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Any new Ayatollah with an independent power base would need to reduce IRGC power, while Mojtaba Khamenei would allow the IRGC to preserve its economic and political monopoly.
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If Raisi is removed from the succession path, Jiang says Mojtaba Khamenei becomes more likely to succeed, but father-to-son leadership would produce a legitimacy crisis because Iran's revolution was against monarchy.
Jiang identifies the IRGC as the institutional actor that would benefit from Mojtaba Khamenei becoming Ayatollah after Raisi's death.
Any new Ayatollah with an independent power base would need to reduce IRGC power, while Mojtaba Khamenei would allow the IRGC to preserve its economic and political monopoly.
Jiang's beneficiary analysis says the IRGC gains from Raisi's death because Raisi as supreme leader would likely challenge its authority, while Mojtaba Khamenei's accession would preserve its monopoly of power.
Jiang says Khamenei cultivated personal ties with the IRGC, and Mojtaba Khamenei's unpopularity would make him dependent on IRGC support and obedient to IRGC policy if he became supreme leader.
"And what people say is, and again, guys, I'm working with very limited information. I don't know Iran that well. I just read the..."
"Okay? And then the question then is, okay, alright, so Moshtaba Khamenei benefits, but who would benefit from having him as Ayatollah? And the..."
"Because the protests are so widespread, the Revolutionary Guard Corps ironically has become more powerful because they are seen as the most loyal to..."
"Now, if... But if the current leader's son, Moshtaba Khomeini, were to become the new Ayatollah, then things would stay the same. And the..."
"And so they caused an accident. Okay? Does it make sense, guys? All right? So again, I don't know what happened. But if we..."
"And the third thing is, of course, foreign policy. Meaning that the Axis of Resistance gets... Sorry, the Axis of Resistance only interacts with..."
"He even knows the names of their children. So the current Ayatollah Khomeini has a great personal relationship with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps...."
A source-grounded reading of the lecture's central move: the crash was probably an accident, but if it was not, Jiang asks who had opportunity, motive, and the most to gain.
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