diagnosis
Jiang argues that older Black voters supported Biden in 2020 partly from loyalty to Obama's vice president, but that by 2024 the debt has been paid and Biden must answer what he has done for them.
Topic brief
A Jiang Lens evidence brief for this topic, built from source tags, transcript matches, and linked source refs.
Black Voters
Jiang argues that older Black voters supported Biden in 2020 partly from loyalty to Obama's vice president, but that by 2024 the debt has been paid and Biden must answer what he has done for them.
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Key Notes
diagnosis
Jiang says the George Floyd protests made Black voters and young voters view Trump as hostile or racist in 2020, but that this anti-Trump mobilization may not transfer to Biden in 2024.
diagnosis
Jiang argues that inflation, illegal immigration, and Ukraine aid damage Biden among Black and poorer voters by lowering living standards and making Biden look like a bad leader.
Timestamped Evidence
Transcript
"Assuming that if 65,000 people in key battleground states flip their votes, then Trump would have won. Okay, so the margin of victory was..."
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"But this year the debt is paid off, right? So they won't feel so loyal to Biden, okay? Also in 2020, there's something called..."
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"So many Americans see this as just bad leadership, okay? So that's black people. And recent polls show that actually Biden's lead with black..."
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"And in fact, you can make the argument that Biden has really hurt the standard of living of black people, why? Because inflation has..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
Reading
A dated May 2024 election model: Biden's 2020 coalition weakens, the suburbs become the hinge, and Trump can win by turning Nikki Haley from enemy into evidence that he has changed.
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Related Topics
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