model
Public opinion does not matter in geopolitics; power matters, as shown by empires later worshiped despite violence.
Topic brief
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Public opinion
Public opinion does not matter in geopolitics; power matters, as shown by empires later worshiped despite violence.
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Key Notes
prediction
Jiang says that as the war continues, more incidents will be failures that Donald Trump and the American military spin as tremendous successes, causing Americans to believe the war is going well.
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model
The counterfactual model says nonintervention would have let Russia overextend, lose logistics and public support, and give Ukraine a better chance of winning through guerrilla and probing attacks.
model
Senate confirmation works in Jiang’s account because fear of public embarrassment and norms inhibit presidential favoritism more than formal rules alone.
diagnosis
In response to David, Jiang says most Russians do not want war, and at most about 10 percent actively think Putinism is a great idea, but determined minorities can direct history.
prediction
Jiang predicts that even with large antiwar protests, most Americans would support the invasion after the speech.
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model
He introduces a long-war model with economic pressure as a domestic distraction, including reduced public willingness to sustain foreign conflict when costs rise.
Timestamped Evidence
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"I think I think that we will be slowly desensitized, normalized into another forever war in Iran. So what we're looking at right now..."
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"Cuba is definitely on the menu. So Trump will want to take over Cuba at some point. So you're distracting the population. The third..."
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"...Judaica? Okay. Okay. So this is confusing for people, but like public opinion does not matter in geopolitics. Rome was this genocidal state. No..."
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"...They're genocidal. We still worship the British empire today. Okay? So public opinion does not matter. We've come to this delusion that our opinions..."
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"Okay. That's a great um question to answer is they will never ever learn. Okay? Because they live in a different reality. Okay? So..."
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"So today. I want to focus on the war in Ukraine. I want to talk about Putin specifically. From a Game Theory perspective, this..."
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"Throughout Eastern Ukraine, and in about six months time, they're able to encircle Odessa. And if they capture Odessa, then the entire Eastern Ukraine..."
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"And popular opinion turns against Putin. And now it's very hard for Putin to sustain this war. There's no strategy moving forward. The Russian..."
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"I answer that the necessity of their cooperation with the government is to ensure that would have a powerful, though in general, silent operation...."
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"Okay? The power of public opinion, it's very, very strong. But what's important is that on norms and values. As long as people buy..."
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"Right? No one would have his genius and authority and ruthlessness. Okay? Does that make sense? All right. All right. And David, you had..."
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"Okay? At most you have 10%. Most people are like, we want peace. We want to live our lives. I have children. I want..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
Reading
The midterm turns a ceasefire into a world model: history moves like a river, eschatology makes prophecy into a plan, and the people who survive collapse are not the ones with the best machines...
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Reading
A source-grounded reading of the episode's central claim: American war culture has learned to convert military failure into rescue spectacle, while real wars are still decided by economics, organization, logistics, and endurance.
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Reading
The episode begins with two escalations: Ukraine expands, Iran heats up.
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America begins here as a cure for civilization: a clean-slate game built from Enlightenment rights, self-help, property, and fair rules.
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Reading
A source-grounded reading of the lecture's central claim: the Iran war that looks like American domination is the moment the United States becomes trapped, because geography, supply, domestic politics, sunk cost, and nuclear deterrence...
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Reading
Jiang treats the Iran shock as a long-cycle pressure system: initial strikes fail, the state shifts to durable economic coercion, and public attention is expected to absorb scarcity, distraction, and control mechanisms as this...
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