Glossary
The testable implications embedded in a speculative hypothesis, used to judge whether the model is correct.
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Topic brief
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prediction model
The testable implications embedded in a speculative hypothesis, used to judge whether the model is correct.
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Key Notes
model
He explicitly marks the Putin explanation as a speculative hypothesis, not certain knowledge, and says its value lies in the predictions it generates.
prediction
He gives three predictions for testing the hypothesis: the war shifts to Odessa, Russia and China fall out, and Russia comes to Iran's aid.
Timestamped Evidence
Transcript
"...is that with any hypothesis, there is embedded in it a prediction model. So I'm going to explain to you the hypothesis. And then..."
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"How is it that this nobody, this man who came from a lower middle class family in St. Petersburg, and he was an unknown..."
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"The hypothesis is that during the time of Stalin, a secret nexus of power between the Orthodox Church and the KGB came into being..."
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"That's where the final battle between NATO and Russia will take place. Turkey will be brought into this war. Once Turkey enters this war,..."
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"Eventually, they'll be falling out, okay? And we'll see this happen very quickly. And the third prediction is that Russia will defend Iran. It..."
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"...about. So, I make these predictions in order to validate my prediction model. But just because these predictions don't work. Turn out to be..."
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"...we have to take a very skeptical attitude. We have this prediction model. We're gonna use it, we're gonna apply it to"
Relevant Lectures And Readings
Reading
The episode begins with two escalations: Ukraine expands, Iran heats up.
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