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His scenario begins with a U.S.
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His scenario begins with a U.S. ground invasion of Iran that fails after years of fighting, forcing American retreat to the western continent and triggering civil war in America.
Jiang suspects Putin is setting a trap in which America loses only by sending ground troops, getting bogged down, and triggering domestic crisis through sunk cost escalation.
Jiang predicts that the most likely outcome for America is descent into civil war once overextension, debt, and civil discord reach a tipping point.
"these will work out but it's an interesting framework for us to think about how geopolitics might develop over the next 10 to 20..."
"to take over in the case of the death of the Ayatollah, but he's extremely unpopular and he's not that competent. So I'm not..."
"Because there's really one scenario in which America loses this war. Really badly. If America were to send in ground troops, it would lose..."
"And what would happen very quickly is this massive blitzkrieg, shock and awe, or whatever you call it, in Iran, would get bogged down..."
"So remember, it's impossible for any nation in this world to defeat America. Just impossible. Even if the entire world were to get together..."
"And that's what's causing the nation to fall apart, okay? So the more over -committed America is, the more debt it creates, and the..."
"...letter that Abraham Lincoln wrote to a mother in the American Civil War. Okay? 1864. And this is considered one of Abraham Lincoln's most..."
"...the first major challenge to this game it's called the american civil war all right so let me explain what happened from 1861 1864..."
"...But we can also argue that if there is an American Civil War, a Second Civil War, and the institutions of authority are destroyed,..."
"...of American Empire and it would probably ignite the second American Civil War. And I think that's a good thing. I think most people..."
"...conflicts across America, which may in the end trigger an American civil war. So that's Putin and Russia. But again, we don't know exactly..."
"in 1861, when the American Civil War started, Tsar Alexander II was worried that the French and the British would intervene on behalf of..."
The episode's pressure is not that religion sometimes decorates politics.
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