Glossary
A way to model politics as self-interested players optimizing strategies rather than as moral good and evil.
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Topic brief
A Jiang Lens evidence brief for this topic, built from source tags, transcript matches, and linked source refs.
game theory analysis
A way to model politics as self-interested players optimizing strategies rather than as moral good and evil.
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Key Notes
Glossary
Reasoning from the incentives of rational actors to explain why they might produce a seemingly irrational trap.
Glossary
Jiang's label for reasoning through possible actors, motives, opportunities, and payoffs when direct evidence is limited.
Timestamped Evidence
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"...the ideas behind this model? Okay? So we talk about game theory analysis a lot. All right? And the idea of game theory analysis..."
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"...provide evidence that this is true. Okay? The first is historical analysis. Historical analysis means that are there historical examples like this? Okay? Are..."
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"All right? So, we'll first do historical analysis to find historical analogs, examples, sort of similar to this. And then we'll look at game..."
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"...die? Okay, so when you do history or when you do analysis about current events, you're always going to encounter three major problems, okay?..."
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"...the cost that will go down in history, okay? But game theory analysis requires us to explore other possibilities. So there are two other..."
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"...to make three predictions, and then I will show you my analysis as to how I make these predictions, okay? Now, what's important to..."
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"...is spend the next two classes explaining to you my game theory analysis as to how I come to these conclusions. And we can..."
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"...this class, what I'm doing is I'm providing you the game theory analysis for you to understand what's happening and why it's happening and..."
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"...okay, why are we suicidal? And, so, let's look at game theory analysis. Right? The players, the rules, and incentives."
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"...come from? Okay, so if you just do some basic game theory analysis, he's clearly a spy, okay? Clearly a spy. He's an agent..."
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"...it would be a catastrophe. Okay so let's do some game theory analysis. In game theory we look at it we look at the..."
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"...class usually, but just look at it just analytically, using game theory analysis. Then you have to conclude that Stalin was the only one..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
Reading
The final class turns collapse into an assignment: build a democratic psychohistory that can model war, correct history, answer great-man edge cases, and still preserve the human heart that wants to love, create, learn,...
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A source-grounded reading of the lecture's central claim: the Iran war that looks like American domination is the moment the United States becomes trapped, because geography, supply, domestic politics, sunk cost, and nuclear deterrence...
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A source-grounded reading of the lecture's central move: the crash was probably an accident, but if it was not, Jiang asks who had opportunity, motive, and the most to gain.
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