Ukraine

He reiterates that the Iran war should be understood as a response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and to a tightening Russia-China-Iran alignment.

Jiang predicts that Russia will focus military expansion on Ukraine, the Baltic states, and Central Asia, and that this outward conquest can preserve Russian cohesion if Russia keeps fighting.

Jiang argues that Xi's stated opposition to unilateral attacks logically makes Russia's attack on Ukraine unjustifiable too, which reveals that the China-Russia partnership is less unified than it appears on the surface.

Jiang states that Kim Jong-un has strongly backed Russia's war in Ukraine and says North Korea sent 10,000 troops, whose importance lies in their willingness to fight to the end even if they begin poorly trained or undisciplined.

Jiang links Europe's immigration stress and the Ukraine war to the rise of Germany's AfD, which he describes as anti-immigration and anti-war in Ukraine and therefore positioned to gain power as social tension rises.

Jiang argues that Russia has not yet fully shifted into total war because military spending remains moderate as a share of GDP and Putin still frames Ukraine as a special military operation rather than a formal war, leaving room for a later surge in mobilization.

Jiang says support for Putin rose across the Global South after the Ukraine war because many non-Western audiences interpret Russia not as an imperial aggressor but as a state resisting Western bullying and NATO encroachment.

Jiang says the two decisive battlefronts of what he calls World War III are Ukraine, framed as Europe versus Russia, and Iran, framed as the United States versus Iran, with Israel functioning as America's fortress for containing Russian influence in the region.