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Killing a leader is dangerous because it eliminates the treaty authority and often elevates a more violent successor, making escalation and no-off-ramp dynamics more likely.
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Killing a leader is dangerous because it eliminates the treaty authority and often elevates a more violent successor, making escalation and no-off-ramp dynamics more likely.
The law of proximity explains the leader killings: domestic factions provide intelligence to external enemies in order to weaken internal rivals.
Jiang qualifies that he has no direct evidence, but says game theory makes internal civil conflict the best explanation for how leaders are being located and killed.
"And you do that by negotiating with each other's leaders, okay? Because they have the authority to implement the treaty. That's the first reason...."
"Or will this lead to civil war in Iran, okay? We are seeing civil war in Israel, we're seeing civil war in America. Iran..."
"That's, again, I don't have evidence, but I think, according to game theory, that's the best explanation for how these leaders are getting killed...."
The lecture names the law of proximity: people and nations play many games at once, but the nearest game is the one that governs action.
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