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So we will go, this semester, we will also discuss this semester why this i..." } ] }, { "id": "cycle-line-and-their-failure", "heading": "Cycle, Line, And Failure", "time_range": "09:24-28:31", "summary": "Jiang reviews two inherited models of history, then rejects both as too weak for prediction.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0022" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "cycle-line-and-their-failure-001", "text": "The cycle feels natural because life, seasons, and dynasties rise and fall. Chinese history becomes mandate, corruption, rebellion, and new dynasty. Greek and Roman politics become people, nobility, and king forming and breaking alliances: oligarchy creates debt, a king clears debts, monarchy decays, democracy rises, and wealth captures votes again.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ], "marks": [ { "text": "three major forces or factions", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 627.84, "end": 727.88, "time_label": "10:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "time, for a variety of reasons, because of corruption, because there's a bad emperor, they lose the mandate of heaven, which allows a rebellion, which then creates a new dynasty. So Chinese history is almost a continuou..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 729.35, "end": 803.29, "time_label": "12:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? so these are the three major forces or factions in a society and these three factions are always in conflict and what happens is a changing alliance where the two of the three get together to beat one okay and the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "this is what we call jubilee", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 864.02, "end": 927.84, "time_label": "14:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for the fact that he cleared away their debts this this is what we call jubilee by the way the word is jubilee and this happens a lot in human history but the problem is the king has a son who's not so good and then the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 564.9, "end": 627.84, "time_label": "9:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And in the past, there have been two main models for understanding historical development. Okay, so the first is the idea of a cycle or a circle. And this makes sense, right? Because this mirrors what we experience in l..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 627.84, "end": 727.88, "time_label": "10:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "time, for a variety of reasons, because of corruption, because there's a bad emperor, they lose the mandate of heaven, which allows a rebellion, which then creates a new dynasty. So Chinese history is almost a continuou..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 729.35, "end": 803.29, "time_label": "12:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? so these are the three major forces or factions in a society and these three factions are always in conflict and what happens is a changing alliance where the two of the three get together to beat one okay and the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 803.29, "end": 864.02, "time_label": "13:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "a loan and over time this loan becomes a debt and at a certain point you can't pay off the debt so what happens you become my slave and your children become my slave as well okay so this creates a lot of conflict in soc..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 864.02, "end": 927.84, "time_label": "14:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for the fact that he cleared away their debts this this is what we call jubilee by the way the word is jubilee and this happens a lot in human history but the problem is the king has a son who's not so good and then the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 927.84, "end": 981.25, "time_label": "15:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "government okay when the nobility is in charge in an Arlarchy when but then a king and the people work together or throw in a create a monarchy and then they and the king becomes corrupt and so the nobility and the peop..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "cycle-line-and-their-failure-002", "text": "The line tells another story: history moves toward truth. The Bible moves toward David, Virgil toward Pax Romana, Fukuyama toward liberal consumer democracy, Christians toward the second coming, and Hegel toward truth through dialectical conflict. Each version gives history an end.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "marks": [ { "text": "a line, the idea of progress towards truth", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0015" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 981.25, "end": 1023.65, "time_label": "16:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history four years his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history so that's idea of a cycle right we also have so that..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1023.65, "end": 1105.56, "time_label": "17:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "on us in a useless cycle it is moving towards a truth is moving towards a good end okay so then this idea has been around for a very long time remember in the Bible but when King David first sponsored rhyme a Bible the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "the end of history", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1105.56, "end": 1171.25, "time_label": "18:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "wars that will eventually lead to the rise of Augustus Caesar and this will create something called the Pax Romana and this is the end of history this is where all movement ends because once you achieve the Pax Romana t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 981.25, "end": 1023.65, "time_label": "16:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history four years his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history so that's idea of a cycle right we also have so that..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1023.65, "end": 1105.56, "time_label": "17:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "on us in a useless cycle it is moving towards a truth is moving towards a good end okay so then this idea has been around for a very long time remember in the Bible but when King David first sponsored rhyme a Bible the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1105.56, "end": 1171.25, "time_label": "18:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "wars that will eventually lead to the rise of Augustus Caesar and this will create something called the Pax Romana and this is the end of history this is where all movement ends because once you achieve the Pax Romana t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1171.71, "end": 1250.54, "time_label": "19:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We no longer have to argue about this. Everyone should try to be a liberal consumer democracy, including China. And if everyone became a consumer liberal democracy, there will be no more war. We won't want to fight beca..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1325.36, "end": 1398.988, "time_label": "22:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Alright? Now, what's important for us to understand is that these are the two basic frameworks of history. But there are variations to these two basic models. Okay? So for example, Hegel. We'll discuss Friedrich Hegel l..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1398.988, "end": 1481.27, "time_label": "23:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But it's like this almost. Right? There's an idea, something comes into conflict and this leads to a new idea which then leads to a new idea. Okay? But he still believes that we are progressing towards the truth through..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "cycle-line-and-their-failure-003", "text": "The problem is that both models are too satisfied with shape. Jiang wants a model that explains and predicts. A truth that cannot tell us why World War II started beyond evil, or why Trump, Ukraine, and the Middle East are moving the way they are, is not enough.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0022" ], "marks": [ { "text": "Truth does two things. First, it explains", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0022" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1570.39, "end": 1635.17, "time_label": "26:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And for me, this is frustrating because if the history is any good, if the history is accurate, then it should help us predict the future. Or at least better understand the present. Okay? So the idea of truth. What is t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "then it also has to predict", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0022" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1570.39, "end": 1635.17, "time_label": "26:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And for me, this is frustrating because if the history is any good, if the history is accurate, then it should help us predict the future. Or at least better understand the present. Okay? So the idea of truth. What is t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1482.29, "end": 1568.5, "time_label": "24:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It's a much more complicated model than these two models. But I think it is much more useful in helping us predict the causes of historical development. Okay? I want to argue why these two models don't really work..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1570.39, "end": 1635.17, "time_label": "26:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And for me, this is frustrating because if the history is any good, if the history is accurate, then it should help us predict the future. Or at least better understand the present. Okay? So the idea of truth. What is t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "cycle-line-and-their-failure-004", "text": "The most dangerous form of the line is not academic. Millions of Christian Zionists, he says, want war in the Middle East because they believe apocalyptic crisis will force Jesus to return. Crazy ideas make crazy events.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "marks": [ { "text": "Crazy ideas make crazy events", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1250.56, "end": 1324.7, "time_label": "20:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "is that this idea, it sounds like a simple idea, but this idea is what's driving a lot of the conflict in the Middle East. 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But he still believes that we are progressing towards the truth through..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1482.29, "end": 1568.5, "time_label": "24:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It's a much more complicated model than these two models. But I think it is much more useful in helping us predict the causes of historical development. Okay? I want to argue why these two models don't really work..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1570.39, "end": 1635.17, "time_label": "26:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And for me, this is frustrating because if the history is any good, if the history is accurate, then it should help us predict the future. Or at least better understand the present. Okay? So the idea of truth. What is t..." } ] }, { "id": "culture-as-meta-reality", "heading": "Culture Is Meta-Reality", "time_range": "28:31-33:44", "summary": "The oceanic model begins from cultural ecosystems, not race, economics, or technology.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "culture-as-meta-reality-001", "text": "The oceanic model removes moral judgment. It asks less whether a movement is good or bad than how it starts, why it moves, and where it is going. The world is a huge ocean with ecosystems and currents; when those currents collide, new development appears.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "marks": [ { "text": "no moral judgment", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1635.7, "end": 1711.878, "time_label": "27:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it helps us also predict what will happen. Okay? And this model is what I call the oceanic currents of history. Imagine the world as a huge ocean. And within each ocean, there's an ecosystem, which has currents. And..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "where this is going", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1635.7, "end": 1711.878, "time_label": "27:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it helps us also predict what will happen. Okay? And this model is what I call the oceanic currents of history. Imagine the world as a huge ocean. And within each ocean, there's an ecosystem, which has currents. And..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "The world is a huge ocean with ecosystems and currents", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:borderland-oceanic-current-becomes-hurricane" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1635.7, "end": 1711.878, "time_label": "27:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it helps us also predict what will happen. Okay? And this model is what I call the oceanic currents of history. Imagine the world as a huge ocean. And within each ocean, there's an ecosystem, which has currents. And..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:borderland-oceanic-current-becomes-hurricane", "valid": true, "concept": "borderland-engine", "title": null, "doc_title": "The Borderland Engine", "doc_slug": "lens/the-borderland-engine", "url": "/lens/the-borderland-engine/#borderland-oceanic-current-becomes-hurricane", "text": "The borderland engine is an oceanic-current mechanism: empire-margin contact transfers energy outward until an isolated edge can expand, collide with the center, and become a hurricane that runs until it is defeated, absorbed, becomes empire, or exhausts itself.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:predictive-history-7k5xolzwmls@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ] } ] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1635.7, "end": 1711.878, "time_label": "27:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it helps us also predict what will happen. 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Gender, race, ethnicity, and class matter less than the cultural world that tells a person how to make friends, work with a boss, raise children, and know what counts as success.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "marks": [ { "text": "culture is the meta-reality", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1711.878, "end": 1794.43, "time_label": "28:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "What I want to show you is the world is divided into cultural ecosystems. Cultural ecosystems. This is a really important idea you need to know for the rest of the semester. What I will argue is that culture is the meta..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "because of the culture, he's always a stranger", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1858.69, "end": 1928.27, "time_label": "30:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "time to learn how to use a cell phone and how to use a computer and how to drive a car, but he can do so. Does that make sense? Now, let's do another experiment. Let's take a random guy from China today and put him in G..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1711.878, "end": 1794.43, "time_label": "28:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "What I want to show you is the world is divided into cultural ecosystems. Cultural ecosystems. This is a really important idea you need to know for the rest of the semester. What I will argue is that culture is the meta..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1795.64, "end": 1858.69, "time_label": "29:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right? Now, in 2,000 years, China has changed a lot. Right? We now have the Internet. We have computers. We have cell phones. We have skyscrapers. We have cars. We have roads. Okay? So China has changed a lot in the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1858.69, "end": 1928.27, "time_label": "30:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "time to learn how to use a cell phone and how to use a computer and how to drive a car, but he can do so. Does that make sense? Now, let's do another experiment. Let's take a random guy from China today and put him in G..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "culture-as-meta-reality-003", "text": "That is why the map is made of cultural ecosystems: Europe, the Levant and Middle East, the steppes, China, India. Geography, history, and demographics produce a cultural orientation. The rest of the lecture asks what happens when those ecosystems interact.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "marks": [ { "text": "geography, history, and demographics", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2007.34, "end": 2113.999, "time_label": "33:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And then you have the steppes. Okay? So remember the steppes are this grassland, this ocean of grassland that basically extends from Hungary to Mongolia. Okay? And then you have China, India. Okay? So there are these di..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1929.3, "end": 2004.34, "time_label": "32:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "This thought experiment, I hope, shows you the persistence of culture. It's the most important part of who you are. It drives everything else. It drives how you see the world. It drives how you interact with others. Oka..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2007.34, "end": 2113.999, "time_label": "33:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And then you have the steppes. Okay? So remember the steppes are this grassland, this ocean of grassland that basically extends from Hungary to Mongolia. Okay? And then you have China, India. Okay? So there are these di..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 1711, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1635.7, "end": 1711.878, "time_label": "27:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it helps us also predict what will happen. Okay? And this model is what I call the oceanic currents of history. Imagine the world as a huge ocean. And within each ocean, there's an ecosystem, which has currents. And..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1711.878, "end": 1794.43, "time_label": "28:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "What I want to show you is the world is divided into cultural ecosystems. Cultural ecosystems. This is a really important idea you need to know for the rest of the semester. What I will argue is that culture is the meta..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1795.64, "end": 1858.69, "time_label": "29:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right? Now, in 2,000 years, China has changed a lot. Right? We now have the Internet. We have computers. We have cell phones. We have skyscrapers. We have cars. We have roads. Okay? So China has changed a lot in the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1858.69, "end": 1928.27, "time_label": "30:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "time to learn how to use a cell phone and how to use a computer and how to drive a car, but he can do so. Does that make sense? Now, let's do another experiment. Let's take a random guy from China today and put him in G..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1929.3, "end": 2004.34, "time_label": "32:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "This thought experiment, I hope, shows you the persistence of culture. It's the most important part of who you are. It drives everything else. It drives how you see the world. It drives how you interact with others. Oka..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2007.34, "end": 2113.999, "time_label": "33:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And then you have the steppes. Okay? So remember the steppes are this grassland, this ocean of grassland that basically extends from Hungary to Mongolia. Okay? And then you have China, India. Okay? So there are these di..." } ] }, { "id": "borderland-hurricane-pattern", "heading": "The Borderlands Become A Hurricane", "time_range": "33:44-40:46", "summary": "Empires energize their margins through trade, mercenary work, and raiding until the margins expand back into empire.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "borderland-hurricane-pattern-001", "text": "The pattern begins with empire meeting borderland. Mongolia is the borderland of China. Arabia is the borderland of Byzantine and Sassanian power. At first the relation is symbiotic: trade, military cooperation, and raiding. The empire needs borderland soldiers because borderland life is harder and more warlike.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "marks": [ { "text": "Borderlands are just places that are the intersections of empires", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2113.999, "end": 2196.19, "time_label": "35:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How were the Mongolians and the Manchus able to conquer the Chinese Empire? All right? And what I will show you this semester is when this happens, when an empire is conquered, the pattern is the same. There's a consist..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "they make very good soldiers", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2196.19, "end": 2267.5, "time_label": "36:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? In three ways. The first and the first most simple way that they interact is through trade. Okay? They trade with each other. Second way they interact is through military cooperation. So what often happens is the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2007.34, "end": 2113.999, "time_label": "33:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And then you have the steppes. Okay? So remember the steppes are this grassland, this ocean of grassland that basically extends from Hungary to Mongolia. Okay? And then you have China, India. Okay? So there are these di..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2113.999, "end": 2196.19, "time_label": "35:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How were the Mongolians and the Manchus able to conquer the Chinese Empire? All right? And what I will show you this semester is when this happens, when an empire is conquered, the pattern is the same. There's a consist..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2196.19, "end": 2267.5, "time_label": "36:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? In three ways. The first and the first most simple way that they interact is through trade. Okay? They trade with each other. Second way they interact is through military cooperation. So what often happens is the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "borderland-hurricane-pattern-002", "text": "Then the empire adds fuel. Wealth, knowledge, information, population, and military sophistication flow outward. The borderland becomes richer and more crowded. Internal conflict rises. Expansion becomes the way to release pressure. Sometimes the borderland conquers the empire and becomes the new empire.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "marks": [ { "text": "adding fuel to the borderlands", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:borderland-oceanic-current-becomes-hurricane" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2267.5, "end": 2343.94, "time_label": "37:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The north mid. So these are all isolated parts. But as the empire expands, they start to interact with these isolated ecosystems. And when they interact, what happens is these borderlands become energized. Okay? It's li..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:borderland-oceanic-current-becomes-hurricane", "valid": true, "concept": "borderland-engine", "title": null, "doc_title": "The Borderland Engine", "doc_slug": "lens/the-borderland-engine", "url": "/lens/the-borderland-engine/#borderland-oceanic-current-becomes-hurricane", "text": "The borderland engine is an oceanic-current mechanism: empire-margin contact transfers energy outward until an isolated edge can expand, collide with the center, and become a hurricane that runs until it is defeated, absorbed, becomes empire, or exhausts itself.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:predictive-history-7k5xolzwmls@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ] } ] }, { "text": "they will conquer the empire, become the new empire", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2345.28, "end": 2408.03, "time_label": "39:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They're like the stuff of legend and myth. When the empire expands, it energizes these borderlands. The energy makes these borderlands more wealthy, more populated, and more militarily sophisticated. That creates confli..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2267.5, "end": 2343.94, "time_label": "37:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The north mid. So these are all isolated parts. But as the empire expands, they start to interact with these isolated ecosystems. And when they interact, what happens is these borderlands become energized. Okay? It's li..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2345.28, "end": 2408.03, "time_label": "39:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They're like the stuff of legend and myth. When the empire expands, it energizes these borderlands. The energy makes these borderlands more wealthy, more populated, and more militarily sophisticated. That creates confli..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "borderland-hurricane-pattern-003", "text": "That is the historical reversal Jiang wants students to see. The edge is not empty. It is the future center under pressure. The Mongols, Manchus, Arabians, Greeks, Vikings, and northern peoples do not come from nowhere; they come from borderlands that empire helped energize.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "marks": [ { "text": "stuff of legend and myth", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2345.28, "end": 2408.03, "time_label": "39:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They're like the stuff of legend and myth. When the empire expands, it energizes these borderlands. The energy makes these borderlands more wealthy, more populated, and more militarily sophisticated. That creates confli..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "they win", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3550.45, "end": 3631.37, "time_label": "59:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "three, their kids were learning how to swim, how to row boats, how to cook, how to hunt, how to fight, how to ride horses. Does that make sense? And what are civilized kids doing? They're learning how to do test questio..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2267.5, "end": 2343.94, "time_label": "37:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The north mid. So these are all isolated parts. But as the empire expands, they start to interact with these isolated ecosystems. And when they interact, what happens is these borderlands become energized. Okay? It's li..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2345.28, "end": 2408.03, "time_label": "39:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They're like the stuff of legend and myth. When the empire expands, it energizes these borderlands. The energy makes these borderlands more wealthy, more populated, and more militarily sophisticated. That creates confli..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3365.72, "end": 3470.52, "time_label": "56:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You hire foreign mercenaries. Right? That's what China does. Or that's what China did in its history. You can't trust your own army, so you hire foreign mercenaries. And eventually what happens is you replace your army..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3550.45, "end": 3631.37, "time_label": "59:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "three, their kids were learning how to swim, how to row boats, how to cook, how to hunt, how to fight, how to ride horses. Does that make sense? And what are civilized kids doing? They're learning how to do test questio..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 2024, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2007.34, "end": 2113.999, "time_label": "33:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And then you have the steppes. Okay? So remember the steppes are this grassland, this ocean of grassland that basically extends from Hungary to Mongolia. Okay? And then you have China, India. Okay? So there are these di..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2113.999, "end": 2196.19, "time_label": "35:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How were the Mongolians and the Manchus able to conquer the Chinese Empire? All right? And what I will show you this semester is when this happens, when an empire is conquered, the pattern is the same. There's a consist..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2196.19, "end": 2267.5, "time_label": "36:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? In three ways. The first and the first most simple way that they interact is through trade. Okay? They trade with each other. Second way they interact is through military cooperation. So what often happens is the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2267.5, "end": 2343.94, "time_label": "37:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The north mid. So these are all isolated parts. But as the empire expands, they start to interact with these isolated ecosystems. And when they interact, what happens is these borderlands become energized. Okay? It's li..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2345.28, "end": 2408.03, "time_label": "39:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They're like the stuff of legend and myth. When the empire expands, it energizes these borderlands. The energy makes these borderlands more wealthy, more populated, and more militarily sophisticated. That creates confli..." } ] }, { "id": "three-collapse-conditions", "heading": "Why The Center Rots", "time_range": "40:46-54:51", "summary": "Empires fall because financialism, rat utopia, and elite overproduction destroy productive work, status pathways, and elite cohesion.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "three-collapse-conditions-001", "text": "All societies meet three boundary conditions. Financialism comes first. Productive work builds farms, factories, restaurants, and real wealth. Then capital discovers that lending, monopoly, rents, stocks, real estate, and assets pay better than making things. The society stops producing value.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0036" ], "marks": [ { "text": "financialism", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2408.21, "end": 2499.003, "time_label": "40:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How is it possible for the borderlands, which, again, is only a fraction of the wealth, the population and the resources of the empire, how were they able to conquer the empire? And this is a really important lesson you..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "more profitable for you to lend money than to build things", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2499.003, "end": 2580.44, "time_label": "41:39", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I'm creating wealth for the society. Right? You can also do that by building a factory. But over time, what happens is you eventually realize that it's more profitable for you to lend money than to build things. Does th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "your society isn't producing any value", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0036" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2672.72, "end": 2742.68, "time_label": "44:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? On average, if you put $100 in the stock market, you make $5. All right? But the return on the real economy is only 2%. Meaning, if you start a factory and you hire people, or you start a restaurant, which contrib..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2408.21, "end": 2499.003, "time_label": "40:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How is it possible for the borderlands, which, again, is only a fraction of the wealth, the population and the resources of the empire, how were they able to conquer the empire? And this is a really important lesson you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2499.003, "end": 2580.44, "time_label": "41:39", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I'm creating wealth for the society. Right? You can also do that by building a factory. But over time, what happens is you eventually realize that it's more profitable for you to lend money than to build things. Does th..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2580.48, "end": 2672.72, "time_label": "43:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? So, the example is, okay, there are five restaurants in Beijing. They're obviously trying to compete against each other for customers. So, they lower prices and try to create better food. But event..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2672.72, "end": 2742.68, "time_label": "44:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? On average, if you put $100 in the stock market, you make $5. All right? But the return on the real economy is only 2%. Meaning, if you start a factory and you hire people, or you start a restaurant, which contrib..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "three-collapse-conditions-002", "text": "War then becomes the reset. When financialism has hollowed out production, destruction forces rebuilding. The sentence is brutal because it is not a moral defense of war. It is a claim about why societies keep using war to restart dead economies.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "marks": [ { "text": "war means a game reset", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2744.33, "end": 2815.9, "time_label": "45:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And when you're in this situation, what are you forced to do now? If you're a society and you want to continue, what are you forced to do? See me? No. What do you do? 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They want status.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "marks": [ { "text": "we all like status", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2956.13, "end": 3019.36, "time_label": "49:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Everyday food would come down from the heavens. And all the rats could do whatever they want. They would have complete freedom. This is what we call rat utopia. It turned out all society collapsed. It was a complete dis..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "people on the mountaintop have to fall off and die", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0041" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 3020.8, "end": 3068, "time_label": "50:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How this game works is people on the mountaintop have to fall off and die in order for other people to climb up. Does that make sense? But what happens when the people on the mountaintop don't die? Well, you're just stu..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "What you want is not money. What you want is status", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3068.22, "end": 3136.32, "time_label": "51:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And they're not dying. So what are young people doing? Tengping, Bailan, right? Quiet quitting. Lying flat. Because you don't see any opportunities. What you want is not money. What you want is status. And that requires..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2816.38, "end": 2887.14, "time_label": "46:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right now in the West, it's the same thing as well. And at that point, you have no choice but to start a war to reset your society. Or your society will continue to decline. 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Then what..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "import the people from the borderland", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3291.12, "end": 3365.66, "time_label": "54:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "human history, empires that have persisted for the longest have this huge problem where the majority of the population suffers from too much debt and suffers from too much landlessness. No opportunities. Okay? Then what..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3208.29, "end": 3291.12, "time_label": "53:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "This creates civil war. 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It is an example of the pattern.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "marks": [ { "text": "The foreign mercenaries take over your empire", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3365.72, "end": 3470.52, "time_label": "56:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You hire foreign mercenaries. Right? That's what China does. Or that's what China did in its history. You can't trust your own army, so you hire foreign mercenaries. 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In the borderlands, there's a certain culture..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "civilized kids... learning how to do test questions", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3550.45, "end": 3631.37, "time_label": "59:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "three, their kids were learning how to swim, how to row boats, how to cook, how to hunt, how to fight, how to ride horses. Does that make sense? And what are civilized kids doing? They're learning how to do test questio..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3365.72, "end": 3470.52, "time_label": "56:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You hire foreign mercenaries. Right? That's what China does. Or that's what China did in its history. You can't trust your own army, so you hire foreign mercenaries. And eventually what happens is you replace your army..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 3470.7, "end": 3550.45, "time_label": "57:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That makes no sense to you. Right? So what I'm trying to say, what I'm trying to tell you is this is a wrong way of looking at it. A better way of looking at it is culture. In the borderlands, there's a certain culture..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3550.45, "end": 3631.37, "time_label": "59:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "three, their kids were learning how to swim, how to row boats, how to cook, how to hunt, how to fight, how to ride horses. Does that make sense? And what are civilized kids doing? They're learning how to do test questio..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 3291, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3208.29, "end": 3291.12, "time_label": "53:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "This creates civil war. In fact, if you are to look at America today, you can say there's a civil war going on between two different factions of the elite. Okay? Does that make sense? And this is what drives a lot of hi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3291.12, "end": 3365.66, "time_label": "54:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "human history, empires that have persisted for the longest have this huge problem where the majority of the population suffers from too much debt and suffers from too much landlessness. No opportunities. Okay? Then what..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3365.72, "end": 3470.52, "time_label": "56:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You hire foreign mercenaries. Right? That's what China does. Or that's what China did in its history. You can't trust your own army, so you hire foreign mercenaries. And eventually what happens is you replace your army..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 3470.7, "end": 3550.45, "time_label": "57:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That makes no sense to you. Right? So what I'm trying to say, what I'm trying to tell you is this is a wrong way of looking at it. A better way of looking at it is culture. In the borderlands, there's a certain culture..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3550.45, "end": 3631.37, "time_label": "59:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "three, their kids were learning how to swim, how to row boats, how to cook, how to hunt, how to fight, how to ride horses. Does that make sense? And what are civilized kids doing? They're learning how to do test questio..." } ] }, { "id": "current-hurricanes", "heading": "The Current Hurricanes", "time_range": "60:31-70:09", "summary": "The model returns to the present: Ukraine, the Middle East, East Asia, America, and Iran are treated as active or forming hurricanes.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0057" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "current-hurricanes-001", "text": "Now the metaphor hardens. When borderland energy becomes too intense, it becomes a hurricane. The hurricane rides through history. Sometimes it loses; sometimes Greeks, Vikings, Mongols, Arabians, or other borderland peoples win. When they win, they destroy.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "marks": [ { "text": "now become like a hurricane", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3550.45, "end": 3631.37, "time_label": "59:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "three, their kids were learning how to swim, how to row boats, how to cook, how to hunt, how to fight, how to ride horses. Does that make sense? And what are civilized kids doing? They're learning how to do test questio..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "Once they start, you cannot stop them", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:borderland-oceanic-current-becomes-hurricane" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3632.11, "end": 3699.27, "time_label": "1:00:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And when they win, they create a lot of destruction. Okay? And that's the idea I want you to implant in your head. These are currents. These are natural forces that are unstoppable. Once they start, you cannot stop them..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:borderland-oceanic-current-becomes-hurricane", "valid": true, "concept": "borderland-engine", "title": null, "doc_title": "The Borderland Engine", "doc_slug": "lens/the-borderland-engine", "url": "/lens/the-borderland-engine/#borderland-oceanic-current-becomes-hurricane", "text": "The borderland engine is an oceanic-current mechanism: empire-margin contact transfers energy outward until an isolated edge can expand, collide with the center, and become a hurricane that runs until it is defeated, absorbed, becomes empire, or exhausts itself.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:predictive-history-7k5xolzwmls@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ] } ] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3550.45, "end": 3631.37, "time_label": "59:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "three, their kids were learning how to swim, how to row boats, how to cook, how to hunt, how to fight, how to ride horses. Does that make sense? And what are civilized kids doing? They're learning how to do test questio..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3632.11, "end": 3699.27, "time_label": "1:00:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And when they win, they create a lot of destruction. Okay? And that's the idea I want you to implant in your head. These are currents. These are natural forces that are unstoppable. Once they start, you cannot stop them..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "current-hurricanes-002", "text": "The frightening claim is that Ukraine is a hurricane that will engulf Europe, and the Middle East is a hurricane that will engulf the world. Nothing will be the same because the currents destroy what they pass through. This is not diplomacy as failure of will. It is history as natural force.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "marks": [ { "text": "Ukraine... will engulf all of Europe", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3632.11, "end": 3699.27, "time_label": "1:00:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And when they win, they create a lot of destruction. Okay? And that's the idea I want you to implant in your head. These are currents. These are natural forces that are unstoppable. Once they start, you cannot stop them..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "the Middle East... will engulf the entire world", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3632.11, "end": 3699.27, "time_label": "1:00:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And when they win, they create a lot of destruction. Okay? And that's the idea I want you to implant in your head. These are currents. These are natural forces that are unstoppable. Once they start, you cannot stop them..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "complete and utter destruction of the world we live in today", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3699.57, "end": 3784, "time_label": "1:01:39", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And I will also show you how this connects to current events. And then, once we do that, we should be able to predict current events. And just to let you know, spoiler alert, things will not end well. Okay? We are looki..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3632.11, "end": 3699.27, "time_label": "1:00:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And when they win, they create a lot of destruction. Okay? And that's the idea I want you to implant in your head. These are currents. These are natural forces that are unstoppable. Once they start, you cannot stop them..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3699.57, "end": 3784, "time_label": "1:01:39", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And I will also show you how this connects to current events. And then, once we do that, we should be able to predict current events. And just to let you know, spoiler alert, things will not end well. Okay? We are looki..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "current-hurricanes-003", "text": "A student asks what starts these hurricanes. The answer is that they do not really start. Currents are always moving. Once an empire exists, it is already energizing some borderland. Prediction means finding where hurricanes are forming before they arrive.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "marks": [ { "text": "There's no start. They're always in motion", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:borderland-oceanic-current-becomes-hurricane" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3784.08, "end": 3850.58, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. What starts these hurricanes? Or what starts this process? All right. So, if you look at an ocean, you will discover that these currents are happening all the time. You understand? There's no start. They're always..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:borderland-oceanic-current-becomes-hurricane", "valid": true, "concept": "borderland-engine", "title": null, "doc_title": "The Borderland Engine", "doc_slug": "lens/the-borderland-engine", "url": "/lens/the-borderland-engine/#borderland-oceanic-current-becomes-hurricane", "text": "The borderland engine is an oceanic-current mechanism: empire-margin contact transfers energy outward until an isolated edge can expand, collide with the center, and become a hurricane that runs until it is defeated, absorbed, becomes empire, or exhausts itself.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:predictive-history-7k5xolzwmls@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ] } ] }, { "text": "figure out where they're forming", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3784.08, "end": 3850.58, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. What starts these hurricanes? Or what starts this process? All right. So, if you look at an ocean, you will discover that these currents are happening all the time. You understand? There's no start. They're always..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3699.57, "end": 3784, "time_label": "1:01:39", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And I will also show you how this connects to current events. And then, once we do that, we should be able to predict current events. And just to let you know, spoiler alert, things will not end well. Okay? We are looki..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3784.08, "end": 3850.58, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. What starts these hurricanes? Or what starts this process? All right. So, if you look at an ocean, you will discover that these currents are happening all the time. You understand? There's no start. They're always..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "current-hurricanes-004", "text": "The forming hurricanes are named directly. East Asia will eventually have conflict, but Jiang does not think it will be a simple United States-China fight over Taiwan; he expects Japan and South Korea to be involved. America itself is a hurricane, with civil-war pressure accelerating around a contested 2028 election. The biggest and scariest hurricane is Iran, because a U.S.-Iran conflict would drag in the whole world.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "marks": [ { "text": "it will involve Japan and South Korea", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 3851.3, "end": 3909.23, "time_label": "1:04:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right? Now, a lot of people are saying the conflict will be between China and the U.S. I do not think that's the case. I do not think the conflict will be between the United States and China. I think it will involve..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "America is itself a hurricane", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 3851.3, "end": 3909.23, "time_label": "1:04:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right? Now, a lot of people are saying the conflict will be between China and the U.S. I do not think that's the case. I do not think the conflict will be between the United States and China. I think it will involve..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "things will speed up in 2028", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 3851.3, "end": 3909.23, "time_label": "1:04:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right? Now, a lot of people are saying the conflict will be between China and the U.S. I do not think that's the case. I do not think the conflict will be between the United States and China. I think it will involve..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "Iran... will drag in the entire world", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 3909.99, "end": 3990.1, "time_label": "1:05:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And there's a very good chance Trump will run again in 2028. Okay? But I, but I think these are two big hurricanes that are coming along the way. Not now, but they're coming along along the way. The big scary hurricane,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3784.08, "end": 3850.58, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. What starts these hurricanes? Or what starts this process? All right. So, if you look at an ocean, you will discover that these currents are happening all the time. You understand? There's no start. They're always..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 3851.3, "end": 3909.23, "time_label": "1:04:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right? Now, a lot of people are saying the conflict will be between China and the U.S. I do not think that's the case. I do not think the conflict will be between the United States and China. I think it will involve..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 3909.99, "end": 3990.1, "time_label": "1:05:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And there's a very good chance Trump will run again in 2028. Okay? But I, but I think these are two big hurricanes that are coming along the way. Not now, but they're coming along along the way. The big scary hurricane,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "current-hurricanes-005", "text": "The Viking example closes the mechanism. Vikings expand to Greenland, Iceland, North America, Normandy, Ukraine, Rus, Russia, England, and Britain not because they lack resources, but because wealth, power, and too few status positions make expansion necessary. Empire building is status overflow.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0057" ], "marks": [ { "text": "not because you lack resources", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 4121.882, "end": 4195.189, "time_label": "1:08:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The hurricane is created because they have wealth, power, but they don't have enough status positions so that they expand to fill these status positions. Okay? This is actually what drives empire building. Does that mak..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "not enough status positions", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 4121.882, "end": 4195.189, "time_label": "1:08:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The hurricane is created because they have wealth, power, but they don't have enough status positions so that they expand to fill these status positions. Okay? This is actually what drives empire building. Does that mak..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "what drives empire building", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 4121.882, "end": 4195.189, "time_label": "1:08:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The hurricane is created because they have wealth, power, but they don't have enough status positions so that they expand to fill these status positions. Okay? This is actually what drives empire building. Does that mak..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 3909.99, "end": 3990.1, "time_label": "1:05:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And there's a very good chance Trump will run again in 2028. Okay? But I, but I think these are two big hurricanes that are coming along the way. Not now, but they're coming along along the way. The big scary hurricane,..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 3990.7, "end": 4044.91, "time_label": "1:06:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The Vikings, which we'll discuss a lot, they're in Northern Europe. And for most of human history, we had actually no idea they were there. Okay? They were in the north in Denmark, in Norway, in Sweden. And they basical..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 4044.91, "end": 4121.882, "time_label": "1:07:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Normandy. All right? And then they went over here to Ukraine along the river because they were trading with the Islamic Empire. And they founded colonies or new settlements. And this was a peaceful process. Okay? Becaus..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 4121.882, "end": 4195.189, "time_label": "1:08:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The hurricane is created because they have wealth, power, but they don't have enough status positions so that they expand to fill these status positions. Okay? This is actually what drives empire building. Does that mak..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 4195.189, "end": 4209.44, "time_label": "1:09:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the Frankish Empire will lead to the rise of the Vikings. All right? All right. So those are the next three classes. All right. Great." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 3631, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3550.45, "end": 3631.37, "time_label": "59:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "three, their kids were learning how to swim, how to row boats, how to cook, how to hunt, how to fight, how to ride horses. Does that make sense? And what are civilized kids doing? They're learning how to do test questio..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3632.11, "end": 3699.27, "time_label": "1:00:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And when they win, they create a lot of destruction. Okay? And that's the idea I want you to implant in your head. These are currents. These are natural forces that are unstoppable. Once they start, you cannot stop them..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3699.57, "end": 3784, "time_label": "1:01:39", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And I will also show you how this connects to current events. And then, once we do that, we should be able to predict current events. And just to let you know, spoiler alert, things will not end well. Okay? We are looki..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3784.08, "end": 3850.58, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. What starts these hurricanes? Or what starts this process? All right. So, if you look at an ocean, you will discover that these currents are happening all the time. You understand? There's no start. They're always..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 3851.3, "end": 3909.23, "time_label": "1:04:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right? Now, a lot of people are saying the conflict will be between China and the U.S. I do not think that's the case. I do not think the conflict will be between the United States and China. I think it will involve..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 3909.99, "end": 3990.1, "time_label": "1:05:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And there's a very good chance Trump will run again in 2028. Okay? But I, but I think these are two big hurricanes that are coming along the way. Not now, but they're coming along along the way. The big scary hurricane,..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 3990.7, "end": 4044.91, "time_label": "1:06:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The Vikings, which we'll discuss a lot, they're in Northern Europe. And for most of human history, we had actually no idea they were there. Okay? They were in the north in Denmark, in Norway, in Sweden. And they basical..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 4044.91, "end": 4121.882, "time_label": "1:07:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Normandy. All right? And then they went over here to Ukraine along the river because they were trading with the Islamic Empire. And they founded colonies or new settlements. And this was a peaceful process. Okay? Becaus..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 4121.882, "end": 4195.189, "time_label": "1:08:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The hurricane is created because they have wealth, power, but they don't have enough status positions so that they expand to fill these status positions. Okay? This is actually what drives empire building. Does that mak..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 4195.189, "end": 4209.44, "time_label": "1:09:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the Frankish Empire will lead to the rise of the Vikings. All right? All right. So those are the next three classes. All right. Great." } ] } ], "questions": [ { "question": "What starts these hurricanes?", "answer": "Jiang answers that there is no clean starting point. Currents are always moving; once an empire exists, it begins energizing borderlands, and prediction means locating where the next hurricane is forming.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3699.57, "end": 3784, "time_label": "1:01:39", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And I will also show you how this connects to current events. And then, once we do that, we should be able to predict current events. And just to let you know, spoiler alert, things will not end well. Okay? We are looki..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3784.08, "end": 3850.58, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. What starts these hurricanes? Or what starts this process? All right. So, if you look at an ocean, you will discover that these currents are happening all the time. You understand? There's no start. They're always..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Jiang answers that there is no clean starting point. Currents are always moving; once an empire exists, it begins energizing borderlands, and prediction means locating where the next hurricane is forming.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3699.57, "end": 3784, "time_label": "1:01:39", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And I will also show you how this connects to current events. And then, once we do that, we should be able to predict current events. And just to let you know, spoiler alert, things will not end well. Okay? We are looki..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3784.08, "end": 3850.58, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. What starts these hurricanes? Or what starts this process? All right. So, if you look at an ocean, you will discover that these currents are happening all the time. You understand? There's no start. They're always..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "question": "Does the hurricane continue until it overwhelms the empire?", "answer": "Jiang answers yes in effect: the hurricane runs until it overwhelms the empire or exhausts its energy. 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Becaus..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 4121.882, "end": 4195.189, "time_label": "1:08:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The hurricane is created because they have wealth, power, but they don't have enough status positions so that they expand to fill these status positions. Okay? This is actually what drives empire building. Does that mak..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Jiang answers yes in effect: the hurricane runs until it overwhelms the empire or exhausts its energy. He then uses Viking expansion, Normandy, Rus, Russia, England, and status pressure to show how the force spends itself.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 3909.99, "end": 3990.1, "time_label": "1:05:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And there's a very good chance Trump will run again in 2028. Okay? But I, but I think these are two big hurricanes that are coming along the way. Not now, but they're coming along along the way. 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So welcome to the first class of the second semester. This semester we are going to build on what we've learned the first semester to better understand human history and to better understand what's happening in the world today and also to be able to predict the future. Okay, so if you have been following current events, and I hope you have, there are now three major conflicts in the world. The first and most devastating is the war in the Ukraine, where Russia and Ukraine have been in conflict for about three years now, and a lot of people have died. There's controversy over the exact number, but it's possible. It's possible that over a million soldiers have died in this war so far, and even though President Donald Trump of the United States has shown signs that he wants to end the war, we don't really know when the war will end. Okay, so this", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-001", "start": 0.05, "end": 0.99, "text": "Okay, good morning.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-002", "start": 1.15, "end": 5.23, "text": "So welcome to the first class of the second semester.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-003", "start": 5.87, "end": 11.21, "text": "This semester we are going to build on what we've learned the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-004", "start": 11.21, "end": 19.32, "text": "first semester to better understand human history and to better understand what's", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-005", "start": 19.32, "end": 23.89, "text": "happening in the world today and also to be able to predict", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-006", "start": 23.89, "end": 24.53, "text": "the future.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-007", "start": 25.16, "end": 27.36, "text": "Okay, so if you have been following current events,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-008", "start": 27.48, "end": 28.18, "text": "and I hope you have,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-009", "start": 28.56, "end": 35.38, "text": "there are now three major conflicts in the world.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-010", "start": 35.56, "end": 41.11, "text": "The first and most devastating is the war in the Ukraine,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-011", "start": 42.16, "end": 48.88, "text": "where Russia and Ukraine have been in conflict for about three years", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-012", "start": 48.88, "end": 51.6, "text": "now, and a lot of people have died.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-013", "start": 53.02, "end": 56.16, "text": "There's controversy over the exact number,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-014", "start": 56.3, "end": 60.84, "text": "but it's possible.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-015", "start": 60.86, "end": 63.54, "text": "It's possible that over a million soldiers have died in this war", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-016", "start": 63.54, "end": 70.86, "text": "so far, and even though President Donald Trump of the United States", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-017", "start": 70.86, "end": 76.17, "text": "has shown signs that he wants to end the war,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-018", "start": 76.39, "end": 81.54, "text": "we don't really know when the war will end.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-019", "start": 82.3, "end": 83.38, "text": "Okay, so this", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "8d806050487788e64bbf741c8d5c1159c44d8072753b2980a5ac98f27eb49481", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0001", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=0s", "time_label": "0:00", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0002", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "start": 83.38, "end": 162.71, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "war in Ukraine, it is still happening, and it's affecting everything and everyone because obviously, it brings a lot of instability and uncertainty in the world, but it's also driving up prices and it's making things inconvenient. So when you fly the United States, you'll discover that it takes you long enough to fly the United States because you can't fly through Russia. You have to fly around Russia, okay? So that's the first major conflict. The second conflict, which is not as deadly, but which will probably prove to be even more dangerous, is the war in the Middle East, the conflict in the Middle East. As you know, for the past couple years, Israel has been in conflict with basically most of its neighbors. It's launched an expedition into the Gaza Strip against Hamas, what Hamas did on October 7th. It's launched a war against Lebanon. It's involved in Syria, and it's a war against Israel. And the signs tell us that this conflict will spread.", "word_count": 168, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-001", "start": 83.38, "end": 86.82, "text": "war in Ukraine, it is still happening,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-002", "start": 86.98, "end": 94.22, "text": "and it's affecting everything and everyone because obviously,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-003", "start": 94.54, "end": 97.86, "text": "it brings a lot of instability and uncertainty in the world,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-004", "start": 98.06, "end": 101.02, "text": "but it's also driving up prices and it's making things inconvenient.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-005", "start": 101.42, "end": 102.72, "text": "So when you fly the United States,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-006", "start": 102.82, "end": 105.34, "text": "you'll discover that it takes you long enough to fly the United", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-007", "start": 105.34, "end": 108.24, "text": "States because you can't fly through Russia.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-008", "start": 108.44, "end": 110.42, "text": "You have to fly around Russia,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-009", "start": 110.6, "end": 113.48, "text": "okay? So that's the first major conflict.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-010", "start": 114.23, "end": 118.75, "text": "The second conflict, which is not as deadly,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-011", "start": 118.91, "end": 124.53, "text": "but which will probably prove to be even more dangerous,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-012", "start": 124.89, "end": 127.05, "text": "is the war in the Middle East,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-013", "start": 127.11, "end": 128.17, "text": "the conflict in the Middle East.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-014", "start": 129.36, "end": 132.46, "text": "As you know, for the past couple years,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-015", "start": 132.94, "end": 137.84, "text": "Israel has been in conflict with basically most of its neighbors.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-016", "start": 138.5, "end": 144.74, "text": "It's launched an expedition into the Gaza Strip against Hamas,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-017", "start": 144.78, "end": 146.74, "text": "what Hamas did on October 7th.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-018", "start": 148.15, "end": 151.31, "text": "It's launched a war against Lebanon.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-019", "start": 151.41, "end": 155.2, "text": "It's involved in Syria, and it's a war against Israel.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-020", "start": 155.2, "end": 156.32, "text": "And the", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-021", "start": 156.54, "end": 162.71, "text": "signs tell us that this conflict will spread.", "word_count": 8 } ], "text_sha256": "4648514391a3a7a5ada4f16ca573fb4c6e35a9899ee4a5612880c4cc92d23c67", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0002", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=83s", "time_label": "1:23", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0003", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "start": 164.2, "end": 244.02, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Trump has come in and promised a resolution to the conflict, but as I will show you this semester, there are historical structural forces that make this conflict possibly the beginning of World War Three. This conflict will only increase. The great fear right now is Israel attacks Iran and drives the United States into war with Iran. And this will mark the beginning of World War Three, and this could possibly lead to the end of the world as we know it today. If the United States attacks Iran, both Russia and China must intervene in some capacity. Does that make sense to you guys? Iran right now, is the linchpin of the global economy. The first reason is there's a lot of oil in Iran in the Middle East. And China, South Korea, and Japan get most of its oil from the Middle East, right? So if the oil supplies", "word_count": 152, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-001", "start": 164.2, "end": 169.12, "text": "Trump has come in and promised a resolution to the conflict,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-002", "start": 169.46, "end": 171.86, "text": "but as I will show you this semester,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-003", "start": 172.24, "end": 182.02, "text": "there are historical structural forces that make this conflict possibly the beginning", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-004", "start": 182.02, "end": 182.82, "text": "of World War Three.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-005", "start": 183.06, "end": 185.97, "text": "This conflict will only increase.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-006", "start": 185.97, "end": 192.57, "text": "The great fear right now is Israel attacks Iran and drives the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-007", "start": 192.57, "end": 195.67, "text": "United States into war with Iran.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-008", "start": 196.54, "end": 201.42, "text": "And this will mark the beginning of World War Three,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-009", "start": 202.26, "end": 205.96, "text": "and this could possibly lead to the end of the world as", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-010", "start": 205.96, "end": 206.74, "text": "we know it today.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-011", "start": 207.76, "end": 209.52, "text": "If the United States attacks Iran,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-012", "start": 209.86, "end": 217.38, "text": "both Russia and China must intervene in some capacity.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-013", "start": 217.89, "end": 219.41, "text": "Does that make sense to you guys?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-014", "start": 220.01, "end": 224.53, "text": "Iran right now, is the linchpin of the global economy.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-015", "start": 225.32, "end": 230.12, "text": "The first reason is there's a lot of oil in Iran in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-016", "start": 230.12, "end": 230.58, "text": "the Middle East.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-017", "start": 231.27, "end": 239.34, "text": "And China, South Korea, and Japan get most of its oil from", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-018", "start": 239.34, "end": 240.62, "text": "the Middle East, right?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-019", "start": 240.96, "end": 244.02, "text": "So if the oil supplies", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "ebc00f0c1981a143ff9901587029de94a48c82d6962bcc172671db0dcfa1a857", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0003", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=164s", "time_label": "2:44", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0004", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "start": 244.02, "end": 316.7, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "cut off, then the Chinese economy, the South Korean economy, the Japanese Basically, all of East Asia faces economic collapse and catastrophe, okay? But second is, if you look at a map, Iran is really the center of the world, meaning most of the world's trade goes through that area, especially something called the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has a capacity to cut off all trade in the Strait of Hormuz, and that would be catastrophe for the global economy. And if that were to happen, then the Western powers would need to get involved in order to free up the Strait of Hormuz, and then Russia, India, China, who knows? Okay, but a lot of people would have to get involved in order to protect their economic interests. So I will go into the semester and I will go into the semester and I will go into the semester and we'll talk a lot about what's driving the conflict in the Middle East.", "word_count": 164, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-001", "start": 244.02, "end": 246.16, "text": "cut off, then the Chinese economy,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-002", "start": 246.44, "end": 249.68, "text": "the South Korean economy, the Japanese Basically,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-003", "start": 249.68, "end": 253.42, "text": "all of East Asia faces economic collapse and catastrophe,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-004", "start": 254.56, "end": 259.83, "text": "okay? 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And then the third and final conflict is basically the United States against the world. What I mean by that is, that ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1991, we have been living in something called a unipolar moment, meaning there's only one hegemon, one superpower. And as such, the United States has been able to dictate policy, especially economic policy, around the world. The United States controls all trade. We have to use the US dollar, we have to use the US dollar in order to trade. The United States also uses its military to protect shipping lanes. And this is a criticism called the Pax Americana, the American peace. And this, of course, has brought tremendous prosperity to the world.", "word_count": 162, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-001", "start": 317.35, "end": 320.04, "text": "There are these geopolitical factors,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-002", "start": 320.2, "end": 325.26, "text": "as I've discussed, but there are also these religious factors that we", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-003", "start": 325.26, "end": 328.22, "text": "looked into a bit last semester,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-004", "start": 328.46, "end": 331.12, "text": "but I will explain more this semester,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-005", "start": 331.4, "end": 341.47, "text": "okay? 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It is American ships, American warships, that allow Chinese ships to sail safely around the world, to deliver goods around the world. But this unipolar moment has also created a lot of conflict. The main conflict being, the United States can invade any country for no reason. 2003, it invaded Iraq for no reason. It destroyed Libya for no reason. It almost destroyed Syria for no reason. So the number of countries, the United States has gone and destroyed, are just staggering. So, and that's why Russia, under Putin, because it felt bullied, it felt disrespected, that's why Russia is now in conflict with the United States. And strangely enough, this conflict has caused the United States to go into conflict with the rest of the world, okay? So as you may know, the United States right now, under Trump, has declared, or is about to launch trade wars against a lot of countries.", "word_count": 168, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-001", "start": 395.76, "end": 401.16, "text": "China would not have grown as fast as China did without the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-002", "start": 401.16, "end": 402.04, "text": "Pax Americana.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-003", "start": 402.47, "end": 406.37, "text": "It is American ships, American warships,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-004", "start": 406.37, "end": 410.93, "text": "that allow Chinese ships to sail safely around the world,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-005", "start": 410.99, "end": 413.03, "text": "to deliver goods around the world.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-006", "start": 415.22, "end": 419.38, "text": "But this unipolar moment has also created a lot of conflict.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-007", "start": 420.42, "end": 424.32, "text": "The main conflict being, the United States can invade any country for", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-008", "start": 424.32, "end": 425.24, "text": "no reason.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-009", "start": 425.74, "end": 428.68, "text": "2003, it invaded Iraq for no reason.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-010", "start": 429.28, "end": 432.94, "text": "It destroyed Libya for no reason.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-011", "start": 435.14, "end": 437.7, "text": "It almost destroyed Syria for no reason.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-012", "start": 438.68, "end": 440.06, "text": "So the number of countries,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-013", "start": 440.06, "end": 441.48, "text": "the United States has gone and destroyed,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-014", "start": 441.72, "end": 443.1, "text": "are just staggering.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-015", "start": 444.54, "end": 447.12, "text": "So, and that's why Russia,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-016", "start": 447.24, "end": 451.4, "text": "under Putin, because it felt bullied,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-017", "start": 452.46, "end": 458.52, "text": "it felt disrespected, that's why Russia is now in conflict with the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-018", "start": 458.52, "end": 459, "text": "United States.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-019", "start": 460.22, "end": 465.36, "text": "And strangely enough, this conflict has caused the United States to go", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-020", "start": 465.36, "end": 468.84, "text": "into conflict with the rest of the world,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-021", "start": 469, "end": 470.56, "text": "okay? So as you may know,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-022", "start": 470.7, "end": 471.98, "text": "the United States right now,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-023", "start": 472.62, "end": 473.34, "text": "under Trump,", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-024", "start": 473.4, "end": 478.56, "text": "has declared, or is about to launch trade wars against a lot", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-025", "start": 478.56, "end": 479.02, "text": "of countries.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "0ddd8b4c2b738e184405feb428553c9c8bd1e69080cf88b173634b6e7e0df98c", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0006", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=395s", "time_label": "6:35", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0007", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "start": 481.11, "end": 564.22, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Canada, Mexico, quite possibly, very quickly, the European Union, and the United States is already at economic war with Russia and China, okay? So we will go, this semester, we will also discuss this semester why this is happening. Again, my argument to you is that if you know enough history, if you study the history of the United States, if you study the historical structural forces that drive global conflict, then you will understand what's going on, and you will also be able to predict what will happen. Does that make sense? Okay, so what I want to talk today is about a new model of historical analysis. How can we understand the movement of history. Why do people do what they do? Why do nations go to war? Why do nations have peace? Okay, so I'm looking at grand history. I'm looking at the large structural movement of history.", "word_count": 151, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-001", "start": 481.11, "end": 487.04, "text": "Canada, Mexico, quite possibly, very quickly,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-002", "start": 487.12, "end": 493.21, "text": "the European Union, and the United States is already at economic war", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-003", "start": 493.21, "end": 497.49, "text": "with Russia and China, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-004", "start": 497.79, "end": 499.97, "text": "So we will go, this semester,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-005", "start": 500.09, "end": 503.09, "text": "we will also discuss this semester why this is happening.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-006", "start": 503.67, "end": 506.85, "text": "Again, my argument to you is that if you know enough history,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-007", "start": 507.03, "end": 508.43, "text": "if you study the history of the United States,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-008", "start": 508.43, "end": 517.49, "text": "if you study the historical structural forces that drive global conflict,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-009", "start": 517.73, "end": 520.5, "text": "then you will understand what's going on,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-010", "start": 520.74, "end": 526.38, "text": "and you will also be able to predict what will happen.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-011", "start": 528.3, "end": 530.56, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-012", "start": 532.02, "end": 538.03, "text": "Okay, so what I want to talk today is about a new", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-013", "start": 538.03, "end": 540.19, "text": "model of historical analysis.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-014", "start": 541.46, "end": 545.14, "text": "How can we understand the movement of history.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-015", "start": 545.36, "end": 548, "text": "Why do people do what they do?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-016", "start": 548.2, "end": 550.4, "text": "Why do nations go to war?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-017", "start": 550.58, "end": 552.62, "text": "Why do nations have peace?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-018", "start": 553.62, "end": 557.3, "text": "Okay, so I'm looking at grand history.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-019", "start": 557.58, "end": 559.54, "text": "I'm looking at the", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-020", "start": 559.54, "end": 564.22, "text": "large structural movement of history.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "52000bec7f963d7a535fdbc276a5877a5cc19bab633902f6ecf16ab7b18b04cd", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0007", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=481s", "time_label": "8:01", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0008", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "start": 564.9, "end": 627.84, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And in the past, there have been two main models for understanding historical development. Okay, so the first is the idea of a cycle or a circle. And this makes sense, right? Because this mirrors what we experience in life. When we are born, but then we die. And then other people are born, and then they die. Okay, so it's a cycle. You look at the seasons. There's winter, but that gives rise to spring, which then gives rise to summer, then the fall, then winter again. It's a cycle. Okay, so for most of human history, most people have understood the movement of the world as a cycle. This is certainly true in Chinese history, right? Dynasties rise because they have the mandate of heaven. Heaven favors them. And then they rise because they have the mandate of heaven. Heaven favors them. And then they do justice when they first arise. But over", "word_count": 155, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-001", "start": 564.9, "end": 573.06, "text": "And in the past, there have been two main models for understanding", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-002", "start": 573.06, "end": 574.4, "text": "historical development.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-003", "start": 575.1, "end": 580.7, "text": "Okay, so the first is the idea of a cycle or a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-004", "start": 580.7, "end": 583.02, "text": "circle. And this makes sense,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-005", "start": 583.18, "end": 586.8, "text": "right? Because this mirrors what we experience in life.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-006", "start": 587.42, "end": 589.68, "text": "When we are born, but then we die.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-007", "start": 590.51, "end": 591.97, "text": "And then other people are born,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-008", "start": 592.05, "end": 592.65, "text": "and then they die.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-009", "start": 592.77, "end": 593.77, "text": "Okay, so it's a cycle.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-010", "start": 594.07, "end": 595.91, "text": "You look at the seasons.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-011", "start": 596.27, "end": 600.25, "text": "There's winter, but that gives rise to spring,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-012", "start": 600.49, "end": 603.15, "text": "which then gives rise to summer,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-013", "start": 603.37, "end": 604.75, "text": "then the fall, then winter again.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-014", "start": 604.89, "end": 605.51, "text": "It's a cycle.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-015", "start": 606.15, "end": 608.13, "text": "Okay, so for most of human history,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-016", "start": 608.87, "end": 613.31, "text": "most people have understood the movement of the world as a cycle.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-017", "start": 613.65, "end": 615.61, "text": "This is certainly true in Chinese history,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-018", "start": 615.71, "end": 621.64, "text": "right? Dynasties rise because they have the mandate of heaven.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-019", "start": 622.52, "end": 623.76, "text": "Heaven favors them.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-020", "start": 624.44, "end": 625.14, "text": "And then they rise because they have the mandate of heaven.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-021", "start": 625.14, "end": 625.14, "text": "Heaven favors them.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-022", "start": 625.14, "end": 626.98, "text": "And then they do justice when they first arise.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-023", "start": 627.28, "end": 627.84, "text": "But over", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "2340a2efa5164d3a37a3edaca1cd60af5063b13fe7d1bc10ffffc6dd58b79513", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0008", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=564s", "time_label": "9:24", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0009", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "start": 627.84, "end": 727.88, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "time, for a variety of reasons, because of corruption, because there's a bad emperor, they lose the mandate of heaven, which allows a rebellion, which then creates a new dynasty. So Chinese history is almost a continuous cycle of dynastic rise and decline. Okay, now, in the Western context, there's also a cycle. There are many different cycles. But let me explain. One cycle that we've noticed in the Greek and Roman world. The cycle is this. There are three major factions in a society. There is the people, there is nobility, and then there is the king, or a great person. Okay? And each of these factions have a particular strength. The people, their strength comes from their numbers. Right? They have mass. The nobility is only minority of people, but they have authority. They are respected, because they know more. They are better at war than ordinary people. But they have authority, okay? People respect them. And the king has the army.", "word_count": 164, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-001", "start": 627.84, "end": 630.26, "text": "time, for a variety of reasons,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-002", "start": 630.26, "end": 633.3, "text": "because of corruption, because there's a bad emperor,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-003", "start": 634.14, "end": 636, "text": "they lose the mandate of heaven,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-004", "start": 636.14, "end": 641.98, "text": "which allows a rebellion, which then creates a new dynasty.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-005", "start": 642.59, "end": 648.56, "text": "So Chinese history is almost a continuous cycle of dynastic rise and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-006", "start": 648.56, "end": 653.32, "text": "decline. Okay, now, in the Western context,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-007", "start": 653.68, "end": 655.18, "text": "there's also a cycle.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-008", "start": 655.32, "end": 656.12, "text": "There are many different cycles.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-009", "start": 656.24, "end": 656.94, "text": "But let me explain.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-010", "start": 657.22, "end": 662.06, "text": "One cycle that we've noticed in the Greek and Roman world.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-011", "start": 663.69, "end": 664.83, "text": "The cycle is this.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-012", "start": 665.2, "end": 670.84, "text": "There are three major factions in a society.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-013", "start": 671.7, "end": 677.74, "text": "There is the people, there is nobility,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-014", "start": 677.98, "end": 680.93, "text": "and then there is the king,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-015", "start": 680.95, "end": 683.01, "text": "or a great person.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-016", "start": 683.75, "end": 689.09, "text": "Okay? And each of these factions have a particular strength.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-017", "start": 690.24, "end": 694.92, "text": "The people, their strength comes from their numbers.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-018", "start": 695.71, "end": 697.89, "text": "Right? They have mass.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-019", "start": 700.93, "end": 704.57, "text": "The nobility is only minority of people,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-020", "start": 704.69, "end": 706.87, "text": "but they have authority.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-021", "start": 709.56, "end": 716.58, "text": "They are respected, because they know more.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-022", "start": 716.86, "end": 721.26, "text": "They are better at war than ordinary people.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-023", "start": 721.46, "end": 722.48, "text": "But they have authority, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-024", "start": 722.54, "end": 723.34, "text": "People respect them.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-025", "start": 724.09, "end": 724.57, "text": "And the", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-026", "start": 724.57, "end": 727.88, "text": "king has the army.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "f79a9ccfb4087804451cc8c0ae3e1ad219aec740a0b9306ceb210f1ccdfe9678", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0009", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=627s", "time_label": "10:27", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0010", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "start": 729.35, "end": 803.29, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? so these are the three major forces or factions in a society and these three factions are always in conflict and what happens is a changing alliance where the two of the three get together to beat one okay and then this forces a new alliance right so what happens is this you first have something called a oligarchy where the nobility is in charge and everyone has to do what they do what what they command okay but over time this oligarchy becomes corrupt and the way and the the way they become corrupt is by exploiting people for debt all right so in an ability the nobles own the land you have to work the land but you get a share and that's fine you get a share and that's fine but sometimes the weather is bad so you can't work the land you can't pay me the rent so I give you", "word_count": 156, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-001", "start": 729.35, "end": 735.33, "text": "Okay? so these are the three major forces or factions in a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-002", "start": 735.33, "end": 743.72, "text": "society and these three factions are always in conflict and what happens", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-003", "start": 743.72, "end": 749.77, "text": "is a changing alliance where the two of the three get together", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-004", "start": 749.77, "end": 756.39, "text": "to beat one okay and then this forces a new alliance right", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": 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share and that's fine you get a share and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-012", "start": 793.94, "end": 799.37, "text": "that's fine but sometimes the weather is bad so you can't work", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-013", "start": 799.59, "end": 803.29, "text": "the land you can't pay me the rent so I give you", "word_count": 12 } ], "text_sha256": "3a34237a0d22f14fa59a6bd2f783c69a58c421ebe80c88bb99fb090b8b3ef0af", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0010", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=729s", "time_label": "12:09", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0011", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "start": 803.29, "end": 864.02, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "a loan and over time this loan becomes a debt and at a certain point you can't pay off the debt so what happens you become my slave and your children become my slave as well okay so this creates a lot of conflict in society how is this conflict resolved because one of nobility is the nobility and the other is the nobility and the other is the nobility wants to be king and he sees an opportunity in the civil conflict between the people and the nobility okay so he tells the people if you make me king I will clear your debts and this creates a monarchy and the first king is usually a good king because you have to work hard to obtain his position and people love him for the fact that he cleared his debts and he's a good king because he has to work hard to obtain his position and people love him", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-001", "start": 803.29, "end": 810.33, "text": "a loan and over time this loan becomes a debt and at", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-002", "start": 810.33, "end": 813.29, "text": "a certain point you can't pay off the debt so what happens", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-003", "start": 813.29, "end": 817.8, "text": "you become my slave and your children become my slave as well", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-004", "start": 817.8, "end": 822.89, "text": "okay so this creates a lot of conflict in society how is", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-005", "start": 822.89, "end": 827.01, "text": "this conflict resolved because one of nobility is the nobility and the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-006", "start": 827.01, "end": 828.26, "text": "other is the nobility and the other is the nobility wants to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-007", "start": 828.26, "end": 833.46, "text": "be king and he sees an opportunity in the civil conflict between", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-008", "start": 833.46, "end": 840.17, "text": "the people and the nobility okay so he tells the people if", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-009", "start": 840.17, 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"/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0011", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=803s", "time_label": "13:23", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0012", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "start": 864.02, "end": 927.84, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "for the fact that he cleared away their debts this this is what we call jubilee by the way the word is jubilee and this happens a lot in human history but the problem is the king has a son who's not so good and then the son has a son who's awful okay and so the nobility get angry the people get angry and the rebel and they create a democracy okay but then in the democracy because what happened is they in a democracy is it's the best people or the best speakers the wealthiest people who control the votes and so they get together and what do they do they and what do they do they create an Arlarchy okay you see how the cycle works the cycle goes on and on and on these three factions always in conflict with each other and they're and and the way they form alliances creates a certain form of", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-001", "start": 864.02, "end": 866.57, "text": "for the fact that he cleared away their debts this this is", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-002", "start": 866.57, "end": 869.31, "text": "what we call jubilee by the way the word is jubilee and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-003", "start": 869.31, "end": 874.08, "text": "this happens a lot in human history but the problem is the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-004", "start": 874.08, "end": 878.61, "text": "king has a son who's not so good and then the son", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-005", "start": 878.61, "end": 884.28, "text": "has a son who's awful okay and so the nobility get angry", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-006", "start": 884.28, "end": 889.56, "text": "the people get angry and the rebel and they create a democracy", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-007", "start": 889.56, "end": 898.34, "text": "okay but then in the democracy because what happened is they in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-008", "start": 898.34, "end": 903.34, "text": "a democracy is it's the best people or the best speakers the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-009", "start": 903.34, "end": 908.95, "text": "wealthiest people who control the votes and so they get together and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-010", "start": 908.95, "end": 911.27, "text": "what do they do they and what do they do they create", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-011", "start": 911.27, "end": 916.12, "text": "an Arlarchy okay you see how the cycle works the cycle goes", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-012", "start": 916.12, "end": 922.14, "text": "on and on and on these three factions always in conflict with", 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nobility and the people work together create a democracy okay and you can see the cycle happening today United States as well right because who is Trump Trump is a king does that make sense to you guys what is king what what is Trump Trump is a king does that make sense to you guys what is king what is Trump saying Trump is saying to the people the elite are corrupt the elite are stealing from you the elite are lying to you vote for me and I will destroy the elite and I will give you more economic opportunities okay do you understand so this is a really important idea Trump is not only president for four years", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-001", "start": 927.84, "end": 935.12, "text": "government okay when the nobility is in charge in an Arlarchy when", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-002", "start": 935.12, "end": 939.38, "text": "but then a king and the people work together or throw in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-003", 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"/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0013", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=927s", "time_label": "15:27", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0014", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "start": 981.25, "end": 1023.65, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history four years his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history so that's idea of a cycle right we also have so that's idea of a cycle right we also have another model of human history another model of human history of human historical development which is a line of human historical development which is a line okay a line the idea of progress okay a line the idea of progress towards truth okay so that's the other towards truth okay so that's the other competing model okay there are two main competing model okay there are two main models there's a cycle and then there's models there's a cycle and then there's a line and the idea of a line is human a line and the idea of a line is human society does not go on and", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-001", "start": 981.25, "end": 986.7, "text": "his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-002", "start": 986.7, "end": 991.38, "text": "throughout human history four years his ambition is to be king okay", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-003", "start": 991.38, "end": 992.28, "text": "and we see the cycle throughout human history so that's idea of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-004", "start": 992.28, "end": 998.55, "text": "a cycle right we also have so that's idea of a cycle", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-005", "start": 998.55, "end": 1001.23, "text": "right we also have another model of human history another model of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": 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"transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0015", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=1023s", "time_label": "17:03", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0016", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "start": 1105.56, "end": 1171.25, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "wars that will eventually lead to the rise of Augustus Caesar and this will create something called the Pax Romana and this is the end of history this is where all movement ends because once you achieve the Pax Romana there'll be no more war okay so the idea of a lie obviously this is not true but back then when they came up with this history they thought it was true and if you know a little bit about current history then you know about a man named Francis Fukuyama who's an American who works for the government and he was something called the end of history which is an In an essay arguing that when the Soviet Union fell, it 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Everyone should try to be a liberal consumer democracy, including China. And if everyone became a consumer liberal democracy, there will be no more war. We won't want to fight because we're too busy spending money. And the best way to make money is through trade, not war. We now also know this is not true. But the main proponents of the line theory of history, progress of history, are actually Christians. Why? Because they believe that Jesus marks a turning point in history. And when Jesus came, it marked a progress towards truth. What is truth? Truth is the second coming of Jesus, which will mark the end of the world. When Jesus returns, he will usher in a millennium, a thousand years of peace. When he will be king, we will all have to obey him. 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Believe it or not, but there are millions of Christians, they're called Christian Zionists by the way, who want war in the Middle East. Because if there's war in the Middle East, and the world is about to end, Jesus has to return from heaven to save us. Okay? You think this is silly, you think this is crazy, but I'm telling you right now, this idea, which millions of people around the world believe in, it's one of the main causes of the war in the Middle East. And guys, crazy as it may sound, it's not true. Crazy ideas make crazy events. Alright? So there are people who literally believe that we can save the world by ending it. It's only the threat of nuclear holocaust, it's only the threat of the end of Israel that will force Jesus to return, issuing the second coming.", "word_count": 172, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-001", "start": 1250.56, "end": 1256.76, "text": "is that this idea, it sounds like a simple idea,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-002", "start": 1257, "end": 1260.84, "text": "but this idea is what's driving a lot of the conflict in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-003", "start": 1260.84, "end": 1261.24, "text": "the Middle East.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-004", "start": 1262.08, "end": 1264.84, "text": "Believe it or not, but there are millions of Christians,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-005", "start": 1265.02, "end": 1266.42, "text": "they're called Christian Zionists by the way,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-006", "start": 1266.56, "end": 1269.1, "text": "who want war in the Middle East.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-007", "start": 1269.1, "end": 1273.01, "text": "Because if there's war in the Middle East,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-008", "start": 1273.17, "end": 1275.45, "text": "and the world is about to end,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-009", "start": 1276.42, "end": 1281.18, "text": "Jesus has to return from heaven to save us.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-010", "start": 1282.27, "end": 1285.15, "text": "Okay? You think this is silly,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-011", "start": 1285.29, "end": 1286.53, "text": "you think this is crazy,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-012", "start": 1286.75, "end": 1287.91, "text": "but I'm telling you right now,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-013", "start": 1288.17, "end": 1293.19, "text": "this idea, which millions of people around the world believe in,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-014", "start": 1293.35, "end": 1297.55, "text": "it's one of the main causes of the war in the Middle", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-015", "start": 1297.55, "end": 1300.97, "text": "East. And guys, crazy as it may sound,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-016", "start": 1300.97, "end": 1300.97, "text": "it's not true.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-017", "start": 1300.99, "end": 1303.81, "text": "Crazy ideas make crazy events.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-018", "start": 1304.72, "end": 1310.24, "text": "Alright? So there are people who literally believe that we can save", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-019", "start": 1310.24, "end": 1311.92, "text": "the world by ending it.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-020", "start": 1315.62, "end": 1317.76, "text": "It's only the threat of nuclear holocaust,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-021", "start": 1317.96, "end": 1320.4, "text": "it's only the threat of the end", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-022", "start": 1320.4, "end": 1323.18, "text": "of Israel that will force Jesus to return,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-023", "start": 1323.48, "end": 1324.7, "text": "issuing the second coming.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "a7b5b295c41674c7cab196272d8837e22dd23efe07f50f079281f39a4933369e", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0018", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=1250s", "time_label": "20:50", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0019", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "start": 1325.36, "end": 1398.988, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Alright? Now, what's important for us to understand is that these are the two basic frameworks of history. But there are variations to these two basic models. Okay? So for example, Hegel. We'll discuss Friedrich Hegel later on in the semester. He's really important. But he has this idea called the dialectic. The dialectic just means a conflict, a conversation. So what he believes is that history is driven by ideas that are in conflict with each other. Okay? Wherever there's an idea, for example, let's just say you have capitalism. Then what will happen is a new idea will arrive to challenge the existing idea we'll call communism. And then what will happen is these two ideas will merge together and they will draw on the best parts of each other and we can call this socialism. Alright? So it's a line. Okay?", "word_count": 144, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-001", "start": 1325.36, "end": 1330.5, "text": "Alright? Now, what's important for us to understand is that these are", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-002", "start": 1330.5, "end": 1333.6, "text": "the two basic frameworks of history.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-003", "start": 1333.6, "end": 1339.25, "text": "But there are variations to these two basic models.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-004", "start": 1339.49, "end": 1341.81, "text": "Okay? So for example, Hegel.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-005", "start": 1342.25, "end": 1345.39, "text": "We'll discuss Friedrich Hegel later on in the semester.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-006", "start": 1345.53, "end": 1346.45, "text": "He's really important.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-007", "start": 1346.89, "end": 1349.53, "text": "But he has this idea called the dialectic.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-008", "start": 1353.31, "end": 1357.03, "text": "The dialectic just means a conflict,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-009", "start": 1357.17, "end": 1357.85, "text": "a conversation.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-010", "start": 1358.25, "end": 1364.05, "text": "So what he believes is that history is driven by ideas that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-011", "start": 1364.05, "end": 1365.91, "text": "are in conflict with each other.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-012", "start": 1367.28, "end": 1369, "text": "Okay? Wherever there's an idea,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-013", "start": 1369.3, "end": 1371.56, "text": "for example, let's just say you have capitalism.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-014", "start": 1372.42, "end": 1378.74, "text": "Then what will happen is a new idea will arrive to challenge", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-015", "start": 1378.74, "end": 1381.46, "text": "the existing idea we'll call communism.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-016", "start": 1382.28, "end": 1387.46, "text": "And then what will happen is these two ideas will merge together", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-017", "start": 1387.46, "end": 1392.14, "text": "and they will draw on the best parts of each other and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-018", "start": 1392.14, "end": 1393.02, "text": "we can call this socialism.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-019", "start": 1396.18, "end": 1398.48, "text": "Alright? So it's a line.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-020", "start": 1398.66, "end": 1398.988, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "76321e028924c20aad52e9d2246f0651407766d6bffcc3b78d11755987002b89", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0019", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=1325s", "time_label": "22:05", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0020", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "start": 1398.988, "end": 1481.27, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "But it's like this almost. Right? There's an idea, something comes into conflict and this leads to a new idea which then leads to a new idea. Okay? But he still believes that we are progressing towards the truth through this conflict. Alright? So we'll discuss Hegel and his theory of the dialectic later on in the semester. And this will lead, the idea of the dialectic will lead to, of course, Marxism. Okay? So Marx is drawing a lot on Hegel and another philosopher named Immanuel Kant. For his theory of communism. But we'll do that later on in the semester. Alright? So these are the two main models of historical development. You have the cycle, the circle, or you have the line. You either believe that things move in continuous motion or they're moving towards an end. Okay? Does that make sense? Any questions about these two models so far? Okay. So what you will learn this semester is a new model of historical development.", "word_count": 167, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-001", "start": 1398.988, "end": 1400.9, "text": "But it's like this almost. Right?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-002", "start": 1402.38, "end": 1406.34, "text": "There's an idea, something comes into conflict and this leads to a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-003", "start": 1406.34, "end": 1407.96, "text": "new idea which then leads to a new idea.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-004", "start": 1408.08, "end": 1411.7, "text": "Okay? But he still believes that we are progressing towards the truth", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-005", "start": 1411.7, "end": 1413.06, "text": "through this conflict.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-006", "start": 1416.46, "end": 1423.57, "text": "Alright? So we'll discuss Hegel and his theory of the dialectic later", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-007", "start": 1423.57, "end": 1424.13, "text": "on in the semester.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-008", "start": 1424.35, "end": 1427.09, "text": "And this will lead, the idea of the dialectic will lead to,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-009", "start": 1427.15, "end": 1428.43, "text": "of course, Marxism.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-010", "start": 1428.67, "end": 1432.87, "text": "Okay? So Marx is drawing a lot on Hegel and another philosopher", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-011", "start": 1432.87, "end": 1434.39, "text": "named Immanuel Kant.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-012", "start": 1434.39, "end": 1436.01, "text": "For his theory of communism.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-013", "start": 1436.27, "end": 1438.93, "text": "But we'll do that later on in the semester.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-014", "start": 1439.55, "end": 1445.64, "text": "Alright? So these are the two main models of historical development.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-015", "start": 1445.94, "end": 1447.5, "text": "You have the cycle, the circle,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-016", "start": 1447.82, "end": 1448.66, "text": "or you have the line.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-017", "start": 1450.12, "end": 1457.39, "text": "You either believe that things move in continuous motion or they're moving", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-018", "start": 1457.39, "end": 1458.65, "text": "towards an end.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-019", "start": 1460.34, "end": 1461.46, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-020", "start": 1461.88, "end": 1464.96, "text": "Any questions about these two models so far?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-021", "start": 1472.99, "end": 1479.33, "text": "Okay. So what you will learn this semester is a new model", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-022", "start": 1479.33, "end": 1481.27, "text": "of historical development.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "afc167bad82d912c788aa14d8231235790605fd04eef9c22ae0d848bfb1bffd5", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0020", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=1398s", "time_label": "23:18", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0021", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "start": 1482.29, "end": 1568.5, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? It's a much more complicated model than these two models. But I think it is much more useful in helping us predict the causes of historical development. Okay? I want to argue why these two models don't really work. And it has to do with the fact that history as an economic discipline is just not very good. It is not. What I mean by that is you look at the world today. There's this Trump presidency. There's this conflict in the Ukraine. There's the Middle East conflict. And you would expect historians to come out and say, oh, this has happened before. And we can then predict what will happen. And so this is what's going to happen. Okay? But guess what, guys? They're not doing that. Also, they're not very good at predicting things. They're just not. History is notorious for not being able to tell us much about the future. And historians say, well, it's because we look at the past.", "word_count": 165, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-001", "start": 1482.29, "end": 1486.43, "text": "Okay? It's a much more complicated model than these two models.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-002", "start": 1486.75, "end": 1491.73, "text": "But I think it is much more useful in helping us predict", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-003", "start": 1491.73, "end": 1498.61, "text": "the causes of historical development.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-004", "start": 1499.1, "end": 1511.41, "text": "Okay? I want to argue why these two models don't really work.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-005", "start": 1511.43, "end": 1519.2, "text": "And it has to do with the fact that history as an", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-006", "start": 1519.2, "end": 1522.14, "text": "economic discipline is just not very good.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-007", "start": 1522.56, "end": 1523.34, "text": "It is not.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-008", "start": 1524.36, "end": 1528.58, "text": "What I mean by that is you look at the world today.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-009", "start": 1528.8, "end": 1530.38, "text": "There's this Trump presidency.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-010", "start": 1531.61, "end": 1533.01, "text": "There's this conflict in the Ukraine.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-011", "start": 1533.93, "end": 1535.79, "text": "There's the Middle East conflict.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-012", "start": 1536.41, "end": 1540.41, "text": "And you would expect historians to come out and say,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-013", "start": 1540.57, "end": 1542.59, "text": "oh, this has happened before.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-014", "start": 1542.59, "end": 1545.85, "text": "And we can then predict what will happen.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-015", "start": 1545.97, "end": 1547.39, "text": "And so this is what's going to happen.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-016", "start": 1547.49, "end": 1549.31, "text": "Okay? But guess what, guys?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-017", "start": 1549.55, "end": 1550.83, "text": "They're not doing that.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-018", "start": 1552.65, "end": 1555.28, "text": "Also, they're not very good at predicting things.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-019", "start": 1555.42, "end": 1555.96, "text": "They're just not.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-020", "start": 1558.05, "end": 1564.73, "text": "History is notorious for not being able to tell us much about", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-021", "start": 1564.73, "end": 1565.33, "text": "the future.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-022", "start": 1566.36, "end": 1567.24, "text": "And historians say,", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-023", "start": 1567.3, "end": 1568.5, "text": "well, it's because we look at the past.", "word_count": 8 } ], "text_sha256": "5238bf09ebb35b816aff16c8ba844e621737f6e54fbfc8ba0b8f33dfc7ca0723", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0021", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=1482s", "time_label": "24:42", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0022", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "start": 1570.39, "end": 1635.17, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And for me, this is frustrating because if the history is any good, if the history is accurate, then it should help us predict the future. Or at least better understand the present. Okay? So the idea of truth. What is truth? Well, truth does two things. First, it explains. Why did this happen? When did World War II start? And the answer we have today is like, Hitler was a bad guy. He was evil. Okay? That doesn't explain much for us. And then it also has to predict. It predicts. If it's truthful, then it predicts. And history doesn't do that. So I want to fix this problem by introducing a new model of history, which is a lot more complicated. Okay? I'll be honest with you. It's a lot more complicated. But I think for our purposes, it's more useful at explaining why things happen the way they do.", "word_count": 152, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-001", "start": 1570.39, "end": 1574.25, "text": "And for me, this is frustrating because if the history is any", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-002", "start": 1574.25, "end": 1575.91, "text": "good, if the history is accurate,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-003", "start": 1576.35, "end": 1579.8, "text": "then it should help us predict the future.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-004", "start": 1579.96, "end": 1582.26, "text": "Or at least better understand the present.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-005", "start": 1582.52, "end": 1584.32, "text": "Okay? So the idea of truth.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-006", "start": 1584.46, "end": 1584.88, "text": "What is truth?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-007", "start": 1586.12, "end": 1588.38, "text": "Well, truth does two things.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-008", "start": 1588.54, "end": 1589.42, "text": "First, it explains.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-009", "start": 1591.59, "end": 1592.73, "text": "Why did this happen?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-010", "start": 1593.03, "end": 1594.41, "text": "When did World War II start?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-011", "start": 1595.49, "end": 1599.18, "text": "And the answer we have today is like,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-012", "start": 1599.26, "end": 1600.28, "text": "Hitler was a bad guy.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-013", "start": 1600.42, "end": 1601.12, "text": "He was evil.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-014", "start": 1602.02, "end": 1604.46, "text": "Okay? That doesn't explain much for us.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-015", "start": 1605.76, "end": 1607.68, "text": "And then it also has to predict.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-016", "start": 1608.42, "end": 1609.42, "text": "It predicts.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-017", "start": 1609.76, "end": 1612.02, "text": "If it's truthful, then it predicts.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-018", "start": 1612.22, "end": 1613.58, "text": "And history doesn't do that.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-019", "start": 1617.2, "end": 1621.67, "text": "So I want to fix this problem by introducing a new model", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-020", "start": 1621.67, "end": 1624.29, "text": "of history, which is a lot more complicated.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-021", "start": 1624.49, "end": 1625.73, "text": "Okay? I'll be honest with you.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-022", "start": 1625.77, "end": 1626.81, "text": "It's a lot more complicated.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-023", "start": 1627.07, "end": 1628.61, "text": "But I think for our purposes,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-024", "start": 1628.69, "end": 1635.17, "text": "it's more useful at explaining why things happen the way they do.", "word_count": 12 } ], "text_sha256": "d126788953f4cada5a2fda59f31f4d45c3724cffa4a840a2f937fe42e426a741", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0022", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=1570s", "time_label": "26:10", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0023", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "start": 1635.7, "end": 1711.878, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And it helps us also predict what will happen. Okay? And this model is what I call the oceanic currents of history. Imagine the world as a huge ocean. And within each ocean, there's an ecosystem, which has currents. And then these currents come into conflict with each other, which leads to a new development. Okay? So think about hurricanes. And the thing that's really important about this model that I'm going to show you, what I'm proposing is there's no moral judgment in it. Okay? I mean, obviously in the line, the end where we're going is good and where we're at now is bad. But what I'm saying is this moral judgment saying this is good, this is bad, it's not helpful. It doesn't really tell us anything. All right? Okay. I'm much more interested in explaining why this happened, how this happened, and where this is going. Okay. So let's look at the world to understand this theory.", "word_count": 161, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-001", "start": 1635.7, "end": 1640.86, "text": "And it helps us also predict what will happen.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-002", "start": 1640.88, "end": 1648.59, "text": "Okay? And this model is what I call the oceanic currents of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-003", "start": 1648.59, "end": 1653.33, "text": "history. Imagine the world as a huge ocean.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-004", "start": 1654.11, "end": 1656.91, "text": "And within each ocean, there's an ecosystem,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-005", "start": 1657.21, "end": 1658.9, "text": "which has currents.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-006", "start": 1659.94, "end": 1663.48, "text": "And then these currents come into conflict with each other,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-007", "start": 1664.15, "end": 1666.35, "text": "which leads to a new development.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-008", "start": 1666.75, "end": 1668.43, "text": "Okay? So think about hurricanes.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-009", "start": 1670.15, "end": 1674.83, "text": "And the thing that's really important about this model that I'm going", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-010", "start": 1674.83, "end": 1679.63, "text": "to show you, what I'm proposing is there's no moral judgment in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-011", "start": 1679.63, "end": 1681.57, "text": "it. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-012", "start": 1681.75, "end": 1684.15, "text": "I mean, obviously in the line,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-013", "start": 1684.23, "end": 1688.31, "text": "the end where we're going is good and where we're at now", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-014", "start": 1688.31, "end": 1688.87, "text": "is bad.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-015", "start": 1689.61, "end": 1694.27, "text": "But what I'm saying is this moral judgment saying this is good,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-016", "start": 1694.31, "end": 1695.89, "text": "this is bad, it's not helpful.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-017", "start": 1696.21, "end": 1697.79, "text": "It doesn't really tell us anything.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-018", "start": 1698.94, "end": 1699.7, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-019", "start": 1700.69, "end": 1704.43, "text": "Okay. I'm much more interested in explaining why this happened,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-020", "start": 1704.53, "end": 1706.31, "text": "how this happened, and where this is going.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-021", "start": 1707.13, "end": 1711.45, "text": "Okay. So let's look at the world to understand this", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-022", "start": 1711.45, "end": 1711.878, "text": "theory.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "4c015d14f02a12324c6319c0e8974283978628dabf1acb4ec6e993f6103a29e0", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0023", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=1635s", "time_label": "27:15", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0024", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "start": 1711.878, "end": 1794.43, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "What I want to show you is the world is divided into cultural ecosystems. Cultural ecosystems. This is a really important idea you need to know for the rest of the semester. What I will argue is that culture is the meta -reality. Meta -reality. So what's meta -reality? Meta -reality is the understanding of the world from which all other understandings derive. So what I'm saying is that culture is the most important part of who you are. Much more important than your gender. Much more important than your race, your ethnicity. Much more important than your economic demographic. Okay? Your rich, your poor. Okay? So to understand this idea, why culture is so important, I will do a thought experiment. Okay? A thought experiment. And the thought experiment is this. Let's take a random guy from China 2,000 years ago. Okay? Just a random guy. We'll take him off the streets and we'll put him into China today.", "word_count": 161, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-001", "start": 1711.878, "end": 1716.58, "text": "What I want to show you is the world is divided", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-002", "start": 1716.58, "end": 1718.54, "text": "into cultural ecosystems.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-003", "start": 1719.54, "end": 1720.74, "text": "Cultural ecosystems.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-004", "start": 1721.59, "end": 1723.99, "text": "This is a really important idea you need to know for the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-005", "start": 1723.99, "end": 1724.45, "text": "rest of the semester.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-006", "start": 1727.56, "end": 1733.94, "text": "What I will argue is that culture is the meta -reality.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-007", "start": 1735.62, "end": 1736.68, "text": "Meta -reality.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-008", "start": 1739.53, "end": 1741.75, "text": "So what's meta -reality?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-009", "start": 1741.83, "end": 1747.09, "text": "Meta -reality is the understanding of the world from which all other", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-010", "start": 1747.09, "end": 1748.45, "text": "understandings derive.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-011", "start": 1749.34, "end": 1754.56, "text": "So what I'm saying is that culture is the most important part", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-012", "start": 1754.56, "end": 1755.58, "text": "of who you are.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-013", "start": 1756, "end": 1758.68, "text": "Much more important than your gender.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-014", "start": 1759.12, "end": 1762.66, "text": "Much more important than your race,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-015", "start": 1762.9, "end": 1763.98, "text": "your ethnicity.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-016", "start": 1764.48, "end": 1770.1, "text": "Much more important than your economic demographic.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-017", "start": 1770.36, "end": 1771.64, "text": "Okay? Your rich, your poor.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-018", "start": 1772.4, "end": 1774.96, "text": "Okay? So to understand this idea,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-019", "start": 1775.16, "end": 1776.48, "text": "why culture is so important,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-020", "start": 1777, "end": 1779, "text": "I will do a thought experiment.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-021", "start": 1780.62, "end": 1781.88, "text": "Okay? A thought experiment.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-022", "start": 1782.18, "end": 1783.14, "text": "And the thought experiment is this.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-023", "start": 1784.24, "end": 1788.99, "text": "Let's take a random guy from China 2,000 years ago.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-024", "start": 1789.11, "end": 1790.01, "text": "Okay? Just a random guy.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-025", "start": 1790.19, "end": 1793.91, "text": "We'll take him off the streets and we'll put him into", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-026", "start": 1793.91, "end": 1794.43, "text": "China today.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "228514f28b6fc31ddf0b64670ab3dcda9412027e4efbfac59eefab600ee8e1f0", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0024", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=1711s", "time_label": "28:31", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0025", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "start": 1795.64, "end": 1858.69, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "All right? Now, in 2,000 years, China has changed a lot. Right? We now have the Internet. We have computers. We have cell phones. We have skyscrapers. We have cars. We have roads. Okay? So China has changed a lot in these 2,000 years. How long would it take for him to adapt to the new China? And I would say, I would say at most 5 to 10 years. Because even though on the surface China has changed a lot, deep down inside, China's culture has stayed consistent for the past 3 to 4,000 years. So he would understand how to make friends. He would understand, if he were to get a job, how to associate with his boss and his colleagues. If he were to get married, he would know how to raise his children to have them succeed in China. Okay? Does that make sense to you guys? It would take him", "word_count": 158, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-001", "start": 1795.64, "end": 1796.24, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-002", "start": 1797.8, "end": 1799.86, "text": "Now, in 2,000 years,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-003", "start": 1799.98, "end": 1801.4, "text": "China has changed a lot.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-004", "start": 1801.8, "end": 1803.98, "text": "Right? We now have the Internet.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-005", "start": 1804.3, "end": 1805.16, "text": "We have computers.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-006", "start": 1805.16, "end": 1807.44, "text": "We have cell phones.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-007", "start": 1807.62, "end": 1808.36, "text": "We have skyscrapers.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-008", "start": 1808.72, "end": 1809.34, "text": "We have cars.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-009", "start": 1809.74, "end": 1810.68, "text": "We have roads.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-010", "start": 1810.9, "end": 1813.08, "text": "Okay? So China has changed a lot in these 2,000 years.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-011", "start": 1815.74, "end": 1819.14, "text": "How long would it take for him to adapt to the new", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-012", "start": 1819.14, "end": 1822.68, "text": "China? And I would say,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-013", "start": 1822.68, "end": 1824.42, "text": "I would say at most 5 to 10 years.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-014", "start": 1825.68, "end": 1830.14, "text": "Because even though on the surface China has changed a lot,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-015", "start": 1830.92, "end": 1836.56, "text": "deep down inside, China's culture has stayed consistent for the past 3", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-016", "start": 1836.56, "end": 1837.24, "text": "to 4,000 years.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-017", "start": 1838.02, "end": 1840.46, "text": "So he would understand how to make friends.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-018", "start": 1840.94, "end": 1843.48, "text": "He would understand, if he were to get a job,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-019", "start": 1843.7, "end": 1848.69, "text": "how to associate with his boss and his colleagues.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-020", "start": 1849.45, "end": 1851.59, "text": "If he were to get married,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-021", "start": 1852.09, "end": 1855.21, "text": "he would know how to raise his children to have them succeed", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-022", "start": 1855.21, "end": 1855.65, "text": "in China.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-023", "start": 1855.83, "end": 1856.73, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense to you guys?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-024", "start": 1858.01, "end": 1858.69, "text": "It would take him", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "15d4a370ad3fcbb0e36d4e45fff895131c55f3ce7a61c8a423ea7c98472b5eb9", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0025", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=1795s", "time_label": "29:55", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0026", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "start": 1858.69, "end": 1928.27, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "time to learn how to use a cell phone and how to use a computer and how to drive a car, but he can do so. Does that make sense? Now, let's do another experiment. Let's take a random guy from China today and put him in Germany today. Germany. Okay? What I will argue is this. He will never, ever be able to adapt to the culture. He may get a job as a pizza delivery man. Who knows? Okay? But he will never, ever make friends who are German. He won't find a German wife. Whatever job he does, he won't know how to succeed. He won't know what to say to his boss. He won't know how to associate with his boss. Okay? Does that make sense? This is a guy who knows the internet, who knows how to drive a car, who can speak English, but because of the culture, he's always a stranger. Does that make sense?", "word_count": 162, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-001", "start": 1858.69, "end": 1861.53, "text": "time to learn how to use a cell phone and how to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-002", "start": 1861.53, "end": 1864.57, "text": "use a computer and how to drive a car,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-003", "start": 1864.75, "end": 1866.63, "text": "but he can do so.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-004", "start": 1867.71, "end": 1868.43, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-005", "start": 1868.43, "end": 1871.96, "text": "Now, let's do another experiment.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-006", "start": 1872.64, "end": 1876.98, "text": "Let's take a random guy from China today and put him in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-007", "start": 1876.98, "end": 1878.62, "text": "Germany today.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-008", "start": 1879.34, "end": 1880.14, "text": "Germany. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-009", "start": 1881.36, "end": 1882.62, "text": "What I will argue is this.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-010", "start": 1883.04, "end": 1888.28, "text": "He will never, ever be able to adapt to the culture.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-011", "start": 1889.91, "end": 1892.77, "text": "He may get a job as a pizza delivery man.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-012", "start": 1892.91, "end": 1893.27, "text": "Who knows?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-013", "start": 1893.49, "end": 1895.21, "text": "Okay? But he will never,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-014", "start": 1895.23, "end": 1901.03, "text": "ever make friends who are German.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-015", "start": 1901.81, "end": 1903.13, "text": "He won't find a German wife.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-016", "start": 1905.74, "end": 1908.32, "text": "Whatever job he does, he won't know how to succeed.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-017", "start": 1908.56, "end": 1910.91, "text": "He won't know what to say to his boss.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-018", "start": 1911.31, "end": 1915.98, "text": "He won't know how to associate with his boss.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-019", "start": 1916.22, "end": 1916.88, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-020", "start": 1918, "end": 1920.2, "text": "This is a guy who knows the internet,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-021", "start": 1920.4, "end": 1921.32, "text": "who knows how to drive a car,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-022", "start": 1921.5, "end": 1924.62, "text": "who can speak English, but because of the culture,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-023", "start": 1924.9, "end": 1926.72, "text": "he's always a stranger.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-024", "start": 1927.57, "end": 1928.03, "text": "Does that", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-025", "start": 1928.03, "end": 1928.27, "text": "make sense?", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "3764e0daab9173e99fa756d324e0ad633db5c535c100795105388cc9abf13854", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0026", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=1858s", "time_label": "30:58", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0027", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "start": 1929.3, "end": 2004.34, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "This thought experiment, I hope, shows you the persistence of culture. It's the most important part of who you are. It drives everything else. It drives how you see the world. It drives how you interact with others. Okay? So what matters is the culture and nothing else. What I want to show you is, this semester, is the world can be divided into cultural ecosystems because of the history, because of the geography, because of the demographics. Okay? Does that make sense? So, look. Europe is a great country. It has a great cultural ecosystem. All right? Meaning, someone from Germany can go to Italy and still feel at home. They don't speak the same language. The geography is different. But they share the same cultural orientation, the same cultural values. All right? Someone who lives in the Middle East. Okay? Well, someone called the Levant, Israel and other places. Okay? But basically the Middle East. That's also another cultural ecosystem.", "word_count": 162, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-001", "start": 1929.3, "end": 1931.32, "text": "This thought experiment, I hope,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-002", "start": 1931.34, "end": 1934.18, "text": "shows you the persistence of culture.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-003", "start": 1934.36, "end": 1936.84, "text": "It's the most important part of who you are.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-004", "start": 1936.84, "end": 1938.98, "text": "It drives everything else.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-005", "start": 1939.62, "end": 1941.26, "text": "It drives how you see the world.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-006", "start": 1941.44, "end": 1943.1, "text": "It drives how you interact with others.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-007", "start": 1945.31, "end": 1952.66, "text": "Okay? So what matters is the culture and nothing else.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-008", "start": 1953.41, "end": 1955.69, "text": "What I want to show you is,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-009", "start": 1955.89, "end": 1962.31, "text": "this semester, is the world can be divided into cultural ecosystems because", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-010", "start": 1962.31, "end": 1965.01, "text": "of the history, because of the geography,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-011", "start": 1965.25, "end": 1966.65, "text": "because of the demographics.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-012", "start": 1966.87, "end": 1967.43, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-013", "start": 1968.27, "end": 1969.31, "text": "So, look.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-014", "start": 1971, "end": 1972.97, "text": "Europe is a great country.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-015", "start": 1972.99, "end": 1973.71, "text": "It has a great cultural ecosystem.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-016", "start": 1975.17, "end": 1975.81, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-017", "start": 1975.83, "end": 1981.35, "text": "Meaning, someone from Germany can go to Italy and still feel at", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-018", "start": 1981.35, "end": 1984.57, "text": "home. They don't speak the same language.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-019", "start": 1985.19, "end": 1986.47, "text": "The geography is different.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-020", "start": 1986.65, "end": 1988.77, "text": "But they share the same cultural orientation,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-021", "start": 1989.11, "end": 1990.05, "text": "the same cultural values.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-022", "start": 1990.83, "end": 1991.51, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-023", "start": 1993.02, "end": 1996.22, "text": "Someone who lives in the Middle East.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-024", "start": 1996.32, "end": 1998.64, "text": "Okay? Well, someone called the Levant,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-025", "start": 1999.62, "end": 2001.6, "text": "Israel and other places.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-026", "start": 2001.72, "end": 2002.72, "text": "Okay? But basically the Middle East.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-027", "start": 2002.84, "end": 2003.22, "text": "That's", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-028", "start": 2003.22, "end": 2004.34, "text": "also another cultural ecosystem.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "423afab1b6872de73f13eac8f6f24e97225a755204c8d8e614ab65de3729ab79", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0027", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=1929s", "time_label": "32:09", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0028", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "start": 2007.34, "end": 2113.999, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And then you have the steppes. Okay? So remember the steppes are this grassland, this ocean of grassland that basically extends from Hungary to Mongolia. Okay? And then you have China, India. Okay? So there are these different ecosystems, cultural ecosystems, that are determined by their geography, their history, and the demographics. And culture is a response to geography, history, and demographics. Okay? Does that make sense? All right? Now, what I will show you is that within each ecosystem, they're always interacting with each other. Okay? They're always interacting with each other. And when they change, they change their interaction with each other. All right? So let's ask a really important question, which is why do empires, why do they fall, why do they decline, why do they fail? And this is a really important question. How was it possible for the Roman Empire to collapse? How were the Greeks able to defeat the Persian Empire?", "word_count": 157, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-001", "start": 2007.34, "end": 2013.61, "text": "And then you have the steppes.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-002", "start": 2016.43, "end": 2020.01, "text": "Okay? So remember the steppes are this grassland,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-003", "start": 2020.07, "end": 2024.21, "text": "this ocean of grassland that basically extends from Hungary to Mongolia.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-004", "start": 2024.37, "end": 2031.97, "text": "Okay? And then you have China,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-005", "start": 2032.5, "end": 2033.86, "text": "India. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-006", "start": 2034.04, "end": 2036.38, "text": "So there are these different ecosystems,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-007", "start": 2036.96, "end": 2040.26, "text": "cultural ecosystems, that are determined by their geography,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-008", "start": 2040.6, "end": 2043.12, "text": "their history, and the demographics.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-009", "start": 2043.12, "end": 2049.7, "text": "And culture is a response to geography,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-010", "start": 2049.98, "end": 2051.4, "text": "history, and demographics.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-011", "start": 2051.6, "end": 2052.3, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-012", "start": 2053.17, "end": 2053.83, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-013", "start": 2056.87, "end": 2065.34, "text": "Now, what I will show you is that within each ecosystem,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-014", "start": 2065.66, "end": 2070.1, "text": "they're always interacting with each other.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-015", "start": 2070.56, "end": 2072.8, "text": "Okay? They're always interacting with each other.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-016", "start": 2074.1, "end": 2080.04, "text": "And when they change, they change their interaction with each other.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-017", "start": 2080.14, "end": 2080.68, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-018", "start": 2080.68, "end": 2088.81, "text": "So let's ask a really important question,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-019", "start": 2088.95, "end": 2091.84, "text": "which is why do empires,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-020", "start": 2092.02, "end": 2097.35, "text": "why do they fall, why do they decline,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-021", "start": 2097.71, "end": 2098.65, "text": "why do they fail?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-022", "start": 2098.97, "end": 2100.55, "text": "And this is a really important question.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-023", "start": 2103.41, "end": 2107.61, "text": "How was it possible for the Roman Empire to collapse?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-024", "start": 2110.09, "end": 2113.6, "text": "How were the Greeks able to defeat the Persian", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-025", "start": 2113.6, "end": 2113.999, "text": "Empire?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "5e618e43528262cffe1f6c7e922e14d7c5a3dfca7dacadb6c4e1bff4b4410928", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0028", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=2007s", "time_label": "33:27", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0029", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "start": 2113.999, "end": 2196.19, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "How were the Mongolians and the Manchus able to conquer the Chinese Empire? All right? And what I will show you this semester is when this happens, when an empire is conquered, the pattern is the same. There's a consistent pattern in this. All right? So let me explain the pattern. And then for the semester, we'll go into specific instances of this pattern to explore the specifics. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. So what happens is this. Why empires fall is there's usually an empire. Okay? And as they expand, they encounter something called the borderlands. Okay? Borderlands. Borderlands are just places that are the intersections of empires. Okay? So Mongolia is the borderland of the Chinese Empire. Right? Arabia is the borderland of the Byzantine and the Sassanian Persian Empires. Okay? And the borderlands and the empire become one. They become at first symbiotic. Okay? Meaning they depend on each other. They work with each other.", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-001", "start": 2113.999, "end": 2118.39, "text": "How were the Mongolians and the Manchus able to conquer the", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-002", "start": 2118.39, "end": 2118.87, "text": "Chinese Empire?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-003", "start": 2121.04, "end": 2121.58, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-004", "start": 2121.58, "end": 2125.48, "text": "And what I will show you this semester is when this happens,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-005", "start": 2125.6, "end": 2126.64, "text": "when an empire is conquered,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-006", "start": 2127.9, "end": 2129.56, "text": "the pattern is the same.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-007", "start": 2130.06, "end": 2131.96, "text": "There's a consistent pattern in this.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-008", "start": 2132.68, "end": 2133.3, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-009", "start": 2134.2, "end": 2136.7, "text": "So let me explain the pattern.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-010", "start": 2136.9, "end": 2138.28, "text": "And then for the semester,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-011", "start": 2138.54, "end": 2144.74, "text": "we'll go into specific instances of this pattern to explore the specifics.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-012", "start": 2145.06, "end": 2145.84, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-013", "start": 2146.22, "end": 2146.82, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-014", "start": 2147.46, "end": 2148.6, "text": "So what happens is this.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-015", "start": 2148.68, "end": 2151.38, "text": "Why empires fall is there's usually an empire.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-016", "start": 2151.58, "end": 2156.26, "text": "Okay? And as they expand,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-017", "start": 2156.36, "end": 2158.6, "text": "they encounter something called the borderlands.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-018", "start": 2158.86, "end": 2159.96, "text": "Okay? Borderlands.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-019", "start": 2161.11, "end": 2166.81, "text": "Borderlands are just places that are the intersections of empires.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-020", "start": 2167.13, "end": 2169.87, "text": "Okay? So Mongolia is the borderland of the Chinese Empire.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-021", "start": 2170.19, "end": 2177.67, "text": "Right? Arabia is the borderland of the Byzantine and the Sassanian Persian", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-022", "start": 2177.67, "end": 2178.87, "text": "Empires. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-023", "start": 2179.61, "end": 2185.81, "text": "And the borderlands and the empire become one.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-024", "start": 2185.81, "end": 2188.05, "text": "They become at first symbiotic.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-025", "start": 2192.68, "end": 2194.46, "text": "Okay? Meaning they depend on each other.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-026", "start": 2194.64, "end": 2196.02, "text": "They work with each", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-027", "start": 2196.02, "end": 2196.19, "text": "other.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "3a82ff1f738686bfdbbb69cab97bc1cb945efb7832b9eefae11fe524d63f8566", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0029", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=2113s", "time_label": "35:13", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0030", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "start": 2196.19, "end": 2267.5, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? In three ways. The first and the first most simple way that they interact is through trade. Okay? They trade with each other. Second way they interact is through military cooperation. So what often happens is the empire needs mercenaries. And it turns out that people who live in the borderlands make very good soldiers. Okay? Because they live in a time of war and chaos. In the borderlands, there's no central authority. So they're always fighting each other. So they make very good soldiers. And then the third way they interact with each other is some people in the borderlands will raid and pillage the empire. The outskirts of the empire for resources. Okay? So they are interacting with each other. So the pattern is this. The borderlands first start off as maybe an isolated world. A region of the world. So Arabia, the steppes, and the Germanic north. Okay? What we call Scandinavia today. Okay?", "word_count": 158, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-001", "start": 2196.19, "end": 2196.36, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-002", "start": 2196.46, "end": 2197.34, "text": "In three ways.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-003", "start": 2198.13, "end": 2202.68, "text": "The first and the first most simple way that they interact is", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-004", "start": 2202.68, "end": 2203.48, "text": "through trade.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-005", "start": 2206.1, "end": 2207.68, "text": "Okay? They trade with each other.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-006", "start": 2208.53, "end": 2213.58, "text": "Second way they interact is through military cooperation.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-007", "start": 2213.94, "end": 2217.46, "text": "So what often happens is the empire needs mercenaries.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-008", "start": 2217.74, "end": 2220.86, "text": "And it turns out that people who live in the borderlands make", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-009", "start": 2220.86, "end": 2221.76, "text": "very good soldiers.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-010", "start": 2221.76, "end": 2225.28, "text": "Okay? Because they live in a time of war and chaos.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-011", "start": 2225.62, "end": 2227.54, "text": "In the borderlands, there's no central authority.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-012", "start": 2228.06, "end": 2229.44, "text": "So they're always fighting each other.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-013", "start": 2229.56, "end": 2230.78, "text": "So they make very good soldiers.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-014", "start": 2232.29, "end": 2236.01, "text": "And then the third way they interact with each other is some", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-015", "start": 2236.56, "end": 2240.48, "text": "people in the borderlands will raid and pillage the empire.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-016", "start": 2240.8, "end": 2242.5, "text": "The outskirts of the empire for resources.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-017", "start": 2242.76, "end": 2245.99, "text": "Okay? So they are interacting with each other.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-018", "start": 2248.6, "end": 2250.48, "text": "So the pattern is this.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-019", "start": 2251.74, "end": 2256.22, "text": "The borderlands first start off as maybe an isolated world.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-020", "start": 2256.22, "end": 2257.2, "text": "A region of the world.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-021", "start": 2257.38, "end": 2264.88, "text": "So Arabia, the steppes, and the Germanic north.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-022", "start": 2265.02, "end": 2266.86, "text": "Okay? What we call Scandinavia today.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-023", "start": 2267.02, "end": 2267.5, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "e6ea424f81a79c9eac205010dc887f45c6d6c21d26d237c7031f94ad9b43b8df", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0030", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=2196s", "time_label": "36:36", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0031", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "start": 2267.5, "end": 2343.94, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "The north mid. So these are all isolated parts. But as the empire expands, they start to interact with these isolated ecosystems. And when they interact, what happens is these borderlands become energized. Okay? It's like the empire is adding fuel to the borderlands. By giving them more wealth. By giving them more knowledge. By giving them more access to information. Okay? Does that make sense? And over time, what happens is, because of this new energy, the borderlands become much more populated. Much more wealthy. Much more knowledgeable. And then it creates internal conflicts within their borderlands. And the only way for them to resolve this conflict is to create internal conflicts. And the only way for them to resolve this conflict is to expand. Okay? They have to expand now. And in the process of expansion, what happens is, now and then, they will conquer the empire. All right? That's a pattern. The borderlands are first these isolated regions that no one knows much about.", "word_count": 167, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-001", "start": 2267.5, "end": 2269.12, "text": "The north mid.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-002", "start": 2270.81, "end": 2272.59, "text": "So these are all isolated parts.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-003", "start": 2272.87, "end": 2274.43, "text": "But as the empire expands,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-004", "start": 2274.97, "end": 2279.56, "text": "they start to interact with these isolated ecosystems.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-005", "start": 2280.46, "end": 2287.22, "text": "And when they interact, what happens is these borderlands become energized.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-006", "start": 2287.96, "end": 2292.69, "text": "Okay? It's like the empire is adding fuel to the borderlands.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-007", "start": 2292.79, "end": 2294.23, "text": "By giving them more wealth.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-008", "start": 2294.57, "end": 2295.97, "text": "By giving them more knowledge.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-009", "start": 2296.73, "end": 2298.49, "text": "By giving them more access to information.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-010", "start": 2298.87, "end": 2299.51, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-011", "start": 2301.14, "end": 2303.9, "text": "And over time, what happens is,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-012", "start": 2304.12, "end": 2306, "text": "because of this new energy,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-013", "start": 2306.32, "end": 2309.19, "text": "the borderlands become much more populated.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-014", "start": 2309.53, "end": 2310.59, "text": "Much more wealthy.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-015", "start": 2311.27, "end": 2312.25, "text": "Much more knowledgeable.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-016", "start": 2313.09, "end": 2316.49, "text": "And then it creates internal conflicts within their borderlands.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-017", "start": 2316.97, "end": 2320.01, "text": "And the only way for them to resolve this conflict is to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-018", "start": 2320.01, "end": 2320.01, "text": "create internal conflicts.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-019", "start": 2320.01, "end": 2321.53, "text": "And the only way for them to resolve this conflict is to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-020", "start": 2321.53, "end": 2325.4, "text": "expand. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-021", "start": 2325.64, "end": 2327.1, "text": "They have to expand now.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-022", "start": 2327.32, "end": 2329.06, "text": "And in the process of expansion,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-023", "start": 2330.24, "end": 2332.56, "text": "what happens is, now and then,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-024", "start": 2332.6, "end": 2333.74, "text": "they will conquer the empire.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-025", "start": 2334.52, "end": 2335.28, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-026", "start": 2335.84, "end": 2336.76, "text": "That's a pattern.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-027", "start": 2338.26, "end": 2341.44, "text": "The borderlands are first these isolated regions", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-028", "start": 2341.44, "end": 2343.94, "text": "that no one knows much about.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "bc477c74dc1cf2924ed74294af67667618ed6b9c6b923153c4483b98ff5b2441", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0031", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=2267s", "time_label": "37:47", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0032", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "start": 2345.28, "end": 2408.03, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "They're like the stuff of legend and myth. When the empire expands, it energizes these borderlands. The energy makes these borderlands more wealthy, more populated, and more militarily sophisticated. That creates conflicts within the borderlands. Too many people. So what are they forced to do? They're forced to expand. And during this course of this expansion, they come into conflict with the empire. And now and then, they will conquer the empire, become the new empire. That's a pattern. And it happens all over human history. Okay? This is how the Mongolians conquered China. This is how the Manchus conquered China. Before the Mongolians and the Manchus conquered China, there was trade. The Chinese empire was using them as mercenaries. Okay? There was also a lot of small conflict. Does that make sense? All right. So now that I've explained the pattern, the question then is, why would this happen? Why would this happen?", "word_count": 154, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-001", "start": 2345.28, "end": 2347.24, "text": "They're like the stuff of legend and myth.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-002", "start": 2347.52, "end": 2352.76, "text": "When the empire expands, it energizes these borderlands.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-003", "start": 2352.76, "end": 2356.36, "text": "The energy makes these borderlands more wealthy,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-004", "start": 2356.48, "end": 2359.76, "text": "more populated, and more militarily sophisticated.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-005", "start": 2360.52, "end": 2363.12, "text": "That creates conflicts within the borderlands.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-006", "start": 2363.24, "end": 2363.84, "text": "Too many people.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-007", "start": 2364, "end": 2365.12, "text": "So what are they forced to do?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-008", "start": 2365.2, "end": 2365.88, "text": "They're forced to expand.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-009", "start": 2366.61, "end": 2368.31, "text": "And during this course of this expansion,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-010", "start": 2368.61, "end": 2369.79, "text": "they come into conflict with the empire.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-011", "start": 2370.25, "end": 2372.93, "text": "And now and then, they will conquer the empire,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-012", "start": 2373.05, "end": 2374.29, "text": "become the new empire.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-013", "start": 2375.07, "end": 2375.89, "text": "That's a pattern.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-014", "start": 2376.09, "end": 2378.73, "text": "And it happens all over human history.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-015", "start": 2379.65, "end": 2382.15, "text": "Okay? This is how the Mongolians conquered China.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-016", "start": 2382.31, "end": 2383.85, "text": "This is how the Manchus conquered China.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-017", "start": 2383.85, "end": 2386.57, "text": "Before the Mongolians and the Manchus conquered China,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-018", "start": 2386.83, "end": 2387.99, "text": "there was trade.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-019", "start": 2389.46, "end": 2391.88, "text": "The Chinese empire was using them as mercenaries.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-020", "start": 2392.75, "end": 2395.57, "text": "Okay? There was also a lot of small conflict.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-021", "start": 2395.83, "end": 2396.67, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-022", "start": 2397.6, "end": 2398.28, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-023", "start": 2398.72, "end": 2400.44, "text": "So now that I've explained the pattern,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-024", "start": 2400.86, "end": 2404.54, "text": "the question then is, why would this happen?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-025", "start": 2406.97, "end": 2408.03, "text": "Why would this happen?", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "42f7aa9fd02db79b9c1d75f2b98ddbf6403359cec3111a8eb1f3cf4cbd534638", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0032", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=2345s", "time_label": "39:05", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0033", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "start": 2408.21, "end": 2499.003, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "How is it possible for the borderlands, which, again, is only a fraction of the wealth, the population and the resources of the empire, how were they able to conquer the empire? And this is a really important lesson you will learn in this class, which is empires are destined to collapse. Empires must collapse. All right? So, why is that the case? In this class, you will learn there are three boundary conditions of all societies. Eventually, all societies must collapse for three reasons. All right. The first reason is elite overproduction. The second reason is rat utopia. And the third reason is financialism. All right. So, let me explain the first, financialism. What do I mean by that? All right. When a society first starts, it's important for a society to start. It's important for people to contribute to its growth. Right? And I can do that by starting a farm. When I build a farm, I make goods.", "word_count": 161, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-001", "start": 2408.21, "end": 2410.61, "text": "How is it possible for the borderlands,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-002", "start": 2410.71, "end": 2416.04, "text": "which, again, is only a fraction of the wealth,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-003", "start": 2416.2, "end": 2418.2, "text": "the population and the resources of the empire,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-004", "start": 2418.44, "end": 2421.32, "text": "how were they able to conquer the empire?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-005", "start": 2422.25, "end": 2427.01, "text": "And this is a really important lesson you will learn in this", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-006", "start": 2427.01, "end": 2431.81, "text": "class, which is empires are destined to collapse.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-007", "start": 2433.84, "end": 2435.54, "text": "Empires must collapse.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-008", "start": 2437.53, "end": 2438.01, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-009", "start": 2441.15, "end": 2443.07, "text": "So, why is that the case?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-010", "start": 2443.51, "end": 2448.99, "text": "In this class, you will learn there are three boundary conditions of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-011", "start": 2448.99, "end": 2450.21, "text": "all societies.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-012", "start": 2451.44, "end": 2456.76, "text": "Eventually, all societies must collapse for three reasons.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-013", "start": 2457.85, "end": 2458.59, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-014", "start": 2458.63, "end": 2463.72, "text": "The first reason is elite overproduction.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-015", "start": 2464.08, "end": 2469.11, "text": "The second reason is rat utopia.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-016", "start": 2470.86, "end": 2476.7, "text": "And the third reason is financialism.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-017", "start": 2478.2, "end": 2478.92, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-018", "start": 2479.56, "end": 2480.86, "text": "So, let me explain the first,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-019", "start": 2480.98, "end": 2482.78, "text": "financialism. What do I mean by that?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-020", "start": 2482.96, "end": 2483.58, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-021", "start": 2486.76, "end": 2488.72, "text": "When a society first starts,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-022", "start": 2488.98, "end": 2490.46, "text": "it's important for a society to start.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-023", "start": 2490.46, "end": 2492.18, "text": "It's important for people to contribute to its growth.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-024", "start": 2492.72, "end": 2495.86, "text": "Right? And I can do that by starting a farm.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-025", "start": 2496.46, "end": 2498, "text": "When I build a farm,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-026", "start": 2498.12, "end": 2498.76, "text": "I make", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-027", "start": 2498.76, "end": 2499.003, "text": "goods.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "2a0292803354090ec176b55b8a276c2f7670fafc39a7c2219db103aa7a437804", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0033", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=2408s", "time_label": "40:08", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0034", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "start": 2499.003, "end": 2580.44, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "I'm creating wealth for the society. Right? You can also do that by building a factory. But over time, what happens is you eventually realize that it's more profitable for you to lend money than to build things. Does that make sense? It is much profitable. Much easier. Much easier for you to be a capitalist than it is to be an entrepreneur over time. So, there's this very famous French economist. His name is Thomas Piketty. And he wrote a book called Capital in the 21st Century. It's a very good book. It's very easy to read. And it's one of the most discussed books right now. And he makes the argument why inequality happens. Inequality in society happens because of the nature of capital. Right? The nature of money. What money does is it seeks to grow for the sake of growing. And what's the best way for capital to grow? By consolidating and charging rents. Okay?", "word_count": 159, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-001", "start": 2499.003, "end": 2500.46, "text": "I'm creating wealth for the society.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-002", "start": 2500.6, "end": 2503.1, "text": "Right? You can also do that by building a factory.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-003", "start": 2505.7, "end": 2512.54, "text": "But over time, what happens is you eventually realize that it's more", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-004", "start": 2512.54, "end": 2518.49, "text": "profitable for you to lend money than to build things.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-005", "start": 2519.09, "end": 2519.91, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-006", "start": 2522.47, "end": 2524.01, "text": "It is much profitable.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-007", "start": 2524.09, "end": 2524.83, "text": "Much easier.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-008", "start": 2524.91, "end": 2530.3, "text": "Much easier for you to be a capitalist than it is to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-009", "start": 2530.3, "end": 2532.73, "text": "be an entrepreneur over time.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-010", "start": 2534.26, "end": 2536.86, "text": "So, there's this very famous French economist.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-011", "start": 2537.02, "end": 2538.94, "text": "His name is Thomas Piketty.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-012", "start": 2541.85, "end": 2545.51, "text": "And he wrote a book called Capital in the 21st Century.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-013", "start": 2546.09, "end": 2547.17, "text": "It's a very good book.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-014", "start": 2547.41, "end": 2548.49, "text": "It's very easy to read.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-015", "start": 2548.73, "end": 2551.85, "text": "And it's one of the most discussed books right now.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-016", "start": 2552.65, "end": 2557.13, "text": "And he makes the argument why inequality happens.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-017", "start": 2558.02, "end": 2562.86, "text": "Inequality in society happens because of the nature of capital.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-018", "start": 2563.44, "end": 2565.12, "text": "Right? The nature of money.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-019", "start": 2565.64, "end": 2569.98, "text": "What money does is it seeks to grow for the sake of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-020", "start": 2569.98, "end": 2573.56, "text": "growing. And what's the best way for capital to grow?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-021", "start": 2574.15, "end": 2578.69, "text": "By consolidating and charging rents.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-022", "start": 2579.72, "end": 2580.44, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "18844b22fd4bc9058e9783852553b70a559809ea40a16250afe5206c80eaf0fc", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0034", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=2499s", "time_label": "41:39", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0035", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "start": 2580.48, "end": 2672.72, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Does that make sense? So, the example is, okay, there are five restaurants in Beijing. They're obviously trying to compete against each other for customers. So, they lower prices and try to create better food. But eventually, at some point, they figure out, hey, we're five restaurants, man. We can just get together and negotiate a cartel, a deal, where we charge all high prices. Right? Then we make more money that way. That's something we call rent -sinking behavior. Rent -sinking. Native rent -sinking is to create a monopoly which forces people to buy whatever prices you charge them. Okay? That's the ultimate goal of industry or society or business. Okay? To engage in rent -sinking behavior. And over time, because capital consolidates, it's much more profitable to engage in capitalism than it is to engage in entrepreneurship. Okay? Meaning, you're better off actually investing in the stock market than you are in getting a job. In fact, what he shows is the return on financial capitalism is 5 % a year.", "word_count": 173, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-001", "start": 2580.48, "end": 2581, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-002", "start": 2581.54, "end": 2584.74, "text": "So, the example is, okay,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-003", "start": 2584.86, "end": 2588.04, "text": "there are five restaurants in Beijing.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-004", "start": 2588.04, "end": 2592.04, "text": "They're obviously trying to compete against each other for customers.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-005", "start": 2592.92, "end": 2596.88, "text": "So, they lower prices and try to create better food.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-006", "start": 2597.72, "end": 2599.62, "text": "But eventually, at some point,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-007", "start": 2599.66, "end": 2602.62, "text": "they figure out, hey, we're five restaurants,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-008", "start": 2602.8, "end": 2606.82, "text": "man. We can just get together and negotiate a cartel,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-009", "start": 2606.82, "end": 2611.38, "text": "a deal, where we charge all high prices.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-010", "start": 2612.78, "end": 2616.23, "text": "Right? Then we make more money that way.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-011", "start": 2616.47, "end": 2618.91, "text": "That's something we call rent -sinking behavior.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-012", "start": 2619.11, "end": 2619.79, "text": "Rent -sinking.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-013", "start": 2621.21, "end": 2630.7, "text": "Native rent -sinking is to create a monopoly which forces people to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-014", "start": 2630.7, "end": 2632.6, "text": "buy whatever prices you charge them.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-015", "start": 2632.78, "end": 2638.24, "text": "Okay? That's the ultimate goal of industry or society or business.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-016", "start": 2638.44, "end": 2640.88, "text": "Okay? To engage in rent -sinking behavior.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-017", "start": 2643.53, "end": 2647.38, "text": "And over time, because capital consolidates,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-018", "start": 2647.49, "end": 2654.62, "text": "it's much more profitable to engage in capitalism than it is to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-019", "start": 2654.62, "end": 2655.56, "text": "engage in entrepreneurship.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-020", "start": 2656.54, "end": 2660.26, "text": "Okay? Meaning, you're better off actually investing in the stock market than", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-021", "start": 2660.26, "end": 2662.4, "text": "you are in getting a job.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-022", "start": 2663.06, "end": 2665.22, "text": "In fact, what", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-023", "start": 2665.35, "end": 2672.42, "text": "he shows is the return on financial capitalism is 5 % a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-024", "start": 2672.42, "end": 2672.72, "text": "year.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "95507156052b9dec0f70348afddff6164e15e5719db38d95cf8479768a6a2526", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0035", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=2580s", "time_label": "43:00", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0036", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "start": 2672.72, "end": 2742.68, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? On average, if you put $100 in the stock market, you make $5. All right? But the return on the real economy is only 2%. Meaning, if you start a factory and you hire people, or you start a restaurant, which contributes real growth, real wealth to the economy, you're going to make 2%. All right? And that's why if you go to America, and you will go to America eventually, you'll find that young people your age, they're not working. What are they doing? They're investing in Bitcoin. They're playing the real estate market. They're investing in stocks. Do you understand? Because you make more money doing that than you do by doing real work, by creating a company. Do you understand? In other words, your society isn't producing any value. And as a result, your economy can't move on. Right? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 147, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-001", "start": 2672.72, "end": 2673.02, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-002", "start": 2673.08, "end": 2676, "text": "On average, if you put $100 in the stock market,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-003", "start": 2676.18, "end": 2677.22, "text": "you make $5.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-004", "start": 2678.27, "end": 2678.99, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-005", "start": 2679.77, "end": 2683.05, "text": "But the return on the real economy is only 2%.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-006", "start": 2683.05, "end": 2687.77, "text": "Meaning, if you start a factory and you hire people,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-007", "start": 2687.89, "end": 2689.09, "text": "or you start a restaurant,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-008", "start": 2689.27, "end": 2693.23, "text": "which contributes real growth, real wealth to the economy,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-009", "start": 2693.43, "end": 2694.61, "text": "you're going to make 2%.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-010", "start": 2695.7, "end": 2696.34, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-011", "start": 2696.78, "end": 2701.22, "text": "And that's why if you go to America,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-012", "start": 2701.82, "end": 2703.2, "text": "and you will go to America eventually,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-013", "start": 2703.48, "end": 2705.7, "text": "you'll find that young people your age,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-014", "start": 2705.9, "end": 2707.5, "text": "they're not working.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-015", "start": 2707.72, "end": 2708.54, "text": "What are they doing?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-016", "start": 2708.86, "end": 2710.68, "text": "They're investing in Bitcoin.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-017", "start": 2711.87, "end": 2713.83, "text": "They're playing the real estate market.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-018", "start": 2716.48, "end": 2717.8, "text": "They're investing in stocks.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-019", "start": 2718, "end": 2718.32, "text": "Do you understand?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-020", "start": 2718.8, "end": 2723.14, "text": "Because you make more money doing that than you do by doing", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-021", "start": 2723.14, "end": 2725, "text": "real work, by creating a company.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-022", "start": 2725.92, "end": 2726.54, "text": "Do you understand?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-023", "start": 2728.22, "end": 2733.99, "text": "In other words, your society isn't producing any value.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-024", "start": 2736.36, "end": 2740.02, "text": "And as a result, your economy can't move on.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-025", "start": 2740.5, "end": 2742.68, "text": "Right? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "0f4ab60a1c4d5ad63b3d8f16d9ce22d94d5dce50c2f8c65397fbb5d31ec13b4c", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0036", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=2672s", "time_label": "44:32", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0037", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "start": 2744.33, "end": 2815.9, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And when you're in this situation, what are you forced to do now? If you're a society and you want to continue, what are you forced to do? See me? No. What do you do? Historically, what have societies done in order to get out of this situation where financialism has destroyed your society? Make war, guys. Do you understand? When you make war, you destroy things. When you destroy things, you are forced to rebuild things. It doesn't make sense. That's why we have war. Because war means a game reset. It allows society to rebuild. It allows society to rebuild itself. So that's the first idea I want you guys to understand. Over time, the economy matures to a point where everyone becomes a renter. Sorry, a rentier. You're trying to be a landlord. You're trying to charge people to use your land. You don't want to work. This is true throughout the world. In China, it's the same thing throughout Chinese history.", "word_count": 165, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-001", "start": 2744.33, "end": 2745.45, "text": "And when you're in this situation,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-002", "start": 2745.65, "end": 2746.41, "text": "what are you forced to do now?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-003", "start": 2748.56, "end": 2750.58, "text": "If you're a society and you want to continue,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-004", "start": 2750.88, "end": 2752.14, "text": "what are you forced to do?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-005", "start": 2752.14, "end": 2755.31, "text": "See me?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-006", "start": 2756.42, "end": 2758.02, "text": "No. What do you do?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-007", "start": 2758.7, "end": 2762.12, "text": "Historically, what have societies done in order to get out of this", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-008", "start": 2762.12, "end": 2766.77, "text": "situation where financialism has destroyed your society?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-009", "start": 2769.24, "end": 2770.38, "text": "Make war, guys.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-010", "start": 2771.07, "end": 2771.81, "text": "Do you understand?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-011", "start": 2772.21, "end": 2774.15, "text": "When you make war, you destroy things.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-012", "start": 2774.49, "end": 2777.01, "text": "When you destroy things, you are forced to rebuild things.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-013", "start": 2777.67, "end": 2778.63, "text": "It doesn't make sense.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-014", "start": 2780.23, "end": 2781.21, "text": "That's why we have war.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-015", "start": 2782.44, "end": 2785.46, "text": "Because war means a game reset.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-016", "start": 2785.86, "end": 2787.84, "text": "It allows society to rebuild.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-017", "start": 2787.84, "end": 2788.94, "text": "It allows society to rebuild itself.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-018", "start": 2791.12, "end": 2793.36, "text": "So that's the first idea I want you guys to understand.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-019", "start": 2794.24, "end": 2800.47, "text": "Over time, the economy matures to a point where everyone becomes a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-020", "start": 2800.47, "end": 2803.35, "text": "renter. Sorry, a rentier.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-021", "start": 2804.16, "end": 2805.84, "text": "You're trying to be a landlord.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-022", "start": 2806.1, "end": 2809.76, "text": "You're trying to charge people to use your land.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-023", "start": 2810.06, "end": 2811.02, "text": "You don't want to work.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-024", "start": 2812.02, "end": 2813.62, "text": "This is true throughout the world.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-025", "start": 2813.72, "end": 2814.54, "text": "In China, it's the", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-026", "start": 2814.54, "end": 2815.9, "text": "same thing throughout Chinese history.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "9631afafc41e4dd457ffa01ae904deb973d8c2a48a26e0e8e4896979cf1dfe2a", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0037", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=2744s", "time_label": "45:44", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0038", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "start": 2816.38, "end": 2887.14, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Right now in the West, it's the same thing as well. And at that point, you have no choice but to start a war to reset your society. Or your society will continue to decline. So the first boundary condition, war societies must die. Second boundary condition is the idea of rat utopia. So we discussed this a bit last semester. I want to refresh your memory. Rat utopia is an experiment that's been done many times. But the idea is this. What happens to rats in a perfect world? Normally, rats have an extremely ritualized society. So for example, if you want to mate, what male rats do is they go on top of a mound where all the female rats can see them. And the male rats start to dance. They dance really in a very strange way. But that attracts the attention of the female. The male rat sees the attention of the female rat.", "word_count": 158, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-001", "start": 2816.38, "end": 2817.46, "text": "Right now in the West,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-002", "start": 2817.72, "end": 2818.64, "text": "it's the same thing as well.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-003", "start": 2821.62, "end": 2824.62, "text": "And at that point, you have no choice but to start a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-004", "start": 2824.62, "end": 2826.8, "text": "war to reset your society.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-005", "start": 2827.69, "end": 2830.21, "text": "Or your society will continue to decline.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-006", "start": 2830.51, "end": 2832.59, "text": "So the first boundary condition,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-007", "start": 2832.89, "end": 2834.15, "text": "war societies must die.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-008", "start": 2834.8, "end": 2839.72, "text": "Second boundary condition is the idea of rat utopia.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-009", "start": 2840.38, "end": 2843.12, "text": "So we discussed this a bit last semester.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-010", "start": 2843.3, "end": 2844.66, "text": "I want to refresh your memory.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-011", "start": 2845.02, "end": 2848.38, "text": "Rat utopia is an experiment that's been done many times.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-012", "start": 2848.6, "end": 2849.34, "text": "But the idea is this.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-013", "start": 2849.34, "end": 2853.26, "text": "What happens to rats in a perfect world?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-014", "start": 2855.83, "end": 2860.61, "text": "Normally, rats have an extremely ritualized society.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-015", "start": 2861.42, "end": 2864.64, "text": "So for example, if you want to mate,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-016", "start": 2864.72, "end": 2870.08, "text": "what male rats do is they go on top of a mound", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-017", "start": 2870.08, "end": 2872.26, "text": "where all the female rats can see them.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-018", "start": 2872.56, "end": 2876.16, "text": "And the male rats start to dance.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-019", "start": 2876.44, "end": 2882.13, "text": "They dance really in a very strange way.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-020", "start": 2882.35, "end": 2883.71, "text": "But that attracts the attention of the female.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-021", "start": 2884.84, "end": 2886.64, "text": "The male rat sees the attention of", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-022", "start": 2886.64, "end": 2887.14, "text": "the female rat.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "60960432495a5d8baa60122bdf6d7d167c4f78438b7c4d2cf33de68d921b3404", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0038", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=2816s", "time_label": "46:56", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0039", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "start": 2887.38, "end": 2955.93, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And the male rat starts to chase the female rat. The female rat runs back into her burrow, her home, and hides. The male rat has to stand outside and wait for the female rat to come out. When she comes out, she will start running again. And he will start chasing her. And then she'll run back into her furrow again. And they do this multiple times until eventually the female rat lets him catch her. And then they will have sex. And they'll be married and have children. So that's rat society. And it's no different from human society. You like a girl or a boy. You guys go out for a coffee date and a lunch date and a dinner date. Then eventually, after a couple of years, you might have sex and get married and have children. No different. It's a very heavily ritualized society. What experimenters did was they asked themselves, What would happen if we made a perfect world where no one had to fight for food?", "word_count": 173, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-001", "start": 2887.38, "end": 2889.7, "text": "And the male rat starts to chase the female rat.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-002", "start": 2890.06, "end": 2893.39, "text": "The female rat runs back into her burrow,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-003", "start": 2893.47, "end": 2894.45, "text": "her home, and hides.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-004", "start": 2894.93, "end": 2898.17, "text": "The male rat has to stand outside and wait for the female", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-005", "start": 2898.17, "end": 2898.85, "text": "rat to come out.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-006", "start": 2899.05, "end": 2902.52, "text": "When she comes out, she will start running again.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-007", "start": 2902.7, "end": 2905.66, "text": "And he will start chasing her.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-008", "start": 2906.18, "end": 2908.12, "text": "And then she'll run back into her furrow again.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-009", "start": 2908.46, "end": 2913.42, "text": "And they do this multiple times until eventually the female rat lets", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-010", "start": 2913.74, "end": 2915.54, "text": "him catch her.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-011", "start": 2915.66, "end": 2916.92, "text": "And then they will have sex.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-012", "start": 2917.02, "end": 2918.72, "text": "And they'll be married and have children.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-013", "start": 2918.84, "end": 2920.18, "text": "So that's rat society.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-014", "start": 2920.58, "end": 2922.58, "text": "And it's no different from human society.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-015", "start": 2924.5, "end": 2928.28, "text": "You like a girl or a boy.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-016", "start": 2928.44, "end": 2931.1, "text": "You guys go out for a coffee date and a lunch date", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-017", "start": 2931.1, "end": 2931.84, "text": "and a dinner date.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-018", "start": 2932.22, "end": 2934.52, "text": "Then eventually, after a couple of years,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-019", "start": 2934.62, "end": 2937.2, "text": "you might have sex and get married and have children.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-020", "start": 2937.5, "end": 2938.28, "text": "No different.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-021", "start": 2938.28, "end": 2941.64, "text": "It's a very heavily ritualized society.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-022", "start": 2944.44, "end": 2947.28, "text": "What experimenters did was they asked themselves,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-023", "start": 2947.5, "end": 2947.76, "text": "What", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-024", "start": 2947.76, "end": 2954.23, "text": "would happen if we made a perfect world where no one had", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-025", "start": 2954.23, "end": 2955.93, "text": "to fight for food?", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "8a51fad20d269aac91f6e884602f16ceda7696de370f800874fe75361e8f931d", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0039", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=2887s", "time_label": "48:07", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0040", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "start": 2956.13, "end": 3019.36, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Everyday food would come down from the heavens. And all the rats could do whatever they want. They would have complete freedom. This is what we call rat utopia. It turned out all society collapsed. It was a complete disaster. The male rats start to rape female rats. There's no more playing around. There's no more ritual. It was all just rape and murder. It was a complete breakdown of society. Why did this happen? There are many different theories. But one thing that you need to understand about rats and humans is we all like status. Status. The idea is this. We humans, we're all standing in line to go onto a mountaintop. The mountaintop, everyone respects you. You make a lot of money. You feel good about yourself. And we're all standing in line. And this line takes a long time. But eventually you will get to the mountaintop.", "word_count": 151, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-001", "start": 2956.13, "end": 2958.85, "text": "Everyday food would come down from the heavens.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-002", "start": 2959.11, "end": 2961.69, "text": "And all the rats could do whatever they want.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-003", "start": 2961.87, "end": 2962.69, "text": "They would have complete freedom.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-004", "start": 2962.83, "end": 2964.03, "text": "This is what we call rat utopia.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-005", "start": 2964.95, "end": 2969.29, "text": "It turned out all society collapsed.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-006", "start": 2969.65, "end": 2970.61, "text": "It was a complete disaster.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-007", "start": 2970.61, "end": 2974.78, "text": "The male rats start to rape female rats.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-008", "start": 2974.96, "end": 2978.04, "text": "There's no more playing around.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-009", "start": 2978.4, "end": 2980.1, "text": "There's no more ritual.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-010", "start": 2980.28, "end": 2982.32, "text": "It was all just rape and murder.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-011", "start": 2982.58, "end": 2984.98, "text": "It was a complete breakdown of society.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-012", "start": 2985.69, "end": 2987.01, "text": "Why did this happen?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-013", "start": 2987.79, "end": 2989.21, "text": "There are many different theories.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-014", "start": 2989.69, "end": 2993.49, "text": "But one thing that you need to understand about rats and humans", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-015", "start": 2993.49, "end": 2996.01, "text": "is we all like status.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-016", "start": 2997.43, "end": 3001.22, "text": "Status. The idea is this.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-017", "start": 3002.17, "end": 3007.01, "text": "We humans, we're all standing in line to go onto a mountaintop.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-018", "start": 3007.41, "end": 3009.67, "text": "The mountaintop, everyone respects you.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-019", "start": 3009.91, "end": 3011.11, "text": "You make a lot of money.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-020", "start": 3011.29, "end": 3012.25, "text": "You feel good about yourself.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-021", "start": 3012.93, "end": 3014.07, "text": "And we're all standing in line.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-022", "start": 3014.9, "end": 3017.4, "text": "And this line takes a long time.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-023", "start": 3017.54, "end": 3017.96, "text": "But", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-024", "start": 3017.96, "end": 3019.36, "text": "eventually you will get to the mountaintop.", "word_count": 7 } ], "text_sha256": "e837712dd1fe7b36251a694d3892ab743c5b0f7495c95c5a7ea13f483b78773e", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0040", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=2956s", "time_label": "49:16", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0041", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "start": 3020.8, "end": 3068, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "How this game works is people on the mountaintop have to fall off and die in order for other people to climb up. Does that make sense? But what happens when the people on the mountaintop don't die? Well, you're just stuck in line. When you're stuck in line, I'm not sure if you've been stuck in line for like hours and hours, but you get angry, right? You get frustrated. So what do you do? Well, you hit someone behind you. And then that person gets angry and hits you back, okay? Eventually, that's this line, everyone's fighting each other. And people at the mountaintop are enjoying each other, are enjoying the view, they have status, and they're never going to die. They're never going to fall off. And this is our society today, guys. Okay? The people in power in China, in the United States, all around the world, have been there for a long, long time.", "word_count": 159, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-001", "start": 3020.8, "end": 3024.24, "text": "How this game works is people on the mountaintop have to fall", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-002", "start": 3024.24, "end": 3026.88, "text": "off and die in order for other people to climb up.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-003", "start": 3027.02, "end": 3027.56, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-004", "start": 3028.68, "end": 3032.99, "text": "But what happens when the people on the mountaintop don't die?", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-005", "start": 3034.96, "end": 3036.46, "text": "Well, you're just stuck in line.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-006", "start": 3037.32, "end": 3038.32, "text": "When you're stuck in line,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-007", "start": 3038.44, "end": 3041.07, "text": "I'm not sure if you've been stuck in line for like hours", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-008", "start": 3041.07, "end": 3042.21, "text": "and hours, but you get angry,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-009", "start": 3042.29, "end": 3043.33, "text": "right? You get frustrated.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-010", "start": 3043.77, "end": 3044.49, "text": "So what do you do?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-011", "start": 3044.53, "end": 3046.07, "text": "Well, you hit someone behind you.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-012", "start": 3046.6, "end": 3049.06, "text": "And then that person gets angry and hits you back,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-013", "start": 3049.26, "end": 3050.76, "text": "okay? Eventually, that's this line,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-014", "start": 3050.92, "end": 3051.84, "text": "everyone's fighting each other.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-015", "start": 3052, "end": 3053.98, "text": "And people at the mountaintop are enjoying each other,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-016", "start": 3054.06, "end": 3056.08, "text": "are enjoying the view, they have status,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-017", "start": 3056.24, "end": 3057.26, "text": "and they're never going to die.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-018", "start": 3057.42, "end": 3058.32, "text": "They're never going to fall off.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-019", "start": 3058.5, "end": 3059.54, "text": "And this is our society today,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-020", "start": 3059.68, "end": 3060.64, "text": "guys. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-021", "start": 3061.26, "end": 3063.22, "text": "The people in power in China,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-022", "start": 3063.9, "end": 3065.3, "text": "in the United States, all around the world,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-023", "start": 3065.36, "end": 3065.74, "text": "have been", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-024", "start": 3065.74, "end": 3068, "text": "there for a long, long time.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "b1e7d72561413ffc29bb412f5c536adac06dafeccce10dbed123ceaebab7c0ac", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0041", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=3020s", "time_label": "50:20", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0042", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "start": 3068.22, "end": 3136.32, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And they're not dying. So what are young people doing? Tengping, Bailan, right? Quiet quitting. Lying flat. Because you don't see any opportunities. What you want is not money. What you want is status. And that requires you to achieve a certain level in society. But those positions are being occupied by people who refuse to die. And as a result, society collapses. Young people refuse to work. They refuse to get married and have children. So your society dies. You understand? So radiotopia is the second boundary condition. Does that make sense, guys? You're seeing this all around the world today. All right? Ask yourselves, why is it that you yourself are not motivated? And the answer is, you really don't see an opportunity to climb to the top and enjoy status. You just don't. Because people aren't dying. They're just not. And why? Because we've achieved a certain level of abundance and wealth that allows people to keep on living.", "word_count": 162, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-001", "start": 3068.22, "end": 3069.08, "text": "And they're not dying.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-002", "start": 3069.99, "end": 3071.17, "text": "So what are young people doing?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-003", "start": 3072.78, "end": 3074.38, "text": "Tengping, Bailan, right?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-004", "start": 3075.83, "end": 3076.65, "text": "Quiet quitting.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-005", "start": 3076.87, "end": 3077.59, "text": "Lying flat.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-006", "start": 3077.87, "end": 3079.25, "text": "Because you don't see any opportunities.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-007", "start": 3079.81, "end": 3081.27, "text": "What you want is not money.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-008", "start": 3081.67, "end": 3084.68, "text": "What you want is status.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-009", "start": 3085.3, "end": 3089.5, "text": "And that requires you to achieve a certain level in society.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-010", "start": 3090.85, "end": 3096.68, "text": "But those positions are being occupied by people who refuse to die.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-011", "start": 3097.37, "end": 3099.41, "text": "And as a result, society collapses.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-012", "start": 3099.77, "end": 3102.17, "text": "Young people refuse to work.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-013", "start": 3102.29, "end": 3104.11, "text": "They refuse to get married and have children.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-014", "start": 3104.29, "end": 3105.17, "text": "So your society dies.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-015", "start": 3105.59, "end": 3106.25, "text": "You understand?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-016", "start": 3107.09, "end": 3111.13, "text": "So radiotopia is the second boundary condition.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-017", "start": 3112, "end": 3112.98, "text": "Does that make sense, guys?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-018", "start": 3113.16, "end": 3114.52, "text": "You're seeing this all around the world today.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-019", "start": 3114.7, "end": 3114.9, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-020", "start": 3115.04, "end": 3118.78, "text": "Ask yourselves, why is it that you yourself are not motivated?", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-021", "start": 3119.14, "end": 3123.44, "text": "And the answer is, you really don't see an opportunity to climb", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-022", "start": 3123.44, "end": 3125.04, "text": "to the top and enjoy status.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-023", "start": 3125.04, "end": 3126.4, "text": "You just don't.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-024", "start": 3127, "end": 3129.4, "text": "Because people aren't dying.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-025", "start": 3129.68, "end": 3130.42, "text": "They're just not.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-026", "start": 3130.58, "end": 3130.88, "text": "And why?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-027", "start": 3131.02, "end": 3134.2, "text": "Because we've achieved a certain level of abundance and", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-028", "start": 3134.2, "end": 3136.32, "text": "wealth that allows people to keep on living.", "word_count": 8 } ], "text_sha256": "e14677d7724faf352a970e1d3d8d8b350345ab10275ebb0be0ce80dd61f9addb", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0042", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=3068s", "time_label": "51:08", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0043", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "start": 3138.14, "end": 3208.09, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? Does that make sense? Any questions before I continue? Are you guys clear about this? And the third boundary condition is the idea of elite overproduction. What is elite overproduction? Well, it's the same as radiotopia, but radiotopia is a conflict between the haves and the have -nots. Elite overproduction is a conflict among the haves, okay? The very wealthy. Because even though there's a certain number, a limited number of status positions, too many elite people are being produced. Okay? So it's not only that the children of poor people are being screwed over in the system, it's the children of the elite are being screwed over in the system. And this creates conflict. In the system. Because the poor can't do anything. They can just fight each other in line, but the elite can do something. They can go to war against each other. They can start killing each other, okay?", "word_count": 154, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-001", "start": 3138.14, "end": 3139.18, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-002", "start": 3140.69, "end": 3142.41, "text": "Any questions before I continue?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-003", "start": 3143.65, "end": 3145.07, "text": "Are you guys clear about this?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-004", "start": 3149.66, "end": 3154.68, "text": "And the third boundary condition is the idea of elite overproduction.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-005", "start": 3155.83, "end": 3156.99, "text": "What is elite overproduction?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-006", "start": 3157.57, "end": 3159.55, "text": "Well, it's the same as radiotopia,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-007", "start": 3161.29, "end": 3164.88, "text": "but radiotopia is a conflict between the haves and the have -nots.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-008", "start": 3165.72, "end": 3169.32, "text": "Elite overproduction is a conflict among the haves,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-009", "start": 3169.4, "end": 3170.36, "text": "okay? The very wealthy.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-010", "start": 3170.68, "end": 3174.54, "text": "Because even though there's a certain number,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-011", "start": 3174.84, "end": 3176.2, "text": "a limited number of status positions,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-012", "start": 3177.14, "end": 3179.62, "text": "too many elite people are being produced.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-013", "start": 3180.3, "end": 3187.95, "text": "Okay? So it's not only that the children of poor people are", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-014", "start": 3187.95, "end": 3189.05, "text": "being screwed over in the system,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-015", "start": 3189.17, "end": 3191.63, "text": "it's the children of the elite are being screwed over in the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-016", "start": 3191.63, "end": 3194.25, "text": "system. And this creates conflict.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-017", "start": 3195.15, "end": 3195.99, "text": "In the system.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-018", "start": 3196.21, "end": 3197.95, "text": "Because the poor can't do anything.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-019", "start": 3198.09, "end": 3199.13, "text": "They can just fight each other in line,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-020", "start": 3199.31, "end": 3202.03, "text": "but the elite can do something.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-021", "start": 3202.25, "end": 3204.01, "text": "They can go to war against each other.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-022", "start": 3204.25, "end": 3207.67, "text": "They can start killing each", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-023", "start": 3207.67, "end": 3208.09, "text": "other, okay?", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "5235e57e0b8b5b43b98bc5af174865afb760bcd92e613f8220a53291dc6e7e78", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0043", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=3138s", "time_label": "52:18", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0044", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "start": 3208.29, "end": 3291.12, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "This creates civil war. In fact, if you are to look at America today, you can say there's a civil war going on between two different factions of the elite. Okay? Does that make sense? And this is what drives a lot of history. Where a lot of revolutions happen not because the poor are trying to overthrow the rich, it's because the low nobility is fighting for opportunities against the upper nobility. Does that make sense, guys? And we're seeing this again today in China and also in the United States. Alright? So these are the three main boundary conditions. So, now let's apply to these three boundary conditions and ask ourselves why empires collapse. Well, the first reason is because most people in the empire don't want to live there. They're just stuck living there. Why do most people don't want to live there? Because they are in debt. Okay? Debt. And landlessness. Throughout most of", "word_count": 158, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-001", "start": 3208.29, "end": 3209.39, "text": "This creates civil war.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-002", "start": 3210.03, "end": 3215.07, "text": "In fact, if you are to look at America today,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-003", "start": 3215.39, "end": 3219.87, "text": "you can say there's a civil war going on between two different", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-004", "start": 3219.87, "end": 3221.23, "text": "factions of the elite.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-005", "start": 3222.27, "end": 3223.19, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-006", "start": 3224.62, "end": 3226.4, "text": "And this is what drives a lot of history.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-007", "start": 3226.64, "end": 3233.68, "text": "Where a lot of revolutions happen not because the poor are trying", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-008", "start": 3233.68, "end": 3241.02, "text": "to overthrow the rich, it's because the low nobility is fighting for", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-009", "start": 3241.02, "end": 3243.08, "text": "opportunities against the upper nobility.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-010", "start": 3243.38, "end": 3244.6, "text": "Does that make sense, guys?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-011", "start": 3245.08, "end": 3250.86, "text": "And we're seeing this again today in China and also in the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-012", "start": 3250.93, "end": 3252.21, "text": "United States.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-013", "start": 3253.28, "end": 3256.9, "text": "Alright? So these are the three main boundary conditions.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-014", "start": 3260.42, "end": 3265.89, "text": "So, now let's apply to these three boundary conditions and ask ourselves", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-015", "start": 3265.89, "end": 3267.53, "text": "why empires collapse.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-016", "start": 3268.42, "end": 3275.38, "text": "Well, the first reason is because most people in the empire don't", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-017", "start": 3275.38, "end": 3276.22, "text": "want to live there.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-018", "start": 3276.38, "end": 3277.66, "text": "They're just stuck living there.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-019", "start": 3277.96, "end": 3279.62, "text": "Why do most people don't want to live there?", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-020", "start": 3279.74, "end": 3281.86, "text": "Because they are in debt.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-021", "start": 3283.07, "end": 3284.84, "text": "Okay? Debt.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-022", "start": 3285.24, "end": 3286.18, "text": "And landlessness.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-023", "start": 3290.22, "end": 3291.12, "text": "Throughout most of", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "be2bb44eccb298889e32e59f1759b2fcc77d37a264d8f218b23cfbfde644a277", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0044", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=3208s", "time_label": "53:28", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0045", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "start": 3291.12, "end": 3365.66, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "human history, empires that have persisted for the longest have this huge problem where the majority of the population suffers from too much debt and suffers from too much landlessness. No opportunities. Okay? Then what happens is the elite starts fighting amongst themselves. There's corruption. Why is there corruption? Because the elite are struggling to engage in rent -seeking behavior amongst themselves. Okay? They're trying to steal more. They're stealing more and more. So there's corruption. There's civil conflict and there's corruption. So it's only a matter of time before the empire collapses. But during this time, what does the empire do? Okay. It's really strange and funny, but what they do is this. They import the people from the borderland in order to try to resolve their civil conflicts. Okay? Does that make sense? You can't trust the army anymore because the army is made up of people who have too much debt and who are landless. So what do you do?", "word_count": 163, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-001", "start": 3291.12, "end": 3296.02, "text": "human history, empires that have persisted for the longest have this huge", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-002", "start": 3296.02, "end": 3300.48, "text": "problem where the majority of the population suffers from too much debt", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-003", "start": 3300.48, "end": 3302.86, "text": "and suffers from too much landlessness.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-004", "start": 3302.96, "end": 3303.44, "text": "No opportunities.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-005", "start": 3307, "end": 3314.13, "text": "Okay? Then what happens is the elite starts fighting amongst themselves.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-006", "start": 3314.41, "end": 3315.21, "text": "There's corruption.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-007", "start": 3315.55, "end": 3316.23, "text": "Why is there corruption?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-008", "start": 3316.47, "end": 3322.07, "text": "Because the elite are struggling to engage in rent -seeking behavior amongst", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-009", "start": 3322.07, "end": 3323.19, "text": "themselves. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-010", "start": 3323.21, "end": 3323.83, "text": "They're trying to steal more.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-011", "start": 3323.89, "end": 3324.63, "text": "They're stealing more and more.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-012", "start": 3324.77, "end": 3325.71, "text": "So there's corruption.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-013", "start": 3326.34, "end": 3328.54, "text": "There's civil conflict and there's corruption.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-014", "start": 3330.58, "end": 3337.42, "text": "So it's only a matter of time before the empire collapses.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-015", "start": 3338.83, "end": 3341.21, "text": "But during this time, what does the empire do?", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-016", "start": 3341.89, "end": 3344.57, "text": "Okay. It's really strange and funny,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-017", "start": 3344.69, "end": 3346.19, "text": "but what they do is this.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-018", "start": 3346.93, "end": 3352.17, "text": "They import the people from the borderland in order to try to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-019", "start": 3352.17, "end": 3355.21, "text": "resolve their civil conflicts.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-020", "start": 3355.57, "end": 3356.63, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-021", "start": 3357.88, "end": 3361.74, "text": "You can't trust the army anymore because the army is made up", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-022", "start": 3361.74, "end": 3364.94, "text": "of people who have too much debt and who are landless.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-023", "start": 3365.06, "end": 3365.4, "text": "So what", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-024", "start": 3365.4, "end": 3365.66, "text": "do you do?", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "84ee8cdd185933c7b8db5acca2a1888a5f5dee00d90c0a86ef241093360c742f", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0045", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=3291s", "time_label": "54:51", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0046", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "start": 3365.72, "end": 3470.52, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "You hire foreign mercenaries. Right? That's what China does. Or that's what China did in its history. You can't trust your own army, so you hire foreign mercenaries. And eventually what happens is you replace your army with foreign mercenaries. And then, eventually, what happens? The foreign mercenaries take over your empire. That's what happened in Rome. That's what happened throughout human history. Okay. So now that we've discussed the empire, I want to look at the borderlands. Why is it true that the borderlands are able to conquer the empire? And my argument to you is cultural. Sorry, culture. It's cultural. All right? So we have this prejudice or misunderstanding about civilization. All right? Civilization. Civilization is about cities. It's about writing. It's about technology. It's about wealth. And if you looked at it that way, then you don't really understand why is it these borderlands, the Mongolians, the Mongchus, the Vikings, the Arabians, the Greeks, why are they able to conquer these empires?", "word_count": 165, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-001", "start": 3365.72, "end": 3367.52, "text": "You hire foreign mercenaries.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-002", "start": 3368.65, "end": 3370.27, "text": "Right? That's what China does.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-003", "start": 3370.47, "end": 3372.33, "text": "Or that's what China did in its history.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-004", "start": 3374.03, "end": 3376.25, "text": "You can't trust your own army,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-005", "start": 3376.37, "end": 3377.89, "text": "so you hire foreign mercenaries.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-006", "start": 3378.13, "end": 3382.31, "text": "And eventually what happens is you replace your army with foreign mercenaries.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-007", "start": 3387.49, "end": 3394.34, "text": "And then, eventually, what happens?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-008", "start": 3394.54, "end": 3397.26, "text": "The foreign mercenaries take over your empire.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-009", "start": 3398.11, "end": 3399.79, "text": "That's what happened in Rome.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-010", "start": 3400.07, "end": 3404.43, "text": "That's what happened throughout human history.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-011", "start": 3412.15, "end": 3415.27, "text": "Okay. So now that we've discussed the empire,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-012", "start": 3415.59, "end": 3416.93, "text": "I want to look at the borderlands.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-013", "start": 3417.56, "end": 3424.37, "text": "Why is it true that the borderlands are able to conquer the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-014", "start": 3424.37, "end": 3428.53, "text": "empire? And my argument to you is cultural.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-015", "start": 3429.05, "end": 3430.43, "text": "Sorry, culture.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-016", "start": 3430.67, "end": 3431.57, "text": "It's cultural.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-017", "start": 3432.23, "end": 3433.01, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-018", "start": 3433.07, "end": 3439.93, "text": "So we have this prejudice or misunderstanding about civilization.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-019", "start": 3440.37, "end": 3441.07, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-020", "start": 3441.15, "end": 3448.57, "text": "Civilization. Civilization is about cities.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-021", "start": 3449.13, "end": 3450.41, "text": "It's about writing.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-022", "start": 3451.33, "end": 3452.43, "text": "It's about technology.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-023", "start": 3452.71, "end": 3453.61, "text": "It's about wealth.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-024", "start": 3454.32, "end": 3456.54, "text": "And if you looked at it that way,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-025", "start": 3456.7, "end": 3461.85, "text": "then you don't really understand why is it these borderlands,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-026", "start": 3462.11, "end": 3465.72, "text": "the Mongolians, the Mongchus, the Vikings,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-027", "start": 3466.02, "end": 3467.88, "text": "the Arabians, the Greeks,", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-028", "start": 3468.04, "end": 3470.52, "text": "why are they able to conquer these empires?", "word_count": 8 } ], "text_sha256": "1518c8e12573ffeb706beb7afd9fd903478ef79f8c51afd06f32277ace4ddff6", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0046", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=3365s", "time_label": "56:05", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0047", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "start": 3470.7, "end": 3550.45, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "That makes no sense to you. Right? So what I'm trying to say, what I'm trying to tell you is this is a wrong way of looking at it. A better way of looking at it is culture. In the borderlands, there's a certain culture that develops because it's the borderlands. It's a culture that focuses on freedom, egalitarianism, and self -reliance, independence. This is true throughout the borderlands. If we were to go back to Mongolia during the time of Genghis Khan, if we were to go back to the European north of the time of the Vikings, these are cultures that emphasize freedom, egalitarianism, and self -reliance. And as such, these were amazing warriors. Okay? So let's look at an example. Let's look at the Vikings, okay? The Vikings didn't know how to read or write. They didn't have any mathematics. They didn't have cities. But from age two or", "word_count": 152, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-001", "start": 3470.7, "end": 3472.12, "text": "That makes no sense to you.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-002", "start": 3472.16, "end": 3474.93, "text": "Right? So what I'm trying to say,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-003", "start": 3475.07, "end": 3478.21, "text": "what I'm trying to tell you is this is a wrong way", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-004", "start": 3478.21, "end": 3478.81, "text": "of looking at it.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-005", "start": 3478.91, "end": 3480.69, "text": "A better way of looking at it is culture.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-006", "start": 3482.44, "end": 3487.14, "text": "In the borderlands, there's a certain culture that develops because it's the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-007", "start": 3487.14, "end": 3494.22, "text": "borderlands. It's a culture that focuses on freedom,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-008", "start": 3494.22, "end": 3502.5, "text": "egalitarianism, and self -reliance, independence.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-009", "start": 3503.8, "end": 3505.42, "text": "This is true throughout the borderlands.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-010", "start": 3505.96, "end": 3509.36, "text": "If we were to go back to Mongolia during the time of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-011", "start": 3509.36, "end": 3514.4, "text": "Genghis Khan, if we were to go back to the European north", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-012", "start": 3514.4, "end": 3515.52, "text": "of the time of the Vikings,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-013", "start": 3516.5, "end": 3520.14, "text": "these are cultures that emphasize freedom,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-014", "start": 3520.14, "end": 3521.78, "text": "egalitarianism, and self -reliance.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-015", "start": 3527.49, "end": 3532.83, "text": "And as such, these were amazing warriors.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-016", "start": 3533.23, "end": 3536.38, "text": "Okay? So let's look at an example.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-017", "start": 3536.74, "end": 3539.64, "text": "Let's look at the Vikings,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-018", "start": 3540.92, "end": 3543.93, "text": "okay? The Vikings didn't know how to read or write.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-019", "start": 3544.05, "end": 3545.03, "text": "They didn't have any mathematics.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-020", "start": 3545.39, "end": 3546.07, "text": "They didn't have cities.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-021", "start": 3547.85, "end": 3550.45, "text": "But from age two or", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "8d67a24d06d140d6ce145715e8c8dfd9e7bfabd7d4887b2623a62c7f722f718b", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0047", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=3470s", "time_label": "57:50", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0048", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "start": 3550.45, "end": 3631.37, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "three, their kids were learning how to swim, how to row boats, how to cook, how to hunt, how to fight, how to ride horses. Does that make sense? And what are civilized kids doing? They're learning how to do test questions. Right? In a war, who's going to win? Well, obviously these guys. Okay? Does that make sense? So these are the, this is the idea of the oceanic currents. Okay? You have these isolated areas that are ecosystems amongst themselves. As the empire expands, okay, just think of it as a current, the imperial current. It's expanding, expanding. And so that's what empires do. It energizes these areas. And these areas actually have much more energetic potential than the empire, which is dying. Okay? And this energy forces so much energy in this borderland that they are now become like a hurricane. And they have to ride through history. Sometimes they're defeated. But sometimes, like the Greeks, like the Vikings, like the Mongolians, like the Arabians, they win.", "word_count": 170, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-001", "start": 3550.45, "end": 3552.45, "text": "three, their kids were learning how to swim,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-002", "start": 3552.59, "end": 3554.43, "text": "how to row boats, how to cook,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-003", "start": 3554.57, "end": 3556.07, "text": "how to hunt, how to fight,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-004", "start": 3556.21, "end": 3557.11, "text": "how to ride horses.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-005", "start": 3558.07, "end": 3558.81, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-006", "start": 3560.22, "end": 3563.78, "text": "And what are civilized kids doing?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-007", "start": 3564.02, "end": 3566.08, "text": "They're learning how to do test questions.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-008", "start": 3567.62, "end": 3569.14, "text": "Right? In a war, who's going to win?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-009", "start": 3570.17, "end": 3571.59, "text": "Well, obviously these guys.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-010", "start": 3573.37, "end": 3574.67, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-011", "start": 3578.97, "end": 3582.45, "text": "So these are the, this is the idea of the oceanic currents.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-012", "start": 3582.61, "end": 3588.9, "text": "Okay? You have these isolated areas that are ecosystems amongst themselves.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-013", "start": 3590.06, "end": 3593, "text": "As the empire expands, okay,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-014", "start": 3593.04, "end": 3594.7, "text": "just think of it as a current,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-015", "start": 3594.82, "end": 3596.08, "text": "the imperial current.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-016", "start": 3596.22, "end": 3596.96, "text": "It's expanding, expanding.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-017", "start": 3597.18, "end": 3598.14, "text": "And so that's what empires do.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-018", "start": 3598.36, "end": 3601.52, "text": "It energizes these areas.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-019", "start": 3601.82, "end": 3606.56, "text": "And these areas actually have much more energetic potential than the empire,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-020", "start": 3606.76, "end": 3607.28, "text": "which is dying.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-021", "start": 3607.5, "end": 3614.2, "text": "Okay? And this energy forces so much energy in this borderland that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-022", "start": 3614.2, "end": 3616.08, "text": "they are now become like a hurricane.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-023", "start": 3616.36, "end": 3618.28, "text": "And they have to ride through history.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-024", "start": 3618.54, "end": 3619.5, "text": "Sometimes they're defeated.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-025", "start": 3619.72, "end": 3622.97, "text": "But sometimes, like the Greeks,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-026", "start": 3624.02, "end": 3624.58, "text": "like", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-027", "start": 3624.58, "end": 3627.96, "text": "the Vikings, like the Mongolians,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-028", "start": 3628.04, "end": 3631.37, "text": "like the Arabians, they win.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "d2e249ff05b993cf127c83e136aeeedfed32e42b0b270a437c53414c1a41d293", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0048", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=3550s", "time_label": "59:10", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0049", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "start": 3632.11, "end": 3699.27, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And when they win, they create a lot of destruction. Okay? And that's the idea I want you to implant in your head. These are currents. These are natural forces that are unstoppable. Once they start, you cannot stop them. Okay? This war in Ukraine, it is a hurricane that will engulf all of Europe. This war in the Middle East, it's a hurricane that will engulf the entire world. Once it starts, you can't have a conference and decide to end it. These things cannot end until they reach their natural course. Okay? The hurricane stops when it runs out of energy. Does that make sense? The hurricane does not negotiate with you and say, oh, well, you make a very good case for why I shouldn't destroy you, so I'll just stop. Hurricanes don't do that. Okay? These are natural forces. All right? And this is what I will show you this semester.", "word_count": 155, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-001", "start": 3632.11, "end": 3635.83, "text": "And when they win, they create a lot of destruction.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-002", "start": 3636.09, "end": 3641.8, "text": "Okay? And that's the idea I want you to implant in your", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-003", "start": 3641.8, "end": 3643.66, "text": "head. These are currents.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-004", "start": 3644.5, "end": 3649.56, "text": "These are natural forces that are unstoppable.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-005", "start": 3649.92, "end": 3652.76, "text": "Once they start, you cannot stop them.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-006", "start": 3653.83, "end": 3655.37, "text": "Okay? This war in Ukraine,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-007", "start": 3655.73, "end": 3659.67, "text": "it is a hurricane that will engulf all of Europe.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-008", "start": 3660.34, "end": 3661.82, "text": "This war in the Middle East,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-009", "start": 3661.96, "end": 3664.14, "text": "it's a hurricane that will engulf the entire world.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-010", "start": 3664.3, "end": 3668.92, "text": "Once it starts, you can't have a conference and decide to end", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-011", "start": 3668.92, "end": 3673.04, "text": "it. These things cannot end until they reach their natural course.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-012", "start": 3673.24, "end": 3677.14, "text": "Okay? The hurricane stops when it runs out of energy.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-013", "start": 3677.14, "end": 3678.72, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-014", "start": 3680.94, "end": 3682.96, "text": "The hurricane does not negotiate with you and say,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-015", "start": 3683.04, "end": 3687.22, "text": "oh, well, you make a very good case for why I shouldn't", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-016", "start": 3687.22, "end": 3688.78, "text": "destroy you, so I'll just stop.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-017", "start": 3689.56, "end": 3690.54, "text": "Hurricanes don't do that.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-018", "start": 3691.37, "end": 3692.71, "text": "Okay? These are natural forces.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-019", "start": 3696.05, "end": 3696.55, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-020", "start": 3696.59, "end": 3697.41, "text": "And this is what I", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-021", "start": 3697.41, "end": 3699.27, "text": "will show you this semester.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "e312cffa455976220dceb4aae3f5b03e7aaca33435c337e782c87495455474cd", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0049", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=3632s", "time_label": "1:00:32", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0050", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "start": 3699.57, "end": 3784, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And I will also show you how this connects to current events. And then, once we do that, we should be able to predict current events. And just to let you know, spoiler alert, things will not end well. Okay? We are looking at the complete and utter destruction of the world we live in today. Nothing will be the same because these are oceanic currents. They destroy everything in its path. Once you unleash them, they must destroy. It's only a question of how much. All right? All right. Was this clear to you guys? Any questions? Anything you want me to clarify or elaborate? Again, I know this is a big theory, but we will be doing a lot of examples throughout the course of the semester. All right? And this will give you a unified theory of history. And you'll see how everything connects together. All right? Any questions? Oh, that's a good question.", "word_count": 157, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-001", "start": 3699.57, "end": 3702.37, "text": "And I will also show you how this connects to current events.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-002", "start": 3703.21, "end": 3704.81, "text": "And then, once we do that,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-003", "start": 3704.93, "end": 3707.51, "text": "we should be able to predict current events.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-004", "start": 3708.33, "end": 3710.21, "text": "And just to let you know,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-005", "start": 3710.29, "end": 3714.34, "text": "spoiler alert, things will not end well.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-006", "start": 3715.36, "end": 3719.66, "text": "Okay? We are looking at the complete and utter destruction of the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-007", "start": 3719.66, "end": 3720.42, "text": "world we live in today.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-008", "start": 3721.29, "end": 3727.07, "text": "Nothing will be the same because these are oceanic currents.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-009", "start": 3727.23, "end": 3728.43, "text": "They destroy everything in its path.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-010", "start": 3729.06, "end": 3731.44, "text": "Once you unleash them, they must destroy.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-011", "start": 3733.5, "end": 3734.94, "text": "It's only a question of how much.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-012", "start": 3736.48, "end": 3736.96, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-013", "start": 3739.32, "end": 3739.86, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-014", "start": 3741.05, "end": 3742.11, "text": "Was this clear to you guys?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-015", "start": 3743.12, "end": 3743.88, "text": "Any questions?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-016", "start": 3745.99, "end": 3749.01, "text": "Anything you want me to clarify or elaborate?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-017", "start": 3749.67, "end": 3751.51, "text": "Again, I know this is a big theory,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-018", "start": 3751.69, "end": 3754.97, "text": "but we will be doing a lot of examples throughout the course", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-019", "start": 3754.97, "end": 3755.47, "text": "of the semester.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-020", "start": 3755.87, "end": 3756.37, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-021", "start": 3756.43, "end": 3761.4, "text": "And this will give you a unified theory of history.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-022", "start": 3761.85, "end": 3763.69, "text": "And you'll see how everything connects together.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-023", "start": 3764.81, "end": 3765.29, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-024", "start": 3765.71, "end": 3766.37, "text": "Any questions?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-025", "start": 3782.78, "end": 3783.66, "text": "Oh, that's a", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-026", "start": 3783.66, "end": 3784, "text": "good question.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "689707eec4c8356db055fc6392af4555014a7079e03e77a4a0c26de0e701b697", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0050", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=3699s", "time_label": "1:01:39", "tags": [ "monologue", "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0051", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "start": 3784.08, "end": 3850.58, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay. What starts these hurricanes? Or what starts this process? All right. So, if you look at an ocean, you will discover that these currents are happening all the time. You understand? There's no start. They're always in motion. All right? So, once you start an empire, you're starting already to unleash a hurricane in the borderlands. Once the hurricane matures in the borderlands, it will overwhelm an empire, which will then start to energize a new borderland. Does that make sense? So, that's a really good question. And unfortunately, the answer is there will always be hurricanes. Hurricanes are always forming. You just have to figure out where they're forming in order to predict where they're coming from. Okay? But obviously, the two big hurricanes right now are what's happening in Ukraine and what's happening in Israel, in the Middle East. Okay? But, other hurricanes are coming. Okay? For example, there will eventually be a conflict in East Asia.", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-001", "start": 3784.08, "end": 3786.5, "text": "Okay. What starts these hurricanes?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-002", "start": 3786.76, "end": 3788.24, "text": "Or what starts this process?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-003", "start": 3788.94, "end": 3789.5, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-004", "start": 3789.52, "end": 3790.78, "text": "So, if you look at an ocean,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-005", "start": 3791.6, "end": 3794.2, "text": "you will discover that these currents are happening all the time.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-006", "start": 3794.84, "end": 3795.42, "text": "You understand?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-007", "start": 3795.42, "end": 3796.66, "text": "There's no start.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-008", "start": 3796.94, "end": 3798.1, "text": "They're always in motion.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-009", "start": 3799.21, "end": 3799.95, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-010", "start": 3800.01, "end": 3801.85, "text": "So, once you start an empire,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-011", "start": 3802.63, "end": 3808.01, "text": "you're starting already to unleash a hurricane in the borderlands.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-012", "start": 3808.51, "end": 3811.21, "text": "Once the hurricane matures in the borderlands,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-013", "start": 3811.29, "end": 3812.25, "text": "it will overwhelm an empire,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-014", "start": 3812.49, "end": 3815.31, "text": "which will then start to energize a new borderland.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-015", "start": 3815.76, "end": 3816.62, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-016", "start": 3817.46, "end": 3819.84, "text": "So, that's a really good question.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-017", "start": 3820.42, "end": 3824.68, "text": "And unfortunately, the answer is there will always be hurricanes.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-018", "start": 3824.82, "end": 3826.26, "text": "Hurricanes are always forming.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-019", "start": 3826.26, "end": 3829.52, "text": "You just have to figure out where they're forming in order to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-020", "start": 3829.52, "end": 3830.62, "text": "predict where they're coming from.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-021", "start": 3830.78, "end": 3835.11, "text": "Okay? But obviously, the two big hurricanes right now are what's happening", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-022", "start": 3836.79, "end": 3839.63, "text": "in Ukraine and what's happening in Israel,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-023", "start": 3839.75, "end": 3840.47, "text": "in the Middle East.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-024", "start": 3840.83, "end": 3844.47, "text": "Okay? But, other hurricanes are coming.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-025", "start": 3844.71, "end": 3850.12, "text": "Okay? For example, there will eventually be a conflict in", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-026", "start": 3850.12, "end": 3850.58, "text": "East Asia.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "49ca75452fa2881e2094a7f49850502cc91df6da4d91bb6db302134c0cf2632a", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0051", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=3784s", "time_label": "1:03:04", "tags": [ "exchange", "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0052", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "start": 3851.3, "end": 3909.23, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "All right? Now, a lot of people are saying the conflict will be between China and the U.S. I do not think that's the case. I do not think the conflict will be between the United States and China. I think it will involve Japan and South Korea. All right? It will not be over the Taiwan Strait. It will be between it will involve South Korea and Japan. How, so I don't really know. Okay? Another conflict is what's happening in America. America is itself a hurricane. Eventually, America will have to fight a civil war. And when you go to America, you will see how divided the country is. All right? And people are already predicting a civil war. It's only a question of when. I think things will speed up in 2028. And the reason why is the election in 2028 will be heavily contested. People are going to argue over who won. And it will be very unclear who won in 2028.", "word_count": 167, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-001", "start": 3851.3, "end": 3851.88, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-002", "start": 3852.02, "end": 3854.08, "text": "Now, a lot of people are saying the conflict will be between", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-003", "start": 3856.66, "end": 3857.2, "text": "China and the U.S.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-004", "start": 3857.2, "end": 3859.1, "text": "I do not think that's the case.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-005", "start": 3859.6, "end": 3864.92, "text": "I do not think the conflict will be between the United States", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-006", "start": 3864.92, "end": 3865.32, "text": "and China.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-007", "start": 3865.54, "end": 3867.52, "text": "I think it will involve Japan and South Korea.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-008", "start": 3868.58, "end": 3869.08, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-009", "start": 3869.32, "end": 3871, "text": "It will not be over the Taiwan Strait.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-010", "start": 3871.1, "end": 3873.7, "text": "It will be between it will involve South Korea and Japan.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-011", "start": 3873.92, "end": 3874.9, "text": "How, so I don't really know.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-012", "start": 3874.98, "end": 3877.08, "text": "Okay? Another conflict is what's happening in America.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-013", "start": 3878.06, "end": 3881.89, "text": "America is itself a hurricane.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-014", "start": 3882.93, "end": 3884.99, "text": "Eventually, America will have to fight a civil war.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-015", "start": 3885.96, "end": 3887.02, "text": "And when you go to America,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-016", "start": 3887.14, "end": 3889.2, "text": "you will see how divided the country is.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-017", "start": 3889.92, "end": 3891.2, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-018", "start": 3891.32, "end": 3893.1, "text": "And people are already predicting a civil war.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-019", "start": 3893.24, "end": 3894.92, "text": "It's only a question of when.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-020", "start": 3895.18, "end": 3897.64, "text": "I think things will speed up in 2028.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-021", "start": 3898.02, "end": 3903.32, "text": "And the reason why is the election in 2028 will be heavily", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-022", "start": 3903.32, "end": 3907.41, "text": "contested. People are going to argue over who won.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-023", "start": 3907.57, "end": 3907.83, "text": "And", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-024", "start": 3907.83, "end": 3909.23, "text": "it will be very unclear who won in 2028.", "word_count": 9 } ], "text_sha256": "24d3eaa34d5784db9af2292583c6081e7ca7ffcbd84b54a85454441afc7bd3e5", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0052", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=3851s", "time_label": "1:04:11", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0053", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "start": 3909.99, "end": 3990.1, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And there's a very good chance Trump will run again in 2028. Okay? But I, but I think these are two big hurricanes that are coming along the way. Not now, but they're coming along along the way. The big scary hurricane, of course, is Iran. Okay? Eventually, the United States and Iran will come in conflict with each other. Okay? And this will drag in the entire world. All right? Does that make sense to you, Eva? Okay. Thanks for the question. Okay. Any more questions? Until it overwhelms the empire. That's a great question. Okay? All right. So we have to figure out what is driving the hurricane. And the answer is the internal conflicts within the borderlands. Okay? Does that make sense? So there's just too many people and there's just not enough status positions. So they go off and they conquer their own territory. So if you look at the Vikings, okay, the Vikings, the Vikings are interesting.", "word_count": 162, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-001", "start": 3909.99, "end": 3913.5, "text": "And there's a very good chance Trump will run again in 2028.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-002", "start": 3914.43, "end": 3920.9, "text": "Okay? But I, but I think these are two big hurricanes that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-003", "start": 3920.9, "end": 3922.02, "text": "are coming along the way.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-004", "start": 3922.08, "end": 3924.06, "text": "Not now, but they're coming along along the way.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-005", "start": 3925, "end": 3926.96, "text": "The big scary hurricane, of course,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-006", "start": 3927, "end": 3927.52, "text": "is Iran.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-007", "start": 3928.04, "end": 3931, "text": "Okay? 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Any more questions?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-015", "start": 3956.81, "end": 3957.89, "text": "Until it overwhelms the empire.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-016", "start": 3967.5, "end": 3968.32, "text": "That's a great question.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-017", "start": 3968.38, "end": 3969.58, "text": "Okay? All right.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-018", "start": 3969.62, "end": 3972.9, "text": "So we have to figure out what is driving the hurricane.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-019", "start": 3973.38, "end": 3977.18, "text": "And the answer is the internal conflicts within the borderlands.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-020", "start": 3977.7, "end": 3978.54, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-021", "start": 3978.94, "end": 3983.44, "text": "So there's just too many people and there's just not enough status", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-022", "start": 3983.44, "end": 3986.96, "text": "positions. 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And for most of human history, we had actually no idea they were there. Okay? They were in the north in Denmark, in Norway, in Sweden. And they basically kept to themselves. They still traded the world, but we didn't really know much about them. They didn't come out of nowhere. And they did three things. They went over to colonize Greenland and Iceland. All right? And they also went to actually North America. So they were actually the first Europeans to reach North America. So one side that they had was to expand and explore and colonize. Okay? But then you also had a group of Vikings, Northmen, who went to attack France. And they were so, such a huge problem that the French decided to give them called Normandy. Okay? Normandy. The land of the North people.", "word_count": 150, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-001", "start": 3990.7, "end": 3992.58, "text": "The Vikings, which we'll discuss a lot,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-002", "start": 3992.84, "end": 3993.6, "text": "they're in Northern Europe.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-003", "start": 3993.78, "end": 3995.14, "text": "And for most of human history,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-004", "start": 3995.36, "end": 3997.44, "text": "we had actually no idea they were there.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-005", "start": 3997.58, "end": 4000.08, "text": "Okay? They were in the north in Denmark,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-006", "start": 4000.76, "end": 4002.08, "text": "in Norway, in Sweden.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-007", "start": 4002.86, "end": 4004.46, "text": "And they basically kept to themselves.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-008", "start": 4004.6, "end": 4005.56, "text": "They still traded the world,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-009", "start": 4005.62, "end": 4007.04, "text": "but we didn't really know much about them.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-010", "start": 4008.38, "end": 4008.94, "text": "They didn't come out of nowhere.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-011", "start": 4010.06, "end": 4011.34, "text": "And they did three things.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-012", "start": 4011.5, "end": 4016.3, "text": "They went over to colonize Greenland and Iceland.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-013", "start": 4017.2, "end": 4017.82, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-014", "start": 4017.88, "end": 4020.46, "text": "And they also went to actually North America.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-015", "start": 4020.64, "end": 4022.88, "text": "So they were actually the first Europeans to reach North America.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-016", "start": 4023.5, "end": 4027.96, "text": "So one side that they had was to expand and explore and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-017", "start": 4027.96, "end": 4028.56, "text": "colonize. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-018", "start": 4029.12, "end": 4030.98, "text": "But then you also had a group of Vikings,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-019", "start": 4031.2, "end": 4033.34, "text": "Northmen, who went to attack France.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-020", "start": 4034.3, "end": 4038.38, "text": "And they were so, such a huge problem that the French decided", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-021", "start": 4038.38, "end": 4041.52, "text": "to give them called Normandy.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-022", "start": 4041.74, "end": 4043.12, "text": "Okay? Normandy.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-023", "start": 4043.26, "end": 4044.4, "text": "The land of the North", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-024", "start": 4044.4, "end": 4044.91, "text": "people.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "90469d6c14737ffdba61b2ac050bbb2ff0f465431db6f8059c585e85b82532ec", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0054", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=3990s", "time_label": "1:06:30", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0055", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "start": 4044.91, "end": 4121.882, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Normandy. All right? And then they went over here to Ukraine along the river because they were trading with the Islamic Empire. And they founded colonies or new settlements. And this was a peaceful process. Okay? Because they were trying to establish trading posts. And this became the basis of which country do you guys know? Russia. Okay? You see, people will call it the Rus'. I actually don't know what Rus' means but it just means Rus'. And that's where Russia comes from. So this is the beginning of a new country called Russia. All right? And Normandy is interesting because they eventually went off to conquer a new country called, do you guys know who they conquered? Who did the Normans conquer? 1066 guys. England. Britain. All right? You understand? So, the hurricane stops when the people just run out of energy because they've reached a point where they can't go on. Okay?", "word_count": 155, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-001", "start": 4044.91, "end": 4045.42, "text": "Normandy.", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-002", "start": 4046.34, "end": 4046.8, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-003", "start": 4047.36, "end": 4055.7, "text": "And then they went over here to Ukraine along the river because", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-004", "start": 4055.7, "end": 4059.32, "text": "they were trading with the Islamic Empire.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-005", "start": 4060.32, "end": 4063.56, "text": "And they founded colonies or new settlements.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-006", "start": 4063.88, "end": 4066.62, "text": "And this was a peaceful process.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-007", "start": 4067.16, "end": 4070.19, "text": "Okay? Because they were trying to establish trading posts.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-008", "start": 4070.67, "end": 4073.71, "text": "And this became the basis of which country do you guys know?", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-009", "start": 4075.19, "end": 4077.64, "text": "Russia. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-010", "start": 4078.08, "end": 4079.96, "text": "You see, people will call it the Rus'.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-011", "start": 4079.96, "end": 4082.7, "text": "I actually don't know what Rus' means but it just means Rus'.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-012", "start": 4082.7, "end": 4083.66, "text": "And that's where Russia comes from.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-013", "start": 4083.98, "end": 4086.64, "text": "So this is the beginning of a new country called Russia.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-014", "start": 4087.28, "end": 4087.9, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-015", "start": 4087.96, "end": 4092.84, "text": "And Normandy is interesting because they eventually went off to conquer a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-016", "start": 4092.84, "end": 4096.44, "text": "new country called, do you guys know who they conquered?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-017", "start": 4096.92, "end": 4098.52, "text": "Who did the Normans conquer?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-018", "start": 4103.78, "end": 4104.66, "text": "1066 guys.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-019", "start": 4106.9, "end": 4108.69, "text": "England. Britain.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-020", "start": 4109.47, "end": 4110.17, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-021", "start": 4110.23, "end": 4110.81, "text": "You understand?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-022", "start": 4113.61, "end": 4118.25, "text": "So, the hurricane stops when the people just run out of energy", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-023", "start": 4118.25, "end": 4121.07, "text": "because they've reached a point where they can't go on.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-024", "start": 4121.17, "end": 4121.882, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "2b090d6858efba0f6e8195f9bb0dafc788efe2c49cc13c51b821bf85a4f24667", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0055", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=4044s", "time_label": "1:07:24", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0056", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "start": 4121.882, "end": 4195.189, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "The hurricane is created because they have wealth, power, but they don't have enough status positions so that they expand to fill these status positions. Okay? This is actually what drives empire building. Does that make sense? It's not because you lack resources. It's because who want status and you can't fill them, you can't leave them in society because then they will overthrow you. So you send them somewhere else. Okay? All right? Good. Is that clear, Echo? Great. Any more questions? Great. Okay. So, I hope this was clear. We will continue discussing this throughout the semester because this becomes a framework for which we understand all of European history for the past 2,000 years. So next class, we'll do the Roman Empire, the fall and decline of the Roman Empire which will lead us into the rise of something called the Holy Roman Empire which is not the Roman Empire. Okay? It's basically the French Empire. Okay? Or the Frankish Empire.", "word_count": 165, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-001", "start": 4121.882, "end": 4127.79, "text": "The hurricane is created because they have wealth, power,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-002", "start": 4128.43, "end": 4133.19, "text": "but they don't have enough status positions so that they expand to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-003", "start": 4133.19, "end": 4133.97, "text": "fill these status positions.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-004", "start": 4134.27, "end": 4136.81, "text": "Okay? This is actually what drives empire building.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-005", "start": 4137.01, "end": 4137.77, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-006", "start": 4140.97, "end": 4142.61, "text": "It's not because you lack resources.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-007", "start": 4144.21, "end": 4147.25, "text": "It's because who want status and you can't fill them,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-008", "start": 4147.43, "end": 4150.55, "text": "you can't leave them in society because then they will overthrow you.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-009", "start": 4150.65, "end": 4151.69, "text": "So you send them somewhere else.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-010", "start": 4151.91, "end": 4155.97, "text": "Okay? All right?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-011", "start": 4156.41, "end": 4158.11, "text": "Good. Is that clear, Echo?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-012", "start": 4158.55, "end": 4159.73, "text": "Great. Any more questions?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-013", "start": 4164.2, "end": 4164.9, "text": "Great. Okay.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-014", "start": 4165.06, "end": 4167.38, "text": "So, I hope this was clear.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-015", "start": 4167.9, "end": 4174.48, "text": "We will continue discussing this throughout the semester because this becomes a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-016", "start": 4174.48, "end": 4177.68, "text": "framework for which we understand all of European history for the past", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-017", "start": 4177.68, "end": 4178.18, "text": "2,000 years.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-018", "start": 4178.72, "end": 4181.02, "text": "So next class, we'll do the Roman Empire,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-019", "start": 4181.18, "end": 4183.78, "text": "the fall and decline of the Roman Empire which will lead us", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-020", "start": 4184.66, "end": 4188.62, "text": "into the rise of something called the Holy Roman Empire which is", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-021", "start": 4188.62, "end": 4189.42, "text": "not the Roman Empire.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-022", "start": 4189.64, "end": 4191.7, "text": "Okay? 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Great.", "word_count": 26, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-001", "start": 4195.189, "end": 4200.79, "text": "And the Frankish Empire will lead to the rise of the", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-002", "start": 4200.79, "end": 4204.28, "text": "Vikings. All right?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-003", "start": 4205.32, "end": 4205.7, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-004", "start": 4205.74, "end": 4207.44, "text": "So those are the next three classes.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-005", "start": 4207.94, "end": 4208.6, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-006", "start": 4208.96, "end": 4209.44, "text": "Great.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "8c6b1e2e8b023169f863506a6e5f3a88ba9170381c05f9b03adc18e24dcb6adc", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk/transcript/#seg-0057", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk&t=4195s", "time_label": "1:09:55", "tags": [ "monologue" ] } ], "interactions": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang opens the semester by naming three live conflicts: Ukraine, the Middle East, and a possible Iran-centered escalation that could draw in Russia, China, India, and East Asian energy interests.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.05, "end": 83.38, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, good morning. So welcome to the first class of the second semester. 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But second is, if you look at a map, Iran is really the center of the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He defines the third conflict as the United States against the world: Pax Americana created prosperity by protecting trade but also created resentment through unipolar military and economic dominance.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 317.35, "end": 395.04, "time_label": "5:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "There are these geopolitical factors, as I've discussed, but there are also these religious factors that we looked into a bit last semester, but I will explain more this semester, okay? And then the third and final conf..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 395.76, "end": 479.02, "time_label": "6:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "China would not have grown as fast as China did without the Pax Americana. It is American ships, American warships, that allow Chinese ships to sail safely around the world, to deliver goods around the world. But this u..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He states the course method: enough history should let students understand current events and predict future movement, then introduces the older cyclical model of history.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 481.11, "end": 564.22, "time_label": "8:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Canada, Mexico, quite possibly, very quickly, the European Union, and the United States is already at economic war with Russia and China, okay? So we will go, this semester, we will also discuss this semester why this i..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 564.9, "end": 627.84, "time_label": "9:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And in the past, there have been two main models for understanding historical development. Okay, so the first is the idea of a cycle or a circle. And this makes sense, right? Because this mirrors what we experience in l..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang explains a Greek-Roman political cycle in which people, nobility, and king continually realign: oligarchy creates debt slavery, a king clears debts, monarchy decays, democracy forms, and wealthy speakers recreate oligarchy.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 627.84, "end": 727.88, "time_label": "10:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "time, for a variety of reasons, because of corruption, because there's a bad emperor, they lose the mandate of heaven, which allows a rebellion, which then creates a new dynasty. So Chinese history is almost a continuou..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 729.35, "end": 803.29, "time_label": "12:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? so these are the three major forces or factions in a society and these three factions are always in conflict and what happens is a changing alliance where the two of the three get together to beat one okay and the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 803.29, "end": 864.02, "time_label": "13:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "a loan and over time this loan becomes a debt and at a certain point you can't pay off the debt so what happens you become my slave and your children become my slave as well okay so this creates a lot of conflict in soc..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 864.02, "end": 927.84, "time_label": "14:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for the fact that he cleared away their debts this this is what we call jubilee by the way the word is jubilee and this happens a lot in human history but the problem is the king has a son who's not so good and then the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 927.84, "end": 981.25, "time_label": "15:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "government okay when the nobility is in charge in an Arlarchy when but then a king and the people work together or throw in a create a monarchy and then they and the king becomes corrupt and so the nobility and the peop..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He maps the cycle onto contemporary America by reading Trump as a would-be king who appeals to the people against corrupt elites.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 927.84, "end": 981.25, "time_label": "15:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "government okay when the nobility is in charge in an Arlarchy when but then a king and the people work together or throw in a create a monarchy and then they and the king becomes corrupt and so the nobility and the peop..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 981.25, "end": 1023.65, "time_label": "16:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history four years his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history so that's idea of a cycle right we also have so that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He turns to the line model: history as progress toward truth, illustrated through the Hebrew Bible, Virgil, Pax Romana, and Fukuyama.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 981.25, "end": 1023.65, "time_label": "16:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history four years his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history so that's idea of a cycle right we also have so that..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1023.65, "end": 1105.56, "time_label": "17:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "on us in a useless cycle it is moving towards a truth is moving towards a good end okay so then this idea has been around for a very long time remember in the Bible but when King David first sponsored rhyme a Bible the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1105.56, "end": 1171.25, "time_label": "18:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "wars that will eventually lead to the rise of Augustus Caesar and this will create something called the Pax Romana and this is the end of history this is where all movement ends because once you achieve the Pax Romana t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang says Christian line-history is aimed at the second coming and argues that Christian Zionist end-times belief is one driver of Middle East conflict.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1171.71, "end": 1250.54, "time_label": "19:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We no longer have to argue about this. Everyone should try to be a liberal consumer democracy, including China. And if everyone became a consumer liberal democracy, there will be no more war. We won't want to fight beca..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1250.56, "end": 1324.7, "time_label": "20:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "is that this idea, it sounds like a simple idea, but this idea is what's driving a lot of the conflict in the Middle East. Believe it or not, but there are millions of Christians, they're called Christian Zionists by th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He presents Hegel as a line-model variation: ideas conflict dialectically and are transformed into new ideas, influencing Marxism.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1325.36, "end": 1398.988, "time_label": "22:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Alright? Now, what's important for us to understand is that these are the two basic frameworks of history. But there are variations to these two basic models. Okay? So for example, Hegel. We'll discuss Friedrich Hegel l..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1398.988, "end": 1481.27, "time_label": "23:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But it's like this almost. Right? There's an idea, something comes into conflict and this leads to a new idea which then leads to a new idea. Okay? But he still believes that we are progressing towards the truth through..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He rejects cycle and line as insufficiently predictive, defines truth as explanation plus prediction, introduces oceanic currents, and starts building culture as meta-reality.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1398.988, "end": 1481.27, "time_label": "23:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But it's like this almost. Right? There's an idea, something comes into conflict and this leads to a new idea which then leads to a new idea. Okay? But he still believes that we are progressing towards the truth through..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1482.29, "end": 1568.5, "time_label": "24:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It's a much more complicated model than these two models. But I think it is much more useful in helping us predict the causes of historical development. Okay? I want to argue why these two models don't really work..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1570.39, "end": 1635.17, "time_label": "26:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And for me, this is frustrating because if the history is any good, if the history is accurate, then it should help us predict the future. Or at least better understand the present. Okay? So the idea of truth. What is t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1635.7, "end": 1711.878, "time_label": "27:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it helps us also predict what will happen. Okay? And this model is what I call the oceanic currents of history. Imagine the world as a huge ocean. And within each ocean, there's an ecosystem, which has currents. And..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1711.878, "end": 1794.43, "time_label": "28:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "What I want to show you is the world is divided into cultural ecosystems. Cultural ecosystems. This is a really important idea you need to know for the rest of the semester. What I will argue is that culture is the meta..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang uses a thought experiment to argue that culture persists more deeply than technology: an ancient Chinese person could adapt to modern China faster than a modern Chinese person could become culturally German.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1795.64, "end": 1858.69, "time_label": "29:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right? Now, in 2,000 years, China has changed a lot. Right? We now have the Internet. We have computers. We have cell phones. We have skyscrapers. We have cars. We have roads. Okay? So China has changed a lot in the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1858.69, "end": 1928.27, "time_label": "30:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "time to learn how to use a cell phone and how to use a computer and how to drive a car, but he can do so. Does that make sense? Now, let's do another experiment. Let's take a random guy from China today and put him in G..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1929.3, "end": 2004.34, "time_label": "32:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "This thought experiment, I hope, shows you the persistence of culture. It's the most important part of who you are. It drives everything else. It drives how you see the world. It drives how you interact with others. Oka..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He divides the world into cultural ecosystems shaped by geography, history, and demographics, including Europe, the Middle East, the steppes, China, and India.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1929.3, "end": 2004.34, "time_label": "32:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "This thought experiment, I hope, shows you the persistence of culture. It's the most important part of who you are. It drives everything else. It drives how you see the world. It drives how you interact with others. Oka..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2007.34, "end": 2113.999, "time_label": "33:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And then you have the steppes. Okay? So remember the steppes are this grassland, this ocean of grassland that basically extends from Hungary to Mongolia. Okay? And then you have China, India. Okay? So there are these di..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He introduces the empire-borderland pattern: empires encounter borderlands, trade with them, hire them, raid them, energize them, and eventually may be conquered by them.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2007.34, "end": 2113.999, "time_label": "33:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And then you have the steppes. Okay? So remember the steppes are this grassland, this ocean of grassland that basically extends from Hungary to Mongolia. Okay? And then you have China, India. Okay? So there are these di..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2113.999, "end": 2196.19, "time_label": "35:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How were the Mongolians and the Manchus able to conquer the Chinese Empire? All right? And what I will show you this semester is when this happens, when an empire is conquered, the pattern is the same. There's a consist..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2196.19, "end": 2267.5, "time_label": "36:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? In three ways. The first and the first most simple way that they interact is through trade. Okay? They trade with each other. Second way they interact is through military cooperation. So what often happens is the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2267.5, "end": 2343.94, "time_label": "37:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The north mid. So these are all isolated parts. But as the empire expands, they start to interact with these isolated ecosystems. And when they interact, what happens is these borderlands become energized. Okay? It's li..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2345.28, "end": 2408.03, "time_label": "39:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They're like the stuff of legend and myth. When the empire expands, it energizes these borderlands. The energy makes these borderlands more wealthy, more populated, and more militarily sophisticated. That creates confli..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0036" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang names three collapse conditions and starts with financialism: capital shifts from producing goods to seeking rents, monopoly, and higher returns in financial assets than in the real economy.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2408.21, "end": 2499.003, "time_label": "40:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How is it possible for the borderlands, which, again, is only a fraction of the wealth, the population and the resources of the empire, how were they able to conquer the empire? And this is a really important lesson you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2499.003, "end": 2580.44, "time_label": "41:39", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I'm creating wealth for the society. Right? You can also do that by building a factory. But over time, what happens is you eventually realize that it's more profitable for you to lend money than to build things. Does th..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2580.48, "end": 2672.72, "time_label": "43:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? So, the example is, okay, there are five restaurants in Beijing. They're obviously trying to compete against each other for customers. So, they lower prices and try to create better food. But event..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2672.72, "end": 2742.68, "time_label": "44:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? On average, if you put $100 in the stock market, you make $5. All right? But the return on the real economy is only 2%. Meaning, if you start a factory and you hire people, or you start a restaurant, which contrib..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He argues financialized societies stop producing value and turn to war as a reset mechanism that destroys things so they can be rebuilt.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2672.72, "end": 2742.68, "time_label": "44:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? On average, if you put $100 in the stock market, you make $5. All right? But the return on the real economy is only 2%. Meaning, if you start a factory and you hire people, or you start a restaurant, which contrib..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2744.33, "end": 2815.9, "time_label": "45:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And when you're in this situation, what are you forced to do now? If you're a society and you want to continue, what are you forced to do? See me? No. What do you do? Historically, what have societies done in order to g..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2816.38, "end": 2887.14, "time_label": "46:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right now in the West, it's the same thing as well. And at that point, you have no choice but to start a war to reset your society. Or your society will continue to decline. So the first boundary condition, war societie..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He introduces rat utopia as the second condition: abundance destroys ritual and social order when status pathways break down.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2816.38, "end": 2887.14, "time_label": "46:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right now in the West, it's the same thing as well. And at that point, you have no choice but to start a war to reset your society. Or your society will continue to decline. So the first boundary condition, war societie..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2887.38, "end": 2955.93, "time_label": "48:07", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the male rat starts to chase the female rat. The female rat runs back into her burrow, her home, and hides. The male rat has to stand outside and wait for the female rat to come out. When she comes out, she will sta..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2956.13, "end": 3019.36, "time_label": "49:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Everyday food would come down from the heavens. And all the rats could do whatever they want. They would have complete freedom. This is what we call rat utopia. It turned out all society collapsed. It was a complete dis..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang translates rat utopia into human status competition: if old elites never leave the mountaintop, young people wait in line, lose motivation, lie flat, and stop marrying or reproducing.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 3020.8, "end": 3068, "time_label": "50:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How this game works is people on the mountaintop have to fall off and die in order for other people to climb up. Does that make sense? But what happens when the people on the mountaintop don't die? Well, you're just stu..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3068.22, "end": 3136.32, "time_label": "51:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And they're not dying. So what are young people doing? Tengping, Bailan, right? Quiet quitting. Lying flat. Because you don't see any opportunities. What you want is not money. What you want is status. And that requires..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He defines elite overproduction as the status crisis among the haves, where too many elite children compete for too few positions and can turn conflict into civil war.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3138.14, "end": 3208.09, "time_label": "52:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does that make sense? Any questions before I continue? Are you guys clear about this? And the third boundary condition is the idea of elite overproduction. What is elite overproduction? Well, it's the same as radi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3208.29, "end": 3291.12, "time_label": "53:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "This creates civil war. In fact, if you are to look at America today, you can say there's a civil war going on between two different factions of the elite. Okay? Does that make sense? And this is what drives a lot of hi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He applies the boundary conditions to empire: debt, landlessness, elite corruption, and civil conflict push empires to import borderland soldiers who may eventually take over.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3208.29, "end": 3291.12, "time_label": "53:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "This creates civil war. In fact, if you are to look at America today, you can say there's a civil war going on between two different factions of the elite. Okay? Does that make sense? And this is what drives a lot of hi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3291.12, "end": 3365.66, "time_label": "54:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "human history, empires that have persisted for the longest have this huge problem where the majority of the population suffers from too much debt and suffers from too much landlessness. No opportunities. Okay? Then what..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3365.72, "end": 3470.52, "time_label": "56:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You hire foreign mercenaries. Right? That's what China does. Or that's what China did in its history. You can't trust your own army, so you hire foreign mercenaries. And eventually what happens is you replace your army..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He shifts to borderland culture, arguing that freedom, egalitarianism, and self-reliance make borderland peoples better warriors than civilized children trained for tests.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3365.72, "end": 3470.52, "time_label": "56:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You hire foreign mercenaries. Right? That's what China does. Or that's what China did in its history. You can't trust your own army, so you hire foreign mercenaries. And eventually what happens is you replace your army..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 3470.7, "end": 3550.45, "time_label": "57:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That makes no sense to you. Right? So what I'm trying to say, what I'm trying to tell you is this is a wrong way of looking at it. A better way of looking at it is culture. In the borderlands, there's a certain culture..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3550.45, "end": 3631.37, "time_label": "59:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "three, their kids were learning how to swim, how to row boats, how to cook, how to hunt, how to fight, how to ride horses. Does that make sense? And what are civilized kids doing? They're learning how to do test questio..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang states the hurricane form of oceanic currents: once unleashed, historical forces do not negotiate; Ukraine, the Middle East, and current events are examples of destructive currents running their course.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3632.11, "end": 3699.27, "time_label": "1:00:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And when they win, they create a lot of destruction. Okay? And that's the idea I want you to implant in your head. These are currents. These are natural forces that are unstoppable. Once they start, you cannot stop them..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3699.57, "end": 3784, "time_label": "1:01:39", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And I will also show you how this connects to current events. And then, once we do that, we should be able to predict current events. And just to let you know, spoiler alert, things will not end well. Okay? We are looki..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "A student asks what starts the hurricanes; Jiang answers that currents are always in motion, empires energize borderlands, and prediction requires finding where hurricanes are forming.", "speaker_attribution": "Student question followed by Jiang answer; student words are not audible in the transcript, but Jiang repeats the question.", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3699.57, "end": 3784, "time_label": "1:01:39", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And I will also show you how this connects to current events. And then, once we do that, we should be able to predict current events. And just to let you know, spoiler alert, things will not end well. Okay? We are looki..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3784.08, "end": 3850.58, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. What starts these hurricanes? Or what starts this process? All right. So, if you look at an ocean, you will discover that these currents are happening all the time. You understand? There's no start. They're always..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He predicts additional hurricanes: East Asia involving Japan and South Korea, American civil war accelerating around 2028, and an eventual U.S.-Iran conflict dragging in the world.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3784.08, "end": 3850.58, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. What starts these hurricanes? Or what starts this process? All right. So, if you look at an ocean, you will discover that these currents are happening all the time. You understand? There's no start. They're always..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 3851.3, "end": 3909.23, "time_label": "1:04:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right? Now, a lot of people are saying the conflict will be between China and the U.S. I do not think that's the case. I do not think the conflict will be between the United States and China. I think it will involve..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 3909.99, "end": 3990.1, "time_label": "1:05:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And there's a very good chance Trump will run again in 2028. Okay? But I, but I think these are two big hurricanes that are coming along the way. Not now, but they're coming along along the way. The big scary hurricane,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "After another student asks how long a hurricane continues, Jiang answers that it runs until it overwhelms empire or exhausts its energy, using Vikings, Normandy, Rus, England, and status pressure as examples.", "speaker_attribution": "Student question followed by Jiang answer; student words are mostly not captured, but Jiang repeats the answer context.", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 3909.99, "end": 3990.1, "time_label": "1:05:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And there's a very good chance Trump will run again in 2028. Okay? But I, but I think these are two big hurricanes that are coming along the way. Not now, but they're coming along along the way. The big scary hurricane,..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 3990.7, "end": 4044.91, "time_label": "1:06:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The Vikings, which we'll discuss a lot, they're in Northern Europe. And for most of human history, we had actually no idea they were there. Okay? They were in the north in Denmark, in Norway, in Sweden. And they basical..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 4044.91, "end": 4121.882, "time_label": "1:07:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Normandy. All right? And then they went over here to Ukraine along the river because they were trading with the Islamic Empire. And they founded colonies or new settlements. And this was a peaceful process. Okay? Becaus..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 4121.882, "end": 4195.189, "time_label": "1:08:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The hurricane is created because they have wealth, power, but they don't have enough status positions so that they expand to fill these status positions. Okay? This is actually what drives empire building. Does that mak..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0057" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang closes by previewing the next three classes: the Frankish Empire leads to the rise of the Vikings.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 4195.189, "end": 4209.44, "time_label": "1:09:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the Frankish Empire will lead to the rise of the Vikings. All right? All right. So those are the next three classes. All right. Great." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "speaker_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "note": "The transcript mostly captures Jiang repeating or answering classroom questions; student audio is not independently transcribed except through Jiang's phrasing.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang plus unidentified students", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3699.57, "end": 3784, "time_label": "1:01:39", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And I will also show you how this connects to current events. And then, once we do that, we should be able to predict current events. And just to let you know, spoiler alert, things will not end well. Okay? We are looki..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 3909.99, "end": 3990.1, "time_label": "1:05:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And there's a very good chance Trump will run again in 2028. Okay? But I, but I think these are two big hurricanes that are coming along the way. Not now, but they're coming along along the way. The big scary hurricane,..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 4121.882, "end": 4195.189, "time_label": "1:08:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The hurricane is created because they have wealth, power, but they don't have enough status positions so that they expand to fill these status positions. Okay? This is actually what drives empire building. Does that mak..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "claims": [ { "claim": "Jiang identifies Ukraine, the Middle East, and the United States against the world as the three major conflicts framing the 2025 semester.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "temporal_scope": "Current-events diagnosis dated 2025-02-18.", "topic_tags": [ "current-events", "ukraine", "middle-east", "united-states" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.05, "end": 83.38, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, good morning. So welcome to the first class of the second semester. This semester we are going to build on what we've learned the first semester to better understand human history and to better understand what's h..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 83.38, "end": 162.71, "time_label": "1:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "war in Ukraine, it is still happening, and it's affecting everything and everyone because obviously, it brings a lot of instability and uncertainty in the world, but it's also driving up prices and it's making things in..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 317.35, "end": 395.04, "time_label": "5:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "There are these geopolitical factors, as I've discussed, but there are also these religious factors that we looked into a bit last semester, but I will explain more this semester, okay? And then the third and final conf..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He predicts that the Middle East conflict will spread because an Israel-Iran war would threaten oil supply, the Strait of Hormuz, and East Asian economies, forcing major powers to intervene.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction and geopolitical model stated on 2025-02-18.", "topic_tags": [ "iran", "world-war-three", "strait-of-hormuz", "east-asia" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 83.38, "end": 162.71, "time_label": "1:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "war in Ukraine, it is still happening, and it's affecting everything and everyone because obviously, it brings a lot of instability and uncertainty in the world, but it's also driving up prices and it's making things in..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 164.2, "end": 244.02, "time_label": "2:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Trump has come in and promised a resolution to the conflict, but as I will show you this semester, there are historical structural forces that make this conflict possibly the beginning of World War Three. This conflict..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 244.02, "end": 316.7, "time_label": "4:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "cut off, then the Chinese economy, the South Korean economy, the Japanese Basically, all of East Asia faces economic collapse and catastrophe, okay? But second is, if you look at a map, Iran is really the center of the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Pax Americana brought prosperity by securing trade routes but also produced conflict because the United States could destroy countries without effective restraint.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical diagnosis of the post-1991 unipolar moment.", "topic_tags": [ "pax-americana", "unipolarity", "trade", "war" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 317.35, "end": 395.04, "time_label": "5:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "There are these geopolitical factors, as I've discussed, but there are also these religious factors that we looked into a bit last semester, but I will explain more this semester, okay? And then the third and final conf..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 395.76, "end": 479.02, "time_label": "6:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "China would not have grown as fast as China did without the Pax Americana. It is American ships, American warships, that allow Chinese ships to sail safely around the world, to deliver goods around the world. But this u..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang treats history as useful only if it can explain the present and help predict what will happen next.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0007" ], "temporal_scope": "Course-method claim for this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "prediction", "historical-method", "grand-history" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 481.11, "end": 564.22, "time_label": "8:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Canada, Mexico, quite possibly, very quickly, the European Union, and the United States is already at economic war with Russia and China, okay? So we will go, this semester, we will also discuss this semester why this i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The cyclical model understands historical development through repeating patterns such as seasons, lives, and Chinese dynastic rise and decline.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition of a historical model in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "cycle", "dynastic-cycle", "historical-models" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 564.9, "end": 627.84, "time_label": "9:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And in the past, there have been two main models for understanding historical development. Okay, so the first is the idea of a cycle or a circle. And this makes sense, right? Because this mirrors what we experience in l..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "In the cyclical political model, people, nobility, and king each hold a different power, and regime form changes as two factions ally against the third.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical model presented in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "cycle", "regime-cycle", "people", "nobility", "king" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 627.84, "end": 727.88, "time_label": "10:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "time, for a variety of reasons, because of corruption, because there's a bad emperor, they lose the mandate of heaven, which allows a rebellion, which then creates a new dynasty. So Chinese history is almost a continuou..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 729.35, "end": 803.29, "time_label": "12:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? so these are the three major forces or factions in a society and these three factions are always in conflict and what happens is a changing alliance where the two of the three get together to beat one okay and the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 864.02, "end": 927.84, "time_label": "14:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for the fact that he cleared away their debts this this is what we call jubilee by the way the word is jubilee and this happens a lot in human history but the problem is the king has a son who's not so good and then the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Debt is the mechanism by which oligarchy corrupts itself: nobles turn renters into debtors and then slaves, creating the crisis a king can exploit.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "temporal_scope": "Model of oligarchic decay in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "debt", "oligarchy", "slavery", "jubilee" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 729.35, "end": 803.29, "time_label": "12:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? so these are the three major forces or factions in a society and these three factions are always in conflict and what happens is a changing alliance where the two of the three get together to beat one okay and the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 803.29, "end": 864.02, "time_label": "13:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "a loan and over time this loan becomes a debt and at a certain point you can't pay off the debt so what happens you become my slave and your children become my slave as well okay so this creates a lot of conflict in soc..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang interprets Trump as a king figure in the cycle because he tells the people corrupt elites are stealing from them and asks for power to destroy those elites.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "temporal_scope": "Contemporary application stated on 2025-02-18.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "king", "elite-conflict", "united-states" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 927.84, "end": 981.25, "time_label": "15:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "government okay when the nobility is in charge in an Arlarchy when but then a king and the people work together or throw in a create a monarchy and then they and the king becomes corrupt and so the nobility and the peop..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 981.25, "end": 1023.65, "time_label": "16:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history four years his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history so that's idea of a cycle right we also have so that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The line model treats history as progress toward truth or a good end rather than an endless cycle.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition of a historical model in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "line-model", "progress", "truth", "end-of-history" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 981.25, "end": 1023.65, "time_label": "16:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history four years his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history so that's idea of a cycle right we also have so that..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1023.65, "end": 1105.56, "time_label": "17:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "on us in a useless cycle it is moving towards a truth is moving towards a good end okay so then this idea has been around for a very long time remember in the Bible but when King David first sponsored rhyme a Bible the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1105.56, "end": 1171.25, "time_label": "18:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "wars that will eventually lead to the rise of Augustus Caesar and this will create something called the Pax Romana and this is the end of history this is where all movement ends because once you achieve the Pax Romana t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang groups the Bible, Virgil, Pax Romana, and Fukuyama as variants of line-history because each imagines movement toward an end point where conflict is resolved.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "temporal_scope": "Comparative model stated in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "bible", "virgil", "pax-romana", "fukuyama" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1023.65, "end": 1105.56, "time_label": "17:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "on us in a useless cycle it is moving towards a truth is moving towards a good end okay so then this idea has been around for a very long time remember in the Bible but when King David first sponsored rhyme a Bible the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1105.56, "end": 1171.25, "time_label": "18:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "wars that will eventually lead to the rise of Augustus Caesar and this will create something called the Pax Romana and this is the end of history this is where all movement ends because once you achieve the Pax Romana t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that Christian Zionist belief in war as the trigger for Jesus returning is one of the main causes of Middle East conflict.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretive diagnosis stated on 2025-02-18.", "topic_tags": [ "christian-zionism", "second-coming", "middle-east", "end-times" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1171.71, "end": 1250.54, "time_label": "19:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We no longer have to argue about this. Everyone should try to be a liberal consumer democracy, including China. And if everyone became a consumer liberal democracy, there will be no more war. We won't want to fight beca..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1250.56, "end": 1324.7, "time_label": "20:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "is that this idea, it sounds like a simple idea, but this idea is what's driving a lot of the conflict in the Middle East. Believe it or not, but there are millions of Christians, they're called Christian Zionists by th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Hegelian dialectic is a line model because conflict between ideas is still understood as progress toward truth.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition and classification in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "hegel", "dialectic", "line-model", "marxism" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1325.36, "end": 1398.988, "time_label": "22:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Alright? Now, what's important for us to understand is that these are the two basic frameworks of history. But there are variations to these two basic models. Okay? So for example, Hegel. We'll discuss Friedrich Hegel l..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1398.988, "end": 1481.27, "time_label": "23:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But it's like this almost. Right? There's an idea, something comes into conflict and this leads to a new idea which then leads to a new idea. Okay? But he still believes that we are progressing towards the truth through..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says history has failed as a discipline when it cannot use past patterns to explain Trump, Ukraine, or the Middle East and predict what comes next.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0022" ], "temporal_scope": "Methodological critique dated 2025-02-18.", "topic_tags": [ "historical-method", "prediction", "truth" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1482.29, "end": 1568.5, "time_label": "24:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It's a much more complicated model than these two models. But I think it is much more useful in helping us predict the causes of historical development. Okay? I want to argue why these two models don't really work..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1570.39, "end": 1635.17, "time_label": "26:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And for me, this is frustrating because if the history is any good, if the history is accurate, then it should help us predict the future. Or at least better understand the present. Okay? So the idea of truth. What is t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Truth, for Jiang in this lecture, must explain why something happened and predict future developments.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0022" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "truth", "explanation", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1570.39, "end": 1635.17, "time_label": "26:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And for me, this is frustrating because if the history is any good, if the history is accurate, then it should help us predict the future. Or at least better understand the present. Okay? So the idea of truth. What is t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The oceanic currents model imagines the world as interacting ecosystems whose currents collide and produce new developments without moral judgment.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "temporal_scope": "Core model introduced in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "oceanic-currents", "ecosystems", "historical-model" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1635.7, "end": 1711.878, "time_label": "27:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it helps us also predict what will happen. Okay? And this model is what I call the oceanic currents of history. Imagine the world as a huge ocean. And within each ocean, there's an ecosystem, which has currents. And..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Culture is meta-reality: the understanding of the world from which all other understandings derive.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "culture", "meta-reality", "world-model" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1711.878, "end": 1794.43, "time_label": "28:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "What I want to show you is the world is divided into cultural ecosystems. Cultural ecosystems. This is a really important idea you need to know for the rest of the semester. What I will argue is that culture is the meta..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Culture persists more deeply than material modernization; a person from ancient China would adapt to modern China because the core cultural rules remain intelligible.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "temporal_scope": "Thought experiment in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "culture", "china", "modernity", "adaptation" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1795.64, "end": 1858.69, "time_label": "29:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right? Now, in 2,000 years, China has changed a lot. Right? We now have the Internet. We have computers. We have cell phones. We have skyscrapers. We have cars. We have roads. Okay? So China has changed a lot in the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1858.69, "end": 1928.27, "time_label": "30:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "time to learn how to use a cell phone and how to use a computer and how to drive a car, but he can do so. Does that make sense? Now, let's do another experiment. Let's take a random guy from China today and put him in G..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "A modern Chinese person in Germany would remain a cultural stranger despite knowing modern technology because cultural fit matters more than surface skills.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "temporal_scope": "Thought experiment in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "culture", "germany", "stranger", "adaptation" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1858.69, "end": 1928.27, "time_label": "30:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "time to learn how to use a cell phone and how to use a computer and how to drive a car, but he can do so. Does that make sense? Now, let's do another experiment. Let's take a random guy from China today and put him in G..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1929.3, "end": 2004.34, "time_label": "32:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "This thought experiment, I hope, shows you the persistence of culture. It's the most important part of who you are. It drives everything else. It drives how you see the world. It drives how you interact with others. Oka..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The world can be divided into cultural ecosystems produced by geography, history, and demographics.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "temporal_scope": "Core model in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "cultural-ecosystems", "geography", "history", "demographics" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1929.3, "end": 2004.34, "time_label": "32:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "This thought experiment, I hope, shows you the persistence of culture. It's the most important part of who you are. It drives everything else. It drives how you see the world. It drives how you interact with others. Oka..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2007.34, "end": 2113.999, "time_label": "33:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And then you have the steppes. Okay? So remember the steppes are this grassland, this ocean of grassland that basically extends from Hungary to Mongolia. Okay? And then you have China, India. Okay? So there are these di..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Borderlands are intersections of empires, such as Mongolia for China and Arabia for Byzantine and Sassanian empires.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "borderlands", "mongolia", "arabia", "empires" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2113.999, "end": 2196.19, "time_label": "35:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How were the Mongolians and the Manchus able to conquer the Chinese Empire? All right? And what I will show you this semester is when this happens, when an empire is conquered, the pattern is the same. There's a consist..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Empires and borderlands become symbiotic through trade, military cooperation, and raiding before the borderlands are energized enough to expand.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical pattern model in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "borderlands", "trade", "mercenaries", "raiding" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2113.999, "end": 2196.19, "time_label": "35:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How were the Mongolians and the Manchus able to conquer the Chinese Empire? All right? And what I will show you this semester is when this happens, when an empire is conquered, the pattern is the same. There's a consist..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2196.19, "end": 2267.5, "time_label": "36:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? In three ways. The first and the first most simple way that they interact is through trade. Okay? They trade with each other. Second way they interact is through military cooperation. So what often happens is the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2267.5, "end": 2343.94, "time_label": "37:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The north mid. So these are all isolated parts. But as the empire expands, they start to interact with these isolated ecosystems. And when they interact, what happens is these borderlands become energized. Okay? It's li..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Once energized by empire, borderlands become wealthier, more populated, and more militarily sophisticated, creating internal pressure to expand and sometimes conquer the empire.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical pattern model in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "empire-collapse", "borderlands", "expansion", "conquest" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2267.5, "end": 2343.94, "time_label": "37:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The north mid. So these are all isolated parts. But as the empire expands, they start to interact with these isolated ecosystems. And when they interact, what happens is these borderlands become energized. Okay? It's li..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2345.28, "end": 2408.03, "time_label": "39:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They're like the stuff of legend and myth. When the empire expands, it energizes these borderlands. The energy makes these borderlands more wealthy, more populated, and more militarily sophisticated. That creates confli..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "All societies eventually collapse because of three boundary conditions: financialism, rat utopia, and elite overproduction.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "temporal_scope": "Core collapse model in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "collapse", "financialism", "rat-utopia", "elite-overproduction" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2408.21, "end": 2499.003, "time_label": "40:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How is it possible for the borderlands, which, again, is only a fraction of the wealth, the population and the resources of the empire, how were they able to conquer the empire? And this is a really important lesson you..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Financialism begins when lending, investing, and rent seeking become more profitable than entrepreneurship or producing real goods.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0035" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition and causal model in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "financialism", "rent-seeking", "capital", "piketty" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2408.21, "end": 2499.003, "time_label": "40:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How is it possible for the borderlands, which, again, is only a fraction of the wealth, the population and the resources of the empire, how were they able to conquer the empire? And this is a really important lesson you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2499.003, "end": 2580.44, "time_label": "41:39", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I'm creating wealth for the society. Right? You can also do that by building a factory. But over time, what happens is you eventually realize that it's more profitable for you to lend money than to build things. Does th..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2580.48, "end": 2672.72, "time_label": "43:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? So, the example is, okay, there are five restaurants in Beijing. They're obviously trying to compete against each other for customers. So, they lower prices and try to create better food. 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But event..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2672.72, "end": 2742.68, "time_label": "44:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? On average, if you put $100 in the stock market, you make $5. All right? But the return on the real economy is only 2%. 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So the first boundary condition, war societie..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2887.38, "end": 2955.93, "time_label": "48:07", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the male rat starts to chase the female rat. The female rat runs back into her burrow, her home, and hides. The male rat has to stand outside and wait for the female rat to come out. When she comes out, she will sta..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2956.13, "end": 3019.36, "time_label": "49:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Everyday food would come down from the heavens. And all the rats could do whatever they want. They would have complete freedom. This is what we call rat utopia. It turned out all society collapsed. It was a complete dis..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Status positions require turnover; when people at the top do not fall off the mountaintop, young people become angry, unmotivated, and socially withdrawn.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "temporal_scope": "Status model in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "status", "rat-utopia", "youth", "lying-flat" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 3020.8, "end": 3068, "time_label": "50:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How this game works is people on the mountaintop have to fall off and die in order for other people to climb up. Does that make sense? But what happens when the people on the mountaintop don't die? Well, you're just stu..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3068.22, "end": 3136.32, "time_label": "51:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And they're not dying. So what are young people doing? Tengping, Bailan, right? Quiet quitting. Lying flat. Because you don't see any opportunities. What you want is not money. What you want is status. 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And this is what drives a lot of hi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3291.12, "end": 3365.66, "time_label": "54:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "human history, empires that have persisted for the longest have this huge problem where the majority of the population suffers from too much debt and suffers from too much landlessness. No opportunities. Okay? Then what..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Empires import borderland mercenaries to solve military problems, but those mercenaries can replace the army and eventually take over the empire.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical pattern model in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "mercenaries", "borderlands", "rome", "china" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3291.12, "end": 3365.66, "time_label": "54:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "human history, empires that have persisted for the longest have this huge problem where the majority of the population suffers from too much debt and suffers from too much landlessness. No opportunities. Okay? Then what..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3365.72, "end": 3470.52, "time_label": "56:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You hire foreign mercenaries. Right? That's what China does. Or that's what China did in its history. You can't trust your own army, so you hire foreign mercenaries. 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You can't trust your own army, so you hire foreign mercenaries. And eventually what happens is you replace your army..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 3470.7, "end": 3550.45, "time_label": "57:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That makes no sense to you. Right? So what I'm trying to say, what I'm trying to tell you is this is a wrong way of looking at it. A better way of looking at it is culture. In the borderlands, there's a certain culture..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3550.45, "end": 3631.37, "time_label": "59:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "three, their kids were learning how to swim, how to row boats, how to cook, how to hunt, how to fight, how to ride horses. Does that make sense? And what are civilized kids doing? They're learning how to do test questio..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Oceanic currents are natural historical forces that cannot be stopped by negotiation once they begin; they end only when they run out of energy.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "temporal_scope": "Core model statement in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "oceanic-currents", "hurricanes", "historical-forces" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3632.11, "end": 3699.27, "time_label": "1:00:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And when they win, they create a lot of destruction. Okay? And that's the idea I want you to implant in your head. These are currents. These are natural forces that are unstoppable. Once they start, you cannot stop them..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts the Ukraine war will engulf Europe and the Middle East war will engulf the world.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction dated 2025-02-18.", "topic_tags": [ "ukraine", "middle-east", "prediction", "hurricane" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3632.11, "end": 3699.27, "time_label": "1:00:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And when they win, they create a lot of destruction. Okay? And that's the idea I want you to implant in your head. These are currents. These are natural forces that are unstoppable. Once they start, you cannot stop them..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He predicts the current world will be completely destroyed or transformed because oceanic currents destroy everything in their path once unleashed.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction dated 2025-02-18.", "topic_tags": [ "world-order", "destruction", "prediction", "oceanic-currents" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3699.57, "end": 3784, "time_label": "1:01:39", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And I will also show you how this connects to current events. And then, once we do that, we should be able to predict current events. And just to let you know, spoiler alert, things will not end well. Okay? We are looki..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Hurricanes do not have a single start; currents are always in motion, and empire formation already begins energizing future borderland hurricanes.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "temporal_scope": "Model answer to classroom question.", "topic_tags": [ "hurricanes", "empire", "borderlands", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3784.08, "end": 3850.58, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. What starts these hurricanes? Or what starts this process? All right. So, if you look at an ocean, you will discover that these currents are happening all the time. You understand? There's no start. They're always..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts eventual East Asian conflict but says it will not be primarily a U.S.-China Taiwan Strait war; it will involve Japan and South Korea.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction dated 2025-02-18.", "topic_tags": [ "east-asia", "japan", "south-korea", "taiwan", "china" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3784.08, "end": 3850.58, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. What starts these hurricanes? Or what starts this process? All right. So, if you look at an ocean, you will discover that these currents are happening all the time. You understand? There's no start. They're always..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 3851.3, "end": 3909.23, "time_label": "1:04:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right? Now, a lot of people are saying the conflict will be between China and the U.S. I do not think that's the case. I do not think the conflict will be between the United States and China. I think it will involve..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts America will eventually fight a civil war and that conflict will speed up around the heavily contested 2028 election.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction dated 2025-02-18 for 2028.", "topic_tags": [ "america", "civil-war", "2028-election", "trump" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 3851.3, "end": 3909.23, "time_label": "1:04:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right? Now, a lot of people are saying the conflict will be between China and the U.S. I do not think that's the case. I do not think the conflict will be between the United States and China. I think it will involve..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The big scary hurricane is Iran: Jiang predicts the United States and Iran will eventually come into conflict and drag in the entire world.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction dated 2025-02-18.", "topic_tags": [ "iran", "united-states", "world-war", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 3909.99, "end": 3990.1, "time_label": "1:05:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And there's a very good chance Trump will run again in 2028. Okay? But I, but I think these are two big hurricanes that are coming along the way. Not now, but they're coming along along the way. The big scary hurricane,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Viking expansion illustrates the hurricane model: excess wealth, power, and status pressure pushed borderland people to colonize, trade, raid, and found new political orders.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical example in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "vikings", "normandy", "rus", "status", "empire-building" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 3909.99, "end": 3990.1, "time_label": "1:05:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And there's a very good chance Trump will run again in 2028. Okay? But I, but I think these are two big hurricanes that are coming along the way. Not now, but they're coming along along the way. The big scary hurricane,..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 3990.7, "end": 4044.91, "time_label": "1:06:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The Vikings, which we'll discuss a lot, they're in Northern Europe. And for most of human history, we had actually no idea they were there. Okay? They were in the north in Denmark, in Norway, in Sweden. And they basical..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 4044.91, "end": 4121.882, "time_label": "1:07:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Normandy. All right? And then they went over here to Ukraine along the river because they were trading with the Islamic Empire. And they founded colonies or new settlements. And this was a peaceful process. Okay? Becaus..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 4121.882, "end": 4195.189, "time_label": "1:08:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The hurricane is created because they have wealth, power, but they don't have enough status positions so that they expand to fill these status positions. Okay? This is actually what drives empire building. Does that mak..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang previews the next arc as Roman decline, the Frankish or Holy Roman Empire, and then the rise of the Vikings.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0057" ], "temporal_scope": "Course-sequence note at the end of the 2025-02-18 lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "frankish-empire", "vikings", "course-sequence" ], "claim_type": "other", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 4195.189, "end": 4209.44, "time_label": "1:09:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the Frankish Empire will lead to the rise of the Vikings. All right? All right. So those are the next three classes. All right. Great." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "signature_moments": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "moment": "Iran becomes the linchpin of the global economy.", "source_phrase": "Iran right now, is the linchpin of the global economy", "why_it_matters": "It turns a regional conflict into the hinge of world-system escalation.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 164.2, "end": 244.02, "time_label": "2:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Trump has come in and promised a resolution to the conflict, but as I will show you this semester, there are historical structural forces that make this conflict possibly the beginning of World War Three. This conflict..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "moment": "The American peace is both the condition of Chinese growth and the source of global resentment.", "source_phrase": "China would not have grown as fast as China did without the Pax Americana", "why_it_matters": "It preserves the double edge in Jiang's view of hegemony.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 395.76, "end": 479.02, "time_label": "6:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "China would not have grown as fast as China did without the Pax Americana. It is American ships, American warships, that allow Chinese ships to sail safely around the world, to deliver goods around the world. But this u..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0007" ], "moment": "History should predict, not merely remember.", "source_phrase": "you will also be able to predict what will happen", "why_it_matters": "It states the epistemic demand behind the whole episode.", "tone": "method", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 481.11, "end": 564.22, "time_label": "8:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Canada, Mexico, quite possibly, very quickly, the European Union, and the United States is already at economic war with Russia and China, okay? So we will go, this semester, we will also discuss this semester why this i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "moment": "The first king is loved because he clears the debts.", "source_phrase": "if you make me king I will clear your debts", "why_it_matters": "It gives the political cycle its material engine, not just a constitutional vocabulary.", "tone": "causal-chain", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 803.29, "end": 864.02, "time_label": "13:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "a loan and over time this loan becomes a debt and at a certain point you can't pay off the debt so what happens you become my slave and your children become my slave as well okay so this creates a lot of conflict in soc..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 864.02, "end": 927.84, "time_label": "14:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for the fact that he cleared away their debts this this is what we call jubilee by the way the word is jubilee and this happens a lot in human history but the problem is the king has a son who's not so good and then the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ], "moment": "Trump is not merely president in this cycle; Trump is a king.", "source_phrase": "Trump is a king", "why_it_matters": "It is the provocative present-tense application of the ancient cycle.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 927.84, "end": 981.25, "time_label": "15:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "government okay when the nobility is in charge in an Arlarchy when but then a king and the people work together or throw in a create a monarchy and then they and the king becomes corrupt and so the nobility and the peop..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "moment": "Pax Romana is presented as an ancient end of history.", "source_phrase": "this is the end of history", "why_it_matters": "It links Roman imperial ideology to modern end-of-history thinking.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1105.56, "end": 1171.25, "time_label": "18:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "wars that will eventually lead to the rise of Augustus Caesar and this will create something called the Pax Romana and this is the end of history this is where all movement ends because once you achieve the Pax Romana t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "moment": "Crazy ideas make crazy events.", "source_phrase": "Crazy ideas make crazy events", "why_it_matters": "It condenses Jiang's causal claim that metaphysical belief can generate geopolitical disaster.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1250.56, "end": 1324.7, "time_label": "20:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "is that this idea, it sounds like a simple idea, but this idea is what's driving a lot of the conflict in the Middle East. Believe it or not, but there are millions of Christians, they're called Christian Zionists by th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0022" ], "moment": "Truth has to predict.", "source_phrase": "If it's truthful, then it predicts", "why_it_matters": "It is the methodological hinge from history as memory to history as forecast.", "tone": "method", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1570.39, "end": 1635.17, "time_label": "26:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And for me, this is frustrating because if the history is any good, if the history is accurate, then it should help us predict the future. Or at least better understand the present. Okay? So the idea of truth. What is t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "moment": "The world becomes an ocean full of colliding currents.", "source_phrase": "Imagine the world as a huge ocean", "why_it_matters": "It names the episode's governing metaphor.", "tone": "metaphor", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1635.7, "end": 1711.878, "time_label": "27:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it helps us also predict what will happen. Okay? And this model is what I call the oceanic currents of history. Imagine the world as a huge ocean. And within each ocean, there's an ecosystem, which has currents. And..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "moment": "Culture is the meta-reality underneath every other identity.", "source_phrase": "culture is the meta -reality", "why_it_matters": "It makes culture the deep operating layer of Jiang's historical model.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1711.878, "end": 1794.43, "time_label": "28:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "What I want to show you is the world is divided into cultural ecosystems. Cultural ecosystems. This is a really important idea you need to know for the rest of the semester. What I will argue is that culture is the meta..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "moment": "A modern person can know the internet and still be a stranger forever.", "source_phrase": "because of the culture, he's always a stranger", "why_it_matters": "It makes culture deeper than technology or language ability.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1858.69, "end": 1928.27, "time_label": "30:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "time to learn how to use a cell phone and how to use a computer and how to drive a car, but he can do so. Does that make sense? Now, let's do another experiment. Let's take a random guy from China today and put him in G..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "moment": "Empire adds fuel to the borderlands.", "source_phrase": "the empire is adding fuel to the borderlands", "why_it_matters": "It is the mechanical image behind the oceanic current model.", "tone": "metaphor", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2267.5, "end": 2343.94, "time_label": "37:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The north mid. So these are all isolated parts. But as the empire expands, they start to interact with these isolated ecosystems. And when they interact, what happens is these borderlands become energized. Okay? It's li..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "moment": "Legendary margins become the new empire.", "source_phrase": "They're like the stuff of legend and myth", "why_it_matters": "It captures Jiang's reversal where the obscure edge becomes the historical center.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2345.28, "end": 2408.03, "time_label": "39:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They're like the stuff of legend and myth. When the empire expands, it energizes these borderlands. The energy makes these borderlands more wealthy, more populated, and more militarily sophisticated. That creates confli..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0035" ], "moment": "The ultimate goal of business becomes monopoly rent.", "source_phrase": "create a monopoly which forces people to buy whatever prices you charge them", "why_it_matters": "It shows how productive economy turns into extraction.", "tone": "causal-chain", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2580.48, "end": 2672.72, "time_label": "43:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? So, the example is, okay, there are five restaurants in Beijing. They're obviously trying to compete against each other for customers. So, they lower prices and try to create better food. But event..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "moment": "War is a game reset.", "source_phrase": "war means a game reset", "why_it_matters": "It is the sharpest formulation of Jiang's financialism-to-war mechanism.", "tone": "metaphor", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2744.33, "end": 2815.9, "time_label": "45:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And when you're in this situation, what are you forced to do now? If you're a society and you want to continue, what are you forced to do? See me? No. What do you do? Historically, what have societies done in order to g..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "moment": "Perfect freedom in rat utopia becomes rape and murder.", "source_phrase": "There's no more playing around. There's no more ritual.", "why_it_matters": "It makes abundance look socially dangerous rather than liberating.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2956.13, "end": 3019.36, "time_label": "49:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Everyday food would come down from the heavens. And all the rats could do whatever they want. They would have complete freedom. This is what we call rat utopia. It turned out all society collapsed. It was a complete dis..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0041" ], "moment": "Everyone is stuck in line while the people on the mountaintop refuse to die.", "source_phrase": "people on the mountaintop have to fall off and die", "why_it_matters": "It makes status blockage visible as a social physics problem.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 3020.8, "end": 3068, "time_label": "50:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How this game works is people on the mountaintop have to fall off and die in order for other people to climb up. Does that make sense? But what happens when the people on the mountaintop don't die? Well, you're just stu..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0043" ], "moment": "Elite overproduction is rat utopia for the haves.", "source_phrase": "same as radiotopia, but radiotopia is a conflict between the haves and the have -nots", "why_it_matters": "It ties youth despair and elite civil war into one status model.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3138.14, "end": 3208.09, "time_label": "52:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does that make sense? Any questions before I continue? Are you guys clear about this? And the third boundary condition is the idea of elite overproduction. What is elite overproduction? Well, it's the same as radi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "moment": "The foreign mercenaries you hire become the new rulers.", "source_phrase": "The foreign mercenaries take over your empire", "why_it_matters": "It is the borderland takeover pattern in one sentence.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3365.72, "end": 3470.52, "time_label": "56:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You hire foreign mercenaries. Right? That's what China does. Or that's what China did in its history. You can't trust your own army, so you hire foreign mercenaries. And eventually what happens is you replace your army..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "moment": "Civilized kids learn test questions while borderland kids learn war.", "source_phrase": "What are civilized kids doing? They're learning how to do test questions.", "why_it_matters": "It preserves Jiang's cultural contrast between civilization and martial readiness.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3550.45, "end": 3631.37, "time_label": "59:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "three, their kids were learning how to swim, how to row boats, how to cook, how to hunt, how to fight, how to ride horses. Does that make sense? And what are civilized kids doing? They're learning how to do test questio..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "moment": "The hurricane does not negotiate.", "source_phrase": "Hurricanes don't do that", "why_it_matters": "It is the lecture's starkest image of impersonal historical force.", "tone": "metaphor", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3632.11, "end": 3699.27, "time_label": "1:00:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And when they win, they create a lot of destruction. Okay? And that's the idea I want you to implant in your head. These are currents. These are natural forces that are unstoppable. Once they start, you cannot stop them..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "moment": "Spoiler alert: things will not end well.", "source_phrase": "spoiler alert, things will not end well", "why_it_matters": "It preserves the apocalyptic force of Jiang's forecast.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3699.57, "end": 3784, "time_label": "1:01:39", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And I will also show you how this connects to current events. And then, once we do that, we should be able to predict current events. And just to let you know, spoiler alert, things will not end well. Okay? We are looki..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "moment": "There is no start; hurricanes are always forming.", "source_phrase": "There's no start. They're always in motion.", "why_it_matters": "It prevents the model from becoming a simple trigger theory.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3784.08, "end": 3850.58, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. What starts these hurricanes? Or what starts this process? All right. So, if you look at an ocean, you will discover that these currents are happening all the time. You understand? There's no start. They're always..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "moment": "Empire building is status overflow, not simple resource hunger.", "source_phrase": "they have wealth, power, but they don't have enough status positions", "why_it_matters": "It gives Jiang's final mechanism for expansion and conquest.", "tone": "causal-chain", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 4121.882, "end": 4195.189, "time_label": "1:08:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The hurricane is created because they have wealth, power, but they don't have enough status positions so that they expand to fill these status positions. Okay? This is actually what drives empire building. Does that mak..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "predictions": [ { "claim": "He predicts that the Middle East conflict will spread because an Israel-Iran war would threaten oil supply, the Strait of Hormuz, and East Asian economies, forcing major powers to intervene.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction and geopolitical model stated on 2025-02-18.", "topic_tags": [ "iran", "world-war-three", "strait-of-hormuz", "east-asia" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 83.38, "end": 162.71, "time_label": "1:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "war in Ukraine, it is still happening, and it's affecting everything and everyone because obviously, it brings a lot of instability and uncertainty in the world, but it's also driving up prices and it's making things in..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 164.2, "end": 244.02, "time_label": "2:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Trump has come in and promised a resolution to the conflict, but as I will show you this semester, there are historical structural forces that make this conflict possibly the beginning of World War Three. This conflict..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 244.02, "end": 316.7, "time_label": "4:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "cut off, then the Chinese economy, the South Korean economy, the Japanese Basically, all of East Asia faces economic collapse and catastrophe, okay? But second is, if you look at a map, Iran is really the center of the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts the Ukraine war will engulf Europe and the Middle East war will engulf the world.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction dated 2025-02-18.", "topic_tags": [ "ukraine", "middle-east", "prediction", "hurricane" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3632.11, "end": 3699.27, "time_label": "1:00:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And when they win, they create a lot of destruction. Okay? And that's the idea I want you to implant in your head. These are currents. These are natural forces that are unstoppable. Once they start, you cannot stop them..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He predicts the current world will be completely destroyed or transformed because oceanic currents destroy everything in their path once unleashed.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction dated 2025-02-18.", "topic_tags": [ "world-order", "destruction", "prediction", "oceanic-currents" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3699.57, "end": 3784, "time_label": "1:01:39", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And I will also show you how this connects to current events. And then, once we do that, we should be able to predict current events. And just to let you know, spoiler alert, things will not end well. Okay? We are looki..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts eventual East Asian conflict but says it will not be primarily a U.S.-China Taiwan Strait war; it will involve Japan and South Korea.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction dated 2025-02-18.", "topic_tags": [ "east-asia", "japan", "south-korea", "taiwan", "china" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3784.08, "end": 3850.58, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. What starts these hurricanes? Or what starts this process? All right. So, if you look at an ocean, you will discover that these currents are happening all the time. You understand? There's no start. They're always..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 3851.3, "end": 3909.23, "time_label": "1:04:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right? Now, a lot of people are saying the conflict will be between China and the U.S. I do not think that's the case. I do not think the conflict will be between the United States and China. I think it will involve..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts America will eventually fight a civil war and that conflict will speed up around the heavily contested 2028 election.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction dated 2025-02-18 for 2028.", "topic_tags": [ "america", "civil-war", "2028-election", "trump" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 3851.3, "end": 3909.23, "time_label": "1:04:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right? Now, a lot of people are saying the conflict will be between China and the U.S. I do not think that's the case. I do not think the conflict will be between the United States and China. I think it will involve..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The big scary hurricane is Iran: Jiang predicts the United States and Iran will eventually come into conflict and drag in the entire world.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction dated 2025-02-18.", "topic_tags": [ "iran", "united-states", "world-war", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 3909.99, "end": 3990.1, "time_label": "1:05:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And there's a very good chance Trump will run again in 2028. Okay? But I, but I think these are two big hurricanes that are coming along the way. Not now, but they're coming along along the way. The big scary hurricane,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "models": [ { "claim": "Jiang treats history as useful only if it can explain the present and help predict what will happen next.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0007" ], "temporal_scope": "Course-method claim for this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "prediction", "historical-method", "grand-history" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 481.11, "end": 564.22, "time_label": "8:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Canada, Mexico, quite possibly, very quickly, the European Union, and the United States is already at economic war with Russia and China, okay? So we will go, this semester, we will also discuss this semester why this i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "In the cyclical political model, people, nobility, and king each hold a different power, and regime form changes as two factions ally against the third.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical model presented in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "cycle", "regime-cycle", "people", "nobility", "king" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 627.84, "end": 727.88, "time_label": "10:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "time, for a variety of reasons, because of corruption, because there's a bad emperor, they lose the mandate of heaven, which allows a rebellion, which then creates a new dynasty. So Chinese history is almost a continuou..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 729.35, "end": 803.29, "time_label": "12:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? so these are the three major forces or factions in a society and these three factions are always in conflict and what happens is a changing alliance where the two of the three get together to beat one okay and the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 864.02, "end": 927.84, "time_label": "14:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for the fact that he cleared away their debts this this is what we call jubilee by the way the word is jubilee and this happens a lot in human history but the problem is the king has a son who's not so good and then the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Debt is the mechanism by which oligarchy corrupts itself: nobles turn renters into debtors and then slaves, creating the crisis a king can exploit.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "temporal_scope": "Model of oligarchic decay in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "debt", "oligarchy", "slavery", "jubilee" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 729.35, "end": 803.29, "time_label": "12:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? so these are the three major forces or factions in a society and these three factions are always in conflict and what happens is a changing alliance where the two of the three get together to beat one okay and the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 803.29, "end": 864.02, "time_label": "13:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "a loan and over time this loan becomes a debt and at a certain point you can't pay off the debt so what happens you become my slave and your children become my slave as well okay so this creates a lot of conflict in soc..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang groups the Bible, Virgil, Pax Romana, and Fukuyama as variants of line-history because each imagines movement toward an end point where conflict is resolved.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "temporal_scope": "Comparative model stated in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "bible", "virgil", "pax-romana", "fukuyama" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1023.65, "end": 1105.56, "time_label": "17:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "on us in a useless cycle it is moving towards a truth is moving towards a good end okay so then this idea has been around for a very long time remember in the Bible but when King David first sponsored rhyme a Bible the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1105.56, "end": 1171.25, "time_label": "18:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "wars that will eventually lead to the rise of Augustus Caesar and this will create something called the Pax Romana and this is the end of history this is where all movement ends because once you achieve the Pax Romana t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The oceanic currents model imagines the world as interacting ecosystems whose currents collide and produce new developments without moral judgment.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "temporal_scope": "Core model introduced in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "oceanic-currents", "ecosystems", "historical-model" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1635.7, "end": 1711.878, "time_label": "27:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it helps us also predict what will happen. Okay? And this model is what I call the oceanic currents of history. Imagine the world as a huge ocean. And within each ocean, there's an ecosystem, which has currents. And..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Culture persists more deeply than material modernization; a person from ancient China would adapt to modern China because the core cultural rules remain intelligible.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "temporal_scope": "Thought experiment in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "culture", "china", "modernity", "adaptation" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1795.64, "end": 1858.69, "time_label": "29:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right? Now, in 2,000 years, China has changed a lot. Right? We now have the Internet. We have computers. We have cell phones. We have skyscrapers. We have cars. We have roads. Okay? So China has changed a lot in the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1858.69, "end": 1928.27, "time_label": "30:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "time to learn how to use a cell phone and how to use a computer and how to drive a car, but he can do so. Does that make sense? Now, let's do another experiment. Let's take a random guy from China today and put him in G..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "A modern Chinese person in Germany would remain a cultural stranger despite knowing modern technology because cultural fit matters more than surface skills.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "temporal_scope": "Thought experiment in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "culture", "germany", "stranger", "adaptation" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1858.69, "end": 1928.27, "time_label": "30:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "time to learn how to use a cell phone and how to use a computer and how to drive a car, but he can do so. Does that make sense? Now, let's do another experiment. Let's take a random guy from China today and put him in G..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1929.3, "end": 2004.34, "time_label": "32:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "This thought experiment, I hope, shows you the persistence of culture. It's the most important part of who you are. It drives everything else. It drives how you see the world. It drives how you interact with others. Oka..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The world can be divided into cultural ecosystems produced by geography, history, and demographics.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "temporal_scope": "Core model in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "cultural-ecosystems", "geography", "history", "demographics" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1929.3, "end": 2004.34, "time_label": "32:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "This thought experiment, I hope, shows you the persistence of culture. It's the most important part of who you are. It drives everything else. It drives how you see the world. It drives how you interact with others. Oka..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2007.34, "end": 2113.999, "time_label": "33:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And then you have the steppes. Okay? So remember the steppes are this grassland, this ocean of grassland that basically extends from Hungary to Mongolia. Okay? And then you have China, India. Okay? So there are these di..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Empires and borderlands become symbiotic through trade, military cooperation, and raiding before the borderlands are energized enough to expand.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical pattern model in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "borderlands", "trade", "mercenaries", "raiding" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2113.999, "end": 2196.19, "time_label": "35:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How were the Mongolians and the Manchus able to conquer the Chinese Empire? All right? And what I will show you this semester is when this happens, when an empire is conquered, the pattern is the same. There's a consist..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2196.19, "end": 2267.5, "time_label": "36:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? In three ways. The first and the first most simple way that they interact is through trade. Okay? They trade with each other. Second way they interact is through military cooperation. So what often happens is the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2267.5, "end": 2343.94, "time_label": "37:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The north mid. So these are all isolated parts. But as the empire expands, they start to interact with these isolated ecosystems. And when they interact, what happens is these borderlands become energized. Okay? It's li..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Once energized by empire, borderlands become wealthier, more populated, and more militarily sophisticated, creating internal pressure to expand and sometimes conquer the empire.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical pattern model in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "empire-collapse", "borderlands", "expansion", "conquest" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2267.5, "end": 2343.94, "time_label": "37:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The north mid. So these are all isolated parts. But as the empire expands, they start to interact with these isolated ecosystems. And when they interact, what happens is these borderlands become energized. Okay? It's li..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2345.28, "end": 2408.03, "time_label": "39:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They're like the stuff of legend and myth. When the empire expands, it energizes these borderlands. The energy makes these borderlands more wealthy, more populated, and more militarily sophisticated. That creates confli..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "All societies eventually collapse because of three boundary conditions: financialism, rat utopia, and elite overproduction.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "temporal_scope": "Core collapse model in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "collapse", "financialism", "rat-utopia", "elite-overproduction" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2408.21, "end": 2499.003, "time_label": "40:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How is it possible for the borderlands, which, again, is only a fraction of the wealth, the population and the resources of the empire, how were they able to conquer the empire? And this is a really important lesson you..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "War functions as a reset for financialized societies because destruction forces rebuilding and creates room for production again.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical-causal model in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "war", "reset", "financialism", "rebuilding" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2744.33, "end": 2815.9, "time_label": "45:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And when you're in this situation, what are you forced to do now? If you're a society and you want to continue, what are you forced to do? See me? No. What do you do? Historically, what have societies done in order to g..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2816.38, "end": 2887.14, "time_label": "46:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right now in the West, it's the same thing as well. And at that point, you have no choice but to start a war to reset your society. Or your society will continue to decline. So the first boundary condition, war societie..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Rat utopia shows that abundance without status pathways can collapse social ritual into violence and disorder.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "temporal_scope": "Boundary-condition model in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "rat-utopia", "status", "ritual", "abundance" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2816.38, "end": 2887.14, "time_label": "46:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right now in the West, it's the same thing as well. And at that point, you have no choice but to start a war to reset your society. Or your society will continue to decline. So the first boundary condition, war societie..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2887.38, "end": 2955.93, "time_label": "48:07", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the male rat starts to chase the female rat. The female rat runs back into her burrow, her home, and hides. The male rat has to stand outside and wait for the female rat to come out. When she comes out, she will sta..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2956.13, "end": 3019.36, "time_label": "49:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Everyday food would come down from the heavens. And all the rats could do whatever they want. They would have complete freedom. This is what we call rat utopia. It turned out all society collapsed. It was a complete dis..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Status positions require turnover; when people at the top do not fall off the mountaintop, young people become angry, unmotivated, and socially withdrawn.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "temporal_scope": "Status model in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "status", "rat-utopia", "youth", "lying-flat" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 3020.8, "end": 3068, "time_label": "50:20", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How this game works is people on the mountaintop have to fall off and die in order for other people to climb up. Does that make sense? But what happens when the people on the mountaintop don't die? Well, you're just stu..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3068.22, "end": 3136.32, "time_label": "51:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And they're not dying. So what are young people doing? Tengping, Bailan, right? Quiet quitting. Lying flat. Because you don't see any opportunities. What you want is not money. What you want is status. And that requires..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says many revolutions are driven less by poor people overthrowing the rich than by lower nobility fighting upper nobility for opportunities.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical model in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "revolution", "elite-conflict", "nobility" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3208.29, "end": 3291.12, "time_label": "53:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "This creates civil war. In fact, if you are to look at America today, you can say there's a civil war going on between two different factions of the elite. Okay? Does that make sense? And this is what drives a lot of hi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Empires import borderland mercenaries to solve military problems, but those mercenaries can replace the army and eventually take over the empire.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical pattern model in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "mercenaries", "borderlands", "rome", "china" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3291.12, "end": 3365.66, "time_label": "54:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "human history, empires that have persisted for the longest have this huge problem where the majority of the population suffers from too much debt and suffers from too much landlessness. No opportunities. Okay? Then what..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3365.72, "end": 3470.52, "time_label": "56:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You hire foreign mercenaries. Right? That's what China does. Or that's what China did in its history. You can't trust your own army, so you hire foreign mercenaries. And eventually what happens is you replace your army..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Borderland cultures emphasize freedom, egalitarianism, and self-reliance, which Jiang says makes them formidable warriors despite lacking cities, writing, or formal technology.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "temporal_scope": "Cultural explanation in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "borderland-culture", "freedom", "egalitarianism", "warriors" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3365.72, "end": 3470.52, "time_label": "56:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You hire foreign mercenaries. Right? That's what China does. Or that's what China did in its history. You can't trust your own army, so you hire foreign mercenaries. And eventually what happens is you replace your army..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 3470.7, "end": 3550.45, "time_label": "57:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That makes no sense to you. Right? So what I'm trying to say, what I'm trying to tell you is this is a wrong way of looking at it. A better way of looking at it is culture. In the borderlands, there's a certain culture..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3550.45, "end": 3631.37, "time_label": "59:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "three, their kids were learning how to swim, how to row boats, how to cook, how to hunt, how to fight, how to ride horses. Does that make sense? And what are civilized kids doing? They're learning how to do test questio..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Oceanic currents are natural historical forces that cannot be stopped by negotiation once they begin; they end only when they run out of energy.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "temporal_scope": "Core model statement in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "oceanic-currents", "hurricanes", "historical-forces" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3632.11, "end": 3699.27, "time_label": "1:00:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And when they win, they create a lot of destruction. Okay? And that's the idea I want you to implant in your head. These are currents. These are natural forces that are unstoppable. Once they start, you cannot stop them..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Hurricanes do not have a single start; currents are always in motion, and empire formation already begins energizing future borderland hurricanes.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "temporal_scope": "Model answer to classroom question.", "topic_tags": [ "hurricanes", "empire", "borderlands", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3784.08, "end": 3850.58, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. What starts these hurricanes? Or what starts this process? All right. So, if you look at an ocean, you will discover that these currents are happening all the time. You understand? There's no start. They're always..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Viking expansion illustrates the hurricane model: excess wealth, power, and status pressure pushed borderland people to colonize, trade, raid, and found new political orders.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical example in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "vikings", "normandy", "rus", "status", "empire-building" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 3909.99, "end": 3990.1, "time_label": "1:05:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And there's a very good chance Trump will run again in 2028. Okay? But I, but I think these are two big hurricanes that are coming along the way. Not now, but they're coming along along the way. The big scary hurricane,..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 3990.7, "end": 4044.91, "time_label": "1:06:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The Vikings, which we'll discuss a lot, they're in Northern Europe. And for most of human history, we had actually no idea they were there. Okay? They were in the north in Denmark, in Norway, in Sweden. And they basical..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 4044.91, "end": 4121.882, "time_label": "1:07:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Normandy. All right? And then they went over here to Ukraine along the river because they were trading with the Islamic Empire. And they founded colonies or new settlements. And this was a peaceful process. Okay? Becaus..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 4121.882, "end": 4195.189, "time_label": "1:08:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The hurricane is created because they have wealth, power, but they don't have enough status positions so that they expand to fill these status positions. Okay? This is actually what drives empire building. Does that mak..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "diagnoses": [ { "claim": "Jiang identifies Ukraine, the Middle East, and the United States against the world as the three major conflicts framing the 2025 semester.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "temporal_scope": "Current-events diagnosis dated 2025-02-18.", "topic_tags": [ "current-events", "ukraine", "middle-east", "united-states" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.05, "end": 83.38, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, good morning. So welcome to the first class of the second semester. This semester we are going to build on what we've learned the first semester to better understand human history and to better understand what's h..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 83.38, "end": 162.71, "time_label": "1:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "war in Ukraine, it is still happening, and it's affecting everything and everyone because obviously, it brings a lot of instability and uncertainty in the world, but it's also driving up prices and it's making things in..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 317.35, "end": 395.04, "time_label": "5:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "There are these geopolitical factors, as I've discussed, but there are also these religious factors that we looked into a bit last semester, but I will explain more this semester, okay? And then the third and final conf..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Pax Americana brought prosperity by securing trade routes but also produced conflict because the United States could destroy countries without effective restraint.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical diagnosis of the post-1991 unipolar moment.", "topic_tags": [ "pax-americana", "unipolarity", "trade", "war" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 317.35, "end": 395.04, "time_label": "5:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "There are these geopolitical factors, as I've discussed, but there are also these religious factors that we looked into a bit last semester, but I will explain more this semester, okay? And then the third and final conf..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 395.76, "end": 479.02, "time_label": "6:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "China would not have grown as fast as China did without the Pax Americana. It is American ships, American warships, that allow Chinese ships to sail safely around the world, to deliver goods around the world. But this u..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang interprets Trump as a king figure in the cycle because he tells the people corrupt elites are stealing from them and asks for power to destroy those elites.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "temporal_scope": "Contemporary application stated on 2025-02-18.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "king", "elite-conflict", "united-states" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 927.84, "end": 981.25, "time_label": "15:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "government okay when the nobility is in charge in an Arlarchy when but then a king and the people work together or throw in a create a monarchy and then they and the king becomes corrupt and so the nobility and the peop..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 981.25, "end": 1023.65, "time_label": "16:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history four years his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history so that's idea of a cycle right we also have so that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that Christian Zionist belief in war as the trigger for Jesus returning is one of the main causes of Middle East conflict.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretive diagnosis stated on 2025-02-18.", "topic_tags": [ "christian-zionism", "second-coming", "middle-east", "end-times" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1171.71, "end": 1250.54, "time_label": "19:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We no longer have to argue about this. Everyone should try to be a liberal consumer democracy, including China. And if everyone became a consumer liberal democracy, there will be no more war. We won't want to fight beca..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1250.56, "end": 1324.7, "time_label": "20:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "is that this idea, it sounds like a simple idea, but this idea is what's driving a lot of the conflict in the Middle East. Believe it or not, but there are millions of Christians, they're called Christian Zionists by th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says history has failed as a discipline when it cannot use past patterns to explain Trump, Ukraine, or the Middle East and predict what comes next.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0022" ], "temporal_scope": "Methodological critique dated 2025-02-18.", "topic_tags": [ "historical-method", "prediction", "truth" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1482.29, "end": 1568.5, "time_label": "24:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It's a much more complicated model than these two models. But I think it is much more useful in helping us predict the causes of historical development. Okay? I want to argue why these two models don't really work..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1570.39, "end": 1635.17, "time_label": "26:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And for me, this is frustrating because if the history is any good, if the history is accurate, then it should help us predict the future. Or at least better understand the present. Okay? So the idea of truth. What is t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Long-lived empires collapse when debt, landlessness, rent-seeking corruption, and elite conflict make the population and army unreliable.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "temporal_scope": "Empire-collapse diagnosis in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "empire-collapse", "debt", "landlessness", "corruption" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3208.29, "end": 3291.12, "time_label": "53:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "This creates civil war. In fact, if you are to look at America today, you can say there's a civil war going on between two different factions of the elite. Okay? Does that make sense? And this is what drives a lot of hi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3291.12, "end": 3365.66, "time_label": "54:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "human history, empires that have persisted for the longest have this huge problem where the majority of the population suffers from too much debt and suffers from too much landlessness. No opportunities. Okay? Then what..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "other_claims": [ { "claim": "The cyclical model understands historical development through repeating patterns such as seasons, lives, and Chinese dynastic rise and decline.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition of a historical model in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "cycle", "dynastic-cycle", "historical-models" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 564.9, "end": 627.84, "time_label": "9:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And in the past, there have been two main models for understanding historical development. Okay, so the first is the idea of a cycle or a circle. And this makes sense, right? Because this mirrors what we experience in l..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The line model treats history as progress toward truth or a good end rather than an endless cycle.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition of a historical model in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "line-model", "progress", "truth", "end-of-history" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 981.25, "end": 1023.65, "time_label": "16:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history four years his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history so that's idea of a cycle right we also have so that..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1023.65, "end": 1105.56, "time_label": "17:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "on us in a useless cycle it is moving towards a truth is moving towards a good end okay so then this idea has been around for a very long time remember in the Bible but when King David first sponsored rhyme a Bible the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1105.56, "end": 1171.25, "time_label": "18:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "wars that will eventually lead to the rise of Augustus Caesar and this will create something called the Pax Romana and this is the end of history this is where all movement ends because once you achieve the Pax Romana t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Hegelian dialectic is a line model because conflict between ideas is still understood as progress toward truth.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition and classification in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "hegel", "dialectic", "line-model", "marxism" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1325.36, "end": 1398.988, "time_label": "22:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Alright? Now, what's important for us to understand is that these are the two basic frameworks of history. But there are variations to these two basic models. Okay? So for example, Hegel. We'll discuss Friedrich Hegel l..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1398.988, "end": 1481.27, "time_label": "23:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But it's like this almost. Right? There's an idea, something comes into conflict and this leads to a new idea which then leads to a new idea. Okay? But he still believes that we are progressing towards the truth through..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Truth, for Jiang in this lecture, must explain why something happened and predict future developments.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0022" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "truth", "explanation", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1570.39, "end": 1635.17, "time_label": "26:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And for me, this is frustrating because if the history is any good, if the history is accurate, then it should help us predict the future. Or at least better understand the present. Okay? So the idea of truth. What is t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Culture is meta-reality: the understanding of the world from which all other understandings derive.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "culture", "meta-reality", "world-model" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1711.878, "end": 1794.43, "time_label": "28:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "What I want to show you is the world is divided into cultural ecosystems. Cultural ecosystems. This is a really important idea you need to know for the rest of the semester. What I will argue is that culture is the meta..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Borderlands are intersections of empires, such as Mongolia for China and Arabia for Byzantine and Sassanian empires.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "borderlands", "mongolia", "arabia", "empires" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2113.999, "end": 2196.19, "time_label": "35:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How were the Mongolians and the Manchus able to conquer the Chinese Empire? All right? And what I will show you this semester is when this happens, when an empire is conquered, the pattern is the same. There's a consist..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Financialism begins when lending, investing, and rent seeking become more profitable than entrepreneurship or producing real goods.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0035" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition and causal model in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "financialism", "rent-seeking", "capital", "piketty" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2408.21, "end": 2499.003, "time_label": "40:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How is it possible for the borderlands, which, again, is only a fraction of the wealth, the population and the resources of the empire, how were they able to conquer the empire? And this is a really important lesson you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2499.003, "end": 2580.44, "time_label": "41:39", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I'm creating wealth for the society. Right? You can also do that by building a factory. But over time, what happens is you eventually realize that it's more profitable for you to lend money than to build things. Does th..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2580.48, "end": 2672.72, "time_label": "43:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? So, the example is, okay, there are five restaurants in Beijing. They're obviously trying to compete against each other for customers. So, they lower prices and try to create better food. But event..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang uses Piketty to contrast financial capital returns with real-economy returns, arguing that young people invest in assets because real work is less rewarded.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0036" ], "temporal_scope": "Economic diagnosis in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "piketty", "financial-capital", "real-economy", "bitcoin" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2580.48, "end": 2672.72, "time_label": "43:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? So, the example is, okay, there are five restaurants in Beijing. They're obviously trying to compete against each other for customers. So, they lower prices and try to create better food. But event..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2672.72, "end": 2742.68, "time_label": "44:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? On average, if you put $100 in the stock market, you make $5. All right? But the return on the real economy is only 2%. Meaning, if you start a factory and you hire people, or you start a restaurant, which contrib..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Elite overproduction is conflict among the haves: too many elite people compete for too few status positions, and because elites have power they can turn conflict into civil war.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition in this lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "elite-overproduction", "civil-war", "status", "revolution" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3138.14, "end": 3208.09, "time_label": "52:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does that make sense? Any questions before I continue? Are you guys clear about this? And the third boundary condition is the idea of elite overproduction. What is elite overproduction? Well, it's the same as radi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3208.29, "end": 3291.12, "time_label": "53:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "This creates civil war. In fact, if you are to look at America today, you can say there's a civil war going on between two different factions of the elite. Okay? Does that make sense? And this is what drives a lot of hi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang previews the next arc as Roman decline, the Frankish or Holy Roman Empire, and then the rise of the Vikings.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0057" ], "temporal_scope": "Course-sequence note at the end of the 2025-02-18 lecture.", "topic_tags": [ "frankish-empire", "vikings", "course-sequence" ], "claim_type": "other", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 4195.189, "end": 4209.44, "time_label": "1:09:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the Frankish Empire will lead to the rise of the Vikings. All right? All right. So those are the next three classes. All right. Great." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "glossary_terms": [ { "term": "borderland culture", "usages": [ "A culture shaped by frontier conditions around freedom, egalitarianism, independence, and self-reliance." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0047" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 3470.7, "end": 3550.45, "time_label": "57:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That makes no sense to you. Right? So what I'm trying to say, what I'm trying to tell you is this is a wrong way of looking at it. A better way of looking at it is culture. In the borderlands, there's a certain culture..." } ] }, { "term": "borderlands", "usages": [ "Regions at the intersection or edge of empires that begin isolated, interact with empire, become energized, and may later expand against the empire." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2113.999, "end": 2196.19, "time_label": "35:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How were the Mongolians and the Manchus able to conquer the Chinese Empire? All right? And what I will show you this semester is when this happens, when an empire is conquered, the pattern is the same. There's a consist..." } ] }, { "term": "Christian Zionists", "usages": [ "Christians Jiang says want Middle East war because they believe end-times crisis will force Jesus to return." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1250.56, "end": 1324.7, "time_label": "20:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "is that this idea, it sounds like a simple idea, but this idea is what's driving a lot of the conflict in the Middle East. Believe it or not, but there are millions of Christians, they're called Christian Zionists by th..." } ] }, { "term": "cultural ecosystem", "usages": [ "A historically and geographically shaped cultural world whose members share orientation even when language and local conditions differ." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1929.3, "end": 2004.34, "time_label": "32:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "This thought experiment, I hope, shows you the persistence of culture. It's the most important part of who you are. It drives everything else. It drives how you see the world. It drives how you interact with others. Oka..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2007.34, "end": 2113.999, "time_label": "33:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And then you have the steppes. Okay? So remember the steppes are this grassland, this ocean of grassland that basically extends from Hungary to Mongolia. Okay? And then you have China, India. Okay? So there are these di..." } ] }, { "term": "cyclical model of history", "usages": [ "A model in which history moves like seasons or dynasties: rise, decline, rebellion, renewal, and repetition." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 564.9, "end": 627.84, "time_label": "9:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And in the past, there have been two main models for understanding historical development. Okay, so the first is the idea of a cycle or a circle. And this makes sense, right? Because this mirrors what we experience in l..." } ] }, { "term": "dialectic", "usages": [ "A conflict or conversation between ideas that produces a new idea while still moving toward truth." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1325.36, "end": 1398.988, "time_label": "22:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Alright? Now, what's important for us to understand is that these are the two basic frameworks of history. But there are variations to these two basic models. Okay? So for example, Hegel. We'll discuss Friedrich Hegel l..." } ] }, { "term": "elite overproduction", "usages": [ "A status crisis among elites where too many claimants compete for too few high positions, producing intra-elite conflict and civil war." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3138.14, "end": 3208.09, "time_label": "52:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does that make sense? Any questions before I continue? Are you guys clear about this? And the third boundary condition is the idea of elite overproduction. What is elite overproduction? Well, it's the same as radi..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3208.29, "end": 3291.12, "time_label": "53:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "This creates civil war. In fact, if you are to look at America today, you can say there's a civil war going on between two different factions of the elite. Okay? Does that make sense? And this is what drives a lot of hi..." } ] }, { "term": "financialism", "usages": [ "A mature economic condition where rentier and asset behavior outcompete productive work, forcing stagnation or war-reset." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2408.21, "end": 2499.003, "time_label": "40:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How is it possible for the borderlands, which, again, is only a fraction of the wealth, the population and the resources of the empire, how were they able to conquer the empire? And this is a really important lesson you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2744.33, "end": 2815.9, "time_label": "45:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And when you're in this situation, what are you forced to do now? If you're a society and you want to continue, what are you forced to do? See me? No. What do you do? Historically, what have societies done in order to g..." } ] }, { "term": "hurricane", "usages": [ "Jiang's metaphor for a matured historical current that runs through empires and borderlands until its energy is exhausted." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3632.11, "end": 3699.27, "time_label": "1:00:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And when they win, they create a lot of destruction. Okay? And that's the idea I want you to implant in your head. These are currents. These are natural forces that are unstoppable. Once they start, you cannot stop them..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3784.08, "end": 3850.58, "time_label": "1:03:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. What starts these hurricanes? Or what starts this process? All right. So, if you look at an ocean, you will discover that these currents are happening all the time. You understand? There's no start. They're always..." } ] }, { "term": "jubilee", "usages": [ "Debt cancellation that legitimizes a new king by resolving the conflict between people and nobility." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 864.02, "end": 927.84, "time_label": "14:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for the fact that he cleared away their debts this this is what we call jubilee by the way the word is jubilee and this happens a lot in human history but the problem is the king has a son who's not so good and then the..." } ] }, { "term": "line model of history", "usages": [ "A model in which history moves toward truth, peace, or a final good end rather than repeating in cycles." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 981.25, "end": 1023.65, "time_label": "16:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history four years his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history so that's idea of a cycle right we also have so that..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1105.56, "end": 1171.25, "time_label": "18:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "wars that will eventually lead to the rise of Augustus Caesar and this will create something called the Pax Romana and this is the end of history this is where all movement ends because once you achieve the Pax Romana t..." } ] }, { "term": "meta-reality", "usages": [ "The underlying cultural understanding from which other understandings of the world derive." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1711.878, "end": 1794.43, "time_label": "28:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "What I want to show you is the world is divided into cultural ecosystems. Cultural ecosystems. This is a really important idea you need to know for the rest of the semester. What I will argue is that culture is the meta..." } ] }, { "term": "mountaintop status model", "usages": [ "Jiang's image of society as a line toward status positions; collapse comes when those at the top never leave." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2956.13, "end": 3019.36, "time_label": "49:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Everyday food would come down from the heavens. And all the rats could do whatever they want. They would have complete freedom. This is what we call rat utopia. It turned out all society collapsed. It was a complete dis..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3068.22, "end": 3136.32, "time_label": "51:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And they're not dying. So what are young people doing? Tengping, Bailan, right? Quiet quitting. Lying flat. Because you don't see any opportunities. What you want is not money. What you want is status. And that requires..." } ] }, { "term": "Normandy", "usages": [ "The land of the North people, used as an example of Viking borderland energy becoming a new political formation." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0055" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 3990.7, "end": 4044.91, "time_label": "1:06:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The Vikings, which we'll discuss a lot, they're in Northern Europe. And for most of human history, we had actually no idea they were there. Okay? They were in the north in Denmark, in Norway, in Sweden. And they basical..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 4044.91, "end": 4121.882, "time_label": "1:07:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Normandy. All right? And then they went over here to Ukraine along the river because they were trading with the Islamic Empire. And they founded colonies or new settlements. And this was a peaceful process. Okay? Becaus..." } ] }, { "term": "oceanic currents of history", "usages": [ "Jiang's model of history as interacting cultural ecosystems and currents that collide, energize, and develop without moralized line or cycle assumptions." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1635.7, "end": 1711.878, "time_label": "27:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it helps us also predict what will happen. Okay? And this model is what I call the oceanic currents of history. Imagine the world as a huge ocean. And within each ocean, there's an ecosystem, which has currents. And..." } ] }, { "term": "Pax Americana", "usages": [ "The American peace: a post-Soviet unipolar order in which the United States protects trade and dictates economic policy while also exercising destructive military power." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 317.35, "end": 395.04, "time_label": "5:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "There are these geopolitical factors, as I've discussed, but there are also these religious factors that we looked into a bit last semester, but I will explain more this semester, okay? And then the third and final conf..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 395.76, "end": 479.02, "time_label": "6:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "China would not have grown as fast as China did without the Pax Americana. It is American ships, American warships, that allow Chinese ships to sail safely around the world, to deliver goods around the world. But this u..." } ] }, { "term": "rat utopia", "usages": [ "An abundance experiment Jiang uses as a social model for collapse when ritual and status pathways disappear." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2816.38, "end": 2887.14, "time_label": "46:56", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right now in the West, it's the same thing as well. And at that point, you have no choice but to start a war to reset your society. Or your society will continue to decline. So the first boundary condition, war societie..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2956.13, "end": 3019.36, "time_label": "49:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Everyday food would come down from the heavens. And all the rats could do whatever they want. They would have complete freedom. This is what we call rat utopia. It turned out all society collapsed. It was a complete dis..." } ] }, { "term": "rent-seeking behavior", "usages": [ "The attempt to consolidate capital, create monopoly-like control, and charge rents instead of creating new value." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0035" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2580.48, "end": 2672.72, "time_label": "43:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? So, the example is, okay, there are five restaurants in Beijing. They're obviously trying to compete against each other for customers. So, they lower prices and try to create better food. But event..." } ] }, { "term": "Rus", "usages": [ "The Viking-linked trading settlements Jiang identifies as the beginning of Russia." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0055" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 4044.91, "end": 4121.882, "time_label": "1:07:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Normandy. All right? And then they went over here to Ukraine along the river because they were trading with the Islamic Empire. And they founded colonies or new settlements. And this was a peaceful process. Okay? Becaus..." } ] }, { "term": "symbiotic empire-borderland relation", "usages": [ "The initial dependence between empire and borderland through trade, mercenary service, and raiding." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2113.999, "end": 2196.19, "time_label": "35:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "How were the Mongolians and the Manchus able to conquer the Chinese Empire? All right? And what I will show you this semester is when this happens, when an empire is conquered, the pattern is the same. There's a consist..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2196.19, "end": 2267.5, "time_label": "36:36", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? In three ways. The first and the first most simple way that they interact is through trade. Okay? They trade with each other. Second way they interact is through military cooperation. So what often happens is the..." } ] } ], "chronology_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0001" ], "note": "The lecture is dated 2025-02-18 and explicitly opens the second semester by connecting the course to ongoing wars and predictions.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.05, "end": 83.38, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, good morning. So welcome to the first class of the second semester. This semester we are going to build on what we've learned the first semester to better understand human history and to better understand what's h..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "note": "The Trump-as-king diagnosis is dated to the first months of the 2025 Trump presidency and should remain tied to this date.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 927.84, "end": 981.25, "time_label": "15:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "government okay when the nobility is in charge in an Arlarchy when but then a king and the people work together or throw in a create a monarchy and then they and the king becomes corrupt and so the nobility and the peop..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 981.25, "end": 1023.65, "time_label": "16:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history four years his ambition is to be king okay and we see the cycle throughout human history so that's idea of a cycle right we also have so that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "note": "The Christian Zionism diagnosis is attached to Jiang's 2025-02-18 framing of ongoing Middle East conflict.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1250.56, "end": 1324.7, "time_label": "20:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "is that this idea, it sounds like a simple idea, but this idea is what's driving a lot of the conflict in the Middle East. Believe it or not, but there are millions of Christians, they're called Christian Zionists by th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "note": "Jiang explicitly applies elite civil-war dynamics to China and the United States as of 2025-02-18.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3208.29, "end": 3291.12, "time_label": "53:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "This creates civil war. In fact, if you are to look at America today, you can say there's a civil war going on between two different factions of the elite. Okay? Does that make sense? And this is what drives a lot of hi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "note": "The American civil-war forecast is explicitly tied to the still-future 2028 election from the source date of 2025-02-18.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 3851.3, "end": 3909.23, "time_label": "1:04:11", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "All right? Now, a lot of people are saying the conflict will be between China and the U.S. I do not think that's the case. I do not think the conflict will be between the United States and China. I think it will involve..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0057" ], "note": "The episode ends by locating the next three classes after this 2025-02-18 lecture: Roman Empire, Frankish/Holy Roman Empire, then Vikings.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 4195.189, "end": 4209.44, "time_label": "1:09:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the Frankish Empire will lead to the rise of the Vikings. All right? All right. So those are the next three classes. All right. Great." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "uncertainty_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0002" ], "note": "ASR likely garbles one clause around Israel and Syria, but the intended point is that Israel is engaged across multiple neighboring fronts.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 83.38, "end": 162.71, "time_label": "1:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "war in Ukraine, it is still happening, and it's affecting everything and everyone because obviously, it brings a lot of instability and uncertainty in the world, but it's also driving up prices and it's making things in..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ], "note": "ASR renders oligarchy inconsistently as Arlarchy; context indicates Jiang means oligarchy.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 864.02, "end": 927.84, "time_label": "14:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for the fact that he cleared away their debts this this is what we call jubilee by the way the word is jubilee and this happens a lot in human history but the problem is the king has a son who's not so good and then the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 927.84, "end": 981.25, "time_label": "15:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "government okay when the nobility is in charge in an Arlarchy when but then a king and the people work together or throw in a create a monarchy and then they and the king becomes corrupt and so the nobility and the peop..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "note": "ASR renders a phrase as \"The north mid\"; context indicates Jiang is continuing the list of northern/Germanic borderland regions.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2267.5, "end": 2343.94, "time_label": "37:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The north mid. So these are all isolated parts. But as the empire expands, they start to interact with these isolated ecosystems. And when they interact, what happens is these borderlands become energized. Okay? It's li..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0035" ], "note": "ASR says \"rent-sinking\" and \"Native rent-sinking\"; context indicates rent-seeking behavior.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2580.48, "end": 2672.72, "time_label": "43:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? So, the example is, okay, there are five restaurants in Beijing. They're obviously trying to compete against each other for customers. So, they lower prices and try to create better food. But event..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0043" ], "note": "ASR renders rat utopia as \"radiotopia\" in places; context confirms Jiang is continuing the rat utopia model.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3068.22, "end": 3136.32, "time_label": "51:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And they're not dying. So what are young people doing? Tengping, Bailan, right? Quiet quitting. Lying flat. Because you don't see any opportunities. What you want is not money. What you want is status. And that requires..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3138.14, "end": 3208.09, "time_label": "52:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does that make sense? Any questions before I continue? Are you guys clear about this? And the third boundary condition is the idea of elite overproduction. What is elite overproduction? Well, it's the same as radi..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "note": "Jiang names Eva while answering; the exact student question is not captured, but his answer indicates a question about whether the hurricane continues until it overwhelms the empire.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-hioyqbbbllk@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 3909.99, "end": 3990.1, "time_label": "1:05:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And there's a very good chance Trump will run again in 2028. Okay? But I, but I think these are two big hurricanes that are coming along the way. Not now, but they're coming along along the way. The big scary hurricane,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ] }