model
Jiang’s Iran-war prediction rests on a decline-of-empire model in which late empires choose reckless wars because hubris makes them underestimate cost and terrain.
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Historical Pattern
Jiang’s Iran-war prediction rests on a decline-of-empire model in which late empires choose reckless wars because hubris makes them underestimate cost and terrain.
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Key Notes
Timestamped Evidence
Transcript
"I think that's what's going to happen right so um in school I teach history and I try to teach world history an entirety..."
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"because of this uh invasion and so a pattern emerges where empires in decline they tend to engage in risky um Wars that they..."
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"where is it coming from history history historical patterns yes historical patterns yes yeah but do you think that some someone would have to..."
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"...to power, U.S.-Iran conflict, and U.S. losing that war based on historical patterns and game theory. Welcome back to the show, Professor Zhang. Good..."
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"...political will to win the war. So just by studying some historical patterns, I came to the conclusion that America will probably lose this..."
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"...occultists, who try to read the river or try to read historical patterns in history and they create something called an eschatology. Okay. So..."
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"...that the old can maintain their power. Okay? And that's a historical pattern. Okay, civil war, AI, Republicans, finance, Democrats. Okay, absolutely correct in..."
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"...is doing deep analysis and trying to tie current events to historical patterns and try to offer some insight and clarity as to how..."
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"...ourselves, does the Battle of the Canal fit into a larger historical pattern? Okay? Second question we ask is, does it make sense according..."
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"...which I call predictive history. Okay. The first is to understand historical patterns. And so when you try to look at history and the..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
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PBD brings Jiang on to challenge the viral Iran prediction.
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