Glossary
Using predictions to see whether the power model has accuracy, then refining it if events do or do not fit.
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Topic brief
A Jiang Lens evidence brief for this topic, built from source tags, transcript matches, and linked source refs.
model testing
A transcript-matched topic anchored by excerpts such as "OK, so I basically start to talk more about geopolitics and I start to do a lot of research and I start to ask..."
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Topic Scope And Freshness
A transcript-matched topic anchored by excerpts such as "OK, so I basically start to talk more about geopolitics and I start to do a lot of research and I start to ask..."
Key Notes
definition
The course is not meant to dictate conclusions but to augment imagination so students can build and test better models of reality.
model
Jiang says the three predictions capture the essence of Alexander's life, but he also instructs the class to be skeptical and ask whether the model's prejudice may make them unfair to Alexander.
model
He says a war-cause model can be refined by testing it against historical cases such as the Sicilian expedition and Operation Barbarossa.
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definition
Jiang defines Predictive History as a way to create models that are tested by predictions which can validate or invalidate the model.
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Timestamped Evidence
Transcript
"OK, so I basically start to talk more about geopolitics and I start to do a lot of research and I start to ask..."
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"Thank you very much. Okay. But I'm trying to explain to you how power works. That's the theme of this course. I'm trying to..."
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"We perceive the world, we perceive the Nomana and turn it into the Phenomena for us to process in other words, and this is..."
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"We will not succeed. We will fail. But the process of trying will train our minds to think much more critically about reality. About..."
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"and try to reason with him, he will see you as a threat, as disloyal, and as an enemy who must be eliminated, okay?..."
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"Alexander the Great, and we're gonna see that on the surface, it does actually capture well, or explains well. What is his life? At..."
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"Now that we have the AI model, what we need to do now is to refine it. And the way we refine it is..."
Relevant Lectures And Readings
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Societies do not fall because one problem gets worse in a straight line.
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Reading
The first Secret History class starts with Kant and ends with alchemy.
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A source-grounded reading of Alexander as the inheriting son: expansionist, obedience-hungry, and unable to hear correction except as betrayal.
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The final class turns collapse into an assignment: build a democratic psychohistory that can model war, correct history, answer great-man edge cases, and still preserve the human heart that wants to love, create, learn,...
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