definition
Jiang's second/third geopolitics rule here is that weak players do not work well together and must ally with strong powers for protection.
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Topic brief
A Jiang Lens evidence brief for this topic, built from source tags, transcript matches, and linked source refs.
Alliances
Geopolitics in the new world will be constantly in flux, making fixed enemy/alliance categories unreliable.
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Key Notes
model
Geopolitics in the new world will be constantly in flux, making fixed enemy/alliance categories unreliable.
prediction
In East Asia, Jiang says an initial coalition of Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, the United States, and Russia might form to contain China, but could later shift to contain Japan as Japan rises.
model
The new kid creates rebellion because other students and even the bully’s allies begin to see alternative alliances once someone refuses the cafeteria rules.
model
Optimal strategy changes with circumstance, especially when alliances, multiple actors, external constraints, weapons, and weather alter the game.
diagnosis
For most of human history, Jiang argues, people did not use modern categories of race, culture, ethnicity, borders, and states; Viking identity was fluid and alliance-based.
model
Jiang argues that Philip's smart diplomacy was as important as military strength because it bought time, exploited Greek rivalries, built alliances, and deceived enemies.
model
Thebes also treated Philip well as a strategy of alliance-building: weaker nations could be bound by indoctrinating their future leaders, but Philip had other intentions.
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Timestamped Evidence
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"If they were to combine their resources and fight together they could probably beat Israel or probably beat Iran. The problem with this is..."
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"...Meaning you cannot easily divide nation -states into enemies anymore. Their alliances will constantly shift over time. And the nation -state system will also..."
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"So let's combine against Japan. Okay? It's a dynamic situation. But basically, what you have to understand is that everything that you've been taught..."
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"...And different people are talking to him and trying to form alliances with him. But what he does, and it's really interesting, is that..."
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"Okay? And then one day, the bully's friend comes over and says, You know what? You're a whip. And the new kid finally says,..."
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"...have multiple players in the game, you have to think about alliances and coordination."
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"Okay? So it's possible that A and D will form an alliance to attack B, which will force B and C to form an..."
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"They all come from the same cultural origin which is the Proto -Indo -European culture, right? What's interesting is that as they came into..."
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"...fluid. So if you're a tribe and you want to switch alliances you could do so and no one could stop you. Okay? So..."
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"He would give speeches explaining his vision. Right? He wanted to make Macedon great. He wanted Macedon to conquer Greece and then conquer Persia...."
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"...along. So what Philip could do was use diplomacy to build alliances against other enemies. Okay? So he was using diplomacy a lot in..."
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"Do you understand? Everyone thinks in East Asia, the major powers are China and Japan. And everyone thinks North Korea is a complete joke...."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
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The apparent U.S.-Iran war is recast as an imperial succession crisis.
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Fukuyama's end of history becomes, in this lecture, a temporary American spell: Pax Americana, science-priesthood, and dollar worship.
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A source-grounded reading of Jiang’s law of escalation: the actor with the biggest weapon can still lose if the weaker actor has calibration, legitimacy, options, and a way to make the bully destroy himself.
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Genghis Khan is not explained by saying the Mongols were uniquely evil.
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Greek culture did not spread because everyone recognized its beauty.
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Iran's missile strike is read not as a failed attack, but as a demonstration of asymmetrical strategy: choose the battlefield, satisfy four goals at once, and make the dominant power fight on terms it...
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