prediction
One major unknown is whether the United States and Israel can assassinate Iran's Supreme Leader, which Jiang thinks would create a succession crisis and advantage America and Israel.
Topic brief
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Supreme Leader
A transcript-matched topic anchored by excerpts such as "supreme leader and the sunnis believe no that's not necessarily the case okay and that caused a massive schism which continues to today okay..."
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Topic Scope And Freshness
Key Notes
model
The three concrete questions Jiang says to watch are whether America kills Iran's Supreme Leader, what Putin does, and whether China participates on Iran's side.
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prediction
Jiang says Raisi was widely expected to become supreme leader after Khamenei, and that if Raisi became Ayatollah he could shift major policy in Iran.
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model
Any new Ayatollah with an independent power base would need to reduce IRGC power, while Mojtaba Khamenei would allow the IRGC to preserve its economic and political monopoly.
Timestamped Evidence
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"...first big unknown is, what happens if the Americans kill the Supreme Leader of Iran? This would trigger a secession crisis. His son is..."
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"...that competent. So I'm not sure if the death of the Supreme Leader, the assassination of the Supreme Leader, what that would do to..."
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"...watch out for. Will the Americans be able to kill the Supreme Leader? Because that is definitely on the agenda. And they're investing a..."
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"Everyone agreed that Abraham Raisi would most likely become supreme leader. The supreme leader of Iran when the current Ayatollah Khamenei died, okay? So..."
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"Because the protests are so widespread, the Revolutionary Guard Corps ironically has become more powerful because they are seen as the most loyal to..."
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"Now, if... But if the current leader's son, Moshtaba Khomeini, were to become the new Ayatollah, then things would stay the same. And the..."
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"supreme leader and the sunnis believe no that's not necessarily the case okay and that caused a massive schism which continues to today okay..."
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"...okay? So, let's just use game theory. We are the leader, supreme leader of North Korea. It is a dictatorship. Everyone worships me. It's..."
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"...because the Americans destroyed a lot of infrastructure. They killed the Supreme leader. And the, uh, the, uh, the, uh, the, uh, the, uh,..."
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"...on because obviously those who wanted regime change have seen the supreme leader taken down and many of his top people taken down but..."
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"...way chafing under the restraint imposed on them by the previous supreme leader. And now they feel unrestrained. It's come down to whether or..."
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"...the son, but he's apparently still alive and is the new supreme leader."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
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A source-grounded reading of Jiang's central claim: late Inferno is where private vice hardens into social design.
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Jiang treats the Middle East conflict and global monetary system as parts of one strategic architecture: empire, geography, and control of energy channels.
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The interview begins as a fight over whether the Iran war has helped anyone, then turns into a harder question: what happens when a regional war reveals that waterways, energy corridors, diaspora hopes, and...
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The interview begins with Iran and the petrodollar, but Jiang's answer keeps widening.
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A university lecture becomes a warning to China: tactics, utility, and clever people are not enough.
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Danny asks whether Jiang's Iran-war prediction is now playing out.
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Piers brings Jiang on because two earlier predictions already landed and a third appears to be unfolding: Trump won, war with Iran came, and now the question is whether America can survive the kind...
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