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He predicts that in a second Trump term, war with Iran would become a major priority, citing the Iran nuclear deal withdrawal, the Jerusalem embassy move, tolerance of MBS after Khashoggi's killing, the Abraham Accords, and the Soleimani...
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He predicts that in a second Trump term, war with Iran would become a major priority, citing the Iran nuclear deal withdrawal, the Jerusalem embassy move, tolerance of MBS after Khashoggi's killing, the Abraham Accords, and the Soleimani assassination as evidence.
Jiang argues that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard wants war with the United States because of U.S. support for the Shah, protection of Israel and Saudi Arabia, and Trump's killing of Qasem Soleimani.
Jiang contrasts Raisi's case with the killing of Soleimani, Israeli assassinations of nuclear scientists, and the April 2024 Damascus strike, where he says the motive was clearer.
Jiang suspects that politicians such as Raisi urged patience and restraint after Soleimani's killing and the April 2024 Damascus strike, while the IRGC wanted vengeance and war.
"As we also discussed, it's very likely that Trump will become President of the United States again in November, and he will pick Nikki..."
"...that in January 2020, Trump ordered the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani, who is the leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, okay? So from..."
"...And they're also angry about the fact that Trump killed General Soleimani, okay? And as we discussed, it's possible that the Revolutionary Guard Corps..."
"So they want war with the United States. So you see the map, right? You see the logic of this, where there are powerful..."
"...in January 2020, President Donald Trump ordered the assassination of General Soleimani in Baghdad, okay? But there was a motive here. And the motive..."
"And Israel in the past has staged assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists in Iran. But again, the motive is, well, Israel is afraid that..."
"...Is that in January 2020. In January 2020. Remember that General Soleimani was assassinated by the Americans. The Iranian response wasn't that big of..."
"Okay? Going to war against Israel and the United States right now is suicidal. So they were urging caution and restraint. And the Revolutionary..."
A source-grounded reading of the lecture's central claim: the Iran war that looks like American domination is the moment the United States becomes trapped, because geography, supply, domestic politics, sunk cost, and nuclear deterrence...
A source-grounded reading of the lecture's central move: the crash was probably an accident, but if it was not, Jiang asks who had opportunity, motive, and the most to gain.
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