Glossary
Jiang's method of floating speculative theories and judging them by whether their predictions about future events are borne out.
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Topic brief
A Jiang Lens evidence brief for this topic, built from source tags, transcript matches, and linked source refs.
predictive modeling
A transcript-matched topic anchored by excerpts such as "...this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm going to throw some theories out there. And..."
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Topic Scope And Freshness
A transcript-matched topic anchored by excerpts such as "...this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm going to throw some theories out there. And..."
Key Notes
definition
Jiang defends speculative predictive modeling by arguing that if a controversial theory yields correct predictions, that predictive success grants the theory at least provisional legitimacy.
Timestamped Evidence
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"...this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm going to throw some theories out there. And..."
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"Christian Zionists are heavily embedded in the national security apparatus and in the Pentagon. There's reporting that US commanders have told their troops that..."
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"...the past two years, I've been developing a new system of predictive modeling where I take game theory and I make predictions about how..."
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"When I do predictive modeling, I'm looking at different theories. And when these different theories converge together, I can make a pretty accurate prediction...."
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"...united nations okay and that's fine maybe some of you are modeling united nations and that's a good activity but everyone was doing it..."
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"...otherwise, we cannot explain these statistical inconsistencies in our measurements and modeling. And then, of course, you're like, well, why don't you just say..."
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"...overproduction of the elite. And he discovered this principle using mathematically modeling of history. Okay? He just compared different societies and tried to figure..."
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"...given this prediction, what we can then do is use mathematical modeling and statistics to turn this into an AI model. Does that make..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
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Redacted asks Jiang whether the Iran war is already out of control.
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Piers brings Jiang on because two earlier predictions already landed and a third appears to be unfolding: Trump won, war with Iran came, and now the question is whether America can survive the kind...
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School says it teaches literacy, competence, creativity, and lifelong learning.
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A source-grounded reading of Jiang's attack on the scientific worldview: Big Bang, evolution, neuroscience, school, and transhumanism become parts of one material story that forgets divinity, fears death, and lets power reinvent reality.
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The final class turns collapse into an assignment: build a democratic psychohistory that can model war, correct history, answer great-man edge cases, and still preserve the human heart that wants to love, create, learn,...
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