model
Predictions help validate a model, but correct predictions do not prove causation, and Jiang says fame has reduced his objectivity because his statements can affect events.
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Causation
Predictions help validate a model, but correct predictions do not prove causation, and Jiang says fame has reduced his objectivity because his statements can affect events.
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Key Notes
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Jiang warns that observing the predicted escalation would not prove that the IRGC killed Raisi; the indicators would fit the hypothesis but would not establish causation.
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Timestamped Evidence
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"So, we just live in the world imagined by occultists. Who they are, what they want, how they work is something that we'll discuss..."
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"How do you differentiate between causation and correlation? Okay. This is a great question. And it's something that I think a lot about. So,..."
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"And also, by the way. Just because these things might happen. Does not mean that. Raisi was killed by the Revolutionary Guard Corp. Okay?..."
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"...an impossible thing. So, I appreciate this question. Yes. Correlation and causation are two different things altogether. It's possible that we'll never really understand..."
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"...for you guys to remember, is that correlation does not equal causation."
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"...it's really important to understand that correlation does not necessarily mean causation okay so that that's a caveat no matter how well we predict..."
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"...But the question then is, is this correlation or is this causation? Okay? Do you guys understand? Right? Because scientists will... Well, scholars will..."
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"Okay? That's a causation. I... But some other scholars argue it is correlation, and the reason why is that Mayans are really famous for..."
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"...he didn't know why the correlation existed. He couldn't solve the causation problem, okay? There's just no way that God would spend his time......"
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"...At his time, he was mainly known for figuring out the causation process. The causation of the problem in space, okay? And what... And..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
Reading
The midterm turns a ceasefire into a world model: history moves like a river, eschatology makes prophecy into a plan, and the people who survive collapse are not the ones with the best machines...
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A source-grounded reading of the lecture's central move: the crash was probably an accident, but if it was not, Jiang asks who had opportunity, motive, and the most to gain.
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