Glossary
Jiang's method of floating speculative theories and judging them by whether their predictions about future events are borne out.
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Topic brief
A Jiang Lens evidence brief for this topic, built from source tags, transcript matches, and linked source refs.
predictive modeling
A transcript-matched topic anchored by excerpts such as "...this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm going to throw some theories out there. And..."
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Topic Scope And Freshness
A transcript-matched topic anchored by excerpts such as "...this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm going to throw some theories out there. And..."
Key Notes
definition
Jiang defends speculative predictive modeling by arguing that if a controversial theory yields correct predictions, that predictive success grants the theory at least provisional legitimacy.
Timestamped Evidence
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"...this sort of argument and thinking. So what I do is predictive modeling, meaning that I'm going to throw some theories out there. And..."
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"Christian Zionists are heavily embedded in the national security apparatus and in the Pentagon. There's reporting that US commanders have told their troops that..."
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"...the past two years, I've been developing a new system of predictive modeling where I take game theory and I make predictions about how..."
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"When I do predictive modeling, I'm looking at different theories. And when these different theories converge together, I can make a pretty accurate prediction...."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
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Redacted asks Jiang whether the Iran war is already out of control.
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Piers brings Jiang on because two earlier predictions already landed and a third appears to be unfolding: Trump won, war with Iran came, and now the question is whether America can survive the kind...
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