prediction
He says it is possible that the Revolutionary Guard killed President Ibrahim Raisi because Raisi was preventing war.
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Topic brief
A Jiang Lens evidence brief for this topic, built from source tags, transcript matches, and linked source refs.
Raisi
Jiang's beneficiary analysis says the IRGC gains from Raisi's death because Raisi as supreme leader would likely challenge its authority, while Mojtaba Khamenei's accession would preserve its monopoly of power.
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Key Notes
prediction
Jiang says Raisi was widely expected to become supreme leader after Khamenei, and that if Raisi became Ayatollah he could shift major policy in Iran.
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diagnosis
Jiang suspects that politicians such as Raisi urged patience and restraint after Soleimani's killing and the April 2024 Damascus strike, while the IRGC wanted vengeance and war.
model
Jiang's beneficiary analysis says the IRGC gains from Raisi's death because Raisi as supreme leader would likely challenge its authority, while Mojtaba Khamenei's accession would preserve its monopoly of power.
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Timestamped Evidence
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"...Revolutionary Guard Corps killed last week the president of Iran, Ibrahim Raisi, because he was preventing war, okay?"
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"Everyone agreed that Abraham Raisi would most likely become supreme leader. The supreme leader of Iran when the current Ayatollah Khamenei died, okay? So..."
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"...war. But we can suspect that it was the politicians like Raisi who basically said, no guys, let's be patient."
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"...Corps was, let's just go to war. And again, I'm sure Raisi and his team said to them. Guys, we cannot beat the United..."
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"...theory and we examine who would benefit from the death of Raisi, this group of people, the Revolutionary Guard Corps, would most benefit. Because..."
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"...about the question, how and why did the Iranian president, Ibrahim Raisi, die? Okay, so when you do history or when you do analysis..."
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"...be the next Ayatollah. The first contender, the most likely, is Raisi. The second contender is actually Khamenei's son, Moshtaba Khamenei. Okay? So with..."
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"...Okay. So Celine asked a great question. What changes now that Raisi is dead? Okay?"
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"...president, will become the new president. And this is important because Raisi does not come from the Revolutionary Guard Corps. He comes from the..."
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"...way. Just because these things might happen. Does not mean that. Raisi was killed by the Revolutionary Guard Corp. Okay? Do you understand? But..."
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"...no actual information or evidence. Okay? I am just saying. Okay. Raisi died. And it was probably an accident. But if it was not..."
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"...people will die. For no reason. And that's why. Politicians like Raisi and others. Are like. Let's not go to war."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
Reading
A source-grounded reading of the lecture's central claim: the Iran war that looks like American domination is the moment the United States becomes trapped, because geography, supply, domestic politics, sunk cost, and nuclear deterrence...
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Reading
A source-grounded reading of the lecture's central move: the crash was probably an accident, but if it was not, Jiang asks who had opportunity, motive, and the most to gain.
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Related Topics
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