model
The interviewer summarizes Jiang's view that people mistake eschatology for crazy religion when it is also a compressed way of remembering historical patterns.
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A Jiang Lens evidence brief for this topic, built from source tags, transcript matches, and linked source refs.
Predictive Validity
A transcript-matched topic anchored by excerpts such as "...question in terms of I think you believe that it has predictive validity and that people are getting lost in the religion of it..."
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"...question in terms of I think you believe that it has predictive validity and that people are getting lost in the religion of it..."
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"Yeah, yeah, yeah, sure. So something to keep in mind is that for most of human history, we've kept history, the lessons of history,..."
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"...fringe theory, and how much of this you actually think has predictive validity."
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"...to the whole thing, but it would be the lowest in predictive validity. So I'm very"
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"curious if you think that has equal predictive validity to the other two things you walked us through, game theory, historical precedent. Is this..."
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