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Jiang says Iran cannot defeat America or Israel face to face, so an IRGC-dominated leadership would need to provoke them, including by accelerating the nuclear program.
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Jiang says Iran cannot defeat America or Israel face to face, so an IRGC-dominated leadership would need to provoke them, including by accelerating the nuclear program.
If his IRGC theory is correct, Jiang predicts a late-June 2024 Mokhber victory, more extremist rhetoric, intensified Middle East fighting, nuclear acceleration, violent proxies, shipping disruption, and a terror campaign.
"...can do to provoke America. The first is to accelerate the nuclear program. Okay? What America and Israel have done. What America and Israel..."
"...extreme. Okay? And we should see escalation. The acceleration of the nuclear program. Proxies become much more violent. Shipping is disturbed. And you have..."
"...his western sponsors demand of him let's say iran has a nuclear program and uh they want to build nuclear nuclear power plants they..."
"...Strait of Hormuz. Iran can choose to enrich uranium for its nuclear program. All sanctions on Iran will be removed."
"...It can use Hezbollah to attack Israel. It can expand its nuclear program. It can disrupt Red Sea shipping."
"...So to prevent this, we must strike first to stop Iran's nuclear program. Okay? Third, Iranian proxies, the Houthis, Hezbollah, many groups, have been..."
A source-grounded reading of the lecture's central move: the crash was probably an accident, but if it was not, Jiang asks who had opportunity, motive, and the most to gain.
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