model
He argues economic strangulation of Iran would focus on oil exports, Kharg Island, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and expanding the battlefield to ethnic minority regions.
Topic brief
A Jiang Lens evidence brief for this topic, built from source tags, transcript matches, and linked source refs.
OIL
He argues economic strangulation of Iran would focus on oil exports, Kharg Island, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and expanding the battlefield to ethnic minority regions.
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Key Notes
evidence
The Rick Scott clip is used to show Jiang's claim that U.S. elites can accept failure in Iran if the war cuts China off from Middle Eastern oil.
diagnosis
Jiang says the strategic objective can be to hurt China even if the Iran campaign itself looks unsuccessful for the United States.
method
He says repeated oil refinery fires around the world should be read through the question of who has means, motive, and opportunity to benefit from reducing global oil supply.
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diagnosis
Jiang says the global oil fires are probably deliberate acts to reduce world oil supply, with Russia and America as the actors most likely to have means, motive, and opportunity.
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evidence
Jiang says East Asia and Europe are heavily dependent on Middle East oil, with the world drawing about 20 percent of oil from the Middle East and Japan drawing about 75 percent from there.
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model
If Middle East resource flow is disrupted, Jiang argues, the world does not run out of oil in absolute terms; it becomes more dependent on Canada, Venezuela, the United States, North America, and Russia.
prediction
Jiang argues that a Middle East war would knock out oil production from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait, leaving Venezuela, Canada, the United States, North America, and Russia as key suppliers.
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Timestamped Evidence
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"...income for to finance this war the first is to sell oil okay and this is karg island which is their main depot okay..."
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"moves and they collect tolls on that okay so i basically need to destroy Iran's control of the cervical moves the way i do..."
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"is forced to deal with multiple threats at the same time i'm going to collapse their economy all right okay so this is what..."
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"Okay. So does that make sense? It is wrong for the United States to do this. the world to be pirates and to see..."
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"in Iran which is sort of in a ceasefire right now how do you feel like this is going should the u.s. wrap this..."
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"...here moves is fine for my standpoint if not if no oil ever goes to China again and their economy is destroyed that would..."
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"...if the end result is that China no longer gets any oil from the Middle East and the economy is destroyed it's worth it..."
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"...have been at least 45 recorded incidents around the world of oil firemen being set on fire okay so iran was bombed by the..."
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"...um are being deliberately set in order to reduce the world's oil supply and the people who can do this the people benefit from..."
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"20 % of its oil from the Middle East. Okay. Partly going to East Asia. So India gets about 6 % of its oil..."
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"...All right. So, Okay. We know that there's a lot of oil in the Middle East. But oil is not as rare as people..."
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"...And look at this. And look, Canada has a lot of oil and Trump is threatening to take over Canada, okay? So now let's..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
Reading
A source-grounded reading of the nation-state as war machine: Rousseau turns liberty into sovereignty, Fichte turns language into blood, Bismarck turns welfare into war infrastructure, Mussolini turns myth into death, and 21st-century war turns...
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A source-grounded reading of the lecture's central reversal: if Trump's goal is to preserve the old American empire, the Iran war looks insane.
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The apparent U.S.-Iran war is recast as an imperial succession crisis.
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Fukuyama's end of history becomes, in this lecture, a temporary American spell: Pax Americana, science-priesthood, and dollar worship.
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A source-grounded reading of Jiang’s law of escalation: the actor with the biggest weapon can still lose if the weaker actor has calibration, legitimacy, options, and a way to make the bully destroy himself.
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A source-grounded reading of Jiang's lecture on America as the world game: Britain invents the imperial board but cannot scale it, the dollar turns wealth into an idea, the Constitution keeps the game above...
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Related Topics
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