diagnosis
Jiang says the most probable explanation for Raisi's death is an accident caused by fog, poor visibility, and the risks of an old helicopter fleet that Iran struggled to maintain after the revolution.
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Helicopter Crash
Jiang says the most probable explanation for Raisi's death is an accident caused by fog, poor visibility, and the risks of an old helicopter fleet that Iran struggled to maintain after the revolution.
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Key Notes
diagnosis
An internal enemy has a stronger opportunity profile in Jiang's analysis because Iranian military or security actors could plausibly have had access to the president's helicopter movement.
Timestamped Evidence
Transcript
"Does that make sense? But the problem again is we are working with very limited information that the Iranian government chooses to disclose to..."
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"...the very famous basketball player Kobe Bryant, he died in a helicopter crash along with his daughter, okay? So this actually happens a lot...."
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"And Israel in the past has staged assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists in Iran. But again, the motive is, well, Israel is afraid that..."
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"And so with this internal enemy idea, opportunity, this problem doesn't exist because obviously these enemies would have resources to track down and kill..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
Reading
A source-grounded reading of the lecture's central move: the crash was probably an accident, but if it was not, Jiang asks who had opportunity, motive, and the most to gain.
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