forecast
He quantifies the economic fragility claim with a 10-20% energy decline interpreted as a near-depression magnitude decline in GDP.
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Macroeconomic Forecast
He quantifies the economic fragility claim with a 10-20% energy decline interpreted as a near-depression magnitude decline in GDP.
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"Quite literally, when you look at the data, a 10 % fall in energy means a 10 % fall in GDP. That's as big..."
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Relevant Lectures And Readings
Reading
Jiang reframes Hormuz disruption as a production-system collapse and argues that escalation incentives make the Iran conflict a political-economic choke point beyond price shocks.
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