diagnosis
The foreign-adversary theory is possible but weak in Jiang's analysis because a foreign government would face severe opportunity problems and an unclear motive for killing Raisi.
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Foreign Adversary
The foreign-adversary theory is possible but weak in Jiang's analysis because a foreign government would face severe opportunity problems and an unclear motive for killing Raisi.
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Key Notes
Timestamped Evidence
Transcript
"Second possibility is foreign adversary, which means that either the United States or Israel or even possibly Azerbaijan, okay? But a foreign adversary was..."
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Transcript
"...again, I am not discounting the possibility it could be a foreign adversary. And the third possibility is an internal enemy, okay? Meaning that..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
Reading
A source-grounded reading of the lecture's central move: the crash was probably an accident, but if it was not, Jiang asks who had opportunity, motive, and the most to gain.
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