An Asimov-inspired ambition to mathematically model the past and present in order to predict the future.
Topic brief
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psychohistory
An Asimov-inspired ambition to mathematically model the past and present in order to predict the future.
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Key Notes
A proposed science of predicting the future by mathematically mapping human behavior and then using that prediction to guide events toward a better future.
Asimov's Foundation and psychohistory supply Jiang's long-term ambition: to build intellectual foundations for mathematically modeling the past and present in order to predict the future.
His long-term ambition is to create a school specializing in liberal arts and humanities that builds the foundations for psychohistory.
He defines psychohistory as the idea that the future can be predicted, controlled, and harnessed for humanity's betterment.
He says Asimov's Foundation imagines mathematical mapping of human behavior across immense time scales in order to manipulate events toward a better future.
He proposes using AI to go beyond cliodynamics by creating real psychohistory: a system able to analyze the past and predict the future.
He says psychohistory develops by combining multiple refined models, such as a war model and a Trump-election model.
He says societies prosper when they conform to the structure of the human heart and collapse when they repress it.
Jiang says constructing a valid psychohistory AI would require at least 50 to 100 years because the model must be repeatedly tested against predictions.
Timestamped Evidence
"...Foundation series. And in it, Isaac Asimov proposed the idea of psychohistory, which is the idea that we can mathematically model the present and..."
"Specifically, it's given me an opportunity to think about the possibilities of history. And over the course of teaching this course, I've decided that..."
"...kids. I love teaching and I really want to develop a psychohistory to its fullest possibility. So my long -term ambition is actually to..."
"I want this school to be the best ever. I want this to be like Plato's Academy. I want this to be like the..."
"...this is what we call energy. This is what we call psychohistory. And psychohistory is the idea that the future can be predicted. And..."
"...it. And in the Foundation books, he introduces the idea of psychohistory. And so, this book is set in the future, like a million..."
"...And we can harness the power of AI to create real psychohistory. Which is the ability to not just analyze the past, but to..."
"...these models together, what eventually happens over time is you develop psychohistory."
"We will want to kill, okay? And so, in other words, one idea in this AI model is that there is a fundamental underlying..."
"For children? For pregnant women? Okay? When you go to the park, do people actually pick up garbage and throw it in the garbage..."
"Okay. So, Sally asked the question, like, how do you construct this? This AI. Okay? And so, for this AI to be valid, okay,..."
"If they're not correct, what you have to do is go away. You have to change these predictions, okay? And analysis. Okay? Does that..."
Relevant Lectures And Readings
Jiang explains the channel from the inside: a teacher leaving Beijing, watching Iran and Israel move toward world war, and trying to turn a student review archive into a new history that can explain...
The final class turns collapse into an assignment: build a democratic psychohistory that can model war, correct history, answer great-man edge cases, and still preserve the human heart that wants to love, create, learn,...
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