prediction
Jiang predicts eventual East Asian conflict but says it will not be primarily a U.S.-China Taiwan Strait war; it will involve Japan and South Korea.
Topic brief
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Taiwan
Jiang predicts eventual East Asian conflict but says it will not be primarily a U.S.-China Taiwan Strait war; it will involve Japan and South Korea.
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Key Notes
diagnosis
Jiang says America imagines China as a Taiwan threat because the military-industrial complex needs new enemies to justify defense spending.
diagnosis
Jiang says America loses little materially if China takes Taiwan; the core issue for America is imperial face and hubris.
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Timestamped Evidence
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"Okay. What starts these hurricanes? Or what starts this process? All right. So, if you look at an ocean, you will discover that these..."
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"...and South Korea. All right? It will not be over the Taiwan Strait. It will be between it will involve South Korea and Japan...."
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"...question. Why does the United States think that China will attack Taiwan? And the answer is that America is always looking to start new..."
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"...that's a great question. So what happens if China takes over Taiwan? What does America lose? And the answer is not that much, okay?..."
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"...the Pacific Ocean. The First Island Chain includes South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Malaysia. That blocks China from reaching out into the..."
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"...States and China will go to war at some point over Taiwan. It means a lot of people expect that China wants to challenge..."
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"...be potentially major flashpoints. The first flashpoint is, of course, over Taiwan. Because China believes that Taiwan is part of its territory. And so,..."
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"...possibility Japan cannot permit. So Japan would fight to ensure that Taiwan and China were never to unify."
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"...has no choice but to fight. Because, again, if China and Taiwan were to unify peacefully, Japan would be cut off from the entirety..."
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"...Okay. Right? Oil, minerals, all that. Yeah. So, if China and Taiwan were to unify, basically, Japan would feel a bit threatened."
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"Yeah. So, that's the first flashpoint, okay? Taiwan. There's another flashpoint, which is the Strait of Malacca, right? Because, again, America wants to control..."
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"...becoming a real quagmire, will what's happened deter China from invading Taiwan, for example? I think that given the current geopolitical outlook, and given..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
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History is not a cycle, and it is not a line moving politely toward truth.
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