Game theory

A way of explaining history by asking what game the actors are playing, what their incentives are, and how the game changes across civilizational stages.

A method for analyzing behavior through players, rules or boundary conditions, and incentives.

Used by Jiang as incentive analysis: what could America afford to risk in 1969 given the geopolitical and domestic payoff structure?

Jiang's name for the analytical model he uses to anticipate geopolitical events and hopes to teach viewers through future updates and Discord Q&A.

Jiang answers that when America destroys an economy, destroys infrastructure, and divides and conquers, game theory leaves eschatology as the only proper response.

Jiang does not use math in game theory because random human behavior cannot be modeled with only a few hundred years of data; he uses intuition, doubt, debate, and imagination.

The lecture's central inversion is that if Trump wants the American empire and global economy to collapse, then actions that look buffoonish become genius strategy.

His first geopolitics rule is that strong players respect each other and prey on the weak.

If Iran proves strong and the United States and GCC prove weak, Jiang predicts Israel will abandon them and work with Iran to build a new Middle East order.

Jiang models war as political bargaining: the point is not to kill everyone but to negotiate the treaty most beneficial to one's side.

The law of proximity says people play many games at once, but the nearest visible game has the strongest effect on decision-making.

Jiang qualifies that he has no direct evidence, but says game theory makes internal civil conflict the best explanation for how leaders are being located and killed.