Game Theory #5: The World Game

Today, we examine the question, why is it that states, countries, nations, they rise and they fall? Okay, so let's start off with an example that you know pretty well. So this is the warring states period. And at this point in history, there are many powerful states, okay? So for example, the Chu, the Zhao, the Wei, okay? And if at this point in history, and this is about 250 BCE, I asked you to figure out using game theory, which state would unite China and become the first great empire of China. Well, there are certain metrics that you would use to figure out which state would win out, okay? So obviously, you would look at population, okay? Who has the largest population, okay? So the question of mass. The second question that you would look at is maybe resources, right? And resources, it's basically just farmland. So you would look at basically which areas had the most rivers, okay?

And so you'd be like, okay, well, this area, you know, looks very strategic, as is this area, as is this area, okay? And then you would also look at maybe technology. So basically, which state has the most scientists, which state has the most advanced literature arts? And then from these metrics, then you could do some analysis and figure out that maybe Chu would come conquer all of China at some point, okay? But at no point, using any metrics, would you assume that Qing would be the first country that would come conquer China? And there are certain reasons why. First of all, it's in mountains, so it's pretty poor. Second of all, it's pretty far away from the rivers and trade routes. And third of all, it's pretty isolated, okay? So you cannot possibly imagine that the Qing Dynasty would conquer all of China. But in fact, it is the Qing that would come and conquer all of China.

And not only that, but then you can imagine that they would actually come conquer all of that but if you look at most of human history this pattern repeats itself if you look at a region the strongest nation does not come out on top it's usually the weakest most marginalized area that will eventually come and conquer the entire territory and create an empire okay so clearly the way that we understand history it's problematic it's wrong so what i want to what i want to do is propose to you a new way to understand how empires come into being okay and this was actually first proposed by a muslim scholar historian named ibn kudan okay and he proposed the idea of abasaya and all this word means it's basically cohesion or group solidarity his theory is that yes the people in the margins they're poorer but because they're poorer they're more

unified they are more they focus more on solidarity on working together whereas in the rich areas they become too individualistic they become too decadent too corrupt and ultimately that's why it's always these tribes from the east to the west the south to the south to the north to the east and from those people this margins that actually conquer the wealthy civilized areas okay and this is a pattern that repeats itself throughout human history all the time so it's almost like an iron law of history so what I want to do is show you that actually three metrics I can use to measure how dynamic a society is and how likely it is to triumph in the end okay these three metrics are energy openness and cohesion okay cohesion it's just follows the idea of a by sign out which is just to say how likely is it that these people are willing to work together

they see themselves as a team are they willing to sacrifice themselves for each other are they a family okay so that's the idea of cohesion openness is a very important concept and openness just means how willing are you willing to adapt how willing are you with how much are you willing to accept your limitations and be resilient okay so you can think of openness as humility as resilience energy just means that you're willing to work hard you're focused you have a clear goal and you're motivated to achieve this goal okay so these three metrics tell us how dynamic society is going to be and using these three metrics we can now better understand why that the Qing Dynasty was able to conquer all of China okay so the idea is that if you're rich okay you're rich okay what happens often is that you have low energy and what this means is that the elite

don't want to work anymore they rather just exploit the other people okay the people and because the people are being enslaved they're too much in debt they have low energy as well for them it's not really about building a great nation it's not really about doing a great job it's just about getting by okay so and then the idea of openness is that the elite become extremely corrupt they become very insolent they become very arrogant and so they refuse to admit that they're wrong and as a result society becomes stagnant it doesn't really improve and the idea of cohesion is that because of self -inapproval because of corruption people are much more individualized people are much more atomized okay and this allows for a new group to come in and conquer everyone okay does it make sense guys all right so um I'm going to use sorry I'm going to use actually um another example

okay an example is the Greek city states it's really the height of human civilization they gave us homer plato for cities uh sophocles okay just basically the basis for all of western civilization now what's interesting is that for most of the of the history the greek city states and these are basically like this salt small cities okay there are thousands of them and on average about a thousand people each there's some big city states like athens but even athens is not that big so at its height athens had about 50 000 people okay so these city states like athens thebes um sparta okay these are the major ones and there are others who are korean argos they're always in competition with each other very much like the chinese warring states as well and again if we look at the year 500 bce you would think that maybe athens or sparta would emerge as the grand

unifier of the greek city states and in fact what happened was that athens did become an empire but then the other the other greek city states start to attack athens and athens decline over time okay and the advantage that athens had over everyone else was just tremendous first of all athens had the greatest navy okay as you can see uh the aegean is primarily about who controls the seas so age all the trade routes in the um aegean therefore it's the wealthiest city state at the greatest population at the most innovation it has the most strategic location it has most wealth so you just assume that athens would come to conquer all the greedy states but in fact it was the macedonians okay who came in and conquered all of the city states and at this time in history you couldn't possibly imagine that because the macedonians were poor they were isolated they were not

all cultured they were uncivilized okay but again they had energy openness and cohesion and that allowed them to conquer the city states what's mostly what's amazing is that even after this area was unified okay the macedonians would then do the impossible and go over and conquer the great persian empire the first great empire in human history it was huge it was egypt anatolia mesopotamia the zagros mountains persia it was everywhere and in a very quick amount of time the macedonians under excellent great they sailed across the aegean landed a small fort and then very quickly in about 10 years time conquered the entire persian empire and at this point in history you would think that the persian empire sorry you would think that the new national empire would be invincible but then the persian empire was completely destroyed by the macedonians and so what happened a few decades later is the rise of the romans

who are the romans well at this time in history we don't know who they are okay um uh rome is probably here somewhere okay but as you can see the entire italian peninsula is being colonized by the greeks and then the romans who are you know these poor backward tribal people eventually over time they will conquer the entire and then go and conquer the greek um mainland and then it goes go south to conquer uh carthage as well and they will create the roman empire okay so this is a pattern that repeats itself throughout human history the empire becomes corrupt lazy arrogant this and this gives opportunity for a troubled people whether it's a macedonians whether it's a ching whether it's a roman or a greek they will come and conquer all of them okay but another question then is okay if that's true um and so let's look at more examples okay of this

let's look at the aztecs and the aztecs is even a more stark example so this is a this is about the 16th century 15th century okay as you can see um the mexican peninsula it's it is divided into warring city states okay very similar situation to the greek city states and the chinese city states then what's happening is the aztecs we are going to come in from the north okay and the aztecs are um a poor tribe that's starving okay so they're basically from north america they come in because they're looking for food and they're warrior people so they're hired by other city eventually they become too powerful so they become isolated onto a marsh okay and this marsh it's poor and everyone just put them just assumed that they would starve to death in this marsh what's amazing is that as a people they became very creative and they turn this marsh into farmland

and over time they will slowly kind of conquer everyone okay and they established the ethnic empire which rules over millions and millions and then what happens which one of the greatest mysteries in human history is you have another group of people called conquistadors from spain and there's only about 500 of them okay arriving about the year 1915 -19 they come in and in like a very short amount of time they conquer the entire ethnic empire and spain comes to rule basically all of south and latin america okay so even though yes we have a lot of conquistadors from spain and spain and spain has a lot of conquistadors from spain and spain and spain has a lot of conquistadors from spain and spain and spain will conquer the other groups it still doesn't explain to us how this happened how this guy uh hernandes with 500 conquistadors was able to come in and conquer a

land uh of millions and millions okay now there are historical explanations including of course disease uh people from spain had diseases and the aztecs were not did not the immune system to counter uh these these diseases another explanation is um the aztecs believed that these conquisters were gods and that's why they surrendered very quickly another explanation is that the conquisters had allies local allies that were pissed off at the aztecs but again these explanations they sound okay they sound like they were but they don't actually give us the full picture what really happened and in game theory what we're really trying to figure out is what happened exactly okay it's a game how are the players um playing the game what are their motivations what are their incentives okay doesn't make sense okay that's what we're trying to figure out what actually happened in this instance uh i want to look at one more example

before we look into the third game in game theory okay this is one of the early civilizations in human history in fact um it's considered the first great civilization of human history it is the sumerians and what happened was that um if you look at a world map okay this is a world map right mesopotamia is the center of the world because you're going to access the rest of the world you have to go through mesopotamia and if you look at mesopotamia the center of mesopotamia is a place called auric okay sorry auric auric okay auric which is here okay as you can see eric is the meeting place of the euphrates and the tigris and if you look at this the urk uh allows you to access uh the persian gulf which gives you access to india okay what we call the ivc the indian valley civilization and then um and then you allow

and then traders are able to take the goods across to egypt okay and then you're able to go north to anatolia so why did europe become the first great world city because it was the center of all global trade so different people came together into the city in order to establish a trading post okay and over time it grew it grew and grew because it was very wealthy okay and over time um it's up colonies elsewhere okay so it's up colonies in other places and then eventually these different city states came into conflict with with with each other which is the same process of what happened with the chinese warring states as well as the greek city states and you would assume that one of these city states would conquer the rest but in fact again it was these tribal mercenaries uh from an isolated region called the acadians the acadians who would come and

conquer everyone else okay the acadians okay after after they built the first empire okay then what happened is that other people come over and conquered them as well and then you have people from the zagos mountains the persians basically come in and unify the entire area and create the persian empire all right so this is a pattern that emerges throughout human history it's a pretty consistent pattern okay we have theories as to why this is happening yes we do know that groups that are energetic open and cohesive are will triumph over other groups but the idea of game theory is to figure out exactly what happened okay so let's go over exactly what happened and i'll show you that's what's happening is that as nations rise and fall the games they play changes it doesn't make sense the game changes and therefore their motivations their incentives their strategies change over time all right okay so

um are we clear about the history here all right okay so in the beginning okay game theory game okay rise okay in the beginning you as a people need to come together and build a land in which you can all prosper or at least have food to eat okay therefore the game is cooperation and the mechanism cooperation actually will allow you to create a dynamic religion so in this first game okay what you're trying to do is you're trying to create a dynamic religion that motivates people to be energetic to give them reason to work really hard okay and the people who are best able to articulate this religion become the elite okay and this includes poets and priests all right poets and priests and at this point in history it's basically a startup okay everyone's enthusiastic they're very enthusiastic everyone's working hard, everyone feels as though they're making a positive contribution to the world.

But over time, what happens is that the elite, okay, become hereditary. The game becomes how do I, the elite, pass on my privileges to my children, okay? And the way they do that is by changing the religion, okay? The religion now becomes almost like a bureaucracy. So in the first game, the religion is about energy, it's about creativity, it's about working together, okay? But in the second iteration, the religion becomes like a bureaucracy, which is like you must follow the rules of the game, okay? The rules of the game are set, hierarchy, and you must obey this hierarchy, okay? Now then what happens is a process called elite overproduction, okay? The idea of elite overproduction is that, yes, these privileges are being passed on to the children, but now over time, there are too many children. And so what happens is that society breaks up into different factions, okay? And usually what happens is that these factions are divided according to the princes.

Okay? So if there are four princes, okay, who are about to inherit the throne, there are four different factions that support them. That doesn't mean the prince is the leader of the faction, it just means that the prince is the symbol of the faction, okay? All right? And at this time in history, the way that they reduce the conflict is the losing factions, what they do is they move away, okay? They're exiled, okay? And then they have to set up a new colony. And this is a process that continues where the losers of the game are forced into exile until there's no more place to colonize, okay? And now you have the warring states period, okay? The warring states period. And in fact, what's interesting is that the warring states period is a time of maximum creativity for a civilization. Why? Because you see the idea of open, co -ordinated, and open -minded civilization.

Why? Because you see the idea of open, co -ordinated, and open -minded civilization. Why? Because you see the idea of open, co -ordinated, and open -minded civilization. Why? Because you see the idea of open, co -ordinated, and open -minded civilization. Why? Because you see the idea of open, co -ordinated civilization. Why? Because you see the idea of open, co -ordinated civilization. Why? Because you see the idea of open, co -ordinated civilization. Why? Because you see the idea of open, co -ordinated civilization. Why? Because you see the idea of open, co -ordinated civilization. Why? Because you see the idea of open, co -ordinated civilization. Why? Because you see the idea of open, co -ordinated civilization. Why? Because you see the idea idea of open club competition which again marks the height of the civilization so guess what guys china's been around for 5 000 years but most of the

innovations happen when it happened during the warring states period there's 100 years when we had kong's confucius monsa laozi it's basically everyone okay all right and and if you just look at um other civilizations it's the same for other civilizations as well where if you look at the greeks um during the classical period they basically created everything that becomes the foundation for western civilization okay does that make sense all right now what's interesting is what happens next eventually what happens is these city states figure out that you know what yes the game is we compete against each other but we can also choose to work together okay how do you work together by intermarriage okay intermarriage and the idea of intermarriage creates the idea of equilibrium and at this point in history warfare becomes organized warfare okay so remember before warfare was about innovation but now when these elites from different city states when they

intermarry with each other okay they have a new equilibrium so they are above the above the state does it make sense guys all right so now when they fight is that really about fighting each other it's about reducing their population to maintain control okay it's a way to resolve the elite overproduction issue we have too many people striving for too many status positions now when you do that it's for population control okay so warfare becomes a mechanism of population control all right so even though these city states are still in control all right so for in theory, competing against each other, they essentially now have reached an equilibrium. An equilibrium, another word for equilibrium is basically the day of empire, okay? All right? So now, the game changes. Before, during the war of states period, it was a game to see which state would be the best, the most innovative. And that's why you invite people who could contribute the most to your city -state, okay?

That's why you were meritocracy. You only promoted the best and the brightest. Once you reach an equilibrium, you don't have to do that, okay? All you need to do is just maintain the status quo. And so what happens is you create this rigid hierarchy, and what matters is who reaches the top of this hierarchy. And as a result, you create court politics, right? Court politics, or factional struggle, factions, okay? Doesn't make sense, guys, all right? So if you look at any court politics, the faction that triumphs is the one that's able to solve three problems, okay? Three problems. These three problems are secrecy, trust, and coronation. Remember, in theory, everyone has to obey the bureaucracy, right? But if you just play by the rules of the game, you're gonna lose. So what you wanna do is you wanna cheat in the game. But if you wanna cheat in the game, you have to do so secretly, okay?

You have to do it secretly. But if you do it so secretly, that creates a problem of how do you trust each other? And if you're doing it all in secret, the problem is how do you coordinate? How do you move together, right? Because you can't have meetings where you take notes, because if you're discovered, you'll all be executed by the other factions, okay? So historically, the way that we've been doing this, the way we've resolved this issue is through the idea of secret societies. So let's figure out how secret societies work. And this is true for China, this is true for the Greeks, this is true for the Aztecs, this is true for everyone, okay? But there's certain aspects of secret societies. The first is the idea of secrecy. How do you do that? Well, you do that through the idea of a hierarchy.

Hierarchy. Complementarization. And so there are different, so within secret societies, there's a hierarchy as well, where only the people at the very top know what's going on. And if you want to join, you're initiated, but you have to put it at the bottom, okay? And slowly, you climb the ladder, okay? And this is to maintain secrecy. Trust. How do you get people to trust each other? Well, you get people to trust each other through the idea of transgression. So if we cheat un -attached together, we are much more likely to trust each other. Does that make sense? Because if you're caught, you all get punished, okay? So by bringing the law together, we can trust each other, okay? And the most basic type of transgression is the idea of ritual sacrifice. And the idea of ritual sacrifice is you basically decide to go kill someone together, okay? You capture that person, then for some ritual, you then kill that person, okay?

Does that make sense? And then to solve the problem of coordination, you have the idea of eschatology. Eschatology is just mythology, all right? Like, why do you guys, do we have to do this? Why are you doing what you're doing, okay? And the answer often is, because we're trying to serve a higher god that wants to conquer the world, and we are her servants in this quest to conquer the world and end the world, to make it a paradise, okay? So different suicides have different eschatologies, but the system is the same, okay? Doesn't make sense, okay? And what happens is, and this is really important, guys, every faction has a formula. They all come from their own secret society. And now the game Empire becomes one of a struggle between different secret societies. Doesn't make sense. Meaning what? Meaning you don't care what happens to the Empire.

You don't care about the enemies of the Empire. All you care about that you, your team, emerges on top of the game, okay? And so what does that mean? It means that you become, sorry, insular, all right, okay? You become insular. You also become corrupt, okay? Because you need resources to play this game, so what you do is you steal from the people, okay? It's all about trying to steal as much as you can in order to feed your faction. You become insular, you become corrupt, okay? And then divided, okay? Do you understand? This is what happens because of different factions within the Empire. Or the equilibrium. They become insular, they become corrupt, and they become divided, okay? Which is why they ultimately lose to these struggle factions because the opposite of insular, of course, is open. The opposite of corrupt is energetic. And the opposite of divided is, of course, cohesive. Cohesion, okay?

Now we understand why ultimately the Borderlands, the tribes in the Borderlands, are able to conquer the Empire, or the equilibrium, okay? Does that make sense, guys? All right. But there's actually more to this, okay? And so what happens is that you have these different factions, okay? Different societies fighting against each other. And again, from their perspective, all they care about is winning against the other factions. So what do they do? What they do is, they, you know, they invite other foreigners to come help them. Hey, do you understand? Okay? So, these are what we call mercenaries, all right? And these mercenaries come into them, and their leadership is absorbed into the six societies through eschatology, through transgression, through hierarchy, okay? All right? So, this is what happens. These mercenaries actually invited in, okay? And hit... But there's always contact, okay? Contact through trade, banditry, mercenary, okay? Does that make sense? Because these people in the regions, they're so poor, they'll do anything to survive.

So they'll trade with you, but they'll also steal from you, and they'll also come and fight for you, okay? What's important is that through trade, they're becoming wealthier. Through banditry, they're becoming wealthier as well. And by working with your mercenaries, they are learning your best technology, your best fighting skills, your best weapons, okay? Right? And then, what happens is that the mercenaries eventually take over, okay? At first they merge, but then the mercenaries just kill everyone and then take over. And that's what happens. That's why the Qing were able to conquer the warring states. Okay, they don't teach you this in history class, but according to game theory, what happened was that different factions, different factions, of these different states actually invited the Qing to help them in their political struggle. And then the Qing just basically conquered one by one by one. Does that make sense?

Same thing happened with the Macedonians, right? The Macedonians came in and helped one city -state, then they conquered one city -state and moved on to the next, okay? But it was always a certain part of that city -state, a certain faction of that city -state, which invited the Macedonians in the first place, okay? Does that make sense? Okay, and this is a pattern that repeats itself throughout, okay? Okay, and this is a pattern that repeats itself throughout, okay? Okay, and this is a pattern that repeats itself throughout, human history, okay? So you wanna know what's gonna happen today, what's gonna happen tomorrow, just figure out which areas of the world are the most energetic, most open, and most cohesive. And then figure out which empires are the most corrupt, most insular, and the most divided, okay? And then you'll figure out who will conquer who, all right? Does that make sense, guys? All right, so I'm gonna give you two more examples to better illustrate how this works.

All right. So when I was in high school in Canada, we played a game called the World Game. And in this game, it's very simple. Okay, you're put into a team of maybe four or five players, okay, and then each team is assigned a country, like maybe USA, Britain, India, Pakistan, Japan. And then each team is given an envelope, okay? And then within this envelope, you're given certain resources. Okay, so basically, you know, paper, scissors, ruler, okay? And then there's an organization called the World Bank. And what you're trying to do is you're trying to become the wealthiest country in the world. And when you do that is you take your resources and you turn it into commodities that the World Bank buys from you, okay? So maybe like triangles and circles and squares, okay? But to create these commodities, you need to have, okay, to create these commodities, you need resources, right?

You need scissors, you need rulers, you need paper, you need glue, okay? But different countries will have different resources. So the United States has everything, okay? And Pakistan is interesting because Pakistan usually gets nothing, okay? There are no resources. But you're allowed to trade with each other, right? Okay, you're allowed to trade with each other, okay? So even though you have nothing, you can go to the United States and beg and say, oh, oh, could I please borrow your ruler for today, okay? Then you go to Britain and say, hey, can I borrow your paper for today, okay? Or hey, I'll come work for you for free, right? You can trade. And so you play this for one day, and it's really interesting what happens, okay? Usually what happens, I'm not saying all the time, but I've seen this happen a lot. At

the end of the day, you look at who are the wealthiest countries in the world, what happens is, well, the United States becomes number one, okay? Why? Because the United States just has everything in the world. It is the wealthiest country in the world. It has just too much resources, okay? But number two is interesting. You would think it would be Japan and Britain, but it's actually Pakistan, okay? The country that starts out with nothing at all. Why? Because you're forced to be the most energetic, the most open, and the most cohesive. Team members have to go and beg to work for free. Okay? Other team members go and lie and cheat and steal, okay? They're forced to be resourceful and creative. Okay? The world game. And that's how the world works, guys. Just because you have the most resources, just because you have the most people, does not mean you'll win the game at the end.

What matters is how energetic your people are, how open they are, how resourceful they are. That's what matters, okay? And often, they are open, energetic, and cohesive because they're poor. All right? It's that simple. Pakistan has nothing, so they're forced to be creative. Poverty leads to creativity. Okay? Another thing in this is that if I were to surmise the future, I would say right now in East Asia, I would think that North Korea has a better future than China. Okay? Just based on history. And you'd be like, that's impossible. North Korea can defeat its own people. Well, I understand that. But if you know game theory, okay, and you understand the principles that we've learned today, then you're forced to conclude that in East Asia, North Korea has a better future than China. Because ultimately, it's about how open, energetic, and cohesive the people are as opposed to how rich and powerful you are.

Okay? Does that make sense? I will also point out, another example. Okay? So, before teaching in high school, I was teaching teachers how to teach STEM. Okay? STEM. Education. And I usually run two day workshops. And what I would do is, I go into a school, and I divide the faculty, the teachers, into teams. Okay? Like teams of like four or five. And there'd be like ten teams. Okay? There'd be a lot of teachers. And the way I teach is, I would give them an assignment. And I would give them resources. And it would be a competition. Okay? So, for example, let's look at which team can build the fastest car. Okay? Toy car. Let's look at which team can build the best airplane. Let's look at which team can build a catapult. Okay? So, I would give them some resources. I'd give them the assignment. And then they would work on it a whole day.

Okay? Now, what's interesting is, at the end of the first day, you would have, I would rank the teams. Okay? And then, number two, and then day two, we would start the competition again with a new assignment. On day two, which team would finish first? Do you guys know? So, after day one, all ten teams are ranked according to their success. Okay? So, team one has the best. Ten team, team ten has the worst. What happened the second day? Can you guys guess?

I think the team ten would,

yeah. Okay. According to game theory, what happens is team ten wins. And this is exactly what happens. The results are reversed. Okay? Number ten shoots up to number one, and then number one falls all the way down. And this is what happens a lot. It's actually common sense if you think about it. Right? If you're the best student in the school, you never have to reflect. You never have to, like, think about how to improve. Because you're always number one. So, you become arrogant. You become complacent. So, after you graduate from school, what happens? You can't find any work, because people find you too arrogant. You refuse to learn. You want to be the boss. You want people to just listen to you. Okay? But if you're the worst student in the school, you're used to being laughed at. You're used to constantly adapting. Okay? So, when you go into the workplace, you are much more likely to learn.

You're much more likely to focus on relationships. Okay? So, in China, there's a joke, right? In school, there are two people that everyone hates. Okay? The best student and the worst student. Why do you hate the best student? Because the best student is going to graduate and come back as your principal one day. Why do you hate the worst student? Because he's going to graduate and come back and give you a lecture on how to become rich. Okay? That's why in China, everyone hates the best student and the worst student. And these are two students who will probably be the most successful. Okay? Especially the worst student. Because the worst student, regardless of all his problems, he's open -minded. He's willing to work hard. And he's willing to help build teams and make sacrifices so that others become his friend. Okay? Right? Yeah? We have a question.

So, like, for example, for this case, in day two, the team 10 becomes the first one and the first team becomes the last. But will the, like, will the, previously the first team be forced to be open and to be energetic and then be number one again on the third day?

That is a great question. Thank you for asking it. Okay? So in my experience, this is what happens. Okay? What happens is that, if, what happens if we keep on going, right? What happens in day three? Day, team, day, day three, day four. Okay? This, this is what happens. Team one, really screws up on day two. Right? They finish first in day one. Day two, they screw up. Day three and day four, they continue to screw up. Why? Because they don't know what they did wrong. And they refuse to, um, reflect. Do you understand? Okay? So we see this in history where an empire, once it rises, it falls, it never comes back. It never comes back. Okay? Do you understand? It never rises up, up again. Now, it's possible that new people come in and use the name the empire. Okay? But it's not the same people anymore. It's a different team. So that's the danger of being number one.

Once you're number one, you become so arrogant that it becomes impossible for you to be humble again. Okay? Um, team two, we go down. Okay? So, it's very, unlikely that you have a system where, okay, uh, team one, they fall, but then they reflect and become number one again. Okay? It doesn't work that way. When societies fall, they just die off. Okay? It's possible a new group comes and pretends to be them, but they're actually a different people. And, and that's just the way that humans work. Okay? Does that make sense? Okay?

Yep. So, on the third day, the team ten will become the second last group because they fall and the nine, the group nine will be the first one? Is that the cycle that will go on?

Um, yeah. So, I've never run on day three, so I can't say for sure. Okay? But, but that, that's what should happen. Okay? Alright? That's what should happen where, yes, team ten will fall off and a new team will come into place. Okay? if you look at history, that's just the way it is. Again, we don't have an example of where an empire fell, but then the people decide to, like, change their, um, their, uh, mentality and then they become the best again. Okay? So, in the future, if, if we apply this theory, there should be three countries that will emerge as great empires in our history. Okay? Germany. Why? Because they lost World War I and lost World War II. So, Germany, according to this theory, will one day come to rule the world. Or at least, Europe and Asia. Okay? And, if you, if you actually look at their history, what happened in World War I, World War II, they lost millions of people.

Okay? So, Germany will, will be one day a great empire. I'm pretty sure of it, actually. And then there's another country that will be a great empire and that is Japan. Because Japan lost World War II. It was never a great empire. So, Japan should come to dominate East Asia. According to this theory. Remember, the Americans dropped two nukes on Japan. Right? And also, if you look at World War II, the Americans destroyed Japan with firebombing. They, the Americans killed more firebombing than they actually did with the nukes. Okay? But Japan was destroyed. It was humiliated. And now, you go to Japan, you can see how energetic people are. Right? You can see how open they are. And you can see how cohesive they are. You understand? Because Japan was destroyed in World War II. It's something that forced them to reflect as a people.

And now, they want vengeance, basically. Alright? And the last country, of course, is Israel. Alright? Because Israel, the people in Israel believed that for thousands of years, they were persecuted by other people. Okay? So, these are three great empires that we will move towards in our history. Germans, Japanese, and the Israelis. Okay? Does that make sense? Alright. How about China? Done. Okay? Alright. Look, look, look, look, guys, guys, I mean, like, like, this is all just a theory, okay? But all I'm saying is, look around you and ask yourself, are the people here open -minded? Are they willing to learn from their mistakes? Do they ever say, I'm wrong? Are people energetic? Do they take their work very seriously? If I give people an assignment, will they work really hard or are they willing to make sacrifices for each other? Okay? Japan is. Okay? That's all I'm saying. And maybe even the North Koreans are.

Alright? Does that make sense, guys? And again, it's all just a theory. Alright? I'm just proposing to you a theory of how to understand the world, but what's actually going to happen, I can't actually tell you. Alright? But according to this theory, Germany, Japan, and Israel will be the three great nations. Okay, any more questions, guys? Yeah? Can you, yeah?

Yeah, but like, for example, Japan, that didn't have that much sources, so how could they succeed?

I keep on telling you guys, you don't need resources. You can cheat. You can steal. You can beg. Alright? Okay? Does that make sense?

Yeah, yeah.

Okay? Like, if you just go back to the World Game, whichever team starts off with the least resources are often the most creative in the media. Okay? When I mean creative, they'll just like go and like lie to people. Says, you know, like, I'll come work for you for free, but then you steal some resources yourself. Okay? Alright? Because there's actually no choice in the matter. Alright? Yeah?

Yeah, so I have a little questions. Like, you say that those who are poorest and like in the most dangerous positions always have the most energy and cohesion to succeed, but I think eventually,

so, okay, okay, let me be precise, okay? Yeah. Just because you're poor does not mean you're open, energetic, and cohesive, okay? Does not mean that. Yeah. But if you want to go from being poor to becoming rich, you have to be open, energetic, and cohesive. Does that make sense? Yeah. Because in Africa, they're poor, but it doesn't mean they're open, energetic, and cohesive.

Yeah, so my question is, like, after they become successful and they're eventually rich, I think, like, like all society, they may fall as, like, when they reach their highest state, right? Yes. Yeah. And so, my question is, like, you say that, like, Japan or Germany will eventually become the, like, the leader of the, of the, of the, like, regions. Regions. Yeah. But, like, I understand that after World War, World War II, that Japan and Germany really developed very fast, but, like, now they are all wealthy societies. Yeah. And also, they're young, they're younger, the new, like, people in their country forget about the war and they, well, when they're born, they're born in the wealthy and, like, happy, happy societies. So how can you make sure that the, the society, those societies will continue to cohesion and develop, but not, like, just to fail, like, other rich societies?

Okay, you know, that's a good question. That's a great point, okay? You're absolutely right. Because after World War II, Japan and Germany became very wealthy. So if they become very wealthy, then in theory, shouldn't they become also corrupt, insular, and arrogant? And the answer is no, okay? And there's a good reason why. Because ultimately, power means that you're able to impose your game on other people. You're able to make other people play your game and therefore, you're able to extract rent from other people. Okay? And that's what, that's what these secret societies are fighting for. They're fighting for power, who becomes the game master. The problem with Japan and Germany is, yes, they became very wealthy, but the game master was America. And ultimately, America decided that their money belongs to me, okay? So an example of this is something called the Plastic Accords, okay? Plastic Accords. Basically, the Plastic Accords just meant that Japan

was becoming too wealthy, America got very annoyed, so America said to Japan, I want you to destroy your economy. And Japan is like, how? America just says, just says, I want you to spend too much money. I want you to stop saving money and start spending money. Go overseas and buy whatever crap you want, okay? You understand? So in theory, it seemed as though Japan got rich, but Japan got rich, but it never had any power. It could not be a sovereign nation, okay? Power means that you're able to impose your will on other people. Same thing with Germany, where, yes, Germany became very wealthy, but all that money went where? It went to America, right? Same with Japan. Japan, all that money went to America. How? Because they were forced by U.S. Treasury bonds, okay? And then America could do stuff to you. For example, America could force Japan to sign a plastic war and force Japan to destroy its own economy.

America could also destroy Germany's pipeline, North Street, and there's nothing Germany can do about it, okay? In fact, the Germany economy has been destroyed right now because Germany is a vassal state when Russia invaded Ukraine, America just basically said to Germany, you can no longer do business deals with Russia. But before, Germany required Russian oil and energy to fuel its economy, okay? America also said to Germany, you can no longer trade with China. But before, most of German car exports were going to China, right? And because Germany was forced out of the China market, China was able to develop okay? Does that make sense? So it seems as though Germany and Japan became very wealthy. They were not. They were just vassal states to America, okay? Does that make sense? Yeah. So I have a further question.

So, like you said, that only those society who are very poor, but they want to, they have the ability to cohe, to cohesions and be energetic and they can, they can like eventually become the ruler of the regions. But what decide the society or a poor society to become energetic cohesions or not? Like why Japan or German have that energy but like those other countries that may also like be defeated in the war or as very poor cannot? Yeah,

that's a great question. Yeah. So the answer, the obvious answer is a leader, okay? So you look at the Mongols, right? The Mongols before the emergence of Genghis Khan, the Mongols were almost like a vassal state, right? Because the Mongols were divided, they were poor, they were willing to do whatever it took to survive and so they became mercenaries to the Song, they became mercenaries to other groups as well, okay? But then emerged Genghis Khan to unify everyone and once he was able to unify everyone, the Mongols were very quickly able to destroy everyone else, okay? So it's usually a great leader but leader doesn't necessarily mean a general, it could also mean a poet, right? So, someone like Homer or a great thinker to give you a new religion, okay? So, for example, the person who had someone called Zoroastria who we studied last semester, okay? Even Jesus, okay? But someone would come in

to say that we are a people and it could be a poet, it could be a general, it could be a prophet, a priest, doesn't matter, okay? But that one person then unifies the imagination of everyone into one cohesive group, okay? Does that make sense? But that's a great question, thank you, okay? And that's why certain groups are able to cohere together and other groups are not because one person is able to emerge. And you know, that's why, okay, we'll talk about this later on, but that's why the world is the way it is. Why do we have organizations like the United Nations? Why do we have international development aid? The goal, guys, is to identify the possibility of a leader emerging and make sure he does not emerge, you understand? Okay? If you left Africa alone, Africa would be a lot better but because you have NGOs, all these organizations in Africa, what they're really doing is ensuring that Africa is in a continuous state of development, okay?

If you just left them alone, they might starve but at the same time, a great leader might emerge to unite all of them, you understand? Okay? But we'll talk about this next class, how the American empire controls the world.