The Oceanic Currents Of History

The semester begins in the present. Ukraine is still grinding through death, inflation, inconvenience, and instability. The Middle East is more dangerous because Israel, Iran, oil, East Asian energy supply, and the Strait of Hormuz Source trail 4:04 cut off, then the Chinese economy, the South Korean economy, the Japanese Basically, all of East Asia faces economic collapse and catastrophe, okay? But second is, if you look at a map, Iran is really the center of the... connect one regional war to the world economy. If the United States attacks Iran, Jiang says Russia and China must intervene in some capacity.

The third conflict is stranger: the United States against the world. Pax Americana Source trail 5:176:35 There are these geopolitical factors, as I've discussed, but there are also these religious factors that we looked into a bit last semester, but I will explain more this semester, okay? And then the third and final conf...China would not have grown as fast as China did without the Pax Americana. It is American ships, American warships, that allow Chinese ships to sail safely around the world, to deliver goods around the world. But this u... let trade happen and helped China grow, but the same unipolar moment also gave the United States the power to invade, destroy, sanction, and bully. The peace is real, and so is the resentment it produces.

That is why the lecture needs a model. If history is any good, it should not merely decorate the past. It should explain why the present is happening and help predict what will happen next. Source trail 8:0124:4226:10 Canada, Mexico, quite possibly, very quickly, the European Union, and the United States is already at economic war with Russia and China, okay? So we will go, this semester, we will also discuss this semester why this i...Okay? It's a much more complicated model than these two models. But I think it is much more useful in helping us predict the causes of historical development. Okay? I want to argue why these two models don't really work...

The cycle feels natural because life, seasons, and dynasties rise and fall. Chinese history becomes mandate, corruption, rebellion, and new dynasty. Greek and Roman politics become people, nobility, and king forming and breaking alliances: oligarchy creates debt, a king clears debts, monarchy decays, democracy rises, and wealth captures votes again. Source trail 9:2410:2712:0913:2314:2415:27 And in the past, there have been two main models for understanding historical development. Okay, so the first is the idea of a cycle or a circle. And this makes sense, right? Because this mirrors what we experience in l...time, for a variety of reasons, because of corruption, because there's a bad emperor, they lose the mandate of heaven, which allows a rebellion, which then creates a new dynasty. So Chinese history is almost a continuou...

The line tells another story: history moves toward truth. The Bible moves toward David, Virgil toward Pax Romana, Fukuyama toward liberal consumer democracy, Christians toward the second coming, and Hegel toward truth through dialectical conflict. Each version gives history an end. Source trail 16:2117:0318:2519:3122:0523:18 his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history four years his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history so that's idea of a cycle right we also have so that...on us in a useless cycle it is moving towards a truth is moving towards a good end okay so then this idea has been around for a very long time remember in the Bible but when King David first sponsored rhyme a Bible the...

The problem is that both models are too satisfied with shape. Jiang wants a model that explains and predicts. A truth that cannot tell us why World War II started beyond evil, or why Trump, Ukraine, and the Middle East are moving the way they are, is not enough. Source trail 24:4226:10 Okay? It's a much more complicated model than these two models. But I think it is much more useful in helping us predict the causes of historical development. Okay? I want to argue why these two models don't really work...And for me, this is frustrating because if the history is any good, if the history is accurate, then it should help us predict the future. Or at least better understand the present. Okay? So the idea of truth. What is t...

The most dangerous form of the line is not academic. Millions of Christian Zionists, he says, want war in the Middle East because they believe apocalyptic crisis will force Jesus to return. Crazy ideas make crazy events Source trail 20:50 is that this idea, it sounds like a simple idea, but this idea is what's driving a lot of the conflict in the Middle East. Believe it or not, but there are millions of Christians, they're called Christian Zionists by th... .

The oceanic model removes moral judgment. It asks less whether a movement is good or bad than how it starts, why it moves, and where it is going. The world is a huge ocean with ecosystems and currents Lens point borderland-engine The borderland engine is an oceanic-current mechanism: empire-margin contact transfers energy outward until an isolated edge can expand, collide with the center, and become a hurricane that runs until it is defeated, absorbed, becomes empire, or exhausts itself. Source trail 27:15 And it helps us also predict what will happen. Okay? And this model is what I call the oceanic currents of history. Imagine the world as a huge ocean. And within each ocean, there's an ecosystem, which has currents. And... ; when those currents collide, new development appears.

Culture is the deep layer. It is meta-reality, the understanding from which other understandings derive. Gender, race, ethnicity, and class matter less than the cultural world that tells a person how to make friends, work with a boss, raise children, and know what counts as success. Source trail 28:3129:5530:58 What I want to show you is the world is divided into cultural ecosystems. Cultural ecosystems. This is a really important idea you need to know for the rest of the semester. What I will argue is that culture is the meta...All right? Now, in 2,000 years, China has changed a lot. Right? We now have the Internet. We have computers. We have cell phones. We have skyscrapers. We have cars. We have roads. Okay? So China has changed a lot in the...

That is why the map is made of cultural ecosystems: Europe, the Levant and Middle East, the steppes, China, India. Geography, history, and demographics produce a cultural orientation. The rest of the lecture asks what happens when those ecosystems interact. Source trail 32:0933:27 This thought experiment, I hope, shows you the persistence of culture. It's the most important part of who you are. It drives everything else. It drives how you see the world. It drives how you interact with others. Oka...And then you have the steppes. Okay? So remember the steppes are this grassland, this ocean of grassland that basically extends from Hungary to Mongolia. Okay? And then you have China, India. Okay? So there are these di...

The pattern begins with empire meeting borderland. Mongolia is the borderland of China. Arabia is the borderland of Byzantine and Sassanian power. At first the relation is symbiotic: trade, military cooperation, and raiding. The empire needs borderland soldiers because borderland life is harder and more warlike. Source trail 33:2735:1336:36 And then you have the steppes. Okay? So remember the steppes are this grassland, this ocean of grassland that basically extends from Hungary to Mongolia. Okay? And then you have China, India. Okay? So there are these di...How were the Mongolians and the Manchus able to conquer the Chinese Empire? All right? And what I will show you this semester is when this happens, when an empire is conquered, the pattern is the same. There's a consist...

Then the empire adds fuel. Wealth, knowledge, information, population, and military sophistication flow outward. The borderland becomes richer and more crowded. Internal conflict rises. Expansion becomes the way to release pressure. Sometimes the borderland conquers the empire and becomes the new empire. Source trail 37:4739:05 The north mid. So these are all isolated parts. But as the empire expands, they start to interact with these isolated ecosystems. And when they interact, what happens is these borderlands become energized. Okay? It's li...They're like the stuff of legend and myth. When the empire expands, it energizes these borderlands. The energy makes these borderlands more wealthy, more populated, and more militarily sophisticated. That creates confli...

That is the historical reversal Jiang wants students to see. The edge is not empty. It is the future center under pressure. The Mongols, Manchus, Arabians, Greeks, Vikings, and northern peoples do not come from nowhere; they come from borderlands that empire helped energize. Source trail 37:4739:0556:0559:10 The north mid. So these are all isolated parts. But as the empire expands, they start to interact with these isolated ecosystems. And when they interact, what happens is these borderlands become energized. Okay? It's li...They're like the stuff of legend and myth. When the empire expands, it energizes these borderlands. The energy makes these borderlands more wealthy, more populated, and more militarily sophisticated. That creates confli...

All societies meet three boundary conditions. Financialism comes first. Productive work builds farms, factories, restaurants, and real wealth. Then capital discovers that lending, monopoly, rents, stocks, real estate, and assets pay better than making things. The society stops producing value. Source trail 40:0841:3943:0044:32 How is it possible for the borderlands, which, again, is only a fraction of the wealth, the population and the resources of the empire, how were they able to conquer the empire? And this is a really important lesson you...I'm creating wealth for the society. Right? You can also do that by building a factory. But over time, what happens is you eventually realize that it's more profitable for you to lend money than to build things. Does th...

War then becomes the reset. When financialism has hollowed out production, destruction forces rebuilding. The sentence is brutal because it is not a moral defense of war. It is a claim about why societies keep using war to restart dead economies. Source trail 45:4446:56 And when you're in this situation, what are you forced to do now? If you're a society and you want to continue, what are you forced to do? See me? No. What do you do? Historically, what have societies done in order to g...Right now in the West, it's the same thing as well. And at that point, you have no choice but to start a war to reset your society. Or your society will continue to decline. So the first boundary condition, war societie...

Rat utopia names the second condition: abundance without status pathways breaks social order. The mountaintop image is the key. Everyone is waiting to climb, but the people at the top do not fall off. The line turns angry. Young people stop working, marrying, and having children because what they want is not only money. They want status. Source trail 46:5648:0749:1650:2051:08 Right now in the West, it's the same thing as well. And at that point, you have no choice but to start a war to reset your society. Or your society will continue to decline. So the first boundary condition, war societie...And the male rat starts to chase the female rat. The female rat runs back into her burrow, her home, and hides. The male rat has to stand outside and wait for the female rat to come out. When she comes out, she will sta...

Elite overproduction is the same crisis among the haves. Too many elite children chase too few elite positions. The poor can fight each other in line; elites can fight with institutions, money, armies, and factions. That is why revolutions often come from lower nobility fighting upper nobility, not simply from poor people overthrowing rich people. Source trail 52:1853:28 Okay? Does that make sense? Any questions before I continue? Are you guys clear about this? And the third boundary condition is the idea of elite overproduction. What is elite overproduction? Well, it's the same as radi...This creates civil war. In fact, if you are to look at America today, you can say there's a civil war going on between two different factions of the elite. Okay? Does that make sense? And this is what drives a lot of hi...

When the center rots, most people in the empire do not want to live there. They are debtors, landless, and trapped. Elites steal more through rent seeking. Civil conflict grows. The army is made of the same resentful people, so the empire imports borderland fighters to solve its own internal crisis. Source trail 53:2854:51 This creates civil war. In fact, if you are to look at America today, you can say there's a civil war going on between two different factions of the elite. Okay? Does that make sense? And this is what drives a lot of hi...human history, empires that have persisted for the longest have this huge problem where the majority of the population suffers from too much debt and suffers from too much landlessness. No opportunities. Okay? Then what...

That fix becomes the takeover. You hire foreign mercenaries because you cannot trust your own army; then the mercenaries replace the army; then the mercenaries take the empire. Rome is not an exception. It is an example of the pattern. Source trail 54:5156:05 human history, empires that have persisted for the longest have this huge problem where the majority of the population suffers from too much debt and suffers from too much landlessness. No opportunities. Okay? Then what...You hire foreign mercenaries. Right? That's what China does. Or that's what China did in its history. You can't trust your own army, so you hire foreign mercenaries. And eventually what happens is you replace your army...

The borderland wins because civilization is a misleading measure. Cities, writing, math, and wealth do not tell you who wins in war. Borderland cultures teach freedom, egalitarianism, independence, and self-reliance. Viking children learn boats, hunting, fighting, horses, and survival while civilized children learn test questions. Source trail 56:0557:5059:10 You hire foreign mercenaries. Right? That's what China does. Or that's what China did in its history. You can't trust your own army, so you hire foreign mercenaries. And eventually what happens is you replace your army...That makes no sense to you. Right? So what I'm trying to say, what I'm trying to tell you is this is a wrong way of looking at it. A better way of looking at it is culture. In the borderlands, there's a certain culture...

Now the metaphor hardens. When borderland energy becomes too intense, it becomes a hurricane. The hurricane rides through history. Sometimes it loses; sometimes Greeks, Vikings, Mongols, Arabians, or other borderland peoples win. When they win, they destroy. Source trail 59:101:00:32 three, their kids were learning how to swim, how to row boats, how to cook, how to hunt, how to fight, how to ride horses. Does that make sense? And what are civilized kids doing? They're learning how to do test questio...And when they win, they create a lot of destruction. Okay? And that's the idea I want you to implant in your head. These are currents. These are natural forces that are unstoppable. Once they start, you cannot stop them...

The frightening claim is that Ukraine is a hurricane that will engulf Europe, and the Middle East is a hurricane that will engulf the world. Nothing will be the same because the currents destroy what they pass through. This is not diplomacy as failure of will. It is history as natural force. Source trail 1:00:321:01:39 And when they win, they create a lot of destruction. Okay? And that's the idea I want you to implant in your head. These are currents. These are natural forces that are unstoppable. Once they start, you cannot stop them...And I will also show you how this connects to current events. And then, once we do that, we should be able to predict current events. And just to let you know, spoiler alert, things will not end well. Okay? We are looki...

A student asks what starts these hurricanes. The answer is that they do not really start. Currents are always moving. Once an empire exists, it is already energizing some borderland. Prediction means finding where hurricanes are forming before they arrive. Source trail 1:01:391:03:04 And I will also show you how this connects to current events. And then, once we do that, we should be able to predict current events. And just to let you know, spoiler alert, things will not end well. Okay? We are looki...Okay. What starts these hurricanes? Or what starts this process? All right. So, if you look at an ocean, you will discover that these currents are happening all the time. You understand? There's no start. They're always...

The forming hurricanes are named directly. East Asia will eventually have conflict, but Jiang does not think it will be a simple United States-China fight over Taiwan; he expects Japan and South Korea to be involved. America itself is a hurricane, with civil-war pressure accelerating around a contested 2028 election. The biggest and scariest hurricane is Iran, because a U.S.-Iran conflict would drag in the whole world. Source trail 1:03:041:04:111:05:09 Okay. What starts these hurricanes? Or what starts this process? All right. So, if you look at an ocean, you will discover that these currents are happening all the time. You understand? There's no start. They're always...All right? Now, a lot of people are saying the conflict will be between China and the U.S. I do not think that's the case. I do not think the conflict will be between the United States and China. I think it will involve...

The Viking example closes the mechanism. Vikings expand to Greenland, Iceland, North America, Normandy, Ukraine, Rus, Russia, England, and Britain not because they lack resources, but because wealth, power, and too few status positions make expansion necessary. Empire building is status overflow. Source trail 1:05:091:06:301:07:241:08:411:09:55 And there's a very good chance Trump will run again in 2028. Okay? But I, but I think these are two big hurricanes that are coming along the way. Not now, but they're coming along along the way. The big scary hurricane,...The Vikings, which we'll discuss a lot, they're in Northern Europe. And for most of human history, we had actually no idea they were there. Okay? They were in the north in Denmark, in Norway, in Sweden. And they basical...