{ "generated_by": "Generated by ops/scripts/compile-content.mjs. Do not edit by hand.", "generated_at": "deterministic", "slug": "predictive-history-voqeteh6hko", "id": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko", "source_class": "episode", "collection": "episodes", "title": "Civilization BONUS: Meet Professor Jiang", "source_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=voQEteh6Hko", "video_id": "voQEteh6Hko", "embed_url": "https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/voQEteh6Hko", "published_at": "2025-06-13", "recorded_at": null, "date_precision": "day", "date_label": "2025-06-13, day precision", "chronology_status": "dated", "channel": { "id": "UC11aHtNnc5bEPLI4jf6mnYg", "handle": "@PredictiveHistory", "title": "Predictive History", "url": "https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC11aHtNnc5bEPLI4jf6mnYg" }, "path_base": "/episodes", "path": "/episodes/predictive-history-voqeteh6hko/", "transcript_path": "/episodes/predictive-history-voqeteh6hko/transcript/", "data_url": "/data/lens/episodes/predictive-history-voqeteh6hko.json", "counts": { "semantic_passes": 2, "interactions": 9, "speaker_notes": 2, "claims": 13, "signature_moments": 8, "predictions": 3, "models": 2, "glossary_terms": 6, "chronology_notes": 4, "uncertainty_notes": 2, "glossary_candidates": 6, "transcript_segments": 12, "transcript_words": 1836, "duration_seconds": 748.65, "duration_label": "12:28" }, "paths": { "source": "content/sources/videos/predictive-history-voqeteh6hko/source.yaml", "transcript": "content/sources/videos/predictive-history-voqeteh6hko/transcripts/v1/transcript.clean.jsonl", "semantic_bundle": "content/lens/evidence/videos/predictive-history-voqeteh6hko.semantic.json", "semantic_passes": [ "content/workflow/proposals/predictive-history-voqeteh6hko/packet-0001.semantic.json", "content/workflow/proposals/predictive-history-voqeteh6hko/packet-0002.semantic.json" ], "read": "content/lens/episodes/predictive-history-voqeteh6hko/read.json" }, "read": { "id": "episode-read:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko:v1", "kind": "episode-read", "schema_version": 2, "source_id": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko", "slug": "predictive-history-voqeteh6hko", "title": "Predictive History Begins As A School", "subtitle": "A cleaned reading of Civilization BONUS", "read_time": "5 min", "editorial_mode": "distilled-direct-address", "voice_policy": "Direct argumentative prose derived from the source. 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But the source also keeps the project human. Jiang is worried about blood pressure, children, comments he cannot answer, weak points in philosophy and economics, and whether the next version of the course can make the hidden structures of history more visible.", "opening": { "heading": "Core Reading", "text": "The source begins at a threshold. Jiang is leaving Beijing for Toronto with his sons, checking his health, and then seeing the news that Israel is attacking Iran. The world-war line he had forecast now looks too fast even for him. That is the pressure behind the self-introduction: predictive history is not a brand name. It is a project born from the need to make history usable when events are accelerating. 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So this is really the first time that I've had a chance to talk directly to you guys. So let me tell you about myself, why I'm teaching this course, and what my plans are for the future of this class. So I was born in China in 1976. But when I was six, my family and I immigrated to Toronto, Canada. And my family was poor, but I worked really hard and I got a full scholarship to go to Yale University. And I was really thankful to my teachers and the opportunity to empower myself for education. So after I graduated from Yale with a degree in English Literature, I returned to China and I've been ever since working in education. Doing everything I could possibly do. I'm doing everything I could possibly do. 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I've obviously worked as an English teacher, but I've also worked as a principal, curriculum director, a teacher trainer. I've worked in all levels of education in China. Kindergarten, primary school, junior high, high school, university as well. Three years ago, I got hired at this school that I'm at now, a private school in Beijing, that helps students go abroad. And I first came in actually as a curriculum director, overseeing the humanities curriculum at the school, which is what I specialize in. But the school needed teachers because of COVID. It was really hard to recruit teachers back then. So I was teaching AP English and it was my first time teaching advanced placement English. I really didn't know what I was doing. So I just thought that we would just read a lot of books. So the kids and I, we read Julius Caesar. 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So in the second year, I built a great books program at the school. And again, it was extremely successful. We read the Iliad, the Odyssey, the Iliad, the Bible, the Divine Comedy, and the kids loved it. But while teaching it, I recognized there's a problem. And the problem was the kids. The kids, being Chinese, had absolutely no historical context to work with. So this year, I started to develop a new program, which is the program that you've been experiencing for the last 60 classes. My goal this year was to teach the entirety of human history from the Ice Age up until the American Empire, which is what I taught yesterday. And again, it's been great for me. It's been great for me. It's been great for the kids. 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And over the course of teaching this course, I've decided that I want to create a new intellectual movement, a new sort of history. I call it predictive history. The idea is that in the future, I hope that history is able to accomplish three major goals. The first goal is to connect events of the past into a coherent story. Second is to help us understand, explain the present. And the third goal is to be able to predict the future. And I think that if what we teach accomplishes all three goals, then it must be true history. And I think if we have true history, then we, humanity, the world, can better organize, can better think. Can better control our future. And that's my ambition. 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And one of my favorite series was the Foundation series. And in it, Isaac Asimov proposed the idea of psychohistory, which is the idea that we can mathematically model the present and the past. So as to predict the future. And that, I think, will be my future ambition moving forward. I want to build intellectual foundations for the possibility of psychohistory. And that's my long -term thinking. So about this course. So I initially uploaded the classes so that my students can review the lectures because these are Chinese students, and their English is not that great. And there were a couple hundred subscribers initially, and everyone was fantastic. 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My channel just blew up. I went from like 300 subscribers at the beginning of May. To about 25,000 as we speak right now, and it's constantly growing. And the feedback has been overwhelmingly positive. So thank you so much for subscribing, for liking, for commenting. I try to read every comment, but as you can imagine, there's just so many comments. And I would like to respond to every one of them. But again, there's so much going on in my life. I have three young kids that I have to take care of. I have to take care of them with my wife. I also have to prep for classes. And because I have three young kids, I've been sick a lot. It's allergy season in China, COVID is still going strong. So I'm just trying my best right now to take care of my kids. So my apologies if I don't respond.", "word_count": 162, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-001", "start": 400.079, "end": 403.01, "text": "This past month, something odd happened.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-002", "start": 403.41, "end": 404.83, "text": "My channel just blew up.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-003", "start": 404.95, "end": 409.75, "text": "I went from like 300 subscribers at the beginning of May.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-004", "start": 409.75, "end": 414.29, "text": "To about 25,000 as we speak right now,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-005", "start": 414.41, "end": 415.41, "text": "and it's constantly growing.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-006", "start": 415.75, "end": 419.69, "text": "And the feedback has been overwhelmingly positive.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-007", "start": 420.05, "end": 422.51, "text": "So thank you so much for subscribing,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-008", "start": 422.85, "end": 424.49, "text": "for liking, for commenting.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-009", "start": 425.01, "end": 426.69, "text": "I try to read every comment,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-010", "start": 426.85, "end": 428.01, "text": "but as you can imagine,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-011", "start": 428.37, "end": 430.65, "text": "there's just so many comments.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-012", "start": 430.91, "end": 432.93, "text": "And I would like to respond to every one of them.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-013", "start": 433.13, "end": 437.11, "text": "But again, there's so much going on in my life.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-014", "start": 437.19, "end": 439.73, "text": "I have three young kids that I have to take care of.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-015", "start": 439.73, "end": 441.37, "text": "I have to take care of them with my wife.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-016", "start": 442.47, "end": 444.27, "text": "I also have to prep for classes.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-017", "start": 444.77, "end": 446.25, "text": "And because I have three young kids,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-018", "start": 446.49, "end": 447.45, "text": "I've been sick a lot.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-019", "start": 447.85, "end": 450.59, "text": "It's allergy season in China,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-020", "start": 450.83, "end": 452.27, "text": "COVID is still going strong.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-021", "start": 452.77, "end": 459.57, "text": "So I'm just trying my best right now to take care of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-022", "start": 459.57, "end": 460.07, "text": "my kids.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-023", "start": 460.41, "end": 462.09, "text": "So my apologies if", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-024", "start": 462.09, "end": 462.65, "text": "I don't respond.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "d5905542daeb8f212d5f09d34d1457ca7131cd677bfae6b331d2b6dc8741ae6b", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-voqeteh6hko/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-voqeteh6hko/transcript/#seg-0007", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=voQEteh6Hko&t=400s", "time_label": "6:40", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0008", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "start": 463.65, "end": 525.91, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "I will try to respond over the summer. But again, I'm so thankful for all the support. Thank you. All the positive feedback that I've received recently. So I finished teaching the course yesterday, 60 classes covering the entire span of human history. And a lot of you are curious as to what the plans are moving forward. Well, tomorrow I'm going back to Toronto to rest, recuperate, relax. The summer is also a really good time for me to reflect on what I've taught and how I've improved the course. I will also be doing a lot of reading. Some of you have suggested anything I've taught, which I will go into deeply this summer. I will also look at Oswald Spangler very carefully. Some of you have commented that I'm very weak in terms of philosophy. Marx, Hegel, Kant are pretty weak. I'm pretty weak at. And I admit that. 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I want this to be like Plato's Academy. I want this to be like the Jedi Temple where I'm training the intellectual Jedi's of the future. These will be the future intellectuals, the future writers, the future historians of humanity. And I hope that we together when we build this community will be able to lead humanity forward and that's really what I want to do. My ambition. So again thank you so much for watching my lectures. I'm really thankful. Some of your comments have really made a deep impression on me and they're gonna really help me improve the course for next year. So I promise you that I will offer a much more lean, much more clean, much more enjoyable viewing experience in St. Athos. 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I'm going to engage in the process of deep reflection and deep learning, deep reading this summer so that in September, in the fall, I can deliver the best quality content I can to everyone. Because I'm so grateful. Thank you. to everyone for watching okay well that's it for me for me enjoy your summer and I will see you in mid -august", "word_count": 68, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-001", "start": 716.85, "end": 719.81, "text": "So enjoy your summer.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-002", "start": 720.99, "end": 724.93, "text": "I'm going to engage in the process of deep reflection and deep", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-003", "start": 724.93, "end": 728.67, "text": "learning, deep reading this summer so that in September,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-004", "start": 728.95, "end": 733.81, "text": "in the fall, I can deliver the best quality content I can", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-005", "start": 733.81, "end": 734.61, "text": "to everyone.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-006", "start": 735.13, "end": 736.41, "text": "Because I'm so grateful.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-007", "start": 736.43, "end": 736.61, "text": "Thank you.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-008", "start": 736.63, "end": 743.27, "text": "to everyone for watching okay well that's it for me for me", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-009", "start": 743.27, "end": 748.65, "text": "enjoy your summer and I will see you in mid -august", "word_count": 11 } ], "text_sha256": "78b0b04d806f4c151ded2ae1f78606662e0fdaa2eb94e18adcc5f23e6d23188f", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-voqeteh6hko/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-voqeteh6hko/transcript/#seg-0012", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=voQEteh6Hko&t=716s", "time_label": "11:56", "tags": [ "monologue" ] } ], "interactions": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0002" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang opens from a personal threshold: he is leaving Beijing for Toronto with his sons, has just checked his health, then sees Israel attacking Iran and says the World War III trajectory he predicted appears to be accelerating faster than he imagined.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang direct-to-camera monologue.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.46, "end": 83.73, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Hi YouTube, this is Professor Jiang. 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Becaus..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "speaker_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "note": "Single-speaker direct-to-camera address; diarized SPEAKER_00 appears to be Jiang throughout.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.46, "end": 83.73, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Hi YouTube, this is Professor Jiang. Today is my last day in Beijing. Tomorrow morning I board a flight with my two boys for Toronto, Canada. That's where I was, that's where I grew up. 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So what I'll be doing is I'll be looking at current events trying to analyze why these events are happening and making predictions about..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 646.65, "end": 716.53, "time_label": "10:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I want this school to be the best ever. I want this to be like Plato's Academy. I want this to be like the Jedi Temple where I'm training the intellectual Jedi's of the future. 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My parents are there, so it's rea..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Chinese students' lack of historical context while reading great books becomes the immediate pedagogical problem that leads Jiang to build a year-long human-history course.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "temporal_scope": "Course-origin explanation as of 2025-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "great-books", "historical-context", "curriculum" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 145.45, "end": 208.86, "time_label": "2:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And I've worked various capacities. I've obviously worked as an English teacher, but I've also worked as a principal, curriculum director, a teacher trainer. I've worked in all levels of education in China. Kindergarten..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 208.92, "end": 267.76, "time_label": "3:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And I loved teaching it. So in the second year, I built a great books program at the school. And again, it was extremely successful. We read the Iliad, the Odyssey, the Iliad, the Bible, the Divine Comedy, and the kids..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang identifies philosophy and classical economics as weak points in his analysis and says he will use the summer to study them more deeply.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0009" ], "temporal_scope": "Self-assessment and summer plan stated on 2025-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "philosophy", "economics", "self-critique", "study" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 526.53, "end": 588.23, "time_label": "8:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I will also need to study economics in depth, as well. So Adam Smith and other economists, because that really right now is the weak point in my analysis. I don't have enough classical economics in my background to full..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "other_claims": [ { "claim": "He presents his biography as an education-reform arc: immigrant childhood in Toronto, Yale English literature, return to China, and work across kindergarten, primary, secondary, university, and school-leadership roles.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "temporal_scope": "Autobiographical account given on 2025-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "biography", "education", "china", "yale" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 83.75, "end": 145.35, "time_label": "1:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "that things turn out for the best, but also preparing for the worst. So this is really the first time that I've had a chance to talk directly to you guys. So let me tell you about myself, why I'm teaching this course, a..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 145.45, "end": 208.86, "time_label": "2:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And I've worked various capacities. I've obviously worked as an English teacher, but I've also worked as a principal, curriculum director, a teacher trainer. I've worked in all levels of education in China. Kindergarten..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang defines predictive history as true history only if it connects past events into a coherent story, explains the present, and predicts the future.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "temporal_scope": "Program definition stated on 2025-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "predictive-history", "history", "method", "future" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 269.28, "end": 331.19, "time_label": "4:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Specifically, it's given me an opportunity to think about the possibilities of history. And over the course of teaching this course, I've decided that I want to create a new intellectual movement, a new sort of history...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says true history would help humanity better organize, better think, and better control its future.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "temporal_scope": "Normative ambition stated on 2025-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "predictive-history", "humanity", "future-control" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 269.28, "end": 331.19, "time_label": "4:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Specifically, it's given me an opportunity to think about the possibilities of history. And over the course of teaching this course, I've decided that I want to create a new intellectual movement, a new sort of history...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The YouTube channel began as a review aid for Chinese students but rapidly became a global audience after growing from roughly 300 subscribers at the beginning of May to about 25,000 by this recording.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0007" ], "temporal_scope": "Channel history as of 2025-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "youtube", "audience", "course" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 331.51, "end": 400.079, "time_label": "5:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "As a young boy growing up in Toronto, Canada, I didn't have that many friends, but I read a lot of books. And one of my favorite series was the Foundation series. And in it, Isaac Asimov proposed the idea of psychohisto..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 400.079, "end": 462.65, "time_label": "6:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "This past month, something odd happened. My channel just blew up. I went from like 300 subscribers at the beginning of May. To about 25,000 as we speak right now, and it's constantly growing. And the feedback has been o..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang imagines the school as a Plato's Academy or Jedi Temple for training future intellectuals, writers, and historians who can help lead humanity forward.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "temporal_scope": "Institutional vision stated on 2025-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "platos-academy", "jedi-temple", "intellectuals", "humanity" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 646.65, "end": 716.53, "time_label": "10:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I want this school to be the best ever. I want this to be like Plato's Academy. I want this to be like the Jedi Temple where I'm training the intellectual Jedi's of the future. These will be the future intellectuals, th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "glossary_terms": [ { "term": "geopolitics course", "usages": [ "The planned second-semester course applying Jiang's method to current events, causes, and predictions." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 588.75, "end": 646.63, "time_label": "9:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The second semester, I'll be teaching a new iteration of this course. geopolitics. So what I'll be doing is I'll be looking at current events trying to analyze why these events are happening and making predictions about..." } ] }, { "term": "Jedi Temple", "usages": [ "Jiang's pop-cultural analogy for training future intellectuals, writers, and historians as guardians of humanity's future." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 646.65, "end": 716.53, "time_label": "10:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I want this school to be the best ever. I want this to be like Plato's Academy. I want this to be like the Jedi Temple where I'm training the intellectual Jedi's of the future. These will be the future intellectuals, th..." } ] }, { "term": "Plato's Academy", "usages": [ "Jiang's analogy for the kind of school he wants to build: an elite intellectual formation site." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 646.65, "end": 716.53, "time_label": "10:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I want this school to be the best ever. I want this to be like Plato's Academy. I want this to be like the Jedi Temple where I'm training the intellectual Jedi's of the future. These will be the future intellectuals, th..." } ] }, { "term": "predictive history", "usages": [ "Jiang's proposed new history: connect past events into coherent story, explain the present, and predict the future." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 269.28, "end": 331.19, "time_label": "4:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Specifically, it's given me an opportunity to think about the possibilities of history. And over the course of teaching this course, I've decided that I want to create a new intellectual movement, a new sort of history...." } ] }, { "term": "psychohistory", "usages": [ "An Asimov-inspired ambition to mathematically model the past and present in order to predict the future." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 331.51, "end": 400.079, "time_label": "5:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "As a young boy growing up in Toronto, Canada, I didn't have that many friends, but I read a lot of books. And one of my favorite series was the Foundation series. And in it, Isaac Asimov proposed the idea of psychohisto..." } ] }, { "term": "true history", "usages": [ "Jiang's name for history that succeeds at story, present explanation, and future prediction." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 269.28, "end": 331.19, "time_label": "4:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Specifically, it's given me an opportunity to think about the possibilities of history. And over the course of teaching this course, I've decided that I want to create a new intellectual movement, a new sort of history...." } ] } ], "chronology_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0001" ], "note": "The Iran/Israel and World War III statement is explicitly dated to 2025-06-13 and references earlier videos without naming them; treat it as a dated update, not a timeless forecast.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": true, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.46, "end": 83.73, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Hi YouTube, this is Professor Jiang. Today is my last day in Beijing. Tomorrow morning I board a flight with my two boys for Toronto, Canada. That's where I was, that's where I grew up. My parents are there, so it's rea..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0007" ], "note": "Jiang dates the subscriber jump to the past month and says the channel grew from about 300 subscribers at the beginning of May to about 25,000 by 2025-06-13.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 400.079, "end": 462.65, "time_label": "6:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "This past month, something odd happened. My channel just blew up. I went from like 300 subscribers at the beginning of May. To about 25,000 as we speak right now, and it's constantly growing. And the feedback has been o..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "note": "The course plan is time-bound: summer 2025 for study and revision, mid-August 2025 for return to Beijing, fall for the 30-class course, and February for the geopolitics course.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 526.53, "end": 588.23, "time_label": "8:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I will also need to study economics in depth, as well. So Adam Smith and other economists, because that really right now is the weak point in my analysis. I don't have enough classical economics in my background to full..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 588.75, "end": 646.63, "time_label": "9:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The second semester, I'll be teaching a new iteration of this course. geopolitics. So what I'll be doing is I'll be looking at current events trying to analyze why these events are happening and making predictions about..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "note": "Jiang closes by saying he will see viewers in mid-August, reinforcing this as a summer-break planning source rather than a normal lecture.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 716.85, "end": 748.65, "time_label": "11:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So enjoy your summer. I'm going to engage in the process of deep reflection and deep learning, deep reading this summer so that in September, in the fall, I can deliver the best quality content I can to everyone. Becaus..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "uncertainty_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "note": "The transcript phrase 'Some of you have suggested anything I've taught' is likely ASR damage; semantic extraction only preserves the clear point that he plans summer reading and reflection.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 463.65, "end": 525.91, "time_label": "7:43", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I will try to respond over the summer. But again, I'm so thankful for all the support. Thank you. All the positive feedback that I've received recently. So I finished teaching the course yesterday, 60 classes covering t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "note": "The transcript phrase 'St. Athos' appears to be ASR damage in the promise of a cleaner viewing experience; semantic extraction does not depend on the phrase.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 646.65, "end": 716.53, "time_label": "10:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I want this school to be the best ever. I want this to be like Plato's Academy. I want this to be like the Jedi Temple where I'm training the intellectual Jedi's of the future. These will be the future intellectuals, th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ] }