Jiang predicts that if the United States launches a ground invasion of Iran, the war will escalate quickly and trap the United States for five to ten years, making the loss catastrophic whether it wins or loses.
Topic brief
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U.s. Iran WAR
Jiang identifies four major players in the war: the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.
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Key Notes
Jiang identifies four major players in the war: the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.
Jiang closes by predicting that within the next year or two the United States will send ground troops if it wants to win or continue the war.
Jiang predicts that the United States will lose the U.S.-Iran war and frames the law of asymmetry as the theoretical reason why a much stronger power can lose to an underdog.
Timestamped Evidence
"We continue our analysis of the U.S.-Iran war. And in this war, there are three major questions that will determine the outcome of this..."
"You don't have a choice in the matter, right? Because again, your cheapest product are soldiers, right? And the most expensive are airplanes. You..."
"You have U.S., you have Israel, you have Saudi Arabia, and you have Iran, okay? All right, so the United States and Iran, they're..."
"Okay? Again, the three big predictions I make, and we'll know in the next year or two if these three things happen or not,..."
"We continue our discussion of the U.S.-Iran war that is happening right now. So, as you know, I made the prediction that the United..."
"there is a ceasefire now between iran and united states but most analysts expect that this war will resume in a week two weeks..."
"So, we just live in the world imagined by occultists. Who they are, what they want, how they work is something that we'll discuss..."
"Hmm. They created all these wars in Europe. They enslaved the Indian population and destroyed their economy and stole trillions of dollars from them...."
"Okay, so this is a rabbi in Israel, and he's saying how last year during the 12 -day war in June, Iran was firing..."
"why you threw that punch in a certain way to the police so that you don't go to jail. Okay? Alright, so another way..."
"And so in my next video, I will reveal to you the religious dimensions of this war. OK. Some other points before I conclude..."
Relevant Lectures And Readings
A source-grounded reading of Jiang’s law of escalation: the actor with the biggest weapon can still lose if the weaker actor has calibration, legitimacy, options, and a way to make the bully destroy himself.
The law of asymmetry says the obvious winner may be the side structurally set up to lose.
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