prediction
One major unknown is whether the United States and Israel can assassinate Iran's Supreme Leader, which Jiang thinks would create a succession crisis and advantage America and Israel.
Topic brief
A Jiang Lens evidence brief for this topic, built from source tags, transcript matches, and linked source refs.
Supreme Leader
The three concrete questions Jiang says to watch are whether America kills Iran's Supreme Leader, what Putin does, and whether China participates on Iran's side.
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Key Notes
model
The three concrete questions Jiang says to watch are whether America kills Iran's Supreme Leader, what Putin does, and whether China participates on Iran's side.
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prediction
Jiang says Raisi was widely expected to become supreme leader after Khamenei, and that if Raisi became Ayatollah he could shift major policy in Iran.
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model
Any new Ayatollah with an independent power base would need to reduce IRGC power, while Mojtaba Khamenei would allow the IRGC to preserve its economic and political monopoly.
Timestamped Evidence
Transcript
"...first big unknown is, what happens if the Americans kill the Supreme Leader of Iran? This would trigger a secession crisis. His son is..."
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"...that competent. So I'm not sure if the death of the Supreme Leader, the assassination of the Supreme Leader, what that would do to..."
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"...watch out for. Will the Americans be able to kill the Supreme Leader? Because that is definitely on the agenda. And they're investing a..."
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"Everyone agreed that Abraham Raisi would most likely become supreme leader. The supreme leader of Iran when the current Ayatollah Khamenei died, okay? So..."
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"Because the protests are so widespread, the Revolutionary Guard Corps ironically has become more powerful because they are seen as the most loyal to..."
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"Now, if... But if the current leader's son, Moshtaba Khomeini, were to become the new Ayatollah, then things would stay the same. And the..."
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"...okay? So, let's just use game theory. We are the leader, supreme leader of North Korea. It is a dictatorship. Everyone worships me. It's..."
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"...because the Americans destroyed a lot of infrastructure. They killed the Supreme leader. And the, uh, the, uh, the, uh, the, uh, the, uh,..."
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"...nothing by fighting you, okay? So even though you've killed the supreme leader, and you've killed many of their leaders in fact, the elite..."
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"...launched a decapitation strike against the Ayatollah Khamenei, who is the supreme leader of Iran. Now there are arguments and disputes about as to..."
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"...all very heavily ritualized society, which worships the divinity of the supreme leader. We may hate this society, we may be disgusted by this..."
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"...is very likely that if Raisi died. Raisi became the next supreme leader, their authority and their policies would be challenged. Okay? And so..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
Reading
A source-grounded reading of the lecture's central move: the crash was probably an accident, but if it was not, Jiang asks who had opportunity, motive, and the most to gain.
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