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The failed imperial examination candidate is not an accident outside the system; he is what the system manufactures.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "marks": [ { "text": "If everyone is a teacher, no one is a teacher.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0007" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 393.04, "end": 475.58, "time_label": "6:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it's a really interesting idea. Is the reason why societies collapse in the end. Is you have too many elites. All right? So, let me explain the concept. Okay. So, society has many elites. Right? You have people like..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 475.9, "end": 552.49, "time_label": "7:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "If everyone has the power, no one has any power. Okay? So, what happens over time is that all these people who believe they have power. They should have power. Struggle for power. And because there are too many of them,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 306.1, "end": 393.04, "time_label": "5:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, this is what he called psychohistory. And it's a science fiction concept. And a lot of people have been trying to make it into reality. Okay? So, there's this very prominent historian. 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The machine is told what result should come back, and it refines the algorithm until the result matches.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "marks": [ { "text": "turns the output into training pressure", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 700.47, "end": 779.65, "time_label": "11:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That's how computers work. Right? Now, supervised machine learning is that. I will turn the output into the input. Okay? 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Which looks l..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 843.41, "end": 915.32, "time_label": "14:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "that I can only look at your eyes and I know who you are okay because what I'm trying to do is match what your model with the model in the database all right but what what's important to remember is that if you're not i..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 915.32, "end": 989.07, "time_label": "15:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "this is wrong and what the computer then does is we find this model until it becomes this doesn't make sense okay so what this what all AI is is infinite iteration okay it doesn't make sense all right okay so the proble..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "ai-without-mystique-003", "text": "That is why the requirements matter: clear outputs, clean data, and a working algorithmic structure. A pricing system can optimize airline profit because profit is measurable. A system cannot decide the best ice cream in the world because the output is subjective. The computer can refine structure, but it cannot create the structure by itself. Mistake that for intelligence and the phrase becomes a scam.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017" ], "marks": [ { "text": "AI is a scam when it is mistaken for self-aware intelligence.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1250.09, "end": 1315.08, "time_label": "20:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But in a situation where I'm the human being, and I don't like self -driving cars because I'm a taxi driver, and it's stealing my job, right? It's stealing my livelihood, and I want to crash into that car. 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It's stealing my livelihood, and I want to crash into that car. There's no wa..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 630, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 630.1, "end": 700.47, "time_label": "10:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, what is AI? All right. The AI, the technical term, is supervised intelligence. Supervised machine learning. Okay? That's the technical term. AI is the popular term. But supervised machine learning is the techn..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 915.32, "end": 989.07, "time_label": "15:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "this is wrong and what the computer then does is we find this model until it becomes this doesn't make sense okay so what this what all AI is is infinite iteration okay it doesn't make sense all right okay so the proble..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1250.09, "end": 1315.08, "time_label": "20:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But in a situation where I'm the human being, and I don't like self -driving cars because I'm a taxi driver, and it's stealing my job, right? It's stealing my livelihood, and I want to crash into that car. There's no wa..." } ] }, { "id": "models-that-predict", "heading": "Models That Predict", "time_range": "20:50-32:28", "summary": "The lecture turns Iran, war history, game theory, and Europe into model inputs.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "models-that-predict-001", "text": "Once AI is stripped down, it can be aimed at history. A prediction about war with Iran becomes a model: list the push factors, identify the missing counterforces, state the predicted output, then test the model against older wars. Athens in Sicily, Operation Barbarossa, and hundreds of other cases become training data. One war model is not psychohistory. Many refined models put together become the beginning of it.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "marks": [ { "text": "Many refined models put together become the beginning of psychohistory.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1492.18, "end": 1578.57, "time_label": "24:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now that we have the AI model, what we need to do now is to refine it. And the way we refine it is by going back in history and looking at every single war that started. Does that make sense? You take this model and you..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1315.08, "end": 1392.53, "time_label": "21:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "think about actual applications of AI it's it's very limited you also look at self -driving cars now there are cars that have self -driving features but they are not 100 % self -driving it doesn't make sense in fact the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1392.53, "end": 1489.46, "time_label": "23:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for example remember what we remember my predictions the issue a lobby, Saudi Arabia and the American Empire, basically the need to protect the petrodollar, will force America to go to war with Iran. These are the push..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1492.18, "end": 1578.57, "time_label": "24:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now that we have the AI model, what we need to do now is to refine it. And the way we refine it is by going back in history and looking at every single war that started. Does that make sense? You take this model and you..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "models-that-predict-002", "text": "Game theory adds another discipline. There is no need to begin with good and evil. There are players, interests, strategies, and attempts to win. That does not make the world moral. It makes the world modelable. The European elections then become evidence for a wider human pattern: voters revolt against immigration, bureaucracy, and pan-European identity because they feel local identity, community, family, and agency being erased.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1579.93, "end": 1665.46, "time_label": "26:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does this make sense, guys? All right. So now the question then is, okay, how would this AI model work? Or what are sort of the ideas behind this model? Okay? So we talk about game theory analysis a lot. All right..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1665.86, "end": 1759.24, "time_label": "27:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the results are pretty shocking, because it signals a clear shift to the right. So, for example, Marylepaine's party in France picked up a lot of votes this week. of votes. The AFD, the Alternative for Germany in Ge..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1759.24, "end": 1852.59, "time_label": "29:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And now Europeans are rebelling or revolting against that. Second thing that they don't like about Europe so far is the idea of federalism, okay? Or they can say bureaucratism. But it's the idea that a foreign power, Br..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1852.59, "end": 1947.8, "time_label": "30:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And my family. Does that make sense? Okay, it's imposing a foreign identity on me. And proponents of the European Union would argue that, no, this is just a secular, liberal idea, okay? The entire idea of the EU is that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] }, { "id": "models-that-predict-003", "text": "The point is not Europe alone. The deeper variable is the human demand for structure, meaning, power, purpose, love, creation, learning, and growth. Secular liberalism wants to remove the forces that made Europe kill itself for centuries: tribe, nation, religion, local identity. But the counterargument is that abstract peace cannot satisfy the human being if it empties life of the very attachments that make people human.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "marks": [ { "text": "abstract peace cannot satisfy the human being if it empties life of the attachments that make people human", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1852.59, "end": 1947.8, "time_label": "30:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And my family. Does that make sense? Okay, it's imposing a foreign identity on me. And proponents of the European Union would argue that, no, this is just a secular, liberal idea, okay? The entire idea of the EU is that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1759.24, "end": 1852.59, "time_label": "29:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And now Europeans are rebelling or revolting against that. Second thing that they don't like about Europe so far is the idea of federalism, okay? Or they can say bureaucratism. But it's the idea that a foreign power, Br..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1852.59, "end": 1947.8, "time_label": "30:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And my family. Does that make sense? Okay, it's imposing a foreign identity on me. And proponents of the European Union would argue that, no, this is just a secular, liberal idea, okay? 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You take this model and you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1852.59, "end": 1947.8, "time_label": "30:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And my family. Does that make sense? Okay, it's imposing a foreign identity on me. And proponents of the European Union would argue that, no, this is just a secular, liberal idea, okay? The entire idea of the EU is that..." } ] }, { "id": "human-heart-and-elites", "heading": "The Human Heart And The Artificial Elite", "time_range": "32:28-42:38", "summary": "Human desire becomes the model's core variable, and artificial elites become its danger.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "human-heart-and-elites-001", "text": "The source of the model is the human heart. If society conforms to it, society prospers. If society represses it, society collapses. Synchronicity measures one surface of that order: do people follow rules, give up seats, pick up trash, and trust each other enough to learn from mistakes? A society is not resilient because it has slogans. It is resilient because its ordinary habits line up with its moral structure.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1947.98, "end": 2042.183, "time_label": "32:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That's what we are fundamentally as human beings. And when you ask me to obey an abstract foreign entity that is very far from me, then you are, like, not human. You are limiting or destroying the structure, meaning, an..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 2042.183, "end": 2135.46, "time_label": "34:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will want to kill, okay? And so, in other words, one idea in this AI model is that there is a fundamental underlying structure to human society, okay? If society conforms to the structure of the human heart, this soc..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 2135.68, "end": 2211.92, "time_label": "35:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "For children? For pregnant women? Okay? When you go to the park, do people actually pick up garbage and throw it in the garbage bin, okay? Sequanticity tells us that there's cohesion and trust in society, that society i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] }, { "id": "human-heart-and-elites-002", "text": "Mass society creates a different problem. It needs elites, but the elites are artificial. The people in charge are not metaphysically better than everyone else; they need fictions to maintain the illusion of power. The fiction might be Harvard, IQ, royal ancestry, or managerial competence. When those fictions collapse, repression follows. The elite must lie, use force, and train people to buy instead of think.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "marks": [ { "text": "The people in charge need fictions to maintain the illusion of power.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:mass-society-needs-artificial-elites" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2212.06, "end": 2310.6, "time_label": "36:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does it make sense? Any questions so far? Yeah, excuse me? Okay, that's a great question, okay? So one thing that was not supposed to happen is the idea of mass estás? You can say that mass society is a complete, what's..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2312.88, "end": 2370.415, "time_label": "38:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They need to create fictions. For example, maybe, well, I went to Yale or Harvard, and therefore, I should be at the top. Or maybe I have a higher IQ than you do. Or maybe my dad or my great -great -great -great -grandf..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:mass-society-needs-artificial-elites", "valid": true, "concept": "mass-society-constraint", "title": null, "doc_title": "Mass Society As Political Constraint", "doc_slug": "lens/mass-society-as-political-constraint", "url": "/lens/mass-society-as-political-constraint/#mass-society-needs-artificial-elites", "text": "Mass society needs artificial elites when scale requires people in control, but their authority depends on fictions of superiority that eventually collapse into lying, force, obedience training, and repression of the human heart.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ] } ] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2212.06, "end": 2310.6, "time_label": "36:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does it make sense? Any questions so far? Yeah, excuse me? Okay, that's a great question, okay? So one thing that was not supposed to happen is the idea of mass estás? You can say that mass society is a complete, what's..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2312.88, "end": 2370.415, "time_label": "38:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They need to create fictions. For example, maybe, well, I went to Yale or Harvard, and therefore, I should be at the top. Or maybe I have a higher IQ than you do. Or maybe my dad or my great -great -great -great -grandf..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2370.415, "end": 2466.28, "time_label": "39:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's what's happening today. And so this repression can go on for a long time, but to control us, they must repress the human heart. Okay? Because it's in the human heart to want to question. To be curious...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "human-heart-and-elites-003", "text": "Individual difference does not abolish shared need. People may seek fulfillment in different ways, but the lecture's claim is that everyone seeks structure, meaning, purpose, love, creation, learning, and growth. The Greek name for achieved human fullness is eudaimonia. The psychohistory model has to make room for that, or it will model institutions while missing the human beings inside them.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "marks": [ { "text": "The Greek name for achieved human fullness is eudaimonia.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2524.97, "end": 2557.65, "time_label": "42:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "When you achieve all three things, what do we call this? Eudaimonia. Right? This is eudaimonia. This is what the Greeks meant. By a happy. Happy. And self -fulfilled life. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? So, there may..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "The psychohistory model has to make room for that, or it will model institutions while missing the human beings inside them.", "lens_points": [ "lens-point:psychohistory-needs-human-heart", "lens-point:human-heart-measures-social-order" ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2370.415, "end": 2466.28, "time_label": "39:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's what's happening today. And so this repression can go on for a long time, but to control us, they must repress the human heart. Okay? Because it's in the human heart to want to question. To be curious...." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2466.62, "end": 2523.45, "time_label": "41:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's a great point. But what Homer and Dante would say that, no. No. No. No. No. At the fundamental level, okay, we all have the same desires. We're motivated by the same needs. Okay? There's no one in this..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2524.97, "end": 2557.65, "time_label": "42:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "When you achieve all three things, what do we call this? Eudaimonia. Right? This is eudaimonia. This is what the Greeks meant. By a happy. Happy. And self -fulfilled life. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? So, there may..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:psychohistory-needs-human-heart", "valid": true, "concept": "living-school-psychohistory", "title": null, "doc_title": "Living School For Psychohistory", "doc_slug": "lens/living-school-for-psychohistory", "url": "/lens/living-school-for-psychohistory/#psychohistory-needs-human-heart", "text": "Psychohistory needs the human heart because prediction fails if it models institutions while missing love, creation, learning, agency, social interaction, compassion, and the shared needs that make humans flourish or rebel.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ] }, { "id": "lens-point:human-heart-measures-social-order", "valid": true, "concept": "human-heart", "title": null, "doc_title": "Human Heart As Civilizational Measure", "doc_slug": "lens/human-heart-as-civilizational-measure", "url": "/lens/human-heart-as-civilizational-measure/#human-heart-measures-social-order", "text": "The human heart measures social order by asking whether a society gives people structure, meaning, purpose, love, creation, learning, growth, curiosity, and agency, or whether it must repress those powers to stay in control.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ] } ] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2370.415, "end": 2466.28, "time_label": "39:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's what's happening today. And so this repression can go on for a long time, but to control us, they must repress the human heart. Okay? Because it's in the human heart to want to question. To be curious...." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2466.62, "end": 2523.45, "time_label": "41:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's a great point. But what Homer and Dante would say that, no. No. No. No. No. At the fundamental level, okay, we all have the same desires. We're motivated by the same needs. Okay? There's no one in this..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2524.97, "end": 2557.65, "time_label": "42:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "When you achieve all three things, what do we call this? Eudaimonia. Right? This is eudaimonia. This is what the Greeks meant. By a happy. Happy. And self -fulfilled life. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? So, there may..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 1948, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1947.98, "end": 2042.183, "time_label": "32:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That's what we are fundamentally as human beings. And when you ask me to obey an abstract foreign entity that is very far from me, then you are, like, not human. You are limiting or destroying the structure, meaning, an..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2212.06, "end": 2310.6, "time_label": "36:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does it make sense? Any questions so far? Yeah, excuse me? Okay, that's a great question, okay? So one thing that was not supposed to happen is the idea of mass estás? You can say that mass society is a complete, what's..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2524.97, "end": 2557.65, "time_label": "42:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "When you achieve all three things, what do we call this? Eudaimonia. Right? This is eudaimonia. This is what the Greeks meant. By a happy. Happy. And self -fulfilled life. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? So, there may..." } ] }, { "id": "correct-the-past", "heading": "Correct The Past", "time_range": "42:38-51:13", "summary": "Psychohistory needs decades of validation, historical reconstruction, and a second foundation to handle edge cases.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "correct-the-past-001", "text": "The project cannot be built quickly. A valid psychohistory AI needs fifty to one hundred years because predictions have to be tested, failed predictions have to be revised, and analysis has to learn humility from time. The class itself becomes a self-AI: a model, a prediction, and a future test that will decide whether the model was real or fantasy.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035" ], "marks": [ { "text": "The class itself becomes a self-AI.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2571.87, "end": 2638.102, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So, Sally asked the question, like, how do you construct this? This AI. Okay? And so, for this AI to be valid, okay, let me explain how we would actually implement. Okay? So, first of all, you need at least 50 to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2571.87, "end": 2638.102, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So, Sally asked the question, like, how do you construct this? This AI. Okay? And so, for this AI to be valid, okay, let me explain how we would actually implement. Okay? So, first of all, you need at least 50 to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2638.102, "end": 2701.21, "time_label": "43:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "If they're not correct, what you have to do is go away. You have to change these predictions, okay? And analysis. Okay? Does that make sense? Then what you have to do is you basically have to, and this is actually what'..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "correct-the-past-002", "text": "But prediction is only half the work. To predict the future, the model must also correct the past. Accepted history may be wrong, and a model that sees different causal patterns has to return to the Peloponnesian War, World War I, the Tang Dynasty, Christianity, and empire with new questions. The hard task is not only forecasting tomorrow. It is reconstructing yesterday well enough that tomorrow can be forecast.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "marks": [ { "text": "To predict the future, the model must also correct the past.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2773.7, "end": 2838.01, "time_label": "46:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "one thing that you notice in this class, it's like we tend to repeat the same mistakes. Right? The question is like, why do we do that? It's because the history that we have is complete bullshit. It just is. It's not tr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2638.102, "end": 2701.21, "time_label": "43:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "If they're not correct, what you have to do is go away. You have to change these predictions, okay? And analysis. Okay? Does that make sense? Then what you have to do is you basically have to, and this is actually what'..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2701.21, "end": 2773.7, "time_label": "45:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But also going back to throughout history and seeing how history can be revamped or changed so that it's more accurate. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? That's a project. But now, but then there's the technology. Becau..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2773.7, "end": 2838.01, "time_label": "46:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "one thing that you notice in this class, it's like we tend to repeat the same mistakes. Right? The question is like, why do we do that? It's because the history that we have is complete bullshit. It just is. It's not tr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "correct-the-past-003", "text": "Then comes the edge case. Great men appear from outside the model and change history: Homer, Dante, Plato, Jesus, Caesar, Octavius, Putin. They are beyond history because they can step outside of history and control it. The answer is the second foundation: specialists behind the AI, watching history and correcting the equations when someone like Putin appears.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "marks": [ { "text": "Great men are beyond history because they can step outside of history and control it.", "lens_points": [ "lens-point:psychohistory-needs-edge-case-correctors" ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2839.14, "end": 2925.561, "time_label": "47:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right? Any more questions? Yeah, Eric? Excuse me? Oh, so Eric asked a great question. Will this psychohistory model encounter edge cases? And the answer is, that's the best question. Okay? That's a great question. And t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2925.561, "end": 2995.22, "time_label": "48:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They can step outside of history and control history. That's what great men are. So, how does your model account for that? Okay? And the answer is, you cannot. So, in foundation, okay, the solution, okay, but there is a..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2995.25, "end": 3072.7, "time_label": "49:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "specialists who observe the AI and who observe history and who correct the AI for edge cases. Okay? Does that make sense? So, Putin appears and is like, okay, well, clearly, I'm not accounting for Putin. Well, then I ch..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:psychohistory-needs-edge-case-correctors", "valid": true, "concept": "living-school-psychohistory", "title": null, "doc_title": "Living School For Psychohistory", "doc_slug": "lens/living-school-for-psychohistory", "url": "/lens/living-school-for-psychohistory/#psychohistory-needs-edge-case-correctors", "text": "Psychohistory needs edge-case correctors because a predictive model cannot be treated as closed when exceptional actors can redirect history; trained observers must watch the AI, watch history, and revise the equations when reality breaks the model.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ] } ] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2839.14, "end": 2925.561, "time_label": "47:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right? Any more questions? Yeah, Eric? Excuse me? Oh, so Eric asked a great question. Will this psychohistory model encounter edge cases? And the answer is, that's the best question. Okay? That's a great question. And t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2925.561, "end": 2995.22, "time_label": "48:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They can step outside of history and control history. That's what great men are. So, how does your model account for that? Okay? And the answer is, you cannot. So, in foundation, okay, the solution, okay, but there is a..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2995.25, "end": 3072.7, "time_label": "49:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "specialists who observe the AI and who observe history and who correct the AI for edge cases. Okay? Does that make sense? So, Putin appears and is like, okay, well, clearly, I'm not accounting for Putin. Well, then I ch..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 2558, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2571.87, "end": 2638.102, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So, Sally asked the question, like, how do you construct this? This AI. Okay? And so, for this AI to be valid, okay, let me explain how we would actually implement. Okay? So, first of all, you need at least 50 to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2773.7, "end": 2838.01, "time_label": "46:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "one thing that you notice in this class, it's like we tend to repeat the same mistakes. Right? The question is like, why do we do that? It's because the history that we have is complete bullshit. It just is. It's not tr..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2995.25, "end": 3072.7, "time_label": "49:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "specialists who observe the AI and who observe history and who correct the AI for edge cases. Okay? Does that make sense? So, Putin appears and is like, okay, well, clearly, I'm not accounting for Putin. Well, then I ch..." } ] }, { "id": "what-equations-cannot-hold", "heading": "What Equations Cannot Hold", "time_range": "51:13-62:20", "summary": "The model has to include agency, compassion, literature, and the paired forces of love and hate.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "what-equations-cannot-hold-001", "text": "The telepath is the lecture's strangest name for the great-man problem. Putin is almost a telepath because he can read minds, control minds, and make Russia move the way he wants it to move. Homer and Dante are explained in the same register: God-given gifts, perhaps voices for God, figures who step outside history and redirect it. Literal or not, the term marks a capacity ordinary models do not yet know how to measure.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "marks": [ { "text": "Putin is almost a telepath because Russia moves the way he wants it to move.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 3073.12, "end": 3137.938, "time_label": "51:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I think yes. And the answer is that you can make the argument that these edge cases that Eric refers to, these great men of history, they're actually telepaths. Okay? Does that make sense? They're actually telepaths. So..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 3073.12, "end": 3137.938, "time_label": "51:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I think yes. And the answer is that you can make the argument that these edge cases that Eric refers to, these great men of history, they're actually telepaths. Okay? Does that make sense? They're actually telepaths. So..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3137.938, "end": 3219.92, "time_label": "52:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And is it possible that in the future we'll have more telepaths? And we can, over time, harness the power of these telepaths to create the second foundation and to control psychohistory? Possibly. Right? Okay? Because,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "what-equations-cannot-hold-002", "text": "Love, learning, and creation also have to become model variables, but they are not private possessions. They require agency, freedom, social interaction, and compassion. You cannot love yourself in isolation, create entirely alone, or learn without others. Put people on an island where survival requires cooperation and compassion grows. Put them in a bank where a Ferrari goes to the biggest winner and they will learn to hate each other.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "marks": [ { "text": "You cannot love yourself in isolation, create entirely alone, or learn without others.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3220.04, "end": 3300.8, "time_label": "53:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Okay. How do you model love, learn, and create? Okay? And the answer is that there has to be a certain amount of autonomy or agency in the lives of people. Does that make sense? What we call freedom and liberty. B..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3220.04, "end": 3300.8, "time_label": "53:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Okay. How do you model love, learn, and create? Okay? And the answer is that there has to be a certain amount of autonomy or agency in the lives of people. Does that make sense? What we call freedom and liberty. B..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3301.68, "end": 3369.87, "time_label": "55:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And the last thing is you also have to model in the idea of compassion. Okay? So the idea here is that if I all put you on an island together. Okay? And you must survive. Well, you will become compassionate with e..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "what-equations-cannot-hold-003", "text": "Literature remains necessary because not every truth can become an equation. Priam kissing Achilles' hand for Hector's body cannot be mathematically expressed; it can only be written. Dante's answer is that humans are driven by love and imagination. The darker corollary is that love and hate are one force. If love cannot express itself, hate will. If creation cannot express itself, destruction will.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "marks": [ { "text": "Priam kissing Achilles' hand cannot be mathematically expressed; it can only be written.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3370.17, "end": 3485.1, "time_label": "56:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does that make sense? Actually, guys, we have all these theories. It's just like no one is turning this into a mathematical model. Okay? For society. Any more questions? Yeah? Yeah. So Eric asked the question, is..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3485.28, "end": 3573.58, "time_label": "58:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Prime sneaks into Achilles' tent. And kisses his hand. Right? That moment. You can never mathematically express it. You can only write about it. But think about how much truth and power is in that one scene. Okay? Do..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "Love and hate are one force. If love cannot express itself, hate will.", "lens_points": [ "lens-point:repressed-heart-reverses-into-destruction" ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 3574.12, "end": 3646.028, "time_label": "59:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the answer is that love and hate are one force. You understand? If I can't love you, I'm going to hate you. You understand? Okay? Guess what, guys? Creation and destruction. Destruction is one force as well. If I ca..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3646.028, "end": 3740.08, "time_label": "1:00:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But within each of these things is another force. And if love can't be satisfied. Love can't express itself. Then hate will express itself. Does that make sense? Okay? All right. Any more questions? Yeah? So Sally asked..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:repressed-heart-reverses-into-destruction", "valid": true, "concept": "human-heart", "title": null, "doc_title": "Human Heart As Civilizational Measure", "doc_slug": "lens/human-heart-as-civilizational-measure", "url": "/lens/human-heart-as-civilizational-measure/#repressed-heart-reverses-into-destruction", "text": "Repressed heart reverses into destruction when blocked love becomes hate, blocked creation becomes destruction, and people denied love, creation, learning, and growth rebel against the order that made them slaves.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047" ] } ] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3370.17, "end": 3485.1, "time_label": "56:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does that make sense? Actually, guys, we have all these theories. It's just like no one is turning this into a mathematical model. Okay? For society. Any more questions? Yeah? Yeah. So Eric asked the question, is..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3485.28, "end": 3573.58, "time_label": "58:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Prime sneaks into Achilles' tent. And kisses his hand. Right? That moment. You can never mathematically express it. You can only write about it. But think about how much truth and power is in that one scene. Okay? Do..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 3574.12, "end": 3646.028, "time_label": "59:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the answer is that love and hate are one force. You understand? If I can't love you, I'm going to hate you. You understand? Okay? Guess what, guys? Creation and destruction. Destruction is one force as well. If I ca..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3646.028, "end": 3740.08, "time_label": "1:00:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But within each of these things is another force. And if love can't be satisfied. Love can't express itself. Then hate will express itself. Does that make sense? Okay? All right. Any more questions? Yeah? So Sally asked..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 3073, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 3073.12, "end": 3137.938, "time_label": "51:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I think yes. And the answer is that you can make the argument that these edge cases that Eric refers to, these great men of history, they're actually telepaths. Okay? Does that make sense? They're actually telepaths. So..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3485.28, "end": 3573.58, "time_label": "58:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Prime sneaks into Achilles' tent. And kisses his hand. Right? That moment. You can never mathematically express it. You can only write about it. But think about how much truth and power is in that one scene. Okay? Do..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3646.028, "end": 3740.08, "time_label": "1:00:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But within each of these things is another force. And if love can't be satisfied. Love can't express itself. Then hate will express itself. Does that make sense? Okay? All right. Any more questions? Yeah? So Sally asked..." } ] }, { "id": "democratic-psychohistory", "heading": "A Democratic Machine For Humanity", "time_range": "62:21-71:27", "summary": "The dream ends as a democratic, collaborative, personal project.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "democratic-psychohistory-001", "text": "The AI cannot belong to the elite. If it does, it becomes another tool for justifying corruption and cruelty. It has to be open, transparent, and democratic. Its work is scenario-making: if the United States intervenes in Ukraine, this follows; if it attacks Iran, this follows. 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Any more questions? Yeah? So Sally asked..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3741.21, "end": 3807.46, "time_label": "1:02:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it will give you different scenarios. And we can all agree on which scenario we want. And therefore, we can agree on what action to take. Okay? 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And if love can't be satisfied. Love can't express itself. Then hate will express itself. Does that make sense? Okay? All right. Any more questions? Yeah? So Sally asked..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3741.21, "end": 3807.46, "time_label": "1:02:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it will give you different scenarios. And we can all agree on which scenario we want. And therefore, we can agree on what action to take. Okay? So, this AI has to be part of a democratic system where everyone is inv..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3807.66, "end": 3875.45, "time_label": "1:03:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right? The United States attacks Iran, then this will happen. And that becomes a very powerful argument for correct and proper behavior. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. But again, guys, this is just conjecture. O..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "democratic-psychohistory-002", "text": "The hardest condition is neutrality. America, Russia, and China each want their own hegemony now, so each would want a biased machine. The lecture's bet is that collapse may create a different goal: how to rebuild civilization in a more progressive, democratic, and prosperous way. The AI can work only if it steps outside history and outside human interests, speaking for humanity rather than for a nation or faction.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "marks": [ { "text": "The AI can work only if it steps outside history and outside human interests.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 3949.789, "end": 4029.82, "time_label": "1:05:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Humans are united in their goals, which is basically how do we create a better civilization. Okay? Does that make sense? When all society has collapsed, everyone's like, how do we recreate civilization? 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The dream of psychohistory may not happen tomorrow, but it can be shared later, by people who learned together how to imagine a future and make it happen.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "marks": [ { "text": "fatherhood requires belief in a better world, and belief is not enough; the world has to be imagined and fought for.", "lens_points": [ "lens-point:school-dream-outlives-classroom" ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0055" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 4105.84, "end": 4186.81, "time_label": "1:08:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You guys are asking great questions. Okay? So, thank you again. Because you don't have to work hard in this course. But you chose to work hard. And this is going to carry you very far in life. Okay? So, the course has c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 4186.81, "end": 4253.52, "time_label": "1:09:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "do you have to believe in a better world, you have to imagine and to fight for it. Because you have to leave behind a legacy for your children. Okay? So, why I teach this course is to bring you a message of hope. Okay?..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:school-dream-outlives-classroom", "valid": true, "concept": "living-school-psychohistory", "title": null, "doc_title": "Living School For Psychohistory", "doc_slug": "lens/living-school-for-psychohistory", "url": "/lens/living-school-for-psychohistory/#school-dream-outlives-classroom", "text": "The school dream outlives the classroom when student growth, fatherly hope, shared work, and the long ambition for a liberal-arts psychohistory school turn one course into a possible future institution.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ] } ] }, { "text": "The dream of psychohistory may be shared later by people who learned together how to make a future happen.", "lens_points": [ "lens-point:school-dream-outlives-classroom" ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 4253.86, "end": 4287.16, "time_label": "1:10:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And maybe at some point, we can share this dream of psychohistory. 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And it's someth..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:school-dream-outlives-classroom", "valid": true, "concept": "living-school-psychohistory", "title": null, "doc_title": "Living School For Psychohistory", "doc_slug": "lens/living-school-for-psychohistory", "url": "/lens/living-school-for-psychohistory/#school-dream-outlives-classroom", "text": "The school dream outlives the classroom when student growth, fatherly hope, shared work, and the long ambition for a liberal-arts psychohistory school turn one course into a possible future institution.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-voqeteh6hko@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ] } ] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 4029.96, "end": 4105.62, "time_label": "1:07:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? In the first semester, we read the great books. And I was blown away by how much you guys enjoyed the great books. And how much you benefit from reading the great books. Okay? And quite honestly, I don't think any..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 4105.84, "end": 4186.81, "time_label": "1:08:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You guys are asking great questions. Okay? So, thank you again. Because you don't have to work hard in this course. But you chose to work hard. And this is going to carry you very far in life. Okay? So, the course has c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 4186.81, "end": 4253.52, "time_label": "1:09:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "do you have to believe in a better world, you have to imagine and to fight for it. Because you have to leave behind a legacy for your children. Okay? 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And it's someth..." } ] } ], "questions": [ { "id": "question-self-driving-cars", "question": "Can self-driving cars be solved?", "answer": "The answer is no in the strict sense, because the edge case is intentional human action. Traffic, accidents, and rules can be modeled. A taxi driver who decides to crash into the car because the machine threatens his livelihood cannot be solved by ordinary planning. That is why AI is limited: it follows an algorithmic structure; it does not abolish human agency.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1064.61, "end": 1160.3, "time_label": "17:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "structure it cannot create by itself okay so if I'm able to do all three things then I'm able to use AI to optimize what I wanted to optimize okay all right any questions so far before I move on okay so what this means..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1162.21, "end": 1249.85, "time_label": "19:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, the answer no is, whatever I do, okay, I cannot solve something called the edge case. The edge case is, if the car is on the road, what could happen that would screw up my AI system? You guys know? Why can't self..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1250.09, "end": 1315.08, "time_label": "20:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But in a situation where I'm the human being, and I don't like self -driving cars because I'm a taxi driver, and it's stealing my job, right? It's stealing my livelihood, and I want to crash into that car. There's no wa..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "The answer is no in the strict sense, because the edge case is intentional human action. Traffic, accidents, and rules can be modeled. A taxi driver who decides to crash into the car because the machine threatens his livelihood cannot be solved by ordinary planning. That is why AI is limited: it follows an algorithmic structure; it does not abolish human agency.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1064.61, "end": 1160.3, "time_label": "17:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "structure it cannot create by itself okay so if I'm able to do all three things then I'm able to use AI to optimize what I wanted to optimize okay all right any questions so far before I move on okay so what this means..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1162.21, "end": 1249.85, "time_label": "19:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, the answer no is, whatever I do, okay, I cannot solve something called the edge case. The edge case is, if the car is on the road, what could happen that would screw up my AI system? You guys know? Why can't self..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1250.09, "end": 1315.08, "time_label": "20:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But in a situation where I'm the human being, and I don't like self -driving cars because I'm a taxi driver, and it's stealing my job, right? It's stealing my livelihood, and I want to crash into that car. There's no wa..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "id": "question-source-of-human-drive", "question": "What is the source of the drive for structure, meaning, and purpose?", "answer": "Eric's question is answered through Homer and Dante: the source is the human heart. If society fulfills it, people flourish; if society represses it, they rebel, destroy, and may want to kill. That human heart becomes one of the core variables any psychohistory model must understand.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1947.98, "end": 2042.183, "time_label": "32:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That's what we are fundamentally as human beings. And when you ask me to obey an abstract foreign entity that is very far from me, then you are, like, not human. You are limiting or destroying the structure, meaning, an..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 2042.183, "end": 2135.46, "time_label": "34:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will want to kill, okay? And so, in other words, one idea in this AI model is that there is a fundamental underlying structure to human society, okay? If society conforms to the structure of the human heart, this soc..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Eric's question is answered through Homer and Dante: the source is the human heart. If society fulfills it, people flourish; if society represses it, they rebel, destroy, and may want to kill. That human heart becomes one of the core variables any psychohistory model must understand.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1947.98, "end": 2042.183, "time_label": "32:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That's what we are fundamentally as human beings. And when you ask me to obey an abstract foreign entity that is very far from me, then you are, like, not human. You are limiting or destroying the structure, meaning, an..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 2042.183, "end": 2135.46, "time_label": "34:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will want to kill, okay? And so, in other words, one idea in this AI model is that there is a fundamental underlying structure to human society, okay? If society conforms to the structure of the human heart, this soc..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "id": "question-individual-change", "question": "Aren't people individual, unique, and changing over time?", "answer": "Sally's objection is granted at the surface but rejected at the root. People differ in how they seek fulfillment, but the underlying needs remain shared: structure, meaning, purpose, love, creation, learning, and growth. That shared structure is why a model of human society is possible at all.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2370.415, "end": 2466.28, "time_label": "39:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's what's happening today. And so this repression can go on for a long time, but to control us, they must repress the human heart. Okay? Because it's in the human heart to want to question. To be curious...." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2466.62, "end": 2523.45, "time_label": "41:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's a great point. But what Homer and Dante would say that, no. No. No. No. No. At the fundamental level, okay, we all have the same desires. We're motivated by the same needs. Okay? There's no one in this..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2524.97, "end": 2557.65, "time_label": "42:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "When you achieve all three things, what do we call this? Eudaimonia. Right? This is eudaimonia. This is what the Greeks meant. By a happy. Happy. And self -fulfilled life. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? So, there may..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Sally's objection is granted at the surface but rejected at the root. People differ in how they seek fulfillment, but the underlying needs remain shared: structure, meaning, purpose, love, creation, learning, and growth. That shared structure is why a model of human society is possible at all.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2370.415, "end": 2466.28, "time_label": "39:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's what's happening today. And so this repression can go on for a long time, but to control us, they must repress the human heart. Okay? Because it's in the human heart to want to question. To be curious...." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2466.62, "end": 2523.45, "time_label": "41:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's a great point. But what Homer and Dante would say that, no. No. No. No. No. At the fundamental level, okay, we all have the same desires. We're motivated by the same needs. Okay? There's no one in this..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2524.97, "end": 2557.65, "time_label": "42:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "When you achieve all three things, what do we call this? Eudaimonia. Right? This is eudaimonia. This is what the Greeks meant. By a happy. Happy. And self -fulfilled life. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? So, there may..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "id": "question-construct-ai", "question": "How would this psychohistory AI actually be constructed?", "answer": "Sally's construction question gets a long answer: it would take fifty to one hundred years, constant prediction, validation, revision, and historical reconstruction. Mathematicians, programmers, and historians would have to work together because ideas have to become data, numbers, equations, and models before a computer can calculate with them.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0036" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2571.87, "end": 2638.102, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So, Sally asked the question, like, how do you construct this? This AI. Okay? And so, for this AI to be valid, okay, let me explain how we would actually implement. Okay? So, first of all, you need at least 50 to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2638.102, "end": 2701.21, "time_label": "43:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "If they're not correct, what you have to do is go away. You have to change these predictions, okay? And analysis. Okay? Does that make sense? Then what you have to do is you basically have to, and this is actually what'..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2701.21, "end": 2773.7, "time_label": "45:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But also going back to throughout history and seeing how history can be revamped or changed so that it's more accurate. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? That's a project. But now, but then there's the technology. Becau..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Sally's construction question gets a long answer: it would take fifty to one hundred years, constant prediction, validation, revision, and historical reconstruction. Mathematicians, programmers, and historians would have to work together because ideas have to become data, numbers, equations, and models before a computer can calculate with them.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0036" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2571.87, "end": 2638.102, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So, Sally asked the question, like, how do you construct this? This AI. Okay? And so, for this AI to be valid, okay, let me explain how we would actually implement. Okay? So, first of all, you need at least 50 to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2638.102, "end": 2701.21, "time_label": "43:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "If they're not correct, what you have to do is go away. You have to change these predictions, okay? And analysis. Okay? Does that make sense? Then what you have to do is you basically have to, and this is actually what'..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2701.21, "end": 2773.7, "time_label": "45:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But also going back to throughout history and seeing how history can be revamped or changed so that it's more accurate. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? That's a project. But now, but then there's the technology. Becau..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "id": "question-edge-cases-history", "question": "Would psychohistory encounter edge cases?", "answer": "Eric's question is called the best question because it names the weakness of the whole model. The edge cases are great men: figures who appear from outside normal historical forces and change history. The second foundation is introduced as the corrective institution that watches the AI, watches history, and updates the model when edge cases appear.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2839.14, "end": 2925.561, "time_label": "47:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right? Any more questions? Yeah, Eric? Excuse me? Oh, so Eric asked a great question. Will this psychohistory model encounter edge cases? And the answer is, that's the best question. Okay? That's a great question. And t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2925.561, "end": 2995.22, "time_label": "48:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They can step outside of history and control history. That's what great men are. So, how does your model account for that? Okay? And the answer is, you cannot. So, in foundation, okay, the solution, okay, but there is a..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2995.25, "end": 3072.7, "time_label": "49:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "specialists who observe the AI and who observe history and who correct the AI for edge cases. Okay? Does that make sense? So, Putin appears and is like, okay, well, clearly, I'm not accounting for Putin. Well, then I ch..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Eric's question is called the best question because it names the weakness of the whole model. The edge cases are great men: figures who appear from outside normal historical forces and change history. The second foundation is introduced as the corrective institution that watches the AI, watches history, and updates the model when edge cases appear.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2839.14, "end": 2925.561, "time_label": "47:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right? Any more questions? Yeah, Eric? Excuse me? Oh, so Eric asked a great question. Will this psychohistory model encounter edge cases? And the answer is, that's the best question. Okay? That's a great question. And t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2925.561, "end": 2995.22, "time_label": "48:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They can step outside of history and control history. That's what great men are. So, how does your model account for that? Okay? And the answer is, you cannot. So, in foundation, okay, the solution, okay, but there is a..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2995.25, "end": 3072.7, "time_label": "49:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "specialists who observe the AI and who observe history and who correct the AI for edge cases. Okay? Does that make sense? So, Putin appears and is like, okay, well, clearly, I'm not accounting for Putin. Well, then I ch..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "id": "question-model-love-create-grow", "question": "How do you model love, learning, and creation?", "answer": "Celine's question is answered through agency, freedom, social interaction, and compassion. The model has to count whether people have enough freedom to act, enough contact with others to love, create, and learn, and enough compassion to cooperate instead of turn every relationship into competition.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3220.04, "end": 3300.8, "time_label": "53:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Okay. How do you model love, learn, and create? Okay? And the answer is that there has to be a certain amount of autonomy or agency in the lives of people. Does that make sense? What we call freedom and liberty. B..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3301.68, "end": 3369.87, "time_label": "55:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And the last thing is you also have to model in the idea of compassion. Okay? So the idea here is that if I all put you on an island together. Okay? And you must survive. Well, you will become compassionate with e..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Celine's question is answered through agency, freedom, social interaction, and compassion. The model has to count whether people have enough freedom to act, enough contact with others to love, create, and learn, and enough compassion to cooperate instead of turn every relationship into competition.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3220.04, "end": 3300.8, "time_label": "53:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Okay. How do you model love, learn, and create? Okay? And the answer is that there has to be a certain amount of autonomy or agency in the lives of people. Does that make sense? What we call freedom and liberty. B..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3301.68, "end": 3369.87, "time_label": "55:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And the last thing is you also have to model in the idea of compassion. Okay? So the idea here is that if I all put you on an island together. Okay? And you must survive. Well, you will become compassionate with e..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "id": "question-why-destroy", "question": "If humans want to love, create, and grow, why do they destroy themselves?", "answer": "Celine's second question produces the lecture's sharpest causal chain: love and hate are one force, and creation and destruction are one force. If love is blocked, hate expresses itself. If creation is blocked, destruction expresses itself. A slave cannot love, create, learn, or grow; therefore the slave rebels and destroys the society that made him a slave.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3485.28, "end": 3573.58, "time_label": "58:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Prime sneaks into Achilles' tent. And kisses his hand. Right? That moment. You can never mathematically express it. You can only write about it. But think about how much truth and power is in that one scene. Okay? Do..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 3574.12, "end": 3646.028, "time_label": "59:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the answer is that love and hate are one force. You understand? If I can't love you, I'm going to hate you. You understand? Okay? Guess what, guys? Creation and destruction. Destruction is one force as well. If I ca..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3646.028, "end": 3740.08, "time_label": "1:00:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But within each of these things is another force. And if love can't be satisfied. Love can't express itself. Then hate will express itself. Does that make sense? Okay? All right. Any more questions? Yeah? So Sally asked..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Celine's second question produces the lecture's sharpest causal chain: love and hate are one force, and creation and destruction are one force. If love is blocked, hate expresses itself. If creation is blocked, destruction expresses itself. A slave cannot love, create, learn, or grow; therefore the slave rebels and destroys the society that made him a slave.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3485.28, "end": 3573.58, "time_label": "58:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Prime sneaks into Achilles' tent. And kisses his hand. Right? That moment. You can never mathematically express it. You can only write about it. But think about how much truth and power is in that one scene. Okay? Do..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 3574.12, "end": 3646.028, "time_label": "59:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the answer is that love and hate are one force. You understand? If I can't love you, I'm going to hate you. You understand? Okay? Guess what, guys? Creation and destruction. Destruction is one force as well. If I ca..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3646.028, "end": 3740.08, "time_label": "1:00:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But within each of these things is another force. And if love can't be satisfied. Love can't express itself. Then hate will express itself. Does that make sense? Okay? All right. Any more questions? Yeah? So Sally asked..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "id": "question-control-ai", "question": "Who would control the AI, and how could it avoid elite exploitation?", "answer": "Sally's control question forces the political answer. The AI has to be open, transparent, and democratic. If it belongs to an elite, it becomes a weapon for justifying cruelty. If it belongs to a public process, it can show scenarios and help people agree on action before disaster arrives.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3646.028, "end": 3740.08, "time_label": "1:00:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But within each of these things is another force. And if love can't be satisfied. Love can't express itself. Then hate will express itself. Does that make sense? Okay? All right. Any more questions? Yeah? So Sally asked..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3741.21, "end": 3807.46, "time_label": "1:02:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it will give you different scenarios. And we can all agree on which scenario we want. And therefore, we can agree on what action to take. Okay? So, this AI has to be part of a democratic system where everyone is inv..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Sally's control question forces the political answer. The AI has to be open, transparent, and democratic. If it belongs to an elite, it becomes a weapon for justifying cruelty. If it belongs to a public process, it can show scenarios and help people agree on action before disaster arrives.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3646.028, "end": 3740.08, "time_label": "1:00:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But within each of these things is another force. And if love can't be satisfied. Love can't express itself. Then hate will express itself. Does that make sense? Okay? All right. Any more questions? Yeah? So Sally asked..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3741.21, "end": 3807.46, "time_label": "1:02:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it will give you different scenarios. And we can all agree on which scenario we want. And therefore, we can agree on what action to take. Okay? So, this AI has to be part of a democratic system where everyone is inv..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "id": "question-different-outcomes", "question": "Won't different people and nations want different outcomes?", "answer": "Yes. America, Russia, and China each want their own hegemony now. The answer is that this structure is unsustainable. After collapse, the lecture imagines humanity united by a different goal: rebuilding civilization. That is also why the AI would have to speak for humanity rather than for any nation or group.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3877.93, "end": 3949.789, "time_label": "1:04:37", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, if it is true, if my predictions are correct and society is approaching collapse, then there should be a lot of space and leeway and flexibility to create this AI. Okay? Okay. Any more questions? Yeah? That's a grea..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 3949.789, "end": 4029.82, "time_label": "1:05:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Humans are united in their goals, which is basically how do we create a better civilization. Okay? Does that make sense? When all society has collapsed, everyone's like, how do we recreate civilization? That's the goal...." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Yes. America, Russia, and China each want their own hegemony now. The answer is that this structure is unsustainable. After collapse, the lecture imagines humanity united by a different goal: rebuilding civilization. That is also why the AI would have to speak for humanity rather than for any nation or group.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3877.93, "end": 3949.789, "time_label": "1:04:37", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, if it is true, if my predictions are correct and society is approaching collapse, then there should be a lot of space and leeway and flexibility to create this AI. Okay? Okay. Any more questions? Yeah? That's a grea..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 3949.789, "end": 4029.82, "time_label": "1:05:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Humans are united in their goals, which is basically how do we create a better civilization. Okay? Does that make sense? When all society has collapsed, everyone's like, how do we recreate civilization? That's the goal...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] } ], "source_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "note": "Several names and terms have ASR noise: Peter Turchin is rendered as Turkin, Marine Le Pen as Marylepaine, synchronicity as sequanticity, and Priam as Prime. The public read uses corrected prose while keeping paragraph refs auditable.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 306.1, "end": 393.04, "time_label": "5:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, this is what he called psychohistory. And it's a science fiction concept. And a lot of people have been trying to make it into reality. Okay? So, there's this very prominent historian. His name is Peter Turkin..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1665.86, "end": 1759.24, "time_label": "27:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the results are pretty shocking, because it signals a clear shift to the right. So, for example, Marylepaine's party in France picked up a lot of votes this week. of votes. 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The end of the journey, the final class. So, we've done a lot this year, right? Last semester, we did the great books, the Iliad, the Odyssey, the Bible, Republic, Divine Comedy. This semester, we did how screwed up the world is, right? The world is hopeless. We're all going to die. And in this final class, I want this class to be about hope. And I want to show you the future. And the argument I want to leave you with, the thing that I want you to remember is that remember Dante in Divine Comedy said that the future is not what happens to you. It's not something that you wait for. The future is what you imagine and fight for. The future is what you make happen. There is a God, but God gave us the ability to imagine and the capacity to love. 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So, this is what he called psychohistory. And it's a science fiction concept. And a lot of people have been trying to make it into reality. Okay? So, there's this very prominent historian. His name is Peter Turkin. And he's one of the founders of something called Clio Dynamics. Okay? And Clio is the goddess of history. Dynamics just means movement. Okay? So, basically, Clio Dynamics is trying to figure out the mathematical movement of history. He's trying to create history as a mathematical model. And when he did that, there's certain interesting trends and patterns that he discovered. Okay? And one idea that he discovered. Is something called the overproduction of the elites. Okay? Overproduction of the elite. And this concept explains why societies collapse. Now, traditionally, we've understood the collapse of societies as having to do with maybe too much debt. Or too much inequality. Or maybe climate change. Or war. Right? What Peter Turkin points out.", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-001", "start": 306.1, "end": 309.84, "text": "Okay? So, this is what he called psychohistory.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-002", "start": 310.3, "end": 312.22, "text": "And it's a science fiction concept.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-003", "start": 312.84, "end": 315.82, "text": "And a lot of people have been trying to make it into", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-004", "start": 315.82, "end": 316.7, "text": "reality. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-005", "start": 317.14, "end": 322.28, "text": "So, there's this very prominent historian.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-006", "start": 322.34, "end": 325.54, "text": "His name is Peter Turkin.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-007", "start": 326.48, "end": 330.82, "text": "And he's one of the founders of something called Clio Dynamics.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-008", "start": 332.75, "end": 337.55, "text": "Okay? And Clio is the goddess of history.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-009", "start": 338.07, "end": 339.53, "text": "Dynamics just means movement.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-010", "start": 339.85, "end": 344.59, "text": "Okay? So, basically, Clio Dynamics is trying to figure out the mathematical", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-011", "start": 344.59, "end": 347.17, "text": "movement of history.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-012", "start": 347.85, "end": 351.59, "text": "He's trying to create history as a mathematical model.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-013", "start": 352.36, "end": 353.66, "text": "And when he did that,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-014", "start": 354.4, "end": 357.84, "text": "there's certain interesting trends and patterns that he discovered.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-015", "start": 358.41, "end": 361.15, "text": "Okay? And one idea that he discovered.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-016", "start": 361.15, "end": 370.2, "text": "Is something called the overproduction of the elites.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-017", "start": 370.52, "end": 373.21, "text": "Okay? Overproduction of the elite.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-018", "start": 373.76, "end": 377.9, "text": "And this concept explains why societies collapse.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-019", "start": 379, "end": 384.6, "text": "Now, traditionally, we've understood the collapse of societies as having to do", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-020", "start": 384.6, "end": 385.98, "text": "with maybe too much debt.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-021", "start": 386.26, "end": 387.68, "text": "Or too much inequality.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-022", "start": 388.22, "end": 389.42, "text": "Or maybe climate change.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-023", "start": 389.68, "end": 390.2, "text": "Or war.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-024", "start": 390.32, "end": 391.48, "text": "Right? What", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-025", "start": 391.48, "end": 393.04, "text": "Peter Turkin points out.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "8a7063cee94acd49c7dc6fa1891f84f6245a1a484f60aaf7d504e26d52fcaa35", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0005", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=306s", "time_label": "5:06", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0006", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "start": 393.04, "end": 475.58, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And it's a really interesting idea. Is the reason why societies collapse in the end. Is you have too many elites. All right? So, let me explain the concept. Okay. So, society has many elites. Right? You have people like Jack Ma. Right? You have people like Zhou Xun, Zhao Wei. Right? Movie stars. You have famous military generals. Okay? So, overall. Over time, elites become more and more numerous. The number of wealthy people go up. The number of famous people go up. The number of entrepreneurs go up. Okay? The problem, though, is they all want power. Right? Now, wealth and fame are all infinite resources. Right? But power will always be a finite resource. In fact, it's what we call a zero -sum game. So, for example, in this classroom, there can only be one teacher. Right? If we're all teachers, there's no teacher. So, in society, there can only be a few powerful people.", "word_count": 158, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-001", "start": 393.04, "end": 394.76, "text": "And it's a really interesting idea.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-002", "start": 394.98, "end": 398.1, "text": "Is the reason why societies collapse in the end.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-003", "start": 398.28, "end": 401.12, "text": "Is you have too many elites.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-004", "start": 401.85, "end": 402.59, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-005", "start": 402.65, "end": 403.87, "text": "So, let me explain the concept.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-006", "start": 404.43, "end": 409.2, "text": "Okay. So, society has many elites.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-007", "start": 409.36, "end": 410.78, "text": "Right? You have people like Jack Ma.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-008", "start": 411.49, "end": 414.23, "text": "Right? You have people like Zhou Xun,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-009", "start": 414.23, "end": 414.71, "text": "Zhao Wei.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-010", "start": 414.89, "end": 415.77, "text": "Right? Movie stars.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-011", "start": 416.9, "end": 420.4, "text": "You have famous military generals.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-012", "start": 420.84, "end": 424.08, "text": "Okay? So, overall.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-013", "start": 424.08, "end": 426.9, "text": "Over time, elites become more and more numerous.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-014", "start": 427.44, "end": 431.1, "text": "The number of wealthy people go up.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-015", "start": 431.54, "end": 433.56, "text": "The number of famous people go up.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-016", "start": 433.82, "end": 437.84, "text": "The number of entrepreneurs go up.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-017", "start": 437.94, "end": 443.9, "text": "Okay? The problem, though, is they all want power.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-018", "start": 444.26, "end": 451.39, "text": "Right? Now, wealth and fame are all infinite resources.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-019", "start": 452.03, "end": 457.81, "text": "Right? But power will always be a finite resource.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-020", "start": 458.51, "end": 462.11, "text": "In fact, it's what we call a zero -sum game.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-021", "start": 463.07, "end": 464.61, "text": "So, for example, in this classroom,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-022", "start": 464.75, "end": 466.23, "text": "there can only be one teacher.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-023", "start": 466.88, "end": 468.4, "text": "Right? If we're all teachers,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-024", "start": 468.5, "end": 469.18, "text": "there's no teacher.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-025", "start": 471.6, "end": 474.8, "text": "So, in society, there can only be a few", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-026", "start": 474.8, "end": 475.58, "text": "powerful people.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "62be27868676951d0e24cce00a3d2d553c3a796efe37417134be82cc33991fe4", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0006", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=393s", "time_label": "6:33", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0007", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "start": 475.9, "end": 552.49, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "If everyone has the power, no one has any power. Okay? So, what happens over time is that all these people who believe they have power. They should have power. Struggle for power. And because there are too many of them, this internal struggle of the elites ultimately leads to social collapse. Okay? So, the most famous example is in China. In imperial China, where you have the system. Right? People taking the imperial examinations to become an official. Problem is, you have too many candidates, not enough positions. Right? And guess who ultimately gets upset with society and leads revolutions? It's the Kejiu candidates who do not become officials. And so, they become angry. And they lead revolutions to overthrow society. Right? So, the most classic example of the failed Kejiu candidate is Hong Xiuquan. Do you guys know who he is? The leader of the Taiping rebellion. Right? Why did he become a Christian? Why did he lead the rebellion?", "word_count": 162, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-001", "start": 475.9, "end": 477.04, "text": "If everyone has the power,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-002", "start": 477.2, "end": 478.02, "text": "no one has any power.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-003", "start": 478.76, "end": 484.24, "text": "Okay? So, what happens over time is that all these people who", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-004", "start": 484.24, "end": 485.12, "text": "believe they have power.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-005", "start": 485.12, "end": 486.34, "text": "They should have power.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-006", "start": 487.08, "end": 488.16, "text": "Struggle for power.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-007", "start": 488.69, "end": 490.39, "text": "And because there are too many of them,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-008", "start": 490.69, "end": 495.71, "text": "this internal struggle of the elites ultimately leads to social collapse.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-009", "start": 497.06, "end": 500.72, "text": "Okay? So, the most famous example is in China.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-010", "start": 500.86, "end": 504.18, "text": "In imperial China, where you have the system.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-011", "start": 504.66, "end": 509.68, "text": "Right? People taking the imperial examinations to become an official.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-012", "start": 510.36, "end": 513.68, "text": "Problem is, you have too many candidates,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-013", "start": 514.08, "end": 515.66, "text": "not enough positions.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-014", "start": 515.66, "end": 521.24, "text": "Right? And guess who ultimately gets upset with society and leads revolutions?", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-015", "start": 521.94, "end": 526.79, "text": "It's the Kejiu candidates who do not become officials.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-016", "start": 527.88, "end": 529.96, "text": "And so, they become angry.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-017", "start": 530.44, "end": 532.96, "text": "And they lead revolutions to overthrow society.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-018", "start": 533.32, "end": 540.2, "text": "Right? So, the most classic example of the failed Kejiu candidate is", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-019", "start": 540.2, "end": 542.79, "text": "Hong Xiuquan.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-020", "start": 543.39, "end": 544.81, "text": "Do you guys know who he is?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-021", "start": 545.17, "end": 546.59, "text": "The leader of the Taiping rebellion.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-022", "start": 546.85, "end": 549.81, "text": "Right? Why did he become a Christian?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-023", "start": 550.31, "end": 550.99, "text": "Why did", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-024", "start": 550.99, "end": 552.49, "text": "he lead the rebellion?", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "27a48b77b5b0f23b277341fc59cd38329a1d4932fa0544ebdb901d1948796c75", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0007", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=475s", "time_label": "7:55", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0008", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "start": 552.71, "end": 629.98, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Because he failed the Kejiu. Okay? So, that's the idea of the overproduction of the elite. And he discovered this principle using mathematically modeling of history. Okay? He just compared different societies and tried to figure out why they collapsed. Okay? And what he discovered is, well, it's because of the internal struggle. Among the different elite groups. Okay? And that's why the Roman Empire collapsed as well. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay. What I'm proposing to you is that we can actually go a step further in what Peter Turkin is doing. Because we have something now called AI. Okay? Artificial intelligence. And we can harness the power of AI to create real psychohistory. Which is the ability to not just analyze the past, but to predict the future. Okay? All right. So, let's first figure out what AI is. Okay? So, first I want us to understand what artificial intelligence is. Because most of you think you know, but you don't actually know.", "word_count": 166, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-001", "start": 552.71, "end": 554.29, "text": "Because he failed the Kejiu.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-002", "start": 554.72, "end": 559.96, "text": "Okay? So, that's the idea of the overproduction of the elite.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-003", "start": 560.12, "end": 565.24, "text": "And he discovered this principle using mathematically modeling of history.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-004", "start": 565.54, "end": 571.83, "text": "Okay? He just compared different societies and tried to figure out why", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-005", "start": 571.83, "end": 572.35, "text": "they collapsed.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-006", "start": 572.57, "end": 574.31, "text": "Okay? And what he discovered is,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-007", "start": 574.41, "end": 577.45, "text": "well, it's because of the internal struggle.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-008", "start": 577.45, "end": 580.37, "text": "Among the different elite groups.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-009", "start": 580.73, "end": 582.99, "text": "Okay? And that's why the Roman Empire collapsed as well.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-010", "start": 583.25, "end": 584.49, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-011", "start": 584.69, "end": 590.25, "text": "Okay. What I'm proposing to you is that we can actually go", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-012", "start": 590.25, "end": 593.29, "text": "a step further in what Peter Turkin is doing.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-013", "start": 593.55, "end": 595.89, "text": "Because we have something now called AI.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-014", "start": 596.98, "end": 599.14, "text": "Okay? Artificial intelligence.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-015", "start": 600.89, "end": 607.31, "text": "And we can harness the power of AI to create real psychohistory.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-016", "start": 607.31, "end": 610.69, "text": "Which is the ability to not just analyze the past,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-017", "start": 611.09, "end": 612.59, "text": "but to predict the future.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-018", "start": 613.89, "end": 616.1, "text": "Okay? All right.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-019", "start": 616.9, "end": 620.14, "text": "So, let's first figure out what AI is.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-020", "start": 620.74, "end": 624.36, "text": "Okay? So, first I want us to understand what artificial intelligence is.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-021", "start": 626.82, "end": 627.82, "text": "Because most", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-022", "start": 627.82, "end": 628.84, "text": "of you think you know,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-023", "start": 629.04, "end": 629.98, "text": "but you don't actually know.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "b17b1107345bae1d5ffdc6636c53683dd69c928583da67dd1a90489bfe060812", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0008", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=552s", "time_label": "9:12", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0009", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "start": 630.1, "end": 700.47, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? So, what is AI? All right. The AI, the technical term, is supervised intelligence. Supervised machine learning. Okay? That's the technical term. AI is the popular term. But supervised machine learning is the technical and correct term. Have you guys heard of this term? Supervised machine learning? Yes or no? Have any of you taken computer science? Okay. This is called supervised machine learning. Okay. So, what is this? Okay. So, in computer programming, you're taught to do this. You're taught to write the algorithm. Right? And then the input. You put in information, it gives you the output. Okay? And this is traditionally how computers work. You write the algorithm, the computer program, you put in information, and then there's an output. Right? For example, the algorithm could be like A plus B. Okay? So, you put in two numbers. Two, two, you get a four. Okay?", "word_count": 149, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-001", "start": 630.1, "end": 631.8, "text": "Okay? So, what is AI?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-002", "start": 632.06, "end": 632.68, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-003", "start": 632.72, "end": 635.76, "text": "The AI, the technical term,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-004", "start": 635.9, "end": 638.52, "text": "is supervised intelligence.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-005", "start": 640.44, "end": 642.38, "text": "Supervised machine learning.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-006", "start": 644.27, "end": 646.89, "text": "Okay? That's the technical term.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-007", "start": 647.58, "end": 649.32, "text": "AI is the popular term.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-008", "start": 649.44, "end": 655.62, "text": "But supervised machine learning is the technical and correct term.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-009", "start": 655.94, "end": 657.08, "text": "Have you guys heard of this term?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-010", "start": 657.74, "end": 658.86, "text": "Supervised machine learning?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-011", "start": 659.08, "end": 659.8, "text": "Yes or no?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-012", "start": 661.32, "end": 663.08, "text": "Have any of you taken computer science?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-013", "start": 665.34, "end": 667.78, "text": "Okay. This is called supervised machine learning.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-014", "start": 667.94, "end": 670.06, "text": "Okay. So, what is this?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-015", "start": 670.18, "end": 674.14, "text": "Okay. So, in computer programming,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-016", "start": 674.14, "end": 674.94, "text": "you're taught to do this.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-017", "start": 674.94, "end": 675.9, "text": "You're taught to write the algorithm.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-018", "start": 676.16, "end": 678.68, "text": "Right? And then the input.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-019", "start": 679.28, "end": 681.26, "text": "You put in information, it gives you the output.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-020", "start": 682.58, "end": 685.08, "text": "Okay? And this is traditionally how computers work.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-021", "start": 685.36, "end": 688.57, "text": "You write the algorithm, the computer program,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-022", "start": 688.87, "end": 691.77, "text": "you put in information, and then there's an output.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-023", "start": 691.91, "end": 696.85, "text": "Right? For example, the algorithm could be like A plus B.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-024", "start": 697.01, "end": 698.15, "text": "Okay? So, you put in two numbers.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-025", "start": 698.31, "end": 699.61, "text": "Two, two, you get a four.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-026", "start": 699.79, "end": 700.47, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "5e0938180b27311572ca4ba12e460bb66fb8d44e4eebf69d9b1d92dd189453b1", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0009", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=630s", "time_label": "10:30", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0010", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "start": 700.47, "end": 779.65, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "That's how computers work. Right? Now, supervised machine learning is that. I will turn the output into the input. Okay? And the reason why I want to do that is that as a human being, I myself may not be able to write the best algorithm. So, I want the computer to refine the algorithm for me, to optimize it using the output. Okay? Does that make sense? All right? So, let's talk about a very specific example. All right? So, let's look at facial recognition technology. All right? You go to the airport, and you're scanned, and they know who you are. Right? You go to a supermarket, you scan your face, and you pay. Right? And you're like, wait, how does that work? Okay. So, how this works is that there's a database. Okay? About one billion people, like everyone in China. And now, what I need to do is figure out how to differentiate the faces of everyone in China in this database.", "word_count": 166, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-001", "start": 700.47, "end": 702.07, "text": "That's how computers work.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-002", "start": 702.33, "end": 705.91, "text": "Right? Now, supervised machine learning is that.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-003", "start": 705.91, "end": 711.37, "text": "I will turn the output into the input.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-004", "start": 712.27, "end": 716.57, "text": "Okay? And the reason why I want to do that is that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-005", "start": 716.57, "end": 722.66, "text": "as a human being, I myself may not be able to write", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-006", "start": 722.66, "end": 723.88, "text": "the best algorithm.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-007", "start": 726.24, "end": 731.91, "text": "So, I want the computer to refine the algorithm for me,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-008", "start": 731.97, "end": 736.23, "text": "to optimize it using the output.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-009", "start": 736.37, "end": 736.99, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-010", "start": 736.99, "end": 737.75, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-011", "start": 737.77, "end": 739.89, "text": "So, let's talk about a very specific example.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-012", "start": 741.64, "end": 742.22, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-013", "start": 743.98, "end": 748.01, "text": "So, let's look at facial recognition technology.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-014", "start": 749.33, "end": 749.79, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-015", "start": 749.83, "end": 750.65, "text": "You go to the airport,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-016", "start": 750.87, "end": 754.94, "text": "and you're scanned, and they know who you are.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-017", "start": 754.98, "end": 756.38, "text": "Right? You go to a supermarket,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-018", "start": 756.66, "end": 758.06, "text": "you scan your face, and you pay.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-019", "start": 758.26, "end": 759.44, "text": "Right? And you're like, wait,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-020", "start": 759.48, "end": 760.1, "text": "how does that work?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-021", "start": 760.52, "end": 767.51, "text": "Okay. So, how this works is that there's a database.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-022", "start": 768.37, "end": 770.03, "text": "Okay? About one billion people,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-023", "start": 770.17, "end": 771.31, "text": "like everyone in China.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-024", "start": 772.15, "end": 775.39, "text": "And now, what I need to do is figure out how to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-025", "start": 775.39, "end": 778.21, "text": "differentiate the faces of everyone", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-026", "start": 778.21, "end": 779.65, "text": "in China in this database.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "3dd492a2af27f230deacb6787c74359b25baeabd9aee9214e41fa361780a398b", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0010", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=700s", "time_label": "11:40", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0011", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "start": 780.25, "end": 843.41, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? Does that make sense? So, what I do is for the face, I create a mathematical model based on topology. Okay? Does that make sense? Topology. So, I turn everyone's face into a mathematical model. Okay? Which looks like something like this. Okay? And you're like, I don't know what this is. Okay. You don't need to know what this is. This is, like, super complicated. Okay? But, all you need to know is that, within this model, there are different equations. Okay? So, for example, this model is trying to analyze the distance between your eyes. Okay? And how big your nose is. All right? Does that make sense? All right? Um, and, so once I create this mathematical model, what I'm going to do is I'm going model I am now able to differentiate everyone in China does that make sense okay in fact this math about this mathematical is so precise", "word_count": 155, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-001", "start": 780.25, "end": 781.23, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-002", "start": 781.67, "end": 785.03, "text": "So, what I do is for the face,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-003", "start": 785.33, "end": 789.77, "text": "I create a mathematical model based on topology.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-004", "start": 790.66, "end": 791.56, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-005", "start": 792, "end": 798.92, "text": "Topology. So, I turn everyone's face into a mathematical model.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-006", "start": 798.92, "end": 802.2, "text": "Okay? Which looks like something like this.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-007", "start": 802.3, "end": 806.42, "text": "Okay? And you're like, I don't know what this is.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-008", "start": 806.56, "end": 808.38, "text": "Okay. You don't need to know what this is.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-009", "start": 808.4, "end": 809.38, "text": "This is, like, super complicated.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-010", "start": 809.48, "end": 811.74, "text": "Okay? But, all you need to know is that,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-011", "start": 811.76, "end": 814.74, "text": "within this model, there are different equations.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-012", "start": 815.16, "end": 820.49, "text": "Okay? So, for example, this model is trying to analyze the distance", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-013", "start": 820.49, "end": 821.25, "text": "between your eyes.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-014", "start": 821.41, "end": 823.63, "text": "Okay? And how big your nose is.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-015", "start": 825.32, "end": 825.82, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-016", "start": 825.84, "end": 826.3, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-017", "start": 826.68, "end": 827.24, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-018", "start": 828.61, "end": 831.91, "text": "Um, and, so once I create this mathematical model,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-019", "start": 831.91, "end": 833.76, "text": "what I'm going to do is I'm going model I am now", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-020", "start": 833.76, "end": 840.45, "text": "able to differentiate everyone in China does that make sense okay in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-021", "start": 840.45, "end": 843.41, "text": "fact this math about this mathematical is so precise", "word_count": 9 } ], "text_sha256": "2da44aae0aaa96facaf72a76eddb932ca236487fd31b3a053d7f74b41e4ca931", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0011", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=780s", "time_label": "13:00", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0012", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "start": 843.41, "end": 915.32, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "that I can only look at your eyes and I know who you are okay because what I'm trying to do is match what your model with the model in the database all right but what what's important to remember is that if you're not in this database you can't be recognized okay do you understand all right now what I will show you is how this model is created so what happens is this all right what I do is I teach the computer how to create this database so I've input of output and then what I do is I create a working thesis or a working theory of what this model should look like it doesn't make sense all right so it could be like this all right and then what I do is I put faces okay and the output should match what's in the database and if the model returns something that's different I tell", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-001", "start": 843.41, "end": 845.97, "text": "that I can only look at your eyes and I know who", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-002", "start": 845.97, "end": 851.22, "text": "you are okay because what I'm trying to do is match what", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-003", "start": 851.22, "end": 857.88, "text": "your model with the model in the database all right but what", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-004", "start": 857.88, "end": 861.04, "text": "what's important to remember is that if you're not in this database", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-005", "start": 861.04, "end": 867.02, "text": "you can't be recognized okay do you understand all right now what", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-006", "start": 867.02, "end": 871.64, "text": "I will show you is how this model is created so what", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-007", "start": 871.64, "end": 876.3, "text": "happens is this all right what I do is I teach the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-008", "start": 876.3, "end": 882.43, "text": "computer how to create this database so I've input of output and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-009", "start": 883.87, "end": 890.23, "text": "then what I do is I create a working thesis or a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-010", "start": 890.23, "end": 894.53, "text": "working theory of what this model should look like it doesn't make", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-011", "start": 894.53, "end": 900.73, "text": "sense all right so it could be like this all right and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": 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becomes this doesn't make sense okay so what this what all AI is is infinite iteration okay it doesn't make sense all right okay so the problem with AI is I need to be able to solve three things if I can solve three things then I can create an AI okay the first thing is that I need clear metrics okay or clear outputs it doesn't make sense I need output like I can define as a mathematical model okay I can like Wirtschaft if for example if I'm an airline I'm use I'm gonna use AI to maximize the amount of money I make on a flight right okay that's my output how much money can I make of a flight I want to have the maximum amount of profit okay that's the first thing I need to solve second thing I", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-001", "start": 915.32, "end": 918.8, "text": "this is wrong and what the computer then does is we find", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-002", "start": 918.8, "end": 924.72, "text": "this model until it becomes this doesn't make sense okay so what", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-003", "start": 924.72, "end": 931.4, "text": "this what all AI is is infinite iteration okay it doesn't make", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-004", "start": 931.4, "end": 939.59, "text": "sense all right okay so the problem with AI is I need", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-005", "start": 939.59, "end": 943.17, "text": "to be able to solve three things if I can solve three", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-006", "start": 943.17, "end": 948.17, "text": "things then I can create an AI okay the first thing is", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-007", "start": 948.17, "end": 960.9, "text": "that I need clear metrics okay or clear outputs it doesn't make", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-008", "start": 960.9, "end": 965.32, "text": "sense I need output like I can define as a mathematical model", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-009", "start": 965.32, "end": 972.59, "text": "okay I can like Wirtschaft if for example if I'm an airline", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-010", "start": 972.59, "end": 975.53, "text": "I'm use I'm gonna use AI to maximize the amount of money", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-011", "start": 975.53, "end": 979.87, "text": "I make on a flight right okay that's my output how much", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-012", "start": 979.87, "end": 983.43, "text": "money can I make of a flight I want to have the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-013", "start": 983.43, "end": 987.39, "text": "maximum amount of profit okay that's the first thing I need to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-014", "start": 987.39, "end": 989.07, "text": "solve second thing I", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "59ecc7ca0d8e4ac066eb02afe0c01850786d57c1eea22a344d66b78c025dc5d7", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0013", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=915s", "time_label": "15:15", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0014", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "start": 989.07, "end": 1064.61, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "need to solve then is data okay for input but the thing about data is that it has to be cleaner than the score the okay does that make sense it has to be a clean data okay so for example if I want to teach this AI to recognize different animals I need to give it different data sets of different animals okay does that make sense I need to label my data but I can't tell I can't make an AI that's like this is the best ice cream in the world and the reason why is I can't find data on the best ice cream you understand these ice cream is the best ice cream is subjective so I cannot turn that into a data set it does that make sense okay the third thing I need to do is create a working algorithm structure you understand okay computer computers can only refine and optimize the algorithm", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-001", "start": 989.07, "end": 996.16, "text": "need to solve then is data okay for input but the thing", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-002", "start": 996.16, "end": 998.56, "text": "about data is that it has to be cleaner than the score", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-003", "start": 998.56, "end": 1004.9, "text": "the okay does that make sense it has to be a clean", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-004", "start": 1004.9, "end": 1011.56, "text": "data okay so for example if I want to teach this AI", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-005", "start": 1011.56, "end": 1020.06, "text": "to recognize different animals I need to give it different data sets", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-006", "start": 1020.06, "end": 1023, "text": "of different animals okay does that make sense I need to label", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-007", "start": 1023, "end": 1030.2, "text": "my data but I can't tell I can't make an AI that's", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-008", "start": 1030.2, "end": 1033.3, "text": "like this is the best ice cream in the world and the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-009", "start": 1033.3, "end": 1038.24, "text": "reason why is I can't find data on the best ice cream", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-010", "start": 1038.24, "end": 1041.12, "text": "you understand these ice cream is the best ice cream is subjective", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-011", "start": 1041.12, "end": 1045.28, "text": "so I cannot turn that into a data set it does that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-012", "start": 1045.28, "end": 1050.21, "text": "make sense okay the third thing I need to do is create", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-013", "start": 1050.21, "end": 1061.03, "text": "a working algorithm structure you understand okay computer computers can only refine", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-014", "start": 1061.03, "end": 1064.61, "text": "and optimize the algorithm", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "058f84fb720076492b7c54d290379b2873cbe2b96505e032eda62ae3d21b3231", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0014", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=989s", "time_label": "16:29", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0015", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "start": 1064.61, "end": 1160.3, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "structure it cannot create by itself okay so if I'm able to do all three things then I'm able to use AI to optimize what I wanted to optimize okay all right any questions so far before I move on okay so what this means is that that there are certain problems that I can solve using AI, and there are certain problems I cannot solve using AI, okay? So what are easy problems that AI can solve, right? Well, for example, facial recognition technology, okay? Also, translation software, right? I can create an optimal translation software. Also, recommendation engines, right? So if you watch a movie on Netflix, it recommends another movie, right, okay? Now, let me ask you this question. Can I ever solve self -driving cars? Can I ever solve self -driving cars, self -driving cars? Can cars drive by themselves? Yes or no? Why yes, Sally? Okay, the answer is no. Why is the answer no?", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-001", "start": 1064.61, "end": 1070.51, "text": "structure it cannot create by itself okay so if I'm able to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-002", "start": 1070.51, "end": 1077.5, "text": "do all three things then I'm able to use AI to optimize", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-003", "start": 1077.69, "end": 1084.07, "text": "what I wanted to optimize okay all right any questions so far", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-004", "start": 1084.07, "end": 1094.04, "text": "before I move on okay so what this means is that that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-005", "start": 1094.04, "end": 1097.8, "text": "there are certain problems that I can solve using AI,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-006", "start": 1098.46, "end": 1101.68, "text": "and there are certain problems I cannot solve using AI,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-007", "start": 1101.96, "end": 1106.16, "text": "okay? So what are easy problems that AI can solve,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-008", "start": 1106.3, "end": 1109.42, "text": "right? Well, for example, facial recognition technology,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-009", "start": 1109.8, "end": 1114, "text": "okay? Also, translation software, right?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-010", "start": 1114.28, "end": 1117.64, "text": "I can create an optimal translation software.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-011", "start": 1118.12, "end": 1120.86, "text": "Also, recommendation engines, right?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-012", "start": 1120.86, "end": 1123.5, "text": "So if you watch a movie on Netflix,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-013", "start": 1124.42, "end": 1126.6, "text": "it recommends another movie, right,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-014", "start": 1126.76, "end": 1131.62, "text": "okay? Now, let me ask you this question.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-015", "start": 1133.31, "end": 1136.32, "text": "Can I ever solve self -driving cars?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-016", "start": 1137.96, "end": 1140.48, "text": "Can I ever solve self -driving cars,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-017", "start": 1140.7, "end": 1141.64, "text": "self -driving cars?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-018", "start": 1142.8, "end": 1145.02, "text": "Can cars drive by themselves?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-019", "start": 1149.38, "end": 1150.14, "text": "Yes or no?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-020", "start": 1152.29, "end": 1153.67, "text": "Why yes, Sally?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-021", "start": 1157.72, "end": 1158.76, "text": "Okay, the answer is no.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-022", "start": 1159.62, "end": 1160.3, "text": "Why is the answer no?", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "697b9355fdd12e138db1b3c39ee4180573229140a18e466b6efe80d348225284", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0015", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=1064s", "time_label": "17:44", "tags": [ "monologue", "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0016", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "start": 1162.21, "end": 1249.85, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay, the answer no is, whatever I do, okay, I cannot solve something called the edge case. The edge case is, if the car is on the road, what could happen that would screw up my AI system? You guys know? Why can't self -driving cars be solved? Why can't we have self -driving cars on the roads? What's an edge case, or this thing that I can never solve? What is it? Excuse me? Yeah. Yeah, and what is not planned? Hm? They can plan for traffic. What can they not plan for? And this is why we'll never have self -driving cars. They can plan for accidents. What can they not plan for? Easily plan for traffic rules. What can they not plan for? Okay, guys, the edge case with self -driving cars is, if I, as a human being, intentionally want to crash into that car. You understand? Does that make sense to you guys? Every other situation I can plan for.", "word_count": 165, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-001", "start": 1162.21, "end": 1163.73, "text": "Okay, the answer no is,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-002", "start": 1163.73, "end": 1169.28, "text": "whatever I do, okay, I cannot solve something called the edge case.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-003", "start": 1173.2, "end": 1177.36, "text": "The edge case is, if the car is on the road,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-004", "start": 1178.57, "end": 1181.61, "text": "what could happen that would screw up my AI system?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-005", "start": 1182.69, "end": 1183.35, "text": "You guys know?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-006", "start": 1184.06, "end": 1185.88, "text": "Why can't self -driving cars be solved?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-007", "start": 1187.55, "end": 1190.45, "text": "Why can't we have self -driving cars on the roads?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-008", "start": 1192.04, "end": 1196.54, "text": "What's an edge case, or this thing that I can never solve?", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-009", "start": 1197.8, "end": 1198.56, "text": "What is it?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-010", "start": 1203.13, "end": 1203.69, "text": "Excuse me?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-011", "start": 1206.74, "end": 1208.16, "text": "Yeah. Yeah, and what is not planned?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-012", "start": 1210.87, "end": 1213.42, "text": "Hm? They can plan for traffic.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-013", "start": 1213.6, "end": 1215.72, "text": "What can they not plan for?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-014", "start": 1217.49, "end": 1219.53, "text": "And this is why we'll never have self -driving cars.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-015", "start": 1221.09, "end": 1222.05, "text": "They can plan for accidents.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-016", "start": 1222.17, "end": 1223.45, "text": "What can they not plan for?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-017", "start": 1226.39, "end": 1227.65, "text": "Easily plan for traffic rules.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-018", "start": 1227.81, "end": 1228.81, "text": "What can they not plan for?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-019", "start": 1231.94, "end": 1235.52, "text": "Okay, guys, the edge case with self -driving cars is,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-020", "start": 1236.3, "end": 1237.78, "text": "if I, as a human being,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-021", "start": 1237.92, "end": 1241.1, "text": "intentionally want to crash into that car.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-022", "start": 1241.92, "end": 1242.26, "text": "You understand?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-023", "start": 1245.46, "end": 1246.52, "text": "Does that make sense to you guys?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-024", "start": 1247.71, "end": 1248.15, "text": "Every other", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-025", "start": 1248.15, "end": 1249.85, "text": "situation I can plan for.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "89e327766eb7fb47aa59bea39d08ac7f7586629797302ad4c1fe860f5776b910", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0016", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=1162s", "time_label": "19:22", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0017", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "start": 1250.09, "end": 1315.08, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "But in a situation where I'm the human being, and I don't like self -driving cars because I'm a taxi driver, and it's stealing my job, right? It's stealing my livelihood, and I want to crash into that car. There's no way for that AI to avoid the accident. Does that make sense? Okay. Listen, listen. AI is a scam, okay? It does not exist. What exists is super power. machine learning okay what is supervised machine learning what I just told you okay that's it that's the extent of our technology it can it does not have self -awareness it can only do what the algorithm tells it to do and there's no way you can design an algorithm that plans for and prevents a human being who who intentionally wants to crash into you okay does that make sense all right so AI in other words is actually limited tool okay so you", "word_count": 155, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-001", "start": 1250.09, "end": 1252.91, "text": "But in a situation where I'm the human being,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-002", "start": 1253.01, "end": 1255.75, "text": "and I don't like self -driving cars because I'm a taxi driver,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-003", "start": 1255.91, "end": 1257.13, "text": "and it's stealing my job,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-004", "start": 1257.37, "end": 1259.11, "text": "right? It's stealing my livelihood,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-005", "start": 1259.49, "end": 1260.81, "text": "and I want to crash into that car.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-006", "start": 1261.01, "end": 1266.06, "text": "There's no way for that AI to avoid the accident.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-007", "start": 1266.52, "end": 1267.34, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-008", "start": 1268.89, "end": 1274.35, "text": "Okay. Listen, listen.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-009", "start": 1275.78, "end": 1277.86, "text": "AI is a scam, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-010", "start": 1278.02, "end": 1278.86, "text": "It does not exist.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-011", "start": 1279.08, "end": 1281.08, "text": "What exists is super power.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-012", "start": 1281.08, "end": 1286, "text": "machine learning okay what is supervised machine learning what I just told", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-013", "start": 1286, "end": 1289.82, "text": "you okay that's it that's the extent of our technology it can", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-014", "start": 1289.82, "end": 1294.94, "text": "it does not have self -awareness it can only do what the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-015", "start": 1294.94, "end": 1297.76, "text": "algorithm tells it to do and there's no way you can design", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-016", "start": 1297.76, "end": 1304.06, "text": "an algorithm that plans for and prevents a human being who who", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-017", "start": 1304.06, "end": 1307.52, "text": "intentionally wants to crash into you okay does that make sense all", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-018", "start": 1307.52, "end": 1314.59, "text": "right so AI in other words is actually limited tool okay so", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-019", "start": 1314.94, "end": 1315.08, "text": "you", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "479c06f6ab43d6e3b9b00bc27c59e7e7204642bd0f7476a41e1cf67800ae1c1d", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0017", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=1250s", "time_label": "20:50", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0018", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "start": 1315.08, "end": 1392.53, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "think about actual applications of AI it's it's very limited you also look at self -driving cars now there are cars that have self -driving features but they are not 100 % self -driving it doesn't make sense in fact they tell you don't don't rely on the autopilot okay it's there to help you you but don't sleep in the car okay right because they don't have an AI system in place to prevent people from crashing into them okay does that make sense all right so now that we know what AI is let's talk about how we can use AI to predict the future okay okay all right so basically what you need to do is three things right you need to be clear about the output you need to have clean data and you need to have a working algorithm okay does that make sense and so that's what I've been doing this semester okay so", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-001", "start": 1315.08, "end": 1319.7, "text": "think about actual applications of AI it's it's very limited you also", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-002", "start": 1319.7, "end": 1323.8, "text": "look at self -driving cars now there are cars that have self", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-003", "start": 1323.8, "end": 1329.32, "text": "-driving features but they are not 100 % self -driving it doesn't", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-004", "start": 1329.32, "end": 1333.76, "text": "make sense in fact they tell you don't don't rely on the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-005", "start": 1333.76, "end": 1339.56, "text": "autopilot okay it's there to help you you but don't sleep in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-006", "start": 1339.56, "end": 1347.27, "text": "the car okay right because they don't have an AI system in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-007", "start": 1347.27, "end": 1352.65, "text": "place to prevent people from crashing into them okay does that make", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-008", "start": 1352.65, "end": 1357.55, "text": "sense all right so now that we know what AI is let's", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-009", "start": 1357.55, "end": 1363.59, "text": "talk about how we can use AI to predict the future okay", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-010", "start": 1363.59, "end": 1372.92, "text": "okay all right so basically what you need to do is three", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-011", "start": 1372.92, "end": 1377.66, "text": "things right you need to be clear about the output you need", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-012", "start": 1377.66, "end": 1383.56, "text": "to have clean data and you need to have a working algorithm", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-013", "start": 1383.56, "end": 1389.32, "text": "okay does that make sense and so that's what I've been doing", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-014", "start": 1389.32, "end": 1392.53, "text": "this semester okay so", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "9527e15a429faf1a4d2a172ec92b991d65e74774bc04b9e7a609fdd5e0e6a380", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0018", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=1315s", "time_label": "21:55", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0019", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "start": 1392.53, "end": 1489.46, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "for example remember what we remember my predictions the issue a lobby, Saudi Arabia and the American Empire, basically the need to protect the petrodollar, will force America to go to war with Iran. These are the push factors. The problem is that there are no forces to counteract this. For example, the military will be for this because they have shock and awe, and they are very confident they can win this war. Iran itself wants this war because it wants revenge against America. And then the President of the United States, who will be Donald Trump, he wants this war in order to cement his position as President. And so because of this, we can predict that there will be a war in Iran. Does that make sense? Now, given this prediction, what we can then do is use mathematical modeling and statistics to turn this into an AI model. Does that make sense? Now we have the AI model.", "word_count": 162, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-001", "start": 1392.53, "end": 1400.17, "text": "for example remember what we remember my predictions the issue a lobby,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-002", "start": 1400.39, "end": 1405.79, "text": "Saudi Arabia and the American Empire,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-003", "start": 1406.17, "end": 1410.07, "text": "basically the need to protect the petrodollar,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-004", "start": 1410.85, "end": 1415.86, "text": "will force America to go to war with Iran.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-005", "start": 1416.22, "end": 1419.88, "text": "These are the push factors.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-006", "start": 1420.26, "end": 1426.88, "text": "The problem is that there are no forces to counteract this.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-007", "start": 1427.34, "end": 1435.1, "text": "For example, the military will be for this because they have shock", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-008", "start": 1435.1, "end": 1437.86, "text": "and awe, and they are very confident they can win this war.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-009", "start": 1438.72, "end": 1445.72, "text": "Iran itself wants this war because it wants revenge against America.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-010", "start": 1447.76, "end": 1450.1, "text": "And then the President of the United States,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-011", "start": 1450.16, "end": 1451.18, "text": "who will be Donald Trump,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-012", "start": 1451.36, "end": 1456.97, "text": "he wants this war in order to cement his position as President.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-013", "start": 1458.15, "end": 1460.07, "text": "And so because of this,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-014", "start": 1460.21, "end": 1464.77, "text": "we can predict that there will be a war in Iran.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-015", "start": 1465.51, "end": 1466.55, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-016", "start": 1467.52, "end": 1475.38, "text": "Now, given this prediction, what we can then do is use mathematical", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-017", "start": 1475.38, "end": 1480.56, "text": "modeling and statistics to turn this into an AI model.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-018", "start": 1482.02, "end": 1483.7, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-019", "start": 1486.82, "end": 1488.48, "text": "Now we have the", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-020", "start": 1488.48, "end": 1489.46, "text": "AI model.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "b9442e2b9b9b34cb66d681364b04dd0c3547237452dd42e62adadab3c6e6199b", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0019", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=1392s", "time_label": "23:12", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0020", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "start": 1492.18, "end": 1578.57, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Now that we have the AI model, what we need to do now is to refine it. And the way we refine it is by going back in history and looking at every single war that started. Does that make sense? You take this model and you look at the different wars. For example, the 415 BCE invasion of Sicily by Athens. You look at 1941 Operation Barbarossa. You have basically hundreds of wars that you can look at. And then you take this model, and then you test it using each of these wars. And what will happen is that the model will begin to refine itself. Does that make sense? So it becomes more and more refined. But then that's one model for what causes war. I've also said that Trump will become president, right? Well, then that's another model that you can use. And once you start putting all these models together, what eventually happens over time is you develop psychohistory.", "word_count": 164, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-001", "start": 1492.18, "end": 1493.18, "text": "Now that we have the AI model,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-002", "start": 1493.6, "end": 1497.74, "text": "what we need to do now is to refine it.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-003", "start": 1498.02, "end": 1502.64, "text": "And the way we refine it is by going back in history", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-004", "start": 1502.64, "end": 1506.14, "text": "and looking at every single war that started.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-005", "start": 1506.7, "end": 1507.8, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-006", "start": 1508.38, "end": 1513.3, "text": "You take this model and you look at the different wars.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-007", "start": 1513.76, "end": 1521.02, "text": "For example, the 415 BCE invasion of Sicily by Athens.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-008", "start": 1522.18, "end": 1525.66, "text": "You look at 1941 Operation Barbarossa.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-009", "start": 1525.8, "end": 1529.56, "text": "You have basically hundreds of wars that you can look at.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-010", "start": 1529.91, "end": 1531.73, "text": "And then you take this model,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-011", "start": 1531.93, "end": 1535.41, "text": "and then you test it using each of these wars.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-012", "start": 1535.59, "end": 1540.95, "text": "And what will happen is that the model will begin to refine", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-013", "start": 1540.95, "end": 1544.4, "text": "itself. Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-014", "start": 1544.62, "end": 1545.98, "text": "So it becomes more and more refined.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-015", "start": 1553.02, "end": 1556.58, "text": "But then that's one model for what causes war.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-016", "start": 1556.58, "end": 1562.94, "text": "I've also said that Trump will become president,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-017", "start": 1563.14, "end": 1568.55, "text": "right? Well, then that's another model that you can use.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-018", "start": 1568.81, "end": 1571.73, "text": "And once you start putting all these models together,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-019", "start": 1572.13, "end": 1574.49, "text": "what eventually happens", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-020", "start": 1574.49, "end": 1578.57, "text": "over time is you develop psychohistory.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "058d08d9aa64a2b33174ebbaa788f1d5e2f776b80b091694c96e18f94f54a108", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0020", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=1492s", "time_label": "24:52", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0021", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "start": 1579.93, "end": 1665.46, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? Does this make sense, guys? All right. So now the question then is, okay, how would this AI model work? Or what are sort of the ideas behind this model? Okay? So we talk about game theory analysis a lot. All right? And the idea of game theory analysis is that, okay, guys, there's really no good and evil. Okay? There are different players in a game, and they're all self -interested. They all want to win this game. So they're going to develop strategies that optimize their ability to win this game. Okay? So you can use game theory analysis. But then you can also develop new ideas that would help you better understand how the world works. Okay? So let's talk about some ideas that have come up in this course. All right? So one thing I want to talk about is this week's European elections. Have you guys seen the news, the elections to the European parliament?", "word_count": 161, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-001", "start": 1579.93, "end": 1583.13, "text": "Okay? Does this make sense,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-002", "start": 1583.21, "end": 1584.77, "text": "guys? All right.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-003", "start": 1585.27, "end": 1587.99, "text": "So now the question then is,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-004", "start": 1589.42, "end": 1594, "text": "okay, how would this AI model work?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-005", "start": 1594.26, "end": 1598.86, "text": "Or what are sort of the ideas behind this model?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-006", "start": 1599.28, "end": 1604.39, "text": "Okay? So we talk about game theory analysis a lot.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-007", "start": 1608.19, "end": 1608.89, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-008", "start": 1609.05, "end": 1611.33, "text": "And the idea of game theory analysis is that,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-009", "start": 1611.43, "end": 1615.05, "text": "okay, guys, there's really no good and evil.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-010", "start": 1615.44, "end": 1618.82, "text": "Okay? There are different players in a game,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-011", "start": 1618.9, "end": 1621.26, "text": "and they're all self -interested.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-012", "start": 1621.4, "end": 1623.14, "text": "They all want to win this game.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-013", "start": 1623.64, "end": 1628.48, "text": "So they're going to develop strategies that optimize their ability to win", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-014", "start": 1628.48, "end": 1629.1, "text": "this game.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-015", "start": 1629.32, "end": 1632.63, "text": "Okay? So you can use game theory analysis.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-016", "start": 1633.38, "end": 1639.14, "text": "But then you can also develop new ideas that would help you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-017", "start": 1639.14, "end": 1642.34, "text": "better understand how the world works.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-018", "start": 1642.46, "end": 1649.53, "text": "Okay? So let's talk about some ideas that have come up in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-019", "start": 1649.53, "end": 1650.83, "text": "this course.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-020", "start": 1651.52, "end": 1652.28, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-021", "start": 1652.36, "end": 1657.64, "text": "So one thing I want to talk about is this week's European", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-022", "start": 1657.64, "end": 1660.54, "text": "elections. Have you guys seen the", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-023", "start": 1660.54, "end": 1665.46, "text": "news, the elections to the European parliament?", "word_count": 7 } ], "text_sha256": "2cbcf93439de658931ebdd6815384ebba9ccb8a799dddd2581eaee559b1ff67c", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0021", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=1579s", "time_label": "26:19", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0022", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "start": 1665.86, "end": 1759.24, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And the results are pretty shocking, because it signals a clear shift to the right. So, for example, Marylepaine's party in France picked up a lot of votes this week. of votes. The AFD, the Alternative for Germany in Germany, which is considered a right -wing organization, almost neo -nazi, has picked up a lot of votes as well. The results were so dramatic that Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, has called for an early election and it's possible in three months time Marine Le Pen's party will run and govern France. Okay? So how to explain this shift to the right and I want to explain three reasons, okay. The first reason is anti -immigration. Okay? So, for the past 10 -20 years, there have been a lot of immigrants to Europe from Libya, from Syria, from Iraq, Afghanistan. Afghanistan, Sudan, Somalia, okay? These are mainly Muslim people who threaten the Christian social fabric of Europe, okay?", "word_count": 159, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-001", "start": 1665.86, "end": 1670.62, "text": "And the results are pretty shocking,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-002", "start": 1670.88, "end": 1676.62, "text": "because it signals a clear shift to the right.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-003", "start": 1678.35, "end": 1686.62, "text": "So, for example, Marylepaine's party in France picked up a lot of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-004", "start": 1686.62, "end": 1686.62, "text": "votes this week.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-005", "start": 1686.64, "end": 1687.32, "text": "of votes.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-006", "start": 1688.28, "end": 1691.16, "text": "The AFD, the Alternative for Germany in Germany,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-007", "start": 1691.32, "end": 1693.84, "text": "which is considered a right -wing organization,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-008", "start": 1694.14, "end": 1698.82, "text": "almost neo -nazi, has picked up a lot of votes as well.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-009", "start": 1699.45, "end": 1704.39, "text": "The results were so dramatic that Emmanuel Macron,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-010", "start": 1704.71, "end": 1708.27, "text": "the president of France, has called for an early election and it's", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-011", "start": 1708.27, "end": 1713.29, "text": "possible in three months time Marine Le Pen's party will run and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-012", "start": 1713.29, "end": 1713.87, "text": "govern France.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-013", "start": 1714.05, "end": 1722.33, "text": "Okay? So how to explain this shift to the right and I", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-014", "start": 1722.33, "end": 1724.69, "text": "want to explain three reasons,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-015", "start": 1724.77, "end": 1730.21, "text": "okay. The first reason is anti -immigration.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-016", "start": 1735.23, "end": 1739.26, "text": "Okay? So, for the past 10 -20 years,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-017", "start": 1739.4, "end": 1742.58, "text": "there have been a lot of immigrants to Europe from Libya,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-018", "start": 1742.84, "end": 1745.68, "text": "from Syria, from Iraq, Afghanistan.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-019", "start": 1745.68, "end": 1748.12, "text": "Afghanistan, Sudan, Somalia, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-020", "start": 1748.34, "end": 1755.52, "text": "These are mainly Muslim people who threaten the", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-021", "start": 1755.52, "end": 1758.64, "text": "Christian social fabric of Europe,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-022", "start": 1758.74, "end": 1759.24, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "e3df14a806f3a6492d768f5d4cfc6164ec071d4196a8f4a7d2df35716ab94add", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0022", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=1665s", "time_label": "27:45", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0023", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "start": 1759.24, "end": 1852.59, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And now Europeans are rebelling or revolting against that. Second thing that they don't like about Europe so far is the idea of federalism, okay? Or they can say bureaucratism. But it's the idea that a foreign power, Brussels, mandates rules that they must follow. So they think it's very anti -democratic, okay? And the third thing that they're rebelling against is the idea of pan -Europeanism. What the people of Europe are saying is there's no European identity, guys. There's a German identity, there's a French identity, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, but there's no European identity. They're rebelling against the entire project of the EU. In fact, I would bet that in about five years' time, the entire EU would be dead, okay? Why are they opposed to pan -Europeanism? Because ultimately, they believe that because ultimately, they believe that it's about destroying local identity. It's about destroying local community. It's about destroying my relationship with my neighbors and my friends and my relatives, okay?", "word_count": 165, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-001", "start": 1759.24, "end": 1763.74, "text": "And now Europeans are rebelling or revolting against that.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-002", "start": 1764.73, "end": 1769.69, "text": "Second thing that they don't like about Europe so far is the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-003", "start": 1769.69, "end": 1771.79, "text": "idea of federalism, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-004", "start": 1772.54, "end": 1774.98, "text": "Or they can say bureaucratism.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-005", "start": 1774.98, "end": 1779.59, "text": "But it's the idea that a foreign power,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-006", "start": 1780.03, "end": 1784.97, "text": "Brussels, mandates rules that they must follow.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-007", "start": 1785.7, "end": 1787.7, "text": "So they think it's very anti -democratic,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-008", "start": 1787.88, "end": 1793.78, "text": "okay? And the third thing that they're rebelling against is the idea", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-009", "start": 1793.78, "end": 1796.21, "text": "of pan -Europeanism.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-010", "start": 1799.16, "end": 1803.8, "text": "What the people of Europe are saying is there's no European identity,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-011", "start": 1804, "end": 1805.8, "text": "guys. There's a German identity,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-012", "start": 1806.02, "end": 1807.44, "text": "there's a French identity, Italian,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-013", "start": 1807.84, "end": 1811.1, "text": "Spanish, Portuguese, but there's no European identity.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-014", "start": 1811.42, "end": 1815.52, "text": "They're rebelling against the entire project of the EU.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-015", "start": 1815.84, "end": 1819.9, "text": "In fact, I would bet that in about five years' time,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-016", "start": 1820.12, "end": 1823.32, "text": "the entire EU would be dead,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-017", "start": 1823.48, "end": 1830.8, "text": "okay? Why are they opposed to pan -Europeanism?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-018", "start": 1834.64, "end": 1839.6, "text": "Because ultimately, they believe that because ultimately,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-019", "start": 1839.6, "end": 1842.42, "text": "they believe that it's about destroying local identity.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-020", "start": 1842.66, "end": 1844.74, "text": "It's about destroying local community.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-021", "start": 1845.04, "end": 1847.22, "text": "It's about destroying my", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-022", "start": 1847.22, "end": 1852.2, "text": "relationship with my neighbors and my friends and my relatives,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-023", "start": 1852.3, "end": 1852.59, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "6867fd588b35f5fded3a23a962da2c35c0a8fbf455f4cb8f89ff459a621205b3", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0023", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=1759s", "time_label": "29:19", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0024", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "start": 1852.59, "end": 1947.8, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And my family. Does that make sense? Okay, it's imposing a foreign identity on me. And proponents of the European Union would argue that, no, this is just a secular, liberal idea, okay? The entire idea of the EU is that for hundreds of years, thousands of years, Europe has been at war. Why has Europe been at war? Tribalism, right? Religion. So the entire project of the EU is to get rid of the factors that lead to war. Local identity, nationalism, religion, right? And what the European voters are saying to the EU is, sorry, we don't want secular liberalism because we want to be human, okay? What we strive for is not a abstract, liberal idea. We strive for structure, meaning, and power. And purpose in our lives, okay? What we really strive for is a capacity to love, create, and learn, okay? And grow. Does that make sense?", "word_count": 152, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-001", "start": 1852.59, "end": 1853.46, "text": "And my family.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-002", "start": 1853.75, "end": 1854.54, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-003", "start": 1855.13, "end": 1859.3, "text": "Okay, it's imposing a foreign identity on me.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-004", "start": 1860.19, "end": 1869.7, "text": "And proponents of the European Union would argue that,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-005", "start": 1869.7, "end": 1872.1, "text": "no, this is just a secular,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-006", "start": 1872.28, "end": 1879.14, "text": "liberal idea, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-007", "start": 1879.42, "end": 1883.84, "text": "The entire idea of the EU is that for hundreds of years,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-008", "start": 1884.68, "end": 1887.18, "text": "thousands of years, Europe has been at war.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-009", "start": 1887.78, "end": 1888.82, "text": "Why has Europe been at war?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-010", "start": 1889.22, "end": 1890.04, "text": "Tribalism, right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-011", "start": 1890.2, "end": 1895.61, "text": "Religion. So the entire project of the EU is to get rid", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-012", "start": 1895.61, "end": 1900.51, "text": "of the factors that lead to war.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-013", "start": 1900.51, "end": 1904.01, "text": "Local identity, nationalism, religion, right?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-014", "start": 1904.55, "end": 1908.19, "text": "And what the European voters are saying to the EU is,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-015", "start": 1908.39, "end": 1916.21, "text": "sorry, we don't want secular liberalism because we want to be human,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-016", "start": 1916.53, "end": 1924.04, "text": "okay? What we strive for is not a abstract,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-017", "start": 1924.34, "end": 1925.66, "text": "liberal idea.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-018", "start": 1925.94, "end": 1929.88, "text": "We strive for structure, meaning,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-019", "start": 1931.73, "end": 1933.37, "text": "and power.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-020", "start": 1933.39, "end": 1935.29, "text": "And purpose in our lives,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-021", "start": 1935.39, "end": 1941.66, "text": "okay? What we really strive for is a capacity to love,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-022", "start": 1942.4, "end": 1945.18, "text": "create, and learn, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-023", "start": 1945.28, "end": 1945.76, "text": "And grow.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-024", "start": 1946.18, "end": 1947.02, "text": "Does", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-025", "start": 1947.46, "end": 1947.8, "text": "that make sense?", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "23c0da29ddcd1ca91da882b74fc11b361416a6e96acb87a5152a007cc3affc9d", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0024", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=1852s", "time_label": "30:52", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0025", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "start": 1947.98, "end": 2042.183, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "That's what we are fundamentally as human beings. And when you ask me to obey an abstract foreign entity that is very far from me, then you are, like, not human. You are limiting or destroying the structure, meaning, and purpose in my life, okay? And so that's what's going on, not just in Europe, but throughout the world. You think about Brexit, right? You think about the election of Donald Trump, right? All these things has to do with this fundamental human urge to have structure, meaning, and purpose in our lives, okay? To have agency, okay? Does that make sense, guys? All right, any questions so far? Yeah, Eric? Okay, so Eric asked, okay, what is the source of all this? And what Dante and Homer would say is the human heart, okay? The human heart. This is just who we are. And if we cannot fulfill our human heart, we will rebel. We will destroy.", "word_count": 158, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-001", "start": 1947.98, "end": 1952.22, "text": "That's what we are fundamentally as human beings.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-002", "start": 1953.27, "end": 1961.2, "text": "And when you ask me to obey an abstract foreign entity that", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-003", "start": 1961.2, "end": 1962.94, "text": "is very far from me,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-004", "start": 1963.06, "end": 1965.68, "text": "then you are, like, not human.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-005", "start": 1965.68, "end": 1968.42, "text": "You are limiting or destroying the structure,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-006", "start": 1968.58, "end": 1971.5, "text": "meaning, and purpose in my life,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-007", "start": 1971.76, "end": 1975.74, "text": "okay? 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And so, in other words, one idea in this AI model is that there is a fundamental underlying structure to human society, okay? If society conforms to the structure of the human heart, this society will prosper. For example, Athens, right? The ancient Greeks. That society prospered. The word we used was eudaimonia, right? Okay? But if society represses the human heart, then ultimately, the society will have to collapse at some point, okay? So that's another principle that we can use when developing this AI model. The last idea that we can use in developing this AI model is the idea of synchronicity, okay? Synchronicity. And the idea of synchronicity is, as a society, how willing are people... How willing are people in following the rules. Okay? Does that make sense? So when you drive the car, do you actually follow traffic rules? 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If society conforms to the structure of the human heart,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-006", "start": 2067.32, "end": 2069.51, "text": "this society will prosper.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-007", "start": 2069.75, "end": 2071.89, "text": "For example, Athens, right?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-008", "start": 2072.95, "end": 2073.55, "text": "The ancient Greeks.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-009", "start": 2073.75, "end": 2075.45, "text": "That society prospered.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-010", "start": 2075.55, "end": 2077.85, "text": "The word we used was eudaimonia,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-011", "start": 2078.01, "end": 2079.89, "text": "right? 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For pregnant women? Okay? When you go to the park, do people actually pick up garbage and throw it in the garbage bin, okay? Sequanticity tells us that there's cohesion and trust in society, that society is resilient, and that society can grow or learn from its mistakes. So societies that have high sequanticity will do better in the long term than societies with low sequanticity. And so societies with high sequanticity would include Japan and Germany, right? And societies with low sequanticity would include India and Brazil and China, okay? Does that make sense? All right? So these are all of the ideas that we developed this semester or in this year, that there's an underlying truth and meaning to human society. And if we embrace these truths, then society will prosper. But if we try to deny these truths, then eventually society will have to collapse and we're going to start over again, ok?", "word_count": 158, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-001", "start": 2135.68, "end": 2136.38, "text": "For children?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-002", "start": 2136.66, "end": 2137.5, "text": "For pregnant women?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-003", "start": 2137.7, "end": 2140.3, "text": "Okay? When you go to the park,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-004", "start": 2140.42, "end": 2144.04, "text": "do people actually pick up garbage and throw it in the garbage", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-005", "start": 2144.04, "end": 2144.58, "text": "bin, okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-006", "start": 2144.92, "end": 2151.34, "text": "Sequanticity tells us that there's cohesion and trust in society,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-007", "start": 2151.64, "end": 2161.08, "text": "that society is resilient, and that society can grow or learn from", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-008", "start": 2161.08, "end": 2161.62, "text": "its mistakes.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-009", "start": 2163.54, "end": 2169.02, "text": "So societies that have high sequanticity will do better in the long", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-010", "start": 2169.02, "end": 2171.98, "text": "term than societies with low sequanticity.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-011", "start": 2172.2, "end": 2177.02, "text": "And so societies with high sequanticity would include Japan and Germany,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-012", "start": 2177.16, "end": 2182.9, "text": "right? And societies with low sequanticity would include India and Brazil and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-013", "start": 2182.9, "end": 2184.02, "text": "China, okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-014", "start": 2185.22, "end": 2186, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-015", "start": 2186.61, "end": 2187.37, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-016", "start": 2188.38, "end": 2192.8, "text": "So these are all of the ideas that we developed this semester", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-017", "start": 2192.8, "end": 2197.76, "text": "or in this year, that there's an underlying truth and meaning to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-018", "start": 2197.76, "end": 2199.08, "text": "human society.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-019", "start": 2199.08, "end": 2202.36, "text": "And if we embrace these truths,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-020", "start": 2202.76, "end": 2204.74, "text": "then society will prosper.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-021", "start": 2205.04, "end": 2207.46, "text": "But if we try to deny these truths,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-022", "start": 2207.76, "end": 2210.06, "text": "then eventually society will have to collapse and we're going to start", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-023", "start": 2210.06, "end": 2211.92, "text": "over again, ok?", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "1df50b54e8880cdc1639dce75f20e536882e7d557c5db7a6b94dd47bfce63efc", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0027", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=2135s", "time_label": "35:35", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0028", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "start": 2212.06, "end": 2310.6, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Does it make sense? Any questions so far? Yeah, excuse me? Okay, that's a great question, okay? So one thing that was not supposed to happen is the idea of mass estás? You can say that mass society is a complete, what's the word I'm looking for, deviation from human history. We're not supposed to have mass society. And mass society is completely an accident, a historical accident. But when you have mass society, what happens is that you need an elite. You need an elite. But guess what, guys? The elite, the people in charge, they're not better than you and me, do you understand? We in this classroom, we could swap for the leadership of the world, and guys, nothing would change. Do you understand? So you have mass society, and therefore, you have to have an artificial elite, because you need people in mass society. You need people in control. And because you're in control, they need to now maintain the illusion of their power.", "word_count": 168, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-001", "start": 2212.06, "end": 2212.68, "text": "Does it make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-002", "start": 2213.1, "end": 2214.44, "text": "Any questions so far?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-003", "start": 2215.44, "end": 2216.36, "text": "Yeah, excuse me?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-004", "start": 2226.26, "end": 2227.54, "text": "Okay, that's a great question,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-005", "start": 2227.6, "end": 2236.26, "text": "okay? So one thing that was not supposed to happen is the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-006", "start": 2236.26, "end": 2238.28, "text": "idea of mass estás?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-007", "start": 2240.28, "end": 2245.18, "text": "You can say that mass society is a complete,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-008", "start": 2245.86, "end": 2250.02, "text": "what's the word I'm looking for,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-009", "start": 2250.18, "end": 2252.12, "text": "deviation from human history.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-010", "start": 2252.32, "end": 2255.56, "text": "We're not supposed to have mass society.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-011", "start": 2255.9, "end": 2259.26, "text": "And mass society is completely an accident,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-012", "start": 2259.5, "end": 2260.38, "text": "a historical accident.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-013", "start": 2261.22, "end": 2262.6, "text": "But when you have mass society,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-014", "start": 2262.92, "end": 2266.34, "text": "what happens is that you need an elite.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-015", "start": 2267.89, "end": 2271.26, "text": "You need an elite.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-016", "start": 2271.76, "end": 2272.96, "text": "But guess what, guys?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-017", "start": 2275.57, "end": 2277.13, "text": "The elite, the people in charge,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-018", "start": 2277.45, "end": 2279.25, "text": "they're not better than you and me,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-019", "start": 2279.37, "end": 2280.31, "text": "do you understand?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-020", "start": 2282.61, "end": 2288.58, "text": "We in this classroom, we could swap for the leadership of the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-021", "start": 2288.58, "end": 2291.24, "text": "world, and guys, nothing would change.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-022", "start": 2291.89, "end": 2292.53, "text": "Do you understand?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-023", "start": 2295.26, "end": 2296.4, "text": "So you have mass society,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-024", "start": 2296.58, "end": 2298.96, "text": "and therefore, you have to have an artificial elite,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-025", "start": 2299.16, "end": 2301.76, "text": "because you need people in mass society.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-026", "start": 2301.76, "end": 2302.58, "text": "You need people in control.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-027", "start": 2302.96, "end": 2304.1, "text": "And because you're in", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-028", "start": 2304.1, "end": 2310.6, "text": "control, they need to now maintain the illusion of their power.", "word_count": 11 } ], "text_sha256": "c4d6256ade19c7f0986d1e4e58463a3fc2b68103b8b858687a6a7fbaefd3b296", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0028", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=2212s", "time_label": "36:52", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0029", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "start": 2312.88, "end": 2370.415, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "They need to create fictions. For example, maybe, well, I went to Yale or Harvard, and therefore, I should be at the top. Or maybe I have a higher IQ than you do. Or maybe my dad or my great -great -great -great -grandfather was king. They have to create these fictions. Now. So what happens over time is that these fictions fall apart because they're not that competent. And the most recent example is, you look at the global management of the economy, and you look at the global management of COVID, you look at the global management of war, it's pretty incompetent. And so people wake up and are like, wait a minute, these guys don't really know what they're doing. Okay? And now, so now the elite is now forced to suppress us. Okay? They have to lie. They have to use force to make us obedient.", "word_count": 150, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-001", "start": 2312.88, "end": 2314.7, "text": "They need to create fictions.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-002", "start": 2315.36, "end": 2320, "text": "For example, maybe, well, I went to Yale or Harvard,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-003", "start": 2320.08, "end": 2321.58, "text": "and therefore, I should be at the top.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-004", "start": 2321.72, "end": 2323.68, "text": "Or maybe I have a higher IQ than you do.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-005", "start": 2323.84, "end": 2328.4, "text": "Or maybe my dad or my great -great -great -great -grandfather was", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-006", "start": 2328.4, "end": 2330.36, "text": "king. They have to create these fictions.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-007", "start": 2330.94, "end": 2335.54, "text": "Now. 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And now, so now the elite is now forced to suppress", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-017", "start": 2364.39, "end": 2365.23, "text": "us. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-018", "start": 2365.47, "end": 2366.03, "text": "They have to lie.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-019", "start": 2366.75, "end": 2369.49, "text": "They have to use force to make us", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-020", "start": 2369.49, "end": 2370.415, "text": "obedient.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "6c84cb1bf7db673bc2b902514b078f16e34b49bcb7dfd56fe4629a39a5413ff9", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0029", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=2312s", "time_label": "38:32", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0030", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "start": 2370.415, "end": 2466.28, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? And that's what's happening today. And so this repression can go on for a long time, but to control us, they must repress the human heart. Okay? Because it's in the human heart to want to question. To be curious. Okay? To grow. Okay? And if you think like the people in charge don't know what they're doing, then you're sort of compelled to challenge them. And so what they have to do is suppress the human heart. And they do that by trying to get you to focus on buying things rather than thinking. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? All right. Any more questions? Yes? Yes, Sally? Yes. Yeah. And it has to turn it into a mathematical model. Okay? Do you understand? The human heart has to become like a model, like facial recognition model. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay. So Sally's question is, isn't it true that we're all individual and unique? 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All right.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-015", "start": 2418, "end": 2418.66, "text": "Any more questions?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-016", "start": 2420.96, "end": 2421.94, "text": "Yes? Yes, Sally?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-017", "start": 2421.94, "end": 2436.19, "text": "Yes. Yeah.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-018", "start": 2436.29, "end": 2437.69, "text": "And it has to turn it into a mathematical model.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-019", "start": 2437.79, "end": 2438.23, "text": "Okay? Do you understand?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-020", "start": 2438.55, "end": 2440.73, "text": "The human heart has to become like a model,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-021", "start": 2440.87, "end": 2442.23, "text": "like facial recognition model.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-022", "start": 2442.63, "end": 2444.09, "text": "Okay? 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Right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-004", "start": 2529.74, "end": 2530.7, "text": "This is eudaimonia.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-005", "start": 2531.12, "end": 2532.24, "text": "This is what the Greeks meant.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-006", "start": 2532.48, "end": 2535.5, "text": "By a happy.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-007", "start": 2535.69, "end": 2537.39, "text": "Happy. And self -fulfilled life.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-008", "start": 2537.94, "end": 2538.84, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-009", "start": 2539.2, "end": 2547.58, "text": "Okay? 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Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-013", "start": 2555.89, "end": 2556.5, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-014", "start": 2557.07, "end": 2557.65, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "a06afce307f3b5d322f5fdb1acd7db965141229b81e512fe384ed7a8a08116e6", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0032", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=2524s", "time_label": "42:04", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0033", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "start": 2560.99, "end": 2565.54, "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "text": "Yeah. Yes.", "word_count": 2, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-001", "start": 2560.99, "end": 2565.54, "text": "Yeah. Yes.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "06c902002c07827bc12f5fc0eb862c70d43b81e6f5654d3a49b816fcb1fc7519", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0033", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=2560s", "time_label": "42:40", "tags": [ "unclear" ] }, { "id": "seg-0034", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "start": 2571.87, "end": 2638.102, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay. So, Sally asked the question, like, how do you construct this? This AI. Okay? And so, for this AI to be valid, okay, let me explain how we would actually implement. Okay? So, first of all, you need at least 50 to 100 years to actually create this AI. Okay? And the reason why is that for this AI to be valid, you constantly need to be testing it. Okay? So, what I've been doing in this class is basically doing a self -AI. Right? Where I have an analytical model and I have a prediction. But guess what, guys? We won't know if my predictions are fully correct until, like, 50 years from now. Is that correct? Okay? Therefore, I can't validate my analysis until 50 years from now. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? And you need to be constantly doing this where you have to be constantly making these predictions and seeing if they're correct or not.", "word_count": 161, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-001", "start": 2571.87, "end": 2575.37, "text": "Okay. So, Sally asked the question,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-002", "start": 2575.65, "end": 2578.07, "text": "like, how do you construct this?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-003", "start": 2579.09, "end": 2579.57, "text": "This AI.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-004", "start": 2579.85, "end": 2584.35, "text": "Okay? 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Then what you have to do is you basically have to, and this is actually what's the most time -consuming, is you have to rewrite history. Okay? Do you understand? Because most of the history is actually not correct. Okay? So, what you have to do is you have to take this AI model and look back at history. And says, according to this AI model, what actually happened in the Peloponnesian War? What actually happened in World War I? What actually happened during the Tang Dynasty? Okay? So, you basically have to challenge the entire discipline of history and reconstruct a new history that you think is more factually correct based on this AI. Okay? So, you have to be doing these two things at once. Okay? 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So, you basically have to challenge the entire discipline of history", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-018", "start": 2688.12, "end": 2692.56, "text": "and reconstruct a new history that you think is more factually correct", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-019", "start": 2692.56, "end": 2694.14, "text": "based on this AI.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-020", "start": 2694.99, "end": 2697.75, "text": "Okay? So, you have to be doing these two things at once.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-021", "start": 2698.97, "end": 2700.67, "text": "Okay? 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Because you actually need mathematicians and computer programmers and historians to collaborate together to build this AI. Right? Okay? So, I can tell you the... How I would analyze the issue. But then a mathematician has to turn this into a mathematical equation or a model. Okay? Because computers only recognize data and numbers. Okay? They don't recognize ideas. I can't talk to a computer. I have to give a computer a number or a equation or a model. Okay? For it to calculate on. Okay? Does it make sense? All right? So, it's not an easy project. Okay? But the argument is that if this project actually works, it would change the fate of humanity forever. Because if there's", "word_count": 157, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-001", "start": 2701.21, "end": 2707.06, "text": "But also going back to throughout history and seeing how history can", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-002", "start": 2707.06, "end": 2711.24, "text": "be revamped or changed so that it's more accurate.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-003", "start": 2711.44, "end": 2712.08, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-004", "start": 2712.48, "end": 2714.28, "text": "Okay? That's a project.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-005", "start": 2714.52, "end": 2717.3, "text": "But now, but then there's the technology.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-006", "start": 2717.64, "end": 2724.04, "text": "Because you actually need mathematicians and computer programmers and historians to collaborate", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-007", "start": 2724.04, "end": 2725.6, "text": "together to build this AI.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-008", "start": 2725.76, "end": 2727.56, "text": "Right? Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-009", "start": 2727.68, "end": 2730.28, "text": "So, I can tell you the...", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-010", "start": 2731.46, "end": 2733.18, "text": "How I would analyze the issue.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-011", "start": 2733.86, "end": 2737.08, "text": "But then a mathematician has to turn this into a mathematical equation", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-012", "start": 2737.08, "end": 2738.14, "text": "or a model.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-013", "start": 2738.28, "end": 2744.6, "text": "Okay? Because computers only recognize data and numbers.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-014", "start": 2744.78, "end": 2745.86, "text": "Okay? They don't recognize ideas.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-015", "start": 2746.1, "end": 2747.36, "text": "I can't talk to a computer.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-016", "start": 2747.52, "end": 2752.78, "text": "I have to give a computer a number or a equation or", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-017", "start": 2752.78, "end": 2753.2, "text": "a model.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-018", "start": 2753.24, "end": 2754.86, "text": "Okay? For it to calculate on.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-019", "start": 2756.2, "end": 2757.3, "text": "Okay? Does it make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-020", "start": 2758.91, "end": 2759.55, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-021", "start": 2759.65, "end": 2762.51, "text": "So, it's not an easy project.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-022", "start": 2763.07, "end": 2769.1, "text": "Okay? But the argument is that if this project actually works,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-023", "start": 2769.26, "end": 2771.64, "text": "it would change the fate of humanity forever.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-024", "start": 2772.1, "end": 2773.7, "text": "Because if there's", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "cb5257bf20d90ea69d9f323db60e23bc3341f19e8923d75cfedc735ebbf5d90d", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0036", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=2701s", "time_label": "45:01", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0037", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "start": 2773.7, "end": 2838.01, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "one thing that you notice in this class, it's like we tend to repeat the same mistakes. Right? The question is like, why do we do that? It's because the history that we have is complete bullshit. It just is. It's not true. It can't be true. Okay? There are things that we believe, which if you just think about it, can't be true. Okay? And we did that like last semester when we talked about the rise of Christianity. Right? You're telling me that this illiterate guy named Jesus was able to spread Christianity all by himself after he died? I don't believe that. Okay? I think a much easier explanation is that it became co -opted by the Roman Empire in order to control the Empire. Right? But if you would talk to a historian, they would say you're just wrong. Okay? So not only are you trying to predict the future, but you're trying to also correct the past, which is, I think, an even more difficult job.", "word_count": 171, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-001", "start": 2773.7, "end": 2775.24, "text": "one thing that you notice in this class,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-002", "start": 2775.58, "end": 2779.56, "text": "it's like we tend to repeat the same mistakes.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-003", "start": 2780.24, "end": 2782.16, "text": "Right? The question is like,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-004", "start": 2782.22, "end": 2782.88, "text": "why do we do that?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-005", "start": 2783.2, "end": 2789.14, "text": "It's because the history that we have is complete bullshit.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-006", "start": 2789.8, "end": 2790.74, "text": "It just is.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-007", "start": 2790.94, "end": 2791.82, "text": "It's not true.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-008", "start": 2791.9, "end": 2792.58, "text": "It can't be true.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-009", "start": 2793.73, "end": 2798.13, "text": "Okay? There are things that we believe,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-010", "start": 2798.41, "end": 2800.15, "text": "which if you just think about it,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-011", "start": 2800.27, "end": 2802.09, "text": "can't be true.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-012", "start": 2803.6, "end": 2806.12, "text": "Okay? And we did that like last semester when we talked about", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-013", "start": 2806.12, "end": 2806.9, "text": "the rise of Christianity.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-014", "start": 2807.16, "end": 2811.72, "text": "Right? You're telling me that this illiterate guy named Jesus was able", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-015", "start": 2811.72, "end": 2814.98, "text": "to spread Christianity all by himself after he died?", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-016", "start": 2815.24, "end": 2815.94, "text": "I don't believe that.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-017", "start": 2816.3, "end": 2820, "text": "Okay? I think a much easier explanation is that it became co", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-018", "start": 2820, "end": 2823.68, "text": "-opted by the Roman Empire in order to control the Empire.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-019", "start": 2824.08, "end": 2827.16, "text": "Right? But if you would talk to a historian,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-020", "start": 2827.42, "end": 2830.03, "text": "they would say you're just wrong.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-021", "start": 2830.53, "end": 2833.37, "text": "Okay? So not only are you trying to predict the future,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-022", "start": 2833.57, "end": 2835.11, "text": "but you're trying to also correct", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-023", "start": 2835.11, "end": 2836.49, "text": "the past, which is, I think,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-024", "start": 2836.53, "end": 2838.01, "text": "an even more difficult job.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "c2906b2d15293d0773a9506e28a4edcf99a7052679900aec41da0e03960baccf", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0037", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=2773s", "time_label": "46:13", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0038", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "start": 2839.14, "end": 2925.561, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Right? Any more questions? Yeah, Eric? Excuse me? Oh, so Eric asked a great question. Will this psychohistory model encounter edge cases? And the answer is, that's the best question. Okay? That's a great question. And the answer is, yes. What are edge cases? Okay? Do you guys know? What are edge cases in this model? What would be edge cases here in history? Okay. It's called great man theory. Okay? Great man theory. And this is a problem. Meaning, like, okay, we believe, we argue that these underlying historical forces control humanity. Right? But now and then, you have this great man coming out of nowhere, and he changes the course of human history forever. Example is, before we had Homer. Right? Then we had Dante. Then we had Plato, Jesus, Julius Caesar, Octavius, Putin today. Okay? We can't account for these people. Because by definition, they're beyond history.", "word_count": 150, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-001", "start": 2839.14, "end": 2840.78, "text": "Right? Any more questions?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-002", "start": 2841.1, "end": 2841.76, "text": "Yeah, Eric?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-003", "start": 2848.86, "end": 2849.36, "text": "Excuse me?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-004", "start": 2849.99, "end": 2852.13, "text": "Oh, so Eric asked a great question.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-005", "start": 2852.71, "end": 2855.85, "text": "Will this psychohistory model encounter edge cases?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-006", "start": 2855.93, "end": 2857.65, "text": "And the answer is, that's the best question.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-007", "start": 2857.69, "end": 2858.85, "text": "Okay? That's a great question.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-008", "start": 2858.95, "end": 2860.39, "text": "And the answer is, yes.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-009", "start": 2860.51, "end": 2861.37, "text": "What are edge cases?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-010", "start": 2862.37, "end": 2863.59, "text": "Okay? Do you guys know?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-011", "start": 2863.69, "end": 2865.87, "text": "What are edge cases in this model?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-012", "start": 2866.07, "end": 2873.9, "text": "What would be edge cases here in history?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-013", "start": 2875.35, "end": 2878.09, "text": "Okay. It's called great man theory.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-014", "start": 2878.25, "end": 2881.18, "text": "Okay? Great man theory.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-015", "start": 2882.3, "end": 2883.54, "text": "And this is a problem.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-016", "start": 2884.1, "end": 2886.9, "text": "Meaning, like, okay, we believe,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-017", "start": 2887.08, "end": 2894.94, "text": "we argue that these underlying historical forces control humanity.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-018", "start": 2895.26, "end": 2896.82, "text": "Right? But now and then,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-019", "start": 2896.92, "end": 2899.38, "text": "you have this great man coming out of nowhere,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-020", "start": 2899.58, "end": 2902.14, "text": "and he changes the course of human history forever.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-021", "start": 2903.22, "end": 2907.28, "text": "Example is, before we had Homer.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-022", "start": 2907.52, "end": 2909.84, "text": "Right? Then we had Dante.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-023", "start": 2910.93, "end": 2914.61, "text": "Then we had Plato, Jesus,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-024", "start": 2915.29, "end": 2918.95, "text": "Julius Caesar, Octavius, Putin today.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-025", "start": 2919.37, "end": 2921.93, "text": "Okay? We can't account for these people.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-026", "start": 2922.09, "end": 2925.03, "text": "Because by definition, they're beyond", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-027", "start": 2925.03, "end": 2925.561, "text": "history.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "e9d9fe4552b89b41c748b7397af345319138c3505834ac0550aeca7baa1a63ef", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0038", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=2839s", "time_label": "47:19", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0039", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "start": 2925.561, "end": 2995.22, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "They can step outside of history and control history. That's what great men are. So, how does your model account for that? Okay? And the answer is, you cannot. So, in foundation, okay, the solution, okay, but there is a solution to this. The solution is to create another organization. Okay? Remember, that type of history is an AI model. It's basically a computer. But, as Eric points out, you will always have a computer. You will always have edge cases. You will always have someone appear out of nowhere. And for whatever reason, he's able to manipulate events to control and direct history in his favor. So, what you do to solve this problem is you create another organization. Okay? And in, I think, Asimov's foundation, it's called the second foundation. Okay? And the idea of the second foundation is that there is a computer. There is the AI. Okay? But behind the AI are a team of", "word_count": 159, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-001", "start": 2925.561, "end": 2930.34, "text": "They can step outside of history and control history.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-002", "start": 2930.78, "end": 2931.7, "text": "That's what great men are.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-003", "start": 2932.68, "end": 2935.34, "text": "So, how does your model account for that?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-004", "start": 2936.03, "end": 2937.77, "text": "Okay? And the answer is,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-005", "start": 2937.79, "end": 2938.17, "text": "you cannot.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-006", "start": 2940.64, "end": 2944.4, "text": "So, in foundation, okay, the solution,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-007", "start": 2944.78, "end": 2945.94, "text": "okay, but there is a solution to this.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-008", "start": 2947.16, "end": 2951.3, "text": "The solution is to create another organization.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-009", "start": 2951.94, "end": 2954.12, "text": "Okay? Remember, that type of history is an AI model.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-010", "start": 2954.28, "end": 2955.26, "text": "It's basically a computer.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-011", "start": 2956.5, "end": 2958.34, "text": "But, as Eric points out,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-012", "start": 2958.5, "end": 2959.4, "text": "you will always have a computer.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-013", "start": 2959.4, "end": 2960.88, "text": "You will always have edge cases.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-014", "start": 2961.06, "end": 2963.78, "text": "You will always have someone appear out of nowhere.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-015", "start": 2964.08, "end": 2969.82, "text": "And for whatever reason, he's able to manipulate events to control and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-016", "start": 2969.82, "end": 2971, "text": "direct history in his favor.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-017", "start": 2972.07, "end": 2977.19, "text": "So, what you do to solve this problem is you create another", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-018", "start": 2977.19, "end": 2978.45, "text": "organization. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-019", "start": 2978.59, "end": 2980.85, "text": "And in, I think, Asimov's foundation,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-020", "start": 2981.05, "end": 2981.97, "text": "it's called the second foundation.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-021", "start": 2984.17, "end": 2989.74, "text": "Okay? And the idea of the second foundation is that there is", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-022", "start": 2989.74, "end": 2990.1, "text": "a computer.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-023", "start": 2990.1, "end": 2991, "text": "There is the AI.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-024", "start": 2991.18, "end": 2995.22, "text": "Okay? But behind the AI are a team of", "word_count": 9 } ], "text_sha256": "e2b1986f7e95e0ef6bcffde5babec45a23757afc75b7f86a394604078dd3dea1", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0039", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=2925s", "time_label": "48:45", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0040", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "start": 2995.25, "end": 3072.7, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "specialists who observe the AI and who observe history and who correct the AI for edge cases. Okay? Does that make sense? So, Putin appears and is like, okay, well, clearly, I'm not accounting for Putin. Well, then I change the equations in the AI to account for Putin. Okay? So, this team of experts, the second foundation, will correct the AI. All right? Now, what's interesting about the second foundation is that these people are telepaths. Okay? Telepaths. Meaning that they can read your mind. Not only can they read your mind, but they can troll your mind. Okay? So, and that's another really interesting thing about psychohistory. Like, okay, there's a promise that we can predict the future, but there's also a promise that, within our minds, there are some special abilities that we might have the potential for, but we never, ever fully attempted to achieve. Okay? Does that make sense? And is it possible in the future that telepaths will arise?", "word_count": 165, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-001", "start": 2995.25, "end": 3002.01, "text": "specialists who observe the AI and who observe history and who correct", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-002", "start": 3002.01, "end": 3003.99, "text": "the AI for edge cases.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-003", "start": 3004.25, "end": 3005.94, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-004", "start": 3006.38, "end": 3007.94, "text": "So, Putin appears and is like,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-005", "start": 3008.02, "end": 3010.54, "text": "okay, well, clearly, I'm not accounting for Putin.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-006", "start": 3010.76, "end": 3013.86, "text": "Well, then I change the equations in the AI to account for", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-007", "start": 3013.86, "end": 3014.56, "text": "Putin. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-008", "start": 3015, "end": 3016.58, "text": "So, this team of experts,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-009", "start": 3016.66, "end": 3018.92, "text": "the second foundation, will correct the AI.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-010", "start": 3018.92, "end": 3020.5, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-011", "start": 3020.54, "end": 3026.82, "text": "Now, what's interesting about the second foundation is that these people are", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-012", "start": 3026.82, "end": 3030.6, "text": "telepaths. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-013", "start": 3030.68, "end": 3034.22, "text": "Telepaths. Meaning that they can read your mind.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-014", "start": 3034.58, "end": 3036.12, "text": "Not only can they read your mind,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-015", "start": 3036.18, "end": 3037.48, "text": "but they can troll your mind.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-016", "start": 3037.87, "end": 3044.8, "text": "Okay? So, and that's another really interesting thing about psychohistory.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-017", "start": 3045.08, "end": 3050.07, "text": "Like, okay, there's a promise that we can predict the future,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-018", "start": 3050.31, "end": 3052.23, "text": "but there's also a promise that,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-019", "start": 3052.49, "end": 3058.31, "text": "within our minds, there are some special abilities that we might have", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-020", "start": 3058.31, "end": 3060.75, "text": "the potential for, but we never,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-021", "start": 3060.83, "end": 3064.13, "text": "ever fully attempted to achieve.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-022", "start": 3064.63, "end": 3067.14, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-023", "start": 3068.12, "end": 3070, "text": "And is it possible in the", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-024", "start": 3070, "end": 3072.7, "text": "future that telepaths will arise?", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "ff209ef4dac44ecfe8b7ed43b83bcbe75922fb18bde72c29ff89f773f62e48f3", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0040", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=2995s", "time_label": "49:55", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0041", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "start": 3073.12, "end": 3137.938, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "I think yes. And the answer is that you can make the argument that these edge cases that Eric refers to, these great men of history, they're actually telepaths. Okay? Does that make sense? They're actually telepaths. So, someone like Putin. Why is Putin able to do what he does? And you can make the argument, like, he has almost some telepathic abilities. Okay? He can read other people's minds, and he can troll other people's minds. How else can you explain that someone who does not come from a special background, right? He's not of the Russian elite. Right? But he's able to amass so much power all by himself in only a few decades so that today, he's basically the emperor of Russia. And all of Russia heeds his command. Russia just moves the way that he wants it to move. Okay? So, you can make the argument that Putin is almost a telepath.", "word_count": 156, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-001", "start": 3073.12, "end": 3073.94, "text": "I think yes.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-002", "start": 3074.08, "end": 3077.6, "text": "And the answer is that you can make the argument that these", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-003", "start": 3078.24, "end": 3080.12, "text": "edge cases that Eric refers to,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-004", "start": 3080.14, "end": 3080.98, "text": "these great men of history,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-005", "start": 3081.04, "end": 3083.26, "text": "they're actually telepaths.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-006", "start": 3083.26, "end": 3085.46, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-007", "start": 3085.68, "end": 3086.8, "text": "They're actually telepaths.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-008", "start": 3086.8, "end": 3087.76, "text": "So, someone like Putin.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-009", "start": 3088.24, "end": 3091.12, "text": "Why is Putin able to do what he does?", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-010", "start": 3091.64, "end": 3092.78, "text": "And you can make the argument,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-011", "start": 3092.88, "end": 3097.42, "text": "like, he has almost some telepathic abilities.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-012", "start": 3097.82, "end": 3100.36, "text": "Okay? He can read other people's minds,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-013", "start": 3100.5, "end": 3102.04, "text": "and he can troll other people's minds.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-014", "start": 3102.26, "end": 3108.35, "text": "How else can you explain that someone who does not come from", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-015", "start": 3108.35, "end": 3110.03, "text": "a special background, right?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-016", "start": 3110.07, "end": 3111.65, "text": "He's not of the Russian elite.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-017", "start": 3112.46, "end": 3118.49, "text": "Right? But he's able to amass so much power all by himself", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-018", "start": 3118.49, "end": 3122.48, "text": "in only a few decades so that today,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-019", "start": 3122.7, "end": 3125.18, "text": "he's basically the emperor of Russia.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-020", "start": 3125.4, "end": 3129, "text": "And all of Russia heeds his command.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-021", "start": 3129.52, "end": 3131.92, "text": "Russia just moves the way that he wants it to move.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-022", "start": 3132.04, "end": 3137.42, "text": "Okay? So, you can make the argument that Putin is almost a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-023", "start": 3137.42, "end": 3137.938, "text": "telepath.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "26dbe426741df24f226f57ad2550386531784379e7ef386e0b68a2825e6c3ddb", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0041", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=3073s", "time_label": "51:13", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0042", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "start": 3137.938, "end": 3219.92, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And is it possible that in the future we'll have more telepaths? And we can, over time, harness the power of these telepaths to create the second foundation and to control psychohistory? Possibly. Right? Okay? Because, like, how else would we explain great men? Okay? You look at someone like Homer and Dante. Right? The only explanation that you can have for Homer and Dante is they were, they had God -given gifts. Okay? Or maybe God was speaking to them. Or maybe they were just speaking for God. Right? That's the only explanation that you can have for Homer and Dante because they so clearly stepped out of history and directed history. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? But thanks for the question, Eric. Okay? So, edge cases are great men who appear now and then. And you cannot ever predict these people. Okay? Any more questions? Okay. This... Yeah? Yes? Yes, Celine? Oh, that's a great question.", "word_count": 159, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-001", "start": 3137.938, "end": 3143.64, "text": "And is it possible that in the future we'll have more", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-002", "start": 3143.64, "end": 3147.23, "text": "telepaths? And we can, over time,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-003", "start": 3147.29, "end": 3154.38, "text": "harness the power of these telepaths to create the second foundation and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-004", "start": 3154.38, "end": 3156.42, "text": "to control psychohistory?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-005", "start": 3157.27, "end": 3158.45, "text": "Possibly. Right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-006", "start": 3159.76, "end": 3162.9, "text": "Okay? Because, like, how else would we explain great men?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-007", "start": 3163.08, "end": 3167.58, "text": "Okay? You look at someone like Homer and Dante.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-008", "start": 3167.92, "end": 3172.34, "text": "Right? The only explanation that you can have for Homer and Dante", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-009", "start": 3172.34, "end": 3177.44, "text": "is they were, they had God -given gifts.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-010", "start": 3177.86, "end": 3179.52, "text": "Okay? Or maybe God was speaking to them.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-011", "start": 3179.6, "end": 3181.54, "text": "Or maybe they were just speaking for God.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-012", "start": 3182, "end": 3185.76, "text": "Right? That's the only explanation that you can have for Homer and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-013", "start": 3185.76, "end": 3190.72, "text": "Dante because they so clearly stepped out of history and directed history.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-014", "start": 3191.16, "end": 3192.04, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-015", "start": 3193.23, "end": 3196.47, "text": "Okay? But thanks for the question,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-016", "start": 3196.53, "end": 3196.93, "text": "Eric. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-017", "start": 3196.99, "end": 3200.59, "text": "So, edge cases are great men who appear now and then.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-018", "start": 3200.83, "end": 3203.31, "text": "And you cannot ever predict these people.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-019", "start": 3204.07, "end": 3206.69, "text": "Okay? Any more questions?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-020", "start": 3209.19, "end": 3211.61, "text": "Okay. This...", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-021", "start": 3212.49, "end": 3213.37, "text": "Yeah? Yes?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-022", "start": 3213.39, "end": 3213.71, "text": "Yes, Celine?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-023", "start": 3218.74, "end": 3219.92, "text": "Oh, that's a great question.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "b52373acb814284d4cf240b858bb36dd3da6b30c02e8f6de528a3147a1a900a1", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0042", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=3137s", "time_label": "52:17", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0043", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "start": 3220.04, "end": 3300.8, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay. Okay. How do you model love, learn, and create? Okay? And the answer is that there has to be a certain amount of autonomy or agency in the lives of people. Does that make sense? What we call freedom and liberty. Because if you have freedom and liberty, then you're able to do what you want. And what you want to do is love, create, and grow. Okay? Does that make sense? So you need to model agency and freedom into the structure. Okay? The second thing is social interaction. Okay? In other words, the more we're able to interact with each other, the more we're willing to love, create, and grow. Because these powers come from others. Right? You can't love yourself. You have to love someone else. You can't create by yourself. You have to create in a group. Okay? You can't learn by yourself. You have to learn from others. Okay? So you also have to model in as much group interaction as possible.", "word_count": 168, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-001", "start": 3220.04, "end": 3222.26, "text": "Okay. Okay.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-002", "start": 3223.43, "end": 3225.97, "text": "How do you model love,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-003", "start": 3226.8, "end": 3228.68, "text": "learn, and create?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-004", "start": 3228.74, "end": 3234.68, "text": "Okay? And the answer is that there has to be a certain", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-005", "start": 3234.68, "end": 3243.22, "text": "amount of autonomy or agency in the lives of people.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-006", "start": 3243.4, "end": 3244.06, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-007", "start": 3244.24, "end": 3245.86, "text": "What we call freedom and liberty.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-008", "start": 3245.86, "end": 3248.32, "text": "Because if you have freedom and liberty,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-009", "start": 3248.58, "end": 3250.98, "text": "then you're able to do what you want.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-010", "start": 3251.32, "end": 3254.02, "text": "And what you want to do is love,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-011", "start": 3254.28, "end": 3257.84, "text": "create, and grow.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-012", "start": 3258.14, "end": 3258.7, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-013", "start": 3258.94, "end": 3265.08, "text": "So you need to model agency and freedom into the structure.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-014", "start": 3265.24, "end": 3270.83, "text": "Okay? The second thing is social interaction.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-015", "start": 3272.64, "end": 3277.54, "text": "Okay? In other words, the more we're able to interact with each", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-016", "start": 3277.54, "end": 3282.09, "text": "other, the more we're willing to love,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-017", "start": 3282.27, "end": 3284.29, "text": "create, and grow.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-018", "start": 3284.51, "end": 3286.39, "text": "Because these powers come from others.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-019", "start": 3286.57, "end": 3287.97, "text": "Right? You can't love yourself.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-020", "start": 3288.23, "end": 3289.33, "text": "You have to love someone else.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-021", "start": 3289.86, "end": 3291.32, "text": "You can't create by yourself.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-022", "start": 3291.5, "end": 3292.4, "text": "You have to create in a group.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-023", "start": 3292.52, "end": 3294.22, "text": "Okay? You can't learn by yourself.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-024", "start": 3294.32, "end": 3295.52, "text": "You have to learn from others.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-025", "start": 3296.04, "end": 3297.1, "text": "Okay? So you also have to", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-026", "start": 3297.1, "end": 3300.8, "text": "model in as much group interaction as possible.", "word_count": 8 } ], "text_sha256": "cf15840d2b82cc8dc9a190cdbe7eb85f14335b3234d76925a1cdf38fd8c5edfd", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0043", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=3220s", "time_label": "53:40", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0044", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "start": 3301.68, "end": 3369.87, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? And the last thing is you also have to model in the idea of compassion. Okay? So the idea here is that if I all put you on an island together. Okay? And you must survive. Well, you will become compassionate with each other because that's the only way to survive. Right? But if I put you guys into a bank. And I say to you that if you make a million dollars. And I will give you two million dollars. Whoever makes the most money, I will give a Ferrari to. Guess what, guys? You will all hate each other. You will all want to kill each other. Okay? You understand? So this model also has to factor in compassion. How compassionate is this society? Okay? Because if you have compassion, then people are willing to work together. If people are willing to work together, then people will have the greater capacity to love, create, and grow.", "word_count": 159, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-001", "start": 3301.68, "end": 3306.46, "text": "Okay? And the last thing is you also have to model in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-002", "start": 3306.46, "end": 3307.72, "text": "the idea of compassion.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-003", "start": 3309.89, "end": 3319.42, "text": "Okay? So the idea here is that if I all put you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-004", "start": 3319.42, "end": 3321.54, "text": "on an island together.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-005", "start": 3322.5, "end": 3324.04, "text": "Okay? And you must survive.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-006", "start": 3324.94, "end": 3329.32, "text": "Well, you will become compassionate with each other because that's the only", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-007", "start": 3329.32, "end": 3329.78, "text": "way to survive.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-008", "start": 3330.06, "end": 3335.19, "text": "Right? But if I put you guys into a bank.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-009", "start": 3335.19, "end": 3340.37, "text": "And I say to you that if you make a million dollars.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-010", "start": 3340.41, "end": 3341.83, "text": "And I will give you two million dollars.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-011", "start": 3341.91, "end": 3343.09, "text": "Whoever makes the most money,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-012", "start": 3343.23, "end": 3344.55, "text": "I will give a Ferrari to.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-013", "start": 3344.99, "end": 3345.83, "text": "Guess what, guys?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-014", "start": 3346.15, "end": 3348.65, "text": "You will all hate each other.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-015", "start": 3348.83, "end": 3350.35, "text": "You will all want to kill each other.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-016", "start": 3350.45, "end": 3351.55, "text": "Okay? You understand?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-017", "start": 3352.05, "end": 3356.79, "text": "So this model also has to factor in compassion.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-018", "start": 3357.15, "end": 3359.35, "text": "How compassionate is this society?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-019", "start": 3360.51, "end": 3362.63, "text": "Okay? Because if you have compassion,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-020", "start": 3362.93, "end": 3364.93, "text": "then people are willing to work together.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-021", "start": 3364.93, "end": 3366.47, "text": "If people are willing to work together,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-022", "start": 3366.61, "end": 3367.73, "text": "then people will have the", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-023", "start": 3367.73, "end": 3369.35, "text": "greater capacity to love, create,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-024", "start": 3369.47, "end": 3369.87, "text": "and grow.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "3036af285e43f9aec64dcdb192c00c544ac6b22201642cc35a9108c091bc9836", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0044", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=3301s", "time_label": "55:01", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0045", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "start": 3370.17, "end": 3485.1, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? Does that make sense? Actually, guys, we have all these theories. It's just like no one is turning this into a mathematical model. Okay? For society. Any more questions? Yeah? Yeah. So Eric asked the question, is it possible to completely understand human behavior and motivation? And there are two different ways of looking at the issue. The first way is to use a social science approach. Okay? So you look at economics, psychology, anthropology, sociology. Right? What are they trying to do? They're trying to figure out mathematically what drives us. Okay? You understand? But there's another approach. It's called the literature approach. Which is that we can actually quantify or explain human behavior. Okay? But there are truths that can be expressed in literature. Okay? Does that make sense? So think about the very first book we read, the Iliad. Right? Where Achilles has killed Hector and Prime wants the body back.", "word_count": 155, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-001", "start": 3370.17, "end": 3371.69, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-002", "start": 3374.23, "end": 3376.19, "text": "Actually, guys, we have all these theories.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-003", "start": 3376.89, "end": 3379.05, "text": "It's just like no one is turning this into a mathematical model.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-004", "start": 3379.37, "end": 3380.81, "text": "Okay? For society.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-005", "start": 3382.32, "end": 3383.2, "text": "Any more questions?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-006", "start": 3385.35, "end": 3410.53, "text": "Yeah? Yeah.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-007", "start": 3413.22, "end": 3414.92, "text": "So Eric asked the question,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-008", "start": 3415.26, "end": 3421.9, "text": "is it possible to completely understand human behavior and motivation?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-009", "start": 3424.32, "end": 3428.92, "text": "And there are two different ways of looking at the issue.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-010", "start": 3430.01, "end": 3434.83, "text": "The first way is to use a social science approach.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-011", "start": 3435.01, "end": 3436.29, "text": "Okay? So you look at economics,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-012", "start": 3436.51, "end": 3438.21, "text": "psychology, anthropology, sociology.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-013", "start": 3439.27, "end": 3441.01, "text": "Right? What are they trying to do?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-014", "start": 3441.13, "end": 3447.88, "text": "They're trying to figure out mathematically what drives us.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-015", "start": 3447.94, "end": 3449.73, "text": "Okay? You understand?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-016", "start": 3450.23, "end": 3451.35, "text": "But there's another approach.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-017", "start": 3451.61, "end": 3453.35, "text": "It's called the literature approach.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-018", "start": 3454.15, "end": 3463.09, "text": "Which is that we can actually quantify or explain human behavior.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-019", "start": 3463.75, "end": 3469.69, "text": "Okay? But there are truths that can be expressed in literature.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-020", "start": 3471.6, "end": 3473.54, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-021", "start": 3473.8, "end": 3477.13, "text": "So think about the very first book we read,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-022", "start": 3477.43, "end": 3477.99, "text": "the Iliad.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-023", "start": 3478.59, "end": 3484.62, "text": "Right? Where Achilles has killed Hector and Prime wants the", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-024", "start": 3484.62, "end": 3485.1, "text": "body back.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "151caf607d563718cb2d15ba38cc83408d6527be8117c04ae99a80047d678db9", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0045", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=3370s", "time_label": "56:10", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0046", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "start": 3485.28, "end": 3573.58, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "So Prime sneaks into Achilles' tent. And kisses his hand. Right? That moment. You can never mathematically express it. You can only write about it. But think about how much truth and power is in that one scene. Okay? Does that make sense, Eric? Okay? So again, I think someone like Homer and Dante, their mission is to express to us in the most beautiful way. The human truths. Okay? Like what drives us. And Dante is very explicit. He says that what drives us is love and the willingness to imagine. Okay? That's who we are. If we love, we'll be more human. If we imagine, we'll be more human. Okay? And that's really the argument I make as well. All right? And that has to be the underlying truth of whatever AI model you create. Okay? All right? Any more questions? Yeah? Okay. So Celine asked a great question. Okay. Well, if it says that we want to love, create, and grow, then why do we end up destroying ourselves?", "word_count": 172, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-001", "start": 3485.28, "end": 3487.44, "text": "So Prime sneaks into Achilles' tent.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-002", "start": 3487.44, "end": 3488.74, "text": "And kisses his hand.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-003", "start": 3489.06, "end": 3490.78, "text": "Right? That moment.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-004", "start": 3491.3, "end": 3494.14, "text": "You can never mathematically express it.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-005", "start": 3494.22, "end": 3495.72, "text": "You can only write about it.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-006", "start": 3496.1, "end": 3500.65, "text": "But think about how much truth and power is in that one", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-007", "start": 3500.65, "end": 3502.51, "text": "scene. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-008", "start": 3502.77, "end": 3506.29, "text": "Does that make sense, Eric?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-009", "start": 3506.59, "end": 3512.37, "text": "Okay? So again, I think someone like Homer and Dante,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-010", "start": 3513.39, "end": 3519.21, "text": "their mission is to express to us in the most beautiful way.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-011", "start": 3519.21, "end": 3520.73, "text": "The human truths.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-012", "start": 3521.07, "end": 3523.01, "text": "Okay? Like what drives us.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-013", "start": 3523.31, "end": 3524.75, "text": "And Dante is very explicit.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-014", "start": 3524.91, "end": 3529.79, "text": "He says that what drives us is love and the willingness to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-015", "start": 3529.79, "end": 3530.67, "text": "imagine. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-016", "start": 3530.79, "end": 3531.55, "text": "That's who we are.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-017", "start": 3531.67, "end": 3533.49, "text": "If we love, we'll be more human.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-018", "start": 3533.61, "end": 3535.31, "text": "If we imagine, we'll be more human.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-019", "start": 3535.43, "end": 3538.55, "text": "Okay? And that's really the argument I make as well.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-020", "start": 3538.81, "end": 3539.41, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-021", "start": 3539.73, "end": 3545.42, "text": "And that has to be the underlying truth of whatever AI model", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-022", "start": 3545.42, "end": 3547.26, "text": "you create.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-023", "start": 3547.48, "end": 3549.6, "text": "Okay? All right?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-024", "start": 3549.6, "end": 3551.42, "text": "Any more questions?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-025", "start": 3554.42, "end": 3564.39, "text": "Yeah? Okay.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-026", "start": 3564.49, "end": 3566.47, "text": "So Celine asked a great question.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-027", "start": 3566.59, "end": 3569.9, "text": "Okay. Well, if it says that we", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-028", "start": 3569.9, "end": 3571.54, "text": "want to love, create, and grow,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-029", "start": 3571.82, "end": 3573.58, "text": "then why do we end up destroying ourselves?", "word_count": 8 } ], "text_sha256": "e73fff1f6db6f92740bb2034fb164710419358c81a3bc81ca90413be72dfd8fa", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0046", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=3485s", "time_label": "58:05", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0047", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "start": 3574.12, "end": 3646.028, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And the answer is that love and hate are one force. You understand? If I can't love you, I'm going to hate you. You understand? Okay? Guess what, guys? Creation and destruction. Destruction is one force as well. If I can't create, then I want to destroy. Because my need for creation can't be satisfied. Does that make sense? So a society that nurtures our willingness to love and create and grow, like the Greeks, will flourish. Okay? But eventually, you reach a point where the elite have amassed power. They've centralized and consolidated power. And so they want to turn everyone else into basically a slave. When you're a slave, you can't love. You can't create. You can't learn. You can't grow. Therefore, you rebel. And you destroy the society. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? But again, the fundamental human need are these three things.", "word_count": 147, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-001", "start": 3574.12, "end": 3581.88, "text": "And the answer is that love and hate are one force.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-002", "start": 3582.12, "end": 3582.78, "text": "You understand?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-003", "start": 3583.7, "end": 3585.28, "text": "If I can't love you,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-004", "start": 3585.4, "end": 3586.12, "text": "I'm going to hate you.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-005", "start": 3586.51, "end": 3587.25, "text": "You understand?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-006", "start": 3587.51, "end": 3588.91, "text": "Okay? Guess what, guys?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-007", "start": 3589.41, "end": 3590.59, "text": "Creation and destruction.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-008", "start": 3590.59, "end": 3593.41, "text": "Destruction is one force as well.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-009", "start": 3593.59, "end": 3595.87, "text": "If I can't create, then I want to destroy.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-010", "start": 3596.95, "end": 3600.35, "text": "Because my need for creation can't be satisfied.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-011", "start": 3600.85, "end": 3601.79, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-012", "start": 3602.52, "end": 3608.98, "text": "So a society that nurtures our willingness to love and create and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-013", "start": 3608.98, "end": 3612.08, "text": "grow, like the Greeks, will flourish.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-014", "start": 3612.42, "end": 3619.3, "text": "Okay? But eventually, you reach a point where the elite have amassed", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-015", "start": 3619.3, "end": 3622.52, "text": "power. They've centralized and consolidated power.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-016", "start": 3623.08, "end": 3630.06, "text": "And so they want to turn everyone else into basically a slave.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-017", "start": 3630.67, "end": 3632.93, "text": "When you're a slave, you can't love.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-018", "start": 3633.17, "end": 3634.03, "text": "You can't create.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-019", "start": 3634.11, "end": 3634.65, "text": "You can't learn.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-020", "start": 3634.77, "end": 3635.23, "text": "You can't grow.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-021", "start": 3635.63, "end": 3636.59, "text": "Therefore, you rebel.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-022", "start": 3636.79, "end": 3637.73, "text": "And you destroy the society.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-023", "start": 3638.47, "end": 3639.33, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-024", "start": 3639.88, "end": 3645.58, "text": "Okay? But again, the fundamental human need are these three", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0047-chunk-025", "start": 3645.58, "end": 3646.028, "text": "things.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "d6fe3c94a229f7cd47e64428b8c800ebeac316e1686118093bf3ecbf46e11238", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0047", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=3574s", "time_label": "59:34", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0048", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "start": 3646.028, "end": 3740.08, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "But within each of these things is another force. And if love can't be satisfied. Love can't express itself. Then hate will express itself. Does that make sense? Okay? All right. Any more questions? Yeah? So Sally asked a great question. Which is like, who would control this AI? And how can we ensure that this AI is not exploited by the elite in order to justify their corruption and cruelty? Okay? And the answer has to be, you know, the elite. Really, the second foundation. Okay? Basically, a group of scholars, academics, experts who dedicate themselves to this AI. Okay? And this AI, the other thing is that it has to be open and transparent. That's why it's so hard to build. Right? It has to be open and transparent. Okay? If it's open and transparent, then everyone has to agree that this AI is going to be used for good. Okay? Meaning that what this AI does is, you're going to ask it different questions.", "word_count": 167, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-001", "start": 3646.028, "end": 3650.06, "text": "But within each of these things is another force.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-002", "start": 3650.86, "end": 3652.18, "text": "And if love can't be satisfied.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-003", "start": 3652.18, "end": 3652.64, "text": "Love can't express itself.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-004", "start": 3652.74, "end": 3654.2, "text": "Then hate will express itself.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-005", "start": 3654.74, "end": 3655.88, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-006", "start": 3656.99, "end": 3660.62, "text": "Okay? All right.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-007", "start": 3660.74, "end": 3661.72, "text": "Any more questions?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-008", "start": 3663.5, "end": 3685.92, "text": "Yeah? So Sally asked a great question.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-009", "start": 3686, "end": 3689.62, "text": "Which is like, who would control this AI?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-010", "start": 3690.89, "end": 3696.37, "text": "And how can we ensure that this AI is not exploited by", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-011", "start": 3696.95, "end": 3700.59, "text": "the elite in order to justify their corruption and cruelty?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-012", "start": 3700.95, "end": 3704.85, "text": "Okay? And the answer has to be,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-013", "start": 3704.85, "end": 3706.23, "text": "you know, the elite.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-014", "start": 3706.25, "end": 3707.99, "text": "Really, the second foundation.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-015", "start": 3708.19, "end": 3711.91, "text": "Okay? Basically, a group of scholars,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-016", "start": 3712.07, "end": 3717.35, "text": "academics, experts who dedicate themselves to this AI.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-017", "start": 3717.57, "end": 3720.86, "text": "Okay? And this AI, the other thing is that it has to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-018", "start": 3720.86, "end": 3722.14, "text": "be open and transparent.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-019", "start": 3722.76, "end": 3724.5, "text": "That's why it's so hard to build.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-020", "start": 3725.7, "end": 3729.1, "text": "Right? It has to be open and transparent.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-021", "start": 3730.14, "end": 3732.46, "text": "Okay? If it's open and transparent,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-022", "start": 3732.66, "end": 3734.74, "text": "then everyone has to agree that this AI is going to be", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-023", "start": 3734.74, "end": 3735.42, "text": "used for good.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0048-chunk-024", "start": 3735.42, "end": 3737.84, "text": "Okay? 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It can only be used to oppress the elite. It can only be used to oppress others. Okay? But the point of this AI is that it gives us a platform as humans to agree on certain actions that we must stick together. Okay? Does that make sense? So, for example, we can all agree that climate change is bad. We can all agree that war is bad. Right? But this AI will actually give us solutions to these problems. Because this AI can map out the future for us. And AI will say, well, listen, if the United States intervenes in Ukraine, then this will happen.", "word_count": 161, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-001", "start": 3741.21, "end": 3742.73, "text": "And it will give you different scenarios.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-002", "start": 3743.07, "end": 3746.51, "text": "And we can all agree on which scenario we want.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-003", "start": 3746.95, "end": 3749.77, "text": "And therefore, we can agree on what action to take.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-004", "start": 3749.97, "end": 3754.63, "text": "Okay? So, this AI has to be part of a democratic system", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-005", "start": 3754.63, "end": 3756.21, "text": "where everyone is involved.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-006", "start": 3757, "end": 3759.2, "text": "Otherwise, as Sally points out,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-007", "start": 3759.42, "end": 3761.44, "text": "it can only be abused.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-008", "start": 3761.9, "end": 3765.98, "text": "Okay? It can only be used to oppress the elite.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-009", "start": 3766, "end": 3767.38, "text": "It can only be used to oppress others.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-010", "start": 3768.53, "end": 3774.63, "text": "Okay? But the point of this AI is that it gives us", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-011", "start": 3774.63, "end": 3780.65, "text": "a platform as humans to agree on certain actions that we must", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-012", "start": 3780.65, "end": 3781.27, "text": "stick together.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-013", "start": 3782.16, "end": 3784.52, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-014", "start": 3784.88, "end": 3789.52, "text": "So, for example, we can all agree that climate change is bad.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-015", "start": 3789.72, "end": 3791.7, "text": "We can all agree that war is bad.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-016", "start": 3791.82, "end": 3796.32, "text": "Right? But this AI will actually give us solutions to these problems.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-017", "start": 3796.32, "end": 3799.52, "text": "Because this AI can map out the future for us.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-018", "start": 3799.76, "end": 3801.34, "text": "And AI will say, well,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-019", "start": 3801.46, "end": 3804.48, "text": "listen, if the", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-020", "start": 3804.48, "end": 3805.88, "text": "United States intervenes in Ukraine,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0049-chunk-021", "start": 3806.1, "end": 3807.46, "text": "then this will happen.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "b740d2628cc8faf38ee4b703d7d567c03d1ab57cbfd763423778d11eee6fe146", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0049", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=3741s", "time_label": "1:02:21", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0050", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "start": 3807.66, "end": 3875.45, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Right? The United States attacks Iran, then this will happen. And that becomes a very powerful argument for correct and proper behavior. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. But again, guys, this is just conjecture. Okay? And I've already said this. It's going to take at least 50 to 100 years to build this AI. And you will be up against tremendous opposition. Right? Historians aren't going to like this. The elite aren't going to like this. Right? But at the same time, we have to remember, like, guess what? Homer, I'm pretty sure if Homer were living in a centralized society, the elite would be opposed to him. Okay? He was making fun of very famous Greeks, like Achilles and Menelaus and Agamemnon. Right? He was making fun of these guys. Well, guess what? When Homer was writing, society had collapsed. Right? When Dante was writing, society had collapsed.", "word_count": 151, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-001", "start": 3807.66, "end": 3809.46, "text": "Right? The United States attacks Iran,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-002", "start": 3809.56, "end": 3810.34, "text": "then this will happen.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-003", "start": 3810.81, "end": 3816.63, "text": "And that becomes a very powerful argument for correct and proper behavior.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-004", "start": 3817.67, "end": 3819.65, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-005", "start": 3820.03, "end": 3820.69, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-006", "start": 3820.73, "end": 3824.39, "text": "But again, guys, this is just conjecture.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-007", "start": 3824.49, "end": 3826.17, "text": "Okay? And I've already said this.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-008", "start": 3826.17, "end": 3829.99, "text": "It's going to take at least 50 to 100 years to build", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-009", "start": 3829.99, "end": 3830.37, "text": "this AI.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-010", "start": 3830.85, "end": 3833.97, "text": "And you will be up against tremendous opposition.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-011", "start": 3834.55, "end": 3838.45, "text": "Right? Historians aren't going to like this.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-012", "start": 3838.65, "end": 3840.39, "text": "The elite aren't going to like this.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-013", "start": 3841.39, "end": 3846.72, "text": "Right? But at the same time,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-014", "start": 3846.8, "end": 3847.66, "text": "we have to remember, like,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-015", "start": 3847.76, "end": 3848.8, "text": "guess what?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-016", "start": 3850.59, "end": 3857.57, "text": "Homer, I'm pretty sure if Homer were living in a centralized society,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-017", "start": 3858.17, "end": 3860.25, "text": "the elite would be opposed to him.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-018", "start": 3860.29, "end": 3864.43, "text": "Okay? He was making fun of very famous Greeks,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-019", "start": 3864.53, "end": 3866.49, "text": "like Achilles and Menelaus and Agamemnon.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-020", "start": 3866.71, "end": 3867.93, "text": "Right? He was making fun of these guys.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-021", "start": 3868.73, "end": 3869.65, "text": "Well, guess what?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-022", "start": 3869.89, "end": 3871.95, "text": "When Homer was writing, society had collapsed.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-023", "start": 3872.37, "end": 3874.61, "text": "Right? When Dante was writing,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0050-chunk-024", "start": 3874.75, "end": 3875.45, "text": "society had collapsed.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "b8e5224ec636ca9c037d897cc02850771849933d3b7327224ec1efc9d9f09ad9", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0050", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=3807s", "time_label": "1:03:27", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0051", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "start": 3877.93, "end": 3949.789, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "So, if it is true, if my predictions are correct and society is approaching collapse, then there should be a lot of space and leeway and flexibility to create this AI. Okay? Okay. Any more questions? Yeah? That's a great question. So, won't different people, different nations want different outcomes? And the answer is yeah. Like, if you are alive today, if you're America, you want America to be a hegemon. If you're Putin, you want Russia to be the hegemon. If you're China, you want China to be the hegemon. Right? You want different outcomes. So, my argument is that the structure of society today is not sustainable. Everything is going to collapse. And we are going to transition from a population of about 8 billion people to a population of 1 billion people. And when you have 1 billion people and, like, there's no place to grow crops and pollution is everywhere and war is everywhere, guess what happens?", "word_count": 161, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-001", "start": 3877.93, "end": 3879.53, "text": "So, if it is true,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-002", "start": 3879.83, "end": 3883.8, "text": "if my predictions are correct and society is approaching collapse,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-003", "start": 3884.16, "end": 3887.54, "text": "then there should be a lot of space and leeway and flexibility", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-004", "start": 3887.54, "end": 3888.78, "text": "to create this AI.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-005", "start": 3889.06, "end": 3893.23, "text": "Okay? Okay.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-006", "start": 3893.41, "end": 3894.33, "text": "Any more questions?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-007", "start": 3895.86, "end": 3902.84, "text": "Yeah? That's a great question.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-008", "start": 3905.2, "end": 3908.06, "text": "So, won't different people, different nations want different outcomes?", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-009", "start": 3908.4, "end": 3909.12, "text": "And the answer is yeah.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-010", "start": 3909.3, "end": 3912.46, "text": "Like, if you are alive today,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-011", "start": 3912.6, "end": 3914.2, "text": "if you're America, you want America to be a hegemon.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-012", "start": 3914.42, "end": 3916.38, "text": "If you're Putin, you want Russia to be the hegemon.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-013", "start": 3916.68, "end": 3918.54, "text": "If you're China, you want China to be the hegemon.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-014", "start": 3918.68, "end": 3919.56, "text": "Right? You want different outcomes.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-015", "start": 3920.94, "end": 3926.54, "text": "So, my argument is that the structure of society today is not", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-016", "start": 3926.54, "end": 3928.1, "text": "sustainable. Everything is going to collapse.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-017", "start": 3928.1, "end": 3933.84, "text": "And we are going to transition from a population of about 8", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-018", "start": 3933.84, "end": 3936.42, "text": "billion people to a population of 1 billion people.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-019", "start": 3936.94, "end": 3939.84, "text": "And when you have 1 billion people and,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-020", "start": 3940, "end": 3947.48, "text": "like, there's no place to grow crops and pollution is everywhere and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-021", "start": 3947.48, "end": 3949.2, "text": "war is everywhere, guess what", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0051-chunk-022", "start": 3949.2, "end": 3949.789, "text": "happens?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "cc00221054aa8dd4ae1729d6289234ce2d194b99f3a7c8ff3c0684d45b8abaa1", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0051", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=3877s", "time_label": "1:04:37", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0052", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "start": 3949.789, "end": 4029.82, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Humans are united in their goals, which is basically how do we create a better civilization. Okay? Does that make sense? When all society has collapsed, everyone's like, how do we recreate civilization? That's the goal. But in a more progressive, more democratic, and more prosperous way. Okay? That's what I'm betting on. But I don't know. Okay? And, again, if everyone's fighting over the AI, this AI cannot be created. Okay? Because different people will want this AI to be biased in a different way. This AI can only work if it steps outside of history and steps outside of human interests. Okay? If it's speaking for all of humanity rather than one nation or one group of people. Okay? Any more questions? Is this clear to you guys? All right. So, all right. So, this is the very end. And I'll spend, like, five more minutes to talk about this year. Okay? So, this is the very first time I've taught both courses.", "word_count": 165, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-001", "start": 3949.789, "end": 3953.32, "text": "Humans are united in their goals,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-002", "start": 3953.58, "end": 3956.54, "text": "which is basically how do we create a better civilization.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-003", "start": 3957.1, "end": 3958.56, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-004", "start": 3958.8, "end": 3960.04, "text": "When all society has collapsed,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-005", "start": 3960.26, "end": 3962.02, "text": "everyone's like, how do we recreate civilization?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-006", "start": 3962.6, "end": 3963.34, "text": "That's the goal.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-007", "start": 3964.04, "end": 3965.8, "text": "But in a more progressive,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-008", "start": 3966.08, "end": 3969.49, "text": "more democratic, and more prosperous way.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-009", "start": 3970.56, "end": 3972.16, "text": "Okay? That's what I'm betting on.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-010", "start": 3972.36, "end": 3973.2, "text": "But I don't know.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-011", "start": 3973.4, "end": 3980.28, "text": "Okay? And, again, if everyone's fighting over the AI,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-012", "start": 3980.58, "end": 3981.88, "text": "this AI cannot be created.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-013", "start": 3982.06, "end": 3986.78, "text": "Okay? Because different people will want this AI to be biased in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-014", "start": 3986.78, "end": 3987.2, "text": "a different way.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-015", "start": 3987.2, "end": 3993.38, "text": "This AI can only work if it steps outside of history and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-016", "start": 3993.38, "end": 3995.32, "text": "steps outside of human interests.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-017", "start": 3995.64, "end": 3998.88, "text": "Okay? If it's speaking for all of humanity rather than one nation", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-018", "start": 3998.88, "end": 3999.9, "text": "or one group of people.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-019", "start": 4004.34, "end": 4005.64, "text": "Okay? Any more questions?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-020", "start": 4007.24, "end": 4008.7, "text": "Is this clear to you guys?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-021", "start": 4009.42, "end": 4010.12, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-022", "start": 4010.24, "end": 4012.7, "text": "So, all right.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-023", "start": 4013.02, "end": 4015.81, "text": "So, this is the very end.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-024", "start": 4015.99, "end": 4022.59, "text": "And I'll spend, like, five more minutes to talk about this year.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-025", "start": 4022.59, "end": 4026.94, "text": "Okay? So, this is the very", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0052-chunk-026", "start": 4026.94, "end": 4029.82, "text": "first time I've taught both courses.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "aa5d14f02affbf238a6db4aa5735aa6f045430460fbbe376aa6b2b776b4394ea", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0052", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=3949s", "time_label": "1:05:49", "tags": [ "answer" ] }, { "id": "seg-0053", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "start": 4029.96, "end": 4105.62, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? In the first semester, we read the great books. And I was blown away by how much you guys enjoyed the great books. And how much you benefit from reading the great books. Okay? And quite honestly, I don't think anyone has tried this before. I know there are great books courses in university. But not at the pace that we had. And certainly not at the level of difficulty that we had. Okay? So, you guys should be proud of yourself. Because the great books courses was very hard. And you enjoyed it. Even today, most of you really like the Iliad. Right? You guys still remember the Iliad and think very highly of it. Okay? So, that's very impressive. So, thank you. This semester is also a new course where we looked at geopolitics. And I'm also very impressed by how much you've grown as well in this course. The way you guys think, it's much more logical, much more analytical.", "word_count": 164, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-001", "start": 4029.96, "end": 4031.22, "text": "Okay? In the first semester,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-002", "start": 4031.64, "end": 4033.7, "text": "we read the great books.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-003", "start": 4034.98, "end": 4044.12, "text": "And I was blown away by how much you guys enjoyed the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-004", "start": 4044.12, "end": 4044.48, "text": "great books.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-005", "start": 4044.62, "end": 4050.82, "text": "And how much you benefit from reading the great books.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-006", "start": 4051.02, "end": 4055.16, "text": "Okay? And quite honestly, I don't think anyone has tried this before.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-007", "start": 4056.44, "end": 4058.28, "text": "I know there are great books courses in university.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-008", "start": 4059.28, "end": 4063.8, "text": "But not at the pace that we had.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-009", "start": 4064.18, "end": 4066.7, "text": "And certainly not at the level of difficulty that we had.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-010", "start": 4066.88, "end": 4068.7, "text": "Okay? So, you guys should be proud of yourself.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-011", "start": 4069.12, "end": 4071.6, "text": "Because the great books courses was very hard.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-012", "start": 4072.84, "end": 4074.22, "text": "And you enjoyed it.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-013", "start": 4074.7, "end": 4077.16, "text": "Even today, most of you really like the Iliad.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-014", "start": 4077.26, "end": 4080.34, "text": "Right? You guys still remember the Iliad and think very highly of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-015", "start": 4080.34, "end": 4080.56, "text": "it. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-016", "start": 4082.1, "end": 4083.68, "text": "So, that's very impressive.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-017", "start": 4083.82, "end": 4084.32, "text": "So, thank you.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-018", "start": 4084.54, "end": 4089.68, "text": "This semester is also a new course where we looked at geopolitics.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-019", "start": 4090.14, "end": 4098.56, "text": "And I'm also very impressed by how much you've grown as well", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-020", "start": 4098.56, "end": 4100.24, "text": "in this course.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-021", "start": 4101.92, "end": 4102.68, "text": "The way", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-022", "start": 4102.68, "end": 4104.38, "text": "you guys think, it's much more logical,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0053-chunk-023", "start": 4104.66, "end": 4105.62, "text": "much more analytical.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "b7e25ada62af1d0fbe5911ca63b0a24d410197e34c0c30923698ea9752401960", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0053", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=4029s", "time_label": "1:07:09", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0054", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "start": 4105.84, "end": 4186.81, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "You guys are asking great questions. Okay? So, thank you again. Because you don't have to work hard in this course. But you chose to work hard. And this is going to carry you very far in life. Okay? So, the course has come to an end. And I will share with you why I teach this course. Okay? Because some of you know. I do have a very prestigious education background as well as a career background. Okay? And I could have been, what, a lawyer, I think? A lawyer. A rich lawyer. A professor. Okay? But instead, I'm teaching high school in China. Right? Why am I doing this? It's because I have three kids. Okay? I have three young kids. My eldest is six. My youngest is only about eight months. Okay? And as a father, you have to believe in a better world. But not only", "word_count": 150, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-001", "start": 4105.84, "end": 4107.2, "text": "You guys are asking great questions.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-002", "start": 4107.36, "end": 4110.62, "text": "Okay? So, thank you again.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-003", "start": 4110.62, "end": 4114.74, "text": "Because you don't have to work hard in this course.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-004", "start": 4114.9, "end": 4116.22, "text": "But you chose to work hard.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-005", "start": 4116.56, "end": 4121.82, "text": "And this is going to carry you very far in life.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-006", "start": 4122.12, "end": 4130.52, "text": "Okay? So, the course has come to an end.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-007", "start": 4130.86, "end": 4136.98, "text": "And I will share with you why I teach this course.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-008", "start": 4137.16, "end": 4140.88, "text": "Okay? Because some of you know.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-009", "start": 4140.88, "end": 4146.76, "text": "I do have a very prestigious education background as well as a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-010", "start": 4146.76, "end": 4147.7, "text": "career background.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-011", "start": 4148.2, "end": 4151.7, "text": "Okay? And I could have been,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-012", "start": 4151.78, "end": 4153.2, "text": "what, a lawyer, I think?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-013", "start": 4153.3, "end": 4153.7, "text": "A lawyer.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-014", "start": 4154, "end": 4154.9, "text": "A rich lawyer.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-015", "start": 4155.16, "end": 4156.08, "text": "A professor.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-016", "start": 4156.4, "end": 4160.22, "text": "Okay? But instead, I'm teaching high school in China.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-017", "start": 4160.82, "end": 4162.46, "text": "Right? Why am I doing this?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-018", "start": 4163.44, "end": 4171.17, "text": "It's because I have three kids.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-019", "start": 4171.57, "end": 4173.63, "text": "Okay? I have three young kids.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-020", "start": 4174.8, "end": 4175.92, "text": "My eldest is six.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-021", "start": 4175.92, "end": 4177.98, "text": "My youngest is only about eight months.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0054-chunk-022", "start": 4178.4, "end": 4180.76, "text": "Okay? 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So, why I teach this course is to bring you a message of hope. Okay? Like, through your own imagination, through your own hard work, you can create a better world. You don't have to sit back and just let the world happen. You don't have to wait for the future. You can make it happen. And if you really work hard at it, you can make the world a better place. And I think, like, this year has proven to me that I can make the world a better place if I work hard. Because I've seen the growth in all of you. Okay? So, I hope we can stay in touch. I hope that you will tell me how you progress. 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You know? I know it sounds very complicated. It's very abstract. But to make this work, you need a lot of people working together. Okay? And it's something that's going to happen tomorrow. But it's something that we might come back to later on in our lives. Okay? So, that's it. Thank you. And we'll stay in touch. 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And it's something that's going to happen tomorrow.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-009", "start": 4276.38, "end": 4280.56, "text": "But it's something that we might come back to later on in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-010", "start": 4280.56, "end": 4281.16, "text": "our lives.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-011", "start": 4282.1, "end": 4283.78, "text": "Okay? So, that's it.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-012", "start": 4284.08, "end": 4284.8, "text": "Thank you.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-013", "start": 4284.96, "end": 4286.98, "text": "And we'll stay in touch.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0056-chunk-014", "start": 4287.04, "end": 4287.16, "text": "Okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "959659d8bc819513842cede933fe18daf3c6feda1832bb1cafba92d0d2223dc7", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa/transcript/#seg-0056", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_k6esWheqA&t=4253s", "time_label": "1:10:53", "tags": [ "monologue" ] } ], "interactions": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang closes the course by turning a bleak semester of Great Books and geopolitics into a lecture about hope: the future is not waited for, it is imagined, fought for, and made.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang addressing a class in a final lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.75, "end": 85.61, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, well, this is it. The end of the journey, the final class. So, we've done a lot this year, right? Last semester, we did the great books, the Iliad, the Odyssey, the Bible, Republic, Divine Comedy. This semester, w..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 85.63, "end": 144.86, "time_label": "1:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it's these two things that will guide us and enable us to build a better world. Okay? So, that's the message I want to give to you today. The future is what we imagine, not what we have to put up with. So, if we don..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 145.48, "end": 228.44, "time_label": "2:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the deaths of millions and billions of people. And because of climate change, our world will eventually collapse at some point. Okay? 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And in the Foundation books, he introduces the idea of psychohistory. And so, this book is set in the future, like a million years from now. Where there is a galactic empire..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 306.1, "end": 393.04, "time_label": "5:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, this is what he called psychohistory. And it's a science fiction concept. And a lot of people have been trying to make it into reality. Okay? So, there's this very prominent historian. His name is Peter Turkin..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 393.04, "end": 475.58, "time_label": "6:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it's a really interesting idea. Is the reason why societies collapse in the end. Is you have too many elites. All right? So, let me explain the concept. Okay. So, society has many elites. Right? You have people like..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 475.9, "end": 552.49, "time_label": "7:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "If everyone has the power, no one has any power. Okay? So, what happens over time is that all these people who believe they have power. They should have power. Struggle for power. And because there are too many of them,..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 552.71, "end": 629.98, "time_label": "9:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Because he failed the Kejiu. Okay? So, that's the idea of the overproduction of the elite. And he discovered this principle using mathematically modeling of history. Okay? He just compared different societies and tried..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang demystifies AI as supervised machine learning, contrasting ordinary programming with systems that refine an algorithm by comparing outputs to labeled results, then illustrates this through facial recognition.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture with rhetorical classroom checks.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 630.1, "end": 700.47, "time_label": "10:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, what is AI? All right. The AI, the technical term, is supervised intelligence. Supervised machine learning. Okay? That's the technical term. AI is the popular term. But supervised machine learning is the techn..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 700.47, "end": 779.65, "time_label": "11:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That's how computers work. Right? Now, supervised machine learning is that. I will turn the output into the input. Okay? And the reason why I want to do that is that as a human being, I myself may not be able to write t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 780.25, "end": 843.41, "time_label": "13:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does that make sense? So, what I do is for the face, I create a mathematical model based on topology. Okay? Does that make sense? Topology. So, I turn everyone's face into a mathematical model. Okay? Which looks l..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 843.41, "end": 915.32, "time_label": "14:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "that I can only look at your eyes and I know who you are okay because what I'm trying to do is match what your model with the model in the database all right but what what's important to remember is that if you're not i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He reduces usable AI to three requirements: clear mathematical outputs, clean labeled data, and a working algorithmic structure that computers can refine but not invent from nothing.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 915.32, "end": 989.07, "time_label": "15:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "this is wrong and what the computer then does is we find this model until it becomes this doesn't make sense okay so what this what all AI is is infinite iteration okay it doesn't make sense all right okay so the proble..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 989.07, "end": 1064.61, "time_label": "16:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "need to solve then is data okay for input but the thing about data is that it has to be cleaner than the score the okay does that make sense it has to be a clean data okay so for example if I want to teach this AI to re..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1064.61, "end": 1160.3, "time_label": "17:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "structure it cannot create by itself okay so if I'm able to do all three things then I'm able to use AI to optimize what I wanted to optimize okay all right any questions so far before I move on okay so what this means..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Jiang asks whether self-driving cars can be solved, appears to call on Sally, then rejects the affirmative answer by introducing the unsolved edge case of intentional human collision.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang reports or responds to Sally; the student's words are not directly captured.", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1064.61, "end": 1160.3, "time_label": "17:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "structure it cannot create by itself okay so if I'm able to do all three things then I'm able to use AI to optimize what I wanted to optimize okay all right any questions so far before I move on okay so what this means..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1162.21, "end": 1249.85, "time_label": "19:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, the answer no is, whatever I do, okay, I cannot solve something called the edge case. The edge case is, if the car is on the road, what could happen that would screw up my AI system? You guys know? Why can't self..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang sharpens the edge-case argument into an anti-mystification of AI: it is not self-aware intelligence, only supervised machine learning, and its applications are limited.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture following the self-driving-car exchange.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1250.09, "end": 1315.08, "time_label": "20:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But in a situation where I'm the human being, and I don't like self -driving cars because I'm a taxi driver, and it's stealing my job, right? It's stealing my livelihood, and I want to crash into that car. There's no wa..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1315.08, "end": 1392.53, "time_label": "21:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "think about actual applications of AI it's it's very limited you also look at self -driving cars now there are cars that have self -driving features but they are not 100 % self -driving it doesn't make sense in fact the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0021" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He then applies the three AI requirements to his geopolitical predictions: identify outputs, assemble historical war data, test and refine models, combine them, and let psychohistory emerge over time.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1315.08, "end": 1392.53, "time_label": "21:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "think about actual applications of AI it's it's very limited you also look at self -driving cars now there are cars that have self -driving features but they are not 100 % self -driving it doesn't make sense in fact the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1392.53, "end": 1489.46, "time_label": "23:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for example remember what we remember my predictions the issue a lobby, Saudi Arabia and the American Empire, basically the need to protect the petrodollar, will force America to go to war with Iran. These are the push..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1492.18, "end": 1578.57, "time_label": "24:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now that we have the AI model, what we need to do now is to refine it. And the way we refine it is by going back in history and looking at every single war that started. Does that make sense? You take this model and you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1579.93, "end": 1665.46, "time_label": "26:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does this make sense, guys? All right. So now the question then is, okay, how would this AI model work? Or what are sort of the ideas behind this model? Okay? So we talk about game theory analysis a lot. All right..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He adds substantive model inputs: game theory, the 2024 European Parliament shift rightward, anti-immigration, anti-bureaucracy, anti-pan-Europeanism, and the human demand for local identity, structure, meaning, purpose, love, creation, learning, and growth.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1579.93, "end": 1665.46, "time_label": "26:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does this make sense, guys? All right. So now the question then is, okay, how would this AI model work? Or what are sort of the ideas behind this model? Okay? So we talk about game theory analysis a lot. All right..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1665.86, "end": 1759.24, "time_label": "27:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the results are pretty shocking, because it signals a clear shift to the right. So, for example, Marylepaine's party in France picked up a lot of votes this week. of votes. The AFD, the Alternative for Germany in Ge..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1759.24, "end": 1852.59, "time_label": "29:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And now Europeans are rebelling or revolting against that. Second thing that they don't like about Europe so far is the idea of federalism, okay? Or they can say bureaucratism. But it's the idea that a foreign power, Br..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1852.59, "end": 1947.8, "time_label": "30:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And my family. Does that make sense? Okay, it's imposing a foreign identity on me. And proponents of the European Union would argue that, no, this is just a secular, liberal idea, okay? The entire idea of the EU is that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Responding to Eric's question about the source of the human drive, Jiang answers with Homer and Dante's 'human heart': societies prosper when they conform to it and collapse when they repress it. He adds synchronicity as a measure of rule-following, cohesion, trust, and resilience.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answering a student question attributed to Eric.", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1947.98, "end": 2042.183, "time_label": "32:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That's what we are fundamentally as human beings. And when you ask me to obey an abstract foreign entity that is very far from me, then you are, like, not human. You are limiting or destroying the structure, meaning, an..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 2042.183, "end": 2135.46, "time_label": "34:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will want to kill, okay? And so, in other words, one idea in this AI model is that there is a fundamental underlying structure to human society, okay? If society conforms to the structure of the human heart, this soc..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 2135.68, "end": 2211.92, "time_label": "35:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "For children? For pregnant women? Okay? When you go to the park, do people actually pick up garbage and throw it in the garbage bin, okay? Sequanticity tells us that there's cohesion and trust in society, that society i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "In response to an unclear student question, Jiang argues that mass society is a historical accident requiring artificial elites; because those elites are not genuinely superior, they create legitimating fictions and eventually repress the human heart to maintain obedience.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answering an unidentified student question.", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2212.06, "end": 2310.6, "time_label": "36:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does it make sense? Any questions so far? Yeah, excuse me? Okay, that's a great question, okay? So one thing that was not supposed to happen is the idea of mass estás? You can say that mass society is a complete, what's..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2312.88, "end": 2370.415, "time_label": "38:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They need to create fictions. For example, maybe, well, I went to Yale or Harvard, and therefore, I should be at the top. Or maybe I have a higher IQ than you do. Or maybe my dad or my great -great -great -great -grandf..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2370.415, "end": 2466.28, "time_label": "39:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's what's happening today. And so this repression can go on for a long time, but to control us, they must repress the human heart. Okay? Because it's in the human heart to want to question. To be curious...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Answering Sally, Jiang accepts individual variation at the surface but insists that all humans share fundamental needs for structure, meaning, purpose, love, creation, and growth; achieving them is eudaimonia.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answering Sally.", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2370.415, "end": 2466.28, "time_label": "39:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's what's happening today. And so this repression can go on for a long time, but to control us, they must repress the human heart. Okay? Because it's in the human heart to want to question. To be curious...." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2466.62, "end": 2523.45, "time_label": "41:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's a great point. But what Homer and Dante would say that, no. No. No. No. No. At the fundamental level, okay, we all have the same desires. We're motivated by the same needs. Okay? There's no one in this..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2524.97, "end": 2557.65, "time_label": "42:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "When you achieve all three things, what do we call this? Eudaimonia. Right? This is eudaimonia. This is what the Greeks meant. By a happy. Happy. And self -fulfilled life. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? So, there may..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "kind": "unclear", "summary": "A very short conversational bridge is captured as 'Yeah. Yes.' with no substantive content.", "speaker_attribution": "Unclear; likely classroom backchannel.", "confidence": "low", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2560.99, "end": 2565.54, "time_label": "42:40", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Yeah. Yes." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Answering Sally's question about constructing the AI, Jiang says it would take 50 to 100 years of prediction, validation, revision, historical reconstruction, and collaboration among historians, mathematicians, and programmers.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answering Sally.", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2571.87, "end": 2638.102, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So, Sally asked the question, like, how do you construct this? This AI. Okay? And so, for this AI to be valid, okay, let me explain how we would actually implement. Okay? So, first of all, you need at least 50 to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2638.102, "end": 2701.21, "time_label": "43:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "If they're not correct, what you have to do is go away. You have to change these predictions, okay? And analysis. Okay? Does that make sense? Then what you have to do is you basically have to, and this is actually what'..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2701.21, "end": 2773.7, "time_label": "45:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But also going back to throughout history and seeing how history can be revamped or changed so that it's more accurate. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? That's a project. But now, but then there's the technology. Becau..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2773.7, "end": 2838.01, "time_label": "46:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "one thing that you notice in this class, it's like we tend to repeat the same mistakes. Right? The question is like, why do we do that? It's because the history that we have is complete bullshit. It just is. It's not tr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Answering Eric's edge-case question, Jiang identifies great men as the edge cases of psychohistory and introduces Asimov's second foundation: experts behind the AI who observe history and correct the model when exceptional people disrupt it.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answering Eric.", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2839.14, "end": 2925.561, "time_label": "47:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right? Any more questions? Yeah, Eric? Excuse me? Oh, so Eric asked a great question. Will this psychohistory model encounter edge cases? And the answer is, that's the best question. Okay? That's a great question. And t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2925.561, "end": 2995.22, "time_label": "48:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They can step outside of history and control history. That's what great men are. So, how does your model account for that? Okay? And the answer is, you cannot. So, in foundation, okay, the solution, okay, but there is a..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2995.25, "end": 3072.7, "time_label": "49:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "specialists who observe the AI and who observe history and who correct the AI for edge cases. Okay? Does that make sense? So, Putin appears and is like, okay, well, clearly, I'm not accounting for Putin. Well, then I ch..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Continuing the answer to Eric, Jiang speculates that great men may be telepaths in the functional sense: people able to read and control minds, step outside history, and direct it.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answering Eric.", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 3073.12, "end": 3137.938, "time_label": "51:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I think yes. And the answer is that you can make the argument that these edge cases that Eric refers to, these great men of history, they're actually telepaths. Okay? Does that make sense? They're actually telepaths. So..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3137.938, "end": 3219.92, "time_label": "52:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And is it possible that in the future we'll have more telepaths? And we can, over time, harness the power of these telepaths to create the second foundation and to control psychohistory? Possibly. Right? Okay? Because,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Answering Celine on how to model love, learning, and creation, Jiang says the model needs agency, freedom, social interaction, and compassion because human powers arise through other people.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answering Celine.", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3220.04, "end": 3300.8, "time_label": "53:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Okay. How do you model love, learn, and create? Okay? And the answer is that there has to be a certain amount of autonomy or agency in the lives of people. Does that make sense? What we call freedom and liberty. B..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3301.68, "end": 3369.87, "time_label": "55:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And the last thing is you also have to model in the idea of compassion. Okay? So the idea here is that if I all put you on an island together. Okay? And you must survive. Well, you will become compassionate with e..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Answering Eric's question about understanding human behavior and motivation, Jiang contrasts social science with literature and says Homer and Dante express human truths that cannot be mathematically captured, especially love and imagination.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answering Eric.", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3370.17, "end": 3485.1, "time_label": "56:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does that make sense? Actually, guys, we have all these theories. It's just like no one is turning this into a mathematical model. Okay? For society. Any more questions? Yeah? Yeah. So Eric asked the question, is..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3485.28, "end": 3573.58, "time_label": "58:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Prime sneaks into Achilles' tent. And kisses his hand. Right? That moment. You can never mathematically express it. You can only write about it. But think about how much truth and power is in that one scene. Okay? Do..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Answering Celine's question about why humans destroy themselves if they want to love, create, and grow, Jiang says love and hate, creation and destruction are paired forces: blocked love becomes hate and blocked creation becomes destruction.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answering Celine.", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3485.28, "end": 3573.58, "time_label": "58:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Prime sneaks into Achilles' tent. And kisses his hand. Right? That moment. You can never mathematically express it. You can only write about it. But think about how much truth and power is in that one scene. Okay? Do..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 3574.12, "end": 3646.028, "time_label": "59:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the answer is that love and hate are one force. You understand? If I can't love you, I'm going to hate you. You understand? Okay? Guess what, guys? Creation and destruction. Destruction is one force as well. If I ca..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3646.028, "end": 3740.08, "time_label": "1:00:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But within each of these things is another force. And if love can't be satisfied. Love can't express itself. Then hate will express itself. Does that make sense? Okay? All right. Any more questions? Yeah? So Sally asked..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Continuing Sally's control question, Jiang says the psychohistory AI must be open, transparent, and democratic, giving scenario maps that let humans agree on collective action rather than letting elites exploit it.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answering Sally.", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3741.21, "end": 3807.46, "time_label": "1:02:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it will give you different scenarios. And we can all agree on which scenario we want. And therefore, we can agree on what action to take. Okay? So, this AI has to be part of a democratic system where everyone is inv..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3807.66, "end": 3875.45, "time_label": "1:03:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right? The United States attacks Iran, then this will happen. And that becomes a very powerful argument for correct and proper behavior. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. But again, guys, this is just conjecture. O..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "kind": "answer", "summary": "Answering a question about different nations wanting different outcomes, Jiang says today's hegemonic interests are incompatible, but collapse could unify humanity around rebuilding civilization; the AI must speak for humanity rather than any nation or group.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answering an unidentified student question.", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3877.93, "end": 3949.789, "time_label": "1:04:37", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, if it is true, if my predictions are correct and society is approaching collapse, then there should be a lot of space and leeway and flexibility to create this AI. Okay? Okay. Any more questions? Yeah? That's a grea..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 3949.789, "end": 4029.82, "time_label": "1:05:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Humans are united in their goals, which is basically how do we create a better civilization. Okay? Does that make sense? When all society has collapsed, everyone's like, how do we recreate civilization? That's the goal...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang closes with a personal course reflection: the Great Books and geopolitics courses proved students can grow, his teaching is rooted in fatherhood and legacy, and the dream of psychohistory may require them to keep working together later in life.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang closing lecture.", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 4029.96, "end": 4105.62, "time_label": "1:07:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? In the first semester, we read the great books. And I was blown away by how much you guys enjoyed the great books. And how much you benefit from reading the great books. Okay? And quite honestly, I don't think any..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 4105.84, "end": 4186.81, "time_label": "1:08:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You guys are asking great questions. Okay? So, thank you again. Because you don't have to work hard in this course. But you chose to work hard. And this is going to carry you very far in life. Okay? So, the course has c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 4186.81, "end": 4253.52, "time_label": "1:09:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "do you have to believe in a better world, you have to imagine and to fight for it. Because you have to leave behind a legacy for your children. Okay? 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And it's someth..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "speaker_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "note": "The focus refs read as continuous Jiang monologue despite routine classroom checks like 'does that make sense'.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.75, "end": 85.61, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, well, this is it. The end of the journey, the final class. So, we've done a lot this year, right? Last semester, we did the great books, the Iliad, the Odyssey, the Bible, Republic, Divine Comedy. This semester, w..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 552.71, "end": 629.98, "time_label": "9:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Because he failed the Kejiu. Okay? So, that's the idea of the overproduction of the elite. And he discovered this principle using mathematically modeling of history. Okay? He just compared different societies and tried..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "note": "The focus refs are mostly Jiang monologue. The only audience interaction is reported indirectly around Sally and self-driving cars.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 630.1, "end": 700.47, "time_label": "10:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, what is AI? All right. The AI, the technical term, is supervised intelligence. Supervised machine learning. Okay? That's the technical term. AI is the popular term. But supervised machine learning is the techn..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1162.21, "end": 1249.85, "time_label": "19:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, the answer no is, whatever I do, okay, I cannot solve something called the edge case. The edge case is, if the car is on the road, what could happen that would screw up my AI system? You guys know? Why can't self..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "note": "All focus refs are Jiang's lecture voice. Questions like 'does that make sense' and 'have you seen the news' are classroom prompts rather than source questions for the public read.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1250.09, "end": 1315.08, "time_label": "20:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But in a situation where I'm the human being, and I don't like self -driving cars because I'm a taxi driver, and it's stealing my job, right? It's stealing my livelihood, and I want to crash into that car. There's no wa..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1852.59, "end": 1947.8, "time_label": "30:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And my family. Does that make sense? Okay, it's imposing a foreign identity on me. And proponents of the European Union would argue that, no, this is just a secular, liberal idea, okay? The entire idea of the EU is that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "note": "Student questions are mostly paraphrased by Jiang rather than directly transcribed. Use them as real source questions only when Jiang explicitly names or restates them.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1947.98, "end": 2042.183, "time_label": "32:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That's what we are fundamentally as human beings. And when you ask me to obey an abstract foreign entity that is very far from me, then you are, like, not human. You are limiting or destroying the structure, meaning, an..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2524.97, "end": 2557.65, "time_label": "42:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "When you achieve all three things, what do we call this? Eudaimonia. Right? This is eudaimonia. This is what the Greeks meant. By a happy. Happy. And self -fulfilled life. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? So, there may..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "note": "Segment 0033 is too short to attribute confidently and does not add semantic content.", "suggested_speaker": null, "confidence": "low", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2560.99, "end": 2565.54, "time_label": "42:40", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Yeah. Yes." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "note": "The substantive focus refs are Jiang answering named student questions from Sally and Eric.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2571.87, "end": 2638.102, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So, Sally asked the question, like, how do you construct this? This AI. Okay? And so, for this AI to be valid, okay, let me explain how we would actually implement. Okay? So, first of all, you need at least 50 to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2995.25, "end": 3072.7, "time_label": "49:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "specialists who observe the AI and who observe history and who correct the AI for edge cases. Okay? Does that make sense? So, Putin appears and is like, okay, well, clearly, I'm not accounting for Putin. Well, then I ch..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "note": "All focus refs are Jiang's answers to named student questions; the student questions are paraphrased by Jiang rather than independently transcribed.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 3073.12, "end": 3137.938, "time_label": "51:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I think yes. And the answer is that you can make the argument that these edge cases that Eric refers to, these great men of history, they're actually telepaths. Okay? Does that make sense? They're actually telepaths. So..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3646.028, "end": 3740.08, "time_label": "1:00:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But within each of these things is another force. And if love can't be satisfied. Love can't express itself. Then hate will express itself. Does that make sense? Okay? All right. Any more questions? Yeah? So Sally asked..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "note": "The focus refs are Jiang's answers and closing monologue. Student questions are paraphrased by Jiang, not directly transcribed.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3741.21, "end": 3807.46, "time_label": "1:02:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it will give you different scenarios. And we can all agree on which scenario we want. And therefore, we can agree on what action to take. Okay? So, this AI has to be part of a democratic system where everyone is inv..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 4253.86, "end": 4287.16, "time_label": "1:10:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And maybe at some point, we can share this dream of psychohistory. You know? I know it sounds very complicated. It's very abstract. But to make this work, you need a lot of people working together. Okay? And it's someth..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "claims": [ { "claim": "Jiang frames the final class as a movement from the semester's bleak world analysis toward hope and future-making.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "temporal_scope": "Course-closing framing on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "hope", "future", "course-frame" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.75, "end": 85.61, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, well, this is it. The end of the journey, the final class. So, we've done a lot this year, right? Last semester, we did the great books, the Iliad, the Odyssey, the Bible, Republic, Divine Comedy. 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So, this is an extremely hopeless and extremely bleak and dark picture of the wor..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says the future is what people imagine, fight for, and make happen, not something passively endured.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0002" ], "temporal_scope": "General normative model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "agency", "imagination", "future" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.75, "end": 85.61, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, well, this is it. The end of the journey, the final class. So, we've done a lot this year, right? Last semester, we did the great books, the Iliad, the Odyssey, the Bible, Republic, Divine Comedy. 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So, if we don..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He reprises earlier course predictions that Trump will be elected again in November, declare war on Iran, end the American Empire, and produce a multipolar world of endless war.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking prediction as of 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "iran", "american-empire", "multipolarity" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 85.63, "end": 144.86, "time_label": "1:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it's these two things that will guide us and enable us to build a better world. Okay? So, that's the message I want to give to you today. The future is what we imagine, not what we have to put up with. 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So, this is an extremely hopeless and extremely bleak and dark picture of the wor..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He defines psychohistory as the idea that the future can be predicted, controlled, and harnessed for humanity's betterment.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "psychohistory", "prediction", "control" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 145.48, "end": 228.44, "time_label": "2:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the deaths of millions and billions of people. And because of climate change, our world will eventually collapse at some point. Okay? 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Where there is a galactic empire..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says Asimov's Foundation imagines mathematical mapping of human behavior across immense time scales in order to manipulate events toward a better future.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretation of Foundation stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "asimov", "foundation", "psychohistory" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 228.94, "end": 305.96, "time_label": "3:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "It's terrible, but you can have a look at it. And in the Foundation books, he introduces the idea of psychohistory. And so, this book is set in the future, like a million years from now. Where there is a galactic empire..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He presents cliodynamics as an attempt to turn history into a mathematical model and cites elite overproduction as a pattern explaining social collapse.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "temporal_scope": "Model summary stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "cliodynamics", "elite-overproduction", "collapse" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 306.1, "end": 393.04, "time_label": "5:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, this is what he called psychohistory. And it's a science fiction concept. And a lot of people have been trying to make it into reality. Okay? So, there's this very prominent historian. His name is Peter Turkin..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 393.04, "end": 475.58, "time_label": "6:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it's a really interesting idea. Is the reason why societies collapse in the end. Is you have too many elites. All right? So, let me explain the concept. Okay. So, society has many elites. Right? You have people like..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He argues that wealth and fame can expand, but power is finite and zero-sum, so too many elites competing for power drive social collapse.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "temporal_scope": "General collapse model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "power", "zero-sum", "elite-conflict", "collapse" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 393.04, "end": 475.58, "time_label": "6:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it's a really interesting idea. Is the reason why societies collapse in the end. Is you have too many elites. All right? So, let me explain the concept. Okay. So, society has many elites. Right? You have people like..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 475.9, "end": 552.49, "time_label": "7:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "If everyone has the power, no one has any power. Okay? So, what happens over time is that all these people who believe they have power. They should have power. Struggle for power. And because there are too many of them,..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 552.71, "end": 629.98, "time_label": "9:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Because he failed the Kejiu. Okay? So, that's the idea of the overproduction of the elite. And he discovered this principle using mathematically modeling of history. Okay? He just compared different societies and tried..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He uses failed imperial examination candidates and Hong Xiuquan as examples of frustrated would-be elites leading revolutionary collapse.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical example used on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "china", "keju", "hong-xiuquan", "elite-overproduction" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 475.9, "end": 552.49, "time_label": "7:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "If everyone has the power, no one has any power. Okay? So, what happens over time is that all these people who believe they have power. They should have power. Struggle for power. 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He just compared different societies and tried..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He proposes using AI to go beyond cliodynamics by creating real psychohistory: a system able to analyze the past and predict the future.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "temporal_scope": "Project proposal stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "ai", "cliodynamics", "psychohistory" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 552.71, "end": 629.98, "time_label": "9:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Because he failed the Kejiu. Okay? So, that's the idea of the overproduction of the elite. And he discovered this principle using mathematically modeling of history. Okay? He just compared different societies and tried..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the technically correct term for AI is supervised machine learning.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0009" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "ai", "supervised-machine-learning", "definition" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 630.1, "end": 700.47, "time_label": "10:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, what is AI? All right. The AI, the technical term, is supervised intelligence. Supervised machine learning. Okay? That's the technical term. AI is the popular term. But supervised machine learning is the techn..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He defines traditional computer programming as algorithm plus input producing output, and supervised machine learning as turning the desired output into part of the input so the computer can refine the algorithm.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "temporal_scope": "Technical model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "algorithm", "input-output", "machine-learning" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 630.1, "end": 700.47, "time_label": "10:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, what is AI? All right. The AI, the technical term, is supervised intelligence. Supervised machine learning. Okay? That's the technical term. AI is the popular term. But supervised machine learning is the techn..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 700.47, "end": 779.65, "time_label": "11:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That's how computers work. Right? Now, supervised machine learning is that. I will turn the output into the input. Okay? And the reason why I want to do that is that as a human being, I myself may not be able to write t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He uses facial recognition as an example of converting faces into mathematical topology and matching that model against a database.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "temporal_scope": "Example stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "facial-recognition", "topology", "database" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 700.47, "end": 779.65, "time_label": "11:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That's how computers work. Right? Now, supervised machine learning is that. I will turn the output into the input. Okay? And the reason why I want to do that is that as a human being, I myself may not be able to write t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 780.25, "end": 843.41, "time_label": "13:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does that make sense? So, what I do is for the face, I create a mathematical model based on topology. Okay? Does that make sense? Topology. So, I turn everyone's face into a mathematical model. Okay? Which looks l..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 843.41, "end": 915.32, "time_label": "14:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "that I can only look at your eyes and I know who you are okay because what I'm trying to do is match what your model with the model in the database all right but what what's important to remember is that if you're not i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says AI is infinite iteration: the model returns a result, is told when it is wrong, and refines itself until it matches the target output.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "iteration", "machine-learning", "optimization" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 843.41, "end": 915.32, "time_label": "14:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "that I can only look at your eyes and I know who you are okay because what I'm trying to do is match what your model with the model in the database all right but what what's important to remember is that if you're not i..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 915.32, "end": 989.07, "time_label": "15:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "this is wrong and what the computer then does is we find this model until it becomes this doesn't make sense okay so what this what all AI is is infinite iteration okay it doesn't make sense all right okay so the proble..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He argues that usable AI requires clear metrics or outputs, clean data, and a working algorithm structure.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015" ], "temporal_scope": "Technical model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "ai-requirements", "data", "metrics", "algorithm" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 915.32, "end": 989.07, "time_label": "15:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "this is wrong and what the computer then does is we find this model until it becomes this doesn't make sense okay so what this what all AI is is infinite iteration okay it doesn't make sense all right okay so the proble..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 989.07, "end": 1064.61, "time_label": "16:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "need to solve then is data okay for input but the thing about data is that it has to be cleaner than the score the okay does that make sense it has to be a clean data okay so for example if I want to teach this AI to re..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1064.61, "end": 1160.3, "time_label": "17:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "structure it cannot create by itself okay so if I'm able to do all three things then I'm able to use AI to optimize what I wanted to optimize okay all right any questions so far before I move on okay so what this means..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says subjective questions like the best ice cream cannot be turned into AI problems because they lack clean, objective data.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "temporal_scope": "General limitation stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "subjectivity", "data", "ai-limits" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 989.07, "end": 1064.61, "time_label": "16:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "need to solve then is data okay for input but the thing about data is that it has to be cleaner than the score the okay does that make sense it has to be a clean data okay so for example if I want to teach this AI to re..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says computers can refine and optimize an algorithmic structure, but cannot create that structure by themselves.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015" ], "temporal_scope": "AI limitation stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "algorithm", "ai-limits", "optimization" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 989.07, "end": 1064.61, "time_label": "16:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "need to solve then is data okay for input but the thing about data is that it has to be cleaner than the score the okay does that make sense it has to be a clean data okay so for example if I want to teach this AI to re..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1064.61, "end": 1160.3, "time_label": "17:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "structure it cannot create by itself okay so if I'm able to do all three things then I'm able to use AI to optimize what I wanted to optimize okay all right any questions so far before I move on okay so what this means..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He argues that self-driving cars cannot be fully solved because the system cannot plan for a human intentionally trying to crash into the car.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "temporal_scope": "AI limitation stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "self-driving-cars", "edge-case", "intentionality", "ai-limits" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1064.61, "end": 1160.3, "time_label": "17:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "structure it cannot create by itself okay so if I'm able to do all three things then I'm able to use AI to optimize what I wanted to optimize okay all right any questions so far before I move on okay so what this means..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1162.21, "end": 1249.85, "time_label": "19:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, the answer no is, whatever I do, okay, I cannot solve something called the edge case. The edge case is, if the car is on the road, what could happen that would screw up my AI system? You guys know? Why can't self..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says AI does not have self-awareness and can only do what the algorithm tells it to do.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017" ], "temporal_scope": "AI limitation stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "ai", "self-awareness", "algorithm" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1250.09, "end": 1315.08, "time_label": "20:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But in a situation where I'm the human being, and I don't like self -driving cars because I'm a taxi driver, and it's stealing my job, right? It's stealing my livelihood, and I want to crash into that car. There's no wa..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says cars may have self-driving features but are not fully self-driving because they cannot prevent malicious or intentional human edge cases.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "temporal_scope": "AI limitation stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "self-driving-cars", "edge-case", "ai-limits" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1250.09, "end": 1315.08, "time_label": "20:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But in a situation where I'm the human being, and I don't like self -driving cars because I'm a taxi driver, and it's stealing my job, right? It's stealing my livelihood, and I want to crash into that car. There's no wa..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1315.08, "end": 1392.53, "time_label": "21:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "think about actual applications of AI it's it's very limited you also look at self -driving cars now there are cars that have self -driving features but they are not 100 % self -driving it doesn't make sense in fact the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He maps his Iran-war prediction into AI terms: push factors include the Israel lobby, Saudi Arabia, and American petrodollar needs, while insufficient counterforces leave war as the predicted output.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction-model example stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "iran", "petrodollar", "war-model", "ai" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1315.08, "end": 1392.53, "time_label": "21:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "think about actual applications of AI it's it's very limited you also look at self -driving cars now there are cars that have self -driving features but they are not 100 % self -driving it doesn't make sense in fact the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1392.53, "end": 1489.46, "time_label": "23:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for example remember what we remember my predictions the issue a lobby, Saudi Arabia and the American Empire, basically the need to protect the petrodollar, will force America to go to war with Iran. These are the push..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He predicts that the United States will go to war with Iran, with Trump as president seeking the war to cement his position.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking prediction as of 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "iran", "war" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1392.53, "end": 1489.46, "time_label": "23:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for example remember what we remember my predictions the issue a lobby, Saudi Arabia and the American Empire, basically the need to protect the petrodollar, will force America to go to war with Iran. These are the push..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says a war-cause model can be refined by testing it against historical cases such as the Sicilian expedition and Operation Barbarossa.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "temporal_scope": "Method proposal stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "historical-data", "model-testing", "war" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1492.18, "end": 1578.57, "time_label": "24:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now that we have the AI model, what we need to do now is to refine it. And the way we refine it is by going back in history and looking at every single war that started. Does that make sense? You take this model and you..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says psychohistory develops by combining multiple refined models, such as a war model and a Trump-election model.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "temporal_scope": "Method proposal stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "psychohistory", "model-composition", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1492.18, "end": 1578.57, "time_label": "24:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now that we have the AI model, what we need to do now is to refine it. And the way we refine it is by going back in history and looking at every single war that started. Does that make sense? You take this model and you..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He defines game theory analysis as a model without good and evil, only self-interested players trying to optimize winning strategies.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0021" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "game-theory", "self-interest", "strategy" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1579.93, "end": 1665.46, "time_label": "26:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does this make sense, guys? All right. So now the question then is, okay, how would this AI model work? Or what are sort of the ideas behind this model? Okay? So we talk about game theory analysis a lot. All right..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He interprets the June 2024 European Parliament results as a clear shift to the right driven by anti-immigration, anti-Brussels federalism, and rejection of pan-European identity.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "temporal_scope": "Diagnosis of events current to 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "european-elections", "rightward-shift", "immigration", "eu" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1579.93, "end": 1665.46, "time_label": "26:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does this make sense, guys? All right. So now the question then is, okay, how would this AI model work? Or what are sort of the ideas behind this model? Okay? So we talk about game theory analysis a lot. All right..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1665.86, "end": 1759.24, "time_label": "27:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the results are pretty shocking, because it signals a clear shift to the right. So, for example, Marylepaine's party in France picked up a lot of votes this week. of votes. The AFD, the Alternative for Germany in Ge..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1759.24, "end": 1852.59, "time_label": "29:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And now Europeans are rebelling or revolting against that. Second thing that they don't like about Europe so far is the idea of federalism, okay? Or they can say bureaucratism. But it's the idea that a foreign power, Br..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He predicts the European Union could be dead in about five years because voters reject a foreign pan-European identity imposed over local identities and relationships.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "temporal_scope": "Five-year prediction from 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "european-union", "pan-europeanism", "local-identity" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1759.24, "end": 1852.59, "time_label": "29:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And now Europeans are rebelling or revolting against that. Second thing that they don't like about Europe so far is the idea of federalism, okay? Or they can say bureaucratism. But it's the idea that a foreign power, Br..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1852.59, "end": 1947.8, "time_label": "30:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And my family. Does that make sense? Okay, it's imposing a foreign identity on me. And proponents of the European Union would argue that, no, this is just a secular, liberal idea, okay? The entire idea of the EU is that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says voters are rejecting secular liberalism because people seek structure, meaning, power, purpose, and the capacity to love, create, learn, and grow.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "temporal_scope": "Human motivation model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "human-heart", "secular-liberalism", "structure", "meaning" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1852.59, "end": 1947.8, "time_label": "30:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And my family. Does that make sense? Okay, it's imposing a foreign identity on me. And proponents of the European Union would argue that, no, this is just a secular, liberal idea, okay? The entire idea of the EU is that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says people rebel against abstract foreign authority because it destroys structure, meaning, purpose, agency, and the human heart.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "temporal_scope": "Human motivation model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "human-heart", "agency", "rebellion", "authority" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1947.98, "end": 2042.183, "time_label": "32:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That's what we are fundamentally as human beings. And when you ask me to obey an abstract foreign entity that is very far from me, then you are, like, not human. You are limiting or destroying the structure, meaning, an..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 2042.183, "end": 2135.46, "time_label": "34:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will want to kill, okay? And so, in other words, one idea in this AI model is that there is a fundamental underlying structure to human society, okay? If society conforms to the structure of the human heart, this soc..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says Dante and Homer would locate the source of rebellion and social order in the human heart.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretive claim stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "dante", "homer", "human-heart" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1947.98, "end": 2042.183, "time_label": "32:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That's what we are fundamentally as human beings. And when you ask me to obey an abstract foreign entity that is very far from me, then you are, like, not human. You are limiting or destroying the structure, meaning, an..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says societies prosper when they conform to the structure of the human heart and collapse when they repress it.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "temporal_scope": "General civilizational model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "human-heart", "collapse", "prosperity", "psychohistory" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 2042.183, "end": 2135.46, "time_label": "34:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will want to kill, okay? And so, in other words, one idea in this AI model is that there is a fundamental underlying structure to human society, okay? If society conforms to the structure of the human heart, this soc..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 2135.68, "end": 2211.92, "time_label": "35:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "For children? For pregnant women? Okay? When you go to the park, do people actually pick up garbage and throw it in the garbage bin, okay? Sequanticity tells us that there's cohesion and trust in society, that society i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He defines synchronicity as social willingness to follow rules, using traffic, subway seats, and public trash as examples of cohesion and trust.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "synchronicity", "social-trust", "rule-following" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 2042.183, "end": 2135.46, "time_label": "34:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will want to kill, okay? And so, in other words, one idea in this AI model is that there is a fundamental underlying structure to human society, okay? If society conforms to the structure of the human heart, this soc..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 2135.68, "end": 2211.92, "time_label": "35:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "For children? For pregnant women? Okay? When you go to the park, do people actually pick up garbage and throw it in the garbage bin, okay? Sequanticity tells us that there's cohesion and trust in society, that society i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He claims high-synchronicity societies such as Japan and Germany will do better over the long term than low-synchronicity societies such as India, Brazil, and China.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "temporal_scope": "General comparative model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "synchronicity", "japan", "germany", "china", "india", "brazil" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 2135.68, "end": 2211.92, "time_label": "35:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "For children? For pregnant women? Okay? When you go to the park, do people actually pick up garbage and throw it in the garbage bin, okay? Sequanticity tells us that there's cohesion and trust in society, that society i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says mass society is a historical accident requiring artificial elites, even though the elites are not actually better than ordinary people.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "temporal_scope": "Social model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "mass-society", "elite", "historical-accident" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2212.06, "end": 2310.6, "time_label": "36:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does it make sense? Any questions so far? Yeah, excuse me? Okay, that's a great question, okay? So one thing that was not supposed to happen is the idea of mass estás? You can say that mass society is a complete, what's..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He argues that elites maintain power by creating fictions of superiority such as elite degrees, IQ, or royal ancestry.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "temporal_scope": "Elite legitimation model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "elite-fiction", "legitimacy", "power" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2212.06, "end": 2310.6, "time_label": "36:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does it make sense? Any questions so far? Yeah, excuse me? Okay, that's a great question, okay? So one thing that was not supposed to happen is the idea of mass estás? You can say that mass society is a complete, what's..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2312.88, "end": 2370.415, "time_label": "38:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They need to create fictions. For example, maybe, well, I went to Yale or Harvard, and therefore, I should be at the top. Or maybe I have a higher IQ than you do. Or maybe my dad or my great -great -great -great -grandf..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says recent global economic, COVID, and war management shows elite incompetence, which forces elites toward lies, force, and repression to make people obedient.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "temporal_scope": "Diagnosis of contemporary politics stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "elite-incompetence", "covid", "war", "repression" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2312.88, "end": 2370.415, "time_label": "38:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They need to create fictions. For example, maybe, well, I went to Yale or Harvard, and therefore, I should be at the top. Or maybe I have a higher IQ than you do. Or maybe my dad or my great -great -great -great -grandf..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2370.415, "end": 2466.28, "time_label": "39:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's what's happening today. And so this repression can go on for a long time, but to control us, they must repress the human heart. Okay? Because it's in the human heart to want to question. To be curious...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says buying things can function as a distraction from questioning, thinking, and challenging elite incompetence.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "temporal_scope": "Diagnosis of repression stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "consumerism", "repression", "human-heart" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2370.415, "end": 2466.28, "time_label": "39:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's what's happening today. And so this repression can go on for a long time, but to control us, they must repress the human heart. Okay? Because it's in the human heart to want to question. To be curious...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Answering Sally, he says individual uniqueness and change do not negate shared fundamental desires for structure, meaning, purpose, love, creation, and growth.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "temporal_scope": "Human motivation model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "human-universals", "sally-question", "eudaimonia" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2370.415, "end": 2466.28, "time_label": "39:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's what's happening today. And so this repression can go on for a long time, but to control us, they must repress the human heart. Okay? Because it's in the human heart to want to question. To be curious...." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2466.62, "end": 2523.45, "time_label": "41:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's a great point. But what Homer and Dante would say that, no. No. No. No. No. At the fundamental level, okay, we all have the same desires. We're motivated by the same needs. Okay? There's no one in this..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2524.97, "end": 2557.65, "time_label": "42:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "When you achieve all three things, what do we call this? Eudaimonia. Right? This is eudaimonia. This is what the Greeks meant. By a happy. Happy. And self -fulfilled life. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? So, there may..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says constructing a valid psychohistory AI would require at least 50 to 100 years because the model must be repeatedly tested against predictions.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "temporal_scope": "Future project timeline stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "psychohistory", "ai", "validation", "timeline" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2571.87, "end": 2638.102, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So, Sally asked the question, like, how do you construct this? This AI. Okay? And so, for this AI to be valid, okay, let me explain how we would actually implement. Okay? So, first of all, you need at least 50 to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says his class has been a form of self-AI: analytical models generate predictions that cannot be fully validated until decades later.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "temporal_scope": "Reflection on the course stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "self-ai", "course-method", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2571.87, "end": 2638.102, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So, Sally asked the question, like, how do you construct this? This AI. Okay? And so, for this AI to be valid, okay, let me explain how we would actually implement. Okay? So, first of all, you need at least 50 to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says failed predictions require revising the predictions and analysis rather than keeping the model fixed.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035" ], "temporal_scope": "Method rule stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "model-revision", "validation", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2571.87, "end": 2638.102, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So, Sally asked the question, like, how do you construct this? This AI. Okay? And so, for this AI to be valid, okay, let me explain how we would actually implement. Okay? So, first of all, you need at least 50 to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2638.102, "end": 2701.21, "time_label": "43:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "If they're not correct, what you have to do is go away. You have to change these predictions, okay? And analysis. Okay? Does that make sense? Then what you have to do is you basically have to, and this is actually what'..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says building psychohistory also requires rewriting history because much accepted history is not correct.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "temporal_scope": "Method claim stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "history", "revision", "psychohistory" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2638.102, "end": 2701.21, "time_label": "43:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "If they're not correct, what you have to do is go away. You have to change these predictions, okay? And analysis. Okay? Does that make sense? Then what you have to do is you basically have to, and this is actually what'..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2701.21, "end": 2773.7, "time_label": "45:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But also going back to throughout history and seeing how history can be revamped or changed so that it's more accurate. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? That's a project. But now, but then there's the technology. Becau..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2773.7, "end": 2838.01, "time_label": "46:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "one thing that you notice in this class, it's like we tend to repeat the same mistakes. Right? The question is like, why do we do that? It's because the history that we have is complete bullshit. It just is. It's not tr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says historians, mathematicians, and programmers must collaborate because computers require numbers, equations, and models rather than ideas alone.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0036" ], "temporal_scope": "Project requirement stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "collaboration", "mathematics", "programming", "history" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2701.21, "end": 2773.7, "time_label": "45:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But also going back to throughout history and seeing how history can be revamped or changed so that it's more accurate. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? That's a project. But now, but then there's the technology. Becau..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He argues that if psychohistory works, it would change the fate of humanity forever by helping humanity stop repeating the same historical mistakes.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "temporal_scope": "Conditional future claim stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "psychohistory", "humanity", "repetition" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2701.21, "end": 2773.7, "time_label": "45:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But also going back to throughout history and seeing how history can be revamped or changed so that it's more accurate. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? That's a project. But now, but then there's the technology. Becau..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2773.7, "end": 2838.01, "time_label": "46:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "one thing that you notice in this class, it's like we tend to repeat the same mistakes. Right? The question is like, why do we do that? It's because the history that we have is complete bullshit. It just is. It's not tr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He presents the rise of Christianity as an example where he distrusts conventional history and finds Roman imperial co-option a more plausible explanation.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical reinterpretation offered on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "christianity", "roman-empire", "historical-revision" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2773.7, "end": 2838.01, "time_label": "46:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "one thing that you notice in this class, it's like we tend to repeat the same mistakes. Right? The question is like, why do we do that? It's because the history that we have is complete bullshit. It just is. It's not tr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Answering Eric, he says the edge cases for psychohistory are great men who appear from outside normal forces and change history.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039" ], "temporal_scope": "Model limitation stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "edge-case", "great-man-theory", "history" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2839.14, "end": 2925.561, "time_label": "47:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right? Any more questions? Yeah, Eric? Excuse me? Oh, so Eric asked a great question. Will this psychohistory model encounter edge cases? And the answer is, that's the best question. Okay? That's a great question. And t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2925.561, "end": 2995.22, "time_label": "48:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They can step outside of history and control history. That's what great men are. So, how does your model account for that? Okay? And the answer is, you cannot. So, in foundation, okay, the solution, okay, but there is a..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says the second foundation solves psychohistory's edge-case problem by placing specialists behind the AI to observe history and correct the model.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "temporal_scope": "Model extension stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "second-foundation", "edge-case", "model-correction" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2925.561, "end": 2995.22, "time_label": "48:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They can step outside of history and control history. That's what great men are. So, how does your model account for that? Okay? And the answer is, you cannot. So, in foundation, okay, the solution, okay, but there is a..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2995.25, "end": 3072.7, "time_label": "49:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "specialists who observe the AI and who observe history and who correct the AI for edge cases. Okay? Does that make sense? So, Putin appears and is like, okay, well, clearly, I'm not accounting for Putin. Well, then I ch..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says psychohistory contains not only a promise of future prediction but also a promise that unrealized capacities of the human mind might be developed.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "temporal_scope": "Speculative model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "psychohistory", "telepathy", "human-potential" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2995.25, "end": 3072.7, "time_label": "49:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "specialists who observe the AI and who observe history and who correct the AI for edge cases. Okay? Does that make sense? So, Putin appears and is like, okay, well, clearly, I'm not accounting for Putin. Well, then I ch..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang speculates that historical edge cases or great men can be understood as telepaths who can read and control minds.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "temporal_scope": "Speculative model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "telepathy", "great-men", "edge-case" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 3073.12, "end": 3137.938, "time_label": "51:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I think yes. And the answer is that you can make the argument that these edge cases that Eric refers to, these great men of history, they're actually telepaths. Okay? Does that make sense? They're actually telepaths. So..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3137.938, "end": 3219.92, "time_label": "52:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And is it possible that in the future we'll have more telepaths? And we can, over time, harness the power of these telepaths to create the second foundation and to control psychohistory? Possibly. Right? Okay? Because,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He uses Putin as an example of someone who, without special elite background, amassed enough power that Russia moves according to his command.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041" ], "temporal_scope": "Contemporary example stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "putin", "russia", "great-men", "telepathy" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 3073.12, "end": 3137.938, "time_label": "51:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I think yes. And the answer is that you can make the argument that these edge cases that Eric refers to, these great men of history, they're actually telepaths. Okay? Does that make sense? They're actually telepaths. So..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says Homer and Dante can only be explained as figures with God-given gifts, perhaps speaking for God, because they stepped outside history and directed it.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretive claim stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "homer", "dante", "great-men", "god-given-gifts" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3137.938, "end": 3219.92, "time_label": "52:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And is it possible that in the future we'll have more telepaths? And we can, over time, harness the power of these telepaths to create the second foundation and to control psychohistory? Possibly. Right? Okay? Because,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Answering Celine, he says love, learning, and creation can be modeled through agency, freedom, social interaction, and compassion.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "temporal_scope": "Model component stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "agency", "freedom", "social-interaction", "compassion" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3220.04, "end": 3300.8, "time_label": "53:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Okay. How do you model love, learn, and create? Okay? And the answer is that there has to be a certain amount of autonomy or agency in the lives of people. Does that make sense? What we call freedom and liberty. B..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3301.68, "end": 3369.87, "time_label": "55:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And the last thing is you also have to model in the idea of compassion. Okay? So the idea here is that if I all put you on an island together. Okay? And you must survive. Well, you will become compassionate with e..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says human powers are relational: people cannot love themselves, create by themselves, or learn only from themselves.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043" ], "temporal_scope": "Human motivation model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "relationality", "love", "creation", "learning" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3220.04, "end": 3300.8, "time_label": "53:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Okay. How do you model love, learn, and create? Okay? And the answer is that there has to be a certain amount of autonomy or agency in the lives of people. Does that make sense? What we call freedom and liberty. B..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says social arrangements shape compassion: shared survival can produce cooperation, while competitive money incentives can make people hate each other.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "temporal_scope": "Social model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "compassion", "competition", "cooperation" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3301.68, "end": 3369.87, "time_label": "55:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And the last thing is you also have to model in the idea of compassion. Okay? So the idea here is that if I all put you on an island together. Okay? And you must survive. Well, you will become compassionate with e..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He distinguishes social science, which tries to mathematize what drives people, from literature, which expresses truths that cannot be mathematically quantified.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "temporal_scope": "Method distinction stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "social-science", "literature", "human-truth" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3370.17, "end": 3485.1, "time_label": "56:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does that make sense? Actually, guys, we have all these theories. It's just like no one is turning this into a mathematical model. Okay? For society. Any more questions? Yeah? Yeah. So Eric asked the question, is..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3485.28, "end": 3573.58, "time_label": "58:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Prime sneaks into Achilles' tent. And kisses his hand. Right? That moment. You can never mathematically express it. You can only write about it. But think about how much truth and power is in that one scene. Okay? Do..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He uses Priam kissing Achilles' hand for Hector's body as an example of human truth that cannot be mathematically expressed but can be written.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "temporal_scope": "Literary example stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "iliad", "priam", "achilles", "literature" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3370.17, "end": 3485.1, "time_label": "56:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does that make sense? Actually, guys, we have all these theories. It's just like no one is turning this into a mathematical model. Okay? For society. Any more questions? Yeah? Yeah. So Eric asked the question, is..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3485.28, "end": 3573.58, "time_label": "58:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Prime sneaks into Achilles' tent. And kisses his hand. Right? That moment. You can never mathematically express it. You can only write about it. But think about how much truth and power is in that one scene. Okay? Do..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says Dante makes explicit that humans are driven by love and the willingness to imagine, and that any AI model must treat those as underlying truths.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretive model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "dante", "love", "imagination", "ai-model" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3485.28, "end": 3573.58, "time_label": "58:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Prime sneaks into Achilles' tent. And kisses his hand. Right? That moment. You can never mathematically express it. You can only write about it. But think about how much truth and power is in that one scene. Okay? Do..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Answering Celine, he says love and hate are one force, and creation and destruction are one force; if love or creation cannot express itself, hate and destruction will.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "temporal_scope": "Human motivation model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "love-hate", "creation-destruction", "repression", "rebellion" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3485.28, "end": 3573.58, "time_label": "58:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Prime sneaks into Achilles' tent. And kisses his hand. Right? That moment. You can never mathematically express it. You can only write about it. But think about how much truth and power is in that one scene. Okay? Do..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 3574.12, "end": 3646.028, "time_label": "59:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the answer is that love and hate are one force. You understand? If I can't love you, I'm going to hate you. You understand? Okay? Guess what, guys? Creation and destruction. Destruction is one force as well. If I ca..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3646.028, "end": 3740.08, "time_label": "1:00:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But within each of these things is another force. And if love can't be satisfied. Love can't express itself. Then hate will express itself. Does that make sense? Okay? All right. Any more questions? Yeah? So Sally asked..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says centralized elites turn people into slaves, blocking love, creation, learning, and growth, which produces rebellion and social destruction.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047" ], "temporal_scope": "Collapse model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "elite-centralization", "slavery", "rebellion", "collapse" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 3574.12, "end": 3646.028, "time_label": "59:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the answer is that love and hate are one force. You understand? If I can't love you, I'm going to hate you. You understand? Okay? Guess what, guys? Creation and destruction. Destruction is one force as well. If I ca..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the psychohistory AI must be part of a democratic system where everyone is involved, otherwise it can only be abused.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "temporal_scope": "Governance model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "ai-governance", "democracy", "abuse" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3741.21, "end": 3807.46, "time_label": "1:02:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it will give you different scenarios. And we can all agree on which scenario we want. And therefore, we can agree on what action to take. Okay? So, this AI has to be part of a democratic system where everyone is inv..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says the AI should generate scenarios for shared problems like climate change and war so people can agree on actions and stick together.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "temporal_scope": "Governance model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "scenario-planning", "climate-change", "war", "collective-action" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3741.21, "end": 3807.46, "time_label": "1:02:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it will give you different scenarios. And we can all agree on which scenario we want. And therefore, we can agree on what action to take. Okay? So, this AI has to be part of a democratic system where everyone is inv..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3807.66, "end": 3875.45, "time_label": "1:03:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right? The United States attacks Iran, then this will happen. And that becomes a very powerful argument for correct and proper behavior. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. But again, guys, this is just conjecture. O..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says a psychohistory AI could warn that if the United States intervenes in Ukraine or attacks Iran, specific consequences will follow, making proper behavior more compelling.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "temporal_scope": "Hypothetical example stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "ukraine", "iran", "scenario-planning", "proper-behavior" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3741.21, "end": 3807.46, "time_label": "1:02:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it will give you different scenarios. And we can all agree on which scenario we want. And therefore, we can agree on what action to take. Okay? So, this AI has to be part of a democratic system where everyone is inv..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3807.66, "end": 3875.45, "time_label": "1:03:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right? The United States attacks Iran, then this will happen. And that becomes a very powerful argument for correct and proper behavior. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. But again, guys, this is just conjecture. O..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He warns that the project is conjectural, would take 50 to 100 years, and would face opposition from historians and elites.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "temporal_scope": "Project timeline and risk stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "psychohistory", "opposition", "timeline", "elite" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3807.66, "end": 3875.45, "time_label": "1:03:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right? The United States attacks Iran, then this will happen. And that becomes a very powerful argument for correct and proper behavior. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. But again, guys, this is just conjecture. O..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says collapse may create the social space needed for psychohistory, just as Homer and Dante wrote when their societies had collapsed.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "temporal_scope": "Conditional model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "collapse", "homer", "dante", "psychohistory" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3807.66, "end": 3875.45, "time_label": "1:03:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right? The United States attacks Iran, then this will happen. And that becomes a very powerful argument for correct and proper behavior. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. But again, guys, this is just conjecture. O..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3877.93, "end": 3949.789, "time_label": "1:04:37", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, if it is true, if my predictions are correct and society is approaching collapse, then there should be a lot of space and leeway and flexibility to create this AI. Okay? Okay. Any more questions? Yeah? That's a grea..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says different nations currently want different hegemonic outcomes: America wants American hegemony, Putin wants Russian hegemony, and China wants Chinese hegemony.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "temporal_scope": "Contemporary diagnosis stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "hegemony", "america", "russia", "china" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3877.93, "end": 3949.789, "time_label": "1:04:37", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, if it is true, if my predictions are correct and society is approaching collapse, then there should be a lot of space and leeway and flexibility to create this AI. Okay? Okay. Any more questions? Yeah? That's a grea..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He predicts that today's unsustainable structure will collapse and humanity will transition from about 8 billion people to about 1 billion people amid food scarcity, pollution, and war.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "temporal_scope": "Future collapse prediction stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "collapse", "population", "pollution", "war" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3877.93, "end": 3949.789, "time_label": "1:04:37", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, if it is true, if my predictions are correct and society is approaching collapse, then there should be a lot of space and leeway and flexibility to create this AI. Okay? Okay. Any more questions? Yeah? That's a grea..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says after collapse, humans may become united by the goal of recreating civilization in a more progressive, democratic, and prosperous way.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "temporal_scope": "Conditional future model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "civilization", "collapse", "democracy", "rebuilding" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 3949.789, "end": 4029.82, "time_label": "1:05:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Humans are united in their goals, which is basically how do we create a better civilization. Okay? Does that make sense? When all society has collapsed, everyone's like, how do we recreate civilization? That's the goal...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says the AI can work only if it steps outside history and human interests, speaking for all humanity rather than one nation or group.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "temporal_scope": "Governance condition stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "ai-governance", "humanity", "neutrality", "history" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 3949.789, "end": 4029.82, "time_label": "1:05:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Humans are united in their goals, which is basically how do we create a better civilization. Okay? Does that make sense? When all society has collapsed, everyone's like, how do we recreate civilization? That's the goal...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says the year proved students can grow through difficult Great Books and geopolitics work, and that this growth gives him hope that hard work can improve the world.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0055" ], "temporal_scope": "Course reflection stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "education", "great-books", "student-growth", "hope" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 4029.96, "end": 4105.62, "time_label": "1:07:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? In the first semester, we read the great books. And I was blown away by how much you guys enjoyed the great books. And how much you benefit from reading the great books. Okay? And quite honestly, I don't think any..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 4105.84, "end": 4186.81, "time_label": "1:08:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You guys are asking great questions. Okay? So, thank you again. Because you don't have to work hard in this course. But you chose to work hard. And this is going to carry you very far in life. Okay? So, the course has c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 4186.81, "end": 4253.52, "time_label": "1:09:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "do you have to believe in a better world, you have to imagine and to fight for it. Because you have to leave behind a legacy for your children. Okay? So, why I teach this course is to bring you a message of hope. Okay?..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says he teaches high school in China because, as a father, he has to believe in, imagine, and fight for a better world as a legacy for his children.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0055" ], "temporal_scope": "Personal motivation stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "teaching", "fatherhood", "legacy", "hope" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 4105.84, "end": 4186.81, "time_label": "1:08:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You guys are asking great questions. Okay? So, thank you again. Because you don't have to work hard in this course. But you chose to work hard. And this is going to carry you very far in life. Okay? So, the course has c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 4186.81, "end": 4253.52, "time_label": "1:09:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "do you have to believe in a better world, you have to imagine and to fight for it. Because you have to leave behind a legacy for your children. Okay? So, why I teach this course is to bring you a message of hope. Okay?..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He closes by telling students that psychohistory requires many people working together and may be something they return to later in life.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "temporal_scope": "Closing invitation stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "psychohistory", "collaboration", "future" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 4253.86, "end": 4287.16, "time_label": "1:10:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And maybe at some point, we can share this dream of psychohistory. You know? I know it sounds very complicated. It's very abstract. But to make this work, you need a lot of people working together. Okay? And it's someth..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "signature_moments": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0002" ], "moment": "The final class turns from 'we are all going to die' into a demand that the future be imagined and fought for.", "source_phrase": "The future is what you imagine and fight for. The future is what you make happen.", "why_it_matters": "This is the lecture's governing reversal: prophecy becomes obligation rather than fatalism.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.75, "end": 85.61, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, well, this is it. The end of the journey, the final class. So, we've done a lot this year, right? Last semester, we did the great books, the Iliad, the Odyssey, the Bible, Republic, Divine Comedy. This semester, w..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 85.63, "end": 144.86, "time_label": "1:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it's these two things that will guide us and enable us to build a better world. Okay? So, that's the message I want to give to you today. The future is what we imagine, not what we have to put up with. So, if we don..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "moment": "Psychohistory appears as hope and light inside the darkest picture of collapse.", "source_phrase": "where there is darkness, there can also be light", "why_it_matters": "It preserves the emotional hinge between collapse analysis and constructive future-making.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 145.48, "end": 228.44, "time_label": "2:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the deaths of millions and billions of people. And because of climate change, our world will eventually collapse at some point. Okay? So, this is an extremely hopeless and extremely bleak and dark picture of the wor..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0007" ], "moment": "Power is treated as a finite classroom position: if everyone is teacher, no one is teacher.", "source_phrase": "If we're all teachers, there's no teacher.", "why_it_matters": "The classroom image compresses the zero-sum elite-overproduction model into a memorable scene.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 393.04, "end": 475.58, "time_label": "6:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it's a really interesting idea. Is the reason why societies collapse in the end. Is you have too many elites. All right? So, let me explain the concept. Okay. So, society has many elites. Right? You have people like..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 475.9, "end": 552.49, "time_label": "7:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "If everyone has the power, no one has any power. Okay? So, what happens over time is that all these people who believe they have power. They should have power. Struggle for power. And because there are too many of them,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "moment": "AI is proposed as the missing jump from analyzing collapsed societies to predicting the future.", "source_phrase": "not just analyze the past, but to predict the future", "why_it_matters": "This is the lecture's first explicit bridge from historical diagnosis to psychohistorical technology.", "tone": "method", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 552.71, "end": 629.98, "time_label": "9:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Because he failed the Kejiu. Okay? So, that's the idea of the overproduction of the elite. And he discovered this principle using mathematically modeling of history. Okay? He just compared different societies and tried..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "moment": "Machine learning flips output into input so the machine can refine the rule humans cannot write well enough.", "source_phrase": "I will turn the output into the input.", "why_it_matters": "It gives the public read a compact way to state his AI model without losing the mechanism.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 700.47, "end": 779.65, "time_label": "11:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That's how computers work. Right? Now, supervised machine learning is that. I will turn the output into the input. Okay? And the reason why I want to do that is that as a human being, I myself may not be able to write t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ], "moment": "AI is stripped of mystique and called infinite iteration.", "source_phrase": "what all AI is is infinite iteration", "why_it_matters": "This phrase anchors Jiang's anti-mystical account of AI as repetitive optimization.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 915.32, "end": 989.07, "time_label": "15:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "this is wrong and what the computer then does is we find this model until it becomes this doesn't make sense okay so what this what all AI is is infinite iteration okay it doesn't make sense all right okay so the proble..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "moment": "The unsolvable self-driving edge case is not traffic but a human deciding to crash into the machine.", "source_phrase": "if I, as a human being, intentionally want to crash into that car", "why_it_matters": "It introduces intentional human agency as the limit case for algorithmic prediction.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1162.21, "end": 1249.85, "time_label": "19:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, the answer no is, whatever I do, okay, I cannot solve something called the edge case. The edge case is, if the car is on the road, what could happen that would screw up my AI system? You guys know? Why can't self..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017" ], "moment": "AI is called a scam when it is mistaken for self-aware intelligence.", "source_phrase": "AI is a scam, okay? It does not exist.", "why_it_matters": "This keeps Jiang's deflationary tone and distinguishes his practical AI project from AI mysticism.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1250.09, "end": 1315.08, "time_label": "20:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But in a situation where I'm the human being, and I don't like self -driving cars because I'm a taxi driver, and it's stealing my job, right? It's stealing my livelihood, and I want to crash into that car. There's no wa..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "moment": "Psychohistory is built by stacking models until prediction becomes a discipline.", "source_phrase": "once you start putting all these models together", "why_it_matters": "It captures his mechanism for moving from one prediction to a general science.", "tone": "method", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1492.18, "end": 1578.57, "time_label": "24:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now that we have the AI model, what we need to do now is to refine it. And the way we refine it is by going back in history and looking at every single war that started. Does that make sense? You take this model and you..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "moment": "The revolt against abstract liberalism is recast as a demand to be human.", "source_phrase": "we don't want secular liberalism because we want to be human", "why_it_matters": "This phrase carries the lecture's move from electoral politics to anthropology.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1852.59, "end": 1947.8, "time_label": "30:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And my family. Does that make sense? Okay, it's imposing a foreign identity on me. And proponents of the European Union would argue that, no, this is just a secular, liberal idea, okay? The entire idea of the EU is that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "moment": "Human motivation is compressed into structure, meaning, power, purpose, and the capacity to love, create, learn, and grow.", "source_phrase": "structure, meaning, and power. And purpose", "why_it_matters": "This becomes one of the lecture's major candidate primitives for the psychohistory model.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1852.59, "end": 1947.8, "time_label": "30:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And my family. Does that make sense? Okay, it's imposing a foreign identity on me. And proponents of the European Union would argue that, no, this is just a secular, liberal idea, okay? The entire idea of the EU is that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025" ], "moment": "If the human heart cannot be fulfilled, rebellion turns into destruction and killing.", "source_phrase": "if we cannot fulfill our human heart, we will rebel. We will destroy. We will want to kill", "why_it_matters": "It gives the collapse model its emotional engine rather than only institutional mechanics.", "tone": "causal-chain", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1947.98, "end": 2042.183, "time_label": "32:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That's what we are fundamentally as human beings. And when you ask me to obey an abstract foreign entity that is very far from me, then you are, like, not human. You are limiting or destroying the structure, meaning, an..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "moment": "Mass society requires artificial elites, but the people in charge are not actually better.", "source_phrase": "we could swap for the leadership of the world, and guys, nothing would change", "why_it_matters": "This is the populist premise behind the later account of elite fictions and repression.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2212.06, "end": 2310.6, "time_label": "36:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does it make sense? Any questions so far? Yeah, excuse me? Okay, that's a great question, okay? So one thing that was not supposed to happen is the idea of mass estás? You can say that mass society is a complete, what's..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "moment": "Elite legitimacy decays into fictions, then lies, force, and obedience.", "source_phrase": "They need to create fictions", "why_it_matters": "This phrase crystallizes the route from artificial authority to repression.", "tone": "causal-chain", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2312.88, "end": 2370.415, "time_label": "38:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They need to create fictions. For example, maybe, well, I went to Yale or Harvard, and therefore, I should be at the top. Or maybe I have a higher IQ than you do. Or maybe my dad or my great -great -great -great -grandf..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2370.415, "end": 2466.28, "time_label": "39:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's what's happening today. And so this repression can go on for a long time, but to control us, they must repress the human heart. Okay? Because it's in the human heart to want to question. To be curious...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "moment": "Eudaimonia is the name for achieving love, creation, learning, growth, and self-fulfillment.", "source_phrase": "When you achieve all three things, what do we call this? Eudaimonia.", "why_it_matters": "It ties the AI model back to the Great Books vocabulary of fulfilled life.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2466.62, "end": 2523.45, "time_label": "41:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's a great point. But what Homer and Dante would say that, no. No. No. No. No. At the fundamental level, okay, we all have the same desires. We're motivated by the same needs. Okay? There's no one in this..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2524.97, "end": 2557.65, "time_label": "42:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "When you achieve all three things, what do we call this? Eudaimonia. Right? This is eudaimonia. This is what the Greeks meant. By a happy. Happy. And self -fulfilled life. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? So, there may..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "moment": "The class itself becomes a self-AI: model, prediction, and delayed validation.", "source_phrase": "what I've been doing in this class is basically doing a self-AI", "why_it_matters": "It turns the course into a prototype of the psychohistory project.", "tone": "method", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2571.87, "end": 2638.102, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So, Sally asked the question, like, how do you construct this? This AI. Okay? And so, for this AI to be valid, okay, let me explain how we would actually implement. Okay? So, first of all, you need at least 50 to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "moment": "Predicting the future requires correcting the past.", "source_phrase": "not only are you trying to predict the future, but you're trying to also correct the past", "why_it_matters": "This is one of the lecture's strangest and most important reversals about historical method.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2638.102, "end": 2701.21, "time_label": "43:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "If they're not correct, what you have to do is go away. You have to change these predictions, okay? And analysis. Okay? Does that make sense? Then what you have to do is you basically have to, and this is actually what'..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2773.7, "end": 2838.01, "time_label": "46:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "one thing that you notice in this class, it's like we tend to repeat the same mistakes. Right? The question is like, why do we do that? It's because the history that we have is complete bullshit. It just is. It's not tr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039" ], "moment": "Great men are the edge cases of history because they step outside history and control it.", "source_phrase": "They're beyond history. They can step outside of history and control history.", "why_it_matters": "It extends the self-driving-car edge case into a full historical theory.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2839.14, "end": 2925.561, "time_label": "47:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right? Any more questions? Yeah, Eric? Excuse me? Oh, so Eric asked a great question. Will this psychohistory model encounter edge cases? And the answer is, that's the best question. Okay? That's a great question. And t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2925.561, "end": 2995.22, "time_label": "48:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They can step outside of history and control history. That's what great men are. So, how does your model account for that? Okay? And the answer is, you cannot. So, in foundation, okay, the solution, okay, but there is a..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "moment": "The second foundation is the team behind the machine, watching history and correcting the equations when Putin appears.", "source_phrase": "Putin appears and is like, okay, well, clearly, I'm not accounting for Putin.", "why_it_matters": "This gives the abstract model-correction problem a concrete image.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2995.25, "end": 3072.7, "time_label": "49:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "specialists who observe the AI and who observe history and who correct the AI for edge cases. Okay? Does that make sense? So, Putin appears and is like, okay, well, clearly, I'm not accounting for Putin. Well, then I ch..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041" ], "moment": "Putin is treated as almost a telepath because Russia moves the way he wants it to move.", "source_phrase": "Putin is almost a telepath", "why_it_matters": "This is the lecture's boldest great-man image and should survive the public read if possible.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 3073.12, "end": 3137.938, "time_label": "51:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I think yes. And the answer is that you can make the argument that these edge cases that Eric refers to, these great men of history, they're actually telepaths. Okay? Does that make sense? They're actually telepaths. So..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043" ], "moment": "Love, creation, and learning require other people.", "source_phrase": "You can't love yourself. You have to love someone else. You can't create by yourself.", "why_it_matters": "It gives the human-heart model a relational structure rather than an individualist one.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3220.04, "end": 3300.8, "time_label": "53:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Okay. How do you model love, learn, and create? Okay? And the answer is that there has to be a certain amount of autonomy or agency in the lives of people. Does that make sense? What we call freedom and liberty. B..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "moment": "An island teaches compassion; a bank with Ferrari incentives teaches hatred.", "source_phrase": "if I put you guys into a bank", "why_it_matters": "This vivid contrast shows how institutional design redirects human drives.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3301.68, "end": 3369.87, "time_label": "55:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And the last thing is you also have to model in the idea of compassion. Okay? So the idea here is that if I all put you on an island together. Okay? And you must survive. Well, you will become compassionate with e..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "moment": "Priam kissing Achilles' hand carries a truth no equation can hold.", "source_phrase": "You can never mathematically express it. You can only write about it.", "why_it_matters": "It preserves the lecture's counterweight to mathematized psychohistory: literature knows what models cannot.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3485.28, "end": 3573.58, "time_label": "58:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Prime sneaks into Achilles' tent. And kisses his hand. Right? That moment. You can never mathematically express it. You can only write about it. But think about how much truth and power is in that one scene. Okay? Do..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "moment": "Blocked love becomes hate; blocked creation becomes destruction.", "source_phrase": "love and hate are one force", "why_it_matters": "This is the sharp causal chain that explains why repression turns into collapse.", "tone": "causal-chain", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 3574.12, "end": 3646.028, "time_label": "59:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the answer is that love and hate are one force. You understand? If I can't love you, I'm going to hate you. You understand? Okay? Guess what, guys? Creation and destruction. Destruction is one force as well. If I ca..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3646.028, "end": 3740.08, "time_label": "1:00:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But within each of these things is another force. And if love can't be satisfied. Love can't express itself. Then hate will express itself. Does that make sense? Okay? All right. Any more questions? Yeah? So Sally asked..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "moment": "The AI must be democratic or it becomes another tool of oppression.", "source_phrase": "this AI has to be part of a democratic system", "why_it_matters": "It is the governance condition that keeps psychohistory from becoming elite domination.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3741.21, "end": 3807.46, "time_label": "1:02:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it will give you different scenarios. And we can all agree on which scenario we want. And therefore, we can agree on what action to take. Okay? So, this AI has to be part of a democratic system where everyone is inv..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "moment": "The AI has to step outside history and speak for all humanity.", "source_phrase": "steps outside of history and steps outside of human interests", "why_it_matters": "This is the lecture's impossible standard for a non-factional predictive machine.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 3949.789, "end": 4029.82, "time_label": "1:05:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Humans are united in their goals, which is basically how do we create a better civilization. Okay? Does that make sense? When all society has collapsed, everyone's like, how do we recreate civilization? That's the goal...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0055" ], "moment": "Teaching becomes a father's wager that imagination and hard work can make a better world.", "source_phrase": "you have to imagine and to fight for it", "why_it_matters": "The closing returns the technical dream to the personal moral reason for the course.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 4186.81, "end": 4253.52, "time_label": "1:09:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "do you have to believe in a better world, you have to imagine and to fight for it. Because you have to leave behind a legacy for your children. Okay? So, why I teach this course is to bring you a message of hope. Okay?..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "moment": "The dream of psychohistory is deferred into the students' future lives.", "source_phrase": "maybe at some point, we can share this dream of psychohistory", "why_it_matters": "It gives the public episode a closing image of collaboration beyond the classroom.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 4253.86, "end": 4287.16, "time_label": "1:10:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And maybe at some point, we can share this dream of psychohistory. You know? I know it sounds very complicated. It's very abstract. But to make this work, you need a lot of people working together. Okay? And it's someth..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "predictions": [ { "claim": "He reprises earlier course predictions that Trump will be elected again in November, declare war on Iran, end the American Empire, and produce a multipolar world of endless war.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking prediction as of 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "iran", "american-empire", "multipolarity" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 85.63, "end": 144.86, "time_label": "1:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it's these two things that will guide us and enable us to build a better world. Okay? So, that's the message I want to give to you today. The future is what we imagine, not what we have to put up with. So, if we don..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 145.48, "end": 228.44, "time_label": "2:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the deaths of millions and billions of people. And because of climate change, our world will eventually collapse at some point. Okay? So, this is an extremely hopeless and extremely bleak and dark picture of the wor..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He predicts that the United States will go to war with Iran, with Trump as president seeking the war to cement his position.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "temporal_scope": "Forward-looking prediction as of 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "trump", "iran", "war" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1392.53, "end": 1489.46, "time_label": "23:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for example remember what we remember my predictions the issue a lobby, Saudi Arabia and the American Empire, basically the need to protect the petrodollar, will force America to go to war with Iran. These are the push..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He predicts the European Union could be dead in about five years because voters reject a foreign pan-European identity imposed over local identities and relationships.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "temporal_scope": "Five-year prediction from 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "european-union", "pan-europeanism", "local-identity" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1759.24, "end": 1852.59, "time_label": "29:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And now Europeans are rebelling or revolting against that. Second thing that they don't like about Europe so far is the idea of federalism, okay? Or they can say bureaucratism. But it's the idea that a foreign power, Br..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1852.59, "end": 1947.8, "time_label": "30:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And my family. Does that make sense? Okay, it's imposing a foreign identity on me. And proponents of the European Union would argue that, no, this is just a secular, liberal idea, okay? The entire idea of the EU is that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says constructing a valid psychohistory AI would require at least 50 to 100 years because the model must be repeatedly tested against predictions.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "temporal_scope": "Future project timeline stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "psychohistory", "ai", "validation", "timeline" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2571.87, "end": 2638.102, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So, Sally asked the question, like, how do you construct this? This AI. Okay? And so, for this AI to be valid, okay, let me explain how we would actually implement. Okay? So, first of all, you need at least 50 to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He argues that if psychohistory works, it would change the fate of humanity forever by helping humanity stop repeating the same historical mistakes.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "temporal_scope": "Conditional future claim stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "psychohistory", "humanity", "repetition" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2701.21, "end": 2773.7, "time_label": "45:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But also going back to throughout history and seeing how history can be revamped or changed so that it's more accurate. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? That's a project. But now, but then there's the technology. Becau..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2773.7, "end": 2838.01, "time_label": "46:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "one thing that you notice in this class, it's like we tend to repeat the same mistakes. Right? The question is like, why do we do that? It's because the history that we have is complete bullshit. It just is. It's not tr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He warns that the project is conjectural, would take 50 to 100 years, and would face opposition from historians and elites.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "temporal_scope": "Project timeline and risk stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "psychohistory", "opposition", "timeline", "elite" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3807.66, "end": 3875.45, "time_label": "1:03:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right? The United States attacks Iran, then this will happen. And that becomes a very powerful argument for correct and proper behavior. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. But again, guys, this is just conjecture. O..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He predicts that today's unsustainable structure will collapse and humanity will transition from about 8 billion people to about 1 billion people amid food scarcity, pollution, and war.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "temporal_scope": "Future collapse prediction stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "collapse", "population", "pollution", "war" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3877.93, "end": 3949.789, "time_label": "1:04:37", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, if it is true, if my predictions are correct and society is approaching collapse, then there should be a lot of space and leeway and flexibility to create this AI. Okay? Okay. Any more questions? Yeah? That's a grea..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says after collapse, humans may become united by the goal of recreating civilization in a more progressive, democratic, and prosperous way.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "temporal_scope": "Conditional future model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "civilization", "collapse", "democracy", "rebuilding" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 3949.789, "end": 4029.82, "time_label": "1:05:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Humans are united in their goals, which is basically how do we create a better civilization. Okay? Does that make sense? When all society has collapsed, everyone's like, how do we recreate civilization? That's the goal...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "models": [ { "claim": "He says Asimov's Foundation imagines mathematical mapping of human behavior across immense time scales in order to manipulate events toward a better future.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretation of Foundation stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "asimov", "foundation", "psychohistory" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 228.94, "end": 305.96, "time_label": "3:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "It's terrible, but you can have a look at it. And in the Foundation books, he introduces the idea of psychohistory. And so, this book is set in the future, like a million years from now. Where there is a galactic empire..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He presents cliodynamics as an attempt to turn history into a mathematical model and cites elite overproduction as a pattern explaining social collapse.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "temporal_scope": "Model summary stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "cliodynamics", "elite-overproduction", "collapse" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 306.1, "end": 393.04, "time_label": "5:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, this is what he called psychohistory. And it's a science fiction concept. And a lot of people have been trying to make it into reality. Okay? So, there's this very prominent historian. His name is Peter Turkin..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 393.04, "end": 475.58, "time_label": "6:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it's a really interesting idea. Is the reason why societies collapse in the end. Is you have too many elites. All right? So, let me explain the concept. Okay. So, society has many elites. Right? You have people like..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He argues that wealth and fame can expand, but power is finite and zero-sum, so too many elites competing for power drive social collapse.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "temporal_scope": "General collapse model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "power", "zero-sum", "elite-conflict", "collapse" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 393.04, "end": 475.58, "time_label": "6:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it's a really interesting idea. Is the reason why societies collapse in the end. Is you have too many elites. All right? So, let me explain the concept. Okay. So, society has many elites. Right? You have people like..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 475.9, "end": 552.49, "time_label": "7:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "If everyone has the power, no one has any power. Okay? So, what happens over time is that all these people who believe they have power. They should have power. Struggle for power. And because there are too many of them,..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 552.71, "end": 629.98, "time_label": "9:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Because he failed the Kejiu. Okay? So, that's the idea of the overproduction of the elite. And he discovered this principle using mathematically modeling of history. Okay? He just compared different societies and tried..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He proposes using AI to go beyond cliodynamics by creating real psychohistory: a system able to analyze the past and predict the future.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "temporal_scope": "Project proposal stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "ai", "cliodynamics", "psychohistory" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 552.71, "end": 629.98, "time_label": "9:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Because he failed the Kejiu. Okay? So, that's the idea of the overproduction of the elite. And he discovered this principle using mathematically modeling of history. Okay? He just compared different societies and tried..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He argues that usable AI requires clear metrics or outputs, clean data, and a working algorithm structure.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015" ], "temporal_scope": "Technical model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "ai-requirements", "data", "metrics", "algorithm" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 915.32, "end": 989.07, "time_label": "15:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "this is wrong and what the computer then does is we find this model until it becomes this doesn't make sense okay so what this what all AI is is infinite iteration okay it doesn't make sense all right okay so the proble..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 989.07, "end": 1064.61, "time_label": "16:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "need to solve then is data okay for input but the thing about data is that it has to be cleaner than the score the okay does that make sense it has to be a clean data okay so for example if I want to teach this AI to re..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1064.61, "end": 1160.3, "time_label": "17:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "structure it cannot create by itself okay so if I'm able to do all three things then I'm able to use AI to optimize what I wanted to optimize okay all right any questions so far before I move on okay so what this means..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says subjective questions like the best ice cream cannot be turned into AI problems because they lack clean, objective data.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "temporal_scope": "General limitation stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "subjectivity", "data", "ai-limits" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 989.07, "end": 1064.61, "time_label": "16:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "need to solve then is data okay for input but the thing about data is that it has to be cleaner than the score the okay does that make sense it has to be a clean data okay so for example if I want to teach this AI to re..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says computers can refine and optimize an algorithmic structure, but cannot create that structure by themselves.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015" ], "temporal_scope": "AI limitation stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "algorithm", "ai-limits", "optimization" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 989.07, "end": 1064.61, "time_label": "16:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "need to solve then is data okay for input but the thing about data is that it has to be cleaner than the score the okay does that make sense it has to be a clean data okay so for example if I want to teach this AI to re..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1064.61, "end": 1160.3, "time_label": "17:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "structure it cannot create by itself okay so if I'm able to do all three things then I'm able to use AI to optimize what I wanted to optimize okay all right any questions so far before I move on okay so what this means..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He maps his Iran-war prediction into AI terms: push factors include the Israel lobby, Saudi Arabia, and American petrodollar needs, while insufficient counterforces leave war as the predicted output.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction-model example stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "iran", "petrodollar", "war-model", "ai" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1315.08, "end": 1392.53, "time_label": "21:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "think about actual applications of AI it's it's very limited you also look at self -driving cars now there are cars that have self -driving features but they are not 100 % self -driving it doesn't make sense in fact the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1392.53, "end": 1489.46, "time_label": "23:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "for example remember what we remember my predictions the issue a lobby, Saudi Arabia and the American Empire, basically the need to protect the petrodollar, will force America to go to war with Iran. These are the push..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says a war-cause model can be refined by testing it against historical cases such as the Sicilian expedition and Operation Barbarossa.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "temporal_scope": "Method proposal stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "historical-data", "model-testing", "war" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1492.18, "end": 1578.57, "time_label": "24:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now that we have the AI model, what we need to do now is to refine it. And the way we refine it is by going back in history and looking at every single war that started. Does that make sense? You take this model and you..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says psychohistory develops by combining multiple refined models, such as a war model and a Trump-election model.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "temporal_scope": "Method proposal stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "psychohistory", "model-composition", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1492.18, "end": 1578.57, "time_label": "24:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now that we have the AI model, what we need to do now is to refine it. And the way we refine it is by going back in history and looking at every single war that started. Does that make sense? You take this model and you..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says voters are rejecting secular liberalism because people seek structure, meaning, power, purpose, and the capacity to love, create, learn, and grow.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "temporal_scope": "Human motivation model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "human-heart", "secular-liberalism", "structure", "meaning" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1852.59, "end": 1947.8, "time_label": "30:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And my family. Does that make sense? Okay, it's imposing a foreign identity on me. And proponents of the European Union would argue that, no, this is just a secular, liberal idea, okay? The entire idea of the EU is that..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says people rebel against abstract foreign authority because it destroys structure, meaning, purpose, agency, and the human heart.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "temporal_scope": "Human motivation model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "human-heart", "agency", "rebellion", "authority" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1947.98, "end": 2042.183, "time_label": "32:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That's what we are fundamentally as human beings. And when you ask me to obey an abstract foreign entity that is very far from me, then you are, like, not human. You are limiting or destroying the structure, meaning, an..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 2042.183, "end": 2135.46, "time_label": "34:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will want to kill, okay? And so, in other words, one idea in this AI model is that there is a fundamental underlying structure to human society, okay? If society conforms to the structure of the human heart, this soc..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says Dante and Homer would locate the source of rebellion and social order in the human heart.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretive claim stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "dante", "homer", "human-heart" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1947.98, "end": 2042.183, "time_label": "32:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That's what we are fundamentally as human beings. And when you ask me to obey an abstract foreign entity that is very far from me, then you are, like, not human. You are limiting or destroying the structure, meaning, an..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says societies prosper when they conform to the structure of the human heart and collapse when they repress it.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "temporal_scope": "General civilizational model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "human-heart", "collapse", "prosperity", "psychohistory" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 2042.183, "end": 2135.46, "time_label": "34:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will want to kill, okay? And so, in other words, one idea in this AI model is that there is a fundamental underlying structure to human society, okay? If society conforms to the structure of the human heart, this soc..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 2135.68, "end": 2211.92, "time_label": "35:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "For children? For pregnant women? Okay? When you go to the park, do people actually pick up garbage and throw it in the garbage bin, okay? Sequanticity tells us that there's cohesion and trust in society, that society i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says mass society is a historical accident requiring artificial elites, even though the elites are not actually better than ordinary people.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "temporal_scope": "Social model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "mass-society", "elite", "historical-accident" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2212.06, "end": 2310.6, "time_label": "36:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does it make sense? Any questions so far? Yeah, excuse me? Okay, that's a great question, okay? So one thing that was not supposed to happen is the idea of mass estás? You can say that mass society is a complete, what's..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He argues that elites maintain power by creating fictions of superiority such as elite degrees, IQ, or royal ancestry.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "temporal_scope": "Elite legitimation model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "elite-fiction", "legitimacy", "power" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2212.06, "end": 2310.6, "time_label": "36:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does it make sense? Any questions so far? Yeah, excuse me? Okay, that's a great question, okay? So one thing that was not supposed to happen is the idea of mass estás? You can say that mass society is a complete, what's..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2312.88, "end": 2370.415, "time_label": "38:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They need to create fictions. For example, maybe, well, I went to Yale or Harvard, and therefore, I should be at the top. Or maybe I have a higher IQ than you do. Or maybe my dad or my great -great -great -great -grandf..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Answering Sally, he says individual uniqueness and change do not negate shared fundamental desires for structure, meaning, purpose, love, creation, and growth.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "temporal_scope": "Human motivation model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "human-universals", "sally-question", "eudaimonia" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2370.415, "end": 2466.28, "time_label": "39:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's what's happening today. And so this repression can go on for a long time, but to control us, they must repress the human heart. Okay? Because it's in the human heart to want to question. To be curious...." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2466.62, "end": 2523.45, "time_label": "41:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's a great point. But what Homer and Dante would say that, no. No. No. No. No. At the fundamental level, okay, we all have the same desires. We're motivated by the same needs. Okay? There's no one in this..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2524.97, "end": 2557.65, "time_label": "42:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "When you achieve all three things, what do we call this? Eudaimonia. Right? This is eudaimonia. This is what the Greeks meant. By a happy. Happy. And self -fulfilled life. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? So, there may..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says his class has been a form of self-AI: analytical models generate predictions that cannot be fully validated until decades later.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "temporal_scope": "Reflection on the course stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "self-ai", "course-method", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2571.87, "end": 2638.102, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So, Sally asked the question, like, how do you construct this? This AI. Okay? And so, for this AI to be valid, okay, let me explain how we would actually implement. Okay? So, first of all, you need at least 50 to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says failed predictions require revising the predictions and analysis rather than keeping the model fixed.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035" ], "temporal_scope": "Method rule stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "model-revision", "validation", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2571.87, "end": 2638.102, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So, Sally asked the question, like, how do you construct this? This AI. Okay? And so, for this AI to be valid, okay, let me explain how we would actually implement. Okay? So, first of all, you need at least 50 to..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2638.102, "end": 2701.21, "time_label": "43:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "If they're not correct, what you have to do is go away. You have to change these predictions, okay? And analysis. Okay? Does that make sense? Then what you have to do is you basically have to, and this is actually what'..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says building psychohistory also requires rewriting history because much accepted history is not correct.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "temporal_scope": "Method claim stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "history", "revision", "psychohistory" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2638.102, "end": 2701.21, "time_label": "43:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "If they're not correct, what you have to do is go away. You have to change these predictions, okay? And analysis. Okay? Does that make sense? Then what you have to do is you basically have to, and this is actually what'..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2701.21, "end": 2773.7, "time_label": "45:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But also going back to throughout history and seeing how history can be revamped or changed so that it's more accurate. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? That's a project. But now, but then there's the technology. Becau..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2773.7, "end": 2838.01, "time_label": "46:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "one thing that you notice in this class, it's like we tend to repeat the same mistakes. Right? The question is like, why do we do that? It's because the history that we have is complete bullshit. It just is. It's not tr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says historians, mathematicians, and programmers must collaborate because computers require numbers, equations, and models rather than ideas alone.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0036" ], "temporal_scope": "Project requirement stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "collaboration", "mathematics", "programming", "history" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2701.21, "end": 2773.7, "time_label": "45:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But also going back to throughout history and seeing how history can be revamped or changed so that it's more accurate. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? That's a project. But now, but then there's the technology. Becau..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Answering Eric, he says the edge cases for psychohistory are great men who appear from outside normal forces and change history.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039" ], "temporal_scope": "Model limitation stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "edge-case", "great-man-theory", "history" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2839.14, "end": 2925.561, "time_label": "47:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right? Any more questions? Yeah, Eric? Excuse me? Oh, so Eric asked a great question. Will this psychohistory model encounter edge cases? And the answer is, that's the best question. Okay? That's a great question. And t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2925.561, "end": 2995.22, "time_label": "48:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They can step outside of history and control history. That's what great men are. So, how does your model account for that? Okay? And the answer is, you cannot. So, in foundation, okay, the solution, okay, but there is a..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says the second foundation solves psychohistory's edge-case problem by placing specialists behind the AI to observe history and correct the model.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "temporal_scope": "Model extension stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "second-foundation", "edge-case", "model-correction" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2925.561, "end": 2995.22, "time_label": "48:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They can step outside of history and control history. That's what great men are. So, how does your model account for that? Okay? And the answer is, you cannot. So, in foundation, okay, the solution, okay, but there is a..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2995.25, "end": 3072.7, "time_label": "49:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "specialists who observe the AI and who observe history and who correct the AI for edge cases. Okay? Does that make sense? So, Putin appears and is like, okay, well, clearly, I'm not accounting for Putin. Well, then I ch..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says psychohistory contains not only a promise of future prediction but also a promise that unrealized capacities of the human mind might be developed.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "temporal_scope": "Speculative model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "psychohistory", "telepathy", "human-potential" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2995.25, "end": 3072.7, "time_label": "49:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "specialists who observe the AI and who observe history and who correct the AI for edge cases. Okay? Does that make sense? So, Putin appears and is like, okay, well, clearly, I'm not accounting for Putin. Well, then I ch..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang speculates that historical edge cases or great men can be understood as telepaths who can read and control minds.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "temporal_scope": "Speculative model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "telepathy", "great-men", "edge-case" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 3073.12, "end": 3137.938, "time_label": "51:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I think yes. And the answer is that you can make the argument that these edge cases that Eric refers to, these great men of history, they're actually telepaths. Okay? Does that make sense? They're actually telepaths. So..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3137.938, "end": 3219.92, "time_label": "52:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And is it possible that in the future we'll have more telepaths? And we can, over time, harness the power of these telepaths to create the second foundation and to control psychohistory? Possibly. Right? Okay? Because,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says Homer and Dante can only be explained as figures with God-given gifts, perhaps speaking for God, because they stepped outside history and directed it.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretive claim stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "homer", "dante", "great-men", "god-given-gifts" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3137.938, "end": 3219.92, "time_label": "52:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And is it possible that in the future we'll have more telepaths? And we can, over time, harness the power of these telepaths to create the second foundation and to control psychohistory? Possibly. Right? Okay? Because,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Answering Celine, he says love, learning, and creation can be modeled through agency, freedom, social interaction, and compassion.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "temporal_scope": "Model component stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "agency", "freedom", "social-interaction", "compassion" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3220.04, "end": 3300.8, "time_label": "53:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Okay. How do you model love, learn, and create? Okay? And the answer is that there has to be a certain amount of autonomy or agency in the lives of people. Does that make sense? What we call freedom and liberty. B..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3301.68, "end": 3369.87, "time_label": "55:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And the last thing is you also have to model in the idea of compassion. Okay? So the idea here is that if I all put you on an island together. Okay? And you must survive. Well, you will become compassionate with e..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says human powers are relational: people cannot love themselves, create by themselves, or learn only from themselves.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043" ], "temporal_scope": "Human motivation model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "relationality", "love", "creation", "learning" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3220.04, "end": 3300.8, "time_label": "53:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Okay. How do you model love, learn, and create? Okay? And the answer is that there has to be a certain amount of autonomy or agency in the lives of people. Does that make sense? What we call freedom and liberty. B..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says social arrangements shape compassion: shared survival can produce cooperation, while competitive money incentives can make people hate each other.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "temporal_scope": "Social model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "compassion", "competition", "cooperation" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3301.68, "end": 3369.87, "time_label": "55:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And the last thing is you also have to model in the idea of compassion. Okay? So the idea here is that if I all put you on an island together. Okay? And you must survive. Well, you will become compassionate with e..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He distinguishes social science, which tries to mathematize what drives people, from literature, which expresses truths that cannot be mathematically quantified.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "temporal_scope": "Method distinction stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "social-science", "literature", "human-truth" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3370.17, "end": 3485.1, "time_label": "56:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does that make sense? Actually, guys, we have all these theories. It's just like no one is turning this into a mathematical model. Okay? For society. Any more questions? Yeah? Yeah. So Eric asked the question, is..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3485.28, "end": 3573.58, "time_label": "58:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Prime sneaks into Achilles' tent. And kisses his hand. Right? That moment. You can never mathematically express it. You can only write about it. But think about how much truth and power is in that one scene. Okay? Do..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says Dante makes explicit that humans are driven by love and the willingness to imagine, and that any AI model must treat those as underlying truths.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretive model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "dante", "love", "imagination", "ai-model" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3485.28, "end": 3573.58, "time_label": "58:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Prime sneaks into Achilles' tent. And kisses his hand. Right? That moment. You can never mathematically express it. You can only write about it. But think about how much truth and power is in that one scene. Okay? Do..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Answering Celine, he says love and hate are one force, and creation and destruction are one force; if love or creation cannot express itself, hate and destruction will.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "temporal_scope": "Human motivation model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "love-hate", "creation-destruction", "repression", "rebellion" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3485.28, "end": 3573.58, "time_label": "58:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Prime sneaks into Achilles' tent. And kisses his hand. Right? That moment. You can never mathematically express it. You can only write about it. But think about how much truth and power is in that one scene. Okay? Do..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 3574.12, "end": 3646.028, "time_label": "59:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the answer is that love and hate are one force. You understand? If I can't love you, I'm going to hate you. You understand? Okay? Guess what, guys? Creation and destruction. Destruction is one force as well. If I ca..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3646.028, "end": 3740.08, "time_label": "1:00:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But within each of these things is another force. And if love can't be satisfied. Love can't express itself. Then hate will express itself. Does that make sense? Okay? All right. Any more questions? Yeah? So Sally asked..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says centralized elites turn people into slaves, blocking love, creation, learning, and growth, which produces rebellion and social destruction.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047" ], "temporal_scope": "Collapse model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "elite-centralization", "slavery", "rebellion", "collapse" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 3574.12, "end": 3646.028, "time_label": "59:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the answer is that love and hate are one force. You understand? If I can't love you, I'm going to hate you. You understand? Okay? Guess what, guys? Creation and destruction. Destruction is one force as well. If I ca..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says the AI should generate scenarios for shared problems like climate change and war so people can agree on actions and stick together.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "temporal_scope": "Governance model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "scenario-planning", "climate-change", "war", "collective-action" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3741.21, "end": 3807.46, "time_label": "1:02:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it will give you different scenarios. And we can all agree on which scenario we want. And therefore, we can agree on what action to take. Okay? So, this AI has to be part of a democratic system where everyone is inv..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3807.66, "end": 3875.45, "time_label": "1:03:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right? The United States attacks Iran, then this will happen. And that becomes a very powerful argument for correct and proper behavior. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. But again, guys, this is just conjecture. O..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says a psychohistory AI could warn that if the United States intervenes in Ukraine or attacks Iran, specific consequences will follow, making proper behavior more compelling.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "temporal_scope": "Hypothetical example stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "ukraine", "iran", "scenario-planning", "proper-behavior" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3741.21, "end": 3807.46, "time_label": "1:02:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it will give you different scenarios. And we can all agree on which scenario we want. And therefore, we can agree on what action to take. Okay? So, this AI has to be part of a democratic system where everyone is inv..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3807.66, "end": 3875.45, "time_label": "1:03:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right? The United States attacks Iran, then this will happen. And that becomes a very powerful argument for correct and proper behavior. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. But again, guys, this is just conjecture. O..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says collapse may create the social space needed for psychohistory, just as Homer and Dante wrote when their societies had collapsed.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "temporal_scope": "Conditional model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "collapse", "homer", "dante", "psychohistory" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3807.66, "end": 3875.45, "time_label": "1:03:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right? The United States attacks Iran, then this will happen. And that becomes a very powerful argument for correct and proper behavior. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. But again, guys, this is just conjecture. O..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3877.93, "end": 3949.789, "time_label": "1:04:37", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, if it is true, if my predictions are correct and society is approaching collapse, then there should be a lot of space and leeway and flexibility to create this AI. Okay? Okay. Any more questions? Yeah? That's a grea..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "diagnoses": [ { "claim": "He argues that self-driving cars cannot be fully solved because the system cannot plan for a human intentionally trying to crash into the car.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "temporal_scope": "AI limitation stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "self-driving-cars", "edge-case", "intentionality", "ai-limits" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1064.61, "end": 1160.3, "time_label": "17:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "structure it cannot create by itself okay so if I'm able to do all three things then I'm able to use AI to optimize what I wanted to optimize okay all right any questions so far before I move on okay so what this means..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1162.21, "end": 1249.85, "time_label": "19:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, the answer no is, whatever I do, okay, I cannot solve something called the edge case. The edge case is, if the car is on the road, what could happen that would screw up my AI system? You guys know? Why can't self..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says AI does not have self-awareness and can only do what the algorithm tells it to do.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017" ], "temporal_scope": "AI limitation stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "ai", "self-awareness", "algorithm" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1250.09, "end": 1315.08, "time_label": "20:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But in a situation where I'm the human being, and I don't like self -driving cars because I'm a taxi driver, and it's stealing my job, right? It's stealing my livelihood, and I want to crash into that car. There's no wa..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says cars may have self-driving features but are not fully self-driving because they cannot prevent malicious or intentional human edge cases.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "temporal_scope": "AI limitation stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "self-driving-cars", "edge-case", "ai-limits" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1250.09, "end": 1315.08, "time_label": "20:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But in a situation where I'm the human being, and I don't like self -driving cars because I'm a taxi driver, and it's stealing my job, right? It's stealing my livelihood, and I want to crash into that car. There's no wa..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1315.08, "end": 1392.53, "time_label": "21:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "think about actual applications of AI it's it's very limited you also look at self -driving cars now there are cars that have self -driving features but they are not 100 % self -driving it doesn't make sense in fact the..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He interprets the June 2024 European Parliament results as a clear shift to the right driven by anti-immigration, anti-Brussels federalism, and rejection of pan-European identity.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "temporal_scope": "Diagnosis of events current to 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "european-elections", "rightward-shift", "immigration", "eu" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1579.93, "end": 1665.46, "time_label": "26:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does this make sense, guys? All right. So now the question then is, okay, how would this AI model work? Or what are sort of the ideas behind this model? Okay? So we talk about game theory analysis a lot. All right..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1665.86, "end": 1759.24, "time_label": "27:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the results are pretty shocking, because it signals a clear shift to the right. So, for example, Marylepaine's party in France picked up a lot of votes this week. of votes. The AFD, the Alternative for Germany in Ge..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1759.24, "end": 1852.59, "time_label": "29:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And now Europeans are rebelling or revolting against that. Second thing that they don't like about Europe so far is the idea of federalism, okay? Or they can say bureaucratism. But it's the idea that a foreign power, Br..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He claims high-synchronicity societies such as Japan and Germany will do better over the long term than low-synchronicity societies such as India, Brazil, and China.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "temporal_scope": "General comparative model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "synchronicity", "japan", "germany", "china", "india", "brazil" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 2135.68, "end": 2211.92, "time_label": "35:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "For children? For pregnant women? Okay? When you go to the park, do people actually pick up garbage and throw it in the garbage bin, okay? Sequanticity tells us that there's cohesion and trust in society, that society i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says recent global economic, COVID, and war management shows elite incompetence, which forces elites toward lies, force, and repression to make people obedient.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "temporal_scope": "Diagnosis of contemporary politics stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "elite-incompetence", "covid", "war", "repression" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2312.88, "end": 2370.415, "time_label": "38:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They need to create fictions. For example, maybe, well, I went to Yale or Harvard, and therefore, I should be at the top. Or maybe I have a higher IQ than you do. Or maybe my dad or my great -great -great -great -grandf..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2370.415, "end": 2466.28, "time_label": "39:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's what's happening today. And so this repression can go on for a long time, but to control us, they must repress the human heart. Okay? Because it's in the human heart to want to question. To be curious...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says buying things can function as a distraction from questioning, thinking, and challenging elite incompetence.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "temporal_scope": "Diagnosis of repression stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "consumerism", "repression", "human-heart" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2370.415, "end": 2466.28, "time_label": "39:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's what's happening today. And so this repression can go on for a long time, but to control us, they must repress the human heart. Okay? Because it's in the human heart to want to question. To be curious...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He presents the rise of Christianity as an example where he distrusts conventional history and finds Roman imperial co-option a more plausible explanation.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical reinterpretation offered on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "christianity", "roman-empire", "historical-revision" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2773.7, "end": 2838.01, "time_label": "46:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "one thing that you notice in this class, it's like we tend to repeat the same mistakes. Right? The question is like, why do we do that? It's because the history that we have is complete bullshit. It just is. It's not tr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says different nations currently want different hegemonic outcomes: America wants American hegemony, Putin wants Russian hegemony, and China wants Chinese hegemony.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "temporal_scope": "Contemporary diagnosis stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "hegemony", "america", "russia", "china" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3877.93, "end": 3949.789, "time_label": "1:04:37", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, if it is true, if my predictions are correct and society is approaching collapse, then there should be a lot of space and leeway and flexibility to create this AI. Okay? Okay. Any more questions? Yeah? That's a grea..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "other_claims": [ { "claim": "Jiang frames the final class as a movement from the semester's bleak world analysis toward hope and future-making.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "temporal_scope": "Course-closing framing on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "hope", "future", "course-frame" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.75, "end": 85.61, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, well, this is it. The end of the journey, the final class. So, we've done a lot this year, right? Last semester, we did the great books, the Iliad, the Odyssey, the Bible, Republic, Divine Comedy. This semester, w..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 145.48, "end": 228.44, "time_label": "2:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the deaths of millions and billions of people. And because of climate change, our world will eventually collapse at some point. Okay? So, this is an extremely hopeless and extremely bleak and dark picture of the wor..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says the future is what people imagine, fight for, and make happen, not something passively endured.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0002" ], "temporal_scope": "General normative model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "agency", "imagination", "future" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 0.75, "end": 85.61, "time_label": "0:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, well, this is it. The end of the journey, the final class. So, we've done a lot this year, right? Last semester, we did the great books, the Iliad, the Odyssey, the Bible, Republic, Divine Comedy. This semester, w..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 85.63, "end": 144.86, "time_label": "1:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it's these two things that will guide us and enable us to build a better world. Okay? So, that's the message I want to give to you today. The future is what we imagine, not what we have to put up with. So, if we don..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He defines psychohistory as the idea that the future can be predicted, controlled, and harnessed for humanity's betterment.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "psychohistory", "prediction", "control" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 145.48, "end": 228.44, "time_label": "2:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the deaths of millions and billions of people. And because of climate change, our world will eventually collapse at some point. Okay? So, this is an extremely hopeless and extremely bleak and dark picture of the wor..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 228.94, "end": 305.96, "time_label": "3:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "It's terrible, but you can have a look at it. And in the Foundation books, he introduces the idea of psychohistory. And so, this book is set in the future, like a million years from now. Where there is a galactic empire..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He uses failed imperial examination candidates and Hong Xiuquan as examples of frustrated would-be elites leading revolutionary collapse.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "temporal_scope": "Historical example used on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "china", "keju", "hong-xiuquan", "elite-overproduction" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 475.9, "end": 552.49, "time_label": "7:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "If everyone has the power, no one has any power. Okay? So, what happens over time is that all these people who believe they have power. They should have power. Struggle for power. And because there are too many of them,..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 552.71, "end": 629.98, "time_label": "9:12", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Because he failed the Kejiu. Okay? So, that's the idea of the overproduction of the elite. And he discovered this principle using mathematically modeling of history. Okay? He just compared different societies and tried..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the technically correct term for AI is supervised machine learning.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0009" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "ai", "supervised-machine-learning", "definition" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 630.1, "end": 700.47, "time_label": "10:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, what is AI? All right. The AI, the technical term, is supervised intelligence. Supervised machine learning. Okay? That's the technical term. AI is the popular term. But supervised machine learning is the techn..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He defines traditional computer programming as algorithm plus input producing output, and supervised machine learning as turning the desired output into part of the input so the computer can refine the algorithm.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "temporal_scope": "Technical model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "algorithm", "input-output", "machine-learning" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 630.1, "end": 700.47, "time_label": "10:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, what is AI? All right. The AI, the technical term, is supervised intelligence. Supervised machine learning. Okay? That's the technical term. AI is the popular term. But supervised machine learning is the techn..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 700.47, "end": 779.65, "time_label": "11:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That's how computers work. Right? Now, supervised machine learning is that. I will turn the output into the input. Okay? And the reason why I want to do that is that as a human being, I myself may not be able to write t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He uses facial recognition as an example of converting faces into mathematical topology and matching that model against a database.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "temporal_scope": "Example stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "facial-recognition", "topology", "database" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 700.47, "end": 779.65, "time_label": "11:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That's how computers work. Right? Now, supervised machine learning is that. I will turn the output into the input. Okay? And the reason why I want to do that is that as a human being, I myself may not be able to write t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 780.25, "end": 843.41, "time_label": "13:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does that make sense? So, what I do is for the face, I create a mathematical model based on topology. Okay? Does that make sense? Topology. So, I turn everyone's face into a mathematical model. Okay? Which looks l..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 843.41, "end": 915.32, "time_label": "14:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "that I can only look at your eyes and I know who you are okay because what I'm trying to do is match what your model with the model in the database all right but what what's important to remember is that if you're not i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says AI is infinite iteration: the model returns a result, is told when it is wrong, and refines itself until it matches the target output.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "iteration", "machine-learning", "optimization" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 843.41, "end": 915.32, "time_label": "14:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "that I can only look at your eyes and I know who you are okay because what I'm trying to do is match what your model with the model in the database all right but what what's important to remember is that if you're not i..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 915.32, "end": 989.07, "time_label": "15:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "this is wrong and what the computer then does is we find this model until it becomes this doesn't make sense okay so what this what all AI is is infinite iteration okay it doesn't make sense all right okay so the proble..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He defines game theory analysis as a model without good and evil, only self-interested players trying to optimize winning strategies.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0021" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "game-theory", "self-interest", "strategy" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1579.93, "end": 1665.46, "time_label": "26:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does this make sense, guys? All right. So now the question then is, okay, how would this AI model work? Or what are sort of the ideas behind this model? Okay? So we talk about game theory analysis a lot. All right..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He defines synchronicity as social willingness to follow rules, using traffic, subway seats, and public trash as examples of cohesion and trust.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "temporal_scope": "Definition stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "synchronicity", "social-trust", "rule-following" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 2042.183, "end": 2135.46, "time_label": "34:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will want to kill, okay? And so, in other words, one idea in this AI model is that there is a fundamental underlying structure to human society, okay? If society conforms to the structure of the human heart, this soc..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 2135.68, "end": 2211.92, "time_label": "35:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "For children? For pregnant women? Okay? When you go to the park, do people actually pick up garbage and throw it in the garbage bin, okay? Sequanticity tells us that there's cohesion and trust in society, that society i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He uses Putin as an example of someone who, without special elite background, amassed enough power that Russia moves according to his command.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041" ], "temporal_scope": "Contemporary example stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "putin", "russia", "great-men", "telepathy" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 3073.12, "end": 3137.938, "time_label": "51:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I think yes. And the answer is that you can make the argument that these edge cases that Eric refers to, these great men of history, they're actually telepaths. Okay? Does that make sense? They're actually telepaths. So..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He uses Priam kissing Achilles' hand for Hector's body as an example of human truth that cannot be mathematically expressed but can be written.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "temporal_scope": "Literary example stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "iliad", "priam", "achilles", "literature" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3370.17, "end": 3485.1, "time_label": "56:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does that make sense? Actually, guys, we have all these theories. It's just like no one is turning this into a mathematical model. Okay? For society. Any more questions? Yeah? Yeah. So Eric asked the question, is..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3485.28, "end": 3573.58, "time_label": "58:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Prime sneaks into Achilles' tent. And kisses his hand. Right? That moment. You can never mathematically express it. You can only write about it. But think about how much truth and power is in that one scene. Okay? Do..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the psychohistory AI must be part of a democratic system where everyone is involved, otherwise it can only be abused.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "temporal_scope": "Governance model stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "ai-governance", "democracy", "abuse" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3741.21, "end": 3807.46, "time_label": "1:02:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it will give you different scenarios. And we can all agree on which scenario we want. And therefore, we can agree on what action to take. Okay? So, this AI has to be part of a democratic system where everyone is inv..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says the AI can work only if it steps outside history and human interests, speaking for all humanity rather than one nation or group.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "temporal_scope": "Governance condition stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "ai-governance", "humanity", "neutrality", "history" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 3949.789, "end": 4029.82, "time_label": "1:05:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Humans are united in their goals, which is basically how do we create a better civilization. Okay? Does that make sense? When all society has collapsed, everyone's like, how do we recreate civilization? That's the goal...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says the year proved students can grow through difficult Great Books and geopolitics work, and that this growth gives him hope that hard work can improve the world.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0055" ], "temporal_scope": "Course reflection stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "education", "great-books", "student-growth", "hope" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0053", "segment_id": "seg-0053", "start": 4029.96, "end": 4105.62, "time_label": "1:07:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? In the first semester, we read the great books. And I was blown away by how much you guys enjoyed the great books. And how much you benefit from reading the great books. Okay? And quite honestly, I don't think any..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 4105.84, "end": 4186.81, "time_label": "1:08:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You guys are asking great questions. Okay? So, thank you again. Because you don't have to work hard in this course. But you chose to work hard. And this is going to carry you very far in life. Okay? So, the course has c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 4186.81, "end": 4253.52, "time_label": "1:09:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "do you have to believe in a better world, you have to imagine and to fight for it. Because you have to leave behind a legacy for your children. Okay? So, why I teach this course is to bring you a message of hope. Okay?..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He says he teaches high school in China because, as a father, he has to believe in, imagine, and fight for a better world as a legacy for his children.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0055" ], "temporal_scope": "Personal motivation stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "teaching", "fatherhood", "legacy", "hope" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 4105.84, "end": 4186.81, "time_label": "1:08:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You guys are asking great questions. Okay? So, thank you again. Because you don't have to work hard in this course. But you chose to work hard. And this is going to carry you very far in life. Okay? So, the course has c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 4186.81, "end": 4253.52, "time_label": "1:09:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "do you have to believe in a better world, you have to imagine and to fight for it. Because you have to leave behind a legacy for your children. Okay? So, why I teach this course is to bring you a message of hope. Okay?..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He closes by telling students that psychohistory requires many people working together and may be something they return to later in life.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "temporal_scope": "Closing invitation stated on 2024-06-13.", "topic_tags": [ "psychohistory", "collaboration", "future" ], "claim_type": "normative", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 4253.86, "end": 4287.16, "time_label": "1:10:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And maybe at some point, we can share this dream of psychohistory. You know? I know it sounds very complicated. It's very abstract. But to make this work, you need a lot of people working together. Okay? And it's someth..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "glossary_terms": [ { "term": "agency", "usages": [ "The freedom or liberty people need in order to love, create, learn, and grow." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3220.04, "end": 3300.8, "time_label": "53:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. Okay. How do you model love, learn, and create? Okay? And the answer is that there has to be a certain amount of autonomy or agency in the lives of people. Does that make sense? What we call freedom and liberty. B..." } ] }, { "term": "artificial elite", "usages": [ "Elites required by mass society whose authority rests on constructed fictions rather than intrinsic superiority." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0029" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2212.06, "end": 2310.6, "time_label": "36:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does it make sense? Any questions so far? Yeah, excuse me? Okay, that's a great question, okay? So one thing that was not supposed to happen is the idea of mass estás? You can say that mass society is a complete, what's..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2312.88, "end": 2370.415, "time_label": "38:32", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They need to create fictions. For example, maybe, well, I went to Yale or Harvard, and therefore, I should be at the top. Or maybe I have a higher IQ than you do. Or maybe my dad or my great -great -great -great -grandf..." } ] }, { "term": "clean data", "usages": [ "Labeled data precise enough for the AI to compare its output against a target." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 989.07, "end": 1064.61, "time_label": "16:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "need to solve then is data okay for input but the thing about data is that it has to be cleaner than the score the okay does that make sense it has to be a clean data okay so for example if I want to teach this AI to re..." } ] }, { "term": "clear metrics", "usages": [ "The need for an output that can be defined as a mathematical target." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 915.32, "end": 989.07, "time_label": "15:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "this is wrong and what the computer then does is we find this model until it becomes this doesn't make sense okay so what this what all AI is is infinite iteration okay it doesn't make sense all right okay so the proble..." } ] }, { "term": "cliodynamics", "usages": [ "The mathematical modeling of historical movement; the transcript renders the name as 'Clio Dynamics'." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 306.1, "end": 393.04, "time_label": "5:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, this is what he called psychohistory. And it's a science fiction concept. And a lot of people have been trying to make it into reality. Okay? So, there's this very prominent historian. His name is Peter Turkin..." } ] }, { "term": "compassion", "usages": [ "A model variable measuring whether social conditions make people cooperate and work together." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3301.68, "end": 3369.87, "time_label": "55:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And the last thing is you also have to model in the idea of compassion. Okay? So the idea here is that if I all put you on an island together. Okay? And you must survive. Well, you will become compassionate with e..." } ] }, { "term": "correcting the past", "usages": [ "The psychohistory requirement to use a model to reconstruct history more accurately, not only forecast future events." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2638.102, "end": 2701.21, "time_label": "43:58", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "If they're not correct, what you have to do is go away. You have to change these predictions, okay? And analysis. Okay? Does that make sense? Then what you have to do is you basically have to, and this is actually what'..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2773.7, "end": 2838.01, "time_label": "46:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "one thing that you notice in this class, it's like we tend to repeat the same mistakes. Right? The question is like, why do we do that? It's because the history that we have is complete bullshit. It just is. It's not tr..." } ] }, { "term": "democratic psychohistory", "usages": [ "A version of psychohistory whose AI is open, transparent, and governed by collective agreement rather than elite exploitation." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3741.21, "end": 3807.46, "time_label": "1:02:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it will give you different scenarios. And we can all agree on which scenario we want. And therefore, we can agree on what action to take. Okay? So, this AI has to be part of a democratic system where everyone is inv..." } ] }, { "term": "dream of psychohistory", "usages": [ "The long-term collaborative project Jiang invites students to return to later in life." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 4253.86, "end": 4287.16, "time_label": "1:10:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And maybe at some point, we can share this dream of psychohistory. You know? I know it sounds very complicated. It's very abstract. But to make this work, you need a lot of people working together. Okay? And it's someth..." } ] }, { "term": "edge case", "usages": [ "A scenario that can screw up the AI system because it falls outside planned model assumptions.", "An intentional or unplanned human action that the AI's model cannot prevent or account for." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1162.21, "end": 1249.85, "time_label": "19:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, the answer no is, whatever I do, okay, I cannot solve something called the edge case. The edge case is, if the car is on the road, what could happen that would screw up my AI system? You guys know? Why can't self..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1250.09, "end": 1315.08, "time_label": "20:50", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But in a situation where I'm the human being, and I don't like self -driving cars because I'm a taxi driver, and it's stealing my job, right? It's stealing my livelihood, and I want to crash into that car. There's no wa..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1315.08, "end": 1392.53, "time_label": "21:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "think about actual applications of AI it's it's very limited you also look at self -driving cars now there are cars that have self -driving features but they are not 100 % self -driving it doesn't make sense in fact the..." } ] }, { "term": "eudaimonia", "usages": [ "The fulfilled human life achieved through love, creation, learning, growth, and shared underlying needs." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 2042.183, "end": 2135.46, "time_label": "34:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will want to kill, okay? And so, in other words, one idea in this AI model is that there is a fundamental underlying structure to human society, okay? If society conforms to the structure of the human heart, this soc..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2524.97, "end": 2557.65, "time_label": "42:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "When you achieve all three things, what do we call this? Eudaimonia. Right? This is eudaimonia. This is what the Greeks meant. By a happy. Happy. And self -fulfilled life. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay? So, there may..." } ] }, { "term": "game theory analysis", "usages": [ "A way to model politics as self-interested players optimizing strategies rather than as moral good and evil." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0021" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1579.93, "end": 1665.46, "time_label": "26:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does this make sense, guys? All right. So now the question then is, okay, how would this AI model work? Or what are sort of the ideas behind this model? Okay? So we talk about game theory analysis a lot. All right..." } ] }, { "term": "great man edge case", "usages": [ "A person who appears outside normal historical forces and redirects history, breaking the model's predictive assumptions." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2839.14, "end": 2925.561, "time_label": "47:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right? Any more questions? Yeah, Eric? Excuse me? Oh, so Eric asked a great question. Will this psychohistory model encounter edge cases? And the answer is, that's the best question. Okay? That's a great question. And t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2925.561, "end": 2995.22, "time_label": "48:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They can step outside of history and control history. That's what great men are. So, how does your model account for that? Okay? And the answer is, you cannot. So, in foundation, okay, the solution, okay, but there is a..." } ] }, { "term": "human heart", "usages": [ "Jiang's name for the shared human drive toward structure, meaning, purpose, love, creation, learning, growth, curiosity, and agency." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1947.98, "end": 2042.183, "time_label": "32:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That's what we are fundamentally as human beings. And when you ask me to obey an abstract foreign entity that is very far from me, then you are, like, not human. You are limiting or destroying the structure, meaning, an..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 2042.183, "end": 2135.46, "time_label": "34:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will want to kill, okay? And so, in other words, one idea in this AI model is that there is a fundamental underlying structure to human society, okay? If society conforms to the structure of the human heart, this soc..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2370.415, "end": 2466.28, "time_label": "39:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And that's what's happening today. And so this repression can go on for a long time, but to control us, they must repress the human heart. Okay? Because it's in the human heart to want to question. To be curious...." } ] }, { "term": "literature approach", "usages": [ "The attempt to express human truths through literature when they cannot be fully quantified by social science." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3370.17, "end": 3485.1, "time_label": "56:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does that make sense? Actually, guys, we have all these theories. It's just like no one is turning this into a mathematical model. Okay? For society. Any more questions? Yeah? Yeah. So Eric asked the question, is..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3485.28, "end": 3573.58, "time_label": "58:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Prime sneaks into Achilles' tent. And kisses his hand. Right? That moment. You can never mathematically express it. You can only write about it. But think about how much truth and power is in that one scene. Okay? Do..." } ] }, { "term": "love and hate as one force", "usages": [ "Jiang's model that hate is the expression of blocked love, just as destruction is blocked creation." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0047", "segment_id": "seg-0047", "start": 3574.12, "end": 3646.028, "time_label": "59:34", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the answer is that love and hate are one force. You understand? If I can't love you, I'm going to hate you. You understand? Okay? Guess what, guys? Creation and destruction. Destruction is one force as well. If I ca..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0048", "segment_id": "seg-0048", "start": 3646.028, "end": 3740.08, "time_label": "1:00:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "But within each of these things is another force. And if love can't be satisfied. Love can't express itself. Then hate will express itself. Does that make sense? Okay? All right. Any more questions? Yeah? So Sally asked..." } ] }, { "term": "overproduction of elites", "usages": [ "A collapse mechanism in which the number of people who believe they deserve power exceeds the finite amount of power available." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0007" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 306.1, "end": 393.04, "time_label": "5:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, this is what he called psychohistory. And it's a science fiction concept. And a lot of people have been trying to make it into reality. Okay? So, there's this very prominent historian. His name is Peter Turkin..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 475.9, "end": 552.49, "time_label": "7:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "If everyone has the power, no one has any power. Okay? So, what happens over time is that all these people who believe they have power. They should have power. Struggle for power. And because there are too many of them,..." } ] }, { "term": "pan-Europeanism", "usages": [ "The European Union's supranational identity project, which Jiang says voters reject as destructive of local identity and relationships." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1759.24, "end": 1852.59, "time_label": "29:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And now Europeans are rebelling or revolting against that. Second thing that they don't like about Europe so far is the idea of federalism, okay? Or they can say bureaucratism. But it's the idea that a foreign power, Br..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1852.59, "end": 1947.8, "time_label": "30:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And my family. Does that make sense? Okay, it's imposing a foreign identity on me. And proponents of the European Union would argue that, no, this is just a secular, liberal idea, okay? The entire idea of the EU is that..." } ] }, { "term": "psychohistory", "usages": [ "A proposed science of predicting the future by mathematically mapping human behavior and then using that prediction to guide events toward a better future." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 145.48, "end": 228.44, "time_label": "2:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the deaths of millions and billions of people. And because of climate change, our world will eventually collapse at some point. Okay? So, this is an extremely hopeless and extremely bleak and dark picture of the wor..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 228.94, "end": 305.96, "time_label": "3:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "It's terrible, but you can have a look at it. And in the Foundation books, he introduces the idea of psychohistory. And so, this book is set in the future, like a million years from now. Where there is a galactic empire..." } ] }, { "term": "scenario planning", "usages": [ "The AI's function of presenting possible futures for actions such as intervention in Ukraine or attacks on Iran." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3741.21, "end": 3807.46, "time_label": "1:02:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it will give you different scenarios. And we can all agree on which scenario we want. And therefore, we can agree on what action to take. Okay? So, this AI has to be part of a democratic system where everyone is inv..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0050", "segment_id": "seg-0050", "start": 3807.66, "end": 3875.45, "time_label": "1:03:27", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Right? The United States attacks Iran, then this will happen. And that becomes a very powerful argument for correct and proper behavior. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. But again, guys, this is just conjecture. O..." } ] }, { "term": "second foundation", "usages": [ "A group of specialists behind the psychohistory AI who observe events and adjust the model for edge cases." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2925.561, "end": 2995.22, "time_label": "48:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They can step outside of history and control history. That's what great men are. So, how does your model account for that? Okay? And the answer is, you cannot. So, in foundation, okay, the solution, okay, but there is a..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2995.25, "end": 3072.7, "time_label": "49:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "specialists who observe the AI and who observe history and who correct the AI for edge cases. Okay? Does that make sense? So, Putin appears and is like, okay, well, clearly, I'm not accounting for Putin. Well, then I ch..." } ] }, { "term": "self-AI", "usages": [ "Jiang's description of his own course method: build an analytical model, make predictions, and later validate or revise them." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2571.87, "end": 2638.102, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So, Sally asked the question, like, how do you construct this? This AI. Okay? And so, for this AI to be valid, okay, let me explain how we would actually implement. Okay? So, first of all, you need at least 50 to..." } ] }, { "term": "speaking for humanity", "usages": [ "The requirement that the AI stand outside national and group interests, otherwise competing factions bias it." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0052", "segment_id": "seg-0052", "start": 3949.789, "end": 4029.82, "time_label": "1:05:49", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Humans are united in their goals, which is basically how do we create a better civilization. Okay? Does that make sense? When all society has collapsed, everyone's like, how do we recreate civilization? That's the goal...." } ] }, { "term": "structure, meaning, and purpose", "usages": [ "A core human need that Jiang says abstract secular liberalism fails to satisfy." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1852.59, "end": 1947.8, "time_label": "30:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And my family. Does that make sense? Okay, it's imposing a foreign identity on me. And proponents of the European Union would argue that, no, this is just a secular, liberal idea, okay? The entire idea of the EU is that..." } ] }, { "term": "supervised machine learning", "usages": [ "Jiang's preferred technical name for AI: using known outputs to train and refine an algorithm." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 630.1, "end": 700.47, "time_label": "10:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, what is AI? All right. The AI, the technical term, is supervised intelligence. Supervised machine learning. Okay? That's the technical term. AI is the popular term. But supervised machine learning is the techn..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 700.47, "end": 779.65, "time_label": "11:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "That's how computers work. Right? Now, supervised machine learning is that. I will turn the output into the input. Okay? And the reason why I want to do that is that as a human being, I myself may not be able to write t..." } ] }, { "term": "synchronicity", "usages": [ "A society's cohesion, trust, and willingness to follow shared rules; ASR also renders it as 'sequanticity'." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 2042.183, "end": 2135.46, "time_label": "34:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will want to kill, okay? And so, in other words, one idea in this AI model is that there is a fundamental underlying structure to human society, okay? If society conforms to the structure of the human heart, this soc..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 2135.68, "end": 2211.92, "time_label": "35:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "For children? For pregnant women? Okay? When you go to the park, do people actually pick up garbage and throw it in the garbage bin, okay? Sequanticity tells us that there's cohesion and trust in society, that society i..." } ] }, { "term": "telepath", "usages": [ "A speculative name for great historical actors who seem able to read and control minds, stepping outside normal historical forces." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 3073.12, "end": 3137.938, "time_label": "51:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I think yes. And the answer is that you can make the argument that these edge cases that Eric refers to, these great men of history, they're actually telepaths. Okay? Does that make sense? They're actually telepaths. So..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3137.938, "end": 3219.92, "time_label": "52:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And is it possible that in the future we'll have more telepaths? And we can, over time, harness the power of these telepaths to create the second foundation and to control psychohistory? Possibly. Right? Okay? Because,..." } ] }, { "term": "telepaths", "usages": [ "In Jiang's Foundation-derived model, the second foundation figures who can read and control minds; he treats the idea as a speculative form of human potential." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2995.25, "end": 3072.7, "time_label": "49:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "specialists who observe the AI and who observe history and who correct the AI for edge cases. Okay? Does that make sense? So, Putin appears and is like, okay, well, clearly, I'm not accounting for Putin. Well, then I ch..." } ] }, { "term": "zero-sum power", "usages": [ "The claim that power differs from wealth and fame because it cannot be infinitely expanded; one person's power excludes another's." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 393.04, "end": 475.58, "time_label": "6:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it's a really interesting idea. Is the reason why societies collapse in the end. Is you have too many elites. All right? So, let me explain the concept. Okay. So, society has many elites. Right? You have people like..." } ] } ], "chronology_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0002" ], "note": "The lecture, dated 2024-06-13, repeats a prediction that Trump will win in November and then declare war on Iran.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 85.63, "end": 144.86, "time_label": "1:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it's these two things that will guide us and enable us to build a better world. Okay? So, that's the message I want to give to you today. The future is what we imagine, not what we have to put up with. So, if we don..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "note": "The lecture dates its European election analysis to the week of 2024-06-13 and predicts possible near-term French and EU consequences.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1665.86, "end": 1759.24, "time_label": "27:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the results are pretty shocking, because it signals a clear shift to the right. So, for example, Marylepaine's party in France picked up a lot of votes this week. of votes. The AFD, the Alternative for Germany in Ge..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1759.24, "end": 1852.59, "time_label": "29:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And now Europeans are rebelling or revolting against that. Second thing that they don't like about Europe so far is the idea of federalism, okay? Or they can say bureaucratism. But it's the idea that a foreign power, Br..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "note": "Jiang states on 2024-06-13 that the psychohistory AI would need 50 to 100 years before validation is possible.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2571.87, "end": 2638.102, "time_label": "42:51", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay. So, Sally asked the question, like, how do you construct this? This AI. Okay? And so, for this AI to be valid, okay, let me explain how we would actually implement. Okay? So, first of all, you need at least 50 to..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051" ], "note": "On 2024-06-13, Jiang predicts a collapse from roughly 8 billion people to roughly 1 billion people before humanity can unite around rebuilding civilization.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0051", "segment_id": "seg-0051", "start": 3877.93, "end": 3949.789, "time_label": "1:04:37", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So, if it is true, if my predictions are correct and society is approaching collapse, then there should be a lot of space and leeway and flexibility to create this AI. Okay? Okay. Any more questions? Yeah? That's a grea..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0055" ], "note": "The closing grounds the lecture's future-making doctrine in Jiang's personal 2024 fatherhood and teaching context.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0054", "segment_id": "seg-0054", "start": 4105.84, "end": 4186.81, "time_label": "1:08:25", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You guys are asking great questions. Okay? So, thank you again. Because you don't have to work hard in this course. But you chose to work hard. And this is going to carry you very far in life. Okay? So, the course has c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0055", "segment_id": "seg-0055", "start": 4186.81, "end": 4253.52, "time_label": "1:09:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "do you have to believe in a better world, you have to imagine and to fight for it. Because you have to leave behind a legacy for your children. Okay? So, why I teach this course is to bring you a message of hope. Okay?..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "uncertainty_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "note": "ASR renders the historian as 'Peter Turkin'; this likely refers to the cliodynamics figure commonly known as Peter Turchin, but the source phrase should be checked before public quotation.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 306.1, "end": 393.04, "time_label": "5:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So, this is what he called psychohistory. And it's a science fiction concept. And a lot of people have been trying to make it into reality. Okay? So, there's this very prominent historian. His name is Peter Turkin..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0007" ], "note": "The transcript uses 'Kejiu' for the imperial examination system; preserve the source wording unless a transcript cleanup pass standardizes it.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 475.9, "end": 552.49, "time_label": "7:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "If everyone has the power, no one has any power. Okay? So, what happens over time is that all these people who believe they have power. They should have power. Struggle for power. And because there are too many of them,..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "note": "Several ASR passages lose punctuation and contain likely mishearings, but the argument remains clear enough for semantic extraction.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 780.25, "end": 843.41, "time_label": "13:00", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does that make sense? So, what I do is for the face, I create a mathematical model based on topology. Okay? Does that make sense? Topology. So, I turn everyone's face into a mathematical model. Okay? Which looks l..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 843.41, "end": 915.32, "time_label": "14:03", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "that I can only look at your eyes and I know who you are okay because what I'm trying to do is match what your model with the model in the database all right but what what's important to remember is that if you're not i..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 915.32, "end": 989.07, "time_label": "15:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "this is wrong and what the computer then does is we find this model until it becomes this doesn't make sense okay so what this what all AI is is infinite iteration okay it doesn't make sense all right okay so the proble..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 989.07, "end": 1064.61, "time_label": "16:29", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "need to solve then is data okay for input but the thing about data is that it has to be cleaner than the score the okay does that make sense it has to be a clean data okay so for example if I want to teach this AI to re..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "note": "Sally's answer about self-driving cars is not directly transcribed; Jiang's response implies she offered a yes or partial yes.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1064.61, "end": 1160.3, "time_label": "17:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "structure it cannot create by itself okay so if I'm able to do all three things then I'm able to use AI to optimize what I wanted to optimize okay all right any questions so far before I move on okay so what this means..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1162.21, "end": 1249.85, "time_label": "19:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, the answer no is, whatever I do, okay, I cannot solve something called the edge case. The edge case is, if the car is on the road, what could happen that would screw up my AI system? You guys know? Why can't self..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0022" ], "note": "ASR renders Marine Le Pen as 'Marylepaine'; avoid quoting that spelling in public prose.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1665.86, "end": 1759.24, "time_label": "27:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the results are pretty shocking, because it signals a clear shift to the right. So, for example, Marylepaine's party in France picked up a lot of votes this week. of votes. The AFD, the Alternative for Germany in Ge..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0022" ], "note": "The phrase about Muslim immigrants threatening Christian social fabric is Jiang's stated diagnosis; it should be framed as source-attributed rather than endorsed commentary.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1665.86, "end": 1759.24, "time_label": "27:45", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And the results are pretty shocking, because it signals a clear shift to the right. So, for example, Marylepaine's party in France picked up a lot of votes this week. of votes. The AFD, the Alternative for Germany in Ge..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "note": "The term rendered as 'synchronicity' or 'sequanticity' may need transcript cleanup before public glossary use.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 2042.183, "end": 2135.46, "time_label": "34:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will want to kill, okay? And so, in other words, one idea in this AI model is that there is a fundamental underlying structure to human society, okay? If society conforms to the structure of the human heart, this soc..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 2135.68, "end": 2211.92, "time_label": "35:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "For children? For pregnant women? Okay? When you go to the park, do people actually pick up garbage and throw it in the garbage bin, okay? Sequanticity tells us that there's cohesion and trust in society, that society i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "note": "The opening phrase of the unidentified student question is unclear in ASR ('mass estas'); only Jiang's restated topic, mass society, is reliable.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2212.06, "end": 2310.6, "time_label": "36:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does it make sense? Any questions so far? Yeah, excuse me? Okay, that's a great question, okay? So one thing that was not supposed to happen is the idea of mass estás? You can say that mass society is a complete, what's..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "note": "Segment 0033 likely captures a backchannel or turn transition, not meaningful transcript content.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2560.99, "end": 2565.54, "time_label": "42:40", "speaker": "UNKNOWN", "excerpt": "Yeah. Yes." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "note": "The Christianity/Roman Empire passage is Jiang's interpretive claim and should remain clearly source-attributed.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2773.7, "end": 2838.01, "time_label": "46:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "one thing that you notice in this class, it's like we tend to repeat the same mistakes. Right? The question is like, why do we do that? It's because the history that we have is complete bullshit. It just is. It's not tr..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041" ], "note": "The 'Putin as telepath' claim is framed by Jiang as an argument one can make, not as a settled literal claim.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 3073.12, "end": 3137.938, "time_label": "51:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "I think yes. And the answer is that you can make the argument that these edge cases that Eric refers to, these great men of history, they're actually telepaths. Okay? Does that make sense? They're actually telepaths. So..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "note": "ASR renders Priam as 'Prime'; public prose should silently use Priam if quoting is not exact.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3370.17, "end": 3485.1, "time_label": "56:10", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? Does that make sense? Actually, guys, we have all these theories. It's just like no one is turning this into a mathematical model. Okay? For society. Any more questions? Yeah? Yeah. So Eric asked the question, is..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3485.28, "end": 3573.58, "time_label": "58:05", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Prime sneaks into Achilles' tent. And kisses his hand. Right? That moment. You can never mathematically express it. You can only write about it. But think about how much truth and power is in that one scene. Okay? Do..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049" ], "note": "The phrase 'used to oppress the elite' appears contextually likely to mean used by the elite to oppress others; public prose should avoid relying on the exact ASR wording.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0049", "segment_id": "seg-0049", "start": 3741.21, "end": 3807.46, "time_label": "1:02:21", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it will give you different scenarios. And we can all agree on which scenario we want. And therefore, we can agree on what action to take. Okay? So, this AI has to be part of a democratic system where everyone is inv..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0056" ], "note": "The phrase 'It's something that's going to happen tomorrow' likely means 'not something that's going to happen tomorrow' based on surrounding context.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-s-k6eswheqa@transcript:v1#seg-0056", "segment_id": "seg-0056", "start": 4253.86, "end": 4287.16, "time_label": "1:10:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And maybe at some point, we can share this dream of psychohistory. You know? I know it sounds very complicated. It's very abstract. But to make this work, you need a lot of people working together. Okay? And it's someth..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ] }