model
The counterfactual model says nonintervention would have let Russia overextend, lose logistics and public support, and give Ukraine a better chance of winning through guerrilla and probing attacks.
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Counterfactual
The counterfactual model says nonintervention would have let Russia overextend, lose logistics and public support, and give Ukraine a better chance of winning through guerrilla and probing attacks.
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Key Notes
diagnosis
Jiang argues, controversially, that Stalin intentionally let Hitler invade and intentionally let millions of Soviet soldiers be captured to create the only strategic path to Soviet victory.
model
In Jiang's game-theory counterfactual, the only Soviet-winning scenario is Germany invading deeply enough to threaten Moscow; Soviet offensive or shallow defensive outcomes would push America against the USSR or let both sides bleed.
prediction
Jiang argues that if Robespierre had seized the crown like Napoleon, the French Revolution would have failed and lost world-historical force.
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model
Jiang argues that absent Stalin's maneuvering, the expected 1945 outcome was a partitioned and colonized Soviet Union, with the threat of global communism destroyed.
model
Jiang says if the Soviets attacked first and reached Berlin, Japan, Britain, and the United States would unite against the Soviet Union and the Soviet Union would lose.
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model
Jiang says if Germans attacked and Soviets stopped them at the border, the other powers would let Germany and the Soviet Union destroy each other.
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Timestamped Evidence
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"...-defeating. So to understand why, we're going to use Game Theory counterfactual and compare it to what actually happened. So. Let's start with Ukrainian..."
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"Throughout Eastern Ukraine, and in about six months time, they're able to encircle Odessa. And if they capture Odessa, then the entire Eastern Ukraine..."
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"And popular opinion turns against Putin. And now it's very hard for Putin to sustain this war. There's no strategy moving forward. The Russian..."
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"As the Germans are advancing, the Soviets should push back. But Stalin orders the army to stay where they are. So they get encircled..."
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"But I'm going to make you this argument. Stalin purposefully did both things. Stalin purposely let Hitler invade. And Stalin purposely let millions of..."
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"Different outcomes. Okay? So let's just say, so everyone knows the Soviet Union and Germany is going to go to war at some point...."
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"Scenario three. Germany invades the Soviet Union and is stopped at the border. And this is a scenario the Americans are laughing their heads..."
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"Okay? Does that make sense? He can never be confident that this will work out in the end. But because he took that leap..."
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"And the Soviet Union has a lot of oil, right? So here comes Japan. Germany would love to destroy the Soviet Union because Nazis..."
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"Okay? These powers would have invaded the country together and colonized the Soviet Union and destroyed the threat of global communism once and for..."
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"Okay? Which is actually what happened. All right? So these are four possible different scenarios that could have happened in June 1941. All right?..."
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"Do you understand? Okay? Now let's go look at B. The Soviets invade, but the Germans stop them at the border. Okay? The Soviet..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
Reading
The episode begins with two escalations: Ukraine expands, Iran heats up.
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Robespierre is not read as a dictator who simply loses control.
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