He says the invading troops are encircled because Iran's mountainous geography makes the country a fortress and makes extraction difficult once troops are inserted.
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Encirclement
A transcript-matched topic anchored by excerpts such as "...on right because remember Russia fights a war really slowly and encirclement of Odessa would be a very drawn -out process um so um..."
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Key Notes
Jiang says Odessa would be a drawn-out encirclement because Russia fights wars slowly.
Jiang says an Iranian strategist would read the US-Qatar and Pakistan-Saudi arrangements together with the Saudi-Iran rivalry as evidence that Iran is being encircled by states that could be used to justify war or regime change.
Timestamped Evidence
"...on right because remember Russia fights a war really slowly and encirclement of Odessa would be a very drawn -out process um so um..."
"Yeah, I think that if you're an Iranian strategist, then you know you're being surrounded. So not only this treaty between United States and..."
"You know why? Because Iran are all mountains. It's a fortress. Okay? Meaning that to get these troops into the country, you have to..."
"...naturally. Because the next phase of this war is the Russian encirclement of Odessa. If Russians are able to take Odessa, Ukraine is finished...."
"...Germans were really spread out throughout the front. That allows for encirclement, okay? That allows for the Soviets to attack them from different angles..."
"...off their supply routes. They don't know how to respond to encirclement. Okay? So the French, for many years, was just destroying the enemies..."
"...time of war. The first is mass forces. B is avoid encirclement, right? And the third is protect supply lines. Now, the important idea..."
"...traditional military doctrine, you have three principles. Right? Mass forces, avoid encirclement, protect supply lines. Okay? These are three things you must absolutely obey..."
"...war? You guys know? Let's go back to mass forces, avoid encirclement, protect supply lines."
"...principle. Second principle is the idea of you want to avoid encirclement. Okay? The worst thing that can happen to your soldiers is if..."
"...when we fight this war. How are we going to avoid encirclement? How are we going to amass forces? How will we protect supply..."
"...This is a theory, guys. Whereas this idea, mass forces, avoid encirclement, protect supply lines, we've been doing this for like thousands of years...."
Relevant Lectures And Readings
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The episode begins with two escalations: Ukraine expands, Iran heats up.
Napoleon looks like the genius of the French Revolution because he gives history its most cinematic image: speed, war, destiny, empire.
A source-grounded reading of the lecture's central claim: the Iran war that looks like American domination is the moment the United States becomes trapped, because geography, supply, domestic politics, sunk cost, and nuclear deterrence...
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