diagnosis
Jiang argues that the American workaround for Hormuz effectively enriched Iran by unsanctioning Iranian oil, giving Iran more money than its annual military budget.
Topic brief
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Sanctions
Jiang argues that the American workaround for Hormuz effectively enriched Iran by unsanctioning Iranian oil, giving Iran more money than its annual military budget.
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Key Notes
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He says the war has delivered Iran de facto sanctions relief and made continued war economically beneficial to Iran.
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Jiang says Iran differs from Venezuela because decades of sanctions have made the Iranian elite unified against the United States, with little to lose by fighting.
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He argues that targeted sanctions on Russian business elites removed their Western option and unified them around Putin, whereas broad U.S. pressure on China allegedly leaves Chinese business elites able to resist Xi Jinping.
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Jiang argues that Western expectations in February 2022 were that Ukraine would defeat Russia, sanctions would destroy the Russian economy, and the war would strengthen NATO and isolate Russia.
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Jiang argues that sanctions have not worked because Russia has oil and food that other economies still need, while Russia has also shifted toward a war economy.
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Jiang says the IRGC's monopoly of power and control of a large share of the economy produced corruption and economic stagnation, alongside the effects of Western sanctions.
Timestamped Evidence
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"Plan across the administration and a treasury. We unsanctioned Russian oil. We knew that there were about 130 million barrels on the water. And..."
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"Okay. So this is the Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Besson. He's responding to a problem, which is the Americans didn't expect that the..."
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"So the Americans were like, We'll just make them rich so they can't destroy the global economy. We got them now. All right."
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"...did have lots of resources. Oil resources. But the Americans put sanctions on these oil exports. This war has basically lifted all sanctions. Okay?..."
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"...Trump and Israel's war has ended up delivering Iran de facto sanctions relief. Before the war Iran was cut off from the global economy...."
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"Okay. Look. The strategy in the beginning was to do a Venezuela in Iran, meaning you go in, you kill a leader, a new..."
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"Second example are these American sanctions against Russia, specifically targeting Russian business people with close ties to the Putin regime, which is basically every..."
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"And that's where they like to have their second homes. And we know this because of what's happening in China. So there is a..."
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"...long -term American interests. That's not been true in Russia. The sanctions against Putin's, Putin's regime and the oligarchical interests in Russia has unified..."
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"And that's what's causing the nation to fall apart, okay? So the more over -committed America is, the more debt it creates, and the..."
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"...the Russian economy would be destroyed. Why? Because America was imposing sanctions on Russia. So America, because it controls the global financial system, the..."
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"it would make Russia into a pariah state, meaning that no one would want to ever associate with Russia again, okay? So that was..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
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The apparent U.S.-Iran war is recast as an imperial succession crisis.
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A source-grounded reading of Jiang’s law of escalation: the actor with the biggest weapon can still lose if the weaker actor has calibration, legitimacy, options, and a way to make the bully destroy himself.
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The episode begins with two escalations: Ukraine expands, Iran heats up.
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A source-grounded reading of the lecture's central move: the crash was probably an accident, but if it was not, Jiang asks who had opportunity, motive, and the most to gain.
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