Jiang evaluates Philip's assassination using motive and opportunity and rejects Persia as likely because it had motive but no plausible access to Philip's inner court.
Topic brief
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Opportunity
Jiang evaluates Philip's assassination using motive and opportunity and rejects Persia as likely because it had motive but no plausible access to Philip's inner court.
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Key Notes
The foreign-adversary theory is possible but weak in Jiang's analysis because a foreign government would face severe opportunity problems and an unclear motive for killing Raisi.
An internal enemy has a stronger opportunity profile in Jiang's analysis because Iranian military or security actors could plausibly have had access to the president's helicopter movement.
Timestamped Evidence
"...evaluate a murder, you always look at two things. Look at opportunity. Who has the chance to kill him? You look at motive. Okay?..."
"...for this. The problem with this theory, though, is one of opportunity and motive, okay? So what this means is it's very hard as..."
"And Israel in the past has staged assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists in Iran. But again, the motive is, well, Israel is afraid that..."
"And so with this internal enemy idea, opportunity, this problem doesn't exist because obviously these enemies would have resources to track down and kill..."
Relevant Lectures And Readings
Greek culture did not spread because everyone recognized its beauty.
A source-grounded reading of the lecture's central move: the crash was probably an accident, but if it was not, Jiang asks who had opportunity, motive, and the most to gain.
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