{ "generated_by": "Generated by ops/scripts/compile-content.mjs. Do not edit by hand.", "generated_at": "deterministic", "slug": "predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o", "id": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o", "source_class": "episode", "collection": "episodes", "title": "Geo-Strategy #6: America's Imperial Hubris", "source_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o", "video_id": "JieFC4Yww4o", "embed_url": "https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/JieFC4Yww4o", "published_at": "2024-05-22", "recorded_at": null, "date_precision": "day", "date_label": "2024-05-22, day precision", "chronology_status": "dated", "channel": { "id": "UC11aHtNnc5bEPLI4jf6mnYg", "handle": "@PredictiveHistory", "title": "Predictive History", "url": "https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC11aHtNnc5bEPLI4jf6mnYg" }, "path_base": "/episodes", "path": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_path": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/", "data_url": "/data/lens/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o.json", "counts": { "semantic_passes": 6, "interactions": 24, "speaker_notes": 6, "claims": 27, "signature_moments": 23, "predictions": 3, "models": 6, "glossary_terms": 19, "chronology_notes": 6, "uncertainty_notes": 11, "glossary_candidates": 19, "transcript_segments": 46, "transcript_words": 7310, "duration_seconds": 3367.68, "duration_label": "56:07" }, "paths": { "source": "content/sources/videos/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/source.yaml", "transcript": "content/sources/videos/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcripts/v1/transcript.clean.jsonl", "semantic_bundle": "content/lens/evidence/videos/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o.semantic.json", "semantic_passes": [ "content/workflow/proposals/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/packet-0001.semantic.json", "content/workflow/proposals/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/packet-0002.semantic.json", "content/workflow/proposals/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/packet-0003.semantic.json", "content/workflow/proposals/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/packet-0004.semantic.json", "content/workflow/proposals/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/packet-0005.semantic.json", "content/workflow/proposals/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/packet-0006.semantic.json" ], "read": "content/lens/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/read.json" }, "read": { "id": "episode-read:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o:v1", "kind": "episode-read", "schema_version": 2, "source_id": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o", "slug": "predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o", "title": "Shock and Awe Made Empire Feel Like a Game", "subtitle": "A cleaned reading of Geo-Strategy #6", "read_time": "13 min", "editorial_mode": "distilled-lecture", "voice_policy": "Direct argumentative prose derived from the lecture. Avoid repeated third-person framing. Do not impersonate first-person authorship except when quoting verified source material.", "trace_policy": "Paragraph-level transcript refs. Speculative claims stay marked as speculative.", "dek": "A source-grounded reading of the lecture's central claim: America mistook Iraq's one-off success for a universal doctrine, built an empire without guilt through hidden special forces, and now carries that hubris toward Iran.", "thesis": "The lecture moves from a future Iran war back through Iraq, Vietnam, and the first Gulf War to explain why the U.S. military would accept a reckless escalation. Shock and awe looked like proof that technology, air power, and special forces could make war quick, cheap, and decisive. But Jiang's argument is that Iraq was a special case, Vietnam taught the military to escape the shackles of democracy, and inherited empire turned restraint into boredom. The result is a doctrine that lets America imagine itself as God, everywhere at once, blowing things up for no reason.", "opening": { "heading": "Core Reading", "text": "The Iraq War did not simply teach America that it could win. It taught America the wrong lesson about why it had won. A unique battlefield became a universal doctrine. A desert war against a weakened regime became proof that technology could replace mass, that special forces could replace public consent, and that empire could act without calling itself empire. Once war starts looking like a video game, the people who inherit power no longer have to know what war is.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "marks": [ { "text": "A unique battlefield became a universal doctrine. A desert war against a weakened regime became proof that technology could replace mass", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0012" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:shock-awe-mistakes-performance-for-strategy" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 451.36, "end": 535.64, "time_label": "7:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And the Pentagon was like, you guys are insane. This is not going to work. This is a theory, guys. Whereas this idea, mass forces, avoid encirclement, protect supply lines, we've been doing this for like thousands..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 676.24, "end": 758.58, "time_label": "11:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it was true. So what was happening was that special forces could drive around and look for military installations by themselves. Okay? We're talking like a few people. And then they could order in an airstrike. Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 815.79, "end": 893.13, "time_label": "13:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "you would turn my people into terrorists you would empower Iran so there's no way that America could overthrow me would want to overthrow me so let me just focus my resources on suppressing internal dissent okay so he c..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:shock-awe-mistakes-performance-for-strategy", "valid": true, "concept": "strategy-material-test", "title": null, "doc_title": "When War Becomes A Story Instead Of A Material Test", "doc_slug": "lens/when-war-becomes-a-story-instead-of-a-material-test", "url": "/lens/when-war-becomes-a-story-instead-of-a-material-test/#shock-awe-mistakes-performance-for-strategy", "text": "Shock and awe becomes strategic fantasy when a spectacular success is treated as proof that performance, precision, speed, and godlike visibility have replaced mass, terrain, supply, duration, and enemy adaptation.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ] } ] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 451.36, "end": 535.64, "time_label": "7:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And the Pentagon was like, you guys are insane. This is not going to work. This is a theory, guys. Whereas this idea, mass forces, avoid encirclement, protect supply lines, we've been doing this for like thousands..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 676.24, "end": 758.58, "time_label": "11:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it was true. So what was happening was that special forces could drive around and look for military installations by themselves. Okay? We're talking like a few people. And then they could order in an airstrike. Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3264.49, "end": 3328.64, "time_label": "54:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "What's the difference between the people who believe in the first theory and the second theory? Okay? Okay. And the answer is this. The people who believe in the, in the first theory came from an older generation. Okay?..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3328.74, "end": 3367.68, "time_label": "55:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "It was just like, things being, getting blown up. Okay? You don't actually see the people dying. And again, only 20 people died, 20 soldiers died in the, in 2003. Okay? So, in other words, unfortunately, America is head..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, "beats": [ { "id": "iran-question", "heading": "The Iran Question Begins In Iraq", "time_range": "00:01-05:01", "summary": "The lecture opens with a future war question and then returns to the 2003 Iraq invasion as the source of the military's willingness.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "iran-question-001", "text": "The immediate question is not whether Trump would want war with Iran. The question is whether the military would go along. The Pentagon must implement the war, and if the military resists, the political desire for war becomes much harder to execute. The answer offered here is that the military will go along because its imagination was reorganized by what happened in Iraq in 2003.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0001" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 1.1, "end": 77.2, "time_label": "0:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Let's start class. So, last week, we discussed the possibility that Trump will become president, and we discussed that if he does become president in a second term, there will be a very strong likelihood that the United..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] }, { "id": "iran-question-002", "text": "The older Pentagon model is concrete and material. To invade a country, you need mass forces, protection from encirclement, and supply lines. You do not merely advance; you hold territory, resupply soldiers, maintain reserves, and keep oil, fuel, weapons, and food moving. If the enemy has hundreds of thousands of soldiers, the old rule says you need overwhelming numbers.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0003" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 77.2, "end": 160.057, "time_label": "1:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "and his people, Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, and his deputy, Paul Wolfowitz, they want this war. And they go to the Pentagon and say, listen, we want this war, give us a plan. And th..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 160.057, "end": 224.26, "time_label": "2:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you need to advance, but you also need to hold territory, as well as resupply your troops and have reserves, okay? So the general rule of thumb is that if your enemy has 300,000 soldiers, you need about a million, ok..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] }, { "id": "iran-question-003", "text": "That is why the Rumsfeld-Wolfowitz demand looked insane to the generals. The Pentagon's experience said Iraq required something near a million soldiers. The civilian leadership kept telling planners to go lower until the war plan used roughly 100,000 to 130,000 troops. In conventional terms, this meant fighting outnumbered, exposed to encirclement, and unable to protect the basic logistics of occupation.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 224.26, "end": 301.5, "time_label": "3:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Pentagon for a plan, the Pentagon went to the drawing board and said, to invade Iraq properly, we need about a million soldiers, okay? And Donald Rumsfeld, who was Secretary of Defense, and his deputy, Wolfert, said, no..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ], "start": 1, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 1.1, "end": 77.2, "time_label": "0:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Let's start class. So, last week, we discussed the possibility that Trump will become president, and we discussed that if he does become president in a second term, there will be a very strong likelihood that the United..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 77.2, "end": 160.057, "time_label": "1:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "and his people, Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, and his deputy, Paul Wolfowitz, they want this war. And they go to the Pentagon and say, listen, we want this war, give us a plan. And th..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 160.057, "end": 224.26, "time_label": "2:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you need to advance, but you also need to hold territory, as well as resupply your troops and have reserves, okay? So the general rule of thumb is that if your enemy has 300,000 soldiers, you need about a million, ok..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 224.26, "end": 301.5, "time_label": "3:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Pentagon for a plan, the Pentagon went to the drawing board and said, to invade Iraq properly, we need about a million soldiers, okay? And Donald Rumsfeld, who was Secretary of Defense, and his deputy, Wolfert, said, no..." } ] }, { "id": "shock-and-awe-fantasy", "heading": "The Fantasy That Worked", "time_range": "05:01-09:59", "summary": "Shock and awe replaces mass with a theory of command collapse, omniscient surveillance, air supremacy, and special forces.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "shock-and-awe-fantasy-001", "text": "Shock and awe begins as an anatomical fantasy of command. An army is imagined as a hierarchy with a head, a body, arms, and legs. If the head can be cut off, the whole army falls apart. Air supremacy controls the sky. Technological omniscience sees and hears everything on the ground. Special forces enter enemy territory and point air power where it should strike.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "marks": [ { "text": "If the head can be cut off, the whole army falls apart.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 301.5, "end": 379.44, "time_label": "5:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "the way, professional soldiers, they've never really fought a war before, they're like, well, we have this theory, a new theory of war called shock and awe. Okay? And the idea of shock and awe is that all militaries are..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "text": "Technological omniscience sees and hears everything on the ground.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 301.5, "end": 379.44, "time_label": "5:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "the way, professional soldiers, they've never really fought a war before, they're like, well, we have this theory, a new theory of war called shock and awe. Okay? And the idea of shock and awe is that all militaries are..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 379.44, "end": 450.54, "time_label": "6:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They can see everything on Earth. They can see everything on the Earth. We have technology that allows us to eavesdrop on all electronic communications. When you talk on the phone, we can hear exactly what you're saying..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 301.5, "end": 379.44, "time_label": "5:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "the way, professional soldiers, they've never really fought a war before, they're like, well, we have this theory, a new theory of war called shock and awe. Okay? And the idea of shock and awe is that all militaries are..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 379.44, "end": 450.54, "time_label": "6:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They can see everything on Earth. They can see everything on the Earth. We have technology that allows us to eavesdrop on all electronic communications. When you talk on the phone, we can hear exactly what you're saying..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "shock-and-awe-fantasy-002", "text": "The promise is not only military success. It is war without the old burden of war: quick, cheap, and decisive. To the Pentagon this sounds like fantasy because mass, encirclement, and supply are not theories; they are hard historical experience. But the civilian leadership insists that the fantasy be tried.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0007" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 379.44, "end": 450.54, "time_label": "6:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They can see everything on Earth. They can see everything on the Earth. We have technology that allows us to eavesdrop on all electronic communications. When you talk on the phone, we can hear exactly what you're saying..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 451.36, "end": 535.64, "time_label": "7:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And the Pentagon was like, you guys are insane. This is not going to work. This is a theory, guys. Whereas this idea, mass forces, avoid encirclement, protect supply lines, we've been doing this for like thousands..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] }, { "id": "shock-and-awe-fantasy-003", "text": "Then the dangerous thing happens: the fantasy appears to work. The war lasts three weeks. The United States destroys a much larger Iraqi army with far fewer troops. U.S. casualties are low, while Iraqi casualties are enormous. The thunder runs through Baghdad look like domination so excessive it becomes performance, like a fighter so bored by his opponent that he does a backflip.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "marks": [ { "text": "The thunder runs through Baghdad look like domination so excessive it becomes performance, like a fighter so bored by his opponent that he does a backflip.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:shock-awe-mistakes-performance-for-strategy" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 535.74, "end": 599.14, "time_label": "8:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It was accidental. This is insane. This has never happened before. Only 200 American soldiers died, at most, whereas tens of thousands of Iraqi soldiers died. Okay? And the third thing that was most impressive is..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:shock-awe-mistakes-performance-for-strategy", "valid": true, "concept": "strategy-material-test", "title": null, "doc_title": "When War Becomes A Story Instead Of A Material Test", "doc_slug": "lens/when-war-becomes-a-story-instead-of-a-material-test", "url": "/lens/when-war-becomes-a-story-instead-of-a-material-test/#shock-awe-mistakes-performance-for-strategy", "text": "Shock and awe becomes strategic fantasy when a spectacular success is treated as proof that performance, precision, speed, and godlike visibility have replaced mass, terrain, supply, duration, and enemy adaptation.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ] } ] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 451.36, "end": 535.64, "time_label": "7:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? 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When you talk on the phone, we can hear exactly what you're saying..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 451.36, "end": 535.64, "time_label": "7:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And the Pentagon was like, you guys are insane. This is not going to work. This is a theory, guys. Whereas this idea, mass forces, avoid encirclement, protect supply lines, we've been doing this for like thousands..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 535.74, "end": 599.14, "time_label": "8:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It was accidental. This is insane. This has never happened before. Only 200 American soldiers died, at most, whereas tens of thousands of Iraqi soldiers died. Okay? 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They secretly got together and t..." } ] }, { "id": "escape-democracy", "heading": "Escaping The Shackles Of Democracy", "time_range": "30:35-42:18", "summary": "Vietnam teaches the military to seek a doctrine that removes casualties, consent, and visible suffering from war.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "escape-democracy-001", "text": "Vietnam is unwinnable in this telling because the enemy is not where conventional force needs it to be. The insurgents move through tunnels, disappear after attacks, pick up dropped ammunition, turn unexploded bombs into land mines, and receive weapons through corruption. It is as if they can swim underground. More force does not solve the problem because the force keeps feeding the system it is trying to destroy.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "marks": [ { "text": "as if they can swim underground.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1835.02, "end": 1902.42, "time_label": "30:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You couldn't win this war, okay? And the reason why is that these Vietnamese peasants, they were unbeatable. Because what they were doing was they were digging tunnels underground. And then when American soldiers were c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1902.96, "end": 1968.6, "time_label": "31:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You're now arming the enemy, right? Because these peasants would pick up these ammo and use it themselves. That's the first thing. Second thing is that the U.S. military dropped more bombs on Vietnam than in World War I..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1835.02, "end": 1902.42, "time_label": "30:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You couldn't win this war, okay? And the reason why is that these Vietnamese peasants, they were unbeatable. Because what they were doing was they were digging tunnels underground. And then when American soldiers were c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1902.96, "end": 1968.6, "time_label": "31:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You're now arming the enemy, right? Because these peasants would pick up these ammo and use it themselves. That's the first thing. Second thing is that the U.S. military dropped more bombs on Vietnam than in World War I..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1968.6, "end": 2034.02, "time_label": "32:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "yourself, no matter how much weapons you can bring into this country, how are you going to win this war? The other thing is that these peasants were getting angry at you because obviously in this war, you're killing a l..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "escape-democracy-002", "text": "The motive that remains is credibility. Leaders stay because leaving would mean admitting that peasants in pajamas can beat them. That is the humiliation they cannot tolerate. When the Pentagon Papers become public, the anger is not just about failure. It is about deception, purposeless war, and a state continuing violence to avoid being laughed at.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "marks": [ { "text": "peasants in pajamas can beat them.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2034.02, "end": 2109.227, "time_label": "33:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "from Vietnam, if we admit that peasants in pajamas can beat us, Soviet Union would laugh at us. China would laugh at us. The entire world would laugh at us. We don't want to be laughed at. So that's why we're staying in..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1968.6, "end": 2034.02, "time_label": "32:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "yourself, no matter how much weapons you can bring into this country, how are you going to win this war? The other thing is that these peasants were getting angry at you because obviously in this war, you're killing a l..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2034.02, "end": 2109.227, "time_label": "33:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "from Vietnam, if we admit that peasants in pajamas can beat us, Soviet Union would laugh at us. China would laugh at us. The entire world would laugh at us. We don't want to be laughed at. So that's why we're staying in..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "escape-democracy-003", "text": "Shock and awe is the response. It minimizes U.S. casualties, hides enemy casualties by blowing bodies apart or keeping them offscreen, moves quickly enough that protest cannot organize, and uses special forces without the consent of the people. It is the empire escaping the shackles of democracy. The problem is not only tactical. It is constitutional: the war machine wants to protect empire without letting democracy interfere.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "marks": [ { "text": "the empire escaping the shackles of democracy.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2195.1, "end": 2277.86, "time_label": "36:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Shock and awe means that America no longer has to make any sacrifices. You no longer need the consent of the people to fight the war. You don't even need congressional approval to fight the war. You can now escape the s..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2109.227, "end": 2194.84, "time_label": "35:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And so the Pentagon felt betrayed by democracy. The politicians were more concerned about winning elections than about winning wars, okay? People could protest and defy the military. They refused to make the sacrifices..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2195.1, "end": 2277.86, "time_label": "36:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Shock and awe means that America no longer has to make any sacrifices. You no longer need the consent of the people to fight the war. You don't even need congressional approval to fight the war. You can now escape the s..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "escape-democracy-004", "text": "The student objections sharpen the model. If shock and awe works only in Iraq, the answer is terrain: much of the recent U.S. war record has been in Middle Eastern deserts, while Iran is mountainous. If America lost Iraq and Afghanistan because of insurgency, the answer is design: shock and awe is not meant to stabilize countries. It is meant to topple and destroy them so no regional power can challenge American supremacy.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "marks": [ { "text": "It is meant to topple and destroy them", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2362.89, "end": 2418.902, "time_label": "39:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, so, okay, that's a great point, okay? You can make the point that America for the past 20 years have lost all wars in Iraq and Afghanistan because they have not been able to control the insurgency, okay? But the p..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2277.86, "end": 2362.51, "time_label": "37:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And what would happen in other words? Okay, so the thing about America for the past 20 years, it's been mainly fighting wars in the Middle East. And it turns out the entire Middle East is a desert, okay? All right, so t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2362.89, "end": 2418.902, "time_label": "39:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, so, okay, that's a great point, okay? You can make the point that America for the past 20 years have lost all wars in Iraq and Afghanistan because they have not been able to control the insurgency, okay? But the p..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2418.902, "end": 2483.833, "time_label": "40:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it comes down to what is the ultimate design and intention of the empire? Is it to replace regimes? Or is it to destroy countries? And you make the argument that shock and awe is really designed to destroy countries..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2483.833, "end": 2538.344, "time_label": "41:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The third thing is that the very first thing the American government did when they took control over Iraq is something called depopulation, okay? Which is to say that if you used to work for the old government, you're n..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 1835, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1835.02, "end": 1902.42, "time_label": "30:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You couldn't win this war, okay? And the reason why is that these Vietnamese peasants, they were unbeatable. Because what they were doing was they were digging tunnels underground. And then when American soldiers were c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1902.96, "end": 1968.6, "time_label": "31:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You're now arming the enemy, right? Because these peasants would pick up these ammo and use it themselves. That's the first thing. 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So that's why we're staying in..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2109.227, "end": 2194.84, "time_label": "35:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And so the Pentagon felt betrayed by democracy. The politicians were more concerned about winning elections than about winning wars, okay? People could protest and defy the military. They refused to make the sacrifices..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2195.1, "end": 2277.86, "time_label": "36:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Shock and awe means that America no longer has to make any sacrifices. You no longer need the consent of the people to fight the war. You don't even need congressional approval to fight the war. 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But the p..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2418.902, "end": 2483.833, "time_label": "40:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it comes down to what is the ultimate design and intention of the empire? Is it to replace regimes? Or is it to destroy countries? And you make the argument that shock and awe is really designed to destroy countries..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2483.833, "end": 2538.344, "time_label": "41:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The third thing is that the very first thing the American government did when they took control over Iraq is something called depopulation, okay? Which is to say that if you used to work for the old government, you're n..." } ] }, { "id": "two-theories", "heading": "Two Theories Of Empire", "time_range": "42:18-49:41", "summary": "The lecture contrasts a restrained post-1991 order with the post-2003 imperial inheritance that fires the advisors.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "two-theories-001", "text": "The first theory of empire appears after the Soviet collapse. America is the only hegemon, but in the 1991 Gulf War it limits the objective to removing Saddam Hussein from Kuwait, works through partners, and operates under U.N. authority. Its language is responsibility: power should show humility, discipline, and restraint so the rules-based order remains legitimate.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2538.344, "end": 2620.7, "time_label": "42:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay, but this is something we will discuss later on, okay? In another class, okay? All right, all right. Let's now move to the last topic. Which is the theory of empire. So this is not the first t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2621.17, "end": 2687.98, "time_label": "43:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Whereas in the Persian Gulf War, led by the father, right, George Herbert Walker Bush, the first and only goal was to remove Saddam Hussein from Kuwait. That's it, okay? We're not gonna go to Iraq and topple Saddam Huss..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2688.42, "end": 2762.78, "time_label": "44:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The United States had to go and make a case to the United Nations. The United Nations gave its consent to the military action, okay? So the United States made the argument that this is not a U.S. military action. It is..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] }, { "id": "two-theories-002", "text": "The second theory is shock and awe: unlimited strategic goals, unilateral action, and rule-making by force. It does not ask how to rule forever by appearing restrained. It asks why the greatest power in the world should accept restraints at all. That is why the transition needs an analogy about inheritance.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2764.67, "end": 2838.893, "time_label": "46:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will only do so with partners. And we will only do so under the umbrella of U.N. authority, okay? So this is the first theory of empire. When you think about it, wow, great! What a wonderful world, right? Here's a qu..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] }, { "id": "two-theories-003", "text": "Empire is imagined as a fortune left to a son. The father built it through intelligence, work, corruption, and competent advisors. The heir is promised effortless income if he listens to the people who know how the machine works. But inherited power produces contempt for the discipline that created it. The first thing he does is fire the advisors. The second is hire his friends.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "marks": [ { "text": "The first thing he does is fire the advisors.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2913.26, "end": 2981.29, "time_label": "48:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And you know what? They're going to give you every year, Jack, $100 million to do whatever you want. You want to go buy an airplane? Do that. You want to go buy an island? Do that. You want to party with movie stars? Do..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2838.893, "end": 2912.94, "time_label": "47:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Jack is my son, okay? And I'm a billionaire. I have $10 billion. Why do I have $10 billion? It's because, one, I'm smart, okay? I'm smarter than everyone else. Two, I work really hard, okay? And three, I bribe a lot..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2913.26, "end": 2981.29, "time_label": "48:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And you know what? They're going to give you every year, Jack, $100 million to do whatever you want. You want to go buy an airplane? Do that. You want to go buy an island? Do that. You want to party with movie stars? Do..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "start": 2538, "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2538.344, "end": 2620.7, "time_label": "42:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay, but this is something we will discuss later on, okay? In another class, okay? All right, all right. Let's now move to the last topic. Which is the theory of empire. So this is not the first t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2621.17, "end": 2687.98, "time_label": "43:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Whereas in the Persian Gulf War, led by the father, right, George Herbert Walker Bush, the first and only goal was to remove Saddam Hussein from Kuwait. That's it, okay? We're not gonna go to Iraq and topple Saddam Huss..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2688.42, "end": 2762.78, "time_label": "44:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The United States had to go and make a case to the United Nations. The United Nations gave its consent to the military action, okay? So the United States made the argument that this is not a U.S. military action. It is..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2764.67, "end": 2838.893, "time_label": "46:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will only do so with partners. And we will only do so under the umbrella of U.N. authority, okay? So this is the first theory of empire. When you think about it, wow, great! What a wonderful world, right? Here's a qu..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2838.893, "end": 2912.94, "time_label": "47:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Jack is my son, okay? And I'm a billionaire. I have $10 billion. Why do I have $10 billion? It's because, one, I'm smart, okay? I'm smarter than everyone else. Two, I work really hard, okay? And three, I bribe a lot..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2913.26, "end": 2981.29, "time_label": "48:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And you know what? They're going to give you every year, Jack, $100 million to do whatever you want. You want to go buy an airplane? Do that. You want to go buy an island? Do that. You want to party with movie stars? Do..." } ] }, { "id": "hubris", "heading": "The Fun Of Hubris", "time_range": "49:42-56:08", "summary": "The final movement names the psychology of the second theory: inherited power, fun, overcommitment, strategic emptiness, and video-game war.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "paragraphs": [ { "id": "hubris-001", "text": "The heir does not want stewardship. He wants fun. That is the answer to why America abandons humility, discipline, and restraint. What is the point of having an empire if you cannot blow things up for no reason? The question is obscene because it is meant to be obscene. It names the pleasure of unconstrained inheritance.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "marks": [ { "text": "What is the point of having an empire if you cannot blow things up for no reason?", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3047.68, "end": 3122.63, "time_label": "50:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Why did they get rid of this and move to shock and awe, which is like, we'll do anything we want. Why? Why? Why would they do that? Because it's fun. Okay? Do you understand? What is the point of having an empire if you..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 2981.63, "end": 3046.82, "time_label": "49:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You're going to hire all your friends, okay? And what's the third thing you're going to do? You're going to do something really stupid, okay? You'll be like, you know what? My dad only made $10 billion. Those advisors o..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3047.68, "end": 3122.63, "time_label": "50:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Why did they get rid of this and move to shock and awe, which is like, we'll do anything we want. Why? Why? Why would they do that? Because it's fun. Okay? Do you understand? What is the point of having an empire if you..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "hubris-002", "text": "The doctrine then produces three failures. It overcommits because it believes shock and awe allows America to be God, everywhere at once, fighting all wars. It lacks strategy because maintaining empire replaces any specific objective. And it becomes hubristic because it cannot imagine challenge or defeat, even as the Navy shrinks, the military is smaller than in 1991, and manufacturing capacity no longer matches imperial ambition.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "marks": [ { "text": "It overcommits because it believes shock and awe allows America to be God, everywhere at once, fighting all wars. It lacks strategy because maintaining empire replaces any specific objective. And it becomes hubristic because it cannot imagine challenge or defeat", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "lens_points": [ "lens-point:shock-awe-mistakes-performance-for-strategy" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3047.68, "end": 3122.63, "time_label": "50:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Why did they get rid of this and move to shock and awe, which is like, we'll do anything we want. Why? Why? Why would they do that? Because it's fun. Okay? Do you understand? What is the point of having an empire if you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3122.93, "end": 3193.18, "time_label": "52:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So you don't actually have a strategy in place. Okay? And the third thing is hubris. You don't think anyone can challenge you. You don't think you can lose a war. Okay? And so, the idea of hubris is this. Right no..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3193.32, "end": 3263.62, "time_label": "53:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It's not, it doesn't have any factories anymore, which means that if it fights a war, it can't fight a war for a very long time. So, the example is that for every, for every ship that America makes, China can make..." } ], "lens_points_detail": [ { "id": "lens-point:shock-awe-mistakes-performance-for-strategy", "valid": true, "concept": "strategy-material-test", "title": null, "doc_title": "When War Becomes A Story Instead Of A Material Test", "doc_slug": "lens/when-war-becomes-a-story-instead-of-a-material-test", "url": "/lens/when-war-becomes-a-story-instead-of-a-material-test/#shock-awe-mistakes-performance-for-strategy", "text": "Shock and awe becomes strategic fantasy when a spectacular success is treated as proof that performance, precision, speed, and godlike visibility have replaced mass, terrain, supply, duration, and enemy adaptation.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ] } ] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3047.68, "end": 3122.63, "time_label": "50:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Why did they get rid of this and move to shock and awe, which is like, we'll do anything we want. Why? Why? Why would they do that? Because it's fun. Okay? Do you understand? What is the point of having an empire if you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3122.93, "end": 3193.18, "time_label": "52:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So you don't actually have a strategy in place. Okay? And the third thing is hubris. You don't think anyone can challenge you. You don't think you can lose a war. Okay? And so, the idea of hubris is this. Right no..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3193.32, "end": 3263.62, "time_label": "53:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It's not, it doesn't have any factories anymore, which means that if it fights a war, it can't fight a war for a very long time. So, the example is that for every, for every ship that America makes, China can make..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "id": "hubris-003", "text": "That returns the lecture to Iran. The military will agree to the war because it is overcommitted, strategically empty, and arrogant. But shock and awe will not work in Iran. This is left for the next class, but the warning is already clear: the doctrine born from a desert one-off is being carried toward terrain and conditions it was not built to master.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2277.86, "end": 2362.51, "time_label": "37:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And what would happen in other words? Okay, so the thing about America for the past 20 years, it's been mainly fighting wars in the Middle East. And it turns out the entire Middle East is a desert, okay? All right, so t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3193.32, "end": 3263.62, "time_label": "53:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It's not, it doesn't have any factories anymore, which means that if it fights a war, it can't fight a war for a very long time. So, the example is that for every, for every ship that America makes, China can make..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] }, { "id": "hubris-004", "text": "The final student question asks what separates believers in the first theory from believers in the second. The answer is war memory. The older generation fought World War II and the Cold War and knew war was bloody and terrible. The 2003 generation saw war as explosions on a screen, not bodies dying in front of them. They inherited a lot of money and wanted to enjoy it. That is why America is headed toward disaster.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "marks": [ { "text": "war as explosions on a screen, not bodies dying in front of them.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3264.49, "end": 3328.64, "time_label": "54:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "What's the difference between the people who believe in the first theory and the second theory? Okay? Okay. And the answer is this. The people who believe in the, in the first theory came from an older generation. Okay?..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3328.74, "end": 3367.68, "time_label": "55:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "It was just like, things being, getting blown up. Okay? You don't actually see the people dying. And again, only 20 people died, 20 soldiers died in the, in 2003. Okay? So, in other words, unfortunately, America is head..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3264.49, "end": 3328.64, "time_label": "54:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "What's the difference between the people who believe in the first theory and the second theory? Okay? Okay. And the answer is this. The people who believe in the, in the first theory came from an older generation. 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Right no..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3193.32, "end": 3263.62, "time_label": "53:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It's not, it doesn't have any factories anymore, which means that if it fights a war, it can't fight a war for a very long time. So, the example is that for every, for every ship that America makes, China can make..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3264.49, "end": 3328.64, "time_label": "54:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "What's the difference between the people who believe in the first theory and the second theory? Okay? Okay. And the answer is this. The people who believe in the, in the first theory came from an older generation. Okay?..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3328.74, "end": 3367.68, "time_label": "55:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "It was just like, things being, getting blown up. Okay? You don't actually see the people dying. And again, only 20 people died, 20 soldiers died in the, in 2003. Okay? So, in other words, unfortunately, America is head..." } ] } ], "questions": [ { "question": "Are there more special forces because more people want to be special forces, or because America needs more special forces?", "answer": "The answer given is both. After the Soviet Union collapsed, America no longer had a peer competitor and shifted toward fast, hidden wars against rogue regimes. That increased demand for special forces and moved more resources toward them.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0021" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1426.815, "end": 1517.493, "time_label": "23:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So shotgun all is really a theory of empire as opposed to a theory of war, okay? So does it make sense to you guys so far? Okay, any questions so far? Yeah? Okay, so Celina asked a great question. Are there, there's mor..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1517.493, "end": 1599.072, "time_label": "25:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And so a lot of the resources were shifted into special forces and that allowed more people to enter special forces, okay? Does that make sense? Okay, all right. Any more questions before I move on? All right. Now the q..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "The answer given is both. After the Soviet Union collapsed, America no longer had a peer competitor and shifted toward fast, hidden wars against rogue regimes. That increased demand for special forces and moved more resources toward them.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0021" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1426.815, "end": 1517.493, "time_label": "23:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So shotgun all is really a theory of empire as opposed to a theory of war, okay? So does it make sense to you guys so far? Okay, any questions so far? Yeah? Okay, so Celina asked a great question. Are there, there's mor..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1517.493, "end": 1599.072, "time_label": "25:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And so a lot of the resources were shifted into special forces and that allowed more people to enter special forces, okay? Does that make sense? Okay, all right. Any more questions before I move on? All right. Now the q..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "question": "If shock and awe only works in Iraq, what happens in other places?", "answer": "The lecture's answer is terrain. Iraq, Libya, and Syria are treated as desert contexts where air power, satellites, and special forces can move with advantage. Iran is different because it is mountainous, and Jiang says shock and awe will not work there.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2195.1, "end": 2277.86, "time_label": "36:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Shock and awe means that America no longer has to make any sacrifices. You no longer need the consent of the people to fight the war. You don't even need congressional approval to fight the war. You can now escape the s..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2277.86, "end": 2362.51, "time_label": "37:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And what would happen in other words? Okay, so the thing about America for the past 20 years, it's been mainly fighting wars in the Middle East. And it turns out the entire Middle East is a desert, okay? All right, so t..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "The lecture's answer is terrain. Iraq, Libya, and Syria are treated as desert contexts where air power, satellites, and special forces can move with advantage. Iran is different because it is mountainous, and Jiang says shock and awe will not work there.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2195.1, "end": 2277.86, "time_label": "36:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Shock and awe means that America no longer has to make any sacrifices. You no longer need the consent of the people to fight the war. You don't even need congressional approval to fight the war. You can now escape the s..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2277.86, "end": 2362.51, "time_label": "37:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And what would happen in other words? Okay, so the thing about America for the past 20 years, it's been mainly fighting wars in the Middle East. And it turns out the entire Middle East is a desert, okay? All right, so t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "question": "Did America lose Iraq and Afghanistan because it could not control insurgencies?", "answer": "Jiang accepts the objection but changes the frame. Shock and awe is not designed to stabilize countries. It is designed to topple and destroy them, leaving no functional regional power able to challenge American supremacy.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2277.86, "end": 2362.51, "time_label": "37:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And what would happen in other words? Okay, so the thing about America for the past 20 years, it's been mainly fighting wars in the Middle East. And it turns out the entire Middle East is a desert, okay? All right, so t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2362.89, "end": 2418.902, "time_label": "39:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, so, okay, that's a great point, okay? You can make the point that America for the past 20 years have lost all wars in Iraq and Afghanistan because they have not been able to control the insurgency, okay? But the p..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2418.902, "end": 2483.833, "time_label": "40:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it comes down to what is the ultimate design and intention of the empire? Is it to replace regimes? Or is it to destroy countries? And you make the argument that shock and awe is really designed to destroy countries..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "Jiang accepts the objection but changes the frame. Shock and awe is not designed to stabilize countries. It is designed to topple and destroy them, leaving no functional regional power able to challenge American supremacy.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0033" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2277.86, "end": 2362.51, "time_label": "37:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And what would happen in other words? Okay, so the thing about America for the past 20 years, it's been mainly fighting wars in the Middle East. And it turns out the entire Middle East is a desert, okay? All right, so t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2362.89, "end": 2418.902, "time_label": "39:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, so, okay, that's a great point, okay? You can make the point that America for the past 20 years have lost all wars in Iraq and Afghanistan because they have not been able to control the insurgency, okay? But the p..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2418.902, "end": 2483.833, "time_label": "40:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it comes down to what is the ultimate design and intention of the empire? Is it to replace regimes? Or is it to destroy countries? And you make the argument that shock and awe is really designed to destroy countries..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] }, { "question": "What is the difference between people who believe in the first theory and people who believe in the second?", "answer": "The first theory belongs to an older generation that knew war as blood, loss, and horror. The second belongs to a 2003 generation that saw war as video-game spectacle, inherited imperial wealth, and wanted to enjoy it.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3193.32, "end": 3263.62, "time_label": "53:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It's not, it doesn't have any factories anymore, which means that if it fights a war, it can't fight a war for a very long time. So, the example is that for every, for every ship that America makes, China can make..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3264.49, "end": 3328.64, "time_label": "54:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "What's the difference between the people who believe in the first theory and the second theory? Okay? Okay. And the answer is this. The people who believe in the, in the first theory came from an older generation. Okay?..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3328.74, "end": 3367.68, "time_label": "55:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "It was just like, things being, getting blown up. Okay? You don't actually see the people dying. And again, only 20 people died, 20 soldiers died in the, in 2003. Okay? So, in other words, unfortunately, America is head..." } ], "answer_paragraphs": [ { "text": "The first theory belongs to an older generation that knew war as blood, loss, and horror. The second belongs to a 2003 generation that saw war as video-game spectacle, inherited imperial wealth, and wanted to enjoy it.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3193.32, "end": 3263.62, "time_label": "53:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It's not, it doesn't have any factories anymore, which means that if it fights a war, it can't fight a war for a very long time. 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So, in other words, unfortunately, America is head..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [], "marks": [] } ] } ], "archive_note": "The archive keeps the imported transcript, boundary decisions, semantic packet outputs, and source refs. This page is the compressed reading layer; the transcript page remains available for auditing exact wording and noisy ASR spans.", "source_notes": [] }, "transcript": [ { "id": "seg-0001", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "start": 1.1, "end": 77.2, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Let's start class. So, last week, we discussed the possibility that Trump will become president, and we discussed that if he does become president in a second term, there will be a very strong likelihood that the United States will go to war with Iran. Now, the question today is, okay, Trump wants to go to war, but will the U.S. military agree? Ultimately, it is the Pentagon that must implement this war, and if there is enough opposition from the military, then it is very hard for Trump to push a war. I want to make the argument today that the military will go to war. It will go along with the war, and it has to do with what happened in 2003, okay? So let's go back to the last time that America fought a major war. It was the 2003 invasion of Iraq called Operation Iraqi Freedom, okay? So at that time, President George W. Bush", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-001", "start": 1.1, "end": 1.9, "text": "Let's start class.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-002", "start": 2.9, "end": 11.69, "text": "So, last week, we discussed the possibility that Trump will become president,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-003", "start": 11.89, "end": 17.17, "text": "and we discussed that if he does become president in a second", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-004", "start": 17.17, "end": 23.51, "text": "term, there will be a very strong likelihood that the United States", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-005", "start": 23.51, "end": 25.13, "text": "will go to war with Iran.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-006", "start": 25.13, "end": 29.16, "text": "Now, the question today is,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-007", "start": 29.46, "end": 31.7, "text": "okay, Trump wants to go to war,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-008", "start": 31.94, "end": 34.66, "text": "but will the U.S.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-009", "start": 34.66, "end": 35.78, "text": "military agree?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-010", "start": 36.75, "end": 41.37, "text": "Ultimately, it is the Pentagon that must implement this war,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-011", "start": 41.57, "end": 45.03, "text": "and if there is enough opposition from the military,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-012", "start": 45.33, "end": 50.89, "text": "then it is very hard for Trump to push a war.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-013", "start": 52.56, "end": 56.16, "text": "I want to make the argument today that the military will go", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-014", "start": 56.16, "end": 56.16, "text": "to war.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-015", "start": 56.16, "end": 57.16, "text": "It will go along with the war,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-016", "start": 57.28, "end": 60.88, "text": "and it has to do with what happened in 2003,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-017", "start": 61.08, "end": 66.04, "text": "okay? So let's go back to the last time that America fought", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-018", "start": 66.04, "end": 66.82, "text": "a major war.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-019", "start": 67, "end": 72.72, "text": "It was the 2003 invasion of Iraq called Operation Iraqi Freedom,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-020", "start": 72.9, "end": 75.72, "text": "okay? So at that time,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-021", "start": 75.76, "end": 76.88, "text": "President George W.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0001-chunk-022", "start": 77, "end": 77.2, "text": "Bush", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "89a916c85b5768dd424d3b28c25285e6749677279f811151f5414528c6ba71a8", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0001", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=1s", "time_label": "0:01", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0002", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "start": 77.2, "end": 160.057, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "and his people, Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, and his deputy, Paul Wolfowitz, they want this war. And they go to the Pentagon and say, listen, we want this war, give us a plan. And the Pentagon, the generals, they're very experienced and conservative people. And in general, when you fight a war, there are three things you must focus on, okay? The first idea is mass forces. When you fight a war, you want to overwhelm your enemy. So, when we say mass forces, we basically mean infantry and armor. Most wars are fought using tanks and soldiers. And the Iraq Army at that time had about 370,000 soldiers, okay? And in general, the general rule of thumb when you invade a country is you want to have a three to one advantage, okay? And the reason why is... 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So the general rule of thumb is that if your enemy has 300,000 soldiers, you need about a million, okay? So that's the first principle. Second principle is the idea of you want to avoid encirclement. Okay? The worst thing that can happen to your soldiers is if they become encircled by the enemy, okay? Because then it becomes impossible to defend yourself, all right? And the third idea is protect supply lines. Most of war is actually just logistics. How do you get oil and fuel and weapons from here to there, okay? Supply lines. So these are the three major principles. Okay? These are the three things that you must focus on when you fight a war. 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And Donald Rumsfeld, who was Secretary of Defense, and his deputy, Wolfert, said, no, we're going to do it with less than a million soldiers. Give us a plan that requires less infantry. And the Pentagon said, okay, well, we shouldn't do this, but the most we can do is about 900,000. And Wolfert said, nope, go lower. And eventually, Rumsfeld and Wolfert said, we want you to fight this war with 100,000 troops. 130,000 troops. Okay? And the Pentagon said, no. And the Pentagon said to Rumsfeld and Wolfert, this is insane. We will be outnumbered three to one when we fight this war. How are we going to avoid encirclement? How are we going to amass forces? How will we protect supply lines? 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Okay? And the idea of shock and awe is that all militaries are hierarchies. Okay? You have command and control. So you have the head, and then you have the body, and then you have the arms and the legs. Well, if we can go and cut off the head, then the entire army falls apart. And we can do that because the nature of war has changed. What the US military specializes in. Okay? And then what gives us the advantage is three things, or three things. Okay? First is air supremacy. We control the skies because we have the greatest air force in the world. Okay? But second, what's most important is technological omniscience. Omniscience means to know everything. We're God. The reason why is, listen, we have satellites. They can see everything on Earth.", "word_count": 164, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-001", "start": 301.5, "end": 305.7, "text": "the way, professional soldiers, they've never really fought a war before,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-002", "start": 306.14, "end": 307.84, "text": "they're like, well, we have this theory,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-003", "start": 308.08, "end": 310.52, "text": "a new theory of war called shock and awe.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-004", "start": 310.72, "end": 319.02, "text": "Okay? And the idea of shock and awe is that all militaries", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-005", "start": 319.02, "end": 320.28, "text": "are hierarchies.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-006", "start": 320.3, "end": 321.5, "text": "Okay? 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And then what gives us the advantage is three things,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-015", "start": 346.64, "end": 347.14, "text": "or three things.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-016", "start": 347.28, "end": 349.72, "text": "Okay? First is air supremacy.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-017", "start": 352.66, "end": 357.66, "text": "We control the skies because we have the greatest air force in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-018", "start": 357.66, "end": 358.12, "text": "the world.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-019", "start": 358.65, "end": 365.33, "text": "Okay? But second, what's most important is technological omniscience.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-020", "start": 370.74, "end": 372.8, "text": "Omniscience means to know everything.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-021", "start": 373.04, "end": 373.88, "text": "We're God.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-022", "start": 374.18, "end": 375.92, "text": "The reason why is, listen,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-023", "start": 376.1, "end": 377.78, "text": "we have satellites.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-024", "start": 378.12, "end": 378.66, "text": "They can", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0005-chunk-025", "start": 378.66, "end": 379.44, "text": "see everything on Earth.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "43f6cc3e5664d0629bb630df7faa150a9f0c90ecf38491e6de2c1048c09ffd9d", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0005", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=301s", "time_label": "5:01", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0006", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "start": 379.44, "end": 450.54, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "They can see everything on Earth. They can see everything on the Earth. We have technology that allows us to eavesdrop on all electronic communications. When you talk on the phone, we can hear exactly what you're saying. We know everything on the ground. That allows us to have the power of God. Okay? That's the second thing. The third thing is we have special forces. So special forces are soldiers who go into enemy territory. Okay? And they are able to target and direct air power against the enemy. Okay? And we, America, have the best special forces in the world. And so with these three things, we have a new doctrine of war. We can fight war in a new way that's never been fought before, but which will guarantee that war will be quick. We'll do it very quickly. Cheap. It won't cost that much money. And third, decisive. We will completely destroy our enemy.", "word_count": 158, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-001", "start": 379.44, "end": 380.16, "text": "They can see everything on Earth.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-002", "start": 380.16, "end": 381.06, "text": "They can see everything on the Earth.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-003", "start": 381.24, "end": 387.52, "text": "We have technology that allows us to eavesdrop on all electronic communications.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-004", "start": 388.14, "end": 389.52, "text": "When you talk on the phone,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-005", "start": 389.62, "end": 391.1, "text": "we can hear exactly what you're saying.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-006", "start": 391.63, "end": 393.77, "text": "We know everything on the ground.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-007", "start": 393.89, "end": 397.09, "text": "That allows us to have the power of God.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-008", "start": 397.33, "end": 398.43, "text": "Okay? That's the second thing.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-009", "start": 398.59, "end": 402.09, "text": "The third thing is we have special forces.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-010", "start": 403.88, "end": 410.36, "text": "So special forces are soldiers who go into enemy territory.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-011", "start": 410.64, "end": 416.78, "text": "Okay? And they are able to target and direct air power against", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-012", "start": 416.78, "end": 417.72, "text": "the enemy.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-013", "start": 418.56, "end": 426.22, "text": "Okay? And we, America, have the best special forces in the world.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-014", "start": 428, "end": 431.24, "text": "And so with these three things,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-015", "start": 431.44, "end": 433.7, "text": "we have a new doctrine of war.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-016", "start": 433.86, "end": 437.5, "text": "We can fight war in a new way that's never been fought", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-017", "start": 437.5, "end": 441.74, "text": "before, but which will guarantee that war will be quick.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-018", "start": 441.92, "end": 442.94, "text": "We'll do it very quickly.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-019", "start": 444.18, "end": 447.04, "text": "Cheap. It won't cost that much money.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-020", "start": 447.26, "end": 448.86, "text": "And third, decisive.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-021", "start": 449, "end": 449.96, "text": "We will completely destroy", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0006-chunk-022", "start": 449.96, "end": 450.54, "text": "our enemy.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "419ab5aeb97e66bfae1c43ad71edd777585b210456bc981f0115e014283fbce9", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0006", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=379s", "time_label": "6:19", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0007", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "start": 451.36, "end": 535.64, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? And the Pentagon was like, you guys are insane. This is not going to work. This is a theory, guys. Whereas this idea, mass forces, avoid encirclement, protect supply lines, we've been doing this for like thousands of years. This is just experience. This is just history. This is reality, guys. This is just a... This is just fantasy, all right? But Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz insisted, and they said, you must fight this war this way. And they insisted. And it turned out that this plan that the Pentagon, most military planners thought is absurd, insane, unrealistic, worked 100 % the way it was supposed to work. Okay? The Second Gulf War in 2003 lasted exactly three weeks. Very quick. The US military, with only 130,000 troops, was able to destroy an army of 270,000 in three weeks. Okay? That's one. Second is that America lost, at most, 200 soldiers. And most of it was due to friendly fire.", "word_count": 162, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-001", "start": 451.36, "end": 454.65, "text": "Okay? 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The Second Gulf War in 2003 lasted exactly three weeks.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-020", "start": 512.24, "end": 513.2, "text": "Very quick.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-021", "start": 514.07, "end": 516.87, "text": "The US military, with only 130,000 troops,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-022", "start": 517.05, "end": 522.91, "text": "was able to destroy an army of 270,000 in three weeks.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0007-chunk-023", "start": 523.13, "end": 523.97, "text": "Okay? 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It was accidental. This is insane. This has never happened before. Only 200 American soldiers died, at most, whereas tens of thousands of Iraqi soldiers died. Okay? And the third thing that was most impressive is what's called thunder runs. Okay? This is just America flexing, okay, or showing off. So what was happening was that America was so dominant that you had these... Okay? These American soldiers in their armored vehicles drive into Baghdad, the capital city, and they just drive around, circle it, and no one could stop them. And this is what they call thunder runs. Okay? And they did three of these. It was purely an act of intimidation, but it's also just showing off. Okay? It's like you're in a fight, and you decide, you know what? I'm so much stronger than this guy, I'm going to do a backflip. Okay? I'm so bored by this guy. I'm going to do a backflip.", "word_count": 159, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-001", "start": 535.74, "end": 536.62, "text": "Okay? It was accidental.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-002", "start": 537.37, "end": 538.37, "text": "This is insane.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-003", "start": 538.59, "end": 539.87, "text": "This has never happened before.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-004", "start": 540.07, "end": 543.01, "text": "Only 200 American soldiers died,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-005", "start": 543.19, "end": 549.91, "text": "at most, whereas tens of thousands of Iraqi soldiers died.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-006", "start": 550.33, "end": 555, "text": "Okay? And the third thing that was most impressive is what's called", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-007", "start": 555, "end": 555.58, "text": "thunder runs.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-008", "start": 557.18, "end": 560.4, "text": "Okay? 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These American soldiers in their armored vehicles drive into Baghdad,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-013", "start": 574.19, "end": 576.6, "text": "the capital city, and they just drive around,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-014", "start": 576.86, "end": 579.99, "text": "circle it, and no one could stop them.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-015", "start": 580.51, "end": 582.39, "text": "And this is what they call thunder runs.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-016", "start": 582.55, "end": 583.67, "text": "Okay? And they did three of these.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-017", "start": 583.83, "end": 587.69, "text": "It was purely an act of intimidation,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-018", "start": 587.75, "end": 589.97, "text": "but it's also just showing off.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0008-chunk-019", "start": 590.15, "end": 591.63, "text": "Okay? 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So one bomb, called a cluster bomb, can wipe out an entire nation. It can wipe out an entire tank division. And the reason why is that a cluster bomb inside has about 40 bombs. And these 40 bombs are equipped with GPS. So what they can do is each of these bombs can go and find a tank. It will latch onto a tank and blow the tank up. So this one cluster bomb, which doesn't really cost that much money, can destroy an entire tank division by itself. Okay? The other thing is special forces. So the theory is that special forces, if we make them the central core of our military, that will have a devastating impact.", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-001", "start": 599.14, "end": 600.38, "text": "Thunder runs.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-002", "start": 600.52, "end": 609.25, "text": "Okay? 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So how is America able to achieve all this?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-005", "start": 620.4, "end": 624.54, "text": "Well, I mean, the first thing is the idea of air supremacy.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-006", "start": 625.18, "end": 629.54, "text": "So one bomb, called a cluster bomb,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-007", "start": 629.78, "end": 634.11, "text": "can wipe out an entire nation.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-008", "start": 634.11, "end": 635.87, "text": "It can wipe out an entire tank division.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-009", "start": 636.17, "end": 639.45, "text": "And the reason why is that a cluster bomb inside has about", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-010", "start": 639.45, "end": 640.51, "text": "40 bombs.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-011", "start": 641.28, "end": 644.68, "text": "And these 40 bombs are equipped with GPS.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-012", "start": 645.36, "end": 648.58, "text": "So what they can do is each of these bombs can go", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-013", "start": 648.58, "end": 649.42, "text": "and find a tank.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-014", "start": 649.7, "end": 652.4, "text": "It will latch onto a tank and blow the tank up.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-015", "start": 652.8, "end": 654.38, "text": "So this one cluster bomb,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-016", "start": 654.58, "end": 655.76, "text": "which doesn't really cost that much money,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-017", "start": 655.82, "end": 660.6, "text": "can destroy an entire tank division by itself.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-018", "start": 660.92, "end": 667.72, "text": "Okay? The other thing is special forces.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-019", "start": 667.98, "end": 670.56, "text": "So the theory is that special forces,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-020", "start": 670.62, "end": 673.66, "text": "if we make them the central core of our military,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-021", "start": 673.88, "end": 674.56, "text": "that will have", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0009-chunk-022", "start": 674.56, "end": 675.72, "text": "a devastating impact.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "d65538b17b8195a5612d4eff1268c504b266cd2ca5f98d03ecae93cbf2b57624", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0009", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=599s", "time_label": "9:59", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0010", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "start": 676.24, "end": 758.58, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And it was true. So what was happening was that special forces could drive around and look for military installations by themselves. Okay? We're talking like a few people. And then they could order in an airstrike. Okay? And. And then the planes were blowing up. So shock and awe was extremely effective. But the problem is that people don't really ask, what did Saddam Hussein do wrong? Why was this so effective against Saddam Hussein? And there are actually three reasons, okay, to think that what happened in 2003. Was not a revolution in military doctrine, not a revolution in warfare, but just a unique incident in war that doesn't really tell us that much. Okay? In other words, what was happening in Iraq could not be replicated. Okay? And there were three reasons why. The first is that Saddam Hussein had no air defense. Okay? He had no air defense. He didn't have weapons to counter the enemy.", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-001", "start": 676.24, "end": 677.38, "text": "And it was true.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-002", "start": 677.52, "end": 682.32, "text": "So what was happening was that special forces could drive around and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-003", "start": 682.32, "end": 685.64, "text": "look for military installations by themselves.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-004", "start": 685.92, "end": 687.16, "text": "Okay? We're talking like a few people.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-005", "start": 687.28, "end": 689.88, "text": "And then they could order in an airstrike.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-006", "start": 690.74, "end": 691.98, "text": "Okay? And.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-007", "start": 691.98, "end": 695.54, "text": "And then the planes were blowing up.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-008", "start": 696.74, "end": 704.13, "text": "So shock and awe was extremely effective.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-009", "start": 706.33, "end": 710.83, "text": "But the problem is that people don't really ask,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-010", "start": 712.75, "end": 714.99, "text": "what did Saddam Hussein do wrong?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-011", "start": 715.44, "end": 717.78, "text": "Why was this so effective against Saddam Hussein?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-012", "start": 718.3, "end": 720.78, "text": "And there are actually three reasons,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-013", "start": 721.1, "end": 727.48, "text": "okay, to think that what happened in 2003.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-014", "start": 727.48, "end": 732.74, "text": "Was not a revolution in military doctrine,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-015", "start": 733.04, "end": 734.4, "text": "not a revolution in warfare,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-016", "start": 734.64, "end": 741.2, "text": "but just a unique incident in war that doesn't really tell us", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-017", "start": 741.2, "end": 741.48, "text": "that much.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-018", "start": 741.62, "end": 745.66, "text": "Okay? In other words, what was happening in Iraq could not be", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-019", "start": 745.66, "end": 746.32, "text": "replicated. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-020", "start": 746.48, "end": 748.88, "text": "And there were three reasons why.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-021", "start": 749.36, "end": 752.96, "text": "The first is that Saddam Hussein had no air defense.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-022", "start": 754.32, "end": 755.74, "text": "Okay? He had no air defense.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-023", "start": 755.96, "end": 757.9, "text": "He didn't have weapons to", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0010-chunk-024", "start": 757.9, "end": 758.58, "text": "counter the enemy.", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "36ea5a2100308135b10549b595731370d221ae9362c1b2f7a3972526bc6bcb3e", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0010", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=676s", "time_label": "11:16", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0011", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "start": 758.58, "end": 815.79, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "He didn't have weapons to counter the enemy. So he was really focused on fighting against America's air supremacy. And the reason why is that in 1991, Saddam Hussein fought a war against America called the first Persian Gulf War. Okay? Operation Desert Storm. And his army got destroyed by American air power. And at this point, America could have chosen to go invade Iraq and overthrow Saddam Hussein. And America didn't. so someone was saying learn two lessons from the Persian Gulf War which is number one I can never beat America there's no point in trying if America wants to beat the crap out of me I can't stop it okay that's the first first thing he learned second thing you learn is that America probably does not want to overthrow me because if he over froze me it would destabilize the country it would destabilize the region you would allow terrorists into the country", "word_count": 157, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-001", "start": 758.58, "end": 758.92, "text": "He didn't have weapons to counter the enemy.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-002", "start": 758.92, "end": 759.52, "text": "So he was really focused on fighting against America's air supremacy.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-003", "start": 759.82, "end": 763.48, "text": "And the reason why is that in 1991,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-004", "start": 763.92, "end": 768.44, "text": "Saddam Hussein fought a war against America called the first Persian Gulf", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-005", "start": 768.44, "end": 768.88, "text": "War. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-006", "start": 768.92, "end": 770.02, "text": "Operation Desert Storm.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-007", "start": 770.36, "end": 774.36, "text": "And his army got destroyed by American air power.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-008", "start": 776.02, "end": 781.52, "text": "And at this point, America could have chosen to go invade Iraq", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-009", "start": 781.52, "end": 783.04, "text": "and overthrow Saddam Hussein.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-010", "start": 783.18, "end": 784.26, "text": "And America didn't.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-011", "start": 784.26, "end": 791.85, "text": "so someone was saying learn two lessons from the Persian Gulf War", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-012", "start": 791.85, "end": 795.63, "text": "which is number one I can never beat America there's no point", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-013", "start": 795.63, "end": 798.05, "text": "in trying if America wants to beat the crap out of me", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-014", "start": 798.05, "end": 801.57, "text": "I can't stop it okay that's the first first thing he learned", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-015", "start": 801.57, "end": 806.73, "text": "second thing you learn is that America probably does not want to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-016", "start": 806.73, "end": 811.35, "text": "overthrow me because if he over froze me it would destabilize the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-017", "start": 811.35, "end": 815.41, "text": "country it would destabilize the region you would allow terrorists into the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0011-chunk-018", "start": 815.41, "end": 815.79, "text": "country", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "7151a12336211a4e2644d32583ef8f1fe0afacc4c3a245c3706175e0013085de", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0011", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=758s", "time_label": "12:38", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0012", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "start": 815.79, "end": 893.13, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "you would turn my people into terrorists you would empower Iran so there's no way that America could overthrow me would want to overthrow me so let me just focus my resources on suppressing internal dissent okay so he completely forgot about America so even when it was clear that America was about to invade he still did not put up any air defenses because he didn't have any air defenses okay so that's the first thing that was unique about the 2003 war okay second thing is that Iraq is a desert that makes it ideal for shock and awe right air power can go anywhere you have satellites that could see everything special forces can just drive around okay so a desert makes an ideal situation for shock and awe and the third thing is just surprise no one in human history has tried to fight a war like this okay and so no one knew how what", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-001", "start": 815.79, "end": 821.11, "text": "you would turn my people into terrorists you would empower Iran so", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-002", "start": 821.72, "end": 825.06, "text": "there's no way that America could overthrow me would want to overthrow", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-003", "start": 825.06, "end": 832.78, "text": "me so let me just focus my resources on suppressing internal dissent", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-004", "start": 832.78, "end": 838.12, "text": "okay so he completely forgot about America so even when it was", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-005", "start": 838.12, "end": 841.96, "text": "clear that America was about to invade he still did not put", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-006", "start": 841.96, "end": 845.42, "text": "up any air defenses because he didn't have any air defenses okay", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-007", "start": 845.42, "end": 851.46, "text": "so that's the first thing that was unique about the 2003 war", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-008", "start": 851.46, "end": 859.6, "text": "okay second thing is that Iraq is a desert that makes it", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-009", "start": 859.6, "end": 865.32, "text": "ideal for shock and awe right air power can go anywhere you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-010", "start": 865.32, "end": 870.05, "text": "have satellites that could see everything special forces can just drive around", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-011", "start": 870.05, "end": 875.38, "text": "okay so a desert makes an ideal situation for shock and awe", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-012", "start": 875.38, "end": 883.58, "text": "and the third thing is just surprise no one in human history", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-013", "start": 883.58, "end": 889.53, "text": "has tried to fight a war like this okay and so no", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0012-chunk-014", "start": 889.53, "end": 893.13, "text": "one knew how what", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "0a171348b04ab84bef42bb5712cebd6917bffaba80dad4235b65ba8957511576", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0012", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=815s", "time_label": "13:35", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0013", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "start": 893.13, "end": 968.16, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "was going to happen so an example is that special forces were in Western Iraq blowing up missile bases because of the kind of concern was that Saddam Hussein would direct all his missiles his scuds against Israel okay so so much damage was being inflicted in Western Iraq that Saddam Hussein believed he was so confident that the that the that the main American military was actually in Western Iraq when in fact they were in eastern Iraq so he diverted all his forces to Western Iraq отв back that completely open to attacked from the east okay so no one had far a war like this before and no one knew what to expect okay but obviously you can you can only do this once right okay so there are three special conditions to make us think that silicon all in 2003 Iraq War which is a one -off it was unique OK unfortunately we have a new", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-001", "start": 893.13, "end": 900.44, "text": "was going to happen so an example is that special forces were", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": 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"end": 939.48, "text": "forces to Western Iraq отв back that completely open to attacked from", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-009", "start": 939.48, "end": 946.15, "text": "the east okay so no one had far a war like this", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-010", "start": 946.15, "end": 949.99, "text": "before and no one knew what to expect okay but obviously you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-011", "start": 949.99, "end": 954.67, "text": "can you can only do this once right okay so there are", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-012", "start": 954.67, "end": 960.77, "text": "three special conditions to make us think that silicon all in 2003", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-013", "start": 960.77, "end": 968.08, "text": "Iraq War which is a one -off it was unique OK unfortunately", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0013-chunk-014", "start": 968.08, "end": 968.16, "text": "we have a new", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "9cdb38cd457bab99c62f011d38fadbea4e31ce21fbe6735c36cda5a05119f742", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0013", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=893s", "time_label": "14:53", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0014", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "start": 968.16, "end": 1062.811, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "expression this was Unfortunately, the Americans don't know this, okay? Right? The Americans are like, well, all this does is prove our theory to be correct, okay? So after 2003, America focused its military doctrine, its military on shock and awe, okay? So the example is special forces. So before 2001, America had about 38,000 special forces. Today, it has 73,000, okay? That's a lot, okay? Because America has a total army of 1.3 million. The budget for special forces, black ops, okay? It was about $2 billion in 2000, and today it's about $13.7 billion. So it's almost an increase of... Seven times, which is a lot. But this is just the public official number, because special forces are black ops. They can operate outside supervision of the military, okay? So in other words, their actual budget is probably 10 times, possibly 100 times more than the official budget, right? Now, special forces... I want to talk very briefly about why special forces is a problem, okay?", "word_count": 172, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-001", "start": 968.16, "end": 973.89, "text": "expression this was Unfortunately, the Americans don't know this,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-002", "start": 973.99, "end": 975.29, "text": "okay? Right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-003", "start": 975.43, "end": 977.03, "text": "The Americans are like, well,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-004", "start": 977.19, "end": 981.31, "text": "all this does is prove our theory to be correct,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-005", "start": 981.43, "end": 987.99, "text": "okay? So after 2003, America focused its military doctrine,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-006", "start": 988.58, "end": 992.92, "text": "its military on shock and awe,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-007", "start": 993.04, "end": 994.52, "text": "okay? So the example is special forces.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-008", "start": 994.52, "end": 1000.42, "text": "So before 2001, America had about 38,000 special forces.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-009", "start": 1000.66, "end": 1002.56, "text": "Today, it has 73,000,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-010", "start": 1002.66, "end": 1004.86, "text": "okay? That's a lot, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-011", "start": 1005.04, "end": 1007.58, "text": "Because America has a total army of 1.3 million.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-012", "start": 1010.02, "end": 1012.06, "text": "The budget for special forces,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-013", "start": 1012.16, "end": 1012.94, "text": "black ops, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-014", "start": 1013.28, "end": 1017.4, "text": "It was about $2 billion in 2000,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-015", "start": 1017.52, "end": 1020.78, "text": "and today it's about $13.7 billion.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-016", "start": 1021.02, "end": 1024.18, "text": "So it's almost an increase of...", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-017", "start": 1026.18, "end": 1028.18, "text": "Seven times, which is a lot.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-018", "start": 1028.34, "end": 1032.62, "text": "But this is just the public official number,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-019", "start": 1033.3, "end": 1036.62, "text": "because special forces are black ops.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-020", "start": 1036.8, "end": 1043.24, "text": "They can operate outside supervision of the military,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-021", "start": 1043.42, "end": 1044.74, "text": "okay? So in other words,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-022", "start": 1044.84, "end": 1049.2, "text": "their actual budget is probably 10 times,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-023", "start": 1049.4, "end": 1052.5, "text": "possibly 100 times more than the official budget,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-024", "start": 1053.41, "end": 1057.27, "text": "right? Now, special forces...", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-025", "start": 1058.61, "end": 1059.13, "text": "I want", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-026", "start": 1059.13, "end": 1061.89, "text": "to talk very briefly about why special forces is a problem,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0014-chunk-027", "start": 1062.15, "end": 1062.811, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "4d76b1eb1f11bae7d5d9f907645073be86d9bb191082f3de9d7c27908530046e", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0014", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=968s", "time_label": "16:08", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0015", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "start": 1062.811, "end": 1134.504, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Now, traditionally, militaries have been very strict hierarchies, and there are good reasons for this, okay? You have to enforce order and discipline, right? But you're also concerned about the military overflowing the government, right? That's always been a problem throughout history. So you must maintain complete control. But when you do that, you create... A lot of problems in the military. It is unable to react very quickly to hostile situations, okay? If terrorists come and attack you, your military can't actually go and defeat them. It's too slow, okay? Sometimes there are hostiles crisis, okay? So throughout the 70s, a lot of airplanes were getting hijacked by terrorists. For these circumstances, you need special forces, okay? Soldiers who are outside your immediate control, okay? Who can respond immediately to crises. That's why you have special forces, okay? But in general, you don't want that many special forces because, again, they're outside the control of your military, okay?", "word_count": 159, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-001", "start": 1062.811, "end": 1068.1, "text": "Now, traditionally, militaries have been very strict hierarchies,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-002", "start": 1068.12, "end": 1070.1, "text": "and there are good reasons for this,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-003", "start": 1070.2, "end": 1072.26, "text": "okay? You have to enforce order and discipline,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-004", "start": 1072.48, "end": 1077.98, "text": "right? But you're also concerned about the military overflowing the government,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-005", "start": 1078.14, "end": 1079.98, "text": "right? That's always been a problem throughout history.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-006", "start": 1080.14, "end": 1082.04, "text": "So you must maintain complete control.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-007", "start": 1082.34, "end": 1083.76, "text": "But when you do that,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-008", "start": 1084.02, "end": 1086.4, "text": "you create...", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-009", "start": 1086.4, "end": 1091.35, "text": "A lot of problems in the military.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-010", "start": 1091.53, "end": 1095.91, "text": "It is unable to react very quickly to hostile situations,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-011", "start": 1096.09, "end": 1098.15, "text": "okay? If terrorists come and attack you,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-012", "start": 1098.29, "end": 1100.99, "text": "your military can't actually go and defeat them.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-013", "start": 1101.05, "end": 1102.19, "text": "It's too slow, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-014", "start": 1103.29, "end": 1104.95, "text": "Sometimes there are hostiles crisis,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-015", "start": 1105.13, "end": 1106.91, "text": "okay? So throughout the 70s,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-016", "start": 1106.91, "end": 1109.17, "text": "a lot of airplanes were getting hijacked by terrorists.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-017", "start": 1109.78, "end": 1113.62, "text": "For these circumstances, you need special forces,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-018", "start": 1113.7, "end": 1117.24, "text": "okay? Soldiers who are outside your immediate control,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-019", "start": 1117.24, "end": 1120.96, "text": "okay? Who can respond immediately to crises.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-020", "start": 1121.2, "end": 1122.44, "text": "That's why you have special forces,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-021", "start": 1122.48, "end": 1127.71, "text": "okay? But in general, you don't want that many special", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-022", "start": 1127.71, "end": 1133.73, "text": "forces because, again, they're outside the control of your military,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0015-chunk-023", "start": 1133.97, "end": 1134.504, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "f5640b3f3dd8e18257bbd30173e1b379faedc302de3232267f97794046608469", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0015", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=1062s", "time_label": "17:42", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0016", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "start": 1134.504, "end": 1205.61, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "They're independent sometimes of your military. They have a lot of space to maneuver and to be independent. Now, why are special forces a problem? It's because the... People who volunteer for special forces are different from you and me, okay? To put it very lightly. So, for example, let's look at one of the top two special forces in the world called SAS, okay? This is British Special Air Services. The most... One of the most elite, certainly the oldest special forces in the world. The other is Delta. And so... You volunteer for special air services. You're applying, okay? And the first test is this. The first test... There are many tests, but the first test is... You have to run six marathons in five days, okay? Oh! That's just the beginning. You also have to carry a backpack of bricks while you are running six marathons in five days, okay?", "word_count": 153, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-001", "start": 1134.504, "end": 1137.71, "text": "They're independent sometimes of your military.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-002", "start": 1137.79, "end": 1142.43, "text": "They have a lot of space to maneuver and to be independent.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-003", "start": 1144.19, "end": 1147.07, "text": "Now, why are special forces a problem?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-004", "start": 1147.39, "end": 1148.95, "text": "It's because the...", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-005", "start": 1149.29, "end": 1154.15, "text": "People who volunteer for special forces are different from you and me,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-006", "start": 1154.25, "end": 1155.85, "text": "okay? To put it very lightly.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-007", "start": 1156.23, "end": 1161.07, "text": "So, for example, let's look at one of the top two special", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-008", "start": 1161.07, "end": 1162.97, "text": "forces in the world called SAS,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-009", "start": 1163.25, "end": 1165.87, "text": "okay? This is British Special Air Services.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-010", "start": 1166.47, "end": 1167.15, "text": "The most...", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-011", "start": 1167.15, "end": 1168.11, "text": "One of the most elite,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-012", "start": 1168.23, "end": 1172.75, "text": "certainly the oldest special forces in the world.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-013", "start": 1173.07, "end": 1174.67, "text": "The other is Delta.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-014", "start": 1175.38, "end": 1176.84, "text": "And so...", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-015", "start": 1176.84, "end": 1179.44, "text": "You volunteer for special air services.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-016", "start": 1179.62, "end": 1180.84, "text": "You're applying, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-017", "start": 1181.06, "end": 1182.8, "text": "And the first test is this.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-018", "start": 1182.96, "end": 1184.3, "text": "The first test...", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-019", "start": 1184.3, "end": 1186.86, "text": "There are many tests, but the first test is...", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-020", "start": 1186.86, "end": 1190.86, "text": "You have to run six marathons in five days,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-021", "start": 1191.02, "end": 1195.43, "text": "okay? Oh!", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-022", "start": 1196.05, "end": 1196.93, "text": "That's just the beginning.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-023", "start": 1197.11, "end": 1202.41, "text": "You also have to carry a backpack of bricks while you are", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-024", "start": 1202.41, "end": 1204.05, "text": "running six marathons", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0016-chunk-025", "start": 1204.05, "end": 1205.61, "text": "in five days, okay?", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "14953f5f23001cff29d885a81bcfca2f8f23a69ebff3783ab2c8ca911d4d8b74", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0016", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=1134s", "time_label": "18:54", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0017", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "start": 1206.2, "end": 1274.45, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And you're like, okay, that's hard. Oh! One more thing. You're running the marathon on a mountain, okay? You understand? You have to run six marathons in five days with a backpack of bricks, and you have to do it on a mountain somewhere, okay? So even at that first test, there have been some individuals who've gone crazy, okay? You have to put them in a hospital because they've gone crazy. But that's just to be the first test. The last test is always torture. They will be tortured to see how much they can resist torture, okay? Because obviously when you're captured, the enemy is going to torture you to get information out of you, right? What are you doing here? Who is your commander? Are there other comrades with you, okay? You'll always be tortured. So they also have to withstand torture. There are some other tests. So, for example, in the French special services, one test is that you will have to wear a bulletproof vest, okay?", "word_count": 171, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-001", "start": 1206.2, "end": 1207.88, "text": "And you're like, okay, that's hard.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-002", "start": 1208.02, "end": 1209.7, "text": "Oh! One more thing.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-003", "start": 1210.72, "end": 1212.88, "text": "You're running the marathon on a mountain,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-004", "start": 1213.06, "end": 1215.28, "text": "okay? You understand?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-005", "start": 1215.94, "end": 1222.46, "text": "You have to run six marathons in five days with a backpack", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-006", "start": 1222.46, "end": 1226.16, "text": "of bricks, and you have to do it on a mountain somewhere,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-007", "start": 1226.36, "end": 1228.86, "text": "okay? So even at that first test,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-008", "start": 1229.12, "end": 1232.4, "text": "there have been some individuals who've gone crazy,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-009", "start": 1232.54, "end": 1236.76, "text": "okay? You have to put them in a hospital because they've gone", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-010", "start": 1236.76, "end": 1240.1, "text": "crazy. But that's just to be the first test.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-011", "start": 1240.1, "end": 1242.98, "text": "The last test is always torture.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-012", "start": 1243.38, "end": 1248.91, "text": "They will be tortured to see how much they can resist torture,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-013", "start": 1249.17, "end": 1250.63, "text": "okay? Because obviously when you're captured,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-014", "start": 1250.93, "end": 1253.75, "text": "the enemy is going to torture you to get information out of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-015", "start": 1253.75, "end": 1254.01, "text": "you, right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-016", "start": 1254.29, "end": 1255.57, "text": "What are you doing here?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-017", "start": 1256.91, "end": 1257.97, "text": "Who is your commander?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-018", "start": 1258.43, "end": 1260.69, "text": "Are there other comrades with you,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-019", "start": 1260.73, "end": 1261.75, "text": "okay? You'll always be tortured.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-020", "start": 1262.29, "end": 1264.45, "text": "So they also have to withstand torture.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-021", "start": 1265.17, "end": 1266.29, "text": "There are some other tests.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-022", "start": 1266.51, "end": 1267.95, "text": "So, for example, in the French", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-023", "start": 1267.95, "end": 1272.21, "text": "special services, one test is that you will have to wear a", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0017-chunk-024", "start": 1272.21, "end": 1274.45, "text": "bulletproof vest, okay?", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "21e9afbf9f428e355087fa67aa4bd0a07d0b40fc3720a924c600c6f5197b0fe5", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0017", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=1206s", "time_label": "20:06", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0018", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "start": 1275.03, "end": 1350.35, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And you will have to hold a clay disc, right? And then your comrade will shoot a gun at you. Most people are like, I'm not going to do this, okay? So, in other words, the people who are special forces, they're different from us physically, but they're really different from us psychologically. They have a different mentality. So one special forces was interviewed by a reporter, and the reporter asked him, why did you choose to become special forces? And his answer is, well, it's either I do special forces or I go rob banks. One of the two. In other words, special forces are individuals who are addicted to risk and violence. And guys, in America, there's 73,000 of them running around the world trying to protect the American empire, okay? So special forces have increased, and it's really changed the nature of the American military.", "word_count": 149, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-001", "start": 1275.03, "end": 1279.12, "text": "And you will have to hold a clay disc,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-002", "start": 1279.34, "end": 1282.76, "text": "right? And then your comrade will shoot a gun at you.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-003", "start": 1284.2, "end": 1285.92, "text": "Most people are like, I'm not going to do this,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-004", "start": 1286, "end": 1288.7, "text": "okay? So, in other words,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-005", "start": 1288.92, "end": 1291.24, "text": "the people who are special forces,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-006", "start": 1291.48, "end": 1293.66, "text": "they're different from us physically,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-007", "start": 1294.6, "end": 1296.64, "text": "but they're really different from us psychologically.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-008", "start": 1297.52, "end": 1298.62, "text": "They have a different mentality.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-009", "start": 1298.62, "end": 1302.53, "text": "So one special forces was interviewed by a reporter,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-010", "start": 1302.73, "end": 1303.79, "text": "and the reporter asked him,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-011", "start": 1303.91, "end": 1307.11, "text": "why did you choose to become special forces?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-012", "start": 1307.41, "end": 1309.01, "text": "And his answer is, well,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-013", "start": 1309.15, "end": 1314.4, "text": "it's either I do special forces or I go rob banks.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-014", "start": 1314.94, "end": 1315.88, "text": "One of the two.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-015", "start": 1316.46, "end": 1324.2, "text": "In other words, special forces are individuals who are addicted to risk", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-016", "start": 1324.2, "end": 1325.94, "text": "and violence.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-017", "start": 1326.98, "end": 1333.64, "text": "And guys, in America, there's 73,000 of them running around the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-018", "start": 1333.64, "end": 1335.98, "text": "world trying to protect the American empire,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-019", "start": 1336.28, "end": 1344.71, "text": "okay? So special forces have increased,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-020", "start": 1344.89, "end": 1347.13, "text": "and it's really changed the nature", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0018-chunk-021", "start": 1347.13, "end": 1350.35, "text": "of the American military.", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "f036bce3e49c7820ac3094962bd3434ecd6368f660fb1f3dd5aebdab6e298273", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0018", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=1275s", "time_label": "21:15", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0019", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "start": 1350.83, "end": 1426.815, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "So it's good for America because now what shotgun all allows America to do is be everywhere at once. And you'll never see them, okay? So for example, the example is when Gaddafi was overthrown in the 2011 Libya war, okay? That was special forces. But we don't know this because the special forces were hiding in the background, okay? Directing air power against Gaddafi. So in other words, what Shaw and all really is, is it's more than a theory of war. It's ultimately a theory of empire. America is an empire. But unfortunately, most Americans don't want to admit that. Because being an empire means doing bad things to innocent people. And what shotgun all allows is for America to be an empire without the guilt of being an empire, okay? You have special forces doing all the work necessary in order to maintain this empire without people actually knowing, right?", "word_count": 153, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-001", "start": 1350.83, "end": 1356.95, "text": "So it's good for America because now what shotgun all allows America", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-002", "start": 1356.95, "end": 1360.73, "text": "to do is be everywhere at once.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-003", "start": 1361.9, "end": 1363.22, "text": "And you'll never see them,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-004", "start": 1363.44, "end": 1369.62, "text": "okay? So for example, the example is when Gaddafi was overthrown in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-005", "start": 1369.62, "end": 1371.38, "text": "the 2011 Libya war, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-006", "start": 1371.6, "end": 1372.54, "text": "That was special forces.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-007", "start": 1372.94, "end": 1377.2, "text": "But we don't know this because the special forces were hiding in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-008", "start": 1377.2, "end": 1377.9, "text": "the background, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-009", "start": 1378.08, "end": 1381.74, "text": "Directing air power against Gaddafi.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-010", "start": 1382.17, "end": 1385.85, "text": "So in other words, what Shaw and all really is,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-011", "start": 1385.97, "end": 1389.37, "text": "is it's more than a theory of war.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-012", "start": 1389.55, "end": 1391.89, "text": "It's ultimately a theory of empire.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-013", "start": 1398.73, "end": 1400.57, "text": "America is an empire.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-014", "start": 1400.89, "end": 1405.09, "text": "But unfortunately, most Americans don't want to admit that.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-015", "start": 1405.37, "end": 1410.55, "text": "Because being an empire means doing bad things to innocent people.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-016", "start": 1411.01, "end": 1416.31, "text": "And what shotgun all allows is for America to be an empire", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-017", "start": 1416.31, "end": 1418.77, "text": "without the guilt of being an empire,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-018", "start": 1419.05, "end": 1423.21, "text": "okay? You have special forces doing all the work necessary in order", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-019", "start": 1423.21, "end": 1426.25, "text": "to maintain this empire without people actually knowing,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0019-chunk-020", "start": 1426.39, "end": 1426.815, "text": "right?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "3ca7adc2dc62f0a7f932950fed6209a98c0c1e5dc907e86e72d263535dcd232a", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0019", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=1350s", "time_label": "22:30", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0020", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "start": 1426.815, "end": 1517.493, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "So shotgun all is really a theory of empire as opposed to a theory of war, okay? So does it make sense to you guys so far? Okay, any questions so far? Yeah? Okay, so Celina asked a great question. Are there, there's more special forces. Is it because there's more people who want to be special forces or is it because America needs more special forces? The answer is both, okay? So again, the America, after the fall of the Soviet Union, no longer had a peer competitor. So the understanding of America is that from now on, they went to fight rogue regimes, okay? So small nations that don't really listen to America and these nations have to be toppled very quickly, okay? So the examples would be Iraq, Iran, North Korea, okay? The axis of evil. So America started to shift its doctrine. To shadow wars, okay? Wars that you don't really see, but which would be effective in toppling the regimes you don't like, okay?", "word_count": 169, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-001", "start": 1426.815, "end": 1432.03, "text": "So shotgun all is really a theory of empire as opposed to a theory of", "word_count": 15 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-002", "start": 1432.03, "end": 1433.91, "text": "war, okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-003", "start": 1434.09, "end": 1437.03, "text": "So does it make sense to you guys so far?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-004", "start": 1438.37, "end": 1439.53, "text": "Okay, any questions so far?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-005", "start": 1442.06, "end": 1459.48, "text": "Yeah? Okay, so Celina asked a great question.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-006", "start": 1460.02, "end": 1462.24, "text": "Are there, there's more special forces.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-007", "start": 1462.42, "end": 1465.62, "text": "Is it because there's more people who want to be special forces", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-008", "start": 1465.62, "end": 1468.44, "text": "or is it because America needs more special forces?", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-009", "start": 1468.58, "end": 1469.44, "text": "The answer is both, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-010", "start": 1469.72, "end": 1477.09, "text": "So again, the America, after the fall of the Soviet Union,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-011", "start": 1477.27, "end": 1478.67, "text": "no longer had a peer competitor.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-012", "start": 1479.19, "end": 1483.65, "text": "So the understanding of America is that from now on,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-013", "start": 1483.67, "end": 1485.39, "text": "they went to fight rogue regimes,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-014", "start": 1485.71, "end": 1492.62, "text": "okay? So small nations that don't really listen to America and these", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-015", "start": 1492.62, "end": 1494.96, "text": "nations have to be toppled very quickly,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-016", "start": 1495.14, "end": 1497.7, "text": "okay? So the examples would be Iraq,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-017", "start": 1498.08, "end": 1500.18, "text": "Iran, North Korea, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-018", "start": 1500.24, "end": 1501.4, "text": "The axis of evil.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-019", "start": 1501.64, "end": 1505, "text": "So America started to shift its doctrine.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-020", "start": 1505, "end": 1507.76, "text": "To shadow wars, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-021", "start": 1507.82, "end": 1509.44, "text": "Wars that you don't really see,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-022", "start": 1510.28, "end": 1512.44, "text": "but which would be effective in toppling", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-023", "start": 1515.32, "end": 1517.02, "text": "the regimes you don't like,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0020-chunk-024", "start": 1517.1, "end": 1517.493, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "8f803738e5c6c55e60b51a88033986e3c62e0433c3ef829988dc43b8ecec4849", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0020", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=1426s", "time_label": "23:46", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0021", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "start": 1517.493, "end": 1599.072, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And so a lot of the resources were shifted into special forces and that allowed more people to enter special forces, okay? Does that make sense? Okay, all right. Any more questions before I move on? All right. Now the question then is, all right, shock and awe, where does this come from? It comes from one of the greatest disasters for America called the Vietnam War, okay? So from 1965 until 1973, there was a civil war in Vietnam between North Vietnam, which was communist, and South Vietnam, which is basically a US -controlled puppet state, okay? And America sent soldiers from 1965 to 1973 to protect South Vietnam from insurgents and rebels. And at the height of this war, 3 million US soldiers had to be deployed, okay? And at the height, in 1969, 500,000 soldiers, US soldiers, were in country to fight against the war. The rebels and the insurgents, okay?", "word_count": 155, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-001", "start": 1517.493, "end": 1521.82, "text": "And so a lot of the resources were shifted into special", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-002", "start": 1521.82, "end": 1527.1, "text": "forces and that allowed more people to enter special forces,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-003", "start": 1527.32, "end": 1530.16, "text": "okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-004", "start": 1530.38, "end": 1531.44, "text": "Okay, all right.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-005", "start": 1531.82, "end": 1533.5, "text": "Any more questions before I move on?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-006", "start": 1534.98, "end": 1535.62, "text": "All right.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-007", "start": 1535.62, "end": 1536.94, "text": "Now the question then is,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-008", "start": 1537.14, "end": 1540.51, "text": "all right, shock and awe,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-009", "start": 1540.77, "end": 1542.59, "text": "where does this come from?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-010", "start": 1542.91, "end": 1548.67, "text": "It comes from one of the greatest disasters for America called the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-011", "start": 1548.67, "end": 1549.79, "text": "Vietnam War, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-012", "start": 1549.93, "end": 1553.35, "text": "So from 1965 until 1973,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-013", "start": 1555.89, "end": 1558.93, "text": "there was a civil war in Vietnam between North Vietnam,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-014", "start": 1559.05, "end": 1561.71, "text": "which was communist, and South Vietnam,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-015", "start": 1562.05, "end": 1565.59, "text": "which is basically a US -controlled puppet state,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-016", "start": 1565.71, "end": 1574.21, "text": "okay? And America sent soldiers from 1965 to 1973 to protect South", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-017", "start": 1574.21, "end": 1577.53, "text": "Vietnam from insurgents and rebels.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-018", "start": 1578.63, "end": 1580.47, "text": "And at the height of this war,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-019", "start": 1580.85, "end": 1587.18, "text": "3 million US soldiers had to be deployed,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-020", "start": 1587.36, "end": 1589.68, "text": "okay? And at the height,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-021", "start": 1589.76, "end": 1592.88, "text": "in 1969, 500,000 soldiers,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-022", "start": 1593.16, "end": 1596.88, "text": "US soldiers, were in country to fight against the war.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-023", "start": 1596.9, "end": 1598.12, "text": "The rebels and the insurgents,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0021-chunk-024", "start": 1598.26, "end": 1599.072, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "cfb783993f9cfed269253d7408b4c73a17eac767e07e3a5f068eff8960bf433a", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0021", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=1517s", "time_label": "25:17", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0022", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "start": 1599.072, "end": 1672.54, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "58,000 US soldiers died in this war. Three million, at least three million, Vietnamese died in this war. Two million of them were civilians, innocent civilians, okay? Over 300,000 US soldiers were wounded, okay? They went home without legs, without arms. And they were traumatized. And this was an extremely controversial war in America because they were trying to fight the war using standard military doctrine, mass forces, right? So they instituted something called a draft. So if you were a young American, you had to go fight in this war in Vietnam. But you didn't know why you had to go fight this war. And chances are that you would either die or you would lose a body part in this war. So it became extremely unpopular in America. The other thing is that there were a lot of journalists in Vietnam during this time. And they were reporting on how America was killing Vietnamese for no reason.", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-001", "start": 1599.072, "end": 1604.76, "text": "58,000 US soldiers died in this war.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-002", "start": 1605.6, "end": 1609.38, "text": "Three million, at least three million,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-003", "start": 1609.44, "end": 1611.9, "text": "Vietnamese died in this war.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-004", "start": 1612.3, "end": 1614.7, "text": "Two million of them were civilians,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-005", "start": 1615.12, "end": 1616.36, "text": "innocent civilians, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-006", "start": 1619.86, "end": 1624.81, "text": "Over 300,000 US soldiers were wounded,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-007", "start": 1624.93, "end": 1628.83, "text": "okay? They went home without legs,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-008", "start": 1629.13, "end": 1629.85, "text": "without arms.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-009", "start": 1630.96, "end": 1632.12, "text": "And they were traumatized.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-010", "start": 1632.73, "end": 1638.84, "text": "And this was an extremely controversial war in America because they were", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-011", "start": 1638.84, "end": 1642.6, "text": "trying to fight the war using standard military doctrine,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-012", "start": 1642.92, "end": 1643.82, "text": "mass forces, right?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-013", "start": 1644.04, "end": 1645.98, "text": "So they instituted something called a draft.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-014", "start": 1646.22, "end": 1647.4, "text": "So if you were a young American,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-015", "start": 1647.48, "end": 1649.42, "text": "you had to go fight in this war in Vietnam.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-016", "start": 1649.76, "end": 1652.2, "text": "But you didn't know why you had to go fight this war.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-017", "start": 1652.36, "end": 1656.2, "text": "And chances are that you would either die or you would lose", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-018", "start": 1656.2, "end": 1657.92, "text": "a body part in this war.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-019", "start": 1658.22, "end": 1661.52, "text": "So it became extremely unpopular in America.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-020", "start": 1661.96, "end": 1665.54, "text": "The other thing is that there were a lot of journalists in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-021", "start": 1665.54, "end": 1666.62, "text": "Vietnam during this time.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-022", "start": 1666.72, "end": 1672.04, "text": "And they were reporting on how America was killing Vietnamese for", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0022-chunk-023", "start": 1672.04, "end": 1672.54, "text": "no reason.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "e3dc159f1f00498ac6a3665fa85bf07774ba4cacf8a7484c7bb2d3376d849c32", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0022", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=1599s", "time_label": "26:39", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0023", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "start": 1672.72, "end": 1756.7, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "So the most famous story is something called the Mai Lai Massacre where American soldiers went into a Vietnamese village and killed everyone there, okay? 300 people, 400 people, okay? And this was happening actually quite a lot. So there was widespread anger and protest in America at this time, which ultimately forced America to withdraw in 1973, okay? And the US military was very angry about this war because the thing about generals is they don't like to lose wars, okay? When they fight wars, they want to win at all costs. And they felt that they were betrayed by the country. They were fighting hard to maintain the American empire, to fight against communism. And this was bringing wealth, power, and prestige to America. But the American people, the American politicians, the American democracy republic, refused to make the necessary sacrifices in order to maintain this empire. And so many American generals felt betrayed by what happened in Vietnam, okay?", "word_count": 162, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-001", "start": 1672.72, "end": 1675.46, "text": "So the most famous story is something called the Mai Lai Massacre", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-002", "start": 1675.46, "end": 1680.32, "text": "where American soldiers went into a Vietnamese village and killed everyone there,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-003", "start": 1680.46, "end": 1682.18, "text": "okay? 300 people, 400 people,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-004", "start": 1682.24, "end": 1684.32, "text": "okay? And this was happening actually quite a lot.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-005", "start": 1684.8, "end": 1691.66, "text": "So there was widespread anger and protest in America at this time,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-006", "start": 1691.8, "end": 1696.56, "text": "which ultimately forced America to withdraw in 1973,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-007", "start": 1697, "end": 1709.27, "text": "okay? And the US military was very angry about this war because", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-008", "start": 1709.27, "end": 1712.57, "text": "the thing about generals is they don't like to lose wars,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-009", "start": 1712.85, "end": 1715.23, "text": "okay? When they fight wars,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-010", "start": 1715.43, "end": 1718.49, "text": "they want to win at all costs.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-011", "start": 1718.75, "end": 1723.59, "text": "And they felt that they were betrayed by the country.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-012", "start": 1725.95, "end": 1729.75, "text": "They were fighting hard to maintain the American empire,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-013", "start": 1729.97, "end": 1731.87, "text": "to fight against communism.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-014", "start": 1732.17, "end": 1734.21, "text": "And this was bringing wealth,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-015", "start": 1734.55, "end": 1736.79, "text": "power, and prestige to America.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-016", "start": 1737.36, "end": 1740.28, "text": "But the American people, the American politicians,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-017", "start": 1740.7, "end": 1746.96, "text": "the American democracy republic, refused to make the necessary sacrifices in order", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-018", "start": 1746.96, "end": 1749.42, "text": "to maintain this empire.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-019", "start": 1749.96, "end": 1755.28, "text": "And so many American generals felt betrayed by what", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0023-chunk-020", "start": 1755.28, "end": 1756.7, "text": "happened in Vietnam, okay?", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "684bd412dd363788ead0c1056f3d20bafda998d698b6cf24e761ea535c0e75f9", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0023", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=1672s", "time_label": "27:52", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0024", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "start": 1756.82, "end": 1834.7, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Now, there's a very famous incident during this war called the Pentagon Papers in 1971. In 1971, a group of American analysts, okay? These were military analysts working in the military. They secretly got together and they tried to compose a secret history of the Vietnam War. And this was called the Pentagon Papers. This was meant to be classified. This was not meant to be read by the public. But one of them, Daniel Ellsberg, linked it to the newspapers, Washington Post and New York Times. And they published it. And people were angry by the Pentagon Papers because what the Pentagon Papers said is, one, America has been secretly fighting this war for a long time, okay? So many presidents, including Eisenhower, Kennedy, and Lyndon Johnson, were expanding this war without public approval, without congressional approval, okay? So there was a lot of deception. That's the first thing. Second thing is that the politicians, the presidents, knew this war was not winnable.", "word_count": 164, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-001", "start": 1756.82, "end": 1759.9, "text": "Now, there's a very famous incident during this war called the Pentagon", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-002", "start": 1759.9, "end": 1765.4, "text": "Papers in 1971.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-003", "start": 1766.78, "end": 1772.32, "text": "In 1971, a group of American analysts,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-004", "start": 1772.58, "end": 1776.06, "text": "okay? These were military analysts working in the military.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-005", "start": 1776.24, "end": 1781.46, "text": "They secretly got together and they tried to compose a secret history", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-006", "start": 1781.46, "end": 1783.12, "text": "of the Vietnam War.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-007", "start": 1783.26, "end": 1784.78, "text": "And this was called the Pentagon Papers.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-008", "start": 1784.98, "end": 1787.06, "text": "This was meant to be classified.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-009", "start": 1787.46, "end": 1791, "text": "This was not meant to be read by the public.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-010", "start": 1791.24, "end": 1793.76, "text": "But one of them, Daniel Ellsberg,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-011", "start": 1793.98, "end": 1796.4, "text": "linked it to the newspapers,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-012", "start": 1796.56, "end": 1797.8, "text": "Washington Post and New York Times.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-013", "start": 1797.96, "end": 1798.9, "text": "And they published it.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-014", "start": 1799.24, "end": 1803.46, "text": "And people were angry by the Pentagon Papers because what the Pentagon", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-015", "start": 1803.46, "end": 1809.88, "text": "Papers said is, one, America has been secretly fighting this war for", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-016", "start": 1809.88, "end": 1811.69, "text": "a long time, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-017", "start": 1812.13, "end": 1815.33, "text": "So many presidents, including Eisenhower,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-018", "start": 1815.33, "end": 1822.32, "text": "Kennedy, and Lyndon Johnson, were expanding this war without public approval,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-019", "start": 1822.58, "end": 1824.02, "text": "without congressional approval, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-020", "start": 1824.16, "end": 1825.22, "text": "So there was a lot of deception.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-021", "start": 1825.5, "end": 1826.18, "text": "That's the first thing.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-022", "start": 1826.64, "end": 1830.98, "text": "Second thing is that the politicians,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0024-chunk-023", "start": 1831.22, "end": 1834.7, "text": "the presidents, knew this war was not winnable.", "word_count": 8 } ], "text_sha256": "89bfbd35c0215965bb825df0c9ea894f5e82851f5a47159e06e5283d89cf5ee7", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0024", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=1756s", "time_label": "29:16", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0025", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "start": 1835.02, "end": 1902.42, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "You couldn't win this war, okay? And the reason why is that these Vietnamese peasants, they were unbeatable. Because what they were doing was they were digging tunnels underground. And then when American soldiers were coming, they would just pop out of these tunnels, shoot at them, and then disappear back into the tunnels, okay? It was like as though they could swim underground. They were not beatable. Second thing is that they had an unlimited supply of weapons. And you're like, wait a minute. These peasants don't have weapons. And the answer is they got these weapons from their enemies, okay? So the first thing is that these soldiers, these American soldiers were in the jungle, and they were carrying backpacks of ammunition, right? And sometimes they would lose a fight or they would run away in the jungle because it's very hard to carry these backpacks of ammunition, right? They would drop these ammunition, and guess what?", "word_count": 159, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-001", "start": 1835.02, "end": 1836.5, "text": "You couldn't win this war,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-002", "start": 1836.69, "end": 1846.57, "text": "okay? And the reason why is that these Vietnamese peasants,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-003", "start": 1846.57, "end": 1848.65, "text": "they were unbeatable.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-004", "start": 1849.11, "end": 1853.01, "text": "Because what they were doing was they were digging tunnels underground.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-005", "start": 1853.88, "end": 1856.1, "text": "And then when American soldiers were coming,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-006", "start": 1856.22, "end": 1857.62, "text": "they would just pop out of these tunnels,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-007", "start": 1857.76, "end": 1859.78, "text": "shoot at them, and then disappear back into the tunnels,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-008", "start": 1859.9, "end": 1862.66, "text": "okay? It was like as though they could swim underground.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-009", "start": 1863.2, "end": 1864.38, "text": "They were not beatable.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-010", "start": 1864.68, "end": 1870.06, "text": "Second thing is that they had an unlimited supply of weapons.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-011", "start": 1870.76, "end": 1872.58, "text": "And you're like, wait a minute.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-012", "start": 1874.86, "end": 1876.88, "text": "These peasants don't have weapons.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-013", "start": 1876.88, "end": 1880.42, "text": "And the answer is they got these weapons from their enemies,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-014", "start": 1880.68, "end": 1886.38, "text": "okay? So the first thing is that these soldiers,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-015", "start": 1886.64, "end": 1888.4, "text": "these American soldiers were in the jungle,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-016", "start": 1888.52, "end": 1892.58, "text": "and they were carrying backpacks of ammunition,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-017", "start": 1892.92, "end": 1896.44, "text": "right? And sometimes they would lose a fight or they would run", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-018", "start": 1896.44, "end": 1899.54, "text": "away in the jungle because it's very hard to carry these backpacks", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-019", "start": 1899.54, "end": 1900.2, "text": "of ammunition, right?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-020", "start": 1900.32, "end": 1900.58, "text": "They", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0025-chunk-021", "start": 1900.58, "end": 1902.42, "text": "would drop these ammunition, and guess what?", "word_count": 7 } ], "text_sha256": "f15d9e56e437c4a09c11b548468929a876d70563809b047911d964a77bd93ed8", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0025", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=1835s", "time_label": "30:35", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0026", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "start": 1902.96, "end": 1968.6, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "You're now arming the enemy, right? Because these peasants would pick up these ammo and use it themselves. That's the first thing. Second thing is that the U.S. military dropped more bombs on Vietnam than in World War II combined, okay? More bombs were dropped in Vietnam than in World War II combined. Does that make sense? And about 20 % of these bombs didn't explode. And if they didn't explode, the enemy could pick them up, and transform them into land mines. And it was these land mines that were killing more Americans than anything else. That's the second thing. And the third thing was that the South Vietnamese army was extremely corrupt. So they were taking these American weapons and selling them to the rebels, okay? So then the question then is, you can't really see this enemy. They're everywhere, okay? They can swim underground. And if you're supplying them", "word_count": 153, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-001", "start": 1902.96, "end": 1905.93, "text": "You're now arming the enemy,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-002", "start": 1906.09, "end": 1908.87, "text": "right? Because these peasants would pick up these ammo and use it", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-003", "start": 1908.87, "end": 1910.47, "text": "themselves. That's the first thing.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-004", "start": 1910.55, "end": 1914.86, "text": "Second thing is that the U.S.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-005", "start": 1914.94, "end": 1922.42, "text": "military dropped more bombs on Vietnam than in World War II combined,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-006", "start": 1922.84, "end": 1928.6, "text": "okay? More bombs were dropped in Vietnam than in World War II", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-007", "start": 1928.6, "end": 1931.22, "text": "combined. Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-008", "start": 1932.06, "end": 1934.96, "text": "And about 20 % of these bombs didn't explode.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-009", "start": 1935.42, "end": 1936.7, "text": "And if they didn't explode,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-010", "start": 1936.92, "end": 1938.46, "text": "the enemy could pick them up,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-011", "start": 1938.48, "end": 1941.12, "text": "and transform them into land mines.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-012", "start": 1942.37, "end": 1945.55, "text": "And it was these land mines that were killing more Americans than", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-013", "start": 1945.55, "end": 1946.09, "text": "anything else.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-014", "start": 1946.63, "end": 1947.69, "text": "That's the second thing.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-015", "start": 1947.75, "end": 1953.1, "text": "And the third thing was that the South Vietnamese army was extremely", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-016", "start": 1953.1, "end": 1957.88, "text": "corrupt. So they were taking these American weapons and selling them to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-017", "start": 1957.88, "end": 1960.3, "text": "the rebels, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-018", "start": 1961, "end": 1962.34, "text": "So then the question then is,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-019", "start": 1962.46, "end": 1964.26, "text": "you can't really see this enemy.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-020", "start": 1964.48, "end": 1965.56, "text": "They're everywhere, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-021", "start": 1965.62, "end": 1966.28, "text": "They can swim underground.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0026-chunk-022", "start": 1967.3, "end": 1968.6, "text": "And if you're supplying them", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "0afc3f171fdc4c394c4713150da239606cc9a1e3f9101c0e0ab5a864d1fbdce0", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0026", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=1902s", "time_label": "31:42", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0027", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "start": 1968.6, "end": 2034.02, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "yourself, no matter how much weapons you can bring into this country, how are you going to win this war? The other thing is that these peasants were getting angry at you because obviously in this war, you're killing a lot of innocent people, right? Who happens to be their brothers, their sisters, their children, their parents, okay? So as this war was dragging on, the Vietnamese were becoming more embittered and more angry. So there was no way you were going to win this war. Okay? That's a Pentagon paper, second thing. The third thing is, okay, the question then is, if these American presidents, these American leaders know for a fact that this war cannot be won, why were they fighting this war? Why were they continuing to fight this war? And the answer is, unfortunately, the answer is credibility, okay? We don't want to lose face, guys, okay? We don't want to lose face. If we withdraw", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-001", "start": 1968.6, "end": 1972.12, "text": "yourself, no matter how much weapons you can bring into this country,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-002", "start": 1972.38, "end": 1973.84, "text": "how are you going to win this war?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-003", "start": 1974.24, "end": 1978.26, "text": "The other thing is that these peasants were getting angry at you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-004", "start": 1978.26, "end": 1979.88, "text": "because obviously in this war,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-005", "start": 1979.96, "end": 1981.32, "text": "you're killing a lot of innocent people,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-006", "start": 1981.4, "end": 1982.94, "text": "right? Who happens to be their brothers,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-007", "start": 1983.18, "end": 1986.06, "text": "their sisters, their children, their parents,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-008", "start": 1986.22, "end": 1989.54, "text": "okay? So as this war was dragging on,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-009", "start": 1989.9, "end": 1994.98, "text": "the Vietnamese were becoming more embittered and more angry.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-010", "start": 1996.04, "end": 1999.34, "text": "So there was no way you were going to win this war.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-011", "start": 1999.34, "end": 2002.64, "text": "Okay? That's a Pentagon paper,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-012", "start": 2002.74, "end": 2003.14, "text": "second thing.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-013", "start": 2003.28, "end": 2004.7, "text": "The third thing is, okay,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-014", "start": 2004.78, "end": 2011.22, "text": "the question then is, if these American presidents,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-015", "start": 2011.5, "end": 2014.28, "text": "these American leaders know for a fact that this war cannot be", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-016", "start": 2014.28, "end": 2016.9, "text": "won, why were they fighting this war?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-017", "start": 2017.2, "end": 2018.6, "text": "Why were they continuing to fight this war?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-018", "start": 2019.51, "end": 2021.35, "text": "And the answer is, unfortunately,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-019", "start": 2021.49, "end": 2023.81, "text": "the answer is credibility, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-020", "start": 2027.05, "end": 2028.41, "text": "We don't want to lose face,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-021", "start": 2028.61, "end": 2030.03, "text": "guys, okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-022", "start": 2030.72, "end": 2032.22, "text": "We don't want to lose face.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0027-chunk-023", "start": 2032.22, "end": 2034.02, "text": "If we withdraw", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "4f1cae7d6dde8057127d32963e7935623276801f36c63f9a02178f6b9ba92777", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0027", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=1968s", "time_label": "32:48", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0028", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "start": 2034.02, "end": 2109.227, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "from Vietnam, if we admit that peasants in pajamas can beat us, Soviet Union would laugh at us. China would laugh at us. The entire world would laugh at us. We don't want to be laughed at. So that's why we're staying in this war, okay? So to summarize what the Pentagon Papers said, okay? Three things. One is that the American government lied to the people and turned this into a major war. That's the first thing. Second thing is that America cannot possibly win this war, okay? And the third thing is that America's only in this war to avoid losing face. That's it. There was no strategic purpose. There was no strategic objectives from fighting this war. It was just, like, we don't want to lose face. We don't want to be laughed at. That's it, okay? So obviously, when the Pentagon Papers were released to the public, everyone was angry, okay? And the anger was so tremendous that America had no choice but to ultimately withdraw from the war.", "word_count": 173, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-001", "start": 2034.02, "end": 2040.72, "text": "from Vietnam, if we admit that peasants in pajamas can beat us,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-002", "start": 2041.32, "end": 2042.8, "text": "Soviet Union would laugh at us.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-003", "start": 2043.41, "end": 2044.67, "text": "China would laugh at us.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-004", "start": 2044.75, "end": 2046.55, "text": "The entire world would laugh at us.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-005", "start": 2046.69, "end": 2047.81, "text": "We don't want to be laughed at.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-006", "start": 2048.01, "end": 2050.83, "text": "So that's why we're staying in this war,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-007", "start": 2051.01, "end": 2056.13, "text": "okay? So to summarize what the Pentagon Papers said,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-008", "start": 2056.33, "end": 2056.99, "text": "okay? Three things.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-009", "start": 2057.51, "end": 2066.01, "text": "One is that the American government lied to the people and turned", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-010", "start": 2066.01, "end": 2067.19, "text": "this into a major war.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-011", "start": 2067.57, "end": 2068.31, "text": "That's the first thing.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-012", "start": 2068.35, "end": 2072.23, "text": "Second thing is that America cannot possibly win this war,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-013", "start": 2072.43, "end": 2079.15, "text": "okay? And the third thing is that America's only in this war", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-014", "start": 2080.29, "end": 2081.79, "text": "to avoid losing face.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-015", "start": 2081.99, "end": 2082.37, "text": "That's it.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-016", "start": 2082.53, "end": 2084.63, "text": "There was no strategic purpose.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-017", "start": 2086.46, "end": 2089.4, "text": "There was no strategic objectives from fighting this war.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-018", "start": 2089.5, "end": 2090.84, "text": "It was just, like, we don't want to lose face.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-019", "start": 2091.3, "end": 2092.5, "text": "We don't want to be laughed at.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-020", "start": 2092.54, "end": 2093.46, "text": "That's it, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-021", "start": 2093.88, "end": 2098.1, "text": "So obviously, when the Pentagon Papers were released to the public,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-022", "start": 2098.58, "end": 2100.64, "text": "everyone was angry, okay?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-023", "start": 2101.33, "end": 2103.93, "text": "And the anger was so", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-024", "start": 2103.93, "end": 2108.69, "text": "tremendous that America had no choice but to ultimately withdraw from the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0028-chunk-025", "start": 2108.69, "end": 2109.227, "text": "war.", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "a106d98ed1f4b1cb5d5aef9dfabea859ea0ca32445ad2473584e3d0cfebcc895", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0028", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=2034s", "time_label": "33:54", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0029", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "start": 2109.227, "end": 2194.84, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And so the Pentagon felt betrayed by democracy. The politicians were more concerned about winning elections than about winning wars, okay? People could protest and defy the military. They refused to make the sacrifices necessary to win this war. And the media could insult the military. So there were many in the military who thought that, listen, if we are to maintain the empire, we need to divorce the empire from democracy, okay? Empire, democracy, do not get along. If we want to win a war, our greatest enemy is not the enemy but democracy in America. And that's why you have shock and awe, right? Because the entire point of shock and awe is to minimize casualties. And if there are casualties, you can't see them because they're all blown up, right? And it's quick, so it's impossible for people to start to get angry, okay?", "word_count": 147, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-001", "start": 2109.227, "end": 2113.52, "text": "And so the Pentagon felt betrayed by democracy.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-002", "start": 2116.42, "end": 2121.7, "text": "The politicians were more concerned about winning elections than about winning wars,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-003", "start": 2121.86, "end": 2130.07, "text": "okay? People could protest and defy the military.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-004", "start": 2130.45, "end": 2134.37, "text": "They refused to make the sacrifices necessary to win this war.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-005", "start": 2134.87, "end": 2140.96, "text": "And the media could insult the military.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-006", "start": 2142.79, "end": 2147.01, "text": "So there were many in the military who thought that,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-007", "start": 2147.09, "end": 2150.71, "text": "listen, if we are to maintain the empire,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-008", "start": 2151.09, "end": 2155.38, "text": "we need to divorce the empire from democracy,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-009", "start": 2155.78, "end": 2160.83, "text": "okay? Empire, democracy, do not get along.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-010", "start": 2162, "end": 2163.98, "text": "If we want to win a war,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-011", "start": 2164.78, "end": 2169.32, "text": "our greatest enemy is not the enemy but democracy in America.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-012", "start": 2169.88, "end": 2173, "text": "And that's why you have shock and awe,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-013", "start": 2173.52, "end": 2179.5, "text": "right? Because the entire point of shock and awe is to minimize", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-014", "start": 2179.5, "end": 2182.92, "text": "casualties. And if there are casualties,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-015", "start": 2183.14, "end": 2185.58, "text": "you can't see them because they're all blown up,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-016", "start": 2185.92, "end": 2194.2, "text": "right? And it's quick, so it's impossible for people to start to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0029-chunk-017", "start": 2194.2, "end": 2194.84, "text": "get angry, okay?", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "ce0fb906cb1e9ee4bc49f6b72a90ffb462e923d51229b44e74061ac7042bfc16", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0029", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=2109s", "time_label": "35:09", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0030", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "start": 2195.1, "end": 2277.86, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Shock and awe means that America no longer has to make any sacrifices. You no longer need the consent of the people to fight the war. You don't even need congressional approval to fight the war. You can now escape the shackles of democracy in order to do what you must to protect the American empire, okay? Does that make sense? So shock and awe was really a response to Vietnam War. And what shock and awe means is that the empire is no longer burdened by democracy. Special forces can go and do what they must without any oversight and consent from the people, okay? Does that make sense, guys? Okay, so shock and awe is really a fear of empire, what America must do in order to maintain its empire around the world. Any questions before I move on about this? Okay, so Sunan asked a great question, which is, okay, I make the argument that shock and awe only works in Iraq, right?", "word_count": 166, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-001", "start": 2195.1, "end": 2199.3, "text": "Shock and awe means that America no longer has to make any", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-002", "start": 2199.3, "end": 2203.29, "text": "sacrifices. You no longer need the consent of the people to fight", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-003", "start": 2203.29, "end": 2203.69, "text": "the war.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-004", "start": 2203.87, "end": 2207.59, "text": "You don't even need congressional approval to fight the war.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-005", "start": 2208.24, "end": 2214.7, "text": "You can now escape the shackles of democracy in order to do", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-006", "start": 2214.7, "end": 2217.6, "text": "what you must to protect the American empire,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-007", "start": 2218.07, "end": 2220.43, "text": "okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-008", "start": 2221.54, "end": 2225.32, "text": "So shock and awe was really a response to Vietnam War.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-009", "start": 2225.6, "end": 2232.61, "text": "And what shock and awe means is that the empire is no", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-010", "start": 2232.61, "end": 2233.95, "text": "longer burdened by democracy.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-011", "start": 2235.36, "end": 2239.9, "text": "Special forces can go and do what they must without any oversight", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-012", "start": 2239.9, "end": 2242.06, "text": "and consent from the people,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-013", "start": 2242.2, "end": 2244, "text": "okay? Does that make sense,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-014", "start": 2244.08, "end": 2248.45, "text": "guys? Okay, so shock and awe is really a fear of empire,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-015", "start": 2248.65, "end": 2254.43, "text": "what America must do in order to maintain its empire around the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-016", "start": 2254.43, "end": 2258.07, "text": "world. Any questions before I move on about this?", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-017", "start": 2270.56, "end": 2272.36, "text": "Okay, so Sunan asked a great question,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-018", "start": 2272.44, "end": 2274.28, "text": "which is, okay, I make the argument that shock and", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-019", "start": 2274.28, "end": 2276.98, "text": "awe only works in Iraq,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0030-chunk-020", "start": 2277.28, "end": 2277.86, "text": "right?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "b1a7cff2a5d7273a55a37c8c912780f1aa5d2c11372852b59bdef01658e228d6", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0030", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=2195s", "time_label": "36:35", "tags": [ "monologue", "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0031", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "start": 2277.86, "end": 2362.51, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And what would happen in other words? Okay, so the thing about America for the past 20 years, it's been mainly fighting wars in the Middle East. And it turns out the entire Middle East is a desert, okay? All right, so the shock and awe policy has had tremendous success in Iraq and then in Libya, okay? Because America overthrew Gaddafi in Libya. And it's also had some success in Syria as well, okay? So from the perspective of America, we're really only fighting wars in a desert. Shock and awe is fine, okay? But our next class, we'll discuss Iran. And Iran is not a desert, it's mountains. And I'll show you that shock and awe is not gonna work in Iran, okay? But that's next class, okay? Does that make sense? All right, any more questions? Yeah, yeah, yeah, okay. So Jack makes a great point, which is, okay, yeah, but most people would say that America lost the Iraq war because of the insurgency, right?", "word_count": 169, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-001", "start": 2277.86, "end": 2281.92, "text": "And what would happen in other words?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-002", "start": 2282.14, "end": 2286.82, "text": "Okay, so the thing about America for the past 20 years,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-003", "start": 2287.12, "end": 2289.18, "text": "it's been mainly fighting wars in the Middle East.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-004", "start": 2289.79, "end": 2292.61, "text": "And it turns out the entire Middle East is a desert,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-005", "start": 2292.71, "end": 2296.65, "text": "okay? All right, so the shock and awe policy has had tremendous", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-006", "start": 2296.65, "end": 2301.57, "text": "success in Iraq and then in Libya,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-007", "start": 2302, "end": 2305.9, "text": "okay? Because America overthrew Gaddafi in Libya.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-008", "start": 2306.18, "end": 2308.74, "text": "And it's also had some success in Syria as well,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-009", "start": 2308.86, "end": 2312.18, "text": "okay? So from the perspective of America,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-010", "start": 2312.5, "end": 2314.62, "text": "we're really only fighting wars in a desert.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-011", "start": 2314.78, "end": 2315.72, "text": "Shock and awe is fine,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-012", "start": 2315.98, "end": 2320.18, "text": "okay? But our next class,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-013", "start": 2320.24, "end": 2321.12, "text": "we'll discuss Iran.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-014", "start": 2321.44, "end": 2323, "text": "And Iran is not a desert,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-015", "start": 2323.12, "end": 2323.76, "text": "it's mountains.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-016", "start": 2323.76, "end": 2327.46, "text": "And I'll show you that shock and awe is not gonna work", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-017", "start": 2327.46, "end": 2328.82, "text": "in Iran, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-018", "start": 2328.88, "end": 2329.8, "text": "But that's next class, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-019", "start": 2329.84, "end": 2330.62, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-020", "start": 2331.62, "end": 2333.46, "text": "All right, any more questions?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-021", "start": 2345.34, "end": 2351.85, "text": "Yeah, yeah, yeah, okay.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-022", "start": 2351.97, "end": 2353.45, "text": "So Jack makes a great point,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-023", "start": 2353.51, "end": 2355.91, "text": "which is, okay, yeah, but", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-024", "start": 2355.91, "end": 2361.73, "text": "most people would say that America lost the Iraq war because of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0031-chunk-025", "start": 2361.73, "end": 2362.51, "text": "the insurgency, right?", "word_count": 3 } ], "text_sha256": "284e5f66a826441c2136b36b020cfb180bfc48308b747f14239ec25959a9333e", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0031", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=2277s", "time_label": "37:57", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0032", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "start": 2362.89, "end": 2418.902, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay, so, okay, that's a great point, okay? You can make the point that America for the past 20 years have lost all wars in Iraq and Afghanistan because they have not been able to control the insurgency, okay? But the problem with this is that shock and awe, it's not designed to stabilize countries. Shock and awe is meant to topple and destroy countries, do you understand? And so the argument can be made that the real intention of shock and awe is to make sure that no power in the Middle East can arise to challenge America's support and supremacy, okay? So, yeah, in Iraq, the insurgents ultimately won, but is Iraq a functional state? And the answer is no, right? Is Libya a functional state? No. There's still a civil war going on in Syria, all right? So that's a great point, okay?", "word_count": 146, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-001", "start": 2362.89, "end": 2366.9, "text": "Okay, so, okay, that's a great point,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-002", "start": 2366.98, "end": 2369.28, "text": "okay? You can make the point that America for the past 20", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-003", "start": 2369.28, "end": 2372.72, "text": "years have lost all wars in Iraq and Afghanistan because they have", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-004", "start": 2372.72, "end": 2374.7, "text": "not been able to control the insurgency,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-005", "start": 2374.94, "end": 2378.72, "text": "okay? But the problem with this is that shock and awe,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-006", "start": 2378.94, "end": 2382.36, "text": "it's not designed to stabilize countries.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-007", "start": 2382.84, "end": 2387.48, "text": "Shock and awe is meant to topple and destroy countries,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-008", "start": 2387.72, "end": 2388.02, "text": "do you understand?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-009", "start": 2388.82, "end": 2391.88, "text": "And so the argument can be made that the real intention of", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-010", "start": 2391.88, "end": 2395.5, "text": "shock and awe is to make sure that no power in the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-011", "start": 2395.5, "end": 2398.88, "text": "Middle East can arise to challenge America's support and supremacy,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-012", "start": 2399.18, "end": 2402.82, "text": "okay? So, yeah, in Iraq,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-013", "start": 2403.2, "end": 2409.62, "text": "the insurgents ultimately won, but is Iraq a functional state?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-014", "start": 2409.78, "end": 2410.3, "text": "And the answer is no,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-015", "start": 2410.44, "end": 2412.26, "text": "right? Is Libya a functional state?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-016", "start": 2412.42, "end": 2415.14, "text": "No. There's still a civil war going on in Syria,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-017", "start": 2415.3, "end": 2415.92, "text": "all right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-018", "start": 2416.1, "end": 2418.1, "text": "So that's a great point,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0032-chunk-019", "start": 2418.36, "end": 2418.902, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "6c8f43bb094ded36e2d431cbe8c31db1ebe7e0bd658092cd36d82cbce3149bbf", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0032", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=2362s", "time_label": "39:22", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0033", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "start": 2418.902, "end": 2483.833, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And it comes down to what is the ultimate design and intention of the empire? Is it to replace regimes? Or is it to destroy countries? And you make the argument that shock and awe is really designed to destroy countries and not to replace regimes, okay? Does that make sense? Okay, now, what's important to understand is that one of the theories of the invasion of Iraq is to bring democracy to the country, okay? But the problem with that is, from the start, they did everything wrong, okay? So first thing is, they really didn't have enough soldiers to maintain peace, right, in the country, so there was a lot of looting. So the entire country broke down. Second thing is that during the air campaign, America destroyed all the infrastructure necessary for society, okay? So including water supply, including electricity grid. Why would you do that if your intention was to bring democracy to the country, right?", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-001", "start": 2418.902, "end": 2424.86, "text": "And it comes down to what is the ultimate design and", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-002", "start": 2424.86, "end": 2426.48, "text": "intention of the empire?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-003", "start": 2426.94, "end": 2428.86, "text": "Is it to replace regimes?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-004", "start": 2429, "end": 2430.8, "text": "Or is it to destroy countries?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-005", "start": 2431.06, "end": 2433.86, "text": "And you make the argument that shock and awe is really designed", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-006", "start": 2433.86, "end": 2439.37, "text": "to destroy countries and not to replace regimes,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-007", "start": 2439.55, "end": 2440.31, "text": "okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-008", "start": 2440.65, "end": 2446.85, "text": "Okay, now, what's important to understand is that one of the theories", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-009", "start": 2446.85, "end": 2450.85, "text": "of the invasion of Iraq is to bring democracy to the country,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-010", "start": 2451.36, "end": 2455.06, "text": "okay? But the problem with that is,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-011", "start": 2455.26, "end": 2458.1, "text": "from the start, they did everything wrong,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-012", "start": 2458.42, "end": 2460.56, "text": "okay? So first thing is,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-013", "start": 2460.72, "end": 2463.68, "text": "they really didn't have enough soldiers to maintain peace,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-014", "start": 2463.92, "end": 2465.88, "text": "right, in the country, so there was a lot of looting.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-015", "start": 2466.36, "end": 2468, "text": "So the entire country broke down.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-016", "start": 2468.24, "end": 2470.66, "text": "Second thing is that during the air campaign,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-017", "start": 2471.46, "end": 2475.5, "text": "America destroyed all the infrastructure necessary for society,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-018", "start": 2475.7, "end": 2477.32, "text": "okay? So including water supply,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-019", "start": 2477.54, "end": 2478.88, "text": "including electricity grid.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-020", "start": 2479.48, "end": 2482.82, "text": "Why would you do that if your intention was to bring democracy", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-021", "start": 2482.82, "end": 2483.38, "text": "to the country,", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0033-chunk-022", "start": 2483.5, "end": 2483.833, "text": "right?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "38e4576e16b2858761abf4fec96a00a33df9a578392ce8e9d01f7391066acf35", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0033", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=2418s", "time_label": "40:18", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0034", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "start": 2483.833, "end": 2538.344, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "The third thing is that the very first thing the American government did when they took control over Iraq is something called depopulation, okay? Which is to say that if you used to work for the old government, you're now out of a job. Hey, the Iraqi military, you're now disbanded. And then the question then is, huh, if your ultimate objective is to bring democracy to the country, why would you destroy all political infrastructure in the country? Why would you destroy the ability for the country to survive? Why would you destroy the ability for the country to govern itself as well as to maintain order, as well as to feed the population? Why would you do that, okay? So an argument can be made that the real intention was not to bring democracy to Iraq, it was just to destroy Iraq, to maintain American supremacy as well as to teach others a lesson. Don't mess with us, we'll come and destroy you, okay?", "word_count": 166, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-001", "start": 2483.833, "end": 2487.5, "text": "The third thing is that the very first thing the American", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-002", "start": 2487.5, "end": 2492.3, "text": "government did when they took control over Iraq is something called depopulation,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-003", "start": 2492.68, "end": 2495.9, "text": "okay? Which is to say that if you used to work for", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-004", "start": 2495.9, "end": 2499.28, "text": "the old government, you're now out of a job.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-005", "start": 2499.78, "end": 2502.92, "text": "Hey, the Iraqi military, you're now disbanded.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-006", "start": 2504.3, "end": 2506.24, "text": "And then the question then is,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-007", "start": 2506.36, "end": 2511.58, "text": "huh, if your ultimate objective is to bring democracy to the country,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-008", "start": 2511.7, "end": 2516.32, "text": "why would you destroy all political infrastructure in the country?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-009", "start": 2516.86, "end": 2519.08, "text": "Why would you destroy the ability for the country to survive?", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-010", "start": 2519.1, "end": 2519.84, "text": "Why would you destroy the ability for the country to govern itself", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-011", "start": 2519.84, "end": 2521.16, "text": "as well as to maintain order,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-012", "start": 2521.36, "end": 2522.88, "text": "as well as to feed the population?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-013", "start": 2523.04, "end": 2523.54, "text": "Why would you do that,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-014", "start": 2523.68, "end": 2527.5, "text": "okay? So an argument can be made that the real intention was", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-015", "start": 2527.5, "end": 2528.72, "text": "not to bring democracy to Iraq,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-016", "start": 2528.86, "end": 2529.8, "text": "it was just to destroy Iraq,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-017", "start": 2529.98, "end": 2536.58, "text": "to maintain American supremacy as well as to teach others a lesson.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-018", "start": 2536.74, "end": 2537.22, "text": "Don't mess with", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-019", "start": 2537.22, "end": 2538.16, "text": "us, we'll come and destroy you,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0034-chunk-020", "start": 2538.22, "end": 2538.344, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "5225cf98f898e945e9f5cad2e11ba3dcf8d62de7ba58a4586336064be0f170ea", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0034", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=2483s", "time_label": "41:23", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0035", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "start": 2538.344, "end": 2620.7, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Does that make sense? Okay, but this is something we will discuss later on, okay? In another class, okay? All right, all right. Let's now move to the last topic. Which is the theory of empire. So this is not the first theory of empire America had. It's actually the second theory of empire. The first theory of empire was in 1991. Remember that in 1991, America launched an attack against Saddam Hussein because Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, right? So at that time, 1991, the Soviet Union had collapsed. America was the only hegemon, was the only power, and it presented a new theory of empire, how America will rule the world, okay? So the first idea is limited strategic goals or objectives, okay? So for example, in 2003, when America invaded Iraq, its strategic goals were pretty unachievable, okay? It was basically like, we're gonna bring democracy and peace to Iraq and the Middle East, okay?", "word_count": 157, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-001", "start": 2538.344, "end": 2538.84, "text": "Does that make sense?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-002", "start": 2542.14, "end": 2545, "text": "Okay, but this is something we will discuss later on,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-003", "start": 2545.04, "end": 2546.4, "text": "okay? In another class, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-004", "start": 2546.98, "end": 2548.82, "text": "All right, all right.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-005", "start": 2548.86, "end": 2550.58, "text": "Let's now move to the last topic.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-006", "start": 2551.22, "end": 2552.08, "text": "Which is the theory of empire.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-007", "start": 2553.67, "end": 2557.13, "text": "So this is not the first theory of empire America had.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-008", "start": 2557.27, "end": 2558.63, "text": "It's actually the second theory of empire.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-009", "start": 2561.18, "end": 2563.52, "text": "The first theory of empire was in 1991.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-010", "start": 2565.57, "end": 2574.37, "text": "Remember that in 1991, America launched an attack against Saddam Hussein because", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-011", "start": 2574.37, "end": 2576.95, "text": "Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, right?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-012", "start": 2578.91, "end": 2581.96, "text": "So at that time, 1991,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-013", "start": 2582.4, "end": 2583.66, "text": "the Soviet Union had collapsed.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-014", "start": 2583.66, "end": 2585.62, "text": "America was the only hegemon,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-015", "start": 2585.92, "end": 2589.68, "text": "was the only power, and it presented a new theory of empire,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-016", "start": 2590, "end": 2591.9, "text": "how America will rule the world,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-017", "start": 2591.98, "end": 2602.34, "text": "okay? So the first idea is limited strategic goals or objectives,", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-018", "start": 2602.54, "end": 2605.62, "text": "okay? So for example, in 2003,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-019", "start": 2605.94, "end": 2614.96, "text": "when America invaded Iraq, its strategic goals were pretty unachievable,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-020", "start": 2615.06, "end": 2615.98, "text": "okay? It was basically like,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-021", "start": 2616.38, "end": 2619.34, "text": "we're gonna bring democracy and peace to Iraq and", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0035-chunk-022", "start": 2619.34, "end": 2620.7, "text": "the Middle East, okay?", "word_count": 4 } ], "text_sha256": "ae15920d4d544724945bdf218c3a8ae630da573ed82d18cb5733b4fb360bc29b", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0035", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=2538s", "time_label": "42:18", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0036", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "start": 2621.17, "end": 2687.98, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Whereas in the Persian Gulf War, led by the father, right, George Herbert Walker Bush, the first and only goal was to remove Saddam Hussein from Kuwait. That's it, okay? We're not gonna go to Iraq and topple Saddam Hussein. We're not gonna inflict punishment on Saddam Hussein. All we wanna do is remove him from Kuwait, okay? That's the first thing. Second thing is that America did so with a coalition of countries, okay? Dozens of other countries were part of the war, and America played a leading role, but it also had to defer to its partners, okay? So for example, countries like Saudi Arabia, who participated in the war, were like, there's no way we'll topple Saddam Hussein. We'll only stop at Kuwait, okay? So the United States deferred to its partners, okay? And the third thing was, and this is the most important, is that the ultimate leader was the United Nations.", "word_count": 156, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-001", "start": 2621.17, "end": 2623.15, "text": "Whereas in the Persian Gulf War,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-002", "start": 2623.31, "end": 2625.21, "text": "led by the father, right,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-003", "start": 2625.31, "end": 2631.13, "text": "George Herbert Walker Bush, the first and only goal was to remove", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-004", "start": 2631.13, "end": 2633.85, "text": "Saddam Hussein from Kuwait.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-005", "start": 2634.09, "end": 2635.13, "text": "That's it, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-006", "start": 2635.31, "end": 2637.67, "text": "We're not gonna go to Iraq and topple Saddam Hussein.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-007", "start": 2637.87, "end": 2640.33, "text": "We're not gonna inflict punishment on Saddam Hussein.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-008", "start": 2640.49, "end": 2643.51, "text": "All we wanna do is remove him from Kuwait,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-009", "start": 2643.65, "end": 2644.91, "text": "okay? That's the first thing.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-010", "start": 2644.91, "end": 2653.92, "text": "Second thing is that America did so with a coalition of countries,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-011", "start": 2654.18, "end": 2659.14, "text": "okay? Dozens of other countries were part of the war,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-012", "start": 2659.28, "end": 2661.14, "text": "and America played a leading role,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-013", "start": 2661.4, "end": 2663.7, "text": "but it also had to defer to its partners,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-014", "start": 2663.84, "end": 2668.56, "text": "okay? So for example, countries like Saudi Arabia,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-015", "start": 2668.6, "end": 2670.16, "text": "who participated in the war,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-016", "start": 2670.2, "end": 2672.66, "text": "were like, there's no way we'll topple Saddam Hussein.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-017", "start": 2672.82, "end": 2674.48, "text": "We'll only stop at Kuwait,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-018", "start": 2674.56, "end": 2677.62, "text": "okay? So the United States deferred to its partners,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-019", "start": 2677.74, "end": 2680.53, "text": "okay? And the third thing was,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-020", "start": 2681.13, "end": 2682.17, "text": "and this is the most important,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0036-chunk-021", "start": 2682.35, "end": 2687.98, "text": "is that the ultimate leader was the United Nations.", "word_count": 9 } ], "text_sha256": "6b03607c06ba2e4ec9a1c6eb7fe85f6f40937b6bd690fb3bc35acac8ea9aa761", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0036", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=2621s", "time_label": "43:41", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0037", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "start": 2688.42, "end": 2762.78, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "The United States had to go and make a case to the United Nations. The United Nations gave its consent to the military action, okay? So the United States made the argument that this is not a U.S. military action. It is a U.N. military action, okay? And so the important principle is to maintain the rules based in national order, okay? So what America said at that point is, yeah, I know we are the greatest power in the world. I know the Soviet Union has collapsed. I know that militarily no one can challenge us. But with this power comes great responsibility. We must show humility. We must show discipline. We must show restraint. Our priority will be to maintain the national rules based order because this will bring prosperity, freedom, and stability to everyone, okay? And that means that if we use the military, it will only because it's the last resort, the last option, and only for a limited strategic objective.", "word_count": 167, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-001", "start": 2688.42, "end": 2692.12, "text": "The United States had to go and make a case to the", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-002", "start": 2692.12, "end": 2692.74, "text": "United Nations.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-003", "start": 2692.9, "end": 2696.98, "text": "The United Nations gave its consent to the military action,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-004", "start": 2697.16, "end": 2700.52, "text": "okay? So the United States made the argument that this is not", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-005", "start": 2700.52, "end": 2701.6, "text": "a U.S.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-006", "start": 2701.84, "end": 2702.44, "text": "military action.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-007", "start": 2702.54, "end": 2703.84, "text": "It is a U.N.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-008", "start": 2703.94, "end": 2705.4, "text": "military action, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-009", "start": 2705.84, "end": 2713.37, "text": "And so the important principle is to maintain the rules based in", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-010", "start": 2713.37, "end": 2715.96, "text": "national order, okay?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-011", "start": 2716.26, "end": 2719.38, "text": "So what America said at that point is,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-012", "start": 2719.5, "end": 2723.46, "text": "yeah, I know we are the greatest power in the world.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-013", "start": 2723.56, "end": 2725.2, "text": "I know the Soviet Union has collapsed.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-014", "start": 2725.48, "end": 2728.02, "text": "I know that militarily no one can challenge us.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-015", "start": 2728.42, "end": 2731.66, "text": "But with this power comes great responsibility.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-016", "start": 2731.94, "end": 2733.82, "text": "We must show humility.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-017", "start": 2734.26, "end": 2735.76, "text": "We must show discipline.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-018", "start": 2735.76, "end": 2737.36, "text": "We must show restraint.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-019", "start": 2738.06, "end": 2743.96, "text": "Our priority will be to maintain the national rules based order because", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-020", "start": 2743.96, "end": 2746.94, "text": "this will bring prosperity, freedom,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-021", "start": 2747.1, "end": 2749.9, "text": "and stability to everyone, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-022", "start": 2750.86, "end": 2754.32, "text": "And that means that if we use the military,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-023", "start": 2755.56, "end": 2758.92, "text": "it will only because it's the last resort,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-024", "start": 2759.08, "end": 2759.94, "text": "the last option,", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0037-chunk-025", "start": 2760.08, "end": 2762.78, "text": "and only for a limited strategic objective.", "word_count": 7 } ], "text_sha256": "b238b57b09edd22386deed9d8e5fa31cce3e24e05cab89cf388bc9ffedbdd458", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0037", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=2688s", "time_label": "44:48", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0038", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "start": 2764.67, "end": 2838.893, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "We will only do so with partners. And we will only do so under the umbrella of U.N. authority, okay? So this is the first theory of empire. When you think about it, wow, great! What a wonderful world, right? Here's a question then. Why did America not do this anymore? Why did it switch to shock and awe? Shock and awe is basically unlimited strategic goals, unilateral military action, right? We, America, will do this by ourselves. We don't really need anyone, okay? And America is just basically bullying. We make the rules. Why did America do this? Why this transition from the first theory of empire, which is great, it would allow America to rule the world forever, to now the second theory of empire, which is pissing the entire world off. Why? Okay, so this is really hard to understand, okay? But let's use an analogy, okay?", "word_count": 151, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-001", "start": 2764.67, "end": 2766.97, "text": "We will only do so with partners.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-002", "start": 2766.97, "end": 2772.73, "text": "And we will only do so under the umbrella of U.N.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-003", "start": 2772.75, "end": 2773.71, "text": "authority, okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-004", "start": 2774.35, "end": 2776.49, "text": "So this is the first theory of empire.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-005", "start": 2776.81, "end": 2777.67, "text": "When you think about it,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-006", "start": 2777.73, "end": 2779.57, "text": "wow, great!", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-007", "start": 2780.88, "end": 2782.74, "text": "What a wonderful world, right?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-008", "start": 2785.39, "end": 2786.45, "text": "Here's a question then.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-009", "start": 2787.36, "end": 2795.13, "text": "Why did America not do this anymore?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-010", "start": 2795.55, "end": 2796.79, "text": "Why did it switch to shock and awe?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-011", "start": 2797.01, "end": 2801.17, "text": "Shock and awe is basically unlimited strategic goals,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-012", "start": 2802.2, "end": 2803.94, "text": "unilateral military action, right?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-013", "start": 2803.94, "end": 2805.2, "text": "We, America, will do this by ourselves.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-014", "start": 2805.26, "end": 2806, "text": "We don't really need anyone,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-015", "start": 2806.47, "end": 2809.73, "text": "okay? And America is just basically bullying.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-016", "start": 2809.93, "end": 2811.07, "text": "We make the rules.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-017", "start": 2813.17, "end": 2814.29, "text": "Why did America do this?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-018", "start": 2815.07, "end": 2817.73, "text": "Why this transition from the first theory of empire,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-019", "start": 2817.97, "end": 2820.83, "text": "which is great, it would allow America to rule the world forever,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-020", "start": 2821.13, "end": 2822.79, "text": "to now the second theory of empire,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-021", "start": 2823.05, "end": 2825.71, "text": "which is pissing the entire world off.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-022", "start": 2827.87, "end": 2836.46, "text": "Why? Okay, so this is really hard to understand,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-023", "start": 2836.56, "end": 2838.36, "text": "okay? But let's use an analogy,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0038-chunk-024", "start": 2838.5, "end": 2838.893, "text": "okay?", "word_count": 1 } ], "text_sha256": "d4a0c0a7e057205cdbbcbb2cc6b2acf5daaddc44a96d016ef65f94a01ebb7ade", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0038", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=2764s", "time_label": "46:04", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0039", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "start": 2838.893, "end": 2912.94, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "So Jack is my son, okay? And I'm a billionaire. I have $10 billion. Why do I have $10 billion? It's because, one, I'm smart, okay? I'm smarter than everyone else. Two, I work really hard, okay? And three, I bribe a lot of politicians. So I have $10 billion. But I'm like 95 years old. And I know I'm going to die, okay? So I invite Jack, who's my son, to dinner. And I say to Jack, Jack, I love you, and I want what's best for you. I'm going to die very soon, and you will inherit my empire, okay? And I want you to know that you don't have to worry about anything, Jack, because I have 100 advisors who control this empire, who manage this empire. And they are great. They're experienced. They're loyal. They're strategic. Every year, Jack, they make 10 % for us, okay? So $10 billion, they make $1 billion for us every year. When I go, they're still going to manage this empire for us.", "word_count": 173, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-001", "start": 2838.893, "end": 2841.2, "text": "So Jack is my son, okay?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-002", "start": 2841.2, "end": 2842.98, "text": "And I'm a billionaire.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-003", "start": 2843.64, "end": 2844.88, "text": "I have $10 billion.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-004", "start": 2846.05, "end": 2847.11, "text": "Why do I have $10 billion?", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-005", "start": 2847.47, "end": 2850.25, "text": "It's because, one, I'm smart,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-006", "start": 2850.43, "end": 2851.61, "text": "okay? I'm smarter than everyone else.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-007", "start": 2852.53, "end": 2854.39, "text": "Two, I work really hard,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-008", "start": 2854.53, "end": 2858.09, "text": "okay? And three, I bribe a lot of politicians.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-009", "start": 2858.79, "end": 2859.67, "text": "So I have $10 billion.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-010", "start": 2860.27, "end": 2861.79, "text": "But I'm like 95 years old.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-011", "start": 2861.95, "end": 2863.35, "text": "And I know I'm going to die,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-012", "start": 2863.47, "end": 2865.99, "text": "okay? So I invite Jack,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-013", "start": 2866.09, "end": 2867.27, "text": "who's my son, to dinner.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-014", "start": 2867.41, "end": 2868.47, "text": "And I say to Jack,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-015", "start": 2869.24, "end": 2874.01, "text": "Jack, I love you, and I want what's best for you.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-016", "start": 2874.73, "end": 2875.87, "text": "I'm going to die very soon,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-017", "start": 2876.03, "end": 2877.59, "text": "and you will inherit my empire,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-018", "start": 2877.83, "end": 2885.11, "text": "okay? And I want you to know that you don't have to", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-019", "start": 2885.11, "end": 2890.05, "text": "worry about anything, Jack, because I have 100 advisors who control this", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-020", "start": 2890.05, "end": 2891.31, "text": "empire, who manage this empire.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-021", "start": 2891.77, "end": 2892.87, "text": "And they are great.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-022", "start": 2893.13, "end": 2894.15, "text": "They're experienced.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-023", "start": 2894.51, "end": 2895.23, "text": "They're loyal.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-024", "start": 2896.35, "end": 2897.15, "text": "They're strategic.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-025", "start": 2899.23, "end": 2904, "text": "Every year, Jack, they make 10 % for us,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-026", "start": 2904.08, "end": 2907.3, "text": "okay? So $10 billion, they make $1 billion for us every year.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-027", "start": 2909.64, "end": 2910.04, "text": "When", "word_count": 1 }, { "id": "seg-0039-chunk-028", "start": 2910.04, "end": 2912.94, "text": "I go, they're still going to manage this empire for us.", "word_count": 11 } ], "text_sha256": "e297c7bb853233ae445d90f65a827c32497ed8110d08b3baf9c35ff21d1af6c4", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0039", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=2838s", "time_label": "47:18", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0040", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "start": 2913.26, "end": 2981.29, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "And you know what? They're going to give you every year, Jack, $100 million to do whatever you want. You want to go buy an airplane? Do that. You want to go buy an island? Do that. You want to party with movie stars? Do that. You can do whatever you want, okay? So, Jack, as my last wish, as my dying wish, I want you, Jack, my son, who I love, to promise me that after I die, you will listen to my 100 advisors. Okay? So, Jack, do you promise me? You promise me, right? And then I die. And then what is the first thing that Jack will do? The very first thing he will do. Come on, guys. It's not hard. Your first thing you will do, okay, is fire everyone. Get out of here, okay? What's the second thing you will do? You're going to hire all your friends, Jack, okay?", "word_count": 156, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-001", "start": 2913.26, "end": 2914.46, "text": "And you know what?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-002", "start": 2915.22, "end": 2916.82, "text": "They're going to give you every year,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-003", "start": 2916.86, "end": 2920.6, "text": "Jack, $100 million to do whatever you want.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-004", "start": 2920.8, "end": 2922.02, "text": "You want to go buy an airplane?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-005", "start": 2922.3, "end": 2922.66, "text": "Do that.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-006", "start": 2922.84, "end": 2923.96, "text": "You want to go buy an island?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-007", "start": 2924.06, "end": 2924.38, "text": "Do that.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-008", "start": 2924.46, "end": 2926.52, "text": "You want to party with movie stars?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-009", "start": 2927.1, "end": 2927.74, "text": "Do that.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-010", "start": 2927.88, "end": 2928.74, "text": "You can do whatever you want,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-011", "start": 2928.9, "end": 2936.16, "text": "okay? So, Jack, as my last wish,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-012", "start": 2936.75, "end": 2939.03, "text": "as my dying wish, I want you,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-013", "start": 2939.19, "end": 2940.93, "text": "Jack, my son, who I love,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-014", "start": 2941.94, "end": 2945.77, "text": "to promise me that after I die,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-015", "start": 2946.03, "end": 2948.47, "text": "you will listen to my 100 advisors.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-016", "start": 2949.72, "end": 2952.44, "text": "Okay? So, Jack, do you promise me?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-017", "start": 2953.9, "end": 2954.98, "text": "You promise me, right?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-018", "start": 2955.64, "end": 2957.88, "text": "And then I die.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-019", "start": 2958.1, "end": 2961.36, "text": "And then what is the first thing that Jack will do?", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-020", "start": 2962.26, "end": 2963.68, "text": "The very first thing he will do.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-021", "start": 2965.73, "end": 2966.53, "text": "Come on, guys.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-022", "start": 2966.55, "end": 2966.85, "text": "It's not hard.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-023", "start": 2969.49, "end": 2971.05, "text": "Your first thing you will do,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-024", "start": 2971.13, "end": 2973.25, "text": "okay, is fire everyone.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-025", "start": 2973.93, "end": 2975.21, "text": "Get out of here, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-026", "start": 2975.57, "end": 2976.73, "text": "What's the second thing you will do?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-027", "start": 2979.75, "end": 2980.13, "text": "You're going", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-028", "start": 2980.13, "end": 2980.83, "text": "to hire all your friends,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0040-chunk-029", "start": 2980.93, "end": 2981.29, "text": "Jack, okay?", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "473969d4f0e07e3b934ebe4a5071e3de2cdcc12cb826af5116481a198f9097a8", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0040", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=2913s", "time_label": "48:33", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0041", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "start": 2981.63, "end": 3046.82, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "You're going to hire all your friends, okay? And what's the third thing you're going to do? You're going to do something really stupid, okay? You'll be like, you know what? My dad only made $10 billion. Those advisors only make 10 % a year. I'm going to invest in Bitcoin. I'm going to invest in AI. I'm going to invest in the Chinese stock market, the Chinese real estate market, and make $100 billion, okay? And then he loses all the money. You understand? All right? This happens all the time, guys, okay? Right? Ask yourself. If your dad were rich and he was about to leave you a lot of money, would you listen to professional people? No. You'd be like, no. I want to have fun, okay? So the question then is, the first fear of empire, okay, which said that for America to maintain its empire, it must demonstrate to the world humility, discipline, and restraint.", "word_count": 160, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-001", "start": 2981.63, "end": 2982.61, "text": "You're going to hire all your friends,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-002", "start": 2982.67, "end": 2985.27, "text": "okay? And what's the third thing you're going to do?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-003", "start": 2987.81, "end": 2989.29, "text": "You're going to do something really stupid,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-004", "start": 2989.39, "end": 2990.67, "text": "okay? You'll be like, you know what?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-005", "start": 2991.86, "end": 2993.84, "text": "My dad only made $10 billion.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-006", "start": 2994.54, "end": 2996.62, "text": "Those advisors only make 10 % a year.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-007", "start": 2997.14, "end": 2998.74, "text": "I'm going to invest in Bitcoin.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-008", "start": 2999.74, "end": 3001.28, "text": "I'm going to invest in AI.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-009", "start": 3002.04, "end": 3004.12, "text": "I'm going to invest in the Chinese stock market,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-010", "start": 3004.26, "end": 3005.16, "text": "the Chinese real estate market,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-011", "start": 3005.16, "end": 3007.56, "text": "and make $100 billion, okay?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-012", "start": 3008.5, "end": 3009.84, "text": "And then he loses all the money.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-013", "start": 3010, "end": 3010.58, "text": "You understand?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-014", "start": 3012.03, "end": 3012.57, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-015", "start": 3015.08, "end": 3016.58, "text": "This happens all the time,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-016", "start": 3016.64, "end": 3017.22, "text": "guys, okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-017", "start": 3018.08, "end": 3019.84, "text": "Right? Ask yourself.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-018", "start": 3020.04, "end": 3024.02, "text": "If your dad were rich and he was about to leave you", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-019", "start": 3024.02, "end": 3027.78, "text": "a lot of money, would you listen to professional people?", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-020", "start": 3027.94, "end": 3028.78, "text": "No. You'd be like, no.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-021", "start": 3029.2, "end": 3030.4, "text": "I want to have fun,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-022", "start": 3030.48, "end": 3032.34, "text": "okay? So the question then is,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-023", "start": 3033.44, "end": 3034.88, "text": "the first fear of empire,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-024", "start": 3035.27, "end": 3041.12, "text": "okay, which said that for America to maintain its empire,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-025", "start": 3041.3, "end": 3042.64, "text": "it must demonstrate", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-026", "start": 3042.64, "end": 3045.6, "text": "to the world humility, discipline,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0041-chunk-027", "start": 3046.02, "end": 3046.82, "text": "and restraint.", "word_count": 2 } ], "text_sha256": "c286642e0e01d54b0a6b7670d89ae3b40dd0c6efb3922171b75f8ced7150c24e", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0041", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=2981s", "time_label": "49:41", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0042", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "start": 3047.68, "end": 3122.63, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Why did they get rid of this and move to shock and awe, which is like, we'll do anything we want. Why? Why? Why would they do that? Because it's fun. Okay? Do you understand? What is the point of having an empire if you cannot blow things up for nobody? There's no reason. There's no point. We have the greatest military in the world. Let's just blow things up for like no reason. Okay? All right? Now, there are three fundamental problems with shock and awe. Okay? The first problem is that you become overcommitted. Do you understand? You believe that shock and awe allows you to be God. You can be anywhere at once fighting all wars. Okay? You're overcommitted. Second is you lack strategy. You lack strategic focus. Meaning that you actually don't have a plan. You don't know what you want to do with this empire. You know you just want to maintain this empire.", "word_count": 159, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-001", "start": 3047.68, "end": 3050.64, "text": "Why did they get rid of this and move to shock and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-002", "start": 3050.64, "end": 3053.58, "text": "awe, which is like, we'll do anything we want.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-003", "start": 3053.88, "end": 3060.08, "text": "Why? Why?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-004", "start": 3060.38, "end": 3061.34, "text": "Why would they do that?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-005", "start": 3065.18, "end": 3066.26, "text": "Because it's fun.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-006", "start": 3066.74, "end": 3067.56, "text": "Okay? Do you understand?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-007", "start": 3068.35, "end": 3073.25, "text": "What is the point of having an empire if you cannot blow", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-008", "start": 3073.25, "end": 3074.45, "text": "things up for nobody?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-009", "start": 3074.45, "end": 3074.75, "text": "There's no reason.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-010", "start": 3075.92, "end": 3076.56, "text": "There's no point.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-011", "start": 3077.76, "end": 3079.4, "text": "We have the greatest military in the world.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-012", "start": 3079.56, "end": 3081.22, "text": "Let's just blow things up for like no reason.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-013", "start": 3081.36, "end": 3084.19, "text": "Okay? All right?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-014", "start": 3085.33, "end": 3090.91, "text": "Now, there are three fundamental problems with shock and awe.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-015", "start": 3091.85, "end": 3098.38, "text": "Okay? The first problem is that you become overcommitted.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-016", "start": 3101.46, "end": 3102.12, "text": "Do you understand?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-017", "start": 3102.32, "end": 3104.1, "text": "You believe that shock and awe allows you to be God.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-018", "start": 3104.3, "end": 3106.64, "text": "You can be anywhere at once fighting all wars.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-019", "start": 3106.74, "end": 3108.38, "text": "Okay? You're overcommitted.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-020", "start": 3108.76, "end": 3111.94, "text": "Second is you lack strategy.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-021", "start": 3111.94, "end": 3112.5, "text": "You lack strategic focus.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-022", "start": 3115.15, "end": 3118.09, "text": "Meaning that you actually don't have a plan.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-023", "start": 3118.49, "end": 3120.59, "text": "You don't know what you want to do with this empire.", "word_count": 11 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-024", "start": 3120.93, "end": 3121.51, "text": "You know you", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0042-chunk-025", "start": 3121.51, "end": 3122.63, "text": "just want to maintain this empire.", "word_count": 6 } ], "text_sha256": "0cef39987f2258d8ecdc94a2c8e89f5814991a8b5de58f713047a316b3313601", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0042", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=3047s", "time_label": "50:47", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0043", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "start": 3122.93, "end": 3193.18, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? So you don't actually have a strategy in place. Okay? And the third thing is hubris. You don't think anyone can challenge you. You don't think you can lose a war. Okay? And so, the idea of hubris is this. Right now, America has this huge empire. And it's refusing to spend the necessary resources to protect the empire. So, for example, the U.S. Navy. Okay? In 1945, it had 7,600 ships. Today, guess what, guys? That's 475. These 475 ships must go around all around the world to protect shipping lanes. Okay? The U.S. military, in 1991, during the first Persian Gulf War, had 2 million soldiers. Today, it has 1.3 million. 3 million soldiers. Okay? So, in other words, if America ever fights a war, a major war, it's gonna have a lot of problems. The other thing is that America doesn't even have manufacturing capacity anymore.", "word_count": 154, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-001", "start": 3122.93, "end": 3125.67, "text": "Okay? So you don't actually have a strategy in place.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-002", "start": 3126.31, "end": 3130.87, "text": "Okay? And the third thing is hubris.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-003", "start": 3133.37, "end": 3135.93, "text": "You don't think anyone can challenge you.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-004", "start": 3136.01, "end": 3138.29, "text": "You don't think you can lose a war.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-005", "start": 3139.41, "end": 3143.21, "text": "Okay? And so, the idea of hubris is this.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-006", "start": 3143.77, "end": 3146.61, "text": "Right now, America has this huge empire.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-007", "start": 3147.15, "end": 3151.55, "text": "And it's refusing to spend the necessary resources to protect the empire.", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-008", "start": 3151.77, "end": 3152.85, "text": "So, for example, the U.S.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-009", "start": 3152.85, "end": 3153.37, "text": "Navy. Okay?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-010", "start": 3153.61, "end": 3157.35, "text": "In 1945, it had 7,600 ships.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-011", "start": 3157.79, "end": 3159.17, "text": "Today, guess what, guys?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-012", "start": 3159.33, "end": 3161.39, "text": "That's 475.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-013", "start": 3162.67, "end": 3166.41, "text": "These 475 ships must go around all around the world to protect", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-014", "start": 3166.41, "end": 3166.97, "text": "shipping lanes.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-015", "start": 3167.13, "end": 3170.77, "text": "Okay? The U.S.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-016", "start": 3170.81, "end": 3174.33, "text": "military, in 1991, during the first Persian Gulf War,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-017", "start": 3174.43, "end": 3176.01, "text": "had 2 million soldiers.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-018", "start": 3176.37, "end": 3178.99, "text": "Today, it has 1.3 million.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-019", "start": 3178.99, "end": 3179.65, "text": "3 million soldiers.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-020", "start": 3180.67, "end": 3183.45, "text": "Okay? So, in other words,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-021", "start": 3183.63, "end": 3185.75, "text": "if America ever fights a war,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-022", "start": 3185.87, "end": 3188.11, "text": "a major war, it's gonna have a lot of problems.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0043-chunk-023", "start": 3189.06, "end": 3193.18, "text": "The other thing is that America doesn't even have manufacturing capacity anymore.", "word_count": 12 } ], "text_sha256": "0370c4127e5e6b71431e0dabfaf8e7d4f40dbeb34401571af230be111d57ea83", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0043", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=3122s", "time_label": "52:02", "tags": [ "monologue" ] }, { "id": "seg-0044", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "start": 3193.32, "end": 3263.62, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "Okay? It's not, it doesn't have any factories anymore, which means that if it fights a war, it can't fight a war for a very long time. So, the example is that for every, for every ship that America makes, China can make 300 ships. Okay? America no longer has this manufacturing capacity that it had during World War II. So, in other words, why will the military agree to the stupid war in Iran? Because it's overcommitted, it has no strategy, and it's because it's arrogant. All right? And the military is like this because of what happened in 2003, shock and awe. Does that make sense to you guys? All right? So, next class, we will look at what the Iran war will look like. And I guarantee you, that shock and awe is not gonna work in Iran. All right? And, but I'll explain why next class. Any questions before we end for the day? Oh, so Celine asked a great question.", "word_count": 165, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-001", "start": 3193.32, "end": 3195.04, "text": "Okay? It's not, it doesn't have any factories anymore,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-002", "start": 3195.34, "end": 3197.72, "text": "which means that if it fights a war,", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-003", "start": 3197.94, "end": 3199.44, "text": "it can't fight a war for a very long time.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-004", "start": 3199.86, "end": 3202.8, "text": "So, the example is that for every,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-005", "start": 3202.84, "end": 3204.52, "text": "for every ship that America makes,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-006", "start": 3205.1, "end": 3207.54, "text": "China can make 300 ships.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-007", "start": 3209, "end": 3213.02, "text": "Okay? America no longer has this manufacturing capacity that it had during", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-008", "start": 3213.02, "end": 3214.28, "text": "World War II.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-009", "start": 3215.04, "end": 3222.74, "text": "So, in other words, why will the military agree to the stupid", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-010", "start": 3222.74, "end": 3223.3, "text": "war in Iran?", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-011", "start": 3223.68, "end": 3226.42, "text": "Because it's overcommitted, it has no strategy,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-012", "start": 3226.54, "end": 3227.9, "text": "and it's because it's arrogant.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-013", "start": 3229.14, "end": 3229.72, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-014", "start": 3229.86, "end": 3233.76, "text": "And the military is like this because of what happened in 2003,", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-015", "start": 3233.96, "end": 3234.56, "text": "shock and awe.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-016", "start": 3235.92, "end": 3236.98, "text": "Does that make sense to you guys?", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-017", "start": 3237.42, "end": 3237.92, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-018", "start": 3238, "end": 3241.02, "text": "So, next class, we will look at what the Iran war will", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-019", "start": 3241.02, "end": 3241.48, "text": "look like.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-020", "start": 3241.58, "end": 3246.22, "text": "And I guarantee you, that shock and awe is not gonna work", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-021", "start": 3246.22, "end": 3246.7, "text": "in Iran.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-022", "start": 3247.14, "end": 3247.68, "text": "All right?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-023", "start": 3248.63, "end": 3250.47, "text": "And, but I'll explain why next class.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-024", "start": 3250.59, "end": 3252.71, "text": "Any questions before we end for the day?", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-025", "start": 3261.68, "end": 3262.58, "text": "Oh, so", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0044-chunk-026", "start": 3262.58, "end": 3263.62, "text": "Celine asked a great question.", "word_count": 5 } ], "text_sha256": "fd19aa24533a2693596f0c954af88812c962094e12263ecbf3aaeb297361b1d9", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0044", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=3193s", "time_label": "53:13", "tags": [ "monologue", "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0045", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "start": 3264.49, "end": 3328.64, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "What's the difference between the people who believe in the first theory and the second theory? Okay? Okay. And the answer is this. The people who believe in the, in the first theory came from an older generation. Okay? This is a generation that fought in World War II and who fought the Cold War. So, they understand what war looks like. War is really bloody and it's terrible. And we must do our best to avoid war. Okay? The second generation, 2003, are individuals who don't know what war is. Okay? Like, if you actually look at videos from 2003, the war, it actually looks like a video game. You understand? You don't actually see what they saw in Vietnam, which was all these soldiers losing their arms and crying. Okay? I mean, the images from Vietnam were just terrible. It was hard for people to watch. But the, the, the, the, the Gulf War in 2003, it was just a video game.", "word_count": 164, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-001", "start": 3264.49, "end": 3268.86, "text": "What's the difference between the people who believe in the first theory", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-002", "start": 3268.86, "end": 3270.1, "text": "and the second theory?", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-003", "start": 3270.2, "end": 3271.1, "text": "Okay? Okay.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-004", "start": 3271.16, "end": 3272.32, "text": "And the answer is this.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-005", "start": 3272.38, "end": 3273.66, "text": "The people who believe in the,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-006", "start": 3273.68, "end": 3276.36, "text": "in the first theory came from an older generation.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-007", "start": 3276.66, "end": 3280.99, "text": "Okay? This is a generation that fought in World War II and", "word_count": 12 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-008", "start": 3280.99, "end": 3282.09, "text": "who fought the Cold War.", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-009", "start": 3282.09, "end": 3285.75, "text": "So, they understand what war looks like.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-010", "start": 3285.89, "end": 3291.17, "text": "War is really bloody and it's terrible.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-011", "start": 3291.69, "end": 3294.03, "text": "And we must do our best to avoid war.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-012", "start": 3294.25, "end": 3297.01, "text": "Okay? The second generation, 2003,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-013", "start": 3297.45, "end": 3300.89, "text": "are individuals who don't know what war is.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-014", "start": 3301.53, "end": 3305.23, "text": "Okay? Like, if you actually look at videos from 2003,", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-015", "start": 3305.49, "end": 3307.49, "text": "the war, it actually looks like a video game.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-016", "start": 3307.9, "end": 3308.6, "text": "You understand?", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-017", "start": 3309.61, "end": 3313.11, "text": "You don't actually see what they saw in Vietnam,", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-018", "start": 3313.35, "end": 3318.99, "text": "which was all these soldiers losing their arms and crying.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-019", "start": 3319.43, "end": 3322.57, "text": "Okay? I mean, the images from Vietnam were just terrible.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-020", "start": 3323.64, "end": 3325.1, "text": "It was hard for people to watch.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-021", "start": 3325.32, "end": 3326.5, "text": "But the, the, the, the,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-022", "start": 3326.5, "end": 3326.7, "text": "the Gulf", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0045-chunk-023", "start": 3326.7, "end": 3328.64, "text": "War in 2003, it was just a video game.", "word_count": 9 } ], "text_sha256": "ebb63c6147df5f808b55d4b396b547651888b9758e7a195ffa83bf90748db4d5", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0045", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=3264s", "time_label": "54:24", "tags": [ "exchange" ] }, { "id": "seg-0046", "source_ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "start": 3328.74, "end": 3367.68, "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "text": "It was just like, things being, getting blown up. Okay? You don't actually see the people dying. And again, only 20 people died, 20 soldiers died in the, in 2003. Okay? So, in other words, unfortunately, America is headed towards disaster. Okay? Because the people in charge have no experience. They don't know what war is. And they don't know what the horrors of war is. And, they've inherited a lot of money, and they want to enjoy the money. Okay? They want to have fun. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay. All right, great. So I'll see you guys next class.", "word_count": 102, "timed_chunks": [ { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-001", "start": 3328.74, "end": 3329.46, "text": "It was just like, things being,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-002", "start": 3329.52, "end": 3330.24, "text": "getting blown up.", "word_count": 3 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-003", "start": 3330.28, "end": 3331.66, "text": "Okay? You don't actually see the people dying.", "word_count": 8 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-004", "start": 3331.9, "end": 3334.02, "text": "And again, only 20 people died,", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-005", "start": 3334.2, "end": 3337.06, "text": "20 soldiers died in the,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-006", "start": 3337.72, "end": 3338.6, "text": "in 2003.", "word_count": 2 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-007", "start": 3340.15, "end": 3344.4, "text": "Okay? So, in other words,", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-008", "start": 3344.8, "end": 3348.06, "text": "unfortunately, America is headed towards disaster.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-009", "start": 3348.46, "end": 3351.75, "text": "Okay? Because the people in charge have no experience.", "word_count": 9 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-010", "start": 3352.64, "end": 3354.06, "text": "They don't know what war is.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-011", "start": 3355.4, "end": 3357.34, "text": "And they don't know what the horrors of war is.", "word_count": 10 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-012", "start": 3357.98, "end": 3359.94, "text": "And, they've inherited a lot of money,", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-013", "start": 3360.06, "end": 3363, "text": "and they want to enjoy the money.", "word_count": 7 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-014", "start": 3363.1, "end": 3364.02, "text": "Okay? They want to have fun.", "word_count": 6 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-015", "start": 3364.18, "end": 3365.36, "text": "Okay? Does that make sense?", "word_count": 5 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-016", "start": 3365.82, "end": 3366.58, "text": "Okay. All right, great.", "word_count": 4 }, { "id": "seg-0046-chunk-017", "start": 3366.74, "end": 3367.68, "text": "So I'll see you guys next class.", "word_count": 7 } ], "text_sha256": "90cd2046381270e779626af21f4eef2d2b42a54729751a290839c6b88487002c", "episode_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/", "transcript_url": "/episodes/predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o/transcript/#seg-0046", "video_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JieFC4Yww4o&t=3328s", "time_label": "55:28", "tags": [ "exchange" ] } ], "interactions": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0001" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang frames the lecture around whether the Pentagon would cooperate with a possible second Trump-term war against Iran, then says the answer depends on the legacy of the 2003 Iraq invasion.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture voice", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 1.1, "end": 77.2, "time_label": "0:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Let's start class. So, last week, we discussed the possibility that Trump will become president, and we discussed that if he does become president in a second term, there will be a very strong likelihood that the United..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He reconstructs the Pentagon's conventional war doctrine: mass forces, avoiding encirclement, and protecting supply lines, then contrasts that doctrine with Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz pushing a much smaller Iraq invasion force.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture voice", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 77.2, "end": 160.057, "time_label": "1:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "and his people, Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, and his deputy, Paul Wolfowitz, they want this war. And they go to the Pentagon and say, listen, we want this war, give us a plan. And th..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 160.057, "end": 224.26, "time_label": "2:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you need to advance, but you also need to hold territory, as well as resupply your troops and have reserves, okay? So the general rule of thumb is that if your enemy has 300,000 soldiers, you need about a million, ok..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 224.26, "end": 301.5, "time_label": "3:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Pentagon for a plan, the Pentagon went to the drawing board and said, to invade Iraq properly, we need about a million soldiers, okay? And Donald Rumsfeld, who was Secretary of Defense, and his deputy, Wolfert, said, no..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He defines shock and awe as a new theory that targets command hierarchy, substitutes air supremacy, technological omniscience, and special forces for massed troops, and promises quick, cheap, decisive war.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture voice", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 301.5, "end": 379.44, "time_label": "5:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "the way, professional soldiers, they've never really fought a war before, they're like, well, we have this theory, a new theory of war called shock and awe. Okay? And the idea of shock and awe is that all militaries are..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 379.44, "end": 450.54, "time_label": "6:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They can see everything on Earth. They can see everything on the Earth. We have technology that allows us to eavesdrop on all electronic communications. When you talk on the phone, we can hear exactly what you're saying..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He says the plan looked like fantasy to the Pentagon but appeared to work in 2003, with a three-week victory, low U.S. casualties, and thunder runs through Baghdad as a display of domination.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture voice", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 451.36, "end": 535.64, "time_label": "7:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And the Pentagon was like, you guys are insane. This is not going to work. This is a theory, guys. Whereas this idea, mass forces, avoid encirclement, protect supply lines, we've been doing this for like thousands..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 535.74, "end": 599.14, "time_label": "8:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It was accidental. This is insane. This has never happened before. Only 200 American soldiers died, at most, whereas tens of thousands of Iraqi soldiers died. Okay? And the third thing that was most impressive is..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang explains why shock and awe appeared technically powerful: cluster bombs, GPS-guided submunitions, and small special-forces teams could direct airstrikes against Iraqi targets.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture voice", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 599.14, "end": 675.72, "time_label": "9:59", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Thunder runs. Okay? So these three things show the incredible superiority of this doctrine of shock and awe. Okay? So how is America able to achieve all this? Well, I mean, the first thing is the idea of air supremacy...." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 676.24, "end": 758.58, "time_label": "11:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it was true. So what was happening was that special forces could drive around and look for military installations by themselves. Okay? We're talking like a few people. And then they could order in an airstrike. Okay..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He argues that 2003 Iraq was not a general revolution in warfare but a one-off: Saddam lacked air defenses, Iraq's desert terrain favored the doctrine, and surprise misdirected Iraqi forces.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture voice", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 676.24, "end": 758.58, "time_label": "11:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it was true. So what was happening was that special forces could drive around and look for military installations by themselves. Okay? We're talking like a few people. And then they could order in an airstrike. Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 758.58, "end": 815.79, "time_label": "12:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "He didn't have weapons to counter the enemy. So he was really focused on fighting against America's air supremacy. And the reason why is that in 1991, Saddam Hussein fought a war against America called the first Persian..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 815.79, "end": 893.13, "time_label": "13:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "you would turn my people into terrorists you would empower Iran so there's no way that America could overthrow me would want to overthrow me so let me just focus my resources on suppressing internal dissent okay so he c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 893.13, "end": 968.16, "time_label": "14:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "was going to happen so an example is that special forces were in Western Iraq blowing up missile bases because of the kind of concern was that Saddam Hussein would direct all his missiles his scuds against Israel okay s..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He says Americans misread the unique success as confirmation of the doctrine and then expanded special forces and black-ops budgets after 2003.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture voice", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 968.16, "end": 1062.811, "time_label": "16:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "expression this was Unfortunately, the Americans don't know this, okay? Right? The Americans are like, well, all this does is prove our theory to be correct, okay? So after 2003, America focused its military doctrine, i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He explains the structural problem of special forces: they are useful because they can act quickly outside ordinary hierarchy, but that independence makes them difficult for the military and government to control.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture voice", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1062.811, "end": 1134.504, "time_label": "17:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now, traditionally, militaries have been very strict hierarchies, and there are good reasons for this, okay? You have to enforce order and discipline, right? But you're also concerned about the military overflowing the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1134.504, "end": 1205.61, "time_label": "18:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They're independent sometimes of your military. They have a lot of space to maneuver and to be independent. Now, why are special forces a problem? It's because the... People who volunteer for special forces are differen..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang intensifies the special-forces profile through extreme selection examples, arguing that these soldiers are physically and psychologically unlike ordinary people and are addicted to risk and violence.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture voice", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1206.2, "end": 1274.45, "time_label": "20:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And you're like, okay, that's hard. Oh! One more thing. You're running the marathon on a mountain, okay? You understand? You have to run six marathons in five days with a backpack of bricks, and you have to do it on a m..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1275.03, "end": 1350.35, "time_label": "21:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And you will have to hold a clay disc, right? And then your comrade will shoot a gun at you. Most people are like, I'm not going to do this, okay? So, in other words, the people who are special forces, they're different..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "He reframes shock and awe as a theory of empire that lets America act everywhere without public visibility, then answers Celina's question by saying special forces grew because both volunteers and imperial demand increased.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang answers a student question attributed to Celina", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1350.83, "end": 1426.815, "time_label": "22:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So it's good for America because now what shotgun all allows America to do is be everywhere at once. And you'll never see them, okay? So for example, the example is when Gaddafi was overthrown in the 2011 Libya war, oka..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1426.815, "end": 1517.493, "time_label": "23:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So shotgun all is really a theory of empire as opposed to a theory of war, okay? So does it make sense to you guys so far? Okay, any questions so far? Yeah? Okay, so Celina asked a great question. Are there, there's mor..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He turns to Vietnam as the disaster that generated shock and awe, emphasizing mass deployment, the draft, casualties, civilian killing, public protest, and generals' sense that democracy betrayed empire.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture voice", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1517.493, "end": 1599.072, "time_label": "25:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And so a lot of the resources were shifted into special forces and that allowed more people to enter special forces, okay? Does that make sense? Okay, all right. Any more questions before I move on? All right. Now the q..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1599.072, "end": 1672.54, "time_label": "26:39", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "58,000 US soldiers died in this war. Three million, at least three million, Vietnamese died in this war. Two million of them were civilians, innocent civilians, okay? Over 300,000 US soldiers were wounded, okay? They we..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1672.72, "end": 1756.7, "time_label": "27:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So the most famous story is something called the Mai Lai Massacre where American soldiers went into a Vietnamese village and killed everyone there, okay? 300 people, 400 people, okay? And this was happening actually qui..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He introduces the Pentagon Papers as the exposure of secret escalation, deception, and elite knowledge that Vietnam was unwinnable.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture voice", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1756.82, "end": 1834.7, "time_label": "29:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now, there's a very famous incident during this war called the Pentagon Papers in 1971. In 1971, a group of American analysts, okay? These were military analysts working in the military. They secretly got together and t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang explains why Vietnam was unwinnable in his account: insurgents used tunnels, U.S. weapons fed the enemy, civilian killing hardened resistance, and leaders stayed for credibility rather than strategy.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture voice", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1835.02, "end": 1902.42, "time_label": "30:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You couldn't win this war, okay? And the reason why is that these Vietnamese peasants, they were unbeatable. Because what they were doing was they were digging tunnels underground. And then when American soldiers were c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1902.96, "end": 1968.6, "time_label": "31:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You're now arming the enemy, right? Because these peasants would pick up these ammo and use it themselves. That's the first thing. Second thing is that the U.S. military dropped more bombs on Vietnam than in World War I..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1968.6, "end": 2034.02, "time_label": "32:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "yourself, no matter how much weapons you can bring into this country, how are you going to win this war? The other thing is that these peasants were getting angry at you because obviously in this war, you're killing a l..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2034.02, "end": 2109.227, "time_label": "33:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "from Vietnam, if we admit that peasants in pajamas can beat us, Soviet Union would laugh at us. China would laugh at us. The entire world would laugh at us. We don't want to be laughed at. So that's why we're staying in..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He draws the causal bridge from Vietnam to shock and awe: the military concluded that empire and democracy conflict, so doctrine had to reduce casualties, visibility, consent, and congressional oversight.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture voice", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2109.227, "end": 2194.84, "time_label": "35:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And so the Pentagon felt betrayed by democracy. The politicians were more concerned about winning elections than about winning wars, okay? People could protest and defy the military. They refused to make the sacrifices..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2195.1, "end": 2277.86, "time_label": "36:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Shock and awe means that America no longer has to make any sacrifices. You no longer need the consent of the people to fight the war. You don't even need congressional approval to fight the war. You can now escape the s..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Sunan asks what happens if shock and awe only works in Iraq; Jiang answers that U.S. wars have mostly been in Middle Eastern deserts, but Iran's mountains will be different.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang reports and answers Sunan's question", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2195.1, "end": 2277.86, "time_label": "36:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Shock and awe means that America no longer has to make any sacrifices. You no longer need the consent of the people to fight the war. You don't even need congressional approval to fight the war. You can now escape the s..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2277.86, "end": 2362.51, "time_label": "37:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And what would happen in other words? Okay, so the thing about America for the past 20 years, it's been mainly fighting wars in the Middle East. And it turns out the entire Middle East is a desert, okay? All right, so t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Jack raises the insurgency objection; Jiang answers that shock and awe is not designed to stabilize countries but to topple or destroy them so no regional power can challenge U.S. supremacy.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang reports and answers Jack's point", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2277.86, "end": 2362.51, "time_label": "37:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And what would happen in other words? Okay, so the thing about America for the past 20 years, it's been mainly fighting wars in the Middle East. And it turns out the entire Middle East is a desert, okay? All right, so t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2362.89, "end": 2418.902, "time_label": "39:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, so, okay, that's a great point, okay? You can make the point that America for the past 20 years have lost all wars in Iraq and Afghanistan because they have not been able to control the insurgency, okay? But the p..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang argues that Iraq's destruction suggests shock and awe was designed less to replace regimes than to destroy countries and teach others not to challenge U.S. supremacy.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture voice", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2418.902, "end": 2483.833, "time_label": "40:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it comes down to what is the ultimate design and intention of the empire? Is it to replace regimes? Or is it to destroy countries? And you make the argument that shock and awe is really designed to destroy countries..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2483.833, "end": 2538.344, "time_label": "41:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The third thing is that the very first thing the American government did when they took control over Iraq is something called depopulation, okay? Which is to say that if you used to work for the old government, you're n..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He introduces the first U.S. theory of empire after 1991: limited strategic goals, coalition restraint, U.N. authority, and a rules-based order framed through humility, discipline, and responsibility.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture voice", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2538.344, "end": 2620.7, "time_label": "42:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay, but this is something we will discuss later on, okay? In another class, okay? All right, all right. Let's now move to the last topic. Which is the theory of empire. So this is not the first t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2621.17, "end": 2687.98, "time_label": "43:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Whereas in the Persian Gulf War, led by the father, right, George Herbert Walker Bush, the first and only goal was to remove Saddam Hussein from Kuwait. That's it, okay? We're not gonna go to Iraq and topple Saddam Huss..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2688.42, "end": 2762.78, "time_label": "44:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The United States had to go and make a case to the United Nations. The United Nations gave its consent to the military action, okay? So the United States made the argument that this is not a U.S. military action. It is..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He contrasts that first theory with shock and awe as unlimited goals, unilateral action, and bullying, then asks why America abandoned the better imperial strategy.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture voice", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2764.67, "end": 2838.893, "time_label": "46:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will only do so with partners. And we will only do so under the umbrella of U.N. authority, okay? So this is the first theory of empire. When you think about it, wow, great! What a wonderful world, right? Here's a qu..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He begins the billionaire son analogy: inherited empire comes with competent advisors, but the heir's first impulses are to fire them, hire friends, and misuse the inheritance.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture voice", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2838.893, "end": 2912.94, "time_label": "47:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Jack is my son, okay? And I'm a billionaire. I have $10 billion. Why do I have $10 billion? It's because, one, I'm smart, okay? I'm smarter than everyone else. Two, I work really hard, okay? And three, I bribe a lot..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2913.26, "end": 2981.29, "time_label": "48:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And you know what? They're going to give you every year, Jack, $100 million to do whatever you want. You want to go buy an airplane? Do that. You want to go buy an island? Do that. You want to party with movie stars? Do..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "Jiang completes the inheritance analogy: the heir ignores professional discipline because fun is the point of inherited power, then uses that to explain why America abandoned restraint for shock and awe.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture voice", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 2981.63, "end": 3046.82, "time_label": "49:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You're going to hire all your friends, okay? And what's the third thing you're going to do? You're going to do something really stupid, okay? You'll be like, you know what? My dad only made $10 billion. Those advisors o..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3047.68, "end": 3122.63, "time_label": "50:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Why did they get rid of this and move to shock and awe, which is like, we'll do anything we want. Why? Why? Why would they do that? Because it's fun. Okay? Do you understand? What is the point of having an empire if you..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He lists shock and awe's three problems: overcommitment, lack of strategic focus, and hubris, then connects them to naval decline, military shrinkage, and lost manufacturing capacity.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture voice", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3047.68, "end": 3122.63, "time_label": "50:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Why did they get rid of this and move to shock and awe, which is like, we'll do anything we want. Why? Why? Why would they do that? Because it's fun. Okay? Do you understand? What is the point of having an empire if you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3122.93, "end": 3193.18, "time_label": "52:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So you don't actually have a strategy in place. Okay? And the third thing is hubris. You don't think anyone can challenge you. You don't think you can lose a war. Okay? And so, the idea of hubris is this. Right no..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3193.32, "end": 3263.62, "time_label": "53:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It's not, it doesn't have any factories anymore, which means that if it fights a war, it can't fight a war for a very long time. So, the example is that for every, for every ship that America makes, China can make..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "kind": "monologue", "summary": "He closes the main lecture by returning to the opening Iran question: the military will agree because shock and awe left it overcommitted, strategically empty, and arrogant, but shock and awe will not work in Iran.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang lecture voice", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3193.32, "end": 3263.62, "time_label": "53:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It's not, it doesn't have any factories anymore, which means that if it fights a war, it can't fight a war for a very long time. So, the example is that for every, for every ship that America makes, China can make..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "kind": "exchange", "summary": "Celine asks the difference between believers in the first and second theories; Jiang answers that the older generation knew war's horror, while the 2003 generation saw war as a video game and wanted to enjoy inherited power.", "speaker_attribution": "Jiang reports and answers Celine's question", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3193.32, "end": 3263.62, "time_label": "53:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It's not, it doesn't have any factories anymore, which means that if it fights a war, it can't fight a war for a very long time. So, the example is that for every, for every ship that America makes, China can make..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3264.49, "end": 3328.64, "time_label": "54:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "What's the difference between the people who believe in the first theory and the second theory? Okay? Okay. And the answer is this. The people who believe in the, in the first theory came from an older generation. Okay?..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3328.74, "end": 3367.68, "time_label": "55:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "It was just like, things being, getting blown up. Okay? You don't actually see the people dying. And again, only 20 people died, 20 soldiers died in the, in 2003. Okay? So, in other words, unfortunately, America is head..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "speaker_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "note": "Continuous single-speaker lecture; diarized SPEAKER_00 appears to be Jiang.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 1.1, "end": 77.2, "time_label": "0:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Let's start class. So, last week, we discussed the possibility that Trump will become president, and we discussed that if he does become president in a second term, there will be a very strong likelihood that the United..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 535.74, "end": 599.14, "time_label": "8:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It was accidental. This is insane. This has never happened before. Only 200 American soldiers died, at most, whereas tens of thousands of Iraqi soldiers died. Okay? And the third thing that was most impressive is..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "note": "Continuous lecture exposition by Jiang; no separate speaker is evident in this packet.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 599.14, "end": 675.72, "time_label": "9:59", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Thunder runs. Okay? So these three things show the incredible superiority of this doctrine of shock and awe. Okay? So how is America able to achieve all this? Well, I mean, the first thing is the idea of air supremacy...." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1134.504, "end": 1205.61, "time_label": "18:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They're independent sometimes of your military. They have a lot of space to maneuver and to be independent. Now, why are special forces a problem? It's because the... People who volunteer for special forces are differen..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "note": "The student question is not separately diarized; Jiang reports Celina's question and answers it in his own voice.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang reporting Celina", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1426.815, "end": 1517.493, "time_label": "23:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So shotgun all is really a theory of empire as opposed to a theory of war, okay? So does it make sense to you guys so far? Okay, any questions so far? Yeah? Okay, so Celina asked a great question. Are there, there's mor..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "note": "Sunan's question and Jack's point are reported by Jiang inside a single diarized speaker stream.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang reporting students", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2195.1, "end": 2277.86, "time_label": "36:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Shock and awe means that America no longer has to make any sacrifices. You no longer need the consent of the people to fight the war. You don't even need congressional approval to fight the war. You can now escape the s..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2277.86, "end": 2362.51, "time_label": "37:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And what would happen in other words? Okay, so the thing about America for the past 20 years, it's been mainly fighting wars in the Middle East. And it turns out the entire Middle East is a desert, okay? All right, so t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "note": "Continuous Jiang monologue with a classroom analogy involving Jack; no separate student speech is visible in this packet.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2418.902, "end": 2483.833, "time_label": "40:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it comes down to what is the ultimate design and intention of the empire? Is it to replace regimes? Or is it to destroy countries? And you make the argument that shock and awe is really designed to destroy countries..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2913.26, "end": 2981.29, "time_label": "48:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And you know what? They're going to give you every year, Jack, $100 million to do whatever you want. You want to go buy an airplane? Do that. You want to go buy an island? Do that. You want to party with movie stars? Do..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "note": "Celine's question is reported inside Jiang's single diarized speaker stream; no direct student audio is separated.", "suggested_speaker": "Jiang reporting Celine", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3193.32, "end": 3263.62, "time_label": "53:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It's not, it doesn't have any factories anymore, which means that if it fights a war, it can't fight a war for a very long time. So, the example is that for every, for every ship that America makes, China can make..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3264.49, "end": 3328.64, "time_label": "54:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "What's the difference between the people who believe in the first theory and the second theory? Okay? Okay. And the answer is this. The people who believe in the, in the first theory came from an older generation. 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And they go to the Pentagon and say, listen, we want this war, give us a plan. And th..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 160.057, "end": 224.26, "time_label": "2:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you need to advance, but you also need to hold territory, as well as resupply your troops and have reserves, okay? So the general rule of thumb is that if your enemy has 300,000 soldiers, you need about a million, ok..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 224.26, "end": 301.5, "time_label": "3:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Pentagon for a plan, the Pentagon went to the drawing board and said, to invade Iraq properly, we need about a million soldiers, okay? 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So how is America able to achieve all this? Well, I mean, the first thing is the idea of air supremacy...." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 676.24, "end": 758.58, "time_label": "11:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it was true. So what was happening was that special forces could drive around and look for military installations by themselves. Okay? We're talking like a few people. And then they could order in an airstrike. 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And then they could order in an airstrike. Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 815.79, "end": 893.13, "time_label": "13:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "you would turn my people into terrorists you would empower Iran so there's no way that America could overthrow me would want to overthrow me so let me just focus my resources on suppressing internal dissent okay so he c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 893.13, "end": 968.16, "time_label": "14:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "was going to happen so an example is that special forces were in Western Iraq blowing up missile bases because of the kind of concern was that Saddam Hussein would direct all his missiles his scuds against Israel okay s..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He gives three reasons Iraq was unusually vulnerable: Saddam lacked air defenses, desert terrain favored air power and surveillance, and surprise made Iraqi commanders misread the main U.S. attack.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ], "temporal_scope": "Assessment of 2003 Iraq conditions in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "iraq-2003", "saddam-hussein", "air-defense", "desert-war" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 676.24, "end": 758.58, "time_label": "11:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it was true. 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And the reason why is that in 1991, Saddam Hussein fought a war against America called the first Persian..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 815.79, "end": 893.13, "time_label": "13:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "you would turn my people into terrorists you would empower Iran so there's no way that America could overthrow me would want to overthrow me so let me just focus my resources on suppressing internal dissent okay so he c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 893.13, "end": 968.16, "time_label": "14:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "was going to happen so an example is that special forces were in Western Iraq blowing up missile bases because of the kind of concern was that Saddam Hussein would direct all his missiles his scuds against Israel okay s..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says America expanded special forces after 2003 even though such forces are partly outside ordinary military supervision and therefore create control problems.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "temporal_scope": "Post-2003 U.S. military trend as described in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "special-forces", "black-ops", "military-hierarchy" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 968.16, "end": 1062.811, "time_label": "16:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "expression this was Unfortunately, the Americans don't know this, okay? Right? The Americans are like, well, all this does is prove our theory to be correct, okay? So after 2003, America focused its military doctrine, i..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1062.811, "end": 1134.504, "time_label": "17:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now, traditionally, militaries have been very strict hierarchies, and there are good reasons for this, okay? You have to enforce order and discipline, right? But you're also concerned about the military overflowing the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1134.504, "end": 1205.61, "time_label": "18:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They're independent sometimes of your military. They have a lot of space to maneuver and to be independent. Now, why are special forces a problem? It's because the... People who volunteer for special forces are differen..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang characterizes special-forces selection as designed for people with unusual tolerance for physical stress, torture, risk, and violence.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "temporal_scope": "General special-forces model inside lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "special-forces", "risk", "violence" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1206.2, "end": 1274.45, "time_label": "20:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And you're like, okay, that's hard. Oh! One more thing. You're running the marathon on a mountain, okay? You understand? You have to run six marathons in five days with a backpack of bricks, and you have to do it on a m..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1275.03, "end": 1350.35, "time_label": "21:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And you will have to hold a clay disc, right? And then your comrade will shoot a gun at you. Most people are like, I'm not going to do this, okay? So, in other words, the people who are special forces, they're different..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says shock and awe lets America operate as an empire without the guilt of visible empire, by hiding special forces in the background while they direct violence.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "temporal_scope": "Theory of empire articulated in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "empire", "shock-and-awe", "special-forces", "visibility" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1350.83, "end": 1426.815, "time_label": "22:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So it's good for America because now what shotgun all allows America to do is be everywhere at once. And you'll never see them, okay? So for example, the example is when Gaddafi was overthrown in the 2011 Libya war, oka..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1426.815, "end": 1517.493, "time_label": "23:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So shotgun all is really a theory of empire as opposed to a theory of war, okay? So does it make sense to you guys so far? Okay, any questions so far? Yeah? Okay, so Celina asked a great question. Are there, there's mor..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang answers that special forces expanded both because more people wanted to enter them and because post-Soviet America needed shadow wars against rogue regimes.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0021" ], "temporal_scope": "Post-Cold War U.S. military shift as described in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "post-cold-war", "rogue-regimes", "shadow-wars" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1426.815, "end": 1517.493, "time_label": "23:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So shotgun all is really a theory of empire as opposed to a theory of war, okay? So does it make sense to you guys so far? Okay, any questions so far? Yeah? Okay, so Celina asked a great question. Are there, there's mor..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1517.493, "end": 1599.072, "time_label": "25:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And so a lot of the resources were shifted into special forces and that allowed more people to enter special forces, okay? Does that make sense? Okay, all right. Any more questions before I move on? All right. Now the q..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang frames Vietnam as the formative trauma for the U.S. military: mass-force war created casualties, public protest, media scrutiny, and a belief among generals that democracy would not make the sacrifices empire required.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretation of Vietnam War legacy in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "vietnam-war", "democracy", "empire", "military-trauma" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1517.493, "end": 1599.072, "time_label": "25:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And so a lot of the resources were shifted into special forces and that allowed more people to enter special forces, okay? Does that make sense? Okay, all right. Any more questions before I move on? All right. Now the q..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1599.072, "end": 1672.54, "time_label": "26:39", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "58,000 US soldiers died in this war. Three million, at least three million, Vietnamese died in this war. Two million of them were civilians, innocent civilians, okay? Over 300,000 US soldiers were wounded, okay? They we..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1672.72, "end": 1756.7, "time_label": "27:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So the most famous story is something called the Mai Lai Massacre where American soldiers went into a Vietnamese village and killed everyone there, okay? 300 people, 400 people, okay? And this was happening actually qui..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the Pentagon Papers exposed secret escalation, lack of public or congressional approval, and elite knowledge that the Vietnam War could not be won.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretation of 1971 Pentagon Papers in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "pentagon-papers", "vietnam-war", "deception" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1756.82, "end": 1834.7, "time_label": "29:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now, there's a very famous incident during this war called the Pentagon Papers in 1971. In 1971, a group of American analysts, okay? These were military analysts working in the military. They secretly got together and t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Vietnam was unwinnable because insurgents could disappear into tunnels, acquire U.S. weapons and unexploded ordnance, and grow angrier as civilian casualties mounted.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretation of Vietnam War in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "vietnam-war", "insurgency", "unwinnable-war" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1835.02, "end": 1902.42, "time_label": "30:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You couldn't win this war, okay? And the reason why is that these Vietnamese peasants, they were unbeatable. Because what they were doing was they were digging tunnels underground. And then when American soldiers were c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1902.96, "end": 1968.6, "time_label": "31:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You're now arming the enemy, right? Because these peasants would pick up these ammo and use it themselves. That's the first thing. Second thing is that the U.S. military dropped more bombs on Vietnam than in World War I..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1968.6, "end": 2034.02, "time_label": "32:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "yourself, no matter how much weapons you can bring into this country, how are you going to win this war? The other thing is that these peasants were getting angry at you because obviously in this war, you're killing a l..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says U.S. leaders continued Vietnam for credibility and fear of humiliation rather than for a strategic objective.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretation of Vietnam War motives in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "credibility", "vietnam-war", "face" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1968.6, "end": 2034.02, "time_label": "32:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "yourself, no matter how much weapons you can bring into this country, how are you going to win this war? The other thing is that these peasants were getting angry at you because obviously in this war, you're killing a l..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2034.02, "end": 2109.227, "time_label": "33:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "from Vietnam, if we admit that peasants in pajamas can beat us, Soviet Union would laugh at us. China would laugh at us. The entire world would laugh at us. We don't want to be laughed at. So that's why we're staying in..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says shock and awe was a response to Vietnam because it allowed empire to escape the burden of democratic consent, casualties, visible suffering, and congressional approval.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "temporal_scope": "Theory of post-Vietnam U.S. doctrine in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "shock-and-awe", "democracy", "empire", "vietnam-war" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2109.227, "end": 2194.84, "time_label": "35:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And so the Pentagon felt betrayed by democracy. The politicians were more concerned about winning elections than about winning wars, okay? People could protest and defy the military. They refused to make the sacrifices..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2195.1, "end": 2277.86, "time_label": "36:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Shock and awe means that America no longer has to make any sacrifices. You no longer need the consent of the people to fight the war. You don't even need congressional approval to fight the war. You can now escape the s..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts that shock and awe will not work in Iran because Iran is mountainous rather than desert terrain.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction in lecture published 2024-05-22 about a future Iran war", "topic_tags": [ "iran-war", "shock-and-awe", "terrain", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2277.86, "end": 2362.51, "time_label": "37:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And what would happen in other words? Okay, so the thing about America for the past 20 years, it's been mainly fighting wars in the Middle East. And it turns out the entire Middle East is a desert, okay? All right, so t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that shock and awe is not meant to stabilize countries; it is meant to topple or destroy countries so no Middle Eastern power can challenge U.S. supremacy.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "temporal_scope": "Theory of U.S. Middle East policy in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "shock-and-awe", "middle-east", "state-destruction", "supremacy" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2362.89, "end": 2418.902, "time_label": "39:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, so, okay, that's a great point, okay? You can make the point that America for the past 20 years have lost all wars in Iraq and Afghanistan because they have not been able to control the insurgency, okay? But the p..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says evidence from Iraq's post-invasion breakdown supports the argument that shock and awe was designed to destroy countries rather than build democratic replacements.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretation of 2003 Iraq invasion in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "iraq-2003", "state-destruction", "democracy", "shock-and-awe" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2418.902, "end": 2483.833, "time_label": "40:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it comes down to what is the ultimate design and intention of the empire? Is it to replace regimes? Or is it to destroy countries? And you make the argument that shock and awe is really designed to destroy countries..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2483.833, "end": 2538.344, "time_label": "41:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The third thing is that the very first thing the American government did when they took control over Iraq is something called depopulation, okay? Which is to say that if you used to work for the old government, you're n..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang defines the first post-1991 U.S. theory of empire as limited objectives, coalition action, and U.N. authority under a rules-based order.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "temporal_scope": "Description of 1991 Gulf War order in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "rules-based-order", "gulf-war-1991", "united-nations", "empire" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2538.344, "end": 2620.7, "time_label": "42:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay, but this is something we will discuss later on, okay? In another class, okay? All right, all right. Let's now move to the last topic. Which is the theory of empire. So this is not the first t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2621.17, "end": 2687.98, "time_label": "43:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Whereas in the Persian Gulf War, led by the father, right, George Herbert Walker Bush, the first and only goal was to remove Saddam Hussein from Kuwait. That's it, okay? We're not gonna go to Iraq and topple Saddam Huss..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2688.42, "end": 2762.78, "time_label": "44:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The United States had to go and make a case to the United Nations. The United Nations gave its consent to the military action, okay? So the United States made the argument that this is not a U.S. military action. It is..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang contrasts the second theory of empire, shock and awe, as unlimited, unilateral, and rule-making by force.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "temporal_scope": "Theory contrast in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "shock-and-awe", "unilateralism", "empire" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2764.67, "end": 2838.893, "time_label": "46:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will only do so with partners. And we will only do so under the umbrella of U.N. authority, okay? So this is the first theory of empire. When you think about it, wow, great! What a wonderful world, right? Here's a qu..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The billionaire-heir analogy models post-2003 American empire as inherited power whose new managers reject experienced advisors because inherited wealth makes discipline feel unnecessary.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "temporal_scope": "Analogy inside lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "inheritance", "empire", "hubris", "analogy" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2838.893, "end": 2912.94, "time_label": "47:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Jack is my son, okay? And I'm a billionaire. I have $10 billion. Why do I have $10 billion? It's because, one, I'm smart, okay? I'm smarter than everyone else. Two, I work really hard, okay? And three, I bribe a lot..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2913.26, "end": 2981.29, "time_label": "48:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And you know what? They're going to give you every year, Jack, $100 million to do whatever you want. You want to go buy an airplane? Do that. You want to go buy an island? Do that. You want to party with movie stars? Do..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the deeper reason America abandoned humility, discipline, and restraint is that inherited empire makes destructive freedom feel fun.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "temporal_scope": "Theory of post-2003 imperial psychology in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "hubris", "empire", "inheritance", "shock-and-awe" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 2981.63, "end": 3046.82, "time_label": "49:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You're going to hire all your friends, okay? And what's the third thing you're going to do? You're going to do something really stupid, okay? You'll be like, you know what? My dad only made $10 billion. Those advisors o..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3047.68, "end": 3122.63, "time_label": "50:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Why did they get rid of this and move to shock and awe, which is like, we'll do anything we want. Why? Why? Why would they do that? Because it's fun. Okay? Do you understand? What is the point of having an empire if you..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang identifies three fundamental problems with shock and awe: overcommitment, lack of strategy, and hubris.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043" ], "temporal_scope": "Theory of shock-and-awe failure in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "shock-and-awe", "overcommitment", "strategy", "hubris" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3047.68, "end": 3122.63, "time_label": "50:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Why did they get rid of this and move to shock and awe, which is like, we'll do anything we want. Why? Why? Why would they do that? Because it's fun. Okay? Do you understand? What is the point of having an empire if you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3122.93, "end": 3193.18, "time_label": "52:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So you don't actually have a strategy in place. Okay? And the third thing is hubris. You don't think anyone can challenge you. You don't think you can lose a war. Okay? And so, the idea of hubris is this. Right no..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says America is refusing to spend the resources needed to protect its empire, pointing to fewer Navy ships, fewer soldiers than 1991, and weak manufacturing capacity.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "temporal_scope": "U.S. capacity diagnosis in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "military-capacity", "navy", "manufacturing", "empire" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3122.93, "end": 3193.18, "time_label": "52:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So you don't actually have a strategy in place. Okay? And the third thing is hubris. You don't think anyone can challenge you. You don't think you can lose a war. Okay? And so, the idea of hubris is this. Right no..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3193.32, "end": 3263.62, "time_label": "53:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It's not, it doesn't have any factories anymore, which means that if it fights a war, it can't fight a war for a very long time. So, the example is that for every, for every ship that America makes, China can make..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang concludes that the U.S. military will agree to a war in Iran because it is overcommitted, lacks strategy, and is arrogant from the shock-and-awe legacy.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction in lecture published 2024-05-22 about a future Iran war", "topic_tags": [ "iran-war", "military-doctrine", "prediction", "hubris" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3193.32, "end": 3263.62, "time_label": "53:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It's not, it doesn't have any factories anymore, which means that if it fights a war, it can't fight a war for a very long time. So, the example is that for every, for every ship that America makes, China can make..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang distinguishes the older World War II and Cold War generation from the 2003 generation by saying the older generation knew war was bloody and terrible, while the later generation experienced the Gulf War as video-game spectacle.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "temporal_scope": "Generational contrast in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "war-memory", "generation", "video-game-war", "hubris" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3264.49, "end": 3328.64, "time_label": "54:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "What's the difference between the people who believe in the first theory and the second theory? Okay? Okay. And the answer is this. The people who believe in the, in the first theory came from an older generation. Okay?..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3328.74, "end": 3367.68, "time_label": "55:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "It was just like, things being, getting blown up. Okay? You don't actually see the people dying. And again, only 20 people died, 20 soldiers died in the, in 2003. Okay? So, in other words, unfortunately, America is head..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "signature_moments": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0005" ], "moment": "Shock and awe imagines an army as a body: cut off the head and the arms and legs collapse.", "source_phrase": "if we can go and cut off the head, then the entire army falls apart", "why_it_matters": "It gives the whole doctrine a memorable anatomical model that later becomes Jiang's critique of imperial fantasy.", "tone": "metaphor", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 301.5, "end": 379.44, "time_label": "5:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "the way, professional soldiers, they've never really fought a war before, they're like, well, we have this theory, a new theory of war called shock and awe. Okay? And the idea of shock and awe is that all militaries are..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "moment": "Technological omniscience turns military surveillance into a claim to godlike power.", "source_phrase": "Omniscience means to know everything. We're God.", "why_it_matters": "This is the first form of hubris in the lecture: technology is treated not as a tool but as a permission to act like a god.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 301.5, "end": 379.44, "time_label": "5:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "the way, professional soldiers, they've never really fought a war before, they're like, well, we have this theory, a new theory of war called shock and awe. Okay? And the idea of shock and awe is that all militaries are..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 379.44, "end": 450.54, "time_label": "6:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They can see everything on Earth. They can see everything on the Earth. We have technology that allows us to eavesdrop on all electronic communications. When you talk on the phone, we can hear exactly what you're saying..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "moment": "The thunder runs are described as a battlefield backflip, domination so excessive that it becomes performance.", "source_phrase": "I'm so much stronger than this guy, I'm going to do a backflip", "why_it_matters": "The image turns military success into theatrical arrogance, foreshadowing the argument that shock and awe is empire enjoying its own power.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 535.74, "end": 599.14, "time_label": "8:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It was accidental. This is insane. This has never happened before. Only 200 American soldiers died, at most, whereas tens of thousands of Iraqi soldiers died. Okay? And the third thing that was most impressive is..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0009" ], "moment": "A single cluster bomb becomes a swarm of forty GPS-guided tank hunters.", "source_phrase": "each of these bombs can go and find a tank", "why_it_matters": "It captures the seduction of precision war: the weapon seems cheap, intelligent, and decisive enough to replace mass.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0009", "segment_id": "seg-0009", "start": 599.14, "end": 675.72, "time_label": "9:59", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Thunder runs. Okay? So these three things show the incredible superiority of this doctrine of shock and awe. Okay? So how is America able to achieve all this? Well, I mean, the first thing is the idea of air supremacy...." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ], "moment": "The miracle of 2003 is demoted from a revolution in war to a one-time accident of terrain, surprise, and Iraqi weakness.", "source_phrase": "not a revolution in warfare, but just a unique incident", "why_it_matters": "This reversal is central to the lecture: America mistook a special case for a universal doctrine.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 676.24, "end": 758.58, "time_label": "11:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it was true. So what was happening was that special forces could drive around and look for military installations by themselves. Okay? We're talking like a few people. And then they could order in an airstrike. Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 893.13, "end": 968.16, "time_label": "14:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "was going to happen so an example is that special forces were in Western Iraq blowing up missile bases because of the kind of concern was that Saddam Hussein would direct all his missiles his scuds against Israel okay s..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "moment": "Special forces are necessary because hierarchy is slow, but dangerous because they live outside the control hierarchy is supposed to preserve.", "source_phrase": "you don't want that many special forces because... they're outside the control of your military", "why_it_matters": "The same feature that makes special forces effective becomes the seed of imperial and institutional instability.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1062.811, "end": 1134.504, "time_label": "17:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now, traditionally, militaries have been very strict hierarchies, and there are good reasons for this, okay? You have to enforce order and discipline, right? But you're also concerned about the military overflowing the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1134.504, "end": 1205.61, "time_label": "18:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They're independent sometimes of your military. They have a lot of space to maneuver and to be independent. Now, why are special forces a problem? It's because the... People who volunteer for special forces are differen..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "moment": "Special-forces selection becomes a sequence of almost absurd ordeals: mountain marathons with bricks, torture, and being shot at while holding a clay disc.", "source_phrase": "six marathons in five days with a backpack of bricks", "why_it_matters": "The examples support Jiang's claim that the institution selects for an extreme psychology, not just elite skill.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1206.2, "end": 1274.45, "time_label": "20:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And you're like, okay, that's hard. Oh! One more thing. You're running the marathon on a mountain, okay? You understand? You have to run six marathons in five days with a backpack of bricks, and you have to do it on a m..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1275.03, "end": 1350.35, "time_label": "21:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And you will have to hold a clay disc, right? And then your comrade will shoot a gun at you. Most people are like, I'm not going to do this, okay? So, in other words, the people who are special forces, they're different..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "moment": "The special-forces recruit is described as someone choosing between black ops and robbing banks.", "source_phrase": "it's either I do special forces or I go rob banks", "why_it_matters": "It compresses Jiang's portrait of special-forces psychology into a memorable and unsettling fork: sanctioned violence or criminal violence.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1275.03, "end": 1350.35, "time_label": "21:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And you will have to hold a clay disc, right? And then your comrade will shoot a gun at you. Most people are like, I'm not going to do this, okay? So, in other words, the people who are special forces, they're different..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "moment": "Shock and awe becomes empire without guilt: violence happens out of sight, so citizens do not have to admit they are an empire.", "source_phrase": "an empire without the guilt of being an empire", "why_it_matters": "This is one of the lecture's central formulations, tying military doctrine to public denial and hidden coercion.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1350.83, "end": 1426.815, "time_label": "22:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So it's good for America because now what shotgun all allows America to do is be everywhere at once. And you'll never see them, okay? So for example, the example is when Gaddafi was overthrown in the 2011 Libya war, oka..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "moment": "The military feels betrayed not by battlefield defeat alone, but by a democracy unwilling to feed the empire.", "source_phrase": "the American democracy republic, refused to make the necessary sacrifices in order to maintain this empire", "why_it_matters": "This sets up shock and awe as an institutional workaround for democratic refusal.", "tone": "causal-chain", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1672.72, "end": 1756.7, "time_label": "27:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So the most famous story is something called the Mai Lai Massacre where American soldiers went into a Vietnamese village and killed everyone there, okay? 300 people, 400 people, okay? And this was happening actually qui..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0026" ], "moment": "The Vietnamese enemy can 'swim underground,' and U.S. force keeps feeding it weapons.", "source_phrase": "It was like as though they could swim underground", "why_it_matters": "The image condenses Jiang's reason Vietnam defeats conventional doctrine: the enemy is invisible, mobile, and replenished by the invader.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1835.02, "end": 1902.42, "time_label": "30:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You couldn't win this war, okay? And the reason why is that these Vietnamese peasants, they were unbeatable. Because what they were doing was they were digging tunnels underground. And then when American soldiers were c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1902.96, "end": 1968.6, "time_label": "31:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You're now arming the enemy, right? Because these peasants would pick up these ammo and use it themselves. That's the first thing. Second thing is that the U.S. military dropped more bombs on Vietnam than in World War I..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "moment": "America stays in Vietnam because it cannot bear the thought of 'peasants in pajamas' making it look weak.", "source_phrase": "if we admit that peasants in pajamas can beat us", "why_it_matters": "It turns credibility into humiliation avoidance, a major Jiang causal primitive for irrational imperial violence.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2034.02, "end": 2109.227, "time_label": "33:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "from Vietnam, if we admit that peasants in pajamas can beat us, Soviet Union would laugh at us. China would laugh at us. The entire world would laugh at us. We don't want to be laughed at. So that's why we're staying in..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "moment": "Shock and awe is empire escaping the shackles of democracy.", "source_phrase": "escape the shackles of democracy", "why_it_matters": "This is the lecture's institutional mechanism: the doctrine exists to remove war from the public's ability to object.", "tone": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2109.227, "end": 2194.84, "time_label": "35:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And so the Pentagon felt betrayed by democracy. The politicians were more concerned about winning elections than about winning wars, okay? People could protest and defy the military. They refused to make the sacrifices..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2195.1, "end": 2277.86, "time_label": "36:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Shock and awe means that America no longer has to make any sacrifices. You no longer need the consent of the people to fight the war. You don't even need congressional approval to fight the war. You can now escape the s..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "moment": "Failure to stabilize is not a bug if the real design is to destroy countries.", "source_phrase": "Shock and awe is meant to topple and destroy countries", "why_it_matters": "It flips the common critique of Iraq: instability becomes evidence of the deeper imperial design Jiang is describing.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2362.89, "end": 2418.902, "time_label": "39:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, so, okay, that's a great point, okay? You can make the point that America for the past 20 years have lost all wars in Iraq and Afghanistan because they have not been able to control the insurgency, okay? But the p..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "moment": "The Iraq War becomes a lesson to the world: do not mess with us or we will destroy you.", "source_phrase": "Don't mess with us, we'll come and destroy you", "why_it_matters": "It states the punitive theory of empire more sharply than a neutral policy summary could.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2483.833, "end": 2538.344, "time_label": "41:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The third thing is that the very first thing the American government did when they took control over Iraq is something called depopulation, okay? Which is to say that if you used to work for the old government, you're n..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "moment": "The first theory of empire says overwhelming power requires humility, discipline, and restraint.", "source_phrase": "with this power comes great responsibility", "why_it_matters": "It gives Jiang a foil: empire can rule by restraint, not only by spectacular violence.", "tone": "reversal", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2688.42, "end": 2762.78, "time_label": "44:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The United States had to go and make a case to the United Nations. The United Nations gave its consent to the military action, okay? So the United States made the argument that this is not a U.S. military action. It is..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "moment": "Shock and awe is the second theory of empire, the one that is 'pissing the entire world off.'", "source_phrase": "the second theory of empire, which is pissing the entire world off", "why_it_matters": "The blunt phrase keeps Jiang's contrast alive: the doctrine is not just strategically worse, it alienates the world it claims to order.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2764.67, "end": 2838.893, "time_label": "46:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will only do so with partners. And we will only do so under the umbrella of U.N. authority, okay? So this is the first theory of empire. When you think about it, wow, great! What a wonderful world, right? Here's a qu..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "moment": "Empire is inherited like a fortune: the son is given advisors and easy returns, then immediately wants to fire everyone.", "source_phrase": "your first thing you will do... is fire everyone", "why_it_matters": "The analogy makes imperial hubris domestic and intuitive: inheritance produces contempt for the discipline that created the inheritance.", "tone": "metaphor", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2838.893, "end": 2912.94, "time_label": "47:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Jack is my son, okay? And I'm a billionaire. I have $10 billion. Why do I have $10 billion? It's because, one, I'm smart, okay? I'm smarter than everyone else. Two, I work really hard, okay? And three, I bribe a lot..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2913.26, "end": 2981.29, "time_label": "48:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And you know what? They're going to give you every year, Jack, $100 million to do whatever you want. You want to go buy an airplane? Do that. You want to go buy an island? Do that. You want to party with movie stars? Do..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "moment": "The heir rejects advisors because the point of inherited power is fun.", "source_phrase": "No. You'd be like, no. I want to have fun", "why_it_matters": "It makes the lecture's title argument concrete: hubris is not just overconfidence but the pleasure of unconstrained inheritance.", "tone": "metaphor", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 2981.63, "end": 3046.82, "time_label": "49:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You're going to hire all your friends, okay? And what's the third thing you're going to do? You're going to do something really stupid, okay? You'll be like, you know what? My dad only made $10 billion. Those advisors o..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3047.68, "end": 3122.63, "time_label": "50:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Why did they get rid of this and move to shock and awe, which is like, we'll do anything we want. Why? Why? Why would they do that? Because it's fun. Okay? Do you understand? What is the point of having an empire if you..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "moment": "Empire asks what the point is if you cannot blow things up for no reason.", "source_phrase": "What is the point of having an empire if you cannot blow things up for nobody?", "why_it_matters": "This is the lecture's sharpest formulation of imperial hubris as pleasure in gratuitous force.", "tone": "provocation", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3047.68, "end": 3122.63, "time_label": "50:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Why did they get rid of this and move to shock and awe, which is like, we'll do anything we want. Why? Why? Why would they do that? Because it's fun. Okay? Do you understand? What is the point of having an empire if you..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043" ], "moment": "Shock and awe lets America believe it can be God: everywhere at once, fighting all wars.", "source_phrase": "shock and awe allows you to be God", "why_it_matters": "It ties the opening omniscience image to the final diagnosis of overcommitment and hubris.", "tone": "metaphor", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3047.68, "end": 3122.63, "time_label": "50:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Why did they get rid of this and move to shock and awe, which is like, we'll do anything we want. Why? Why? Why would they do that? Because it's fun. Okay? Do you understand? What is the point of having an empire if you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3122.93, "end": 3193.18, "time_label": "52:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So you don't actually have a strategy in place. Okay? And the third thing is hubris. You don't think anyone can challenge you. You don't think you can lose a war. Okay? And so, the idea of hubris is this. Right no..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "moment": "The new generation sees war as a video game because the dying bodies are kept out of view.", "source_phrase": "the Gulf War in 2003, it was just a video game", "why_it_matters": "The public image of clean war explains how the later generation loses the older fear of war's horror.", "tone": "image", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3264.49, "end": 3328.64, "time_label": "54:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "What's the difference between the people who believe in the first theory and the second theory? Okay? Okay. And the answer is this. The people who believe in the, in the first theory came from an older generation. Okay?..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3328.74, "end": 3367.68, "time_label": "55:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "It was just like, things being, getting blown up. Okay? You don't actually see the people dying. And again, only 20 people died, 20 soldiers died in the, in 2003. Okay? So, in other words, unfortunately, America is head..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "moment": "America is headed toward disaster because people who inherited the empire do not know the horrors of war and want to enjoy the money.", "source_phrase": "they've inherited a lot of money, and they want to enjoy the money", "why_it_matters": "This closes the analogy and the lecture's prediction: inherited abundance plus ignorance of war produces strategic catastrophe.", "tone": "causal-chain", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3328.74, "end": 3367.68, "time_label": "55:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "It was just like, things being, getting blown up. Okay? You don't actually see the people dying. And again, only 20 people died, 20 soldiers died in the, in 2003. Okay? So, in other words, unfortunately, America is head..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "predictions": [ { "claim": "Jiang predicts that if Trump pursues war with Iran in a second term, the U.S. military will go along, because its doctrine was remade by the perceived success of the 2003 Iraq invasion.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0001" ], "temporal_scope": "Jiang lecture published 2024-05-22, before the referenced possible second Trump term", "topic_tags": [ "iran-war", "trump", "pentagon", "iraq-2003" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 1.1, "end": 77.2, "time_label": "0:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Let's start class. So, last week, we discussed the possibility that Trump will become president, and we discussed that if he does become president in a second term, there will be a very strong likelihood that the United..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang predicts that shock and awe will not work in Iran because Iran is mountainous rather than desert terrain.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction in lecture published 2024-05-22 about a future Iran war", "topic_tags": [ "iran-war", "shock-and-awe", "terrain", "prediction" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2277.86, "end": 2362.51, "time_label": "37:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And what would happen in other words? Okay, so the thing about America for the past 20 years, it's been mainly fighting wars in the Middle East. And it turns out the entire Middle East is a desert, okay? All right, so t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang concludes that the U.S. military will agree to a war in Iran because it is overcommitted, lacks strategy, and is arrogant from the shock-and-awe legacy.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "temporal_scope": "Prediction in lecture published 2024-05-22 about a future Iran war", "topic_tags": [ "iran-war", "military-doctrine", "prediction", "hubris" ], "claim_type": "prediction", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3193.32, "end": 3263.62, "time_label": "53:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It's not, it doesn't have any factories anymore, which means that if it fights a war, it can't fight a war for a very long time. So, the example is that for every, for every ship that America makes, China can make..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "models": [ { "claim": "Jiang presents conventional invasion doctrine as requiring overwhelming mass, protection against encirclement, and secure supply lines; under this logic, Iraq would require roughly a million troops.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "temporal_scope": "General military model used inside the 2024-05-22 lecture", "topic_tags": [ "military-doctrine", "logistics", "iraq-2003" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0002", "segment_id": "seg-0002", "start": 77.2, "end": 160.057, "time_label": "1:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "and his people, Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, and his deputy, Paul Wolfowitz, they want this war. And they go to the Pentagon and say, listen, we want this war, give us a plan. And th..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0003", "segment_id": "seg-0003", "start": 160.057, "end": 224.26, "time_label": "2:40", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So you need to advance, but you also need to hold territory, as well as resupply your troops and have reserves, okay? So the general rule of thumb is that if your enemy has 300,000 soldiers, you need about a million, ok..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 224.26, "end": 301.5, "time_label": "3:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Pentagon for a plan, the Pentagon went to the drawing board and said, to invade Iraq properly, we need about a million soldiers, okay? And Donald Rumsfeld, who was Secretary of Defense, and his deputy, Wolfert, said, no..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says shock and awe lets America operate as an empire without the guilt of visible empire, by hiding special forces in the background while they direct violence.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "temporal_scope": "Theory of empire articulated in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "empire", "shock-and-awe", "special-forces", "visibility" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1350.83, "end": 1426.815, "time_label": "22:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So it's good for America because now what shotgun all allows America to do is be everywhere at once. And you'll never see them, okay? So for example, the example is when Gaddafi was overthrown in the 2011 Libya war, oka..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1426.815, "end": 1517.493, "time_label": "23:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So shotgun all is really a theory of empire as opposed to a theory of war, okay? So does it make sense to you guys so far? Okay, any questions so far? Yeah? Okay, so Celina asked a great question. Are there, there's mor..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says shock and awe was a response to Vietnam because it allowed empire to escape the burden of democratic consent, casualties, visible suffering, and congressional approval.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "temporal_scope": "Theory of post-Vietnam U.S. doctrine in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "shock-and-awe", "democracy", "empire", "vietnam-war" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2109.227, "end": 2194.84, "time_label": "35:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And so the Pentagon felt betrayed by democracy. The politicians were more concerned about winning elections than about winning wars, okay? People could protest and defy the military. They refused to make the sacrifices..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2195.1, "end": 2277.86, "time_label": "36:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Shock and awe means that America no longer has to make any sacrifices. You no longer need the consent of the people to fight the war. You don't even need congressional approval to fight the war. You can now escape the s..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that shock and awe is not meant to stabilize countries; it is meant to topple or destroy countries so no Middle Eastern power can challenge U.S. supremacy.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0032" ], "temporal_scope": "Theory of U.S. Middle East policy in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "shock-and-awe", "middle-east", "state-destruction", "supremacy" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0032", "segment_id": "seg-0032", "start": 2362.89, "end": 2418.902, "time_label": "39:22", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay, so, okay, that's a great point, okay? You can make the point that America for the past 20 years have lost all wars in Iraq and Afghanistan because they have not been able to control the insurgency, okay? But the p..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "The billionaire-heir analogy models post-2003 American empire as inherited power whose new managers reject experienced advisors because inherited wealth makes discipline feel unnecessary.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "temporal_scope": "Analogy inside lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "inheritance", "empire", "hubris", "analogy" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2838.893, "end": 2912.94, "time_label": "47:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Jack is my son, okay? And I'm a billionaire. I have $10 billion. Why do I have $10 billion? It's because, one, I'm smart, okay? I'm smarter than everyone else. Two, I work really hard, okay? And three, I bribe a lot..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2913.26, "end": 2981.29, "time_label": "48:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And you know what? They're going to give you every year, Jack, $100 million to do whatever you want. You want to go buy an airplane? Do that. You want to go buy an island? Do that. You want to party with movie stars? Do..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the deeper reason America abandoned humility, discipline, and restraint is that inherited empire makes destructive freedom feel fun.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "temporal_scope": "Theory of post-2003 imperial psychology in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "hubris", "empire", "inheritance", "shock-and-awe" ], "claim_type": "model", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0041", "segment_id": "seg-0041", "start": 2981.63, "end": 3046.82, "time_label": "49:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You're going to hire all your friends, okay? And what's the third thing you're going to do? You're going to do something really stupid, okay? You'll be like, you know what? My dad only made $10 billion. Those advisors o..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3047.68, "end": 3122.63, "time_label": "50:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Why did they get rid of this and move to shock and awe, which is like, we'll do anything we want. Why? Why? Why would they do that? Because it's fun. Okay? Do you understand? What is the point of having an empire if you..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "diagnoses": [ { "claim": "Jiang says the apparent success of the 2003 Iraq invasion made an initially unrealistic doctrine look confirmed: it was quick, relatively cheap for the United States, and decisive.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "temporal_scope": "Assessment of 2003 Iraq invasion in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "iraq-2003", "shock-and-awe", "military-learning" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0007", "segment_id": "seg-0007", "start": 451.36, "end": 535.64, "time_label": "7:31", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? And the Pentagon was like, you guys are insane. This is not going to work. This is a theory, guys. Whereas this idea, mass forces, avoid encirclement, protect supply lines, we've been doing this for like thousands..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 535.74, "end": 599.14, "time_label": "8:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It was accidental. This is insane. This has never happened before. Only 200 American soldiers died, at most, whereas tens of thousands of Iraqi soldiers died. Okay? And the third thing that was most impressive is..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang argues that Iraq 2003 should be read as a unique incident rather than proof of a general revolution in military doctrine.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ], "temporal_scope": "Assessment of the 2003 Iraq invasion in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "iraq-2003", "military-doctrine", "one-off-success" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 676.24, "end": 758.58, "time_label": "11:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it was true. So what was happening was that special forces could drive around and look for military installations by themselves. Okay? We're talking like a few people. And then they could order in an airstrike. Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 815.79, "end": 893.13, "time_label": "13:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "you would turn my people into terrorists you would empower Iran so there's no way that America could overthrow me would want to overthrow me so let me just focus my resources on suppressing internal dissent okay so he c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 893.13, "end": 968.16, "time_label": "14:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "was going to happen so an example is that special forces were in Western Iraq blowing up missile bases because of the kind of concern was that Saddam Hussein would direct all his missiles his scuds against Israel okay s..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says America expanded special forces after 2003 even though such forces are partly outside ordinary military supervision and therefore create control problems.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "temporal_scope": "Post-2003 U.S. military trend as described in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "special-forces", "black-ops", "military-hierarchy" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 968.16, "end": 1062.811, "time_label": "16:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "expression this was Unfortunately, the Americans don't know this, okay? Right? The Americans are like, well, all this does is prove our theory to be correct, okay? So after 2003, America focused its military doctrine, i..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1062.811, "end": 1134.504, "time_label": "17:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now, traditionally, militaries have been very strict hierarchies, and there are good reasons for this, okay? You have to enforce order and discipline, right? But you're also concerned about the military overflowing the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1134.504, "end": 1205.61, "time_label": "18:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They're independent sometimes of your military. They have a lot of space to maneuver and to be independent. Now, why are special forces a problem? It's because the... People who volunteer for special forces are differen..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang characterizes special-forces selection as designed for people with unusual tolerance for physical stress, torture, risk, and violence.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0018" ], "temporal_scope": "General special-forces model inside lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "special-forces", "risk", "violence" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0017", "segment_id": "seg-0017", "start": 1206.2, "end": 1274.45, "time_label": "20:06", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And you're like, okay, that's hard. Oh! One more thing. You're running the marathon on a mountain, okay? You understand? You have to run six marathons in five days with a backpack of bricks, and you have to do it on a m..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0018", "segment_id": "seg-0018", "start": 1275.03, "end": 1350.35, "time_label": "21:15", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And you will have to hold a clay disc, right? And then your comrade will shoot a gun at you. Most people are like, I'm not going to do this, okay? So, in other words, the people who are special forces, they're different..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang answers that special forces expanded both because more people wanted to enter them and because post-Soviet America needed shadow wars against rogue regimes.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0021" ], "temporal_scope": "Post-Cold War U.S. military shift as described in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "post-cold-war", "rogue-regimes", "shadow-wars" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1426.815, "end": 1517.493, "time_label": "23:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So shotgun all is really a theory of empire as opposed to a theory of war, okay? So does it make sense to you guys so far? Okay, any questions so far? Yeah? Okay, so Celina asked a great question. Are there, there's mor..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1517.493, "end": 1599.072, "time_label": "25:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And so a lot of the resources were shifted into special forces and that allowed more people to enter special forces, okay? Does that make sense? Okay, all right. Any more questions before I move on? All right. Now the q..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang frames Vietnam as the formative trauma for the U.S. military: mass-force war created casualties, public protest, media scrutiny, and a belief among generals that democracy would not make the sacrifices empire required.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0023" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretation of Vietnam War legacy in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "vietnam-war", "democracy", "empire", "military-trauma" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1517.493, "end": 1599.072, "time_label": "25:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And so a lot of the resources were shifted into special forces and that allowed more people to enter special forces, okay? Does that make sense? Okay, all right. Any more questions before I move on? All right. Now the q..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0022", "segment_id": "seg-0022", "start": 1599.072, "end": 1672.54, "time_label": "26:39", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "58,000 US soldiers died in this war. Three million, at least three million, Vietnamese died in this war. Two million of them were civilians, innocent civilians, okay? Over 300,000 US soldiers were wounded, okay? They we..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0023", "segment_id": "seg-0023", "start": 1672.72, "end": 1756.7, "time_label": "27:52", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So the most famous story is something called the Mai Lai Massacre where American soldiers went into a Vietnamese village and killed everyone there, okay? 300 people, 400 people, okay? And this was happening actually qui..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says Vietnam was unwinnable because insurgents could disappear into tunnels, acquire U.S. weapons and unexploded ordnance, and grow angrier as civilian casualties mounted.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0027" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretation of Vietnam War in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "vietnam-war", "insurgency", "unwinnable-war" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0025", "segment_id": "seg-0025", "start": 1835.02, "end": 1902.42, "time_label": "30:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You couldn't win this war, okay? And the reason why is that these Vietnamese peasants, they were unbeatable. Because what they were doing was they were digging tunnels underground. And then when American soldiers were c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0026", "segment_id": "seg-0026", "start": 1902.96, "end": 1968.6, "time_label": "31:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "You're now arming the enemy, right? Because these peasants would pick up these ammo and use it themselves. That's the first thing. Second thing is that the U.S. military dropped more bombs on Vietnam than in World War I..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1968.6, "end": 2034.02, "time_label": "32:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "yourself, no matter how much weapons you can bring into this country, how are you going to win this war? The other thing is that these peasants were getting angry at you because obviously in this war, you're killing a l..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says U.S. leaders continued Vietnam for credibility and fear of humiliation rather than for a strategic objective.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretation of Vietnam War motives in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "credibility", "vietnam-war", "face" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1968.6, "end": 2034.02, "time_label": "32:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "yourself, no matter how much weapons you can bring into this country, how are you going to win this war? The other thing is that these peasants were getting angry at you because obviously in this war, you're killing a l..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2034.02, "end": 2109.227, "time_label": "33:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "from Vietnam, if we admit that peasants in pajamas can beat us, Soviet Union would laugh at us. China would laugh at us. The entire world would laugh at us. We don't want to be laughed at. So that's why we're staying in..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says evidence from Iraq's post-invasion breakdown supports the argument that shock and awe was designed to destroy countries rather than build democratic replacements.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0034" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretation of 2003 Iraq invasion in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "iraq-2003", "state-destruction", "democracy", "shock-and-awe" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0033", "segment_id": "seg-0033", "start": 2418.902, "end": 2483.833, "time_label": "40:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it comes down to what is the ultimate design and intention of the empire? Is it to replace regimes? Or is it to destroy countries? And you make the argument that shock and awe is really designed to destroy countries..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0034", "segment_id": "seg-0034", "start": 2483.833, "end": 2538.344, "time_label": "41:23", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The third thing is that the very first thing the American government did when they took control over Iraq is something called depopulation, okay? Which is to say that if you used to work for the old government, you're n..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang identifies three fundamental problems with shock and awe: overcommitment, lack of strategy, and hubris.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043" ], "temporal_scope": "Theory of shock-and-awe failure in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "shock-and-awe", "overcommitment", "strategy", "hubris" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3047.68, "end": 3122.63, "time_label": "50:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Why did they get rid of this and move to shock and awe, which is like, we'll do anything we want. Why? Why? Why would they do that? Because it's fun. Okay? Do you understand? What is the point of having an empire if you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3122.93, "end": 3193.18, "time_label": "52:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So you don't actually have a strategy in place. Okay? And the third thing is hubris. You don't think anyone can challenge you. You don't think you can lose a war. Okay? And so, the idea of hubris is this. Right no..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says America is refusing to spend the resources needed to protect its empire, pointing to fewer Navy ships, fewer soldiers than 1991, and weak manufacturing capacity.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "temporal_scope": "U.S. capacity diagnosis in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "military-capacity", "navy", "manufacturing", "empire" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3122.93, "end": 3193.18, "time_label": "52:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So you don't actually have a strategy in place. Okay? And the third thing is hubris. You don't think anyone can challenge you. You don't think you can lose a war. Okay? And so, the idea of hubris is this. Right no..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3193.32, "end": 3263.62, "time_label": "53:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It's not, it doesn't have any factories anymore, which means that if it fights a war, it can't fight a war for a very long time. So, the example is that for every, for every ship that America makes, China can make..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang distinguishes the older World War II and Cold War generation from the 2003 generation by saying the older generation knew war was bloody and terrible, while the later generation experienced the Gulf War as video-game spectacle.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "temporal_scope": "Generational contrast in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "war-memory", "generation", "video-game-war", "hubris" ], "claim_type": "diagnosis", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3264.49, "end": 3328.64, "time_label": "54:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "What's the difference between the people who believe in the first theory and the second theory? Okay? Okay. And the answer is this. The people who believe in the, in the first theory came from an older generation. Okay?..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3328.74, "end": 3367.68, "time_label": "55:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "It was just like, things being, getting blown up. Okay? You don't actually see the people dying. And again, only 20 people died, 20 soldiers died in the, in 2003. Okay? So, in other words, unfortunately, America is head..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "other_claims": [ { "claim": "Jiang defines shock and awe as a doctrine that treats armies as hierarchies: cut off the head through air power, surveillance, and special forces, and the body collapses.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "temporal_scope": "Jiang's interpretation of the 2003 doctrine in the 2024-05-22 lecture", "topic_tags": [ "shock-and-awe", "command-and-control", "air-supremacy", "special-forces" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 301.5, "end": 379.44, "time_label": "5:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "the way, professional soldiers, they've never really fought a war before, they're like, well, we have this theory, a new theory of war called shock and awe. Okay? And the idea of shock and awe is that all militaries are..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 379.44, "end": 450.54, "time_label": "6:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They can see everything on Earth. They can see everything on the Earth. We have technology that allows us to eavesdrop on all electronic communications. 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So how is America able to achieve all this? Well, I mean, the first thing is the idea of air supremacy...." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 676.24, "end": 758.58, "time_label": "11:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it was true. So what was happening was that special forces could drive around and look for military installations by themselves. Okay? We're talking like a few people. And then they could order in an airstrike. Okay..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "He gives three reasons Iraq was unusually vulnerable: Saddam lacked air defenses, desert terrain favored air power and surveillance, and surprise made Iraqi commanders misread the main U.S. attack.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ], "temporal_scope": "Assessment of 2003 Iraq conditions in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "iraq-2003", "saddam-hussein", "air-defense", "desert-war" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 676.24, "end": 758.58, "time_label": "11:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it was true. So what was happening was that special forces could drive around and look for military installations by themselves. Okay? We're talking like a few people. And then they could order in an airstrike. Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 758.58, "end": 815.79, "time_label": "12:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "He didn't have weapons to counter the enemy. So he was really focused on fighting against America's air supremacy. And the reason why is that in 1991, Saddam Hussein fought a war against America called the first Persian..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0012", "segment_id": "seg-0012", "start": 815.79, "end": 893.13, "time_label": "13:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "you would turn my people into terrorists you would empower Iran so there's no way that America could overthrow me would want to overthrow me so let me just focus my resources on suppressing internal dissent okay so he c..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 893.13, "end": 968.16, "time_label": "14:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "was going to happen so an example is that special forces were in Western Iraq blowing up missile bases because of the kind of concern was that Saddam Hussein would direct all his missiles his scuds against Israel okay s..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang says the Pentagon Papers exposed secret escalation, lack of public or congressional approval, and elite knowledge that the Vietnam War could not be won.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "temporal_scope": "Interpretation of 1971 Pentagon Papers in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "pentagon-papers", "vietnam-war", "deception" ], "claim_type": "evidence", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1756.82, "end": 1834.7, "time_label": "29:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now, there's a very famous incident during this war called the Pentagon Papers in 1971. In 1971, a group of American analysts, okay? These were military analysts working in the military. They secretly got together and t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang defines the first post-1991 U.S. theory of empire as limited objectives, coalition action, and U.N. authority under a rules-based order.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "temporal_scope": "Description of 1991 Gulf War order in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "rules-based-order", "gulf-war-1991", "united-nations", "empire" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2538.344, "end": 2620.7, "time_label": "42:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay, but this is something we will discuss later on, okay? In another class, okay? All right, all right. Let's now move to the last topic. Which is the theory of empire. So this is not the first t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0036", "segment_id": "seg-0036", "start": 2621.17, "end": 2687.98, "time_label": "43:41", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Whereas in the Persian Gulf War, led by the father, right, George Herbert Walker Bush, the first and only goal was to remove Saddam Hussein from Kuwait. That's it, okay? We're not gonna go to Iraq and topple Saddam Huss..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2688.42, "end": 2762.78, "time_label": "44:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The United States had to go and make a case to the United Nations. The United Nations gave its consent to the military action, okay? So the United States made the argument that this is not a U.S. military action. It is..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "claim": "Jiang contrasts the second theory of empire, shock and awe, as unlimited, unilateral, and rule-making by force.", "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "temporal_scope": "Theory contrast in lecture published 2024-05-22", "topic_tags": [ "shock-and-awe", "unilateralism", "empire" ], "claim_type": "definition", "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2764.67, "end": 2838.893, "time_label": "46:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will only do so with partners. And we will only do so under the umbrella of U.N. authority, okay? So this is the first theory of empire. When you think about it, wow, great! What a wonderful world, right? Here's a qu..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "glossary_terms": [ { "term": "Black ops", "usages": [ "Special-forces activity that Jiang says can operate outside normal military supervision, making public budgets incomplete." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 968.16, "end": 1062.811, "time_label": "16:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "expression this was Unfortunately, the Americans don't know this, okay? Right? The Americans are like, well, all this does is prove our theory to be correct, okay? So after 2003, America focused its military doctrine, i..." } ] }, { "term": "Credibility", "usages": [ "The fear of losing face before rival powers, presented by Jiang as the reason U.S. leaders continued Vietnam despite knowing it was unwinnable." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0028" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0027", "segment_id": "seg-0027", "start": 1968.6, "end": 2034.02, "time_label": "32:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "yourself, no matter how much weapons you can bring into this country, how are you going to win this war? The other thing is that these peasants were getting angry at you because obviously in this war, you're killing a l..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0028", "segment_id": "seg-0028", "start": 2034.02, "end": 2109.227, "time_label": "33:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "from Vietnam, if we admit that peasants in pajamas can beat us, Soviet Union would laugh at us. China would laugh at us. The entire world would laugh at us. We don't want to be laughed at. So that's why we're staying in..." } ] }, { "term": "Empire burdened by democracy", "usages": [ "Jiang's model that democratic protest, media visibility, elections, and congressional approval constrain imperial war-making." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0029", "segment_id": "seg-0029", "start": 2109.227, "end": 2194.84, "time_label": "35:09", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And so the Pentagon felt betrayed by democracy. The politicians were more concerned about winning elections than about winning wars, okay? People could protest and defy the military. They refused to make the sacrifices..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2195.1, "end": 2277.86, "time_label": "36:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Shock and awe means that America no longer has to make any sacrifices. You no longer need the consent of the people to fight the war. You don't even need congressional approval to fight the war. You can now escape the s..." } ] }, { "term": "Empire without guilt", "usages": [ "Jiang's phrase for a hidden imperial mode where special forces maintain power without citizens seeing or owning the violence." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0019" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1350.83, "end": 1426.815, "time_label": "22:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So it's good for America because now what shotgun all allows America to do is be everywhere at once. And you'll never see them, okay? So for example, the example is when Gaddafi was overthrown in the 2011 Libya war, oka..." } ] }, { "term": "First theory of empire", "usages": [ "Jiang's name for the post-1991 model of U.S. hegemony through limited objectives, partners, U.N. authority, and rules-based restraint." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2538.344, "end": 2620.7, "time_label": "42:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay, but this is something we will discuss later on, okay? In another class, okay? All right, all right. Let's now move to the last topic. Which is the theory of empire. So this is not the first t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2688.42, "end": 2762.78, "time_label": "44:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The United States had to go and make a case to the United Nations. The United Nations gave its consent to the military action, okay? So the United States made the argument that this is not a U.S. military action. It is..." } ] }, { "term": "Imperial hubris", "usages": [ "The belief that no one can challenge America, that it can be everywhere at once, and that it can use power for fun without strategic discipline." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3047.68, "end": 3122.63, "time_label": "50:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Why did they get rid of this and move to shock and awe, which is like, we'll do anything we want. Why? Why? Why would they do that? Because it's fun. Okay? Do you understand? What is the point of having an empire if you..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3122.93, "end": 3193.18, "time_label": "52:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So you don't actually have a strategy in place. Okay? And the third thing is hubris. You don't think anyone can challenge you. You don't think you can lose a war. Okay? And so, the idea of hubris is this. Right no..." } ] }, { "term": "Inherited empire", "usages": [ "The analogy of an heir receiving a managed fortune, used to explain why a later generation rejects restraint and expertise." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0040" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0039", "segment_id": "seg-0039", "start": 2838.893, "end": 2912.94, "time_label": "47:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So Jack is my son, okay? And I'm a billionaire. I have $10 billion. Why do I have $10 billion? It's because, one, I'm smart, okay? I'm smarter than everyone else. Two, I work really hard, okay? And three, I bribe a lot..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0040", "segment_id": "seg-0040", "start": 2913.26, "end": 2981.29, "time_label": "48:33", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And you know what? They're going to give you every year, Jack, $100 million to do whatever you want. You want to go buy an airplane? Do that. You want to go buy an island? Do that. You want to party with movie stars? Do..." } ] }, { "term": "One-off war", "usages": [ "Jiang's treatment of 2003 Iraq as a unique event whose conditions should not be generalized into doctrine." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0013" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0010", "segment_id": "seg-0010", "start": 676.24, "end": 758.58, "time_label": "11:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And it was true. So what was happening was that special forces could drive around and look for military installations by themselves. Okay? We're talking like a few people. And then they could order in an airstrike. Okay..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 893.13, "end": 968.16, "time_label": "14:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "was going to happen so an example is that special forces were in Western Iraq blowing up missile bases because of the kind of concern was that Saddam Hussein would direct all his missiles his scuds against Israel okay s..." } ] }, { "term": "Overcommitment", "usages": [ "A shock-and-awe failure mode where America believes it can be anywhere at once fighting all wars." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0042", "segment_id": "seg-0042", "start": 3047.68, "end": 3122.63, "time_label": "50:47", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Why did they get rid of this and move to shock and awe, which is like, we'll do anything we want. Why? Why? Why would they do that? Because it's fun. Okay? Do you understand? What is the point of having an empire if you..." } ] }, { "term": "Pentagon Papers", "usages": [ "A classified military history of Vietnam leaked by Daniel Ellsberg, used here as evidence of deception and unwinnability." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1756.82, "end": 1834.7, "time_label": "29:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now, there's a very famous incident during this war called the Pentagon Papers in 1971. In 1971, a group of American analysts, okay? These were military analysts working in the military. They secretly got together and t..." } ] }, { "term": "Rules-based order", "usages": [ "A legitimating order Jiang says America claimed to preserve after 1991 through U.N. authority and restraint." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2688.42, "end": 2762.78, "time_label": "44:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The United States had to go and make a case to the United Nations. The United Nations gave its consent to the military action, okay? So the United States made the argument that this is not a U.S. military action. It is..." } ] }, { "term": "Second theory of empire", "usages": [ "Jiang's contrast term for shock and awe: unlimited goals, unilateral action, and rule-making by bullying." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2764.67, "end": 2838.893, "time_label": "46:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will only do so with partners. And we will only do so under the umbrella of U.N. authority, okay? So this is the first theory of empire. When you think about it, wow, great! What a wonderful world, right? Here's a qu..." } ] }, { "term": "Shadow wars", "usages": [ "Wars the public does not really see, used to topple regimes that do not listen to America." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1426.815, "end": 1517.493, "time_label": "23:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So shotgun all is really a theory of empire as opposed to a theory of war, okay? So does it make sense to you guys so far? Okay, any questions so far? Yeah? Okay, so Celina asked a great question. Are there, there's mor..." } ] }, { "term": "Shock and awe", "usages": [ "A doctrine that uses air supremacy, surveillance, and special forces to break command hierarchy and produce quick, cheap, decisive war." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 301.5, "end": 379.44, "time_label": "5:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "the way, professional soldiers, they've never really fought a war before, they're like, well, we have this theory, a new theory of war called shock and awe. Okay? And the idea of shock and awe is that all militaries are..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 379.44, "end": 450.54, "time_label": "6:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They can see everything on Earth. They can see everything on the Earth. We have technology that allows us to eavesdrop on all electronic communications. When you talk on the phone, we can hear exactly what you're saying..." } ] }, { "term": "Special forces", "usages": [ "Soldiers outside immediate control who can respond quickly to crises but also weaken hierarchical control." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0016" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0015", "segment_id": "seg-0015", "start": 1062.811, "end": 1134.504, "time_label": "17:42", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now, traditionally, militaries have been very strict hierarchies, and there are good reasons for this, okay? You have to enforce order and discipline, right? But you're also concerned about the military overflowing the..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0016", "segment_id": "seg-0016", "start": 1134.504, "end": 1205.61, "time_label": "18:54", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They're independent sometimes of your military. They have a lot of space to maneuver and to be independent. Now, why are special forces a problem? It's because the... People who volunteer for special forces are differen..." } ] }, { "term": "Technological omniscience", "usages": [ "Jiang's phrase for the belief that satellites and electronic surveillance let America know everything on the battlefield." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0006" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0005", "segment_id": "seg-0005", "start": 301.5, "end": 379.44, "time_label": "5:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "the way, professional soldiers, they've never really fought a war before, they're like, well, we have this theory, a new theory of war called shock and awe. Okay? And the idea of shock and awe is that all militaries are..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0006", "segment_id": "seg-0006", "start": 379.44, "end": 450.54, "time_label": "6:19", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "They can see everything on Earth. They can see everything on the Earth. We have technology that allows us to eavesdrop on all electronic communications. When you talk on the phone, we can hear exactly what you're saying..." } ] }, { "term": "Terrain limit", "usages": [ "The claim that shock and awe succeeds in desert contexts but faces a different problem in mountainous Iran." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2277.86, "end": 2362.51, "time_label": "37:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And what would happen in other words? Okay, so the thing about America for the past 20 years, it's been mainly fighting wars in the Middle East. And it turns out the entire Middle East is a desert, okay? All right, so t..." } ] }, { "term": "Thunder runs", "usages": [ "Armored drives through Baghdad that Jiang frames as intimidation and showmanship rather than strictly necessary operations." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0008" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0008", "segment_id": "seg-0008", "start": 535.74, "end": 599.14, "time_label": "8:55", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It was accidental. This is insane. This has never happened before. Only 200 American soldiers died, at most, whereas tens of thousands of Iraqi soldiers died. Okay? And the third thing that was most impressive is..." } ] }, { "term": "Video-game war", "usages": [ "Jiang's description of 2003 war imagery that shows explosions without visible dying bodies, creating a generation that does not know war's horror." ], "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046" ], "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3264.49, "end": 3328.64, "time_label": "54:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "What's the difference between the people who believe in the first theory and the second theory? Okay? Okay. And the answer is this. The people who believe in the, in the first theory came from an older generation. Okay?..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0046", "segment_id": "seg-0046", "start": 3328.74, "end": 3367.68, "time_label": "55:28", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "It was just like, things being, getting blown up. Okay? You don't actually see the people dying. And again, only 20 people died, 20 soldiers died in the, in 2003. Okay? So, in other words, unfortunately, America is head..." } ] } ], "chronology_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0001" ], "note": "The Trump-Iran claim is a dated forecast from the 2024-05-22 lecture context and should not be collapsed into later post-election or post-policy positions.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0001", "segment_id": "seg-0001", "start": 1.1, "end": 77.2, "time_label": "0:01", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Let's start class. So, last week, we discussed the possibility that Trump will become president, and we discussed that if he does become president in a second term, there will be a very strong likelihood that the United..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "note": "The special-forces budget and personnel comparisons are presented as 'before 2001' versus 'today' in a 2024-05-22 lecture; preserve that date when reusing the claim.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "medium", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 968.16, "end": 1062.811, "time_label": "16:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "expression this was Unfortunately, the Americans don't know this, okay? Right? The Americans are like, well, all this does is prove our theory to be correct, okay? So after 2003, America focused its military doctrine, i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0024" ], "note": "This packet moves historically from post-Soviet shadow wars back to Vietnam and the 1971 Pentagon Papers as the origin story for shock and awe.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0021", "segment_id": "seg-0021", "start": 1517.493, "end": 1599.072, "time_label": "25:17", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And so a lot of the resources were shifted into special forces and that allowed more people to enter special forces, okay? Does that make sense? Okay, all right. Any more questions before I move on? All right. Now the q..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0024", "segment_id": "seg-0024", "start": 1756.82, "end": 1834.7, "time_label": "29:16", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Now, there's a very famous incident during this war called the Pentagon Papers in 1971. In 1971, a group of American analysts, okay? These were military analysts working in the military. They secretly got together and t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "note": "The Iran terrain prediction is explicitly deferred to the next class and dated to 2024-05-22; later lectures may refine it.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2277.86, "end": 2362.51, "time_label": "37:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And what would happen in other words? Okay, so the thing about America for the past 20 years, it's been mainly fighting wars in the Middle East. And it turns out the entire Middle East is a desert, okay? All right, so t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "note": "This packet explicitly distinguishes a 1991 post-Cold War imperial theory from a later post-2003 shock-and-awe theory.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0035", "segment_id": "seg-0035", "start": 2538.344, "end": 2620.7, "time_label": "42:18", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Does that make sense? Okay, but this is something we will discuss later on, okay? In another class, okay? All right, all right. Let's now move to the last topic. Which is the theory of empire. So this is not the first t..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2764.67, "end": 2838.893, "time_label": "46:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will only do so with partners. And we will only do so under the umbrella of U.N. authority, okay? So this is the first theory of empire. When you think about it, wow, great! What a wonderful world, right? Here's a qu..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044" ], "note": "The conclusion about a future Iran war and shock and awe not working in Iran is dated to 2024-05-22 and is explicitly continued in a next class.", "possible_update_to_prior_position": false, "confidence": "high", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3193.32, "end": 3263.62, "time_label": "53:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It's not, it doesn't have any factories anymore, which means that if it fights a war, it can't fight a war for a very long time. So, the example is that for every, for every ship that America makes, China can make..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ], "uncertainty_notes": [ { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0004" ], "note": "Transcript alternates between 'Wolfowitz' and ASR-like 'Wolfert'; semantic extraction treats this as Paul Wolfowitz but preserves the original segment ref.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0004", "segment_id": "seg-0004", "start": 224.26, "end": 301.5, "time_label": "3:44", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Pentagon for a plan, the Pentagon went to the drawing board and said, to invade Iraq properly, we need about a million soldiers, okay? And Donald Rumsfeld, who was Secretary of Defense, and his deputy, Wolfert, said, no..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0014" ], "note": "Transcript contains damaged ASR around 'silicon all' and 'expression this was Unfortunately'; semantic extraction treats the intended doctrine as shock and awe but avoids relying on the damaged phrase.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0013", "segment_id": "seg-0013", "start": 893.13, "end": 968.16, "time_label": "14:53", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "was going to happen so an example is that special forces were in Western Iraq blowing up missile bases because of the kind of concern was that Saddam Hussein would direct all his missiles his scuds against Israel okay s..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0014", "segment_id": "seg-0014", "start": 968.16, "end": 1062.811, "time_label": "16:08", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "expression this was Unfortunately, the Americans don't know this, okay? Right? The Americans are like, well, all this does is prove our theory to be correct, okay? So after 2003, America focused its military doctrine, i..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0011" ], "note": "The transcript says 'so someone was saying' and 'over froze'; context indicates Jiang is describing Saddam Hussein's lessons from 1991.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0011", "segment_id": "seg-0011", "start": 758.58, "end": 815.79, "time_label": "12:38", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "He didn't have weapons to counter the enemy. So he was really focused on fighting against America's air supremacy. And the reason why is that in 1991, Saddam Hussein fought a war against America called the first Persian..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "note": "Transcript repeatedly says 'shotgun all' or 'Shaw and all'; context indicates 'shock and awe.'", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0019", "segment_id": "seg-0019", "start": 1350.83, "end": 1426.815, "time_label": "22:30", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So it's good for America because now what shotgun all allows America to do is be everywhere at once. And you'll never see them, okay? So for example, the example is when Gaddafi was overthrown in the 2011 Libya war, oka..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1426.815, "end": 1517.493, "time_label": "23:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So shotgun all is really a theory of empire as opposed to a theory of war, okay? So does it make sense to you guys so far? Okay, any questions so far? Yeah? Okay, so Celina asked a great question. Are there, there's mor..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020" ], "note": "Celina's question is reported by Jiang rather than independently diarized; interaction attribution is therefore medium confidence.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0020", "segment_id": "seg-0020", "start": 1426.815, "end": 1517.493, "time_label": "23:46", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "So shotgun all is really a theory of empire as opposed to a theory of war, okay? So does it make sense to you guys so far? Okay, any questions so far? Yeah? Okay, so Celina asked a great question. Are there, there's mor..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030" ], "note": "Transcript says 'fear of empire' where context indicates 'theory of empire.'", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2195.1, "end": 2277.86, "time_label": "36:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Shock and awe means that America no longer has to make any sacrifices. You no longer need the consent of the people to fight the war. You don't even need congressional approval to fight the war. You can now escape the s..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031" ], "note": "Sunan and Jack are mentioned by Jiang but not separately diarized; exchange classifications are medium confidence.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0030", "segment_id": "seg-0030", "start": 2195.1, "end": 2277.86, "time_label": "36:35", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Shock and awe means that America no longer has to make any sacrifices. You no longer need the consent of the people to fight the war. You don't even need congressional approval to fight the war. You can now escape the s..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0031", "segment_id": "seg-0031", "start": 2277.86, "end": 2362.51, "time_label": "37:57", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "And what would happen in other words? Okay, so the thing about America for the past 20 years, it's been mainly fighting wars in the Middle East. And it turns out the entire Middle East is a desert, okay? All right, so t..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0037" ], "note": "Transcript says 'national rules based order'; context indicates 'international rules-based order.'", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0037", "segment_id": "seg-0037", "start": 2688.42, "end": 2762.78, "time_label": "44:48", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "The United States had to go and make a case to the United Nations. The United Nations gave its consent to the military action, okay? So the United States made the argument that this is not a U.S. military action. It is..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0038" ], "note": "The phrase 'which is great, it would allow America to rule the world forever' is Jiang's characterization of the first theory's strategic appeal, not endorsement as canon.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0038", "segment_id": "seg-0038", "start": 2764.67, "end": 2838.893, "time_label": "46:04", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "We will only do so with partners. And we will only do so under the umbrella of U.N. authority, okay? So this is the first theory of empire. When you think about it, wow, great! What a wonderful world, right? Here's a qu..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043" ], "note": "Transcript says '1.3 million. 3 million soldiers'; the repeated '3 million' appears to be ASR damage, so the capacity claim is medium confidence.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0043", "segment_id": "seg-0043", "start": 3122.93, "end": 3193.18, "time_label": "52:02", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? So you don't actually have a strategy in place. Okay? And the third thing is hubris. You don't think anyone can challenge you. You don't think you can lose a war. Okay? And so, the idea of hubris is this. Right no..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] }, { "refs": [ "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045" ], "note": "Celine's question is reported by Jiang rather than independently diarized.", "refs_detail": [ { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0044", "segment_id": "seg-0044", "start": 3193.32, "end": 3263.62, "time_label": "53:13", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "Okay? It's not, it doesn't have any factories anymore, which means that if it fights a war, it can't fight a war for a very long time. So, the example is that for every, for every ship that America makes, China can make..." }, { "ref": "video:predictive-history-jiefc4yww4o@transcript:v1#seg-0045", "segment_id": "seg-0045", "start": 3264.49, "end": 3328.64, "time_label": "54:24", "speaker": "SPEAKER_00", "excerpt": "What's the difference between the people who believe in the first theory and the second theory? Okay? Okay. And the answer is this. The people who believe in the, in the first theory came from an older generation. Okay?..." } ], "lens_points": [], "lens_points_detail": [] } ] }