "end": 2112.2, "time_label": "34:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "You brought up David Icke earlier. And, you know, we're big fans of David Icke here on this show. He's been a guest a number of times. One of the things that he's been saying is that this Iranian war, this collapse of I..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2112.5, "end": 2128.88, "time_label": "35:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_01", "excerpt": "They are issuing in this, ushering in this new era of control just like the Patriot Act. So we can get all into the finite details about air power and this drone struck this particular oil plant and this. But really, it..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "note": "Epstein-related assertions are speculative and should be attributed to Jiang's interpretation rather than presented as verified episode fact.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 2405.98, "end": 2471.94, "time_label": "40:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "So the Epstein class, I think people focus on the wrong thing, which is they focus on pizza gate, right? They focus on the idea that Epstein was talking about, like beef jerky, pizza and grape soda. And that's what capt..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 2472.1, "end": 2528.04, "time_label": "41:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But a lot of, if you just connect the dots, it suggests that he was in a certain way involved in 9 -11. You know, he was a neighbor to Howard Lugnick in Manhattan, right? So, and they were neighbors and their numbers we..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0058" ], "note": "Claims about secret societies, elite families, and Epstein's represented interests are Jiang's speculative framework and require careful attribution.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 2528.26, "end": 2584.58, "time_label": "42:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And their response was, well, we wanted money from him, right? So these are billionaires trying to beg Epstein for money. So something's wrong with our current conception of the world. And so what I will say is there is..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 2584.82, "end": 2614.76, "time_label": "43:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "And if you look at his emails, what he will say is there were three major Jewish families in Europe. They were the Rothschilds, the Epsteins, and the Gutmans. And he said, he told Peter Thiel, I represent the Rothschild..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0062" ], "note": "False-flag and Israeli-submarine claims are presented by Jiang as reports or fit with a pattern; do not independently certify them in the public read.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 2692.1, "end": 2753.34, "time_label": "44:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "I completely agree with his assessment. So in the early days of the war, on the first day, a drone struck the Saudi Air Force facility in Saudi Arabia. And we assumed at first that it was Iranians. But later it was repo..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 2753.58, "end": 2816.18, "time_label": "45:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "But now it's been reported that actually these missiles were fired from an Israeli submarine. So it is in the best interest, according to Game Theory, for Israel to drag this war out as much as possible and to drag in a..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0068" ], "note": "The dual-citizenship proposal is Jiang's stated policy scenario; it is politically charged and should be represented carefully if used publicly.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0068", "segment_id": "seg-0068", "start": 2994.94, "end": 3052.32, "time_label": "49:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, there's a lot of agency. And Donald Trump could have come to Jesus' moment and he strikes a deal with the Iranians and he restricts the Israelis, right? So Donald Trump says, for the greater good, I'm going to str..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076" ], "note": "The draft, riot, National Guard, emergency-powers, and third-term sequence is Jiang's prediction, not an established outcome.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0076", "segment_id": "seg-0076", "start": 3282.08, "end": 3314.62, "time_label": "54:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "the military on Donald Trump to institute a national draft and so I think he will have no choice in the matter but to institute a national draft in which case you will have riots throughout America and they have a plan..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084" ], "note": "The claim of an intentional plan to destroy Persian civilization is Jiang's inferred endgame; public prose should attribute it as his argument.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0084", "segment_id": "seg-0084", "start": 3491.25, "end": 3544.57, "time_label": "58:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Look, I mean, if you just look at America's history in the Middle East for the past 20 years, what they did in Iraq, what they did in Libya and Syria, I think there is a plan. The plan is to balkanize Iran into ethnic e..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091" ], "note": "The causal claim that Tucker Carlson saved the United States from nuclear war is Jiang's interpretation and should be attributed as such.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-pvhuffwtu3i@transcript:v1#seg-0091", "segment_id": "seg-0091", "start": 3747.48, "end": 3805.1, "time_label": "1:02:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_02", "excerpt": "Sorry. Before we end, I just want to give a quick shout out to Tucker Carlson, okay? Sure. Because people don't remember this, but we could have been in this situation in January 2020, because that's when Trump ordered..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ] }