prediction
Jiang predicts Trump's plan to stay in power is to cheat, rig elections, and probably get away with it.
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Topic brief
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Authoritarianism
Collapse is sudden rather than gradual because authoritarian societies cannot survive a perfect storm of crises when criticism is forbidden.
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Key Notes
model
Collapse is sudden rather than gradual because authoritarian societies cannot survive a perfect storm of crises when criticism is forbidden.
prediction
Jiang predicts that over the next five to twenty years the Western world will see declining democracy and freedom, with the United States and Europe becoming more authoritarian.
Timestamped Evidence
Transcript
"Yeah. So first of all, Democrats have no plan. This is why America is in so much trouble because the Democrats have actually no..."
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"So, in the rise phase, what matters first and foremost is unity of the people. We're all working together. There's empathy. There's concern for..."
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"We'll still be here. But, actually, the collapse happens really fast. Why? The reason why is this system cannot survive external shocks. So, external..."
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"In the rise phase, those who criticize society are the heroes. They are appreciated. They are rewarded. In the collapse phase, those who speak..."
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"So, remember, in the rise phase, society is democratic and open and meritocratic. But as you move on, it becomes more bureaucratic and ultimately..."
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"Okay? Let's replace our population. But the people are not going to sit back and take it. Right? This leads to civil war. People..."
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"...did they get it wrong. But they tried to, they embraced authoritarianism to shut other people up like me, who were just asking questions..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
Reading
Societies do not fall because one problem gets worse in a straight line.
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