{ "generated_by": "Generated by ops/scripts/compile-content.mjs. Do not edit by hand.", "generated_at": "deterministic", "slug": "interview-obqsun0g0u4", "id": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4", "source_class": "interview", "collection": "interviews", "title": "‘Trump Needs to APOLOGIZE!’ Will Iran Claim Victory Over America? | Plus Professor Jiang Interview", "source_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4", "video_id": "obQsUn0G0U4", "embed_url": "https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/obQsUn0G0U4", "published_at": "2026-03-12", "recorded_at": null, "date_precision": "day", "date_label": "2026-03-12, day precision", "chronology_status": "dated", "channel": { "id": "UCatt7TBjfBkiJWx8khav_Gg", "handle": "UCatt7TBjfBkiJWx8khav_Gg", "title": "Piers Morgan Uncensored", "url": "https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCatt7TBjfBkiJWx8khav_Gg" }, "path_base": "/interviews", "path": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_path": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/", "data_url": "/data/lens/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4.json", "counts": { "semantic_passes": 8, "interactions": 24, "speaker_notes": 10, "claims": 30, "signature_moments": 16, "predictions": 4, "models": 8, "glossary_terms": 11, "chronology_notes": 8, "uncertainty_notes": 8, "glossary_candidates": 11, "transcript_segments": 64, "transcript_words": 10204, "duration_seconds": 3469.51, "duration_label": "57:49" }, "paths": { "source": "content/sources/videos/interview-obqsun0g0u4/source.yaml", "transcript": "content/sources/videos/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcripts/v1/transcript.clean.jsonl", "semantic_bundle": "content/lens/evidence/videos/interview-obqsun0g0u4.semantic.json", "semantic_passes": [ "content/workflow/proposals/interview-obqsun0g0u4/packet-0001.semantic.json", "content/workflow/proposals/interview-obqsun0g0u4/packet-0002.semantic.json", "content/workflow/proposals/interview-obqsun0g0u4/packet-0003.semantic.json", "content/workflow/proposals/interview-obqsun0g0u4/packet-0004.semantic.json", "content/workflow/proposals/interview-obqsun0g0u4/packet-0005.semantic.json", "content/workflow/proposals/interview-obqsun0g0u4/packet-0006.semantic.json", "content/workflow/proposals/interview-obqsun0g0u4/packet-0007.semantic.json", "content/workflow/proposals/interview-obqsun0g0u4/packet-0008.semantic.json" ], "read": "content/lens/episodes/interview-obqsun0g0u4/read.json" }, "read": { "id": "episode-read:interview-obqsun0g0u4:v1", "kind": "episode-read", "schema_version": 2, "source_id": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4", "slug": "interview-obqsun0g0u4", "title": "Empire Breaks When Hormuz Stays Closed", "subtitle": "Piers Morgan interviews Professor Jiang on war attrition, GCC fragility, the petrodollar trap, shattered imperial aura, and the speculative eschatology behind Iran war forecasting", "read_time": "8 min", "editorial_mode": "distilled-interview", "voice_policy": "Direct argumentative prose derived from the interview. Preserve Piers Morgan's challenge-response structure where it pressures Jiang from prediction validation into GCC economics, imperial collapse, eschatology, and the defense of speculative predictive modeling. Keep speculative geopolitical and eschatological claims framed as Jiang's dated interpretation from March 12, 2026.", "trace_policy": "Paragraph-level transcript refs with selective evidence marks on sharp thesis phrases, real interviewer questions, and jump-worthy Jiang formulations.", "dek": "Piers brings Jiang on because two earlier predictions already landed and a third appears to be unfolding: Trump won, war with Iran came, and now the question is whether America can survive the kind of war it started. Jiang's answer is that the real battlefield is not only Iran's military but the economic order that made Gulf glamour, petrodollar finance, cheap energy, AI hype, and American invincibility feel normal.", "thesis": "This interview turns Jiang's Iran-war forecast into a short public stress test. Piers keeps the questions practical: will Iran really prevail, would Trump send ground troops, what if Hormuz stays closed, are the GCC monarchies now existentially exposed, and what should anyone make of Jiang's apocalyptic theory about who wants this war. Jiang's answer moves in layers. First, the war is attritional: America degrades military capacity while Iran strangles the economic world-system. Second, the empire is trapped: a ground invasion becomes Vietnam, but retreat risks petrodollar collapse, GCC realignment, and unrest at home. Third, cheap energy underwrites everything from food to semiconductors to travel, so a long closure means de-industrialization and mercantilist survival politics. Fourth, the war's deepest target is the aura of Pax Americana itself. Then the interview crosses into Jiang's most speculative terrain: eschatological societies, Greater Israel, AI surveillance, and predictive modeling as a method whose legitimacy comes from forecasts that seem to come true.", "opening": { "heading": "Core Reading", "text": "Jiang's central move is to treat the Iran war as a contest over imperial conditions, not only over territory or missiles. The United States can bomb, sanction, and posture. Iran can pressure the chokepoints that let Gulf oil, Gulf food imports, desalination systems, tourism economies, and dollar finance remain believable. That is why Jiang thinks Washington is cornered. If it escalates with ground troops, sunk costs lock it into another Vietnam. If it retreats, the Gulf may hedge toward Iran or some non-dollar settlement, exposing how much of American prosperity rests on petrodollar circulation and cheap energy. In this reading, the war is not merely against Israel or even the GCC. It is against the illusion that the American empire can still guarantee the world it built.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059" ], "marks": [ { "text": "war of attrition", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "the sunk cost fallacy kicks in", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "the illusion that the American empire can still guarantee the world it built", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 3114.41, "end": 3176.61, "time_label": "51:54", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "of america to project around the world and provide security guarantees uh to the gcc now this aura of inviability and invincibility of american empire has been shattered and once an illusion is shattered there's actuall..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2711.07, "end": 2775.04, "time_label": "45:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "right now doesn't have the manpower, the manufacturing capacity, and the political will to fight a long war of attrition on the ground in Iran. Right. So I think because of what you said at the end there, it's highly un..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2775.26, "end": 2850.16, "time_label": "46:15", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Now, let's assume that Trump does withdraw from the Middle East. And what happens is that the G.C.C. nations of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, now are going to Iran because they supply the world with their oil..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 2916.87, "end": 2981.87, "time_label": "48:36", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "remember food is produced by fertilizer which comes from the gcc as well as sulfuric acid which which is which helps the process of semiconductor production so artificial intelligence uh food production uh global travel..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 2981.87, "end": 3045.64, "time_label": "49:41", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "so if you go to southeast asia vietnam and thailand have already ordered the government workers to work from home in order to save fuel you've pointed out that the gulf corporation has been a very successful market for..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 3045.64, "end": 3114.41, "time_label": "50:45", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "deploying uh including the threats to desalination um but also targeting obviously targeted hotels and uh an airport and so on going to the heart of what the states there would like to see as the future of their economy..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 3114.41, "end": 3176.61, "time_label": "51:54", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "of america to project around the world and provide security guarantees uh to the gcc now this aura of inviability and invincibility of american empire has been shattered and once an illusion is shattered there's actuall..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, "beats": [ { "id": "prediction-check-war-of-attrition", "heading": "Prediction Check Becomes Attrition Model", "time_range": "43:06-46:16", "summary": "Piers starts by calling Jiang's earlier forecasts vindicated in public and asks whether the last one will land too: will Iran prevail? Jiang answers by redefining the war as attrition between American military degradation and Iranian economic strangulation.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "prediction-check-war-of-attrition-001", "text": "Piers does not introduce Jiang as a neutral commentator. He introduces him as the man who said Trump would win, then said war with Iran would come, and is now being asked whether the third prediction will land as well. Jiang's answer is immediate and structural. America is trying to degrade Iran's military capacity. Iran is trying to strangle the world economy by pressuring the GCC and the Strait of Hormuz.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "marks": [ { "text": "the third prediction will land as well", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "Iran is trying to strangle the world economy", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 2586, "end": 2640.22, "time_label": "43:06", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "said, there's been enough blood spilled, but it's taken us 20 years of relentless combat to get to today. And it's been a long time. The Middle East has suffered a lot. Yeah, it has. And it's actually very sad to see it..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "prediction-check-war-of-attrition-002", "text": "That shift matters because it changes the meaning of victory. If the empire answers with ground troops, Jiang says the conflict flips into a Vietnam logic: once troops go in, there is no graceful climbdown because sunk costs become political destiny. And the United States, in his telling, lacks the manpower, manufacturing capacity, and political will for a real war of attrition on Iranian ground.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "marks": [ { "text": "another Vietnam", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "manpower, manufacturing capacity, and political will", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2711.07, "end": 2775.04, "time_label": "45:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "right now doesn't have the manpower, the manufacturing capacity, and the political will to fight a long war of attrition on the ground in Iran. Right. So I think because of what you said at the end there, it's highly un..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2711.07, "end": 2775.04, "time_label": "45:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "right now doesn't have the manpower, the manufacturing capacity, and the political will to fight a long war of attrition on the ground in Iran. Right. So I think because of what you said at the end there, it's highly un..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 2586, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 2586, "end": 2640.22, "time_label": "43:06", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "said, there's been enough blood spilled, but it's taken us 20 years of relentless combat to get to today. And it's been a long time. The Middle East has suffered a lot. Yeah, it has. And it's actually very sad to see it..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2711.07, "end": 2775.04, "time_label": "45:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "right now doesn't have the manpower, the manufacturing capacity, and the political will to fight a long war of attrition on the ground in Iran. Right. So I think because of what you said at the end there, it's highly un..." } ] }, { "id": "retreat-exposes-the-ponzi", "heading": "Retreat Exposes The Petrodollar Trap", "time_range": "45:11-48:37", "summary": "Piers pushes on the opposite branch: if Trump refuses ground troops, what then? Jiang says withdrawal is not clean either because it hands leverage to Iran over Gulf monarchies, petrodollar flows, and the fantasy structure of the U.S. economy itself.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "retreat-exposes-the-ponzi-001", "text": "Piers's instinct is that Trump would avoid ground war because he campaigned against that exact disaster. Jiang agrees that Trump has the option to declare victory and leave, but says departure only moves the crisis to finance. If GCC states conclude Washington can no longer secure Hormuz, the center of gravity shifts away from the petrodollar and toward whatever settlement system Iran and its partners can stabilize.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054" ], "marks": [ { "text": "declare victory and leave", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2711.07, "end": 2775.04, "time_label": "45:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "right now doesn't have the manpower, the manufacturing capacity, and the political will to fight a long war of attrition on the ground in Iran. Right. So I think because of what you said at the end there, it's highly un..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "the center of gravity shifts away from the petrodollar", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2775.26, "end": 2850.16, "time_label": "46:15", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Now, let's assume that Trump does withdraw from the Middle East. And what happens is that the G.C.C. nations of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, now are going to Iran because they supply the world with their oil..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2711.07, "end": 2775.04, "time_label": "45:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "right now doesn't have the manpower, the manufacturing capacity, and the political will to fight a long war of attrition on the ground in Iran. Right. So I think because of what you said at the end there, it's highly un..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2775.26, "end": 2850.16, "time_label": "46:15", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Now, let's assume that Trump does withdraw from the Middle East. And what happens is that the G.C.C. nations of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, now are going to Iran because they supply the world with their oil..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "retreat-exposes-the-ponzi-002", "text": "Jiang's harshest compression comes here: the U.S. economy is described as a Ponzi scheme propped up by Gulf capital cycling into AI, tech stocks, and startup fantasy. In that model, retreat does not merely lose face abroad. It produces domestic fracture because the material system that funds American normality starts to wobble.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055" ], "marks": [ { "text": "the U.S. economy is a Ponzi scheme", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2775.26, "end": 2850.16, "time_label": "46:15", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Now, let's assume that Trump does withdraw from the Middle East. And what happens is that the G.C.C. nations of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, now are going to Iran because they supply the world with their oil..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "the material system that funds American normality starts to wobble", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 2850.16, "end": 2916.87, "time_label": "47:30", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": ". And this means that these young men could not afford their own offense anymore and this could lead to a revolution in the streets. 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So the consequences for America were dire if America were to retreat from the Middle E..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 2711, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2711.07, "end": 2775.04, "time_label": "45:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "right now doesn't have the manpower, the manufacturing capacity, and the political will to fight a long war of attrition on the ground in Iran. Right. So I think because of what you said at the end there, it's highly un..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2775.26, "end": 2850.16, "time_label": "46:15", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Now, let's assume that Trump does withdraw from the Middle East. And what happens is that the G.C.C. nations of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, now are going to Iran because they supply the world with their oil..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 2850.16, "end": 2916.87, "time_label": "47:30", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": ". And this means that these young men could not afford their own offense anymore and this could lead to a revolution in the streets. So the consequences for America were dire if America were to retreat from the Middle E..." } ] }, { "id": "cheap-energy-world-breaks", "heading": "Cheap Energy Was The Real Platform", "time_range": "47:30-50:46", "summary": "Piers narrows the question to Hormuz. Jiang widens it again: closure hits not just oil but fertilizer, semiconductors, food, flights, and the entire cheap-energy substrate of modern life.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "cheap-energy-world-breaks-001", "text": "Asked what an indefinite closure would do, Jiang answers by attacking modern abstraction. Cheap petroleum is not one commodity among others. It is the hidden platform beneath jet fuel, fertilizer, food logistics, sulfuric acid, semiconductor fabrication, AI infrastructure, and global travel. By the time he speaks, he says, two weeks of disruption have already pushed the world toward a point of no return.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "marks": [ { "text": "cheap petroleum is not one commodity among others", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 2916.87, "end": 2981.87, "time_label": "48:36", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "remember food is produced by fertilizer which comes from the gcc as well as sulfuric acid which which is which helps the process of semiconductor production so artificial intelligence uh food production uh global travel..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "a point of no return", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 2916.87, "end": 2981.87, "time_label": "48:36", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "remember food is produced by fertilizer which comes from the gcc as well as sulfuric acid which which is which helps the process of semiconductor production so artificial intelligence uh food production uh global travel..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 2850.16, "end": 2916.87, "time_label": "47:30", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": ". And this means that these young men could not afford their own offense anymore and this could lead to a revolution in the streets. So the consequences for America were dire if America were to retreat from the Middle E..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 2916.87, "end": 2981.87, "time_label": "48:36", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "remember food is produced by fertilizer which comes from the gcc as well as sulfuric acid which which is which helps the process of semiconductor production so artificial intelligence uh food production uh global travel..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "cheap-energy-world-breaks-002", "text": "The policy implication is brutal and anti-modern. Future economies, he says, will need de-industrialization and mercantilism simply to survive energy shocks. Even before that full adjustment, Southeast Asian states are already rationing fuel indirectly through work-from-home orders. The interview keeps insisting that what looks like geopolitics is really civilizational metabolism.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057" ], "marks": [ { "text": "de-industrialization and mercantilism", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 2916.87, "end": 2981.87, "time_label": "48:36", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "remember food is produced by fertilizer which comes from the gcc as well as sulfuric acid which which is which helps the process of semiconductor production so artificial intelligence uh food production uh global travel..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 2916.87, "end": 2981.87, "time_label": "48:36", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "remember food is produced by fertilizer which comes from the gcc as well as sulfuric acid which which is which helps the process of semiconductor production so artificial intelligence uh food production uh global travel..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 2981.87, "end": 3045.64, "time_label": "49:41", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "so if you go to southeast asia vietnam and thailand have already ordered the government workers to work from home in order to save fuel you've pointed out that the gulf corporation has been a very successful market for..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 2850, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 2850.16, "end": 2916.87, "time_label": "47:30", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": ". And this means that these young men could not afford their own offense anymore and this could lead to a revolution in the streets. So the consequences for America were dire if America were to retreat from the Middle E..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 2916.87, "end": 2981.87, "time_label": "48:36", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "remember food is produced by fertilizer which comes from the gcc as well as sulfuric acid which which is which helps the process of semiconductor production so artificial intelligence uh food production uh global travel..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 2981.87, "end": 3045.64, "time_label": "49:41", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "so if you go to southeast asia vietnam and thailand have already ordered the government workers to work from home in order to save fuel you've pointed out that the gulf corporation has been a very successful market for..." } ] }, { "id": "gcc-glamour-was-pax-americana", "heading": "Dubai Was A Confidence Trick Backed By Empire", "time_range": "49:41-52:57", "summary": "Piers asks whether Iranian strikes on desalination, hotels, airports, and tourism targets are revealing an existential weakness in the GCC model. Jiang says yes: the glamour of Gulf modernity was built on imported basics and American guarantees.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "gcc-glamour-was-pax-americana-001", "text": "Piers gives Jiang one of his best set-ups by listing the structural weirdness of the Gulf monarchies: imported food, no natural water security, desalination dependence, expat demographics, and no independent security architecture. Jiang takes the invitation and makes Dubai his emblem. It sold itself as a new London or a new Hong Kong, but that glamour only worked inside global peace underwritten by America.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0058" ], "marks": [ { "text": "structural weirdness of the Gulf monarchies", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 2981.87, "end": 3045.64, "time_label": "49:41", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "so if you go to southeast asia vietnam and thailand have already ordered the government workers to work from home in order to save fuel you've pointed out that the gulf corporation has been a very successful market for..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "a new London or a new Hong Kong", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0058" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 3045.64, "end": 3114.41, "time_label": "50:45", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "deploying uh including the threats to desalination um but also targeting obviously targeted hotels and uh an airport and so on going to the heart of what the states there would like to see as the future of their economy..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 2981.87, "end": 3045.64, "time_label": "49:41", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "so if you go to southeast asia vietnam and thailand have already ordered the government workers to work from home in order to save fuel you've pointed out that the gulf corporation has been a very successful market for..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 3045.64, "end": 3114.41, "time_label": "50:45", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "deploying uh including the threats to desalination um but also targeting obviously targeted hotels and uh an airport and so on going to the heart of what the states there would like to see as the future of their economy..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "gcc-glamour-was-pax-americana-002", "text": "Once that aura breaks, Jiang says, it does not return. This is where the interview's scale changes again. The war is no longer described as one state attacking another or even Iran punishing the GCC. It is described as an attack on American empire itself because imperial invincibility is part of the asset being destroyed.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059" ], "marks": [ { "text": "once that aura breaks, it does not return", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 3114.41, "end": 3176.61, "time_label": "51:54", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "of america to project around the world and provide security guarantees uh to the gcc now this aura of inviability and invincibility of american empire has been shattered and once an illusion is shattered there's actuall..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "the war is directed at American empire itself", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 3114.41, "end": 3176.61, "time_label": "51:54", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "of america to project around the world and provide security guarantees uh to the gcc now this aura of inviability and invincibility of american empire has been shattered and once an illusion is shattered there's actuall..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 3114.41, "end": 3176.61, "time_label": "51:54", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "of america to project around the world and provide security guarantees uh to the gcc now this aura of inviability and invincibility of american empire has been shattered and once an illusion is shattered there's actuall..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 2981, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 2981.87, "end": 3045.64, "time_label": "49:41", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "so if you go to southeast asia vietnam and thailand have already ordered the government workers to work from home in order to save fuel you've pointed out that the gulf corporation has been a very successful market for..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 3045.64, "end": 3114.41, "time_label": "50:45", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "deploying uh including the threats to desalination um but also targeting obviously targeted hotels and uh an airport and so on going to the heart of what the states there would like to see as the future of their economy..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 3114.41, "end": 3176.61, "time_label": "51:54", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "of america to project around the world and provide security guarantees uh to the gcc now this aura of inviability and invincibility of american empire has been shattered and once an illusion is shattered there's actuall..." } ] }, { "id": "eschatology-under-cross-examination", "heading": "Speculation Under Cross-Examination", "time_range": "52:56-57:50", "summary": "Piers asks Jiang to explain the deeper power behind the war, then pushes back hard when Jiang answers with eschatological societies, Greater Israel, and an eventual AI surveillance order. Jiang answers by defending predictive modeling rather than documentary proof as his method.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0064" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "eschatology-under-cross-examination-001", "text": "The final stretch is the most controversial. Piers asks whether Israel is the real power center, and Jiang refuses the exact wording but replaces it with a wider claim about overlapping eschatological societies that want Middle East war to trigger a script: defeat of American empire, Greater Israel, an AI surveillance order he calls Pax Judaica, temple restoration, and messianic culmination. This is not presented as settled reporting. It is Jiang's speculative causal map for why events keep conforming to his forecasts.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061" ], "marks": [ { "text": "they have the script scripted out", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 3248.43, "end": 3304.97, "time_label": "54:08", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "This war in the Middle East will lead to the defeat of the American Empire, and this will lead to the culmination of the Greater Israel Project, where Israel is able to control the Middle East from the Nile to the Euphr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "Pax Judaica", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 3248.43, "end": 3304.97, "time_label": "54:08", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "This war in the Middle East will lead to the defeat of the American Empire, and this will lead to the culmination of the Greater Israel Project, where Israel is able to control the Middle East from the Nile to the Euphr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "segment_id": "seg-0060", "start": 3176.61, "end": 3248.21, "time_label": "52:56", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "that trump is not the most powerful person in america and you've inferred that actually the real power base is israel explain that right so actually don't say the real power base is um israel what i say is that the real..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 3248.43, "end": 3304.97, "time_label": "54:08", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "This war in the Middle East will lead to the defeat of the American Empire, and this will lead to the culmination of the Greater Israel Project, where Israel is able to control the Middle East from the Nile to the Euphr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "eschatology-under-cross-examination-002", "text": "Piers immediately states the obvious objection: many viewers will hear anti-Semitic fantasy or sheer baloney. Jiang's answer is methodological rather than evidentiary. He says he does speculative predictive modeling, not archival proof; he throws out theories, derives predictions, and tests them against reality. Because some predictions came true, he argues, the theory earns provisional legitimacy. The interview therefore ends not with closure but with a boundary line: predictive success, in Jiang's practice, is what licenses speculation.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0064" ], "marks": [ { "text": "speculative predictive modeling", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3304.99, "end": 3368.88, "time_label": "55:04", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "What do you say to that? Look, I completely sympathize with this argument. Five years ago, I would have said the same thing about this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "because some predictions came true", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3304.99, "end": 3368.88, "time_label": "55:04", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "What do you say to that? Look, I completely sympathize with this argument. Five years ago, I would have said the same thing about this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3369.66, "end": 3426.3, "time_label": "56:09", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Christian Zionists are heavily embedded in the national security apparatus and in the Pentagon. There's reporting that US commanders have told their troops that this is a war to bring back Jesus. And so I think that's i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3304.99, "end": 3368.88, "time_label": "55:04", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "What do you say to that? Look, I completely sympathize with this argument. Five years ago, I would have said the same thing about this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3369.66, "end": 3426.3, "time_label": "56:09", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Christian Zionists are heavily embedded in the national security apparatus and in the Pentagon. There's reporting that US commanders have told their troops that this is a war to bring back Jesus. And so I think that's i..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "segment_id": "seg-0064", "start": 3426.3, "end": 3469.51, "time_label": "57:06", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I think it's highly unlikely, unless any evidence emerges to the contrary, that they are current commanders in the United States military. But Professor Zhang, you have a big following. Lots of people are interested in..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 3176, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "segment_id": "seg-0060", "start": 3176.61, "end": 3248.21, "time_label": "52:56", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "that trump is not the most powerful person in america and you've inferred that actually the real power base is israel explain that right so actually don't say the real power base is um israel what i say is that the real..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 3248.43, "end": 3304.97, "time_label": "54:08", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "This war in the Middle East will lead to the defeat of the American Empire, and this will lead to the culmination of the Greater Israel Project, where Israel is able to control the Middle East from the Nile to the Euphr..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3304.99, "end": 3368.88, "time_label": "55:04", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "What do you say to that? Look, I completely sympathize with this argument. Five years ago, I would have said the same thing about this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3369.66, "end": 3426.3, "time_label": "56:09", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Christian Zionists are heavily embedded in the national security apparatus and in the Pentagon. There's reporting that US commanders have told their troops that this is a war to bring back Jesus. And so I think that's i..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "segment_id": "seg-0064", "start": 3426.3, "end": 3469.51, "time_label": "57:06", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I think it's highly unlikely, unless any evidence emerges to the contrary, that they are current commanders in the United States military. But Professor Zhang, you have a big following. Lots of people are interested in..." } ] } ], "questions": [ { "id": "q-iran-prevail", "question": "Are you confident that you'll be proven right that Iran ultimately will prevail in this war?", "asker": "Piers Morgan", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "answer": "Jiang says the war is already asymmetrical: the U.S. is degrading military capacity while Iran pressures the world economy through the GCC and Hormuz, and any U.S. ground commitment would trigger Vietnam-like sunk-cost entrapment.", "answer_refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Jiang says the war is already asymmetrical: the U.S. is degrading military capacity while Iran pressures the world economy through the GCC and Hormuz, and any U.S. ground commitment would trigger Vietnam-like sunk-cost entrapment.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2711.07, "end": 2775.04, "time_label": "45:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "right now doesn't have the manpower, the manufacturing capacity, and the political will to fight a long war of attrition on the ground in Iran. Right. So I think because of what you said at the end there, it's highly un..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "id": "q-if-no-ground-troops", "question": "If Trump doesn't commit ground troops, how do you see this war playing out?", "asker": "Piers Morgan", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "answer": "Jiang says even withdrawal is dire because exposed U.S. bases, pressured GCC economies, and a closed Hormuz push Gulf states toward alternative financial arrangements and weaken the petrodollar order that props up the U.S. economy.", "answer_refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2711.07, "end": 2775.04, "time_label": "45:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "right now doesn't have the manpower, the manufacturing capacity, and the political will to fight a long war of attrition on the ground in Iran. Right. So I think because of what you said at the end there, it's highly un..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Jiang says even withdrawal is dire because exposed U.S. bases, pressured GCC economies, and a closed Hormuz push Gulf states toward alternative financial arrangements and weaken the petrodollar order that props up the U.S. economy.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2711.07, "end": 2775.04, "time_label": "45:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "right now doesn't have the manpower, the manufacturing capacity, and the political will to fight a long war of attrition on the ground in Iran. Right. So I think because of what you said at the end there, it's highly un..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2775.26, "end": 2850.16, "time_label": "46:15", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Now, let's assume that Trump does withdraw from the Middle East. And what happens is that the G.C.C. nations of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, now are going to Iran because they supply the world with their oil..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 2850.16, "end": 2916.87, "time_label": "47:30", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": ". And this means that these young men could not afford their own offense anymore and this could lead to a revolution in the streets. So the consequences for America were dire if America were to retreat from the Middle E..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "id": "q-hormuz-consequences", "question": "If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed indefinitely, what would be the consequences for the global economy and how soon would we feel them?", "asker": "Piers Morgan", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055" ], "answer": "Jiang says the consequences are immediate and system-wide: food, fertilizer, semiconductors, AI infrastructure, travel, and oil all ride on cheap Gulf energy, so long closure forces de-industrialization and mercantilist adaptation.", "answer_refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 2850.16, "end": 2916.87, "time_label": "47:30", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": ". And this means that these young men could not afford their own offense anymore and this could lead to a revolution in the streets. So the consequences for America were dire if America were to retreat from the Middle E..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Jiang says the consequences are immediate and system-wide: food, fertilizer, semiconductors, AI infrastructure, travel, and oil all ride on cheap Gulf energy, so long closure forces de-industrialization and mercantilist adaptation.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 2850.16, "end": 2916.87, "time_label": "47:30", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": ". And this means that these young men could not afford their own offense anymore and this could lead to a revolution in the streets. So the consequences for America were dire if America were to retreat from the Middle E..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 2916.87, "end": 2981.87, "time_label": "48:36", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "remember food is produced by fertilizer which comes from the gcc as well as sulfuric acid which which is which helps the process of semiconductor production so artificial intelligence uh food production uh global travel..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 2981.87, "end": 3045.64, "time_label": "49:41", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "so if you go to southeast asia vietnam and thailand have already ordered the government workers to work from home in order to save fuel you've pointed out that the gulf corporation has been a very successful market for..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "id": "q-gcc-business-model", "question": "Are Iran's attacks on desalination, hotels, airports, and tourism now exposing an existential threat to the GCC business model?", "asker": "Piers Morgan", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0058" ], "answer": "Jiang says yes: cities like Dubai were glamorous only because Pax Americana made imported food, water insecurity, expat labor, and tourism feel stable, and that imperial aura has now been shattered.", "answer_refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 2981.87, "end": 3045.64, "time_label": "49:41", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "so if you go to southeast asia vietnam and thailand have already ordered the government workers to work from home in order to save fuel you've pointed out that the gulf corporation has been a very successful market for..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 3045.64, "end": 3114.41, "time_label": "50:45", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "deploying uh including the threats to desalination um but also targeting obviously targeted hotels and uh an airport and so on going to the heart of what the states there would like to see as the future of their economy..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Jiang says yes: cities like Dubai were glamorous only because Pax Americana made imported food, water insecurity, expat labor, and tourism feel stable, and that imperial aura has now been shattered.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 3045.64, "end": 3114.41, "time_label": "50:45", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "deploying uh including the threats to desalination um but also targeting obviously targeted hotels and uh an airport and so on going to the heart of what the states there would like to see as the future of their economy..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 3114.41, "end": 3176.61, "time_label": "51:54", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "of america to project around the world and provide security guarantees uh to the gcc now this aura of inviability and invincibility of american empire has been shattered and once an illusion is shattered there's actuall..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "id": "q-eschatology-objection", "question": "What do you say to people who hear this eschatological theory as fantastical baloney or anti-Semitic tropes?", "asker": "Piers Morgan", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062" ], "answer": "Jiang says he understands the objection and defends himself by method: he is doing speculative predictive modeling, not conventional historical proof, and he treats forecast accuracy as the test for whether a theory deserves provisional legitimacy.", "answer_refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 3248.43, "end": 3304.97, "time_label": "54:08", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "This war in the Middle East will lead to the defeat of the American Empire, and this will lead to the culmination of the Greater Israel Project, where Israel is able to control the Middle East from the Nile to the Euphr..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3304.99, "end": 3368.88, "time_label": "55:04", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "What do you say to that? Look, I completely sympathize with this argument. Five years ago, I would have said the same thing about this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Jiang says he understands the objection and defends himself by method: he is doing speculative predictive modeling, not conventional historical proof, and he treats forecast accuracy as the test for whether a theory deserves provisional legitimacy.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3304.99, "end": 3368.88, "time_label": "55:04", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "What do you say to that? Look, I completely sympathize with this argument. Five years ago, I would have said the same thing about this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3369.66, "end": 3426.3, "time_label": "56:09", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Christian Zionists are heavily embedded in the national security apparatus and in the Pentagon. There's reporting that US commanders have told their troops that this is a war to bring back Jesus. And so I think that's i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] } ], "source_notes": [ { "id": "source-note-mixed-upload", "text": "This YouTube upload is a mixed-format Piers Morgan episode. The first forty-four minutes are a multi-guest war panel and Kurdistan segment; Jiang's interview begins at 44:01. This read covers the Jiang portion because that is the Jiang-authored interpretive material in the source.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 2586, "end": 2640.22, "time_label": "43:06", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "said, there's been enough blood spilled, but it's taken us 20 years of relentless combat to get to today. And it's been a long time. The Middle East has suffered a lot. Yeah, it has. And it's actually very sad to see it..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "source-note-speculation-and-asr", "text": "The transcript is readable but has ASR noise in several names and terms, including GCC, Strait of Hormuz, and some eschatological groups. The read preserves Jiang's dated claims as his March 12, 2026 predictive interpretation and does not treat the speculative causal claims as independently verified reporting.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2775.26, "end": 2850.16, "time_label": "46:15", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Now, let's assume that Trump does withdraw from the Middle East. And what happens is that the G.C.C. nations of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, now are going to Iran because they supply the world with their oil..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "segment_id": "seg-0060", "start": 3176.61, "end": 3248.21, "time_label": "52:56", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "that trump is not the most powerful person in america and you've inferred that actually the real power base is israel explain that right so actually don't say the real power base is um israel what i say is that the real..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3304.99, "end": 3368.88, "time_label": "55:04", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "What do you say to that? Look, I completely sympathize with this argument. Five years ago, I would have said the same thing about this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ] }, "transcript": [ { "id": "seg-0001", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "start": 0.05, "end": 50.27, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "As the father of four daughters and hearing a missile hit a school, if it's true, everyone should apologize. Like, look, we can figure out who did it later. This is a result of our conflict. Are you confident that you'll be proven right, that Iran ultimately will prevail in this war? Once the United States sends in ground forces, there's no turning back. It's all in. There'll be another Vietnam. We're going to kill all the bad guys and we're going to replace them with the good guys. It's like a foreign policy, you know, made up by elementary school students. And it's embarrassing. Is Israel a more secure place? Is the United States stronger today than two weeks ago? Is the world a better place today than two weeks ago, for God's sake? I feel good about where we're going as a nation. We're killing all the right people and we're cutting your taxes. I haven't held the excitement that Senator Graham has.", "word_count": 165, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-001", "start": 0.05, "end": 3.49, "text": "As the father of four daughters and hearing a missile hit a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-002", "start": 3.49, "end": 6.21, "text": "school, if it's true, everyone should apologize.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-003", "start": 6.47, "end": 8.07, "text": "Like, look, we can figure out who did it later.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-004", "start": 8.13, "end": 9.67, "text": "This is a result of our conflict.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-005", "start": 9.87, "end": 11.79, "text": "Are you confident that you'll be proven right,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-006", "start": 11.87, "end": 14.49, "text": "that Iran ultimately will prevail in this war?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-007", "start": 14.71, "end": 16.41, "text": "Once the United States sends in ground forces,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-008", "start": 16.63, "end": 17.61, "text": "there's no turning back.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-009", "start": 18.19, "end": 19.23, "text": "It's all in.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-010", "start": 19.35, "end": 20.45, "text": "There'll be another Vietnam.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-011", "start": 21.01, "end": 23.07, "text": "We're going to kill all the bad guys and we're going to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-012", "start": 23.07, "end": 24.83, "text": "replace them with the good guys.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-013", "start": 24.97, "end": 26.29, "text": "It's like a foreign policy,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-014", "start": 26.45, "end": 29.29, "text": "you know, made up by elementary school students.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-015", "start": 29.29, "end": 30.23, "text": "And it's embarrassing.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-016", "start": 31.27, "end": 33.71, "text": "Is Israel a more secure place?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-017", "start": 33.87, "end": 37.09, "text": "Is the United States stronger today than two weeks ago?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-018", "start": 37.17, "end": 40.77, "text": "Is the world a better place today than two weeks ago,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-019", "start": 40.89, "end": 41.63, "text": "for God's sake?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-020", "start": 42.09, "end": 44.39, "text": "I feel good about where we're going as a nation.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-021", "start": 44.99, "end": 47.61, "text": "We're killing all the right people and we're cutting your taxes.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-022", "start": 47.77, "end": 48.69, "text": "I haven't held the", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-023", "start": 48.69, "end": 50.27, "text": "excitement that Senator Graham has.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "7c32c393f9052d6489a60ae944807cc4eba5e8db31076bc8e41bb581edb30ab4", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0001", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=0s", "time_label": "0:00", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0002", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "start": 50.35, "end": 95.56, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "He's never met a war that he doesn't love. And he just gets giddy, excited like a guy who's going to make a bunch of money when we bomb a bunch of people because that's what he does. President Bush. Bush famously landed on the USS Abraham Lincoln to declare mission accomplished in the Iraq war just weeks after the invasion began. As we all now know, that war lasted another eight years. Bush had won a second term and eventually retired by the time the last troops returned to the U.S. Few believe the mission was ever accomplished, and the whole war on terror became a cautionary tale about Middle Eastern quagmires and a cornerstone of the MAGA revulsion to war. Supporters of this war think it's time to move on from the ghosts of Iraq, and that it has no lessons for the current country. 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And that it's time to move on", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-018", "start": 92.4, "end": 92.4, "text": "from the ghosts of Iraq,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0002-chunk-019", "start": 92.4, "end": 95.56, "text": "a position summed up emphatically last night by President Trump.", "word_count": 10 } ], "text_sha256": "7b761a36c79c75ab82170a15139a1febe0a35bc484e8869e190a3e19122a4247", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0002", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=50s", "time_label": "0:50", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0003", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "start": 96.67, "end": 148.9, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "And as we take decisive action to stop the threat posed by the terrorist regime in Iran with Operation Epic Fury. Is that a great name? Well, it's only good if you win. You know, you can only do it. And we've won. Let me tell you, we've won. You know, you never like to say too early you won. We won. Well, if the war was won in the first hour, the substance of the victory is yet to become clear. The IDF says Israel is under Iranian fire as we speak. Cargo ships and oil containers are under attack across the region, sending oil prices into orbit again. The new Ayatollah has doubled down with a message of vengeance in his first public statement, albeit nobody's actually seen him yet, and there are claims he's incapacitated. Amid all of this, the fact is that victory for Iran is quite simple.", "word_count": 152, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-001", "start": 96.67, "end": 100.79, "text": "And as we take decisive action to stop the threat posed by", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-002", "start": 100.79, "end": 105.81, "text": "the terrorist regime in Iran with Operation Epic Fury.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-003", "start": 109.34, "end": 110.68, "text": "Is that a great name?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-004", "start": 112, "end": 113.54, "text": "Well, it's only good if you win.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-005", "start": 113.64, "end": 114.72, "text": "You know, you can only do it.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-006", "start": 114.8, "end": 115.8, "text": "And we've won.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-007", "start": 115.94, "end": 117.12, "text": "Let me tell you, we've won.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-008", "start": 117.93, "end": 120.31, "text": "You know, you never like to say too early you won.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-009", "start": 120.39, "end": 120.75, "text": "We won.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-010", "start": 122.92, "end": 124.76, "text": "Well, if the war was won in the first hour,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-011", "start": 124.82, "end": 126.82, "text": "the substance of the victory is yet to become clear.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-012", "start": 126.84, "end": 130.82, "text": "The IDF says Israel is under Iranian fire as we speak.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-013", "start": 131.04, "end": 134.16, "text": "Cargo ships and oil containers are under attack across the region,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-014", "start": 134.28, "end": 136.32, "text": "sending oil prices into orbit again.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-015", "start": 136.68, "end": 139.5, "text": "The new Ayatollah has doubled down with a message of vengeance in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-016", "start": 139.5, "end": 142.8, "text": "his first public statement, albeit nobody's actually seen him yet,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-017", "start": 142.9, "end": 144.72, "text": "and there are claims he's incapacitated.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-018", "start": 144.88, "end": 146.62, "text": "Amid all of this, the fact is", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0003-chunk-019", "start": 146.62, "end": 148.9, "text": "that victory for Iran is quite simple.", "word_count": 7 } ], "text_sha256": "50224f2e0df63a939870dcd2cf38d36c1a9ed9b0e0fc1dbb4e785209c9d53075", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0003", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=96s", "time_label": "1:36", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0004", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "start": 149, "end": 195.743, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "If the regime survives with its autonomy, Iran will claim victory. Victory for the United States and Israel is a lot more complicated. Many roads do seem to lead to a new Iran, which is a lot like the old Iran, but even more aggressive. It could be subdued, possibly for months or even years, but with a greater incentive than ever to arm itself and attack. That's why people are legitimately worried about a long and deadly conflict. And that's why people like Senator Lindsey Graham, who was threatened everywhere from Lebanon to Spain in the last week, are working overtime to sell the benefits of war. We're going to blow the hell out of these people. This regime is in a death trap. If we throw now, it is going to be on its knees. It's going to fall, and when it falls, we're going to have peace like no other time.", "word_count": 154, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-001", "start": 149, "end": 151.68, "text": "If the regime survives with its autonomy,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-002", "start": 152.04, "end": 153.46, "text": "Iran will claim victory.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-003", "start": 153.72, "end": 156.82, "text": "Victory for the United States and Israel is a lot more complicated.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-004", "start": 156.82, "end": 159.52, "text": "Many roads do seem to lead to a new Iran,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-005", "start": 159.6, "end": 160.84, "text": "which is a lot like the old Iran,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-006", "start": 161.02, "end": 162.2, "text": "but even more aggressive.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-007", "start": 162.42, "end": 165.12, "text": "It could be subdued, possibly for months or even years,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-008", "start": 165.32, "end": 168.72, "text": "but with a greater incentive than ever to arm itself and attack.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-009", "start": 169.06, "end": 173.02, "text": "That's why people are legitimately worried about a long and deadly conflict.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-010", "start": 173.46, "end": 175.6, "text": "And that's why people like Senator Lindsey Graham,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-011", "start": 175.88, "end": 178.94, "text": "who was threatened everywhere from Lebanon to Spain in the last week,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-012", "start": 179.02, "end": 181.58, "text": "are working overtime to sell the benefits of war.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-013", "start": 182.97, "end": 185.25, "text": "We're going to blow the hell out of these people.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-014", "start": 185.39, "end": 187.57, "text": "This regime is in a death trap.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-015", "start": 187.57, "end": 190.39, "text": "If we throw now, it is going to be on its knees.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-016", "start": 190.67, "end": 193.23, "text": "It's going to fall, and when it falls,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-017", "start": 193.39, "end": 195.39, "text": "we're going to have peace like no other", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0004-chunk-018", "start": 195.39, "end": 195.743, "text": "time.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "dc508c4e72ac99538f5102a49a684866f47b6976c53db3eac75c679237e0b389", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0004", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=149s", "time_label": "2:29", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0005", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "start": 195.743, "end": 250.58, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "We're going to have prosperity unlike anyone could ever imagine. Well, the problem with this kind of gleeful rhetoric about blowing the hell out of these people is that many of these people are innocent civilians. U.S. media is reporting today that U.S. military investigators believe American forces were responsible for the deadly strike on an Iranian primary school that's believed to have killed over 100 children. This is not like a tragic accident on an enormous scale. If President Trump and his administration want to build public support for this war, they should very quickly face up to it and apologize. And they should very quickly tell Lindsey Graham to respectively keep his mouth shut. Well, to debate this, I'm joined by Rob O 'Neill, the former U.S. Navy SEAL, by Gideon Levy, the Israeli author, journalist, and commentator at Haaretz, Republican Corey Mills, the Florida congressman and U.S. Army veteran, and Ryan Grim, Breaking Point's co -host and investigative journalist, with the Dropsite News.", "word_count": 170, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-001", "start": 195.743, "end": 199.27, "text": "We're going to have prosperity unlike anyone could ever imagine.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-002", "start": 201.66, "end": 204.48, "text": "Well, the problem with this kind of gleeful rhetoric about blowing the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-003", "start": 204.48, "end": 206.76, "text": "hell out of these people is that many of these people are", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-004", "start": 206.76, "end": 207.44, "text": "innocent civilians.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-005", "start": 208.04, "end": 208.4, "text": "U.S.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-006", "start": 208.42, "end": 209.9, "text": "media is reporting today that U.S.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-007", "start": 209.9, "end": 214.66, "text": "military investigators believe American forces were responsible for the deadly strike on", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-008", "start": 214.66, "end": 218.34, "text": "an Iranian primary school that's believed to have killed over 100 children.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-009", "start": 219.26, "end": 221.92, "text": "This is not like a tragic accident on an enormous scale.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-010", "start": 222.08, "end": 225.48, "text": "If President Trump and his administration want to build public support for", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-011", "start": 225.48, "end": 228.5, "text": "this war, they should very quickly face up to it and apologize.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-012", "start": 228.98, "end": 232.76, "text": "And they should very quickly tell Lindsey Graham to respectively keep his", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-013", "start": 232.76, "end": 233.36, "text": "mouth shut.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-014", "start": 233.64, "end": 236.02, "text": "Well, to debate this, I'm joined by Rob O 'Neill,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-015", "start": 236.1, "end": 236.68, "text": "the former U.S.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-016", "start": 236.68, "end": 238.4, "text": "Navy SEAL, by Gideon Levy,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-017", "start": 238.5, "end": 241.26, "text": "the Israeli author, journalist, and commentator at Haaretz,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-018", "start": 241.38, "end": 245.24, "text": "Republican Corey Mills, the Florida congressman and U.S.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-019", "start": 245.24, "end": 246.98, "text": "Army veteran, and Ryan Grim,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-020", "start": 247.06, "end": 249.06, "text": "Breaking Point's co -host and investigative journalist,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-021", "start": 249.26, "end": 250.58, "text": "with the Dropsite News.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "49fdbb5f4c2800db110deac552211d7985e99d65ecf3ff0aabdb4ca5cbe2135c", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0005", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=195s", "time_label": "3:15", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0006", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "start": 250.7, "end": 306.04, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "Well, welcome to all of you. Rob O 'Neill, welcome back again to Uncensored. Few people have had more experience of combat in the Middle East than you. And, of course, you killed Osama bin Laden. So I just want to ask you, from a pure military perspective, it seems to me that the American military might, coupled with the Israeli military might, has proved pretty overwhelming from a pure military perspective against Iran's military. But the way that Iran is conducting its tactical war in terms of going after economic damage may be much more difficult to defeat. Would that be your reading? It's going to be difficult to defeat that, yes. And thanks for having me back, Piers. Yeah, we're going to defeat them militarily, and we've proven that everywhere we go militarily. And that's just what we do. We've got a very strong group of men and women that can do that.", "word_count": 155, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-001", "start": 250.7, "end": 252.22, "text": "Well, welcome to all of you.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-002", "start": 252.3, "end": 255.16, "text": "Rob O 'Neill, welcome back again to Uncensored.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-003", "start": 255.54, "end": 260.04, "text": "Few people have had more experience of combat in the Middle East", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-004", "start": 260.04, "end": 260.46, "text": "than you.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-005", "start": 260.76, "end": 262.96, "text": "And, of course, you killed Osama bin Laden.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-006", "start": 264.06, "end": 265.3, "text": "So I just want to ask you,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-007", "start": 265.32, "end": 266.68, "text": "from a pure military perspective,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-008", "start": 267.38, "end": 270.82, "text": "it seems to me that the American military might,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-009", "start": 270.96, "end": 272.5, "text": "coupled with the Israeli military might,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-010", "start": 273.22, "end": 278.78, "text": "has proved pretty overwhelming from a pure military perspective against Iran's military.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-011", "start": 279.36, "end": 285.82, "text": "But the way that Iran is conducting its tactical war in terms", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-012", "start": 285.82, "end": 290.92, "text": "of going after economic damage may be much more difficult to defeat.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-013", "start": 291.1, "end": 292.02, "text": "Would that be your reading?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-014", "start": 293.64, "end": 295.72, "text": "It's going to be difficult to defeat that,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-015", "start": 295.76, "end": 296.76, "text": "yes. And thanks for having me back,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-016", "start": 296.9, "end": 300.32, "text": "Piers. Yeah, we're going to defeat them militarily,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-017", "start": 300.34, "end": 302.3, "text": "and we've proven that everywhere we go militarily.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-018", "start": 302.36, "end": 303.16, "text": "And that's just what we do.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-019", "start": 303.22, "end": 305.18, "text": "We've got a very strong group of men", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-020", "start": 305.18, "end": 306.04, "text": "and women that can do that.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "9519fd40be677c08412b885c256b79882772b27f2c43c3c6c165b5fa2d58dc6c", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0006", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=250s", "time_label": "4:10", "tags": [ "question", "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0007", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "start": 307.12, "end": 344.48, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "You know, I was there for the invasion. 2003, I remember the buildup. I remember I was excited at the time because it's just right after 9 -11, and as a young Navy SEAL, especially a SEAL Team 6, I want to invade anywhere. I haven't held the excitement that Senator Graham has. He's never met a war that he doesn't love, and he just gets giddy, excited like a guy who's going to make a bunch of money when we bomb a bunch of people because, well, that's what he does. And they get amped about that. But for me, it's like, yes, we can beat them, but what do we do next? I know Donald Trump doesn't want to go in there and try to do a regime change, but eventually— something has to happen. If boots on the ground means taking inspectors in with guys with guns, so be it. We", "word_count": 154, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-001", "start": 307.12, "end": 309.26, "text": "You know, I was there for the invasion.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-002", "start": 309.26, "end": 311.8, "text": "2003, I remember the buildup.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-003", "start": 311.86, "end": 314.8, "text": "I remember I was excited at the time because it's just right", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-004", "start": 314.8, "end": 317.58, "text": "after 9 -11, and as a young Navy SEAL,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-005", "start": 317.64, "end": 318.76, "text": "especially a SEAL Team 6,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-006", "start": 318.9, "end": 320.36, "text": "I want to invade anywhere.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-007", "start": 321.38, "end": 323.98, "text": "I haven't held the excitement that Senator Graham has.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-008", "start": 324.14, "end": 325.86, "text": "He's never met a war that he doesn't love,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-009", "start": 325.94, "end": 326.96, "text": "and he just gets giddy,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-010", "start": 327, "end": 329.16, "text": "excited like a guy who's going to make a bunch of money", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-011", "start": 329.16, "end": 330.36, "text": "when we bomb a bunch of people because,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-012", "start": 330.46, "end": 331.18, "text": "well, that's what he does.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-013", "start": 331.46, "end": 332.56, "text": "And they get amped about that.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-014", "start": 332.64, "end": 333.52, "text": "But for me, it's like,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-015", "start": 333.6, "end": 334.32, "text": "yes, we can beat them,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-016", "start": 334.36, "end": 335.1, "text": "but what do we do next?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-017", "start": 335.2, "end": 337, "text": "I know Donald Trump doesn't want to go in there and try", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-018", "start": 337, "end": 337.92, "text": "to do a regime change,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-019", "start": 338.02, "end": 340.14, "text": "but eventually— something has to happen.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-020", "start": 340.18, "end": 343.62, "text": "If boots on the ground means taking inspectors in with guys with", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-021", "start": 343.62, "end": 344.36, "text": "guns, so be it.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-022", "start": 344.42, "end": 344.48, "text": "We", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "8eae84d51a55950a72706e4fbf5dc90edfeaec42c8b3cbad641d33234e951a25", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0007", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=307s", "time_label": "5:07", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0008", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "start": 344.48, "end": 385.22, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "do have guys at the Tier 1 level with the designation to take out military sites and inspect them, maybe. But again, like your previous guest was saying, you get boots on the ground, that's what the— I hate the word quagmire, but I mean, if the shoe fits, right? We don't want to get back in that. The Iranian people, yeah, they wanted us, but so did parts of the Iraqi people. So does everybody. But eventually, regardless of your intentions, if you spend time there, you're an occupier. And people, even if they're on their side, the longer you bomb them, the less they're going to like you. And I think—I've never been hit with an American bomb, but I think the most terrifying thing possible is being in a building that's hit. The best thing that could happen is you die right away, but you'll probably just be under there, under rubble, burning for a long, long time, suffocating, maybe.", "word_count": 163, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-001", "start": 344.48, "end": 347.22, "text": "do have guys at the Tier 1 level with the designation to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-002", "start": 347.22, "end": 348.96, "text": "take out military sites and inspect them,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-003", "start": 348.98, "end": 351.4, "text": "maybe. But again, like your previous guest was saying,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-004", "start": 351.52, "end": 352.34, "text": "you get boots on the ground,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-005", "start": 352.4, "end": 354.24, "text": "that's what the— I hate the word quagmire,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-006", "start": 354.34, "end": 355.7, "text": "but I mean, if the shoe fits,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-007", "start": 355.82, "end": 357.46, "text": "right? We don't want to get back in that.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-008", "start": 357.54, "end": 359.16, "text": "The Iranian people, yeah, they wanted us,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-009", "start": 359.2, "end": 360.64, "text": "but so did parts of the Iraqi people.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-010", "start": 360.74, "end": 361.32, "text": "So does everybody.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-011", "start": 361.44, "end": 364.9, "text": "But eventually, regardless of your intentions,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-012", "start": 365.1, "end": 366.16, "text": "if you spend time there,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-013", "start": 366.2, "end": 367.02, "text": "you're an occupier.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-014", "start": 367.22, "end": 368.8, "text": "And people, even if they're on their side,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-015", "start": 368.8, "end": 370.12, "text": "the longer you bomb them,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-016", "start": 370.22, "end": 372.1, "text": "the less they're going to like you.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-017", "start": 372.22, "end": 375.5, "text": "And I think—I've never been hit with an American bomb,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-018", "start": 375.62, "end": 378.48, "text": "but I think the most terrifying thing possible is being in a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-019", "start": 378.48, "end": 379, "text": "building that's hit.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-020", "start": 379.24, "end": 381.16, "text": "The best thing that could happen is you die right away,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-021", "start": 381.28, "end": 382.72, "text": "but you'll probably just be under there,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-022", "start": 382.78, "end": 384.12, "text": "under rubble, burning for a long,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-023", "start": 384.18, "end": 384.28, "text": "long", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-024", "start": 384.28, "end": 385.22, "text": "time, suffocating, maybe.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "9761c2377b9ae1244fad4c1101ab101c2ea9702f1efe0a2f01f7a50a94ec8297", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0008", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=344s", "time_label": "5:44", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0009", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "start": 385.3, "end": 430.98, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "Horrible stuff. This is not something to cheer. This is—war is the—should be the very end of a political means. I've been to war a lot. I'm not pro -war. I think there should be other ways to do it. I'm watching cautiously. And I'm hoping— you know, I don't ever consider myself the smartest man in the room. I'm hoping the smartest man in the room, or men and women, do show up. I'm willing to listen. I'm willing to learn. And what we've done in the past has worked, and it hasn't worked. So it doesn't matter why we're here. We just are. So hopefully level heads can prevail, right? And, Rob, how do you feel, given all your experience, how do you feel about some of the more inflammatory rhetoric that we're hearing from people, like Pete Hegseth in particular, coupled with the way that the official White House said, his social media accounts", "word_count": 157, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-001", "start": 385.3, "end": 385.8, "text": "Horrible stuff.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-002", "start": 386.26, "end": 388.16, "text": "This is not something to cheer.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-003", "start": 388.36, "end": 391.96, "text": "This is—war is the—should be the very end of a political means.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-004", "start": 392.74, "end": 393.76, "text": "I've been to war a lot.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-005", "start": 393.84, "end": 394.68, "text": "I'm not pro -war.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-006", "start": 394.84, "end": 396.18, "text": "I think there should be other ways to do it.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-007", "start": 396.22, "end": 397.2, "text": "I'm watching cautiously.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-008", "start": 397.32, "end": 399.28, "text": "And I'm hoping— you know,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-009", "start": 399.32, "end": 401.68, "text": "I don't ever consider myself the smartest man in the room.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-010", "start": 401.76, "end": 403.2, "text": "I'm hoping the smartest man in the room,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-011", "start": 403.24, "end": 404.38, "text": "or men and women, do show up.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-012", "start": 404.42, "end": 405.3, "text": "I'm willing to listen.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-013", "start": 405.38, "end": 406.02, "text": "I'm willing to learn.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-014", "start": 406.12, "end": 408.14, "text": "And what we've done in the past has worked,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-015", "start": 408.16, "end": 408.82, "text": "and it hasn't worked.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-016", "start": 408.9, "end": 410.7, "text": "So it doesn't matter why we're here.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-017", "start": 410.78, "end": 411.26, "text": "We just are.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-018", "start": 411.36, "end": 413.06, "text": "So hopefully level heads can prevail,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-019", "start": 413.22, "end": 416.56, "text": "right? And, Rob, how do you feel,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-020", "start": 416.62, "end": 420.5, "text": "given all your experience, how do you feel about some of the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-021", "start": 420.5, "end": 423.6, "text": "more inflammatory rhetoric that we're hearing from people,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-022", "start": 423.68, "end": 425.4, "text": "like Pete Hegseth in particular,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-023", "start": 426.22, "end": 429.58, "text": "coupled with the way that the official White House said,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-024", "start": 429.6, "end": 430.98, "text": "his social media accounts", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "6228da5e7111c61a267071908e2e907cfbfb3f01906adc6eb2e42017b7d896aa", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0009", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=385s", "time_label": "6:25", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0010", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "start": 430.98, "end": 478.86, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "are pumping out kind of movie -style promos about this war, almost like this is not real. This is like a movie we're watching. I've got to say, as someone who's had a lot of family myself who've gone to combat in war, I don't like it. It's not how most military people talk about it. I despise it. I don't like it. War is a lot different than what a lot of the public sees in video games and TV shows. You do not respond—respond, excuse me— and when bullets fly this way, there's a moment of pause, because they only need to be right once. And when something blows up, if you die, you're just dead. I mean, you do need propaganda to build up morale, but movie stuff like that, I don't like it. However, now, with Pete Hegseth, I was advocating for a mid -grade officer with combat experience to take the Pentagon, and he did.", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-001", "start": 430.98, "end": 435.96, "text": "are pumping out kind of movie -style promos about this war,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-002", "start": 436.14, "end": 437.88, "text": "almost like this is not real.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-003", "start": 438.02, "end": 439.42, "text": "This is like a movie we're watching.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-004", "start": 439.58, "end": 441.84, "text": "I've got to say, as someone who's had a lot of family", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-005", "start": 441.84, "end": 444.42, "text": "myself who've gone to combat in war,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-006", "start": 444.68, "end": 445.72, "text": "I don't like it.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-007", "start": 445.86, "end": 449.3, "text": "It's not how most military people talk about it.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-008", "start": 450.02, "end": 450.82, "text": "I despise it.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-009", "start": 450.82, "end": 451.4, "text": "I don't like it.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-010", "start": 451.44, "end": 454.02, "text": "War is a lot different than what a lot of the public", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-011", "start": 454.02, "end": 456.78, "text": "sees in video games and TV shows.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-012", "start": 456.9, "end": 461.14, "text": "You do not respond—respond, excuse me— and when bullets fly this way,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-013", "start": 461.28, "end": 462.46, "text": "there's a moment of pause,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-014", "start": 462.58, "end": 463.68, "text": "because they only need to be right once.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-015", "start": 463.74, "end": 464.5, "text": "And when something blows up,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-016", "start": 464.5, "end": 465.52, "text": "if you die, you're just dead.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-017", "start": 466.8, "end": 469.38, "text": "I mean, you do need propaganda to build up morale,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-018", "start": 469.58, "end": 470.94, "text": "but movie stuff like that,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-019", "start": 471.04, "end": 472.04, "text": "I don't like it.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-020", "start": 472.9, "end": 474.3, "text": "However, now, with Pete Hegseth,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-021", "start": 474.46, "end": 477.72, "text": "I was advocating for a mid -grade officer with combat experience to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-022", "start": 477.72, "end": 478.86, "text": "take the Pentagon, and he did.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "dd57a7eb4a3d02b3efb1564aebc484857c2764d125a6c4673c0eddba492f09ac", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0010", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=430s", "time_label": "7:10", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0011", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "start": 479.54, "end": 526.73, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "And I'm all in with Pete Hegseth. This is what we needed. I like the way he does it. I like the way he works out with the troops and has a morale high. The media doesn't like him. I mean, most of the media, that says he's doing a good job generally, because let's be honest, they don't want him to succeed. I like what he's doing. I don't like a lot of the rhetoric, but some of it has to happen. Some of it doesn't have to happen. But, you know, you've got to stay the course, mission, frontside focus, and after you hit him, if possible, get out. Okay. Let's go to Congressman Mills. First of all, I want to talk about this attack on the girls' school, which now looks increasingly likely, according to The New York Times and other reports, that this was an American missile strike that had gone wrong. Some suggestion that there was intelligence from the Israelis, which turned out to be false.", "word_count": 171, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-001", "start": 479.54, "end": 481.04, "text": "And I'm all in with Pete Hegseth.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-002", "start": 481.14, "end": 481.86, "text": "This is what we needed.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-003", "start": 482, "end": 483.2, "text": "I like the way he does it.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-004", "start": 483.24, "end": 484.72, "text": "I like the way he works out with the troops and has", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-005", "start": 484.72, "end": 485.3, "text": "a morale high.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-006", "start": 485.48, "end": 486.7, "text": "The media doesn't like him.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-007", "start": 486.94, "end": 488.42, "text": "I mean, most of the media,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-008", "start": 488.42, "end": 490.88, "text": "that says he's doing a good job generally,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-009", "start": 490.98, "end": 493.08, "text": "because let's be honest, they don't want him to succeed.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-010", "start": 493.26, "end": 494.26, "text": "I like what he's doing.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-011", "start": 494.32, "end": 495.5, "text": "I don't like a lot of the rhetoric,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-012", "start": 495.58, "end": 497.02, "text": "but some of it has to happen.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-013", "start": 497.08, "end": 498.28, "text": "Some of it doesn't have to happen.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-014", "start": 498.44, "end": 500.32, "text": "But, you know, you've got to stay the course,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-015", "start": 501.74, "end": 504.08, "text": "mission, frontside focus, and after you hit him,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-016", "start": 504.12, "end": 505.22, "text": "if possible, get out.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-017", "start": 507.03, "end": 509.91, "text": "Okay. Let's go to Congressman Mills.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-018", "start": 510.85, "end": 513.77, "text": "First of all, I want to talk about this attack on the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-019", "start": 513.77, "end": 516.67, "text": "girls' school, which now looks increasingly likely,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-020", "start": 516.81, "end": 518.83, "text": "according to The New York Times and other reports,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-021", "start": 518.83, "end": 521.81, "text": "that this was an American missile strike that had gone wrong.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-022", "start": 521.95, "end": 523.27, "text": "Some suggestion that there", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-023", "start": 523.27, "end": 525.59, "text": "was intelligence from the Israelis,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-024", "start": 525.73, "end": 526.73, "text": "which turned out to be false.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "c57df60e04644fcb0ca14bbdd2c725eb1fe5099c943916e487c08fc8d164d0f5", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0011", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=479s", "time_label": "7:59", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0012", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "start": 526.83, "end": 567.22, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "It was, of course, next to a Revolutionary Guard base and used to be part of the base and then was moved, and it may be this was just a horrific accident, but it had enormous consequences. Would it not be the right thing, the morally right thing, if it was the United States? And they must know by now if it was one of their planes or one of their missiles. They must know that if it was the United States, they'd just hold their hands up and say, we made a terrible mistake and we're terribly sorry. Well, I think the biggest thing, and thanks for having me on, Piers, it's great to be on this panel. Rob, I've got a tremendous amount of respect for. He's a true decorated hero and I'm grateful to be on this panel. But, you know, I want to say that", "word_count": 149, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-001", "start": 526.83, "end": 531.15, "text": "It was, of course, next to a Revolutionary Guard base and used", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-002", "start": 531.15, "end": 532.71, "text": "to be part of the base and then was moved,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-003", "start": 532.83, "end": 535.45, "text": "and it may be this was just a horrific accident,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-004", "start": 535.57, "end": 537.55, "text": "but it had enormous consequences.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-005", "start": 538.55, "end": 540.83, "text": "Would it not be the right thing,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-006", "start": 540.93, "end": 544.21, "text": "the morally right thing, if it was the United States?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-007", "start": 544.29, "end": 546.37, "text": "And they must know by now if it was one of their", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-008", "start": 546.37, "end": 547.95, "text": "planes or one of their missiles.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-009", "start": 548.83, "end": 549.99, "text": "They must know that if it was the United States,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-010", "start": 550.13, "end": 551.79, "text": "they'd just hold their hands up and say,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-011", "start": 552.23, "end": 554.87, "text": "we made a terrible mistake and we're terribly sorry.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-012", "start": 556.3, "end": 557.46, "text": "Well, I think the biggest thing,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-013", "start": 557.52, "end": 558.24, "text": "and thanks for having me on,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-014", "start": 558.3, "end": 559.82, "text": "Piers, it's great to be on this panel.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-015", "start": 559.88, "end": 561.88, "text": "Rob, I've got a tremendous amount of respect for.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-016", "start": 562.02, "end": 565.16, "text": "He's a true decorated hero and I'm grateful to be on this", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-017", "start": 565.16, "end": 567.22, "text": "panel. But, you know, I want to say that", "word_count": 9 } ], "text_sha256": "812252e4e64de649ad790e05a36ebfb68d12d04d253e532362522a9669f8fea7", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0012", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=526s", "time_label": "8:46", "tags": [ "question", "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0013", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "start": 567.22, "end": 605.82, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "one of the things you don't do, whether it's in politics or the military, is get out ahead of intel. You know, we want to make sure that we get the actual post -blast analysis. We want to look at what the actual trajectory of whatever that Tomahawk or whatever that missile was to ensure that we know what the impact radius was, where it actually was intended to hit, what that target actually was or was not. And then if we do determine that it is something that is a U.S. strike or a U.S. missile or whatever the case may be, then we look at what was the actual cautionary reasons of why it occurred. So, you know, until I get into the actual skiff and get an intel brief on this, you know, I sit on the Armed Services Committee, I sit on the Subcommittee of Military Personnel on Military Readiness and the Intelligence Special Operations.", "word_count": 161, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-001", "start": 567.22, "end": 568.32, "text": "one of the things you don't do,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-002", "start": 568.38, "end": 569.68, "text": "whether it's in politics or the military,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-003", "start": 569.82, "end": 570.68, "text": "is get out ahead of intel.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-004", "start": 571.04, "end": 572.94, "text": "You know, we want to make sure that we get the actual", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-005", "start": 572.94, "end": 573.78, "text": "post -blast analysis.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-006", "start": 574.06, "end": 576.54, "text": "We want to look at what the actual trajectory of whatever that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-007", "start": 576.54, "end": 579.56, "text": "Tomahawk or whatever that missile was to ensure that we know what", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-008", "start": 579.56, "end": 582.32, "text": "the impact radius was, where it actually was intended to hit,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-009", "start": 582.42, "end": 584.12, "text": "what that target actually was or was not.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-010", "start": 584.78, "end": 587.74, "text": "And then if we do determine that it is something that is", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-011", "start": 587.74, "end": 589.08, "text": "a U.S.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-012", "start": 589.8, "end": 590.94, "text": "strike or a U.S.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-013", "start": 590.94, "end": 592.34, "text": "missile or whatever the case may be,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-014", "start": 592.52, "end": 595.54, "text": "then we look at what was the actual cautionary reasons of why", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-015", "start": 595.54, "end": 595.94, "text": "it occurred.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-016", "start": 596.2, "end": 598.94, "text": "So, you know, until I get into the actual skiff and get", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-017", "start": 598.94, "end": 599.92, "text": "an intel brief on this,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-018", "start": 600.06, "end": 601.46, "text": "you know, I sit on the Armed Services Committee,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-019", "start": 601.6, "end": 604.64, "text": "I sit on the Subcommittee of Military Personnel on Military Readiness and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-020", "start": 604.64, "end": 605.48, "text": "the Intelligence Special", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-021", "start": 605.48, "end": 605.82, "text": "Operations.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "ac236b45b8ec1f4ca840d2cd62d33c6262d00bcd64e57307b8555d448b5448eb", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0013", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=567s", "time_label": "9:27", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0014", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "start": 605.82, "end": 658.23, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "I'm the Subcommittee Chair of the Oversight and Intelligence and Foreign Affairs Committee. So until I can actually get in there, I'm not going to get over my skis and start making comments, but I can tell you that if and, you know, when this is determined, if the United States is responsible in any way, it will take its accountability. It will do its operational review. We did this in Iraq. We did this in Afghanistan in every conflict. And as Rob and others will tell you, in any operation, no matter how great it is, you always do an AAR to determine how we can get better. And in terms of the mission itself, we've heard now myriad different explanations for what the mission is and what victory looks like. What is your understanding of what victory looks like? Because as I said to Rob, there's no doubt that in terms of military firepower, the United States and Israeli combined firepower is clearly causing enormous damage to Iran's military.", "word_count": 171, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-001", "start": 605.82, "end": 609.56, "text": "I'm the Subcommittee Chair of the Oversight and Intelligence and Foreign", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-002", "start": 609.56, "end": 610.3, "text": "Affairs Committee.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-003", "start": 610.68, "end": 612.42, "text": "So until I can actually get in there,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-004", "start": 612.48, "end": 614.6, "text": "I'm not going to get over my skis and start making comments,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-005", "start": 614.76, "end": 616.4, "text": "but I can tell you that if and,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-006", "start": 616.52, "end": 617.86, "text": "you know, when this is determined,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-007", "start": 618, "end": 620.24, "text": "if the United States is responsible in any way,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-008", "start": 620.6, "end": 621.44, "text": "it will take its accountability.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-009", "start": 621.76, "end": 622.88, "text": "It will do its operational review.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-010", "start": 623.08, "end": 623.92, "text": "We did this in Iraq.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-011", "start": 624.04, "end": 625.58, "text": "We did this in Afghanistan in every conflict.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-012", "start": 625.82, "end": 627.6, "text": "And as Rob and others will tell you,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-013", "start": 627.6, "end": 629.54, "text": "in any operation, no matter how great it is,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-014", "start": 629.6, "end": 632.08, "text": "you always do an AAR to determine how we can get better.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-015", "start": 633.87, "end": 635.73, "text": "And in terms of the mission itself,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-016", "start": 636.03, "end": 641.57, "text": "we've heard now myriad different explanations for what the mission is and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-017", "start": 641.57, "end": 643.35, "text": "what victory looks like.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-018", "start": 643.41, "end": 646.63, "text": "What is your understanding of what victory looks like?", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-019", "start": 646.73, "end": 647.97, "text": "Because as I said to Rob,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-020", "start": 648.17, "end": 651.03, "text": "there's no doubt that in terms of military firepower,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-021", "start": 651.75, "end": 652.51, "text": "the United States", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-022", "start": 652.51, "end": 658.23, "text": "and Israeli combined firepower is clearly causing enormous damage to Iran's military.", "word_count": 12 } ], "text_sha256": "c3a6ade3257a148ed7db5abee22e5cf15284c7523c4e5ca3631a5a076c67a4c6", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0014", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=605s", "time_label": "10:05", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0015", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "start": 658.53, "end": 707.46, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "But it's also true that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, pretty well completely closed, if that goes on for much longer, the enormous damage that is causing to the global economy coupled with the attacks they've been making on all the neighboring Gulf states, trying to clearly intimidate tourists from going there, which is the new business model for many of those states. You know, this could be incredibly damaging and makes the word victory look a little bit more complex. Well, war is always complex, especially when you talk about geopolitical analytics. I mean, look at the fact that China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, this axis of evil, have been geopolitically aligned for a while. Their goal from the very beginning, whether you talk about the Belt and Road Initiative, whether you talk about the funding of Iranian proxy militias, was always to eliminate the U.S.", "word_count": 151, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-001", "start": 658.53, "end": 661.97, "text": "But it's also true that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-002", "start": 662.05, "end": 665.47, "text": "pretty well completely closed, if that goes on for much longer,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-003", "start": 665.61, "end": 671.75, "text": "the enormous damage that is causing to the global economy coupled with", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-004", "start": 671.75, "end": 675.33, "text": "the attacks they've been making on all the neighboring Gulf states,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-005", "start": 675.51, "end": 679.11, "text": "trying to clearly intimidate tourists from going there,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-006", "start": 679.23, "end": 681.65, "text": "which is the new business model for many of those states.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-007", "start": 681.85, "end": 686.55, "text": "You know, this could be incredibly damaging and makes the word victory", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-008", "start": 686.55, "end": 687.95, "text": "look a little bit more complex.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-009", "start": 689.12, "end": 690.74, "text": "Well, war is always complex,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-010", "start": 690.92, "end": 693.06, "text": "especially when you talk about geopolitical analytics.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-011", "start": 693.26, "end": 694.8, "text": "I mean, look at the fact that China,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-012", "start": 694.8, "end": 696.24, "text": "Russia, Iran and North Korea,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-013", "start": 696.3, "end": 699.26, "text": "this axis of evil, have been geopolitically aligned for a while.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-014", "start": 699.26, "end": 700.54, "text": "Their goal from the very beginning,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-015", "start": 700.7, "end": 702.36, "text": "whether you talk about the Belt and Road Initiative,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-016", "start": 702.6, "end": 705.64, "text": "whether you talk about the funding of Iranian proxy militias,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-017", "start": 705.72, "end": 706.88, "text": "was always to eliminate", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-018", "start": 706.88, "end": 707.46, "text": "the U.S.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "63ec7fd984bada580a140216c758bab7fc09ce9c28f528047fec5f77c4ef6dbc", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0015", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=658s", "time_label": "10:58", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0016", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "start": 707.46, "end": 749.53, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "dollar as a global currency. Not to mention the fact that China had a lot at stake on this. What they wanted to do with the Belt and Road Initiative was have Russia start the war in Ukraine to expand the Eurasian border, take over Oceania, take the 15 of 16 rare earth mineral mines of Africa, which now cuts off the Horn of Africa, Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Black Sea. This is now an actual isolation move, while in the Western Hemisphere, utilizing economic coercion on Panama and Honduras to control tax tariffs and transit to guarantee that while they're buying up our farmlands, while they're buying up insular installations, as people in the Navy will tell you, how long can a nuclear submarine stay underwater? Until it runs out of food. That was the intent from the beginning, was always economic warfare by China. We've been in war with China and Russia for 20 plus years.", "word_count": 158, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-001", "start": 707.46, "end": 708.5, "text": "dollar as a global currency.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-002", "start": 708.72, "end": 711.26, "text": "Not to mention the fact that China had a lot at stake", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-003", "start": 711.26, "end": 711.6, "text": "on this.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-004", "start": 711.68, "end": 714.04, "text": "What they wanted to do with the Belt and Road Initiative was", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-005", "start": 714.04, "end": 716.74, "text": "have Russia start the war in Ukraine to expand the Eurasian border,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-006", "start": 716.92, "end": 720.48, "text": "take over Oceania, take the 15 of 16 rare earth mineral mines", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-007", "start": 720.48, "end": 722.62, "text": "of Africa, which now cuts off the Horn of Africa,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-008", "start": 722.78, "end": 724.24, "text": "Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Black Sea.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-009", "start": 724.38, "end": 726.52, "text": "This is now an actual isolation move,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-010", "start": 726.62, "end": 728.5, "text": "while in the Western Hemisphere,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-011", "start": 728.5, "end": 732.98, "text": "utilizing economic coercion on Panama and Honduras to control tax tariffs and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-012", "start": 732.98, "end": 736.12, "text": "transit to guarantee that while they're buying up our farmlands,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-013", "start": 736.22, "end": 737.5, "text": "while they're buying up insular installations,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-014", "start": 737.9, "end": 739.72, "text": "as people in the Navy will tell you,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-015", "start": 739.76, "end": 741.42, "text": "how long can a nuclear submarine stay underwater?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-016", "start": 741.88, "end": 743.1, "text": "Until it runs out of food.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-017", "start": 743.32, "end": 744.64, "text": "That was the intent from the beginning,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-018", "start": 744.74, "end": 746.7, "text": "was always economic warfare by China.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-019", "start": 746.8, "end": 749.26, "text": "We've been in war with China and Russia for 20 plus", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-020", "start": 749.26, "end": 749.53, "text": "years.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "2410911041a03404e26e22d65431be909853e9aea1b791cf1d2552a9e07dba76", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0016", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=707s", "time_label": "11:47", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0017", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "start": 749.53, "end": 800, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "It's just that we kept calling them a great superpower resurgence. When it comes to the designation of this conflict or this hostility, let's go back to the 2011 OECD Obama days where Libya was actually utilizing the Department of Justice's UN regulations to quantify it as being able to go in and do these things if it was in the needs of saving innocent civilians. Well, I can tell you, 40,000 plus innocent Iranians were dying in the streets. There was human rights atrocities like never before. We also had imminent threat with regards to knowing that the Esfahan, the Fordham and the Natanz facilities, they were destroyed, but at what levels are we guaranteeing this? We knew they had the Shaheed 136s, which are a very effective drone that's being utilized today that we now have our own Lucas system, which is about a $35,000 program for Operation Scorpion Strike. But it was all about eliminating the IRGC's capabilities of imminent strike with the ICBMs.", "word_count": 169, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-001", "start": 749.53, "end": 752.5, "text": "It's just that we kept calling them a great superpower resurgence.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-002", "start": 752.74, "end": 756.22, "text": "When it comes to the designation of this conflict or this hostility,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-003", "start": 756.42, "end": 759.62, "text": "let's go back to the 2011 OECD Obama days where Libya was", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-004", "start": 759.62, "end": 764.24, "text": "actually utilizing the Department of Justice's UN regulations to quantify it as", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-005", "start": 764.24, "end": 766.56, "text": "being able to go in and do these things if it was", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-006", "start": 766.56, "end": 768.38, "text": "in the needs of saving innocent civilians.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-007", "start": 768.56, "end": 769.22, "text": "Well, I can tell you,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-008", "start": 769.28, "end": 772.48, "text": "40,000 plus innocent Iranians were dying in the streets.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-009", "start": 772.6, "end": 774.5, "text": "There was human rights atrocities like never before.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-010", "start": 774.76, "end": 777.94, "text": "We also had imminent threat with regards to knowing that the Esfahan,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-011", "start": 778.16, "end": 779.9, "text": "the Fordham and the Natanz facilities,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-012", "start": 780.18, "end": 783.8, "text": "they were destroyed, but at what levels are we guaranteeing this?", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-013", "start": 783.94, "end": 786.12, "text": "We knew they had the Shaheed 136s,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-014", "start": 786.14, "end": 789.34, "text": "which are a very effective drone that's being utilized today that we", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-015", "start": 789.34, "end": 790.78, "text": "now have our own Lucas system,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-016", "start": 790.84, "end": 793.86, "text": "which is about a $35,000 program for Operation Scorpion Strike.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-017", "start": 794.14, "end": 795.32, "text": "But it was all about", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-018", "start": 795.32, "end": 800, "text": "eliminating the IRGC's capabilities of imminent strike with the ICBMs.", "word_count": 10 } ], "text_sha256": "912aa8f2c996a1ec005b07a4e17b9828b2bcc79e9fa0bfac2a4c0cba7da44e59", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0017", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=749s", "time_label": "12:29", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0018", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "start": 800.02, "end": 844.36, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "And guess what else we found out? We found out they had working hypersonic ballistic missiles. These are ballistic missiles that traveled over 15,000 plus miles per hour and have the ability to hit mock levels that we can't actually be 100 % effective on. So there's a lot of things that came into this. One, it was guaranteeing that innocent civilians weren't continuing to be killed. Two, stopping imminent threat of actual nuclear capabilities, because we know that under the JCPOA, under Resolution 2231, that both Ban Ki -moon and Gutierrez, who are the General Secretary of the UN, said that Iran was in direct violation sending mid -range, long -range ballistic missiles to the Houthis and others and enriching well past the 70 % mark. Now, I want to be clear. 70 % is over the threshold, but to get from 70 to nuclear grade, it's a flip of the switch.", "word_count": 154, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-001", "start": 800.02, "end": 801.1, "text": "And guess what else we found out?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-002", "start": 801.22, "end": 803.76, "text": "We found out they had working hypersonic ballistic missiles.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-003", "start": 803.92, "end": 807.14, "text": "These are ballistic missiles that traveled over 15,000 plus miles per", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-004", "start": 807.14, "end": 809.98, "text": "hour and have the ability to hit mock levels that we can't", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-005", "start": 809.98, "end": 812.14, "text": "actually be 100 % effective on.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-006", "start": 812.32, "end": 814.62, "text": "So there's a lot of things that came into this.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-007", "start": 814.7, "end": 817.94, "text": "One, it was guaranteeing that innocent civilians weren't continuing to be killed.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-008", "start": 817.94, "end": 820.8, "text": "Two, stopping imminent threat of actual nuclear capabilities,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-009", "start": 821, "end": 823.42, "text": "because we know that under the JCPOA,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-010", "start": 823.62, "end": 828.36, "text": "under Resolution 2231, that both Ban Ki -moon and Gutierrez,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-011", "start": 828.44, "end": 829.44, "text": "who are the General Secretary of the UN,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-012", "start": 829.48, "end": 833.86, "text": "said that Iran was in direct violation sending mid -range,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-013", "start": 833.94, "end": 836.76, "text": "long -range ballistic missiles to the Houthis and others and enriching well", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-014", "start": 836.76, "end": 837.96, "text": "past the 70 % mark.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-015", "start": 838.1, "end": 839.3, "text": "Now, I want to be clear.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-016", "start": 839.76, "end": 841.68, "text": "70 % is over the threshold,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-017", "start": 841.82, "end": 843.34, "text": "but to get from 70 to nuclear grade,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-018", "start": 843.42, "end": 843.62, "text": "it's a", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-019", "start": 843.62, "end": 844.36, "text": "flip of the switch.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "b49b1bfa4cce6279f4b31352ffafcabd5650647024e1d73f5602b5b33e2ffd40", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0018", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=800s", "time_label": "13:20", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0019", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "start": 844.52, "end": 886.88, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "That's how easy it actually is. So denigrate the IRGC, eliminate the head of the snake, which is the Ayatollah, which we know there's multiple heads. Rob and I can tell you that you eliminate one terrorist organization, let's say it's Qasem Soleimani, you get Ismail Ghani, you eliminate one terrorist, they get another. But my point is that we are moving in the right direction of military coordinated strikes, guaranteeing that imminent threats are gone, guaranteeing that regional securities are provided, then usher in someone like Reza Pahlavi, who can actually be a transitional governor who doesn't want to stay in power. He wants to be voted at the ballot box. And now we actually have a transitional plan. This is not Iraq. This is not Afghanistan. Okay. I want to bring in the other panelists. I don't want to cut you off, Congressman. I do want to bring in the others. It's very complex.", "word_count": 156, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-001", "start": 844.52, "end": 846.1, "text": "That's how easy it actually is.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-002", "start": 846.1, "end": 849.96, "text": "So denigrate the IRGC, eliminate the head of the snake,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-003", "start": 850.04, "end": 851.94, "text": "which is the Ayatollah, which we know there's multiple heads.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-004", "start": 852.12, "end": 854.88, "text": "Rob and I can tell you that you eliminate one terrorist organization,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-005", "start": 855.12, "end": 856.1, "text": "let's say it's Qasem Soleimani,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-006", "start": 856.22, "end": 859.16, "text": "you get Ismail Ghani, you eliminate one terrorist,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-007", "start": 859.24, "end": 859.78, "text": "they get another.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-008", "start": 859.9, "end": 862.2, "text": "But my point is that we are moving in the right direction", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-009", "start": 862.2, "end": 866.16, "text": "of military coordinated strikes, guaranteeing that imminent threats are gone,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-010", "start": 866.3, "end": 868.5, "text": "guaranteeing that regional securities are provided,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-011", "start": 868.68, "end": 870.98, "text": "then usher in someone like Reza Pahlavi,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-012", "start": 871.2, "end": 874.6, "text": "who can actually be a transitional governor who doesn't want to stay", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-013", "start": 874.6, "end": 874.88, "text": "in power.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-014", "start": 874.88, "end": 876.58, "text": "He wants to be voted at the ballot box.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-015", "start": 876.96, "end": 878.44, "text": "And now we actually have a transitional plan.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-016", "start": 878.5, "end": 879.22, "text": "This is not Iraq.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-017", "start": 879.38, "end": 880.18, "text": "This is not Afghanistan.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-018", "start": 880.68, "end": 882.34, "text": "Okay. I want to bring in the other panelists.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-019", "start": 883.48, "end": 884.54, "text": "I don't want to cut you off,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-020", "start": 884.62, "end": 886.22, "text": "Congressman. I do want to bring in the others.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-021", "start": 886.22, "end": 886.88, "text": "It's very complex.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "eed2f9a81616bb70fded9d6fe32420a8245bb14dade905c7f0868a88f5113f20", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0019", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=844s", "time_label": "14:04", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0020", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "start": 887.14, "end": 938.99, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "I guess we know it, Piers. Sorry? I said it's just very complex, Piers, to get into a 30 -second segment. No, no. Listen, I totally respect that, but we have obviously got four panelists. I want to bring in Ryan Grim because I can see you reacting to some of the things you were hearing there. I mean, the congressman makes it sound relatively straightforward. The mission is going very well. The stuff that they wanted to achieve is being achieved, and it won't be long before Reza Pahlavi is in the middle of Tehran leading the brave new world. What do you think of that? It's just completely absurd. It's like we're going to kill all the bad guys and we're going to replace them with the good guys. It's like a foreign policy, you know, made up by elementary school students when, in fact, it is a foreign policy student that's going to be replaced that is targeting and killing elementary school students.", "word_count": 166, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-001", "start": 887.14, "end": 887.64, "text": "I guess we know it,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-002", "start": 887.76, "end": 889.71, "text": "Piers. Sorry?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-003", "start": 890.6, "end": 891.78, "text": "I said it's just very complex,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-004", "start": 891.9, "end": 893.4, "text": "Piers, to get into a 30 -second segment.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-005", "start": 894.38, "end": 894.78, "text": "No, no.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-006", "start": 894.88, "end": 896.08, "text": "Listen, I totally respect that,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-007", "start": 896.14, "end": 897.38, "text": "but we have obviously got four panelists.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-008", "start": 897.46, "end": 899.82, "text": "I want to bring in Ryan Grim because I can see you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-009", "start": 899.82, "end": 901.98, "text": "reacting to some of the things you were hearing there.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-010", "start": 903.3, "end": 907.3, "text": "I mean, the congressman makes it sound relatively straightforward.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-011", "start": 907.58, "end": 908.8, "text": "The mission is going very well.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-012", "start": 909.02, "end": 912.64, "text": "The stuff that they wanted to achieve is being achieved,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-013", "start": 912.86, "end": 916.36, "text": "and it won't be long before Reza Pahlavi is in the middle", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-014", "start": 916.36, "end": 918.64, "text": "of Tehran leading the brave new world.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-015", "start": 918.78, "end": 919.42, "text": "What do you think of that?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-016", "start": 922.33, "end": 923.95, "text": "It's just completely absurd.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-017", "start": 924.15, "end": 927.05, "text": "It's like we're going to kill all the bad guys and we're", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-018", "start": 927.05, "end": 928.97, "text": "going to replace them with the good guys.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-019", "start": 929.09, "end": 930.41, "text": "It's like a foreign policy,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-020", "start": 930.53, "end": 933.61, "text": "you know, made up by elementary school students when,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-021", "start": 933.65, "end": 935.99, "text": "in fact, it is a foreign policy student that's going to be", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-022", "start": 935.99, "end": 936.21, "text": "replaced that is", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-023", "start": 936.21, "end": 938.99, "text": "targeting and killing elementary school students.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "71a221d52cc234d3945dbe622b5e4f0a89f61bc0b1fe9de2a7f2fc9c4e7c37ab", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0020", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=887s", "time_label": "14:47", "tags": [ "exchange", "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0021", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "start": 939.11, "end": 992.34, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "That's what it's doing in the real world, in this, like, fantasy land. You're like, oh, get this bad guy, get this bad guy, get this bad guy, and, oh, Reza over here, who lives in Potomac, Maryland, we're going to, like, ship him over to Iran and he's going to be the new king of Iran? Like, it's embarrassing. And what about the mission itself in terms of the changing positions? And I thought, and I'll come to Gideon about this in a moment, but it was very telling to me that it looked like the mask slightly slipped when Marco Rubio said, well, the need to attack preemptively from the United States was because they had been told somebody else, clearly Israel, was about to attack Iran and that Iran would then respond likely against American bases and that because of that, America had to get in first. And then, of course, they tried to wind that back.", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-001", "start": 939.11, "end": 941.15, "text": "That's what it's doing in the real world,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-002", "start": 941.19, "end": 942.35, "text": "in this, like, fantasy land.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-003", "start": 942.47, "end": 943.99, "text": "You're like, oh, get this bad guy,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-004", "start": 944.05, "end": 945.53, "text": "get this bad guy, get this bad guy,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-005", "start": 945.59, "end": 947.25, "text": "and, oh, Reza over here,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-006", "start": 947.27, "end": 948.39, "text": "who lives in Potomac, Maryland,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-007", "start": 948.55, "end": 951.43, "text": "we're going to, like, ship him over to Iran and he's going", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-008", "start": 951.43, "end": 952.47, "text": "to be the new king of Iran?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-009", "start": 952.65, "end": 954.33, "text": "Like, it's embarrassing.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-010", "start": 956.7, "end": 960.34, "text": "And what about the mission itself in terms of the changing positions?", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-011", "start": 960.82, "end": 963.28, "text": "And I thought, and I'll come to Gideon about this in a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-012", "start": 963.28, "end": 966.78, "text": "moment, but it was very telling to me that it looked like", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-013", "start": 966.78, "end": 971.18, "text": "the mask slightly slipped when Marco Rubio said,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-014", "start": 971.44, "end": 976.76, "text": "well, the need to attack preemptively from the United States was because", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-015", "start": 976.76, "end": 978.42, "text": "they had been told somebody else,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-016", "start": 978.56, "end": 982.58, "text": "clearly Israel, was about to attack Iran and that Iran would then", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-017", "start": 982.58, "end": 987.04, "text": "respond likely against American bases and that because of that,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-018", "start": 987.14, "end": 989.12, "text": "America had to get in first.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-019", "start": 989.46, "end": 990.52, "text": "And then, of course,", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-020", "start": 990.54, "end": 992.34, "text": "they tried to wind that back.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "d0608f6107e66d886aa2d5bb1d6572c4aca292b03454f47a4daba07e47157bb3", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0021", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=939s", "time_label": "15:39", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0022", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "start": 992.48, "end": 1044.94, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "I don't think Marco Rubio misspoke. I just think they didn't appreciate it. They didn't appreciate quite how that was going to play out. Right. And because we haven't gotten a rationale that they have stuck to, initially it was the nuclear program, then it was regime change. We've now been told that neither of those are actually objectives of the war anymore. Dropsite put out a poll into the field over the last weekend asking the American public, why do you think the U.S. went into this war? 50 % of the country believes now that Donald Trump, at least in part, went to war against Iran in order to distract from the Jeffrey Epstein scandal. So by a 50 to 41 margin, that's what the American public believes, likely voters. We also asked about the influence of Israel. Nearly 50%, I think 46 % of likely voters said that they believed", "word_count": 154, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-001", "start": 992.48, "end": 995.16, "text": "I don't think Marco Rubio misspoke.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-002", "start": 995.24, "end": 997.22, "text": "I just think they didn't appreciate it.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-003", "start": 997.24, "end": 999.08, "text": "They didn't appreciate quite how that was going to play out.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-004", "start": 1001.24, "end": 1005, "text": "Right. And because we haven't gotten a rationale that they have stuck", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-005", "start": 1005, "end": 1006.74, "text": "to, initially it was the nuclear program,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-006", "start": 1006.92, "end": 1007.92, "text": "then it was regime change.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-007", "start": 1008.08, "end": 1010.96, "text": "We've now been told that neither of those are actually objectives of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-008", "start": 1010.96, "end": 1011.54, "text": "the war anymore.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-009", "start": 1012.34, "end": 1017.04, "text": "Dropsite put out a poll into the field over the last weekend", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-010", "start": 1017.04, "end": 1020.28, "text": "asking the American public, why do you think the U.S.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-011", "start": 1020.28, "end": 1021.1, "text": "went into this war?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-012", "start": 1021.48, "end": 1026.5, "text": "50 % of the country believes now that Donald Trump,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-013", "start": 1026.64, "end": 1029.9, "text": "at least in part, went to war against Iran in order to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-014", "start": 1029.9, "end": 1031.62, "text": "distract from the Jeffrey Epstein scandal.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-015", "start": 1031.82, "end": 1033.38, "text": "So by a 50 to 41 margin,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-016", "start": 1033.56, "end": 1035.1, "text": "that's what the American public believes,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-017", "start": 1035.2, "end": 1035.78, "text": "likely voters.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-018", "start": 1036.28, "end": 1038.74, "text": "We also asked about the influence of Israel.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-019", "start": 1039.78, "end": 1044.46, "text": "Nearly 50%, I think 46 % of likely voters said that they", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-020", "start": 1044.46, "end": 1044.94, "text": "believed", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "4c300df57235797ef9bc7abc5744ed897d4b84d091c4e125b990f31e7db9496c", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0022", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=992s", "time_label": "16:32", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0023", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "start": 1044.94, "end": 1101.71, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "that Trump was more responsive when it came to the war in Iran to Benjamin Netanyahu than he was to the American public. I think 47 % said he was more responsive to the American people than to Benjamin Netanyahu. So as almost 50 % of that, he ran as America first, not even 50 % of the country believes that he went to war for the United States. We have never had a president in the history of the United States who went to a war of any sort, let alone a war of this scale and had nearly half the country believing, whether it's true or not, believing that he did it for a different country. Or actually, Gideon Levy, there hasn't been a war that I can remember in modern times where there hasn't been a majority support from the American people once it started. And there isn't for this. It's an unpopular war. The majority of Americans do not want America to be waging this war.", "word_count": 170, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-001", "start": 1044.94, "end": 1048.52, "text": "that Trump was more responsive when it came to the war in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-002", "start": 1048.52, "end": 1052.82, "text": "Iran to Benjamin Netanyahu than he was to the American public.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-003", "start": 1053.26, "end": 1056.92, "text": "I think 47 % said he was more responsive to the American", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-004", "start": 1056.92, "end": 1059.4, "text": "people than to Benjamin Netanyahu.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-005", "start": 1059.52, "end": 1061.56, "text": "So as almost 50 % of that,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-006", "start": 1061.64, "end": 1063.24, "text": "he ran as America first,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-007", "start": 1063.4, "end": 1065.82, "text": "not even 50 % of the country believes that he went to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-008", "start": 1065.82, "end": 1067.54, "text": "war for the United States.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-009", "start": 1067.66, "end": 1070.56, "text": "We have never had a president in the history of the United", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-010", "start": 1070.56, "end": 1073.46, "text": "States who went to a war of any sort,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-011", "start": 1073.6, "end": 1076.98, "text": "let alone a war of this scale and had nearly half the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-012", "start": 1076.98, "end": 1079.5, "text": "country believing, whether it's true or not,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-013", "start": 1079.66, "end": 1082.54, "text": "believing that he did it for a different country.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-014", "start": 1084.37, "end": 1088.05, "text": "Or actually, Gideon Levy, there hasn't been a war that I can", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-015", "start": 1088.05, "end": 1092.45, "text": "remember in modern times where there hasn't been a majority support from", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-016", "start": 1092.45, "end": 1094.35, "text": "the American people once it started.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-017", "start": 1094.57, "end": 1095.85, "text": "And there isn't for this.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-018", "start": 1096.03, "end": 1097.49, "text": "It's an unpopular war.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-019", "start": 1097.71, "end": 1098.57, "text": "The majority of", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-020", "start": 1098.57, "end": 1101.71, "text": "Americans do not want America to be waging this war.", "word_count": 10 } ], "text_sha256": "8f1cee6785390b40c4b098f05341b0f13af357b72fac9ac4a07872871de3175d", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0023", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=1044s", "time_label": "17:24", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0024", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "start": 1101.89, "end": 1154.51, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "They're particularly concerned because they've already still got inflation, still got rising costs. They've seen prices at the gas pump now rocketing in the last two weeks. This is the biggest turmoil for oil prices in history that has already happened in the first two weeks and could get a hell of a lot worse. So purely from that perspective, I think Donald Trump politically has taken an enormous gamble here. But in relation to the role of Israel, you know, there is a theory that Trump has been sort of barreled into doing this by Benjamin Netanyahu sort of wearing him down and saying, look, we've got a window. The Ayatollah is with all his top people right now. We can take them all out and it'll be a bit like Venezuela. Where you take out the head and the rest follows. And that having committed to that and talked about quick regime change, clearly that hasn't happened.", "word_count": 159, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-001", "start": 1101.89, "end": 1105.67, "text": "They're particularly concerned because they've already still got inflation,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-002", "start": 1106.03, "end": 1107.71, "text": "still got rising costs.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-003", "start": 1107.99, "end": 1112.23, "text": "They've seen prices at the gas pump now rocketing in the last", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-004", "start": 1112.23, "end": 1112.85, "text": "two weeks.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-005", "start": 1113.05, "end": 1120.01, "text": "This is the biggest turmoil for oil prices in history that has", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-006", "start": 1120.01, "end": 1122.23, "text": "already happened in the first two weeks and could get a hell", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-007", "start": 1122.23, "end": 1122.87, "text": "of a lot worse.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-008", "start": 1123.11, "end": 1124.79, "text": "So purely from that perspective,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-009", "start": 1124.99, "end": 1128.33, "text": "I think Donald Trump politically has taken an enormous gamble here.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-010", "start": 1128.53, "end": 1130.79, "text": "But in relation to the role of Israel,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-011", "start": 1131.09, "end": 1134.87, "text": "you know, there is a theory that Trump has been sort of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-012", "start": 1134.87, "end": 1138.79, "text": "barreled into doing this by Benjamin Netanyahu sort of wearing him down", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-013", "start": 1138.79, "end": 1140.49, "text": "and saying, look, we've got a window.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-014", "start": 1140.83, "end": 1143.19, "text": "The Ayatollah is with all his top people right now.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-015", "start": 1143.25, "end": 1145.45, "text": "We can take them all out and it'll be a bit like", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-016", "start": 1145.45, "end": 1148.07, "text": "Venezuela. Where you take out the head and the rest follows.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-017", "start": 1148.31, "end": 1150.71, "text": "And that having committed to that and", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-018", "start": 1150.71, "end": 1152.65, "text": "talked about quick regime change,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-019", "start": 1152.91, "end": 1154.51, "text": "clearly that hasn't happened.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "59aa626f192cf28eb8118f91bac345fb49699b00edd3befeb820d38824f2a6d5", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0024", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=1101s", "time_label": "18:21", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0025", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "start": 1154.65, "end": 1211.3, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "In fact, the Ayatollah's own son is reported to be the new supreme leader, although we haven't seen him. And coupled with that, there's a sense that Israel has a different objective here. That Israel will be quite happy if this all plunges Iran into total anarchic chaos. A bit like happened in Syria. And that that would suit Israel and Israel's longer term needs and wants, which it kind of just reduces it to anarchy. Whereas that would not suit the United States. So there could be two different sort of missions here where Israel's quite happy if this just drags on and on and on and is a bit of a disaster. But the United States would find that very, very difficult to manage. What are your thoughts on that? So first of all, we are witnessing now the backlash of the 7th of October, 23. Ever since then,", "word_count": 151, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-001", "start": 1154.65, "end": 1157.33, "text": "In fact, the Ayatollah's own son is reported to be the new", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-002", "start": 1157.33, "end": 1158.89, "text": "supreme leader, although we haven't seen him.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-003", "start": 1159.67, "end": 1163.19, "text": "And coupled with that, there's a sense that Israel has a different", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-004", "start": 1163.19, "end": 1164.01, "text": "objective here.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-005", "start": 1164.15, "end": 1168.27, "text": "That Israel will be quite happy if this all plunges Iran into", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-006", "start": 1168.27, "end": 1169.91, "text": "total anarchic chaos.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-007", "start": 1170.93, "end": 1173.29, "text": "A bit like happened in Syria.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-008", "start": 1173.47, "end": 1178.79, "text": "And that that would suit Israel and Israel's longer term needs and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-009", "start": 1178.79, "end": 1182.27, "text": "wants, which it kind of just reduces it to anarchy.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-010", "start": 1182.85, "end": 1184.85, "text": "Whereas that would not suit the United States.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-011", "start": 1184.97, "end": 1189.53, "text": "So there could be two different sort of missions here where Israel's", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-012", "start": 1189.53, "end": 1192.53, "text": "quite happy if this just drags on and on and on and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-013", "start": 1192.53, "end": 1193.47, "text": "is a bit of a disaster.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-014", "start": 1194.41, "end": 1197.31, "text": "But the United States would find that very,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-015", "start": 1197.41, "end": 1198.95, "text": "very difficult to manage.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-016", "start": 1199.21, "end": 1200.53, "text": "What are your thoughts on that?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-017", "start": 1202.88, "end": 1206.72, "text": "So first of all, we are witnessing now the backlash of the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-018", "start": 1206.72, "end": 1209.04, "text": "7th of October, 23.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-019", "start": 1209.9, "end": 1211.3, "text": "Ever since then,", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "1511e15419b8aaed309efacf030579138c0ae56e7f96b0849202ea4318271f73", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0025", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=1154s", "time_label": "19:14", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0026", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "start": 1211.48, "end": 1273.1, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "Israel turned into the notion that everything can be solved and everything is legitimate to be solved by force and by a lot of force, by unlimited force. We will change the leadership of the Middle East. First, we tried in Gaza. I must remind you, two and a half years, no regime change in Gaza. Even though it was a very clear goal never achieved Hamas's life and kicking and don't compare Gaza to Iran, obviously. And now we went to this war again as the first option as while totally ignoring, you know, in this discussion, Piers, and thank you for having me again. In this discussion, we hardly spoke about other prices. We all spoke about the prices of oil and the economical price. There are millions of people who were displaced in the last two years by Israel and now by the United States. Most of them have no place to go back. What about them?", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-001", "start": 1211.48, "end": 1217.3, "text": "Israel turned into the notion that everything can be solved and everything", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-002", "start": 1217.3, "end": 1221.42, "text": "is legitimate to be solved by force and by a lot of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-003", "start": 1221.42, "end": 1223, "text": "force, by unlimited force.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-004", "start": 1223.64, "end": 1226.14, "text": "We will change the leadership of the Middle East.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-005", "start": 1226.34, "end": 1227.92, "text": "First, we tried in Gaza.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-006", "start": 1228.1, "end": 1230.34, "text": "I must remind you, two and a half years,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-007", "start": 1230.46, "end": 1231.94, "text": "no regime change in Gaza.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-008", "start": 1232.16, "end": 1238.18, "text": "Even though it was a very clear goal never achieved Hamas's life", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-009", "start": 1238.18, "end": 1241.38, "text": "and kicking and don't compare Gaza to Iran,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-010", "start": 1241.52, "end": 1245.74, "text": "obviously. And now we went to this war again as the first", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-011", "start": 1245.74, "end": 1250.44, "text": "option as while totally ignoring,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-012", "start": 1250.64, "end": 1251.68, "text": "you know, in this discussion,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-013", "start": 1251.88, "end": 1253.72, "text": "Piers, and thank you for having me again.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-014", "start": 1253.88, "end": 1257.54, "text": "In this discussion, we hardly spoke about other prices.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-015", "start": 1257.64, "end": 1261.88, "text": "We all spoke about the prices of oil and the economical price.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-016", "start": 1262.08, "end": 1266.42, "text": "There are millions of people who were displaced in the last two", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-017", "start": 1266.42, "end": 1269.14, "text": "years by Israel and now by the United States.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-018", "start": 1269.46, "end": 1271.7, "text": "Most of them have no place to go back.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-019", "start": 1271.96, "end": 1273.1, "text": "What about them?", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "62756dd602eb98fec249804634ded0d557eb2dda2ccea1885ec0ec2732d7dfb8", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0026", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=1211s", "time_label": "20:11", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0027", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "start": 1273.42, "end": 1344.98, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "They are totally not in this formula of comparing utility and price. No. They must be remembered. Now, coming back to your question, Piers, Israel went to this war without having a very clear endgame. They saw an opportunity. There was a... The stars showed that Trump and Netanyahu get along and would agree about such an adventure, such a dangerous adventure, and they went for it. I don't know who convinced whom. It sounds more logical that Netanyahu convinced the American president, even though he's not someone to be so easily convinced. But in any case, look at the outcome. Is the world a better place today than two weeks ago, for God's sake? Is Israel a more secure place than two weeks ago? Is the United States stronger today than two weeks ago? Those are the questions which are not asked. And one more word, Piers, with your permission. We were speaking about the big criticism in American public opinion about this war.", "word_count": 165, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-001", "start": 1273.42, "end": 1279.8, "text": "They are totally not in this formula of comparing utility and price.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-002", "start": 1280.12, "end": 1282.78, "text": "No. They must be remembered.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-003", "start": 1283, "end": 1285, "text": "Now, coming back to your question,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-004", "start": 1285.14, "end": 1290.66, "text": "Piers, Israel went to this war without having a very clear endgame.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-005", "start": 1290.92, "end": 1292.64, "text": "They saw an opportunity.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-006", "start": 1293.06, "end": 1294.28, "text": "There was a...", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-007", "start": 1294.28, "end": 1300.96, "text": "The stars showed that Trump and Netanyahu get along and would agree", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-008", "start": 1300.96, "end": 1304.6, "text": "about such an adventure, such a dangerous adventure,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-009", "start": 1305.2, "end": 1306.32, "text": "and they went for it.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-010", "start": 1306.4, "end": 1308.06, "text": "I don't know who convinced whom.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-011", "start": 1308.18, "end": 1314.1, "text": "It sounds more logical that Netanyahu convinced the American president,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-012", "start": 1314.16, "end": 1317.04, "text": "even though he's not someone to be so easily convinced.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-013", "start": 1317.24, "end": 1319.38, "text": "But in any case, look at the outcome.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-014", "start": 1319.52, "end": 1322.96, "text": "Is the world a better place today than two weeks ago,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-015", "start": 1323.04, "end": 1323.84, "text": "for God's sake?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-016", "start": 1323.84, "end": 1328.02, "text": "Is Israel a more secure place than two weeks ago?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-017", "start": 1328.26, "end": 1331.58, "text": "Is the United States stronger today than two weeks ago?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-018", "start": 1331.74, "end": 1335.54, "text": "Those are the questions which are not asked.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-019", "start": 1335.84, "end": 1337.7, "text": "And one more word, Piers,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-020", "start": 1337.72, "end": 1338.34, "text": "with your permission.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-021", "start": 1338.64, "end": 1342.48, "text": "We were speaking about the big criticism in American", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-022", "start": 1342.48, "end": 1344.98, "text": "public opinion about this war.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "7cfa1569adb9e5be476bb79d5112b08b0fda1bffe965eb79a15d55201aa9ab69", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0027", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=1273s", "time_label": "21:13", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0028", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "start": 1345.46, "end": 1410.91, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "Surprise, surprise. 94 % of the Israeli Jews support this war. Can you believe it? Those are people who pay a price for this war. 94. Those are North Korean figures. Only in North Korea you get, on any issue, 94 % support. Let's think also about this. A state after two and a half terrible war in Gaza wants another war. What does it tell us about the Israeli society? Yeah, and of course, you know, Netanyahu was in deep political peril after October the 7th, because people were blaming him for allowing it to happen on his watch. He was facing a corruption, a criminal trial. That's been put on the back burner. He's seen his personal popularity rising at the same rate that he's been bombing places. And he's probably doing the maths and working out quite cynically, because he can be very cynical, that the best way for his own political preservation is to carry on doing what he's doing, which is settling all the scores.", "word_count": 170, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-001", "start": 1345.46, "end": 1346.46, "text": "Surprise, surprise.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-002", "start": 1346.84, "end": 1351.06, "text": "94 % of the Israeli Jews support this war.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-003", "start": 1351.46, "end": 1352.82, "text": "Can you believe it?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-004", "start": 1352.82, "end": 1355.02, "text": "Those are people who pay a price for this war.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-005", "start": 1355.6, "end": 1358.54, "text": "94. Those are North Korean figures.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-006", "start": 1358.88, "end": 1360.62, "text": "Only in North Korea you get,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-007", "start": 1360.72, "end": 1364.14, "text": "on any issue, 94 % support.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-008", "start": 1364.52, "end": 1366.4, "text": "Let's think also about this.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-009", "start": 1366.62, "end": 1371.54, "text": "A state after two and a half terrible war in Gaza wants", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-010", "start": 1371.54, "end": 1372.5, "text": "another war.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-011", "start": 1372.72, "end": 1375.2, "text": "What does it tell us about the Israeli society?", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-012", "start": 1378.39, "end": 1379.91, "text": "Yeah, and of course, you know,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-013", "start": 1379.91, "end": 1383.99, "text": "Netanyahu was in deep political peril after October the 7th,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-014", "start": 1383.99, "end": 1387.07, "text": "because people were blaming him for allowing it to happen on his", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-015", "start": 1387.07, "end": 1388.55, "text": "watch. He was facing a corruption,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-016", "start": 1388.71, "end": 1390.15, "text": "a criminal trial.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-017", "start": 1390.39, "end": 1392.27, "text": "That's been put on the back burner.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-018", "start": 1392.53, "end": 1397.13, "text": "He's seen his personal popularity rising at the same rate that he's", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-019", "start": 1397.13, "end": 1398.13, "text": "been bombing places.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-020", "start": 1398.53, "end": 1402.21, "text": "And he's probably doing the maths and working out quite cynically,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-021", "start": 1402.31, "end": 1403.67, "text": "because he can be very cynical,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-022", "start": 1403.89, "end": 1405.81, "text": "that the best way for his own political", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-023", "start": 1405.81, "end": 1408.71, "text": "preservation is to carry on doing what he's doing,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-024", "start": 1408.85, "end": 1410.91, "text": "which is settling all the scores.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "1b0546b4b09582384c9655cf06fc3e0de1be4f2ba10a5f02ac74fe6277a85a2c", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0028", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=1345s", "time_label": "22:25", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0029", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "start": 1411.09, "end": 1467.02, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "I mean, he made it clear that Iran was a 40 -year project for him, which was finally happening. Rob O 'Neill, I know you've got to leave us imminently. As an American, putting aside your amazing career in the military, but as an American, given the state of the economy, given the real -time effect on Americans at the pump with food prices, there's still inflation, so they've carried on going up, given that Donald Trump campaigned so vociferously, that he wasn't going to take America into any more wars, particularly in the Middle East, and he was going to sort out the economy and sort out the cost of living. Are you comfortable that he's now launched the biggest war in the Middle East imaginable and is having such a huge effect on the economy? He says this is all a price worth paying.", "word_count": 146, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-001", "start": 1411.09, "end": 1414.83, "text": "I mean, he made it clear that Iran was a 40 -year", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-002", "start": 1414.83, "end": 1417.85, "text": "project for him, which was finally happening.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-003", "start": 1418.09, "end": 1421.29, "text": "Rob O 'Neill, I know you've got to leave us imminently.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-004", "start": 1423.53, "end": 1428.63, "text": "As an American, putting aside your amazing career in the military,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-005", "start": 1428.77, "end": 1431.55, "text": "but as an American, given the state of the economy,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-006", "start": 1431.73, "end": 1437.55, "text": "given the real -time effect on Americans at the pump with food", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-007", "start": 1437.55, "end": 1440.43, "text": "prices, there's still inflation, so they've carried on going up,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-008", "start": 1440.53, "end": 1443.73, "text": "given that Donald Trump campaigned so vociferously,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-009", "start": 1443.75, "end": 1447.39, "text": "that he wasn't going to take America into any more wars,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-010", "start": 1447.47, "end": 1449.39, "text": "particularly in the Middle East,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-011", "start": 1449.47, "end": 1452.67, "text": "and he was going to sort out the economy and sort out", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-012", "start": 1452.67, "end": 1453.77, "text": "the cost of living.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-013", "start": 1453.99, "end": 1458.77, "text": "Are you comfortable that he's now launched the biggest war in the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-014", "start": 1458.77, "end": 1463.47, "text": "Middle East imaginable and is having such a huge effect on the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-015", "start": 1463.47, "end": 1466.71, "text": "economy? He says this is all a price worth", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-016", "start": 1466.71, "end": 1467.02, "text": "paying.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "1865b9b5a8e2275727eeed523a921a5bcf4ca17ba6c4743bc8c152f038bd8098", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0029", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=1411s", "time_label": "23:31", "tags": [ "question" ] }, { "id": "seg-0030", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "start": 1467.02, "end": 1513.92, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "Do you agree with that? I do, in theory, agree with it, that if it does work out, the prices of everything will go down because it will positively affect oil prices, and that, as we know, affects everything. I'm not... I mean, yeah, I'm optimistic, but I don't like seeing this, I don't like going to war. I do know President Trump, and I know he loves his legacy and he cares about his family, and I think, given the intel that I'm not privy to, I'm not in the meetings either that he's gotten or where he is, this is the way to go in order to get the stability. You know, whenever you get preemptive strikes on people, it's hard to say. I mean, we knew what Hitler was doing in 1938. We didn't do anything. President Buchanan and Pierce had something to do. They didn't... They weren't aggressive with the South at the time before they were mighty.", "word_count": 162, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-001", "start": 1467.02, "end": 1468.57, "text": "Do you agree with that?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-002", "start": 1469.34, "end": 1472.38, "text": "I do, in theory, agree with it,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-003", "start": 1472.4, "end": 1473.8, "text": "that if it does work out,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-004", "start": 1473.8, "end": 1476.94, "text": "the prices of everything will go down because it will positively affect", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-005", "start": 1476.94, "end": 1479.98, "text": "oil prices, and that, as we know,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-006", "start": 1480, "end": 1480.6, "text": "affects everything.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-007", "start": 1481.46, "end": 1482.26, "text": "I'm not...", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-008", "start": 1482.26, "end": 1483.6, "text": "I mean, yeah, I'm optimistic,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-009", "start": 1483.72, "end": 1485.3, "text": "but I don't like seeing this,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-010", "start": 1485.34, "end": 1486.2, "text": "I don't like going to war.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-011", "start": 1486.68, "end": 1488.64, "text": "I do know President Trump,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-012", "start": 1488.7, "end": 1490.84, "text": "and I know he loves his legacy and he cares about his", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-013", "start": 1490.84, "end": 1494.54, "text": "family, and I think, given the intel that I'm not privy to,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-014", "start": 1494.58, "end": 1496.52, "text": "I'm not in the meetings either that he's gotten or where he", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-015", "start": 1496.52, "end": 1499.66, "text": "is, this is the way to go in order to get the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-016", "start": 1499.66, "end": 1503.58, "text": "stability. You know, whenever you get preemptive strikes on people,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-017", "start": 1503.8, "end": 1505.16, "text": "it's hard to say.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-018", "start": 1505.24, "end": 1507, "text": "I mean, we knew what Hitler was doing in 1938.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-019", "start": 1507.14, "end": 1508.04, "text": "We didn't do anything.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-020", "start": 1508.28, "end": 1510.18, "text": "President Buchanan and Pierce had something to do.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-021", "start": 1510.3, "end": 1510.84, "text": "They didn't...", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-022", "start": 1510.84, "end": 1513.44, "text": "They weren't aggressive with the South at the time before", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-023", "start": 1513.44, "end": 1513.92, "text": "they were mighty.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "55f107f808b80e0d7b839ac4f7bf65e22a481e5bd871870cf50a42302a52ffc3", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0030", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=1467s", "time_label": "24:27", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0031", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "start": 1513.96, "end": 1553.52, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "We had the Civil War, a million people died. Preemptive strikes, though, 2003. I went to Iraq. Turns out it wasn't the way to go. So, I mean, I'm very, very cautious. As the father of four daughters, and hearing a missile hit a school, if it's true, everyone should apologize. Like, we can figure out who did it later. This is a result of our conflict, usually because men and political parties and political power couldn't agree on something. That's what we should say. And that, unfortunately, with all the cheering aside and all the cool movies, that's the end result on the ground. That's the difference between being there and seeing it on TV. So, again, I'm gonna watch it. But I want to... I would love to see every family in the world be successful and pay lower gas prices. And I really... I really, like I said, I really do believe... do believe", "word_count": 157, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-001", "start": 1513.96, "end": 1514.54, "text": "We had the Civil War,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-002", "start": 1514.62, "end": 1515.28, "text": "a million people died.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-003", "start": 1515.96, "end": 1517.04, "text": "Preemptive strikes, though, 2003.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-004", "start": 1517.46, "end": 1518.06, "text": "I went to Iraq.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-005", "start": 1518.16, "end": 1519.38, "text": "Turns out it wasn't the way to go.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-006", "start": 1519.48, "end": 1521.54, "text": "So, I mean, I'm very,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-007", "start": 1521.62, "end": 1522.16, "text": "very cautious.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-008", "start": 1522.28, "end": 1523.82, "text": "As the father of four daughters,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-009", "start": 1523.92, "end": 1525.9, "text": "and hearing a missile hit a school,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-010", "start": 1526.04, "end": 1528.28, "text": "if it's true, everyone should apologize.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-011", "start": 1528.58, "end": 1530.12, "text": "Like, we can figure out who did it later.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-012", "start": 1530.22, "end": 1531.74, "text": "This is a result of our conflict,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-013", "start": 1531.9, "end": 1534.76, "text": "usually because men and political parties and political power couldn't agree on", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-014", "start": 1534.76, "end": 1535.78, "text": "something. That's what we should say.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-015", "start": 1535.9, "end": 1538.62, "text": "And that, unfortunately, with all the cheering aside and all the cool", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-016", "start": 1538.62, "end": 1540.82, "text": "movies, that's the end result on the ground.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-017", "start": 1540.94, "end": 1543.3, "text": "That's the difference between being there and seeing it on TV.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-018", "start": 1543.78, "end": 1545.58, "text": "So, again, I'm gonna watch it.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-019", "start": 1545.64, "end": 1546.8, "text": "But I want to...", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-020", "start": 1546.8, "end": 1548.94, "text": "I would love to see every family in the world be successful", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-021", "start": 1548.94, "end": 1550.36, "text": "and pay lower gas prices.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-022", "start": 1550.6, "end": 1551.36, "text": "And I really...", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-023", "start": 1551.36, "end": 1551.96, "text": "I really, like I said,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-024", "start": 1552.02, "end": 1552.66, "text": "I really do believe...", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-025", "start": 1552.66, "end": 1553.52, "text": "do believe", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "ff7d1a450937edea4fb3e104d7eef4fd6783247addad45f19c0c5846f4d73fd0", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0031", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=1513s", "time_label": "25:13", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0032", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "start": 1553.52, "end": 1607.96, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "this administration is doing what they think is the right thing for the future, not just of the country but of the West. Don't like war, hate cheering for war, but I'm watching. And, again, I'm trying to stay open -minded. We'll do everything I can to help with world peace. I thought I did before, and here we are again. Yeah. Um, Congressman Mills, I mean, politically, it's a massive, stupendous roll of the dice by Donald Trump. The midterm elections are coming in November. Historically, a president in his position would normally probably lose the House. That's expected to happen. But now there's lots of rumblings this may cost in the Senate, which would basically leave him a completely lame duck. Uh, for the last two years of his presidency. Uh, and right now, he can keep saying, this is all over, we've won, and so on. But the reality on the ground, which we can all see with our own eyes, is very different.", "word_count": 167, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-001", "start": 1553.52, "end": 1556.44, "text": "this administration is doing what they think is the right thing for", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-002", "start": 1556.44, "end": 1558.54, "text": "the future, not just of the country but of the West.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-003", "start": 1559, "end": 1560.7, "text": "Don't like war, hate cheering for war,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-004", "start": 1560.78, "end": 1561.28, "text": "but I'm watching.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-005", "start": 1561.42, "end": 1562.92, "text": "And, again, I'm trying to stay open -minded.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-006", "start": 1563.8, "end": 1566.62, "text": "We'll do everything I can to help with world peace.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-007", "start": 1566.7, "end": 1567.44, "text": "I thought I did before,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-008", "start": 1567.58, "end": 1568.6, "text": "and here we are again.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-009", "start": 1569.72, "end": 1572.66, "text": "Yeah. Um, Congressman Mills, I mean,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-010", "start": 1572.7, "end": 1578.28, "text": "politically, it's a massive, stupendous roll of the dice by Donald Trump.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-011", "start": 1578.5, "end": 1580.64, "text": "The midterm elections are coming in November.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-012", "start": 1581.58, "end": 1586.66, "text": "Historically, a president in his position would normally probably lose the House.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-013", "start": 1586.72, "end": 1588.02, "text": "That's expected to happen.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-014", "start": 1588.2, "end": 1591.32, "text": "But now there's lots of rumblings this may cost in the Senate,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-015", "start": 1591.38, "end": 1594.22, "text": "which would basically leave him a completely lame duck.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-016", "start": 1594.38, "end": 1596.56, "text": "Uh, for the last two years of his presidency.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-017", "start": 1597.3, "end": 1599.86, "text": "Uh, and right now, he can keep saying,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-018", "start": 1599.94, "end": 1601.54, "text": "this is all over, we've won,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-019", "start": 1601.72, "end": 1602.68, "text": "and so on.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-020", "start": 1602.74, "end": 1604.22, "text": "But the reality on the ground,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-021", "start": 1604.54, "end": 1605.62, "text": "which we can all see", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-022", "start": 1605.62, "end": 1607.96, "text": "with our own eyes, is very different.", "word_count": 7 } ], "text_sha256": "efc12f747fcc4c3b6869207987ee2d682d044431d7c8db4acd13dcc8fc7e1b8b", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0032", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=1553s", "time_label": "25:53", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0033", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "start": 1608.22, "end": 1652.82, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "Are you worried politically about this if it carries on much longer? Well, let me just go ahead and touch on something. And Rob had talked about it, and it's been severed, like, many times about oil and economics. What we have to understand is this. Just like I talked about with that geopolitical alignment after the U.S. dollar as a global currency, it's not about the dollar, the baht, the yen, the ruble, the dinar. It's always been about energy. Energy is a global currency. And what we knew is that you have the ability here to not only eliminate an evil regime and stop nuclear capabilities that could actually threaten the West as well as for our allies and ourselves, but also to help start getting a stability solution against all these Shia -backed militias who are being funded by this type of illicit trade of oil to China. Now, why does this always look as an individual thing?", "word_count": 162, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-001", "start": 1608.22, "end": 1612.68, "text": "Are you worried politically about this if it carries on much longer?", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-002", "start": 1613.82, "end": 1615.5, "text": "Well, let me just go ahead and touch on something.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-003", "start": 1615.66, "end": 1616.7, "text": "And Rob had talked about it,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-004", "start": 1616.74, "end": 1617.78, "text": "and it's been severed, like,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-005", "start": 1617.84, "end": 1619.74, "text": "many times about oil and economics.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-006", "start": 1620.04, "end": 1621.54, "text": "What we have to understand is this.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-007", "start": 1621.9, "end": 1625.36, "text": "Just like I talked about with that geopolitical alignment after the U", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-008", "start": 1625.36, "end": 1626.3, "text": ".S. dollar as a global currency,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-009", "start": 1626.4, "end": 1627.5, "text": "it's not about the dollar,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-010", "start": 1627.58, "end": 1628.94, "text": "the baht, the yen, the ruble,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-011", "start": 1629, "end": 1629.8, "text": "the dinar.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-012", "start": 1630.02, "end": 1631.34, "text": "It's always been about energy.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-013", "start": 1631.46, "end": 1632.56, "text": "Energy is a global currency.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-014", "start": 1632.8, "end": 1635.24, "text": "And what we knew is that you have the ability here to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-015", "start": 1635.24, "end": 1638.5, "text": "not only eliminate an evil regime and stop nuclear capabilities that could", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-016", "start": 1638.5, "end": 1640.94, "text": "actually threaten the West as well as for our allies and ourselves,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-017", "start": 1641.26, "end": 1645.8, "text": "but also to help start getting a stability solution against all these", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-018", "start": 1645.8, "end": 1648.64, "text": "Shia -backed militias who are being funded by this type of illicit", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-019", "start": 1648.64, "end": 1649.9, "text": "trade of oil to China.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-020", "start": 1650, "end": 1650.22, "text": "Now,", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-021", "start": 1650.28, "end": 1652.82, "text": "why does this always look as an individual thing?", "word_count": 9 } ], "text_sha256": "53b732829e386fc4a23a19e754fd119e999fc460bb0bbcb8119fc6853c5d8d21", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0033", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=1608s", "time_label": "26:48", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0034", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "start": 1652.92, "end": 1695.54, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "It's not. If you look at the geopolitical ramifications of the elimination of Maduro, that was 70 % of the oil that went to China. Iran is another 20 % that goes to China. That now potentially stops the unification of Taiwan or the threats across the Taiwanese Strait, even though they are building up the coastal defense conscripts, et cetera. But the same thing for Russia. Russia's biggest supplier that they had actual defense goods to was actually Iran. So now you've actually got an economic loss there as well. So this is doing a lot of things for the region, not just eliminating this regime, but it will actually bounce back oil prices because we've always had issues with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. We've always had issues with the threats of trying to go after things like with the Houthis on Saudi Aramco that had an impact on the actual oil production.", "word_count": 156, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-001", "start": 1652.92, "end": 1653.24, "text": "It's not.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-002", "start": 1653.24, "end": 1656.98, "text": "If you look at the geopolitical ramifications of the elimination of Maduro,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-003", "start": 1657.1, "end": 1659.42, "text": "that was 70 % of the oil that went to China.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-004", "start": 1659.52, "end": 1661.56, "text": "Iran is another 20 % that goes to China.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-005", "start": 1661.72, "end": 1665.4, "text": "That now potentially stops the unification of Taiwan or the threats across", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-006", "start": 1665.4, "end": 1668.5, "text": "the Taiwanese Strait, even though they are building up the coastal defense", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-007", "start": 1668.5, "end": 1669.6, "text": "conscripts, et cetera.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-008", "start": 1669.76, "end": 1671.12, "text": "But the same thing for Russia.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-009", "start": 1671.46, "end": 1675.74, "text": "Russia's biggest supplier that they had actual defense goods to was actually", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-010", "start": 1675.74, "end": 1679.68, "text": "Iran. So now you've actually got an economic loss there as well.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-011", "start": 1679.82, "end": 1681.62, "text": "So this is doing a lot of things for the region,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-012", "start": 1681.7, "end": 1683.22, "text": "not just eliminating this regime,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-013", "start": 1683.24, "end": 1686.48, "text": "but it will actually bounce back oil prices because we've always had", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-014", "start": 1686.48, "end": 1688.14, "text": "issues with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-015", "start": 1688.34, "end": 1691.18, "text": "We've always had issues with the threats of trying to go after", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-016", "start": 1691.18, "end": 1693.94, "text": "things like with the Houthis on Saudi Aramco that had an impact", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-017", "start": 1693.94, "end": 1695.54, "text": "on the actual oil production.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "86ff8e403a70884d6ea3dd0de5a61edc1c3232bbd53f83bf56da9733e4787b6b", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0034", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=1652s", "time_label": "27:32", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0035", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "start": 1695.76, "end": 1741.97, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "So this is a momentary diversion, as Secretary of Energy Wright had said, that allows us to not only try and help to free innocent civilians who are dying, but not get boots on the ground. This is not Iraq and Afghanistan. We are not nation building. We are not looking to try and put in an implementation of Democrats. We're not trying to do an Article 76 of the 05 Constitution. To set forth sectarian democracy, which hasn't existed since pre -apartheid South Africa or Northern Ireland. This is about literally just trying to go good versus evil, eliminate an evil threat, guarantee stability in the region, stop innocent lives from being lost, stop a nuclear power from coming into there, and then also look at the economic properties that will benefit the US as well as from the globe. Ryan Grim, your response to that? Well, I mean, one of the economic companies that would benefit is the congressman's.", "word_count": 161, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-001", "start": 1695.76, "end": 1697.64, "text": "So this is a momentary diversion,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-002", "start": 1697.86, "end": 1699.42, "text": "as Secretary of Energy Wright had said,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-003", "start": 1699.58, "end": 1702.5, "text": "that allows us to not only try and help to free innocent", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-004", "start": 1702.5, "end": 1705, "text": "civilians who are dying, but not get boots on the ground.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-005", "start": 1705.1, "end": 1706.12, "text": "This is not Iraq and Afghanistan.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-006", "start": 1706.44, "end": 1707.42, "text": "We are not nation building.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-007", "start": 1707.58, "end": 1709.74, "text": "We are not looking to try and put in an implementation of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-008", "start": 1709.74, "end": 1712.4, "text": "Democrats. We're not trying to do an Article 76 of the 05", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-009", "start": 1712.4, "end": 1714.94, "text": "Constitution. To set forth sectarian democracy,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-010", "start": 1715.16, "end": 1718.6, "text": "which hasn't existed since pre -apartheid South Africa or Northern Ireland.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-011", "start": 1718.82, "end": 1721.96, "text": "This is about literally just trying to go good versus evil,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-012", "start": 1722.08, "end": 1725.12, "text": "eliminate an evil threat, guarantee stability in the region,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-013", "start": 1725.3, "end": 1726.54, "text": "stop innocent lives from being lost,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-014", "start": 1726.64, "end": 1728.3, "text": "stop a nuclear power from coming into there,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-015", "start": 1728.46, "end": 1731.52, "text": "and then also look at the economic properties that will benefit the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-016", "start": 1731.52, "end": 1732.58, "text": "US as well as from the globe.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-017", "start": 1734.3, "end": 1735.72, "text": "Ryan Grim, your response to that?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-018", "start": 1738.19, "end": 1740.31, "text": "Well, I mean, one of the economic companies", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-019", "start": 1740.31, "end": 1741.97, "text": "that would benefit is the congressman's.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "e1ad23ea4d610db405cd52570bab29c2ab1a0e551a6798f169c0cbcce8fcf4f4", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0035", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=1695s", "time_label": "28:15", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0036", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "start": 1742.09, "end": 1786.88, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "Congressman, correct me if I'm wrong. You... You're an arms trafficker, no? No, I'm not actually. I don't actually own a company, and I actually have divested a blind trust. I'm also the only member of Congress who actually donates 100 % of my salary... Divested into a blind trust? Those are contradictory terms. If you divest it, you don't own it anymore. Do you own an arms -trapping company? Look, I don't actually. That's the funniest part about this. Do you own an arms -trapping company? We actually train our law enforcement and military and our police on how to do less lethals and how to help the Federal Bureau of Prisons, how to help with our law enforcement departments and riot control in Minneapolis, New York, the blue cities around the state. So, you know, it's very interesting that that's the approach you take whenever... I actually have lost tremendous amounts of money since I've been in Congress, and guess what?", "word_count": 163, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-001", "start": 1742.09, "end": 1744.41, "text": "Congressman, correct me if I'm wrong.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-002", "start": 1744.49, "end": 1746.65, "text": "You... You're an arms trafficker,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-003", "start": 1746.71, "end": 1748.71, "text": "no? No, I'm not actually.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-004", "start": 1748.79, "end": 1750.37, "text": "I don't actually own a company,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-005", "start": 1750.49, "end": 1752.03, "text": "and I actually have divested a blind trust.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-006", "start": 1752.17, "end": 1754.81, "text": "I'm also the only member of Congress who actually donates 100 %", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-007", "start": 1754.81, "end": 1755.41, "text": "of my salary...", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-008", "start": 1756.05, "end": 1757.19, "text": "Divested into a blind trust?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-009", "start": 1757.41, "end": 1759.31, "text": "Those are contradictory terms.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-010", "start": 1760.01, "end": 1761.85, "text": "If you divest it, you don't own it anymore.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-011", "start": 1762.19, "end": 1765.29, "text": "Do you own an arms -trapping company?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-012", "start": 1766.16, "end": 1767.28, "text": "Look, I don't actually.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-013", "start": 1767.46, "end": 1768.26, "text": "That's the funniest part about this.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-014", "start": 1768.26, "end": 1769.1, "text": "Do you own an arms -trapping company?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-015", "start": 1769.3, "end": 1772.56, "text": "We actually train our law enforcement and military and our police on", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-016", "start": 1772.56, "end": 1774.64, "text": "how to do less lethals and how to help the Federal Bureau", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-017", "start": 1774.64, "end": 1777.06, "text": "of Prisons, how to help with our law enforcement departments and riot", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-018", "start": 1777.06, "end": 1778.9, "text": "control in Minneapolis, New York,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-019", "start": 1778.94, "end": 1780.58, "text": "the blue cities around the state.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-020", "start": 1780.72, "end": 1783.3, "text": "So, you know, it's very interesting that that's the approach you take", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-021", "start": 1783.3, "end": 1785.58, "text": "whenever... I actually have lost tremendous amounts of", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-022", "start": 1785.58, "end": 1786.46, "text": "money since I've been in Congress,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-023", "start": 1786.54, "end": 1786.88, "text": "and guess what?", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "5e40d0983c3d8b5b6c20829c682f906ceb30e0abd0327d934622875eb1aaeaba", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0036", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=1742s", "time_label": "29:02", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0037", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "start": 1786.96, "end": 1828.71, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "That's okay. When I went into the military, I had nothing as well. And I'm just proud to be able to go ahead and serve the American people. And you can keep trying to play your foreign policy economic elementary 101, but the reality is that you can't dispute a single thing that I said about the economics of oil trade. You can't dispute a single thing about what was actually benefiting China. You can't do anything about the Belt and Road Initiative expansion that I talked about. So let's talk on the facts as opposed to ad hominem attacks or some type of a slanderous affront. Did your company sell weapons to Ukraine while you were on the Foreign Relations Committee? No, it didn't, actually. It didn't? There's a lawsuit that claims that it did, that this is not true? You would have to talk to the CEO, because I", "word_count": 151, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-001", "start": 1786.96, "end": 1787.36, "text": "That's okay.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-002", "start": 1787.62, "end": 1788.7, "text": "When I went into the military,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-003", "start": 1788.78, "end": 1789.64, "text": "I had nothing as well.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-004", "start": 1789.78, "end": 1791.56, "text": "And I'm just proud to be able to go ahead and serve", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-005", "start": 1791.56, "end": 1792.36, "text": "the American people.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-006", "start": 1792.54, "end": 1796.04, "text": "And you can keep trying to play your foreign policy economic elementary", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-007", "start": 1796.04, "end": 1799.68, "text": "101, but the reality is that you can't dispute a single thing", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-008", "start": 1799.68, "end": 1801.44, "text": "that I said about the economics of oil trade.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-009", "start": 1801.52, "end": 1804.2, "text": "You can't dispute a single thing about what was actually benefiting China.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-010", "start": 1804.2, "end": 1806.94, "text": "You can't do anything about the Belt and Road Initiative expansion that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-011", "start": 1806.94, "end": 1807.4, "text": "I talked about.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-012", "start": 1807.54, "end": 1810.22, "text": "So let's talk on the facts as opposed to ad hominem attacks", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-013", "start": 1810.22, "end": 1811.88, "text": "or some type of a slanderous affront.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-014", "start": 1814.52, "end": 1818.12, "text": "Did your company sell weapons to Ukraine while you were on the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-015", "start": 1818.12, "end": 1819.8, "text": "Foreign Relations Committee?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-016", "start": 1820.16, "end": 1821.12, "text": "No, it didn't, actually.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-017", "start": 1823.31, "end": 1823.89, "text": "It didn't?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-018", "start": 1823.91, "end": 1825.43, "text": "There's a lawsuit that claims that it did,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-019", "start": 1825.51, "end": 1826.87, "text": "that this is not true?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-020", "start": 1827.03, "end": 1828.39, "text": "You would have to talk to the CEO,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-021", "start": 1828.51, "end": 1828.71, "text": "because I", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "eaca57253af283ca28c36b5323f9e696f45296b23838b6e34a61e7840ec0d4ae", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0037", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=1786s", "time_label": "29:46", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0038", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "start": 1828.71, "end": 1868.3, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "can tell you that when I was there, the only thing that we did was work the U.S. government to help to defeat ISIS, who was in Fallujah and Mosul, who had held that for three -plus years, raping and imprisoning young women, subjugating women, and that I'm very proud of, as well as where we supplied, and even at donations, to all the different law enforcement departments across New York, across Seattle, across Minneapolis, across New York City, across Baltimore, to stop from the riots that was going on, which everyone in the Democrat Party called the Summer of Love. So do you want to talk to your politics about what's actually happening or go to ad hominem attacks? I just wanted people to understand what the conflict is. I also don't buy and sell trade stocks, by the way. I don't own a single stock, just to show you now, unlike many of the others who actually benefit from the U.S.", "word_count": 165, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-001", "start": 1828.71, "end": 1829.79, "text": "can tell you that when I was there,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-002", "start": 1829.83, "end": 1831.43, "text": "the only thing that we did was work the U.S.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-003", "start": 1831.45, "end": 1832.65, "text": "government to help to defeat ISIS,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-004", "start": 1832.83, "end": 1834.29, "text": "who was in Fallujah and Mosul,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-005", "start": 1834.39, "end": 1836.23, "text": "who had held that for three -plus years,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-006", "start": 1836.27, "end": 1837.73, "text": "raping and imprisoning young women,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-007", "start": 1837.91, "end": 1840.15, "text": "subjugating women, and that I'm very proud of,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-008", "start": 1840.19, "end": 1841.17, "text": "as well as where we supplied,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-009", "start": 1841.43, "end": 1844.95, "text": "and even at donations, to all the different law enforcement departments across", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-010", "start": 1844.95, "end": 1846.87, "text": "New York, across Seattle, across Minneapolis,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-011", "start": 1847.03, "end": 1848.75, "text": "across New York City, across Baltimore,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-012", "start": 1848.89, "end": 1850.69, "text": "to stop from the riots that was going on,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-013", "start": 1850.77, "end": 1852.83, "text": "which everyone in the Democrat Party called the Summer of Love.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-014", "start": 1853.37, "end": 1856.09, "text": "So do you want to talk to your politics about what's actually", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-015", "start": 1856.09, "end": 1857.51, "text": "happening or go to ad hominem attacks?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-016", "start": 1859.74, "end": 1861.8, "text": "I just wanted people to understand what the conflict is.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-017", "start": 1861.8, "end": 1863.52, "text": "I also don't buy and sell trade stocks,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-018", "start": 1863.56, "end": 1863.96, "text": "by the way.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-019", "start": 1864.06, "end": 1865.02, "text": "I don't own a single stock,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-020", "start": 1865.16, "end": 1866.04, "text": "just to show you now,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-021", "start": 1866.12, "end": 1867.66, "text": "unlike many of the others who actually", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-022", "start": 1867.66, "end": 1868.3, "text": "benefit from the U.S.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "f74d4d2c8402d25736ce825279adfce3405affc0830ac48b309194559ca5b406", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0038", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=1828s", "time_label": "30:28", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0039", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "start": 1868.3, "end": 1912.14, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "government from Northrop Grumman, from GED, and from others, go look at quantitative analysis and see how many stocks I've traded since I've been in office. Go look at how much I own since I've been in office and before. I don't own a single penny of stock. War doesn't benefit me. I actually prefer not to have war, but the benefits of actually making sure that we understand how this looks at it economically and from a stability and safety and security perspective, I am for, especially as a member of the Foreign Affairs, especially as a proud U.S. Army combat veteran. Okay. Let me ask Ryan just quickly, how do you think this war now plays out from where we are now? I mean, who knows? I think the president is desperate to find a way to end the war. You don't need to be an expert to see that this is", "word_count": 155, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-001", "start": 1868.3, "end": 1869.42, "text": "government from Northrop Grumman, from GED,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-002", "start": 1869.46, "end": 1872.06, "text": "and from others, go look at quantitative analysis and see how many", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-003", "start": 1872.06, "end": 1873.38, "text": "stocks I've traded since I've been in office.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-004", "start": 1873.48, "end": 1875.78, "text": "Go look at how much I own since I've been in office", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-005", "start": 1875.78, "end": 1876.3, "text": "and before.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-006", "start": 1876.5, "end": 1877.86, "text": "I don't own a single penny of stock.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-007", "start": 1878.16, "end": 1879.34, "text": "War doesn't benefit me.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-008", "start": 1879.42, "end": 1880.96, "text": "I actually prefer not to have war,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-009", "start": 1881.12, "end": 1884.16, "text": "but the benefits of actually making sure that we understand how this", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-010", "start": 1884.16, "end": 1886.58, "text": "looks at it economically and from a stability and safety and security", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-011", "start": 1886.58, "end": 1889.72, "text": "perspective, I am for, especially as a member of the Foreign Affairs,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-012", "start": 1889.84, "end": 1890.88, "text": "especially as a proud U.S.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-013", "start": 1890.88, "end": 1891.7, "text": "Army combat veteran.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-014", "start": 1892.16, "end": 1894.4, "text": "Okay. Let me ask Ryan just quickly,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-015", "start": 1894.92, "end": 1897.84, "text": "how do you think this war now plays out from where we", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-016", "start": 1897.84, "end": 1898.12, "text": "are now?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-017", "start": 1898.32, "end": 1903.24, "text": "I mean, who knows?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-018", "start": 1904.14, "end": 1908.28, "text": "I think the president is desperate to find a way to end", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-019", "start": 1908.28, "end": 1908.7, "text": "the war.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-020", "start": 1909.68, "end": 1912.14, "text": "You don't need to be an expert to see that this is", "word_count": 12 } ], "text_sha256": "b5d366d55e064a9151d38632927996ea5110656bcef017fe46234ede6c99286e", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0039", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=1868s", "time_label": "31:08", "tags": [ "exchange", "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0040", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "start": 1912.14, "end": 1971.84, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "a catastrophe for the United States, and it's a catastrophe for the people in Tehran who are seeing, you know, this indiscriminate bombing. There was just a residential building that was triple -tapped. The people of Iran are chanting Javi Shah. They're asking for the Shah to come back. You're telling me millions of people are wrong in Tehran? People in Lebanon, Israel, Israel issued a, an evacuation order to 700,000 people, some of whom, you know, went to the beach. They then bombed them on the beach. This is, it's, the entire situation is horrifying. When he's talking about, you know, geopolitics, China is sitting back, watching the way that the United States military, its Navy and its Air Force, you know, engage with a conventional military. They're taking notes as we exhaust ourselves. I don't, I don't understand who benefits from this beyond Israel who, who wants, as Gideon has said, you know, to see the countries around it reduced in power and engaged in kind of sectarian civil war and collapse.", "word_count": 175, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-001", "start": 1912.14, "end": 1914.14, "text": "a catastrophe for the United States,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-002", "start": 1914.34, "end": 1918.24, "text": "and it's a catastrophe for the people in Tehran who are seeing,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-003", "start": 1918.36, "end": 1920, "text": "you know, this indiscriminate bombing.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-004", "start": 1920.12, "end": 1922.14, "text": "There was just a residential building that was triple -tapped.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-005", "start": 1922.14, "end": 1923.9, "text": "The people of Iran are chanting Javi Shah.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-006", "start": 1924, "end": 1925.88, "text": "They're asking for the Shah to come back.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-007", "start": 1925.96, "end": 1928.58, "text": "You're telling me millions of people are wrong in Tehran?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-008", "start": 1928.7, "end": 1931.6, "text": "People in Lebanon, Israel, Israel issued a,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-009", "start": 1931.6, "end": 1934.34, "text": "an evacuation order to 700,000 people,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-010", "start": 1934.46, "end": 1935.58, "text": "some of whom, you know,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-011", "start": 1935.58, "end": 1936.12, "text": "went to the beach.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-012", "start": 1936.18, "end": 1937.82, "text": "They then bombed them on the beach.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-013", "start": 1937.92, "end": 1940.3, "text": "This is, it's, the entire situation is horrifying.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-014", "start": 1940.64, "end": 1942.38, "text": "When he's talking about, you know,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-015", "start": 1942.38, "end": 1944.56, "text": "geopolitics, China is sitting back,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-016", "start": 1944.6, "end": 1947.48, "text": "watching the way that the United States military,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-017", "start": 1947.88, "end": 1949.08, "text": "its Navy and its Air Force,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-018", "start": 1949.18, "end": 1951.9, "text": "you know, engage with a conventional military.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-019", "start": 1952.14, "end": 1955.4, "text": "They're taking notes as we exhaust ourselves.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-020", "start": 1956.56, "end": 1961.7, "text": "I don't, I don't understand who benefits from this beyond Israel who,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-021", "start": 1961.76, "end": 1964.16, "text": "who wants, as Gideon has said,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-022", "start": 1964.3, "end": 1966.52, "text": "you know, to see the countries", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-023", "start": 1966.52, "end": 1971.22, "text": "around it reduced in power and engaged in kind of sectarian civil", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-024", "start": 1971.22, "end": 1971.84, "text": "war and collapse.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "cdd0b1f0dca4cf803284301c9468b209af5c0daaf0b0db3fd586b205392561ae", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0040", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=1912s", "time_label": "31:52", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0041", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "start": 1973.63, "end": 2030.19, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "Well, let me, let me ask Gideon the same, the same question. Gideon, what do you, what do you think is going to happen here? First of all, it's very hard to foresee because finally it depends mainly on Donald Trump. I still think that if he wishes to put an end to it, he still can even though I agree to the other speakers who said that we are reaching very fast in a point of no return. But he could have stopped it by now and then Israel had to stop even though by the time we are talking the Israeli troops are on the way to Lebanon starting another war which might last much, much, much, much longer. But Israel does not benefit out of it. You mentioned all those who loses. Israel never benefit for any of its wars. If you go backwards ever since 1948, no war brought any good things to Israel.", "word_count": 158, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-001", "start": 1973.63, "end": 1975.61, "text": "Well, let me, let me ask Gideon the same,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-002", "start": 1975.63, "end": 1976.39, "text": "the same question.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-003", "start": 1977.15, "end": 1979.55, "text": "Gideon, what do you, what do you think is going to happen", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-004", "start": 1979.55, "end": 1984.57, "text": "here? First of all, it's very hard to foresee because finally it", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-005", "start": 1984.57, "end": 1986.55, "text": "depends mainly on Donald Trump.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-006", "start": 1986.95, "end": 1990.63, "text": "I still think that if he wishes to put an end to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-007", "start": 1990.63, "end": 1993.55, "text": "it, he still can even though I agree to the other speakers", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-008", "start": 1993.55, "end": 1997.49, "text": "who said that we are reaching very fast in a point of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-009", "start": 1997.49, "end": 1997.95, "text": "no return.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-010", "start": 1998.27, "end": 2001.75, "text": "But he could have stopped it by now and then Israel had", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-011", "start": 2001.75, "end": 2006.03, "text": "to stop even though by the time we are talking the Israeli", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-012", "start": 2006.03, "end": 2010.47, "text": "troops are on the way to Lebanon starting another war which might", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-013", "start": 2010.47, "end": 2013.05, "text": "last much, much, much, much longer.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-014", "start": 2013.27, "end": 2016.03, "text": "But Israel does not benefit out of it.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-015", "start": 2016.15, "end": 2018.83, "text": "You mentioned all those who loses.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-016", "start": 2019.21, "end": 2022.41, "text": "Israel never benefit for any of its wars.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-017", "start": 2022.65, "end": 2022.89, "text": "If you", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-018", "start": 2022.89, "end": 2025.13, "text": "go backwards ever since 1948,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-019", "start": 2025.63, "end": 2030.19, "text": "no war brought any good things to Israel.", "word_count": 8 } ], "text_sha256": "6334042670c2efee547f5d8957833ee62db95f9a4226661acf80da837e302e76", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0041", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=1973s", "time_label": "32:53", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0042", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "start": 2030.47, "end": 2092.35, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "They always brought either immediate losses or losses for the long run like this fatal 1967 war which stacked us with this horrible, damped occupation until this very moment. Wars don't serve interest for the long run and this war will not serve for Israel. Maybe we can all now sell more weapons. No doubt that Israel will sell now much more weapons. We can be very proud on all kind of James Bond operations, assassinations. That's a new hobby of Israel assassinating half of the leadership of the Middle East in Hollywood systems. Really fascinating. But by the end of the day after this all glory will go away, they will ask ourselves, what did we achieve? What did we achieve in two and a half years in Gaza? With 70,000 people killed and 1,000 babies killed, what did Israel achieve? Is it today more secure?", "word_count": 149, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-001", "start": 2030.47, "end": 2036.31, "text": "They always brought either immediate losses or losses for the long run", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-002", "start": 2036.49, "end": 2041.79, "text": "like this fatal 1967 war which stacked us with this horrible,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-003", "start": 2042.03, "end": 2044.95, "text": "damped occupation until this very moment.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-004", "start": 2045.19, "end": 2049.67, "text": "Wars don't serve interest for the long run and this war will", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-005", "start": 2049.67, "end": 2051.09, "text": "not serve for Israel.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-006", "start": 2051.15, "end": 2054.91, "text": "Maybe we can all now sell more weapons.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-007", "start": 2055.07, "end": 2058.49, "text": "No doubt that Israel will sell now much more weapons.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-008", "start": 2058.77, "end": 2062.53, "text": "We can be very proud on all kind of James Bond operations,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-009", "start": 2063.65, "end": 2068.83, "text": "assassinations. That's a new hobby of Israel assassinating half of the leadership", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-010", "start": 2068.83, "end": 2071.69, "text": "of the Middle East in Hollywood systems.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-011", "start": 2072.13, "end": 2073.87, "text": "Really fascinating.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-012", "start": 2074.45, "end": 2079.05, "text": "But by the end of the day after this all glory will", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-013", "start": 2079.05, "end": 2081.05, "text": "go away, they will ask ourselves,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-014", "start": 2081.29, "end": 2082.31, "text": "what did we achieve?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-015", "start": 2082.47, "end": 2084.85, "text": "What did we achieve in two and a half years in Gaza?", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-016", "start": 2085.09, "end": 2088.77, "text": "With 70,000 people killed and 1,000 babies killed,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-017", "start": 2088.93, "end": 2090.35, "text": "what did Israel achieve?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-018", "start": 2090.61, "end": 2091.71, "text": "Is it today", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-019", "start": 2091.71, "end": 2092.35, "text": "more secure?", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "3b4c091c1056044afb3ce62109e6c2f4c27e209afd27c4af0a9affb6dd445328", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0042", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=2030s", "time_label": "33:50", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0043", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "start": 2092.49, "end": 2153.29, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "Is Gaza a more stable place? Is the danger of Gaza smaller or bigger for the long run? Same will be here and I'm very sorry to say it because they always say that I always spoil all those parties. No, it's not a party. It is a war which gets more and more complicated and complicates itself with endless consequences. By the way, Israel is going also to pay enormous price in the United States. The Americans will never forget Israel who they believe pushed the United States to this unnecessary war. And by the end of the day we'll say, oh, this was a mistake. But the next war then will make it because we have to solve it once and for all. And the only once and for all for Israel is the continuous of the occupation. Gideon Levy and my panel, thank you all very much. I appreciate it. Thank you. Well, I'm joined now by Bethel Talabani.", "word_count": 162, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-001", "start": 2092.49, "end": 2094.03, "text": "Is Gaza a more stable place?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-002", "start": 2094.27, "end": 2097.73, "text": "Is the danger of Gaza smaller or bigger for the long run?", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-003", "start": 2098.29, "end": 2101.79, "text": "Same will be here and I'm very sorry to say it because", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-004", "start": 2101.79, "end": 2104.93, "text": "they always say that I always spoil all those parties.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-005", "start": 2105.31, "end": 2106.95, "text": "No, it's not a party.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-006", "start": 2107.13, "end": 2112.37, "text": "It is a war which gets more and more complicated and complicates", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-007", "start": 2112.37, "end": 2115.39, "text": "itself with endless consequences.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-008", "start": 2115.71, "end": 2118.97, "text": "By the way, Israel is going also to pay enormous price in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-009", "start": 2118.97, "end": 2119.85, "text": "the United States.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-010", "start": 2120.01, "end": 2125.25, "text": "The Americans will never forget Israel who they believe pushed the United", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-011", "start": 2125.25, "end": 2127.83, "text": "States to this unnecessary war.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-012", "start": 2128.19, "end": 2130.29, "text": "And by the end of the day we'll say,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-013", "start": 2130.35, "end": 2131.69, "text": "oh, this was a mistake.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-014", "start": 2131.91, "end": 2136.19, "text": "But the next war then will make it because we have to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-015", "start": 2136.19, "end": 2138.21, "text": "solve it once and for all.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-016", "start": 2138.21, "end": 2142.73, "text": "And the only once and for all for Israel is the continuous", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-017", "start": 2142.73, "end": 2143.41, "text": "of the occupation.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-018", "start": 2145.55, "end": 2147.11, "text": "Gideon Levy and my panel,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-019", "start": 2147.19, "end": 2148.03, "text": "thank you all very much.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-020", "start": 2148.07, "end": 2148.63, "text": "I appreciate it.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-021", "start": 2149.1, "end": 2149.78, "text": "Thank you.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-022", "start": 2151.19, "end": 2151.95, "text": "Well, I'm joined", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-023", "start": 2151.95, "end": 2153.29, "text": "now by Bethel Talabani.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "40a1d2690461ac39ea31a0765459ff329a82f8f6ad3e9f3e0ad7438bf014db77", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0043", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=2092s", "time_label": "34:52", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0044", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "start": 2153.41, "end": 2221.53, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "He's the president of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. Mr. Talabani, thank you very much indeed for joining me on Uncensored. I know you spoke to President Trump a few days ago. What is your overview about where we are with this war right now? First of all, my pleasure to be here. Overview of where we are in the war so far is you could argue that many of the U.S. military objectives have been achieved. Severely depleted ability to strike. Government, to an extent, weakened. And also, I believe there's no real capability of any kind of nuclear weapon creation. Having said that, there's still a lot of bombing. The people of Kurdistan are certainly terrified. Iraq is under a lot of pressure. You see what's happening in the Emirates and the Arabic countries. And the Iranian regime doesn't really show any signs of cracking. And also there's been no real, sorry, there's been no real uprising or demonstration or even hints thereof until now.", "word_count": 168, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-001", "start": 2153.41, "end": 2156.17, "text": "He's the president of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-002", "start": 2156.57, "end": 2159.77, "text": "Mr. Talabani, thank you very much indeed for joining me on Uncensored.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-003", "start": 2160.05, "end": 2163.71, "text": "I know you spoke to President Trump a few days ago.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-004", "start": 2164.11, "end": 2167.87, "text": "What is your overview about where we are with this war right", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-005", "start": 2167.87, "end": 2172.66, "text": "now? First of all, my pleasure to be here.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-006", "start": 2173.3, "end": 2177.29, "text": "Overview of where we are in the war so far is you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-007", "start": 2177.29, "end": 2178.89, "text": "could argue that many of the U.S.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-008", "start": 2178.97, "end": 2180.67, "text": "military objectives have been achieved.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-009", "start": 2182.85, "end": 2184.93, "text": "Severely depleted ability to strike.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-010", "start": 2186.23, "end": 2188.33, "text": "Government, to an extent, weakened.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-011", "start": 2188.83, "end": 2193.29, "text": "And also, I believe there's no real capability of any kind of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-012", "start": 2193.29, "end": 2196.03, "text": "nuclear weapon creation.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-013", "start": 2196.37, "end": 2199.75, "text": "Having said that, there's still a lot of bombing.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-014", "start": 2200.19, "end": 2202.29, "text": "The people of Kurdistan are certainly terrified.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-015", "start": 2202.73, "end": 2204.19, "text": "Iraq is under a lot of pressure.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-016", "start": 2204.29, "end": 2207.01, "text": "You see what's happening in the Emirates and the Arabic countries.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-017", "start": 2207.49, "end": 2210.95, "text": "And the Iranian regime doesn't really show any signs of cracking.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-018", "start": 2212.55, "end": 2216.07, "text": "And also there's been no real,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-019", "start": 2216.15, "end": 2216.89, "text": "sorry, there's", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-020", "start": 2216.89, "end": 2221.53, "text": "been no real uprising or demonstration or even hints thereof until now.", "word_count": 12 } ], "text_sha256": "06deda8e4933fade4a0ec33a788e2e361291f24abd8394ad5d83f517b192be37", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0044", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=2153s", "time_label": "35:53", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0045", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "start": 2223.4, "end": 2274.4, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "Yeah, I mean, that's the thing that I've been looking for, which is, you know, where is the rising up of the people? You know, there was a belief that maybe the Kurds were going to lead the rebellion and so on. But of course, I'd imagine that many people, not just the Kurds, but everyone in the civilian population has memories of what happened in January when many thousands of protesters were killed. But secondly, there are bombs raining down all over the country. And that makes even venturing onto the street an extremely dangerous, potentially life -threatening thing to be doing, never mind what the Revolutionary Guard or the other militia may do if they find you there. So, it seems to me the double -pronged threat to people if they do take to the streets is very pronounced right now and the danger is very real.", "word_count": 149, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-001", "start": 2223.4, "end": 2225.86, "text": "Yeah, I mean, that's the thing that I've been looking for,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-002", "start": 2225.92, "end": 2229.08, "text": "which is, you know, where is the rising up of the people?", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-003", "start": 2229.6, "end": 2232.28, "text": "You know, there was a belief that maybe the Kurds were going", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-004", "start": 2232.28, "end": 2233.98, "text": "to lead the rebellion and so on.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-005", "start": 2234.06, "end": 2236.96, "text": "But of course, I'd imagine that many people,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-006", "start": 2237, "end": 2241.64, "text": "not just the Kurds, but everyone in the civilian population has memories", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-007", "start": 2241.64, "end": 2246.8, "text": "of what happened in January when many thousands of protesters were killed.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-008", "start": 2247.08, "end": 2251.52, "text": "But secondly, there are bombs raining down all over the country.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-009", "start": 2251.66, "end": 2256.22, "text": "And that makes even venturing onto the street an extremely dangerous,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-010", "start": 2256.4, "end": 2258.96, "text": "potentially life -threatening thing to be doing,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-011", "start": 2259, "end": 2263.24, "text": "never mind what the Revolutionary Guard or the other militia may do", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-012", "start": 2263.24, "end": 2264.2, "text": "if they find you there.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-013", "start": 2264.34, "end": 2269.32, "text": "So, it seems to me the double -pronged threat to people if", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-014", "start": 2269.32, "end": 2272.84, "text": "they do take to the streets is very pronounced right now and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-015", "start": 2272.84, "end": 2274, "text": "the danger is very", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-016", "start": 2274, "end": 2274.4, "text": "real.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "bf132476f385d4565c66dbcb3bcf8eb66c7976074e55c7de2819b0f601a5c652", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0045", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=2223s", "time_label": "37:03", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0046", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "start": 2274.4, "end": 2341.82, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "I would agree with that, but I would add another prong. I think there's three prongs of concern. One of them is the zip code, the postcode, sorry, that Iran is in. Just look at the recent years, Iran is in. The postcode of Afghanistan, Armenia, Syria, Turkmenistan and Iraq. The Persians are a very well -educated, beautiful people, very old and ancient people. And it's difficult for them to see them going through what these countries around them have gone through. And this is also a real major concern. In fact, last time a lot of the middle class and a lot of the professional class didn't get involved in the negotiations regardless of their political view because of this fear. This fear has not been alleviated at all and it exists in Iraq. If, as at the moment seems more likely than not, the regime remains in place, Donald Trump did talk very early on that he wanted regime change but he made it clear he wanted the people to lead that.", "word_count": 174, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-001", "start": 2274.4, "end": 2276.4, "text": "I would agree with that,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-002", "start": 2276.48, "end": 2277.74, "text": "but I would add another prong.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-003", "start": 2277.9, "end": 2279.8, "text": "I think there's three prongs of concern.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-004", "start": 2280.74, "end": 2282.3, "text": "One of them is the zip code,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-005", "start": 2282.98, "end": 2286.66, "text": "the postcode, sorry, that Iran is in.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-006", "start": 2287.22, "end": 2288.86, "text": "Just look at the recent years,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-007", "start": 2289.04, "end": 2289.8, "text": "Iran is in.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-008", "start": 2289.82, "end": 2292.64, "text": "The postcode of Afghanistan, Armenia,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-009", "start": 2292.96, "end": 2295.96, "text": "Syria, Turkmenistan and Iraq.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-010", "start": 2296.38, "end": 2299, "text": "The Persians are a very well -educated,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-011", "start": 2299.06, "end": 2303.4, "text": "beautiful people, very old and ancient people.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-012", "start": 2303.56, "end": 2308.14, "text": "And it's difficult for them to see them going through what these", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-013", "start": 2308.14, "end": 2309.86, "text": "countries around them have gone through.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-014", "start": 2309.96, "end": 2311.86, "text": "And this is also a real major concern.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-015", "start": 2312.2, "end": 2315.84, "text": "In fact, last time a lot of the middle class and a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-016", "start": 2315.84, "end": 2320.24, "text": "lot of the professional class didn't get involved in the negotiations regardless", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-017", "start": 2320.24, "end": 2322.5, "text": "of their political view because of this fear.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-018", "start": 2322.68, "end": 2325.9, "text": "This fear has not been alleviated at all and it exists in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-019", "start": 2325.9, "end": 2331.58, "text": "Iraq. If, as at the moment seems more likely than not,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-020", "start": 2331.7, "end": 2334.16, "text": "the regime remains in place,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-021", "start": 2334.36, "end": 2337.82, "text": "Donald Trump did talk very early on that he", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-022", "start": 2337.82, "end": 2340.98, "text": "wanted regime change but he made it clear he wanted the people", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-023", "start": 2340.98, "end": 2341.82, "text": "to lead that.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "49c8782596084e0f309b489dc1729ccd84b336300ca7bc26fdab78b301ac1070", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0046", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=2274s", "time_label": "37:54", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0047", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "start": 2342.02, "end": 2412.14, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "If that doesn't happen, can the United States legitimately claim victory? Judging by some of the statements that were made, the initial objectives militarily, I think some of them have been achieved. Victory for Mr. Trump, I think you could argue it either way. My personal opinion is really the sooner the better. Don't underestimate the shock and the damage the assassination of the Supreme Leader has had on the psyche of the country as a whole. I think that shouldn't be underestimated. We're in danger of this becoming like a wound from Excalibur, a wound that never heals. And I think that should be taken into account. There have been reports that Kurdish armed groups who, of course, have fought the Iranian regime for a very long time, operating from bases along the Iraqi border, there are reports that the CIA has been backing some of these groups to launch ground incursions inside Iran.", "word_count": 155, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-001", "start": 2342.02, "end": 2347.06, "text": "If that doesn't happen, can the United States legitimately claim victory?", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-002", "start": 2349.26, "end": 2352.48, "text": "Judging by some of the statements that were made,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-003", "start": 2352.54, "end": 2356.86, "text": "the initial objectives militarily, I think some of them have been achieved.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-004", "start": 2358.72, "end": 2360.06, "text": "Victory for Mr.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-005", "start": 2360.2, "end": 2363.48, "text": "Trump, I think you could argue it either way.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-006", "start": 2363.76, "end": 2368.34, "text": "My personal opinion is really the sooner the better.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-007", "start": 2369.02, "end": 2375.68, "text": "Don't underestimate the shock and the damage the assassination of the Supreme", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-008", "start": 2375.68, "end": 2379.32, "text": "Leader has had on the psyche of the country as a whole.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-009", "start": 2379.82, "end": 2382.96, "text": "I think that shouldn't be underestimated.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-010", "start": 2383.06, "end": 2386.72, "text": "We're in danger of this becoming like a wound from Excalibur,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-011", "start": 2386.88, "end": 2388.76, "text": "a wound that never heals.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-012", "start": 2389, "end": 2391.88, "text": "And I think that should be taken into account.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-013", "start": 2394.19, "end": 2398.07, "text": "There have been reports that Kurdish armed groups who,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-014", "start": 2398.13, "end": 2400.93, "text": "of course, have fought the Iranian regime for a very long time,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-015", "start": 2401.93, "end": 2405.19, "text": "operating from bases along the Iraqi border,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-016", "start": 2405.33, "end": 2408.37, "text": "there are reports that the CIA has been backing", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-017", "start": 2408.37, "end": 2412.14, "text": "some of these groups to launch ground incursions inside Iran.", "word_count": 10 } ], "text_sha256": "f433372081d306f93d7346d97ff1eda2a97e59d8cb15e8c95db74f5c55110bea", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0047", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=2342s", "time_label": "39:02", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0048", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "start": 2412.36, "end": 2468.02, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "Can you say anything about that? I can. This is categorically not the case, at least in this side of Iraqi Kurdistan. Also, please remember the Kurds make up less than 10 % of the Iranian population of 92 million. Of that 10 % of Kurds, more than 60 % of them are actually Shiite. A lot of them are in the administrations, they are in the government, et cetera, et cetera. Of that remaining percentage, how many of them are with these groups, and what would a Kurdish attack on Iran do? For example, Turkey has made it very clear to us that this is completely unacceptable and they have their own legitimate concerns. Then you have the fear of a backlash from the Iranians themselves, who are a proud people and would fear separatism or a splitting of the country. That's why I firmly believe Kurds being tip of the spear is an absolute disaster.", "word_count": 157, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-001", "start": 2412.36, "end": 2413.42, "text": "Can you say anything about that?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-002", "start": 2413.82, "end": 2414.56, "text": "I can.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-003", "start": 2415.06, "end": 2416.96, "text": "This is categorically not the case,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-004", "start": 2417.1, "end": 2419.38, "text": "at least in this side of Iraqi Kurdistan.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-005", "start": 2420.3, "end": 2424.78, "text": "Also, please remember the Kurds make up less than 10 % of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-006", "start": 2424.78, "end": 2427, "text": "the Iranian population of 92 million.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-007", "start": 2427.24, "end": 2429.28, "text": "Of that 10 % of Kurds,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-008", "start": 2429.28, "end": 2432.1, "text": "more than 60 % of them are actually Shiite.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-009", "start": 2432.26, "end": 2434.46, "text": "A lot of them are in the administrations,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-010", "start": 2435.08, "end": 2436.46, "text": "they are in the government,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-011", "start": 2437.14, "end": 2437.98, "text": "et cetera, et cetera.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-012", "start": 2438.32, "end": 2442.08, "text": "Of that remaining percentage, how many of them are with these groups,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-013", "start": 2442.2, "end": 2446.4, "text": "and what would a Kurdish attack on Iran do?", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-014", "start": 2446.58, "end": 2450.36, "text": "For example, Turkey has made it very clear to us that this", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-015", "start": 2450.36, "end": 2453.54, "text": "is completely unacceptable and they have their own legitimate concerns.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-016", "start": 2453.9, "end": 2458.5, "text": "Then you have the fear of a backlash from the Iranians themselves,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-017", "start": 2458.8, "end": 2461.98, "text": "who are a proud people and would fear separatism or a splitting", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-018", "start": 2461.98, "end": 2462.6, "text": "of the country.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-019", "start": 2462.86, "end": 2465.48, "text": "That's why I firmly believe Kurds being tip", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-020", "start": 2465.48, "end": 2468.02, "text": "of the spear is an absolute disaster.", "word_count": 7 } ], "text_sha256": "64804f0649713672a8cd6b174467ffe2050d69219bf4842afa0849168bf486f3", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0048", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=2412s", "time_label": "40:12", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0049", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "start": 2468.28, "end": 2534.56, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "And in my communications, I think there are with the different Kurdish groups. I think a lot of them understand this. And have you made that clear to President Trump directly when you spoke to him? No, the phone call with Mr. Trump didn't really go there. Funnily enough, when I spoke to Mr. Trump, I thought of you because you often mention the other side of him that people don't see. And I really don't think that's true. And I think that this is true. And he genuinely seemed to have caring for Iraq and for the Kurdish people and was obviously grateful to us for the years that we've cooperated militarily, et cetera, et cetera, in the fight against ISIS and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, et cetera. Well, it's interesting you mentioned Saddam Hussein because he watched from his prison cell as your father, Jalla Talabani, became the first elected president of Iraq following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.", "word_count": 162, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-001", "start": 2468.28, "end": 2470.9, "text": "And in my communications, I think there are with the different Kurdish", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-002", "start": 2470.9, "end": 2473.88, "text": "groups. I think a lot of them understand this.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-003", "start": 2475.87, "end": 2478.97, "text": "And have you made that clear to President Trump directly when you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-004", "start": 2478.97, "end": 2479.39, "text": "spoke to him?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-005", "start": 2480.38, "end": 2481.68, "text": "No, the phone call with Mr.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-006", "start": 2481.74, "end": 2482.98, "text": "Trump didn't really go there.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-007", "start": 2484, "end": 2485.56, "text": "Funnily enough, when I spoke to Mr.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-008", "start": 2485.68, "end": 2489.54, "text": "Trump, I thought of you because you often mention the other side", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-009", "start": 2489.54, "end": 2490.88, "text": "of him that people don't see.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-010", "start": 2491.18, "end": 2502.32, "text": "And I really don't think that's true.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-011", "start": 2502.78, "end": 2506.08, "text": "And I think that this is true.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-012", "start": 2506.22, "end": 2509.84, "text": "And he genuinely seemed to have caring for Iraq and for the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-013", "start": 2509.84, "end": 2513.48, "text": "Kurdish people and was obviously grateful to us for the years that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-014", "start": 2513.48, "end": 2515.44, "text": "we've cooperated militarily, et cetera,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-015", "start": 2515.56, "end": 2518.66, "text": "et cetera, in the fight against ISIS and the overthrow of Saddam", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-016", "start": 2518.66, "end": 2519.42, "text": "Hussein, et cetera.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-017", "start": 2520.88, "end": 2524.64, "text": "Well, it's interesting you mentioned Saddam Hussein because he watched from his", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-018", "start": 2524.64, "end": 2526.92, "text": "prison cell as your father,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-019", "start": 2527.02, "end": 2530.22, "text": "Jalla Talabani, became the first elected", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-020", "start": 2530.22, "end": 2534.56, "text": "president of Iraq following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.", "word_count": 9 } ], "text_sha256": "cf6c8936b59acb89f55ab84d8ec5313f5ccea3444d30228399bf678f174c2e79", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0049", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=2468s", "time_label": "41:08", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0050", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "start": 2534.64, "end": 2586, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "What a remarkable moment in history that was. You know, I was editor of the Daily Mirror newspaper in the UK which took a very strong position against that war. And for a very long time, I felt thoroughly vindicated. Somebody did say something interesting this week about Iraq now, that if you look at Iraq now, it is in a much better place now than it has been for a very long time. And you can see that you could argue that even though it's been a very tumultuous journey to get to where it is, that it's been worth the pain. What would you say to that? I would agree with that, actually, Piers. I think that that's an accurate description. When Saddam Hussein forgave everybody in Iraq at one point, except my father, and then when it came to sign his execution, my father wouldn't sign it. He", "word_count": 151, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-001", "start": 2534.64, "end": 2537.52, "text": "What a remarkable moment in history that was.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-002", "start": 2537.8, "end": 2540.28, "text": "You know, I was editor of the Daily Mirror newspaper in the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-003", "start": 2540.28, "end": 2543.5, "text": "UK which took a very strong position against that war.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-004", "start": 2543.7, "end": 2545.64, "text": "And for a very long time,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-005", "start": 2545.76, "end": 2547.64, "text": "I felt thoroughly vindicated.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-006", "start": 2547.8, "end": 2550.86, "text": "Somebody did say something interesting this week about Iraq now,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-007", "start": 2550.98, "end": 2552.74, "text": "that if you look at Iraq now,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-008", "start": 2553.74, "end": 2557.68, "text": "it is in a much better place now than it has been", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-009", "start": 2557.68, "end": 2558.72, "text": "for a very long time.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-010", "start": 2559.04, "end": 2561.9, "text": "And you can see that you could argue that even though it's", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-011", "start": 2561.9, "end": 2565.3, "text": "been a very tumultuous journey to get to where it is,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-012", "start": 2565.36, "end": 2567.58, "text": "that it's been worth the pain.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-013", "start": 2567.96, "end": 2569.18, "text": "What would you say to that?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-014", "start": 2570.22, "end": 2571.54, "text": "I would agree with that,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-015", "start": 2571.56, "end": 2573.04, "text": "actually, Piers.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-016", "start": 2573.2, "end": 2575.4, "text": "I think that that's an accurate description.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-017", "start": 2575.78, "end": 2579.96, "text": "When Saddam Hussein forgave everybody in Iraq at one point,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-018", "start": 2579.98, "end": 2583.98, "text": "except my father, and then when it came to sign his execution,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-019", "start": 2584.3, "end": 2585.6, "text": "my father wouldn't sign it.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-020", "start": 2585.66, "end": 2586, "text": "He", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "04e90d9b780268ca91d2de03ee61a15f230d95a760249f2ceedd2839119703bb", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0050", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=2534s", "time_label": "42:14", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0051", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "start": 2586, "end": 2640.22, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "said, there's been enough blood spilled, but it's taken us 20 years of relentless combat to get to today. And it's been a long time. The Middle East has suffered a lot. Yeah, it has. And it's actually very sad to see it all flaring up in the way that it is now. And I hope common sense does prevail. Mr. Talabani, thank you very much indeed for joining me. I appreciate it. Thank you very much. Thank you. Professor Zhang is a game theorist, best known for his popular Predictive History YouTube channel, where he applies the theory that He predicted that Trump would win the presidency, that Trump would go to war with Iran, and that the U.S. would lose that war. It must have sparked a flurry of interest in both his work and his rather colorful adjacent opinions. Professor Zhang joins me now. Professor Zhang, thank you very much indeed for joining me on Uncensored.", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-001", "start": 2586, "end": 2587.52, "text": "said, there's been enough blood spilled,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-002", "start": 2588.04, "end": 2592.36, "text": "but it's taken us 20 years of relentless combat to get to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-003", "start": 2592.36, "end": 2594.48, "text": "today. And it's been a long time.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-004", "start": 2594.5, "end": 2595.9, "text": "The Middle East has suffered a lot.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-005", "start": 2598.08, "end": 2599.22, "text": "Yeah, it has.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-006", "start": 2599.42, "end": 2603.44, "text": "And it's actually very sad to see it all flaring up in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-007", "start": 2603.44, "end": 2604.24, "text": "the way that it is now.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-008", "start": 2604.3, "end": 2605.9, "text": "And I hope common sense does prevail.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-009", "start": 2606.66, "end": 2608.68, "text": "Mr. Talabani, thank you very much indeed for joining me.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-010", "start": 2608.74, "end": 2609.22, "text": "I appreciate it.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-011", "start": 2609.82, "end": 2610.9, "text": "Thank you very much.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-012", "start": 2610.94, "end": 2611.5, "text": "Thank you.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-013", "start": 2611.8, "end": 2614.04, "text": "Professor Zhang is a game theorist,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-014", "start": 2614.08, "end": 2616.7, "text": "best known for his popular Predictive History YouTube channel,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-015", "start": 2616.86, "end": 2624.72, "text": "where he applies the theory that He predicted that Trump would win", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-016", "start": 2624.72, "end": 2627.1, "text": "the presidency, that Trump would go to war with Iran,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-017", "start": 2627.42, "end": 2628.62, "text": "and that the U.S.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-018", "start": 2628.62, "end": 2629.68, "text": "would lose that war.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-019", "start": 2629.86, "end": 2632.34, "text": "It must have sparked a flurry of interest in both his work", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-020", "start": 2632.34, "end": 2635, "text": "and his rather colorful adjacent opinions.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-021", "start": 2635.34, "end": 2637.06, "text": "Professor Zhang joins me now.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-022", "start": 2637.12, "end": 2640.22, "text": "Professor Zhang, thank you very much indeed for joining me on Uncensored.", "word_count": 12 } ], "text_sha256": "fa4f57bf5c0536e3a488ac0e2be8c4d9aa2ae595b6973629991334a158803b08", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0051", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=2586s", "time_label": "43:06", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0052", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be proven right with the third prediction that Iran ultimately will prevail in this war? Right. So right now, the United States and Iran are fighting a war of attrition. The United States is trying to degrade Iran's military capacity. And Iran is trying to strangle the world economy. And it turns out that Iran is putting a lot of pressure on the GCC. And I think at the end of the day, the United States will be compelled to send ground forces. Once the United States sends in ground forces, there's no turning back. It's all in. The sunk cost fallacy kicks in. It'll be another Vietnam for the United States because the United States is a mountain fortress. And the United States", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-001", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2641.94, "text": "Hi, Piers.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-002", "start": 2643.95, "end": 2648.07, "text": "Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-003", "start": 2648.65, "end": 2651.23, "text": "obviously completely right about two of them.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-004", "start": 2651.29, "end": 2655.23, "text": "And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-005", "start": 2655.53, "end": 2658.81, "text": "Are you confident that you'll be proven right with the third prediction", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-006", "start": 2658.81, "end": 2662.51, "text": "that Iran ultimately will prevail in this war?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-007", "start": 2663.77, "end": 2668.29, "text": "Right. So right now, the United States and Iran are fighting a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-008", "start": 2668.29, "end": 2669.31, "text": "war of attrition.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-009", "start": 2670.39, "end": 2674.41, "text": "The United States is trying to degrade Iran's military capacity.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-010", "start": 2675.25, "end": 2681.77, "text": "And Iran is trying to strangle the world economy.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-011", "start": 2682.03, "end": 2687.17, "text": "And it turns out that Iran is putting a lot of pressure", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-012", "start": 2687.17, "end": 2688.13, "text": "on the GCC.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-013", "start": 2688.63, "end": 2690.41, "text": "And I think at the end of the day,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-014", "start": 2691.01, "end": 2693.99, "text": "the United States will be compelled to send ground forces.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-015", "start": 2694.63, "end": 2696.63, "text": "Once the United States sends in ground forces,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-016", "start": 2696.85, "end": 2697.85, "text": "there's no turning back.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-017", "start": 2698.35, "end": 2699.43, "text": "It's all in.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-018", "start": 2699.95, "end": 2703.13, "text": "The sunk cost fallacy kicks in.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-019", "start": 2703.29, "end": 2707.81, "text": "It'll be another Vietnam for the United States because the United States", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-020", "start": 2707.81, "end": 2708.57, "text": "is a mountain fortress.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-021", "start": 2709.63, "end": 2711.07, "text": "And the United States", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "285008927aef93c134b0ccb09119e8ae0febc7f1b6ebcac25d8a1593c6a8e5e4", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0052", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=2641s", "time_label": "44:01", "tags": [ "exchange", "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0053", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "start": 2711.07, "end": 2775.04, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "right now doesn't have the manpower, the manufacturing capacity, and the political will to fight a long war of attrition on the ground in Iran. Right. So I think because of what you said at the end there, it's highly unlikely that Trump would commit ground forces because he's always pledged not to. And I think he would see the inherent danger of that. So if he doesn't commit ground forces, how do you see this war playing out? Well, right now, if Trump doesn't commit ground troops, he does have a variety of options. The first option is just to simply declare victory and call it a day. Unfortunately, the problem with that is that U.S. bases are still exposed. The G.C. economies are still under pressure. The Sharia Hummus is still closed. Iran is in peace negotiations. Iran feels as though it has the upper hand because it has the political will and the resources to draw this war out.", "word_count": 164, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-001", "start": 2711.07, "end": 2712.65, "text": "right now doesn't have the manpower,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-002", "start": 2712.97, "end": 2718.21, "text": "the manufacturing capacity, and the political will to fight a long war", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-003", "start": 2718.21, "end": 2719.91, "text": "of attrition on the ground in Iran.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-004", "start": 2721.62, "end": 2724.68, "text": "Right. So I think because of what you said at the end", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-005", "start": 2724.68, "end": 2728.84, "text": "there, it's highly unlikely that Trump would commit ground forces because he's", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-006", "start": 2728.84, "end": 2729.9, "text": "always pledged not to.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-007", "start": 2730, "end": 2732.7, "text": "And I think he would see the inherent danger of that.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-008", "start": 2732.86, "end": 2734.7, "text": "So if he doesn't commit ground forces,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-009", "start": 2735.22, "end": 2737.22, "text": "how do you see this war playing out?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-010", "start": 2738.44, "end": 2742.88, "text": "Well, right now, if Trump doesn't commit ground troops,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-011", "start": 2743.14, "end": 2744.94, "text": "he does have a variety of options.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-012", "start": 2745.52, "end": 2751.42, "text": "The first option is just to simply declare victory and call it", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-013", "start": 2751.42, "end": 2751.82, "text": "a day.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-014", "start": 2752.64, "end": 2755.66, "text": "Unfortunately, the problem with that is that U.S.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-015", "start": 2755.66, "end": 2757.1, "text": "bases are still exposed.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-016", "start": 2757.46, "end": 2758.12, "text": "The G.C.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-017", "start": 2758.16, "end": 2759.7, "text": "economies are still under pressure.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-018", "start": 2759.94, "end": 2761.78, "text": "The Sharia Hummus is still closed.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-019", "start": 2765.22, "end": 2766.48, "text": "Iran is in peace negotiations.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-020", "start": 2767.12, "end": 2770.86, "text": "Iran feels as though it has the upper hand because it has", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-021", "start": 2770.86, "end": 2773.92, "text": "the political will and the resources to", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-022", "start": 2773.92, "end": 2775.04, "text": "draw this war out.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "37dac2b29d004c26530f4f6d2053febf2a5b6123b45c4351b7819f979da26d7f", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0053", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=2711s", "time_label": "45:11", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0054", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "start": 2775.26, "end": 2850.16, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "Now, let's assume that Trump does withdraw from the Middle East. And what happens is that the G.C.C. nations of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, now are going to Iran because they supply the world with their oil for the Sharia Hummus. Twenty percent of the world's oil flows for the Sharia Hummus. But in return, they get food. So the G.C.C. nations import anywhere from 80 to 90 percent of their food from overseas. And so basically, the center of gravity shifts from the petrodollar to whatever financial system that Iran wants to focus on. And it could be brakes, it could be gold, it could be anything. But remember, the problem with that is that the U.S. economy is a Ponzi scheme. It's dependent on the G.C.C. investing in A.I. and tech stocks and startups like Uber and today's U.S. economy could face collapse", "word_count": 156, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-001", "start": 2775.26, "end": 2779.98, "text": "Now, let's assume that Trump does withdraw from the Middle East.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-002", "start": 2780.14, "end": 2783.36, "text": "And what happens is that the G.C.C.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-003", "start": 2783.78, "end": 2786.28, "text": "nations of Saudi Arabia, Iran,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-004", "start": 2787.16, "end": 2798.62, "text": "Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, now are going to Iran because they supply the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-005", "start": 2798.62, "end": 2800.6, "text": "world with their oil for the Sharia Hummus.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-006", "start": 2800.9, "end": 2803.32, "text": "Twenty percent of the world's oil flows for the Sharia Hummus.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-007", "start": 2803.56, "end": 2805.46, "text": "But in return, they get food.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-008", "start": 2805.6, "end": 2806.68, "text": "So the G.C.C.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-009", "start": 2806.68, "end": 2811.58, "text": "nations import anywhere from 80 to 90 percent of their food from", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-010", "start": 2811.58, "end": 2817.92, "text": "overseas. And so basically, the center of gravity shifts from the petrodollar", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-011", "start": 2817.92, "end": 2822.9, "text": "to whatever financial system that Iran wants to focus on.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-012", "start": 2823.02, "end": 2823.82, "text": "And it could be brakes,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-013", "start": 2823.98, "end": 2825.66, "text": "it could be gold, it could be anything.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-014", "start": 2825.92, "end": 2829.2, "text": "But remember, the problem with that is that the U.S.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-015", "start": 2829.24, "end": 2830.72, "text": "economy is a Ponzi scheme.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-016", "start": 2830.84, "end": 2833.56, "text": "It's dependent on the G.C.C.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-017", "start": 2833.56, "end": 2834.98, "text": "investing in A.I.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-018", "start": 2835.26, "end": 2849, "text": "and tech stocks and startups like Uber and today's U.S.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-019", "start": 2849.04, "end": 2850.16, "text": "economy could face collapse", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "37cef0daf623722c1ab6635156c457da69f5102b2426a3015cb2798389b9ea15", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0054", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=2775s", "time_label": "46:15", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0055", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "start": 2850.16, "end": 2916.87, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": ". And this means that these young men could not afford their own offense anymore and this could lead to a revolution in the streets. So the consequences for America were dire if America were to retreat from the Middle East. RE Shadowожу the key part of all this sort of economic strangulation if you like by Iran is the uh the successor to ayatollah khomeini his son um has come out and apparently we haven't seen him or heard from him directly but there's a statement in which he talks about keeping the strait of almost closed indefinitely if that was to happen what would be the consequences for the global economy and how soon would we see those consequences well i mean the consequence would be dire because cheap energy cheap petroleum products are the very basis of the global modern economy so it just wouldn't be jet fuel that would be affected but also be food because", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-001", "start": 2850.16, "end": 2854.48, "text": ". And this means that these young men could not afford their", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-002", "start": 2854.48, "end": 2857.54, "text": "own offense anymore and this could lead to a revolution in the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-003", "start": 2857.54, "end": 2862.76, "text": "streets. So the consequences for America were dire if America were to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-004", "start": 2862.76, "end": 2863.66, "text": "retreat from the Middle East.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-005", "start": 2866.28, "end": 2871.62, "text": "RE Shadowожу the key part of all this sort of economic strangulation", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-006", "start": 2871.62, "end": 2881.4, "text": "if you like by Iran is the uh the successor to ayatollah", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-007", "start": 2881.4, "end": 2885.28, "text": "khomeini his son um has come out and apparently we haven't seen", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-008", "start": 2885.28, "end": 2888.44, "text": "him or heard from him directly but there's a statement in which", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-009", "start": 2888.44, "end": 2893.62, "text": "he talks about keeping the strait of almost closed indefinitely if that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-010", "start": 2893.62, "end": 2898.14, "text": "was to happen what would be the consequences for the global economy", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-011", "start": 2898.14, "end": 2903.75, "text": "and how soon would we see those consequences well i mean the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-012", "start": 2903.75, "end": 2908.71, "text": "consequence would be dire because cheap energy cheap petroleum products are the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-013", "start": 2908.71, "end": 2913.15, "text": "very basis of the global modern economy so it just wouldn't be", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0055-chunk-014", "start": 2913.15, "end": 2916.87, "text": "jet fuel that would be affected but also be food because", "word_count": 11 } ], "text_sha256": "084dca92bd1e2dba8dc337836d5be855794bf44934c858a234d4ee90922389f0", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0055", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=2850s", "time_label": "47:30", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0056", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "start": 2916.87, "end": 2981.87, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "remember food is produced by fertilizer which comes from the gcc as well as sulfuric acid which which is which helps the process of semiconductor production so artificial intelligence uh food production uh global travel are all dependent on products from the gcc um it's only been two weeks that the ship has been closed for almost two weeks now and already we're seeing um high oil prices um surpassing 100 a barrel iran says that they want to move it to 200 a barrel which signals that they want the ship whom was closed for uh months now remember even if iran would open up the ship who moves it would take weeks before production continues so um i think we've for the global economy i think we've reached the point of no return and and in the future global economies have to commit to a bit of de -industrialization and even mercantilism in order to survive future shocks", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-001", "start": 2916.87, "end": 2924.11, "text": "remember food is produced by fertilizer which comes from the gcc as", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-002", "start": 2924.11, "end": 2928.95, "text": "well as sulfuric acid which which is which helps the process of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-003", "start": 2928.95, "end": 2935.57, "text": "semiconductor production so artificial intelligence uh food production uh global travel are", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-004", "start": 2935.57, "end": 2940.31, "text": "all dependent on products from the gcc um it's only been two", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-005", "start": 2940.31, "end": 2944.71, "text": "weeks that the ship has been closed for almost two weeks now", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-006", "start": 2944.71, "end": 2950.19, "text": "and already we're seeing um high oil prices um surpassing 100 a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-007", "start": 2950.19, "end": 2953.35, "text": "barrel iran says that they want to move it to 200 a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-008", "start": 2953.35, "end": 2957.29, "text": "barrel which signals that they want the ship whom was closed for", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-009", "start": 2957.29, "end": 2961.81, "text": "uh months now remember even if iran would open up the ship", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-010", "start": 2961.81, "end": 2967.11, "text": "who moves it would take weeks before production continues so um i", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-011", "start": 2967.11, "end": 2970.23, "text": "think we've for the global economy i think we've reached the point", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-012", "start": 2970.23, "end": 2975.37, "text": "of no return and and in the future global economies have to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-013", "start": 2975.37, "end": 2979.97, "text": "commit to a bit of de -industrialization and even mercantilism in order", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-014", "start": 2979.97, "end": 2981.87, "text": "to survive future shocks", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "61fe59a124a0ffdaec0b038c6441d668593b99639f393b9d4503e38e55aeb88d", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0056", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=2916s", "time_label": "48:36", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0057", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "start": 2981.87, "end": 3045.64, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "so if you go to southeast asia vietnam and thailand have already ordered the government workers to work from home in order to save fuel you've pointed out that the gulf corporation has been a very successful market for the gcc in terms of the the gcc's uh the gcc council uh monarchies the gcc as you've alluded to several times here are structurally unusual states because they're propped up by oil desalination that they don't have their own water supply naturally and american protection uh you say correctly they were built in open desert with no food security as you said 80 imported no water security the desalination cohesion in places like dubai for example 90 percent of the population are expats and no independent security architecture reliant on the us who have bases obviously in many of the states there if you put all this together is what's happening now in terms of the tactics that iran are", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-001", "start": 2981.87, "end": 2985.75, "text": "so if you go to southeast asia vietnam and thailand have already", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-002", "start": 2985.75, "end": 2989.09, "text": "ordered the government workers to work from home in order to save", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-003", "start": 2989.09, "end": 2996.44, "text": "fuel you've pointed out that the gulf corporation has been a very", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-004", "start": 2996.44, "end": 2996.44, "text": "successful market for the gcc in terms of the the gcc's uh", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-005", "start": 2996.44, "end": 2999.6, "text": "the gcc council uh monarchies the gcc as you've alluded to several", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-006", "start": 2999.6, "end": 3004.76, "text": "times here are structurally unusual states because they're propped up by oil", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-007", "start": 3004.76, "end": 3009.2, "text": "desalination that they don't have their own water supply naturally and american", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-008", "start": 3009.2, "end": 3014.64, "text": "protection uh you say correctly they were built in open desert with", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-009", "start": 3014.64, "end": 3019.46, "text": "no food security as you said 80 imported no water security the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-010", "start": 3019.46, "end": 3030.08, "text": "desalination cohesion in places like dubai for example 90 percent of the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-011", "start": 3030.08, "end": 3035.1, "text": "population are expats and no independent security architecture reliant on the us", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-012", "start": 3035.1, "end": 3039.52, "text": "who have bases obviously in many of the states there if you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-013", "start": 3039.52, "end": 3043.98, "text": "put all this together is what's happening now in terms of the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0057-chunk-014", "start": 3043.98, "end": 3045.64, "text": "tactics that iran are", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "e27321bc33e057fcbe6645793e51e9878362ff43b3f835687cd5bee002444d7e", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0057", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=2981s", "time_label": "49:41", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0058", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "start": 3045.64, "end": 3114.41, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "deploying uh including the threats to desalination um but also targeting obviously targeted hotels and uh an airport and so on going to the heart of what the states there would like to see as the future of their economy which is tourism sport entertainment clearly designed to scare people away from that is this now representing an existential threat do you think to the business model of the gcc states going forward right so the most vulnerable city and and often the most glamorous city in the gcc is dubai and um for many years dubai has been very successful in cultivating an image as the new city of london as new hong kong of the middle east and thousands of these millionaires flock to dubai for the glamorous lifestyle as well as the tax -free aspect of the city but the reality is that um this was all premised on global peace on pax americana on the capacity", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-001", "start": 3045.64, "end": 3052.24, "text": "deploying uh including the threats to desalination um but also targeting obviously", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-002", "start": 3053.18, "end": 3057.38, "text": "targeted hotels and uh an airport and so on going to the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-003", "start": 3057.38, "end": 3060.44, "text": "heart of what the states there would like to see as the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-004", "start": 3060.44, "end": 3065.38, "text": "future of their economy which is tourism sport entertainment clearly designed to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-005", "start": 3065.38, "end": 3070.32, "text": "scare people away from that is this now representing an existential threat", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-006", "start": 3070.32, "end": 3076.1, "text": "do you think to the business model of the gcc states going", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-007", "start": 3076.1, "end": 3083.21, "text": "forward right so the most vulnerable city and and often the most", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-008", "start": 3083.21, "end": 3089.05, "text": "glamorous city in the gcc is dubai and um for many years", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-009", "start": 3089.05, "end": 3093.93, "text": "dubai has been very successful in cultivating an image as the new", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-010", "start": 3093.93, "end": 3097.57, "text": "city of london as new hong kong of the middle east and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-011", "start": 3097.57, "end": 3103.17, "text": "thousands of these millionaires flock to dubai for the glamorous lifestyle as", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-012", "start": 3103.17, "end": 3107.87, "text": "well as the tax -free aspect of the city but the reality", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-013", "start": 3107.87, "end": 3112.47, "text": "is that um this was all premised on global peace on pax", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0058-chunk-014", "start": 3112.47, "end": 3114.41, "text": "americana on the capacity", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "e64d6c91bbe7f2b60051e8ef92ff8ff05143659d98b9ae8a4126b0614463ea18", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0058", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=3045s", "time_label": "50:45", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0059", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "start": 3114.41, "end": 3176.61, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "of america to project around the world and provide security guarantees uh to the gcc now this aura of inviability and invincibility of american empire has been shattered and once an illusion is shattered there's actually no coming back from this and that's what people don't really appreciate about this war this war is not directed not just directed at israel this war is not directed just at the gcc and the illusion of american empire this war is directed at american empire itself and what people don't appreciate is the eschatology eschatological aspects of this war in that iran sees um it sees a moral duty a moral imperative from god to destroy the great satan which is the american empire and the base of the other american empire of course is the global economy right um at the heart of the heart and the head of the american economy is the president of the united states you've argued", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-001", "start": 3114.41, "end": 3119.65, "text": "of america to project around the world and provide security guarantees uh", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-002", "start": 3119.65, "end": 3126.05, "text": "to the gcc now this aura of inviability and invincibility of american", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-003", "start": 3126.05, "end": 3129.71, "text": "empire has been shattered and once an illusion is shattered there's actually", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-004", "start": 3129.71, "end": 3133.81, "text": "no coming back from this and that's what people don't really appreciate", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-005", "start": 3133.81, "end": 3137.77, "text": "about this war this war is not directed not just directed at", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-006", "start": 3137.77, "end": 3141.83, "text": "israel this war is not directed just at the gcc and the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-007", "start": 3141.83, "end": 3146.67, "text": "illusion of american empire this war is directed at american empire itself", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-008", "start": 3147.19, "end": 3152.03, "text": "and what people don't appreciate is the eschatology eschatological aspects of this", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-009", "start": 3152.03, "end": 3156.67, "text": "war in that iran sees um it sees a moral duty a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-010", "start": 3156.67, "end": 3160.33, "text": "moral imperative from god to destroy the great satan which is the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-011", "start": 3160.33, "end": 3163.99, "text": "american empire and the base of the other american empire of course", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-012", "start": 3163.99, "end": 3171.27, "text": "is the global economy right um at the heart of the heart", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-013", "start": 3171.27, "end": 3174.53, "text": "and the head of the american economy is the president of the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0059-chunk-014", "start": 3174.53, "end": 3176.61, "text": "united states you've argued", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "0180d6bd90eeabbd511f2c5abef46a63875de308b043dd08323447dca2e525c1", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0059", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=3114s", "time_label": "51:54", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0060", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "start": 3176.61, "end": 3248.21, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "that trump is not the most powerful person in america and you've inferred that actually the real power base is israel explain that right so actually don't say the real power base is um israel what i say is that the real power base are a collection of six societies that have an eschatological view of this war and these societies include um the freemasons the rosicrucians and the knights templars uh they include um jewish organizations called the sephatin frankis uh who are embedded in uh religious movements called uh chabit lupovich um and then you have the jesuits you have a collection of six societies and um they believe that a war in the middle east would start a process that would culminate in the end times and return of jesus the arrival of the jewish messiah one world government. They have different eschatologies, but a lot of their timeframes do align. So where they converge is that there has to be a war in the Middle East to kick things off.", "word_count": 174, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-001", "start": 3176.61, "end": 3181.57, "text": "that trump is not the most powerful person in america and you've", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-002", "start": 3181.57, "end": 3187.31, "text": "inferred that actually the real power base is israel explain that right", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-003", "start": 3188.33, "end": 3193.33, "text": "so actually don't say the real power base is um israel what", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-004", "start": 3193.33, "end": 3196.45, "text": "i say is that the real power base are a collection of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-005", "start": 3196.45, "end": 3201.85, "text": "six societies that have an eschatological view of this war and these", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-006", "start": 3201.85, "end": 3207.41, "text": "societies include um the freemasons the rosicrucians and the knights templars uh", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-007", "start": 3207.41, "end": 3212.43, "text": "they include um jewish organizations called the sephatin frankis uh who are", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-008", "start": 3212.43, "end": 3217.97, "text": "embedded in uh religious movements called uh chabit lupovich um and then", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-009", "start": 3217.97, "end": 3221.93, "text": "you have the jesuits you have a collection of six societies and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-010", "start": 3221.93, "end": 3226.81, "text": "um they believe that a war in the middle east would start", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-011", "start": 3226.81, "end": 3230.89, "text": "a process that would culminate in the end times and return of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-012", "start": 3230.89, "end": 3236.07, "text": "jesus the arrival of the jewish messiah one world government.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-013", "start": 3236.29, "end": 3241.77, "text": "They have different eschatologies, but a lot of their timeframes do align.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-014", "start": 3242.53, "end": 3245.21, "text": "So where they converge is that", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-015", "start": 3245.21, "end": 3247.69, "text": "there has to be a war in the Middle East to kick", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0060-chunk-016", "start": 3247.69, "end": 3248.21, "text": "things off.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "d5ecb0bba11aed329b080a8c3181251d55d15feaefba2ef0ead6f09652b81df8", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0060", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=3176s", "time_label": "52:56", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0061", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "start": 3248.43, "end": 3304.97, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "This war in the Middle East will lead to the defeat of the American Empire, and this will lead to the culmination of the Greater Israel Project, where Israel is able to control the Middle East from the Nile to the Euphrates. Once the Greater Israel Project is in place, it will transform into the Pax Judaica, which is an AI surveillance state. This will eventually lead to the War of Gog and Magog, the destruction of the Al -Azhar Mosque and the building of the Third Temple, the return of the Jewish diaspora to Jerusalem, and the arrival of the Jewish Messiah or the Antichrist. So they have the script scripted out. And unfortunately, a lot of world events are conforming to this script. Right. I mean, a lot of people say a lot of what you've just said is a load of fantastical baloney and driven by anti -Semitic tropes.", "word_count": 152, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-001", "start": 3248.43, "end": 3251.61, "text": "This war in the Middle East will lead to the defeat of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-002", "start": 3251.61, "end": 3254.81, "text": "the American Empire, and this will lead to the culmination of the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-003", "start": 3254.81, "end": 3259.29, "text": "Greater Israel Project, where Israel is able to control the Middle East", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-004", "start": 3259.29, "end": 3261.09, "text": "from the Nile to the Euphrates.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-005", "start": 3262.09, "end": 3264.39, "text": "Once the Greater Israel Project is in place,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-006", "start": 3264.39, "end": 3266.69, "text": "it will transform into the Pax Judaica,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-007", "start": 3266.93, "end": 3268.85, "text": "which is an AI surveillance state.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-008", "start": 3269.73, "end": 3272.49, "text": "This will eventually lead to the War of Gog and Magog,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-009", "start": 3272.73, "end": 3276.05, "text": "the destruction of the Al -Azhar Mosque and the building of the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-010", "start": 3276.05, "end": 3281.29, "text": "Third Temple, the return of the Jewish diaspora to Jerusalem,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-011", "start": 3281.71, "end": 3286.77, "text": "and the arrival of the Jewish Messiah or the Antichrist.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-012", "start": 3286.97, "end": 3289.09, "text": "So they have the script scripted out.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-013", "start": 3289.33, "end": 3293.77, "text": "And unfortunately, a lot of world events are conforming to this script.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-014", "start": 3295.93, "end": 3298.31, "text": "Right. I mean, a lot of people say a lot of what", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-015", "start": 3298.31, "end": 3302.03, "text": "you've just said is a load of fantastical baloney", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0061-chunk-016", "start": 3302.03, "end": 3304.97, "text": "and driven by anti -Semitic tropes.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "37a2dc3ed5c5c4fb8e5277841bfdebb70060e793074cf7bf659dc6db56b5a537", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0061", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=3248s", "time_label": "54:08", "tags": [ "answer", "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0062", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "start": 3304.99, "end": 3368.88, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "What do you say to that? Look, I completely sympathize with this argument. Five years ago, I would have said the same thing about this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm going to throw some theories out there. And then based on these theories, I'm going to extrapolate into the future and see what the predictions are. If these predictions are correct, then my theories ought to have some legitimacy. Now, when I teach, I don't engage in historical analysis. I engage in speculative analysis. And so in 2024, two years ago, I did say that this war in Iran would happen, and I provided a lot of my analysis. And a part of my analysis that's very important is the eschatological analysis, meaning that Christian Zionists control the United States. There's a preacher called John Hagee who runs an organization called Christians United for Israel, which has about 7 million members.", "word_count": 161, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-001", "start": 3304.99, "end": 3305.75, "text": "What do you say to that?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-002", "start": 3306.84, "end": 3310.48, "text": "Look, I completely sympathize with this argument.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-003", "start": 3310.8, "end": 3315.08, "text": "Five years ago, I would have said the same thing about this", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-004", "start": 3315.08, "end": 3316.54, "text": "sort of argument and thinking.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-005", "start": 3316.78, "end": 3319.34, "text": "So what I do is predictive modeling,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-006", "start": 3319.62, "end": 3323.32, "text": "meaning that I'm going to throw some theories out there.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-007", "start": 3323.56, "end": 3325.06, "text": "And then based on these theories,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-008", "start": 3325.16, "end": 3327.9, "text": "I'm going to extrapolate into the future and see what the predictions", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-009", "start": 3327.9, "end": 3330.24, "text": "are. If these predictions are correct,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-010", "start": 3330.54, "end": 3334.32, "text": "then my theories ought to have some legitimacy.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-011", "start": 3334.86, "end": 3339.12, "text": "Now, when I teach, I don't engage in historical analysis.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-012", "start": 3339.48, "end": 3342.52, "text": "I engage in speculative analysis.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-013", "start": 3343.14, "end": 3345.18, "text": "And so in 2024, two years ago,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-014", "start": 3345.32, "end": 3349.62, "text": "I did say that this war in Iran would happen,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-015", "start": 3349.76, "end": 3351.88, "text": "and I provided a lot of my analysis.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-016", "start": 3352.18, "end": 3355.44, "text": "And a part of my analysis that's very important is the eschatological", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-017", "start": 3355.44, "end": 3359.94, "text": "analysis, meaning that Christian Zionists control the United States.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-018", "start": 3360.04, "end": 3365.86, "text": "There's a preacher called John Hagee who runs an organization called Christians", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-019", "start": 3365.86, "end": 3366.44, "text": "United for", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0062-chunk-020", "start": 3366.44, "end": 3368.88, "text": "Israel, which has about 7 million members.", "word_count": 7 } ], "text_sha256": "574fe48232f29555b32d7f19341d2e5605d56d60c3d9568e88838237571f75ed", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0062", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=3304s", "time_label": "55:04", "tags": [ "answer", "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0063", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "start": 3369.66, "end": 3426.3, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "Christian Zionists are heavily embedded in the national security apparatus and in the Pentagon. There's reporting that US commanders have told their troops that this is a war to bring back Jesus. And so I think that's important. And to be not afraid. So that's my argument. I don't want to believe this, but because this war in Iran is happening, I'm forced to conclude that some of my speculative analysis has validity. Otherwise, it would be very hard. To be honest, I think the word speculation doesn't quite do it justice. I mean, look, there's no doubt your predictions so far have been proven to be uncannily accurate. In relation to Trump winning and then going to war with Iran. But I think the idea that this is all part of a plot to bring back Jesus Christ, look, there might be some people out there that carry such a phrase.", "word_count": 152, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-001", "start": 3369.66, "end": 3375.62, "text": "Christian Zionists are heavily embedded in the national security apparatus and in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-002", "start": 3375.62, "end": 3376.18, "text": "the Pentagon.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-003", "start": 3376.48, "end": 3381.7, "text": "There's reporting that US commanders have told their troops that this is", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-004", "start": 3381.7, "end": 3383.24, "text": "a war to bring back Jesus.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-005", "start": 3383.96, "end": 3384.32, "text": "And so I think that's important.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-006", "start": 3384.34, "end": 3385.3, "text": "And to be not afraid.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-007", "start": 3385.58, "end": 3387.32, "text": "So that's my argument.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-008", "start": 3387.46, "end": 3389.98, "text": "I don't want to believe this,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-009", "start": 3390.14, "end": 3392.84, "text": "but because this war in Iran is happening,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-010", "start": 3393.1, "end": 3398.38, "text": "I'm forced to conclude that some of my speculative analysis has validity.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-011", "start": 3400.12, "end": 3401.04, "text": "Otherwise, it would be very hard.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-012", "start": 3401.44, "end": 3406.8, "text": "To be honest, I think the word speculation doesn't quite do it", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-013", "start": 3406.8, "end": 3410.66, "text": "justice. I mean, look, there's no doubt your predictions so far have", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-014", "start": 3410.66, "end": 3413.34, "text": "been proven to be uncannily accurate.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-015", "start": 3413.34, "end": 3417.12, "text": "In relation to Trump winning and then going to war with Iran.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-016", "start": 3417.46, "end": 3420.48, "text": "But I think the idea that this is all part of a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-017", "start": 3420.48, "end": 3422.02, "text": "plot to bring back Jesus Christ,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-018", "start": 3422.2, "end": 3425.88, "text": "look, there might be some people out there that carry such a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0063-chunk-019", "start": 3425.88, "end": 3426.3, "text": "phrase.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "5be956f431e2325d56eb1d969dd5090de8260af28471a8c92141a40692f3c542", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0063", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=3369s", "time_label": "56:09", "tags": [ "answer", "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0064", "source_ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "start": 3426.3, "end": 3469.51, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "I think it's highly unlikely, unless any evidence emerges to the contrary, that they are current commanders in the United States military. But Professor Zhang, you have a big following. Lots of people are interested in your predictive analysis. It's good to have you on Uncensored. Thank you very much. Thanks, Piers. Piers Morgan Uncensored is proudly independent. The only boss around here is me. To enjoy our show, we ask for only one simple thing. Hit subscribe on YouTube and follow Piers Morgan Uncensored on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. And in return, we will continue our mission to inform, irritate, and entertain. And we'll do it all for free. Independent, uncensored media has never been more critical, and we couldn't do it without you.", "word_count": 125, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-001", "start": 3426.3, "end": 3430.38, "text": "I think it's highly unlikely, unless any evidence emerges to the contrary,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-002", "start": 3430.52, "end": 3433.24, "text": "that they are current commanders in the United States military.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-003", "start": 3433.92, "end": 3435.74, "text": "But Professor Zhang, you have a big following.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-004", "start": 3435.84, "end": 3438.36, "text": "Lots of people are interested in your predictive analysis.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-005", "start": 3438.98, "end": 3440.24, "text": "It's good to have you on Uncensored.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-006", "start": 3440.3, "end": 3440.94, "text": "Thank you very much.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-007", "start": 3441.87, "end": 3442.49, "text": "Thanks, Piers.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-008", "start": 3445.23, "end": 3446.55, "text": "Piers Morgan Uncensored is proudly independent.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-009", "start": 3446.87, "end": 3448.35, "text": "The only boss around here is me.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-010", "start": 3448.61, "end": 3451.75, "text": "To enjoy our show, we ask for only one simple thing.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-011", "start": 3451.95, "end": 3456.85, "text": "Hit subscribe on YouTube and follow Piers Morgan Uncensored on Spotify and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-012", "start": 3456.85, "end": 3457.93, "text": "Apple Podcasts.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-013", "start": 3457.93, "end": 3460.43, "text": "And in return, we will continue our mission to inform,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-014", "start": 3461.19, "end": 3462.17, "text": "irritate, and entertain.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-015", "start": 3462.47, "end": 3463.95, "text": "And we'll do it all for free.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-016", "start": 3464.45, "end": 3467.29, "text": "Independent, uncensored media has never been more critical,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0064-chunk-017", "start": 3467.43, "end": 3469.51, "text": "and we couldn't do it without you.", "word_count": 7 } ], "text_sha256": "6897797c96610dd1494aa5ce6d35bb7cd48084d8a290b2852df7d4b6006aab4a", "episode_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/", "transcript_url": "/interviews/interview-obqsun0g0u4/transcript/#seg-0064", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQsUn0G0U4&t=3426s", "time_label": "57:06", "tags": [ "exchange" ] } ], "interactions": [ { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Piers Morgan opens by condemning the school strike, mocking triumphalist war rhetoric, and arguing that Iran can count mere regime survival as victory while U.S.-Israeli victory remains strategically ambiguous.", "speaker_attribution": "Piers Morgan", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.05, "end": 50.27, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "As the father of four daughters and hearing a missile hit a school, if it's true, everyone should apologize. Like, look, we can figure out who did it later. This is a result of our conflict. Are you confident that you'l..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 50.35, "end": 95.56, "time_label": "0:50", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "He's never met a war that he doesn't love. And he just gets giddy, excited like a guy who's going to make a bunch of money when we bomb a bunch of people because that's what he does. President Bush. Bush famously landed..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 96.67, "end": 148.9, "time_label": "1:36", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "And as we take decisive action to stop the threat posed by the terrorist regime in Iran with Operation Epic Fury. Is that a great name? Well, it's only good if you win. You know, you can only do it. And we've won. Let m..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 149, "end": 195.743, "time_label": "2:29", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "If the regime survives with its autonomy, Iran will claim victory. Victory for the United States and Israel is a lot more complicated. Many roads do seem to lead to a new Iran, which is a lot like the old Iran, but even..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 195.743, "end": 250.58, "time_label": "3:15", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "We're going to have prosperity unlike anyone could ever imagine. Well, the problem with this kind of gleeful rhetoric about blowing the hell out of these people is that many of these people are innocent civilians. U.S...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "Piers asks Rob O'Neill whether Iran's tactic of inflicting economic damage is harder to defeat than its conventional military capacity.", "speaker_attribution": "Piers Morgan", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 250.7, "end": 306.04, "time_label": "4:10", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Well, welcome to all of you. Rob O 'Neill, welcome back again to Uncensored. Few people have had more experience of combat in the Middle East than you. And, of course, you killed Osama bin Laden. So I just want to ask y..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Rob O'Neill says Iran can be beaten militarily but warns that any boots-on-the-ground follow-through risks occupation, quagmire, and civilian horror.", "speaker_attribution": "Rob O'Neill", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 250.7, "end": 306.04, "time_label": "4:10", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Well, welcome to all of you. Rob O 'Neill, welcome back again to Uncensored. Few people have had more experience of combat in the Middle East than you. And, of course, you killed Osama bin Laden. So I just want to ask y..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 307.12, "end": 344.48, "time_label": "5:07", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "You know, I was there for the invasion. 2003, I remember the buildup. I remember I was excited at the time because it's just right after 9 -11, and as a young Navy SEAL, especially a SEAL Team 6, I want to invade anywhe..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 344.48, "end": 385.22, "time_label": "5:44", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "do have guys at the Tier 1 level with the designation to take out military sites and inspect them, maybe. But again, like your previous guest was saying, you get boots on the ground, that's what the— I hate the word qua..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Piers presses Rob on movie-style war propaganda and Rob condemns cheering, gamified rhetoric, while still backing Pete Hegseth's broader role.", "speaker_attribution": "Piers Morgan and Rob O'Neill", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 385.3, "end": 430.98, "time_label": "6:25", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Horrible stuff. This is not something to cheer. This is—war is the—should be the very end of a political means. I've been to war a lot. I'm not pro -war. I think there should be other ways to do it. I'm watching cautiou..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 430.98, "end": 478.86, "time_label": "7:10", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "are pumping out kind of movie -style promos about this war, almost like this is not real. This is like a movie we're watching. I've got to say, as someone who's had a lot of family myself who've gone to combat in war, I..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "Piers asks Congressman Corey Mills whether the United States should admit fault and apologize if the girls' school strike was American.", "speaker_attribution": "Piers Morgan", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 479.54, "end": 526.73, "time_label": "7:59", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "And I'm all in with Pete Hegseth. This is what we needed. I like the way he does it. I like the way he works out with the troops and has a morale high. The media doesn't like him. I mean, most of the media, that says he..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 526.83, "end": 567.22, "time_label": "8:46", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "It was, of course, next to a Revolutionary Guard base and used to be part of the base and then was moved, and it may be this was just a horrific accident, but it had enormous consequences. Would it not be the right thin..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Mills defers judgment pending classified review, promises accountability if the U.S. is responsible, and broadens the war into a long-running China-Russia-Iran-North Korea economic struggle centered on the dollar and global transit routes.", "speaker_attribution": "Corey Mills", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 526.83, "end": 567.22, "time_label": "8:46", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "It was, of course, next to a Revolutionary Guard base and used to be part of the base and then was moved, and it may be this was just a horrific accident, but it had enormous consequences. Would it not be the right thin..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 567.22, "end": 605.82, "time_label": "9:27", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "one of the things you don't do, whether it's in politics or the military, is get out ahead of intel. You know, we want to make sure that we get the actual post -blast analysis. We want to look at what the actual traject..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 605.82, "end": 658.23, "time_label": "10:05", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I'm the Subcommittee Chair of the Oversight and Intelligence and Foreign Affairs Committee. So until I can actually get in there, I'm not going to get over my skis and start making comments, but I can tell you that if a..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 658.53, "end": 707.46, "time_label": "10:58", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "But it's also true that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, pretty well completely closed, if that goes on for much longer, the enormous damage that is causing to the global economy coupled with the attacks they've bee..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 707.46, "end": 749.53, "time_label": "11:47", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "dollar as a global currency. Not to mention the fact that China had a lot at stake on this. What they wanted to do with the Belt and Road Initiative was have Russia start the war in Ukraine to expand the Eurasian border..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Corey Mills continues his case for the war, citing civilian protection, nuclear danger, missiles, and a transitional plan around Reza Pahlavi.", "speaker_attribution": "Corey Mills", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 749.53, "end": 800, "time_label": "12:29", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "It's just that we kept calling them a great superpower resurgence. When it comes to the designation of this conflict or this hostility, let's go back to the 2011 OECD Obama days where Libya was actually utilizing the De..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 800.02, "end": 844.36, "time_label": "13:20", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "And guess what else we found out? We found out they had working hypersonic ballistic missiles. These are ballistic missiles that traveled over 15,000 plus miles per hour and have the ability to hit mock levels that we c..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 844.52, "end": 886.88, "time_label": "14:04", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "That's how easy it actually is. So denigrate the IRGC, eliminate the head of the snake, which is the Ayatollah, which we know there's multiple heads. Rob and I can tell you that you eliminate one terrorist organization,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Piers cuts Mills off for time and invites Ryan Grim to react to Mills's seemingly straightforward regime-change picture.", "speaker_attribution": "Piers Morgan and Corey Mills", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 887.14, "end": 938.99, "time_label": "14:47", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I guess we know it, Piers. Sorry? I said it's just very complex, Piers, to get into a 30 -second segment. No, no. Listen, I totally respect that, but we have obviously got four panelists. I want to bring in Ryan Grim be..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Ryan Grim calls Mills's scenario absurd, argues the war narrative keeps shifting, and says public polling shows Americans doubt the stated rationale and suspect the war serves Israel or domestic distraction rather than U.S. interests.", "speaker_attribution": "Ryan Grim", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 887.14, "end": 938.99, "time_label": "14:47", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I guess we know it, Piers. Sorry? I said it's just very complex, Piers, to get into a 30 -second segment. No, no. Listen, I totally respect that, but we have obviously got four panelists. I want to bring in Ryan Grim be..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 939.11, "end": 992.34, "time_label": "15:39", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "That's what it's doing in the real world, in this, like, fantasy land. You're like, oh, get this bad guy, get this bad guy, get this bad guy, and, oh, Reza over here, who lives in Potomac, Maryland, we're going to, like..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 992.48, "end": 1044.94, "time_label": "16:32", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I don't think Marco Rubio misspoke. I just think they didn't appreciate it. They didn't appreciate quite how that was going to play out. Right. And because we haven't gotten a rationale that they have stuck to, initiall..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1044.94, "end": 1101.71, "time_label": "17:24", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "that Trump was more responsive when it came to the war in Iran to Benjamin Netanyahu than he was to the American public. I think 47 % said he was more responsive to the American people than to Benjamin Netanyahu. So as..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1101.89, "end": 1154.51, "time_label": "18:21", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "They're particularly concerned because they've already still got inflation, still got rising costs. They've seen prices at the gas pump now rocketing in the last two weeks. This is the biggest turmoil for oil prices in..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Piers asks Gideon Levy whether Israel and the United States now have diverging endgames, and Gideon answers that Israel has embraced force without clear endgame while ignoring the human displacement cost.", "speaker_attribution": "Piers Morgan and Gideon Levy", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1154.65, "end": 1211.3, "time_label": "19:14", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "In fact, the Ayatollah's own son is reported to be the new supreme leader, although we haven't seen him. And coupled with that, there's a sense that Israel has a different objective here. That Israel will be quite happy..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1211.48, "end": 1273.1, "time_label": "20:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Israel turned into the notion that everything can be solved and everything is legitimate to be solved by force and by a lot of force, by unlimited force. We will change the leadership of the Middle East. First, we tried..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1273.42, "end": 1344.98, "time_label": "21:13", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "They are totally not in this formula of comparing utility and price. No. They must be remembered. Now, coming back to your question, Piers, Israel went to this war without having a very clear endgame. They saw an opport..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1345.46, "end": 1410.91, "time_label": "22:25", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Surprise, surprise. 94 % of the Israeli Jews support this war. Can you believe it? Those are people who pay a price for this war. 94. Those are North Korean figures. Only in North Korea you get, on any issue, 94 % suppo..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "kind": "question", "summary": "Piers asks Rob O'Neill whether Americans should accept the economic and political cost of the largest imaginable Middle East war.", "speaker_attribution": "Piers Morgan", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 1411.09, "end": 1467.02, "time_label": "23:31", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I mean, he made it clear that Iran was a 40 -year project for him, which was finally happening. Rob O 'Neill, I know you've got to leave us imminently. As an American, putting aside your amazing career in the military,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Rob gives a conflicted answer: he supports the administration in principle and hopes for lower prices and stability, but repeatedly stresses caution, the school strike, and the ugly reality of what war does on the ground.", "speaker_attribution": "Rob O'Neill", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 1467.02, "end": 1513.92, "time_label": "24:27", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Do you agree with that? I do, in theory, agree with it, that if it does work out, the prices of everything will go down because it will positively affect oil prices, and that, as we know, affects everything. I'm not......" }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1513.96, "end": 1553.52, "time_label": "25:13", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "We had the Civil War, a million people died. Preemptive strikes, though, 2003. I went to Iraq. Turns out it wasn't the way to go. So, I mean, I'm very, very cautious. As the father of four daughters, and hearing a missi..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1553.52, "end": 1607.96, "time_label": "25:53", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "this administration is doing what they think is the right thing for the future, not just of the country but of the West. Don't like war, hate cheering for war, but I'm watching. And, again, I'm trying to stay open -mind..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0035" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Piers asks whether Trump should fear political damage, and Mills answers by reframing the war around energy, China, and regional stability rather than domestic electoral cost.", "speaker_attribution": "Piers Morgan and Corey Mills", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1608.22, "end": 1652.82, "time_label": "26:48", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Are you worried politically about this if it carries on much longer? Well, let me just go ahead and touch on something. And Rob had talked about it, and it's been severed, like, many times about oil and economics. What..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 1652.92, "end": 1695.54, "time_label": "27:32", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "It's not. If you look at the geopolitical ramifications of the elimination of Maduro, that was 70 % of the oil that went to China. Iran is another 20 % that goes to China. That now potentially stops the unification of T..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 1695.76, "end": 1741.97, "time_label": "28:15", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "So this is a momentary diversion, as Secretary of Energy Wright had said, that allows us to not only try and help to free innocent civilians who are dying, but not get boots on the ground. This is not Iraq and Afghanist..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0039" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Ryan Grim attacks Mills over possible defense-industry interests, Mills denies profiteering, and both pivot back to competing accounts of who benefits from war.", "speaker_attribution": "Ryan Grim and Corey Mills with Piers managing turns", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 1695.76, "end": 1741.97, "time_label": "28:15", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "So this is a momentary diversion, as Secretary of Energy Wright had said, that allows us to not only try and help to free innocent civilians who are dying, but not get boots on the ground. This is not Iraq and Afghanist..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 1742.09, "end": 1786.88, "time_label": "29:02", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Congressman, correct me if I'm wrong. You... You're an arms trafficker, no? No, I'm not actually. I don't actually own a company, and I actually have divested a blind trust. I'm also the only member of Congress who actu..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 1786.96, "end": 1828.71, "time_label": "29:46", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "That's okay. When I went into the military, I had nothing as well. And I'm just proud to be able to go ahead and serve the American people. And you can keep trying to play your foreign policy economic elementary 101, bu..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 1828.71, "end": 1868.3, "time_label": "30:28", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "can tell you that when I was there, the only thing that we did was work the U.S. government to help to defeat ISIS, who was in Fallujah and Mosul, who had held that for three -plus years, raping and imprisoning young wo..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 1868.3, "end": 1912.14, "time_label": "31:08", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "government from Northrop Grumman, from GED, and from others, go look at quantitative analysis and see how many stocks I've traded since I've been in office. Go look at how much I own since I've been in office and before..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Ryan says the war is already a catastrophe for the United States and Tehran alike, while China watches and learns as America exhausts itself.", "speaker_attribution": "Ryan Grim", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 1868.3, "end": 1912.14, "time_label": "31:08", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "government from Northrop Grumman, from GED, and from others, go look at quantitative analysis and see how many stocks I've traded since I've been in office. Go look at how much I own since I've been in office and before..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 1912.14, "end": 1971.84, "time_label": "31:52", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "a catastrophe for the United States, and it's a catastrophe for the people in Tehran who are seeing, you know, this indiscriminate bombing. There was just a residential building that was triple -tapped. The people of Ir..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0043" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Piers asks Gideon what happens next, and Gideon answers that Trump can still stop the war, that Israel never benefits from wars in the long run, and that this conflict will leave Israel with more losses and more occupation logic.", "speaker_attribution": "Piers Morgan and Gideon Levy", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 1973.63, "end": 2030.19, "time_label": "32:53", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Well, let me, let me ask Gideon the same, the same question. Gideon, what do you, what do you think is going to happen here? First of all, it's very hard to foresee because finally it depends mainly on Donald Trump. I s..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 2030.47, "end": 2092.35, "time_label": "33:50", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "They always brought either immediate losses or losses for the long run like this fatal 1967 war which stacked us with this horrible, damped occupation until this very moment. Wars don't serve interest for the long run a..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 2092.49, "end": 2153.29, "time_label": "34:52", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Is Gaza a more stable place? Is the danger of Gaza smaller or bigger for the long run? Same will be here and I'm very sorry to say it because they always say that I always spoil all those parties. No, it's not a party...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Piers opens a new interview with Bafel Talabani and asks for an overview of the war and why no popular uprising has emerged inside Iran.", "speaker_attribution": "Piers Morgan and Bafel Talabani", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 2153.41, "end": 2221.53, "time_label": "35:53", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "He's the president of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. Mr. Talabani, thank you very much indeed for joining me on Uncensored. I know you spoke to President Trump a few days ago. What is your overview about where we are..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2223.4, "end": 2274.4, "time_label": "37:03", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Yeah, I mean, that's the thing that I've been looking for, which is, you know, where is the rising up of the people? You know, there was a belief that maybe the Kurds were going to lead the rebellion and so on. But of c..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Talabani argues fear of regional collapse and fragmentation suppresses revolt, says military objectives may have been partly achieved without yielding a clear political victory, and rejects the idea that Kurdish groups should spearhead an incursion into Iran.", "speaker_attribution": "Bafel Talabani", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2274.4, "end": 2341.82, "time_label": "37:54", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I would agree with that, but I would add another prong. I think there's three prongs of concern. One of them is the zip code, the postcode, sorry, that Iran is in. Just look at the recent years, Iran is in. The postcode..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 2342.02, "end": 2412.14, "time_label": "39:02", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "If that doesn't happen, can the United States legitimately claim victory? Judging by some of the statements that were made, the initial objectives militarily, I think some of them have been achieved. Victory for Mr. Tru..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2412.36, "end": 2468.02, "time_label": "40:12", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Can you say anything about that? I can. This is categorically not the case, at least in this side of Iraqi Kurdistan. Also, please remember the Kurds make up less than 10 % of the Iranian population of 92 million. Of th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Piers and Talabani finish the Kurdistan interview by discussing Trump's demeanor, Iraq's post-Saddam trajectory, and whether long pain can ever justify regime change.", "speaker_attribution": "Piers Morgan and Bafel Talabani", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 2468.28, "end": 2534.56, "time_label": "41:08", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "And in my communications, I think there are with the different Kurdish groups. I think a lot of them understand this. And have you made that clear to President Trump directly when you spoke to him? No, the phone call wi..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 2534.64, "end": 2586, "time_label": "42:14", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "What a remarkable moment in history that was. You know, I was editor of the Daily Mirror newspaper in the UK which took a very strong position against that war. And for a very long time, I felt thoroughly vindicated. So..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 2586, "end": 2640.22, "time_label": "43:06", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "said, there's been enough blood spilled, but it's taken us 20 years of relentless combat to get to today. And it's been a long time. The Middle East has suffered a lot. Yeah, it has. And it's actually very sad to see it..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Piers introduces Professor Jiang and frames him through his predictive record on Trump's victory, war with Iran, and an eventual U.S. loss.", "speaker_attribution": "Piers Morgan and Jiang Xueqin", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 2586, "end": 2640.22, "time_label": "43:06", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "said, there's been enough blood spilled, but it's taken us 20 years of relentless combat to get to today. And it's been a long time. The Middle East has suffered a lot. Yeah, it has. And it's actually very sad to see it..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang argues that the war is really an attritional struggle between U.S. military degradation and Iranian economic strangulation, and that once ground forces or prolonged Hormuz disruption arrive, the United States faces Vietnam-like political and economic limits.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang Xueqin", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2711.07, "end": 2775.04, "time_label": "45:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "right now doesn't have the manpower, the manufacturing capacity, and the political will to fight a long war of attrition on the ground in Iran. Right. So I think because of what you said at the end there, it's highly un..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2775.26, "end": 2850.16, "time_label": "46:15", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Now, let's assume that Trump does withdraw from the Middle East. And what happens is that the G.C.C. nations of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, now are going to Iran because they supply the world with their oil..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 2850.16, "end": 2916.87, "time_label": "47:30", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": ". And this means that these young men could not afford their own offense anymore and this could lead to a revolution in the streets. So the consequences for America were dire if America were to retreat from the Middle E..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 2916.87, "end": 2981.87, "time_label": "48:36", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "remember food is produced by fertilizer which comes from the gcc as well as sulfuric acid which which is which helps the process of semiconductor production so artificial intelligence uh food production uh global travel..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0058" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Piers presses Jiang on whether Iran's attacks on desalination, hotels, airports, and tourism reveal an existential threat to the GCC business model, and Jiang answers through Dubai's dependence on Pax Americana.", "speaker_attribution": "Piers Morgan and Jiang Xueqin", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 2981.87, "end": 3045.64, "time_label": "49:41", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "so if you go to southeast asia vietnam and thailand have already ordered the government workers to work from home in order to save fuel you've pointed out that the gulf corporation has been a very successful market for..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 3045.64, "end": 3114.41, "time_label": "50:45", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "deploying uh including the threats to desalination um but also targeting obviously targeted hotels and uh an airport and so on going to the heart of what the states there would like to see as the future of their economy..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Jiang expands the argument into a theory that the war targets American empire itself and is driven by overlapping eschatological societies, Christian Zionist influence, and an eventual AI surveillance order he calls Pax Judaica.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang Xueqin", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 3114.41, "end": 3176.61, "time_label": "51:54", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "of america to project around the world and provide security guarantees uh to the gcc now this aura of inviability and invincibility of american empire has been shattered and once an illusion is shattered there's actuall..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "segment_id": "seg-0060", "start": 3176.61, "end": 3248.21, "time_label": "52:56", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "that trump is not the most powerful person in america and you've inferred that actually the real power base is israel explain that right so actually don't say the real power base is um israel what i say is that the real..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 3248.43, "end": 3304.97, "time_label": "54:08", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "This war in the Middle East will lead to the defeat of the American Empire, and this will lead to the culmination of the Greater Israel Project, where Israel is able to control the Middle East from the Nile to the Euphr..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3304.99, "end": 3368.88, "time_label": "55:04", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "What do you say to that? Look, I completely sympathize with this argument. Five years ago, I would have said the same thing about this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3369.66, "end": 3426.3, "time_label": "56:09", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Christian Zionists are heavily embedded in the national security apparatus and in the Pentagon. There's reporting that US commanders have told their troops that this is a war to bring back Jesus. And so I think that's i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0064" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Piers challenges Jiang's eschatological theory as possibly fantastical and anti-Semitic, and Jiang answers that his method is speculative predictive modeling whose legitimacy comes from successful forecasts, not archival proof.", "speaker_attribution": "Piers Morgan and Jiang Xueqin", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 3248.43, "end": 3304.97, "time_label": "54:08", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "This war in the Middle East will lead to the defeat of the American Empire, and this will lead to the culmination of the Greater Israel Project, where Israel is able to control the Middle East from the Nile to the Euphr..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3304.99, "end": 3368.88, "time_label": "55:04", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "What do you say to that? Look, I completely sympathize with this argument. Five years ago, I would have said the same thing about this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3369.66, "end": 3426.3, "time_label": "56:09", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Christian Zionists are heavily embedded in the national security apparatus and in the Pentagon. There's reporting that US commanders have told their troops that this is a war to bring back Jesus. And so I think that's i..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0064", "segment_id": "seg-0064", "start": 3426.3, "end": 3469.51, "time_label": "57:06", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I think it's highly unlikely, unless any evidence emerges to the contrary, that they are current commanders in the United States military. But Professor Zhang, you have a big following. Lots of people are interested in..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "speaker_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "note": "The opening focus window is clearly Piers Morgan: he frames the war, quotes Trump and Lindsey Graham, and moderates the panel.", "suggested_speaker": "Piers Morgan", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.05, "end": 50.27, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "As the father of four daughters and hearing a missile hit a school, if it's true, everyone should apologize. Like, look, we can figure out who did it later. This is a result of our conflict. Are you confident that you'l..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 250.7, "end": 306.04, "time_label": "4:10", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Well, welcome to all of you. Rob O 'Neill, welcome back again to Uncensored. Few people have had more experience of combat in the Middle East than you. And, of course, you killed Osama bin Laden. So I just want to ask y..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "note": "Rob O'Neill takes over after Piers's military question and stays on the floor through the occupation/quagmire warning.", "suggested_speaker": "Rob O'Neill", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 250.7, "end": 306.04, "time_label": "4:10", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Well, welcome to all of you. Rob O 'Neill, welcome back again to Uncensored. Few people have had more experience of combat in the Middle East than you. And, of course, you killed Osama bin Laden. So I just want to ask y..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 344.48, "end": 385.22, "time_label": "5:44", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "do have guys at the Tier 1 level with the designation to take out military sites and inspect them, maybe. But again, like your previous guest was saying, you get boots on the ground, that's what the— I hate the word qua..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "note": "Piers is still moderating and redirecting between Rob and Congressman Mills in this packet.", "suggested_speaker": "Piers Morgan", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 385.3, "end": 430.98, "time_label": "6:25", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Horrible stuff. This is not something to cheer. This is—war is the—should be the very end of a political means. I've been to war a lot. I'm not pro -war. I think there should be other ways to do it. I'm watching cautiou..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 479.54, "end": 526.73, "time_label": "7:59", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "And I'm all in with Pete Hegseth. This is what we needed. I like the way he does it. I like the way he works out with the troops and has a morale high. The media doesn't like him. I mean, most of the media, that says he..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "note": "Congressman Mills's answer begins after the apology question and expands into a sprawling geopolitical theory with multiple ASR-corrupted place names.", "suggested_speaker": "Corey Mills", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 526.83, "end": 567.22, "time_label": "8:46", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "It was, of course, next to a Revolutionary Guard base and used to be part of the base and then was moved, and it may be this was just a horrific accident, but it had enormous consequences. Would it not be the right thin..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 707.46, "end": 749.53, "time_label": "11:47", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "dollar as a global currency. Not to mention the fact that China had a lot at stake on this. What they wanted to do with the Belt and Road Initiative was have Russia start the war in Ukraine to expand the Eurasian border..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "note": "The floor turns from Mills to Ryan only after Piers explicitly interrupts and redirects.", "suggested_speaker": "Piers Morgan moderating between Corey Mills and Ryan Grim", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 844.52, "end": 886.88, "time_label": "14:04", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "That's how easy it actually is. So denigrate the IRGC, eliminate the head of the snake, which is the Ayatollah, which we know there's multiple heads. Rob and I can tell you that you eliminate one terrorist organization,..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 887.14, "end": 938.99, "time_label": "14:47", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I guess we know it, Piers. Sorry? I said it's just very complex, Piers, to get into a 30 -second segment. No, no. Listen, I totally respect that, but we have obviously got four panelists. I want to bring in Ryan Grim be..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "note": "Gideon Levy is the speaker condemning Israel's force-first doctrine, Gaza precedent, and 94 percent Israeli-Jewish support for the war.", "suggested_speaker": "Gideon Levy", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1211.48, "end": 1273.1, "time_label": "20:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Israel turned into the notion that everything can be solved and everything is legitimate to be solved by force and by a lot of force, by unlimited force. We will change the leadership of the Middle East. First, we tried..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1345.46, "end": 1410.91, "time_label": "22:25", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Surprise, surprise. 94 % of the Israeli Jews support this war. Can you believe it? Those are people who pay a price for this war. 94. Those are North Korean figures. Only in North Korea you get, on any issue, 94 % suppo..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "note": "This packet contains a rapid hostile back-and-forth rather than clean monologues; the accusations and denials belong to Ryan and Mills respectively.", "suggested_speaker": "Ryan Grim and Corey Mills", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 1742.09, "end": 1786.88, "time_label": "29:02", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Congressman, correct me if I'm wrong. You... You're an arms trafficker, no? No, I'm not actually. I don't actually own a company, and I actually have divested a blind trust. I'm also the only member of Congress who actu..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 1828.71, "end": 1868.3, "time_label": "30:28", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "can tell you that when I was there, the only thing that we did was work the U.S. government to help to defeat ISIS, who was in Fallujah and Mosul, who had held that for three -plus years, raping and imprisoning young wo..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "note": "After the panel closes, the packet shifts into a separate one-on-one interview with Bafel Talabani of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.", "suggested_speaker": "Bafel Talabani", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 2153.41, "end": 2221.53, "time_label": "35:53", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "He's the president of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. Mr. Talabani, thank you very much indeed for joining me on Uncensored. I know you spoke to President Trump a few days ago. What is your overview about where we are..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2412.36, "end": 2468.02, "time_label": "40:12", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Can you say anything about that? I can. This is categorically not the case, at least in this side of Iraqi Kurdistan. Also, please remember the Kurds make up less than 10 % of the Iranian population of 92 million. Of th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "note": "The packet pivots from Talabani to Jiang; Piers's introduction makes clear that 'Professor Zhang' in the ASR is Jiang Xueqin of Predictive History.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang Xueqin", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 2586, "end": 2640.22, "time_label": "43:06", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "said, there's been enough blood spilled, but it's taken us 20 years of relentless combat to get to today. And it's been a long time. The Middle East has suffered a lot. Yeah, it has. And it's actually very sad to see it..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063" ], "note": "Jiang explicitly corrects a simplification about 'Israel' and instead names a broader set of overlapping eschatological societies and Christian Zionist influence.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang Xueqin", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "segment_id": "seg-0060", "start": 3176.61, "end": 3248.21, "time_label": "52:56", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "that trump is not the most powerful person in america and you've inferred that actually the real power base is israel explain that right so actually don't say the real power base is um israel what i say is that the real..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3369.66, "end": 3426.3, "time_label": "56:09", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Christian Zionists are heavily embedded in the national security apparatus and in the Pentagon. There's reporting that US commanders have told their troops that this is a war to bring back Jesus. And so I think that's i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "claims": [ { "claim": "Piers argues Iran's threshold for victory is low because simple regime survival with autonomy is enough for Tehran to claim success, while American-Israeli victory would require a much more demanding transformation of Iran.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "temporal_scope": "Opening diagnosis of the war on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "Iran war", "victory conditions", "regime survival" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 96.67, "end": 148.9, "time_label": "1:36", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "And as we take decisive action to stop the threat posed by the terrorist regime in Iran with Operation Epic Fury. Is that a great name? Well, it's only good if you win. You know, you can only do it. And we've won. Let m..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 149, "end": 195.743, "time_label": "2:29", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "If the regime survives with its autonomy, Iran will claim victory. Victory for the United States and Israel is a lot more complicated. Many roads do seem to lead to a new Iran, which is a lot like the old Iran, but even..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Piers treats the school strike as a moral and political liability, arguing that the United States should quickly admit responsibility and apologize if American forces caused it.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "temporal_scope": "Current-war normative judgment on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "school strike", "civilian casualties", "apology" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 195.743, "end": 250.58, "time_label": "3:15", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "We're going to have prosperity unlike anyone could ever imagine. Well, the problem with this kind of gleeful rhetoric about blowing the hell out of these people is that many of these people are innocent civilians. U.S...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Rob O'Neill says Iranian economic warfare is difficult to defeat and warns that even if the U.S. and Israel win tactically, a post-strike occupation would turn them into occupiers who steadily lose local support.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "temporal_scope": "Military assessment during the war on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "occupation", "quagmire", "economic warfare" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 250.7, "end": 306.04, "time_label": "4:10", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Well, welcome to all of you. Rob O 'Neill, welcome back again to Uncensored. Few people have had more experience of combat in the Middle East than you. And, of course, you killed Osama bin Laden. So I just want to ask y..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 307.12, "end": 344.48, "time_label": "5:07", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "You know, I was there for the invasion. 2003, I remember the buildup. I remember I was excited at the time because it's just right after 9 -11, and as a young Navy SEAL, especially a SEAL Team 6, I want to invade anywhe..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 344.48, "end": 385.22, "time_label": "5:44", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "do have guys at the Tier 1 level with the designation to take out military sites and inspect them, maybe. But again, like your previous guest was saying, you get boots on the ground, that's what the— I hate the word qua..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Rob O'Neill rejects war-as-spectacle rhetoric, arguing that real combat is unlike movies or games and should not be cheered even by people who support the mission.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "temporal_scope": "Normative reflection during the war on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "war propaganda", "military culture", "spectacle" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 385.3, "end": 430.98, "time_label": "6:25", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Horrible stuff. This is not something to cheer. This is—war is the—should be the very end of a political means. I've been to war a lot. I'm not pro -war. I think there should be other ways to do it. I'm watching cautiou..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 430.98, "end": 478.86, "time_label": "7:10", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "are pumping out kind of movie -style promos about this war, almost like this is not real. This is like a movie we're watching. I've got to say, as someone who's had a lot of family myself who've gone to combat in war, I..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Mills says no one should get ahead of intelligence on the school strike and that the United States should conduct accountability review only after post-blast analysis and classified briefing establish what happened.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "temporal_scope": "Current-war response on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "school strike", "intelligence review", "accountability" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 526.83, "end": 567.22, "time_label": "8:46", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "It was, of course, next to a Revolutionary Guard base and used to be part of the base and then was moved, and it may be this was just a horrific accident, but it had enormous consequences. Would it not be the right thin..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 605.82, "end": 658.23, "time_label": "10:05", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I'm the Subcommittee Chair of the Oversight and Intelligence and Foreign Affairs Committee. So until I can actually get in there, I'm not going to get over my skis and start making comments, but I can tell you that if a..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Mills reframes the conflict as part of a preexisting geopolitical alignment among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea whose long goal is to displace the U.S. dollar and constrain American logistics and power projection.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "temporal_scope": "Strategic model asserted on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "U.S. dollar", "China", "Belt and Road", "economic warfare" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 658.53, "end": 707.46, "time_label": "10:58", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "But it's also true that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, pretty well completely closed, if that goes on for much longer, the enormous damage that is causing to the global economy coupled with the attacks they've bee..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 707.46, "end": 749.53, "time_label": "11:47", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "dollar as a global currency. Not to mention the fact that China had a lot at stake on this. What they wanted to do with the Belt and Road Initiative was have Russia start the war in Ukraine to expand the Eurasian border..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Mills argues the war can avoid becoming Iraq or Afghanistan because coordinated strikes can remove imminent threats, weaken the IRGC, and hand the country to a transitional figure such as Reza Pahlavi.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "temporal_scope": "War-supporting model asserted on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "regime change", "Reza Pahlavi", "IRGC", "nuclear threat" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 749.53, "end": 800, "time_label": "12:29", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "It's just that we kept calling them a great superpower resurgence. When it comes to the designation of this conflict or this hostility, let's go back to the 2011 OECD Obama days where Libya was actually utilizing the De..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 800.02, "end": 844.36, "time_label": "13:20", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "And guess what else we found out? We found out they had working hypersonic ballistic missiles. These are ballistic missiles that traveled over 15,000 plus miles per hour and have the ability to hit mock levels that we c..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 844.52, "end": 886.88, "time_label": "14:04", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "That's how easy it actually is. So denigrate the IRGC, eliminate the head of the snake, which is the Ayatollah, which we know there's multiple heads. Rob and I can tell you that you eliminate one terrorist organization,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Ryan Grim argues the war's official rationale keeps mutating and that this incoherence is politically visible to the public.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0022" ], "temporal_scope": "Political diagnosis on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "war rationale", "public opinion", "regime change", "nuclear program" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 939.11, "end": 992.34, "time_label": "15:39", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "That's what it's doing in the real world, in this, like, fantasy land. You're like, oh, get this bad guy, get this bad guy, get this bad guy, and, oh, Reza over here, who lives in Potomac, Maryland, we're going to, like..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 992.48, "end": 1044.94, "time_label": "16:32", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I don't think Marco Rubio misspoke. I just think they didn't appreciate it. They didn't appreciate quite how that was going to play out. Right. And because we haven't gotten a rationale that they have stuck to, initiall..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Ryan cites polling suggesting large shares of likely voters think Trump entered the war to distract from the Epstein scandal or to serve Netanyahu more than the American public.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "temporal_scope": "Current polling claim on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "polling", "Epstein scandal", "Netanyahu", "America First" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 992.48, "end": 1044.94, "time_label": "16:32", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I don't think Marco Rubio misspoke. I just think they didn't appreciate it. They didn't appreciate quite how that was going to play out. Right. And because we haven't gotten a rationale that they have stuck to, initiall..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1044.94, "end": 1101.71, "time_label": "17:24", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "that Trump was more responsive when it came to the war in Iran to Benjamin Netanyahu than he was to the American public. I think 47 % said he was more responsive to the American people than to Benjamin Netanyahu. So as..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Ryan says the war is politically dangerous for Trump because it is already unpopular, worsening inflation and gas prices, and undermining the claim that he acts for U.S. interests.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "temporal_scope": "Political forecast as of 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "Trump", "unpopular war", "inflation", "gas prices" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1044.94, "end": 1101.71, "time_label": "17:24", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "that Trump was more responsive when it came to the war in Iran to Benjamin Netanyahu than he was to the American public. I think 47 % said he was more responsive to the American people than to Benjamin Netanyahu. So as..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1101.89, "end": 1154.51, "time_label": "18:21", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "They're particularly concerned because they've already still got inflation, still got rising costs. They've seen prices at the gas pump now rocketing in the last two weeks. This is the biggest turmoil for oil prices in..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Gideon says Israel went to war without a clear endgame, under a post-October 7 mentality that force can solve everything, while disregarding the displaced millions who do not appear in oil-price cost-benefit talk.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "temporal_scope": "Israeli-war diagnosis on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "Israel", "endgame", "October 7", "displacement" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1154.65, "end": 1211.3, "time_label": "19:14", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "In fact, the Ayatollah's own son is reported to be the new supreme leader, although we haven't seen him. And coupled with that, there's a sense that Israel has a different objective here. That Israel will be quite happy..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1211.48, "end": 1273.1, "time_label": "20:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Israel turned into the notion that everything can be solved and everything is legitimate to be solved by force and by a lot of force, by unlimited force. We will change the leadership of the Middle East. First, we tried..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1273.42, "end": 1344.98, "time_label": "21:13", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "They are totally not in this formula of comparing utility and price. No. They must be remembered. Now, coming back to your question, Piers, Israel went to this war without having a very clear endgame. They saw an opport..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Gideon reports overwhelming Israeli Jewish support for the war and treats it as evidence of a deeper social pathology after years of Gaza warfare.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "temporal_scope": "Current public-opinion claim on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "Israeli society", "public opinion", "Gaza" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1345.46, "end": 1410.91, "time_label": "22:25", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Surprise, surprise. 94 % of the Israeli Jews support this war. Can you believe it? Those are people who pay a price for this war. 94. Those are North Korean figures. Only in North Korea you get, on any issue, 94 % suppo..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Rob O'Neill says a successful war might lower prices and stabilize the region, but he remains deeply cautious because preemption can repeat Iraq-like mistakes and because civilian victims still demand apology.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "temporal_scope": "Conflicted military-political judgment on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "preemption", "Iraq", "school strike", "economic cost" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 1467.02, "end": 1513.92, "time_label": "24:27", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Do you agree with that? I do, in theory, agree with it, that if it does work out, the prices of everything will go down because it will positively affect oil prices, and that, as we know, affects everything. I'm not......" }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1513.96, "end": 1553.52, "time_label": "25:13", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "We had the Civil War, a million people died. Preemptive strikes, though, 2003. I went to Iraq. Turns out it wasn't the way to go. So, I mean, I'm very, very cautious. As the father of four daughters, and hearing a missi..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1553.52, "end": 1607.96, "time_label": "25:53", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "this administration is doing what they think is the right thing for the future, not just of the country but of the West. Don't like war, hate cheering for war, but I'm watching. And, again, I'm trying to stay open -mind..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Mills argues energy, not currency names, is the real global currency, and that destroying Iran's regime and constraining Chinese oil access would stabilize the region and eventually lower prices.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0035" ], "temporal_scope": "War-justifying geopolitical model on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "energy", "China", "oil", "regional stability" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1608.22, "end": 1652.82, "time_label": "26:48", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Are you worried politically about this if it carries on much longer? Well, let me just go ahead and touch on something. And Rob had talked about it, and it's been severed, like, many times about oil and economics. What..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 1652.92, "end": 1695.54, "time_label": "27:32", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "It's not. If you look at the geopolitical ramifications of the elimination of Maduro, that was 70 % of the oil that went to China. Iran is another 20 % that goes to China. That now potentially stops the unification of T..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 1695.76, "end": 1741.97, "time_label": "28:15", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "So this is a momentary diversion, as Secretary of Energy Wright had said, that allows us to not only try and help to free innocent civilians who are dying, but not get boots on the ground. This is not Iraq and Afghanist..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Ryan implies Mills's economic reading is compromised by defense-sector interest, while Mills answers that he does not own or profit from an arms company and that war does not benefit him personally.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0039" ], "temporal_scope": "Conflict-of-interest dispute on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "arms industry", "conflict of interest", "war profits" ], "claim_type": "other", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 1695.76, "end": 1741.97, "time_label": "28:15", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "So this is a momentary diversion, as Secretary of Energy Wright had said, that allows us to not only try and help to free innocent civilians who are dying, but not get boots on the ground. This is not Iraq and Afghanist..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 1742.09, "end": 1786.88, "time_label": "29:02", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Congressman, correct me if I'm wrong. You... You're an arms trafficker, no? No, I'm not actually. I don't actually own a company, and I actually have divested a blind trust. I'm also the only member of Congress who actu..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 1786.96, "end": 1828.71, "time_label": "29:46", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "That's okay. When I went into the military, I had nothing as well. And I'm just proud to be able to go ahead and serve the American people. And you can keep trying to play your foreign policy economic elementary 101, bu..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 1828.71, "end": 1868.3, "time_label": "30:28", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "can tell you that when I was there, the only thing that we did was work the U.S. government to help to defeat ISIS, who was in Fallujah and Mosul, who had held that for three -plus years, raping and imprisoning young wo..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 1868.3, "end": 1912.14, "time_label": "31:08", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "government from Northrop Grumman, from GED, and from others, go look at quantitative analysis and see how many stocks I've traded since I've been in office. Go look at how much I own since I've been in office and before..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Ryan says the war benefits no one except perhaps Israel because it is exhausting American military power, immiserating civilians, and providing China a live tutorial in how the U.S. fights a conventional war.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "temporal_scope": "Current-war diagnosis on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "catastrophe", "China", "military exhaustion", "Israel" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 1868.3, "end": 1912.14, "time_label": "31:08", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "government from Northrop Grumman, from GED, and from others, go look at quantitative analysis and see how many stocks I've traded since I've been in office. Go look at how much I own since I've been in office and before..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 1912.14, "end": 1971.84, "time_label": "31:52", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "a catastrophe for the United States, and it's a catastrophe for the people in Tehran who are seeing, you know, this indiscriminate bombing. There was just a residential building that was triple -tapped. The people of Ir..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Gideon Levy says Israel has never truly benefited from its wars and that the present war will also leave long-run losses rather than security gains.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0043" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical-political diagnosis on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "Israel", "war outcomes", "occupation" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 1973.63, "end": 2030.19, "time_label": "32:53", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Well, let me, let me ask Gideon the same, the same question. Gideon, what do you, what do you think is going to happen here? First of all, it's very hard to foresee because finally it depends mainly on Donald Trump. I s..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 2030.47, "end": 2092.35, "time_label": "33:50", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "They always brought either immediate losses or losses for the long run like this fatal 1967 war which stacked us with this horrible, damped occupation until this very moment. Wars don't serve interest for the long run a..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 2092.49, "end": 2153.29, "time_label": "34:52", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Is Gaza a more stable place? Is the danger of Gaza smaller or bigger for the long run? Same will be here and I'm very sorry to say it because they always say that I always spoil all those parties. No, it's not a party...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Talabani says some U.S. military objectives may already have been achieved, but the Iranian regime shows no signs of cracking and there is still no meaningful uprising.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "temporal_scope": "Military-political assessment on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "military objectives", "uprising", "regime durability" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 2153.41, "end": 2221.53, "time_label": "35:53", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "He's the president of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. Mr. Talabani, thank you very much indeed for joining me on Uncensored. I know you spoke to President Trump a few days ago. What is your overview about where we are..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Talabani argues revolt is inhibited by a three-pronged fear: bombs, regime repression, and the example of nearby states such as Afghanistan, Syria, Armenia, Turkmenistan, and Iraq collapsing into prolonged disorder.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "temporal_scope": "Social-psychological explanation on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "uprising", "fear", "regional collapse", "middle class" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2223.4, "end": 2274.4, "time_label": "37:03", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Yeah, I mean, that's the thing that I've been looking for, which is, you know, where is the rising up of the people? You know, there was a belief that maybe the Kurds were going to lead the rebellion and so on. But of c..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2274.4, "end": 2341.82, "time_label": "37:54", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I would agree with that, but I would add another prong. I think there's three prongs of concern. One of them is the zip code, the postcode, sorry, that Iran is in. Just look at the recent years, Iran is in. The postcode..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Talabani rejects reports of CIA-backed Kurdish incursions and says making Kurds the tip of the spear would be disastrous because Kurds are a minority inside Iran and such a move would trigger Turkish and Iranian backlash.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "temporal_scope": "Regional warning on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "Kurds", "CIA", "Turkey", "separatism" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 2342.02, "end": 2412.14, "time_label": "39:02", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "If that doesn't happen, can the United States legitimately claim victory? Judging by some of the statements that were made, the initial objectives militarily, I think some of them have been achieved. Victory for Mr. Tru..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2412.36, "end": 2468.02, "time_label": "40:12", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Can you say anything about that? I can. This is categorically not the case, at least in this side of Iraqi Kurdistan. Also, please remember the Kurds make up less than 10 % of the Iranian population of 92 million. Of th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Talabani says Iraq is in a better place now than in earlier years, but only after twenty years of relentless combat and deep regional suffering.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective judgment offered on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "Iraq", "regime change", "long war" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 2534.64, "end": 2586, "time_label": "42:14", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "What a remarkable moment in history that was. You know, I was editor of the Daily Mirror newspaper in the UK which took a very strong position against that war. And for a very long time, I felt thoroughly vindicated. So..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 2586, "end": 2640.22, "time_label": "43:06", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "said, there's been enough blood spilled, but it's taken us 20 years of relentless combat to get to today. And it's been a long time. The Middle East has suffered a lot. Yeah, it has. And it's actually very sad to see it..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the U.S. and Iran are fighting different wars: America is trying to degrade military capacity while Iran is trying to strangle the world economy through GCC pressure and Hormuz disruption.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "temporal_scope": "Strategic assessment as of 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "war of attrition", "GCC", "Hormuz", "world economy" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2711.07, "end": 2775.04, "time_label": "45:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "right now doesn't have the manpower, the manufacturing capacity, and the political will to fight a long war of attrition on the ground in Iran. Right. So I think because of what you said at the end there, it's highly un..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts that if the United States sends ground forces into Iran, sunk-cost logic will lock it into another Vietnam because it lacks the manpower, manufacturing capacity, and political will for a long ground war.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction about the war's future on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "ground forces", "Vietnam", "sunk cost fallacy", "U.S. capacity" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2711.07, "end": 2775.04, "time_label": "45:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "right now doesn't have the manpower, the manufacturing capacity, and the political will to fight a long war of attrition on the ground in Iran. Right. So I think because of what you said at the end there, it's highly un..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that even an American withdrawal without ground war would be dire because GCC states would reorient financially, petrodollar support would weaken, and the U.S. economy could face collapse and domestic unrest.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055" ], "temporal_scope": "Conditional forecast on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "petrodollar", "U.S. collapse", "domestic unrest", "withdrawal" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2711.07, "end": 2775.04, "time_label": "45:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "right now doesn't have the manpower, the manufacturing capacity, and the political will to fight a long war of attrition on the ground in Iran. Right. So I think because of what you said at the end there, it's highly un..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2775.26, "end": 2850.16, "time_label": "46:15", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Now, let's assume that Trump does withdraw from the Middle East. And what happens is that the G.C.C. nations of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, now are going to Iran because they supply the world with their oil..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 2850.16, "end": 2916.87, "time_label": "47:30", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": ". And this means that these young men could not afford their own offense anymore and this could lead to a revolution in the streets. So the consequences for America were dire if America were to retreat from the Middle E..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says prolonged Hormuz closure would rapidly hit food, travel, semiconductors, and oil prices, forcing future economies toward de-industrialization and mercantilism to survive shocks.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction about near-term economic consequences on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "de-industrialization", "mercantilism", "food", "oil" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 2850.16, "end": 2916.87, "time_label": "47:30", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": ". And this means that these young men could not afford their own offense anymore and this could lead to a revolution in the streets. So the consequences for America were dire if America were to retreat from the Middle E..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 2916.87, "end": 2981.87, "time_label": "48:36", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "remember food is produced by fertilizer which comes from the gcc as well as sulfuric acid which which is which helps the process of semiconductor production so artificial intelligence uh food production uh global travel..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says GCC states are structurally fragile because they rely on imported food, desalination, expat labor, tourism prestige, and American security guarantees, making Iran's current pressure an existential threat to their business model.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059" ], "temporal_scope": "Strategic diagnosis on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "GCC", "Dubai", "desalination", "Pax Americana" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 2981.87, "end": 3045.64, "time_label": "49:41", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "so if you go to southeast asia vietnam and thailand have already ordered the government workers to work from home in order to save fuel you've pointed out that the gulf corporation has been a very successful market for..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 3045.64, "end": 3114.41, "time_label": "50:45", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "deploying uh including the threats to desalination um but also targeting obviously targeted hotels and uh an airport and so on going to the heart of what the states there would like to see as the future of their economy..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 3114.41, "end": 3176.61, "time_label": "51:54", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "of america to project around the world and provide security guarantees uh to the gcc now this aura of inviability and invincibility of american empire has been shattered and once an illusion is shattered there's actuall..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues the war is aimed not merely at Israel or Gulf monarchies but at American empire itself, because shattering the aura of American invincibility also shatters the political-economic order built on it.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059" ], "temporal_scope": "Imperial diagnosis on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "American empire", "imperial illusion", "global order" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 3114.41, "end": 3176.61, "time_label": "51:54", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "of america to project around the world and provide security guarantees uh to the gcc now this aura of inviability and invincibility of american empire has been shattered and once an illusion is shattered there's actuall..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang claims that a collection of eschatological societies and movements, including Christian Zionists, interpret Middle East war as the trigger for a sequence leading through Greater Israel, AI surveillance, temple restoration, diaspora return, and messianic or apocalyptic culmination.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061" ], "temporal_scope": "Speculative explanatory model asserted on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "eschatology", "Greater Israel", "AI surveillance", "Christian Zionism" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "segment_id": "seg-0060", "start": 3176.61, "end": 3248.21, "time_label": "52:56", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "that trump is not the most powerful person in america and you've inferred that actually the real power base is israel explain that right so actually don't say the real power base is um israel what i say is that the real..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 3248.43, "end": 3304.97, "time_label": "54:08", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "This war in the Middle East will lead to the defeat of the American Empire, and this will lead to the culmination of the Greater Israel Project, where Israel is able to control the Middle East from the Nile to the Euphr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang defends speculative predictive modeling by arguing that if a controversial theory yields correct predictions, that predictive success grants the theory at least provisional legitimacy.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063" ], "temporal_scope": "Methodological self-description on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "predictive modeling", "speculation", "method" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3304.99, "end": 3368.88, "time_label": "55:04", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "What do you say to that? Look, I completely sympathize with this argument. Five years ago, I would have said the same thing about this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3369.66, "end": 3426.3, "time_label": "56:09", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Christian Zionists are heavily embedded in the national security apparatus and in the Pentagon. There's reporting that US commanders have told their troops that this is a war to bring back Jesus. And so I think that's i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Christian Zionist influence inside the United States is a necessary part of his explanation for why the predicted Iran war happened at all.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063" ], "temporal_scope": "Causal explanation offered on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "Christian Zionism", "United States", "causal explanation" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3304.99, "end": 3368.88, "time_label": "55:04", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "What do you say to that? Look, I completely sympathize with this argument. Five years ago, I would have said the same thing about this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3369.66, "end": 3426.3, "time_label": "56:09", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Christian Zionists are heavily embedded in the national security apparatus and in the Pentagon. There's reporting that US commanders have told their troops that this is a war to bring back Jesus. And so I think that's i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "signature_moments": [ { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "moment": "Victory for Iran is defined almost negatively: surviving intact is enough.", "source_phrase": "If the regime survives with its autonomy, Iran will claim victory.", "why_it_matters": "It gives the interview its first clear asymmetry in war aims and explains why the U.S. can lose despite overwhelming firepower.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 149, "end": 195.743, "time_label": "2:29", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "If the regime survives with its autonomy, Iran will claim victory. Victory for the United States and Israel is a lot more complicated. Many roads do seem to lead to a new Iran, which is a lot like the old Iran, but even..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "moment": "Rob turns abstract war cheerleading back into the image of a person trapped under a bombed building.", "source_phrase": "under rubble, burning for a long, long time, suffocating, maybe", "why_it_matters": "It preserves the human cost that punctures the panel's more strategic or ideological language.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 344.48, "end": 385.22, "time_label": "5:44", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "do have guys at the Tier 1 level with the designation to take out military sites and inspect them, maybe. But again, like your previous guest was saying, you get boots on the ground, that's what the— I hate the word qua..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "moment": "Rob rebukes cinematic war language by reducing combat back to the instant where bullets and explosions kill you once.", "source_phrase": "they only need to be right once", "why_it_matters": "It condenses his realism about violence and counters the media-aesthetic register of the war.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 430.98, "end": 478.86, "time_label": "7:10", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "are pumping out kind of movie -style promos about this war, almost like this is not real. This is like a movie we're watching. I've got to say, as someone who's had a lot of family myself who've gone to combat in war, I..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "moment": "Mills collapses the visible Iran war into a larger hidden economic war over currency and trade corridors.", "source_phrase": "their goal from the very beginning ... was always to eliminate the U.S. dollar as a global currency", "why_it_matters": "This is his core explanatory move for why the mission remains worth the risk despite obvious oil and economic pain.", "tone": "causal-chain", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 658.53, "end": 707.46, "time_label": "10:58", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "But it's also true that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, pretty well completely closed, if that goes on for much longer, the enormous damage that is causing to the global economy coupled with the attacks they've bee..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 707.46, "end": 749.53, "time_label": "11:47", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "dollar as a global currency. Not to mention the fact that China had a lot at stake on this. What they wanted to do with the Belt and Road Initiative was have Russia start the war in Ukraine to expand the Eurasian border..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "moment": "Ryan reduces the regime-change fantasy to childish scripting that kills actual children.", "source_phrase": "made up by elementary school students ... targeting and killing elementary school students", "why_it_matters": "The line preserves his moral attack on Mills's simplification and ties it back to the school-strike opening.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 887.14, "end": 938.99, "time_label": "14:47", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I guess we know it, Piers. Sorry? I said it's just very complex, Piers, to get into a 30 -second segment. No, no. Listen, I totally respect that, but we have obviously got four panelists. I want to bring in Ryan Grim be..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "moment": "Ryan marks the novelty of a wartime presidency where nearly half the country thinks the war serves another country.", "source_phrase": "nearly half the country believing ... that he did it for a different country", "why_it_matters": "It captures his central political claim about legitimacy collapse.", "tone": "causal-chain", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1044.94, "end": 1101.71, "time_label": "17:24", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "that Trump was more responsive when it came to the war in Iran to Benjamin Netanyahu than he was to the American public. I think 47 % said he was more responsive to the American people than to Benjamin Netanyahu. So as..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "moment": "Gideon turns the war's scorecard into three humiliating questions about whether anything is actually better than it was two weeks earlier.", "source_phrase": "Is the world a better place today than two weeks ago, for God's sake?", "why_it_matters": "It compresses his whole anti-war test into a repeatable criterion rather than a geopolitical theory.", "tone": "question", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1273.42, "end": 1344.98, "time_label": "21:13", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "They are totally not in this formula of comparing utility and price. No. They must be remembered. Now, coming back to your question, Piers, Israel went to this war without having a very clear endgame. They saw an opport..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "moment": "He compares 94 percent wartime approval to North Korea.", "source_phrase": "Those are North Korean figures.", "why_it_matters": "This gives the packet its sharpest judgment on Israeli public psychology.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1345.46, "end": 1410.91, "time_label": "22:25", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Surprise, surprise. 94 % of the Israeli Jews support this war. Can you believe it? Those are people who pay a price for this war. 94. Those are North Korean figures. Only in North Korea you get, on any issue, 94 % suppo..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "moment": "Mills compresses his argument into a formula: energy is the real global currency.", "source_phrase": "Energy is a global currency.", "why_it_matters": "This line is the hinge between his anti-Iran, anti-China, and pro-war claims.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1608.22, "end": 1652.82, "time_label": "26:48", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Are you worried politically about this if it carries on much longer? Well, let me just go ahead and touch on something. And Rob had talked about it, and it's been severed, like, many times about oil and economics. What..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "moment": "Ryan imagines China sitting back and taking notes while America exhausts itself.", "source_phrase": "China is sitting back ... They're taking notes as we exhaust ourselves.", "why_it_matters": "It sharply inverts Mills's claim that this war strengthens the U.S. position against China.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 1912.14, "end": 1971.84, "time_label": "31:52", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "a catastrophe for the United States, and it's a catastrophe for the people in Tehran who are seeing, you know, this indiscriminate bombing. There was just a residential building that was triple -tapped. The people of Ir..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0047" ], "moment": "Talabani names the psychic damage of the assassination as a wound that may never heal.", "source_phrase": "a wound from Excalibur, a wound that never heals", "why_it_matters": "This metaphor preserves his sense that even a tactically successful operation can poison a country for years.", "tone": "metaphor", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 2342.02, "end": 2412.14, "time_label": "39:02", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "If that doesn't happen, can the United States legitimately claim victory? Judging by some of the statements that were made, the initial objectives militarily, I think some of them have been achieved. Victory for Mr. Tru..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "moment": "Gideon mocks Israel's assassination glamour as James Bond theater.", "source_phrase": "James Bond operations", "why_it_matters": "It captures his contrast between tactical spectacle and strategic emptiness.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 2030.47, "end": 2092.35, "time_label": "33:50", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "They always brought either immediate losses or losses for the long run like this fatal 1967 war which stacked us with this horrible, damped occupation until this very moment. Wars don't serve interest for the long run a..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "moment": "Jiang makes the U.S. defeat hinge on sunk-cost dynamics rather than battlefield inferiority alone.", "source_phrase": "The sunk cost fallacy kicks in. It'll be another Vietnam", "why_it_matters": "This is his first compact explanation of why the stronger empire still loses.", "tone": "causal-chain", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "moment": "He says the global economy has already crossed a point of no return after only two weeks of closure.", "source_phrase": "we've reached the point of no return", "why_it_matters": "It captures Jiang's escalation from tactical disruption to civilizational economic reset.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 2916.87, "end": 2981.87, "time_label": "48:36", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "remember food is produced by fertilizer which comes from the gcc as well as sulfuric acid which which is which helps the process of semiconductor production so artificial intelligence uh food production uh global travel..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059" ], "moment": "Jiang says the war's deepest target is the illusion of American empire itself.", "source_phrase": "this aura of inviability and invincibility of american empire has been shattered", "why_it_matters": "This is the bridge between his GCC analysis and his later eschatology: the war is about destroying imperial confidence, not only damaging assets.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 3114.41, "end": 3176.61, "time_label": "51:54", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "of america to project around the world and provide security guarantees uh to the gcc now this aura of inviability and invincibility of american empire has been shattered and once an illusion is shattered there's actuall..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061" ], "moment": "He compresses an apocalyptic geopolitical sequence into one scripted arc.", "source_phrase": "they have the script scripted out", "why_it_matters": "The phrase captures Jiang's sense that visible events are conforming to a prewritten eschatological program.", "tone": "metaphor", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 3248.43, "end": 3304.97, "time_label": "54:08", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "This war in the Middle East will lead to the defeat of the American Empire, and this will lead to the culmination of the Greater Israel Project, where Israel is able to control the Middle East from the Nile to the Euphr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "predictions": [ { "claim": "Ryan says the war is politically dangerous for Trump because it is already unpopular, worsening inflation and gas prices, and undermining the claim that he acts for U.S. interests.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "temporal_scope": "Political forecast as of 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "Trump", "unpopular war", "inflation", "gas prices" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1044.94, "end": 1101.71, "time_label": "17:24", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "that Trump was more responsive when it came to the war in Iran to Benjamin Netanyahu than he was to the American public. I think 47 % said he was more responsive to the American people than to Benjamin Netanyahu. So as..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1101.89, "end": 1154.51, "time_label": "18:21", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "They're particularly concerned because they've already still got inflation, still got rising costs. They've seen prices at the gas pump now rocketing in the last two weeks. This is the biggest turmoil for oil prices in..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts that if the United States sends ground forces into Iran, sunk-cost logic will lock it into another Vietnam because it lacks the manpower, manufacturing capacity, and political will for a long ground war.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction about the war's future on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "ground forces", "Vietnam", "sunk cost fallacy", "U.S. capacity" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2711.07, "end": 2775.04, "time_label": "45:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "right now doesn't have the manpower, the manufacturing capacity, and the political will to fight a long war of attrition on the ground in Iran. Right. So I think because of what you said at the end there, it's highly un..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that even an American withdrawal without ground war would be dire because GCC states would reorient financially, petrodollar support would weaken, and the U.S. economy could face collapse and domestic unrest.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055" ], "temporal_scope": "Conditional forecast on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "petrodollar", "U.S. collapse", "domestic unrest", "withdrawal" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2711.07, "end": 2775.04, "time_label": "45:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "right now doesn't have the manpower, the manufacturing capacity, and the political will to fight a long war of attrition on the ground in Iran. Right. So I think because of what you said at the end there, it's highly un..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2775.26, "end": 2850.16, "time_label": "46:15", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Now, let's assume that Trump does withdraw from the Middle East. And what happens is that the G.C.C. nations of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, now are going to Iran because they supply the world with their oil..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 2850.16, "end": 2916.87, "time_label": "47:30", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": ". And this means that these young men could not afford their own offense anymore and this could lead to a revolution in the streets. So the consequences for America were dire if America were to retreat from the Middle E..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says prolonged Hormuz closure would rapidly hit food, travel, semiconductors, and oil prices, forcing future economies toward de-industrialization and mercantilism to survive shocks.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction about near-term economic consequences on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "de-industrialization", "mercantilism", "food", "oil" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 2850.16, "end": 2916.87, "time_label": "47:30", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": ". And this means that these young men could not afford their own offense anymore and this could lead to a revolution in the streets. So the consequences for America were dire if America were to retreat from the Middle E..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 2916.87, "end": 2981.87, "time_label": "48:36", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "remember food is produced by fertilizer which comes from the gcc as well as sulfuric acid which which is which helps the process of semiconductor production so artificial intelligence uh food production uh global travel..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "models": [ { "claim": "Piers argues Iran's threshold for victory is low because simple regime survival with autonomy is enough for Tehran to claim success, while American-Israeli victory would require a much more demanding transformation of Iran.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "temporal_scope": "Opening diagnosis of the war on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "Iran war", "victory conditions", "regime survival" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 96.67, "end": 148.9, "time_label": "1:36", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "And as we take decisive action to stop the threat posed by the terrorist regime in Iran with Operation Epic Fury. Is that a great name? Well, it's only good if you win. You know, you can only do it. And we've won. Let m..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 149, "end": 195.743, "time_label": "2:29", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "If the regime survives with its autonomy, Iran will claim victory. Victory for the United States and Israel is a lot more complicated. Many roads do seem to lead to a new Iran, which is a lot like the old Iran, but even..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Mills reframes the conflict as part of a preexisting geopolitical alignment among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea whose long goal is to displace the U.S. dollar and constrain American logistics and power projection.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "temporal_scope": "Strategic model asserted on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "U.S. dollar", "China", "Belt and Road", "economic warfare" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 658.53, "end": 707.46, "time_label": "10:58", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "But it's also true that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, pretty well completely closed, if that goes on for much longer, the enormous damage that is causing to the global economy coupled with the attacks they've bee..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 707.46, "end": 749.53, "time_label": "11:47", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "dollar as a global currency. Not to mention the fact that China had a lot at stake on this. What they wanted to do with the Belt and Road Initiative was have Russia start the war in Ukraine to expand the Eurasian border..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Mills argues the war can avoid becoming Iraq or Afghanistan because coordinated strikes can remove imminent threats, weaken the IRGC, and hand the country to a transitional figure such as Reza Pahlavi.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "temporal_scope": "War-supporting model asserted on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "regime change", "Reza Pahlavi", "IRGC", "nuclear threat" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 749.53, "end": 800, "time_label": "12:29", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "It's just that we kept calling them a great superpower resurgence. When it comes to the designation of this conflict or this hostility, let's go back to the 2011 OECD Obama days where Libya was actually utilizing the De..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 800.02, "end": 844.36, "time_label": "13:20", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "And guess what else we found out? We found out they had working hypersonic ballistic missiles. These are ballistic missiles that traveled over 15,000 plus miles per hour and have the ability to hit mock levels that we c..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 844.52, "end": 886.88, "time_label": "14:04", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "That's how easy it actually is. So denigrate the IRGC, eliminate the head of the snake, which is the Ayatollah, which we know there's multiple heads. Rob and I can tell you that you eliminate one terrorist organization,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Mills argues energy, not currency names, is the real global currency, and that destroying Iran's regime and constraining Chinese oil access would stabilize the region and eventually lower prices.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0035" ], "temporal_scope": "War-justifying geopolitical model on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "energy", "China", "oil", "regional stability" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1608.22, "end": 1652.82, "time_label": "26:48", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Are you worried politically about this if it carries on much longer? Well, let me just go ahead and touch on something. And Rob had talked about it, and it's been severed, like, many times about oil and economics. What..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 1652.92, "end": 1695.54, "time_label": "27:32", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "It's not. If you look at the geopolitical ramifications of the elimination of Maduro, that was 70 % of the oil that went to China. Iran is another 20 % that goes to China. That now potentially stops the unification of T..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 1695.76, "end": 1741.97, "time_label": "28:15", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "So this is a momentary diversion, as Secretary of Energy Wright had said, that allows us to not only try and help to free innocent civilians who are dying, but not get boots on the ground. This is not Iraq and Afghanist..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Talabani argues revolt is inhibited by a three-pronged fear: bombs, regime repression, and the example of nearby states such as Afghanistan, Syria, Armenia, Turkmenistan, and Iraq collapsing into prolonged disorder.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "temporal_scope": "Social-psychological explanation on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "uprising", "fear", "regional collapse", "middle class" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 2223.4, "end": 2274.4, "time_label": "37:03", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Yeah, I mean, that's the thing that I've been looking for, which is, you know, where is the rising up of the people? You know, there was a belief that maybe the Kurds were going to lead the rebellion and so on. But of c..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2274.4, "end": 2341.82, "time_label": "37:54", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I would agree with that, but I would add another prong. I think there's three prongs of concern. One of them is the zip code, the postcode, sorry, that Iran is in. Just look at the recent years, Iran is in. The postcode..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the U.S. and Iran are fighting different wars: America is trying to degrade military capacity while Iran is trying to strangle the world economy through GCC pressure and Hormuz disruption.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053" ], "temporal_scope": "Strategic assessment as of 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "war of attrition", "GCC", "Hormuz", "world economy" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 2711.07, "end": 2775.04, "time_label": "45:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "right now doesn't have the manpower, the manufacturing capacity, and the political will to fight a long war of attrition on the ground in Iran. Right. So I think because of what you said at the end there, it's highly un..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says GCC states are structurally fragile because they rely on imported food, desalination, expat labor, tourism prestige, and American security guarantees, making Iran's current pressure an existential threat to their business model.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059" ], "temporal_scope": "Strategic diagnosis on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "GCC", "Dubai", "desalination", "Pax Americana" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0057", "segment_id": "seg-0057", "start": 2981.87, "end": 3045.64, "time_label": "49:41", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "so if you go to southeast asia vietnam and thailand have already ordered the government workers to work from home in order to save fuel you've pointed out that the gulf corporation has been a very successful market for..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0058", "segment_id": "seg-0058", "start": 3045.64, "end": 3114.41, "time_label": "50:45", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "deploying uh including the threats to desalination um but also targeting obviously targeted hotels and uh an airport and so on going to the heart of what the states there would like to see as the future of their economy..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 3114.41, "end": 3176.61, "time_label": "51:54", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "of america to project around the world and provide security guarantees uh to the gcc now this aura of inviability and invincibility of american empire has been shattered and once an illusion is shattered there's actuall..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang claims that a collection of eschatological societies and movements, including Christian Zionists, interpret Middle East war as the trigger for a sequence leading through Greater Israel, AI surveillance, temple restoration, diaspora return, and messianic or apocalyptic culmination.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061" ], "temporal_scope": "Speculative explanatory model asserted on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "eschatology", "Greater Israel", "AI surveillance", "Christian Zionism" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "segment_id": "seg-0060", "start": 3176.61, "end": 3248.21, "time_label": "52:56", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "that trump is not the most powerful person in america and you've inferred that actually the real power base is israel explain that right so actually don't say the real power base is um israel what i say is that the real..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 3248.43, "end": 3304.97, "time_label": "54:08", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "This war in the Middle East will lead to the defeat of the American Empire, and this will lead to the culmination of the Greater Israel Project, where Israel is able to control the Middle East from the Nile to the Euphr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "diagnoses": [ { "claim": "Rob O'Neill says Iranian economic warfare is difficult to defeat and warns that even if the U.S. and Israel win tactically, a post-strike occupation would turn them into occupiers who steadily lose local support.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "temporal_scope": "Military assessment during the war on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "occupation", "quagmire", "economic warfare" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 250.7, "end": 306.04, "time_label": "4:10", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Well, welcome to all of you. Rob O 'Neill, welcome back again to Uncensored. Few people have had more experience of combat in the Middle East than you. And, of course, you killed Osama bin Laden. So I just want to ask y..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 307.12, "end": 344.48, "time_label": "5:07", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "You know, I was there for the invasion. 2003, I remember the buildup. I remember I was excited at the time because it's just right after 9 -11, and as a young Navy SEAL, especially a SEAL Team 6, I want to invade anywhe..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 344.48, "end": 385.22, "time_label": "5:44", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "do have guys at the Tier 1 level with the designation to take out military sites and inspect them, maybe. But again, like your previous guest was saying, you get boots on the ground, that's what the— I hate the word qua..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Mills says no one should get ahead of intelligence on the school strike and that the United States should conduct accountability review only after post-blast analysis and classified briefing establish what happened.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "temporal_scope": "Current-war response on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "school strike", "intelligence review", "accountability" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 526.83, "end": 567.22, "time_label": "8:46", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "It was, of course, next to a Revolutionary Guard base and used to be part of the base and then was moved, and it may be this was just a horrific accident, but it had enormous consequences. Would it not be the right thin..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 605.82, "end": 658.23, "time_label": "10:05", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I'm the Subcommittee Chair of the Oversight and Intelligence and Foreign Affairs Committee. So until I can actually get in there, I'm not going to get over my skis and start making comments, but I can tell you that if a..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Ryan Grim argues the war's official rationale keeps mutating and that this incoherence is politically visible to the public.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0022" ], "temporal_scope": "Political diagnosis on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "war rationale", "public opinion", "regime change", "nuclear program" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 939.11, "end": 992.34, "time_label": "15:39", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "That's what it's doing in the real world, in this, like, fantasy land. You're like, oh, get this bad guy, get this bad guy, get this bad guy, and, oh, Reza over here, who lives in Potomac, Maryland, we're going to, like..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 992.48, "end": 1044.94, "time_label": "16:32", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I don't think Marco Rubio misspoke. I just think they didn't appreciate it. They didn't appreciate quite how that was going to play out. Right. And because we haven't gotten a rationale that they have stuck to, initiall..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Gideon says Israel went to war without a clear endgame, under a post-October 7 mentality that force can solve everything, while disregarding the displaced millions who do not appear in oil-price cost-benefit talk.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "temporal_scope": "Israeli-war diagnosis on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "Israel", "endgame", "October 7", "displacement" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1154.65, "end": 1211.3, "time_label": "19:14", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "In fact, the Ayatollah's own son is reported to be the new supreme leader, although we haven't seen him. And coupled with that, there's a sense that Israel has a different objective here. That Israel will be quite happy..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1211.48, "end": 1273.1, "time_label": "20:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Israel turned into the notion that everything can be solved and everything is legitimate to be solved by force and by a lot of force, by unlimited force. We will change the leadership of the Middle East. First, we tried..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1273.42, "end": 1344.98, "time_label": "21:13", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "They are totally not in this formula of comparing utility and price. No. They must be remembered. Now, coming back to your question, Piers, Israel went to this war without having a very clear endgame. They saw an opport..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Rob O'Neill says a successful war might lower prices and stabilize the region, but he remains deeply cautious because preemption can repeat Iraq-like mistakes and because civilian victims still demand apology.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "temporal_scope": "Conflicted military-political judgment on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "preemption", "Iraq", "school strike", "economic cost" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 1467.02, "end": 1513.92, "time_label": "24:27", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Do you agree with that? I do, in theory, agree with it, that if it does work out, the prices of everything will go down because it will positively affect oil prices, and that, as we know, affects everything. I'm not......" }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 1513.96, "end": 1553.52, "time_label": "25:13", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "We had the Civil War, a million people died. Preemptive strikes, though, 2003. I went to Iraq. Turns out it wasn't the way to go. So, I mean, I'm very, very cautious. As the father of four daughters, and hearing a missi..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 1553.52, "end": 1607.96, "time_label": "25:53", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "this administration is doing what they think is the right thing for the future, not just of the country but of the West. Don't like war, hate cheering for war, but I'm watching. And, again, I'm trying to stay open -mind..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Ryan says the war benefits no one except perhaps Israel because it is exhausting American military power, immiserating civilians, and providing China a live tutorial in how the U.S. fights a conventional war.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "temporal_scope": "Current-war diagnosis on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "catastrophe", "China", "military exhaustion", "Israel" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 1868.3, "end": 1912.14, "time_label": "31:08", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "government from Northrop Grumman, from GED, and from others, go look at quantitative analysis and see how many stocks I've traded since I've been in office. Go look at how much I own since I've been in office and before..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 1912.14, "end": 1971.84, "time_label": "31:52", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "a catastrophe for the United States, and it's a catastrophe for the people in Tehran who are seeing, you know, this indiscriminate bombing. There was just a residential building that was triple -tapped. The people of Ir..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Gideon Levy says Israel has never truly benefited from its wars and that the present war will also leave long-run losses rather than security gains.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0043" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical-political diagnosis on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "Israel", "war outcomes", "occupation" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 1973.63, "end": 2030.19, "time_label": "32:53", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Well, let me, let me ask Gideon the same, the same question. Gideon, what do you, what do you think is going to happen here? First of all, it's very hard to foresee because finally it depends mainly on Donald Trump. I s..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 2030.47, "end": 2092.35, "time_label": "33:50", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "They always brought either immediate losses or losses for the long run like this fatal 1967 war which stacked us with this horrible, damped occupation until this very moment. Wars don't serve interest for the long run a..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 2092.49, "end": 2153.29, "time_label": "34:52", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Is Gaza a more stable place? Is the danger of Gaza smaller or bigger for the long run? Same will be here and I'm very sorry to say it because they always say that I always spoil all those parties. No, it's not a party...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Talabani says some U.S. military objectives may already have been achieved, but the Iranian regime shows no signs of cracking and there is still no meaningful uprising.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "temporal_scope": "Military-political assessment on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "military objectives", "uprising", "regime durability" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 2153.41, "end": 2221.53, "time_label": "35:53", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "He's the president of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. Mr. Talabani, thank you very much indeed for joining me on Uncensored. I know you spoke to President Trump a few days ago. What is your overview about where we are..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Talabani rejects reports of CIA-backed Kurdish incursions and says making Kurds the tip of the spear would be disastrous because Kurds are a minority inside Iran and such a move would trigger Turkish and Iranian backlash.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "temporal_scope": "Regional warning on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "Kurds", "CIA", "Turkey", "separatism" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 2342.02, "end": 2412.14, "time_label": "39:02", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "If that doesn't happen, can the United States legitimately claim victory? Judging by some of the statements that were made, the initial objectives militarily, I think some of them have been achieved. Victory for Mr. Tru..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2412.36, "end": 2468.02, "time_label": "40:12", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Can you say anything about that? I can. This is categorically not the case, at least in this side of Iraqi Kurdistan. Also, please remember the Kurds make up less than 10 % of the Iranian population of 92 million. Of th..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Talabani says Iraq is in a better place now than in earlier years, but only after twenty years of relentless combat and deep regional suffering.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "temporal_scope": "Retrospective judgment offered on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "Iraq", "regime change", "long war" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 2534.64, "end": 2586, "time_label": "42:14", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "What a remarkable moment in history that was. You know, I was editor of the Daily Mirror newspaper in the UK which took a very strong position against that war. And for a very long time, I felt thoroughly vindicated. So..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 2586, "end": 2640.22, "time_label": "43:06", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "said, there's been enough blood spilled, but it's taken us 20 years of relentless combat to get to today. And it's been a long time. The Middle East has suffered a lot. Yeah, it has. And it's actually very sad to see it..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues the war is aimed not merely at Israel or Gulf monarchies but at American empire itself, because shattering the aura of American invincibility also shatters the political-economic order built on it.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059" ], "temporal_scope": "Imperial diagnosis on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "American empire", "imperial illusion", "global order" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0059", "segment_id": "seg-0059", "start": 3114.41, "end": 3176.61, "time_label": "51:54", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "of america to project around the world and provide security guarantees uh to the gcc now this aura of inviability and invincibility of american empire has been shattered and once an illusion is shattered there's actuall..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Christian Zionist influence inside the United States is a necessary part of his explanation for why the predicted Iran war happened at all.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063" ], "temporal_scope": "Causal explanation offered on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "Christian Zionism", "United States", "causal explanation" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3304.99, "end": 3368.88, "time_label": "55:04", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "What do you say to that? Look, I completely sympathize with this argument. Five years ago, I would have said the same thing about this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3369.66, "end": 3426.3, "time_label": "56:09", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Christian Zionists are heavily embedded in the national security apparatus and in the Pentagon. There's reporting that US commanders have told their troops that this is a war to bring back Jesus. And so I think that's i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "other_claims": [ { "claim": "Piers treats the school strike as a moral and political liability, arguing that the United States should quickly admit responsibility and apologize if American forces caused it.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "temporal_scope": "Current-war normative judgment on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "school strike", "civilian casualties", "apology" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 195.743, "end": 250.58, "time_label": "3:15", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "We're going to have prosperity unlike anyone could ever imagine. Well, the problem with this kind of gleeful rhetoric about blowing the hell out of these people is that many of these people are innocent civilians. U.S...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Rob O'Neill rejects war-as-spectacle rhetoric, arguing that real combat is unlike movies or games and should not be cheered even by people who support the mission.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "temporal_scope": "Normative reflection during the war on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "war propaganda", "military culture", "spectacle" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 385.3, "end": 430.98, "time_label": "6:25", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Horrible stuff. This is not something to cheer. This is—war is the—should be the very end of a political means. I've been to war a lot. I'm not pro -war. I think there should be other ways to do it. I'm watching cautiou..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 430.98, "end": 478.86, "time_label": "7:10", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "are pumping out kind of movie -style promos about this war, almost like this is not real. This is like a movie we're watching. I've got to say, as someone who's had a lot of family myself who've gone to combat in war, I..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Ryan cites polling suggesting large shares of likely voters think Trump entered the war to distract from the Epstein scandal or to serve Netanyahu more than the American public.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "temporal_scope": "Current polling claim on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "polling", "Epstein scandal", "Netanyahu", "America First" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 992.48, "end": 1044.94, "time_label": "16:32", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I don't think Marco Rubio misspoke. I just think they didn't appreciate it. They didn't appreciate quite how that was going to play out. Right. And because we haven't gotten a rationale that they have stuck to, initiall..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1044.94, "end": 1101.71, "time_label": "17:24", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "that Trump was more responsive when it came to the war in Iran to Benjamin Netanyahu than he was to the American public. I think 47 % said he was more responsive to the American people than to Benjamin Netanyahu. So as..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Gideon reports overwhelming Israeli Jewish support for the war and treats it as evidence of a deeper social pathology after years of Gaza warfare.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "temporal_scope": "Current public-opinion claim on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "Israeli society", "public opinion", "Gaza" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1345.46, "end": 1410.91, "time_label": "22:25", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Surprise, surprise. 94 % of the Israeli Jews support this war. Can you believe it? Those are people who pay a price for this war. 94. Those are North Korean figures. Only in North Korea you get, on any issue, 94 % suppo..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Ryan implies Mills's economic reading is compromised by defense-sector interest, while Mills answers that he does not own or profit from an arms company and that war does not benefit him personally.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0039" ], "temporal_scope": "Conflict-of-interest dispute on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "arms industry", "conflict of interest", "war profits" ], "claim_type": "other", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 1695.76, "end": 1741.97, "time_label": "28:15", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "So this is a momentary diversion, as Secretary of Energy Wright had said, that allows us to not only try and help to free innocent civilians who are dying, but not get boots on the ground. This is not Iraq and Afghanist..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 1742.09, "end": 1786.88, "time_label": "29:02", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Congressman, correct me if I'm wrong. You... You're an arms trafficker, no? No, I'm not actually. I don't actually own a company, and I actually have divested a blind trust. I'm also the only member of Congress who actu..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 1786.96, "end": 1828.71, "time_label": "29:46", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "That's okay. When I went into the military, I had nothing as well. And I'm just proud to be able to go ahead and serve the American people. And you can keep trying to play your foreign policy economic elementary 101, bu..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 1828.71, "end": 1868.3, "time_label": "30:28", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "can tell you that when I was there, the only thing that we did was work the U.S. government to help to defeat ISIS, who was in Fallujah and Mosul, who had held that for three -plus years, raping and imprisoning young wo..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 1868.3, "end": 1912.14, "time_label": "31:08", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "government from Northrop Grumman, from GED, and from others, go look at quantitative analysis and see how many stocks I've traded since I've been in office. Go look at how much I own since I've been in office and before..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang defends speculative predictive modeling by arguing that if a controversial theory yields correct predictions, that predictive success grants the theory at least provisional legitimacy.", "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063" ], "temporal_scope": "Methodological self-description on 2026-03-12.", "topic_tags": [ "predictive modeling", "speculation", "method" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3304.99, "end": 3368.88, "time_label": "55:04", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "What do you say to that? Look, I completely sympathize with this argument. Five years ago, I would have said the same thing about this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3369.66, "end": 3426.3, "time_label": "56:09", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Christian Zionists are heavily embedded in the national security apparatus and in the Pentagon. There's reporting that US commanders have told their troops that this is a war to bring back Jesus. And so I think that's i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "glossary_terms": [ { "term": "AAR", "usages": [ "After-action review; Mills invokes it as the standard process for military accountability after a strike or operation." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 605.82, "end": 658.23, "time_label": "10:05", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I'm the Subcommittee Chair of the Oversight and Intelligence and Foreign Affairs Committee. So until I can actually get in there, I'm not going to get over my skis and start making comments, but I can tell you that if a..." } ] }, { "term": "America First legitimacy crisis", "usages": [ "Ryan's point that a president who campaigned on national priority now faces mass suspicion that he entered war for someone else's agenda." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1044.94, "end": 1101.71, "time_label": "17:24", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "that Trump was more responsive when it came to the war in Iran to Benjamin Netanyahu than he was to the American public. I think 47 % said he was more responsive to the American people than to Benjamin Netanyahu. So as..." } ] }, { "term": "economic warfare", "usages": [ "Mills's frame for Chinese and allied strategy: logistics, minerals, shipping chokepoints, and currency displacement matter as much as battlefield action." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 707.46, "end": 749.53, "time_label": "11:47", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "dollar as a global currency. Not to mention the fact that China had a lot at stake on this. What they wanted to do with the Belt and Road Initiative was have Russia start the war in Ukraine to expand the Eurasian border..." } ] }, { "term": "energy as global currency", "usages": [ "Mills's shorthand for a geopolitical worldview where oil flows and energy infrastructure matter more than named fiat currencies." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 1608.22, "end": 1652.82, "time_label": "26:48", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Are you worried politically about this if it carries on much longer? Well, let me just go ahead and touch on something. And Rob had talked about it, and it's been severed, like, many times about oil and economics. What..." } ] }, { "term": "force-first doctrine", "usages": [ "Gideon's description of the post-October 7 Israeli belief that every problem is legitimate to solve by escalating force." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1211.48, "end": 1273.1, "time_label": "20:11", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Israel turned into the notion that everything can be solved and everything is legitimate to be solved by force and by a lot of force, by unlimited force. We will change the leadership of the Middle East. First, we tried..." } ] }, { "term": "Pax Judaica", "usages": [ "Jiang's name for a future order in which Greater Israel and AI surveillance combine into a new imperial regime." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 3248.43, "end": 3304.97, "time_label": "54:08", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "This war in the Middle East will lead to the defeat of the American Empire, and this will lead to the culmination of the Greater Israel Project, where Israel is able to control the Middle East from the Nile to the Euphr..." } ] }, { "term": "predictive modeling", "usages": [ "Jiang's method of floating speculative theories and judging them by whether their predictions about future events are borne out." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3304.99, "end": 3368.88, "time_label": "55:04", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "What do you say to that? Look, I completely sympathize with this argument. Five years ago, I would have said the same thing about this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm..." } ] }, { "term": "quagmire", "usages": [ "Rob uses the Iraq comparison to name the trap where tactical success becomes open-ended occupation and political failure." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 344.48, "end": 385.22, "time_label": "5:44", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "do have guys at the Tier 1 level with the designation to take out military sites and inspect them, maybe. But again, like your previous guest was saying, you get boots on the ground, that's what the— I hate the word qua..." } ] }, { "term": "sunk cost fallacy", "usages": [ "The political mechanism Jiang says would keep the U.S. trapped once it commits ground forces to Iran." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." } ] }, { "term": "tip of the spear", "usages": [ "Talabani's phrase for using Kurdish groups as the leading ground proxy against Iran, which he calls an absolute disaster." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 2412.36, "end": 2468.02, "time_label": "40:12", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Can you say anything about that? I can. This is categorically not the case, at least in this side of Iraqi Kurdistan. Also, please remember the Kurds make up less than 10 % of the Iranian population of 92 million. Of th..." } ] }, { "term": "war of attrition", "usages": [ "Jiang's frame for a conflict where the U.S. targets military capacity while Iran targets the economic conditions sustaining empire." ], "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 2641.22, "end": 2711.07, "time_label": "44:01", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Hi, Piers. Let me start with these three big predictions because you've been proven obviously completely right about two of them. And the third one is now unfurling before our eyes. Are you confident that you'll be prov..." } ] } ], "chronology_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "note": "The opening frame explicitly treats the present war through the memory of Iraq and through same-day claims that Trump has already 'won,' so the packet is anchored in a still-unfolding conflict rather than retrospective history.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 50.35, "end": 95.56, "time_label": "0:50", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "He's never met a war that he doesn't love. And he just gets giddy, excited like a guy who's going to make a bunch of money when we bomb a bunch of people because that's what he does. President Bush. Bush famously landed..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 96.67, "end": 148.9, "time_label": "1:36", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "And as we take decisive action to stop the threat posed by the terrorist regime in Iran with Operation Epic Fury. Is that a great name? Well, it's only good if you win. You know, you can only do it. And we've won. Let m..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "note": "The school-strike discussion is treated as unresolved breaking wartime news, so the packet preserves the uncertainty around attribution rather than resolving it.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 479.54, "end": 526.73, "time_label": "7:59", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "And I'm all in with Pete Hegseth. This is what we needed. I like the way he does it. I like the way he works out with the troops and has a morale high. The media doesn't like him. I mean, most of the media, that says he..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 526.83, "end": 567.22, "time_label": "8:46", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "It was, of course, next to a Revolutionary Guard base and used to be part of the base and then was moved, and it may be this was just a horrific accident, but it had enormous consequences. Would it not be the right thin..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "note": "Ryan's reading is explicitly tied to weekend polling and the first two weeks of war-driven price shocks, making it a tightly dated political snapshot.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 992.48, "end": 1044.94, "time_label": "16:32", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I don't think Marco Rubio misspoke. I just think they didn't appreciate it. They didn't appreciate quite how that was going to play out. Right. And because we haven't gotten a rationale that they have stuck to, initiall..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1101.89, "end": 1154.51, "time_label": "18:21", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "They're particularly concerned because they've already still got inflation, still got rising costs. They've seen prices at the gas pump now rocketing in the last two weeks. This is the biggest turmoil for oil prices in..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "note": "Gideon explicitly frames this war as backlash from October 7, 2023 and as downstream from two and a half years of Gaza war, so his claims are historical sequencing claims, not just present emotion.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1154.65, "end": 1211.3, "time_label": "19:14", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "In fact, the Ayatollah's own son is reported to be the new supreme leader, although we haven't seen him. And coupled with that, there's a sense that Israel has a different objective here. That Israel will be quite happy..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 1345.46, "end": 1410.91, "time_label": "22:25", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Surprise, surprise. 94 % of the Israeli Jews support this war. Can you believe it? Those are people who pay a price for this war. 94. Those are North Korean figures. Only in North Korea you get, on any issue, 94 % suppo..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "note": "Ryan's answer treats the war as already underway long enough for outside powers to observe U.S. methods and for multiple civilian atrocity reports to circulate.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 1868.3, "end": 1912.14, "time_label": "31:08", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "government from Northrop Grumman, from GED, and from others, go look at quantitative analysis and see how many stocks I've traded since I've been in office. Go look at how much I own since I've been in office and before..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 1912.14, "end": 1971.84, "time_label": "31:52", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "a catastrophe for the United States, and it's a catastrophe for the people in Tehran who are seeing, you know, this indiscriminate bombing. There was just a residential building that was triple -tapped. The people of Ir..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "note": "Both Gideon and Talabani anchor present choices in longer regional memories: 1948 and 1967 for Israel, and the recent fate of nearby collapsed states for Iranian citizens.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 1973.63, "end": 2030.19, "time_label": "32:53", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Well, let me, let me ask Gideon the same, the same question. Gideon, what do you, what do you think is going to happen here? First of all, it's very hard to foresee because finally it depends mainly on Donald Trump. I s..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 2274.4, "end": 2341.82, "time_label": "37:54", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "I would agree with that, but I would add another prong. I think there's three prongs of concern. One of them is the zip code, the postcode, sorry, that Iran is in. Just look at the recent years, Iran is in. The postcode..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "note": "Piers explicitly frames Jiang through predictions already validated by events, and Jiang repeatedly dates his diagnosis to the first two weeks of war and current Hormuz pressure.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": true, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 2586, "end": 2640.22, "time_label": "43:06", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "said, there's been enough blood spilled, but it's taken us 20 years of relentless combat to get to today. And it's been a long time. The Middle East has suffered a lot. Yeah, it has. And it's actually very sad to see it..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 2916.87, "end": 2981.87, "time_label": "48:36", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "remember food is produced by fertilizer which comes from the gcc as well as sulfuric acid which which is which helps the process of semiconductor production so artificial intelligence uh food production uh global travel..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063" ], "note": "Jiang explicitly ties this theory back to predictions he says he made in 2024, so the packet is partly a retrospective validation claim about earlier forecasting.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": true, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0062", "segment_id": "seg-0062", "start": 3304.99, "end": 3368.88, "time_label": "55:04", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "What do you say to that? Look, I completely sympathize with this argument. Five years ago, I would have said the same thing about this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3369.66, "end": 3426.3, "time_label": "56:09", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Christian Zionists are heavily embedded in the national security apparatus and in the Pentagon. There's reporting that US commanders have told their troops that this is a war to bring back Jesus. And so I think that's i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "uncertainty_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "note": "Some proper names and reported facts are mediated through host paraphrase and wartime reporting; keep attribution to the speakers rather than treating every detail as settled fact.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 96.67, "end": 148.9, "time_label": "1:36", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "And as we take decisive action to stop the threat posed by the terrorist regime in Iran with Operation Epic Fury. Is that a great name? Well, it's only good if you win. You know, you can only do it. And we've won. Let m..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 195.743, "end": 250.58, "time_label": "3:15", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "We're going to have prosperity unlike anyone could ever imagine. Well, the problem with this kind of gleeful rhetoric about blowing the hell out of these people is that many of these people are innocent civilians. U.S...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "note": "Mills's geopolitical answer contains likely ASR damage in place names and exaggerated causal links; preserve the strategic frame without normalizing every named detail.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 707.46, "end": 749.53, "time_label": "11:47", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "dollar as a global currency. Not to mention the fact that China had a lot at stake on this. What they wanted to do with the Belt and Road Initiative was have Russia start the war in Ukraine to expand the Eurasian border..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "note": "Mills's inventory of facilities, missiles, and legal authorities includes likely ASR corruption and contested factual premises; preserve it as his stated justification.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 749.53, "end": 800, "time_label": "12:29", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "It's just that we kept calling them a great superpower resurgence. When it comes to the designation of this conflict or this hostility, let's go back to the 2011 OECD Obama days where Libya was actually utilizing the De..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 800.02, "end": 844.36, "time_label": "13:20", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "And guess what else we found out? We found out they had working hypersonic ballistic missiles. These are ballistic missiles that traveled over 15,000 plus miles per hour and have the ability to hit mock levels that we c..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0025" ], "note": "The reported succession around the Ayatollah is presented as unverified wartime reporting and should remain attributed to the host's framing.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1154.65, "end": 1211.3, "time_label": "19:14", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "In fact, the Ayatollah's own son is reported to be the new supreme leader, although we haven't seen him. And coupled with that, there's a sense that Israel has a different objective here. That Israel will be quite happy..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "note": "The business-ownership exchange is adversarial and partly garbled by ASR; preserve the conflict without overclaiming the legal or financial facts.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 1742.09, "end": 1786.88, "time_label": "29:02", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Congressman, correct me if I'm wrong. You... You're an arms trafficker, no? No, I'm not actually. I don't actually own a company, and I actually have divested a blind trust. I'm also the only member of Congress who actu..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 1828.71, "end": 1868.3, "time_label": "30:28", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "can tell you that when I was there, the only thing that we did was work the U.S. government to help to defeat ISIS, who was in Fallujah and Mosul, who had held that for three -plus years, raping and imprisoning young wo..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0047" ], "note": "The transcript appears to blur whether the Supreme Leader was assassinated or whether assassination is a scenario under discussion; preserve Talabani's wording without hardening the event.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 2153.41, "end": 2221.53, "time_label": "35:53", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "He's the president of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. Mr. Talabani, thank you very much indeed for joining me on Uncensored. I know you spoke to President Trump a few days ago. What is your overview about where we are..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 2342.02, "end": 2412.14, "time_label": "39:02", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "If that doesn't happen, can the United States legitimately claim victory? Judging by some of the statements that were made, the initial objectives militarily, I think some of them have been achieved. Victory for Mr. Tru..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "note": "The transcript contains repeated ASR corruption around Hormuz, BRICS, and fertilizer chemistry; the macroeconomic logic is clear even where spellings are not.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 2775.26, "end": 2850.16, "time_label": "46:15", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Now, let's assume that Trump does withdraw from the Middle East. And what happens is that the G.C.C. nations of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, now are going to Iran because they supply the world with their oil..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 2916.87, "end": 2981.87, "time_label": "48:36", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "remember food is produced by fertilizer which comes from the gcc as well as sulfuric acid which which is which helps the process of semiconductor production so artificial intelligence uh food production uh global travel..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063" ], "note": "This packet contains Jiang's most speculative and ASR-fragile material, including esoteric group names and institution claims; preserve them as attributed theory rather than validated fact.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0060", "segment_id": "seg-0060", "start": 3176.61, "end": 3248.21, "time_label": "52:56", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "that trump is not the most powerful person in america and you've inferred that actually the real power base is israel explain that right so actually don't say the real power base is um israel what i say is that the real..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0061", "segment_id": "seg-0061", "start": 3248.43, "end": 3304.97, "time_label": "54:08", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "This war in the Middle East will lead to the defeat of the American Empire, and this will lead to the culmination of the Greater Israel Project, where Israel is able to control the Middle East from the Nile to the Euphr..." }, { "ref": "video:interview-obqsun0g0u4@transcript:v1#seg-0063", "segment_id": "seg-0063", "start": 3369.66, "end": 3426.3, "time_label": "56:09", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Christian Zionists are heavily embedded in the national security apparatus and in the Pentagon. There's reporting that US commanders have told their troops that this is a war to bring back Jesus. And so I think that's i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ] }