prediction
Jiang forecasts near-term current-event topics for the post-break course: America about to attack Iran, moves on Greenland and Canada, and Trump visiting China in April.
Topic brief
A Jiang Lens evidence brief for this topic, built from source tags, transcript matches, and linked source refs.
Current Events
The class will use current events not to moralize that events are stupid or wrong, but to explain why they happen and what they lead to.
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Key Notes
model
The class will use current events not to moralize that events are stupid or wrong, but to explain why they happen and what they lead to.
prediction
Jiang plans a second-semester geopolitics course that analyzes current events, explains why they are happening, and predicts what will happen.
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diagnosis
Jiang identifies Ukraine, the Middle East, and the United States against the world as the three major conflicts framing the 2025 semester.
model
Jiang's method for the lecture is to treat Raisi's death as a current-event analysis problem: information is sparse, may be false, and may be filtered through an official narrative, so game-theory reasoning is needed to explore possibilities.
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Timestamped Evidence
Transcript
"...apply it to the modern world so we look at specific current events so during the break i want you guys to focus on..."
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"...uh during a break uh please focus on keeping up with current events all right okay guys all right see you after the break"
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"...And so we will be in this class studying and analyzing current events to understand how the world really works, why people behave the..."
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"And this requires you to actually follow the news, okay? It's not hard to spend five minutes and just read up on the news...."
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"...geopolitics. So what I'll be doing is I'll be looking at current events trying to analyze why these events are happening and making predictions..."
Transcript
"...to predict the future. Okay, so if you have been following current events, and I hope you have, there are now three major conflicts..."
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"war in Ukraine, it is still happening, and it's affecting everything and everyone because obviously, it brings a lot of instability and uncertainty in..."
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"There are these geopolitical factors, as I've discussed, but there are also these religious factors that we looked into a bit last semester, but..."
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"...so when you do history or when you do analysis about current events, you're always going to encounter three major problems, okay? The first..."
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"...extreme aspects. But if you want to understand history, you understand current events and geopolitics, you need to understand these extremists because it's often..."
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"...throughout the semester, okay? We'll go and we'll apply it to current events to explain why this is happening. Any questions? Okay."
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"...Theory and Geopolitics. So what we'll be doing is looking at current events and using Game Theory to understand how and why they're happening,..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
Reading
A source-grounded reading of Jiang's lecture on the false capitalism-communism dialectic: communism appears not as capitalism's opposite but as a weapon that clears away monarchy, religion, nationalism, democracy, and social democracy so capital can...
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Game theory begins with a small dating game and ends with a civilizational forecast: when status becomes the prize, love, fertility, policy, and geopolitics all bend around the same zero-sum structure.
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Jiang explains the channel from the inside: a teacher leaving Beijing, watching Iran and Israel move toward world war, and trying to turn a student review archive into a new history that can explain...
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History is not a cycle, and it is not a line moving politely toward truth.
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A source-grounded reading of the lecture's central move: the crash was probably an accident, but if it was not, Jiang asks who had opportunity, motive, and the most to gain.
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Related Topics
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