diagnosis
Jiang says the George Floyd protests made Black voters and young voters view Trump as hostile or racist in 2020, but that this anti-Trump mobilization may not transfer to Biden in 2024.
Topic brief
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George Floyd
Jiang argues that George Floyd protests and the pandemic unexpectedly allowed Biden to win: voters were galvanized against Trump, Trump could not campaign normally, and Biden could stay in his basement.
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Key Notes
model
Jiang argues that George Floyd protests and the pandemic unexpectedly allowed Biden to win: voters were galvanized against Trump, Trump could not campaign normally, and Biden could stay in his basement.
Timestamped Evidence
Transcript
"...loyal to Biden, okay? Also in 2020, there's something called a George Floyd protest. So what happened was that in May 2020, a black..."
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"...right? And they were driven to believe this because of the George Floyd protests. Unfortunately, this year, young people may not feel compelled to..."
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"...2020, Biden had no chance. But then what happened? Hey, the George Floyd protest happened. So all these young people who didn't really like..."
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"hey, if I just sit in my basement all day and make no mistakes, my surrogates, the Democrats, they're going to be like, what?..."
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"...we saw that during the first Trump presidency. Because of the George Floyd. Black Lives Matter protests. Okay? So, we'll see more of that..."
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"...fought all the time. And what really showed this was the George Floyd protests, right? So you had protesters rioting in the streets. And..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
Reading
A dated May 2024 election model: Biden's 2020 coalition weakens, the suburbs become the hinge, and Trump can win by turning Nikki Haley from enemy into evidence that he has changed.
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